S p r i n g 1 9 9 8
91
trends
Population
In this issue
In brief
Migration between Mediterranean basin and EU countries, British Society of Population
Studies celebrates the Bicentenary of Malthus’ First Essay, Subnational population
projections for Scotland and Who becomes a lone mother?
1
Recent ONS publications
3
Updates and demographic indicators
4
One-parent families and their dependent children
This analyses a number of aspects of lone parenthood, including the most recent estimates of
one-parent families and their dependent children
John Haskey
5
Mortality of migrants from outside England and Wales by marital status
Investigates the differences in mortality patterns by country of birth, marital status and
cause of death
Roy Maxwell and Seeromanie Harding
15
Differences in urban and rural Britain
Presents the socio-demographic characteristics and distributions of urban and rural population
in Great Britain using data from 1991 Census
Chris Denham and Ian White
23
Research implications of improvements in access to the ONS Longitudinal Study
Outlines significant changes in the way the ONS Longitudinal Study data are stored,
accessed and analysed, and assesses the implications for future research methods
Michael Rosato, Seeromanie Harding, Elspeth McVey and Joanna Brown
35
1996-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and
constituent countries
Summarises the UK national population projections to the year 2021
Chris Shaw
43
Tables
List of tables
Tables 1-24
Notes to tables
51
52
78
Contact points at ONS
80
London: The Stationery Office
A publication of
the Government
Statistical Service
© Crown copyright 1998. Published with the permission of the Office for
National Statistics on behalf of the Controller of HMSO.
ISBN 0 11 620969 0
ISSN 0307-4436
Population Trends
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Population Trends is a journal of the Office for National Statistics. It is
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9 1
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S p r i n g
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P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
in brief
Migration between
Mediterranean basin
and EU countries
Figure 1
Austria Other
Belgium
Netherlands
France
Figures recently published by Eurostat show that 1.3 per cent of the European Union
(EU) population are citizens of a Mediterranean country (as defined in Box 1.)
On 1 January 1995, the EU had a population of
370 million, 5 million of which were citizens of
a Mediterranean country.These represent 28
per cent of all non-nationals residing in the EU
member states. The majority of the 5 million
Mediterranean citizens were concentrated in
two EU countries; Germany (46 per cent of the
total) and France (34 per cent). Less than 2 per
cent were resident in the UK (see Figure 1.)
The proportion of all non-nationals in a
country who were Mediterranean citizens is
highest in the Netherlands (47 per cent) and in
France (45 per cent). In Germany, the figure is
only 32 per cent because of the large number
of citizens of Central European countries. In
the UK, Mediterranean citizens constituted 4
per cent of non-nationals (or 0.14 per cent of
the total population).
Box 1
Mediterranean countries
Mediterranean countries are defined as
follows: Algeria, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel,
Jordan, Lebanon, Malta, Morocco,
Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey.
Mediterranean citizens in EU
Member states, 1 January 1995
Germany
(100% = 4.8 million)
1995 – immigrants
During 1995, Germany, France, Netherlands ,
Belgium, the UK and Italy received more than
90 per cent of the 152 thousand
Mediterranean citizens emigrating to the EU.
Nearly 60 per cent of them went to
Germany (91 thousand) and just under 6 per
cent (8 thousand) to the UK (see Figure 2.)
Figure 2
Mediterranean immigrants to
EU Member States, 1995
Belgium
UK
Other
Netherlands
France
Italy
1986–95 – immigrants
In the longer term, from 1986 to 1995, nearly
50 per cent of all Mediterranean immigrants
went to Germany. If France, Netherlands and
Italy are included the percentage is nearly 90
per cent. The figure for Belgium is 4 per cent,
and 2 per cent for the UK and Sweden.
During the 10 year period, nearly 1 million
Turks immigrated to the EU, the vast majority
(77 per cent) went to Germany, followed by
Netherlands (10 per cent) and France (6 per
cent). The next largest group were Moroccans
with 350,000 immigrating to the EU from
1986-95, mainly to France (116,000) but also
to Netherlands (73,000), Italy (59,000) and
Germany (48,000) (see Figure 3).
For more information contact Thana
Chrissanthaki, Directorate E, Eurostat, Jean
Monnet Building, rue Alcide de Gasperi,
Luxembourg - Kirchberg. Tel: 00 352
430132087, Fax: 00 352 4301 34029.
O f f i c e
f o r
Germany
(100% = 152 thousand)
Figure 3
Immigration by citizenship
1986–95
Turkey
Morocco
Algeria
Lebanon
Tunisia
Egypt
Israel
Syria
Jordan
Cyprus
Malta
0
N a t i o n a l
200
400
600 800 1,000 1,200
Thousands
S t a t i s t i c s
1
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1
B. S. P. S. celebrates
the Bicentenary of
Malthus’ First Essay
During the latter half of the eighteenth
century, fear that measurement of the
population might reveal weaknesses particularly on an inability to mobilise
adequate military resources - gave rise to
fear that the population could be increasing
more rapidly than the means to feed it. The
work of Thomas Malthus on population and
subsistence, of which the first edition was
published anonymously in 1798, was very
relevant to the problems of a period when
great dearth prevailed in the country, and
Parliament was largely occupied in
discussing ‘the present high price of
provisions’. These changed circumstances
were the spur to the first Census of
Population held in 1801.
The Annual Conference of the British Society
of Population Studies will be celebrating the
bicentenary of Malthus’ First Essay. It will be
held at Corpus Christi College, Cambridge
from 2 - 4 September 1998.
Registration forms and further information are
available from: BSPS, Room Y.203, London School
of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A
2AW, tel: 0171 955 7958/7666; fax 0171 955 6381;
E-mail pic@.ac.uk
Subnational
population
projections for
Scotland
The total population of Scotland is projected
to fall from 5.128 million in 1996 to 5.048
million in 2013. The latest subnational
population projections for Scotland have been
recently published by the Registrar General
for Scotland.1 The information, which is
consistent with the national population
projections prepared by the Government
Actuary’s Department (see article on page
43,) gives the projected population to the year
2013 for the council and health board areas of
Scotland, by age and sex.
2
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The projections also show that between 1996
and 2013:
•
•
within Scotland, Lothian and Highland
health board areas show the greatest
projected increases in population (both +4
per cent). And the Western Isles (-8 per
cent) and Greater Glasgow (-7 per cent)
health board areas show the largest
projected decreases.
amongst the council areas, West Lothian
(+11 per cent), Aberdeenshire (+8 per
cent) and Stirling (+7 per cent) have the
largest projected gains. Inverclyde has the
sharpest projected decrease at 18 per
cent, with East Ayreshire and Glasgow
City both showing projected decreases of
10 per cent.
Further information is available from the
General Register Office for Scotland,Tel: 0131
314 4254.
1
Population projections, Scotland (1996-based).
Who becomes a
lone mother?
Current work using ONS Longitudinal Study
(LS) data examines the mortality of infants of
lone mothers. In the LS it is possible to
examine the relative importance of early life
factors and adult circumstances on mortality
differentials. The notion of cumulative
exposure to risk as an explanation for
variations in health is becoming increasingly
important to policy.1 Some preliminary
findings are presented here by S Harding, M
Table 1
Details about the LS can be found in Research
implications of improvements in access to the
ONS Longitudinal Study (see article on page
35). LS females aged 15 years and under and
who were living with their parents at the
1971 Census were followed up until the birth
of their first child. Births registered between
1986 to 1992 were included in this analysis.
Age of mothers at first birth was between 15
and 30 years. Sole registrations were
assumed to belong to lone mothers and joint
registrations to mothers with partners.
Women were classified by their parental
access to cars and housing tenure. These
indicators have been used extensively as
proxy measures of socio-economic status,
owner occupied housing and access to cars
indicating more advantaged backgrounds.2,3
Table 1 shows socio-economic status and lone
parent status of the parents of those who were
lone mothers. Lone mothers were more likely to
come from a less advantaged background than
mothers with partners. They were also more
likely to come from a lone parent household.
Table 2 shows that within each car access and
housing tenure category, a higher proportion of
lone mothers was from a lone parent
background than from a two-parent household.
It is evident, however, that socio-economic status
remained a strong influence.The proportions of
lone mothers were higher from deprived than
from affluent backgrounds, regardless of whether
they were from a lone or two-parent household.
For example, among those whose parents were
in local authority housing, 7 per cent of lone
mothers were from a lone parent background
and 5 per cent from a two-parent household.
Own lone mother status, 1986-92, by parental socio-economic status and by parental lone
parent status in 1971
Parental
status
Own lone mother status, 1986-92
Lone mother
ACCESS TO CARS
No access (%)
Access (%)
HOUSING TENURE
Local Authority (%)
Privately Rented (%)
Owner
Occupied (%)
LONE PARENT STATUS OF PARENTS
Lone parent
household(%)
Two-parent
household(%)
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
N a t i o n a l
Rosato and J Brown from the first stage of this
project on the socio-demographic background
of women who become lone parents.
S t a t i s t i c s
Mothers
with partners
Not
mothers
Total
(100 per cent)
5
2
34
31
61
67
15,274
29,641
5
4
39
30
56
67
25,154
6,594
2
29
69
25,154
5
33
62
2,985
3
32
65
41,930
9 1
Among those whose parents were in owner
occupied housing, the corresponding
proportions were 4 per cent and 2 per cent.
These descriptive statistics suggest that both
socio-economic status and lone parent status
of parents influenced whether their children
became lone mothers.
Further information on the LS project is
available from Seeromanie Harding at
Longitudinal Study Unit, B7/10, ONS.
Telephone 0171-533-5186. The most recent
estimates of lone parents are given in the
article by John Haskey (see page 5).
1
2
3
Department of Health. Variations in
Health: what can the Department of
Health and the NHS do? HMSO (1995).
Smith J and Harding S. Mortality of
women and men using alternative social
classifications. In: Drever F, Whitehead
M (eds). Inequalities in Health. The
Stationery Office (1997).
Goldblatt P. Longitudinal Study
1971-81: mortality and social
organisations. HMSO (1990)
Table 2
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S p r i n g
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P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Own lone mother status, 1986–92, by parental lone parent status and parental socioeconomic status
Own lone mother status, 1986–92
Parental lone
parent status
Lone mother
Mothers
with partners
Not mothers
Total
(100 per cent)
NO ACCESS TO CARS
Lone parent
household (%)
Two-parent
household (%)
6
34
60
2,038
5
35
61
13,236
ACCESS TO CARS
Lone parent
household (%)
Two-parent
household (%)
4
32
64
947
2
31
67
28,694
LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING
Lone parent
household (%)
Two-parent
household (%)
7
36
57
1,344
5
39
56
11,792
OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING
Lone parent
household (%)
Two-parent
household (%)
4
31
66
985
2
29
69
24,205
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
Recent ONS publications
Teenage smoking attitudes in 1996 (The Stationery Office
December Price £19 ISBN 0 11 620988 7). Presents survey
findings on the smoking behaviour, knowledge and attitudes of
children aged 11-15 in England.
Drinking: adults’ behaviour and knowledge (The Stationery
Office December Price £10.95 ISBN 0 11 620973 9). A report on
research using data from the ONS Omnibus Survey.Topics include:
adults’ alcohol consumption, patterns of drinking, knowledge of
units of alcohol and awareness of current advice on drinking.
Abortion statistics 1996 (The Stationery Office December
Price £22 ISBN 0 11 621003 6). Annual reference volume
containing data on legally induced abortions in England and
Wales during 1996.
Electoral statistics 1997 (The Stationery Office December
Price £22 ISBN 0 11 620989 5). Statistics showing parliamentary
and local government electors in constituencies and local
government areas for 1997 (and 1996 for comparison). Data
covers England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The prevalence of back pain in Great Britain in 1996
(The Stationery Office December Price £12.95 ISBN 011
620968 2). Report presenting the latest results from the ONS
Omnibus Survey on lower back pain in Great Britain.
Travel Trends (The Stationery Office December Price £30
ISBN 0 11 620966 6). A report on the 1996 International
Passenger Survey showing travel patterns to and from the
United Kingdom.
Key Data 1997/98 (The Stationery Office December Price
£10.95 ISBN 0 11 620922 4). Compiled for students, this volume
presents a selection of key statistics concerning the main
economic and social aspects of the United Kingdom today.
1991 Census Key Statistics for Urban and Rural Areas
(Regional volumes)
The North (ISBN 0 11 620904 6),The Midlands (ISBN 0 11 620 905
4),The South East (ISBN 0 11 620906 2), The South West and Wales
(ISBN 0 11 620907 0) (The Stationery Office January Price £32.50
each). Four separate volumes covering the regions of England and
Wales, providing a selection of 140 key statistics for every town and
city in the relevant region at the time of the 1991 Census.
Social Trends 28 (The Stationery Office January Price £39.50
ISBN 0 11 620987 9).
The latest edition of this contemporary guide to UK society
which draws together statistics from a wide range of
government departments and other organisations.
Annual Abstract of statistics 1998 (The Stationery Office
January Price £39.50 ISBN 0 11 620965 8). Annual compendium
providing comprehensive listings of current and historical data
on economic, social, financial and industrial topics.
Mortality statistics 1996: cause (The Stationery Office
February Price £35 ISBN 011 621025 7). Annual reference
volume presenting deaths by underlying cause, and by age and
sex for 1996 in England and Wales.
Key population and vital statistics 1995 (The Stationery
Office February Price £30 ISBN 0 11 621024 9). Key statistics for
local and health authority areas in 1995. Topics covered include
population, births, deaths and migration within England and
Wales in the reference year.
Population and Health Monitors
Legal abortions, September quarter 1997 (AB 98/1 ONS
February Price £4.00)
O f f i c e
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N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
3
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
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updates
Conceptions
The provisional number of conceptions in England and Wales
for 1996 was 816 thousand, an increase of 3.1 per cent from
the 1995 figure of 790.6 thousand. The conception rate rose
from 73.7 per thousand women in 1995 to 76.0 in 1996.
Births
The provisional number of live births for the United Kingdom in
the September quarter 1997 was 186 thousand, a decrease of
2.8 per cent from the figure of 191.4 thousand for the
corresponding quarter in 1996. The birth rate per thousand
population fell from 13.0 to 12.5 over the same period.
●
●
Deaths
The provisional total of deaths in the United Kingdom for 1997
was 631.2 thousand, a decrease of 1.2 per cent from the 1996
figure of 638.9 thousand. The death rate for the United Kingdom
fell from 10.9 per thousand population to 10.7 per thousand over
the same period.
●
●
The provisional number of live births outside marriage for the
September quarter 1997 was 68.8 thousand, the same as the
corresponding quarter in 1996.
Demographic indicators – England and Wales
Population size
Figure 1
Population change (mid-year
to mid-year)
Figure 2
Millions
52
International migration*
Thousands
300
Thousands
250
Total change
200
51.5
Figure 3
inflow
250
Natural change
51
200
100
outflow
50.5
150
Net migration
50
1991
92
93
94
95
96
1991
Births
Figure 4
92
175
93
94
(mid-year)
96
95
Deaths
Figure 5
12 months - thousands
800
Quarterly thousands
200
0
0
Quarterly thousands
200
* United Kingdom
1991
Figure 6
12 months - thousands
800
175
700
150
600
92
93
94
Year
95
96
Infant mortality
(under 1 year)
Rate per 1,000 live births
10
9
700
8
7
600
150
125
125
1991
92
93
94
95
96
500
100
Source: Tables 5,8 and 17
4
O f f i c e
f o r
500
1991
92
Key to Figs 4-6:
N a t i o n a l
93
94
95
96
quarterly data
S t a t i s t i c s
400
6
5
1991
annual data
92
93
94
95
96
9 91 1 | |
S Sp pr ri in ng g 1 19 99 98 8
P Po op pu ul la at ti o
i on n T Tr re en nd ds s
One-parent families
and their dependent children
in Great Britain
John Haskey
Demography and Health,
ONS
This article analyses a number of aspects of lone
parenthood. First, it updates the estimated
national numbers of one-parent families and
dependent children living in them. The article
then considers the composition of lone parents
by their marital status and examines the family
sizes of lone parent families and couple families,
as well as contrasting the different age profiles of
the different kinds of lone parent. Specially
commissioned survey data on the marital and
cohabitational histories of lone mothers, married
mothers and cohabiting mothers are analysed to
give a picture of their differing patterns of past
INTRODUCTION
One-parent families and the children living in them have long been
of interest to policy-makers, legislators and those concerned with
social welfare. Furthermore, because of the rising prevalence of
lone parenthood – and hence the increased significance of oneparent families to the changing patterns of family formation and
dissolution – they have also been of growing interest to
demographers, sociologists and population scientists.
partnerships. The article also investigates the
D E F I N I T I O N O F A O N E - PA R E N T FA M I LY
people present in lone parent households in
The definition of a one-parent family is the one used by the
Department of Social Security – and before that by the Department
of Health and Social Security – and has been used for official
purposes since 1971. It is the definition adopted in the Finer report1
on one-parent families commissioned by the former Department of
Health and Social Security in 1969: “a mother or a father living
without a spouse (and not cohabiting) with his or her never-married
dependent child or children aged either under 16 or from 16 to
(under) 19 and undertaking full-time education”.
terms of their relationship to the lone parent.
ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBERS OF ONE-PARENT
FA M I L I E S A N D T H E I R D E P E N D E N T C H I L D R E N
Table 1 presents various alternative estimates, including the ‘best
estimate’ of the number of one-parent families for each year from
1990. The difficulties involved in deriving accurate estimates of the
number of one-parent families have been described in earlier
articles2,3,4 in which a series of ‘best estimates’ were made. The
process of deciding those ‘best estimates’ has consisted of
evaluating different estimates derived from a variety of data
sources and using different methods, with an assessment of the
reliability of each datasource and method. Inevitably, there is some
uncertainty about the accuracy, and possible presence of bias,
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P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
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involved in the estimate from each datasource. Inevitably, too,
concluding the resulting ‘best estimate’ – through graphing the
series of alternative estimates and deciding the most likely track of
the required figure – involves a degree of subjective judgement.
they are not sensitive enough. Consequently, the ‘best estimates’
are inappropriate for estimating annual rates of increase, from one
year to the next, in the number of one-parent families.
The previous article2 which was published on one-parent families
gave a final ‘best estimate’ for 1991 and a provisional ‘best
estimate’ for 1992. Table 1 updates these results, providing final
‘best estimates’ of the numbers of one-parent families in 1992,
1993 and 1994, and provisional ‘best estimates’ of their numbers in
1995 and 1996. Some considerations concerning the different data
sources, and other relevant information, appear in Box 1.
Wherever possible, the ‘best estimate’ is chosen such that it is
either consistent with a linear trend in the immediately preceding
‘best estimates’, or else is consistent with a smoothly changing rate
of increase. The reason for adopting this rule is not due to a
fundamental belief that the yearly numbers in fact change in this
way; rather, it is more a recognition that the datasources cannot
collectively discern more complex movements in numbers, because
Alternative estimates and the ‘best estimate’ of the number of one-parent families, OPFs, in each of the years 1990-96, Great Britain
Table 1
Thousands
Method of estimation/data sources
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Proportion of all families with dependent children which
were OPFs (from given survey) applied to total number of families
with dependent children(from Child Benefit statistics)
From GHS
1,240
1,340
1,400
1,490
1,530
1,530
1,500*
From FES
1,180
1,260
1,370
1,480
1,540
1,550
1,570*
1,570*
1,630
1,660*
1,230
1,340
1,450
1,440
1,450
From FRS
From BHPS*
Adjusted number of OPFs from LFS (subject to possible revision)
(estimates derived from Spring quarter data for year concerned)
1,280
1,380
1,520
1,660
1,760
[OPFs receiving one or more benefits
(from Social Security statistics)
1,280
1,390
1,500
1,600
1,680
1,760
1,800
‘Best estimates’ (thousands)
1,230
1,300
1,370
1,440
1,510
1,560**
1,600**
1,710
All estimates are based on 3-year average data unless otherwise stated. *estimates based on survey data for a single year. ** provisional estimates - see text. For an indication of the size of the confidence intervals
for the estimates from the different surveys, see Reference 2. See Box 1 below for names of the surveys.
Note: the estimates derived from Social Security statistics are included for comparison purposes only; they have not been taken into account in deciding the ‘best estimates’.
Box 1 Data Sources
Table 1 presents various estimates, including the ‘best estimate’, for the number of one-parent families for each year from 1990.
The General Household Survey (GHS) the Family Expenditure Survey (FES) and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) have all been used
to derive estimates, as also, for the first time, have the Family Resources Survey (FRS) and the British Household Panel Survey
(BHPS). Most of these survey data have been used in conjunction with the number of families with dependent children - which has
been estimated using Child Benefit Statistics.
Estimates based on LFS data were not used in the previous estimation exercise because of three separate problems –
described elsewhere5 – each of which would have exaggerated the number of one-parent families. These factors have been
corrected in the LFS estimates which appear in Table 1, although the resulting estimates – which may yet be revised in the
future – are believed to be very slightly over-deflated.6
In normal circumstances, a final best estimate would probably also have been made of the number of one-parent families in
1995, given that for two of the series – those derived from the GHS and FES – a centred three-year average estimate is
available, as well as estimates – albeit based only on a single year’s data, 1995 – from the FRS and BHPS. However, although the
estimates from the different surveys agree quite well in 1992, 1993 and 1994, they diverge in 1995 and 1996.
More particularly, the GHS, the survey with a section specially devoted to collecting accurate demographic information on the
family – and consequently one whose estimates are given extra weight – suggests a levelling-off in numbers between 1994 and
1995 (and even a tentative fall in 1996, based on a single year’s data, although this fall is not statistically significant). This flattening
from 1994 to 1995 occurs not only in the GHS-based estimates, but also in those using the FES and BHPS. In contrast the LFS and
FRS-based estimates point to an increase continuing between 1994 and 1995 at the same rate as before. Consequently, it is
advisable to await further evidence before concluding a final ‘best estimate’ for 1995. However, a provisional estimate is provided
which incorporates an assumption of some slackening in the rate of increase.
6
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]
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P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
In general, the set of alternative estimates do seem to suggest that the
number of one-parent families continued to rise at much the same
pace from 1992 to 1994 as they had between 1988 and 1991.
However, after 1994, there is some tentative evidence that the rate of
increase may have moderated slightly. These general trends have
been reflected in the set of ‘best estimates’. Overall, the provisional
‘best estimate’ of the number of one-parent families in Great Britain
in 1995 is 1.56 million, 27 per cent higher than the corresponding
estimate 5 years previously of 1.23 million in 1990. It is estimated
that, in 1995, one-parent families represented 22 per cent, over one
in 5, of all families with dependent children.
The number of dependent children living in one-parent families is
provisionally estimated to have been 2.7 million in 1995, about one
third more than in 1990. On this basis, it is estimated that one in 5,
20 per cent, of dependent children in Great Britain in 1995 were living
in one-parent families. The growth in the numbers of one-parent
families and dependent children living in them are depicted in Figure 1
from which it can be seen that the growth in the number of dependent
children living in one-parent families has been faster than that of the
number of one-parent families. The basic reason for this phenomenon
is a divergence in the trends in the average family size between lone
parents and couple families - a topic explored later in this article.
The ‘best estimates’ of the numbers of one-parent families since
1971 are summarised in Table 2 which also gives the
corresponding numbers of dependent children living in these oneparent families. These latter estimates have been derived by
multiplying the ‘best estimate’ of the number of one-parent
families with the corresponding average number of dependent
children per one-parent family derived from the General
Household Survey (GHS).
The results presented in the following three sections have been
derived from the GHS. GHS data on 1996 alone suggest a decline in
the prevalence of lone parenthood, which, if true, would represent a
reversal in the trend observed for more than two decades. However,
the fall is not statistically significant. Commentary will therefore be
confined to 3-year average GHS data up to and including that
centred on 1995, even though results will also be given for 1996
single year data in the Tables and some of the Figures.
‘Best estimates’* of the numbers of one-parent families, OPFs, and their dependent children, 1971-96, Great Britain
Table 2
Millions
One-parent families,
OPFs
Dependent children in
OPFs
1971
1976
0.57
0.75
1.0
1.3
1981
1984
1986
1988
1990
1991
0.90
0.94
1.01
1.09
1.23
1.30
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1.37
1.44
1.51
1.56
1.60
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
* estimates for 1995 and 1996 are provisional.
Figure 1
‘Best estimates’ of the numbers of one-parent families and of the dependent children living in them, 1971-96, Great Britain
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
Dependent children in
one-parent families
Number (thousands)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
One-parent
families
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1971
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
T H E M A R I TA L S TAT U S E S O F L O N E M OT H E R S
A N D L O N E F AT H E R S
One-parent families are very diverse in their characteristics and
their circumstances; probably the two best predictors of the
features and situation of a one-parent family are the sex and marital
status of the lone parent concerned. Insofar as the profile of lone
parents by their marital status has changed over the years, so too
has the mix of circumstances of one-parent families.
Figure 2 shows the trend in the proportion of all families with
dependent children which have been headed by a lone parent,
distinguishing the proportions headed by lone mothers and lone
fathers, and also by the lone mothers’ marital status (see Box 2).
.
Box 2
GHS Marital Status
1 9 9 8
In 1971, approximately one in 13 – 8 per cent – of all families with
dependent children was headed by a lone parent, but this proportion
steadily rose to 22 per cent – over one in 5 – in 1995. Virtually all
this increase has been due to the growth in the proportion of lone
mothers, although since 1971, lone fathers have accounted for a
gradually increasing proportion, rising from 1.1 to 1.8 per cent of all
families with dependent children. Couple families, consisting
predominantly of married couple families, formed just over three
quarters of all families with dependent children in 1995.
Figure 2 also shows the trends in the composition of lone mother
families, according to the lone mother’s marital status. These
trends are also depicted in Figure 3 which allow a direct
comparison with the corresponding trends for lone fathers. Single –
that is, never-married – and divorced lone mothers have both
formed growing proportions of all lone mothers (at least up to the
mid-1980s in the case of divorced lone mothers); they together
accounted for 42 per cent in 1971, but 72 per cent in 1995.
However, although divorced lone mothers were the most numerous
of all the marital statuses throughout most of the 1970s and 1980s,
single lone mothers eclipsed divorced lone mothers in relative
Information on marital status is collected in GHS in two
separate ways: from an initial question in which the
alternatives are read out (the question being to establish
the family groupings of household members); and from a
more detailed set of questions in the Family Information
Section in which various additional checks are made. In
general, answers derived from the latter questions are
to be preferred as they should be more accurate,
although discrepancies are comparatively few. However,
the Family Information questions are asked only of
respondents who are aged under 60 (under 50 in earlier
GHS years). Conversely, there is no age restriction
imposed on those asked the initial marital status
question, and it is therefore used in the section on
marital status and in the following one on family size.
Figure 3
%
50
Composition of lone mother families and lone father
families with dependent children by marital status of
the lone parent, 1971-96, Great Britain
(a) Lone mothers
40
Single
Divorced
30
Separated
20
Figure 2
Percentage of all families with dependent children
headed by lone mothers (by their marital status) and
by lone fathers, 1971-96, Great Britain
25
10
Widowed
0
71
76
81
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
Year
%
50
Cumulative percentage
20
Separated
lone mothers
Lone fathers
15
(b) Lone fathers
40
Divorced
Separated
30
Widowed lone mothers
10
20
Widowed
5
Single
10
Divorced lone mothers
Single lone mothers
0
1971
0
71
1976
1986
1981
1991
1996
8
Source:
General Household Survey
(%s based on 3-year averages apart from ‘71 & ‘96)
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
80
83
87
Year
Year
Source:
76
General Household Survey
(%s based on 3-year averages apart from ‘71 & ‘96)
91 92 93 94 95 96
9 1
|
numbers from the beginning of the 1990s. In fact, the proportion of
all lone mothers who were single started to increase quite sharply
around about 1986, when the incidence of births outside marriage
began to rise at a faster rate.
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
F A M I LY S I Z E S O F O N E - PA R E N T FA M I L I E S
The pattern of family sizes – as measured by the number of
dependent children – varies according to the type of family, and,
more especially, according to the kind of one-parent family. Table
3(d) provides estimates of the average number of dependent
children per family for all one-parent families, all couple families,
and the three most important kinds of one-parent family: single;
separated; and divorced lone mother families. The average number
of dependent children per one-parent family has increased steadily
– by about 7 per cent between 1981 and 1995. This growth in the
average family size of one-parent families explains why the
number of dependent children living in one-parent families has
risen at a faster rate than the number of one-parent families.
In contrast to the growth in the proportions of divorced and
single lone mothers, the proportions of separated and widowed
lone mothers have both declined, the combined proportion
falling from 58 per cent in 1971 to 28 per cent in 1995, under
one half the 1971 proportion. However, the largest relative fall
has been in widowed lone mothers; they accounted for one in 4
lone mothers in 1971, but only one in 25 in 1995. Of course,
most of this decline is due to the fact that the total number of
lone mothers has grown considerably, although it is estimated
that there has also been a slight fall in the absolute number of
widowed lone mothers, the result of a decline in mortality
amongst married men and women.
Tables 3(a) and 3(b) explore other aspects of the family sizes of
both one-parent families and couple families over the period from
1971. Since 1981, one-child families amongst one-parent families
have fallen in relative numbers, whilst those with three or four
children have grown. The corresponding picture for couple families
is the complete reverse; one-child families have become relatively
more common since 1981, and three- and four- child families
relatively less frequent. These results are confirmed directly by the
ratios of the corresponding proportions in Tables 3(a) and 3(b)
(given in Table 3c); compared with couple families, one-parent
families with one dependent child have declined in relative terms
since 1981, whilst one-parent families with 2, 3, 4, and 5 or more
dependent children have all grown in relative numbers.
To some extent, the same trends also apply to lone fathers: divorced
lone fathers predominating in relative numbers since the late 1970s
but declining slightly in more recent years; and separated lone
fathers accounting for a slowly diminishing proportion (apart from
the last few years), but yet still forming around one third of all lone
fathers in recent years. Perhaps the most intriguing feature of Figure
3 is the steady growth in the proportion of all lone fathers who are
single lone fathers. Although the sample numbers upon which the
proportions of lone fathers are based are considerably smaller than
those of lone mothers, it is entirely possible that this is a genuine
trend, representing a small but growing phenomenon of nevermarried fathers bringing up dependent children as part of a oneparent family as a result, presumably, of the end of a cohabiting
union in which there were children.
On average, couples still have more dependent children than their
lone parent counterparts, although the differential in family size has
been narrowing (Table 3d). It may be seen that the average family
size of single lone mothers has grown the most – by 30 per cent
since 1981 – followed by that of separated lone mothers – by 13
per cent since 1981 – whilst the average family size of divorced
lone mothers has scarcely changed. Possibly there has been an
increasing trend towards single lone mothers remaining nevermarried throughout their entire child-bearing years, so that this
group of mothers has been having more children whilst still single
than other single lone mothers who subsequently married or started
cohabiting well before the end of their child-bearing years.
By the same token, of those men and women who answered that they
were separated in response to the initial marital status question, a
small, but growing, proportion are likely to mean that they had
separated from a partner in an informal union. In such cases, their
legal marital status would probably not be married, unlike those who
had separated from a spouse. Nevertheless, irrespective of this legal
marital status distinction, both groups of ‘separated’ would
previously have been living with partners as couples.
Table 3
S p r i n g
Profile of one-parent families and couple families by number of dependent children,1991-96, Great Britain
Percentages
Number of
dependent
children
Year*
1971
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
(a) One-parent families, OPFs
1
2
3
4
5 or more
53
28
11
5
3
57
31
9
2
1
1.47
0.73
0.69
0.79
1.01
1.88
0.71
0.48
0.46
0.41
Year*
1971
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
(b) Couple families, CFs
56
31
9
2
1
52
32
12
3
1
51
33
11
3
1
53
33
11
3
1
52
32
11
3
1
51
32
12
3
1
50
33
13
3
1
(c) Ratio+ of percentages (a):(b)
1
2
3
4
5 or more
Number of
dependent
children
1
2
3
4
5 or more
36
39
17
6
3
30
44
18
5
3
39
44
13
3
1
39
43
14
3
1
37
44
14
3
1
37
44
14
4
1
37
44
14
4
1
38
44
14
4
1
39
43
13
4
1
1.69
1.88
1.47
1.97
1.79
1.67
1.88
1.48
1.94
1.75
1.69
1.89
1.48
2.00
1.70
1.71
1.87
1.55
2.04
1.73
1.73
1.85
1.56
2.08
1.75
(d) Average no. of dependent children per family
1.43
0.71
0.73
0.77
0.77
1.35
0.74
0.86
0.85
0.85
1.37
0.76
0.81
0.91
0.81
1.41
0.74
0.76
0.83
0.98
1.42
0.72
0.80
0.93
0.99
1.36
0.75
0.85
0.91
1.14
1.29
0.75
1.00
0.89
0.92
OPFs
CFs
Single LMs
Separated LMs
Divorced LMs
1.79
2.03
1.25
2.03
1.93
1.60
2.07
1.19
1.81
1.75
1.60
1.83
1.33
1.78
1.76
1.68
1.86
1.40
1.97
1.84
LM = lone mother (family).
*3-year averages (apart from 1996) + calculated directly from the sample numbers.
Source: General Household Survey.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
A G E S O F H E A D S O F O N E - PA R E N T F A M I L I E S
Lone mothers tend to be younger than lone fathers, as judged by
their age profiles, which are portrayed in Figure 4(a). The peak age
group for lone mothers is the early 30s, whereas that for lone fathers
is the early 40s. More than 2 in every ten lone mothers are in their
early thirties, whilst 3 in every ten lone fathers are in their early 40s.
Of course, part of the explanation for this large difference lies in the
different marital status compositions of lone mothers and lone
fathers which were investigated in Figure 3.
The contrasting age profiles of lone mothers by their marital status are
portrayed in Figure 4(b). (In this section, the legal marital status of the
lone parents has been derived from the Family Information section
questions of the GHS.) Single lone mothers tend to be the youngest,
followed by separated lone mothers, divorced lone mothers, and
widowed lone mothers. This sequence is to be expected since the
events of separation, divorce and widowhood tend to occur at
increasingly older ages, with the state of being single applying at the
youngest ages. Three in ten single lone mothers are in their early 20s,
with over one third being aged under 25. In contrast, the peak age
groups for both separated and divorced lone mothers are the early and
late 30s; about one quarter of both groups falling in each of these two
age groups. Just over one quarter of widowed lone mothers are in their
early 40s, the peak age group for this group of lone mothers.
Figure 4a-d
1 9 9 8
Figure 4(c) contrasts the age profiles of separated lone mothers and
separated lone fathers, and the corresponding age profiles for
divorced lone mothers and fathers, respectively. In both instances,
the lone fathers tend to be older than their lone mother counterparts;
in addition, in both cases there is slightly less variation in the ages of
the lone fathers about the peak age than for lone mothers. This
finding may be partly due to lone fathers being less likely than lone
mothers to remain being lone parents for a given period of time after
becoming lone parents.
Of course, almost all lone mothers and lone fathers were formerly
married, or living in a cohabiting union, before they became lone
parents. (About one in 7 lone mothers, though, had not previously
lived in any partnership.) It is therefore appropriate to consider the
age distributions of the men and women from which the vast
majority of lone fathers and mothers are drawn. The pairs of age
profiles of married men and women and also of cohabiting men
and women with dependent children in their family are depicted in
Figure 4(d). Those who are cohabiting tend to be younger than
their married counterparts, and in general, men in partnerships whether these are marriages or cohabiting unions - tend to be older
than women in the same kind of partnership. However, the age
profile of cohabiting men is not much older than that of cohabiting
women, whilst the age profile of married men is distinctly older
than that of married women.
Age distributions of lone mothers and lone fathers* by their marital status, 1992-95, Great Britain
(*1990-95 for lone fathers and widowed lone mothers)
40
40
(a)
35
35
Total lone fathers
30
25
Percentage
Percentage
30
Total lone mothers
20
10
10
5
5
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59
Age
Age
(c)
40
Separated
lone fathers
35
30
30
Separated
lone mothers
Divorced lone
fathers
20
Divorced
lone
mothers
Percentage
Percentage
Divorced
lone
mothers
0
15
(d)
Cohabiting men
25
20
Married men
15
10
10
5
5
0
Married women
Cohabiting
women
0
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59
Age
Age
Source: General Household Survey
10
Separated
lone mothers
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59
35
25
Widowed lone mothers
20
15
0
Single lone mothers
25
15
40
(b)
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
M A R I TA L A N D C O H A B I TAT I O N A L H I S TO R I E S
O F L O N E M OT H E R S
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
A lone mother’s current marital status provides important clues to
her likely age, number of children, length of time as a lone mother,
and, indeed, her general demographic characteristics and financial
circumstances, if such information is not readily available. However,
while current marital status undoubtedly does distinguish different
demographic patterns amongst the different groups of lone parents,
an ideal basis from which to gain a fuller understanding of, say, lone
mothers’ past childbearing, is to have the combined marital and
cohabitational histories of the lone mothers.
Overall, just under one half, 48 per cent, of lone mothers had never
cohabited, and had only married once (their marriage being their first
and only partnership). A further one in 10 had also never cohabited, but
had been married twice. One in 7, 14 per cent, had lived in one
cohabiting union only which had ended, without the lone mother ever
having married. Relatively small proportions had lived in other
sequences of two unions in total – and this is perhaps the most important
finding: that the vast majority of lone mothers have either married only
once, or lived in only one cohabiting union, or else been married once
and cohabited once. One in 7, 15 per cent, of lone mothers said that they
had never married nor lived in a partnership outside marriage. These
lone mothers must have been single lone mothers.
Some findings from a special module of questions asked in the
Omnibus Survey are presented in Table 4 which allow the marital
and cohabitational histories of lone mothers to be compared with
those of married mothers and cohabiting mothers. (In Table 4, premarital cohabitation – that is, where the marriage partners lived
together before marrying – has not been counted as a separate
cohabitation, but considered part of the marriage.) Results are shown
in Table 4 for the three sets of mothers (each aged under 60); their
age profiles will have differed slightly. However, each set of mothers
had to have one or more dependent children, which would have
tended to reduce such differences. Indeed, Figures 4a and 4d showed
that the age profiles are broadly comparable, although cohabiting
mothers tend to be younger than lone mothers who, in turn, tend to
be younger than married mothers with dependent children.
A much higher proportion of married mothers than lone mothers
had been married only once, roughly nine in every 10, and five in
every 10, respectively, although one in 10 of both groups of
mothers had been married twice. Four in 10 cohabiting mothers
had been married only once, compared with five in 10 lone
mothers. However, the proportion of lone mothers who had been
married twice was double that for cohabiting mothers – 10 and 5
per cent, respectively. About one in 7 lone mothers had cohabited
only once, without ever having married, whilst the corresponding
proportion for cohabiting mothers was three in every 7. Table 4
also gives corresponding results for fathers, although,
unfortunately, the sample number of lone fathers is very small. In
general, the pattern of marital/cohabitational histories of married
fathers and married mothers is very similar, as is also that of
cohabiting fathers and cohabiting mothers.
