Population Trends
Contents
Regulars
In brief
3
Population Trends: readers’ views invited; Scottish household estimates and
projections; Subnational population projections for Wales; Key Population and
Vital Statistics 2006; Date of 2011 Census announced; Future developments in
the reporting of population and migration statistics; Task Force on the quality of the
Labour Force Survey; Annual Population Survey household datasets; Effects of
problems with birth and death registration systems on ONS statistical outputs;
Recent publications
Demographic indicators
7
Features
Estimating the changing population of the ‘oldest old’
Ercilia Dini and Shayla Goldring
8
Explores the reasons for a ninety-fold increase in the centenarian population
in England and Wales between 1911 and 2006
Age differences at marriage and divorce
Ben Wilson and Steve Smallwood
17
Investigates whether age differences between men and women at marriage
are associated with a higher risk of divorce
No 132
Summer 2008
Office for National Statistics
2007 Census Test: Evaluation of key objectives
Garnett Compton
26
Presents how the 2007 Census Test helps to give shape to the 2011 Census in
the UK
Tables
List of tables
Tables 1.1-9.3
Notes to tables Reports and annual updates
35
36
64
Marriages in England and Wales, 2006
65
Marriages and divorces during 2005, and adoptions in 2006: England
and Wales
71
Other population and health articles, publications and data
76
Other customer and media enquiries
ISBN 978–0–230–21755–3
ISSN 0307–4463
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Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
S u m m e r 2008
in brief
Population
Trends: readers’
views invited
As part of ONS’s continual drive to maintain
the quality of this important demographic
journal, we are asking our readership if
they would let us have any comments and
suggestions to ensure that it remains fresh and
pertinent. We welcome suggestions as to future
scope and direction, while always endeavouring
to maintain the high standards expected by our
valued readership.
If you would like to give us your views, please
contact us at: chris.w.smith@ons.gsi.gov.uk.
Readers are also reminded that we always
welcome submission of papers from external
colleagues that are appropriate to the scope of
the journal.
Scottish
household
estimates and
projections
The General Register Office for Scotland
published household estimates and projections
for Scotland on 8 May 2008.
These figures showed that the number of
households in Scotland continues to increase
– partly due to a small projected increase
in population, but mainly due to changes
in household structure, with more people
living alone and in smaller households. It is
influenced by the ageing population, as older
people are more likely to live alone or with
just one other person. The release and data
are found here: www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/
statistics/household-estimates-projections/
index.html
The household estimates include figures showing
the number of dwellings which are occupied,
vacant or second homes. Across Scotland as a
whole, 2.8 per cent of dwellings are vacant and
1.4 per cent are second homes, though there is
wide variation across the country. Remote rural
areas have the lowest percentage of dwellings
which are occupied (88 per cent), with relatively
high percentages of vacant dwellings (5 per cent of
all dwellings in these areas) and second homes
(7 per cent). These figures are also available at
small area level from the Scottish Neighbourhood
Statistics website: www.sns.gov.uk
Sub-national
population
projections for
Wales
The Welsh Assembly Government published a
set of sub-national population projections for
Wales local authorities at the end of June 2008.
This is the first time that population projections
have been published for the 22 local authorities
of Wales. The methodology differs from that
used in the other UK countries in that they
use a bottom-up methodology, meaning they
are not constrained to the national population
projections at all stages. They are trend-based
projections.
Further information on the projections can be
accessed at the Welsh Assembly Government
website: www.wales.gov.uk/statistics
Workshops for potential users of sub-national
projections will be held in Wales during July 2008.
Key Population
and Vital
Statistics 2006
(Series VS No 33, PP1 No 29) was published on
24 April 2008.
This annual publication draws together the UK’s
key population and vital statistics into a single
volume. These are produced by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS), the General Register
Office for Scotland (GROS), the Northern
Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
and the Scottish Health Service.
The statistics included in this volume cover
population, births and fertility rates, maternities
and maternity rates, deaths and mortality rates,
migration within the UK and migration between
the UK and the rest of the world.
Link on National Statistics website: www.
statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=539
Date of
2011 Census
announced
The planned date for the next UK census has
been announced jointly by ONS, the General
Register Office for Scotland and the Northern
Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, as
27 March 2011. Selection of the planned
date for the census took many factors into
account including public holidays, school and
university term times, potential election dates
and daylight hours. The confirmed date will
follow approval, through secondary legislation,
by Parliament and the respective legislatures
3
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l Sta ti sti c s
Po pu lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
in Scotland and Northern Ireland towards the
end of 2009.
A rehearsal for the 2011 Census will be carried
out in 2009. In England and Wales this will take
place on 11 October 2009 in:
• Lancaster
• London Borough of Newham, and
• Ynys Môn – Isle of Anglesey
Complementary rehearsals will also take place
in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The rehearsal will pilot the processes and
operational systems for the planned census in
2011. ONS will, in particular, work closely with
local authorities and community groups in the
rehearsal areas to establish effective ways of
working together in the preparation for the 2011
Census, building on the experience gained in
the 2007 Test in Bath and North East Somerset,
Camden, Carmarthenshire, Liverpool and
Stoke-on-Trent.
The combination of rehearsal areas was chosen
to provide experience of the different factors
and environmental conditions which will
occur in the 2011 Census. A sample of around
110,000 households across the three areas will
be selected. Ten selection criteria were applied
in order to determine the chosen areas. The
combination selected includes: a large twotier area covering sections of a city and some
surrounding rural areas; an area in London with
diverse population; and an area in Wales with a
high population of Welsh speakers.
A temporary field force will be recruited to
carry out the rehearsal. Public participation in
the rehearsal is voluntary, and the results will
be used for evaluation purposes. No statistical
outputs will be produced.
Prior to the rehearsal, a check of addresses in
the selected areas will seek to ensure complete
coverage. Households will receive census
questionnaires either by post (in the majority
of cases) or by hand delivery from census field
staff. Census forms may be returned by post or
completed online. There will be a subsequent
follow-up of households which do not respond.
The Census Coverage Survey (CCS) will also
be rehearsed some five weeks after the rehearsal
itself, in a sample of the selected areas. The
CCS will assess the level of under coverage
and the characteristics of the households who
do not respond.
The Registrars General for the three UK census
cffices have agreed that 27 March 2011 will be
the date for the next UK census.
The 2009 rehearsal will take place on 11
October 2009 and will include approximately
110,000 households within the local authorities
of Lancaster, Newham and Ynys Mon – Isle
of Anglesey.
The rehearsal will test processes and operational
systems in preparation for a successful 2011
Census.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
4
Future
developments
in the reporting
of population
and migration
statistics
Introduction
Large increases to the size of the UK population
over recent years and changes to its structure
have led to growing demand for and interest
in statistics on population and migration. To
respond to this demand, the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) has introduced a range of new
products in the form of experimental statistics
such as small area population estimates1,
population estimates by ethnic group2, quarterly
population estimates3 and estimates of shortterm migration4. ONS plans to develop these
products further to meet official National
Statistics status in the future. ONS has also
been considering how its range of population
and migration products can be further enhanced
in preparing for the 2011 Census, in particular
in terms of providing outputs for a range of
different population bases5.
In addition to these developments, there is also
a demand from users for the coherence and
accessibility of statistics on population and
migration to be improved. This article reports
on how the ONS Centre for Demography
(ONSCD) is planning to meet this challenge
over the coming years.
Improving the coherence of population
and migration statistics
Each year there are many migration and
population outputs produced by different
departments across government, using different
definitions, reference periods, and data sources;
in 2007, the main migration and population
statistics releases were published on over
40 separate dates. This is known to create
uncertainty for users who may be unsure of the
appropriate statistics for their specific purposes,
or why seemingly related statistics may tell
different stories.
This issue was recognised in the report of the
Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration
Statistics6, published in December 2006,
which recommended that key information on
migration collected across government should
be brought together in one place to achieve
coherent reporting, and be summarised in an
Annual Migration Report.
A cross-government migration reporting
working group has been set up to fulfil
this vision; the working group includes
representatives from ONS, the Department for
Communities & Local Government, the Home
Office, the Department for Work & Pensions,
HM Revenue & Customs, the Department for
Children, Schools & Families, and the devolved
administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern
Ireland. The vision outlined by the Task Force
will be achieved through greater coordination
between government departments, joint release
of outputs, provision of a principal point of
access, and adding value to the outputs in terms
of insight, expert analysis and commentary.
Greater coordination between
government departments and joint
release of outputs:
• Statisticians in government departments
will work together to agree release dates
for migration and population statistics.
Coordinated release dates will allow more
effective briefing that will concentrate on
which of the statistics should be used for what
purpose and why. Currently one department’s
outputs can be seen to be superseded within
weeks or days by another department’s
outputs despite relating to a different
reference period or definition – coordinated
release dates will reduce this risk.
• The frequency of publication will need to
reflect the balance between timeliness and
the desire to reduce the number of separate
releases. As a first step towards this vision,
outputs on population and migration across
government since the start of 2008 have been
coordinated into three main releases on
26 February, 20 May and 12 June. Three
further coordinated releases are planned during
2008 in August, September and November.
Principal point of access:
• A dedicated area for population and
migration statistics will be developed online
from where it will be possible to access
all commentary, analyses, metadata and
links to published data. This development
will mean that users will be able to more
easily find the statistics they need instead of
having to search over many different sites
as at present.
• The National Statistics website will be
re-engineered over the coming year through
the ONS i-Dissemination Programme. It is
unlikely to be possible to deliver the population
and migration statistics area of the site fully
until the re-engineering work is complete. One
aspect of the re-engineering work that will be
delivered in incremental stages during 2008 is
the creation of a Publication Hub7, available
via the current website (www.statistics.gov.uk),
that will provide a central online distribution
outlet for all National Statistics releases and
other official statistics.
Adding value to outputs:
• It is proposed that each set of grouped
reports will be accompanied by a high-level
commentary to compare and contrast the
different data sources, methods, reference
periods and definitions. It will also outline key
messages and trends in the periodic reports
and explain any apparent inconsistencies. This
approach will help explain which data should
be used for specific purposes.
• An annual report on migration, giving an
overview of the whole year’s migration
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
outputs with in-depth analyses and review,
will supplement the periodic reports. This
annual volume, which will be published
as an online publication only, will include
expert commentary and provide the key
messages surrounding the migration
statistics – for example what the statistics
mean, what are the key patterns shown,
what are the underlying trends, and the
answers to other research questions.
This vision represents a radical departure from
the way in which statistics are released currently.
Therefore it is anticipated that the move towards
this end will be achieved through a series of
managed step changes over time. The details of
how the vision may best be achieved were the
subject of a public consultation exercise between
February and May this year. Responses to this
consultation will shape work towards achieving
the long-term vision over the next two years.
Improving the accessibility of population and
migration statistics
Online access
As mentioned above, ONS is developing a
successor to the current National Statistics
website through its i-Dissemination
Programme. The structure and functionality of
the new website, which is due to be released
within the next year, will allow much improved
access to population and migration statistics.
As part of the development of the new website,
ONSCD plans to develop a homepage that
will provide a gateway to all ONS statistics on
population and migration, with links to pages
on different topics and data sources with clear
links to data, metadata, methodologies, and
commentary. As well as re-developing the web
pages for population and migration statistics,
ONSCD also aims to develop:
internet only, as the International Migration
Annual volume (MN series) has since 2002.
One recent development has the introduction of an
annual review article by the National Statistician
on the UK population providing an overview of the
latest statistics on population and demography, plus
a focus on a specific topic. The first of these annual
articles13 was published in Population Trends in
December 2007 and included a focus on fertility,
and in particular the impact of international
migration upon fertility.
References
1 Information on latest small area population
estimates available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/Methodologyby-theme/sape/default.asp
2 Information on latest experimental
population estimates by ethnic groups
available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.
asp?vlnk=14238
3 Information on latest quarterly population
estimates available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/Statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=13523
4 Office for National Statistics (2007)
Research Report on Short-term Migration.
Available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/
methodology/specific/population/future/
imps/updates/downloads/STM_Research_
Report.pdf
5 Smith CW & Jefferies J (2006): Population
bases and statistical provision: towards a
more flexible future?, Population Trends 124
available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=6303
• a more coherent and flexible set of data tables,
and more easily accessible time-series data,
with an online directory to aid accessibility
6 Report of the inter-departmental Task Force
into international migration statistics,
issued December 2006. Available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=14731
• more interactive graphics and maps,
building on the interactive population
pyramid8 that is already available on the
National Statistics website
7 Further information on the new Publications
Hub available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/
independence/publicationhub.asp
• the facility for users to create their own
custom-built tables and maps
8 Interactive Population Pyramid available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/populationestimates/
svg_pyramid/default.htm
Print publications
In relation to printed publications, it is proposed
that Population Trends9 should be re-designed and
brought more up-to-date. One possible model
for this might be the new publication Economic
& Labour Market Review10 (launched at the start
of 2007 through an amalgamation of Economic
Trends and Labour Market Trends) which features
a greater number of shorter articles and fewer key
tables with a directory of all the tables available
and where to find them online.
In the future, it is possible that Population
Trends will be the only printed publication
on population and migration statistics. From
2009, it is proposed that the annual volume
Key Population and Vital Statistics11 and the
bi-annual volume on the National Population
Projections12 will be disseminated via the
9 Population Trends available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=6303
10 Economic & Labour Market Review
available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/elmr
11 Key Population & Vital Statistics available
at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=539
12 National Population Projections reference
volume available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=4611
13 Dunnell K (2007): The Changing
Demographic Picture of the UK –National
S u m m e r 2008
Statistician’s Annual Article on the Population,
Population Trends 130 available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=6303
Task Force on
the quality of
the Labour Force
Survey
As previously reported in the September 2007
edition of Economic & Labour Market Review,
the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is
participating in a Eurostat (Statistical Office
of the European Community) Task Force on
the quality of the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
The Task Force was set up in spring 2007 and
is expected to run for two years, producing a
final report around summer 2009. In addition
to the UK, experts from Germany, Greece,
Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland
and Portugal are taking part. Non-participating
EU countries receive progress reports at the
six-monthly Labour Market Statistics Working
Groups held at Eurostat, Luxembourg. The Task
Force’s remit is to examine issues relating to the
quality of the LFS, particularly the estimates of
employment and unemployment, with regard
to accuracy, coherence and comparability. It
is therefore orientated towards examining the
practices and methods employed in conducting
and compiling the survey across Member States.
The first meeting held in October 2007
concentrated on accuracy, and the sources of
error that can arise in survey estimates due to
both sampling error and nonsampling error. A
wide range of issues and possible solutions were
discussed. A key theme emerging was that the
experiences of each Member State can be rather
different and so prescribing generic solutions
across European Union (EU) countries would
not necessarily be helpful. Rather, suggestions
for best practice would be appropriate. The
difficulties with conducting surveys in smaller
EU countries as opposed to larger Member States
can be very different. Similarly, use of different
survey collection modes (face to face interviewing,
telephone or internet) generates different degrees
of bias across countries, and across regions within
Member States, and in part was determined by the
rural-urban balance.
The second meeting was held on 6–7 March
2008. It concluded discussions on accuracy, and
held initial discussions on the topic of coherence
between labour market and national accounts
estimates, with ONS presenting its drivers for
improving coherence, and experience to date
in this area. The next meeting will be held in
September 2008.
Contact
Debra Prestwood
01633 455882
debra.prestwood@ons.gsi.gov.uk
5
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l Sta ti sti c s
Po pu lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Annual
Population
Survey household
datasets
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has
developed a version of the Annual Population
Survey (APS) datasets that is specially
designed for producing family and household
labour market statistics at the subnational
level. The new APS household datasets will
provide local area statistics on, for example:
workless households and the people living
in them couples where both partners are
working, one partner is working, neither is
working, employment rates for lone parents
and couple parents with dependent children,
and for people without dependent children
children by the economic activity status of
their parent(s).
The datasets cover January to December of each
year. They contain results from four consecutive
quarters of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and
include information from Wave 1 and Wave 5
interviews only. They also include results from
the annual local area LFS boosts. Each dataset
contains information from a sample of around
160,000 households, whereas the existing LFS
household datasets are based on a sample of
around 53,000 households.
Unlike the main (person-level) APS datasets,
people with unknown economic activity status
are included. They are given the same weight
as other members of their household and their
economic activity status is imputed using a
‘donor imputation method’. The APS household
datasets include all of the variables found on
the main APS datasets, except for the earnings
variables. They also include additional derived
variables for analysing the combined economic
activity status of family and household
members.
The first APS household dataset (for January
to December 2007) is due to be released in
summer 2008, with a back series covering
2004, 2005 and 2006. An article giving
further information about the datasets will
be published later this year. ONS plans to
publish APS-based family and household
statistics for local areas on a regular
basis thereafter, depending on customer
requirements. Customers will be able to
commission bespoke tabulations from the
LFS Data Service and to obtain access to
the datasets, subject to protocols governing
access to survey microdata. Guidance on how
to produce family and household analyses
will also be available.
Contact
Annette Walling
01633 455840
annette.walling@ons.gsi.gov.uk
timetable for some is delayed. Statistical quality
assurance and compilation processes have been
completed for the March, June and September
quarters 2007 for provisional outputs and are
continuing for the full year statistics.
How this affects figures in Population Trends
Provisional births, deaths and childhood mortality
figures for the quarter ending September 2007
for England and Wales, due in the Spring 2008
edition of Population Trends are released in this
edition. Annual figures for 2007 usually available
in the Summer edition are planned to appear
in the Autumn edition as are the reports Live
births in England and Wales, 2007: area of
residence and Death registrations in England
and Wales, 2007: area of residence. Annual
figures for live births and death registrations
for 2007 are scheduled for publication in
July 2008 and can be found for births at
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.
asp?vlnk=14408 and for deaths at www.statistics.
gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14409
Effects of
problems with
birth and death
registration
systems on
ONS statistical
outputs
As described in the previous editions of
Population Trends , problems with the
introduction of the new registration online
system (RON) at register offices in England and
Wales led to the temporary suspension of some
ONS outputs that rely on the completeness of
births and deaths registered between the end of
March and the beginning of May 2007. Almost
all outputs have now resumed, although the
Recent Publications
Civil partnerships 2007 (June, available on the National Statistics website
at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=14675)
Health Statistics Quarterly 38 (Palgrave Macmillan, £32.50, March,
ISBN 978–0–230–21676–1)
International migration 2006, (MN no. 33) (May, available on the
National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.
asp?vlnk=507)
Key Population and Vital Statistics 2006 data (VS no. 33 PP1 no. 29)
(Palgrave Macmillan, £49.50, April, ISBN 978–0–230–54562–5)
National Population Projections 2006-based (PP2 no. 26) (Palgrave
Macmillan, £50, June, ISBN 978–0–230–22340–0)
National statistician’s annual article on society: diversity and different
experiences in the UK (April, available on the National Statistics website
at www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/article.asp?ID=1976)
Regional Trends 2008 (Palgrave Macmillan, £45, May, ISBN 978–1–
4039–9386–1)
Social Trends 2008 (Palgrave Macmillan, £49.50, April, ISBN 978–0–
230–54564–9)
Subnational population projections 2006-based (June, available on the
National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.
asp?vlnk=997)
UK Health Statistics 2008 (Palgrave Macmillan, £50, June, ISBN
978–0–230–21096–7)
All of the above Palgrave Macmillan-published titles can be ordered on
01256 302611 or online at www.palgrave.com/ons. All publications listed
can be downloaded free of charge from the National Statistics website.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
6
S u m m e r 2008
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Demographic indicators
Figure A
England and Wales
Population change (mid-year to mid-year)
Thousands
400
Natural change
300
Total change
200
100
0
–100
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1–7 72–7 73–7 74–7 75–7 76–7 77–7 78–7 79–8 80–8 81–8 82–8 83–8 84–8 85–8 86–8 87–8 88–8 89–9 90–9 91–9 92–9 93–9 94–9 95–9 96–9 97–9 98–99–200000–0001–0002–0003–0004–0005–0
9 2 2 2 2 2 2
Mid-year
197
Figure B
Total fertility rate
TFR (average number of children per woman)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Figure C
Live births outside marriage
Percentage of all live births
50
40
30
20
10
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
Year
Figure D
Infant mortality (under 1 year)
Rate per thousand live births
20
15
10
5
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
7
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l Sta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Wi n t e r 2007
Estimating the changing
population of the
‘oldest old’
Ercilia Dini and Shayla Goldring
Office for National Statistics
Introduction
The population of England and Wales is
becoming older. This poses an increasing
demand for detailed data on the size and
trends of the population at the oldest
ages. Using the recently released Office
for National Statistics estimates of the
population aged 90 and over in England
and Wales, this article shows trends in
the population of the oldest old and
demographic causes of the rapid increase in
centenarians during the twentieth century. It
also presents further validation of the ONS
estimates of the oldest old with estimates
from other data sources.
The population of England and Wales is becoming older.1, 2 The ageing
of the population is determined by past changes in fertility and mortality.
These changes started to gather pace in the late nineteenth and early
twentieth century.1 At that time, birth and death rates were relatively high,
with large numbers of deaths occurring during infancy and childhood.
Overall, over the past 150 years, there have been falls in both the death
and birth rates. These have resulted in changes in the chances of survival
into later life and in the size of generations available to survive. Decreases
in mortality during the second half of the twentieth century, combined
with fertility below replacement level since 19733, have resulted in the
increasingly aged population seen today. National population projections
indicate that population ageing will continue for the next few decades.4
This is due to the effect of large numbers of people from the 1960s baby
boom who are currently of working age, reaching retirement age, combined
with smaller numbers of people replacing them in the working population.
As the older population grows and life expectancy increases, information
on the size and characteristics of this population becomes more important
for policy makers. Until recently, broad age groups have often been
used in estimates when describing the characteristics of the population
at older ages, for example 65 years and over, or 75 years and over.
This is because historically they represented a small proportion of the
population and so estimates by finer age banding would be unreliable.
However, the increase in life expectancy over the last century means
that reaching extreme ages is no longer rare. Recent articles published in
Population Trends have used the definition of 85 years and over to detail
the demographic and social characteristics of the oldest old. 5,6 As these
articles note, setting an age limit to identify the oldest old should reflect
the dynamic process of population ageing.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
8
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
There is an increasing demand for detailed data on the size and trends of
the population in the oldest ages; in particular for the age 90 years and
over. Estimates of the population aged 90 and over by single year of age
and sex are required for calculating age specific mortality rates and for
population projections.
This article uses the recently released Office for National Statistics
(ONS) experimental estimates of the population aged 90 years and over
in England and Wales. It shows trends in the population of the oldest old
and the demographic causes of the rapid increase in centenarians during
the twentieth century. It also validates the ONS estimates of the oldest
old with estimates from other data sources.
Data sources
The census is the most authoritative source of information on the
population of England and Wales. It is held every ten years and the last
census was in 2001. Between censuses ONS mid-year population estimates
(based on the census) become the most reliable data source on population
by age and sex. At present mid-year estimates of those aged 90 years and
over are grouped to increase reliability, preventing detailed analyses of
population trends at very old ages. ONS recently released experimental
population estimates of the very elderly in England and Wales for 2002
to 2006, by single year of age and sex for ages 90 to 104, and grouped for
105 and over.7 These estimates were produced using the Kannisto-Thatcher
(KT) method. 8 Previous research comparing KT with other methods have
been conducted using data for several countries.1 Brief summaries of the
method used by ONS to produce mid-year population estimates and the
experimental estimates are shown in Boxes 1 and 2.
This article also uses the ONS actual, historical and projected mortality
database/life tables for England and Wales. The mortality database/life tables
are updated every two years. The latest update was made in early 2008
to take account of the revised population estimates and the new mortality
assumptions used in the latest 2006-based national population projections.
This article presents comparisons of ONS experimental estimates for
the population 90 years and over with 2001 Census counts and with
data from the ONS-Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS). In addition data on
numbers of birthday messages from HM the Queen or the Secretary of
State for Work and Pensions to individuals aged 100 years were also used
to validate the ONS estimates for 2001 and 2006.
Box one
Summary of the method used to construct ONS
mid-year estimates of the population in England and
Wales (cohort component method)9
•• Take the previous mid-year resident population and age-on by
one year
•• Then estimate the natural population change between 1 July and
30 June by adding births and subtracting deaths that occurred
between these dates (one year)
•• Allow for international migration by adding inflows and
subtracting outflows
•• Allow for internal migration by adding inflows and subtracting
outflows
•• Special estimates are made for: UK armed forces, foreign armed
forces and dependants, prisoners and school borders
The method is slightly different in census years. The main difference is that
instead of ageing on the population by a year, the census-base population
is aged on to account for the period between census day and 30 June.
S u m m e r 2008
Box two
Summary of the Kannisto-Thatcher method used to
construct ONS experimental estimates of the very
elderly
The KT method8 is a version of the survivor ratio method. These methods
provide age-specific estimates of population at older ages using data
from death registrations.
For a particular cohort at a particular age, the ratio of the number
of survivors to the numbers in the cohort who died in the previous
k years is estimated from the experience of the previous m cohorts. This
ratio is then applied using the most recently available mortality data.
To compensate for the fact that reduced mortality at higher ages may
increase the size of this ratio over time, a correction factor is applied. The
factor is the same for each year of age and constrains the estimates to
sum to the national estimate of the population aged 90 and over.
Since the method requires numbers of survivors in the previous
m cohorts, these have to be estimated using current year estimates and
previous year’s deaths data. The calculations are performed sequentially
for single years of age, starting with the oldest, which is taken to be
120. For the method to work it is necessary to first assume that the
survivorship to age 121 is zero.
Where the cohort in question is not yet extinct the survivor ratio can be
estimated from the experience of the previous cohorts.
A limitation to the method is that the addition of a further year’s mortality
data results in changes in the single year of age estimates for previous years.
Trends in the population of the oldest old
The number and proportion of those aged 85 and over in England and
Wales has risen rapidly over the last century. At the start of the twentieth
century only 48,000 people (0.1 per cent of the total population) in England
and Wales were aged 85 and over. A century later, this number had reached
1 million, a twenty-fold increase, resulting in this group representing
2 per cent of the total population. The 2006-based national population
projections show that population growth at the oldest ages is likely to
continue, with the number aged 85 and over being projected to be just over
2.5 million in 2031 (4 per cent of the projected total population size).4
Figure 1 shows how the overall population age structure has changed
since 1901. It is possible to see evidence of the final stage of the first
Proportions of total population by quinary age group
and sex, England and Wales, 1901, 1951 and 2001
Figure 1
90
MALES
FEMALES
80
70
60
50
40
2001
30
2001
20
1901
10
1951
0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02
1951
0
1901
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14
Proportion of population
Source: Censuses, Office for National Statistics
9
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
demographic transition (that is transition from high to low fertility and
high to low mortality) between 1901 and 1951, characterised by the
lower proportions of younger people and higher proportions of people
aged over 50. In 2001, there is evidence of a further fall in fertility and
also increases in the proportion of the population aged 75 and over. The
bulge for 2001 around the ages of 35–55 represents the ageing of the post
war baby boom generation.
Inter-censal estimates of the oldest old
Another way of illustrating how the distribution of the population has
changed at the oldest ages is by looking at the uppermost percentiles.
Figure 2 shows the estimated ages above which the oldest 1 and 5 per
cent of the population are found. Actual figures are presented for the
period between 1981 and 2006 and the projected figures between 2007
and 2031. In 1981, the age above which the oldest 5 per cent of the male
population was found was 73; in 2006 the corresponding age was 77,
and it is projected that by 2031 the cut-off for the oldest 5 per cent of the
male population in England and Wales will have risen to 82 years. For
females the corresponding ages separating the oldest 5 per cent of the
population from the rest are respectively 78, 81 and 84.
An estimated 373,130 people aged 90 to 99 were resident in England and
Wales in 2006. This is a 12 per cent increase from 333,490 in 2001. The
number of females at all ages is greater than the number of males because
women live longer than men. In 2006 there were about three women aged
90 to 99 for each man aged 90 to 99. However, the gap has narrowed over
time reflecting recent relative improvements in male mortality at older
ages. Between 2001 and 2006, the number of men aged between 90 and
99 increased by 24 per cent whereas for women the increase was just
over 8 per cent.
As the number and share of the population increases at the oldest ages,
reliable estimates by single year of age become more important. Table 1
presents the recently published ONS estimates of the population aged
90 and over for age groups 90–94, 95–99 and 100 and over, by sex. It
also presents the previously unreleased estimates for 2001.
Figure 3 shows the estimated numbers of male and female centenarians
for England and Wales over the period 1911 to 2006. It is estimated just
under 9,000 people were aged 100 and over in 2006; a 90-fold increase
since 1911, when there were only an estimated 100 centenarians. The
increase has not been constant across this period. Between 1911 and
1940, the average annual increase in the number of centenarians was
about 2 per cent. The average annual increase was much higher between
1940 and 1980, at about 6.5 per cent. Since 1980 the increase has slowed
down slightly to an average of about 5.5 per cent yearly.
In 2006, 1 per cent of the male population were above the age of 86, but
by 2031 1 per cent of the population will be above the age of 92. In 1981,
1 per cent of the female population in England and Wales was above the
age of 87. It is projected that by 2031 this percentage of women will be
above the age of 93.
The increases in the population at oldest ages are the result of the decline in
mortality rates seen during the twentieth century and also the relatively high
numbers of births seen between the end of the nineteenth and beginning of
the twentieth century.10 The implied extension of life can be considered an
achievement; however, it raises concerns about increases in spending on
pensions and health and social care. It also increases the demand for more
detailed information on the age structure in the oldest ages.
Figure 2
Figure 4 shows the ratio of women to men for the population aged
90 and over and 100 and over between 1911 and 2006. Since 1911
female centenarians have always outnumbered male centenarians due to
women having on average greater life expectancy. However, the ratio of
female to male centenarians has fluctuated over time. At the beginning
of the twentieth century, there were about three centenarian women for
each centenarian man. The sharp increase in the ratio at the end of the
1950s must be interpreted with caution because of the small numbers
of centenarians during the first half of the twentieth century. However,
this could reflect the high number of casualties amongst men in colonial
wars as well as higher male emigration to Oceania during the 1880s.
Subsequent increases in the ratio seen over the last 35 years reflect
greater improvements in mortality at older ages amongst women. A sharp
increase in the ratio also occurred during the 1990s, which reflects the
higher mortality amongst men during the First World War. Since then, the
ratio has begun to decrease due to improvements in male mortality, and in
2006 there were seven centenarian women for each centenarian man.
Estimated and projected ages of the 95th and 99th
percentiles of the population by sex, England and
Wales, 1981–2031
100
95
90
Age
85
80
75
99th percentile – females
99th percentile – males
95th percentile – females
95th percentile – males
70
65
60
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
The time series of the ratio of women to men for the population aged
90 and over is much smoother than the equivalent ratio for centenarians,
reflecting their larger numbers. The women to men ratio for the
population aged 90 and over shows a small but steady increase from two
in 1911 to four in early to mid–1990s. The turning point where the ratio
has started to decrease due to improvement in male mortality is seen
roughly a decade earlier than that seen among centenarians.
2031
Source: Mid-year estimates and National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Estimated population aged 90 and over by age group and sex, England and Wales, 2001–2006
Table 1
Age/Age group
90–94
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
66,390
207,680
69,660
211,690
72,740
215,260
76,090
218,090
79,220
220,520
80,380
219,420
95–99
10,000
49,420
10,740
51,620
11,510
53,500
12,400
55,160
13,320
57,130
14,400
58,940
90–99
76,390
257,100
80,400
263,310
84,260
268,760
88,490
273,250
92,530
277,650
94,770
278,360
720
5,970
770
6,340
800
6,650
880
6,970
990
7,350
1,120
7,850
100 and over
Source: Office for National Statistics
Notes: Estimates of the very elderly (including centenarians), 2001 estimates have not been published previously. Figures are rounded to the nearest ten people for each age group.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
10
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Population aged 100 and over by sex, England and
Wales, 1911–2006
Figure 3
9,000
Total
Female
Male
8,000
7,000
Population
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1916
1926
1936
1946
1956
1966
1976
1986
1996
2006
Estimates of the very elderly (including centenarians).
Source: Office for National Statistics
Note: Data prior to 2001 are 1st January; data from 2001 onwards are mid-year
Figure 4
S u m m e r 2008
who are expected to survive from birth to age 80 for cohorts born 1851 to
2001. The estimates are based on actual, estimated historical and projected
mortality rates from the 2006-based principal population projections.
Nine per cent of men and about 14 per cent of women born in 1851
survived to their 80th birthday. This proportion increased gradually for
those born during the last half of the nineteenth century with the greatest
increase in survival seen among females. About 35 per cent of the cohort
of women born in 1901 celebrated their 80th birthday in contrast with
only 15 per cent of men. The beginning of the twentieth century was the
starting point for a steady increase in survival to age 80 for men, but it is
also the time at which we see the greatest difference in survival between
men and women. A likely explanation for the widening gap between
survival of males and females is that many men took up smoking during
and after the First World War. 12 About half of the women born during
the early 1920s survived to their 80th birthday. The same proportion of
survival for men may be seen about 15 years later, by cohorts born during
late 1930s.
Based on assumptions for ONS 2006-based national population
projections, it is expected that about 75 per cent of men and just over 80
per cent of women born at the end of the twentieth century will survive to
their 80th birthday.
Ratio of women to men for population aged 90
and over and 100 and over. England and Wales,
1911–2006
Survival (per cent) from birth to age 80 by sex.
Cohorts born in England and Wales between 1851
and 2001
Figure 5
12
90
10
Projected
80
70
Survival, per cent
Ratio
8
6
4
2
0
Ratio of women/men 100+
Ratio of women/men 90+
1916
1926
1936
1946
1956
1966
1976
1986
1996
60
Female
50
40
Male
30
20
10
2006
Estimates of the very elderly (including centenarians).
Source: Office for National Statistics
Note: For women/men aged 100 and over: data prior to 2001 are 1st January; data from 2001
onwards are mid-year
For women/men aged 90 and over: data prior to 1980 are 1st January; data from 1980 onwards
are mid-year
Changes in survival among the oldest old
The accelerating growth of the oldest population in England and Wales
over the twentieth and early twenty first centuries is mainly a result of rapid
improvements in mortality at older ages. However it is also attributable to
increased births a century before and the sharp decline in mortality at ages
from childhood up to age 80.11 Changes in mortality can be assessed using
mortality rates. Survival rates are another particularly effective way of
demonstrating improvements in mortality. Survival rates from birth to age 80
and from age 80 to age 100 for different birth cohorts are shown in Figures
5 and 6. These demographic components are initially examined in isolation.
Their combined effect along with the effect in the number of births a century
before, survival beyond 100 and other factors are presented in Table 2.
Survival from birth to age 80
Generally, mortality rates have decreased for all ages since the end of the
nineteenth century. More recently further decreases have occurred at older
ages.1 This is reflected in the increase in the survival rate from birth to age
80. Figure 5 shows the proportion of males and females who survive or
0
Birth cohort 1851
Age 80
1931
1876
1901
1926
1951
1976
2001
1956
1981
2006
2031
2056
2081
Source: ONS National Population Projections (NPP) actual, historical and projected mortality
database/life table – 2006-based principal population projections for England and Wales
(available on request)
Note: Pre 1961 mortality rates estimated from English Life Tables and Chester Beattie Tables;
1961–2006 actual mortality rates; post 2006 projected mortality rates
Survival from age 80 to age 100
Mortality rates for the oldest ages started to fall steadily during the second
half of the twentieth century. Not only were more people reaching retirement
ages but those who did were surviving longer than their predecessors.1 Figure
6 shows the actual and projected survival from age 80 to age 100 per 100
men and women for cohorts born in England and Wales between 1851 and
2001. For the cohort born in 1851 the likelihood of an 80-year-old reaching
their 100th birthday was very small (estimated survival of less than half a per
cent). For females born in 1901, this likelihood had increased to just over
2 per cent. The difference in survival from age 80 to 100 between men and
women increased during the second half of the twentieth century.
Mortality has improved over the twentieth century and it is projected that it
will continue to improve. Survival from age 80 to age 100 for cohorts born
during the twentieth century is projected to increase steadily. Of the cohort
born at the beginning of the twenty first century (and who reach their 80th
birthday), about 30 per cent are projected to survive from age 80 to age
100. The sex differences in survival at this very old age are smallest for the
11
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
females born in 1876, compared with those born in 1851, also represents
a larger component of the increase in centenarians than corresponding
increases in survival seen for the 1901 cohort when compared with
the 1876 cohort. This is more apparent for males than females, and is
supported by the faster pace of increase in survival from birth to age 80,
seen for males born in 1851 as opposed to 1876 (Figure 5).
Survival (per cent) from age 80 to age 100.
Cohorts born in England and Wales between
1851 and 1901
Figure 6
30
Projected
Survival, per cent
25
Improvement in survival at the oldest ages (survival from age 80 to age
100) is greater among men than among women in the period 1976 to 2001.
It has to be noted that for both men and women, increases in survival
of the oldest old between 1976 and 2001 are the result of accumulated
improvements over previous years. The ratio of improvement in survival
beyond 100 seems to be constant from 1951 to 2001. While we are not
seeing rapid improvements in the survival beyond age 100, continued small
improvements may call into question the belief that somewhere above 100
years there is a maximum lifespan which remains fixed. 14
20
15
Female
10
Male
5
0
Birth cohort 1851
1876
1901
1926
1951
1976
2001
Age 80
1931
1956
1981
2006
2031
2056
2081
Age 100
1951
1976
2001
2026
2051
2076
2101
Source: ONS National Population Projections (NPP) actual, historical and projected mortality
database/life table – 2006-based principal population projections for England and Wales
(available on request)
Note: Pre 1961 mortality rates estimated from English Life Tables and Chester Beattie Tables;
1961–2006 actual mortality rates; post 2006 projected mortality rates
Long-term assumptions for the 2006-based national projections are available from the
Government Actuary’s Department.13
The projected demographic components of centenarian increase suggest
that the contribution of improvements in survival at the oldest ages
(survival from age 80 to 100) is set to increase. The greatest increases
will be seen amongst men born during the first quarter of the twenty first
century. Also expected to show a slight increase are the demographic
components ‘other reasons’, particularly amongst men. However, for the
reasons explained previously, care should be taken in its interpretation.
Table 2
cohorts born between 1920 and 1930. This difference is expected to increase
slightly for cohorts born after 1930 and is then expected to remain constant.
Demographic components contributing to actual and
projected increase in male and female centenarians
in England and Wales, 1951 to 2051
Demographic component
Combined effect of demographic components
Estimates of the contribution of each of the demographic components to
the rapid increase in centenarians seen between 1951 and 1996 have been
published previously.11 Table 2 presents an update using a similar method.
It shows the contribution of the demographic components to the increase
in centenarians for the 50 year period 1951 to 2001, and the two 25-year
periods 1951–1976 and 1976–2001. It also includes the contribution of the
demographic components to the projected increase in centenarians for the
period 2001–2051, and the two 25-year periods 2001–2026 and 2026–2051.
Therefore, it allows differences in the drivers of actual and projected
centenarian numbers over the period to be seen more clearly. The
components analysed are the number of births and the survival of
these birth cohorts to age 80, survival from age 80 to age 100, the ratio
of survival beyond the age of 100 and ‘other reasons’. The method
is approximate. For example, it uses as an indicator of the effect of
births the ratio of births around the year of those aged 100 (births in
1851, 1876, 1901, 1926 and 1951), whereas clear differences in birth
numbers in the previous years also contribute. Care should be taken in
the interpretation of the component ‘other reasons’ as this element is a
calculated residual. It will reflect some real reasons not captured by the
other components, such as the effects of war deaths, and of migration, but
it will also capture the effect of the errors in approximations in the other
components. The effect of the demographic components on the increase
in centenarians is multiplicative.
There was a 14-fold increase in male centenarians and a 23-fold increase
in female centenarians over the last 50 years of the twentieth century.
Between 1951 and 2001 the demographic components that most
contributed to the increase of both male and female centenarians were
improved survival from birth to age 80 and improved survival from age
80 to 100. The relative growth in the number of births between 1851 and
1876 was greater than the relative increase between 1876 and 1901. This
contributed to the number of births being a relatively larger component of
the increase in centenarians between 1951 and 1976, than for the period
1976 to 2001. Increased survival from birth to age 80 among males and
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
12
Period of time (years)
1951–
1976
1976–
2001
Period of time (years)
1951–
2001
2001 to
2026
2026–
2051
2001–
2051
Male
Number of births
1.4
1.1
1.6
0.8
1.0
0.8
Survival from birth to age 80
1.5
1.2
1.9
2.1
1.8
3.7
18.2
Survival age 80 to 100
2.0
2.8
5.6
5.7
3.2
Ratio of survival beyond 100
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.6
Other reasons
1.0
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.1
1.7
Increase in centenarians
4.8
2.8
13.5
16.6
8.4
138.7
Female
Number of births
1.4
1.1
1.6
0.8
1.0
0.7
Survival from birth to age 80
1.6
1.5
2.5
1.5
1.4
2.1
Survival age 80 to 100
2.4
2.4
5.8
2.7
2.9
7.7
Ratio of survival beyond 100
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.5
Other reasons
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.3
Increase in centenarians
6.0
3.9
23.2
4.0
6.0
23.7
Source: Office for National Statistics
Note: Period 1951–2001 – actual number of births and mortality rates; period 2001–2051,
actual number of births and mortality rates up to 2006; projected from 2007 onwards.
Life expectancy at age 80
There is evidence that increases in the population of centenarians over the
twentieth century were largely a result of increases in survival between
age 80 and 100 and birth to age 80 as well as increases in the size of the
birth cohorts available to survive. The increases in survival from birth to
age 80, combined with the increases in survival from age 80 to 100 seen
over the second half of the twentieth century, are expected to continue.
This suggests that considerable extension to length of life has been and
will continue to be achieved at very old ages.
Table 3 presents the life expectancy at age 80 for cohorts born between
1901 and 1961 and the estimated and projected population aged 80 between
1981 and 2041. Life expectancy at age 80 for the cohort of females born
in England and Wales at the beginning of the twentieth century was about
eight years. The estimated mid-year population of females aged 80 years in
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
1981 was 152 thousand.15 The cohort of females born in England and Wales
in 1961 is expected to live, on average, for a further 13 years after their 80th
birthday in 2041. The population of females aged 80 in 2041 is projected to
be twice the size of that of the same age in 1901.
Remaining life expectancy at age 80 for cohorts of men born during the
twentieth century has increased and is expected to increase at a greater pace
than that for women. Life expectancy at age 80 for the cohort of men born
in 1901 was six years but will be 12 years for the cohort born in 1961. The
population of men aged 80 in 1901 was 74 thousand, that is, half that of
women of the same age. The population of men aged 80 years projected to
be alive in 2041 is 3.5 times larger than that in 1901. The older population
is growing and is projected to continue to grow. In addition, expectation of
life at older ages is expected to continue to increase.
This is expected because the estimates are constrained to mid-year
estimates of the population aged 90 and over, which are based upon the
Census counts aged forward and adjusted using the cohort component
method. The small difference can be partly explained because the Census
reference date is 29 April 2001, whereas the ONS mid year estimates are
for 30 June 2001 and also because of subsequent adjustments made to
population estimates. 17,18
Table 4
Age group
Birth cohort
Life expectancy at age 80 and estimated and
projected population aged 80 by sex, England
and Wales
Year aged 80
Life expectancy at age 80
(years)
Male
Female
Male
1901
1981
6
8
74
152
1911
1991
7
8
96
172
ONS estimates
2001 Census
Relative difference ONS
estimates and Census
Female
number
Male
number
Female
number
Male
per cent
Female per
cent
77,110
263,070
75,669
260,058
2
1
90–94
66,390
207,680
62,275
202,905
7
2
95–99
10,000
49,420
11,656
50,331
–14
–2
720
5,970
1,738
6,822
–59
–12
100 and over
Population aged 80
(in thousands)
2001 Census and ONS estimates of population by
age group and sex, England and Wales, 2001
Male
number
90 and over
Table 3
S u m m e r 2008
Source: Office for National Statistics
Note: Negative relative differences: ONS estimates are smaller than Census counts
Female
1921
2001
8
9
127
202
1931
2011
9
11
136
180
1941
2021
11
12
157
187
1951
2031
12
13
207
244
1961
2041
12
13
252
295
Source: Office for National Statistics
Note: Population aged 80 from 1981 to 2001 are mid-year estimates and are available from
the NS- website.15
Population aged 80 from 2011 to 2041 are ONS National Population Projections 2006-based
projections available from GAD website.16
Comparisons of ONS estimates of the oldest old
with other data sources
In September 2007 ONS released experimental estimates of the ‘very
elderly’ (including centenarians) for England and Wales for midyear 2002 to mid-year 2006.7 The estimates were produced using the
Kannisto-Thatcher (KT) method.8 The KT method has previously been
used to provide estimates of the population at older ages for national
population projections and in the calculation of age specific mortality
rates for national life tables.
The series of estimates up to and including 2001 were not released
because of concerns over the differences between the Census counts
of the population aged 90 and over and the corresponding estimates.
The greatest difference was found for male centenarians.
Results from further validation conducted to understand the differences
between the 2001 Census counts and ONS estimates are presented
in Table 4 below. Comparable sources of population data are scarce,
particularly for older ages. However, comparisons have been made
between the ONS 2001 estimates of population aged 90 and over in
England and Wales with corresponding estimates from the ONS -LS.
Data on correspondence from HM the Queen or the Secretary of State for
Work and Pensions to individuals aged 100 years (Box 4) were also used
to validate the estimates for 2001 and 2006.
2001 Census and ONS estimates
The differences between the estimates are relatively small for ages 90 and
over (Table 4).
The Census count of male centenarians (1,738) was 2.4 times greater
than the ONS estimate (720). It is recognised that for any census age
distributions at advanced ages, those aged 85 and over can suffer from
serious reporting problems, with age exaggeration in older ages generally
considered to be common. Most reporting problems have been found
among reported ages of 95 and over.19 Previous publications have shown
that the numbers of centenarians recorded in England and Wales were
overestimated in the 1971, 1981 and 1991 Censuses.20,21,22 It seems likely
the same has occurred with the 2001 Census at the oldest ages.
2001 Census, ONS-LS and ONS estimates
Data from the ONS-LS were used for comparisons with the 2001 Census
and ONS estimates of population aged 90 and over. Age groups 90 to 94
and 95 and over were used for these comparisons.
The ONS-LS links Census and vital events data for a one per cent sample of
the England and Wales population from 1971 onwards.23 The longitudinal
nature of this dataset makes it possible to check birthdates given by members
across censuses and any vital event registrations. This is useful because
analysis of the ONS-LS shows that often birthdates and corresponding ages
given for members are inconsistent across censuses and also vital registrations.
ONS-LS data have been selected for members enumerated in the 1991
and 2001 Censuses. The selection method was carried out to ensure a
robust estimate of the subgroup of LS members aged 90 and over in
2001. Only LS members with a consistent age reported across previous
censuses and vital event registrations were selected. Box 3 gives details
of the ONS–LS and the selection rules.
The results indicate that there was some mis-reporting of age at the oldest
ages, as the ONS-LS estimates are consistently lower than the respective
Census counts (Figure 7). It is also possible that multiple enumeration
has occurred at these very old ages in the Census. ONS-LS data correct
for multiple enumeration and LS members are not imputed.
The results show that ONS estimates for males and females aged 90 to
94 are slightly higher than both Census counts and ONS-LS members
enumerated using the selection method described in Box 3. While small
differences are likely because of the different reference dates (Census and
ONS-LS 29 April 2001, ONS estimates 30 June 2001), there does seem
to be some evidence that KT method may be over-estimating slightly the
population aged in their early 90s. Proportionally the overestimation is
small, as the ONS experimental estimates are 3 per cent larger than the
Census and 11 per cent larger than the ONS LS estimate.
13
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Box three
ONS Longitudinal Study and selection method used to obtain robust estimates of LS members aged 90 and over
enumerated in the 1991 and 2001 Censuses
The ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) contains linked census and vital event data for one per cent of the population of England and Wales. Information from the
1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses is linked with life events information (i.e. members’ birth, death and cancer registration). Sample selection is based on
birth dates, using four dates (day and month) to create a sample which is representative of the population of England and Wales.
The selection method used in the present study to estimate LS members aged 90 and over enumerated in the 2001 Census selects LS members enumerated
at the 1991 Census and those entering/re-entering the study between the 1991 and 2001 Census Days. Age is calculated as age on Census day in 1991. All
dates of birth stated at any vital event or census enumeration were examined. Where dates of birth differed the following rules were used to decide the most
likely age at Census Day in 1991.
1. Where dates of birth differed but calculated ages (in years) did not, no change was made.
2. Where two different calculated ages were generated but one was more frequent (for example, three censuses gave corresponding ages but a death
registration presented a different age), the age occurring most frequently was selected.
3. Where two different calculated ages were generated but both occurred the same number of times and the difference between ages was three years or
lower, the minimum age was selected.
4. Where three different calculated ages were generated but one was more frequent than the combined frequencies of the other two (for example, the same
age was given at three censuses but a death and cancer registration gave different ages) the age occurring most frequently was selected.
5. Where three different calculated ages were generated but one occurred the same number of times as the other two combined (e.g. same age at two census
but differed at death and cancer registration) and the maximum difference between all ages was three years or less the minimum age was selected.
6. Where more than three ages were generated or in the case of rules 3 and 5 above the age difference was greater than three years the records for that LS
member were excluded from the analysis.
Also included in the selection were LS members who had not been accounted for in the 1991 Census and those who had entered the LS sample in 2001 but
had no previous LS history. These included both LS members traced and untraced (with no record) in the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR)
computer system. The selection method described above was applied for the selection of these LS members.
The ONS-LS estimates shown in Figure 7 have been calculated by multiplying the sample figures by the sampling fraction (100/1.09). These estimates
represent the population aged 90 and over as in the 2001 Census after adjusting for mis-reported age. They are subject to sampling error. The ONS-LS
estimates refer to 29 April 2001 (Census Day).
Figure 7
ONS experimental, 2001 Census and ONS-LS estimated population, ages 90–94 and 95 and over for males and females in
England and Wales
MALES
FEMALES
70
210
ONS estimates 2001
60
Census 2001
ONS Longitudinal Study
40
30
90
60
10
30
90–94
95 and over
Age group
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
14
ONS Longitudinal Study
120
20
0
Census 2001
150
Thousands
Thousands
50
ONS estimates 2001
180
0
90–94
95 and over
Age group
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
The grouped ONS estimate for males aged 95 and over is in reasonable
agreement with the ONS-LS estimate. The census count of males aged
95 and over is higher than both ONS and ONS-LS estimates. For this
age group, the relative difference between ONS and ONS-LS estimates
is smaller than the relative difference between ONS estimates and the
census count.
Table 5
ONS estimates of the population aged 100 and the
number of birthday messages from HM the Queen
or the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions to
residents aged 100, males and females, England and
Wales, 2001 and 2006.
Year
Birthday messages from HM the Queen and Secretary of
State for Work and Pensions
ONS estimates of people aged 100 years in 2001 and 2006 were
compared with the number of birthday messages from HM the Queen or
the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions to residents in England and
Wales. Box 4 gives details of the data source.
Box four
Birthday messages from HM the Queen and the
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
Data on the number of congratulatory messages sent by HM the
Queen or the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions to mark a 100th
birthday during 2001 and 2006, were used to compare with the ONS
estimates for age 100.
Residents in Great Britain are entitled to receive a congratulatory
100th birthday card from HM the Queen or the Secretary of State (for
non-British nationals), if they accept a visit from the Pensions Service to
confirm their birthday. However, if they don’t wish to receive a card or
are not on the Pension Service list and do not request a card themselves,
they will not be counted in the dataset.
The data used for the comparison referred to birthday messages sent to
residents in England, Wales and Scotland. An adjustment was made to
estimate the population receiving a birthday message in England and
Wales only. For 2006 the estimated population aged 100 in Scotland
was subtracted from the birthday messages sent to individuals aged 100
in Great Britain. For 2001, the adjustment was based on the proportion
of individuals aged 100 out of the population aged 90 and over seen in
Scotland in 2006.24
The numbers of birthday messages refer to those who have survived
to exact age 100 in a calendar year. The ONS experimental estimates
relate to the population aged between 100 and 101, that is 100.5,
resident in England and Wales at mid-year (30 June). Given the
high mortality rate at this age we can assume that some of those
receiving birthday messages will not be alive at the mid-year point
and therefore, will not be included in the estimate of the population.
An adjustment was made to the number of messages issued by
applying half the cohort mortality rate to the numbers of messages
issued in each calendar year (adjusted estimates shown in brackets in
Table 5) to make them more comparable with the ONS experimental
estimates. The comparison in Table 5 shows that ONS estimates are
in good agreement with the numbers of birthday messages issued.
S u m m e r 2008
ONS estimates
Birthday messages*
Male
Female
Male
2001
347
2,524
476 (392)
3,119 (2,584)
Female
2006
527
3,219
630 (521)
3,710 (3,115)
*in brackets: number of birthday messages adjusted for subsequent deaths by applying half
the probability of dying between exact age 100 and exact age 101
Sources: ONS estimates, birthday messages from HM the Queen or the Secretary of State for
Work and Pensions, Department for Work and Pensions.
Note: Birthday messages issued to residents in Great Britain. An adjustment was made to
estimate the numbers in England and Wales only. For details of the method see Box 4.
Key findings
•• The fastest increase in numbers of centenarians was seen
between 1940 and 1980.
•• Increases in survival between age 80 and 100 have contributed
most to the increase in centenarians seen between 1951 and 2001.
•• The large cohorts born in the second half of the nineteenth century
contributed to the fast increase in centenarians seen between 1951
and 2001.
•• Survival rates between age 80 and 100 are projected to increase;
the greatest increases are projected for men born during the first
quarter of the twenty first century.
•• The ONS–Longitudinal Study provides evidence that supports the
ONS estimates of population aged 95 and over.
•• The number of congratulatory messages sent by HM the Queen
or the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions to mark a 100th
birthday during 2001 and 2006 support the ONS estimates of
population age 100 years in those years.
Conclusions
This article has reported on the increasing number of the oldest old in
England and Wales seen during the twentieth century, and has highlighted
that this trend is set to continue over the next few decades. It has explained
the main components driving this change and also provided an indication
of their relative contribution to population change at the oldest ages.
The analysis has shown that the rapid increase seen in the population of
centenarians during the second half of the twentieth century was driven
by the increase in births in the second half of the nineteenth century, the
decrease in mortality in infancy and childhood which began at the end
of the nineteenth century, and the substantial increases in survival from
age 80 to 100 experienced by these cohorts. The decomposition of the
demographic components showed that the decline in mortality beyond
age 80 contributed most to the increase in the population of centenarians.
The analysis presented in this article shows that the cohorts born in 1951
and 1961 are expected to live about 12 years after their 80th birthday. By
2031 the population aged 80 and over in England and Wales is estimated
to be 4.8 million; and the population aged 85 and over is estimated to
be just over 2.5 million.4 This is due to increasing survival at the oldest
ages which is projected to continue during the twenty first century. In
addition, the numbers of people aged 85 and over are projected to rise
further between 2031 and 2035, and between 2041 and 2057 because of
the increased numbers of births 85 years previously.
15
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Robust estimates of the population at very old ages and information on
their health and social characteristics are of increasing importance. They
will provide the base for planning of health care and social services. The
growing importance of estimates and information for this increasingly
diverse age group has been addressed earlier in a cross-government
strategy report.25 This has been emphasised by non-governmental
organisations such as Age Concern in their recent report. 26
ONS has recently released experimental estimates of population aged 90
and over by sex in England and Wales for years 2002 to 2006. This article
includes the previously unpublished estimates of population aged 90 and
over by sex for 2001. It also presents further, more recent validation of
these estimates with estimates from other data sources.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to acknowledge the assistance of colleagues within the
Longitudinal Study Development and Demographic Analysis Branches,
and also the reviewers.
References
1. Kannisto V (1999) The advancing frontier of survival: life table for
old age. Monograph on population aging 3, Odense University Press.
Available at:
www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Books/Monograph3/start.htm
2. Harper S (2006) Ageing societies, Hodder Arnold: New York, USA.
3. Smallwood S and Chamberlain J (2005) Replacement fertility, what
has it been and what does it mean? Population Trends 119, pp 16–27.
4. Bray H (2008) 2006-based national population projections for the
UK and constituent countries. Population Trends 131, pp 8–18.
(2006-based national population projections data available at:
www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population )
5. Tomassini C (2005) The demographic characteristics of the oldest
old in the United Kingdom. Population Trends 120, pp 15–22.
6. Tomassini C (2007) The oldest old in Great Britain: change over the
last 20 years. Population Trends 123, pp 32–39.
7. Office for National Statistics (2007) Mid-2002 to Mid-2006
Estimates of the very elderly (including centenarians). Available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=9728&More=Y
8. Thatcher R, Kannisto V and Andreev K (2002) The survivor ratio
method for estimating numbers at high ages. Demography 6.
Available at: www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/1/6-1.pdf
9. Office for National Statistics (2005) Making a population estimate
in England and Wales. National Statistics Methodological Series No.
34. Available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/Making_
PopulationEstimate.pdf
10. Office for National Statistics (1987) Birth statistics: 1837–1983.
Series FM1, no 13.
11. Thatcher R (1999) The demographic of centenarians in England and
Wales. Population Trends 96, pp 5–12.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
16
12. Office for National Statistics (1997) The health of adult Britain
1841–1994, The Stationery Office: London.
13. Office for National Statistics/Government Actuary’s Department
(2007) Long-term assumptions for the 2006-based national
projections, available at:
www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/population/2006/methodology/
assumptions.asp
14. Fries F F (1980) Aging, natural death and the compression of
morbidity. New Engl J Med 303, pp 130–135.
15. Office for National Statistics (2003) England and Wales; single year
of age and sex; estimated resident population based on the 1981
Census; Mid-1981 Population Estimates, available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=10078&image.
x=23&image.y=11
16. Office for National Statistics/Government Actuary’s Department
(2007) National population projections. Available at:
www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/population/2006/engwal/
wew06singleyear.xls
17. Office for National Statistics (2005) England and Wales estimated
resident population by single year of age and sex: Mid-2001
population estimates. Available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=9461&image.
x=20&image.y=10
18. Office for National Statistics (2005) England and Wales estimated
resident population by single year of age and sex; revised in light
of the local authority population studies: Mid-2001 population
estimates. Available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=13114&image.
x=25&image.y=9
19. Hobbs F (2004) ‘Age and sex composition’, in Siegel JS and
Swandon DA (ed), The methods and materials of demography.
Elsevier Academic Press: London, pp 125–173.
20. Thatcher R (1981) Centenarians. Population Trends 25, pp 11–14.
21. Thatcher R (1984) Centenarians: 1981 estimate. Population Trends
38, pp 12–13.
22. Thatcher R (1994) Centenarians: 1991 estimates. Population Trends
75, pp 30–32.
23. Blackwell L, Lynch K, Smith J and Goldblatt P (2003) ONS
Longitudinal Study 1971–2001: Completeness of Census Linkage.
Series LS no 10. Office for National Statistics: London.
24. General Register Office for Scotland (2007) Record Number of
Centenarians in Scotland. Available at:
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/press/2007-news/record-number-ofcentenarians-in-scotland.html
25. Department for Work and Pensions (2005) Opportunity age. Meeting
the challenges of ageing in the 21st century. HM Government:
London. Available at:
www.dwp.gov.uk/publications/dwp/2005/opportunity_age/
opportunity-age-olume1.pdf
26. Age Concern Reports (2008) The age agenda 2008: Public policy
and older people. Astral House: London. Available at:
www.ageconcern.org.uk/AgeConcern/Documents/AA_2008_Report.pdf
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
132
Sum
Wi
n tm
e re r2007
2008
Age differences
at marriage and
divorce
Ben Wilson and Steve Smallwood
Office for National Statistics
This article explores the age difference of
marrying and divorcing couples, calculated
by subtracting the wife’s age from the
husband’s. Age difference is of interest
in the study of families and partnership
behaviour. It is also important because of
its link with broader socio-demographic
changes, such as population ageing, delayed
fertility and the provision of care.
The main finding is that between 1963 and
2005, the distribution of age differences
for all marriages is very similar in each year
to the distribution of age differences for
the subset of couples who married in that
year, but have since divorced. While there
is some evidence of small variations in the
proportion of marriages that end in divorce
by age difference, there does not seem to be
evidence of a strong association.
Introduction
Partnership is important in terms of many social, economic and
demographic characteristics, such as household composition or the
provision of care at older ages. The majority of demographic and
sociological analysis examines people as separate units. However, when
exploring partnership behaviour it is important to go beyond this and
examine both of the partners as well as the interaction between their
characteristics. Age appears in most analyses of partnership behaviour,
but often the ages of partners are not compared. Variations in age
differences for partnership formation and dissolution may be of interest
in themselves in understanding partnership change, but age difference
effects may be relevant to the interpretation of any other statistics
involving age and partnership status.
Analysis of age difference is therefore important to policy makers, social
scientists, and anyone seeking to understand society and the family. Any
change in age differences over time will influence the age structure of
the married and unmarried population. This relates to marriage markets
and the population available to marry or at risk of divorce in the future. It
also has a relationship with the population available to form any type of
partnership, including cohabitation.
Previous articles in Population Trends provide a thorough discussion
of age differences at marriage in England and Wales.1,2 There are also
a number of detailed research studies relating to the topic.3 Previous
research shows that there are variations in the pattern of marital age
differences for different marital statuses (prior to marriage). Age
differences also vary by sex and age at marriage. The first part of
this article illustrates and discusses these findings using distribution
charts. This gives an indication of how age differences at marriage
17
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
S u m m e r 2 0 08
have changed over time. The remainder of the article builds upon
previous work by looking at age differences at divorce. This includes
a comparison of age differences at marriage and divorce to consider
whether marital age difference has any association with likelihood
of divorce.
This article uses marriage and divorce data for England and Wales from
1963 to 2005.4 The article is based on all marriage and divorce events
recorded over this period rather than a sample survey, which means
that conclusions are not subject to sampling error. Importantly, a direct
comparison can be made between aggregate marriages and divorce
because the year of marriage is recorded when couples divorce. However
the analysis is unable to take account of migration or events that took
place outside England and Wales.5 To illustrate the general findings
clearly, two or three years of marriage are selected and compared. The
results may not therefore be completely representative of intervening
trends, and do not cover trends in age difference at marriage prior to
1963. Data has been collated for each marriage cohort since 1963 and
some discussion is provided where information is known from other
work, or from this dataset. Throughout this article, age differences are
calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s.6
Marital age differences
Figure 1
16
12
When looking beyond overall age differences it is important to consider
data separately by wives and husbands.12 Separating the data by sex is
particularly appropriate when considering the previous marital status of
marrying couples. This is because both partners may or may not have the
same previous marital status. For example, a divorced woman may marry
a single (never-married), widowed or divorced man.
One of the reasons for examining previous marital status is because of
recent increases in the proportion of remarriages. Table 1 shows that
between 1963 and 2003 the proportion of marriages involving divorcees
increased by over 20 percentage points. Alongside this change, there has
been a drop of almost 20 percentage points in the proportion of marriages
to single individuals (slightly less for men compared with women).
Figure 2 shows the distribution of age differences for women according
to their marital status before marriage. The change noted in Figure 1
between 1963 and 2003 is apparent in the difference between single
brides, where the distribution of age difference is very similar to the
distribution for all marriages. This is unsurprising given that the majority
of marriages involve single brides, 90 per cent in 1963 and 71 per cent in
2003 (Table 1). On the other hand, brides who were previously widowed
or divorced do not show any substantial change in age differences
between 1963 and 2003. This is of particular interest given the recent
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
18
husband older
Marriages 2003
Marriages 1983
Marriages 1963
10
8
5
4
2
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown, but are very uncommon
7
Marital age differences and previous marital
status
wife older
14
Table 1
As suggested in previous research, there is a contrast between the
relative stability of the mean age difference and the substantial
variability in age difference distributions. This is also illustrated
by Figure 1, which shows the distribution of age differences for
all marriages in three different years: 1963, 1983 and 2003.8,9 For
the purpose of this report it is worth highlighting the notable shift
in the distribution of age differences over the last forty years.10
Changes in the mean age difference conceal this shift to a more
varied distribution of age differences (and smaller frequency of
the most common values) for recent marriages. This is also shown
by calculating, as a measure of spread, the standard deviations
of each of the distributions. The standard deviations for the three
years 1963, 1983 and 2003 are 4.8, 5.4 and 6.3 years age difference
respectively.11
Distribution of age differences at marriage
(proportions)
England and Wales
Proportion (%)
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
Proportion of marriages by sex and previous marital
status, England and Wales (percentages)
1963
2003
difference1
Marital status
Men
Women
Men
Women
Men
Women
Single
88.6
89.6
70.8
70.1
–17.8
–19.5
Widowed
5.3
4.6
2.2
2.3
–3.2
–2.3
Divorced
6.1
5.7
27.1
27.5
21.0
21.8
1 Difference in percentage points between 2003 and 1963
increase in remarriages. It suggests that there are two main reasons for
the changing pattern in overall age differences. The first is the change in
the distribution of age differences for single women. The second is the
increase in the proportion of remarriages for divorced women. The age
difference profile is broadly unchanged for this group, but they remain
more likely than single women to marry a man of a similar age, so
their increased proportion will weight the overall age difference profile
towards their distribution.
Is this also true for men? Figure 3 suggests that the answer is not simple
(Figure 3 is the same as Figure 2, but for marrying men). There is a
similar change in the distribution of age differences for single men. This
suggests that changes in the age difference distribution for single men have
contributed to the overall change in age differences in the same way as
single women. However, when it comes to the increase in the proportion of
remarriages for divorced men, the influence upon overall age differences is
not the same as for divorced women. To begin with, the distribution of age
differences for divorced men is less similar to the overall distribution than
the distribution for single men. Also, there is another difference between
men and women shown in Figure 3. Between 1963 and 2003, the most
common (mode) age difference for divorced men has fallen from husbands
who are five years older in 1963 to husbands who are two years older in
2003. This shift suggests that divorced men may be making an additional
contribution to the overall age difference profile.
Table 2 is similar to Table 1, but shows the proportion of marriages in
1963 and 2003 by combinations of marital status. It highlights the fact
that there has been an almost equivalent rise in the proportion of single
women marrying divorced men as for single men marrying divorced
women. So in terms of weighting, the increased contribution of marriages
where one member is divorced and one member is single has been similar
for males and females.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Figure 2
Distribution of female age differences at marriage
by previous marital status (proportions)
England and Wales
Figure 3
16
wife older
14
8
5
husband older
Bride spinster 2003
Bride spinster 1963
Bride widow 2003
Bride widow 1963
Bride divorced 2003
Bride divorced 1963
12
10
8
5
4
4
2
2
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
wife older
14
Proportion (%)
Proportion (%)
10
Distribution of male age differences at marriage by
previous marital status (proportions)
England and Wales
16
12
S u m m e r 2008
15
0
–20
20
Age difference (years)
husband older
Groom bachelor 2003
Groom bachelor 1963
Groom widower 2003
Groom widower 1963
Groom divorced 2003
Groom divorced 1963
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Marital age differences and age at marriage
with 1.0 years in 2003. But for brides aged between 30 and 39, the mean
rose from 2.8 in 1963 to 3.9 in 2003. This increase aligns with the increased
proportion of marriages for brides under 30 where the husband is more than
ten years older, from 8 per cent in 1963 to 28 per cent in 2003. As for 1963,
comparing the distributions for brides under 30 and brides over 30, the
distributions are more spread for brides over 30. The standard deviation for
brides aged between 20 and 29 is 5.2 years, whereas the equivalent figure
for brides aged between 30 and 39 is 6.3 years. Despite the difference, this
suggests that the distributions have a more similar spread in 2003.
Previous research has shown that marital age difference varies according
to a partner’s age.13 Figures 4a, 4b, 5a and 5b show this variation for
marriages in 1963 and 2003. These figures are also split by sex.
Table 2
Groom
Proportion of marriages by previous marital status
of bride and groom (percentages)
Bride
1963
2003
difference1
Single
Single
84.1
59.3
–24.8
Single
Widow
1.3
0.5
–0.9
Single
Divorced
3.1
10.3
7.2
Widower
Single
1.9
0.4
–1.5
Widower
Widow
2.6
0.7
–1.9
Widower
Divorced
0.9
1.2
0.3
Divorced
Single
3.6
11.0
7.4
Divorced
Widow
0.7
1.0
0.3
Divorced
Divorced
1.8
15.5
13.8
1 Difference in percentage points between 2003 and 1963
Before looking at the distribution of age differences, it is worth
considering how the distribution of marriages has changed by age at
marriage. Table 3 shows that there has been a considerable increase
in the proportion of marriages at older ages between 1963 and 2003.
The change reflects for the most part the combination of delays in first
marriages and increases in the proportions of remarriages (see Tables
1 and 2).
Figure 4a shows the marital age difference for brides in 1963. In this
year, over 84 per cent of brides were under 30. Compared with other age
groups, the distributions for brides aged under 20 and between 20 and 29
are slightly skewed towards older husbands. Comparing the distributions
for brides under 30 and brides over 30, the distributions are more spread
for brides over 30. The standard deviation for brides aged between 20
and 29 is 4.2 years age difference whereas the equivalent figure for brides
aged between 30 and 39 is 7.7 years.
Comparing Figure 4a and Figure 4b shows that for brides under 30 the
2003 distributions have smaller peak values than in 1963. Comparing 2003
with 1963, most of the distributions appear to have shifted slightly towards
wives being older than their husbands, but caution should be exercised when
interpreting the charts. The mean age difference has fallen for brides over
30. In 1963 it was 2.8 years for brides aged between 40 and 49, compared
Table 3
Proportion of marriages by age at marriage of bride
and groom (percentages)
Age
1963
2003
difference1
Men
Women
Men
Women
Men
7.0
27.4
0.7
2.6
–6.4
–24.8
20–29
70.3
56.9
33.8
44.3
–36.5
–12.6
26.4
Under 20
Women
30–39
12.0
7.3
39.7
33.7
27.7
40–49
4.6
4.1
15.0
12.4
10.5
8.3
50–59
3.1
2.6
7.3
5.2
4.1
2.6
60 or over
2.9
1.7
3.5
1.8
0.6
0.1
1 Difference in percentage points between 2003 and 1963
Figure 5a shows that in 1963 grooms under 20 tend to be of a similar
age to their brides, whereas those between 20 and 29 tend to be older
(by approximately two or three years on average). Interestingly, there is
a distinctive distribution for grooms between 30 and 39-years-old, who
tend to be much older than their brides (with over 50 per cent marrying
women between four to 11 years younger). By 2003 this changes, with
the distribution for grooms aged 30 to 39 being more similar to those
for other age groups (Figure 5b). The distributions for grooms in 2003
show the younger age groups are closer to zero age difference and have a
smaller tail to the right (fewer older husbands). This pattern seems to stop
once grooms are over 40.
The data suggest that trends in age at marriage have affected marital age
differences. The distribution of age differences for men and women who
marry at older ages are more spread out (they have a larger variance).
Consequently, increases in mean age at marriage over the last forty years,
due to delays in first marriage and increasing remarriage, are one factor
in the overall distribution of age differences becoming more varied.
This change in the overall variance is also attributable to shifts in the
distributions within age-groups.
19
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
Figure 4a
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Distribution of marital age differences by age at
marriage, females 1963
England and Wales
Figure 4b
England and Wales
30
30
wife older
25
wife older
husband older
25
Under 20
20–29
30–39
40–49
50–59
60 or over
20
15
Proportion (%)
Proportion (%)
Distribution of marital age differences by age at
marriage, females 2003
10
20
15
Under 20
20–29
30–39
40–49
50–59
60 or over
10
5
5
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
0
–20
20
–15
–10
Age difference (years)
Figure 5a
0
5
10
15
20
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Distribution of marital age differences by age at
marriage, males 1963
Figure 5b
Distribution of marital age differences by age at
marriage, males 2003
England and Wales
England and Wales
30
30
wife older
25
wife older
husband older
25
Under 20
20–29
30–39
40–49
50–59
60 or over
20
15
Proportion (%)
Proportion (%)
–5
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
10
20
15
husband older
Under 20
20–29
30–39
40–49
50–59
60 or over
10
5
5
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Figure 6
England and Wales
16
wife older
12
husband older
Divorces 2003
Divorces 1983
Divorces 1963
10
8
5
4
2
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Distribution of age differences at divorce, by year
of divorce (proportions)
14
0
–20
Age difference (years)
Age difference (years)
Proportion (%)
husband older
20
Age differences at divorce
For a particular couple, their age difference at divorce is the same as age
difference at marriage. However, when considering the total population
marrying or divorcing in a particular year, the patterns of age differences
will be different because the two groups of people (the married and the
divorcing) are different.