Table 4
Lone, married and cohabiting mothers* and fathers* with dependent children - profiles of the parents’ marital and cohabitational histories, 1994-95,
Great Britain
* aged 16-59 and either head of household or spouse/partner of head of household
Previous
Marital/cohabitational history
(in chronological order)
Married once only; marriage continuing
Married once only; marriage ended
Married once only; marriage ended,
cohabiting
Married once only; cohabited,
cohabitation ended
Married twice; second marriage
continuing
Married twice; second marriage ended
Married twice; second marriage ended,
cohabiting
Cohabited once only; cohabitation
continuing
Cohabited once only;
cohabitation ended
Cohabited once only; married once,
marriage continuing
Cohabited once only; married once,
marriage ended
Cohabited twice,
second cohabitation continuing
Cohabited twice,
second cohabitation ended
Cohabited three times,
third cohabitation continuing
cohabitations?
Mothers with dependent children
marriages? Currently
Lone
cohabiting? mothers
none
none
none
yes
no
no
none
yes
yes
yes
yes
no
4
none
none
yes
yes
no
no
10
none
yes
yes
none
none
yes
-
yes
none
no
14
yes
none
no
yes
yes
no
yes
none
yes
yes
none
no
yes
none
yes
none
none
no
86
10
Lone
fathers
84
7
2
(11)
4
2
5
3
9
0.2
57
(11)
0.6
6
15
4
4
(6)
0.1
0.4
6
(6)
1
3
0.3
6
2
3
100
970
100
111
100
1310
0.6
-
0.2
2
6
0.2
0.5
3
3
0.2
10
2
0.2
All
fathers
74
1
28
(11)
42
Cohabiting
fathers
(56)
0.7
0.4
1
Married
fathers
3
5
3
100
229
All
mothers
64
8
40
4
All marital/cohabitational histories** - percentages
All marital/cohabitational histories** - sample numbers
Cohabiting
mothers
48
Other histories involving marriages
and/or cohabitations
No relationships whatsoever
Married
mothers
Fathers with dependent children
100
18
100
863
100
98
100
979
Source: Omnibus Survey.
**including none.
Note: pre-marital cohabitation with future spouse has not been counted as a separate cohabitation
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
11
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
OTHER MEMBERS OF LONE PARENT HOUSEHOLDS
It will be recalled that the definition of a one-parent family is
essentially that of a nuclear family, insofar as any relatives who are
other than the lone parent or their never-married children are not
included as members of the (nuclear) one-parent family. This
definition is a particularly practical one in that it easily allows relatives
and non-relatives to be distinguished in lone parent households.
An earlier analysis4 showed that there has been an increasing trend
for both lone mother and lone father families to live in their own
separate accommodation, that is, as a one-(nuclear) family
household, rather than sharing a home with one or more other
families as a multi-family household. Furthermore this trend has
been observed amongst both divorced and single lone mother
families, particularly the latter; about one third of single lone
Table 5a
mother families lived in one-family households in 1974, but by
about 1990 this proportion had more than doubled to almost three
quarters. Overall, around 8 in 10 lone mother and lone father
families were living in one-family households around 1990.
Since 1993, the General Household Survey, GHS, has collected
information on relationships between all possible pairs of household
members, and it is therefore possible to examine these data to see
whether there are other members present in lone parent households,
and, if so, their relationship to the lone parent. Furthermore, the
profile of these relationships can be examined separately for cases
where the lone parent is the head of household – which will usually
indicate that the household is a single-family lone parent household –
and also for cases in which the lone parent is not the head of
household. These two sets of relationship profiles are given in Table
5a – separately according to the different type of lone parent.
Households containing a lone parent: profile of relationships of other household members to the lone parent, 1993-95, Great Britain
Relationship
Lone mothers
to lone parent
Single
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
Lone
Lone
Lone mothers
fathers
parents
Single
Lone parent head of household
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
Lone
Lone
fathers
parents
Lone parent not head of household
Son or daughter*
Step, foster or in-law
son or daughter
Brother, sister**
Parent
Grandchild
Grandparent
Other relative
Other non-relative
97.7
97.6
97.5
96.9
91.9
97.1
34
51
38
(50)
(19)
36
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.3
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
2.0
-
1.8
0.7
0.4
0.7
2.2
2.2
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.7
16
43
0.6
4
3
7
16
2
5
19
12
28
7
16
(50)
-
(29)
(43)
(5)
(5)
-
15
38
0.2
0.6
4
6
All relationships to LP(%)
All relationships to LP
(sample no)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1036
864
1222
196
272
3590
345
57
69
2
21
494
Average number of
relationships to LP
per household
1.66
2.14
1.91
2.11
1.79
1.88
3.32
3.56
3.29
2.00
3.50
3.34
Source: General Household Survey.
* including adopted.
** including adopted, step, half, foster and in-law brothers and sisters (counts for the last 4 categories were zero everywhere).
LP = lone parent.
Table 5b
Households containing a lone parent: average number of relatives of lone parent per household, 1993-95, Great Britain
Relationship
Lone mothers
to lone parent
Single
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
Lone
Lone
Lone mothers
fathers
parents
Single
Lone parent head of household
Son or daughter*
Step, foster or in-law
son or daughter
Brother, sister**
Parent
Grandchild
Grandparent
Other relative
Other non-relative
Average number of
LPs per household
Total: average
household size
Sample number
of households
O f f i c e
Divorced
Widowed
Lone
Lone
fathers
parents
Lone parent not head of household
1.62
2.09
1.87
2.04
1.64
1.82
1.12
1.81
1.24
-
-
1.19
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.04
-
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.54
1.43
0.02
0.12
0.09
0.25
0.56
0.06
0.19
0.69
0.38
0.90
0.24
0.52
-
-
0.50
1.26
0.01
0.02
0.15
0.21
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.66
3.14
2.91
3.11
2.79
2.88
4.32
4.56
4.29
3.00
4.50
4.34
623
404
639
93
152
1911
104
16
21
1
6
148
Source: General Household Survey.
* including adopted.
** including adopted, step, half, foster and in-law brothers and sisters (counts for the last 4 categories were zero everywhere).
LP = lone parent.
12
Separated
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
Table 5a – left hand side – gives an analysis for households headed
by lone mothers – separately by each marital status – and also for
lone fathers. Not surprisingly the vast majority of household
members other than the lone parent are the natural children of the
lone parent; the proportion varies from 92 per cent for lone father
households to 98 for single lone mother households. The
proportion of children other than natural children of the lone parent
is largest amongst lone father households and separated lone
mother households, and smallest amongst single lone mother
households. Most of the children concerned are stepchildren.
Possibly in these situations, the natural parent has left the child
living with the stepparent, while she or he has gone elsewhere to
live - either alone or with a new partner.
The other main feature of lone parent headed households is a
tendency for both single lone mothers and lone fathers to have either
a brother or sister, or a more distant relative, or else someone other
than a relative, living with them. Such a situation might be
understood in terms of these lone parents having a greater need than
others for more financial or practical support in their homes – for
example, by having paying guests, or relatives to stay and help bring
up the lone parent’s children. It is understandable, too, that widowed
lone mothers who head households should be more likely than others
to have grandchildren living with them.
Inevitably, a very different picture is obtained on considering the
situation where the lone parent does not head the household (right
hand side of Table 5a). For the most part, sons and daughters are still
the most likely relative to be present in the household, although the
proportions are very much smaller than in households headed by
lone parents. Parents are comparatively numerous; the most likely
explanation being that the lone parent has returned to live in their
own parental home – or, indeed, possibly had never left. The fact that
the proportion is largest for single lone mothers adds weight to this
hypothesis. In addition, one in 5, and one in 6 separated and divorced
lone mothers, respectively, lives with non-relatives. It is possible that
some of these mothers have left their former family home to set up a
new home with friends, or are living in someone else’s home.
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
respectively – with the corresponding percentages (which are almost
identical) – 97.7 and 97.6, respectively – of all relationships to the
lone mothers concerned which were sons/daughters in Table 5a.
Parents of single lone mothers are comparatively numerous in single
lone mother households in which she is not the head - the average is
1.43 parents per household. Presumably, there is a comparatively
large number of parental households in which both parents are
present, followed by successively smaller numbers in which only the
mother, and only the father are present.
CONCLUSIONS
The prevalence of lone parenthood has increased further in recent
years, although there is some tentative evidence that the pace of
increase may have slackened slightly in the very most recent
period. In addition, and perhaps more importantly, the number of
dependent children living in one-parent families has grown at a
faster rate than that of the number of one-parent families. Given
that the number of dependent children living in one-parent families
is currently estimated to be some 2.7 million, or one in 5 of all
dependent children in Great Britain, the policy issues concerning
lone parenthood are important and of increasing relevance to a
significant proportion of the child population. An additional
conclusion is that analyses of the demographic and socio-economic
characteristics of one-parent families and their children are
increasingly needed to assess the circumstances of lone parenthood
and to highlight those areas particularly requiring the application
and implementation of appropriate social policy.
The results described above do not take into account the fact that
different kinds of lone parent households will have different
numbers of household members – and therefore different numbers
of possible relationships to the lone parent. For example, if a given
lone parent household contains three household members in all,
there are two possible relationships to the lone parent, whereas if
another household contains six members, there are five possible
relationships to the lone parent. The average number of
relationships to the lone parent per household is given at the foot of
Table 5a, separately for each kind of lone parent.
It may be seen that the averages vary considerably; and, in
particular, are distinctly larger for households in which the lone
parent is not the head. Strictly speaking, therefore, in order to make
a valid comparison between, say, single lone mother-headed
households and separated lone mother households in the
proportions having children living with them, this factor should be
taken into account. This objective may be achieved by considering
the average number of people in the household – the average
household size – and the components of that overall average
contributed by different kinds of relative. Table 5b decomposes the
average household size in just this way.
The average number of sons and daughters per household is highest
for separated and widowed lone mother-headed households and
lowest for single lone mother and lone father-headed households. In
fact, the effect of allowing for overall household size may be seen by
comparing the very different average numbers of sons/daughters for
single and separated lone mother households – 1.62 and 2.09,
O f f i c e
Key Points
• The ‘best estimates’ of the numbers of one-parent
families in Great Britain in 1992, 1993 and 1994 are
1.37, 1.44 and 1.51 million, respectively; provisional
estimates for 1995 and 1996 are 1.56 and 1.60 million,
respectively.
• The corresponding ‘best estimates’ of the numbers of
dependent children living in one-parent families in Great
Britain in 1992, 1993 and 1994 are 2.3, 2.4 and 2.6
million; provisional estimates for 1995 and 1996 are 2.7
and 2.8 million, respectively.
• The number of dependent children living in one-parent
families has been growing at a faster rate than the number
of one-parent families. About one in 5 of all dependent
children was living in a one-parent family in 1995.
• The peak age group for lone mothers is the early 30s,
whereas that for lone fathers is the early 40s. Over two
in every 10 lone mothers are in their early 30s, whilst
three in every 10 lone fathers are in their early 40s.
• Just under one half of all lone mothers had never
cohabited and had only married once. A further one in
10 had never cohabited, but had married twice. One in 7
had lived in one cohabiting union only, which had ended,
without ever having married. A further one in 7 stated
that they had never married nor lived in a partnership
outside marriage.
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
13
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
References
Department of Health and Social Security. Report of the
Committee on One-parent families (10 per cent) Great Britain.
(Chairman: The Hon. Sir Morris Finer), Vols. 1 and 2, HMSO
(London, 1974).
John Haskey. Estimated numbers of one-parent families and
their prevalence in Great Britain in 1991. Population Trends, 78
HMSO (London, 1994) pp. 5-19.
John Haskey. Trends in the numbers of one-parent
families in Great Britain. Population Trends, 71 HMSO
(London, 1993) pp. 26-33.
John Haskey. Estimated numbers and demographic
characteristics of one-parent families in Great Britain.
Population Trends, 65 HMSO (London, 1991) pp. 35-43.
Pam Tate. Data on households and families from the Labour
Force Survey. Labour Market Trends, March 1997, pp.89-98.
David Hastings. Household and family data from the Labour
Force Survey: recent improvements in approach. Labour
Market Trends, June 1997, pp.209-216.
1
2
3
4
5
6
Endnote: This article is a revised and updated version of a paper
given at the conference ‘Private lives and public responses: lone
parenthood and future policy in the UK’ which was held at the
University of Bath 5-6 June 1997. A slightly different version of
this updated article – including a section comparing the trends in
the proportions of lone mothers and married mothers who were
working – will also appear in an edited Volume of the conference
papers (with the same title as the conference) to be published by
Policy Studies Institute in early 1998.
14
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 91 1 | |
S Sp pr ri in ng g 1 19 99 98 8
P Po op pu ul la at ti o
i on n T Tr re en nd ds s
Mor tality of migrants from
outside England and Wales by
marital status
Roy Maxwell and Seeromanie Harding
Demography and Health
ONS
It is well known that men and women who are
married have lower mortality rates than those who
are not. It is also known that some migrants from
abroad have higher mortality rates than people in
England and Wales and that they have different
patterns of family formation and dissolution. In this
article the authors investigate the patterns of
mortality by country of birth, marital status and
INTRODUCTION
cause of death to see if the overall differences in
Many international studies have shown that marriage is associated
with better health and with lower mortality.1-4 Two hypotheses have
emerged from these studies. The first suggests that the lower
mortality of those who are married is a consequence of the selection
of healthy people into marriage and remarriage. This leaves a
residual, less healthy group of people who remain unmarried. The
second hypothesis suggests that marriage itself is protective because
it provides a framework for improved social and economic
circumstances and healthy behaviour, which lowers the risk of
premature mortality.
mortality among migrants can be explained by their
different marital patterns.
Marital status is an important index of differences in health risks
between women and men in England and Wales.5-9 Marriage
patterns vary among ethnic groups, and these differences may
affect both access to economic resources and networks of psychosocial support. Among Indians, for instance, marriage is almost a
universal norm, whereas this is not the case for Caribbeans.10-12
Differences in mortality between ethnic groups are widely known
and recent work has examined the contribution of socio-economic
factors to this.13-18 The association between mortality and marital
status in migrant groups in England and Wales has not previously
been explored, and in this article we use the most recently available
data to address the following questions:
•
Does the mortality of migrant groups differ by marital status as it
does for the native-born?
•
Are mortality differences between those married and not married greater
in migrant groups than among all people in England and Wales?
•
To what extent are the patterns of mortality from main causes of
death among migrant groups accounted for by differences in
marital status distributions?
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
15
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
METHOD
For people aged 20 to 64, populations by age and sex from the
1991 Census and numbers of deaths by age, sex and cause of death
for the years 1991-93 were used to derive standardised mortality
ratios (SMR) for all causes of death and selected causes –
ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lung cancer,
accidents and injuries (minus suicide), and suicide. The five year
age- and sex-specific mortality rates in England and Wales were
used as the standard. Standardised mortality ratios adjusted for
differences in marital status distributions were also derived to
estimate how much of the overall differences in mortality between
migrants could be explained by different marital patterns. The
expected deaths were re-distributed by applying the age-specific
marital death rates of all England and Wales to the age-specific
marital populations of the migrant groups.
Death rates directly standardised to the European population were
also calculated to enable comparisons of mortality differences by
marital status among migrant groups.
1 9 9 8
West/South Africa and the Caribbean, and ‘Indian origin’ to refer
collectively to people originating from both the Indian
subcontinent and East Africa. The categories of marital status
recorded at the 1991 Census and at death registration are married,
single (never married), divorced, and widowed. Death registration
includes an additional category ‘not stated’. Only 2 per cent of
deaths in England and Wales could not be classified to a marital
status. The corresponding proportions for Caribbeans, those of
Indian origin, Scots and Irish were similar (2 to 3 per cent),
suggesting that the overall impact on mortality differences among
these groups is likely to be small. The proportion among West/
South Africans, however, was higher (8 per cent) which could
influence mortality differences by marital status. The numbers of
deaths in some of the groups were small and for most analyses
the never married, widowed, and divorced categories were
combined into a ‘not married’ category.
FINDINGS
Marital status distributions at the 1991 Census
Countr y of bir th groupings
Although ethnic origin was recorded in the 1991 Census it is not
recorded at death registration. In this study, therefore, country of
birth was used as a proxy for ethnic origin. Another caveat is that
those born abroad may include people of European extraction.
However, since these migrants tend to be older than the age range
covered in this study the effect on the mortality estimates of
migrants is expected to be small. Detailed discussion about the
limitations of using country of birth as a proxy for ethnic origin for
non-white groups can be found elsewhere.13,14
Country of birth groupings used in this analysis are those born in
the Caribbean Commonwealth, West and South Africa, East
African Commonwealth, Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka), Scotland, and Ireland (Northern Ireland
and the Republic of Ireland). Migrants from Africa were
separated because the majority of East African migrants were of
Indian origin, whereas those from West/South Africa were
predominantly of ‘Black African’ origin.19 We use the terms
‘African origin’ to refer collectively to people originating from
Table 1
All cause mor tality by countr y of bir th
Figure 1 shows standardised mortality ratios by country of birth for
women and men aged 20-64 years. As has been shown in previous
studies,15-17 excess mortality of 15-42 per cent was seen for people
born in West/South Africa, East Africa, Scotland, and Ireland. Men
from the Indian subcontinent showed a small excess (SMR 107).
Populations and marital status (%) by country or region of birth and sex, 20–64 years, England and Wales*, 1991 Census
England and Wales *
African origin
Caribbean
All (100%)
Indian origin
West/South
Africa
Ireland
Indian
subcontinent
%
26
17
4
53
%
26
9
3
62
%
23
4
3
70
%
6
3
6
85
%
19
10
4
67
%
20
9
6
65
14,902,941
117,349
88,445
94,852
300,443
263,213
298,838
29
6
1
63
25
12
2
62
32
5
0
62
26
2
0
71
13
2
1
84
25
9
1
66
28
7
2
63
15,018,619
102,182
94,672
103,715
309,430
293,614
283,159
Men
Never married
Divorced
Widowed
Married
* All people resident in England and Wales.
16
East Africa
Scotland
%
21
9
4
67
Women
Never married
Divorced
Widowed
Married
All (100%)
Table 1 shows the proportions of migrants in each marital status
category at the 1991 Census. Twenty-one per cent of all women,
and 29 per cent of all men in England and Wales were recorded as
never married. Among migrants, slightly greater proportions of
Caribbean, West/South African, and East African women were
never married (23-26 per cent). There was also a larger than
average proportion of West/South African men who were never
married (32 per cent). Compared with all women and all men
approximately twice as many Caribbean women and men were
divorced. Those from the Indian subcontinent were the least
heterogeneous group with about 85 per cent married.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
All cause mor tality by marital status
Figure 1
Figures 2 and 3 show that there was a consistent pattern of
mortality by marital status for all men and all women in England
and Wales. Excess mortality was seen for all women and men
who were not married. Migrant women and men showed a similar
pattern of higher mortality among those who were not married.
For some of the groups, such as West/South Africans, small
numbers of deaths in some of the marital categories are reflected
in the wide confidence intervals.
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR) with 95%
confidence interval (CI) for all causes by country or
region of birth and sex, 20–64 years, 1991–93,
(England and Wales* = 100)
200
Women
Men
SMR (log scale)
150
Table 2 shows directly standardised rates and rate ratios by marital
status and migrant group. Mortality for all women in England and
Wales who were not married was 56 per cent higher than for those
who were; mortality of men who were not married was more than
twice that of married men (rate ratio 2.05).
100
67
The mortality differential by marital status was much smaller
among those from West/South Africa compared with all
women and men in England and Wales. Among not married
people, mortality of those from West/South Africa was similar
to that in England and Wales, but among married people
mortality was some 37 per cent greater than in England and
Wales as a whole. Married and not married men of Indian
origin also showed smaller mortality differences compared
with all men. There was considerable variation among those of
Indian origin. Mortality differences among those from East
Africa (rate ratios – women 1.76, men 1.72) were significantly
larger than among those from the Indian subcontinent (rate
ratios – women 1.38, men 1.46).
Among Scottish (rate ratio 2.14) and Irish (rate ratio 2.06) men,
relative differences were not significantly different compared
with that of all men (rate ratio 2.05). The absolute difference in
mortality, however, between those married and those not
married was larger mainly because of the higher death rates in
those who were not married (Scottish 2,648, Irish 2,602, all men
2,079 per 100,000).
Figure 2
50
Caribbean West/South East
Africa
Africa
Indian
Scotland
subcontinent
Ireland
* all people resident in England and Wales
C o m p a r i s o n o f m o r t a l i t y d i f fe r e n c e s by m a r i t a l
s t a t u s b e t we e n wo m e n a n d m e n
The mortality differential between all not married and married men
(rate ratio 2.05) was greater than between all not married and
married women (rate ratio 1.56) in England and Wales. This pattern
was seen for migrants of African origin, and from Scotland and
Ireland but not for those of Indian origin.
A g e v a r i a t i o n s i n m o r t a l i t y by m a r i t a l s t a t u s
Mortality rate ratios comparing those who were not married with
those who were married are given in Figures 4 and 5 for the age
ranges 20-44 and 45-64 years, respectively. In each migrant group,
mortality was consistently higher among those not married than
those married in both age groups.
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for all causes by country or region of birth and marital status, women,
20–64 years, 1991–93, (England and Wales* = 100)
Never married
Widowed
Divorced
Married
200
SMR (log scale)
150
100
67
50
England and
Wales*
Caribbean
West/South
Africa
East
Africa
Indian
subcontinent
Scotland
Ireland
* all people resident in England and Wales
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
17
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for all causes by country or region of birth and marital status, men,
20–64 years, 1991–93, (England and Wales* = 100)
Figure 3
200
SMR (log scale)
150
100
67
50
England and
Wales*
Caribbean
West/South
Africa
Never married
Widowed
Divorced
Married
Indian
subcontinent
East
Africa
Ireland
Scotland
* all people resident in England and Wales
Table 2
All cause mortality rates per 100,000 and rate ratios with 95% confidence interval (CI) by country or region of birth, sex and marital status, 20–64
years, 1991–93
England and Wales ✝
African origin
Caribbean
Rate
Women
Not married
95% CI
1,011 (1,001-1,022)
649
Married
(644-654)
Rate ratio
1.56 * (1.37-1.77)
(not married / married)
Men
Not married
Indian origin
West/South
Africa
East
Africa
Rate
Rate
95% CI
Rate
95% CI
905
(828-982)
1,073
(827-1,319)
655
(598-711)
887
(680-1,094)
1.38 * (1.21-1.57)
1.21 * (1.08-1.36)
Scotland
Ireland
Indian
subcontinent
95% CI
1,268 (1,068-1,468)
722
(616-827)
1.76 * (1.56-1.98)
Rate
940
679
95% CI
Rate
95% CI
Rate
(858-1,022) 1,229 (1,145-1,313) 1,006
(642-717)
1.38 * (1.22-1.57)
823
(781-864)
1.49 * (1.33-1.67)
783
95% CI
(945-1,066)
(746-821)
1.28 * (1.14-1.45)
2,079 (2,062-2,096) 1,552 (1,438-1,667) 2,191 (1,745-2,637) 2,437 (1,981-2,894) 1,861 (1,698-2,024) 2,648 (2,523-2,773) 2,602 (2,500-2,704)
Married rate
1,014 (1,007-1,020)
Rate ratio
2.05 * (1.86-2.26)
(not married / married)
908
(740-1,076) 1,401 (1,207-1,595) 1,420 (1,288-1,551) 1,279 (1,236-1,322) 1,235 (1,186-1,285) 1,262 (1,213-1,311)
1.71 * (1.54-1.9)
1.56 * (1.43-1.71)
1.72 * (1.58-1.87)
1.46 * (1.33-1.6)
2.14 * (1.96-2.34)
2.06 * (1.89-2.25)
* Rate ratio significantly different from 1.00.
✝ All people resident in England and Wales.
Cause specific mor tality by marital status
West/South Africans and East Africans were omitted from these
analyses because of small numbers of deaths.
Ischaemic heart disease was the most frequently occurring cause of
death in England and Wales as a whole and in each migrant group.
Table 3 confirms well established patterns of excess mortality in these
migrant groups.15,16,17 Compared with all people in England and Wales,
mortality was higher for cerebrovascular disease in people from the
Caribbean and for ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease
in those from the Indian subcontinent. Irish and Scottish migrants
showed higher mortality from all five causes of death.
In most migrant groups and for most of these causes of death,
marital status was a key determinant of mortality (Table 4).
18
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
Caribbean women were the exception, in that the association with
marital status was not statistically significant for these causes.
Excess mortality from cerebrovascular disease was seen in both
those who were not married and those married.
Whereas mortality from suicides of all not married women in
England and Wales was 59 per cent higher than the national
average, it was twice the average rate for those from the Indian
subcontinent (SMR 201). Scots (SMRs women 294, men 198) and
Irish (SMRs women 193, men 185) who were not married also
showed higher than average mortality from suicides. Mortality
from accidents and injuries was particularly high in Scots (women
SMR 273, men SMR 268) and Irish (women SMR 219, men SMR
266) who were not married. In both marital categories Scots and
Irish showed higher lung cancer mortality than all people in
England and Wales in the same marital categories.
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
Figure 4
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Rate ratios * (not married versus married) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for all causes, by country or region of birth and sex,
20–44 years, 1991–93
Women
Men
Rate ratio (log scale)
3.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
England and
Wales ✝
0.8
Caribbean
West/South
Africa
Indian
subcontinent
East
Africa
Scotland
Ireland
✝ All people resident in England and Wales
* Derived from rates directly standardised to the European population
Figure 5
Rate ratios * (not married versus married) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for all causes, by country or region of birth and sex,
45–64 years, 1991–93
Women
Rate ratio (log scale)
2.0
Men
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.8
England and
Wales ✝
Caribbean
West/South
Africa
East
Africa
Indian
subcontinent
Scotland
Ireland
✝ All people resident in England and Wales
* Derived from rates directly standardised to the European population
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
19
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 3
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for selected causes by country or region of birth and sex, 20–64 years,
1991–93, (England and Wales✝ = 100)
Women
Country of birth
All causes
Ischaemic heart
disease
Cerebrovascular
disease
Lung cancer
Suicides and
undetermined
Accidents & injuries
(minus suicides)
Men
Caribbean
Indian
subcontinent
Scotland
Ireland
SMR
95% CI
Deaths
104
(98-110)
1,095
SMR
95% CI
Deaths
99
(94-103)
1,877
127 *
(122-132)
2,391
115 *
(111-119)
3,191
89 *
(85-94)
1,680
107 *
(104-110)
4,114
129 *
(125-132)
4,596
135 *
(131-138)
5,994
100
(85-117)
146
175 *
(159-193)
423
127 *
(114-142)
324
129 *
(119-141)
521
60 *
(54-66)
369
150 *
(143-157)
1,736
117 *
(111-124)
1,253
121 *
(115-127)
1,706
SMR
95% CI
Deaths
178 *
(148-213)
115
132 *
(113-155)
151
131 *
(111-153)
150
118 *
(103-135)
202
169 *
(145-197)
160
163 *
(146-183)
299
111
(96-128)
189
130 *
(116-146)
288
SMR
95% CI
Deaths
32 *
(22-48)
26
34 *
(26-46)
46
164 *
(144-187)
227
143 *
(128-160)
308
59 *
(49-71)
114
48 *
(41-56)
171
146 *
(134-160)
479
157 *
(146-169)
693
SMR
95% CI
Deaths
49 *
(28-87)
12
115
(90-148)
66
153 *
(123-191)
78
144 *
(117-178)
87
59 *
(43-81)
38
73 *
(62-85)
146
149 *
(132-167)
284
135 *
(119-154)
244
93
(73-119)
63
201 *
(168-240)
122
160 *
(133-192)
117
80 *
(69-93)
172
177 *
(160-196)
363
189 *
(171-209)
371
103
(71-148)
29
SMR
95% CI
Deaths
Caribbean
121
(98-150)
83
Indian
subcontinent
Scotland
Ireland
✝ All people resident in England and Wales.
* SMR significantly different from 100.
Table 4
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for selected causes by country or region of birth, marital status and sex,
20–64 years, 1991–93, (England and Wales✝ = 100)
Country of birth
England and Wales
Caribbean
Indian
subcontinent
Scotland
95% CI
SMR
Ireland
SMR
95% CI
SMR
95% CI
SMR
95% CI
SMR
95% CI
Not married
Married
137 *
85 *
(133-141)
(83-87)
111
88
(87-141)
(70-110)
209 *
162 *
(176-248)
(144-182)
161 *
111
(134-193)
(97-127)
151 * (131-174)
117 * (105-130)
Not married
Married
135 *
87 *
(130-141)
(84-90)
162 *
184 *
(120-218)
(146-233)
175 *
120
(131-234)
(99-145)
168 *
114
(129-219)
(93-140)
112
(87-145)
120 * (102-141)
Not married
Married
128 *
89 *
(123-133)
(87-91)
43 *
25 *
(25-73)
(14-44)
42 *
32 *
(25-71)
(23-45)
210 *
144 *
(169-261)
(122-170)
161 * (133-195)
132 * (115-152)
Suicides and undetermined
Not married
Married
159 *
66 *
(151-168)
(63-70)
45
38 *
(19-108)
(16-91)
201 *
97
(127-319)
(73-129)
294 *
76
(220-393)
(52-111)
193 * (140-265)
98
(72-134)
Accidents and injuries (minus suicides)
Not married
Married
146 *
70 *
(139-153)
(67-73)
(65-184)
(54-154)
211 *
64 *
(141-315)
(46-89)
273 *
149 *
(209-356)
(116-192)
219 * (168-285)
108
(82-142)
Not married
Married
153 *
86 *
(151-155)
(85-87)
82 *
47 *
(70-96)
(41-54)
171 *
146 *
(147-198)
(139-153)
172 *
99
(156-190)
(93-106)
166 * (154-179)
99
(93-105)
Not married
Married
175 *
79 *
(169-181)
(77-81)
224 *
132 *
(176-285)
(107-163)
191 *
157 *
(135-270)
(139-177)
215 *
77
(173-268)
(63-93)
193 * (161-231)
103
(88-120)
Not married
Married
144 *
88 *
(140-148)
(86-90)
85
45 *
(64-112)
(35-58)
77
45 *
(52-115)
(38-53)
194 *
128 *
(164-230)
(115-143)
206 * (182-233)
133 * (121-146)
Suicides and undetermined
Not married
Married
144 *
62 *
(140-148)
(60-64)
88
26 *
(58-134)
(14-48)
119
53 *
(86-164)
(43-65)
198 *
97
(167-235)
(81-116)
185 * (155-221)
81 *
(66-99)
Accidents and injuries (minus suicides)
Not married
Married
139 *
62 *
(136-143)
(60-64)
157 *
70
(116-212)
(49-101)
101
66 *
(74-138)
(55-79)
268 *
101
(234-307)
(85-120)
266 * (232-305)
105
(88-125)
Women
Ischaemic heart disease
Cerebrovascular disease
Lung cancer
109
91
Men
Ischaemic heart disease
Cerebrovascular disease
Lung cancer
✝ All people resident in England and Wales.
* SMR significantly different from 100.
20
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
Mor tality adjusted for differences in marital
status distributions
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Table 5
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR) adjusted for marital
status for all causes, by country or region of birth and sex,
20–64 years, 1991–93, (England and Wales ✝ = 100)
We noted earlier that the proportions of migrants in each marital
status category differed in some groups from the population as a
whole. In particular there were proportionally more women of
African origin who were not married. In this section we examine
how much of the excess cause-specific mortality can be explained
by the differences in marital status distributions.
All causes
Table 5 shows all cause mortality adjusted for marital status.
Adjustment for marital status reduced the elevated mortality of
West/South African women from 42 per cent to 21 per cent and of
men from 26 per cent to 18 per cent. Excess mortality in Irish men
reduced from 35 per cent to 23 per cent. The reductions in excess
mortality of Caribbeans, Scots and Irish women were very small.
The SMRs for those of Indian origin did not lower with adjustment
because greater than average proportions were married, and these
married women and men also showed higher mortality than all
married people in England and Wales.
Men
age
age + marital status
Table 6 shows cause-specific mortality adjusted for marital status.
Adjusting for marital status reduced some of the excess mortality
from cerebrovascular disease in migrants from the Caribbean.
Among Scots and Irish, adjusting for marital status reduced some
of the excess from the five causes of death, but even after adjusting
for differences considerable excess mortality remained for most of
the causes of death examined. For example, adjusting for marital
status reduced the excess from suicides in Scottish women from 53
per cent to 47 per cent and in men from 49 per cent to 40 per cent.
DISCUSSION
These analyses relate to first generation migrants only. Second
generation migrants could not be identified in these analyses. In the
1991 Census, 54 per cent of those who described themselves as
‘Black Caribbeans’ and 44 per cent of those who described
themselves as ‘Indian’, ‘Pakistani’ or ‘Bangladeshi’ were born in the
UK.19 Inferences from this study will not necessarily reflect the
mortality experience of second generation migrants. We were unable
Table 6
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
African origin
Indian origin
Caribbean West/South
Africa
East
Indian
Africa subcontinent
Women
age
age + marital status
104
94
89 *
78 *
Scotland Ireland
142 *
121 *
127 *
126 *
99
101
127 *
125 *
115 *
112 *
126 *
118 *
123 *
135 *
107 *
119 *
129 *
125 *
135 *
123 *
✝ All people resident in England and Wales.
* SMR significantly different from 100.
to identify cohabiting couples because cohabitation is not recorded at
death registration. Persons identified as ‘separated’ at the 1991
Census were included with the married category. If the experience
of those who are separated reflects the pattern of higher mortality of
those divorced, this would be expected to reduce any differences in
mortality between those married and not married. Our analyses were
limited to current marital status and do not take into account any
impact of remarriage or dissolution of marriage on mortality.
In spite of these constraints these analyses present a consistent
feature across all migrant groups. People who were not married had
higher mortality than those married. In most migrant groups and
for most of these causes of death, marital status was a key
determinant of mortality. Caribbean women were the exception in
that there was no significant association with marital status for the
causes examined in this analysis. Adjusting for differences in
marital status between migrant groups did not significantly alter
their patterns of excess mortality relative to England and Wales.
Consistent mortality differentials by marital status across all
migrant groups support the argument that marriage influences
mortality risks, but this general framework needs to be considered
within the culturally appropriate context. Higher than average
proportions of Caribbean women were not married; a cultural
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR) adjusted for marital status for selected causes, by country or region of birth and sex, 20–64 years, 1991–93,
(England and Wales ✝ = 100)
Women
Caribbean
Men
Indian
subcontinent
Scotland
Ireland
Caribbean
Indian
subcontinent
Scotland
Ireland
Ischaemic heart disease
age
age + marital status
100
92
175 *
173 *
127 *
125 *
129 *
126 *
60 *
54 *
150 *
161 *
117 *
114 *
121 *
112 *
Cerebrovascular disease
age
age + marital status
178 *
161 *
132 *
135 *
131 *
128 *
118 *
116 *
169 *
145 *
163 *
183 *
111
106
130 *
120 *
Lung cancer
age
age + marital status
32 *
31 *
34 *
34 *
164 *
160 *
143 *
140 *
59 *
53 *
48 *
51 *
146 *
141 *
157 *
148 *
Suicides and undetermined
age
age + marital status
49 *
35 *
115
137 *
153 *
147 *
144 *
129 *
59 *
45 *
73 *
85
149 *
140 *
135 *
120 *
93
104
201 *
195 *
160 *
146 *
80 *
96
177 *
173 *
189 *
166 *
Accidents & injuries (minus suicides)
age
age + marital status
103
84
121
92
✝ All people resident in England and Wales.
* SMR significantly different from 100.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
21
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
feature also noted in studies in the Caribbean and the United
States.11 Although overall all-cause mortality in Caribbean women
was similar to that of all women in England and Wales, excess
mortality was observed for those who were never married or
widowed. It is plausible that socio-economic status contributes to
the lower risk of those married, as black women with higher
educational qualifications are more likely to be married.10
Marriage patterns are likely to vary within the group born in the
Indian subcontinent, which includes people born in Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and India. Because of small numbers in the
individual country of birth groupings, we were unable to
disaggregate further, but generally people from the Indian
subcontinent were more likely to be married than those from East
Africa. These differences in marital distribution would have
contributed to the larger mortality differentials by marital status
among those from East Africa.
For Scots and Irish, marital status was clearly important for the
causes of death examined. The effect was stronger for suicides and
accidents and injuries, as only those who were not married showed
excess mortality. Although suicides accounted for a small number
of deaths, these patterns give some indication of underlying factors
operating in terms of mental stress. Higher suicide mortality was
also seen for women from the Indian subcontinent who were not
married. Other studies have noted overall elevated rates of suicides
in this group of women 20, 21,22 and our analyses suggest this results
mainly from the higher mortality of those who were not married.
In conclusion, mortality was generally higher among those who
were not married than those who were, among each migrant group
and for most major causes of death. The patterns of overall excess
mortality relative to England and Wales from all causes and
specific causes were not significantly influenced by differences in
marital status distributions.
Key points
1 9 9 8
References
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
•
Migrants, aged 20-64 years who were not married
had higher mortality than those who were.
•
Differences in mortality by marital status were
generally greater in men than in women; this was not
so for migrants from the Indian subcontinent and
from East Africa.
•
•
In most migrant groups and for most of the selected
main causes of death, marital status was a key
determinant of mortality. Caribbean women were
the exception, in that the association with marital
status was not statistically significant for these causes.
Overall differences in mortality between people born
in other countries and those born in England and
Wales were not explained by different patterns of
marital status among the migrant groups.
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
A c k n ow l e d g e m e n t
22
We thank Ann Bethune, R Balarajan and the external referees for
their helpful comments.
22
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
Kisker E E and Goldman N. Perils of single life and benefits
of marriage. Social Biology 34: 135-152. (1987).
Lillard L A and Panis C W A. Marital status and mortality:
the role of health. Demography 33, 3: 313-327. (1996).
Rahman O. Excess mortality for the unmarried in rural
Bangladesh. International Journal of Epidemiology 22, 3:
445-456. (1993).
Waldron I, Hughes M E and Brooks TL. Marriage protection
and marriage selection prospective evidence for reciprocal
effects of marital status and health. Social Science and
Medicine 43, 1: 113-123. (1996).
Arber S. Class, paid employment and family roles: making
sense of structural disadvantage, gender and health status.
Social Science and Medicine 32, 4: 425-436. (1991).
Jones D R and Goldblatt P O. Cause of death in widow(er)s
and spouses. Journal of Biosocial Science 19, 1: 107-121.
(1987).
Fox A J and Goldblatt P O. Marriage and fertility histories.
Longitudinal Study: socio-demographic mortality
differentials. Series LS no.1: 91-111. HMSO (London,1982).
Moser K, Pugh P and Goldblatt P. Mortality and the social
classification of women. Series LS no.6: 145-162. HMSO
(London, 1990).
Murphy M and Charlton J. Family and household structure:
the association of social support and living arrangements
with health. The Health of Adult Britain: 1841-1994. Series
DS no.12: 171-186. The Stationery Office (London, 1997).
Heath S and Dale A. Household and family formation in
Great Britain: the ethnic dimension. Population Trends 77:
5-13. HMSO (London, 1994).
Mirza H. Young, female and black. Routledge (London,
1992).
Holdsworth C and Dale A. Ethnic variation in the impact of
child-birth on women’s employment & occupational
attainment. Occasional Paper 13. Cathie Marsh Centre for
Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester.
Marmot M, Adelstein A, and Bulusu L. Immigrant mortality
in England and Wales 1970-78. HMSO (London, 1984).
Balarajan R and Bulusu L. Mortality among immigrants in
England and Wales, 1979-83. In Mortality and Geography a review in the mid-1980s, England and Wales. Series DS 9:
104-121. HMSO (London, 1990).
Balarajan R and Raleigh V S. Patterns of Mortality Among
Bangladeshis in England and Wales. Ethnicity & Health 2, 1
/ 2: 5-12. (1997).
Wild S and McKeigue P. Cross sectional analysis of
mortality by country of birth in England and Wales, 1970-92.
British Medical Journal 314: 705-710. (1997).
Harding S and Maxwell R. Social class differences in
mortality among migrants living in England and Wales,
1991-93. Health Inequalities. Series DS no. 15, The
Stationery Office (London, 1997).
Nazroo J Y. The health of Britain’s ethnic minorities:
findings from a national survey. PSI (London, 1997).
OPCS. Ethnic group and country of birth. HMSO (London,
1993).
Raleigh V S. Suicide Patterns and Trends in People of Indian
Subcontinent and Caribbean Origin in England and Wales.
Ethnicity & Health 1, 1 (1): 55-63. (1996).
Raleigh V S and Balarajan R. Suicide and self-burning
among Indians and West Indians in England and Wales.
British Journal of Psychiatry 161: 365-8. (1992).
Raleigh V S Bulusu L and Balarajan R. Suicides among
immigrants from the Indian subcontinent. British Journal of
Psychiatry 156: 46-50. (1990).
9 91 1 | |
S Sp pr ri in ng g 1 19 99 98 8
P Po op pu ul la at ti o
i on n T Tr re en nd ds s
Differences in urban and
rural Britain
Chris Denham and Ian White
Census Division
ONS
Almost 90 per cent of people in Britain live in
urban areas and just over half the population
are resident in 66 urban areas with populations
of 100,000 or more. These and a wide range of
key results from the 1991 Census have been
published for all urban areas in Great Britain,
updating information that was prepared for the
first time after the 1981 Census.
This article summarises the socio-demographic
characteristics and distributions of urban and
rural populations in Great Britain and
describes how the distribution of urban
population has changed in the decade 1981-91.
INTRODUCTION
Statistics for urban areas have been prepared and published from
the last four censuses of population for two reasons. First, because
of the public’s interest in places that are more readily recognisable
as traditional towns and cities than are administrative areas, such as
local authorities, most of which comprise a mixture of both urban
and rural land; the identification of such urban areas are also useful
in setting local planning policies. Second, they provide information
on the characteristics of urban populations as a whole compared
with the population living outside urban areas – termed ‘rural’ in
this article.
THE CONCEPTS OF TOWNS AND URBAN AREAS
In reports on urban areas from the 1991 Census1-6 the definition of
a town put forward is the traditional concept of a free-standing
built-up area with a service core and with a sufficient number and
variety of shops and services, including perhaps a market, to make
it recognisably urban in character. It would have administrative,
commercial, educational, entertainment and other social and civic
functions and, in many cases, evidence of being historically well
established. A local network of roads and other means of transport
would focus on the area, and it would be a place drawing people
for services and employment from surrounding areas.
Urban areas in Britain are, however, more complex, On one hand,
historically free-standing towns have, over the years, grown and
coalesced into continuously built-up areas, while subsidiary central
places have developed as suburbs and satellite towns. This was
recognised in the definition of conurbations in the 1951 Census.7
On the other hand, some historic towns have stagnated and have
lost central place functions.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
23
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
for defining urban areas in the 1991 Census. In Scotland, the
method used was a mix of the ‘bricks and mortar’ approach and the
population density methods. (See Box A for a summary definition
of urban areas identified in the 1991 Census.)
DEFINITIONS OF TOWNS AND URBAN AREAS
There are several ways to define the concept of a town. It could be
defined:
(a) in terms of its administrative boundary, that is, the area
administered by a city, borough or town council. This is the method
that had been followed in censuses in Great Britain up to and
including 1971, but which, since local government re-organisation
in the mid-1970s, became almost entirely unsuited for the
definition of urban areas because many districts had been
deliberately drawn up to bring together towns and the surrounding
rural countryside into single administrative units;
SUMMARY FINDINGS
U r b a n a r e a s by s i z e o f re s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n
The table below shows the number of main urban areas (that is, not
including sub divisions of areas) in England and Wales and in
Scotland by size of resident population. The size categories have
been chosen to meet the requirements of Eurostat and other
international organisations.
(b) in terms of the built-up area (the ‘bricks and mortar’ approach);
Overall, nine out of ten people in Great Britain live in urban areas.
Over half of the population (53.4 per cent) live in areas with
populations of 100,000 or more, and almost half of these (24.9 per
cent of all people in Great Britain) live in the four urban
agglomerations in England with a population of over a million,
namely the Urban Areas of Greater London (7.6 million), West
Midlands (2.3 million), Greater Manchester (2.3 million) and West
Yorkshire (1.4 million). Although the table would appear to show
that there is no urban area in Scotland with a population of more
than a million (Glasgow, with 663 thousand population being the
largest single locality), the population of the largest continuously
urban area in Strathclyde7 (defined on a similar basis to such areas
in England and Wales – see Box A) of which Glasgow is a part, is a
little over 1.3 million. On the basis of this definition some 14.0
million people (27.4 per cent of the total population of Great
Britain) were resident in these larger urban agglomerations in 1991.
(c) in terms of the areas for which it provides services and facilities the functional area, which may embrace not only the built-up
area but also free-standing settlements outside the urban area
together with tracts of surrounding countryside if the population
in these surrounding areas depend on the urban centre for services
and employment;
(d) using density (either of population or of buildings) as an indicator
of urbanisation.
However, implementation of any of these approaches involves
some arbitrary decisions in drawing up boundaries because, in
practice, towns tend to merge physically and functionally with
neighbouring towns and their hinterlands.
Details of these possible approaches and their advantages and
disadvantages are described more fully in the published 1991
Census reports on urban and rural areas.
Though the total number of urban areas has increased from 2,231
in 1981 to 2,307 in 1991, the proportion of the population living in
urban Britain has remained at much the same level, declining only
slightly from 89.8 per cent to 89.6 per cent (see Table 2). A small
decline in the number of urban areas in the population range 50200 thousand residents from 103 in 1981 to 98 in 1991, chiefly in
the more metropolitan parts of the country, has been more than
matched by increases in the numbers of smaller urban areas in the
shire counties, particularly in the population range of 5-10
thousand (379 to 407) and under 2,000 (409 to 460).
In England and Wales, two methods were considered: the first
based on a combination of population density and land use; and the
second on the extent of urban development indicated on Ordnance
Survey (OS) maps. The latter was selected as it met the needs of
both the then Office of Population Censuses and Survey (OPCS)
and Department of the Environment (DOE) and enabled
internationally comparable statistics to be produced for Eurostat
and the United Nations. Basically, the same criteria were adopted
Table 1
Number of urban areas by size of resident population, 1991 Census
Size of area
(residents)
Great Britain
Number
of areas*
England and Wales
Percentage
of total
population
Number
of areas*
Scotland
Percentage
of total
population
Number
of areas
Percentage
of total
population
2,307
89.6
1,859
89.7
448
88.9
and over
999,999
499,999
199,999
99,999
4
6
23
33
65
24.9
7.6
12.8
8.1
8.4
4
5
22
31
61
27.4
7.0
13.2
8.2
8.7
1
1
2
4
13.3
8.0
7.0
5.0
20,000 - 49,999
10,000 - 19,999
5,000 9,999
2,000 4,999
Under 2,000
167
264
407
878
460
9.5
6.8
5.2
5.0
1.3
141
213
323
756
303
8.7
6.0
4.6
4.8
1.0
26
51
84
122
157
17.7
14.5
11.6
7.5
4.4
All urban areas
1,000,000
500,000 200,000 100,000 50,000 -
* Does not include sub divisions of urban areas in England and Wales
24
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
Table 2
Size of area
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Urban areas and cumulative resident population, by size of area, Great Britain, 1981 and 1991 Censuses
1981
1991
Number
of areas
Cumulative population
(thousands)
Number
of areas
(per cent)
Cumulative population
(thousands)
(per cent)
1,000,000 and over
500,000 - 999,999
200,000 - 499,999
100,000 - 199,999
50,000 - 99,999
4
6
22
28
75
13,692
17,717
24,302
28,112
33,312
25.6
33.1
45.4
52.5
62.2
4
6
23
33
65
13,671
17,827
24,835
29,299
33,886
24.9
32.5
45.2
53.4
61.7
20,000 - 49,999
10,000 - 19,999
5,000 - 9,999
2,000 - 4,999
Under 2,000
Total areas
167
260
379
881
409
2,231
38,473
42,076
44,716
47,447
48,086
71.8
78.6
83.5
88.6
89.8
167
264
407
878
460
2,307
39,118
42,858
45,716
48,461
49,190
71.3
78.1
83.3
88.3
89.6
The 60 most populous urban areas are listed in Table 3 along with
their 1981 Census ranking. Population in the Greater London
Urban Area increased by 85 thousand during the intercensal decade
but declined in each of the other three main urban agglomerations
in England (by over 106 thousand in total). Many of the apparent
increases in the urban area population illustrated in the table reflect
the merger of one or more separate 1981 areas to form larger
aggregates. For example, Liverpool UA now includes as one of its
sub divisions, the former urban area of St Helens which had a 1981
population of almost 172 thousand residents. Similarly, the 1991
urban areas of Reading/Wokingham and Dearne Valley were both
formed from the mergers of substantially populated 1981 urban
areas.
Box A
The 1991 Census definition of urban
areas
four 1991 Census enumeration districts (EDs). This
resulted in the exclusion of some areas of urban land
with more than 1,000 population, but very few above
2,000. In a very few cases more than 1,000 people may
have been living in free-standing blocks of land of less
than 20 hectares.
The starting point in the definition of urban areas in
England and Wales is the identification of areas with
land use which is irreversibly urban in character. Such
urban land use comprises:
In Scotland the method used to define urban areas
(often referred to as ‘localities’) was a mix of ‘built-up
area’ and ‘density’ approaches. In essence each area was
defined as a set of urban postcodes classified as such if
they had a population density of at least 5 residents/
hectare, and/or had been identified as in an locality in
the 1981 Census, and then groups of adjoining urban
postcodes were then identified and denoted as a locality
if the number of residents in all the postcodes in the
group was 500 or more.
(a) permanent structures and the land on which they
are situated (built-up site);
(b) transportation corridors (such as roads, railways,
rivers and canals) which have built-up sites on one
or both sides, or which link up built-up sites which
are less than 50 metres apart;
(c) transportation features such as airport and
operational airfields, railway yards, motorway
service areas and car parks;
(d) mine buildings (but mineral workings and quarries
are excluded); and
(e) any area completely surrounded by built-up sites.
Although the methods of identifying urban areas in
England and Wales and localities in Scotland are not
identical, the essential concept of urban land and the
use of built-up areas in definition is very similar. In
summary, the total urban (and thus, rural) population in
Scotland is defined by a specific area size threshold; this
is not strictly comparable with the basis of definition in
England and Wales, where an urban area contains four
or more EDs. However, the picture of urban and rural
populations north and south of the border is not
seriously affected by this difference in comparability
since urban areas in the 1,000 to 2,000 population range
account for a relatively small proportion of the total
urban population. Thus individual urban areas and
localities may be compared and contrasted throughout
Great Britain.
Areas such as playing fields and golf courses are
excluded unless they are completely surrounded by
built-up sites as in (e).
The prerequisite for the recognition of an urban area is
that the area of urban land should extend for 20
hectares or more. Separate areas of urban land are
linked if less than 50 metres apart.The critical factor in
the recognition of an urban area is that it should have a
minimum population of approximately 1,000 persons.
However, as there was no prior information on the
1991 populations of areas of urban land, a proxy
threshold was applied by excluding areas with less than
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
25
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 3
T r e n d s
Resident population (000s)
1991 Census
1 9 9 8
Urban area (UA)
1981 Census
(and ranking)
Resident population (000s)
1991 Census
1981 Census
(and ranking)
7,651.6
2,296.2
2,277.3
1,446.0
886.0
838.0
663.0
633.4
613.7
522.8
7,566.6
2,338.8
2,319.6
1,467.4
776.4
747.8
754.6
634.6
593.8
517.4
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(7)
(6)
(8)
(9)
(10)
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
The Medway Towns
Luton/Dunstable
Dearne Valley UA††
Aberdeen
Sunderland UA
Norwich UA
Northampton UA
Wigan UA
Dundee
Milton Keynes UA
222.4
221.3
211.4
189.7
189.3
185.4
183.1
174.4
159.0
155.5
215.0
211.6
127.2
186.8
201.0
180.5
154.2
178.4
172.3
93.3
(29)
(31)
(47)
(34)
(32)
(35)
(39)
(36)
(37)
(-)
Brighton/Worthing/Littlehampton
Leicester UA
Portsmouth UA
Edinburgh*
Teesside UA
The Potteries
Bournemouth UA
Reading/Wokingham†
Coventry/Bedworth
Kingston upon Hull UA
437.6
416.6
409.3
401.9
369.6
368.0
358.3
335.8
331.2
310.6
423.1
404.4
406.8
408.8
381.5
373.7
319.1
194.1
347.9
322.1
(11)
(14)
(13)
(12)
(15)
(16)
(18)
(33)
(17)
(19)
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
Mansfield UA
Warrington UA
Burnley/Nelson
Swindon
Grimsby/Cleethorpes
Blackburn/Darwen
Peterborough UA
Ipswich UA
Doncaster UA
Slough UA
155.0
152.5
149.9
145.2
136.5
135.9
134.8
133.3
128.9
126.7
154.5
129.1
153.3
127.3
136.6
140.4
113.4
129.7
131.6
122.2
(38)
(45)
(40)
(46)
(42)
(41)
(53)
(44)
(43)
(49)
Cardiff UA
Southampton UA
Swansea UA
Birkenhead UA
Southend UA
Blackpool UA
Preston UA
Plymouth UA
Aldershot UA
Derby UA
308.4
276.8
273.1
270.2
266.7
261.4
256.4
245.3
231.2
223.8
279.8
269.9
279.2
280.6
262.3
258.9
244.6
238.6
219.7
218.0
(21)
(23)
(22)
(20)
(24)
(25)
(26)
(27)
(28)
(30)
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
58
60
Gloucester UA
York UA
Hastings/Bexhill
Telford**
Oxford UA
Thanet UA
High Wycombe UA
Southport/Formby§
Crawley UA
Newport (Gwent) UA
126.1
124.6
120.0
119.3
118.8
116.7
116.4
116.3
115.6
115.5
106.5
123.1
109.6
105.9
113.8
111.4
107.2
115.4
106.2
115.9
(57)
(48)
(55)
(59)
(52)
(54)
(56)
(51)
(58)
(50)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Greater London UA
West Midlands UA
Greater Manchester UA
West Yorkshire UA
Tyneside
Liverpool UA+
Glasgow*
Sheffield UA
Nottingham UA
Bristol UA
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
†
††
**
§
S p r i n g
Urban areas with populations of 100,000 or more in 1991
Urban area (UA)
+
*
9 1 |
The 1991 area includes St Helens, formerly a separate urban area in 1981
On the basis of the definition of an urban area in England and Wales, the Greater Glasgow UA (see text) had a 1991 Census population of 1,323,089 and would have been ranked 5th. Edinburgh UA
(comprising the urban localities of Edinburgh and Musselburgh) had a 1991 Census population of 422,540 and would have been ranked 12th.
The 1981 figure refers to the former Reading UA. In 1981 Wokingham was a separate urban area.
The 1981 figure refers to the former Barnsley UA. In 1981 Dearne Valley was a separate urban area.
The 1981 figures relates to the aggregate of the three former separate urban areas of Telford Dawley (28,645), Telford North (53012) and Telford South (23,318).
The 1981 figure relates to the aggregate of the two former separate urban areas of Southport (88,596) and Formby (26,852).
On the other hand the notable increase in the population of Milton
Keynes Urban Area reflects more the urbanisation of the
surrounding rural land particularly to the north west around Stony
Stratford and to the north east linking with Newport Pagnell.
Not all urban areas identified in the 1981 Census retained their
urban status in 1991. Villages such as Orsett (in Essex), Haxey
(Humberside) and Woodhall Spa (Lincolnshire) all had urban
populations over 2,000 in 1981 but failed to meet the criteria to be
defined as urban in 1991. In contrast, there were some 133 areas in
England and Wales, newly classified as urban in 1991. Many of the
larger of these, such as Bentley Health (5,984 population in 1991,
south of Solihull), Ingleby (4,325, in Teesside), and Martlesham
Heath (3,113, east of Ipswich) are sub divisions of larger urban
areas (in these cases the Urban Areas of West Midlands, Teesside
and Ipswich respectively). But others have become significantly
large separate urban areas, such as North Darent (3,292 population,
south of Dartford) and Pannal (2,778, south of Harrogate). Figure 1
shows the distribution of all urban areas throughout Great Britain,
separately identifying the 60 with the largest resident populations
listed in Table 3.
The changing face of urban and rural Britain
Some 21 of the counties in England and Wales and the former
Scottish Regions and Islands Areas have more than double the
national proportion of rural population (10.4 per cent) (see Table 4
and Figure 2). Of these, 11 counties are in England, 4 in Wales and
26
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
6 in Scotland (including each of the three Islands Areas). In total
these counties contain 2.5 million of a total of 5.7 million people in
rural areas (43.3 per cent). Ten have proportions of rural population
at least three times the national average, and all are remote from
the main urban agglomerations (five being in Scotland and a
further three in Wales). The highest proportions with a rural
population are found in the three Scottish Islands Areas (Western
Isles 66.9 per cent, Shetland 62.7 per cent and Orkney 57.4 per
cent) followed by the Welsh counties of Powys (57.1 per cent) and
Dyfed (43.1 per cent). Cornwall (with 36.1 per cent) and Somerset
(31.4 per cent) are the English counties with the highest
proportions of people in rural areas, ranking seventh and tenth
respectively.
All but one of these counties/Scottish Regions (Devon) were in the
top 21 most rural parts of the country in 1981. Oxfordshire
(previously ranked 20th) dropped to 23rd in the 1991 rankings.
While, overall, the national proportion of the population resident in
rural areas has remained at just about the same level since the 1981
Census (10.38 per cent compared with 10.44 per cent), the
population in some of these more rural parts of the country has
become more concentrated in urban settlements. This was
particularly so in Scotland, where the proportions of urban
populations in each of the three Island Areas, Highland, Dumfries
and Galloway, and Borders all increased, as did the proportions in
East Anglia, much of the West Midlands region, and in the counties
bordering between the South East and South West regions.
S t a t i s t i c s
91|
Figure 1
Spring 1998
P o p u l a t i o n Tr e n d s
Urban areas in Great Britain, 1991 Census
KEY
The 60 Urban Areas with the largest
resident populations, listed in Table 3.
O f f i c e fo r N a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c s
27
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 2
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Proportion of the resident population in rural areas, counties and Scottish regions, 1991 Census
Western Isles
Shetland
Grampian
Highland
Orkney
Tayside
Fife
Central
Lothian
Strathclyde
Borders
Dumfries &
Galloway
Northumberland
Tyne & Wear
Percentage of resident
population in rural areas
Durham
Cleveland
Cumbria
Under 5.2
5.3 - 10.4
North Yorkshire
10.5 - 20.8
20.9 - 31.2
Lancashire
31.3 and over
Greater
Merseyside Manchester
National percentage = 10.4
South
Yorkshire
De r
b ys
Cheshire
Clwyd
Lincoln
Notts
h ir
Gwynedd
Humberside
West
Yorkshire
e
Staffs
Norfolk
Leics
Shropshire
West
Midlands
Powys
Hereford &
Worcester
Warws
No
rt h
an
Suffolk
Oxon
ck
Glos
Bu
S Glam.
Cambs
Beds
Dyfed
Gwent
W Glam.
M Glam.
ts
Berks
Avon
Essex
Herts
s
Greater
London
Wiltshire
Kent
Surrey
Somerset
Hampshire
West
Sussex
Devon
Dorset
Isle of Wight
Cornwall
28
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
East
Sussex
9 1
Table 4
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
The most rural counties and Scottish Regions
County/Scottish Region
Percentage of population resident in rural areas
1991
County/Scottish Region
1981 and rank
Percentage of population resident in rural areas
1991
1981 and rank
Western Isles
Shetland
Orkney
Powys
Dyfed
66.9
62.7
57.4
57.1
43.1
68.5
68.6
58.5
55.7
42.1
(2)
(1)
(3)
(4)
(6)
36
37
38
39
40
West Sussex
Leicestershire
Humberside
Bedfordshire
Gwent
12.1
11.8
11.7
11.5
10.9
12.6
11.2
11.5
12.9
9.9
(36)
(40)
(38)
(34)
(44)
6
7
8
9
10
Gwynedd
Cornwall
Highland
Dumfries and Galloway
Somerset
41.1
36.1
35.7
34.8
31.4
43.9
35.4
39.5
36.4
34.9
(5)
(9)
(7)
(8)
(10)
41
42
43
44
45
Derbyshire
Staffordshire
Essex
Cheshire
Central
10.8
10.6
10.5
10.5
9.4
11.1
11.0
10.8
11.4
8.8
(41)
(42)
(43)
(39)
(47)
11
12
13
14
15
Borders
Lincolnshire
Norfolk
Cumbria
Suffolk
30.3
30.2
29.7
29.1
29.0
31.5
29.5
30.7
27.7
29.4
(11)
(13)
(12)
(17)
(14)
46
47
48
49
50
Hampshire
Surrey
Fife
Lancashire
Mid Glamorgan
8.9
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.0
9.4
8.6
9.4
8.7
6.6
(46)
(49)
(45)
(48)
(53)
16
17
18
19
20
North Yorkshire
Shropshire
Hereford and Worcester
Clwyd
Devon
28.8
26.8
26.2
22.6
22.1
27.9
28.7
27.4
20.8
20.4
(16)
(15)
(18)
(21)
(25)
51
52
53
54
55
Berkshire
West Glamorgan
Nottinghamshire
Avon
Hertfordshire
7.8
7.4
7.0
6.8
6.4
7.5
6.1
7.3
7.2
6.6
(50)
(55)
(52)
(51)
(54)
21
22
23
24
25
Wiltshire
Northumberland
Oxfordshire
Gloucestershire
Grampian
21.6
20.8
20.6
20.4
20.0
24.2
20.3
22.3
20.5
20.6
(19)
(26)
(20)
(24)
(23)
56
57
58
59
60
Strathclyde
Lothian
Cleveland
West Yorkshire
South Yorkshire
4.8
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.2
4.6
4.0
3.0
3.4
2.9
(56)
(57)
60)
(58)
(61)
26
27
28
29
30
Northamptonshire
Isle of Wight
Warwickshire
Cambridgeshire
Tayside
17.6
17.0
17.0
16.7
15.3
17.8
15.8
19.0
20.8
15.5
(28)
(29)
(27)
(22)
(30)
61
62
63
64
65
66
South Glamorgan
Tyne and Wear
Merseyside
Greater Manchester
West Midlands
Greater London
3.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.1
3.4
1.1
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.1
(59)
(62)
(64)
(63)
(65)
(66)
31
32
33
34
35
Durham
Buckinghamshire
Dorset
Kent
East Sussex
13.8
13.7
13.0
13.0
12.3
12.7
13.9
14.5
13.3
12.3
(35)
(32)
(31)
(33)
(37)
1
2
3
4
5
In much of the North of England, in the extreme South West and in
West and Central Wales, however, there was a move towards an
increasing proportion of the population living in rural areas.
number of socio-demographic characteristics measured by the
1991 Census within urban and rural areas at either the national or
county/Scottish Region area level.
In many of the home counties and in those counties in a band from
Severn to the Humber there was very little change in the urban and
rural split in the population. In parts of Central Scotland this was
also the case.
Density of population
Greater London, not surprisingly, has the highest proportion of
population in urban areas (99.9 per cent), and the six of the next
seven most urban parts of Britain are the English metropolitan
counties. South Glamorgan (ranking sixth overall) is the most
urban county in Wales (96.8 per cent). Strathclyde Region, even
though it stretches over a large part of western Scotland, is
dominated by the Greater Glasgow area and ranks as the eleventh
most urban county/Region in Britain with 95.2 per cent of its
population concentrated in localities.
U r b a n a n d r u r a l d i f f e re n c e s
Some census characteristics vary by size of urban area, and there
are also many differences between the characteristics of rural and
urban areas in general. However, the grouping of urban and rural
areas as aggregates often generalises many regional and local
variations. The following paragraphs in this article describe a
There is a marked difference between population density in urban
and rural areas as a whole. Urban areas occupy just 6.0 per cent of
the total land area in Great Britain (8.3 per cent in England, 3.1 per
cent in Wales and 2.8 per cent in Scotland). Average density of the
urban population in Great Britain is 36.0 persons per hectare (39.1
persons/hectare in England, 36.9 in Wales and 20.6 in Scotland)
compared with a density of just 0.26 persons/hectare in rural
Britain. In England there tends to be a direct relationship between
population size and density of urban areas (see Table 5), such that
the highest densities overall occur in the main urban
agglomerations (almost 44 persons/hectare), while the urban areas
of under 2,000 residents have an average density of 27 persons/
hectare. A similar pattern is found in Scotland (though the level of
density is consistently lower than in England), but in Wales the
differential in density is far less marked, with the highest average
densities found among the medium-sized urban areas in the
population ranges 50-100 thousand and 10-20 thousand.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
29
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 5
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
Population density by size of urban area, 1991 Census
Population size
(residents)
Density (persons/hectare*)
1 9 9 8
Table 6
Urban/rural area
Age structure, urban and rural areas, 1991 Census
Percentage of resident population by age
0–4
England
Wales
Scotland
All urban areas
39.0
36.9
20.6
36.0
1,000,000 and over
500,000 - 999,999
200,000 - 499,999
100,000 - 199,999
50,000 - 99,999
20,000 - 49,999
10,000 - 19,999
5,000 - 9,999
2,000 - 4,999
Under 2,000
43.9
42.1
40.5
38.1
37.6
36.6
34.5
33.4
30.5
27.1
37.1
37.2
44.9
36.2
37.3
36.6
36.2
26.9
33.1
32.7
29.3
28.6
25.9
24.2
16.3
11.8
6.9
43.9
40.4
39.6
37.2
37.3
34.2
32.0
27.7
25.3
14.4
All rural areas
0.39
0.27
0.07
0.26
18–29
Great Britain
45–pensionable age*
75 and over
Males
* For note on the hectare figures used to calculate density see Box B.
Females
England
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
6.6
6.8
5.6
18.3
18.7
14.6
19.2
18.8
22.9
2.4
2.4
2.7
4.7
4.7
4.4
Wales
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
6.6
6.8
5.8
16.9
17.4
14.8
19.7
19.2
21.9
2.5
2.4
2.6
4.8
4.9
4.5
Scotland
Total
Localities
Rural areas
6.4
6.4
6.2
18.1
18.5
15.5
19.5
19.2
21.4
2.1
2.1
2.4
4.4
4.4
4.1
Great Britain total
6.6
18.2
19.3
2.4
4.6
A ge s t r u c t u re
* 65 for men and 60 for women
The percentage distribution of population by broad age group
showed some clear differences between urban and rural
populations overall (see Table 6). In particular, the proportion of
very young children (aged 0-4) were higher in urban areas in both
England and Wales (6.8 per cent) than in rural areas (5.6 per cent
and 5.8 per cent respectively). A similar but less marked pattern
was exhibited in Scotland (6.4 per cent and 6.2 per cent
respectively).
Young adults (aged 18-29) also comprised a higher proportion of
the total population in urban areas than in rural parts of the country.
In urban areas in England, for example, 18.7 per cent of the
population were in this age group compared with 14.6 per cent in
rural areas, but the percentage difference was again less marked in
Scotland (18.5 per cent and 15.5 per cent) and even less in Wales
(17.4 per cent and 14.8 per cent). In contrast, the proportion of the
population who were aged 45-pensionable age was greater in rural
areas (22.9 per cent in England) than in urban areas (18.8 per cent),
reflecting the tendency for people to move to more rural parts of
the country in their later working ages. Again this difference was
less marked in Scotland and Wales.
It was generally the case that proportionately more elderly men
(aged 75 and over) lived in rural areas than in urban parts of the
country (2.7 per cent in English urban areas for example, compared
with 2.4 per cent), but that the reverse was true for elderly women.
Limiting long-term illness
Rural areas, generally, had lower proportions of residents in
households with a limiting long-term illness recorded in the 1991
Census. This was the case among all age groups, and particularly
so in Scotland where only 9.5 per cent of residents in households in
rural areas reported having a long-term illness compared with 13.3
per cent in localities (see Table 7). In Wales, where incidence of
long-term illness was generally higher than elsewhere in Great
Britain, the rural/urban difference was nevertheless still evident
(13.7 per cent compared with 17.0 per cent).
Ethnic group
The higher proportions of the population in non-White ethnic
groups recorded in urban areas generally results from the
concentration of ethnic minority groups in the metropolitan areas,
30
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
Table 7
Urban/rural area
Long-term illness, urban and rural areas, 1991 Census
Percentage of residents in households within each age group
with a long-term illness
All
ages
Under
pensionable
age*
Pensionable
age* and
over
75 and
over
England
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
12.0
12.2
10.1
6.6
6.8
5.3
36.5
37.1
30.9
48.6
49.1
43.8
Wales
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
16.4
17.0
13.7
10.0
10.4
8.2
42.5
44.1
35.9
52.8
54.2
46.9
Scotland
Total
Localities
Rural areas
12.9
13.3
9.5
8.0
8.3
5.5
36.1
36.8
29.6
47.3
47.9
41.8
Great Britain total
12.4
6.9
36.8
48.7
* 65 for men and 60 for women
particularly in Greater London (20.2 per cent) and West Midlands
(14.7 per cent) where there is very little rural land. Urban areas in
Leicestershire and Bedfordshire also have particularly high
proportions of ethnic minority groups (12.4 per cent and 11.0 per
cent respectively. Generally it is the case that the larger the urban
area the higher is the proportion of non-White ethnic groups in the
population (see Table 8).
Among the main ethnic minority groups themselves there are
distinct differences in the patterns of settlement. Whereas there is
no significant difference overall between the proportions of the
ethnic minority groups in urban and rural areas in England and
Wales who are Black (30.0 per cent and 29.0 per cent respectively),
the proportion who are Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis in
urban areas (49.3 per cent) is almost double that in rural areas (25.0
per cent). And for Chinese the situation is reversed, with just 4.9
per cent of the total ethnic minority population in urban areas
belonging to this group compared with 7.8 per cent of the
population in rural parts of the country.
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Ty p e o f h o u s e h o l d a c c o m m o d a t i o n
three times the proportion in urban areas (16.7 per cent) (see Table
9). In Wales and Scotland the proportions in rural areas were even
greater (54.1 per cent and 58.1 per cent respectively). Areas with
the highest proportions of detached housing tend to occur in the
more remoter rural parts of the country. They were highest in each
of the three Scottish Islands Areas – Orkney (82.8 per cent),
Western Isles (76.7 per cent) and Shetland (71.8 per cent). On
mainland Britain the highest proportions occurred in the Highland
and Grampian Regions (66.8 per cent and 64.9 per cent
respectively), with the rural parts of South Glamorgan, Powys and
Dyfed each having more than 60 per cent of households living in
such housing. In England this proportion was highest in the rural
parts of Lincolnshire (60.6 per cent), Nottinghamshire (59.0 per
cent) and Shropshire (58.8 per cent).
There was a marked difference between urban and rural areas in
the types of accommodation occupied by households. In England, a
half of all households in rural areas lived in detached houses –
In contrast, rural parts of the country contained about half the
proportion of terraced accommodation that occurred in urban areas.
In both England and Wales, terraced housing was the most
The profile of different urban ethnic minority settlement is also
distinctive when looking at the size of area. The proportions of the
non-White ethnic population who are in the Black groups are
greatest in those areas of over 500,000 population (around a third)
and in the smallest urban areas (30.6 per cent), and are at the
lowest levels in the medium-sized urban areas ranging from 50 to
500 thousand population (around one in five) (see Figure 3). In
contrast, the proportions of Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis
are greatest in these medium-sized areas and then tend to decrease
with decreasing size of area. The proportions who are Chinese are
greatest in the smaller towns with a population range 2-20
thousand.
Percentage of resident population within non-white ethnic groups in urban areas in England and Wales, 1991 Census
Figure 3
70
Black
60
Indian, Pakistani
and Bangladeshi
Percentage
50
Chinese
40
30
20
10
0
1,000,000
and over
500,000–
999,999
200,000–
499,999
100,000–
199,999
50,000–
99,999
20,000–
49,999
10,000–
19,999
5,000–
9,999
2,000–
4,999
Under 2,000
Size of urban areas (resident population)
Table 8
Ethnic group by size of urban area in England and Wales,
1991 Census
Population size
(residents) of
urban area
Percentage
of resident
population
in non-white
groups
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Housing, urban and rural areas, 1991 Census
Urban/rural
area
Percentage of residents within
non-white groups who are:
Black
Table 9
Detached
Chinese
1,000,000 and over
500,000 - 999,999
200,000 - 499,999
100,000 - 199,999
50,000 - 99,999
14.8
3.6
4.8
4.6
2.7
33.7
33.8
17.2
20.5
19.0
47.6
39.7
63.6
58.1
54.8
3.8
8.8
5.1
5.7
8.3
20,000 - 49,999
10,000 - 19,999
5,000 - 9,999
2,000 - 4,999
Under 2,000
1.6
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
22.8
23.4
26.6
24.6
30.6
38.7
30.3
24.7
27.8
21.2
11.8
16.1
17.0
13.5
9.5
All urban areas
All rural areas
6.5
0.7
30.0
29.0
49.3
25.0
4.9
7.8
England and Wales total
5.9
30.0
49.0
5.0
Percentage of household accommodation
Tenure
Terraced Purpose Not main Owner occupied
- built
residence
flat
Owned Buying
outright
Publicly
rented
England
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
20.0
16.7
50.0
29.2
31.0
15.6
15.3
16.6
2.7
1.2
1.0
3.2
24.3
23.5
31.9
43.3
43.5
41.9
19.8
20.8
10.3
Wales
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
24.0
16.8
54.1
33.3
37.3
16.5
8.9
10.4
2.6
2.3
1.3
6.3
31.0
29.2
39.1
39.7
40.3
37.2
19.0
20.6
11.9
Scotland
Total
Localities
Rural areas
17.3
12.2
58.1
23.2
24.4
13.2
37.0
41.2
3.5
1.7
1.0
7.8
16.4
14.9
30.2
35.7
36.2
31.0
37.9
40.0
15.8
Great Britain
19.9
28.8
17.0
1.3
23.9
42.4
21.4
S t a t i s t i c s
31
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
common type of accommodation in urban areas (31 per cent),
whereas in Scottish localities more households lived in purposebuilt flats (41.2 per cent).
Box B
Accommodation that were not being used as a main residence at
the time of the 1991 Census was three times more common in rural
areas in England (3.2 per cent) than they were in urban areas (1.0
per cent). Such accommodation (mainly holiday homes or second
residences) was even more common in Scottish and Welsh rural
areas (7.8 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively) and particularly in
the Highland Region (14.4 per cent) and Gwynedd (13.8 per cent).
Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly also had more than one tenth of its
housing stock not used as a main residence.
Hectare figures for urban and rural totals
Most of the larger urban areas and some smaller urban
areas straddle administrative boundaries, but users have
shown an interest in the population defined as living in
urban or rural areas, as a whole, within the
administrative units of counties and Scottish Regions.
Census enumeration districts (EDs) do not straddle
county boundaries however, so statistics for all EDs
forming those parts of urban areas within each county
have been aggregated to urban totals. These in turn were
aggregated to urban totals for England and Wales,
Scotland, and Great Britain respectively. The differences
between national, county and Scottish Region totals and
the respective urban totals were calculated and appear
as rural totals.
The tenure profiles of households in urban and rural areas were
fairly consistent across Great Britain. Urban areas contained more
public sector housing than did rural areas in all parts of the country.
In both England and Wales one in five urban households lived in
publicly rented accommodation, but in urban Scotland this
proportion was doubled (see Table 9), reflecting generally the
higher levels of public housing in Scotland compared with the rest
of Great Britain.
The hectare figures for urban and rural land for each of
the England and Wales counties and Scottish Regions at
the time of the 1991 Census were calculated from
digitised boundaries prepared by the Ordnance Survey
and GRO Scotland. These calculations are dependent on
the scale and edition of the map base used, and thus the
results could differ slightly from other calculations of
areas and densities. In fact, there is no recognised
definitive measure of land area to which hectare and
density calculations can be benchmarked, but the large
relative difference between urban and rural parts of
counties and Regions are unaffected by such differences
in method.
In contrast, households owning their own homes outright were
generally more common in rural Britain than in urban areas,
reflecting the fact that many of these home owners were likely to
be older householders who had retired to the country. This pattern
was particularly evident in Scotland, where more than twice as
many outright owner-occupiers lived in rural areas (30.2 per cent)
than in urban areas (14.9 per cent). The pattern among households
still buying their homes, however, was a little different. Outside of
Greater London and the metropolitan counties urban areas tended
to have proportionately more such households than did rural areas,
though exceptions were found in half a dozen or more shire
counties in England and Wales, notably in Avon, Humberside,
Lancashire, Nottinghamshire, and Mid and South Glamorgan.
Rooms and amenities
Table 10
Incidence of overcrowding – that is, where a household has more
than an average of 1.0 persons per room – was twice as prevalent
in urban areas in England (2.2 per cent of all households) than in
rural areas (1.1 per cent), where, on average, households occupied
almost one room more than in urban areas (see Table 10). A similar
pattern was found in Scotland where 3.7 per cent of urban
households were overcrowded compared with 2.6 per cent of rural
households. There was a much less marked urban/rural differential
in Wales.
Proportionately more urban households in England lacked central
heating (18.8 per cent) than did rural households (16.3 per cent),
but the reverse was the case in Wales, where over a fifth (22.3 per
cent) of rural households lacked this amenity, and in Scotland,
where over a quarter (25.3 per cent) were lacking.
Urban/rural
area
England
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
Wales
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
Scotland
Total
Localities
Rural areas
Great Britain
Households in rural areas have need of, and show, a much greater
degree of car availability. In England only 14.6 per cent of rural
households have no access to a car compared with almost a third
(32.4 per cent) of households in urban areas; and 42.2 per cent of
rural households have two or more cars available – almost double
the proportion for urban households. A similar pattern exists in
Wales, but in Scotland the proportion of urban households without
access to a car was almost one in two (45.4 per cent).
The concentration of tenements and blocks of flats in urban areas
in Scotland is shown by the proportion of accommodation above
32
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
Rooms and amenities, urban and rural areas, 1991 Census
Rooms per Percentage of households with
household
Over 1.0
No
No car
persons
central
per room heating
2 or
more
cars
Not on
ground
floor*
5.1
5.0
5.9
2.1
2.2
1.1
18.5
18.8
16.3
32.4
34.3
14.6
24.0
22.0
42.2
-
5.4
5.3
5.8
1.6
1.7
1.5
18.5
17.7
22.3
32.3
35.4
18.2
22.1
19.2
34.9
-
4.5
4.4
5.4
3.6
3.7
2.6
22.3
21.9
25.3
42.6
45.4
18.4
16.2
14.2
33.2
26.7
29.3
3.7
5.0
2.2
18.9
33.4
23.1
-
* Question on floor level of accomodation only asked in Scotland.
ground floor level. Some 29.3 per cent of households in localities
live in such accommodation compared with just 3.7 per cent in
rural parts of the country. This proportion increased with size of
urban area reaching almost a half of all households in the largest
areas (See Figure 4). (Comparable figures for the rest of Great
Britain are not available from the 1991 Census as the question on
lowest floor level of accommodation was not asked in England
and Wales.)