Figure 6 shows the distribution of age differences for the divorces
that occurred in 1963 (32,052 divorces), 1983 (147,479) and 2003
(153,490). Unlike the equivalent chart for marriages (Figure 1), it
does not suggest a straightforward transition between 1963 and 2003
because the distribution for 1963 lies in between the distributions for
1983 and 2003. The reason for this is because of the composition of
divorces in the respective years, and one of the principal aspects of the
composition is the duration of marriages that end in divorce.14 Duration
of marriage relates to marriage cohorts. Hence, in order to understand
Figure 1, it is appropriate to reorganise the data into marriage cohorts.
This then allows a direct comparison with the marriages data shown
previously.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Figure 7
S u m m e r 2008
Distribution of age differences at divorce (proportions) by year of marriage1
England and Wales
16
wife older
husband older
14
Proportion (%)
Divorces: marriage
cohort 1963
12
Marriages 1963
10
Divorces: marriage
cohort 1983
Marriages 1983
Divorces: marriage
cohort 2003
8
Marriages 2003
5
4
2
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s. Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown.
1 The distributions for all marriages are also shown for 1963, 1983 and 2003
Linking age differences at marriage and divorce
It is possible to plot the distribution of divorce age differences by the
year of marriage in which the divorces occurred (marriage cohort). This
is shown in Figure 7, which uses the three marriage cohorts examined
previously, 1963, 1983 and 2003. The chart shows the distribution of
age differences for the divorces that have taken place for the marriages
that occurred in the years 1963 (94,102 divorces), 1983 (129,477) and
2003 (5,996). The chart also shows the age distributions of all marriages
in each of these years (also shown in Figure 1). This allows comparison
between the age distribution of all marriages and the distribution of
marriages that have ended in divorce by the end of 2005. As opposed
to Figure 6 (divorces by year of divorce), Figure 7 (divorces by year of
marriage) suggests a transition between 1963 and 2003. The patterns are
similar for both marriages (by year of marriage) and divorces (by year
of marriage).
There is some existing research on age differences at divorce. Some
research using survey data has shown that divorce does vary according
to age difference,15 but there is other survey research that contradicts this
finding.16 Research using the same method (comparing marriages and
divorces by year of marriage for all registered events) has not been found.
However, there is some research of registered events looking at age
difference and divorce. Again, some of this suggests that age difference
is an indicator of likelihood of divorce,17 whereas other research using
registration data suggests no association.18 One other piece of comparable
research used age differences of the married population and divorces
in 1991 in Canada and suggested for that particular period there was a
higher divorce rate for couples with a larger age difference.19
Comparisons such as those in Figure 7 show a close match between
the age distribution of marrying couples and those that subsequently
divorce, but may mask real differences by age disparity. Figure 8 looks
at the proportion of marriages that end in divorce for each individual
age difference. Looking first at marriages that occurred in 1983, the
proportion of marriages that have ended in divorce varies between 31
and 44 per cent. Although it might be argued that there is a difference
between older husbands and older wives for this year, the differences
are not conclusive. For example, 36 per cent of marriages have ended
in divorce for both husbands who are eight years older than wives and
wives that are eight years older than husbands. Looking at 1963, the most
obvious age difference variation appears to be the larger proportion of
marriages ending in divorce where the age difference is small. It might
be argued that this is to be expected given that where there is a large
age difference marriages may be more likely to end due to the death of
a partner. This raises the question as to whether 1983 would suggest a
higher likelihood of divorce for larger age differences if mortality were
taken into account. Given the variability in the results for 1983, where
wives are between 10 and 20 years older than husbands, it is not possible
to draw a decisive conclusion. As expected, given the small amount of
time couples have been married, the proportions ending in divorce are
small for marriages that took place in 2003. Nevertheless, there does not
seem to be much variation between age differences.
Analysis of all marriage cohorts in England and Wales between 1963
and 2003 showed similar results to those shown in Figure 7 and Figure
8. Considering this and the evidence shown in the charts, it appears that
age difference does not show a strong association with likelihood of
divorce.20 Despite this, it is worth considering that the conclusion will
21
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
depend upon which marriage cohort is examined. It is also possible that
associations may exist when additional factors are considered such as
previous marital status and age at marriage.
Figure 8
Proportion of marriages that have ended in divorce
by age difference
England and Wales
80
wife older
Proportion divorced (%)
70
husband older
1963
1983
2003
60
50
likelihood of divorce, even when previous marital status is taken into
consideration. Although Figures 9a and 9b only show results for males,
the equivalent charts for females show similar results. As such, the
distribution of female divorces by year of marriage and previous marital
status are similar to the distributions for female marriages (shown in
Figure 2). The results are also similar for the years not shown. For
example, the distribution of age differences for single males marrying
in 1995 is very similar to the distribution of age differences for single
males who married in 1995 and have since divorced. There is no
substantial trend for the most recent marriage cohorts (such as 2003, as
shown in Figure 9b). This suggests that age difference patterns do not
vary for shorter durations of marriage.
40
Divorces by age at marriage
30
The variation in marital age difference by age at marriage is
shown in Figures 4a, 4b, 5a and 5b. It is possible to compare these
distributions (for marriages by year of marriage and age) with
those for divorces (by year of marriage and age at marriage). This
comparison is shown for females in Figures 10a and 10b for 1963
and 1983 and selected age groups. Again, these charts suggest that
there is very little difference between the age difference distribution
for marriages (in a particular year of marriage) and divorces
(occurring to those who married in the same year). Although data
are not shown for males, for older age groups, or for other years,
this conclusion is broadly similar for all combinations of sex, age
(at marriage) and marriage cohort. There are a few exceptions to this
overall conclusion. Figure 10a suggests that women who married
in 1963 aged between 30 and 39 were more likely to divorce if
they were older than their husbands. For women who married at
those ages in 1983 (Figure 10b) the difference is not as noticeable,
which suggests that more recent cohorts do not show the same
pattern.
20
10
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Divorces by previous marital status
Previous marital status is recorded for both individuals when a couple divorce.
As with the marriage statistics shown above, it is the marital status prior to
marriage. In the case of divorce statistics, it is the marital status prior to the
marriage which is ending in divorce. For example, a previous marital status
of divorced indicates that the divorce being recorded is not an individual’s
first divorce. As for marriages, it is possible to analyse divorces according to
previous marital status. Similar to the last section, this is done by marriage
cohort (year of marriage) as opposed to year of divorce.
Figures 9a and 9b demonstrate that the distributions by previous
marital status show a similar result to those for all marital statuses
combined (Figure 7). In other words, the patterns are similar for both
marriages (by year of marriage) and divorces (by year of marriage).
Again, this suggests that age difference is not strongly associated with
Figure 9a
Distribution of age differences at marriage and
divorce by previous marital status (proportions)
Males – 1983 marriage cohort
To investigate this further, Figure 11 shows similar results to Figure
10b, but for males who were married at older ages in 1983. The numbers
behind the distributions are not as large. From 1983 to 2005, there have
been fewer than 2,000 divorces to males who were married in 1983 aged
50 to 59 years-old. Nevertheless, this chart suggests that men may be
slightly more likely to divorce if they marry above age 40 and are older
than their wife by ten or more years.
Figure 9b
England and Wales
England and Wales
16
16
wife older
14
husband older
8
5
12
Proportion (%)
10
10
2
2
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
22
20
Divorces: single
Marriages: single
Divorces: divorced
Marriages: divorced
5
4
–15
husband older
8
4
0
–20
wife older
14
Divorces: single
Marriages: single
Divorces: divorced
Marriages: divorced
Divorces: widowed
Marriages: widowed
12
Proportion (%)
Distribution of age differences at marriage and
divorce by previous marital status (proportions)
Males – 2003 marriage cohort
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown. Widowed are not shown because
the number of divorces to previously widowed individuals were very small. For 2003 the
distributions for marriages (by year of marriage) are identical to those shown in Figure 3.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Figure 10a
Distribution of age differences at marriage and
divorce by age at marriage (proportions)
Females – 1963 marriage cohort
England and Wales
Figure 10b
25
wife older
10
husband older
wife older
20
Divorce – under 20
Marriage – under 20
Divorce – 20–29
Marriage – 20–29
Divorce – 30–39
Marriage – 30–39
Proportion (%)
Proportion (%)
15
5
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Distribution of age differences at marriage and
divorce by age at marriage (proportions)
Males – 1983 marriage cohort
25
wife older
Proportion (%)
husband older
Divorce – 40–49
Marriage – 40–49
Divorce – 50–59
Marriage – 50–59
10
5
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
0
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
England and Wales
15
10
Divorce – under 20
Marriage – under 20
Divorce – 20–29
Marriage – 20–29
Divorce – 30–39
Marriage – 30–39
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
20
15
husband older
5
Age difference (years)
Figure 11
Distribution of age differences at marriage and
divorce by age at marriage (proportions)
Females – 1983 marriage cohort
England and Wales
25
20
S u m m e r 2008
10
15
20
Age difference (years)
Note: Age differences are calculated by subtracting the wife’s age from the husband’s
Age differences larger than 20 years are not shown
Summary and discussion
The subject of age differences at marriage has been explored at length in
previous research. This article illustrates previous findings using charts of
frequency distributions for selected years. It is well known that husbands
tend to be older than wives and that mean age differences have tended
to remain fairly stable over time. It is also known that age difference
distributions exhibit a large amount of variability. It appears that the
distribution of age differences is more varied for recent marriages (Figure
1). One reason for this change relates to previous marital status. Between
1963 and 2003 the proportion of marriages involving divorcees increased
by over 20 percentage points, while the proportion of marriages involving
single individuals decreased by approximately 18 to 19 percentage
points (Tables 1 and 2). Over the same period, there has been a notable
change in the age difference distributions for both single men and women
between 1963 and 2003 (Figures 2 and 3). Therefore, although the larger
proportion of remarriages has contributed to changing age difference
distributions, another influential factor is changes to the distribution of
age differences for marriages of single individuals.
Recent years have seen an increase in the proportion of marriages
involving older individuals (Table 3). This increase in average age at
marriage has affected the overall trend in marital age differences because
the distribution of age differences for men and women who marry at
older ages are more spread out (they have a larger variance). As well
as changes in the average age at marriage, Figures 4a, 4b, 5a and 5b
also show that age difference distributions have changed for particular
age groups, particularly those under 30. The changes relating to age at
marriage therefore relate to changes in the individual distributions and
changes in the proportion of marriages within each distribution.
Having explored marital age differences, these can be compared with age
differences at divorce. This comparison makes it possible to see whether
people who divorce have a different profile of age differences. The
results show that there are few distinctions in these profiles for particular
marriage cohorts. This is illustrated by the three years shown in Figure 7.
Presenting the same information in a different way, Figure 8 shows the
proportion of marriages ending in divorce by age difference. There are
small variations but these are not consistent across marriage cohorts. This
suggests that propensity to divorce is not strongly associated with marital
age difference at an aggregate level, although further research would be
required to control for mortality and any other factors that may affect the
risk of divorce.
Analysis of divorces by previous marital status broadly confirms the
general finding. The distributions of age differences are similar for
comparable marriages and divorces when disaggregated by previous
marital status (Figure 9a and 9b). Analysis by age at marriage is also
consistent with the general finding to an extent, although there is some
evidence that individuals who marry above age 30 and are older than
their spouse by more than ten years may be more likely to divorce
(Figures 10a, 10b and 11). This seems more noticeable for older marriage
cohorts, such as those in 1963.
Before concluding that there is no strong association between marital
age differences and propensity to divorce, it is important to consider
the effects of mortality. Given that older people are more likely to die,
couples with larger age differences may be more exposed to death than
couples who are the same age. The interaction between exposure to death
and divorce is unlikely to be simple, but it is worth mentioning here in
general terms. If marriages with large age differences are more likely
to end due to the death of a partner (compared with couples who are of
similar age) then this might mask the fact that they have an increased
23
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
probability of divorce. If all other things remain equal, an increase in
deaths will reduce the population at risk of divorce, and therefore result
in fewer divorces (assuming the same divorce rate). For couples with
larger age differences, a decrease in divorces due to more deaths might
hide an increased risk of divorce due to the age difference. It follows
that the results should be treated with caution, particularly where one
partner reaches an age where mortality becomes significant. However
the use of almost all registered marriages and divorces between 1963 and
2005 should make the data more robust than analysis using surveys. As
such, it seems reasonable to conclude that despite any popular belief to
the contrary, there does not appear to be any strong association between
marital age difference and probability of divorce.
4
5
Key findings
•• Preliminary results suggest that there does not appear to be a
strong association between marital age difference and likelihood
of divorce, although other factors were not controlled for.
Between 1963 and 2005, the distribution of age differences for
all marriages is very similar in each year to the distribution of age
differences for the subset of couples who married in the same
year, but have since divorced.
•• More detailed analysis that explores previous marital status
(prior to the marriage in question) also suggests that marital age
difference does not seem to be strongly associated with likelihood
of divorce.
•• Analysis of age at marriage suggests that for some marriage
years there may be an association between age difference and
probability of divorce for individuals who marry above age 30 and
are older than their spouse by more than ten years. This seems more
noticeable for older marriage cohorts, such as those in 1963.
Acknowledgements
6
7
8
9
We are very grateful for the comments of all reviewers, which greatly
improved ths article.
10
References
1 Ní Bhrolcháin M (2005) The age difference at marriage in England
and Wales: a century of patterns and trends, Population Trends 120,
pp 7–14
www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/population_trends/
PT120AgeDifference.pdf
2 Hancock R, Stuchbury R and Tomassini C (2003) Changes in the
distribution of marital age differences in England and Wales, 1963 to
1998, Population Trends 114, pp 19–25
www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/PT114.pdf
3 There are many relevant studies, including the following:
Ní Bhrolcháin M and Sigle-Rushton W (2005) Partner supply in
Britain and the US: estimates and gender contrasts, Population Vol.
60, pp. 37–64
Ní Bhrolcháin M (2001) Flexibility in the marriage market,
Population – An English Selection 13, pp 9–48
Lampard R (1993) Availability of marriage partners in England and
Wales: a comparison of three measures, Journal of Biosocial Science
25, pp 333–350
Ní Bhrolcháin M (1992) Age difference asymmetry and a two–sex
perspective, European Journal of Population 8, pp 23–45
Bytheway WR (1981) The variation with age of age differences at
marriage, Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp.
923-927
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
24
11
12
13
Goldman N, Westoff C and Hammerslough C (1984) Demography of
the marriage market in the United States, Population Index 50, pp 5–25
Casterline J, Williams L and McDonald P (1986) The age difference
between spouses: variations among developing countries, Population
Studies 40, pp 353–374
Presser H (1975) Age differences between spouses, American
Behavioral Scientist 19, pp 190–204
Unless otherwise stated all data refer to England and Wales. The
choice of 1963 as the first year for analysis was made due to the
availability of electronic records and to match the analysis in PT114.
It should be noted that marriages and divorces recorded in England
and Wales will not include all marriages and divorces to residents of
England and Wales. Marriages and divorces abroad are not recorded
and are missing from the data. The latest marital status projections
included a variant based on marriages abroad (see link below),
but there is no ideal source of information on the topic. Current
information suggests that marriages abroad account for around 10%
of all marriages to England & Wales residents. It should also be
noted that a very small number of events will have been excluded
from the analysis in this article due to missing data.
www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Marital_status_
projections/2003/marriages_abroad.asp
This is consistent with previous reports, which have calculated age
difference in this way, probably because husbands have tended to
be older than wives. The calculation is based upon age recorded at
marriage registration. As with previous reports, it is assumed that dates
of marriage occur randomly with respect to birth dates and that the age
difference in years is distributed randomly between d-1 and d+1, but
centred on d, where d is the age difference based on recorded age at
marriage. There is no material evidence to reject this assumption.
Ní Bhrolcháin M (2001) above
Technically, the data on age differences are discrete and should not
be presented as a linear series. Although it would be more accurate
to present these data in a histogram, they have been presented in a
different format in order to be able to display more than one series. It
is hoped that this improves visualisation of the data.
For direct comparison, the article in Population Trends 114 shows
similar charts comparing the distribution of marital age differences
by previous marital status in 1963 and 1998.
The distributions for the three years shown in Figure 1 do not
capture the whole time series of changes between 1963 and 2003.
However, they provide a very good summary of the general trend.
The main variation is for the years between 1965 and 1971, where
the most common age difference is slightly larger than in 1963
and the distribution is shifted slightly to the left (slightly fewer
older husbands). Between 1973 and 1983 the distribution moves
incrementally from that shown for 1963 to that shown for 1983.
Between 1983 and 1996 the distribution moves incrementally from
that shown for 1983 to that shown for 2003. In 1996 the distribution
is very similar to the one shown for 2003, and this is also true for all
years between 1996 and 2003.
Another way of showing this is as follows. In 1963, 90 per cent of
marriages had an age difference between –3 (wife three years older)
and 10 (husband ten years older). This is the central 90 per cent, with
the remaining 10 per cent split between 5 per cent being lower (wife
older by more than three years) and 5 per cent being higher (husband
older by more than ten years). In 2003, the limits of this central 90
per cent of the distribution increased to -7 and 13.
Ní Bhrolcháin M (1992) above
For examples see:
Ní Bhrolcháin M (2001) Flexibility in the marriage market,
Population – An English Selection 13, pp 9–48
Bytheway WR (1981) The variation with age of age differences at
marriage, Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp.
923–927
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
14 See ONS (2008) Proportion of Marriages Ending in Divorce,
Population Trends 131, pp 28–36
15 Some studies of Norwegian survey data have shown that age
difference has a statistically significant relationship with divorce.
Tjøtta S and Vaage K (2005) Public Transfers and Marital
Dissolution
www.econ.uib.no/pub/Sigve/PublTransfMarDissol_FinalVersion.pdf
Lyngstad TH (2004) The Impact of Parents’ and Spouses’ Education
on Divorce Rates in Norway, Demographic Research, Vol. 10, Article
5, pp. 121–142
www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol10/5/10-5.pdf
16 Survey data from the USA has shown that there is no significant
correlation between age difference and divorce: Bramlett MD
and Mosher WD (2002) Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and
Remarriage in the United States, Vital and health statistics. Series.
23, Data from the national survey of family growth, www.cdc.gov/
nchs/data/series/sr_23/sr23_022.pdf
17 Janssen JPG, de Graaf PM, Kalmijn M (1999) Heterogamy and
divorce: an analysis of Dutch register data, 1974-1994, Bevolking en
Gezin, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 35-57
“The analysis of this data set shows that several forms of heterogamy
affect the divorce risk. Couples in which spouses differ in age
(especially if the wife is older than her husband), couples in which
husband and wife have different religions, and couples with different
nationalities have higher divorce risks than homogamous couples.”
popindex.princeton.edu/browse/v65/n4/g.html
Also see, Kajita E, Iki M, Fukui M, Ogata A, Takayama S, Yamazaki
K, Ooida T, Yajima T (1990) Rate of incidence of divorce in birth
cohorts classified by age difference between married couples
[Nippon Eiseigaku Zasshi]
“The cumulative divorce rate was lowest when husbands were one
to four years older than wives. This tendency was quite similar in
different ages and cohorts”
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2255111
S u m m e r 2008
18 See Vaňo B (editor) (1999) Population Development in the Slovak
Republic, POPIN Czech Republic Population Information
“If the difference in age is not too high (the man is not older by
more than 8 years or a women is not older by more than 5 years),
the difference in age does not have an impact on the probability
of divorce. At high age differences, also the excess male mortality
should be taken into account.”
popin.natur.cuni.cz/html2/publications/papers/popdev99sk/divorce.
pdf
19 Gentleman J F and E Park (1994) Age differences of married and
divorcing couples, Health Reports 6(2), pp 225–239
“A model is developed that shows that divorce rates are lowest when
the husband is two to ten years older than the wife or when the
magnitude of their age difference is extremely large. Furthermore,
the chance of divorce is much higher when the wife is older than the
husband than vice versa.”
20 When comparing the distributions of marriages and divorces, a
subjective judgement is required as to what constitutes a material
difference between distributions. Figure 7 appears to demonstrate
no material difference between the distributions of marriages
and divorces for a given year. Additionally, results for the years
between 1963 and 2003 are similar to those in Figure 7. Several
statistical tests were also carried out. These tests compared observed
frequencies (for divorces by year of marriage) with expected
frequencies (based on the distribution of frequencies from all
marriages in the corresponding year). However, both the chosen
non-parametric tests (Chi-Square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov) yielded
significant results, chiefly due to the large “sample” size. This is a
known weakness of these tests. When considering the significant
results, it must be considered whether the significant difference is
also a material, substantial or quantifiable difference. Of course
the data here are not really samples at all, but populations of
registered events.
25
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Wi n t e r 2007
The 2007 Census Test:
Evaluation of key
objectives
Garnett Compton
Office for National Statistics
Introduction
The Office for National Statistics conducted
a major census field test in May and
June 2007 as part of the planning and
preparation for the next census of
population and housing in England and
Wales in 2011.
The 2007 Census Test was a large scale test
covering approximately 100,000 households
in five local authorities (LAs) selected to
reflect a range of geographic conditions
and social characteristics. Within England
the Test covered parts of Bath and North
East Somerset, Camden, Liverpool and
Stoke on Trent. In Wales the Test took place
in Carmarthenshire. The selected LAs were
chosen to provide a varied cross section of
the population and types of housing that
would be covered in a full census.
This article summarises the evaluation
results and, where decided, decisions for
2011 on four key aspects of the Test:
• delivery method – post-out compared
with hand delivery
• inclusion of an income question
• outsourcing recruitment, training and
pay, and
• liaison with LAs
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
As reported in Population Trends 1261, the 2007 Census Test in England
and Wales was held on 13 May 2007 in five different local authorities
(LAs) covering about 100,000 households. This article sets out the
evaluation results of four key aspects of the 2007 Test, specifically:
••
••
••
••
delivery method
income question
outsourcing recruitment, training and pay
liaison with LAs
More information on the 2007 Census Test in England and Wales,
including the design of the Test, is available on the National Statistics
website2, while an overview of the key lessons learned from the Test has
been reported elsewhere3. A detailed evaluation report summarising the
main findings and covering other aspects of the Test beyond the scope
of this paper is being prepared, and will be published on the National
Statistics website in 2008.
Purpose of the Test
The main objectives of the Test were to assess:
••
••
26
the effect on response of:
• the use of post-out to deliver questionnaires, and
• the inclusion of a question on income
the feasibility of major innovations in operational procedures, such
as the outsourcing of recruitment, training and pay
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Test Design
Within each stratum:
The 2007 Test in England and Wales was a large scale test in five
LAs selected to reflect a range of geographic conditions and social
characteristics. Within England the Test covered parts of Bath and North
East Somerset, Camden, Liverpool and Stoke on Trent. In Wales the Test
took place in Carmarthenshire. The selected LAs1 were chosen to provide
a varied cross section of the population and types of housing that would
be covered in a full census.
••
The Test was designed to enable a statistical comparison between
response rates for the main objectives (post-out/hand delivery and
income/no income). The sample of 100,000 households selected from
within the five LAs was divided into five equal strata (approximately
20,000 households), according to an Enumeration Targeting
Categorisation (ETC) which assigns a difficulty level of 1–5 (where level
5 represents the very hardest to enumerate) to each Enumeration District
(ED). The EDs used are 2001 EDs which contain between 100 and 300
households. The ETC4 for the Test was developed using factors found to
be most associated with household census non-response:
••
••
••
••
••
••
The percentage of adults aged 19 to 29 years
The percentage of all Black, Chinese or Asian households
The percentage of households who are renting privately
The percentage of households who are renting from an LA or
housing association
The percentage of households in non-standard housing (including
caravans)
The percentage of working-age adults claiming income support or
job seekers allowance
As a result of an equal apportionment of the Test sample to the five ETC
categories, the hardest to count areas, ETC 4 and 5, account for about
40 per cent of the Test areas compared with only 10 per cent in England
and Wales as a whole (see Table 1). This oversampling in the hardest to
count areas allowed statistical comparison of the Test treatments between
ETCs, and to ensure that the operational procedures were sufficiently
tested in the ‘hardest’ areas.
••
S u m m e r 2008
half the population received a questionnaire by post and half by
hand
half the population received a questionnaire including an income
question, and half without this question
As part of the Test, a Census Test Evaluation Survey (CTES) was
conducted. The CTES sought to assess the public’s views of the census
in relation to specific questions and the quality of responses given
during the Test. The CTES interviewed about 1,200 households who had
responded to the Test and about 250 non-responding households.
Delivery method – post-out or hand delivery
Why consider post-out?
One of the key methodological changes proposed for 2011 is to move to
delivering the majority of questionnaires by post, rather than by hand.
This strategy is being considered
••
••
••
to reduce serious risks experienced in 2001, in particular the failure
to recruit a large number of enumerators
to provide savings to invest in improving response from hard to
count groups and areas through more targeted follow-up and support
processes, and
because of the limited success of making contact at delivery
The move to a post-out methodology follows a key recommendation from
the evaluation of the 2001 Census and the Treasury Select Committee,
namely that more must be done to improve coverage amongst hard to
count groups.
Although the use of post-out has not been applied on a large scale in previous
censuses in England and Wales, it is used in other countries. In particular, it
was used successfully in the 2006 Canadian Census, which is closest to the
England and Wales design, and it is also used in the US Census.
Assessment criteria
Table 1
Household and Enumeration District sample size by
Local Authority and Enumeration Target Category in
2007 Census Test, England and Wales
Households (number)
An assessment of post-out considers results for two key questions from
the 2007 Test:
••
••
Can we get an address list of sufficient quality to support post-out?
Does post-out have an impact on return rates?
Enumeration Target Category
1
2
3
4
5
TOTAL
Local authority
4,524
1,888
1,553
1,777
0
9,742
0
694
1,453
13,832
14,272
30,251
Carmarthenshire
5,353
2,687
933
0
0
8,973
Liverpool
4,542
7,627
11,468
5,761
8,508
37,906
Stoke
4,250
5,621
4,013
960
0
14,844
18,669 18,517 19,420 22,330 22,780
101,716
Bath
Camden
TOTAL
Enumeration Districts (number)
Enumeration Target Category
1
2
3
4
5
TOTAL
Local authority
24
8
7
8
0
47
0
4
8
69
71
152
Carmarthenshire
35
13
4
0
0
52
Liverpool
22
40
59
30
45
196
Stoke
19
27
18
5
0
69
TOTAL
100
92
96
112
116
516
Bath
Camden
In addition, ONS assessed costs for post-out and hand delivery for the
same overall response. This included the additional follow-up costs
necessary to recover from a lower initial response from post-out.
Response rates
The 2007 Test was designed to estimate whether or not the behaviour
of respondents (that is propensity to respond) is significantly reduced in
areas where they received their questionnaire through the post rather than
through hand delivery by an enumerator; and, if so, whether the drop
in response rates can be recovered with a more intensive follow-up by
looking at the success rates between the two delivery methods at followup. The section on costs (below) assesses whether any required follow-up
is affordable.
In order to assess the propensity to respond between hand delivery and
post-out, the Test was designed so that each of the delivery methods had
a maximum of three attempts at follow-up. As a result, more contact
was made in hand delivery areas (when delivering the questionnaires),
implying a higher response than in post-out areas.
27
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
A one-sided t-test was used to test whether the differences in response
rates between post-out and hand delivery areas were statistically significant
across each ETC category. Table 2 shows the household response rates
after follow-up by ETC and LA, and with the associated p-values.
From this analysis it can be concluded that there is a clear, statistically
significant difference in the response rates between post-out and hand
delivery methods. This represents an overall statistically significant
difference in the Test areas of 2.8 per cent. A more detailed report on
the statistical analysis of the response rates will follow on the National
Statistics website. The differences between post-out and hand delivery do
not differ noticeably across ETC categories. This suggests that, although
post-out has an impact on response rates, the difference in response
rates between the two methods is not affected by the hard-to-count
characteristics of an area.
Table 2
Response rates and differences in response by
delivery method, 2007 Census Test, England and
Wales.
Hand
delivery
Post-out
Difference
Std error
(Diff)
1
2
3
4
53.4%
50.6%
2.8%
1.0%
t-value
P-value
df
5
TOTAL
<1%
249
All cases
2.89
ETC
1
66.9%
63.4%
3.6%
1.5%
2.41
1%
46
2
55.7%
51.2%
4.5%
2.5%
1.77
4%
45
3
47.8%
44.7%
3.1%
2.2%
1.38
9%
46
4
36.8%
37.0%
-0.2%
1.7%
-0.11
54%
58
5
33.8%
29.3%
4.5%
2.0%
2.24
1%
58
Camden
35.7%
34.6%
1.2%
1.7%
0.69
25%
77
101
Liverpool
50.8%
46.6%
4.2%
1.4%
3.03
<1%
Stoke
59.6%
56.1%
3.5%
2.3%
1.51
7%
37
Bath
62.3%
61.0%
1.3%
2.9%
0.45
33%
24
Carmarthenshire
67.5%
62.5%
5.1%
2.9%
1.73
5%
23
Can a difference in initial response rates (the rates at the start of
follow-up) be redressed by more intensive follow-up? Table 3 shows
the success of follow-up in each ETC category by delivery method,
for the initial non-responders who were ‘converted’ to responders by
follow-up.
Table 3
Improvement in return rates due to follow up, by
initial delivery method and Enumeration Target
Category 2007 Census Test, England and Wales
All Non-returns
Hand delivery
Post out delivery
26.0%
25.8%
0.2%
1
37.1%
35.4%
1.8%
2
27.0%
26.9%
0.1%
3
23.6%
22.2%
1.5%
4
16.5%
17.6%
–1.0%
5
14.9%
13.6%
1.3%
All cases
Some 25.8 per cent of the initial non-responders in post-out areas were
‘converted’ by field follow-up into responders. Overall there was a small
and statistically not significant difference of 0.2 per cent in follow-up
effectiveness when broadly equal levels of follow-up were applied to
both post-out and hand delivery areas. As the differences are very small,
28
A small reduction in response rates, with a post-out strategy, could
potentially be recoverable with more follow-up. However, additional
follow-up under a post-out strategy would increase costs. The section
below summarises a cost-comparison between the two delivery methods,
including the cost of an increase in follow-up under a post-out regime.
ONS believes that targeted publicity using some of the saved resources
from a post-out strategy will compensate for a reduced initial response to
a post-out strategy.
Costs
One of the reasons for considering a post-out methodology is that it
may offer cost reductions that can be used elsewhere. A cost model was
developed to estimate the costs for different mixes of delivery method.
It uses the initial response rates, the rate before follow-up, to estimate the
number of follow-up visits required to achieve an overall response rate
of 94 per cent (as in 2001). It estimates the additional follow-up visits
required in post-out areas to achieve the same response (94 per cent) as
in a hand delivery area.
The estimated savings, attributable to the delivery stage, are due to the
significant reduction in the number of field staff to recruit, train, equip
and pay. However, hidden within these savings is an increased follow-up
cost resulting from the expected small increase in non-response owing to
a post-out regime.
The cost model indicates that:
••
••
comparing 100 per cent post-out with 100 per cent hand delivery
with a difference in initial response rates of 5 per cent, post-out
results in savings of between £28–£35 million depending on
the success of follow-up, for the same overall response rate of
94 per cent
there needs to be a difference in initial response rates of more than
10 per cent before the cost of post-out starts to equal, or exceed the
cost of hand delivery
Quality of the address register in the 2007 Test
An address list of high coverage and quality is vital to the proposed
census design. This is:
••
••
to underpin an operational intelligence system which will track
every Census questionnaire and provides the necessary control to
manage and target field operations most effectively, and
to support a post-out strategy since there is less opportunity at the
onset of the census period to identify new households
Difference (H-P)
ETC
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
the results support the assumption that the success of follow-up is not
affected by the delivery method.
The address list used in the 2007 Test was developed from an address
register product updated with an address check that was conducted during
September and October 2006 in the Test areas. Address checkers were
given extracts from the Ordnance Survey MasterMap Address Layer 2 for
each ED and were required to validate the address list by checking the
existence and accuracy of each address, as well as recording additional
addresses found.
New households found provided a key indicator of the quality of the
address register used for questionnaire delivery. Households found in
the hand delivery areas can be used to estimate the numbers that might,
under a post-out regime, be identified as missing, and would therefore not
have received a questionnaire. Table 4 shows the number and percentage
of new households that were found in hand delivery areas during the
2007 Test.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Table 4
S u m m e r 2008
New addresses found during the Test in hand delivery areas by Enumeration Target Category and by enumeration phase (delivery
or follow-up), 2007 Census Test, England and Wales
Enumeration Target Category (ETC)
Enumeration phase
Total
1
2
3
4
5
Found during Delivery
1.1% (564)
1.0% (88)
0.5% (48)
1.3% (125)
1.2% (138)
1.5% (165)
Found during Follow-up
0.2% (116)
0.3% (26)
0.2% (22)
0.2% (17)
0.3% (36)
0.1% (15)
Total
1.3% (680)
1.3% (114)
0.7% (70)
1.5% (142)
1.5% (174)
1.6% (180)
The table shows that:
Income question
••
An income question was trialled in the Test following strong demand
from census users during the 2005 topic consultations5. The aim was
to test the effect on overall response, and the quality of responses of an
income question included in the questionnaire.
••
the proportion of new addresses found during hand-delivery was
1.1 per cent. In all, it is estimated that in 2011 1.3 per cent of
households would be missed off the address register, if the same levels
of hand-delivery coverage were experienced across England and Wales
a sixth of the new addresses found in hand-delivery areas were
found at follow-up, suggesting that delivery enumerators would still
miss some addresses
To understand the quality of the address register used during
enumeration, ONS looked at a sample of just over half of the new
addresses found:
••
••
of the 540 new addresses examined, 68 per cent were sub-premise
addresses. It is likely that most of these addresses were present at
the time of an address check and should have been identified earlier
twenty per cent of the addresses found during enumeration were
actually included in a subsequent version of the Ordnance Survey
address list updated to Test Census day. Some reduction in the
number of new addresses found could be achieved in 2011 through
an update from the address register list before Census day
This suggests that improvements to the coverage of the address
register used for the 2011 Census need to be made. ONS is confident
improvements are achievable through intelligence gathering and
collaborative work with addressing experts. This includes:
••
••
developing a process to enable a late update to the address register
shortly before Census day to reduce the number of missed addresses
working with address register suppliers to improve their coverage
and accuracy
Conclusions and recommendations
Based on the evidence from the Test, cost modelling and risk analysis,
the conclusions are:
••
••
••
••
post-out impacts on response rates. However, the difference is small
and recoverable
the Enumeration Targeting Category distribution is by itself not a
significant factor in the choice of delivery method
that improvements identified for the address registers and current
follow-up procedures suggest that undercoverage will be small and
manageable
a post-out strategy releases resources for targeted follow-up and
community liaison
On balance, the evidence suggests that a post-out strategy would bring
advantages and savings. Whatever the delivery method, follow-up is
crucial to maximise response rates.
As a result ONS has decided that post-out will be the primary method of
delivering questionnaires in 2011. As a planning assumption 95 per cent of
households will receive their questionnaire through the post. The amount
and location of hand delivery will be confirmed after further research in
areas where the address register is likely to have significant quality issues.
Figures 1 and 2 present the questions on sources of income and income
used in the Test. The question design is based on recommendations from
small-scale and cognitive testing.
Does an income question result in a significant drop in
response?
Table 5 presents the overall response rates with and without an
income question by ETC category. A one-sided t-test was used to
determine whether the differences in response rates between ‘income’
questionnaires and ‘no income’ questionnaires were statistically
significant for each ETC band.
Table 5
Final response rates and differences in response by
presence of an Income Question, 2007 Census Test,
England and Wales
With
No
income Income
question question
All cases
52.2%
49.5%
Difference
Std Error
t-value
P-value
df
2.7%
1.0%
2.75
<1%
249
ETC
1
64.6%
63.3%
1.3%
1.9%
0.70
24%
46
2
53.4%
50.6%
2.8%
2.5%
1.12
13%
45
3
47.6%
42.8%
4.8%
2.0%
2.41
1%
46
4
37.5%
34.3%
3.2%
2.0%
1.65
5%
58
5
31.1%
29.1%
1.9%
2.1%
0.94
18%
58
Camden
35.0%
32.5%
2.5%
1.7%
1.45
8%
77
Liverpool
49.2%
46.1%
3.1%
1.3%
2.47
1%
101
Stoke
57.1%
55.5%
1.6%
3.1%
0.50
31%
37
Bath
62.0%
59.7%
2.3%
2.9%
0.78
22%
24
Carmarthenshire
64.7%
63.4%
1.3%
2.7%
0.47
32%
23
Post-out
50.8%
47.5%
3.2%
1.3%
2.43
1%
140
Hand delivery
53.7%
51.5%
2.2%
1.4%
1.51
7%
139
There was a statistically significant overall drop of 2.7 per cent in
response in areas that received income questionnaires. By ETC category
the difference in response is only statistically significant for category
three, representing 10 per cent of the country.
The effect of any interaction between income question inclusion and
questionnaire delivery method (post-out or hand-delivery) on overall response
was tested. This shows that inclusion of an income question using post-out as
the delivery method produces a statistically significant drop in response of
3.2 per cent. A more detailed statistical analysis of income response rates will
be published on the National Statistics website in 2008.
29
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
Figure 1
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Income question part 1 as on the census form
What is the impact of an income question on the quality of
response?
An assessment was made on the overall quality of the responses to the
income question and its impact on other questions:
••
••
••
••
••
Figure 2
Income question part 2 as on the census form
••
around 91 per cent of individuals responding also gave a valid
response to the income question. Only around 0.2 per cent of
responses were invalid multi-ticks
inclusion of an income question did not impact on the completeness
of the responses: 97 per cent of returned income questionnaires were
valid, the same as questionnaires without an income question
the Census Test Evaluation Survey (CTES) showed that the reliability of
answers was poor when compared with responses to the same question
in the CTES. Response in the top six income level bands ranged from
57 per cent to 88 per cent, whereas the responses in the two lowest
income bands was much lower, ranging from 36 to 40 per cent
around 10 per cent of all individuals classified as unemployed did
not answer the income question compared to only 3 per cent of
those employed. This may be because unemployed individuals do
not think that they need to answer the question since they have
no income
when compared with the CTES coverage results, it was found that
3.3 per cent of individuals were ‘missed’ from the Test with no
income questionnaires, whereas only 2.1 per cent of individuals
were missed from Test income questionnaires. Therefore, there is
no evidence suggesting that inclusion of an income question would
result in higher undercoverage of usual residents
the public’s response to an income question is a useful gauge of
the potential impact of its inclusion. The CTES asked respondents
their view on the 2007 Test and found that among individuals who
received an income questionnaire, and found at least one question
was difficult to answer, 18 per cent indicated that the income
question was difficult. From those who received an income form
and responded that they were unhappy about answering at least one
question, some 58 per cent cited the income question
Overall, the Test has shown that the inclusion of an income question has a
considerable impact on response and quality of response. When deciding
whether to include an income question on the 2011 questionnaire, ONS
must consider the strength of user needs and the available space on
the questionnaire. ONS has therefore recommended that income is not
included in the 2011 Census questionnaire. The content and topics for
the 2011 Census will be included within the White Paper presented to
Parliament later in 2008.
Outsourcing recruitment, training and pay
A major element of the Test was outsourcing of recruitment, payroll
and training activities which had previously been the remit of census
personnel. In 2001 only the payroll was outsourced; this was deemed
unsuccessful. A contract for the 2007 Test to provide a combined
recruitment, payroll and training service was awarded to Hays Specialist
Recruitment Ltd.
Evaluation also determined whether the Test worked well as a single
package. As a result ONS has decided to outsource the recruitment,
training and pay of field staff in the 2011 Census in England and Wales.
Recruitment, payroll and training of 50,000 people for a limited period
are non-core services of ONS. ONS is incapable of providing these
services on this scale.
The 2007 Test, where these services were outsourced, proved successful
in guaranteeing confidentiality and data protection.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
30
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Liaison with Local Authorities
The ONS Local Authority Action Plan for 20076 aimed to develop
and test strategies for working with LAs as part of the Census Test.
The key areas were the role of the LAs, operational interfaces and
local community engagement. There were specific areas identified for
cooperation in the Test:
••
••
••
••
address register development to ensure maximum coverage
area profiles and data sharing, to develop enumeration intelligence
for targeting of delivery and follow-up resources
recruitment and logistical support
developing community liaison contacts, local strategic partnerships
and LA support
From past experience, it is mutually beneficial for LAs and ONS to
cooperate in the conduct of the census. ONS can benefit from LA
resources and knowledge to improve the enumeration process. LAs have
experience and contacts including:
••
••
••
knowledge of the profile of local areas and all factors that may make
them hard to enumerate, including language problems
experience of similar operations such as electoral registration and
postal elections, and
contacts with a range of local organisations such as the police,
student groups, housing associations, religious groups, etc
In turn, LAs will benefit from better census results, ensuring proper
allocation of financial resources.
Address registers
For the Test LAs were asked to assist with the list for communal
establishments (non-household addresses) as there was inadequate
time to verify the household address list with LAs. ONS compiled a
comprehensive list of communal establishment information for the Test
areas and passed it to LAs in May 2006. LAs were asked to check the
information supplied, correct any errors and identify any omissions.
The information collected by ONS before the 2007 Test was accurate
for large communal establishments. Where information was imprecise it
was because redevelopment had altered the situation on the ground. In
Carmarthenshire, for instance, the Bryntirion Hospital appeared on ONS’s
initial list, but was undergoing demolition and residential redevelopment.
Data about communal establishments is duplicated across a wide range
of local sources. Extracts from different data sources were provided by
some LAs. Where these were not linked to the Local Land and Property
Gazetteer (LLPG), the format of the addresses varied and the address
itself did not include a unique identifier to enable efficient matching. This
made the process of integrating this information more difficult.
For this reason the approach used in the 2007 Test to ensure communal
establishment information could not be replicated in a full census.
Area profiles and data sharing
In addition to information collected for the development of the address
register, LAs were asked to supply data for the creation of area profiles.
Their aim is to provide pertinent information about an area to assist in
improving response from local communities and hard to count groups.
The information requested for the area profiles included:
••
••
areas with high multiple occupancy
areas where health and safety of enumerators may be an issue
••
••
••
••
S u m m e r 2008
dwellings containing more than one household
vacant and second homes
gated communities and accommodation with secure entry
areas of a high ethnic, religious and linguistic diversity
The supply and compilation of the information needs to be reassessed
if the concept of area profiles is to be considered for 2011. The Test
showed that:
••
••
••
••
the sourcing of data within LAs by the Assistant Census Liaison
Managers (see below) was time consuming in some LAs,
particularly where the sources came from a number of internal
sources
there were different approaches to data release, with some LAs
assessing risk for each release leading to some delays in data
provision
the timely provision of data varied across the LAs, and
production costs within ONS to assimilate and format the data with
other internal data sources were very high
Additionally, the usefulness of the area profiles was mixed, with some
field staff who knew their local area well not using the information in the
area profiles.
Any data sharing for 2011 needs to be as simple as possible for both
ONS and LAs and ONS should review:
••
••
••
the need for topic information for all field managers across all LAs
and consider a more targeted approach
data sharing protocols in the specification of any data to ensure that
the data can be shared without significant disruption within LAs, and
the process of supply and collation of data and consider earlier
supply in a common format
Recruitment and logistical support
In 2001 there were significant difficulties recruiting large numbers of
field staff, particularly in urban areas. To reduce this risk the LA Liaison
Action Plan sought to encourage LAs to support the recruitment process.
The use of LA or ex-LA staff provided an extra element of quality, since
many of these have undertaken similar roles within the LA and have an
understanding of the importance of the census. Where LA staff or ex-LA
staff were recruited as census field staff they generally performed to a
high standard. LA staff, particularly with Electoral Register experience,
had excellent local knowledge and contacts.
LAs were also asked to provide logistical support to field staff managers,
such as office accommodation for training or storage and other support.
During the Test, some LAs provided assistance to field staff managers.
For example, accommodation was provided; in Camden car park passes
were provided; in Carmarthenshire the LA-provided maps were more
appropriate than the maps ONS had provided to field staff.
Community Liaison programme and Local Strategic
Partnerships
As part of the Test, LAs were asked to help census field managers engage
directly with community groups and Local Strategic Partnerships by
sharing their extensive local contacts with Census Field Managers. LAs
were asked to prepare a list of local contacts for the key organisations
identified by ONS and to add others that they thought would be helpful.
The advisory and steering role that community groups undertook overall
was very useful. There were wide variations in the timeliness and
provision of information, and community organisations are limited in the
provision of information.
31
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Feedback suggested that the role of census senior field managers of
communicating with LAs and community groups was unclear and
therefore of limited success.
Working with LSPs is an effective way of getting information to a range
of community groups and others simultaneously. ONS needs to consider
how these relationships can be developed in the lead up to the 2011
Census. In particular there is a need for:
••
••
••
senior field managers’ job descriptions to be clear about their
duties of community liaison with specific guidance on building and
realising these relationships with community groups
work with LAs to develop their list of community groups and
key contacts, and to concentrate on contacting the hardest to
reach people
ONS to continue to develop effective partnerships and support
in planning for 2011
Conclusions
Although there were differences in ways of working between LAs,
the principles and benefits of LA liaison were clearly proven. This is
evidenced by the overall commitment shown by LAs in supporting the
Census Test, including the provision of supporting information and
assistance. However, it is clear that the LA Liaison approach used for
the 2007 Test could not be replicated across all of England and Wales for
2011. The main conclusions that can be drawn from the Test are that:
ONS must continue to work with LAs towards:
••
••
••
••
••
address register development
local intelligence and community contact
data sharing
recruitment of LA staff
logistical support and publicity
Local Authority support
Summary of outcomes and future work
ONS invited Chief Executives of the Test LAs to cooperate with ONS.
LAs were asked to appoint a Census Liaison Manager (CLM) to act as
‘Champion’, and Assistant CLMs to be the main contact point, provide
data and local intelligence to Census HQ, and liaise with field managers.
Questionnaire delivery
Engagement and participation across the LAs was variable and was
affected by:
••
••
••
changes in structure during the Test period, for instance in Liverpool
the census contact (ACLM/CLM) was moved out of the City
Council to Liverpool Direct which affected their ability to exchange
information within the Council
changes in Chief Executives during the Test, and
continuity of the CLM and ACLM positions during the Test
As a result of the evaluation of the 2007 Test, ONS has concluded that
a post-out methodology is the best strategic option for delivery in the
2011 Census. Therefore, ONS will be delivering about 95 per cent of
questionnaires in 2011 via the post. The Test identified a number of areas
where further research and development is required in order for the full
benefits of post-out to be realised, including:
••
Like many large organisations, LAs sometimes have complex structures.
The CLM/ACLM arrangement was a good practical solution, with the
CLM of a sufficiently high level to give impetus to data requests from the
ACLM, when conflicting priorities between LA internal departments arose.
The Test has shown that:
••
••
••
relationship building and good relationship management is critical
it is essential that Chief Executives (CEs) are fully engaged with the
census
LAs with outsourced services consider the appointment of CLMs
and ACLMs carefully, and in particular, their place within the
council, so as to be able to:
• provide drive and leadership to their Executive Management
Team and within their LAs on the Census, and
• undertake Census activities and provide adequate resources
Service level agreement
A Service Level Agreement (SLA) detailed the ONS/LA partnership
agreement and work schedule. Although a generic SLA was endorsed
by the LA Steering Group, tailored drafts were required for each
LA. Some LA legal advisors wanted to establish reciprocal rights
and responsibilities over some sections of the ONS Standard Terms
and Conditions, and ONS was able to agree reciprocal rights on data
protection and intellectual property rights.
It is clear, however, that limited census resources and the inherent
difficulties in getting 376 different LAs’ legal departments to agree to
detailed SLAs is not logistically feasible for the 2011 Census.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
32
••
••
developing an address register to maximise coverage and quality to
support questionnaire delivery (mostly post-out with a small amount
of hand delivery), follow-up and the production of outputs. Three
key aspects of this are:
• matching three main national sources of addresses (Royal Mail
Postal Address File, National Land and Property Gazetteer
and Ordnance Survey Address Layer2) to find the common
elements and to identify differences for more research and
verification
• working with LAs and address product suppliers to resolve
mismatches that cannot be resolved through computer aided
and manual matching techniques alone
• conducting a targeted address check before the main
enumeration in 2011 in areas throughout England and Wales
where there has been difficulty resolving the mismatches and/
or have high levels of multiple occupancy
developing an approach to publicity and messages in support of
post-out strategy
working with postal service providers to ensure that our
requirements can be met, particularly for delivery accuracy, volumes
and timings
Income question
ONS is not recommending the inclusion of an income question in the
2011 Census. Extensive testing has indicated problems in terms of data
quality and public acceptability, and this was confirmed by the 2007
Test, which showed evidence of a significant decrease in response rates
(2.7 per cent difference) between households which received an income
question and those that did not. In addition, users indicated that an
income question should not be at the expense of lowered response rates
or poor quality data.
Outsourcing recruitment, training and pay
The 2007 Test provided evidence that the outsourcing of recruitment,
training and pay was feasible and provided significant benefits. ONS has
therefore decided that these services should be outsourced. The process
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
of selecting a supplier to provide these services for the 2009 rehearsal
and 2011 Census is underway.
A contract will be awarded to the successful supplier in February 2009.
Working with LAs and other stakeholders
ONS recognises that it must build on the successful activities in the Test
and the lessons learned, working with LAs and other stakeholders to
achieve a successful census. ONS must prioritise its effort to maximise
response amongst hard to count population sub-groups. ONS will work
closely with LAs and other stakeholders seeking to identify and reach
these sub-groups so that the 2011 Census can provide the highest quality
statistics possible.
Acknowledgements
The author wishes to acknowledge all of the invaluable assistance and
contributions to this article provided by colleagues in the Census Project
and Methodology teams, and also the comments received from referees.
S u m m e r 2008
References
1 Office for National Statistics (2006): The 2007 Census Test: a major
step towards the 2011 Census. Population Trends 126, pp16–28.
2 Office for National Statistics (2007) 2007 Census Test. Weblink:
www.statistics.gov.uk/census/2011Census/2011project/2007Test.asp
3 Office for National Statistics (2007): Census Advisory Group Papers,
at: www.statistics.gov.uk/census/2011Census/Consultations/agpapers.asp
4 Office for National Statistics (2007): Enumeration Targeting
Categorisation to be used in the 2007 Census Test, at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/census/pdfs/
EnumerationTargetingCategorisation.pdf
5. Office for National Statistics (2006), 2011 Census: Assessment of
initial user requirements on content for England and Wales, at:
www.ons.gov.uk/about/consultation/Consultations/consultationon–2011-census---responses/2011-census---responses.html
6. Office for National Statistics (2006): 2011 Census Local Authority
Action Plan, at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/census/2011Census/
Consultations/2011communities.asp
33
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l S ta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
S u m m e r 2 0 08
34
Tables
Table*
1.1 (1)
1.2 (2)
1.3 (4)
1.4 (6)
1.5 (7)
1.6 (5)
2.1 (8)
2.2 (new)
3.1 (9)
3.2 (10)
3.3 (11)
Page
Population
36
39
International.........................................................................................Selected countries
national................................................................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
subnational ........................................................................................ Government Office Regions
of England
age and sex..........................................................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
age, sex and legal marital status.........................................................England and Wales
Components of population change......................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
40
41
44
46
Vital statistics
summary..............................................................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Key demographic and health indicators..............................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
47
49
Live births
50
51
age of mother......................................................................................England and Wales
outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration..................England and Wales
Within marriage, within marriage to remarried women,
age of mother and birth order..............................................................England and Wales
52
Conceptions and abortions
4.1 (12)
age of women at conception...............................................................England and Wales (residents)
5.1 (13)
(In years) at birth and selected age......................................................Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
54
6.1 (14)
6.2 (15)
age and sex..........................................................................................England and Wales
subnational..........................................................................................Government Office Regions
..............................................................................................................of England
55
7.1 (18)
7.2 (19)
7.3 (20)
8.1 (21)
Expectation of life
Deaths
56
International migration
57
58
59
age and sex..........................................................................................United Kingdom
Country of last residence.....................................................................United Kingdom
Citizenship...........................................................................................United Kingdom
Internal migration
60
Movements within the United Kingdom.............................................United Kingdom
9.1 (22)
9.2 (23)
9.3 (24)
53
Marriage and divorce
61
62
63
age and sex..........................................................................................England and Wales
Remarriages: age, sex and previous marital status.............................England and Wales
Divorces: age and sex..........................................................................England and Wales
*Numbers in brackets indicate former table numbers in editions of Population Trends prior to spring
1999 (No 95). Former tables 16 and 17 (Deaths by selected causes, and Abortions) now appear in
Health Statistics Quarterly.
Population Trends tables are also available in XLS or CSV formats via our website
www.statistics.gov.uk
Symbols
.. not available
: not applicable
- nil or less than half the final digit shown
p provisional
35
N a t i o n a l St a t i s ti c s
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
Selected countries
Year
United
Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,684
1991
57,439
1996
58,164
7,501
7,566
7,569
7,588
7,813
7,959
9,673
9,818
9,859
9,862
9,979
10,137
8,540
8,760
8,891
8,958
8,982
8,363
610
498
515
545
587
661 12
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
8,043
8,084
8,118
8,175
8,233
8,280P
10,287
10,333
10,376
10,421
10,479
10,511P
7,910
7,869
7,824
7,781
7,740
7,680P
701 12
710 12
721 12
737 12
758 12
766 12
59,113
59,323
59,557
59,846
60,238
60,587
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1.7
1976–81
0.5
0.1
1981–86
1.2
0.5
1986–91
2.7
5.9
1991–96
2.5
3.7
1996–01
3.3
2.1
2001–02
3.5
5.1
2002–03
3.9
4.2
2003–04
4.8
7.0
2004–05
6.6
7.1
2005–06
5.8
5.7
3.0
0.8
0.1
2.4
3.6
2.6
4.5
4.2
4.3
5.6
3.1
Cyprus1
5.2
–36.7
3.0
6.8
1.5
11.7
0.5
15.4
–13.8
25.2
–10.8
12.1
–5.2
12.8
–5.7
15.5
–5.5
22.2
–5.3
28.5
–7.8
10.6
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
14.1
13.3
13.4
1976–80
12.5
11.5
12.5
1981–85
12.9
12.0
12.0
1986–90
13.7
11.6
12.1
1991–95
13.2
11.8
12.0
1996–00
12.0
10.2
11.2
2001
11.3
9.4
11.1
2002
11.3
9.7
10.8
2003
11.7
9.5
10.9
2004
12.0
9.7
11.1
2005
12.0
9.5
11.2
2006
12.4
9.3
..
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.8
12.6
12.1
1976–80
11.9
12.3
11.6
1981–85
11.7
12.0
11.4
1986–90
11.4
11.1
10.8
1991–95
11.1
10.4
10.4
1996–00
10.6
9.7
10.3
2001
10.2
9.3
10.1
2002
10.2
9.4
10.2
2003
10.3
9.5
10.4
2004
9.7
9.1
9.8
2005
9.7
9.1
9.8
2006
9.4
8.9
..
Czech
Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany2
Greece3
Hungary
9,810
10,094
10,293
10,340
10,309
10,315
4,963
5,073
5,121
5,120
5,154
5,262
1,369
1,435
1,482
1,534
1,566
1,416
4,612
4,726
4,800
4,918
5,014
5,125
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
58,026
78,313
78,337
78,408
77,720
79,984
81,896
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,967
10,247
10,709
10,370
10,590
10,712
10,631
10,346
10,193
10,224
10,201
10,202
10,207
10,234
10,280P
5,359
5,374
5,387
5,401
5,416
5,427P
1,364
1,359
1,354
1,349
1346
1,345P
5,188
5,201
5,213
5,228
5,246
5,270P
59,322
59,678
60,028
60,381
60,996
61,350P
82,340
82,482
82,520
82,501
82,464
82,370P
10,950
10,988
11,024
11,062
11,104
11,150P
10,188
10,159
10,130
10,107
10,087
10,077P
5.8
3.9
0.9
–0.6
0.1
–1.8
9.6
6.6
7.0
4.2
–12.4
–7.3
4.9
3.1
4.9
3.9
3.8
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.9
3.4
4.6
1.7
0.5
–0.2
–0.4
–1.1
7.6
12.3
4.9
5.6
9.0
4.5
4.4
2.4
3.4
3.8
4.1
4.2
2.3
–1.5
–5.4
–3.0
–0.1
–3.7
–3.7
–3.7
–2.2
–0.7
6.5
4.8
5.0
5.4
3.4
4.5
6.0
5.9
5.9
10.2
5.8
0.1
0.2
–1.8
5.8
4.8
1.1
–2.2
0.1
0.5
2.6
4.5
4.4
1.9
0.0
1.3
4.2
3.7
2.8
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.0
–2.8
–2.9
–2.3
–2.0
–1.0
13.2
15.1
13.7
12.7
9.8
8.3
17.7
19.0
20.2
18.8
16.9
13.2
17.8
17.1
13.5
12.7
11.1
8.8
14.6
12.0
10.2
11.5
13.1
12.6
15.4
15.0
15.6
15.5
10.7
8.9
13.1
13.6
13.4
12.7
12.9
11.3
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.8
12.7
12.7
10.5
10.5
10.7
9.8
10.9
9.6
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.6
9.9
10.2
16.1
15.8
12.3
11.8
11.7
9.8
8.6
8.5
8.6
9.0
9.2
9.6
11.6
11.1
11.2
11.3
10.9
11.3
8.9
9.6
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.3
12.2
11.9
12.0
11.9
11.9
12.0
9.3
9.6
9.6
10.4
10.7
11.1
10.8
10.7
10.9
11.0
11.0
11.2
13.0
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
13.0
8.9
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.3
8.2
9.3
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.7
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.4
9.7
9.9
9.8
12.9
11.3
11.9
12.9
14.0
9.9
10.4
10.0
10.2
9.0
7.7
6.9
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.2
6.7
12.4
12.5
12.8
12.4
11.6
10.8
10.5
10.6
10.9
10.5
10.6
10.2
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.5
11.9
11.2
11.1
12.1
12.3
11.9
13.9
13.1
13.6
13.5
13.4
13.2
12.9
12.9
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.8
9.8
9.6
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.5
9.1
9.2
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.6
10.8
10.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.5
9.7
11.9
12.9
13.7
13.5
14.3
13.9
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.1
9.1
9.1
8.9
9.2
9.2
8.4
8.6
..
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.0
10.1
9.9
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.5
13.0
13.1
13.4
13.1
13.5
13.1
14.2
14.3
14.3
14.2
14.6
14.8
Note:
Estimated population (mid-year), live birth and death rates up to the latest available data,
as given in the United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics (May 2008), the United Nations
Demographic Yearbook (May 2008), and the Eurostat Yearbook 2005, (May 2007).
1 Republic of Cyprus - Greek Cypriot controlled area only
2 Including former GDR throughout.
3 Greece - mid-year population excludes armed forces stationed outside the country but
includes alien forces stationed in the area.
4 Malta - including work and resident permit holders and foreigners residing in Malta.
5 Poland - excluding civilian aliens within the country but including civilian nationals
temporarily outside the country. Average year data for 2000 and 2001 contain revised data
according to the final results of the population census 2002.
6 Portugal - including the Azores and Madeira islands.
7 Spain - including the Balearic and Canary Islands.
8 For 1971 the European Union consisted of the 6 original member countries. This has since
been expanded to include: 9 countries (1976–EU15); 10 Countries (2004–EU25); 2 countries
(2007–EU27). In this table, all totals include the EU27.
9 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of which has not yet
been determined.
Office for National Statistics
36
10.9
10.9
10.7
10.3
10.2
10.2
10 Japan - excluding diplomatic personnel outside the country and foreign military and civilian
personnel and their dependants stationed in the area. Rates are based on births to or
deaths of Japanese nationals only.
11USA - excluding armed forces overseas and civilian citizens absent from the country for
extended periods.
12Indicates population estimates of uncertain reliability.
13 Data refer to 15 April.
14Figures were updated taking into account the results of the 2002 All Russian Population
Census.
15Mid-year estimates have been adjusted for under-enumeration.
16For statistical purposes the data for China do not include those for the Hong Kong SAR,
Macao SAR and Taiwan province of China. Data for the period 1996 to 2000 have been
adjusted on the basis of the Population Census of 2000. Data from 2001 to 2004 have
been estimated on the basis of the annual national sample surveys of Population Changes.
Estimate of uncertain reliability. Death rates for 1999–2003 and birth rates for 2000–2003
were obtained by the Sample Survey of Population Change 2003 in China.
17Rate is for 1990–1995.
p provisional.
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
continued
Selected countries
Year
S u m m e r 2008
Irish
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Republic
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
Luxem–
Malta4
bourg
Nether–
Poland5 Portugal6 Romania Slovakia Slovenia
Spain7
lands
Population (thousands)
1971
2,992
54,073
2,366
3,160
342
330
13,194
32,800
8,644
20,470
4,540
1,732
34,216
1976
3,238
55,718
2,465
3,315
361
330
13,774
34,360
9,356
21,450
4,764
1,809
36,118
1981
3,443
56,502
2,515
3,422
365
322
14,247
35,902
9,851
22,353
4,996
1,910
37,741
1986
3,543
56,596
2,588
3,560
368
344
14,572
37,456
10,011
22,823
5,179
1,975
38,536
1991
3,526
56,751
2,662
3,742
387
358
15,070
38,245
9,871
23,185
5,283
2,002
38,920
56,860
2,457
3,602
414
380
15,530
38,618
10,058
22,608
5,374
1,991
39,479
1996
3,626 13
56,978
2,355
3,481
442
393
16,046
38,251
10,293
22,408
5,380
1,992
40,721
2001
3,839 13
57,157
2,339
3,469
446
396
16,149
38,232
10,368
21,795
5,379
1,996
41,314
2002
3,917 13
57,605
2,325
3,454
450
399
16,225
38,195
10,441
21,734
5,379
1,997
42,005
2003
3,996 13
58,175
2,313
3,436
453
401
16,282
38,180
10,502
21,673
5,382
1,997
42,692
2004
4,044 13
58,607
2,301
3,414
457
404
16,320
38,161
10,549
21,624
5,387
2,001
43,398
2005
4,131 13
58,880P
2,295
3,390P
470P
410P
16,340P
38,130
10,580
21,580P
5,400P
2,010
44,100
2006
4,230 13
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
16.4
6.1
8.4
9.8
10.7
0.0
8.8
9.5
16.5
9.6
9.9
8.9
11.1
1976–81
12.7
2.8
4.1
6.5
2.5
–4.8
6.9
9.0
10.6
8.4
9.7
11.2
9.0
1981–86
5.8
0.3
5.8
8.1
1.8
13.7
4.6
8.7
3.2
4.2
7.3
6.8
4.2
1986–91
–1.0
0.5
5.7
10.2
10.2
8.1
6.8
4.2
–2.8
3.2
4.0
2.7
2.0
1991–96
4.3
0.4
–12.8
–1.7
13.9
8.4
6.1
2.0
3.8
–5.0
3.4
–1.1
2.9
1996–01
11.7
0.4
–8.3
–6.7
13.5
6.8
6.6
–1.9
4.7
–1.8
0.2
0.1
6.3
2001–02
20.3
3.1
–6.8
–3.4
9.0
7.6
6.4
–0.5
7.3
–27.4
–0.2
2.0
14.6
2002–03
20.2
7.8
–6.0
–4.3
9.0
7.6
4.7
–1.0
7.0
–2.8
0.0
0.5
16.7
2003–04
12.0
9.9
–5.2
–5.2
6.7
5.0
3.5
–0.4
5.8
–2.8
0.6
0.0
16.4
2004–05
21.5
7.4
–5.2
–6.4
8.8
7.5
2.3
–0.5
4.5
–2.3
0.9
2.0
16.5
2005–06
24.0
4.7
–2.6
–7.0
28.4
14.9
1.2
–0.8
2.9
–2.0
2.4
4.5
16.2
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
16.0
14.4
16.4
11.6
17.5
14.9
17.9
20.3
19.3
19.7
16.4
19.2
1971–75
22.2
1976–80
21.3
12.6
13.9
15.4
11.2
17.0
12.6
19.3
17.9
18.9
20.3
16.3
17.1
1981–85
19.2
10.6
15.2
16.0
11.6
15.3
12.2
19.0
14.5
15.6
18.0
14.2
12.8
1986–90
15.8
9.8
15.3
15.8
12.2
16.0
12.8
15.5
11.9
15.8
15.8
12.3
10.8
1991–95
14.0
9.6
10.8
13.1
13.3
14.0
12.8
12.9
11.4
11.1
13.3
10.0
9.8
1996–00
14.2
9.2
8.0
10.4
13.1
12.0
12.6
10.4
11.3
10.4
10.7
9.1
9.5
2001
15.1
9.2
8.3
9.1
12.4
10.0
12.6
9.6
11.0
9.8
9.5
8.8
10.0
2002
15.5
9.4
8.6
8.7
12.0
9.6
12.5
9.3
11.0
9.7
9.5
8.8
10.2
2003
15.4
9.4
9.0
8.9
11.8
10.1
12.3
9.2
10.8
9.8
9.6
8.7
10.5
2004
15.3
9.7
8.8
8.9
11.8
9.7
11.9
9.3
10.4
10.0
10.0
9.0
10.6
2005
14.8
9.5
9.4
9.0
11.8
9.6
11.5
9.6
10.4
10.2
9.3
9.1
10.7
2006
15.2
9.5
9.7
9.2
11.7
..
11.3
9.8
10.0
10.1
10.0
9.4
10.9
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
11.0
9.8
11.6
9.0
12.2
9.0
8.3
8.4
11.0
9.4
9.4
10.0
8.5
1976–80
10.2
9.7
12.6
10.1
11.5
9.0
8.1
9.2
10.1
9.8
9.8
9.8
8.0
1981–85
9.4
9.5
12.8
10.6
11.2
8.2
8.3
9.6
9.6
10.3
10.1
10.3
7.7
1986–90
9.1
9.4
12.4
10.3
10.5
7.4
8.5
10.0
9.6
10.8
10.1
9.6
8.2
1991–95
8.8
9.7
14.8
12.0
9.8
7.6
8.8
10.2
10.4
11.5
9.9
9.7
8.7
1996–00
8.5
9.8
13.9
11.5
9.0
7.7
8.8
9.8
10.5
12.0
9.7
9.5
9.1
2001
7.9
9.6
14.0
11.6
8.4
7.6
8.7
9.5
10.2
11.6
9.7
9.3
8.9
2002
7.5
9.8
13.9
11.8
8.4
7.8
8.8
9.4
10.2
12.4
9.6
9.4
8.9
2003
7.2
10.2
13.9
11.9
9.0
7.7
8.7
9.6
10.4
12.3
9.7
9.7
9.2
2004
7.0
9.4
13.9
12.0
7.6
7.2
8.4
9.5
9.7
11.9
9.6
9.3
8.7
2005
6.6
9.7
14.2
12.8
8.0
7.8
8.4
9.7
10.2
12.1
9.9
9.4
8.9
2006
6.5
9.5
14.5
13.2
8.0
..
8.3
9.7
9.7
11.9
9.9
9.1
8.4
See notes on first page of table.
37
Office for National Statistics
Sweden
8,098
8,222
8,320
8,370
8,617
8,841
8,896
8,925
8,958
8,994
9,030
9,090P
3.1
2.4
1.2
5.9
5.1
1.2
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.0
6.6
13.5
11.6
11.3
13.2
13.3
10.2
10.3
10.7
11.1
11.2
11.2
11.7
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.1
10.9
10.6
10.5
10.6
10.4
10.1
10.2
10.0
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 1.1
continued
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Population and vital rates: international
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
EU 8
Russian
Australia
Canada
Federation
New
China
India Japan10
USA11
Zealand
9
Population (thousands)
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
438,728
450,468
459,807
465,336
473,094
478,084
130,934
135,027
139,225
144,154
148,245
148,160 14
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,284
18,311 15
22,026
23,517
24,900
26,204
28,031
29,611 15
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,477
3,732
852,290 16
937,170 16
1,008,460 16
1,086,733 16
1,170,100 16
1,217,550 16
1996
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
482,464
483,643
485,617
487,720
490,125
491,998P
145,976 14
145,306 14
144,566 14
143,821 14
143,150 14
..
19,413 15
19,641 15
19,873 15
20,111 15
20,409
20,700 15
31,021 15
31,373 15
31,669 15
31,974 15
32,312 15
32,980 15,P
3,880
3,939
4,009
4,061
4,099
4,180
1,271,850 16
1,280,400 16
1,288,400 16
1,296,075 16
1,303,720 16
..
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
5.4
1976–81
4.1
1981–86
2.4
1986–91
3.3
1991–96
2.1
1996–01
1.8
6.3
6.2
7.1
5.7
–1.7
–2.9
14.8
12.7
14.7
15.8
11.9
12.0
13.5
11.8
10.5
13.9
11.3
9.5
18.2
2.0
7.6
9.6
14.7
7.9
19.9
15.2
15.5
15.3
10.3
8.9
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
–4.6
–5.1
–5.2
–4.7
..
11.7
11.8
12.0
14.8
14.3
11.3
9.4
9.6
10.6
20.7
15.2
17.8
13.0
9.4
19.8
6.7
6.2
6.0
5.9
..
Live birth rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
..
..
1976–80
..
..
1981–85
..
..
1986–90
..
..
1991–95
11.4
10.2
1996–00
10.6
8.6
18.8
15.7
15.6
15.1
14.7
13.4
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.8
13.6
11.4
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.1
16.9
14.9
27.2
18.6
19.2
..
18.5 17
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.5
10.2
10.4
12.7
12.8
12.6
12.7
12.9
12.9
10.8
10.5
10.6
10.5
10.6
..
14.4
13.7
14.0
14.3
14.1
14.1
13.4 16
12.9 16
12.4 16
12.3 16
12.4 16
..
2.4
4.1
4.3
4.9
3.8
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.4
..
551,311
105,145
617,248
113,094
675,185
117,902
767,199
121,672
851,897
123,964
12
942,157 125,757
12
1,035,066 127,130
1,050,640 12
127,400
12
1,068,214 127,650
12
1,085,600 127,670
12
1,101,000 127,773
12
1,117,730 127,760
Year
207,661
218,035
229,958
240,680
252,639
269,394
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
285,108
287,985
290,850
293,623
296,410
..
1996
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
23.9
15.1
10.0
18.8
8.5
10.9
27.3
6.4
9.3
22.1
3.8
9.9
21.1
2.9
12.1
19.7
2.2
11.7
15.0
2.1
10.1
16.7
2.0
9.9
16.3
0.2
9.5
14.2
0.8
9.5
15.2
–0.1
..
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
35.6
18.6
33.4
14.9
..
12.6
..
10.6
..
9.7
..
9.5
25.4
9.2
25.0
9.1
24.8
8.8
24.1
8.7
23.8
8.3
..
8.6
15.3
15.2
15.7
16.0
13.1
14.3
1971–75
1976–80
1981–85
1986–90
1991–95
1996–00
14.1
14.0
14.1
14.0
14.0
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
15.5
6.4
13.8
6.1
..
6.1
..
6.4
..
7.0
..
7.4
8.4
7.6
8.1
7.7
8.0
8.0
7.5
8.1
7.6
8.5
..
..
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.5
1971–75
1976–80
1981–85
1986–90
1991–95
1996–00
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.2
..
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Death rate (per 1,000 population per annum)
1971–75
1976–80
1981–85
1986–90
1991–95
1996–00
..
..
..
..
10.4
10.2
..
..
..
..
13.7
14.3
8.2
7.6
7.3
7.2
7.0
6.9
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.3
7.8
7.2
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
7.8
7.2
7.3
6.6
6.7
..
..
..
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
9.9
9.9
10.1
9.7
9.8
..
15.4
16.1
16.4
16.0
15.2
15.0
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.2
..
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.6
6.7
6.4 16
6.4 16
6.4 16
6.4 16
6.5 16
..
See notes on first page of table.