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
Figure 4
S p r i n g
Table 11
Percentage of households not on ground floor by size
of urban area, Scotland, 1991 Census
Urban/rural
area
60
England
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
Wales
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
Scotland
Total
Localities
Rural areas
50
40
Percentage
|
30
20
Great Britain
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Social class (based on occupation), urban and rural areas,
1991 Census
Percentage of households with head in Social Class*
I
II
III(N)
III(M)
IV
V
4.2
4.1
5.3
19.3
18.5
27.0
8.5
8.7
6.1
16.4
16.6
14.5
8.3
8.4
8.0
2.8
2.9
2.1
3.0
2.9
3.6
15.7
14.0
23.5
6.7
7.0
5.6
15.8
16.2
14.3
8.2
8.4
7.4
3.0
3.1
2.5
3.8
3.8
4.1
16.4
15.4
25.1
7.8
8.1
5.3
15.9
16.0
15.2
8.8
8.6
11.3
3.5
3.5
3.0
4.1
18.8
8.3
16.4
8.4
2.9
10
* I (Professional, etc occupations); II (Managerial and technical occupations)
III (Skilled occupations: (N) non-manual; (M) manual);
IV (Partly skilled occupations); V (Unskilled occupations).
0
500,000 200,000– 100,000– 50,000– 20,000– 10,000– 5,000–
and over 499,999 199,999 99,999 49,999 19,999 9,999
2,000–
4,999
Under
2,000
Size of urban areas (resident population)
Social class, occupation and industry
The national profile of social class showed a general tendency for
greater proportions of heads of household in rural areas to be
recorded in Social Classes I (Professional, etc occupations) and II
(Managerial and technical occupations) than was the case in urban
areas, and correspondingly lower proportions in Classes III-V (see
Table 11). A significant difference to this overall profile was found
in Scotland where heads of household in Social Class IV (Partly
skilled occupations) – many of whom were working in occupations
associated with agriculture, forestry and fishing – were
proportionately more common in rural areas (11.3 per cent) than in
localities (8.6 per cent).
There must be, by definition, similarities in the urban/rural patterns
of occupation to those of social class described above. Rural areas
generally had proportionately more residents working in
management, administration, professional and technical
occupations than did urban areas, and occupations in the other
main groups tended to be more prevalent among urban residents
than in rural areas. The urban/rural profile seems to be fairly
consistent across different parts of the country with no main
occupation group predominating in any particular areas.
This is less true when analysing patterns of industry. Not
surprisingly, proportions of employees and self-employed workers
in agriculture, forestry and fishing were more common in rural
areas by a factor of 13 in England, 17 in Wales and almost 20 in
Scotland (see Table 12). But in some counties and Scottish Regions
the proportion of workers in this industry, even by rural standards,
was particularly high; in rural Dumfries and Galloway, the Orkney
Islands and Borders, for example, over a quarter of the workforce
were employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing, compared with
just under one in five for rural Scotland as a whole. In Wales, rural
Powys (22.0 per cent) and Dyfed (20.0 per cent) also had high
proportions of agricultural workers compared with 13.9 per cent in
all rural areas. In England, the counties whose rural component had
the highest proportions working in the industry were Lincolnshire
(16.2 per cent), Shropshire (16.0 per cent) and Devon (15.5 per
cent).
Table 12
Industry, urban and rural areas, 1991 Census
Urban/rural
area
Percentage of employees and self-employed residents working in:
Agriculture
Forestry and
Fishing
Manu facturing
Distribution
and
Catering
Transport
England
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
1.7
0.8
10.0
18.0
18.4
14.1
20.7
20.8
19.8
6.4
6.7
4.3
Wales
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
3.4
0.8
13.9
17.1
18.5
11.6
20.2
20.5
19.1
5.1
5.5
3.8
Scotland
Total
Localities
Rural areas
2.9
0.9
18.0
16.4
17.2
10.5
19.1
19.2
18.2
6.1
6.3
5.1
Great Britain
2.0
17.8
20.5
6.4
On the other hand, urban areas consistently contained greater
proportions of manufacturing workers, particularly in
Leicestershire, Warwickshire, Derbyshire, Borders and Mid
Glamorgan where over a quarter of the urban workforce were
employed in manufacturing industries (compared with 18 per cent
nationally). Transport was the only other main industry to show a
consistently clear urban/rural pattern, with proportions of workers
higher in urban areas for every mainland shire county and Scottish
Region except Humberside, Northumberland and Highland.
Tr a v e l t o w o r k
In England and Wales, more than three out of five urban workers
(that is, employees and self-employed, resident in urban areas)
used their car to travel the major part of their journey to work by
car (60.3 per cent), and over two thirds (68.6 per cent) of workers
living in rural areas did so. A similar but slightly lower level of car
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
33
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
Table 13
Transport to work, urban and rural areas, 1991 Census
Urban/rural
area
Percentage employees and self-employed residents who travel
to work by:
England
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
Wales
Total
Urban areas
Rural areas
Scotland
Total
Localities
Rural areas
Great Britain
Works at
home
1 9 9 8
References and notes
1
Rail
Bus
Car
Bicycle
Foot
6.3
6.8
2.2
9.3
10.1
2.6
60.9
60.0
68.7
3.2
3.3
2.2
11.5
12.0
7.2
4.8
3.9
12.5
1.2
1.4
0.5
7.4
8.4
3.4
67.1
67.0
67.7
1.4
1.6
0.8
12.6
14.2
6.2
6.4
3.8
17.1
4
2.8
3.1
0.8
16.7
18.4
4.2
56.2
55.7
60.0
1.4
1.4
0.9
14.0
15.0
7.4
5.1
3.0
21.0
5
5.8
9.9
60.8
3.0
11.8
4.9
6
2
3
7
usage occurred in Scotland (see Table 13). Reflecting the general
decline in rural public transport services, the train or bus was more
than three times as likely to be used for travelling to work in urban
areas than in rural parts of the country.
8
Particularly high usage of rail transport occurred in London, and of
the bus in the metropolitan counties and localities in Strathclyde.
The relative closer proximity of home to workplace in urban areas
results in there being greater proportions of residents in such areas
travelling to work either by bicycle or on foot than was the case in
rural areas. But home workers were more than three times as
common in rural areas than in urban parts of the country (in rural
Wales, in fact, they were more than five times as common, and in
rural Scotland, ten times).
CONCLUSIONS
This article presents a very general appraisal of the wealth of
information contained in the 1991 Census results for urban and
rural areas. The Reports on Urban and Rural Areas1-6 will have
value both for general reference purposes and to provide data to
help business-location decisions and market planning.
The report for Great Britain1 presents a selection of 140 key
statistics for every town and city with a population of 20,000 or
more at the time of the 1991 Census. A series of four ‘regional’
companion reports present a similar range of statistics for all urban
areas in the North of England,2 the Midlands,3 the South East,4 the
South West and Wales,5 and for all localities in Scotland.6
The aggregate statistics in the reports will inform studies of the
populations in urban and rural areas, provided that the urban landbased definition is compatible with the particular application. The
reports will also help the compilation of internationally comparable
statistics for the agencies concerned with the balance of urban and
rural populations in Europe and world-wide.
34
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
ONS/GRO(S). 1991 Census Key Statistics for Urban and
Rural Areas: Great Britain. The Stationery Office (1997).
ISBN 0 11 691679 6.
ONS. 1991 Census Key Statistics for Urban and Rural
Areas: The North. The Stationery Office (1998). ISBN 0 11
620904 6.
ONS. 1991 Census Key Statistics for Urban and Rural
Areas: The Midlands. The Stationery Office (1998). ISBN 0
11 620905 4.
ONS. 1991 Census Key Statistics for Urban and Rural
Areas: The South East. The Stationery Office (1998). ISBN 0
11 620906 2.
ONS. 1991 Census Key Statistics for Urban and Rural
Areas: The South West and Wales. The Stationery Office
(1998). ISBN 0 11 620907 0.
GRO(S). 1991 Census Key Statistics for Localities in
Scotland. HMSO (1995). ISBN 0 11 495736 3.
General Register Office. Census 1951: England and Wales:
Report on Greater London and five other conurbations.
HMSO (1956).
The localities forming the largest continuously built-up area
in Strathclyde are: Airdrie, Bargeddie, Barrhead, Bearsden,
Bellshill, Bishopbriggs, Blantyre, Bothwell, Busby,
Calderbank, Carfin, Chapelhall, Clarkston, Clydebank,
Coatbridge, Duntocker and Hargate, Elderslie, Erskine,
Faifley, Giffnock, Glasgow, Hamilton, Holytown, Inchinnan,
Johnstone, Kilbarchan, Kirkintilloch, Lenzie, Linwood,
Milngravie, Milton, Motherwell, Neilston, New Stevenson,
Newarthill, Newmains, Newton Mearns, Old Kilpatrick,
Paisley, Renfrew, Stepps, Uddingston, Viewpark, and
Wishaw.
9 91 1 | |
S Sp pr ri in ng g 1 19 99 98 8
P Po op pu ul la at ti o
i on n T Tr re en nd ds s
Research implications
of improvements in access to
the ONS Longitudinal Study
Michael Rosato, Seeromanie Harding,
Elspeth McVey and Joanna Brown
Demography and Health
ONS
In this article we outline significant changes in
the way the ONS Longitudinal Study data are
stored, accessed and analysed. The data were
held previously on mainframe computers.
Recent technological changes have made it
possible to introduce PC-based systems
without compromising confidentiality. The
advantages of this new computing environment
are illustrated with recent findings on
geographic inequalities in health.
INTRODUCTION
The Longitudinal Study is a record linkage study incorporating
data from successive national censuses of England and Wales, and
from registrations of vital events such as births, deaths and cancers
for a representative one per cent sample of the population.1
Confidentiality is of paramount importance in the Longitudinal
Study and considerable attention is placed on control of access to
the data. Analysis of anonymised individual records has always
been strictly controlled, with authorised researchers working in the
Office for National Statistics (ONS).2 This emphasis has not
changed but through the use of new technology we can give greater
access while retaining the same level of security.
The LS is used extensively in socio-demographic research. Users
are supported by the Social Statistics Research Unit at City
University and by the Longitudinal Study Unit at ONS in London.
It has recently been possible to extend facilities for analysis
through the introduction of powerful and secure PC-based systems.
The aim of this article is to discuss access to the data given these
technological developments and to illustrate research potential with
recent findings on geographic inequalities in health. While there
are many areas of research, we focus on the work of the ONS
Health Variations Section, highlighting research opportunities
which are unique to the Longitudinal Study.
BACKGROUND
The sample was initially constructed from the 1971 Census and is
regularly updated with the inclusion of new births and
immigrants. Figure 1 shows how this information can be
integrated to produce individual life histories. Until recently,
Longitudinal Study data were held only on mainframe computers.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
35
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Example of life history of Londitudinal Study member
Figure 1
Original
entry into LS
Birth of
member
Events
Events
Birth of
child
Birth of
child
Emigration
Immigration
Exit LS
➤
➤
➤
➤
➤
Born
1955
Re-enter
LS
Exit LS
Death of
spouse
Cancer
Death
➤
1981 Census
1971 Census
Figure 2
1991 Census
2001 Census
The Longitudinal Study database
Key identifiers of
LS members
➤
Event data –1971 onwards
Cancer
➤
1971 Census data
Death
LS member
➤
Infant death to sample members
Household member
Live birth to sample members
Still birth to sample members
➤
1981 Census data
Exit from study
LS member
Re-entry to study
➤
Household member
Birth of new sample member
Widow(er)hoods to sample members
➤
1991 Census data
LS member
➤
Household member
➤
➤
Table lookups
Occupation Data:
including
Goldthorpe and
Carstairs
indices
2001 Census data
LS member
Household member
Small Area
statistics
This environment conveniently provided important confidentiality
safeguards and the capacity for handling large datasets. However,
with over 650,000 individuals and more than 3,000 data fields,
preparation of data for analysis was cumbersome. As recently
as five years ago, datastreams were specified by researchers
and extracted from a number of flat data files by technical
support staff. They usually took a long time to prepare and, if
new items of data were subsequently required for further
analysis, there was considerable waiting time for re-extraction.
Statistical manipulation was constrained by tabulation software
written by ONS and outputs were usually produced on paper.
Studies were mainly limited to descriptive rather than
analytical statistics as further manipulation by other software
required extensive data preparation.
36
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
Link by LS
number
Lookup link
LS – 2001
Census Link
Changes
A number of events coalesced to bring about change. All hardware
and software were upgraded. The Longitudinal Study was
restructured into a Model 204 database (see Figure 2). This
approach improved access as researchers were now able to define
and extract for themselves data specific to each study. The potential
for change was enhanced by rapid developments in the power and
storage capacity of PCs. Key decisions were taken in 1996 which
enabled the extracted data to be stored and analysed on a secure PC
server. Encrypted identifiers allowed project data sets to be flexibly
augmented with additional data over time. These preserved the
‘safe environment’ while enabling researchers to adopt more
sophisticated and diverse approaches to data analysis.
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
This fundamental shift in practice, however, brings its own problems.
The improved accessibility of the data and greater scope for analysis
demand more complex data preparation on the part of the researcher.
In addition, easy-to-use software packages with sophisticated designs
mask the complexity of the data and the underlying methodologies.
A N A LY S I S T O O L S
Five software products are currently available for analysis of
Longitudinal Study data in the PC environment:
1. SAS is the standard data manipulation tool. While mainly used to
provide tabulations, it is also very efficient in pre-processing data
for further analyses in other software packages.
2. SMARTIE is a SAS application produced by ONS to derive outcome
measures based on person years at risk. See Boxes 1 and 2.
3. Stata 5.0 is a statistical software package used primarily for
regression analysis. Although not currently supported by ONS,
its use in epidemiology and other disciplines is well established
and researchers have tapped into the network of developers and
users who provide useful assistance.
4. MLn provides a multi-level perspective to modelling. This allows
variation in individual characteristics (for example, access to cars)
to occur at the micro level, so that the impact of other
characteristics at a macro level (for example, level of deprivation
in the district) can be accurately examined.
5. MapInfo is a geographical information system used for graphical
presentation and spatial analysis of geo-coded data.
Box 1
Person years at risk
In the Longitudinal Study, we can calculate the exact
fraction of a year during which an individual is at risk of
death. This cumulative total is known as the person-years
at risk and is used to calculate death rates per 100, 000
person-years at risk. In contrast, in a routine crosssectional analysis the baseline population for the
calculation of death rates is obtained from the mid-year
estimate of the population derived from the census.
Box 2
Features of SMARTIE
• It can be used on both mainframes and PCs.
• It requires only a basic knowledge of SAS.
• Processing of data is very fast. Typically, tabulation of
about 300,000 records takes fifteen minutes on a PC.
• Entry and exit from exposure to risk of an event can
be flexibly defined.
• Person-days at risk can be adjusted for any number of
exits from and re-entries to the study.
• It produces a range of outcome measures such as age
adjusted survival rates, incident event rates and
indirectly standardised event ratios.
• The outputs can be easily transferred to other
software, such as Stata, for modelling purposes.
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
ILLUSTRATIVE ANALYSES USING
LONGITUDINAL STUDY DATA
In the following section we illustrate the uses of SMARTIE and
Stata using findings from current projects. The studies focus
mainly on geographical differentials in health and highlight both
the advantages of longitudinal over cross-sectional data and the
new flexibility in analysis
M o r t a l i t y f ro m a l l c a u s e s by s t a n d a r d r e g i o n ,
1988–94
In the Longitudinal Study, trends in socio-economic differentials in
mortality can be examined by measuring socio-economic status of
individuals at a census and by linking death registrations to their
records. This linkage enables accurate measurement of both the
numerators and denominators required for the death rates.
Different socio-economic indicators can also be derived as a
multiplicity of information on each individual is available.
Previous reports have referred extensively to the use of various
socio-economic classifications.3
Using SMARTIE, standardised mortality ratios based on personyears at risk were derived to compare mortality by standard region
of residence in 1971 and in 1981. Men present at the 1971 Census
were classified by region of residence in 1971, and those at the
1981 Census by region in 1981. To enable the examination of
comparable ages at death in the period 1988-94, the findings refer
to men aged 40-64 at death. Figure 3 confirms the well established
North/South divide regardless of whether region of residence was
taken from the 1971 or 1981 Census.4 Mortality was highest in the
North and North West regions and lowest in the South East, South
West and East Anglia.
In the recent decennial supplement, studies using national and
Longitudinal Study data showed a clear widening of inequalities in
health in the last decade.4,5,6,7 Investigating geographical differences
in class mortality is vital in informing health and resource
allocation policies. Most area studies have been limited to
ecological data in which characteristics refer to areas and
individual variation is ignored. Analyses using individual data in
the Longitudinal Study have shown that personal disadvantage is as
important as area disadvantage in the explanation of adverse life
chances.8,9 Such issues have important implications. If resources
are allocated according to levels of deprivation measured in broad
geographical areas, this could carry an element of inequity for
disadvantaged individuals in affluent areas.
R e g i o n a l m o r t a l i t y t re n d s , 1 9 7 6 – 9 4 , by s o c i a l
class
The results produced in SMARTIE were imported into Stata for
further manipulation. Death rates were directly standardised to the
European population, allowing a comparison of the magnitude of
class differentials among the standard regions. Figure 4 shows
death rates by social class for the period 1988-94 for selected
regions with the highest and lowest mortality. Clear class gradients
were evident in the North, North West and South East with death
rates rising incrementally from Social Class I/II to Social Class IV/
V. The number of deaths in some classes in East Anglia was small
which may account for the irregular pattern. In the three regions
with consistent class gradients, mortality differences between
Social Class IV/V and Social Class I/II were as large in the South
East as in the two northern regions. In absolute terms, however,
death rates in every class were lower in the South East than for the
corresponding class in the northern regions.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
37
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 3
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR), for all men aged 40–64, by standard region of residence in 1971 and in 1981, all causes 1988–94
(a) Area of residence in 1971
Region of residence 1971
SMR (1988-94)
120 to 129
North*
110 to 119
101 to 109
Yorkshire
& Humberside
79 to 100
*
North West*
p < 0.05
East Midlands
West
Midlands
Wales
East Anglia*
South East*
South West
(a) Area of residence in 1981
Region of residence 1981
SMR (1988-94)
120 to 129
North*
110 to 119
101 to 109
Yorkshire
& Humberside
79 to 100
*
North West*
East Midlands
Wales
West
Midlands*
East Anglia
South East*
South West*
38
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
p < 0.05
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Standardised* death rates per 100,000 with 95% confidence intervals, for men aged 40–64 at death, by social class for high and low mortality
standard regions, all causes 1988–94
Figure 4
Rate ratio classes IV/V versus I/II
500
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.4
2.0
Social Class
IIIN
I/II
IIIM
IV/V
Rate per 100,000
400
300
200
100
0
North West
North
South West
East Anglia
South East
* Standardised to European Standard Population
Figure 5 shows the index of inequality for the four regions over the
three time periods. The further the index of inequality from 1.0, the
greater the differentials across the social classes. The trends
suggest an increase in class differences in mortality in the North
West and South East. In the South East, the increase between 198287 and 1988-94 was significant. This measure also suggests a
similar magnitude of inequality in the South East and North West.
Measuring class differences over time is difficult because of the
small number of deaths in some classes and also because of the
differences in class sizes. Classes at the extremes with fewer
individuals are likely to lead to larger ratios when comparing the
top with the bottom of the hierarchy. Conversely, manual versus
non-manual differentials underestimate the magnitude as they
ignore the differences between individual classes. The index of
inequality avoids this problem as it adjusts for the different sizes
of the classes. 10 Using all six categories of social class and within
each five-year age-band, a value between zero and one was
assigned according to the proportion of subjects above the
midpoint of each class. For example, among men aged 40-44,
Social Class I comprised 6 per cent and were assigned a value of
0.03 which is the proportion above the midpoint of that class;
those in the next class comprised an additional 22 per cent and
were assigned a value of 0.06+(0.22/2)=0.17. Adjusted for age in
five-year age-groups, this indicator was related to mortality
using Cox regression in Stata.
Figure 5
Relative risks of mortality with 95% confidence intervals, all causes, men aged 40–64 at death, by time period for high and low* mortality
standard regions
1.0
J
2.0
J
J
1.0
1976–81 1982–87 1988–94
South East
4.0
J
2.0
J
J
Relative risk (log scale)
J
J
4.0
Relative risk (log scale)
4.0
J
South West
North West
Relative risk (log scale)
Relative risk (log scale)
North
2.0
The three bars at the end of each graph in Figure 6 show that in
every class and in every region, overall death rates declined across
the time periods. Death rates also remained highest in the North
and lowest in the South East in each time period. In the South
East, death rates also fell in each class but the proportionate decline
was greater in the non-manual than in the manual classes between
the last two time periods. This created the widening of class
differentials. In the North West, death rates fell progressively in the
non-manual classes but in Social Class IV/V they remained at
similar levels over the last two time periods.
1.0
1976–81 1982–87 1988–94
4.0
J
2.0
J
J
1.0
1976–81 1982–87 1988–94
1976–81 1982–87 1988–94
* East Anglia omitted due to small numbers
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
39
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Trends in standardised* death rates per 100,000, for men aged 40–64 at death by social class for high and low+ mortality standard regions,
all causes 1976–94
Figure 6
500
500
North
400
Rate per 100,000
Rate per 100,000
400
300
200
100
0
North West
300
200
100
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
0
ALL ±
I/II
IIIN
Social class
1976–81
500
1982–87
300
200
100
0
*
+
±
South West
400
Rate per 100,000
Rate per 100,000
400
ALL ±
1988–94
500
South East
IIIM
IV/V
Social class
300
200
100
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
Social class
0
ALL ±
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
ALL ±
Social class
Standardised to European Standard Population
East Anglia omitted due to small numbers
Includes classes I to V and Unclassified
Mortality of people with a limiting long-term
illness
Cancer sur vival studies using breast cancer as
an example
In the following example, data extracted from the Longitudinal
Study database was pre-processed in SAS to generate relevant
binary outcome and length of exposure to risk variables.
Individual level records were then used in Cox regression
analysis in Stata. For those present at the 1991 Census, the
follow-up period is limited to 1991-94. Limiting long-term illness
in the 1991 Census was used to examine the extent to which
morbidity correlates with mortality patterns across the standard
regions. The 1991 Census was the first census to include a
question on limiting long-term illness, a self-assessed
measurement of health status.11 It may therefore be affected by
subjectivity and imprecision compared to other measures such as
mortality. A comparison with mortality helps to validate the
question in the census.
Cancer registrations are also linked to the records of Longitudinal
Study members, and analyses of both cancer incidence and survival
are possible. Two detailed studies of incidence and survival have
been carried out with ten years of follow-up.12,13 Cancer registrations
up to the end of 1989 are linked into the Longitudinal Study and will
soon be updated to include registrations to the end of 1992.
Figure 7 shows mortality and prevalence of limiting long-term
illness in men aged 65 and over by standard region of
residence at the 1991 Census. The South East, East Anglia and
South West showed significantly lower mortality than the
North. Prevalence of limiting long-term illness was lowest in
the South East, East Anglia and South West. Mortality of those
with a limiting long-term illness showed a North/South divide
(see Figure 8) which raises questions about regional
differences in the types and severity of chronic illnesses,
disability and access to services.
40
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
In the last issue of Population Trends we presented socio-economic
differences in the incidence of cancers identified in the Health of
the Nation targets (lung, cervical and breast cancers) and discussed
the implications for policy makers and clinicians.14 Here we
examine the survival from breast cancer for different socioeconomic groups.
Survival rates are more accurate than death rates as differences in death
rates may be biased by differences in the length of survival from
diagnosis to death. In the following survival analyses, women registered
with breast cancer contributed risk from the time of registration until
death from breast cancer or end of follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival
curves for breast cancer by socio-economic status were produced in
Stata using individual level records. The survival curves in Figure 9
show the risk of death from breast cancer among women registered with
breast cancer, by housing tenure. Previous studies using Longitudinal
Study data have shown significant differences in the health experience
of housing tenure groups.3,15,16 Housing tenure is particularly useful in
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Age adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, men aged 65 years and over, mortality (1991–94) and prevalence of limiting longterm illness (LLTI) at the 1991 Census, by standard region in 1991
Figure 7
Mortality
LLTI
1.05
J
Hazard ratio (log scale)
1.00
J
J
0.95
J
0.85
J
J
N
EM
NW
YH
N North
EM East Midlands
NW North West
WM
J
J
J
J
J
0.75
0.70
J
J
W
SE
EA
YH Yorkshire & Humberside
WM West Midlands
W Wales
J
J
SW
N
EM
NW
YH
WM
W
J
J
SE
EA
J
SW
SE South East
EA East Anglia
SW South West
the study of women’s health because a higher proportion of women can
be classified by tenure (97 per cent) compared with social class based
on own occupation (57 per cent). Figure 9 shows that for all women,
breast cancer survival was poorest for those in privately rented housing
and best for those in owner occupied housing. After ten years of followup, 65 per cent of women in owner occupied housing were still alive
compared with 53 per cent in private renting.
Society, Recent developments in health statistics at ONS, emphasis
was placed on investment in technology and encouraging work with
outside experts.17 The Longitudinal Study team are seeking to address
these issues and we welcome suggestions from users who are familiar
with manipulating large datasets. Development is ongoing, and we are
examining strategies for future dissemination of aggregated results
using CD-Rom and simple systems to navigate outputs.
FUTURE
A significant amount of collaborative work with external researchers is
undertaken, both nationally and internationally, and this has enormous
benefit in terms of exchange of expertise. Other examples of healthrelated work within ONS include unemployment and women’s health,
international comparisons in health and ethnic differences in health.
Publication lists are available on request. Prospective users can learn
more about the Longitudinal Study at specially organised workshops
run by City University. Points of contact are outlined in Box 3. With
the improvements outlined here, the potential for exploiting the
Longitudinal Study is now greater than in the past.
The Longitudinal Study is now in its third decade and preparing for
the 2001 Census. In this article we have outlined significant changes
in the way Longitudinal Study data are stored, accessed, manipulated
and analysed. Confidentiality and security have not been
compromised by these changes. Researchers using Longitudinal
Study data can now use the range of analytical tools available on
their desktop. These developments are in line with wider policy
initiatives within the Office. In a presentation to the Royal Statistical
Figure 8
Age-adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence
intervals, men aged 65 and over, prevalence of a
limiting long-term illness (LLTI) and for mortality
(1991–94) of those with a LLTI, by aggregated regions
LLTI
Mortality
1.1
Figure 9
Survival of women from breast cancer, ages 15–64, by
tenure in 1971, England and Wales, 1971–94
1.00
Mortality of men
with a LLTI
J
J
J J J
J
J
J J
J J
0.9
Survival probability
Hazard ratio (log scale)
0.75
1.0
Owner occupiers
0.50
Local authority
Private renters
0.25
J
0.00
0.8
N
North
N
M
W
S
W Wales
N
M
W
M Midland
S
N
M
W
S
1
S South
O f f i c e
f o r
3
5
7
9
11 13
Years of follow-up
N a t i o n a l
15
17
19
S t a t i s t i c s
21
23
41
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
A c k n ow l e d g e m e n t
References
We thank Ann Bethune and the external referees for their useful
comments.
1
2
Key Points
3
In recent years we have changed the environment for
analysing the ONS Longitudinal Study by:
4
• moving the data to a large integrated database;
• redeveloping the software for analysing
survival data;
• developing a controlled environment for access via
PCs; and
• using a range of statistical software available for PCs
5
6
7
8
Box 3
9
Contact points
10
ONS
Harshita Bhatia, Longitudinal Study, 1 Drummond Gate,
London. SW1V 2QQ
Tel: 0171 533 5190
email: ls@ons.gov.uk
11
12
Social Statistics Research Unit
Dina Maher, City University, Northampton Square,
London. EC1V OHP
Tel: 0171 477 8486
email: ls@ssru.city.ac.uk
13
14
Details of the Longitudinal Study can also be found on
the web site: http://ssru.city.ac.uk/ls/homepage
15
16
17
42
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
Hattersley L and Creeser R. Longitudinal Study 1971-1991
History, organisation and quality of data. Series LS No.7,
HMSO (London: 1995).
March C, Dale A, Skinner C. Safe data versus safe settings:
access to microdata from the British Census. International
Statistical Review. Volume 62.1 (1994) 35-53.
Goldblatt P. Longitudinal Study 1971-81: mortality and
social organisation. LS no.6. HMSO (London, 1990).
Dorling D. Death in Britain. How local mortality rates have
changed: 1950s - 1990s. Joseph Rowntree Foundation
(York, 1997).
Drever F and Whitehead M. (eds) Health Inequalities
Decennial supplement. Series DS No.15. The Stationery
Office (London, 1997).
Drever F and Bunting J. Patterns and trends in male
mortality. In Drever F and Whitehead M. (eds) Health
Inequalities. Series DS No.15, The Stationery Office
(London, 1997).
Harding S, Berthune A, Maxwell R and Brown J. Mortality
trends using the Longitudinal Study. In Drever F and
Whitehead M. (eds) Health Inequalities. Series DS No.15,
The Stationery Office (London, 1997).
Sloggett A and Joshi H. Higher mortality in deprived areas:
community or personal disadvantage? British Medical
Journal 309, (1994) 1470-1474.
Sloggett A and Joshi H. Deprivation indicators as predictors
of life events 1981-1992. Journal of Epidemiology and
Public Health (1997).
Kunst AE and Mackenbach J.P. The size of mortality
differences associated with educational level in nine
industrialized countries. American Journal of Public Health
84 (1994). 932-937.
Charlton J, Wallace M and White I. Long-term illness:
results from the 1991 census. Population Trends 75, Spring
1994.
Kogevinas E. Longitudinal Study: Socio-demographic
differences in cancer survival 1971-1983. LS no.5. HMSO
(London, 1990).
Leon D. Longitudinal Study: Social distribution of cancer.
LS no.3. HMSO (London, 1988).
Brown J, Harding S, Bethune A and Rosato M. Incidence of
Health of the Nation cancers by social class. Population
Trends 90 Winter 1997.
Harding S, Bethune A, and Rosato M. Second study
supports results of Whitehall Study after retirement. British
Medical Journal, 314:1130.
Smith J and Harding S. Mortality of women and men using
alternative social classifications. In Drever F and Whitehead
M. (eds) Health Inequalities Series DS No.15, The
Stationery Office (London, 1997).
Fox J and Dunnell K. Conference paper presented at the
1997 Assistant Statisticians’ Annual Conference Recent
developments in health statistics at ONS.
9 91 1 | |
S Sp pr ri in ng g 1 19 99 98 8
P Po op pu ul la at ti o
i on n T Tr re en nd ds s
1996-based national population
projections for the United Kingdom
and constituent countries
Chris Shaw
Government Actuary’s Department
The 1996-based national population projections,
carried out by the Government Actuary in
consultation with the Registrars General, show
the population of the United Kingdom rising from
58.8 million in 1996 to over 62 million by 2021.
The population will become gradually older with
the mean age expected to rise from 38.4 years in
1996 to nearly 42 years by 2021.The number of
INTRODUCTION
children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 1.0
million (9 per cent) by 2021, while the number
aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 2.7
million (29 per cent). Longer-term projections
suggest the population will peak around 2031 and
then gradually start to fall.
The Government Actuary, in consultation with the Registrars
General, has responsibility for the production of national population
projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries.
Consistent 1996-based subnational population projections for
Scotland were published earlier this year by the General Register
Office for Scotland (GRO(S)) and similar subnational projections for
the remaining countries of the UK will be published later in the year
by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Welsh Office, and the
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). This
article presents the main results from the 1996-based national
population projections which replace the previous 1994-based
national projections.1 The main focus of these projections is on the
next twenty-five years, that is, up to 2021. However, the results of
longer-term projections to 2036 are included in the graphs in this
article and discussed where appropriate.
B A S E P O P U L AT I O N
The 1996-based projections are based on the mid-1996 population
estimates produced by ONS,2 GRO(S)3 and NISRA.4 As Table 1
shows, the estimated population of the United Kingdom at mid1996 was 58.801 million, some 19 thousand (0.03 per cent) higher
than envisaged in the 1994-based projections. This mainly reflects
an underprojection of net migration into the United Kingdom
between mid-1994 and mid-1996. (The projected total numbers of
births and deaths during this period were both within 0.5 per cent
of the actual figures.) Internal migration within the United
Kingdom also differed from the projected figures. In particular, net
migration into Scotland during this period was overprojected while
net migration into Northern Ireland was underprojected.
Consequently, the projected populations of these countries at mid1996 differed from the actual figures by around 0.5 per cent.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
43
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 1
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Population change 1994-96: actual compared with
1994-based projections, United Kingdom
thousands
1994-based Difference between
projections estimates and projections
000s
Population at mid-1994
Components of change (1994-96)
Births
Deaths
58,395
58,395
1,461
1,277
1,466
1,278
-6
-1
-0.4
-0.1
184
223
188
200
-4
24
-
Natural increase
Migration and other changes
407
Total change
Population at mid-1996
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
58,801
49,089
2,921
5,128
1,663
3.00
387
58,782
49,058
2,922
5,149
1,654
Assumptions for 1996-based national population
projections, United KIngdom
(a) Total fertility rate (TFR) and average completed
family size (CFS)*, 1951–2021
%
19
19
32
-1
-21
10
Children per woman
Mid-year
estimates
Figure 1
0.03
0.1
-0.0
-0.4
0.6
3.00
Assumed TFRs
TFR
2.75
2.75
2.50
2.50
CFS
2.25
2.25
Replacement level
2.00
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
0.00
1951
0.00
61
71
81
Year
91
2001
11
21
*Note: CFS relates to cohort born 28 years earlier - 28 years being roughly
the mean age at childbearing. Assumed CFS is given for cohorts
who have not yet completed childbearing.
U N D E R LY I N G A S S U M P T I O N S
(b) Expectation of life at birth, 1981–2036
The assumptions used in the 1996-based national population
projections for the United Kingdom as a whole are shown in Figure 1,
while those for individual countries are summarised in Table 2.
EOLB (years)
84
82
Fe r t i l i t y
Fertility assumptions are formulated in terms of the average
number of children that women born in particular years will have.
This cohort measure of fertility is more stable than the analogous
calendar year or period measure (the total fertility rate), as it is
affected only by changes in the total number of children women
have and not by the timing of births within their lives. Period rates,
in contrast, may rise or fall if births are brought forward or delayed
for any reason. The assumed average completed family sizes and
resultant total fertility rates (TFRs) are both shown in Figure 1,
while the TFRs for individual countries are summarised in Table 2.
44
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
80
80
78
78
Males
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
Assumptions
70
0
1981 86
91
96 2001 O6
11
16
21
26
31
36
0
Year
(c) Total net migration 1982–83 to 2020–21
Thousands
The assumptions about completed family size are based on family
building patterns to date, information from the General Household
Survey about the number of children women expect to have and
other relevant evidence. The family sizes to be achieved by
younger cohorts are highly conjectural, but it has been assumed
that average completed family size, for the United Kingdom as a
whole, will continue to decline until around the 1975 cohort and
eventually level off at 1.80 children per woman. It has been
assumed that the TFR will fall slightly between 1996-97 and 199798 before rising to the ultimate level of 1.80. This follows evidence
that there was an increase in the number of conceptions between
the pill scare of October 1995 and the middle of 1996.5
For the UK as a whole, this long-term assumption is unchanged
from the 1994-based projections. However, there have been some
changes to the assumptions for individual countries. The previous
projections made the same long-term assumption of 1.80 children
per woman for each country, but for the new projections the
assumption of long-term average family size has been reduced to
1.75 children per woman in Scotland and increased to 1.85 in
Northern Ireland. The long-term assumptions for England and
Wales are unchanged. Scotland has been experiencing lower
fertility levels than the rest of the United Kingdom since the early
1980s and this differential is now quite marked. As regards
Northern Ireland, fertility remains higher there than elsewhere in
the UK, despite a rapid fall since the mid-1980s. Although the
1994-based projections made the same long-term assumption for
Northern Ireland as for other countries, the decline in the TFR to
84
82
Females
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
Assumptions
0
0
-25
-25
1981
86
91
96
2001
O6
11
16
21
Year
1.80 was assumed to take place over a very lengthy period. So,
other than in the long term, the effect of moving to a higher
assumption is not as substantial as it might appear.
Mortality
Mortality rates for the first year of the projection, 1996-97, are
based on the best estimates that could be made at the time the
projections were completed, of the number of deaths at each age in
that year. Mortality rates for later years are based on the trends in
mortality rates in recent years in England and Wales. It is assumed
that the annual reduction in mortality rates, which currently varies
considerably from age to age, will tend towards a reduction of
about 0.5 per cent a year at all ages by 2032-33. The reductions for
those born in 1947 or earlier are projected on a cohort basis while
those for younger ages are projected on a period basis.
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
Table 2
England
Wales
Scotland
N. Ireland
UK
Summary of assumptions for individual countries
Total fertility rate
Net migration
from
1996-97 2000-01 2008-09
1996-97
1997-98
from
1998-99
1.75
1.86
1.59
2.03
1.76
1.80
1.62
1.92
1.80
1.80
1.75
1.85
+96,000 +81,500 +66,000
+7,000 +6,000 +5,500
-6,000
-4,500
-3,000
-2,000
-3,000
-3,500
1.75
1.76
1.80
+95,000 +80,000 +65,000
Expectation of life at birth (years)
Males
Females
1996-97 2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 1996-97 2000-01 2010-11 2020-21
England
Wales
Scotland
N. Ireland
74.9
74.2
72.7
73.5
75.5
74.9
73.3
74.3
77.1
76.5
74.9
75.9
78.1
77.5
76.0
77.0
79.7
79.3
77.9
78.9
80.3
80.0
78.4
79.4
81.6
81.2
79.8
80.7
82.7
82.4
81.0
81.8
UK
74.6
75.2
76.8
77.8
79.5
80.1
81.4
82.5
Assumed expectations of life for the individual countries are
shown in Table 2. Current mortality levels differ between the
countries, but the same mortality rate reductions are assumed for
the future. Therefore, the relative differences between the levels
of mortality in the four countries, derived from their respective
mortality experience in 1993-95, are maintained throughout the
projection period.
The long-term assumptions for expectation of life at birth for the
United Kingdom are little changed from the 1994-based
projections. Males are assumed to have slightly higher expectations
of life at birth while for females, the expectations are slightly lower
initially, before rising to similar levels in the long term. Mortality
rates are assumed to be lower at most ages, although higher rates
are assumed at some ages between the mid-twenties and mid-fifties
(especially for women) and at some ages in the eighties.
The slight worsening of the expectation of life at birth for females
in the medium term, before a gradual return to the levels
previously projected, arises in each of the countries in the United
Kingdom, most noticeably in Wales, and to a lesser extent,
Scotland. Compared with the previous projections, expectations of
life at birth for males are projected to be slightly higher for
England and Northern Ireland throughout the projection period, at
similar levels for Scotland and slightly lower for Wales.