Office for National Statistics
38
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 1.2
Population: national
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year
S u m m e r 2008
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
England
and Wales
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Estimates 1971
55,928
54,388
49,152
46,412
2,740
5,236
1,540
1976
56,216
54,693
49,459
46,660
2,799
5,233
1,524
1981
56,357
54,815
49,634
46,821
2,813
5,180
1,543
1986
56,684
55,110
49,999
47,188
2,811
5,112
1,574
1991
57,439
55,831
50,748
47,875
2,873
5,083
1,607
1993
57,714
56,078
50,986
48,102
2,884
5,092
1,636
1994
57,862
56,218
51,116
48,229
2,887
5,102
1,644
1995
58,025
56,376
51,272
48,383
2,889
5,104
1,649
1996
58,164
56,503
51,410
48,519
2,891
5,092
1,662
1997
58,314
56,643
51,560
48,665
2,895
5,083
1,671
1998
58,475
56,797
51,720
48,821
2,900
5,077
1,678
1999
58,684
57,005
51,933
49,033
2,901
5,072
1,679
2000
58,886
57,203
52,140
49,233
2,907
5,063
1,683
2001
59,113
57,424
52,360
49,450
2,910
5,064
1,689
59,323
57,627
52,572
49,652
2,920
5,055
1,697
2002 1
2003 1
59,557
57,855
52,797
49,866
2,931
5,057
1,703
59,846
58,136
53,057
50,111
2,946
5,078
1,710
2004 1
60,238
58,514
53,419
50,466
2,954
5,095
1,724
2005 1
2006
60,587
58,846
53,729
50,763
2,966
5,117
1,742
2006 by age group (percentages)
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.4
5.2
6.4
0–4 5–15 13.3
13.2
13.3
13.2
13.5
12.8
15.4
16–44 40.2
40.2
40.3
40.4
37.5
39.5
41.3
45–64M/59F 22.0
22.0
21.9
21.9
22.9
23.3
20.6
65M/60F–74 11.0
11.1
11.0
10.9
12.2
11.7
10.0
75 and over 7.7
7.7
7.8
7.7
8.5
7.5
6.3
Projections2 2006
60,587
58,846
53,729
50,763
2,966
5,117
1,742
2011
62,761
60,950
55,744
52,706
3,038
5,206
1,812
2016
64,975
63,107
57,837
54,724
3,113
5,270
1,868
2021
67,191
65,269
59,943
56,757
3,186
5,326
1,922
2026
69,260
67,294
61,931
58,682
3,248
5,363
1,966
2031
71,100
69,101
63,727
60,432
3,296
5,374
1,999
2031 by age group (percentages)
0–4
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.1
4.7
5.7
5–15
12.4
12.4
12.5
12.5
12.1
11.2
13.4
16–44
36.4
36.4
36.6
36.8
33.7
34.3
35.5
23.4
23.4
23.3
23.3
23.5
24.4
23.9
45–643
10.6
10.6
10.5
10.4
12.0
12.4
10.7
65–743
75 and over
11.6
11.6
11.5
11.4
13.7
12.9
10.9
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales and the United Kingdom have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved
estimates of international migration.
2 National projections based on mid-2006 population estimates.
3 Between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
Between 2024 and 2026, state pension age will increase from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women.
39
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 1.3
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Population: subnational
Government Office Regions of England
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
Mid-year
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and The
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
Estimates 1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,679
2,671
2,636
2,594
2,587
7,108
7,043
6,940
6,833
6,843
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,884
4,936
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,908
4,011
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
2,594
2,589
2,583
2,576
2,568
6,847
6,839
6,828
6,810
6,794
4,954
4,960
4,961
4,961
4,958
1998 1999 2000
2001
2002 1
2,561
2,550
2,543
2,540
2,541
6,792
6,773
6,774
6,773
6,778
2003 1
2004 1
2005 1
2006
2,541
2,542
2,550
2,556
5.4 13.0 39.0 23.0 11.7 7.9 2005 by age group (percentages)
0–4 5–15 16–44 45–64M/59F 65M/60F–74 75 and over East
London
South
East
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,180
5,230
4,454
4,672
4,854
4,999
5,121
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,774
6,829
6,830
7,029
7,245
7,468
7,629
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,548
4,688
4,056
4,072
4,092
4,108
4,120
5,246
5,249
5,257
5,263
5,262
5,154
5,178
5,206
5,233
5,267
6,844
6,874
6,913
6,974
7,015
7,673
7,712
7,763
7,800
7,853
4,734
4,757
4,782
4,793
4,827
4,958
4,956
4,959
4,977
5,002
4,133
4,152
4,168
4,190
4,222
5,271
5,272
5,270
5,281
5,295
5,302
5,339
5,375
5,400
5,433
7,065
7,154
7,237
7,322
7,362
7,889
7,955
7,991
8,023
8,047
4,849
4,881
4,917
4,943
4,973
6,800
6,820
6,840
6,853
5,028
5,064
5,108
5,142
4,254
4,291
4,328
4,364
5,312
5,327
5,351
5,367
5,475
5,511
5,563
5,607
7,364
7,389
7,456
7,512
8,087
8,125
8,185
8,238
5,005
5,042
5,087
5,124
5.7 13.6 39.5 22.3 11.3 7.6 5.7 13.3 40.2 22.0 11.1 7.6 5.5 13.3 39.5 22.6 11.3 7.8 6.0 13.7 39.2 21.9 11.4 7.8 5.8 13.5 38.7 22.5 11.4 8.1 6.8 12.4 48.5 18.5 8.1 5.7 5.7 13.5 39.0 22.5 11.1 8.2 Projections2 2006
2,543
6,863
5,125
4,355
5,362
5,604
7,512
8,228
2011
2,544
6,959
5,259
4,496
5,438
5,808
7,723
8,440
2016
2,549
7,066
5,398
4,637
5,522
6,014
7,946
8,661
2021
2,557
7,178
5,536
4,779
5,612
6,221
8,160
8,891
2026
2,562
7,276
5,664
4,910
5,692
6,412
8,344
9,111
2029
2,562
7,323
5,730
4,977
5,732
6,515
8,443
9,229
2029 by age group (percentages)
0–4 4.9
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.6
5.3
6.4
5.3
5–15 11.6
12.1
12.1
11.8
12.6
12.1
12.0
12.1
16–44 34.7
35.9
36.5
34.5
35.3
34.3
44.3
35.2
45–643 24.3
24.5
24.2
25.0
24.1
24.9
23.5
24.7
65–743 12.2
11.0
10.8
11.5
10.7
11.1
7.3
10.8
75 and over 12.3
11.2
11.1
12.2
11.7
12.3
6.5
11.9
South
West
5.2
12.8
37.1 23.0
12.4
9.4
5,122
5,302
5,484
5,672
5,851
5,947
4.7
11.2
33.0
25.0
12.2
13.8
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales and the United Kingdom have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved
estimates of international migration.
2 These projections are based on the revised mid-2004 population estimates and are consistent with the 2004-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department.
3 Between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
Between 2024 and 2026, state pension age will increase from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women.
Office for National Statistics
40
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 1.4
S u m m e r 2008
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
65M/60F1
64M/59F1 and over
United Kingdom
Persons
1981
56,357
730
2,726
8,147
9,019 8,010
6,774
9,540
2,935
5,195
2,677
..
..
12,543 33,780
1986
56,684
748
2,886
7,143
9,200 8,007
7,711
9,212
3,069
5,020
2,971
716
..
11,645 34,725
1991
57,439
790
3,077
7,141
8,168 8,898
7,918
9,500
2,888
5,067
3,119
626
248
11,685 35,197
1996
58,164
719
3,019
7,544
7,231 9,131
7,958 10,553
2,785
5,066
3,129
711
317
12,018 35,498
2000
58,886
682
2,869
7,652
7,139 8,646
8,678 11,011
2,900
4,940
3,249
755
364
11,959 36,138
2001
59,113
663
2,819
7,624
7,261 8,475
8,846 11,168
2,884
4,947
3,296
753
377
11,863 36,406
2002 2
59,323
661
2,753
7,603
7,400 8,264
9,004 11,307
2,892
4,967
3,344
738
388
11,785 36,622
2003 2
59,557
680
2,706
7,546
7,573 8,084
9,105 11,412
2,949
5,001
3,398
706
399
11,720 36,826
10,035
10,313
10,557
10,649
10,788
10,845
10,916
11,012
2004 2
59,846
705
2,686
7,475
7,739 7,954
9,185 11,507
3,027
5,028
3,431
702
409
11,645 37,083
2005 2
60,238
716
2,713
7,373
7,886 7,935
9,245 11,616
3,114
5,046
3,420
755
419
11,589 37,418
2006
60,587
732
2,765
7,241
8,020 7,896
9,262 11,744
3,240
5,029
3,416
820
423
11,537 37,707
Males 1981
27,412
374
1,400
4,184
4,596 4,035
3,409
4,711
1,376
2,264
922
..
..
6,439 17,646
1986
27,542
384
1,478
3,664
4,663 4,022
3,864
4,572
1,463
2,206
1,060
166
..
5,968 18,142
1991
27,909
403
1,572
3,655
4,146 4,432
3,949
4,732
1,390
2,272
1,146
166
46
5,976 18,303
1996
28,287
369
1,547
3,857
3,652 4,540
3,954
5,244
1,360
2,311
1,187
201
65
6,148 18,375
2000
28,690
350
1,469
3,920
3,606 4,292
4,298
5,457
1,420
2,294
1,278
225
81
6,128 18,685
2001
28,832
338
1,445
3,906
3,672 4,215
4,382
5,534
1,412
2,308
1,308
227
85
6,077 18,827
2002 2
28,964
338
1,408
3,897
3,758 4,114
4,462
5,594
1,414
2,325
1,338
226
89
6,037 18,949
2003 2
29,109
349
1,384
3,868
3,855 4,024
4,514
5,646
1,440
2,347
1,369
219
94
6,006 19,075
11,117
11,232
11,344
2004 2
29,278
362
1,376
3,832
3,953 3,960
4,546
5,691
1,479
2,365
1,392
223
98
5,971 19,229
2005 2
29,497
367
1,389
3,781
4,030 3,952
4,581
5,745
1,522
2,380
1,400
247
103
5,941 19,426
2006
29,694
374
1,416
3,709
4,108 3,940
4,586
5,804
1,584
2,379
1,413
273
106
5,912 19,611
Females 1981
28,946
356
1,327
3,963
4,423 3,975
3,365
4,829
1,559
2,931
1,756
..
..
6,104 16,134
1986
29,142
364
1,408
3,480
4,538 3,985
3,847
4,639
1,606
2,814
1,911
550
..
5,678 16,583
1991
29,530
387
1,505
3,487
4,021 4,466
3,968
4,769
1,498
2,795
1,972
460
202
5,709 16,894
1996
29,877
350
1,472
3,687
3,579 4,591
4,005
5,309
1,426
2,755
1,942
509
252
5,870 17,123
2000
30,196
333
1,399
3,732
3,533 4,353
4,380
5,554
1,481
2,646
1,971
530
283
5,832 17,453
2001
30,281
324
1,375
3,718
3,589 4,260
4,465
5,634
1,473
2,640
1,987
526
292
5,786 17,579
2002 2
30,359
323
1,346
3,706
3,642 4,150
4,542
5,713
1,478
2,642
2,006
513
299
5,748 17,673
2003 2
30,449
331
1,322
3,678
3,718 4,060
4,590
5,766
1,509
2,654
2,029
487
305
5,714 17,751
4,078
4,130
4,171
2004 2
30,568
343
1,310
3,642
3,785 3,993
4,639
5,816
1,548
2,662
2,040
479
310
5,674 17,854
2005 2
30,741
349
1,324
3,592
3,856 3,983
4,663
5,871
1,591
2,666
2,020
509
316
5,647 17,992
2006
30,893
357
1,349
3,532
3,912 3,956
4,675
5,940
1,656
2,650
2,002
547
317
5,625 18,096
England and Wales
Persons
1981
49,634
634
2,372
7,085
7,873 7,086
5,996
8,433
2,607
4,619
2,388
383
157
10,910 29,796
1986
49,999
654
2,522
6,226
8,061 7,052
6,856
8,136
2,725
4,470
2,655
461
182
10,161 30,647
1991
50,748
698
2,713
6,248
7,165 7,862
7,022
8,407
2,553
4,506
2,790
561
223
10,247 31,100
1996
51,410
637
2,668
6,636
6,336 8,076
7,017
9,363
2,457
4,496
2,801
639
285
10,584 31,353
2000
52,140
607
2,544
6,757
6,275 7,682
7,661
9,764
2,564
4,372
2,907
680
328
10,572 31,977
2001
52,360
589
2,502
6,740
6,387 7,536
7,816
9,898
2,549
4,377
2,947
677
340
10,495 32,226
2002 2
52,572
589
2,445
6,728
6,518 7,357
7,964 10,018
2,555
4,394
2,989
664
351
10,437 32,435
2003 2
52,797
607
2,404
6,682
6,679 7,203
8,058 10,104
2,606
4,422
3,037
634
360
10,388 32,626
3,327
3,432
3,630
3,764
3,878
3,928
3,978
4,028
6,708
6,881
6,927
6,885
6,911
6,917
6,938
6,984
7,039
7,102
7,172
8,928
9,190
9,400
9,474
9,591
9,639
9,700
9,783
2004 2
53,057
629
2,390
6,618
6,836 7,090
8,133 10,177
2,675
4,445
3,063
632
370
10,326 32,856
2005 2
53,419
639
2,415
6,528
6,974 7,078
8,194 10,264
2,757
4,461
3,052
680
379
10,278 33,164
2006
53,729
653
2,462
6,412
7,095 7,040
8,213 10,369
2,874
4,444
3,045
740
382
10,235 33,417
Males 1981
24,160
324
1,218
3,639
4,011 3,569
3,024
4,178
1,227
2,020
825
94
32
5,601 15,589
1986
24,311
335
1,292
3,194
4,083 3,542
3,438
4,053
1,302
1,972
951
115
35
5,208 16,031
1991
24,681
356
1,385
3,198
3,638 3,920
3,504
4,199
1,234
2,027
1,029
150
42
5,240 16,193
1996
25,030
327
1,368
3,393
3,202 4,020
3,489
4,659
1,205
2,059
1,067
182
59
5,416 16,247
2000
25,438
311
1,303
3,462
3,172 3,823
3,802
4,842
1,259
2,040
1,148
204
73
5,416 16,556
2001
25,574
301
1,281
3,453
3,231 3,758
3,881
4,907
1,252
2,052
1,175
206
77
5,376 16,688
2002 2
25,704
301
1,249
3,448
3,311 3,672
3,957
4,958
1,253
2,067
1,202
204
81
5,346 16,804
2003 2
25,841
312
1,230
3,425
3,399 3,594
4,007
5,002
1,276
2,085
1,229
198
85
5,324 16,920
9,875
9,977
10,077
2004 2
25,995
323
1,225
3,394
3,493 3,538
4,036
5,037
1,310
2,100
1,248
202
89
5,295 17,060
2005 2
26,197
327
1,237
3,348
3,565 3,530
4,073
5,080
1,351
2,113
1,256
224
94
5,270 17,241
2006
26,371
334
1,261
3,284
3,636 3,517
4,080
5,130
1,407
2,111
1,267
248
96
5,245 17,405
Females 1981
25,474
310
1,154
3,446
3,863 3,517
2,972
4,255
1,380
2,599
1,564
289
126
5,309 14,207
1986
25,687
319
1,231
3,032
3,978 3,509
3,418
4,083
1,422
2,498
1,704
346
148
4,953 14,616
1991
26,067
342
1,328
3,050
3,527 3,943
3,517
4,208
1,319
2,479
1,761
411
181
5,007 14,908
1996
26,381
310
1,300
3,243
3,134 4,056
3,528
4,704
1,252
2,437
1,734
457
227
5,168 15,106
2000
26,702
296
1,241
3,296
3,103 3,859
3,859
4,923
1,304
2,332
1,758
476
255
5,155 15,421
1,771
471
263
5,119 15,538
2001
26,786
288
1,220
3,287
3,156 3,778
3,935
4,992
1,297
2,326
2002 2
26,868
287
1,195
3,280
3,207 3,685
4,007
5,060
1,302
2,328
1,787
460
270
5,091 15,631
2003 2
26,956
295
1,175
3,256
3,280 3,610
4,051
5,103
1,329
2,338
1,807
436
275
5,064 15,705
3,640
3,685
3,722
5,958
6,118
6,152
6,107
2004 2
2005 2
2006
6,235
6,292
6,355
27,062
27,223
27,358
306
312
319
1,165
1,178
1,201
3,224
3,180
3,127
3,342
3,409
3,458
3,552
3,548
3,523
4,097
4,121
4,134
5,141
5,183
5,239
1,365
1,406
1,466
2,345
2,348
2,333
1,815
1,796
1,778
430
456
492
280
285
286
5,031
5,008
4,990
15,796
15,922
16,012
2,970
3,072
3,248
3,367
3,466
3,510
3,554
3,597
6,126
6,129
6,146
6,186
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 Between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
2 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales and the United Kingdom have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved
estimates of international migration.
Tel no. for all enquiries relating to population estimates:- 01329 813318
41
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 1.4
continued
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
Under
16–
65M/65F1
over
16
64M/59F1 and over
England
Persons
1981
46,821
598
2,235
6,678
7,440 6,703
5,663
7,948
2,449
4,347
2,249
362
149
10,285 28,133
8,403
1986
47,188
618
2,380
5,869
7,623 6,682
6,478
7,672
2,559
4,199
2,501
435
172
9,583 28,962
8,643
1991
47,875
660
2,560
5,885
6,772 7,460
6,633
7,920
2,399
4,222
2,626
529
210
9,658 29,390
8,827
1996
48,519
603
2,523
6,255
5,985 7,667
6,638
8,822
2,310
4,217
2,631
602
269
9,985 29,639
8,895
2000
49,233
575
2,406
6,375
5,923 7,304
7,257
9,199
2,411
4,107
2,727
641
309
9,980 30,243
9,010
2001
49,450
558
2,366
6,359
6,032 7,171
7,407
9,327
2,395
4,113
2,764
638
321
9,908 30,487
9,055
2002 2
49,652
559
2,313
6,348
6,153 7,003
7,550
9,439
2,399
4,129
2,803
625
331
9,855 30,686
9,111
2003 2
49,866
576
2,275
6,305
6,304 6,859
7,641
9,522
2,445
4,155
2,850
596
340
9,812 30,867
9,188
2004 2
50,111
597
2,262
6,245
6,450 6,751
7,712
9,591
2,509
4,175
2,875
593
349
9,755 31,083
2005 2
50,466
606
2,289
6,161
6,583 6,742
7,772
9,675
2,586
4,189
2,865
638
357
9,713 31,384
2006
50,763
620
2,335
6,051
6,696 6,708
7,793
9,777
2,697
4,171
2,860
695
360
9,674 31,627
Males 1981
22,795
306
1,147
3,430
3,790 3,377
2,856
3,938
1,154
1,902
777
89
30
5,280 14,717
1986
22,949
317
1,219
3,010
3,862 3,357
3,249
3,822
1,224
1,853
897
108
33
4,911 15,147
1991
23,291
336
1,307
3,011
3,439 3,721
3,311
3,957
1,159
1,900
970
141
39
4,938 15,302
1996
23,629
309
1,294
3,198
3,023 3,818
3,302
4,390
1,133
1,932
1,003
172
55
5,110 15,358
2000
24,030
294
1,232
3,266
2,995 3,638
3,604
4,562
1,184
1,917
1,078
192
69
5,113 15,661
2001
24,166
285
1,212
3,257
3,053 3,580
3,681
4,624
1,176
1,928
1,103
194
73
5,075 15,793
2002 2
24,290
286
1,182
3,253
3,127 3,500
3,755
4,673
1,176
1,942
1,128
193
77
5,047 15,904
2003 2
24,419
296
1,163
3,232
3,209 3,425
3,803
4,715
1,197
1,958
1,154
186
80
5,028 16,012
2004 2
24,563
306
1,159
3,202
3,297 3,371
3,831
4,748
1,228
1,972
1,172
190
84
5,001 16,143
2005 2
24,758
310
1,172
3,160
3,365 3,365
3,868
4,791
1,267
1,984
1,179
210
88
4,979 16,317
2006
24,926
317
1,196
3,100
3,432 3,353
3,875
4,839
1,320
1,981
1,190
233
91
4,957 16,475
Females 1981
24,026
292
1,088
3,248
3,650 3,327
2,807
4,009
1,295
2,445
1,472
273
119
5,004 13,416
1986
24,239
301
1,161
2,859
3,761 3,325
3,229
3,850
1,335
2,346
1,604
326
140
4,672 13,815
324
1,253
2,873
3,333 3,739
3,322
3,964
1,239
2,323
1,656
388
171
4,720 14,088
1991
24,584
1996
24,890
293
1,229
3,056
2,961 3,849
3,336
4,432
1,177
2,286
1,628
430
214
4,876 14,281
2000
25,203
281
1,174
3,109
2,928 3,667
3,653
4,637
1,227
2,190
1,649
448
240
4,867 14,582
2001
25,284
273
1,154
3,102
2,979 3,591
3,726
4,702
1,219
2,185
1,661
444
248
4,834 14,694
2002 2
25,362
273
1,131
3,095
3,026 3,503
3,795
4,767
1,223
2,187
1,676
433
254
4,808 14,782
2003 2
25,448
280
1,112
3,073
3,095 3,433
3,838
4,808
1,248
2,197
1,696
410
260
4,784 14,854
9,273
9,370
9,462
2,798
2,891
3,050
3,161
3,256
3,298
3,339
3,379
3,419
3,461
3,494
5,605
5,752
5,777
5,734
5,755
5,757
5,772
5,809
2004 2
25,548
291
1,103
3,043
3,153 3,380
3,881
4,843
1,280
2,203
1,703
403
264
4,753 14,940
2005 2
25,708
296
1,117
3,001
3,218 3,378
3,905
4,885
1,319
2,206
1,686
428
269
4,733 15,066
2006
25,837
303
1,139
2,952
3,264 3,355
3,918
4,938
1,377
2,190
1,670
461
270
4,717 15,152
Wales Persons 1981
2,813
36
136
407
434
383
333
485
158
272
139
21
8
626
1,663
1986
2,811
37
143
357
438
369
378
464
166
271
154
26
10
578
1,686
1991
2,873
38
153
363
393
402
389
486
154
284
164
32
13
589
1,711
1996
2,891
34
146
381
352
409
379
541
147
279
170
37
17
598
1,714
2000
2,907
32
138
383
352
378
403
565
152
265
180
39
19
591
1,734
2001
2,910
32
136
382
356
365
409
572
154
264
183
39
20
587
1,739
2002 2
2,920
30
132
380
365
354
414
578
156
265
185
39
20
582
1,749
2003 2
2,931
31
129
377
376
345
417
582
161
268
187
38
21
577
1,759
5,854
5,908
5,968
2004 2
2,946
32
127
373
385
339
421
586
166
270
188
39
21
572
1,773
2005 2
2,954
32
126
367
390
335
421
589
171
271
186
42
21
566
1,780
2006
2,966
33
127
361
399
332
421
592
177
273
186
45
22
561
1,790
Males 1981
1,365
18
70
209
221
193
168
240
73
118
48
5
2
321
871
1986
1,362
19
73
184
221
186
190
231
79
119
54
7
2
297
885
1991
1,391
20
78
186
199
199
194
242
74
128
60
8
2
302
891
1996
1,401
17
74
195
179
203
187
269
72
128
64
10
3
306
890
2000
1,408
16
71
196
177
185
198
280
75
124
71
12
4
303
895
2001
1,409
16
69
196
179
178
200
283
75
124
73
12
4
301
895
2002 2
1,414
16
68
195
184
172
202
285
77
125
74
12
5
299
900
2003 2
1,423
16
66
194
190
168
204
287
79
127
75
11
5
296
908
602
608
615
525
547
573
578
581
584
589
595
173
181
198
206
210
212
215
218
2004 2
1,432
16
65
192
196
166
205
288
82
128
76
12
5
294
917
2005 2
1,439
17
65
189
200
166
205
290
84
129
77
13
5
291
924
2006
1,445
17
65
185
204
164
205
291
87
130
77
15
5
288
929
Females 1981
1,448
18
66
199
213
190
165
246
85
154
91
16
6
305
791
1986
1,449
18
70
173
217
184
188
233
87
152
100
20
8
282
801
1991
1,482
19
75
177
194
203
195
244
80
156
104
24
10
288
820
1996
1,490
16
71
186
173
206
192
272
75
151
106
27
13
293
825
2000
1,499
15
67
186
175
192
206
285
77
142
109
28
15
288
840
2001
1,502
15
66
186
177
187
209
289
78
141
110
27
15
286
844
2002 2
1,506
15
65
185
181
182
212
293
80
140
111
27
16
283
849
2003 2
1,508
15
63
183
185
176
214
295
82
141
112
27
16
280
851
352
366
375
373
2004 2
2005 2
2006
380
383
387
1,514
1,515
1,521
15
16
16
62
61
62
182
179
176
See notes on first page of table.
Office for National Statistics
42
189
191
195
172
170
168
216
216
216
298
299
301
84
87
90
142
142
143
112
110
108
26
28
30
16
16
16
278
275
273
856
856
861
221
224
227
371
372
374
377
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 1.4
continued
S u m m e r 2008
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
Under
16–
65M/60F1
over
16
64M/59F1 and over
Scotland Persons 1981
5,180
69
249
780
875
724
603
880
260
460
232
35
14
1,188
3,110
882
1986
5,112
66
257
656
863
739
665
849
273
435
252
42
15
1,061
3,161
890
1991
5,083
66
258
634
746
795
696
853
265
441
259
51
19
1,021
3,151
912
1996
5,092
59
252
643
651
798
722
925
259
448
256
57
24
1,019
3,151
922
2000
5,063
53
230
636
628
717
774
962
263
445
267
59
28
985
3,141
937
2001
5,064
52
224
629
633
696
782
979
262
447
272
59
29
970
3,150
944
2002
5,055
51
217
622
639
669
788
993
262
449
276
58
30
955
3,150
950
2003
5,057
52
212
614
648
648
793
1,008
265
452
281
55
31
943
3,156
958
2004
5,078
54
210
609
653
635
796
1,025
270
455
286
54
31
935
3,175
2005
5,095
54
211
600
659
629
794
1,042
273
457
286
59
32
929
3,191
2006
5,117
55
213
588
668
627
790
1,058
280
456
287
63
32
922
3,213
Males 1981
2,495
35
128
400
445
364
298
424
118
194
77
8
3
610
1,603
1986
2,462
34
131
336
438
371
331
410
127
184
86
10
3
543
1,636
1991
2,445
34
132
324
377
394
345
415
124
192
91
13
3
522
1,623
1996
2,447
30
128
328
327
392
355
454
122
198
93
15
5
521
1,616
2000
2,432
28
118
326
315
347
377
474
125
199
100
17
6
505
1,606
2001
2,434
26
115
322
319
337
379
483
125
200
103
17
6
497
1,610
2002
2,432
26
111
319
324
325
382
490
125
202
106
17
7
489
1,612
2003
2,435
26
108
314
329
315
383
496
126
204
108
16
7
483
1,616
2004
2,446
28
107
312
332
310
384
503
129
207
111
16
7
479
1,627
2005
2,456
28
107
307
335
309
382
511
131
208
112
18
7
476
1,635
2006
2,469
28
109
301
340
310
380
517
135
208
113
20
8
472
1,649
Females 1981
2,685
33
121
380
430
359
305
456
142
265
155
27
11
579
1,506
1986
2,649
32
126
320
424
368
334
439
146
250
166
32
12
518
1,525
32
126
309
369
402
351
437
141
249
168
38
16
499
1,528
1991
2,639
1996
2,645
28
123
315
324
406
367
470
137
250
164
42
20
498
1,535
2000
2,631
26
112
310
313
369
397
488
138
246
166
43
22
480
1,535
2001
2,630
26
109
307
314
359
403
496
137
246
169
43
23
473
1,540
2002
2,623
25
106
303
315
344
406
504
137
247
171
41
23
466
1,538
2003
2,623
25
104
300
318
332
410
512
139
248
173
39
24
460
1,540
2004
2,632
26
103
297
321
325
412
521
141
248
175
38
24
457
1,549
2005
2,639
26
103
293
324
320
411
531
142
249
174
41
25
453
1,556
2006
2,647
27
104
287
328
317
410
541
145
247
174
43
25
450
1,564
Northern Ireland Persons 1981
1,543
27
106
282
271
200
175
227
68
116
57
..
..
444
874
1986
1,574
28
107
261
277
217
190
227
71
115
64
16
..
423
917
1991
1,607
26
106
260
256
240
200
241
70
121
69
14
6
417
945
1996
1,662
24
99
266
244
257
220
266
70
123
72
15
7
415
993
2000
1,683
22
95
259
237
247
243
284
73
123
75
16
7
403
1,020
2001
1,689
22
93
255
240
243
248
290
74
123
77
16
7
397
1,030
2002
1,697
22
91
253
243
238
251
296
75
125
79
16
7
393
1,037
2003
1,703
21
89
251
246
233
254
301
78
126
81
16
8
388
1,044
968
975
983
282
283
299
310
322
327
331
336
341
345
349
600
606
612
612
616
617
619
622
627
630
634
224
234
246
253
259
262
266
271
2004
1,710
22
87
248
250
229
256
305
81
127
82
16
8
383
1,052
2005
1,724
23
88
245
253
228
257
310
84
128
83
17
8
381
1,064
2006
1,742
23
89
242
258
229
259
316
87
130
83
18
8
380
1,077
Males 1981
757
14
54
145
140
102
87
109
32
50
21
..
..
228
454
1986
768
14
55
134
142
109
95
110
33
50
23
4
..
217
474
1991
783
13
54
133
131
119
100
118
32
53
26
4
1
213
487
1996
810
12
51
136
124
128
109
131
33
54
27
4
1
212
511
2000
820
11
49
133
120
122
119
141
35
55
29
5
2
207
524
2001
824
11
48
131
122
120
122
144
35
56
30
5
2
204
529
2002
829
11
47
130
124
117
123
147
36
56
31
5
2
202
534
2003
833
11
46
129
126
115
124
149
38
57
31
5
2
199
538
275
280
284
2004
836
11
45
127
128
113
125
151
39
58
32
5
2
197
542
2005
844
12
45
126
130
113
126
153
41
59
32
5
2
196
550
2006
853
12
46
124
132
113
127
156
42
60
33
6
2
195
558
Females 1981
786
13
52
137
130
98
88
118
37
66
37
..
..
216
420
1986
805
13
52
127
135
107
96
118
38
65
41
12
..
206
442
1991
824
13
52
127
125
121
100
123
38
67
44
10
4
203
458
1996
851
11
49
130
120
129
110
135
37
69
45
11
6
203
482
2000
862
11
46
126
118
125
124
143
38
68
46
11
6
196
497
2001
865
10
45
124
119
123
126
146
38
68
47
11
6
193
501
2002
868
11
44
123
119
120
128
149
39
68
48
11
6
191
504
2003
870
10
43
122
120
118
129
152
40
68
49
11
6
189
506
97
99
101
150
157
163
167
2004
2005
2006
178
181
183
874
880
888
11
11
11
42
43
43
121
119
118
122
123
126
116
115
115
130
131
132
154
157
160
42
43
45
69
69
69
50
50
51
11
11
12
6
6
6
187
186
185
509
514
520
See notes on first page of table.
43
Office for National Statistics
75
77
83
87
90
92
94
95
169
170
173
175
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 1.5
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands)
Males
Total
population
Single
Married
Divorced
16 and over
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
36,818
37,486
38,724
39,837
40,501
4,173
4,369
5,013
5,625
5,891
12,522
12,511
12,238
11,867
11,636
187
376
611
917
1,187
1996
1999
2000
40,827
41,325
41,569
6,225
6,582
6,721
11,310
11,143
11,113
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
41,865
42,135
42,409
42,731
43,141
43,494
6,894
7,086
7,272
7,483
7,708
7,944
16–19
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,666
2,901
3,310
3,131
2,665
1996
1999
2000
Mid-year
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
682
686
698
695
727
17,563
17,941
18,559
19,103
19,441
3,583
3,597
4,114
4,617
4,817
12,566
12,538
12,284
12,000
11,833
296
533
828
1,165
1,459
2,810
2,877
2,939
2,953
2,951
19,255
19,545
20,165
20,734
21,060
1,346
1,433
1,456
733
732
731
19,614
19,890
20,022
5,168
5,526
5,650
11,433
11,235
11,199
1,730
1,875
1,927
2,881
2,800
2,772
21,212
21,435
21,547
11,090
11,008
10,929
10,851
10,801
10,723
1,482
1,534
1,589
1,642
1,696
1,739
733
730
727
724
722
720
20,198
20,358
20,517
20,700
20,927
21,126
5,798
5,957
6,126
6,311
6,529
6,740
11,150
11,075
11,000
10,935
10,882
10,812
1,975
2,036
2,096
2,156
2,215
2,266
2,745
2,710
2,669
2,629
2,589
2,549
21,667
21,777
21,892
22,031
22,214
22,367
1,327
1,454
1,675
1,587
1,358
34
28
20
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,362
1,482
1,694
1,596
1,366
1,163
1,289
1,523
1,484
1,267
142
129
93
49
32
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,305
1,419
1,616
1,535
1,300
2,402
2,543
2,523
1,209
1,280
1,276
6
6
6
0
1
1
0
1
1
1,216
1,288
1,283
1,164
1,234
1,221
21
20
18
0
1
1
0
1
1
1,186
1,255
1,240
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
2,567
2,630
2,703
2,771
2,801
2,829
1,304
1,352
1,392
1,424
1,434
1,457
5
4
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1,312
1,357
1,397
1,428
1,436
1,459
1,237
1,259
1,293
1,332
1,355
1,364
16
13
12
11
9
7
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1,255
1,273
1,306
1,343
1,365
1,370
20–24
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
3,773
3,395
3,744
4,171
3,911
1,211
1,167
1,420
1,768
1,717
689
557
466
317
242
3
4
10
14
12
0
0
1
0
0
1,904
1,728
1,896
2,099
1,971
745
725
1,007
1,383
1,421
1,113
925
811
657
490
9
16
27
32
29
2
2
2
1
1
1,869
1,667
1,847
2,072
1,941
1996
1999
2000
3,291
3,047
3,088
1,538
1,449
1,470
117
78
74
3
2
3
0
0
0
1,658
1,530
1,548
1,361
1,320
1,352
260
188
180
11
8
8
1
1
1
1,633
1,517
1,540
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
3,157
3,212
3,281
3,376
3,477
3,558
1,501
1,533
1,573
1,639
1,700
1,749
74
69
68
69
66
59
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1,579
1,606
1,645
1,712
1,771
1,812
1,390
1,430
1,465
1,497
1,547
1,599
178
167
161
157
150
138
8
8
8
8
8
7
1
1
1
2
2
1
1,578
1,606
1,636
1,664
1,706
1,746
25–29
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
3,267
3,758
3,372
3,713
4,154
431
533
588
835
1,132
1,206
1,326
1,057
949
856
16
39
54
79
82
1
2
1
1
1
1,654
1,900
1,700
1,863
2,071
215
267
331
527
800
1,367
1,522
1,247
1,207
1,158
29
65
89
113
123
4
5
4
4
2
1,614
1,859
1,671
1,850
2,083
1996
1999
2000
3,950
3,687
3,605
1,273
1,304
1,305
650
497
459
46
34
31
1
1
1
1,970
1,836
1,796
977
1,051
1,065
906
725
677
93
72
65
3
3
3
1,980
1,851
1,810
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
3,487
3,365
3,284
3,280
3,354
3,434
1,293
1,286
1,281
1,297
1,344
1,400
420
375
340
319
307
295
28
26
25
24
23
23
1
1
1
1
1
1
1,742
1,688
1,647
1,641
1,675
1,718
1,059
1,054
1,060
1,089
1,143
1,198
625
568
527
501
488
471
58
52
49
47
46
46
3
3
2
2
2
2
1,745
1,676
1,638
1,639
1,679
1,716
Aged
1 2002 to 2005 mid-year population estimates for England and Wales have been updated to include the latest revised estimates that take into account improved estimates of international
migration.