Migration
As shown in Figure 1, net international migration (covering
moves of both UK and foreign nationals into and out of the UK)
is subject to considerable year-to-year fluctuation. However, in
recent years, the underlying trend for the UK as a whole has been
upward with particularly high figures estimated for the period
since mid-1993. The 1996-based projections assume that the net
inward flow to the United Kingdom will reduce from 95 thousand
in 1996-97 to 80 thousand in 1997-98 and 65 thousand each year
thereafter. These assumptions are based on analyses of migrant
flows from the International Passenger Survey (IPS), plus an
allowance for persons who enter the UK as short-term visitors
(and would therefore not be classed as migrants by the IPS) but
are subsequently granted an extension of stay for a year or longer.
The assumption of 65 thousand persons per year from 1998-99
onwards represents a significant increase compared with the
previous projections. In the 1994-based projections, the medium-
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
term assumption was for a net inward flow of 50 thousand
persons per year until 2008-09 which was then tapered off to zero
by 2018-19. The current methods used for projecting migration
are described in an OPCS Occasional Paper6 and the increase in
the medium-term assumption results from the inclusion of the
relatively high migration figures of the past two years in the
analysis. In fact, a greater increase in the assumption was
considered, but it was thought best to treat the high recent figures
with caution and reduce the weight given to them. The resulting
assumption of an annual net inflow of 65 thousand is similar to
the average level of the past ten years. As the UK has now
experienced significant net inward migration each year since
1983-84, it was also decided that a decline in the assumption to a
net zero flow for the long term could no longer be justified and,
therefore, the medium-term assumption is now maintained until
the end of the projection period.
The assumed net migration figures for the constituent countries
of the United Kingdom are given in Table 2. These combine
assumptions regarding the distribution of international
migration with assumptions about internal migration between
the countries of the United Kingdom. It is assumed that
Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a net loss of population
through migration, while net inward flows are assumed for
England and Wales. As a result of the increased assumption of
international migration, the medium-term assumptions for
England are significantly higher than in the previous
projections. For the smaller countries, where internal flows are
more numerically important than international flows, there is
little change in the assumptions for the early years. However, as
for the United Kingdom as a whole, the assumed net inflows to
England and Wales and net outflows from Scotland and
Northern Ireland are now maintained throughout the projection
rather than tapering off to zero for the long term.
R E S U LT S O F T H E 1 9 9 6 - B A S E D N AT I O N A L
P O P U L AT I O N P R O J E C T I O N S
To t a l p o p u l a t i o n
The results of the new projections are summarised for the constituent
countries of the United Kingdom in Table 3 and Figure 2. The
population of the United Kingdom is projected to increase
gradually from 58.8 million in 1996 to over 62 million by 2021.
Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak at nearly
63 million in the year 2031 and then gradually start to fall. A
gradual decline in the population of Scotland is projected from
1996, while the population of Northern Ireland is projected to peak
in the year 2018. The populations of England and Wales are
projected to continue increasing until around the year 2030.
Births and deaths
Projected numbers of births and deaths are shown in Figure 3. With
the single exception of 1976, the United Kingdom has gained
population through natural increase (births less deaths) throughout
the twentieth century. However, it is projected that deaths will
begin to outnumber births in about thirty years time. By 2031, this
natural deficit is projected to exceed the assumed net gain to the
population through net migration and so the population then begins
to decline. Of course, projections so far ahead are subject to
considerable uncertainty. In particular, the projected trend in births
depends on the assumed future level of fertility (including that for
women not yet born) and has much greater uncertainty attached to
it than the projected trend in deaths which is largely determined by
the age structure of the population alive today.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
45
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 2
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Figure 3
Actual and projected population of the United Kingdom
and constituent countries, 1971–2036
65
Projected
Actual and projected births and deaths,
United Kingdom, 1971–2036
65
1.0
60
0.9
0.9
55
0.8
0.8
1.0
Projected
Northern Ireland
60
55
Wales
Millions
Millions
Scotland
50
50
Births
0.7
0.7
England
45
0.6
45
0.6
Deaths
0.5
0
1971
0
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
0
1971
2031
0.5
0
1981
1991
2001
Year
Table 3
2011
2021
2031
Year
Components of change: five-year summary, 1996-2021
annual averages (thousands)
1996–2001
UNITED KINGDOM
Population at start
Births
Deaths
Natural increase
Migration
Total increase
Population at end
ENGLAND
Population at start
Births
Deaths
Natural increase
Migration
Total increase
Population at end
WALES
Population at start
Births
Deaths
Natural increase
Migration
Total increase
Population at end
SCOTLAND
Population at start
Births
Deaths
Natural increase
Migration
Total increase
Population at end
NORTHERN IRELAND
Population at start
Births
Deaths
Natural increase
Migration
Total increase
Population at end
46
O f f i c e
f o r
2001–2006
2006–2011
2011–2016
2016–2021
58,801
723
634
89
74
163
59,618
59,618
696
627
69
65
134
60,287
60,287
684
620
64
65
129
60,929
60,929
691
621
70
65
135
61,605
61,605
697
635
63
65
128
62,244
49,089
607
525
81
75
156
49,871
49,871
585
520
65
66
131
50,526
50,526
575
514
61
66
127
51,161
51,161
583
515
68
66
134
51,832
51,832
591
526
64
66
130
52,484
2,921
34
35
-1
6
5
2,947
2,947
33
34
-2
6
4
2,966
2,966
33
34
-1
6
5
2,989
2,989
34
34
0
6
6
3,017
3,017
34
34
-0
6
5
3,043
5,128
58
59
-0
-4
-4
5,106
5,106
56
58
-1
-3
-4
5,084
5,084
55
57
-2
-3
-5
5,059
5,059
54
57
-3
-3
-6
5,031
5,031
53
58
-5
-3
-8
4,993
1,663
24
15
9
-3
6
1,694
1,694
22
15
7
-4
3
1,711
1,711
21
16
5
-4
2
1,720
1,720
20
16
4
-4
1
1,725
1,725
20
16
3
-4
-0
1,724
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
Age distribution
Table 4 and Figure 4 summarise the projected age structure of the
population. The age structure will become gradually older with the
mean age of the population rising from 38.4 years in 1996 to 41.9
years by 2021. Longer-term projections show continuing ageing
with the mean age reaching nearly 44 years by 2036.
The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by
nearly nine per cent from 12.1 million in 1996 to 11.1 million at
2021. The number of people of working age (currently defined as
16 to 64 for men and 16 to 59 for women) is projected to rise
from 36.0 million now to 37.7 million in 2010. Allowing for the
planned change in women’s state retirement age from 60 to 65
between 2010 and 2020, 7 the working age population will then
rise further to 39.2 million by 2021. The working population will
also become much older. There will be nearly 2 million fewer
people aged 16 to 44 by 2021, but the 45 to 59 age group will
increase by almost 2.5 million.
The number of people over pensionable age is projected to
increase from 10.7 million in 1996 to 11.8 million in 2010.
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Dependency ratios
These changes in age structure will, in time, have a marked effect
on the future proportion of dependants in the population. Figure 5
shows projected dependency ratios, that is, the number of children
under 16 or the population of pensionable age (or the sum of the
two) expressed as a percentage of the working age population.
These are, of course, somewhat arbitrary boundaries as, in reality,
full-time education ends, and retirement starts, at a range of ages.
Figure 5
Dependants per 1,000 persons of working age
Projected age distribution, United Kingdom,1996–2036
100
100
Percentage of total population
75+
60-74
80
80
45-59
60
60
median age
30-44
40
40
15-29
20
Actual and projected dependency ratios,
United Kingdom, 1971–2036
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
800
800
700
700
Total
600
600
500
500
400
400
Pension age
300
300
Children under 16
200
200
0
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Year
Note: The 'working age' population is that aged between 16 and state retirement age, and the
population of 'pension age' is that over state retirement age. Between 2010 and 2020, state
retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both
sexes. The dotted lines in the graphs show what the dependency ratios would have been, had
the present retirement age applied throughout.
0
2036
Year
Table 4
900
Projected
0
1971
20
0-14
0
1996
T r e n d s
However, with the increase in women’s state retirement age, the
population of pensionable age would rise only slightly further (to
12.0 million) by 2021. A faster increase will then resume with
longer-term projections suggesting the number over pensionable
age peaking at nearly 15.5 million in the late 2030s. Without the
change in women’s retirement age, the population of pensionable
age would have risen to 14.0 million by 2021, eventually
peaking at just over 17 million.
900
Figure 4
P o p u l a t i o n
Projected population by age, United Kingdom, 1996-2021
thousands
Age group
All ages
0-14
15-29
30-44
45-59
60-74
75 & over
1996
2001
58,801
11,358
11,903
12,935
10,582
7,831
4,193
59,618
11,289
11,197
13,747
11,228
7,752
4,406
2011
60,287
10,860
11,425
13,335
11,955
8,207
4,504
2016
60,929
10,508
11,717
12,170
12,660
9,272
4,602
2021
61,605
10,356
11,645
11,457
13,437
9,876
4,834
62,244
10,368
11,221
11,687
13,033
10,574
5,360
38.4
38.9
39.6
40.4
41.2
41.9
12,098
36,035
10,668
12,048
36,813
10,757
11,662
37,505
11,119
11,232
37,938
11,759
11,071
38,701
11,833
11,059
39,229
11,956
327
292
619
311
296
607
296
310
606
286
306
592
282
305
587
Mean age (years)
Under 16
Working age*
Pensionable age*
2006
Dependants per 1,000 persons of working age
Under 16
Pensionable age*
Total*
336
296
632
* Working age and pensionable age populations based on state retirement age for given year. Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for
both sexes.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
47
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1 |
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Figure 5 shows that the total dependency ratio will fall gradually from
632 dependants per 1,000 persons of working age in 1996 to about 580
per 1,000 in 2020 when the increase in women’s retirement age is
complete. It will then increase rapidly, with longer-term projections
suggesting a levelling off around 700 per 1,000 from the mid-2030s.
However, this would be no greater than the proportion in the early
1970s, although then it was children who comprised the majority of
dependants. Of course, without the planned change in women’s
retirement age, the proportion of dependants would have risen earlier
and further as indicated by the dotted lines in Figure 5.
compared with the 1994-based projections) are shown as positive
numbers in the table as they contribute to an increase in the size
of the population.
In the short term, there is little change to the total population of the
United Kingdom. The population at 2001 is now about 150 thousand
(0.2 per cent) higher than previously projected. However, longerterm changes are more marked and, by 2021, the UK population is
1.1 million (1.8 per cent) higher than previously projected.
These changes are almost entirely a result of the upward revisions
to the migration assumptions discussed above with the greater
long-term impact due to the abandonment of the assumption that
net migration will eventually decline to net zero. In addition to the
migrant numbers themselves, the revised migration assumptions
also explain the increase in the projected number of births, which
occurs despite there being no change in the long-term fertility
assumption for the UK as a whole. As well as the increased total
number of migrants, the 1996-based projections assume equal
numbers of male and female migrants for the UK as a whole,
whereas the previous projections assumed a larger male inflow. As
migrants are heavily concentrated at younger ages, these changes
increase the number of women at childbearing ages (and hence the
future number of births) while having comparatively little effect on
deaths in the period to 2021.
Population ageing will be experienced to a greater or lesser extent
in all Western countries. Indeed, the latest Eurostat projections8
show that in the year 2020, compared with the EU as a whole, the
UK will have proportionately fewer older people, although the
overall dependency ratio will be around the EU average.
C O M PA R I S O N W I T H 1 9 9 4 - B A S E D N AT I O N A L
P RO J E C T I O N S
The projected total population of each country is compared with
the 1994-based projections in Table 5 and the difference between
the two projections is broken down into changes in the base
population and changes in the projected number of births, deaths
and migrants. Reductions in the projected numbers of deaths (as
Change in projected population compared with 1994-based projections
Table 5
1996-based
projections
1994-based
projections
thousands
Total
change
Change due to
base
population*
Country
Population at 2001
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
United Kingdom
projected
births
projected
deaths†
projected
migrants
49,871
2,947
5,106
1,694
59,618
49,724
2,937
5,135
1,676
59,472
148
10
-28
18
146
32
-1
-21
10
19
2
4
1
6
13
20
-1
2
1
24
94
7
-12
1
91
51,161
2,989
5,059
1,720
60,929
50,757
2,955
5,083
1,699
60,493
405
34
-24
21
436
32
-1
-21
10
19
97
15
2
9
122
27
2
8
2
39
249
19
-12
0
256
52,484
3,043
4,993
1,724
62,244
51,414
2,945
5,040
1,731
61,130
1,070
98
-47
-7
1,114
32
-1
-21
10
19
253
31
-7
6
282
22
7
16
2
48
764
61
-35
-24
766
Population at 2011
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
United Kingdom
Population at 2021
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
United Kingdom
* Difference between the estimated population at mid-1996 and the 1994-based projection of the population at mid-1996.
† Reductions in the projected number of deaths (compared with the previous projections) are shown as positive numbers as they contribute to an increase in the size of the population.
Table 6
Changes in projected population by age compared with the 1994-based projections, United Kingdom
Age group
1996
2001
000s
%
2011
000s
%
000s
2021
%
000s
%
Under 16
16–29
30–44
45–59
60–74
75 and over
-6
8
6
2
11
0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
-5
30
63
-4
40
22
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.5
94
60
131
6
60
85
0.8
0.5
1.1
0.1
0.6
1.9
257
297
237
116
31
175
2.4
2.9
2.1
0.9
0.3
3.4
All ages
19
0.0
146
0.2
436
0.7
1,114
1.8
48
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
The populations of England and Wales at 2021 are, respectively,
2.1 per cent and 3.3 per cent higher than previously projected. The
population of Scotland at 2021 is about 1 per cent lower than
previously projected. This is mainly due to the overprojection of
migration into Scotland between 1994 and 1996 noted above (and a
consequent downward revision of the assumption for the following
two years) and to the new assumption of net outward migration
continuing into the long term. The population of Northern Ireland
is about 1 per cent higher than previously projected at 2011
(because of the revision to the base population and the higher
fertility assumption noted above), but by 2021 this is offset by the
new assumption of long-term net outward migration.
The change in the projected size of the population of the United
Kingdom in particular age groups is shown in Table 6. Because of the
young age distribution of migrants, nearly three quarters of the 1.1
million increase in the population at 2021, compared with the previous
projections, is at ages 0 to 44. The population aged 75 and above at
2021 is about 3.5 per cent higher than previously projected, mainly
because of the small reduction in mortality rates at most ages under 80.
U N C E R TA I N T Y
The one certainty of making population projections is that, due to
the inherent unpredictability of demographic behaviour, they will
turn out to be wrong as a forecast of future demographic events or
population structure. One way of giving users an indication of
uncertainty is by considering the performance of past projections.
An analysis of the accuracy of national population projections
made since 1971 was published in Population Trends 77.9
Another way of illustrating uncertainty is by preparing variant
projections based on alternative assumptions of future fertility,
mortality and migration. Official 1996-based variant projections will
be completed later this year and will be discussed in the reference
volume on the 1996-based projections.10 However, Figure 6 gives an
indication of the uncertainty regarding total population size by
assuming the same differentials between the principal and variant
projections as applied in the 1994-based projections. The fertility
variants assumed long-term family sizes of 2.0 and 1.6 children per
|
S p r i n g
Actual and projected population according to principal
and illustrative variant projections, United Kingdom,
1971–2036
Under the principal projection, the population would peak around
2031. However, under either the high fertility or migration variants,
the population would still be increasing at 2036, although the rate of
growth would be slowing. But, under the low fertility assumption,
the population would peak in the early 2020s. Based on these
alternative assumptions, the population at 2021 could range from
60.5 million to nearly 64 million. The uncertainty widens
appreciably with time and by 2036, these variant assumptions give
population sizes ranging from under 59.5 million to 66 million.
Errors in the assumptions about future fertility, mortality and
migration would have different implications for different agegroups. Obviously, errors in the fertility assumptions would affect
only those not born at the time of the projection, that is, the
population aged under 25 at 2021, or aged under 40 at 2036.
Because migrants are predominantly young, errors in the migration
assumptions would have little effect on the elderly population even
in forty years time. In contrast, errors in the mortality assumptions
would have little effect on the population aged under 60.
References
1
3
68
Projected
5
66
High fertility
66
High mign.
64
64
6
High LE*
Millions
Principal
62
Low LE*
62
7
Low mign.
60
60
8
Low fertility
58
58
9
56
56
54
54
0
1971
1981 1991
2001 2011
2021 2031
T r e n d s
The methodology used to produce the projections does not allow
statements of probability to be attached to them, or for confidence
intervals to be ascribed to variants. Therefore, strictly, the variants
should not be compared with each other but the particularly wide
range of the fertility variants does indicate its relative importance
in determining the long-term size of the population.
4
68
P o p u l a t i o n
woman compared with 1.8 per woman in the principal projection;
the high life expectancy variant assumed that mortality rates would
be falling by 1 per cent after forty years compared with 0.5 per cent
in the principal while the low variant assumes rates will be constant
by then; and the migration variants assumed annual net inflows of
40,000 persons above and below the principal projection. These
variant assumptions are intended as plausible alternative scenarios
and not as upper or lower limits for what might occur in the future.
2
Figure 6
1 9 9 8
10
0
National population projections: 1994-based. ONS Series
PP2 no.20. The Stationery Office (1996).
Mid-1996 population estimates for England and Wales. ONS
Monitor PP1 97/1 (1997).
Mid-1996 population estimates: Scotland. General Register
Office for Scotland (1997).
Annual Report of the Registrar General for Northern
Ireland: 1996. The Stationery Office (1997).
Wood R, Botting B and Dunnell K. Trends in conceptions
before and after the 1995 pill scare. Population Trends 89.
The Stationery Office (1997).
National population projections: a new methodology for
determining migration assumptions. Occasional Paper 42.
OPCS (1993).
Pensions Act 1995 Chapter 26 Part II, Section 126 and Schedule 4.
Shaw C, Cruijsen H, De Beer J and De Jong A. Latest
population projections for the European Union. Population
Trends 90. The Stationery Office (1997).
Shaw C. Accuracy and uncertainty of national population
projections for the United Kingdom. Population Trends 77.
HMSO (1994).
National population projections: 1996-based. ONS Series
PP2 no.21. The Stationery Office (forthcoming).
Year
Note: * Life expectancy
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
49
P o p u l a t i o n
50
O f f i c e
T r e n d s
f o r
9 1
|
N a t i o n a l
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Tables
table
page
1
52
2
54
3
4
54
55
5
56
6
7
57
59
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
8
60
England and Wales
9
62
England and Wales
10
62
England and Wales
11
63
England and Wales
12
64
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
13
65
England and Wales
England and Wales
England and Wales
14
15
16
66
67
68
England and Wales
17
70
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
18
19
20
71
72
73
United Kingdom
21
74
England and Wales
22
75
England and Wales
England and Wales
23
24
76
77
Population
International
National
Subnational
Subnational
Components of population change
Age and sex
Age, sex and marital status
Selected countries
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
Standard regions and
metropolitan countries of
England
Health regions of England
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
England and Wales
Vital statistics
Summary
Live births
Age of mother
Outside marriage: age of mother
and type of registration
Inside marriage: age of mother,
marital status, and birth order
Conceptions
Age of women at conception
Expectation of life
(in years) at birth and selected ages
Deaths
Age and sex
Subnational
Selected causes and sex
Abortions
Marital status, age, and
gestation weeks
International migration
Age and sex
Country of last or next residence
Citizenship
Internal migration
Movements within the
United Kingdom
Marriage and divorce
First marriage: age and sex
Remarriages: age, sex and previous
marital status
Divorce: age and sex
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
51
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 1
Year
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Population and vital rates: international
United
Austria
Kingdom (1) (2)
Population** (thousands)
55,928
1971
1976
56,216
1981
56,352
1986
56,852
1991
57,808
Belgium
(2)
Denmark
(2)
Finland
(2)
France
(2)
Germany
Germany
(Fed. Rep) (2)* (2)†
Greece
(2)
Irish
Italy
Republic (2) (2)
Luxembourg (2)
Netherlands (2)
Portugal
(2)
7,501
7,566
7,569
7,588
7,818
9,673
9,811
9,859
9,862
10,005
4,963
5,073
5,122
5,121
5,154
4,612
4,726
4,800
4,918
5,014
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
61,302
61,531
61,682
61,066
64,074
78,352
78,321
78,419
77,694
80,014
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,967
10,247
2,978
3,228
3,443
3,541
3,526
54,074
55,718
56,510
56,596
56,751
342
361
365
368
387
13,195
13,774
14,247
14,572
15,070
8,644
9,355
9,851
10,011
9,871
7,989
8,028
8,047
8,059
10,085
10,116
10,137
10,157
5,189
5,205
5,228
5,262
5,066
5,089
5,108
5,125
57,654 65,534
57,899 65,858
58,137‡ 66,715
58,374‡
81,156
81,438
81,678
10,380
10,426
10,454
10,475
3,574
3,587‡
3,605‡
3,626‡
57,049
57,204
57,301
57,397
398
404
410
416
15,290
15,383
15,459
15,531
9,881
9,902
9,917
9,927
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1.0
1.7
2.9
1971–76
1976–81
0.5
0.1
1.0
1981–86
1.8
0.5
0.1
4.4
1.9
0.0
4.9
3.1
4.9
6.5
4.8
5.0
0.7
0.5
–2.0
-0.1
0.3
-1.8
7.6
12.3
4.9
6.1
2.8
0.3
10.7
2.5
1.8
8.8
6.9
4.6
16.5
10.6
3.2
4.1
3.9
3.1
2.1
1.9
3.2
3.7
3.0
4.4
6.4
5.6
4.8
4.4
3.7
3.3
5.6
4.9
4.2
4.1‡
4.1‡
12.3
10.3
4.9
13.0
7.6
6.6
3.5
2.9
7.3
5.6
4.5
2.7
2.0
1.9
3.4
2.7
1.7
1.7
13.9
14.3
14.3
14.6
14.4
7.6
7.0
6.1
4.9
4.6
–0.4
1.4
2.2
1.4
1.1
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
14.1
13.3
1971–75
1976–80
12.5
11.5
1981–85
12.9
12.0
1991
13.7
12.1
13.4
12.5
12.0
12.6
14.6
12.0
10.2
12.5
13.1
13.6
13.4
13.0
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.3
10.8
9.7
9.8
11.3
10.5
10.5
10.7
10.4
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.1
22.2
21.3
19.2
15.0
16.0
12.6
10.6
9.9
11.6
11.2
11.6
12.9
14.9
12.6
12.2
13.2
20.3
17.9
14.5
11.8
13.1
12.9
12.5
12.5
12.0‡
11.5‡
11.4‡
11.4‡
13.0
13.4
13.4
12.9‡
12.8
12.8
12.3
11.8
12.3
12.3
12.5‡
12.6‡
11.0
10.5
10.2
10.6‡
9.8
10.0
9.7
9.7‡
13.8
13.4‡
13.5‡
13.9‡
9.6
9.3
9.1‡
9.2‡
13.4
13.5
13.2
13.7
12.8
12.7
12.3
12.2‡
11.5
11.0
10.8
11.1
12.1
11.6
11.4
10.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.6
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.8
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.2
11.9
11.7
11.6
11.1
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
11.0
10.2
9.4
8.9
9.8
9.7
9.5
9.7
12.2
11.5
11.2
9.7
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.6
11.0
10.1
9.6
10.5
10.7‡
10.4‡
10.5‡
10.4‡
12.1
11.7
12.1
11.6‡
10.1
9.4
9.6
9.6
10.9
10.7
10.6
10.7‡
11.1
10.9
10.8
10.8‡
9.4
9.4
9.6
9.6‡
9.7
9.6‡
9.5‡
9.5‡
9.8
9.4
9.3
9.4
9.0
8.7
8.8
8.9‡
10.7
10.0
10.4
10.8
1993
1994
1995
1996
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1993
1994
1995
1996
58,191
58,395
58,606
58,801
3.4
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.3
12.3
9.3
4.9
2.4
1.6
11.9
11.5
11.0
11.0
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
11.8
12.6
1971–75
1976–80
11.9
12.3
1981–85
11.7
12.0
1991
11.3
10.7
1993
1994
1995
1996
11.3
10.7
10.9
10.9
10.3
10.0
10.1
10.0
* Excluding former GDR throughout.
† Including former GDR throughout.
** Populations estimated as follows.
‡ Provisional
≠ Estimates prepared by the Population Division
of the United Nations
+ Rates are for 1990-95
52
O f f i c e
f o r
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
9.2
9.0
9.2‡
9.2‡
9.9
9.5
9.4
9.7‡
16.8
13.3
5.7
8.8
4.8
3.9‡
5.0‡
5.8‡
8.7
8.6‡
8.8‡
8.7‡
At 30 June.
Average of populations at start and end of year as given in Council of Europe report. Recent demographic developments in Europe 1997.
EU as constituted 1 January 1986 and including countries subsequently admitted.
At 1 June.
At 31 December.
At 1 July for 1971, 1976 and 1987; at 1 March for 1981; UN estimates for 1983–5, data not comparable with other years.
At 1 October. (rates for Japan are based on population of Japanese nationality only.)
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 98 1 | | S uSm
p m
r i enr g 1 19 99 97 8
P Po op pu ul la at ti i oo nn TTr re enndd ss
Table 1
continued
Spain
(2)
Sweden
(2)
European
Union (3)
34,190
35,937
37,742
38,537
38,920
8,098
8,222
8,321
8,370
8,617
342,631
350,384
356,511
359,543
366,256
39,086
39,150
39,210
39,270
8,719
8,781
8,827
8,841
10.2
10.0
4.2
3.1
2.4
1.2
4.5
3.5
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.5
5.9
5.8
7.1
5.3
1.6
4.9≠
4.5≠
3.5≠
3.0≠
19.2
17.1
12.8
10.2
13.5
11.6
11.3
14.3
9.9
9.5
9.2‡
9.0‡
Russian
Australia
Federation(2) (1)
Canada
(4)
New
Zealand (5)
China
(5)
India
(6)
Japan
(7)
USA
(1)
Year
Population** (thousands)
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
139,422
144,475
148,624
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,284
22,026
23,517
24,900
26,204
28,120
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,450
852,290
943,033≠
1,011,219≠
1,086,733≠
1,170,052≠
551,311
617,248
676,218
767,199
851,661
105,145
113,094
117,902
121,672
123,102
207,661
218,035
230,138
240,680
252,177
369,706≠ 148,520
371,005≠ 148,336
372,122≠ 148,141
147,739
17,667
17,855
18,072
18,311
28,947
29,256
29,615
29,964‡
3,556
3,604
3,658
3,716
1,190,360≠
1,208,841≠
1,221,462≠
833,910
918,570≠
935,744≠
123,788
124,069
124,299
124,709
257,783
260,341
262,755
265,284
7.2
14.8
12.7
14.7
13.5
11.8
10.5
18.2
2.0
7.6
19.9
15.2
15.5
23.9
18.8
27.3
0.4
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-2.7
12.2
9.9
10.6
12.2
13.2
15.0
14.2
10.7
12.3
11.8‡
19.0
11.5
13.5
15.0
15.8
11.6
5.7
15.5
10.4
19.0
18.5
39.2
18.7
3.0
2.5
2.3
1.9
3.3
14.7
13.1
12.2
11.7
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.3
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.4
27.2
18.6
19.2
12.1
18.8
15.7
15.6
14.9
35.6
33.4
..
29.5
18.6
14.9
12.6
9.9
13.5
12.8
11.7
10.8
11.2≠
10.9≠
10.7≠
9.3
9.5
9.2
14.7
14.5
14.2
13.9
13.4
13.2
12.8
16.6
15.9
15.8
15.5
18.5+
28.7
28.6
9.6
10.0
9.6
9.7
8.5
8.0
7.7
8.6
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.4
10.2
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.0
8.4
8.2
8.1
7.7
7.3
6.6
6.7
11.4
8.2
7.6
7.3
6.9
15.5
13.8
..
9.8
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.7
8.7
8.6
8.7‡
8.6‡
11.1
10.5
10.6
10.6
10.2≠
9.9≠
10.0≠
14.3
15.5
14.9
6.8
7.1
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.2+
9.3
9.2
7.1
7.1
7.4
7.2
1993
1994
1995
1996
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
15.1
10.0
1971-76
8.5
10.9
1976-81
6.4
9.3
1981-86
11.5
10.6
9.9
9.3
9.6
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
15.3
1971-75
15.2
1976-80
15.7
1981-85
16.3
1991
15.5
15.2
14.8
14.8‡
1993
1994
1995
1996
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
9.1
1971-75
8.7
1976-80
8.6
1981-85
8.6
1991
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.8‡
1993
1994
1995
1996
See notes opposite
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
53
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 2
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Population: national
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year
thousands
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
England
and Wales
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Estimates
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
52,807
55,928
56,216
56,352
56,852
57,808
51,380
54,388
54,693
54,815
55,285
56,207
46,196
49,152
49,459
49,634
50,162
51,100
43,561
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,342
48,208
2,635
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,820
2,891
5,184
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,123
5,107
1,427
1,540
1,524
1,538
1,567
1,601
1993
1994
1995
1996
58,191
58,395
58,606
58,801
56,559
56,753
56,957
57,138
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
1,632
1,642
1,649
1,663
6.4
14.2
41.0
20.3
11.0
7.1
6.4
14.1
41.0
20.4
11.1
7.2
6.4
14.1
40.9
20.4
11.0
7.2
6.4
14.1
41.0
20.3
11.0
7.2
6.1
14.5
38.5
21.0
12.2
7.8
6.1
13.9
41.8
20.3
11.3
6.5
7.5
17.5
42.1
18.0
9.6
5.4
59,618
60,287
60,929
61,605
62,244
57,924
58,576
59,209
59,880
60,519
52,818
53,492
54,151
54,849
55,526
49,871
50,526
51,161
51,832
52,484
2,947
2,966
2,989
3,017
3,043
5,106
5,084
5,059
5,031
4,993
1,694
1,711
1,720
1,725
1,724
5.6
12.2
35.7
27.3
10.6
8.6
5.6
12.1
35.7
27.3
10.6
8.6
5.6
12.2
35.8
27.2
10.6
8.7
5.6
12.2
35.8
27.3
10.5
8.6
5.6
12.4
35.2
26.2
11.3
9.4
5.3
11.8
34.6
28.7
11.1
8.5
5.8
13.1
36.7
27.0
9.6
7.7
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F†
65M/60F–74†
75 and over
Projections*
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64†
65-74†
75 and over
*
†
These projections are based on the mid-1996 population estimates.
Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes.
Table 3
Population: subnational
Government Office Regions of England
Mid-year
thousands
North
East
North
West and
Merseyside
North
West
Merseyside
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,679
2,671
2,636
2,601
2,603
7,108
7,043
6,940
6,852
6,885
5,446
5,457
5,418
5,381
5,436
1,662
1,586
1,522
1,471
1,450
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,906
4,983
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,919
4,035
1993
1994
1995
1996
2,612
2,610
2,605
2,600
6,903
6,902
6,900
6,891
5,462
5,468
5,473
5,471
1,441
1,434
1,427
1,420
5,014
5,025
5,029
5,036
6.2
14.4
40.4
20.4
11.8
6.7
6.4
14.7
40.2
20.5
11.2
7.0
6.4
14.7
40.2
20.7
11.0
7.0
6.3
14.9
40.3
19.8
11.6
7.1
6.4
14.3
40.7
20.2
11.2
7.2
of which
(percentages)
0-4
5-15
16-44
45-64M/59F
65M/60F-74
75 and over
54
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
West
Midlands
Eastern
London
South
East
South
West
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,197
5,265
4,454
4,672
4,854
5,012
5,150
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,803
6,890
6,830
7,029
7,245
7,492
7,679
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,560
4,718
4,083
4,102
4,124
4,141
5,290
5,295
5,306
5,317
5,193
5,223
5,257
5,293
6,933
6,968
7,007
7,074
7,737
7,784
7,847
7,895
4,768
4,798
4,827
4,842
6.2
14.1
40.4
20.9
11.2
7.1
6.5
14.6
40.2
20.8
11.2
6.8
6.4
13.9
40.3
21.0
11.1
7.3
7.1
13.4
46.1
18.1
9.1
6.2
6.3
13.9
40.4
20.9
10.9
7.7
5.8
13.5
38.5
21.0
12.3
8.9
8 98 1 | | S uSm
p m
r i enr g 1 19 99 97 8
Table 4
Population: subnational
New health regions of England*
Mid-year
Estimates
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections*
2001
2006
2011
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–14
15–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75+
*
+
P Po op pu ul la at ti i oo nn TTr re enndd ss
thousands
Northern and
Yorkshire +
Trent +
Anglia and
Oxford
North
Thames
South
Thames
South and
West
West
Midlands
North
West
6,335
6,482
6,512
6,550
6,519
6,600
6,638
6,647
6,649
6,338
4,228
4,483
4,557
4,608
4,634
4,720
4,766
4,781
4,796
5,121
3,596
4,272
4,531
4,745
4,980
5,175
5,228
5,262
5,315
5,361
6,778
6,914
6,695
6,598
6,652
6,742
6,793
6,831
6,872
6,934
6,248
6,642
6,567
6,489
6,567
6,680
6,716
6,746
6,781
6,819
5,050
5,569
5,789
5,988
6,224
6,426
6,487
6,529
6,569
6,594
4,762
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,197
5,266
5,290
5,295
5,306
5,317
6,564
6,903
6,832
6,657
6,570
6,600
6,617
6,616
6,614
6,605
6.3
14.4
40.5
20.4
11.4
7.0
6.3
14.0
40.4
20.7
11.4
7.2
6.5
14.3
41.6
20.7
10.3
6.7
6.9
13.7
44.0
19.2
9.7
6.5
6.5
13.4
41.5
20.0
10.7
7.9
5.9
13.6
39.1
20.9
11.9
8.5
6.5
14.6
40.2
20.8
11.2
6.8
6.4
14.8
40.3
20.4
11.1
7.0
6,746
6,792
6,824
4,912
4,989
5,054
5,591
5,783
5,949
7,031
7,170
7,269
6,901
7,002
7,081
6,771
6,922
7,056
5,375
5,418
5,453
6,694
6,735
6,771
5.8
12.4
39.5
22.8
11.7
7.9
5.9
12.5
40.2
22.3
11.3
7.8
6.1
13.1
40.3
22.7
10.7
7.1
6.6
12.9
43.3
21.1
9.6
6.5
6.0
12.4
40.3
22.3
10.9
8.1
5.5
11.9
38.1
23.0
12.1
9.3
6.2
13.0
39.8
22.2
11.2
7.5
6.2
13.1
39.9
22.2
11.2
7.4
Areas as constituted in 1994. Population figures for years before 1981 may relate to different areas where boundaries have changed.
From 1 April 1996 boundary changes due to local government reorganisation has led to changes in the constitution of the Northern and Yorkshire and Trent health regions. South Humber health authority with 311.3
thousand people - mid 1996 is now included in the Trent region rather than in the Northern and Yorkshire region.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
55
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 5
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Components of population change
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
Great Britain
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
England and Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
England
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
Total
annual
change
Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
Births
Deaths
Natural
Net civilian migration
change
Total
To/from
rest of
UK
55,928
56,216
57,808
58,006
58,191
58,395
58,606
58,801
+ 58
+ 27
+199
+185
+203
+211
+196
766
705
793
764
763
738
723
670
662
639
635
652
632
646
+ 96
+ 42
+ 154
+ 130
+ 111
+ 106
+ 77
– 55
– 33
+ 45
+ 43
+ 74
+ 108
+ 110
54,388
54,693
56,207
56,388
56,559
56,753
56,957
57,138
+ 61
+ 24
+182
+171
+194
+204
+181
738
678
767
739
738
714
699
653
646
624
620
636
616
630
+ 85
+ 32
+ 143
+ 120
+ 102
+ 97
+ 69
– 42
– 25
+ 42
+ 40
+ 73
+ 108
+ 104
+
+
–
–
+
+
-
49,152
49,459
51,100
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
+ 61
+ 35
+177
+162
+181
+200
+190
644
612
700
675
675
653
640
588
582
563
558
574
557
569
+ 76
+ 30
+ 137
+ 117
+ 102
+ 96
+ 71
– 28
– 9
+ 41
+ 35
+ 63
+ 104
+ 110
+ 10
+ 11
– 12
– 8
– 6
+ 1
+ 3
–
–
–
–
+
+
—
9
3
6
2
1
1
1
46,412
46,660
48,208
48,378
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
+ 50
+ 32
+170
+154
+175
+196
+186
627
577
662
638
638
618
606
552
546
529
524
538
522
534
+ 75
+ 31
+ 133
+ 114
+ 100
+ 96
+ 72
– 35
– 11
+ 40
+ 32
+ 59
+ 100
+ 104
+ 1
+ 6
– 15
– 11
– 8
—
+ 1
–
–
–
–
+
+
—
2,740
2,799
2,891
2,899
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
+ 12
+ 3
+ 7
+ 8
+ 7
+ 4
+ 4
37
35
38
37
37
35
34
36
36
34
34
36
34
35
+
–
+
+
+
+
—
1
1
4
3
1
1
1
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
7
2
2
3
4
4
6
+ 10
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
5,236
5,233
5,107
5,111
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
—
– 11
+ 4
+ 9
+ 12
+ 4
– 9
73
66
67
64
63
61
59
64
64
61
62
63
60
61
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
9
2
6
2
1
1
2
– 14
– 16
—
+ 5
+ 10
+ 4
– 6
– 4
– 7
+ 10
+ 7
+ 7
—
– 5
–
–
–
–
+
+
–
10
10
9
2
3
4
1
1,540
1,524
1,601
1,618
1,632
1,642
1,649
1,663
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
28
27
26
25
25
24
24
17
17
15
15
16
15
15
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
11
10
11
10
9
9
9
– 14
– 8
+ 4
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
+ 6
–
–
+
+
–
–
+
–
–
+
+
+
+
+
7
3
2
3
3
1
4
To/from
Irish
Republic
Beyond
British
Isles
Other
changes
Population
at end of
period
Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
– 55
– 33
+ 45
+ 43
+ 74
+108
+ 110
+
+
–
+
+
–
+
16
18
1
12
18
3
8
56,216
56,352
58,006
58,191
58,395
58,606
58,801
7
4
2
1
2
1
3
– 48
– 29
+ 44
+ 40
+ 72
+107
+ 107
+
+
–
+
+
–
+
17
18
3
12
18
1
8
54,693
54,815
56,388
56,559
56,753
56,957
57,138
– 29
– 17
+ 58
+ 45
+ 68
+102
+108
+
+
–
+
+
–
+
13
14
1
10
16
1
9
49,459
49,634
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
9
3
5
2
1
1
1
– 27
– 15
+ 60
+ 45
+ 67
+ 99
+ 104
+ 10
+ 12
– 2
+ 8
+ 15
—
+ 9
46,660
46,821
48,378
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
– 2
– 2
– 2
—
+ 2
+ 2
+ 5
+
+
+
+
+
3
2
1
2
1
—
—
2,799
2,813
2,899
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
+
+
–
+
+
4
4
2
2
2
—
– 1
5,233
5,180
5,111
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
–
1,524
1,538
1,618
1,632
1,642
1,649
1,663







1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
—
—
—
—
—
—
—







1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
thousands
Population at
start of
period







Mid-year to
mid-year
Scotland
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
Northern Ireland
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
56
O f f i c e
f o r
3
3
17
13
10
7
14
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
7
4
2
1
2
1
3
1
—
+ 2
—
—
– 2
—
8 98 1 | | S uSm
p m
r i enr g 1 19 99 97 8
Table 6
Midyear
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
All
ages
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Great Britain
Persons
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
58,395
58,606
58,801
899
730
794
759
734
719
3,654
2,725
3,092
3,117
3,102
3,044
8,916
8,147
7,175
7,483
7,526
7,595
8,144
9,019
8,247
7,554
7,450
7,325
6,971
8,010
9,057
9,375
9,409
9,420
6,512
6,774
7,955
7,837
7,931
8,093
10,202
9,540
9,500
10,277
10,445
10,582
3,222
2,935
2,888
2,808
2,784
2,772
27,167
27,409
28,246
28,592
28,727
28,856
461
374
407
389
376
369
1,874
1,399
1,588
1,596
1,589
1,560
4,576
4,184
3,688
3,840
3,861
3,897
4,137
4,596
4,227
3,879
3,825
3,760
3,530
4,035
4,591
4,767
4,793
4,805
3,271
3,409
3,986
3,929
3,984
4,072
4,970
4,711
4,732
5,118
5,201
5,270
28,761
28,943
29,562
29,803
29,878
29,946
437
356
387
370
358
350
1,779
1,326
1,505
1,521
1,513
1,484
4,340
3,963
3,487
3,643
3,665
3,698
4,008
4,423
4,021
3,674
3,625
3,565
3,441
3,975
4,466
4,608
4,616
4,615
3,241
3,365
3,968
3,908
3,947
4,020
54,388
54,815
56,207
56,753
56,957
57,138
867
703
768
734
710
695
3,528
2,621
2,988
3,013
2,999
2,943
8,617
7,865
6,915
7,218
7,262
7,330
7,898
8,748
7,991
7,302
7,198
7,074
6,782
7,810
8,817
9,123
9,156
9,163
26,413
26,655
27,465
27,790
27,922
28,043
446
360
394
377
364
357
1,810
1,346
1,534
1,543
1,536
1,509
4,424
4,039
3,555
3,704
3,726
3,761
4,009
4,455
4,095
3,749
3,694
3,630
27,975
28,160
28,742
28,963
29,035
29,095
422
343
374
357
346
338
1,718
1,275
1,454
1,470
1,463
1,435
4,193
3,827
3,360
3,514
3,536
3,569
51,621
51,820
52,010
782
634
702
671
649
636
3,170
2,372
2,728
2,752
2,739
2,688
23,897
24,160
24,995
25,304
25,433
25,557
402
324
360
344
333
327
25,256
25,474
26,104
26,317
26,385
26,453
380
310
342
327
316
310
England and Wales
Persons
49,152
1971
1981
49,634
1991
51,100
1994
1995
1996
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
thousands
Age-group
Under 1 1–4
United Kingdom
Persons
55,928
1971
1981
56,352
1991
57,808
1994
1995
1996
P Po op pu ul la at ti i oo nn TTr re enndd ss
75–84
85 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
4,764
5,195
5,067
5,223
5,127
5,058
2,160
2,675
3,136
2,952
3,054
3,125
485
602
896
1,011
1,044
1,067
14,257
12,541
11,741
12,075
12,106
12,098
32,548
33,780
35,469
35,689
35,848
36,035
9,123
10,031
10,597
10,630
10,652
10,668
1,507
1,376
1,390
1,363
1,358
1,355
1,999
2,264
2,272
2,363
2,330
2,310
716
921
1,151
1,096
1,147
1,185
126
141
214
251
263
273
7,318
6,438
6,033
6,194
6,208
6,205
17,008
17,646
18,576
18,687
18,779
18,882
2,841
3,325
3,637
3,710
3,740
3,768
5,232
4,829
4,769
5,159
5,244
5,312
1,715
1,559
1,498
1,444
1,427
1,418
2,765
2,931
2,795
2,861
2,797
2,748
1,443
1,755
1,986
1,856
1,907
1,940
359
461
682
759
781
794
6,938
6,103
5,708
5,881
5,898
5,893
15,540
16,134
16,893
17,002
17,069
17,153
6,282
6,706
6,961
6,920
6,911
6,900
6,348
6,599
7,755
7,628
7,718
7,875
9,959
9,313
9,259
10,020
10,184
10,316
3,148
2,867
2,818
2,738
2,716
2,703
4,658
5,079
4,948
5,100
5,004
4,936
2,109
2,620
3,070
2,884
2,985
3,054
476
589
878
992
1,026
1,048
13,774
12,099
11,326
11,656
11,689
11,683
31,695
32,906
34,525
34,713
34,864
35,036
8,918
9,810
10,356
10,384
10,405
10,420
3,435
3,934
4,473
4,642
4,668
4,677
3,190
3,322
3,887
3,825
3,879
3,965
4,854
4,602
4,614
4,992
5,073
5,139
1,471
1,345
1,358
1,331
1,325
1,322
1,954
2,214
2,219
2,309
2,276
2,257
697
901
1,127
1,072
1,122
1,159
123
137
210
247
259
268
7,072
6,211
5,820
5,980
5,994
5,992
16,567
17,192
18,089
18,183
18,272
18,367
2,774
3,252
3,556
3,627
3,656
3,683
3,889
4,293
3,896
3,553
3,503
3,444
3,346
3,877
4,344
4,481
4,488
4,485
3,158
3,277
3,868
3,803
3,839
3,910
5,105
4,711
4,645
5,028
5,111
5,177
1,676
1,522
1,460
1,407
1,390
1,381
2,704
2,865
2,728
2,791
2,728
2,679
1,412
1,719
1,943
1,813
1,863
1,896
353
452
668
745
767
780
6,702
5,888
5,506
5,676
5,694
5,690
15,129
15,714
16,436
16,529
16,592
16,669
6,145
6,558
6,800
6,757
6,748
6,736
7,705
7,085
6,281
6,568
6,613
6,683
7,117
7,873
7,237
6,612
6,521
6,411
6,164
7,086
8,008
8,293
8,329
8,342
5,736
5,996
7,056
6,925
7,003
7,146
9,034
8,433
8,407
9,118
9,272
9,397
2,853
2,607
2,553
2,478
2,458
2,447
4,228
4,619
4,506
4,644
4,554
4,490
1,926
2,388
2,810
2,642
2,734
2,800
438
541
810
917
948
970
12,334
10,910
10,303
10,618
10,653
10,655
28,710
29,796
31,351
31,530
31,676
31,851
8,108
8,928
9,446
9,473
9,491
9,505
1,626
1,218
1,401
1,410
1,403
1,378
3,957
3,639
3,231
3,371
3,394
3,430
3,615
4,011
3,710
3,396
3,348
3,291
3,129
3,569
4,065
4,225
4,252
4,265
2,891
3,024
3,539
3,475
3,523
3,602
4,414
4,178
4,199
4,551
4,626
4,689
1,337
1,227
1,234
1,209
1,204
1,201
1,778
2,020
2,027
2,109
2,078
2,059
637
825
1,035
985
1,032
1,066
112
126
194
229
240
249
6,334
5,601
5,296
5,448
5,465
5,466
15,036
15,589
16,442
16,533
16,619
16,716
2,527
2,970
3,257
3,323
3,349
3,375
1,544
1,154
1,328
1,342
1,335
1,310
3,749
3,446
3,050
3,197
3,219
3,253
3,502
3,863
3,527
3,216
3,172
3,120
3,036
3,517
3,943
4,069
4,076
4,077
2,845
2,972
3,517
3,449
3,480
3,544
4,620
4,255
4,208
4,567
4,646
4,709
1,516
1,380
1,319
1,270
1,254
1,246
2,450
2,599
2,479
2,536
2,477
2,430
1,289
1,564
1,775
1,656
1,702
1,733
325
415
616
688
708
721
6,000
5,309
5,007
5,170
5,188
5,188
13,673
14,207
14,908
14,997
15,058
15,134
5,581
5,958
6,189
6,150
6,141
6,130
O f f i c e
f o r
65–74
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
57
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 6
continued
Midyear
England
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Wales
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Scotland
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
58
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
All
ages
thousands
Age-group
Under 1 1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
22,569
22,795
23,588
23,882
24,008
24,129
380
306
340
326
315
309
1,537
1,147
1,322
1,332
1,327
1,304
3,734
3,430
3,043
3,175
3,198
3,233
3,421
3,790
3,507
3,207
3,160
3,106
2,965
3,377
3,859
4,012
4,039
4,051
2,733
2,856
3,344
3,286
3,333
3,410
4,161
3,938
3,957
4,289
4,360
4,420
1,261
1,154
1,159
1,136
1,132
1,129
23,843
24,026
24,620
24,825
24,896
24,960
359
292
324
309
300
293
1,459
1,088
1,253
1,268
1,262
1,239
3,538
3,248
2,873
3,010
3,033
3,065
3,310
3,650
3,333
3,039
2,998
2,948
2,875
3,327
3,739
3,862
3,871
3,872
2,688
2,807
3,322
3,259
3,289
3,351
4,354
4,009
3,964
4,304
4,378
4,437
1,329
1,365
1,407
1,422
1,425
1,428
22
18
20
19
18
17
89
70
79
77
76
74
222
209
188
196
196
197
194
221
203
190
188
185
164
193
206
213
214
214
158
168
195
189
190
192
1,412
1,448
1,484
1,491
1,491
1,493
21
18
19
18
17
16
85
66
75
74
73
71
211
199
177
186
187
188
191
213
194
177
175
172
161
190
203
207
206
206
2,516
2,495
2,470
2,486
2,489
2,486
44
35
34
32
31
30
184
128
133
133
133
130
467
400
325
333
332
331
394
445
385
353
346
339
2,720
2,685
2,637
2,646
2,647
2,642
42
33
32
31
30
29
174
121
126
128
128
125
445
380
309
318
317
316
802
805
812
16
14
13
12
12
12
64
53
54
53
52
51
786
783
820
840
844
851
16
13
13
12
12
12
62
51
51
51
50
49
Northern Ireland
Males
755
1971
1981
754
1991
781
1994
1995
1996
T r e n d s
O f f i c e
f o r
75–84
85 and
over
1,671
1,902
1,900
1,977
1,948
1,931
599
777
975
926
969
1,002
107
119
183
216
227
235
1,429
1,295
1,239
1,193
1,178
1,170
2,305
2,445
2,323
2,378
2,322
2,279
1,217
1,472
1,670
1,555
1,598
1,627
253
240
242
262
266
269
76
73
74
72
72
72
107
118
128
131
130
128
157
165
195
190
190
193
265
246
244
263
268
272
88
85
80
77
76
76
306
364
407
418
416
413
299
298
348
350
356
362
440
424
415
441
446
450
387
430
369
337
331
324
311
359
402
412
411
408
313
305
351
353
359
366
152
145
133
136
135
136
127
140
132
130
130
129
95
102
119
125
125
127
147
137
127
129
129
129
119
130
125
121
122
121
95
98
121
128
128
130
N a t i o n a l
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
5,982
5,280
4,991
5,137
5,155
5,158
14,209
14,717
15,539
15,626
15,709
15,803
2,377
2,798
3,058
3,119
3,144
3,167
309
392
580
648
667
678
5,666
5,004
4,720
4,874
4,893
4,894
12,918
13,416
14,088
14,177
14,237
14,311
5,259
5,605
5,812
5,774
5,765
5,755
38
48
60
60
62
65
6
7
11
13
14
14
352
321
305
311
310
308
827
871
904
907
910
913
150
173
199
204
206
207
146
154
156
158
154
151
73
91
105
101
104
106
16
22
36
40
41
42
335
305
288
295
295
294
755
791
820
820
820
824
322
352
377
376
376
375
134
118
124
122
121
121
176
194
192
200
198
197
60
77
91
86
90
92
11
11
16
18
19
19
738
610
524
531
530
526
1,530
1,603
1,646
1,651
1,653
1,651
247
282
299
304
307
309
485
456
437
461
465
469
160
142
141
138
136
135
254
265
249
256
252
249
122
155
168
157
160
163
27
38
53
57
59
59
701
579
499
507
506
502
1,455
1,506
1,528
1,532
1,534
1,534
563
600
611
607
607
606
81
87
100
104
105
108
116
109
118
126
128
131
36
32
32
33
32
33
45
50
52
54
54
54
19
20
24
25
26
26
3
4
4
4
5
5
246
227
213
214
214
213
441
454
487
504
508
515
67
73
81
83
84
85
84
88
100
105
107
111
126
118
123
131
133
135
39
37
38
37
36
36
61
66
67
69
69
69
32
36
43
43
44
45
6
9
13
14
14
14
237
215
203
205
203
203
411
420
457
472
477
484
138
148
160
163
163
164
S t a t i s t i c s
65–74
Under
16
8 98 1 | | S uSm
p m
r i enr g 1 19 99 97 8
Table 7
Mid-year
Population: age, sex, and marital status
England and Wales
16–24
Married
Divorced
4,173
5,013
6,024
6,089
6,147
6,221
6,345
6,482
12,522
12,238
11,745
11,663
11,580
11,492
11,415
11,339
187
611
1,200
1,269
1,342
1,413
1,480
1,543
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996*
3,583
4,114
4,822
4,871
4,906
4,958
5,058
5,171
12,566
12,284
11,838
11,749
11,661
11,583
11,488
11,406
296
828
1,459
1,533
1,610
1,684
1,754
1,819
Mid-year
35–44
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996*
Females
1971
1981
Males
1971
1981
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996*
Females
1971
1981
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996*
thousands
All ages 16 and over
Single
Males
1971
1981
P Po op pu ul la at ti i oo nn TTr re enndd ss
Widowed
25–34
Single
Married
Divorced
682
698
731
732
732
730
729
728
2,539
3,095
3,136
3,060
2,984
2,911
2,878
2,848
724
485
257
220
186
155
129
107
3
10
12
10
8
7
6
5
2,810
2,939
2,978
2,963
2,946
2,922
2,898
2,870
1,907
2,530
2,688
2,643
2,589
2,547
2,543
2,539
1,255
904
522
458
400
344
294
250
9
27
30
26
23
20
17
15
Widowed
Single
Married
—
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
637
906
1,718
1,829
1,925
2,025
2,125
2,223
2,450
2,508
2,100
2,055
2,001
1,941
1,873
1,794
38
151
245
251
254
255
252
244
4
4
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
—
—
326
496
1,135
1,222
1,298
1,375
1,454
1,537
2,635
2,791
2,488
2,449
2,400
2,351
2,280
2,203
63
218
312
322
330
335
335
330
12
13
8
7
8
7
7
7
45–64
Single
Married
Divorced
317
316
482
497
522
556
601
657
2,513
2,519
2,658
2,561
2,500
2,463
2,446
2,449
48
178
388
403
423
444
464
483
201
170
280
295
316
343
374
414
2,529
2,540
2,760
2,669
2,612
2,587
2,568
2,575
66
222
444
456
473
491
509
527
Widowed
Divorced
Widowed
65 and over
Single
Married
Divorced
13
12
12
11
12
12
12
13
502
480
456
468
479
489
500
512
4,995
4,560
4,394
4,479
4,532
4,564
4,581
4,587
81
218
456
499
544
587
630
673
48
41
34
32
31
29
29
28
569
386
292
295
297
300
305
310
4,709
4,358
4,211
4,308
4,376
4,422
4,452
4,473
125
271
521
568
615
659
703
746
Widowed
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
173
147
127
125
122
120
119
118
179
216
231
235
237
239
241
242
1,840
2,167
2,337
2,349
2,360
2,368
2,385
2,401
17
54
99
106
113
121
128
137
492
534
589
593
596
595
595
594
733
620
503
487
471
456
440
425
580
533
427
416
405
393
382
370
1,437
1,692
1,858
1,866
1,873
1,879
1,893
1,904
32
90
153
161
170
179
190
201
2,016
2,263
2,433
2,436
2,436
2,429
2,422
1,904
* Marital status estimates for 1996 are still provisional. Final estimates will be prepared when the 1996 marriage and divorces data sets have been finalised.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
59
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 8
United Kingdom
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
Great Britain
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Divorces
Deaths
Infant
mortality
Neonatal
mortality
Perinatal
mortality
Number Rate*
Number
Rate†
Number Rate**
Number Rate†††
Number Rate*
Number Rate†
Number Rate†
Number Rate††
976.6
901.6
675.5
730.8
755.0
792.5
750.7
732.0
733.4
17.9
16.1
12.0
13.0
13.3
13.7
12.9
12.5
12.5
74.2
73.9
61.1
91.3
158.5
236.1
240.1
245.7
260.4
76
82
90
125
210
298
320
336
355
437.1
459.4
406.0
397.8
393.9
349.7
331.2
322.3
317.5‡
..
..
..
49.4
43.5
36.0
..
..
..
42.8
..
79.6
..
135.4
..
156.4 11.3
168.2 12.5
173.5 13.0
173.6
..
170.0
..
167.7‡ ..
643.8
645.1
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
627.6
641.7
638.9
631.2‡
11.8 19.2
11.5 16.2
12.1
9.79
11.7
8.16
11.6
7.18
11.3
5.82
10.7
4.63
10.9
4.52
10.9
4.50
10.7‡
19.6
17.9
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.2
6.2
6.1
13.0
10.8
6.68
4.93
4.00
3.46
3.09
3.05
3.00
13.2
12.0
9.9
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.1
26.6
20.7
12.3
8.79
7.31
6.45
6.74‡‡
6.52‡‡
6.41‡‡
26.7
22.6
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
8.9
8.9
8.7
12.5‡
269.1‡
366‡
178.0
178.3
191.4
185.6
178.5‡
184.9‡
186.0‡
12.2
12.2
13.0
12.6
12.3‡
12.6‡
12.5‡
61.8
61.3
68.8
68.6
65.5‡
66.3‡
68.8‡
347
344
359
369
367‡
358‡
370‡
41.0‡
91.4‡
129.4‡
55.8‡
..
..
..
..
181.0
149.7
144.1
164.1
180.2‡
150.2‡
141.8‡
159.0‡
12.4
10.2
9.7
11.1
12.4‡
10.2‡
9.6‡
10.7‡
1.19
1.07
1.13
1.12
6.7
6.0
5.9
6.0
0.74
0.74
0.80
0.72
4.2
4.1
4.2
3.9
1.58‡‡
1.61‡‡
1.66‡‡
1.55‡‡
8.8
9.0
8.6
8.3
946.4
869.9
649.2
703.5
726.8
766.2
726.4
708.2
708.8
17.8
16.0
11.9
12.8
13.2
13.6
12.8
12.4
12.4
73.2
72.7
59.8
89.4
154.9
230.8
234.8
240.2
254.0
77
84
92
127
213
301
323
339
358
426.3
447.2
396.1
388.2
383.7
340.5
322.5
313.7
309.2‡
..
68.5
57.3
49.4
43.4
35.9
32.7
31.2
30.2‡
42.6
79.2
134.8
155.6
166.7
171.1
171.3
167.7
165.4‡
..
5.8
9.8
11.5
12.7
13.2
13.5
13.3
13.2‡
627.3
628.9
663.8
641.7
644.7
631.1
612.5
626.4
623.7
616.5‡
11.8 18.4
11.6 15.4
12.1
9.30
11.7
7.80
11.7
6.89
11.3
5.63
10.8
4.48
11.0
4.35
10.9
4.36
10.8‡
19.4
17.8
14.3
11.1
9.5
7.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
12.4
10.3
6.33
4.70
3.83
3.34
2.98
2.92
2.91
13.1
11.8
9.7
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
4.1
4.1
25.6
19.8
11.7
8.37
7.04
6.23
6.50‡‡
6.27‡‡
6.18‡‡
26.6
22.5
17.8
11.8
9.6
8.1
8.9
8.8
8.7
12.4‡
262.6‡
370‡
171.8
172.3
185.1
179.6
172.6‡
178.6‡
179.8‡
12.1
12.1
12.9
12.5
12.3‡
12.5‡
12.5‡
60.2
59.8
67.2
66.9
63.9‡
64.6‡
67.1‡
350
347
363
373
370‡
362‡
373‡
40.0‡
89.2‡
125.7‡
54.3‡
15.7‡
35.1‡
48.9‡
21.1‡
43.3‡
42.3‡
43.3‡
36.6‡
13.9‡
13.6‡
13.8‡
11.6‡
176.6
146.1
140.6
160.3
176.1‡
146.6‡
138.4‡
155.4‡
12.4
10.3
9.8
11.2
12.5‡
10.3‡
9.6‡
10.8‡
1.15
1.03
1.09
1.08
6.7
6.0
5.9
6.0
0.71
0.72
0.78
0.70
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.9
1.50‡‡
1.56‡‡
1.61‡‡
1.51‡‡
8.7
9.0
8.6
8.3
849.8
783.2
584.3
634.5
661.0
699.2
664.7
648.1
649.5
17.7
15.9
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
12.9
12.5
12.5
67.1
65.7
53.8
81.0
141.3
211.3
215.5
219.9
232.7
79
84
92
128
214
302
324
339
358
384.5
404.7
358.6
352.0
347.9
306.8
291.1
283.0
279.0‡
65.1
69.0
57.7
49.6
43.5
35.6
32.5
31.0
30.0‡
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
158.2
155.5
154.3‡
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.5
13.7
13.6
13.6‡
563.6
567.3
598.5
577.9
581.2
570.0
553.2
565.9
563.0
557.7‡
11.8 16.1
11.5 13.7
12.1
8.34
11.6
7.02
11.6
6.31
11.2
5.16
10.7
4.10
10.9
3.98
10.8
3.99
10.7‡
19.0
17.5
14.3
11.1
9.6
7.4
6.2
6.1
6.1
10.9
9.11
5.66
4.23
3.49
3.05
2.74
2.68
2.68
12.9
11.6
9.7
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
4.1
4.1
22.7
17.6
10.5
7.56
6.37
5.65
5.95‡‡
5.69‡‡
5.62‡‡
26.3
22.3
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
8.9
8.7
8.6
12.5‡
239.8‡
369‡
12.2
12.2
13.0
12.6
12.3‡
12.6‡
12.5‡
55.0
54.8
61.6
61.2
58.5‡
58.8‡
61.3‡
350
346
363
373
370‡
361‡
373‡
36.5‡
80.7‡
114.1‡
47.9‡
15.8‡
34.9‡
48.8‡
20.5‡
40.3‡
39.1‡
40.1‡
34.8‡
14.2‡
13.8‡
14.1‡
12.2‡
159.6
131.8
126.8
144.8
160.0‡
133.2‡
124.7‡
139.8‡
12.3
10.2
9.7
11.1
12.5‡
10.3‡
9.5‡
10.7‡
6.7
5.9
5.9
6.1
0.66
0.66
0.72
0.65
4.2
4.1
4.2
3.9
1.37‡‡
1.41‡‡
1.48‡‡
1.37‡‡
8.6
8.9
8.7
8.3
1994
1995
1996
1997
Year ending Sept 1997 710.6‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
England and Wales
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
thousands
All live
births
1994
1995
1996
1997
Year ending Sept 1997 735.1‡
1994
1995
1996
1997
Year ending Sept 1997 649.6‡
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
9 1
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
T r e n d s
157.3
158.1
169.9
164.2
158.1‡
162.9‡
164.4‡
1.05
0.94
1.01
0.97
* Per 1,000 population all ages. † Per 1,000 live births. ** Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over. †† Per 1,000 live and still births.
‡ Provisional. ††† Per 1,000 married population. ‡‡ Figures given include stillbirths of 24–27 weeks gestation (see Notes to tables).
Notes: 1. Rates for the most recent quarters will be particularly subject to revision, even when standard detail is given, as they are based on provisional numbers or on estimates derived from events registered in the period.
2. Deaths for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994 figures which represent the numbers of deaths occurring each year.
3. The marriage and divorce rates for 1991 onwards differ in part from those previously published because of a revision of the denominators.
60
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 98 1 | | S uSm
p m
r i enr g 1 19 99 97 8
Table 8
continued
Year and
quarter
England
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
Wales
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Divorces
Deaths
Infant
mortality
Neonatal
mortality
Perinatal
mortality
Number Rate*
Number
Rate†
Number Rate**
Number Rate†††
Number Rate*
Number Rate†
Number Rate†
Number Rate††
805.0
740.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
629.0
613.2
614.2
17.8
15.9
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
13.0
12.5
12.5
64.2
62.6
50.8
76.9
133.5
198.9
202.7
206.8
218.2
80
85
92
129
214
301
322
337
355
363.8
382.3
339.0
332.2
328.4
290.1
275.5
268.3
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
146.0
150.1
149.6
147.5
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
529.0
532.4
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
517.6
529.0
526.7
521.3‡
11.7 15.2
11.5 12.9
12.0
7.83
11.6
6.50
11.5
5.92
11.2
4.86
10.7
3.83
10.8
3.74
10.7
3.74
10.6‡
18.9
17.5
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
10.3
8.58
5.32
3.93
3.27
2.87
2.57
2.56
2.53
12.8
11.6
9.7
6.6
5.2
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.1
21.3
16.6
9.81
7.04
5.98
5.33
5.58‡‡
5.41‡‡
5.36‡‡
26.1
22.1
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
8.8
8.8
8.7
12.5‡
224.9‡
366‡
148.8
149.7
160.7
155.1
149.4‡
154.3‡
155.6‡
12.2
12.3
13.0
12.6
12.3‡
12.6‡
12.6‡
51.5
51.4
57.8
57.4
54.8‡
55.1‡
57.6‡
346
344
360
370
367‡
357‡
370‡
34.6‡
76.4‡
108.0‡
45.3‡
..
..
..
..
38.2‡
36.9‡
38.0‡
32.8‡
..
..
..
..
149.4
123.4
118.4
135.5
149.7‡
124.5‡
116.4‡
130.7‡
12.2
10.1
9.6
11.0
12.4‡
10.2‡
9.4‡
10.6‡
0.99
0.88
0.94
0.94
6.7
5.9
5.8
6.0
0.62
0.62
0.68
0.62
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
1.30‡‡
1.34‡‡
1.42‡‡
1.31‡‡
8.7
8.9
8.8
8.4
44.9
43.1
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
35.4
34.5
34.9
16.6
15.7
11.9
12.7
13.1
13.2
12.2
11.8
11.9
2.8
3.1
2.9
4.0
7.8
12.3
12.7
13.1
14.4
63
71
86
112
211
323
360
381
412
20.7
22.4
19.5
19.8
19.5
16.6
15.5
14.7
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
7.9
8.6
8.6
8.0
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
34.6
34.8
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
33.9
35.3
34.8
34.8‡
12.8
12.7
13.0
12.4
12.3
11.8
11.6
12.1
11.9
11.9‡
0.91
0.79
0.46
0.45
0.35
0.25
0.22
0.20
0.20
20.3
18.4
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
6.1
5.8
5.6
0.62
0.53
0.32
0.29
0.21
0.16
0.14
0.13
0.13
13.8
12.3
9.6
8.1
5.6
4.1
4.1
3.8
3.6
1.38
1.07
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
0.33‡‡
0.27‡‡
0.26‡‡
30.1
24.4
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
9.3
7.8
7.5
12.0‡
14.9‡ 423‡
..
..
..
..
2.1‡
2.2‡
2.1‡
2.0‡
..
..
..
..
9.9
8.1
8.0
8.9
10.0‡
8.4‡
7.8‡
8.7‡
13.6
11.1
10.9
12.1
13.8‡
11.5‡
10.6‡
11.8‡
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.04
5.7
5.7
6.4
4.7
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.02
3.9
4.2
3.8
2.6
0.07‡‡
0.07‡‡
0.06‡‡
0.06‡‡
8.1
8.4
7.0
6.7
..
3.9
6.5
8.0
10.7
10.6
11.4
10.7
9.9
63.7
61.6
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
59.3
60.5
60.7
58.7‡
12.3
11.8
12.5
12.4
12.4
12.0
11.6
11.8
11.8
11.5‡
2.24
1.72
0.96
0.78
0.58
0.47
0.38
0.38
0.37
23.2
19.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
6.2
6.2
1.47
1.17
0.67
0.47
0.34
0.29
0.25
0.24
0.23
15.2
13.5
10.3
6.9
5.2
4.4
4.0
4.0
3.9
2.87
2.15
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.56‡‡
0.58‡‡
0.55‡‡
29.3
24.5
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
9.0
9.6
9.2
3.0 10.8
3.2 11.3
3.1 10.8
1.8 6.5
17.0
14.3
13.8
15.5
16.1‡
13.4‡
13.7‡
15.6‡
13.3
11.2
10.7
12.1
12.7‡
10.5‡
10.6‡
12.0‡
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
6.7
6.5
5.8
5.6
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
3.8
4.2
3.9
3.8
0.14‡‡
0.15‡‡
0.13‡‡
0.14‡‡
9.4
10.3
8.2
9.1
1994
1995
1996
1997
Year ending Sept 1997 35.2‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
Scotland
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
8.4
8.3
9.1
9.0
8.7‡
8.6‡
8.8‡
96.5
86.7
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
61.7
60.1
59.3
1994
1995
1996
1997
Year ending Sept 1997 61.1‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
thousands
All live
births
1994
1995
1996
1997
Year ending Sept 1997 614.3‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
P Po op pu ul la at ti i oo nn TTr re enndd ss
14.5
14.2
15.1
15.4
14.6
15.7
15.4
11.6
11.4
12.4
12.3
12.0‡
11.9‡
12.0‡
3.5
3.3
3.8
3.8
3.7‡
3.6‡
3.7‡
412
396
413
425
427‡
422‡
420‡
18.6
16.6
12.5
13.4
12.9
13.1
12.0
11.7
11.6
6.2
7.0
6.0
8.5
13.6
19.5
19.2
20.3
21.4
11.9‡
22.8‡ 373‡
11.4
11.2
11.7
12.0
11.5‡
12.3‡
11.9‡
5.1
5.0
5.5
5.7
5.4
5.8
5.8
64
81
93
122
206
291
312
337
360
354
352
366
368
373
371
380
1.9‡
4.3‡
6.1‡
2.5‡
41.9
42.5
37.5
36.2
35.8
33.8
31.5
30.7
30.2
..
64.1
53.8
47.5
42.8
38.7
35.1
33.7
32.8
3.5
8.5
11.7
6.5
15.3
36.9
50.6
28.2
3.6
4.8
8.1
9.9
12.8
12.4
13.1
12.2
11.1
* Per 1,000 population all ages. † Per 1,000 live births. ** Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over. †† Per 1,000 live and still births.
‡ Provisional. ††† Per 1,000 married population. ‡‡ Figures given include stillbirths of 24–27 weeks gestation (see Notes to tables).
Notes: 1. See notes opposite.
2. From 1972 births for England and Wales are excluded if the mother was usually resident outside England and Wales, but included in the totals for Great Britain and the United Kingdom.
3. From 1972 deaths for England and for Wales separately exclude deaths to persons usually resident outside England and Wales, but these deaths are included in the totals for England and Wales combined,
Great Britain and the United Kingdom.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
61
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 9
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Live births: age of mother
England and Wales
Year and quarter
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
Age of mother at birth
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Total live births (thousands)
1961
1964(max)†
1966
1971
1976
1977(min)†
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996‡‡
Year ending Sept 1997‡
1996 March
June
Sept‡‡
Dec‡‡
1997 March‡
June ‡
Sept‡
811.3
876.0
849.8
783.2
584.3
569.3
634.5
699.2
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
649.6
157.3
158.1
169.9
164.2
158.1
162.9
164.4
59.8
76.7
86.7
82.6
57.9
54.5
56.6
52.4
45.1
42.0
41.9
44.7
46.5
10.6
10.4
11.6
12.0
11.5
11.3
11.8
249.8
276.1
285.8
285.7
182.2
174.5
194.5
173.4
152.0
140.2
130.7
125.7
121.6
30.8
29.8
33.1
32.1
29.8
29.5
30.2
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
Mean
age at
birth
TPFR†
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
176.9
187.3
174.0
153.2
118.7
117.5
129.1
119.4
114.1
112.1
108.6
106.9
103.1
107.7
97.3
77.1
57.2
58.6
68.6
86.7
87.0
88.7
87.3
88.6
48.1
49.8
45.3
32.8
18.6
18.2
21.7
32.1
34.1
35.8
36.2
37.2
15.0
13.7
12.5
8.7
4.8
4.4
4.9
5.3
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.2
27.6
27.2
26.8
26.2
26.4
26.5
26.8
27.7
28.1
28.4
28.5
28.6
2.77
2.93
2.75
2.37
1.71
1.66
1.80
1.82
1.76
1.75
1.72
1.73
7
7
7
8
8
8
7
28.6
28.7
28.6
28.6
28.7
28.9
28.8
1.69
1.70
1.74
1.78
1.76
1.75
1.72
Age-specific fertility rates*
248.5
270.7
253.7
247.2
220.7
207.9
215.8
248.7
236.0
229.1
217.4
211.1
206.4
51.4
51.7
55.4
52.6
50.4
51.5
51.9
152.3
153.5
136.4
109.6
90.8
100.8
126.6
161.3
171.1
179.6
181.2
186.4
188.5
44.7
46.3
48.8
46.6
45.6
48.3
48.0
77.5
75.4
67.0
45.2
26.1
25.5
34.2
53.6
58.8
63.1
65.5
69.5
73.8
16.9
17.0
17.9
17.7
17.7
19.2
19.2
23.3
23.6
20.1
12.7
6.5
6.0
6.9
9.8
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.1
12.8
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.3
89.2
92.9
90.5
83.5
60.4
58.1
61.3
63.6
62.6
61.9
60.4
60.5
37.3
42.5
47.7
50.6
32.2
29.4
28.1
33.0
31.0
29.0
28.5
29.8
59.3
59.4
60.7
61.6
60.8
60.6
59.2
29
28
30
32
31
29
30
172.6
181.6
176.0
152.9
109.3
103.7
105.3
89.3
82.7
79.4
76.8
77.5
75
74
79
81
78
76
76
105
105
108
108
107
106
104
86
89
89
89
90
91
88
37
37
37
38
38
40
39
*
†
Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly rates and total period fertility rates (TPFRs) are seasonally adjusted.
TPFR is the average number of children which would be born if women experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the period in question throughout their childbearing lifespan. During the post Second World War
period the TPFR reached a maximum in 1964 and a minimum in 1977.
‡
Provisional.
‡‡ Provisional-rates only.
Note: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
Table 10
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
England and Wales
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
Age of mother at birth
25–29
30–34
35 and
over
Mean
All
age
ages
(years)
Thousands
1993
1994
1995
1996
Year ending Sept 1997‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June ‡
Sept‡
*
†
‡
48.5
67.1
65.7
53.8
81.0
211.3
216.5
215.5
219.9
232.7
239.8
55.0
54.8
61.6
61.3
58.5
58.8
61.3
O f f i c e
f o r
25–29
30–34
35 and
over
11.9
20.6
21.6
19.8
26.4
43.4
38.2
35.9
36.3
39.3
41.2
9.3
9.2
10.3
10.6
10.2
10.0
10.5
15.5
22.0
22.0
16.6
28.8
77.8
75.0
71.0
69.7
71.1
71.0
17.0
16.6
18.8
18.7
17.4
17.1
17.8
9.3
11.9
11.5
9.7
14.3
52.4
57.5
58.5
59.6
62.3
64.0
14.7
14.6
16.6
16.4
15.6
15.5
16.5
6.2
6.9
6.2
4.7
7.9
25.7
31.4
34.0
37.0
40.5
42.2
9.5
9.7
10.8
10.5
10.2
10.6
10.9
5.6
5.8
4.3
2.9
3.6
11.9
14.4
16.1
17.4
19.4
21.4
4.5
4.7
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.6
5.6
25.40
24.33
23.78
23.34
23.47
24.84
25.46
25.80
25.98
26.08
26.17
26.04
26.15
26.11
26.02
26.13
26.29
26.24
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
6.0
7.9
8.4
9.2
12.8
30.2
32.2
32.4
33.9
35.8
36.9
35.0
34.6
36.3
37.3
37.0
36.1
37.3
Joint
Sole
Same
Different
address† address†
Percentage of total births
Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole).
Usual address of parents.
Provisional.
62
20–24
19.9
23.7
26.1
34.2
46.7
82.9
84.8
85.5
86.6
88.0
88.6
87.7
88.2
88.1
87.9
88.7
89.1
88.8
6.2
7.7
7.7
9.1
14.8
44.9
49.4
50.6
53.3
56.5
58.4
55.2
55.6
57.0
58.2
58.4
58.0
58.9
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
3.7
4.7
4.7
4.4
6.6
21.1
24.4
25.5
27.4
29.5
31.0
28.7
28.2
29.9
31.2
31.0
30.1
31.8
4.1
5.0
5.7
5.2
6.2
16.0
18.4
18.9
20.4
21.7
22.4
21.2
20.9
22.1
22.6
22.4
22.0
22.7
5.5
6.6
7.4
8.9
8.7
18.8
20.7
21.8
22.6
23.9
24.7
22.8
23.8
24.4
24.3
24.6
24.9
24.9
..
..
38.3
45.5
51.0
58.2
54.6
19.8
54.8
22.0
57.5
19.8
58.1
20.1
58.1
19.9
59.0
19.4
58.1
19.8
58.1
19.9
58.2
20.1
58.2
19.9
58.4
19.5
59.6
19.5
59.9
18.9





1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
Under
20
Registration*





Year and quarter
..