Office for National Statistics
44
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 1.5
continued
S u m m e r 2008
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
England and Wales
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
30–34
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,897
3,220
3,715
3,338
3,708
206
236
318
355
520
1,244
1,338
1,451
1,197
1,172
23
55
97
124
155
3
3
3
2
2
1,475
1,632
1,869
1,679
1,849
111
118
165
206
335
1,269
1,388
1,544
1,293
1,330
34
75
129
154
189
8
8
9
6
5
1,422
1,588
1,846
1,660
1,859
1996
1999
2000
4,126
4,113
4,076
776
877
904
1,135
1,043
1,007
138
121
114
2
3
2
2,050
2,044
2,027
551
651
679
1,316
1,223
1,182
201
188
181
7
7
7
2,076
2,069
2,049
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
4,050
3,992
3,919
3,810
3,724
3,606
934
959
979
988
1,002
1,010
971
918
864
810
761
703
108
105
102
97
92
84
2
2
2
2
2
2
2,016
1,984
1,947
1,897
1,856
1,799
711
742
766
777
791
800
1,142
1,093
1,041
982
933
876
174
167
159
149
139
127
7
6
6
5
5
5
2,033
2,009
1,972
1,913
1,868
1,808
35–44
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,856
7,022
317
286
316
396
477
2,513
2,442
2,519
2,738
2,632
48
104
178
293
384
13
12
12
12
11
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,438
3,504
201
167
170
213
280
2,529
2,427
2,540
2,815
2,760
66
129
222
350
444
48
42
41
39
34
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,418
3,517
1996
1999
2000
7,017
7,475
7,661
653
832
899
2,426
2,459
2,481
398
408
410
12
13
12
3,489
3,711
3,802
427
577
635
2,568
2,617
2,640
497
533
547
36
37
37
3,528
3,763
3,859
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
7,816
7,964
8,058
8,133
8,194
8,213
963
1,031
1,089
1,141
1,195
1,249
2,494
2,490
2,471
2,441
2,417
2,371
411
424
435
443
450
448
12
12
12
11
11
11
3,881
3,957
4,007
4,036
4,073
4,080
692
751
804
858
910
965
2,649
2,650
2,631
2,613
2,583
2,543
558
572
583
593
597
595
36
35
34
32
31
30
3,935
4,007
4,051
4,097
4,121
4,134
45–64
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
11,887
11,484
11,040
10,860
10,960
502
496
480
461
456
4,995
4,787
4,560
4,422
4,394
81
141
218
331
456
173
160
147
141
127
5,751
5,583
5,405
5,355
5,433
569
462
386
327
292
4,709
4,568
4,358
4,220
4,211
125
188
271
388
521
733
683
620
570
503
6,136
5,901
5,635
5,505
5,527
1996
1999
2000
11,820
12,198
12,328
528
589
615
4,587
4,627
4,638
628
706
727
121
121
121
5,864
6,043
6,101
318
355
372
4,466
4,541
4,564
732
844
881
440
415
410
5,956
6,155
6,227
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
12,447
12,573
12,710
12,852
13,021
13,243
644
670
702
736
774
818
4,647
4,642
4,643
4,643
4,652
4,676
747
779
814
850
888
926
121
120
119
117
117
117
6,159
6,211
6,278
6,347
6,431
6,537
391
413
437
465
497
535
4,578
4,597
4,612
4,625
4,642
4,677
918
960
1,002
1,045
1,090
1,138
401
391
381
371
362
356
6,289
6,362
6,432
6,505
6,590
6,706
65 and over
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
6,592
7,119
7,548
7,768
8,080
179
197
216
223
231
1,840
2,033
2,167
2,234
2,332
17
33
54
76
99
492
510
534
539
586
2,527
2,773
2,971
3,072
3,248
580
569
533
477
422
1,437
1,579
1,692
1,759
1,853
32
60
90
127
152
2,016
2,138
2,263
2,333
2,405
4,065
4,347
4,578
4,696
4,832
1996
1999
2000
8,221
8,262
8,287
247
251
252
2,390
2,431
2,449
134
161
171
597
594
593
3,367
3,437
3,466
369
338
327
1,897
1,922
1,938
196
230
243
2,393
2,336
2,313
4,854
4,825
4,821
2001
20021
20031
20041
20051
2006
8,342
8,398
8,454
8,510
8,571
8,611
254
255
257
258
260
261
2,478
2,508
2,538
2,566
2,596
2,618
183
196
210
224
239
254
595
594
593
592
590
589
3,510
3,554
3,597
3,640
3,685
3,722
318
309
301
293
286
279
1,960
1,987
2,017
2,046
2,077
2,101
259
276
295
314
335
353
2,295
2,272
2,245
2,216
2,187
2,155
4,832
4,844
4,857
4,870
4,885
4,889
See notes on first page of table.
45
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Components of population change
Table 1.6
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
United Kingdom2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
England2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
Other
changes
Population at
end of
period
– 55
– 33
..
..
..
+ 16
+ 18
..
..
..
56,216
56,537
56,684
57,439
58,164
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
59,113
59,323
59,557
59,846
60,238
60,587
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
+ 58
+ 27
+ 65
+148
+145
766
705
733
782
756
670
662
662
647
639
+ 96
+ 42
+ 70
+135
+117
–
–
–
+
+
55
33
5
13
29
–
–
–
–
–
58,164
59,113
59,323
59,557
59,846
60,238
+190
+210
+234
+289
+393
+349
706
663
682
707
717
734
623
601
605
603
591
575
+83
+62
+77
+104
+127
+159
+107
+148
+157
+185
+266
+190
..
..
..
..
..
..
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
+ 61
+ 35
+ 73
+150
+132
644
612
639
689
668
588
582
582
569
563
+ 76
+ 30
+ 57
+120
+106
–
–
+
+
+
28
9
16
30
27
+ 10
+ 11
..
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
..
– 29
– 17
..
..
..
+ 13
+ 14
..
..
..
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
51,410
+190
+212
+225
+260
+362
+310
626
591
608
631
641
657
548
530
532
531
520
506
+ 78
+ 61
+ 76
+101
+121
+151
+112
+151
+149
+159
+241
+159
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
52,360
52,572
52,797
53,057
53,419
53,729
+ 50
+ 32
+ 73
+137
+129
627
577
603
651
632
552
546
547
535
528
+ 75
+ 31
+ 56
+116
+104
–
–
+
+
+
35
11
18
21
24
+ 1
+ 6
..
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
..
– 27
– 15
..
..
..
+ 10
+ 12
..
..
..
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
48,519
593
560
578
600
608
623
514
497
498
498
487
474
+ 79
+ 63
+ 79
+102
+121
+149
+107
+139
+135
+143
+234
+148
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
49450
49652
49866
50111
50466
50763
12
3
1
12
4
37
35
36
38
36
36
36
35
34
35
+
–
+
+
+
+
+
–
+
+
7
2
1
8
2
+10
+ 5
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2
2
..
..
..
+ 3
+ 2
..
..
..
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
2,891
+ 4
+ 10
+ 11
+ 15
+ 7
+ 12
33
30
31
32
33
33
34
33
33
33
33
31
– 1
– 3
– 3
– 1
0
+ 2
+ 5
+ 12
+ 14
+ 17
+ 7
+ 10
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2,910
2,920
2,931
2,946
2,954
2,966
–
11
14
6
2
73
66
66
66
63
64
64
64
62
61
+
+
+
+
+
9
2
2
3
1
– 14
– 16
– 16
– 9
– 0
– 4
– 7
– 7
..
..
– 10
– 10
– 7
..
..
+ 4
+ 4
+ 1
..
..
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
– 6
– 9
+ 3
+ 21
+ 16
+ 22
56
51
52
54
54
55
59
57
58
58
57
55
– 3
– 6
– 7
– 4
– 2
0
– 3
– 3
+ 9
+ 25
+ 19
+ 22
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
5,064
5,055
5,057
5,078
5,095
5,117
–
–
–
–
+
7
3
1
1
..
– 1
+ 17
–
–
–
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1,662
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1,689
1,697
1,703
1,710
1,724
1,742
51,410
52,360
52,572
52,797
53,057
53,419
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
Wales2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
48,519
49,450
49,652
49,866
50,111
50,466
+186
+203
+214
+245
+355
+297
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
+
+
–
+
+
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
Scotland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
2,891
2,910
2,920
2,931
2,946
2,954
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
5,064
5,055
5,057
5,078
5,095
–
–
–
+
1
1
1
4
1
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
Northern Ireland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
–
+
+
+
+
3
3
6
7
11
28
27
28
27
25
17
17
16
16
15
+
+
+
+
+
11
10
12
12
9
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
1,662
1,689
1,697
1,703
1,710
1,724
+ 6
+ 7
+ 6
+ 8
+ 14
+ 17
23
21
21
22
22
23
15
14
15
15
14
14
+ + + + + + 8
7
7
7
8
8
14
8
5
5
2
– 3
0
– 1
0
+ 6
+ 9
–
–
–
–
7
4
3
3
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
{
1996–01
2001–02
2002–03
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
England and Wales2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–96
Total Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
annual
Net civilian migration
change
Live
Deaths
Natural
births
change
1
Total
To/from To/from
To/from
(Live births –
rest of UK
Irish Republic
rest of the
deaths)
world
{
Population at
start of period
–
–
{
Mid-year to
mid-year
Numbers (thousands)
–
–
–
–
{
1 For UK, England, Wales and Scotland from 1981 onwards, this column is not an estimate of net civilian migration; it also includes “other” changes. It has been derived by subtraction using revised population estimates and natural change.
2 Data for Mid 2002–Mid 2005 for United Kingdom, England and for Wales, have been updated to include the latest revised population estimates that take into account improved estimates of
international migration.
Office for National Statistics
46
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 2.1
S u m m e r 2008
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
United Kingdom
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 Number
Rate1
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
Numbers (thousands) and rates Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Civil
Partnerships
Number
Rate2
Number
12.0
13.0
13.3
13.8
12.6
61.1
91.3
154.3
236.1
260.4
90
125
204
298
355
406.0
397.8
393.9
349.7
317.5
..
49.4
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
700.0
679.0
669.1
668.8
695.6
11.9
11.5
11.3
11.3
11.7
271.6
268.1
268.0
271.7
288.5
388
395
401
406
415
301.1
305.9
286.1
293.0
308.6
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
716.0
722.5
748.6
..
12.0
12.0
12.4
..
302.6
310.2
326.8
..
423
429
437
..
313.6
286.8
275.1P
..
..
..
..
..
173.2
179.0
190.3
180.1
11.7
11.9
12.5
11.9
74.5
75.0
82.5
78.2
430
419
434
434
35.2
79.0
121.1
51.5
30.2P
76.4P
120.7P
47.8P
Rate3 Number Rate4
Divorces
Deaths
Infant
mortality6
Neonatal
mortality7
Rate2 Number
Perinatal
mortality8
Number
Rate5
Number
Rate1
Number
Rate2 Number Rate9
:
:
:
:
:
135.4
156.4
168.2
173.5
171.7
..
11.3
..
..
..
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
12.1
11.7
11.7
11.2
10.9
9.79
8.16
7.18
5.82
4.50
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
6.68
4.93
4.00
3.46
3.00
9.9
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
12.25
8.79
7.31
6.45
6.41
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
8.7
:
:
:
:
:
158.7
154.6
156.8
160.5
166.7
..
..
..
..
..
632.1
608.4
602.3
606.2
612.0
10.8
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
4.05
3.81
3.66
3.54
3.69
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.3
5.3
2.73
2.63
2.44
2.37
2.54
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
5.79
5.56
5.39
5.53
5.92
8.2
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.5
:
1.95 10
16.11
8.73P
:
..
..
..
167.1
155.1
148.1
..
..
..
..
..
583.1
582.7
572.2
..
9.7
9.7
9.4
..
3.66
3.68
3.74
..
5.1
5.1
5.0
..
2.49
2.52
2.61
..
3.5
3.5
3.5
..
5.88
5.78
5.94
..
8.2
8.0
7.9
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
1.95 10
:
:
:
..
39.4
40.0
38.9
36.7
..
..
..
..
165.1
141.1
130.9
145.5
11.1
9.5
8.7
9.7
0.91
0.94
0.92
0.90
5.3
5.3
4.8
5.0
0.63
0.63
0.66
0.59
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.3
1.39
1.53
1.49
1.38
8.0
8.5
7.8
7.6
..
..
..
..
4.87
4.36
4.49
2.38
..
..
..
..
37.7
36.7
37.0
36.7
..
..
..
..
159.9
141.4
130.7
140.2
10.7
9.4
8.6
9.2
0.90
0.94
0.93
0.97
5.1
5.0
4.8
5.2
0.61
0.65
0.67
0.68
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.6
1.45
1.50
1.54
1.45
8.1
8.0
7.8
7.7
1.69P
2.37P
2.96P
1.71P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
159.2P
138.0P
129.8P
..
10.6P
9.1P
8.4P
..
0.91P
0.99P
0.87P
..
4.9P
5.2P
4.3P
..
0.63P
0.66P
0.59P
..
3.4P
3.5P
2.9P
..
1.39P
1.52P
1.37P
..
7.5P
8.0P
6.7P
..
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
8.6
2005 March
June Sept Dec 2006 March
June Sept Dec 2007 March
June
Sept
Dec
178.9
186.0
195.2
188.5
12.0
12.3
12.8
12.3
77.5
80.2
85.8
83.3
433
431
439
442
183.6P
189.5P
202.5P
..
12.2P
12.5P
13.3P
..
81.6P
82.5P
90.3P
..
444P
435P
446P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
England and Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
584.3
634.5
661.0
699.2
649.5
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.8
12.6
53.8
81.0
141.3
211.3
232.7
92
128
214
302
358
358.6
352.0
347.9
306.8
279.0
57.7
49.6
43.6
36.0
30.9
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
157.1
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.5
13.8
598.5
577.9
581.2
570.0
560.1
12.1
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.9
8.34
7.02
6.31
5.16
3.99
14.3
11.1
9.6
7.4
6.1
5.66
4.23
3.49
3.05
2.68
9.7
10.45
6.7
7.56
5.3
6.37
4.4
5.65
4.1
5.62
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
621.9
604.4
594.6
596.1
621.5
12.0
11.6
11.4
11.3
11.8
241.9
238.6
238.1
242.0
257.2
389
395
400
406
414
263.5
268.0
249.2
255.6
270.1
27.8
27.8
25.4
25.6
26.4
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
144.6
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
12.9
12.7
12.9
13.4
14.0
556.1
535.7
530.4
533.5
538.3
10.7
10.3
10.1
10.1
10.2
3.62
3.38
3.24
3.13
3.31
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
2.44
2.34
2.14
2.13
2.26
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.6
5.14
4.96
4.76
4.99
5.36
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.6
2004
2005
2006
2007
639.7
645.8
669.6
..
12.1
12.1
12.5
..
269.7
276.5
291.4
..
422
428
435
..
273.1
247.8
237.0P
..
26.1
23.1
21.6P
..
:
1.8610
14.94
7.93
:
5.710
1.4
0.7P
153.4
141.8
132.6
..
14.1
13.1
12.2
..
512.5
512.7
502.6
..
9.7
9.7
9.4
..
3.22
3.26
3.37
..
5.0
5.0
5.0
..
2.21
2.23
2.35
..
8.4
8.0
8.0
..
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
154.3
159.8
170.2
161.7
11.7
12.0
12.6
12.0
30.4
68.2
105.3
44.0
11.5
25.5
38.9
16.3
:
:
:
1.8610
:
:
:
5.710
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
13.6
13.5
13.0
12.2
145.7
123.8
114.7
128.5
11.0
9.4
8.6
9.6
0.85
0.82
0.79
0.80
5.5
5.2
4.6
4.9
0.57
0.56
0.57
0.52
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.9
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
159.5
166.2
174.9
169.0
12.0
12.4
12.9
12.5
25.8P
65.8P
105.0P
40.4P
9.5P
24.0P
38.0P
14.6P
4.58
4.01
4.18
2.18
1.7
1.5
1.5
0.8
34.3
33.0
32.9
32.4
12.8
12.2
12.0
11.8
141.0
123.9
114.6
123.1
10.6
9.2
8.5
9.1
0.82
0.84
0.85
0.86
5.2
5.1
4.8
5.1
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.60
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
1.32
1.37
1.38
1.30
8.2
8.2
7.9
7.6
2007 March
June
Sept
Dec
163.3P
169.2P
181.1P
..
12.2P
12.5P
13.3P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.55
2.16
2.68
1.54
0.6P
0.8P
1.0P
0.6P
34.7P
33.1P
32.9P
..
13.1P 139.2P
12.3P 121.0P
12.2P 114.0P
..
..
10.4P
9.0P
8.4P
..
0.80P
0.88P
0.84P
..
4.9P
5.2P
4.6P
..
0.55P
0.60P
0.56P
..
3.4P
3.5P
3.1P
..
1.23P
1.36P
1.32P
..
7.5P
8.0P
7.3P
..
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
66.3
430
66.6
417
73.7
433
69.9
433
68.7
431
71.4
430
76.8
439
74.5
441
72.1P
442P
73.4P
434P
80.7P
445P
..
..
3.5
5.39
3.4
5.21
3.5
5.36
..
..
3.7
1.25
3.5
1.35
3.4
1.34
3.2
1.28
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.8
12.7
50.8
76.9
133.5
198.9
218.2
92
129
214
301
355
339.0
332.2
328.4
290.1
264.2
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
..
..
146.0
150.1
148.7
..
..
..
..
..
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
12.0
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.8
7.83
6.50
5.92
4.86
3.74
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
5.32
3.93
3.27
2.87
2.53
9.7
6.6
5.2
4.3
4.1
9.81
7.04
5.98
5.33
5.36
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
8.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
589.5
572.8
563.7
565.7
589.9
12.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
11.8
226.7
223.8
223.3
227.0
241.4
385
391
396
401
409
249.5
253.8
236.2
242.1
255.6
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
137.0
133.9
136.4
140.2
145.8
..
..
..
..
..
519.6
501.0
496.1
499.1
503.4
10.8
10.2
10.0
10.1
10.1
3.38
3.18
3.04
2.97
3.14
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
2.29
2.21
2.02
2.02
2.15
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.7
4.86
4.69
4.51
4.75
5.09
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.6
2004
2005
2006
2007
607.2
613.0
635.7
..
12.1
12.1
12.5
..
253.1
259.4
273.5
..
417
423
430
..
258.2
233.8
223.5P
..
..
..
..
..
:
1.7910
14.38
7.64
:
..
..
..
145.5
134.6
125.6
..
..
..
..
..
479.2
479.4
470.3
..
9.6
9.6
9.3
..
3.03
3.10
3.19
..
5.0
5.0
5.0
..
2.09
2.12
2.24
..
3.4
3.5
3.5
..
5.10
4.92
5.11
..
8.4
8.0
8.0
..
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
146.4
151.8
161.4
153.4
11.8
12.1
12.7
12.1
62.1
62.5
69.1
65.6
424
412
428
428
28.8
64.3
99.3
41.4
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
1.7910
:
:
:
..
34.4
34.7
33.8
31.7
..
..
..
..
136.2
115.7
107.3
120.3
10.9
9.3
8.5
9.6
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.75
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.9
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.50
1.18
1.28
1.27
1.18
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.7
2006 March
June Sept Dec 2007 March
June Sept Dec 151.4
157.8
166.0
160.5
12.1
12.5
13.0
12.5
24.4P
62.0P
99.0P
38.2P
..
..
..
..
4.42
3.86
4.02
2.09
..
..
..
..
32.5
31.2
31.2
30.7
..
..
..
..
132.0
115.9
107.1
115.3
10.5
9.2
8.4
9.0
0.79
0.80
0.80
0.81
5.2
5.1
4.8
5.0
0.54
0.56
0.57
0.57
1.26
1.31
1.31
1.24
8.3
8.2
7.8
7.7
155.1P
160.7P
172.0P
..
12.3P
12.6P
13.4P
..
64.5
426
67.0
425
434
72.0
70.0
436
67.8P
437P
68.9P
429P
75.7P
440P
..
..
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.6
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.49
2.06
2.60
1.48
..
..
..
..
32.8P
31.4P
31.3P
..
..
..
..
..
130.2P
112.8P
106.4P
..
10.3P
8.9P
8.3P
..
0.74P
0.83P
0.79P
..
4.8P
5.2P
4.6P
..
0.52P
0.57P
0.54P
..
3.3P
3.5P
3.1P
..
1.16P
1.30P
1.27P
..
7.4P
8.0P
7.4P
..
Note: Death figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005. Death figures for
2006 and provisional death figures for 2007 relate to registrations.
Birth and death figures for England and also for Wales each exclude events for persons usually
resident outside England and Wales. These events are, however, included in the totals for
England and Wales combined, and for the United Kingdom.
From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from the
figures for Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
Infant, neonatal and perinatal mortality rates for Northern Ireland have now been
amended to take account of the non-resident livebirths.
Quarterly birth and death rates are calculated using seasonal adjustments which
take into account the number of days in the month/year. Rates for 2007 are based
on 2006-based population projections for 2007.
Marriage, civil partnership and divorce rates for 2007 are based on 2006 marital
status estimates.
47
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 2.1
continued
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
Numbers (thousands) and rates Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Civil
Partnerships
Number
Rate1
Number
Rate2
Number
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
11.9
12.7
13.2
13.3
12.1
2.9
4.0
7.8
12.3
14.4
86
112
211
323
412
19.5
19.8
19.5
16.6
14.8
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
..
..
7.8
8.4
8.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
32.1
31.3
30.6
30.2
31.4
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.7
14.8
14.8
14.8
15.0
15.8
461
472
483
497
503
14.0
14.1
13.0
13.5
14.5
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
2004
2005
2006
2007
32.3
32.6
33.6
..
11.0
11.0
11.3
..
16.6
17.1
17.8
..
513
524
530
..
14.9
14.0
13.5P
..
..
..
..
..
:
0.0710
0.56
0.29
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.8
7.9
8.7
8.2
10.8
10.7
11.6
11.0
4.1
4.0
4.6
4.3
529
510
530
527
1.6
3.9
6.0
2.5
..
..
..
..
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
8.1
8.3
8.8
8.4
11.1
11.2
11.8
11.2
4.2
4.3
4.8
4.5
520
523
543
535
1.4P
3.7P
6.0P
2.2P
2007 March
June
Sept
Dec
8.1P
8.5P
9.1P
..
11.0P
11.4P
12.1P
..
4.3P
4.5P
4.9P
..
535P
530P
540P
..
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
12.5
13.4
12.9
13.2
11.6
6.0
8.5
13.6
19.5
21.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
55.1
53.1
52.5
51.3
52.4
10.9
10.5
10.4
10.1
10.4
2004
2005
2006
2007
54.0
54.4
55.7
57.8P
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
Neonatal
mortality7
..
..
..
..
..
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
13.0
12.4
12.3
11.9
12.0
0.46
0.45
0.35
0.25
0.20
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
0.32
0.29
0.21
0.16
0.13
9.6
8.1
5.6
4.1
3.6
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
0.26
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
7.5
7.5
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.7
..
..
..
..
..
35.0
33.3
33.0
33.2
33.7
12.1
11.5
11.3
11.4
11.5
0.20
0.17
0.16
0.14
0.13
6.1
5.3
5.4
4.5
4.3
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.1
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.24
7.7
7.2
7.5
7.7
7.6
:
..
..
..
7.9
7.2
6.9
..
..
..
..
..
32.1
32.1
31.1
..
10.9
10.9
10.5
..
0.16
0.13
0.14
..
4.9
4.1
4.1
..
0.10
0.09
0.09
..
8.0
7.4
6.9
..
:
:
:
0.0710
:
:
:
..
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
..
..
..
..
9.3
7.8
7.1
7.9
12.6
10.6
9.6
10.7
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
4.2
4.2
3.3
4.6
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.02
..
..
..
..
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.09
..
..
..
..
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
..
..
..
..
8.7
7.6
7.2
7.5
11.9
10.3
9.7
10.1
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
3.1
4.1
4.0
5.1
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
0.06
0.10
0.08
0.06
..
..
..
..
1.8P
1.8P
1.7P
..
..
..
..
..
8.8P
7.9P
7.3P
..
11.9P
10.6P
9.7P
..
0.05P
0.04P
0.04P
..
6.3P
4.5P
4.3P
..
0.03P
0.02P
0.03P
..
3.1
0.26
2.9
0.24
2.8
0.23
..
..
3.1
0.06
3.2
0.06
2.8
0.06
2.6
0.06
2.0
0.06
2.4
0.05
3.1
0.07
3.6
0.06
3.7P
0.07P
2.8P
0.06P
2.8P
0.05P
..
..
93
122
206
291
360
37.5
36.2
35.8
33.8
30.2
53.8
47.5
42.9
39.0
33.2
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8.1
9.9
12.8
12.4
12.3
6.5
8.0
10.7
10.6
10.9
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
12.5
12.3
12.4
12.0
11.9
0.96
0.78
0.58
0.47
0.37
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
0.67
0.47
0.34
0.29
0.23
10.3
6.9
5.2
4.6
3.9
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.55
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
9.2
22.7
22.6
22.8
22.5
23.9
412
426
433
440
455
29.9
30.4
29.6
29.8
30.8
31.5
31.6
31.0
30.8
31.3
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
11.9
11.1
10.6
10.8
10.1
10.9
10.3
9.7
10.0
10.2
60.3
57.8
57.4
58.1
58.5
11.9
11.4
11.3
11.5
11.6
0.28
0.31
0.29
0.27
0.27
5.0
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1
0.18
0.21
0.20
0.16
0.18
3.3
4.0
3.8
3.2
3.4
0.42
0.45
0.45
0.39
0.42
7.6
8.4
8.5
7.6
8.0
10.6
10.7
10.9
11.2P
25.2
25.6
26.6
28.4P
467
471
477
491P
32.2
30.9
29.9
29.9P
32.2
30.3
28.7
28.7P
:
0.0810
1.05
0.69
:
2.510
1.0
0.7P
11.2
10.9
13.0
12.7P
10.5
10.3
12.3
12.0P
56.2
55.7
55.1
56.0P
11.1
11.0
10.8
10.9P
0.27
0.28
0.25
0.27P
4.9
5.2
4.5
4.7P
0.17
0.19
0.17
0.19P
3.1
3.5
3.1
3.2P
0.44
0.42
0.42
0.45P
8.1
7.7
7.4
7.8P
13.4
13.6
14.2
13.2
10.6
10.7
11.1
10.3
6.2
6.4
6.7
6.3
464
472
471
477
3.8
8.6
12.3
6.1
15.3
34.0
48.0
23.7
:
:
:
0.0810
:
:
:
2.510
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.8
10.0
10.7
10.1
10.3
15.6
13.7
12.8
13.6
12.4
10.8
10.0
10.7
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.07
5.0
5.1
5.6
5.2
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.09
0.13
0.11
0.10
7.0
9.2
7.6
7.1
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.6
14.0
14.2
13.9
10.8
11.0
11.0
10.8
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.6
487
475
471
477
3.5
8.3
12.2
5.9
13.6
32.1
46.4
22.4
0.26
0.32
0.28
0.19
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.7
2.6
3.1
3.6
3.7
10.1
11.7
13.4
14.1
14.9P
13.9P
12.7P
13.6P
11.8
10.9
9.8
10.6
0.05
0.07
0.05
0.07
3.7
5.0
3.8
5.3
0.03
0.05
0.04
0.04
3.3
3.4
3.9
3.4
2.4
3.3
2.9
3.7
0.09
0.09
0.11
0.12
6.7
6.4
7.8
8.7
2007 March
June
Sept
Dec
14.2P
14.3P
14.9P
14.4P
11.2P
11.1P
11.7P
11.1P
7.1P
6.9P
7.2P
7.1P
501P
482P
485P
497P
3.3P
8.1P
12.6P
5.8P
13.0P
31.4P
48.1P
22.0P
0.11
0.18
0.25
0.15
0.4P
0.7P
0.9P
0.6P
33.1P
33.3P
29.7P
30.9P
12.7P
12.6P
11.2P
11.6P
15.8P
13.4P
12.6P
14.2P
12.5P
10.5P
9.7P
10.9P
0.07P
0.08P
0.07P
0.06P
4.9P
5.3P
4.6P
3.9P
0.05P
0.05P
0.05P
0.04P
3.6P
3.4P
3.0P
2.9P
0.12P
0.12P
0.11P
0.11P
8.1P
8.6P
7.1P
7.5P
Northern Ireland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.3
17.6
17.8
16.2
14.7
1.3
1.9
3.6
5.3
6.3
50
70
128
203
260
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.2
8.3
..
45.4
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
0.6
1.4
1.5
2.3
2.3
..
4.2
..
..
..
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
11.2
10.6
10.3
9.4
9.2
0.48
0.36
0.36
0.19
0.14
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
5.8
0.35
0.23
0.23
0.12
0.09
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
23.0
21.5
22.0
21.4
21.6
13.7
12.8
13.0
12.6
12.7
7.0
6.8
7.1
7.2
7.4
303
318
325
335
344
7.6
7.6
7.3
7.6
7.8
..
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.3
..
..
..
..
..
15.7
14.9
14.5
14.6
14.5
9.3
8.9
8.6
8.6
8.5
0.15
0.11
0.13
0.10
0.12
6.4
5.0
6.0
4.6
5.2
0.11
0.08
0.10
0.07
0.09
2004
2005
2006
2007
22.3
22.3
23.3
24.5P
13.0
12.9
13.4
13.9P
7.7
8.1
8.8
9.3P
345
363
380
379P
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.7P
..
..
..
..
:
0.0110
0.12
0.11P
:
..
..
..
2.5
2.4
2.6
..
..
..
..
..
14.4
14.2
14.5
14.6P
8.4
8.3
8.4
8.3P
0.12
0.14
0.12
0.12P
5.5
6.1
5.1
4.9P
0.08
0.11
0.09
0.08P
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
5.5
5.7
5.9
5.2
13.0
13.3
13.7
11.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
363
359
358
373
0.9
2.2
3.5
1.4
..
..
..
..
:
:
:
0.0110
:
:
:
..
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.5
..
..
..
..
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.4
8.9
8.6
7.8
7.9
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.03
5.1
7.0
6.5
5.9
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.02
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
5.8
5.8
6.1
5.6
13.6
13.3
13.9
12.8
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
370
381
358
393
0.9
2.3
3.5
1.5
..
..
..
..
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.02
..
..
..
..
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
..
..
..
..
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.5
9.4
8.4
7.8
7.9
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
5.2
4.6
4.8
5.8
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
2007 March
June
Sept
Dec
6.1P
6.0P
6.5P
5.9P
14.2P
13.7P
14.7P
13.2P
2.4P
2.2P
2.5P
2.2P
383P
317P
386P
380P
1.0P
2.4P
3.8P
1.6P
..
..
..
..
0.02P
0.03P
0.04P
0.02P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
4.2P
3.6P
3.3P
3.6P
9.6P
8.2P
7.3P
8.1P
0.04P
0.03P
0.03P
0.02P
6.7P
5.1P
4.6P
3.3P
0.03P
0.02P
0.02P
0.01P
Office for National Statistics
48
Rate2 Number
Perinatal
mortality8
Number
7
8
9
10
p
Rate5
Infant
mortality6
Rate1
Per 1,000 population of all ages.
Per 1,000 live births.
Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population aged 16 and over.
Persons forming a civil partnership per 1,000 unmarried population aged 16 and over.
Persons divorcing per 1,000 married population.
Deaths under 1 year.
Number
Deaths
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
Rate3 Number Rate4
Divorces
Rate2 Number Rate9
13.3
0.59
8.3
0.42
8.3
0.42
4.6
0.22
3.7
0.23
4.8
0.23
3.8
0.16
4.5
0.19
3.5
0.19
4.0
0.18
3.7
4.9
3.8
3.2P
4.0
5.5
5.3
4.5
3.2
3.6
3.5
4.9
4.6P
2.9P
3.2P
2.2P
7.7
7.9
7.0
6.8
7.0
6.3
7.7
6.6
8.4P
6.8P
4.9P
..
22.3
15.3
15.3
8.4
9.4
10.0
7.2
8.4
8.7
8.0
0.19
0.19
0.17
0.17P
8.0
8.1
6.9
6.9P
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
8.4
8.6
7.4
7.9
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.04
6.7
7.3
7.4
6.3
0.05P
0.04P
0.05P
0.04P
7.6P
6.7P
7.0P
6.5P
Deaths under 4 weeks.
Stillbirths and deaths under 1 week.
Per 1,000 live births and stillbirths.
The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on 5 December 2005 in the UK - see Notes to
tables.
provisional
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 2.2
S u m m e r 2008
Key demographic and health indicators
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean age
Dependency ratio
Live births Population
Live Deaths
Children1
Elderly2
TFR3
births
Standardised Unstand-
mean age
ardised
of mother mean age of
at birth
mother at (years)4
birth (years) 5
Period expectation of life (in years) at birth7
Outside
marriage as
percentage
of total
live births
Age-
standardised
mortality
rate6
Males Females
Infant
mortality
rate8
United Kingdom
1976
56,216.1
1981
56,357.5
1986
56,683.8
1991
57,438.7
1996
58,164.4
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
42.1
37.1
33.5
33.2
33.9
29.5
29.7
29.7
30.0
30.0
1.74
1.82
1.78
1.82
1.73
26.7
27.0
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.6
9.0
12.5
20.4
29.8
35.5
10,486
9,506
8,914
8,168
7,584
..
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.2
..
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
59,113.5
59,323.5
59,557.3
59,845.8
60,238.4
669.1
668.8
695.6
716.0
722.5
602.3
606.2
612.0
583.1
582.7
32.6
32.2
31.8
31.4
31.0
29.8
29.8
29.9
30.0
30.0
1.63
1.64
1.71
1.77
1.78
28.6
28.7
28.8
28.9
29.1
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.5
40.1
40.6
41.5
42.3
42.9
6,807
6,765
6,758
6,394
6,268
75.6
75.9
76.2
76.5
76.9
80.4
80.5
80.7
80.9
81.3
5.5
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
2006
60,587.3
748.6 572.2
30.6
30.1
1.84 29.1
29.5
43.7
6,067p
..
..
5.0
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
46,659.9
46,820.8
47,187.6
47,875.0
48,519.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
41.4
36.4
33.1
32.9
33.7
29.7
29.9
29.8
30.0
30.0
1.70
1.79
1.76
1.81
1.73
26.5
27.0
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.7
9.2
12.9
21.4
30.1
35.5
10,271
9,298
8,725
8,017
7,414
..
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
..
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
49,449.7
49,652.3
49,866.2
50,110.7
50,465.6
563.7
565.7
589.9
607.2
613.0
496.1
499.1
503.4
479.2
479.4
32.5
32.1
31.8
31.4
30.9
29.7
29.7
29.8
29.8
29.9
1.63
1.65
1.73
1.78
1.79
28.6
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.1
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.5
29.5
39.6
40.1
40.9
41.7
42.3
6,650
6,603
6,602
6,232
6,110
75.9
76.1
76.5
76.8
77.2
80.6
80.7
80.9
81.1
81.5
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.0
..
5.0
2006
50,762.9
635.7 470.3
30.6
29.9
1.86
29.2
29.5 43.0
5,916
..
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,799.3
2,813.5
2,810.9
2,873.0
2,891.3
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
42.0
37.6
34.3
34.4
34.9
30.9
31.6
32.5
33.5
33.7
1.78
1.87
1.86
1.88
1.81
26.2
26.7
26.9
27.1
27.5
26.0
26.6
26.5
27.0
27.8
8.6
11.2
21.1
32.3
41.2
10,858
9,846
9,043
8,149
7,758
..
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.8
..
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2,910.2
2,919.8
2,931.1
2,946.4
2,953.6
30.6
30.2
31.4
32.3
32.6
33.0
33.2
33.7
32.1
32.1
33.7
33.3
32.8
32.3
31.8
33.6
33.7
33.8
33.9
34.1
1.66
1.64
1.73
1.78
1.81
27.8
28.0
28.1
28.2
28.4
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.5
28.5
48.3
49.7
50.3
51.3
52.4
7,017
6,953
6,984
6,588
6,442
75.3
75.5
75.8
76.1
76.6
80.0
80.1
80.3
80.6
80.9
5.4
4.5
4.3
4.9
4.1
2006
2,965.9
33.6 31.1
31.4
34.3
1.86
28.5
28.6 53.0
6,190
..
..
4.1
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,233.4
5,180.2
5,111.8
5,083.3
5,092.2
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
44.7
38.2
33.6
32.4
32.3
28.4
28.4
28.1
28.9
29.2
1.79
1.84
1.67
1.69
1.56
26.4
26.8
27.1
27.5
28.0
26.0
26.3
26.6
27.4
28.5
9.3
12.2
20.6
29.1
36.0
11,675
10,849
10,120
9,216
8,791
..
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
..
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
5,064.2
5,054.8
5,057.4
5,078.4
5,094.8
52.5
51.3
52.4
54.0
54.4
57.4
58.1
58.5
56.2
55.7
30.8
30.3
29.9
29.5
29.1
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.5
30.6
1.49
1.48
1.54
1.60
1.62
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.2
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.5
43.3
44.0
45.5
46.7
47.1
7,930
7,955
7,921
7,536
7,349
73.3
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.6
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.3
79.6
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.9
5.2
2006
2007
5,116.9
..
55.7
57.8P
55.1
56.0P
28.7
..