61.7
54.5
49.0
41.8
25.6
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
21.5
22.2
22.0
21.7
21.8
22.0
21.0
21.2
8 98 1 | | S uSm
p m
r i enr g 1 19 99 97 8
Table 11
P Po op pu ul la at ti i oo nn TTr re enndd ss
Live births within marriage: age of mother, marital status, and birth order*
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
Live births within marriage
thousands
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
Births within marriage to remarried women
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
762.8
782.8
717.5
530.5
553.5
487.9
47.9
66.2
61.1
38.1
30.1
8.9
234.3
263.8
263.7
165.6
165.7
95.6
293.2
241.9
235.7
211.0
201.5
196.3
146.1
129.5
103.4
86.1
118.7
135.5
73.5
62.9
42.1
23.9
31.5
43.8
21.7
18.4
11.6
5.8
6.0
7.7
27.69
26.99
26.41
26.69
27.28
28.89
16.3
16.8
19.4
26.7
38.8
39.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.8
1.2
2.1
2.9
3.6
1.6
3.4
4.7
6.6
10.5
13.4
10.8
5.0
5.2
6.1
8.7
14.1
15.8
4.8
3.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
9.1
2.4
1.8
1.1
1.0
1.4
2.1
33.93
32.61
33.16
30.48
30.98
32.49
1993
1994
1995
1996
Year ending Sept 1997‡
456.9
449.2
428.2
416.8
409.7
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.3
77.0
69.2
67.0
54.7
50.6
178.5
170.6
157.0
148.8
142.3
139.7
145.6
144.2
145.9
146.3
46.9
49.7
51.1
53.3
56.0
8.0
8.0
8.4
8.9
9.2
29.35
29.61
29.86
30.09
30.28
35.9
35.2
33.3
32.6
31.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
8.7
8.1
7.2
6.4
6.1
14.8
14.9
14.0
13.9
13.3
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.5
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.4
32.89
33.07
33.26
33.52
33.67
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
102.3
103.3
108.3
102.9
99.5
104.1
103.1
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
13.8
13.2
14.2
13.4
12.4
12.4
12.4
36.7
37.1
38.8
36.1
34.8
36.0
35.4
35.2
36.6
38.0
36.1
35.4
37.7
37.1
13.1
13.1
13.7
13.5
13.5
14.5
14.5
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
30.06
30.11
30.07
30.14
30.25
30.36
30.35
8.1
7.9
8.4
8.1
7.8
8.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
33.51
33.47
33.48
33.62
33.63
33.71
33.73
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
280.5
287.4
283.6
217.2
224.3
193.7
40.3
52.2
49.5
30.2
23.6
6.7
129.2
138.1
135.8
85.4
89.5
51.2
73.7
67.7
74.8
77.2
77.2
84.5
26.4
20.7
17.2
19.7
27.8
40.2
8.9
7.1
5.1
3.9
5.4
9.7
1.9
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.7
1.3
24.66
24.02
23.99
24.87
25.37
27.48
232.7
246.3
240.8
203.6
205.7
178.3
6.9
12.6
10.7
7.4
6.1
2.0
74.0
88.5
93.6
62.5
59.0
32.8
88.2
92.2
94.1
91.8
82.7
73.9
44.7
38.0
31.8
34.7
47.7
53.0
15.8
12.6
8.9
6.2
9.1
14.7
3.0
2.5
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.9
27.44
26.64
26.28
26.87
27.46
28.95
1993
1994
1995
1996
Year ending Sept 1997‡
178.1
176.0
168.1
163.0
159.3
5.2
4.7
4.3
4.2
4.2
40.4
36.4
32.3
28.9
26.7
77.6
75.7
71.0
67.2
64.4
42.7
46.1
46.6
47.7
48.3
10.8
11.6
12.1
13.1
13.7
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.0
28.01
28.32
28.56
28.81
28.98
169.4
166.3
158.1
153.8
151.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.0
26.8
23.9
20.6
18.5
17.1
66.7
62.7
57.3
53.4
50.9
55.9
58.6
58.5
59.1
59.7
16.3
17.6
18.1
19.2
20.4
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.7
29.44
29.74
30.02
30.28
30.47
39.7
39.1
42.7
41.5
38.3
39.3
40.2
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.1
7.1
7.0
7.7
7.2
6.4
6.5
6.6
16.3
16.4
17.7
16.8
15.5
15.9
16.2
11.6
11.3
12.5
12.4
11.7
12.0
12.3
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.6
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
28.84
28.76
28.77
28.87
28.97
29.06
29.04
38.0
39.5
39.6
36.8
36.9
39.9
38.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
4.8
4.5
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.1
13.4
13.7
13.9
12.3
12.6
13.4
12.6
14.2
15.4
15.2
14.3
14.3
16.0
15.2
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
5.5
5.3
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
30.17
30.31
30.26
30.36
30.40
30.56
30.56
First live births
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Second live births
Third live births
Fourth and higher order live births†
124.8
129.7
111.7
71.0
82.4
76.1
0.6
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.2
23.3
27.8
26.6
14.4
14.1
9.4
45.0
49.0
43.6
29.8
29.5
26.8
34.5
33.2
27.9
19.5
28.7
27.5
17.2
14.9
10.4
5.8
8.7
10.5
4.3
3.6
2.2
1.1
1.0
1.8
29.78
29.19
28.74
28.89
29.59
30.44
124.8
119.4
81.4
38.8
41.1
39.8
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.9
9.4
7.6
3.3
3.1
2.3
32.3
33.0
23.2
12.2
12.0
11.1
40.5
37.7
26.5
12.1
14.5
14.8
31.7
28.3
17.6
8.0
8.3
8.9
12.4
10.8
6.5
3.1
3.2
2.7
31.56
31.10
30.72
30.70
31.14
31.62
1993
1994
1995
1996
Year ending Sept 1997‡
71.8
69.7
66.7
65.3
64.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
7.9
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.5
24.0
22.6
20.5
19.6
18.8
26.9
26.8
26.1
26.0
25.5
11.0
11.4
11.7
12.0
12.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
30.75
30.95
31.16
31.34
31.50
37.5
37.1
35.3
34.7
34.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
10.1
9.7
9.0
8.6
8.3
14.1
14.1
13.1
13.1
12.7
8.9
9.1
9.2
9.0
9.2
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.7
31.84
32.03
32.09
32.28
32.41
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
15.9
16.3
17.0
16.0
15.7
16.4
16.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
4.8
4.8
5.1
4.9
4.6
4.7
4.6
6.2
6.7
6.8
6.2
6.2
6.6
6.5
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.3
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
31.30
31.38
31.34
31.32
31.47
31.56
31.63
8.7
8.4
9.0
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
32.09
32.27
32.37
32.39
32.33
32.44
32.49
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
*
†
‡
Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
Mean age at birth refers to fourth births only.
Provisional.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
63
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 12
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Conceptions by age of woman at conception
England and Wales
Year and quarter
(a) numbers (thousands)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996‡
1994
March
June
Sept
Dec
1995
March
June
Sept
Dec
1996
March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
All ages
Under 16
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
871.5
853.6
828.0
819.0
801.6
790.3
816.0
8.6
7.8
7.3
7.2
7.8
8.0
8.8
115.1
103.3
93.0
86.7
85.0
86.2
94.4
245.2
234.1
215.0
202.9
189.6
180.4
179.1
283.8
281.1
274.8
271.4
261.5
249.9
251.9
160.2
166.3
172.9
181.9
185.9
191.2
200.5
55.4
56.9
60.1
63.5
66.7
69.2
75.9
11.8
11.9
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.3
14.2
196.5
197.6
202.0
205.4
193.2
194.1
195.2
207.8
206.3
200.7
202.3
206.6
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
21.3
21.3
20.7
21.8
20.9
21.3
21.0
23.0
24.1
23.7
22.5
24.1
47.8
47.6
46.2
48.0
45.2
44.7
43.3
47.2
47.2
44.4
42.9
44.7
63.9
64.2
66.8
66.6
61.4
61.1
62.0
65.4
63.8
61.9
63.0
63.2
44.4
45.0
48.2
48.3
45.8
46.4
48.4
50.6
49.4
48.9
51.0
51.2
16.1
16.3
16.9
17.5
16.6
17.2
17.2
18.2
18.4
18.3
19.3
19.8
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
124.4
120.6
113.5
110.4
107.3
105.9
110.4
137.8
135.0
131.7
131.2
128.0
124.8
127.5
89.1
89.4
90.4
92.5
91.8
92.1
95.3
33.2
34.0
35.4
36.8
37.8
38.2
40.6
6.4
6.4
7.0
7.4
7.7
8.0
8.5
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age-group)
79.2
10.1
1990
1991
77.7
9.3
1992
76.3
8.5
1993
1994
1995
1996‡
1994
March
June
Sept
Dec
1995
March
June
Sept
Dec
1996
March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
residents
Age of woman at conception
76.1
74.7
73.7
76.0
8.1
8.3
8.5
9.4
69.1
65.1
61.7
59.6
58.6
58.7
63.0
74.2
73.8
74.7
75.9
73.0
72.6
72.2
76.8
77.3
75.2
74.9
76.5
8.0
8.2
8.0
9.1
8.2
8.7
8.7
8.6
9.9
9.8
9.1
9.0
59.4
58.8
56.5
59.3
58.0
58.2
56.5
61.7
65.2
63.7
59.6
63.3
108.1
107.5
104.3
109.2
106.0
104.9
101.5
112.0
114.9
109.3
105.8
111.4
126.2
125.8
130.0
130.3
123.5
122.1
123.1
130.2
129.4
125.8
127.3
128.6
89.8
89.5
94.1
93.8
90.3
89.9
92.5
96.2
94.9
93.7
96.4
96.9
37.2
37.2
37.8
38.9
37.6
38.2
37.5
39.5
40.1
39.7
41.0
41.7
7.5
7.8
7.7
7.8
8.0
8.1
7.8
8.0
8.1
8.6
8.6
8.5
19.2
19.5
19.7
20.8
50.6
51.0
51.0
52.1
52.8
49.8
51.5
35.6
34.4
34.5
34.9
35.3
35.2
36.8
22.2
22.1
22.4
22.9
23.5
24.3
25.9
13.5
13.4
13.9
13.8
14.3
14.8
15.6
13.8
13.7
13.7
13.4
13.4
13.4
14.0
23.3
22.0
21.8
21.2
20.8
20.3
20.9
43.3
41.8
40.6
39.4
40.0
37.2
36.7
19.7
20.0
18.8
19.3
19.8
20.2
19.3
19.6
21.0
21.3
19.8
21.1
53.4
53.1
54.1
50.9
48.7
48.8
52.1
49.3
49.4
51.6
52.9
52.5
35.2
35.7
35.3
35.2
35.3
35.4
35.1
34.8
36.7
37.2
35.8
37.7
23.9
23.8
22.8
23.5
23.8
24.7
24.1
24.5
25.6
26.6
24.8
26.4
14.4
14.9
13.7
14.2
14.9
15.4
14.4
14.5
15.8
16.0
14.9
15.9
13.6
13.9
12.9
13.4
13.8
13.8
12.9
13.4
14.3
14.3
13.2
14.2
21.0
21.7
20.6
20.0
20.6
20.8
19.6
20.3
21.5
21.6
20.0
20.7
41.5
40.5
38.9
39.0
38.0
37.4
38.1
35.3
36.1
37.2
36.4
37.1
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
19.9
1990
1991
19.3
1992
19.3
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994
March
June
Sept
Dec
1995
March
June
Sept
Dec
1996
March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
‡
Notes: 1.
2.
Provisional
Conceptions are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
Rates for women of all ages, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15-44, 15-19 and 40-44 respectively.
Some rates for September 1995 onwards have been amended. These rates use mid-1996 population estimates which were previously unavailable.
Numbers of conceptions in the June 1996 quarter have been amended.
Quarterly rates have changed from those in previous volumes due to a more precise method of calculation.
3.
64
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 98 1 | | S uSmp m
r i e nr g 1 91 9 9
7 8
Table 13
Year
Expectation of life (in years) at birth and selected age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Males
At
birth
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Scotland
1961
1971
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
50
60
70
80
64.9
65.3
66.9
67.8
68.9
69.1
69.3
69.5
69.7
50.4
50.9
52.3
53.2
54.2
54.4
54.6
54.8
55.0
40.9
41.3
42.7
43.6
44.7
44.8
45.1
45.2
45.5
22.6
23.0
24.1
24.9
26.0
26.1
26.4
26.5
26.8
15.0
15.3
16.3
16.8
17.7
17.8
18.0
18.1
18.4
9.3
9.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.1
11.3
11.3
11.5
5.2
5.5
5.7
6.0
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.6
1961
1971
50.6
51.1
52.5
53.4
54.5
54.6
54.9
55.0
55.2
41.1
41.5
42.9
43.8
44.9
45.0
45.3
45.4
45.7
22.7
23.1
24.3
25.0
26.2
26.3
26.5
26.7
26.9
15.1
15.4
16.4
16.9
17.9
17.9
18.2
18.3
18.5
9.3
9.5
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.2
11.4
11.4
11.6
5.2
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.6
1961
1971
71.0
72.1
73.4
73.6
74.0
74.1
74.4
65.1
65.6
67.1
68.0
69.1
69.3
69.6
69.7
70.0
66.3
67.3
69.1
70.2
71.4
71.5
71.7
71.9
72.1
63.6
64.0
65.2
66.0
67.1
67.2
67.3
67.5
67.7
49.1
49.5
50.6
51.4
52.5
52.5
52.7
52.8
53.1
39.6
40.1
41.1
41.9
43.0
43.1
43.2
43.4
43.6
21.6
22.0
22.9
23.5
24.6
24.6
24.8
24.9
25.2
14.4
14.6
15.4
15.8
16.6
16.6
16.8
16.9
17.2
9.0
9.1
9.5
9.9
10.4
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.8
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.7
6.1
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.2
1961
1971
65.0
64.6
65.3
66.4
67.9
68.2
68.4
68.6
68.9
50.5
50.1
50.8
51.8
53.3
53.6
53.8
54.0
54.3
41.0
40.7
41.4
42.4
43.8
44.1
44.4
44.5
44.8
22.8
22.6
23.1
23.9
25.2
25.5
25.6
25.8
26.1
15.3
15.0
15.5
16.0
17.0
17.2
17.4
17.5
17.7
9.5
9.4
9.6
10.0
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9
11.0
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.7
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
1961
1971
70.8
71.9
73.2
73.4
73.7
73.9
74.1
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
69.1
70.6
72.3
72.5
72.8
72.9
73.3
Females
At
birth
30
Northern Ireland
67.6
1961
1971
67.6
1981
1986
At age
20
England and Wales
68.1
1961
1971
69.0
1981
1986
Year
5
United Kingdom
67.9
1961
1971
68.8
1981
1986
PP
o op pu ul la at ti ioonn TTr re en nd ds s
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
At age
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
73.8
75.0
76.8
77.7
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.2
79.4
70.4
71.4
72.7
73.5
74.4
74.4
74.6
74.7
74.9
55.7
56.7
57.9
58.7
59.6
59.6
59.8
59.9
60.1
46.0
47.0
48.1
48.9
49.7
49.8
50.0
50.0
50.2
27.4
28.3
29.2
29.8
30.7
30.7
30.9
31.0
31.2
19.0
19.8
20.8
21.2
21.9
21.9
22.1
22.2
22.4
11.7
12.5
13.3
13.8
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.5
14.6
6.3
6.9
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.5
74.0
75.2
77.0
77.9
79.0
79.1
79.3
79.4
79.6
70.7
71.6
72.9
73.6
74.6
74.6
74.8
74.9
75.1
56.0
56.9
58.1
58.9
59.8
59.8
60.0
60.1
60.3
46.2
47.1
48.3
49.0
49.9
50.0
50.2
50.3
50.4
27.6
28.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
30.9
31.1
31.2
31.3
19.1
20.0
20.9
21.4
22.1
22.1
22.3
22.3
22.5
11.8
12.6
13.4
13.9
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.6
14.7
6.4
7.0
7.5
7.9
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.6
72.0
73.7
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.1
77.3
77.4
77.6
68.9
70.1
71.2
71.9
72.6
72.6
72.8
72.9
73.2
54.2
55.4
56.4
57.1
57.8
57.8
58.0
58.1
58.3
44.5
45.6
46.7
47.3
48.1
48.1
48.2
48.3
48.6
26.1
27.2
27.9
28.4
29.1
29.1
29.3
29.4
29.6
17.9
19.0
19.7
20.1
20.6
20.6
20.7
20.8
21.0
10.9
11.9
12.7
13.0
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.5
13.7
5.9
6.7
7.2
7.5
7.8
7.7
7.8
7.8
7.9
72.4
73.7
75.4
76.7
78.1
78.3
78.4
78.4
78.7
69.5
70.4
71.4
72.5
73.7
73.9
74.0
74.0
74.2
54.8
55.6
56.7
57.7
58.9
59.1
59.2
59.2
59.4
45.1
45.9
47.0
47.9
49.1
49.3
49.4
49.4
49.6
26.5
27.3
28.1
28.9
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.3
30.5
18.1
18.9
19.9
20.4
21.3
21.5
21.6
21.6
21.7
11.0
11.7
12.6
13.0
13.8
13.9
14.0
14.0
14.0
6.0
6.5
7.1
7.2
7.8
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.9
Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 1991 Census. All figures are based on a three-year period, see Notes on Tables for further information.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
65
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 14
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Deaths: age and sex
England and Wales
Year and quarter
All ages
Age-group
Under 1* 1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
288.4
300.1
289.0
287.9
277.6
279.6
267.6
272.7
269.8
266.0
7.97
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
2.41
2.37
2.29
2.29
2.16
1.23
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.51
0.43
0.40
0.44
0.42
0.92
0.68
0.45
0.32
0.34
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.24
0.27
0.69
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.33
1.54
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
0.91
0.84
0.89
0.91
0.97
1.77
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
1.60
1.55
1.56
1.41
1.46
3.05
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
3.81
4.07
4.10
4.03
3.90
6.68
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
5.78
5.77
5.86
5.86
5.71
21.0
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
13.4
12.9
13.4
13.5
13.6
55.7
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
33.3
31.3
30.8
30.1
29.1
89.8
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
78.9
76.3
74.5
71.5
68.2
71.9
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
93.8
88.2
91.6
91.2
90.6
26.1
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
44.5
43.2
46.6
48.1
49.3
278.9
298.5
288.9
293.3
292.5
299.2
285.6
293.2
293.2
291.7
5.75
3.46
2.90
2.59
2.19
1.84
1.75
1.68
1.70
1.66
0.98
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.44
0.37
0.36
0.34
0.33
0.30
0.57
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.42
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.25
0.20
0.23
0.19
0.21
0.63
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.39
0.36
0.39
0.43
0.43
0.79
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
0.58
0.54
0.52
0.52
0.50
1.84
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
1.80
1.77
1.84
1.88
1.71
4.53
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
3.63
3.67
3.64
3.67
3.73
13.3
12.8
10.5
8.76
8.37
8.61
8.69
8.99
8.84
9.05
30.8
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
20.4
19.0
18.8
18.3
18.0
64.0
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
55.2
53.9
52.7
50.5
48.5
95.0
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
100.9
94.2
96.4
97.3
96.0
60.4
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
105.0
101.0
107.5
109.3
111.4
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age-group)
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
12.1
12.5
12.0
11.8
11.2
11.1
10.6
10.7
10.6
10.4
19.8
16.2
12.6
11.0
8.3
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.5
0.76
0.65
0.53
0.44
0.40
0.36
0.31
0.28
0.32
0.30
0.44
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.15
0.37
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.20
0.90
0.88
0.82
0.71
0.69
0.59
0.55
0.57
0.57
0.61
0.93
0.96
0.83
0.82
0.86
0.83
0.83
0.87
0.82
0.86
0.97
0.92
0.89
0.87
0.94
0.91
0.96
0.96
0.94
0.92
2.31
2.09
1.83
1.67
1.76
1.67
1.66
1.66
1.63
1.58
7.07
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.62
4.24
3.99
4.05
4.01
4.01
20.1
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.8
13.3
12.4
12.2
12.0
11.6
50.5
50.3
45.6
42.9
38.5
37.9
36.2
35.9
34.7
33.1
113.0
116.4
105.2
101.1
93.6
93.3
89.5
88.8
85.5
85.0
231.8
243.2
226.5
214.8
197.1
202.3
188.6
194.3
193.2
198.0
11.9
10.0
9.5
10.8
11.8
10.1
9.3
10.4
7.6
6.6
6.3
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.1
6.3
0.34
0.30
0.25
0.38
0.31
0.29
0.26
0.35
0.13
0.11
0.13
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.19
0.19
0.15
0.21
0.17
0.20
0.20
0.63
0.49
0.55
0.63
0.68
0.63
0.49
0.64
0.83
0.78
0.79
0.89
0.82
0.88
0.83
0.90
0.98
0.85
0.95
0.99
0.93
0.90
0.89
0.95
1.68
1.61
1.55
1.67
1.58
1.56
1.50
1.70
4.12
3.96
3.84
4.11
4.16
3.99
3.82
4.09
13.1
11.7
11.2
12.0
12.2
11.5
10.9
11.7
38.5
33.6
31.6
35.2
36.3
33.1
30.4
32.8
97.6
80.4
76.1
87.8
99.6
81.2
74.8
84.6
230.7
177.7
166.3
198.3
241.8
183.4
167.8
199.9
11.0
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.3
11.4
10.9
11.1
11.1
11.0
15.1
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
0.63
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.28
0.27
0.25
0.25
0.23
0.29
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.24
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.12
0.13
0.39
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.25
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.42
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.31
0.60
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.45
0.45
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.42
1.59
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.06
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.04
1.05
4.32
4.30
3.80
3.23
2.91
2.73
2.68
2.72
2.62
2.68
10.0
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.1
7.9
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.0
26.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
22.0
22.0
21.3
21.3
20.8
20.0
73.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.6
59.4
56.9
56.6
56.1
55.4
185.7
196.6
178.2
171.0
163.8
156.5
146.6
151.8
151.7
154.6
12.8
10.3
9.9
11.4
13.1
10.4
9.7
10.9
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.3
4.9
5.3
0.26
0.26
0.19
0.30
0.28
0.23
0.15
0.25
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.13
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.12
0.09
0.13
0.14
0.11
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.30
0.26
0.27
0.31
0.32
0.28
0.25
0.30
0.32
0.31
0.30
0.34
0.25
0.35
0.31
0.33
0.47
0.46
0.45
0.46
0.44
0.41
0.38
0.44
1.08
1.03
1.00
1.03
1.09
1.07
1.03
1.03
2.71
2.46
2.58
2.71
2.74
2.70
2.61
2.67
7.6
6.9
6.7
7.2
7.7
6.8
6.6
7.0
23.4
19.7
19.0
20.9
22.5
19.4
18.1
19.9
64.6
52.4
49.9
57.7
65.4
53.0
48.9
54.3
182.2
138.9
129.7
156.4
196.2
141.1
129.8
152.1
*
Rates per 1,000 live births. Some minor amendments have been made to the data from 1994 onwards as an incorrect denominator was previously used.
Provisional.
.. Data not available
Note: Deaths for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994 figures which represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year.
‡
66
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 98 1 | | S uSmp m
r i e nr g 1 91 9 9
7 8
Table 15
Year and
quarter
PP
o op pu ul la at ti ioonn TTr re en nd ds s
Deaths: subnational
Regional offices *
Northern and
Yorkshire
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)
11.8
1991
1993
11.8
Trent
Anglia and
Oxford
North
Thames
South
Thames
South and
West
West
Midlands
North
West
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
11.2
11.3
11.3
11.1
11.2
11.4
10.8
11.0
10.9
10.9
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
12.8
10.6
10.1
11.6
12.2
10.5
9.9
11.1
10.9
9.1
8.5
9.9
10.8
8.9
8.4
9.8
12.7
10.3
9.7
11.0
12.9
10.6
10.2
11.4
12.2
9.9
9.5
10.9
13.1
10.8
10.4
12.0
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
12.6
10.8
9.8
11.1
12.6
10.4
9.6
11.1
11.1
9.0
8.4
9.4
11.0
8.8
8.3
9.1
13.0
10.2
9.5
10.5
13.4
10.9
9.9
11.2
12.2
10.1
9.4
10.5
12.9
11.0
10.3
11.6
8.0
7.0
7.2
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.8
5.3
5.6
5.2
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
6.5
6.2
6.1
5.6
5.6
6.7
4.9
4.9
5.9
6.5
6.4
5.2
5.8
6.1
6.6
5.9
5.8
6.3
6.4
5.6
5.0
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.1
6.0
5.2
8.7
7.0
7.2
7.1
6.8
6.3
7.2
7.1
6.8
7.5
6.5
6.2
6.6
6.4
8.2
6.5
5.2
5.6
4.7
4.7
5.1
4.6
4.2
3.7
3.9
4.6
4.6
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.4
3.7
3.2
4.3
3.9
3.4
4.2
4.4
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.4
3.5
3.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
3.7
3.9
4.1
3.9
4.2
4.0
4.2
3.6
3.6
3.1
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.5
4.7
3.6
5.9
4.8
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.6
5.6
5.2
4.7
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.2
4.1
5.2
4.4
3.4
3.5
7.2
8.5
7.9
7.2
7.7
6.8
9.0
7.6
7.5
8.0
9.2
9.1
9.0
9.0
10.5
8.5
8.0
9.2
7.4
8.9
8.1
8.6
8.6
8.0
9.1
9.2
8.0
7.0
7.8
7.8
7.7
7.5
7.4
7.0
8.0
7.4
9.9
9.9
10.6
10.2
10.2
9.1
10.7
10.9
10.1
7.8
8.9
9.2
8.6
8.7
9.2
9.6
7.8
8.3
Infant deaths (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
8.5
1991
1993
6.9
1994
6.8
1995
6.6
1996
6.4
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.1
5.8
6.0
6.7
Neonatal deaths (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
4.9
1991
1993
4.3
1994
4.4
1995
4.5
1996
4.1
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
4.4
3.7
4.4
4.0
Perinatal deaths (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)
8.7
8.6
1991†
1993
9.4
8.6
1994
9.1
9.1
1995
9.4
9.5
1996
8.6
8.7
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
*
†
‡
1.
8.9
8.8
9.1
7.6
8.1
8.7
9.4
8.5
9.7
9.8
9.4
9.6
9.6
9.5
10.0
9.9
9.5
9.7
9.5
9.3
11.3
11.4
10.9
11.1
10.9
10.8
11.5
11.6
11.1
11.5
11.3
11.3
10.8
11.0
10.5
10.9
10.6
10.5
12.0
12.1
11.5
11.6
11.6
11.4
As constituted on 1 April 1996
Figures given are based on stillbirths of 28 completed weeks gestation or more (see Notes to tables).
Provisional
Death figures represent the number of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994 figures which represent the number of deaths which occurred in each year.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
67
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 16
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Deaths: selected causes (International Classification)* and sex
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
All
deaths
Cancer
Number
(thousands) Rate†
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Diabetes
mellitus
disease
Hypertensive
disease
Stomach
Intestines
Pancreas
Lung
Breast
Uterus
Prostate
(151)
(152–3)
(157)
(162)
(174–5)
(179–82)
(185)
(250)
(401–5)
280.8
288.6
288.4
300.1
289.0
277.6
279.6
267.6
272.7
269.8
266.0
1,256
1,239
1,207
1,246
1,196
1,121
1,109
1,057
1,072
1,056
1,041
..
..
30.3
28.7
26.1
20.7
18.2
18.4
16.9
16.6
15.9
17.0
16.9
17.6
19.0
18.8
21.9
21.2
20.7
20.8
20.0
20.4
9.3
10.6
11.5
11.8
12.4
11.9
11.3
11.0
10.9
11.1
10.9
86.9
96.9
105.2
110.3
108.8
94.2
86.0
83.9
80.2
77.8
74.7
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
16.4
16.8
16.9
19.1
21.3
34.6
34.1
34.5
34.8
34.4
33.4
5.9
6.5
7.9
8.5
8.3
14.4
11.2
10.9
11.2
11.1
10.8
31.7
21.5
17.5
14.1
10.2
6.1
5.4
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.3
74.3
65.5
60.7
72.2
75.6
63.8
61.2
69.3
74.3
64.3
60.2
67.2
1,185
1,033
947
1,126
1,189
1,003
953
1,078
1,179
1,009
934
1,044
16.6
17.8
16.6
16.5
16.5
16.7
16.8
16.5
15.7
15.7
15.9
16.2
20.5
20.3
20.6
21.7
20.7
18.8
19.9
20.8
20.9
20.7
20.1
19.8
10.9
10.8
11.2
10.5
10.5
11.3
11.2
11.3
10.8
11.1
10.2
11.6
82.0
80.9
76.2
81.7
79.3
76.9
77.4
77.4
74.5
75.4
72.8
76.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
36.9
33.8
32.2
36.3
34.2
33.3
33.6
36.3
32.1
33.3
33.6
34.3
12.5
11.2
9.8
11.4
12.4
10.7
10.1
11.3
12.5
10.3
9.8
10.7
5.7
4.8
3.9
5.4
6.0
4.9
4.4
4.8
5.9
5.6
4.5
5.0
271.0
275.0
278.9
298.5
288.9
292.5
299.2
285.6
293.2
293.2
291.7
1,136
1,115
1,104
1,176
1,134
1,127
1,140
1,085
1,114
1,108
1,103
..
..
20.5
19.5
17.1
12.7
11.3
11.2
10.5
9.5
9.7
23.2
22.3
23.9
25.3
23.7
24.0
22.3
22.4
21.6
21.3
20.5
8.0
9.0
9.7
10.9
10.8
11.8
11.5
11.5
11.6
11.5
11.3
13.9
17.8
22.2
27.4
33.1
42.0
41.7
42.0
42.0
42.0
41.2
38.9
39.7
44.3
46.4
49.1
53.2
49.6
48.9
47.4
46.2
45.3
16.7
16.0
15.3
14.6
13.9
12.2
10.6
10.0
10.1
10.0
9.5
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
10.6
11.3
13.0
11.9
10.3
17.5
13.1
12.2
12.7
12.0
11.9
40.5
27.6
20.3
16.7
11.6
7.1
6.5
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.6
79.8
69.8
65.4
78.2
84.1
68.0
65.6
75.5
85.7
68.9
64.6
72.5
1,227
1,061
984
1,175
1,278
1,035
986
1,136
1,315
1,044
968
1,088
10.5
10.0
10.8
10.8
9.3
9.5
9.6
9.8
9.3
9.8
9.6
10.1
21.5
20.7
21.9
22.4
21.3
21.3
21.0
21.5
19.4
21.8
20.1
20.7
11.8
11.7
11.5
11.4
11.5
11.3
11.9
11.3
11.6
10.9
11.4
11.5
42.0
41.0
40.5
44.5
42.2
39.5
42.5
43.5
40.2
40.5
42.5
41.6
48.4
46.7
45.5
49.0
48.2
44.9
45.2
46.7
44.2
45.6
45.4
46.0
9.8
10.4
10.5
9.7
10.2
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.1
10.3
9.7
8.9
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
13.8
12.0
11.5
13.4
13.2
11.8
10.9
12.2
12.7
11.1
11.4
12.2
7.7
5.7
5.2
6.0
7.6
6.0
5.2
7.4
7.8
6.2
5.7
6.8
*
The Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases, 1975, came into operation in England and Wales on 1 January 1979. ONS has produced a publication containing details of the effect of this Revision
(Mortality statistics: comparison of 8th and 9th revision of the International Classification of Diseases, 1978 (sample), Series DH1 no.10).
†
Per 100,000 population.
‡
Provisional.
Notes: 1. Between 1 January 1984 and 31 December 1992, ONS applied the International Classification of Diseases Selection Rule 3 in the coding of deaths where terminal events and other ‘modes of dying’, such as cardiac
arrest, cardiac failure, certain thromboembolic disorders, and unspecified pneumonia and bronchopneumonia, were stated by the certifier to be the underlying cause of death and other major pathology appeared on
the certificate. In these cases Rule 3 allows the terminal event to be considered a direct sequel to the major pathology and that primary condition was selected as the underlying cause of death. Prior to 1984 and
from 1993 onwards, such certificates are coded to the terminal event. Further details may be found in the annual volumes Mortality statistics: cause 1984, Series DH2 no. 11, and Mortality statistics: cause 1993
(revised) and 1994, Series DH2 no 21.
2. On 1 January 1986 a new certificate for deaths within the first 28 days of life was introduced. It is not possible to assign one underlying cause of death from this certificate. The ‘cause’ figures for 1986 onwards
therefore exclude deaths at ages under 28 days.
3. Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994, which represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year.
68
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 98 1 | | S uSmp m
r i e nr g 1 91 9 9
7 8
PP
o op pu ul la at ti ioonn TTr re en nd ds s
Table 16
continued
Rates per 100,000
Ischaemic
heart
disease
Cerebrovascular
Pneumonia
Influenza
Bronchitis and
allied
conditions
Chronic
liver
disease
and cirrhosis
Congenital
anomalies
Road
vehicle
accidents**
Accidental
falls**
Suicide
(410–14)
(430–8)
(480–6)
(487)
(490–6)
(571)
(740–59)
(E810–29)
(E880–8)
(E950–9)
297.3
323.1
347.5
371.1
368.8
329.9
315.3
292.2
285.8
276.9
263.3
..
..
129.9
119.3
110.1
104.6
89.7
86.2
86.9
87.2
85.0
63.4
68.9
72.7
98.8
90.3
39.6
82.7
75.5
83.8
83.8
87.5
15.5
7.0
1.3
10.5
0.9
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.5
105.2
106.8
91.6
85.3
72.8
73.6
69.6
61.3
64.5
60.8
61.1
3.3
3.1
3.4
4.3
4.8
7.1
6.8
7.5
8.5
8.8
9.8
12.2
11.1
10.2
7.7
6.9
3.5
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.6
21.5
22.8
20.0
17.4
..
12.8
9.7
9.2
8.9
9.1
9.6
8.2
7.9
7.6
6.8
..
5.4
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.7
6.0
13.3
11.9
9.5
9.7
11.4
12.2
11.3
11.2
11.0
10.4
10.0
327.7
279.9
241.6
294.7
313.8
267.8
244.3
282.0
300.2
260.4
229.9
263.6
98.4
83.6
75.7
90.0
99.8
85.9
75.4
87.6
96.0
82.7
75.6
85.8
101.3
73.1
62.4
98.7
115.0
70.9
61.7
87.7
132.3
73.3
62.1
83.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
78.8
58.2
48.4
72.8
82.2
54.3
45.9
61.0
88.8
53.3
45.7
57.2
8.9
8.0
8.4
8.6
8.8
8.5
8.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.3
10.7
2.8
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.3
2.7
3.0
2.3
2.5
2.5
8.9
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.4
8.5
8.5
9.8
9.7
9.6
8.8
10.4
5.4
5.1
4.7
5.8
6.0
5.2
5.1
6.3
6.3
6.2
5.7
5.9
11.5
10.8
10.3
11.3
10.7
9.8
10.2
10.9
9.9
10.0
9.3
10.9
210.1
222.3
237.9
266.6
259.4
264.1
254.7
235.5
228.6
222.7
211.0
..
..
193.5
184.1
169.0
165.1
146.9
141.2
142.3
142.7
136.8
63.7
78.1
88.0
125.6
126.5
72.2
128.7
113.9
125.9
125.1
132.0
15.0
8.2
1.5
16.4
1.6
0.7
1.1
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.9
39.0
38.8
31.8
32.3
28.7
41.8
43.4
40.1
43.7
43.6
44.7
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.4
4.1
5.2
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.7
6.3
10.8
9.2
8.3
6.4
5.4
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.4
8.0
8.8
9.1
7.6
..
5.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
14.4
14.3
14.7
13.0
..
7.9
8.4
7.7
8.3
8.3
9.3
9.0
8.7
6.7
5.9
6.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
260.0
222.5
198.1
234.3
257.7
210.1
195.9
227.5
245.0
207.9
185.1
206.7
157.2
138.5
126.5
147.3
162.4
137.3
126.5
144.8
159.0
132.7
120.0
135.9
155.6
109.3
91.3
147.9
178.4
103.3
88.1
130.9
217.2
103.1
87.7
121.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
1.6
1.6
0.1
0.0
0.4
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
52.5
38.2
31.5
52.8
61.0
37.2
30.4
45.7
67.0
36.1
32.0
44.2
5.6
5.5
5.3
5.7
6.3
5.6
5.5
5.6
6.3
6.4
6.1
6.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.8
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.0
2.3
4.1
4.0
3.4
3.5
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.1
9.4
8.0
7.1
8.5
9.1
8.5
7.5
8.2
11.2
9.0
7.9
8.9
3.0
2.6
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.6
3.2
2.5
3.3
**
Year and
quarter
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997‡
1995 Mar
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Industrial action by registration officers in 1981 meant that information normally supplied by coroners about violent deaths is not available, and therefore no comparable figures can be compiled for these categories for 1981.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
69
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 17
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Abortions: marital status, age, and gestation/weeks (residents only)
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
All ages
All women
All
women
Single
women
1993
1994
1995
1996
94.6
101.9
128.6
167.4
157.8
156.0
153.1
166.4
44.3
50.9
70.0
110.9
103.8
102.2
101.5
113.1
Year ending
June 1997‡
165.6
113.1
40.7
38.4
39.2
37.6
40.3
37.4
38.4
37.0
43.0
42.7
41.2
39.5
42.5
42.4
26.7
25.2
25.6
24.7
26.7
24.7
25.5
24.6
29.2
29.1
28.0
26.9
29.2
28.0
9.14
8.46
8.73
8.16
8.65
8.12
8.14
7.81
8.76
8.58
8.45
8.08
8.47
8.53
13.8
14.8
17.2
23.6
22.2
20.5
23.2
22.7
21.8
20.3
20.4
19.7
21.7
20.0
20.3
19.6
23.6
23.5
22.4
21.5
23.8
23.4
5.3
5.3
5.9
5.5
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.5
5.1
5.2
4.8
5.2
4.9
4.8
4.6
5.3
5.1
5.0
4.8
5.5
5.4
Numbers (thousands)
1971
1976
1981
1991
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Rates (per thousand women 14–49)
8.4
1971
1976
8.9
1981
10.6
1991
13.1
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
12.3
12.1
12.7
12.9
12.8
12.0
12.1
11.6
12.7
11.7
11.9
11.4
13.4
13.4
12.7
12.2
13.4
13.2
Married
women
Gestation (weeks)
Other*
Under
16
16–19
20–34
41.5
40.3
42.4
37.8
35.4
34.5
32.7
33.9
8.7
10.7
16.1
18.7
18.7
19.3
18.9
19.4
2.30
3.43
3.53
3.16
3.08
3.22
3.24
3.60
18.2
24.0
31.4
31.1
25.8
25.1
24.7
28.5
56.0
57.5
74.9
114.7
109.7
108.1
105.7
112.9
33.5
19.0
3.48
28.7
111.5
4.90
4.72
4.94
4.76
4.98
4.59
4.80
4.52
5.07
5.04
4.75
4.54
4.82
4.84
28.7
23.6
18.3
15.1
14.0
13.9
14.8
13.9
14.3
13.6
14.1
13.6
14.5
13.2
13.7
12.9
14.7
14.6
13.6
13.0
12.0
12.3
0.80
0.77
0.81
0.85
0.86
0.76
0.80
0.82
0.88
0.91
0.92
0.89
0.84
0.83
3.5
4.4
4.5
5.6
5.3
5.2
5.8
5.8
5.2
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.7
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.3
6.69
6.14
6.27
6.02
6.45
5.98
6.26
6.04
7.33
7.27
7.06
6.89
7.47
7.30
13.9
16.9
19.4
24.0
22.0
21.9
22.3
24.9
23.7
21.5
21.7
20.9
22.8
20.9
21.7
20.9
25.7
25.5
24.5
23.9
26.4
25.6
35–44
45 and
over
Age not
stated
Under
13
15.9
14.7
17.6
17.9
18.8
19.1
19.1
21.0
0.45
0.48
0.56
0.41
0.49
0.44
0.45
0.42
1.80
1.79
0.56
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
70.4
82.1
108.5
147.5
140.4
138.9
136.7
147.5
21.4
0.45
0.00
147.0
35.9
34.1
35.0
33.9
35.7
33.5
34.2
33.3
38.1
37.7
36.4
35.4
37.3
37.9
28.4
26.6
27.1
26.0
27.9
25.9
26.4
25.4
29.6
29.1
27.7
26.5
28.7
28.6
4.71
4.79
4.97
4.63
4.97
4.68
4.87
4.54
5.13
5.43
5.35
5.11
5.40
5.53
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.10
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.4
11.2
14.0
19.6
18.7
18.7
19.1
19.3
19.7
18.3
18.4
17.7
19.4
17.8
17.9
17.3
20.4
20.0
18.9
18.1
19.9
19.7
5.6
5.3
5.9
5.1
5.5
5.5
5.9
6.1
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.3
5.8
5.4
5.6
5.2
6.0
6.3
6.2
5.9
6.3
6.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
*
Other women includes divorced, widowed, separated, and not stated.