30.6
..
1.67
..
29.1
..
29.5
..
47.7 49.1P
7,161
..
..
..
..
..
4.5
..
Northern Ireland
1976
1,523.5
1981
1,543.0
1986
1,573.5
1991
1,607.3
1996
1,661.8
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
56.1
50.6
46.1
44.1
41.8
25.3
25.3
25.5
26.1
25.5
2.68
2.59
2.45
2.16
1.95
27.8
28.1
28.1
28.3
28.7
27.4
27.5
27.5
28.0
28.8
5.0
7.0
12.8
20.3
26.0
11,746
10,567
10,071
8,303
7,742
..
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
..
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
5.8
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1,689.3
1,696.6
1,702.6
1,710.3
1,724.4
22.0
21.4
21.6
22.3
22.3
14.5
14.6
14.5
14.4
14.2
38.6
37.9
37.2
36.4
35.8
25.5
25.7
25.9
26.2
26.3
1.80
1.77
1.81
1.87
1.87
29.1
29.2
29.2
29.4
29.5
29.4
29.5
29.5
29.7
29.7
32.5
33.5
34.4
34.5
36.3
6,976
6,930
6,743
6,609
6,418
75.2
75.6
75.8
76.0
76.1
80.1
80.4
80.6
80.8
81.0
6.1
4.7
5.3
5.5
6.3
2006
2007
1,741.6
..
23.3
24.5P
14.5
14.6P
35.3
..
26.4
..
1.94
..
29.6
..
29.7
..
38.0 37.9P
6,397
..
..
..
..
..
5.2
..
Note: Death figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005.
Death figures for 2006 relate to registrations.
Birth and death figures for England and also for Wales each exclude events for persons
usually resident outside England and Wales. These events are, however, included in the
total for the United Kingdom. From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern
Ireland are excluded from the figures for Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
Period expectation of life data for the United Kingdom, England and for Wales for 2001 to
2005 is based on death registrations and revised population estimates for 2002 to 2005.
1 Percentage of children under 16 to working-age population (males 16–64 and females 16–59).
2 Percentage of males 65 and over and females 60 and over to working-age population
(males 16–64 and females 16–59).
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current
patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the
TPFR (total period fertility rate).
4 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population.
5 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
6 Per million population. The age-standardised mortality rate makes allowances for changes
in the age structure of the population. See Notes to tables.
7 All countries: figures for all years based on registered deaths.
8 Deaths at age under one year per 1,000 live births.
p provisional
49
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 3.1
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Live births: age of mother
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, mean age and TFRs
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
1961
All
Under
20–24
25–29
30–34
ages
20
Total live births (numbers)
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age1
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
Age of mother at birth
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age2
(years)
TFR3
Age-specific fertility rates4
811.3
59.8
249.8
248.5
152.3
77.5
23.3
27.6
89.2
37.3
172.6
176.9
103.1
48.1
15.0
27.4
2.77
1964(max) 876.0
76.7
276.1
270.7
153.5
75.4
23.6
27.2
92.9
42.5
181.6
187.3
107.7
49.8
13.7
27.3
2.93
1966
849.8
86.7
285.8
253.7
136.4
67.0
20.1
26.8
90.5
47.7
176.0
174.0
97.3
45.3
12.5
27.1
2.75
1971
783.2
82.6
285.7
247.2
109.6
45.2
12.7
26.2
83.5
50.6
152.9
153.2
77.1
32.8
8.7
26.6
2.37
1976
584.3
57.9
182.2
220.7
90.8
26.1
6.5
26.4
60.4
32.2
109.3
118.7
57.2
18.6
4.8
26.5
1.71
1977(min) 569.3
54.5
174.5
207.9
100.8
25.5
6.0
26.5
58.1
29.4
103.7
117.5
58.6
18.2
4.4
26.6
1.66
1981
634.5
56.6
194.5
215.8
126.6
34.2
6.9
26.8
61.3
28.1
105.3
129.1
68.6
21.7
4.9
27.0
1.79
1986
661.0
57.4
192.1
229.0
129.5
45.5
7.6
27.0
60.6
30.1
92.7
123.8
78.0
24.6
4.8
27.4
1.77
1991
699.2
52.4
173.4
248.7
161.3
53.6
9.8
27.7
63.6
33.0
89.3 119.4
86.7
32.1
5.3
27.7
1.82
1992
689.7
47.9
163.3
244.8
166.8
56.7
10.2
27.9
63.6
31.7
86.1 117.6
87.4
33.4
5.8
27.8
1.80
1993
673.5
45.1
152.0
236.0
171.1
58.8
10.5
28.1
62.7
30.9
82.5 114.4
87.4
34.1
6.2
27.9
1.76
1994
664.7
42.0
140.2
229.1
179.6
63.1
10.7
28.4
62.0
28.9
79.0 112.2
89.4
35.8
6.4
28.1
1.75
1995
648.1
41.9
130.7
217.4
181.2
65.5
11.3
28.5
60.5
28.5
76.4 108.4
88.3
36.3
6.8
28.2
1.72
1996
649.5
44.7
125.7
211.1
186.4
69.5
12.1
28.6
60.6
29.7
77.0 106.6
89.8
37.5
7.2
28.2
1.74
1997
643.1
46.4
118.6
202.8
187.5
74.9
12.9
28.8
60.0
30.2
76.0 104.3
89.8
39.4
7.6
28.3
1.73
1998
635.9
48.3
113.5
193.1
188.5
78.9
13.6
28.9
59.2
30.9
74.9 101.5
90.6
40.4
7.9
28.3
1.72
1999
621.9
48.4
110.7
181.9
185.3
81.3
14.3
29.0
57.8
30.9
73.0
98.3
89.6
40.6
8.1
28.4
1.70
2000
604.4
45.8
107.7
170.7
180.1
85.0
15.1
29.1
55.9
29.3
70.0
94.3
87.9
41.4
8.3
28.5
1.65
2001
594.6
44.2
108.8
159.9
178.9
86.5
16.3
29.2
54.7
28.0
69.0
91.7
88.0
41.5
8.8
28.6
1.63
2002
596.1
43.5
110.9
153.4
180.5
90.5
17.3
29.3
54.7
27.1
69.1
91.5
89.9
43.0
9.1
28.7
1.65
2003
621.5
44.2
116.6
156.9
187.2
97.4
19.1
29.4
56.8
26.9
71.3
95.8
94.9
46.4
9.8
28.8
1.73
2004
639.7
45.1
121.1
160.0
190.6
102.2
20.8
29.4
58.2
26.9
72.8
97.6
99.6
48.8
10.4
28.9
1.78
2005
645.8
44.8
122.1
164.3
188.2
104.1
22.2
29.5
58.3
26.3
71.6
97.9
100.7
50.3
10.8
29.1
1.79
2006
669.6
45.5
127.8
172.6
189.4
110.5
23.7
29.5
60.2
26.6
73.2 100.6
104.8
53.8
11.4
29.1
1.86
2002 March 143.3
10.5
26.5
37.4
43.2
21.6
4.1
29.3
53.3
26.5
67.0
90.4
87.1
41.7
8.7
28.7
1.61
June 147.2
10.4
26.7
37.9
45.5
22.4
4.3
29.4
54.2
26.2
66.8
90.6
90.9
42.6
9.0
28.8
1.63
Sept 155.0
11.4
28.9
39.9
46.9
23.4
4.5
29.3
56.4
28.2
71.4
94.5
92.6
44.2
9.4
28.7
1.70
Dec 150.6
11.2
28.8
38.2
45.0
23.0
4.5
29.3
54.8
27.7
71.0
90.4
88.8
43.5
9.3
28.7
1.65
2003 March 147.4
10.9
27.9
37.5
44.0
22.6
4.6
29.3
54.7
26.8
69.1
92.8
90.5
43.7
9.6
28.8
1.66
June 155.1
10.7
28.5
39.3
47.4
24.5
4.7
29.5
56.9
26.0
70.0
96.4
96.4
46.9
9.6
28.9
1.73
Sept 162.8
11.5
30.5
41.0
49.3
25.6
5.0
29.4
59.1
27.7
74.0
99.4
99.2
48.3
10.1
28.9
1.79
Dec 156.0
11.2
29.7
39.1
46.5
24.6
4.8
29.4
56.6
27.1
72.1
94.6
93.6
46.5
9.8
28.8
1.72
2004 March 155.2
11.0
29.3
38.7
46.6
24.7
4.9
29.4
56.8
26.5
70.8
95.0
97.9
47.4
9.8
28.9
1.74
June 157.4
10.7
29.3
39.4
47.7
25.2
5.0
29.5
57.6
25.7
70.9
96.6
100.4
48.5
10.1
29.0
1.76
Sept 165.4
11.7
31.4
41.6
49.0
26.3
5.4
29.4
59.9
27.7
75.0 101.0
102.0
50.1
10.7
28.9
1.83
Dec 161.7
11.6
31.1
40.3
47.2
26.0
5.5
29.4
58.5
27.6
74.3
97.7
98.2
49.4
10.9
28.9
1.79
2005 March 154.3
10.9
29.3
38.9
45.0
24.7
5.4
29.4
56.5
26.0
69.6
94.0
97.6
48.5
10.7
29.0
1.74
June 159.8
10.7
29.6
40.3
47.5
26.2
5.4
29.5
57.8
25.3
69.7
96.2
101.9
50.8
10.6
29.1
1.78
Sept 170.2
11.9
32.5
43.7
49.4
26.9
5.7
29.4
60.9
27.6
75.7 103.2
104.9
51.6
11.1
29.0
1.88
Dec 161.7
11.3
30.7
41.4
46.3
26.3
5.7
29.4
57.9
26.3
71.3
97.9
98.3
50.4
11.0
29.0
1.78
2006 March 159.5
11.1
30.5
40.7
45.3
26.3
5.6
29.5
58.2
26.3
70.9
96.1
101.6
52.0
11.0
29.1
1.79
June 166.2
11.4
31.2
42.9
47.6
27.1
5.9
29.5
60.0
26.6
71.8 100.4
105.7
53.0
11.3
29.1
1.85
Sept 174.9
12.0
33.5
45.6
49.0
28.9
6.0
29.4
62.4
27.7
76.1 105.4
107.5
55.9
11.4
29.1
1.93
Dec 169.0
11.1
32.6
43.5
47.5
28.1
6.2
29.5
60.3
25.7
74.0 100.5
104.3
54.4
11.8
29.2
1.86
20075 March 163.3P
10.8P
30.8P
42.5P
45.5P
27.4P
6.3P
29.6P
59.4P
25.4P
70.1P
97.6P 105.8P
54.8P
12.1P
29.3P
1.83P
June 169.2P
10.8P
31.4P
44.4P
47.7P
28.7P
6.2P
29.6P
60.9P
25.1P
70.7P 100.9P 109.6P
56.8P
11.9P
29.4P
1.88P
Sept 181.1P
11.8P
37.4P
48.5P
50.0P
29.8P
6.3P
29.5P
64.5P
27.3P
77.1P 109.1P 113.7P
58.3P
12.0P
29.2P
1.99P
Note: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
1 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population. 2 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population. This measure is more appropriate for use when analysing trends or making comparisons between different geographies.
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR (total period fertility rate). 4 Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly age-specific fertility rates are adjusted for days in the quarter. They are not adjusted for seasonality. 5 Birth rates for 2007 are based on the 2006-based population projections for 2007. p provisional.
Office for National Statistics
50
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 3.2
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), mean age and percentages
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
S u m m e r 2008
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Age of mother at birth
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age1
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Registration2
35–39 40 and
over
Joint
Sole
Same3 Different3
address addresses
Live births outside marriage (numbers)
Percentage of total live births
in age group
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
{
1971
65.7
21.6
22.0
11.5
6.2
3.2
1.1
23.7
8.4
26.1
7.7
4.7
5.7
7.0
9.0 45.5
1976
53.8
19.8
16.6
9.7
4.7
2.3
0.7
23.3
9.2
34.2
9.1
4.4
5.2
8.6
10.1 51.0
1981
81.0
26.4
28.8
14.3
7.9
1.3
0.9
23.4
12.8
46.7
14.8
6.6
6.2
3.9
12.5 58.2
1986
141.3
39.6
54.1
27.7
13.1
5.7
1.1
23.8
21.4
69.0
28.2
12.1
10.1
12.6
14.7
46.6
19.6
1991
211.3
43.4
77.8
52.4
25.7
9.8
2.1
24.8
30.2
82.9
44.9
21.1
16.0
18.3
21.3
54.6
19.8
1992
215.2
40.1
77.1
55.9
28.9
10.9
2.3
25.2
31.2
83.7
47.2
22.8
17.3
19.3
22.9
55.4
20.7
1993
216.5
38.2
75.0
57.5
31.4
11.9
2.5
25.5
32.2
84.8
49.4
24.4
18.4
20.2
23.5
54.8
22.0
1994
215.5
35.9
71.0
58.5
34.0
13.4
2.7
25.8
32.4
85.5
50.6
25.5
18.9
21.2
25.2
57.5
19.8
1995
219.9
36.3
69.7
59.6
37.0
14.4
3.0
26.0
33.9
86.6
53.3
27.4
20.4
22.0
26.2
58.1
20.1
1996
232.7
39.3
71.1
62.3
40.5
16.2
3.2
26.1
35.8
88.0
56.5
29.5
21.7
23.4
26.7
58.1
19.9
1997
238.2
41.1
69.5
63.4
42.2
18.2
3.7
26.2
37.0
88.7
58.6
31.3
22.5
24.3
28.6
59.5
19.3
1998
240.6
43.0
67.8
62.4
43.9
19.6
3.9
26.3
37.8
89.1
59.7
32.3
23.3
24.8
29.0
60.9
18.3
1999
241.9
43.0
67.5
61.2
45.0
20.8
4.3
26.4
38.9
89.0
61.0
33.6
24.3
25.6
30.2
61.8
18.2
2000
238.6
41.1
67.5
59.1
43.9
22.3
4.7
26.5
39.5
89.7
62.6
34.6
24.4
26.2
31.0
62.7
18.2
2001
238.1
39.5
68.1
56.8
45.2
23.3
5.1
26.7
40.0
89.5
62.6
35.5
25.3
26.9
31.6
63.2
18.4
2002
242.0
38.9
70.2
55.8
46.4
25.1
5.6
26.8
40.6
89.5
63.3
36.4
25.7
27.7
32.2
63.7
18.5
2003
257.2
39.9
75.7
58.2
49.2
27.8
6.4
26.9
41.4
90.2
64.9
37.1
26.3
28.5
33.3
63.5
19.0
269.7
41.0
79.8
61.4
50.7
29.7
7.1
27.0
42.2
91.0
65.9
38.4
26.6
29.0
34.0
63.6
19.6
2004
2005
276.5
41.2
82.1
64.4
50.8
30.3
7.7
27.0
42.8
91.8
67.2
39.2
27.0
29.1
34.8
63.5
20.2
2006
291.4
42.3
87.7
69.3
51.4 32.2
8.4
27.0
43.5
93.0
68.6
40.1
27.1
29.2
35.5
63.7
20.8
58.0
9.4
16.7
13.6
10.9
6.0
1.3
26.8
40.5
89.4
63.0
36.4
25.4
27.7
31.5
63.2
18.5
2002 March
June
58.3
9.3
16.6
13.5
11.4
6.1
1.4
26.8
39.6
89.4
62.2
35.6
25.0
27.2
31.7
64.2
18.2
Sept
63.4
10.2
18.4
14.6
12.3
6.5
1.5
26.8
40.9
89.3
63.8
36.6
26.1
27.9
32.7
63.9
18.5
Dec
62.3
10.0
18.4
14.1
11.9
6.5
1.5
26.8
41.4
89.7
64.1
36.9
26.4
28.0
32.8
63.3
18.9
2003 March
61.0
9.8
18.0
13.9
11.6
6.3
1.5
26.8
41.4
90.1
64.5
37.0
26.9
29.1
33.3
63.0
18.9
June
62.8
9.6
18.3
14.2
12.2
6.9
1.6
27.0
40.5
90.0
64.0
36.2
25.7
28.3
33.7
64.0
18.5
Sept
67.6
10.3
20.0
15.3
13.0
7.3
1.7
26.9
41.5
90.2
65.6
38.3
26.4
28.6
33.3
63.7
19.3
Dec
65.8
10.2
19.5
14.9
12.5
7.3
1.6
26.9
42.2
90.4
65.6
38.0
27.7
29.5
32.9
63.3
19.4
2004 March
65.2
10.1
19.3
14.8
12.5
7.0
1.7
26.9
42.0
91.2
65.8
38.2
26.8
28.2
34.3
63.1
19.4
June
65.2
9.8
19.1
14.9
12.5
7.3
1.7
27.0
41.4
91.0
65.1
37.7
26.2
28.8
34.5
63.9
19.5
Sept
70.2
10.7
20.7
16.1
13.0
7.9
1.8
27.0
42.4
91.2
66.1
38.6
26.5
30.0
33.5
63.7
19.7
Dec
69.1
10.6
20.7
15.7
12.7
7.5
1.9
26.9
42.7
90.6
66.6
39.0
27.0
29.0
33.9
63.6
19.8
2005 March
66.3
10.1
19.6
15.2
12.2
7.3
1.9
27.0
43.0
92.0
67.0
39.0
27.1
29.6
35.2
63.1
20.3
June
66.6
9.8
19.7
15.4
12.5
7.4
1.8
27.0
41.7
91.2
66.5
38.2
26.4
28.1
33.5
63.7
19.8
Sept
73.7
10.9
22.1
17.3
13.4
7.9
2.1
26.9
43.3
92.0
68.0
39.6
27.2
29.3
35.7
63.7
20.3
Dec
69.9
10.4
20.7
16.5
12.6
7.7
2.0
27.0
43.2
92.1
67.4
39.8
27.3
29.5
34.8
63.5
20.3
2006 March
68.7
10.3
20.8
16.0
12.0
7.6
1.9
26.9
43.1
93.1
68.1
39.4
26.5
28.9
34.4
63.1
20.9
June
71.4
10.5
21.2
16.9
12.8
7.8
2.1
27.0
43.0
92.6
68.0
39.4
26.9
28.8
35.0
63.7
20.6
Sept
76.8
11.1
23.1
18.6
13.4
8.4
2.2
27.0
43.9
92.8
69.0
40.7
27.3
29.2
36.9
64.1
20.5
Dec
74.5
10.3
22.6
17.8
13.2
8.4
2.2
27.1
44.1
93.3
69.2
40.9
27.8
29.8
35.7
63.6
21.0
54.5
49.0
41.8
{
2007 March
June
Sept
1
2
3
p
72.1P
73.4P
80.7P
10.1P
10.0P
11.0P
21.6P
21.8P
24.4P
17.6P
18.2P
20.3P
12.6P
13.0P
13.9P
8.2P
8.3P
8.8P
2.2P
2.2P
2.2P
27.1P
27.1P
27.0P
44.2P
43.4P
44.5P
93.4P
92.5P
93.2P
69.9P
69.4P
70.5P
41.4P
41.0P
41.8P
27.6P
27.2P
27.8P
29.8P
28.8P
29.5P
35.4P
34.6P
24.8P
64.1P
65.1P
65.2P
23.9
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
21.2
20.8
19.9
19.2
18.4
17.8
17.4
16.8
16.3
15.6
18.3
17.7
17.5
17.8
18.1
17.4
18.0
17.4
17.4
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.5
16.0
16.2
16.0
15.6
15.4
15.4
20.5P 15.4P
19.9P 14.9P
19.9P 14.9P
Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole).
Usual address(es) of parents.
provisional
51
33.8
25.6
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 3.3
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Live births: within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order1
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands) and mean age
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Live births within marriage
Mean Age of mother at birth
age2
(years)
All
Under
20–24
25–29
30–34
ages
20
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age2
(years)
Live births within marriage to remarried women
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
717.5
530.5
553.5
519.7
487.9
61.1
38.1
30.1
17.8
8.9
263.7
165.6
165.7
138.0
95.6
235.7
211.0
201.5
201.3
196.3
103.4
86.1
118.7
116.4
135.5
42.1
23.9
31.5
39.8
43.8
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
7.7
26.4
26.6
27.2
27.9
28.9
19.4
26.7
38.8
41.7
39.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.9
3.6
2.6
1.6
6.6
10.5
13.4
13.2
10.8
6.1
8.7
14.1
15.4
15.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
8.7
9.1
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.1
33.1
30.4
30.9
31.7
32.4
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
428.2
416.8
404.9
395.3
380.0
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
61.0
54.7
49.1
45.7
43.2
157.9
148.8
139.4
130.7
120.7
144.2
145.9
145.3
144.6
140.3
51.1
53.3
56.7
59.3
60.5
8.4
8.9
9.2
9.6
9.9
29.8
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.6
33.3
32.6
31.4
30.2
27.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
7.2
6.4
5.8
5.1
4.3
14.0
13.9
13.1
12.4
11.3
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
33.2
33.4
33.6
33.9
34.1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
365.8
356.5
354.1
364.2
370.0
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.3
4.1
40.3
40.7
40.7
40.9
41.3
111.6
103.1
97.6
98.7
98.5
136.2
133.7
134.1
138.0
139.8
62.7
63.2
65.4
69.6
72.6
10.4
11.1
11.8
12.7
13.7
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.2
31.2
25.8
23.9
22.8
22.6
21.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
3.7
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.2
10.4
9.5
8.9
8.4
7.7
8.9
8.6
8.5
8.8
8.6
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
34.3
34.5
34.7
35.0
35.1
2005
2006
369.3
378.2
3.7
3.2
40.0
40.1
100.0
103.3
137.4
138.0
73.8
78.3
14.5
15.3
31.3
31.4
20.0
18.7
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
2.1
1.9
6.8
6.1
8.1
7.7
2.7
2.7
35.3
35.4
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
90.8
94.8
98.1
94.5
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7
9.8
10.0
10.4
10.0
24.6
26.0
27.0
25.7
33.3
34.8
35.6
34.3
18.7
19.3
20.5
19.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
4.0
31.4
31.4
31.4
31.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
35.3
35.4
35.4
35.5
2007 MarchP
91.9
0.7
9.3
24.9
33.0
19.2
4.1
31.5
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.9
1.2
0.4
35.5
First live births
Second live births
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
283.6
217.2
224.3
206.9
193.7
49.5
30.2
23.6
13.8
6.7
135.8
85.4
89.5
74.7
51.2
74.8
77.2
77.2
79.3
84.5
17.2
19.7
27.8
30.8
40.2
5.1
3.9
5.4
7.5
9.7
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
23.9
24.8
25.3
26.2
27.5
240.8
203.6
205.7
189.2
178.3
10.7
7.4
6.1
3.6
2.0
93.6
62.5
59.0
47.5
32.8
94.1
91.8
82.7
78.9
73.9
31.8
34.7
47.7
45.5
53.0
8.9
6.2
9.1
12.3
14.7
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.9
26.2
26.8
27.4
28.0
28.9
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
168.1
163.0
157.0
155.7
153.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
32.3
28.9
25.9
24.3
23.5
71.0
67.2
63.1
60.6
57.4
46.6
47.7
48.1
49.5
50.0
12.1
13.1
13.8
15.0
16.1
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
28.5
28.8
29.0
29.2
29.3
158.1
153.8
150.4
146.9
139.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
20.6
18.5
16.6
15.5
14.4
57.3
53.4
50.0
46.4
41.8
58.5
59.1
59.4
58.9
56.6
18.1
19.2
20.7
22.2
22.6
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.7
30.9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
146.5
143.9
145.2
151.0
154.5
156.0
161.1
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.6
21.6
22.2
22.4
22.2
22.6
22.1
22.7
52.7
48.8
47.1
48.4
48.9
50.0
51.9
49.4
49.7
51.0
54.2
55.5
55.7
56.4
16.6
16.8
18.1
19.6
20.7
21.4
23.4
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.8
4.0
29.6
29.6
29.8
29.9
30.0
30.1
30.2
134.7
132.2
130.3
132.9
133.7
132.0
134.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
13.7
13.7
13.5
13.9
13.8
13.2
12.8
38.4
35.7
33.0
32.5
31.9
32.1
32.8
54.8
53.8
53.7
54.3
54.5
52.8
52.8
23.8
24.8
25.6
27.1
28.3
28.6
30.5
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.0
31.1
31.2
31.4
31.5
31.6
31.7
31.8
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
37.8
39.5
42.2
41.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
5.4
5.5
5.9
5.9
12.1
12.8
13.8
13.2
13.4
13.8
14.7
14.5
5.4
5.6
6.2
6.2
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.1
30.2
30.2
30.2
30.3
32.5
35.0
34.3
32.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.1
7.9
8.5
8.4
7.9
12.8
13.9
13.4
12.8
7.3
7.8
8.0
7.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
31.7
31.8
31.8
31.8
2007 MarchP
39.7
0.6
5.3
12.7
13.8
6.1
1.1
30.4
31.7
0.1
2.8
7.8
12.3
7.3
1.3
31.9
Third live births
Fourth and higher order live births3
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
111.7
71.0
82.4
80.8
76.1
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
26.6
14.4
14.1
12.7
9.4
43.6
29.8
29.5
30.2
26.8
27.9
19.5
28.7
25.6
27.5
10.4
5.8
8.7
10.5
10.5
2.2
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.8
28.7
28.8
29.5
29.9
30.4
81.4
38.8
41.1
42.7
39.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.3
23.2
12.2
12.0
13.0
11.1
26.5
12.1
14.5
14.5
14.8
17.6
8.0
8.3
9.4
8.9
6.5
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.7
30.7
30.7
31.1
31.2
31.6
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
66.7
65.3
63.2
60.4
56.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.7
4.2
20.5
19.6
18.1
16.4
14.7
26.1
26.0
25.1
24.0
22.3
11.7
12.0
12.7
13.1
13.0
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.8
32.0
35.3
34.7
34.2
32.3
30.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
9.0
8.6
8.1
7.4
6.8
13.1
13.1
12.7
12.1
11.4
9.2
9.0
9.4
9.0
8.8
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
32.0
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
54.9
52.1
50.3
52.0
52.5
52.2
53.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.7
14.1
12.8
11.8
12.1
12.1
12.3
12.8
21.1
19.8
19.0
19.2
19.3
18.7
18.5
13.5
13.2
13.1
14.1
14.3
14.5
15.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.1
32.1
32.2
32.3
32.5
32.5
32.5
32.6
29.7
28.3
28.2
28.4
29.3
29.2
29.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
6.4
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.9
10.9
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.5
10.2
10.3
8.7
8.4
8.5
8.8
9.2
9.4
9.4
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.1
13.2
13.9
12.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.8
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.5
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
32.5
32.5
32.6
32.7
7.4
7.2
7.6
7.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
32.8
33.0
33.1
33.1
33.2
33.3
33.2
33.3
33.2
33.2
33.3
2007 MarchP
12.6
0.0
0.9
3.0
4.4
3.5
0.8
32.6
7.2
0.0
0.2
1.4
2.5
2.3
0.8
33.3
1 Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
2 The mean ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age, marital status or parity.
3 Mean age at birth refers to fourth live births only.
p Provisional.
Office for National Statistics
52
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 4.1
S u m m e r 2008
Conceptions: age of woman at conception
England and Wales (residents)
Numbers (thousands) and rates; and percentage terminated by abortion
Age of woman at conception
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 16
Under 18
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
12.1
14.1
16.0
17.0
17.8
19.6
20.9
22.8
23.6
25.4
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.6
8.4
(a) numbers (thousands)
1991
1996
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
2006 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
2007 March1,P
1991
1996
853.7
7.5
40.1
101.6
816.9
8.9
43.5
94.9
774.0
7.9
42.0
98.8
767.0
8.1
41.3
97.7
763.7
7.9
41.0
96.0
787.0
7.9
42.0
97.1
806.8
8.0
42.2
98.6
826.8
7.6
42.2
101.3
841.8
7.9
42.3
102.3
866.8
7.8
41.6
102.7
198.2
1.9
10.5
24.5
198.5
2.1
10.8
24.7
200.1
2.0
10.2
23.7
210.0
2.0
10.7
25.7
207.9
2.0
10.9
26.2
200.1
1.9
10.6
25.0
203.6
1.8
10.0
24.0
215.2
1.9
10.8
26.1
204.6
1.9
10.4
25.1
204.7
2.0
10.5
25.1
210.9
2.0
10.4
25.3
221.7
2.0
11.0
26.8
214.0
1.8
10.2
25.4
211.7
2.0
10.5
25.6
214.2
1.9
9.9
24.6
226.9
2.0
10.9
27.0
220.6
2.0
10.7
26.4
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age group)
77.7
8.9
44.6
64.1
76.2
9.5
46.3
63.2
233.3
179.8
157.6
159.0
161.6
167.8
175.3
181.3
185.5
190.5
42.9
43.2
43.1
46.1
45.9
43.7
44.1
47.7
45.4
45.2
45.6
49.3
47.5
46.7
46.1
50.3
48.8
281.5
252.6
218.5
209.3
199.3
199.4
199.8
205.1
211.3
221.4
49.4
49.1
49.3
52.0
51.1
49.3
50.7
54.0
50.8
51.0
53.3
56.2
54.2
53.5
55.1
58.6
56.3
167.5
200.0
197.1
195.3
196.7
204.3
209.0
209.6
209.2
211.7
51.2
51.1
52.8
54.0
52.6
50.4
52.7
54.0
51.0
50.7
53.1
54.3
52.4
51.2
53.3
54.7
52.0
57.6
75.5
86.0
88.7
92.2
98.9
103.1
106.8
110.0
115.0
25.2
25.2
26.1
26.7
26.6
25.9
26.6
27.6
26.6
26.9
27.5
29.1
28.3
28.2
28.8
29.8
28.9
120.2
110.1
135.1
127.6
90.1
96.3
34.4
40.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
2006 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
2007 March1,P
1991
1996
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
2006 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
2007 March1,P
71.9
8.3
70.9
8.3
70.3
8.0
72.2
7.9
73.7
7.9
75.2
7.5
76.0
7.8
78.0
7.7
73.6
7.8
72.8
8.3
72.5
7.9
76.0
7.8
76.2
7.8
73.2
7.7
73.6
7.1
77.7
7.4
75.1
7.6
74.2
8.0
75.5
7.8
79.3
7.9
78.2
7.1
76.4
8.2
76.4
7.7
80.9
8.0
80.4
8.0
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
19.4
51.1
20.8
49.2
22.6
52.6
22.7
54.0
23.2
55.8
22.5
55.6
22.5
57.4
22.4
57.2
22.2
57.1
22.3
59.8
22.8
58.9
23.1
58.3
21.6
56.9
22.5
55.7
22.7
58.2
23.0
57.2
21.9
56.8
22.0
56.3
22.5
57.5
22.7
57.0
21.4
56.2
22.2
57.5
22.5
59.0
23.2
59.5
21.6
60.5
22.0
60.0
22.7
62.7
45.1
43.9
42.7
42.9
42.4
41.8
41.4
40.7
42.9
43.5
40.6
42.6
43.5
42.2
39.2
42.4
41.5
41.1
40.5
42.8
40.4
41.3
38.6
42.4
42.6
63.1
62.5
60.8
60.6
60.0
60.3
60.1
60.0
61.1
60.5
57.0
61.5
63.2
60.1
56.8
61.5
60.0
59.1
59.0
62.4
60.3
60.1
57.0
62.6
62.4
103.9
103.2
102.5
104.4
107.2
109.0
108.7
109.1
107.2
106.2
104.3
111.0
111.5
105.9
105.0
112.9
108.9
106.7
105.7
113.6
111.2
107.6
104.4
113.4
111.9
118.0
115.7
114.2
119.0
122.0
125.1
125.8
129.0
121.3
120.0
119.4
126.9
125.4
121.1
122.6
129.9
123.8
122.1
125.6
131.7
129.2
125.4
126.9
134.1
130.7
95.3
95.3
96.7
101.7
106.0
109.6
112.0
117.1
104.6
103.6
106.6
109.8
109.3
105.5
109.9
113.2
109.8
108.5
113.3
116.7
116.2
113.1
117.5
121.7
119.1
42.9
43.2
44.3
47.0
49.1
51.0
53.2
56.1
48.6
48.0
49.3
50.5
51.1
49.7
50.6
52.8
51.8
52.0
52.8
55.9
55.7
55.1
55.7
57.8
57.6
39.9
40.0
43.0
44.2
45.7
45.3
45.7
45.6
46.3
48.5
46.1
46.2
45.3
45.0
45.7
46.3
45.8
44.5
47.3
45.8
45.3
46.9
47.7
49.1
48.1
49.0
50.9
34.5
36.2
38.6
39.3
40.4
39.9
40.2
40.1
40.3
41.9
40.2
40.9
39.5
40.3
40.2
40.8
40.0
39.3
41.1
40.3
39.0
40.6
41.6
42.6
41.4
42.0
43.4
22.2
25.7
28.5
29.2
29.7
28.8
29.0
28.9
28.6
28.7
29.5
29.3
28.0
29.0
29.4
29.2
28.4
28.6
29.2
28.9
27.5
28.7
29.1
29.8
27.8
28.3
29.7
13.4
15.6
17.5
17.7
18.4
17.9
17.9
18.2
18.0
18.1
17.9
18.4
17.1
18.1
18.5
18.6
17.9
17.8
18.1
18.6
17.5
17.8
18.4
18.9
17.6
17.5
18.5
13.7
14.1
14.7
14.5
14.6
13.9
13.6
13.2
13.2
13.1
13.8
14.2
13.0
13.5
13.4
13.7
12.8
13.0
13.1
13.9
12.6
13.1
13.0
13.9
12.8
12.8
13.1
22.0
21.2
21.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
18.9
18.3
17.7
17.2
19.7
19.2
18.0
18.5
18.2
19.2
17.8
18.2
18.0
17.8
17.2
17.7
17.5
17.9
16.4
16.9
17.0
9.1
9.4
9.6
10.3
10.7
11.4
11.5
12.2
10.4
10.8
10.5
11.2
11.4
11.5
11.1
11.4
11.4
11.4
11.7
11.5
12.2
12.4
12.1
12.2
12.5
41.6
37.6
37.0
35.4
34.6
34.6
34.7
33.0
32.8
31.9
34.5
36.1
33.8
34.5
32.9
33.5
33.0
32.5
32.6
33.8
32.1
32.7
31.1
31.7
32.9
31.8
31.4
Note: Conception figures are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
Rates for women of all ages, under 16, under 18, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15–44, 13–15, 15–17, 15–19 and 40–44 respectively.