±
The rates differ from those previously published due to a revision of the denominators which remain provisional and may be subject to further revision.
‡
Provisional
Note: In calculating rates, the population of separated women has been estimated using Labour Force Survey data.
70
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
13–19
20 and
over
Not
stated
20.6
15.3
17.4
17.8
15.6
15.4
14.6
16.7
0.85
0.98
1.72
2.07
1.84
1.85
1.81
2.14
2.69
3.56
1.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.5
2.09
0.00
4.38
3.76
3.89
3.35
4.16
3.52
3.73
3.23
4.38
4.45
4.21
3.65
4.68
4.00
0.47
0.50
0.48
0.40
0.42
0.43
0.50
0.46
0.53
0.57
0.55
0.50
0.52
0.53
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
8 98 1 | | S uSmp m
r i e nr g 1 91 9 9
7 8
Table 18
Year and
quarter
PP
o op pu ul la at ti ioonn TTr re en nd ds s
International migration: age and sex
United Kingdom
All ages
thousands
0-14
15-24
25-44
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Males
Males
Females
1993
1994
1995
1996
200
191
153
250
267
213
253
245
258
103
100
83
120
122
101
126
130
122
97
91
71
130
144
112
127
115
136
33
32
30
45
48
34
36
28
30
17
16
16
22
20
17
22
20
13
17
17
14
23
28
17
14
9
18
65
64
48
79
83
73
76
88
91
28
32
24
34
36
28
30
40
36
37
32
24
45
47
44
47
48
55
81
77
60
101
109
87
117
107
111
48
43
34
49
54
44
60
57
59
33
34
26
51
55
43
57
50
53
Year ending
March 1997‡
254
122
133
31
15
16
89
36
53
108
55
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
52
56
98
52
26
24
49
24
26
32
49
28
8
3
12
8
3
1
6
2
5
1
6
5
13
15
45
17
5
4
22
6
9
12
24
11
26
30
36
20
1997 March‡
48
25
23
9
6
4
11
4
7
1993
1994
1995
1996
240
210
233
213
239
216
191
192
212
124
118
133
107
120
113
92
102
104
116
93
100
106
119
103
98
90
108
51
40
49
37
39
32
26
29
32
26
20
25
17
17
20
15
14
13
24
21
24
20
22
11
11
15
20
64
52
51
47
59
49
48
54
47
28
26
29
19
31
20
19
24
16
Year ending
March 1997‡
204
103
101
31
13
18
47
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
45
45
76
47
22
25
36
21
22
20
39
27
7
9
12
4
4
5
3
1
3
4
9
3
1997 March‡
36
21
15
6
4
1993
1994
1995
1996
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 28
– 2
+ 62
+ 54
+ 46
– 22
– 18
– 50
+ 13
+ 2
– 12
+ 34
+ 28
+ 18
– 19
– 1
– 29
+ 24
+ 26
+ 10
+ 28
+ 26
+ 27
– 17
– 8
– 19
+ 8
+ 8
+ 2
+ 10
—
– 2
Year ending
March 1997‡
+ 50
+ 19
+ 31
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 7
+ 11
+ 22
+ 5
+ 3
– 1
+ 12
+ 4
1997 March‡
+ 12
+ 4
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Males
Females
21
18
15
25
27
20
24
22
25
10
9
9
16
12
12
15
14
15
11
9
7
10
15
8
9
8
11
53
26
16
10
17
13
18
11
9
16
18
9
5
8
5
8
2
5
3
5
3
3
2
3
22
13
10
5
3
2
36
25
22
28
29
30
29
31
31
99
97
108
98
113
106
95
85
115
57
59
64
55
58
56
49
52
64
42
38
44
43
55
51
46
33
51
27
21
25
32
28
28
23
24
18
12
12
14
17
15
17
10
13
11
15
9
11
15
13
11
13
11
6
15
32
109
63
46
18
12
5
6
9
21
11
3
3
6
4
3
6
16
7
26
24
35
29
13
16
21
14
14
9
14
15
5
2
8
3
3
1
6
2
2
1
1
1
2
5
2
4
20
12
9
5
4
1
– 10
– 4
– 9
+ 5
+ 3
– 3
+ 6
+ 6
—
– 8
– 4
+ 10
+ 3
+ 5
+ 6
+ 3
– 6
– 2
+ 1
+ 12
– 2
+ 32
+ 24
+ 23
+ 29
+ 34
+ 44
—
+ 6
– 5
+ 15
+ 6
+ 8
+ 11
+ 16
+ 20
+ 1
+ 7
+ 2
+ 18
+ 18
+ 15
+ 17
+ 17
+ 24
– 18
– 20
– 48
+ 3
– 3
– 20
+ 22
+ 22
– 3
– 10
– 16
– 31
– 5
– 4
– 11
+ 11
+ 5
– 5
– 9
– 4
– 18
+ 8
+ 1
– 8
+ 11
+ 17
+ 1
– 6
– 3
– 10
– 7
– 1
– 9
+ 2
– 1
+ 8
–
–
–
–
–
–
+
+
+
2
3
5
1
3
6
5
1
3
– 4
—
– 4
– 6
+ 2
– 3
– 4
– 2
+ 4
+ 1
+ 2
– 2
+ 42
+ 21
+ 21
– 1
– 8
+ 7
+ 8
+ 4
+ 5
+ 4
+ 12
+ 10
+ 2
+ 1
– 7
—
+ 4
–
–
+
+
+
–
–
+
2
3
3
2
+ 7
+ 6
+ 24
+ 6
+ 2
+ 1
+ 16
+ 2
+
+
+
+
–
+
+
–
+
–
–
–
–
+
+
–
5
8
4
6
—
+ 6
– 3
+ 5
–
+
–
+
1
5
3
3
+ 1
+ 2
—
+ 2
+ 8
+ 4
+ 2
+ 2
+ 6
+ 2
+ 4
+ 1
—
– 1
+ 1
1
4
3
2
Females
45 and over
6
6
8
4
Persons
1
5
1
9
+ 2
4
2
3
3
+ 1
Persons
‡ Provisional
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the
country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
71
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 19
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
International migration: country of last or next residence
United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All
countries
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
European
Union*
thousands
Commonwealth countries
Other foreign countries
Australia,
New
Zealand,
Canada
South
Africa
India†,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka
Pakistan†
Caribbean
Other
USA
Middle**
East
Other**
1993
1994
1995
1996
200
191
153
250
267
213
253
245
258
21
................
32
25
69
72
53
76
71
79
52
40
20
30
47
36
34
39
38
8
9
3
18
8
9
8
4
11
24
................
15
18
16
12
13
10
11
11
:
12
9
10
12
7
6
5
9
5
4
3
5
3
2
1
2
3
36
36
26
29
39
25
36
37
27
22
16
17
26
25
23
30
27
33
:
:
11
15
8
9
11
11
12
31
27
21
32
41
36
43
37
36
Year ending
March 1997‡
254
81
39
15
10
8
3
24
31
11
32
52
56
98
52
18
11
27
24
6
16
11
4
2
4
5
1
2
4
3
2
2
2
3
2
—
2
—
—
5
3
14
5
6
5
17
5
2
3
4
2
9
7
14
6
48
19
8
6
1
1
—
2
4
2
5
240
210
233
213
................
239
216
191
192
212
31
38
32
58
72
65
52
55
71
99
63
79
50
53
48
38
44
49
21
21
23
2
................
6
3
4
5
5
8
4
2
4
5
4
2
2
4
:
2
1
2
3
2
3
2
1
8
3
3
2
2
3
3
2
1
23
21
23
19
27
22
21
19
27
17
21
25
34
32
33
24
28
23
:
:
23
16
13
9
11
9
6
204
65
47
5
3
1
1
27
22
7
27
45
45
76
47
14
16
29
12
11
9
11
17
1
1
—
3
1
1
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4
6
14
3
5
5
8
5
2
2
2
1
7
4
11
5
36
8
9
1
1
—
—
4
3
2
7
1993
1994
1995
1996
–40
–19
–79
+37
+28
– 2
+62
+54
+46
–10
................
– 6
– 8
+ 1
—
–12
+24
+16
+ 9
–46
–23
–58
–21
– 6
–12
– 5
– 4
–11
–13
–12
–20
+16
+ 2
+ 6
+ 4
– 1
+ 7
+16
................
+12
+16
+12
+ 8
+ 9
+ 8
+ 9
+ 7
:
+10
+ 8
+ 8
+ 8
+ 5
+ 3
+ 4
+ 8
– 3
—
+ 1
+ 3
+ 2
– 1
– 3
– 1
+ 2
+14
+15
+ 3
+10
+13
+ 3
+15
+18
—
+ 6
– 4
– 8
– 8
– 7
–10
+ 6
—
+ 9
:
:
–12
—
– 5
– 1
—
+ 3
+ 5
Year ending
March 1997‡
+50
+16
– 8
+10
+ 7
+ 7
+ 2
– 3
+ 9
+ 5
+ 9
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 7
+11
+22
+ 5
+ 4
– 5
– 2
–12
– 5
+ 7
—
–13
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+ 2
—
—
+ 1
– 3
—
+ 2
+ 1
– 1
+ 9
—
+ 1
+ 2
+ 2
—
+
+
+
+
1997 March‡
+12
+11
–2
—
– 2
—
—
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
Year ending
March 1997‡
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2
3
4
2
+ 5
1
3
2
2
—
2
1
3
2
+ 1
*
34
37
21
................
26
27
27
33
27
26
– 3
–10
................
– 1
+ 7
+14
+ 9
+10
+10
+ 9
2
3
3
1
– 2
From 1995 onwards figures for the European Union include estimates for Austria, Finland and Sweden. The figures for the years 1976–1994 show the European Community as it is was constituted before 1st January
1995 (including the former German Democratic Republic). For 1971 the EC figures are for the original six countries only.
†
Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka in 1971.
** Middle East is included in the Other category in 1971 and 1976.
‡
Provisional.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the
country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
72
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 98 1 | | S uSmp m
r i e nr g 1 91 9 9
7 8
Table 20
Year and
quarter
International migration: citizenship
United Kingdom
thousands
Citizenship (number in thousands)
All citizenship
British
Non-British
European
Union*
Commonwealth+†
All
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
PP
o op pu ul la at ti ioonn TTr re en nd ds s
Other
foreign*+
Old+
British
citizens as
percentage of
all citizens
New†
1993
1994
1995
1996
200
191
153
250
267
213
253
245
258
92
87
60
120
117
92
118
91
98
108
104
93
130
150
122
135
154
160
..
18
11
35
31
24
29
41
52
53
58
47
50
67
51
................
52
63
60
17
16
11
16
25
21
................
20
28
28
36
42
36
34
42
29
32
35
31
54
................
29
36
46
52
48
................
55
50
48
46
45
39
48
44
43
47
37
38
Year ending
March 1997‡
254
99
156
53
58
29
29
45
39
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
52
56
98
52
22
24
33
20
30
32
65
32
7
9
23
13
12
16
21
11
6
11
8
4
6
5
13
7
11
7
21
9
42
42
33
38
1997 March‡
48
22
26
8
10
7
3
8
46
1993
1994
1995
1996
240
210
233
213
239
216
191
192
212
171
137
164
132
137
127
108
118
137
69
73
69
81
102
89
82
74
75
..
18
15
10
32
21
22
20
24
29
29
29
31
34
31
................
29
27
29
13
15
13
19
17
15
12
16
16
16
14
16
13
18
15
16
11
13
40
................
27
25
40
36
37
32
27
23
71
65
71
62
57
59
57
62
65
Year ending
March 1997‡
204
130
74
22
30
17
13
23
64
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
45
45
76
47
32
29
48
29
13
16
27
18
6
7
6
5
4
5
11
8
2
4
3
6
2
2
8
2
3
4
10
6
70
64
64
61
1997 March‡
36
24
12
4
6
4
2
3
66
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 28
– 2
+ 62
+ 54
+ 46
– 79
– 51
–104
– 12
– 20
– 35
+ 10
– 27
– 39
+ 39
+ 31
+ 25
+ 49
+ 47
+ 33
+ 53
+ 81
+ 85
..
—
–4
+25
– 1
+ 3
+ 7
+21
+28
+24
+29
+18
+19
+32
+20
+23
+36
+31
................
+ 4
+ 2
– 2
– 3
+ 8
+ 6
+ 7
+11
+13
................
Year ending
March 1997‡
+ 50
– 31
+ 82
+31
+28
+13
+15
+22
:
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 7
+ 11
+ 22
+ 5
–
–
–
–
9
5
16
9
+ 17
+ 16
+ 38
+ 14
+ 2
+ 1
+18
+ 8
+ 7
+11
+10
+ 3
+
+
+
–
+
+
+
+
4
4
5
5
+ 8
+ 4
+11
+ 3
:
:
:
:
1997 March‡
+ 12
– 2
+ 14
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 1
+ 5
:
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Balance
3
7
4
2
+20
+28
+20
+21
+24
+14
+16
+25
+18
+14
+ 2
+11
+ 5
+16
................
+10
+23
+23
+25
................
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
*
From 1995 onwards figures for European Union citizenship includes estimates for Austrian, Finnish and Swedish citizenship. The figures for the years 1976–1994 show the European Community as it was constituted
before 1st January 1995 (including citizens of the former German Democratic Republic). For 1971 citizens of the EC are included in the Other foreign category.
+
Figures for South African citizenship are included in Old Commonwealth and excluded from the Other foreign category with effect from 1994.
†
For all years Pakistani citizens have been included with the New Commonwealth and excluded from the Other foreign category.
‡
Provisional.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the
country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
73
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 21
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Internal migration: recorded movements between England, Wales, Scotland,
Northern Ireland, and standard regions of England
Year and
quarter
England
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Wales
Scotland
Northern Standard regions of England
Ireland
North
Yorkshire East
and
MidHumber- lands
side
thousands
East
Anglia
South East
South
West
Total
Greater
London
Remainder
West
Midlands
North
West
1993
1994
1995
1996
133.9
105.4
94.3
115.6
95.8
98.6
103.4
108.1
111.1
58.2
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
51.5
52.0
54.7
55.3
52.0
50.4
46.9
43.9
55.8
54.1
51.7
48.5
47.0
12.1
9.7
7.2
8.8
12.5
10.7
10.9
14.1
11.4
59.5
48.5
39.3
46.7
49.8
47.1
46.3
46.9
48.4
88.8
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
87.8
87.6
90.8
90.8
94.8
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
93.3
96.4
101.3
102.1
66.8
60.6
53.7
61.3
58.1
57.2
60.5
61.6
64.2
269.2
222.2
220.8
269.7
223.1
224.3
237.4
250.5
253.8
..
..
155.2
182.8
148.8
150.5
160.4
170.7
168.0
..
..
253.8
309.5
249.9
259.0
271.7
276.9
288.7
137.9
123.8
108.4
148.8
120.7
121.1
127.7
131.6
135.5
91.5
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
83.0
84.8
90.0
90.6
106.6
87.5
74.6
83.5
90.1
92.0
94.3
98.4
99.3
Year ending
March 1997‡
111.2
56.3
47.0
11.3
48.6
91.6
103.0
64.4
253.1
167.6
290.1
139.9
91.1
99.3
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.0
23.8
36.9
27.4
10.7
11.4
19.4
13.9
12.2
10.3
13.2
11.3
3.5
2.5
2.9
2.7
9.3
10.1
17.5
11.5
16.5
17.0
35.8
21.5
19.4
20.2
37.9
24.4
12.5
13.6
22.9
15.2
52.1
54.8
84.6
62.3
37.1
35.8
52.6
42.5
59.1
63.9
93.3
72.4
27.2
29.5
47.6
34.3
17.9
18.5
31.1
23.1
20.0
20.5
34.1
24.7
1997 March‡
23.1
11.6
12.2
2.3
9.5
17.3
20.3
12.7
51.4
36.7
60.5
28.6
18.4
20.1
1993
1994
1995
1996
114.7
104.8
92.8
100.7
112.2
108.2
106.3
107.9
105.3
49.0
43.9
41.9
49.8
47.4
48.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
71.0
54.5
48.2
57.9
46.7
46.9
49.0
52.0
54.5
21.6
14.2
10.1
15.1
9.3
11.5
12.2
12.3
11.8
64.0
48.6
47.2
53.7
49.5
50.3
52.2
54.2
53.5
97.1
78.5
73.4
90.5
85.4
87.5
91.9
97.6
98.2
83.5
77.2
71.8
84.8
81.4
83.2
86.2
91.9
94.3
47.6
44.3
42.9
51.0
47.7
48.7
50.7
52.9
54.0
285.5
249.3
211.1
273.9
264.7
252.2
252.9
257.5
262.0
..
..
187.1
232.4
202.1
203.4
206.9
207.6
213.4
..
..
212.0
264.2
238.2
234.0
241.2
247.0
251.5
99.5
94.7
88.1
102.5
98.9
100.6
103.9
108.0
109.8
100.5
89.5
78.5
94.8
87.9
92.2
95.1
98.1
101.0
118.3
98.8
94.1
111.4
99.9
100.8
104.9
110.8
109.0
Year ending
March 1997‡
106.1
53.4
54.1
12.1
53.2
98.5
95.1
54.2
263.5
215.2
252.9
110.0
101.8
109.7
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
25.0
23.0
33.1
26.2
10.9
11.5
17.8
13.2
11.5
11.6
16.6
12.9
2.0
1.9
4.9
3.0
11.0
11.6
18.2
12.8
19.8
21.2
33.7
23.7
18.7
20.1
32.5
23.1
10.9
11.0
19.0
13.2
52.4
52.9
92.6
64.9
45.4
46.3
67.7
54.5
51.1
51.4
86.3
63.0
22.3
22.3
38.1
27.4
19.9
21.0
35.8
24.5
21.9
23.3
37.8
26.2
1997 March‡
24.7
10.9
11.2
2.4
10.6
20.0
19.5
11.0
53.5
47.0
52.3
22.4
20.6
22.5
1993
1994
1995
1996
+ 19.3
+ 0.6
+ 1.5
+ 14.9
– 16.4
– 9.7
– 2.9
+ 0.2
+ 5.8
+ 9.2
+ 8.1
+ 2.7
+ 5.4
+ 4.0
+ 3.2
+ 1.5
+ 1.6
+ 2.0
– 19.0
– 4.1
– 1.3
– 14.1
+ 9.2
+ 7.2
+ 2.6
– 3.5
– 7.5
– 9.5
– 4.5
– 2.9
– 6.3
+ 9.2
– 0.8
– 1.2
+ 1.8
– 0.4
– 4.5
– 0.1
– 7.9
– 7.1
+ 0.3
– 3.2
– 6.0
– 7.3
– 5.1
– 8.3 + 11.4
– 0.3 + 6.8
– 5.1 + 4.8
– 11.9 + 17.1
– 0.4 + 8.1
+ 0.3 + 10.1
– 4.4 + 10.2
– 6.8 + 9.4
– 7.4 + 7.8
+ 19.1
+ 16.3
+ 10.8
+ 10.3
+ 10.4
+ 8.5
+ 9.8
+ 8.8
+ 10.2
– 16.3
– 27.0
+ 9.7
– 4.2
– 41.7
– 27.8
– 15.5
– 7.0
– 8.2
..
..
– 32.0
– 49.6
– 53.3
– 52.9
– 45.9
– 36.9
– 45.4
..
..
+ 41.8
+ 45.3
+ 11.7
+ 25.0
+ 30.4
+ 29.9
+ 37.2
+ 38.4
+ 29.1
+ 20.2
+ 46.4
+ 21.8
+ 20.5
+ 23.8
+ 23.6
+ 28.7
– 9.0
– 13.8
– 11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
– 9.2
– 10.3
– 8.1
– 10.4
+ 11.7
– 11.4
– 19.5
– 27.9
– 9.8
– 8.8
– 10.5
– 12.4
– 9.7
Year ending
March 1997‡
+ 5.1
+ 2.9
– 7.1
– 0.8
– 4.6
– 6.9
+ 10.2
– 10.4
– 47.6
+ 37.2
+ 29.9
– 10.7
– 10.4
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
–
+
+
+
1.9
0.8
3.8
1.2
– 0.2
– 0.1
+ 1.6
+ 0.7
+
–
–
–
0.6
1.3
3.4
1.6
+ 1.5
+ 0.6
– 2.0
– 0.3
– 1.7
– 1.5
– 0.7
– 1.3
–
–
+
–
+
+
+
+
–
+
–
–
0.3
1.9
8.1
2.6
– 8.3
– 10.5
– 15.1
– 12.0
+ 8.0
+ 12.4
+ 7.0
+ 9.4
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
1997 March‡
– 1.6
+ 0.7
+ 1.0
– 0.1
– 1.2
– 2.7
– 2.1
– 10.2
+ 8.2
+ 6.2
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
+ 7.9
3.3 + 0.7
4.1 + 0.2
2.1 + 5.5
2.2 + 1.3
+ 0.9
+ 1.8
‡ Provisional
Note: Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See notes to tables for affects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
74
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
1.6
2.6
3.9
2.0
5.0
7.2
9.5
6.9
2.0
2.6
4.7
1.4
– 2.2
1.9
2.8
3.7
1.6
– 2.4
8 98 1 | | S uSmp m
r i e nr g 1 91 9 9
7 8
Table 22
Year and
quarter
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
*
†
‡
PP
o op pu ul la at ti ioonn TTr re en nd ds s
First marriages*: age and sex
England and Wales
All ages
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Per cent
aged
under 20
Mean
age
(years)
Median
age
(years)
Number
(thousands)
Rate†
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
253.0
222.8
224.2
213.5
206.1
198.5
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
44.6
37.0
36.7
35.5
33.1
31.8
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
6.0
3.4
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
63.5
42.5
39.4
35.2
30.5
26.5
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
104.3
76.5
75.1
73.5
68.7
65.2
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
73.7
64.5
62.0
62.4
56.6
59.6
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
30.9
31.5
32.0
32.9
30.3
32.7
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
3.8
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
26.3
27.5
27.9
28.2
28.5
28.9
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
25.1
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.9
23.3
60.2
89.0
33.5
21.5
57.4
88.9
30.4
22.9
56.1
84.0
30.4
15.2
38.7
56.6
21.3
13.7
36.3
55.6
19.0
14.2
34.8
51.5
18.7
1.7
2.3
2.7
2.0
1.6‡
1.9‡
2.6‡
1.8‡
1.4
1.8
2.4
1.5
14.8
35.1
53.3
18.6
12.9
31.1
48.6
15.9
13.0
28.3
41.4
14.6
28.5
82.3
122.5
40.6
24.8
75.6
119.0
35.7
25.5
71.5
109.0
34.1
25.4
66.6
94.5
39.0
23.7
63.7
96.7
34.9
25.2
62.0
92.5
35.8
16.5
34.0
45.8
24.7
15.7
34.7
47.6
22.8
16.5
34.8
47.6
23.1
2.1
1.2
0.9
1.9
2.2
1.0
0.9
1.8
1.9
1.0
0.9
1.6
28.7
28.5
28.3
29.0
29.1
28.9
28.7
29.5
29.4
29.2
29.0
29.7
27.6
27.5
27.4
27.9
28.0
27.9
27.8
28.3
28.3
28.2
28.2
28.7
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
256.8
224.8
225.6
215.0
206.3
198.5
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
55.7
46.9
46.8
45.5
41.7
40.1
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
24.1
14.0
12.5
10.7
9.5
9.0
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
102.4
74.0
71.0
66.0
56.4
50.2
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
108.8
89.4
90.4
92.2
84.7
83.4
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
67.1
62.8
63.3
64.5
58.3
62.2
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
28.6
30.4
30.2
31.5
28.7
31.3
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.0
13.9
7.9
6.6
5.7
6.2
5.1
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
24.1
25.5
25.9
26.2
26.5
26.9
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
23.1
24.6
25.0
25.3
25.7
26.0
23.1
60.6
89.7
33.0
21.0
57.7
89.8
30.0
22.5
56.3
84.1
29.9
18.9
49.1
71.9
26.5
16.8
45.8
70.4
23.5
17.5
43.8
64.7
23.0
7.0
10.0
13.1
8.0
6.2
9.1
12.9
7.4
6.1
8.2
11.2
6.5
24.1
66.8
102.2
31.8
21.0
59.5
94.4
26.6
21.1
54.7
81.4
24.7
34.3
102.6
149.9
51.3
30.2
95.1
150.0
46.1
31.9
91.7
140.2
45.0
28.6
66.8
95.4
42.0
25.2
65.1
95.7
38.2
26.3
65.1
94.5
39.2
17.0
32.0
40.3
25.3
15.3
32.8
42.9
22.7
16.6
33.0
41.9
23.3
8.5
4.6
4.2
6.9
8.3
4.5
4.1
7.0
7.9
4.2
3.9
6.4
26.7
26.5
26.3
27.0
27.0
27.0
26.7
27.5
27.3
27.2
27.0
27.7
25.6
25.7
25.5
26.0
25.9
26.0
25.9
26.4
26.3
26.3
26.3
26.8
See also Table 8.
Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
Provisional.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
75
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 23
T r e n d s
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Remarriages*: age, sex, and previous marital status
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
Remarriages of divorced persons
All ages
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
*
†
**
‡
9 1
Remarriages of
widowed persons
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population
at ages
Mean
age
(years)
Median
age
(years)
Number
(thousands)
Rate**
Number
Rate†
(thousands)
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
83.4
74.9
78.5
77.0
76.6
77.0
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
90.8
61.6
61.0
59.1
55.8
56.1
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
138.6
79.9
89.8
81.2
100.8
96.9
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
157.8
108.4
105.5
96.1
100.1
89.9
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
141.0
99.5
99.6
94.3
92.5
92.0
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
105.8
72.4
72.2
70.3
67.3
68.8
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
38.5
34.3
37.6
32.4
31.5
30.2
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
39.1
40.3
40.6
40.8
41.1
41.3
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
37.7
39.0
39.2
39.4
39.6
39.8
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
11.6
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.4
7.8
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
16.7
13.1
13.1
12.6
11.9
11.0
12.0
21.2
26.8
16.7
11.3
21.7
28.3
15.6
12.2
22.4
27.8
15.7
35.5
62.0
77.5
48.3
31.0
58.8
75.9
41.8
31.8
58.4
71.7
40.5
74.4
110.3
124.8
93.4
86.1
109.5
165.8
101.0
95.6
112.0
159.2
84.0
61.1
113.2
144.9
80.6
56.6
107.6
147.2
70.8
65.0
112.0
141.8
67.9
54.6
101.4
139.1
74.3
48.0
98.3
137.1
65.4
50.8
99.3
127.3
61.3
41.3
75.4
95.1
57.0
35.0
70.0
91.3
49.4
36.9
69.7
88.2
48.1
29.9
31.4
33.6
29.5
28.8
29.9
32.2
28.2
28.2
28.5
29.7
25.3
41.7
41.1
40.4
41.7
42.0
41.3
40.8
41.9
42.0
41.7
41.1
42.5
40.3
39.7
38.8
40.4
40.6
39.8
39.1
40.4
40.4
40.2
39.6
41.2
1.5
2.4
2.6
1.9
1.3
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.4
2.2
2.4
1.7
8.6
13.6
14.6
10.7
7.2
12.7
14.1
9.2
7.7
12.2
13.1
9.3
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
80.0
73.4
77.5
75.9
76.9
76.9
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
68.7
49.0
49.5
48.0
45.4
45.4
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
190.6
113.0
123.2
106.4
130.5
111.9
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
156.2
118.5
118.8
109.7
106.8
97.7
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.7
90.1
93.1
89.3
85.0
86.2
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
75.5
55.3
56.5
56.3
53.1
54.9
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
51.2
47.4
46.4
44.9
44.4
42.8
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
36.0
37.1
37.4
37.7
37.9
38.4
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
34.7
35.6
35.9
36.2
36.3
36.6
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
11.2
8.5
8.4
8.3
7.9
7.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
3.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
12.3
21.1
26.2
17.2
11.7
21.6
27.4
16.2
12.8
22.2
27.7
16.3
29.4
49.9
61.3
40.2
27.1
49.4
62.0
36.6
28.3
49.1
60.6
35.7
91.6
132.0
172.7
125.0
94.9
141.0
171.6
116.1
119.1
156.4
191.3
120.5
72.6
115.5
148.4
90.1
66.6
114.7
148.8
81.3
71.7
114.8
148.3
76.6
53.6
93.3
119.9
72.7
51.5
96.7
124.4
68.1
52.9
96.9
123.5
67.3
33.6
59.1
71.4
48.0
31.1
58.7
74.5
43.8
33.2
59.5
74.0
44.6
44.7
43.7
45.9
42.8
43.5
42.6
43.6
41.1
41.4
40.6
42.0
38.5
37.9
38.0
37.5
38.2
38.4
38.4
38.3
38.9
38.5
38.7
38.3
39.0
36.3
36.5
35.9
36.8
36.5
36.7
36.4
37.0
37.0
37.3
36.8
37.6
1.3
2.2
2.5
1.9
1.3
2.1
2.5
1.6
1.2
2.2
2.3
1.6
1.8
3.0
3.4
2.6
1.8
2.9
3.4
2.2
1.7
3.1
3.2
2.2
See also Table 8.
Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
Provisional.
76
Per cent
aged
under 35
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 98 1 | | S uSmp m
r i e nr g 1 91 9 9
7 8
Table 24
Year and quarter
Divorces: age and sex
England and Wales
Number (thousands)
All divorces
Petitions
filed*
Decrees made absolute
All
divorces
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993‡
1994‡
1995‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993‡
1994‡
1995‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
PP
o op pu ul la at ti ioonn TTr re en nd ds s
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
1st
marriage
2nd or
later
marriage
Per cent
aged
under 35
16 and
over
16–24
25–29
(years)
30–34
(years)
35–44
45
and over
Mean age Median
at divorce age at
divorce
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
49.7
..
..
..
..
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
165.0
158.2
155.5
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
128.0
129.8
133.5
127.5
125.1
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
25.9
29.0
31.5
30.7
30.4
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.6
14.0
13.4
13.2
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
30.9
25.9
23.5
20.0
17.1
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
31.2
32.9
31.6
28.5
26.6
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
25.1
28.5
29.3
28.3
27.9
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
18.0
20.1
21.6
20.7
20.4
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
5.2
5.6
6.1
6.1
6.2
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
45.6
42.7
40.8
39.7
38.7
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
37.8
38.6
39.0
39.3
39.6
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
36.2
37.0
37.3
37.6
37.9
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
40.6
39.2
39.3
36.4
40.3
39.1
40.1
34.8
32.7
31.5
31.6
29.2
32.3
31.2
32.1
27.9
7.9
7.6
7.7
7.2
8.0
7.9
8.0
6.9
14.0
13.3
13.2
12.3
14.0
13.6
13.8
12.0
18.6
17.7
16.4
15.8
23.9
22.8
21.6
19.3
28.1
27.3
26.0
25.1
29.2
28.4
29.2
24.5
29.6
27.9
28.4
25.7
30.3
28.5
29.2
24.9
21.8
20.7
20.5
18.7
22.1
21.5
22.0
19.1
6.5
6.2
6.3
5.9
6.5
6.5
6.4
5.7
38.7
38.8
38.5
38.7
38.0
37.3
37.6
36.9
39.5
39.5
39.6
39.6
37.2
37.3
37.3
37.4
37.8
37.9
37.9
37.9
..
..
..
..
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
130.7
..
..
..
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
165.0
158.2
155.5
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
128.8
130.9
134.9
128.9
126.0
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
25.1
27.8
30.2
29.3
29.5
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.4
13.9
13.3
13.1
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
30.7
27.7
26.2
22.2
19.9
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
28.6
31.3
32.1
29.6
27.7
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
22.0
25.1
26.5
26.1
25.9
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
15.8
17.2
18.8
18.0
18.1
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.5
4.8
4.9
5.0
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
55.0
52.8
51.3
50.2
48.8
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
35.3
36.0
36.4
36.7
37.0
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
33.6
34.3
34.7
35.0
35.3
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
40.6
39.2
39.3
36.4
40.3
39.1
40.1
34.8
32.9
31.8
31.8
29.5
32.6
31.5
32.4
28.1
7.7
7.4
7.5
6.9
7.6
7.6
7.7
6.6
13.8
13.2
13.1
12.1
14.1
13.5
13.9
11.9
21.6
20.1
18.9
18.9
26.4
25.1
24.9
21.7
29.5
28.1
27.9
25.3
30.7
29.3
31.3
25.6
27.1
26.0
26.3
24.0
28.4
27.2
27.6
23.7
19.3
18.4
18.2
16.7
19.5
19.1
19.6
17.0
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.7
5.2
5.2
5.3
4.6
48.9
48.9
48.8
48.7
48.3
47.5
47.9
47.1
36.9
37.0
37.1
37.1
35.4
35.5
35.4
37.4
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.4
..
..
..
..
Note: The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971 – the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
*
The figures shown relate to the party who filed the petition. Petitions filed by quarter are not analysed by sex of petitioner – total figures are as follows
Number (thousands)
Number (thousands)
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
1989
1990
1991
45.1
50.2
45.7
44.5
45.3
46.8
45.0
47.7
48.2
42.1
46.0
38.4
1992
1993
1994
48.8
49.6
46.2
45.5
43.4
43.1
48.3
47.5
44.9
46.8
44.1
42.0
‡
Provisional.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
77
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
Notes to Tables
Changes to tables
A number of changes to the tables were introduced in Population
Trends 61 (see page 73 of that issue for details).Table 20 was
changed in Population Trends 70 (see page 61 of that issue for details)
Population
The estimated and projected populations of an area include all those
usually resident in the area, whatever their nationality. Members of
HM forces stationed outside the United Kingdom are excluded.
Students are taken to be resident at their term-time addresses.
Figures for the United Kingdom do not include the population of
the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man.
The population estimated for mid-1991 onwards are final figures
based on the 1991 Census of Population with allowance for
subsequent births, deaths and migration. Population estimates for
the years 1982-1990 have been revised, to give a smooth series
consistent with both 1981 and 1991 Census results.
Due to definitional changes, there are minor discontinuities for
Scotland and Northern Ireland between the figures for 1971 and
earlier years. At the United Kingdom and Great Britain levels these
discontinuities are negligible.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to numbers occurring in a
period; for Scotland and Northern Ireland, figures relate to those
registered in a period. See also Note on page 63 of Population
Trends 67.
Perinatal mortality
On October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed,
from baby born dead after 28 completed weeks gestation of more,
to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more.
Expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are based use current
death rates to describe mortality levels for each year. Each
individual year shown is based on a three year period, so that for
instance 1986 represents 1985-87. More details may be found in
Population Trends 60, page 23.
Pensionable ages
Age analyses of the form 45-64/59 or 65/60-74 indicate age groups
terminating at or beginning with the state pensionable age, 65 for
men, 60 for women.
78
Abortions
Figures relate to numbers occurring in a period.
Migration
Figures in Tables 18-20 are derived from the International
Passenger Survey (IPS), a sample survey of all passengers
travelling through major air and seaports of the United
Kingdom. Routes to and from the Irish Republic are
excluded. Migration between the Channel Islands or the
Isle of Man and the rest of the world was previously
included in the total migration to the United Kingdom.
From 1988 this has been excluded.
It is highly likely that the IPS data also exclude persons
seeking asylum after entering the country and short-term
visitors granted extensions of stay, for example as students
or on the basis of marriage. After taking account of persons
leaving the UK for a short-term period who stayed overseas
for periods longer that originally intended, the adjustment
needed to net migration ranges from about 10 thousand in
1981 to 50 thousand in the latest year available.
A migrant into the United Kingdom is defined in these
tables as a passenger entering the United Kingdom with
the declared intention of residing here for at least a year
having lived abroad for at least a year; and vice versa for a
migrant from the United Kingdom.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia, Canada, New
Zealand and South Africa, New Commonwealth is defined as
all other Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the
United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
Figures in Table 21 are based on the movement of NHS
doctors’ patients between Family Health Services
Authorities (FHSAs) in England and Wales, and Area Health
Boards in Scotland, and Northern Ireland.Yearly figures
have been adjusted to take account of differences in
recorded cross-border flows between England and Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland; quarterly figures have not
been adjusted.
Deaths for England and Wales
Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year,
except for 1993 and 1994, which represent the numbers of
deaths occurring in each year. See also Note on page 63 of
Population Trends 67.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport was
computerised in early 1991, prior to which a three month
time lag was assumed between a person moving and their
re-registration with an NHS doctor being processed onto
the NHSCR. Since computerisation, estimates of internal
migration are based on the date of acceptance of the new
patient by the FHSA (not previously available), and a one
month time lag assumed.
From Population Trends 91 onwards, deaths data for Tables 8 and 1416, include figures for the most recent quarter, three months
earlier than was previously the case. Data will be less complete for
this quarter than for earlier ones.
Marriages and divorces
Work is in progress on finalising the corresponding 1991
population estimates in the light of the 1991 Census and
other data sources. Once this is done, retrospective
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 1
|
S p r i n g
1 9 9 8
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Notes to Tables continued
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently; constituent parts
may not add to totals. Generally numbers and rates per
1,000 population are rounded to 1 decimal place (eg.
123.4); where appropriate, for small figures (below 10.0), 2
decimal places are given. Figures which are provisional or
estimated are given in less detail (eg. 123 or 7.6
respectively) if their reliability does not justify giving the
standard amount of detail. Where, for some other reason,
figures need to be treated with particular caution, an
explanation is given as a footnote.
revisions to the estimates from 1981 and 1991 may be
necessary. Until then, estimates (and the marriage and
divorce rates derived from them) from 1982 onward
should be regarded as provisional. Marriages are those
according to date of solemnisation. Divorces are those
according to date of decree absolute, and the term
‘divorces’ includes decrees of nullity.
Standard regions
Figures refer to regions of England as constituted after
local government reorganisation on 1 April 1974. The
regions, defined in terms of the new counties, were listed
in Population Trends 31, page 27.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may be provisional
(see note above on rounding) and will be updated in future
issues when later information becomes available. Where
figures are not yet available, cells are left blank. Population
estimates and rates based on them may be revised in the
light of results from future censuses of populations.
Health regions
Figures refer to health regions of England as constituted on
1 April 1982 unless otherwise stated.The regions, defined
in terms of the new district health authorities, as at 1 April
1982, were listed in Population Trends 31, page 28.
Symbols
.. not available
: not applicable
- nil or less than half the final digit shown.
Sources
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland shown in these
tables (or included in totals for the United Kingdom or
Great Britain) have been provided by their respective
General Register Offices, except for the projections in
Table 2 which are provided by the Government Actuary.
The International Passenger Survey (Tables 18-20) is
conducted by the Social Survey Division of ONS.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
79
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
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S p r i n g
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Contact points at ONS
People with enquires about the statistics published regularly in
Population Trends can contact the following enquiry points.
Topic
Abortion statistics – 0171-533 5208
Fertility statistics – 0171-533 5113
Migration statistics – 01329-81 3255/3889
Mortality statistics – 0171-533 5251/5246
Population estimates – 01329 813318
Population projections –
National – 0171-211 2622*
Subnational – 01329 813403
Tel 0171-533 6262
Editorial enquires for Population Trends
Population Trends
ONS
B7/05
1 Drummond Gate
London SW1V 2QQ
Tel 0171-533 5101
* Government Actuary’s Department
80
O f f i c e
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N a t i o n a l
General enquiries
National Statistics Information and Library Service,
1 Drummond Gate,
London SW1V 2QQ
S t a t i s t i c s