For a quarterly analysis of conceptions to women under 18 for local authority areas see the National Statistics website, www.statistics.gov.uk
1 Figures for conceptions by age for the March quarter of 2007 exclude maternities where the mother’s age was not recorded.
p provisional
53
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Period expectation of life at birth and selected age
Table 5.1
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Years
Year
Males
At birth
5
20
30
At age
Year
50
60
70
80
Females
At At age
birth
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
United Kingdom
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.2
66.9
67.8
68.9
69.8
52.3
53.2
54.2
55.1
42.7
43.6
44.7
45.6
24.1
24.9
26.0
26.9
16.3
16.8
17.7
18.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
72.7
73.4
74.3
74.9
57.9
58.6
59.5
60.1
48.2
48.8
49.7
50.3
29.2
29.8
30.6
31.2
20.8
21.2
21.9
22.3
13.3
13.8
14.3
14.5
7.5
7.8
8.2
8.3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
75.3
75.6
75.9
76.2
76.5
76.9
70.9
71.2
71.4
71.7
72.0
72.4
56.1
56.4
56.6
56.9
57.3
57.6
46.6
46.9
47.1
47.4
47.7
48.0
28.0
28.2
28.5
28.7
29.0
29.4
19.5
19.7
19.9
20.2
20.5
20.8
12.3
12.5
12.6
12.8
13.1
13.4
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.4
7.6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
80.1
80.4
80.5
80.7
80.9
81.3
75.6
75.8
75.9
76.1
76.4
76.7
60.8
61.0
61.1
61.3
61.5
61.9
51.0
51.2
51.3
51.5
51.7
52.0
31.9
32.1
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.9
23.0
23.2
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.5
15.8
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.8
9.0
England and Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.0
72.1
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.0
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.3
42.9
43.8
44.8
45.8
24.3
25.0
26.1
27.1
16.4
16.9
17.8
18.6
10.1
10.5
11.2
11.6
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.1
58.8
59.7
60.2
48.3
49.0
49.9
50.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
75.6
75.9
76.1
76.4
76.8
77.2
71.1
71.4
71.6
71.9
72.3
72.7
56.4
56.7
56.9
57.2
57.5
57.9
46.8
47.1
47.3
47.6
47.9
48.3
28.1
28.4
28.6
28.9
29.2
29.6
19.6
19.9
20.1
20.3
20.6
21.0
12.3
12.5
12.7
12.9
13.2
13.5
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
80.3
80.5
80.7
80.9
81.1
81.5
75.8
76.0
76.1
76.3
76.6
76.9
60.9
61.2
61.3
61.5
61.7
62.0
51.1
51.3
51.5
51.7
51.9
52.2
32.0
32.2
32.3
32.5
32.7
33.1
23.1
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.8
24.1
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.6
15.9
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.1
England
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.1
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.4
42.9
43.8
44.9
45.8
24.3
25.1
26.2
27.1
16.4
17.0
17.8
18.7
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.7
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.2
58.8
59.7
60.3
48.4
49.0
49.9
50.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
75.6
75.9
76.1
76.5
76.8
77.2
71.2
71.4
71.7
72.0
72.3
72.7
56.4
56.7
56.9
57.2
57.6
57.9
46.9
47.1
47.4
47.6
48.0
48.3
28.2
28.5
28.7
28.9
29.2
29.6
19.6
19.9
20.1
20.4
20.7
21.0
12.4
12.6
12.7
12.9
13.2
13.5
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
80.3
80.6
80.7
80.9
81.1
81.5
75.8
76.0
76.1
76.4
76.6
76.9
61.0
61.2
61.3
61.5
61.7
62.1
51.2
51.4
51.5
51.7
51.9
52.3
32.0
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.8
33.1
23.1
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.8
24.1
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.6
15.9
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.1
Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.8
66.5
67.5
68.8
69.4
51.9
52.8
54.1
54.7
42.2
43.2
44.6
45.3
23.6
24.6
25.8
26.6
15.8
16.6
17.6
18.2
9.7
10.3
11.0
11.3
5.6
6.0
6.4
6.4
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
72.3
73.3
74.3
74.6
57.5
58.5
59.5
59.7
47.7
48.7
49.7
49.9
28.9
29.7
30.6
30.9
20.5
21.1
21.8
22.1
13.1
13.7
14.3
14.4
7.4
7.8
8.3
8.3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
74.8
75.3
75.5
75.8
76.1
76.6
70.4
70.8
70.9
71.2
71.6
72.0
55.7
56.0
56.2
56.5
56.8
57.3
46.2
46.6
46.8
47.0
47.3
47.7
27.6
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.7
29.2
19.1
19.5
19.7
19.9
20.2
20.6
12.0
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.2
6.8
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
79.7
80.0
80.1
80.3
80.6
80.9
75.2
75.4
75.5
75.7
76.0
76.3
60.4
60.6
60.7
60.9
61.1
61.5
50.6
50.8
50.9
51.1
51.3
51.6
31.5
31.7
31.8
32.0
32.2
32.6
22.6
22.8
22.9
23.1
23.3
23.7
14.7
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.5
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.7
8.9
Scotland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
65.2
66.0
67.1
67.8
50.6
51.4
52.5
53.1
41.1
41.9
43.0
43.7
22.9
23.5
24.6
25.3
15.4
15.8
16.6
17.3
9.6
9.9
10.4
10.9
5.5
5.7
6.1
6.3
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
71.2
71.9
72.7
73.3
56.4
57.1
57.9
58.5
46.7
47.3
48.1
48.8
27.9
28.4
29.2
29.8
19.7
20.1
20.7
21.2
12.7
13.0
13.5
13.8
7.2
7.5
7.9
8.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
73.1
73.3
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.6
68.6
68.8
69.0
69.3
69.7
70.1
53.9
54.2
54.3
54.6
55.0
55.4
44.6
44.8
45.0
45.2
45.6
45.9
26.3
26.6
26.7
27.0
27.3
27.7
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.1
19.4
11.5
11.7
11.8
12.0
12.2
12.5
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
78.6
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.3
79.6
74.0
74.2
74.3
74.5
74.7
75.0
59.2
59.4
59.5
59.7
59.9
60.2
49.4
49.6
49.7
49.9
50.1
50.4
30.5
30.7
30.8
30.9
31.1
31.4
21.8
22.0
22.1
22.2
22.4
22.7
14.1
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.7
14.9
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
Northern Ireland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
65.4
66.8
68.2
69.4
50.9
52.2
53.6
54.7
41.5
42.7
44.1
45.3
23.2
24.2
25.5
26.6
15.6
16.4
17.3
18.2
9.7
10.4
11.0
11.4
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
71.6
72.9
74.0
74.7
56.8
58.1
59.2
59.9
47.1
48.3
49.4
50.0
28.3
29.3
30.3
30.9
20.0
20.8
21.6
22.1
12.8
13.4
14.2
14.4
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
74.8
75.2
75.6
75.8
76.0
76.1
70.4
70.7
71.1
71.4
71.6
71.6
55.7
56.1
56.4
56.7
56.9
57.0
46.2
46.6
46.9
47.1
47.4
47.5
27.6
27.9
28.2
28.4
28.7
28.9
19.1
19.4
19.7
19.9
20.2
20.4
11.9
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.0
6.6
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
79.8
80.1
80.4
80.6
80.8
81.0
75.2
75.6
75.9
76.0
76.3
76.4
60.4
60.7
61.0
61.1
61.4
61.6
50.6
50.9
51.2
51.3
51.6
51.8
31.5
31.8
32.0
32.2
32.5
32.7
22.6
22.9
23.1
23.3
23.5
23.7
14.6
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.6
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
Note: All figures are based on a three-year period, so that for instance 2003 represents 2002–2004. Unless otherwise stated, the population estimates used to calculate these life expectancies are
the latest available at time of publication of the 2004–2006 interim life tables (28 November 2008). All figures are based on death registrations.
Office for National Statistics
54
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 6.1
S u m m e r 2008
Deaths: age and sex
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Age group
Under 11
1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
2.27
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.44
0.68
0.45
0.33
0.34
0.24
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
0.29
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
0.93
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
1.41
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
4.06
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
5.84
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
13.6
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
30.1
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
71.0
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
90.7
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
47.8
1999
264.3
2.08
0.41
2000
255.5
1.89
0.34
2001
252.4
1.81
0.32
2002
253.1
1.81
0.32
2003
253.9
1.81
0.31
2004
244.1
1.79
0.29
2005
243.3
1.87
0.28
2006
240.9
1.86
0.29
Females
1976
298.5
3.46
0.59
1981
288.9
2.90
0.53
1986
293.3
2.59
0.49
1991
292.5
2.19
0.44
1996
291.5
1.69
0.32
1999
291.8
1.55
0.30
2000
280.1
1.49
0.25
2001
277.9
1.43
0.27
2002
280.4
1.31
0.24
2003
284.4
1.50
0.28
2004
268.4
1.43
0.23
2005
269.1
1.37
0.22
2006
261.7
1.51
0.27
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age group)
Males
1976
12.5
16.2
0.65
1981
12.0
12.6
0.53
1986
11.8
11.0
0.44
1991
11.2
8.3
0.40
1996
10.7
6.8
0.32
0.22
0.22
0.19
0.20
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.26
0.90
0.87
0.88
0.83
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.84
1.27
1.22
1.27
1.24
1.23
1.15
1.11
1.21
3.85
3.76
3.63
3.47
3.26
3.10
2.89
3.13
5.93
6.05
6.07
6.20
6.32
6.19
6.14
6.32
13.6
13.4
13.3
12.9
12.7
12.2
12.1
12.3
28.7
27.9
27.5
27.7
28.2
27.0
27.3
27.6
64.3
60.6
57.5
56.3
55.1
52.5
51.0
48.9
90.4
87.1
87.0
88.3
89.6
87.3
84.8
81.9
52.3
51.9
52.7
53.6
54.0
51.3
54.7
56.2
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.20
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.43
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
0.51
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.46
0.46
0.48
0.44
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
1.85
1.67
1.69
1.59
1.61
1.57
1.49
1.48
1.38
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
3.66
3.79
3.87
3.77
3.77
3.86
3.80
3.81
3.80
12.8
10.5
8.8
8.4
8.9
9.0
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.5
8.1
8.2
8.1
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
18.2
18.0
17.6
17.6
17.7
18.0
17.6
17.8
17.9
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
50.2
45.1
42.2
40.5
39.6
39.0
36.9
36.0
34.5
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
96.7
93.9
89.3
88.8
90.0
92.7
88.3
86.4
81.2
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
108.7
117.2
113.4
113.9
116.3
117.9
109.4
113.1
111.9
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.14
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.18
0.88
0.82
0.72
0.72
0.60
0.96
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.85
0.92
0.89
0.88
0.94
1.01
2.09
1.83
1.68
1.76
1.67
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.56
4.06
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.9
11.9
50.3
45.6
42.8
38.1
34.5
116.4
105.2
101.2
93.1
85.0
243.2
226.5
215.4
205.6
198.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20062
Year and quarter
All ages
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1976
300.1
1981
289.0
1986
287.9
1991
277.6
1996
268.7
10.4
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.4
9.3
9.1
6.5
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.4
0.31
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.23
0.24
0.23
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.56
0.54
0.53
0.49
0.46
0.44
0.48
0.46
0.83
0.79
0.80
0.77
0.75
0.67
0.69
0.67
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.89
0.89
1.60
1.59
1.56
1.57
1.58
1.53
1.56
1.55
3.99
3.92
3.89
3.86
3.81
3.67
3.61
3.58
10.9
10.4
10.0
9.7
9.6
9.0
8.9
8.8
31.6
29.7
28.0
27.2
26.4
25.0
24.1
23.2
79.9
75.9
74.0
73.5
72.9
69.9
67.4
64.7
194.4
187.5
186.4
187.7
191.0
176.0
172.1
163.4
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
9.1
8.3
9.3
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
0.26
0.25
0.20
0.21
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.17
0.18
0.12
0.11
0.46
0.42
0.40
0.39
0.71
0.59
0.63
0.62
0.88
0.83
0.85
0.73
1.56
1.57
1.44
1.46
3.83
3.53
3.46
3.54
9.7
8.8
8.3
8.8
26.6
23.4
22.2
24.0
77.3
65.8
59.6
66.9
201.2
162.9
146.0
176.9
20062 March
June
Sept
Dec
10.2
9.0
8.4
8.9
5.3
5.5
5.4
5.6
0.29
0.24
0.14
0.26
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.46
0.45
0.51
0.43
0.72
0.69
0.58
0.69
0.95
0.89
0.83
0.90
1.59
1.57
1.49
1.54
3.82
3.60
3.43
3.50
9.5
8.8
8.3
8.7
25.4
23.3
21.5
22.5
73.7
63.7
58.7
62.7
189.6
158.5
143.8
162.1
20073 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
9.9
8.8
8.3
5.3
5.7
5.2
0.28
0.26
0.22
0.12
0.12
0.09
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.47
0.44
0.40
0.64
0.65
0.61
0.91
0.90
0.88
1.54
1.50
1.50
3.63
3.39
3.20
9.1
8.6
8.2
24.1
22.1
21.0
69.4
60.9
57.3
183.8
153.7
142.1
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.2
11.0
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.3
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.25
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.12
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.44
0.46
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.05
1.04
4.30
3.80
3.24
2.87
2.63
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.2
7.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
21.8
20.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.7
55.8
196.6
178.2
169.4
161.6
158.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20062,
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.4
10.6
9.9
9.9
9.6
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.6
0.24
0.20
0.22
0.20
0.24
0.20
0.19
0.22
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.43
0.44
0.42
0.44
0.43
0.42
0.40
0.39
1.01
1.00
0.96
0.94
0.95
0.93
0.90
0.92
2.61
2.62
2.57
2.54
2.51
2.39
2.38
2.33
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.6
19.2
18.1
17.4
17.0
16.7
15.8
15.4
14.8
53.4
50.8
50.1
50.4
51.3
48.6
48.1
45.7
162.6
155.2
155.0
159.4
165.6
154.3
152.7
143.8
March
June
Sept
Dec
11.6
9.5
8.7
9.8
4.8
4.7
3.9
4.2
0.22
0.20
0.14
0.19
0.09
0.10
0.06
0.08
0.13
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.20
0.25
0.20
0.22
0.32
0.27
0.24
0.24
0.46
0.37
0.36
0.41
0.95
0.97
0.86
0.84
2.57
2.31
2.32
2.31
6.0
5.5
5.4
5.6
17.3
15.0
13.8
15.3
57.0
46.6
42.0
46.8
184.7
144.2
129.7
152.7
20062 March
June
Sept
Dec
11.0
9.4
8.6
9.2
5.0
4.6
4.3
4.5
0.25
0.22
0.19
0.24
0.07
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.14
0.08
0.12
0.24
0.19
0.23
0.23
0.30
0.24
0.22
0.25
0.39
0.42
0.36
0.41
1.01
0.88
0.91
0.89
2.42
2.35
2.27
2.27
6.1
5.5
5.3
5.5
16.4
14.7
13.7
14.3
52.5
45.4
41.1
43.7
172.0
140.9
124.3
138.7
20073 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
10.8
9.2
8.5
4.5
4.6
4.1
0.24
0.22
0.15
0.07
0.10
0.06
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.27
0.18
0.18
0.26
0.22
0.28
0.38
0.44
0.35
0.96
0.87
0.87
2.29
2.32
2.22
5.9
5.5
5.2
16.1
14.1
13.1
51.2
42.9
40.0
166.4
136.6
125.3
2005
2005
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the numbers of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2005. 2006 figures and provisional 2007
figures relate to registrations.
Death rates from 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised mid-year population estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
1 Rates per 1,000 live births.
2 Death rates for 2006 have been calculated using the mid 2006 population estimates published on 22 August 2007.
3 Death rates for 2007 are based on the 2006-based population projections for 2007.
p provisional.
55
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 6.2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Deaths: subnational
Government Office Regions of England
Year and
quarter
North East
Rates
North
West
Yorkshire and
The Humber
East Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
11.7
11.6
11.9
11.6
10.8
11.7
11.6
11.7
11.5
10.7
11.2
11.1
11.2
10.9
10.3
10.7
10.5
10.8
10.7
10.0
10.7
10.6
10.6
10.7
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
9.9
9.4
9.0
8.8
8.7
8.2
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.5
9.8
11.7
11.7
11.4
11.6
11.3
2001
2002
2003
2004
20051
2006
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.0
10.8
10.5
11.0
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.2
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.1
9.9
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.7
10.2
10.3
10.5
9.9
9.9
9.7
9.9
10.0
9.9
9.5
9.4
9.4
7.9
7.8
7.9
7.3
7.1
6.8
9.9
10.0
9.9
9.4
9.4
9.2
11.0
11.1
11.2
10.4
10.4
10.2
20061 March
June
Sept
Dec
11.5
10.6
9.4
10.6
11.4
10.2
9.3
9.9
10.8
9.7
8.9
9.7
10.9
9.6
8.8
9.6
11.1
9.6
8.8
9.4
10.8
9.3
8.3
9.1
7.8
6.7
6.2
6.5
10.9
9.0
8.2
8.9
11.7
10.0
9.2
10.0
P
20071 March
JuneP
SeptP
11.9
9.9
9.4
11.7
9.9
9.2
11.0
9.5
8.8
10.7
9.1
8.5
11.0
9.4
8.5
10.3
8.8
8.3
7.4
6.5
6.1
10.1
8.8
8.2
11.6
9.8
9.2
Infant mortality (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
6.2
5.8
5.0
5.6
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.3
6.5
6.2
6.5
6.5
6.9
6.3
7.3
6.3
5.7
5.6
6.0
5.4
6.8
7.0
6.5
6.9
6.8
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.6
4.4
6.3
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.4
4.8
4.4
5.5
5.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
5.4
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.7
5.4
5.8
5.4
5.9
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.5
6.1
5.7
5.8
6.0
5.7
4.9
5.6
5.9
4.9
4.8
5.4
6.4
6.6
7.4
6.3
6.6
6.4
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.1
6.1
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
4.9
4.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.9
4.1
5.4
4.3
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.0
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
5.4
6.4
5.4
4.5
6.0
5.5
5.2
5.7
5.4
6.1
4.8
6.6
5.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
6.6
7.0
6.7
5.3
3.8
4.3
3.6
4.6
5.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.3
4.2
4.2
3.9
4.2
3.7
3.6
4.7
P
2007 March
JunePP
Sept
5.2
4.5
4.0
5.1
5.6
4.3
4.5
7.2
5.2
5.3
6.4
5.1
6.4
6.0
5.5
4.3
4.0
4.7
4.5
5.1
4.7
3.9
4.3
3.9
4.5
3.9
4.1
Neonatal mortality (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
4.1
3.7
3.1
4.1
4.4
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.1
5.0
4.2
3.7
3.7
4.3
4.1
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
5.0
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.0
4.4
3.7
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.8
3.9
3.3
3.2
3.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3.5
3.2
3.2
2.8
2.9
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.1
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.2
4.0
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.0
3.4
4.0
4.2
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.1
4.7
4.9
4.6
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.9
4.1
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.7
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.2
2.9
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
4.1
4.0
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.5
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.3
4.7
4.2
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.6
5.1
5.4
3.2
2.7
3.2
2.5
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.5
3.2
2.4
2.6
3.6
P
2007 March
JunePP
Sept
4.0
1.8
2.6
3.7
3.7
2.7
3.2
5.2
3.5
3.4
4.5
3.5
4.8
4.5
4.1
2.9
2.6
3.1
3.1
3.5
3.1
2.6
3.0
2.5
3.1
2.4
3.1
Perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
9.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.3
8.3
9.2
8.3
9.6
8.7
7.7
8.0
7.8
7.8
10.2
9.6
9.3
9.9
9.6
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.1
9.6
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
7.8
7.3
6.8
6.9
6.6
7.5
8.7
7.3
7.8
6.6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
7.8
8.1
7.8
7.9
7.8
8.0
8.7
8.5
9.0
8.4
8.2
8.3
7.5
9.0
9.1
9.4
9.4
8.5
7.9
8.5
9.5
8.1
7.6
8.4
9.1
10.0
10.2
9.6
9.9
9.2
7.1
7.5
7.3
7.6
6.4
6.7
8.9
9.3
9.6
9.3
8.5
8.8
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.8
6.6
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
8.2
8.7
7.5
7.8
9.0
8.3
8.0
7.8
7.6
9.2
8.4
8.7
8.7
9.1
8.4
7.6
9.6
10.1
9.6
7.4
7.4
7.0
6.6
6.0
9.1
8.7
8.7
8.9
7.6
6.8
6.6
7.0
6.5
6.8
6.2
7.0
P
2007 March
JuneP
SeptP
7.3
7.2
7.3
8.1
7.3
7.0
7.5
9.2
8.8
6.4
8.4
7.1
8.8
9.7
7.6
7.4
6.7
6.9
7.9
9.1
8.6
6.4
7.0
6.0
6.6
6.8
6.4
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year with the exception of 2006 figures and provisional 2007 figures which relate to registrations.
Death rates from 2002 to 2005 have been updated to include the latest revised mid-year population estimates that take into account improved estimates of international migration.
1 Total deaths rates for 2006 and 2007 have been calculated using the mid-2006 population estimates published on 22 August 2007.
p provisional.
Office for National Statistics
56
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 7.1
S u m m e r 2008
International migration: age and sex
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
All ages
Year and quarter
Persons
Males
0–14
Females
Persons
Males
15–24
Females
Persons
Males
25–44
Females
Persons
Males
45 and over
Females
Persons
Males
Females
Inflow
1991
1996
329
318
157
157
172
161
53
33
23
14
30
19
107
115
47
50
59
65
139
142
73
77
66
65
30
28
14
16
16
12
1998
1999
2000
2001
391
454
479
479
207
250
272
260
184
204
207
219
37
42
35
46
18
24
18
26
19
18
17
20
135
158
158
158
65
78
79
77
69
79
79
81
194
224
245
239
110
130
150
135
84
95
95
103
25
30
40
37
14
18
25
22
11
12
15
14
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
513
508
586
563
591
284
260
300
310
315
229
248
286
253
276
38
41
37
26
46
20
23
25
13
22
17
18
12
13
25
185
207
227
229
222
100
99
107
118
111
85
108
120
110
111
255
218
277
271
283
148
118
148
156
161
108
100
129
115
122
35
43
45
38
39
16
21
20
23
22
19
22
25
15
17
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
324
126
184
113
139
14
12
8
5
6
7
83
146
38
80
45
65
123
148
70
86
53
61
19
19
10
13
9
6
231
360
121
194
109
166
16
30
8
14
8
17
77
145
34
76
43
69
113
170
64
97
49
73
24
15
15
7
9
8
Outflow
1991
1996
285
264
145
134
139
130
44
38
20
16
25
22
76
63
38
24
38
39
131
139
69
79
62
60
33
24
18
15
15
9
1998
1999
2000
2001
251
291
321
306
131
158
178
172
121
133
142
135
24
27
26
25
15
19
11
14
10
8
15
11
70
87
84
84
31
42
45
41
39
45
39
43
130
143
175
153
71
79
102
88
59
64
73
65
27
34
36
45
14
18
20
29
12
16
16
16
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
358
361
342
359
400
194
192
172
206
228
164
169
170
153
173
25
35
28
28
30
15
19
13
15
17
10
16
15
13
13
92
84
79
81
87
44
37
36
45
41
48
47
43
36
46
185
188
172
190
215
106
105
95
113
131
79
82
77
77
84
56
55
63
60
68
28
31
28
33
39
28
24
35
27
29
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
137
222
79
127
58
95
10
18
6
9
4
9
25
56
13
33
12
24
78
112
49
64
29
48
24
35
11
21
13
14
165
235
93
135
72
101
12
18
7
10
5
8
35
51
17
24
19
27
86
129
51
79
35
50
32
37
18
21
13
16
+ 44
+ 55
+ 12
+ 23
+ 32
+ 31
+ 8
– 5
+ 3
– 2
+ 5
– 3
+ 31
+ 52
+ 9
+ 26
+ 22
+ 27
+ 8
+ 3
+ 4
– 2
+ 4
+ 5
– 3
+ 5
– 4
+ 2
+ 2
+ 3
+140
+163
+158
+173
+154
+147
+244
+204
+191
+ 76
+ 92
+ 94
+ 89
+ 90
+ 68
+128
+104
+ 88
+ 63
+ 71
+ 64
+ 85
+ 65
+ 79
+116
+ 99
+103
+ 13
+ 15
+ 9
+ 21
+ 13
+ 6
+ 9
– 2
+ 16
+ 3
+ 5
+ 7
+ 12
+ 5
+ 4
+ 13
– 2
+ 4
+ 10
+ 10
+ 3
+ 10
+ 8
+ 2
– 4
–
+ 11
+ 65
+ 71
+ 75
+ 74
+ 93
+122
+148
+148
+135
+ 34
+ 36
+ 34
+ 36
+ 30
+ 34
+ 40
+ 38
+ 64
+ 81
+ 70
+ 86
+ 39
+ 51
+ 48
+ 47
+ 25
+ 30
+ 23
+ 39
–
–
+
–
2
4
4
8
– – 1
+ 5
– 6
–
–
–
–
+ 56
+ 62
+ 71
+ 73
+ 70
+ 37
+ 60
+ 78
+ 75
+ 66
+ 70
+ 30
+105
+ 81
+ 68
+ 42
+ 12
+ 52 + 43
+ 30
+ 28
+ 18
+ 52
+ 37
+ 38
– 21 – 12 – 18 – 22 – 29 – 12 – 10 – 8
– 10 – 17 – 9
– 2
– 10
– 12
– 12
+102
+102
+ 65
+125
+ 47
+ 57
+ 28
+ 60
+ 55
+ 44
+ 37
+ 66
+ 4
– 6
+ 4
+ 12
+ 2
– 4
+ 1
+ 4
+ 2
– 2
+ 3
+ 9
+ 59
+ 89
+ 42
+ 94
+ 25
+ 48
+ 33
+ 42
+ 45
+ 35
+ 21
+ 22
+ 24
+ 13
– 6
– 16 – 2
– 8
– 4
– 8
+ 18
+ 52
+ 24
+ 42
+ 27
+ 41
+ 13
+ 18
+ 15
+ 23
– 7
– 22 – 3
– 14 – 4
– 8
Balance
1991
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
Note: These data have been revised following changes to the TIM methodology. Therefore they may not agree with estimates that have been published previously.
57
Office for National Statistics
2
3
1
2
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
International migration: country of last or next residence
Table 7.2
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Year and quarter
Commonwealth countries
Other foreign countries
All
countries
European
Union
Australia,
New
Zealand,
Canada
South
Africa
India,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Caribbean
Other
USA
Middle
East
Other
Inflow
1991
1996
329
318
95
98
44
37
7
11
17
15
16
11
4
4
42
33
24
32
11
14
69
63
1998
1999
2000
2001
391
454
479
479
109
96
89
83
64
63
63
76
20
29
22
23
18
26
34
32
10
13
16
19
6
7
6
4
31
37
48
46
37
31
24
25
13
15
30
31
84
138
146
142
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
513
508
586
563
591
87
98
150
182
205
59
64
59
61
60
28
28
37
29
21
36
45
62
62
69
11
13
28
24
32
5
4
6
2
3
50
51
56
41
34
29
30
27
25
23
33
26
29
19
21
176
150
131
118
122
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
324
78
104
30
31
19
9
27
35
7
17
1
1
18
24
8
17
7
12
44
74
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
231
360
72
133
28
32
13
7
26
43
13
19
1
2
14
20
9
14
8
14
46
76
Outflow
1991
1996
285
264
95
94
61
58
7
5
6
5
4
1
2
1
21
23
35
26
14
8
40
42
1998
1999
2000
2001
251
291
321
306
85
103
103
92
54
73
79
80
6
7
7
8
5
4
5
8
2
1
3
3
2
3
3
2
14
14
15
13
27
33
33
28
9
10
15
9
48
44
58
63
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
358
361
342
359
400
124
121
123
136
145
84
90
86
86
100
10
14
9
13
14
7
7
5
9
14
4
4
4
7
2
2
1
3
2
2
16
15
19
11
15
37
27
25
24
29
12
7
11
11
16
62
75
57
60
61
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
137
222
54
82
38
48
6
7
4
5
2
4
1
1
4
7
6
18
4
8
18
42
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
165
235
60
85
44
56
6
8
5
9
1
1
1
1
5
10
11
19
6
10
27
35
Balance
1991
1996
+44
+55
–
+5
–18
–21
+1
+5
+11
+10
+12
+10
+2
+3
+21
+10
–10
+7
–3
+5
+29
+21
1998
1999
2000
2001
+140
+163
+158
+173
+24
–7
–14
–9
+10
–10
–16
–4
+15
+22
+15
+14
+12
+22
+29
+24
+8
+12
+13
+16
+4
+4
+4
+1
+17
+23
+33
+33
+10
–2
–10
–3
+4
+5
+15
+21
+36
+94
+88
+79
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
+154
+147
+244
+204
+191
–37
–23
+27
+46
+60
–25
–26
–26
–25
–41
+17
+14
+28
+15
+7
+29
+38
+56
+53
+55
+7
+9
+25
+18
+30
+3
+3
+3
–
+1
+34
+36
+38
+30
+19
–9
+3
+2
+1
–6
+21
+19
+18
+8
+5
+114
+75
+74
+58
+61
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+102
+102
+25
+21
–8
–17
+13
+2
+23
+29
+5
+13
–
–
+13
+17
+1
–1
+3
+5
+26
+32
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
+65
+125
+13
+47
–16
–25
+7
–1
+21
+34
+13
+18
+1
–
+9
+10
–2
–4
+1
+4
+19
+42
Note: These data have been revised following changes to the TIM methodology. Therefore they may not agree with estimates that have been published previously.
Office for National Statistics
58
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 7.3
S u m m e r 2008
International migration: citizenship
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Year and quarter
All countries
British
Non-British
Citizenship (numbers)
European Union
All
Commonwealth
Other
foreign
British citizens as
percentage of all
citizens
Old
New
85
78
26
29
59
49
82
74
33
30
82
66
63
57
105
123
147
149
54
55
56
65
51
68
91
84
101
150
169
164
26
25
21
23
416
409
498
466
510
59
64
128
149
167
155
167
215
180
201
63
62
73
62
62
92
105
141
117
139
201
177
155
137
142
19
20
15
17
14
40
56
199
267
64
85
84
96
35
27
49
69
51
87
17
17
231
360
33
48
197
313
61
106
85
116
31
31
54
85
51
91
15
13
Outflow
1991
1996
285
264
154
156
130
108
53
44
35
32
18
17
17
14
43
32
54
59
1998
1999
2000
2001
251
291
321
306
126
139
161
158
126
152
160
149
49
59
57
49
33
41
47
51
20
29
32
32
13
12
15
19
44
52
55
49
50
48
50
52
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
358
361
342
359
400
185
191
195
185
207
174
171
147
174
194
52
50
42
54
66
58
59
53
60
67
42
42
33
37
42
16
17
19
23
24
64
62
52
59
61
52
53
57
52
52
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
137
222
77
108
60
114
20
34
23
37
14
23
9
14
17
42
56
49
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
165
235
90
117
75
118
28
38
24
43
15
27
9
15
24
37
54
50
Balance
1991
1996
+44
+55
–44
–62
+89
+116
–1
+28
+50
+47
+8
+12
+42
+35
+39
+41
:
:
1998
1999
2000
2001
+140
+163
+158
+173
–22
–24
–62
–48
+162
+187
+220
+221
+33
+8
+6
+8
+72
+82
+100
+98
+34
+26
+24
+33
+38
+56
+76
+65
+57
+98
+114
+115
:
:
:
:
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
+154
+147
+244
+204
+191
–87
–91
–107
–89
–126
+242
+238
+351
+293
+316
+7
+14
+85
+95
+100
+97
+109
+162
+120
+134
+21
+20
+40
+25
+20
+77
+88
+122
+94
+115
+137
+115
+104
+78
+81
:
:
:
:
:
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
+102
+102
–37
–52
+139
+154
+44
+50
+61
+59
+22
+4
+39
+55
+34
+45
:
:
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
+65
+125
–56
–69
+122
+194
+33
+67
+61
+73
+16
+4
+45
+69
+27
+54
:
:
Inflow
1991
1996
329
318
110
94
219
224
53
72
1998
1999
2000
2001
391
454
479
479
104
115
99
110
287
338
379
370
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
513
508
586
563
591
97
99
88
96
81
2005 Jan-June
July-Dec
239
324
2006 Jan-June
July-Dec
Note: These data have been revised following changes to the TIM methodology. Therefore they may not agree with estimates that have been published previously.
59
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
Table 8.1
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Internal migration
Recorded movements between constituent countries of the United Kingdom and Government Office Regions of England
Year and quarter
Numbers (thousands)
Government Office Regions of England
England
Wales
Inflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
105.4
93.7
115.6
95.8
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
103.4
108.1
111.1
110.9
111.2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Northern
Ireland
North East
North
West
Yorkshire
and The
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
50.4
45.4
43.9
55.8
9.7
6.8
8.8
12.5
39.2
31.1
36.5
40.2
93.0
79.3
90.0
96.1
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
146.3
121.4
144.6
122.1
..
155.0
182.8
148.8
215.4
201.8
243.3
197.6
123.8
108.3
148.8
120.7
52.0
54.7
55.3
58.5
56.3
51.7
48.5
47.0
55.3
52.6
10.9
14.1
11.4
10.2
11.7
37.1
37.9
38.6
38.6
39.0
99.7
103.7
105.0
106.5
104.0
87.6
90.8
90.8
92.6
93.0
96.4
101.3
102.1
107.7
107.9
84.8
90.0
90.6
92.7
93.4
130.6
134.6
139.5
145.0
142.8
160.4
170.7
168.0
167.3
173.9
215.5
218.6
228.0
229.6
226.1
127.7
131.6
138.5
144.0
138.7
111.7
108.6
104.2
100.9
97.5
96.6
98.3
95.6
58.0
59.5
60.0
64.0
62.7
60.1
55.9
56.5
50.9
48.8
56.5
52.7
59.8
56.8
59.2
49.6
11.6
11.2
12.7
10.8
12.1
12.5
12.2
13.0
38.7
39.2
40.4
42.7
41.9
40.7
39.9
39.7
105.4
106.2
106.3
108.9
109.3
104.9
102.1
100.1
95.2
96.5
96.5
99.7
99.4
98.1
94.1
92.9
111.3
112.1
115.5
119.5
114.8
111.8
105.8
106.9
93.7
94.3
95.3
98.6
95.0
95.1
94.0
92.9
148.4
145.8
147.2
150.0
144.6
145.5
138.7
143.9
162.9
163.0
159.7
154.8
148.3
155.1
161.2
167.9
228.6
224.2
223.8
228.6
220.5
223.4
216.5
224.7
143.2
140.1
143.3
145.9
141.6
138.8
132.3
135.8
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
19.8
21.5
31.6
22.6
11.0
11.9
20.9
12.7
10.5
11.8
17.0
10.3
3.3
3.5
3.1
3.0
7.3
7.9
15.5
8.9
20.2
21.8
35.3
22.7
17.5
18.1
37.2
20.1
20.6
22.3
39.7
24.4
19.3
20.2
31.2
22.1
30.1
33.0
46.3
34.6
36.9
37.6
52.9
40.4
45.1
49.4
77.3
52.9
26.8
29.8
46.3
32.9
2007 March
June
19.2
20.8
11.0
11.9
13.6
10.6
3.6
3.0
7.2
7.8
19.9
21.2
17.3
18.0
21.1
23.0
19.1
20.3
30.3
33.6
36.6
37.0
46.2
49.7
27.0
30.2
Outflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
104.8
91.5
100.7
112.2
43.9
41.8
49.8
47.4
54.5
47.7
57.9
46.7
14.2
9.4
15.1
9.3
40.2
39.1
45.6
40.9
102.9
98.6
115.8
104.9
78.5
73.3
90.5
85.4
77.2
71.7
84.8
81.4
89.5
78.4
94.8
87.9
115.6
104.4
128.1
113.0
..
187.0
232.4
202.1
181.7
166.0
204.1
184.6
94.7
88.0
102.5
98.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
106.3
107.9
105.3
114.8
111.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
54.4
54.2
49.0
52.0
54.5
53.2
53.8
12.2
12.3
11.8
12.6
12.4
43.5
45.6
44.5
44.5
43.7
109.8
115.8
114.0
117.5
115.8
91.9
97.6
98.2
100.0
97.9
86.2
91.9
94.3
97.4
97.3
95.1
98.1
101.0
103.7
100.9
115.5
118.7
121.1
124.8
125.0
206.3
207.6
213.4
221.7
217.9
190.4
195.8
198.9
205.7
209.4
103.9
108.0
109.8
112.4
110.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
111.6
110.8
120.4
119.3
126.0
121.5
118.2
110.4
53.3
52.1
51.5
49.7
48.1
49.2
50.0
49.0
54.9
53.3
50.4
48.4
46.4
45.1
44.7
44.1
12.5
11.9
11.1
11.1
11.7
10.2
12.7
11.1
43.8
42.9
42.6
41.3
40.1
39.4
39.3
39.1
114.9
111.3
110.4
107.5
104.1
104.1
103.1
103.5
97.0
95.7
95.6
94.6
93.0
92.2
92.6
94.2
96.4
94.9
95.6
96.9
96.0
97.0
96.7
98.9
101.8
101.5
101.6
102.7
101.7
100.7
98.6
100.9
125.8
124.6
127.1
130.1
127.4
128.3
123.7
127.0
228.3
231.5
244.2
262.5
262.6
260.2
242.8
246.7
208.7
210.5
216.4
220.2
211.1
208.1
201.0
201.4
110.7
110.7
110.7
111.0
108.0
108.4
106.9
107.9
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.0
25.1
38.3
24.0
9.8
11.2
16.6
11.5
9.7
10.3
13.5
10.6
2.1
2.1
4.3
2.6
7.8
8.8
13.8
8.8
20.8
23.1
36.2
23.4
18.5
21.6
32.5
21.8
19.6
22.5
34.0
22.8
20.3
22.1
36.0
22.5
25.5
26.3
46.0
29.2
52.7
53.4
80.8
59.7
40.6
43.1
70.6
47.2
21.4
22.8
38.6
25.1
2007 March
June
26.1
23.7
10.1
11.1
9.0
9.6
2.1
2.0
8.0
8.9
21.8
22.9
19.5
21.9
19.9
22.5
19.9
22.2
25.9
25.7
53.7
54.1
41.3
43.1
21.7
22.4
Balance
1976
1981
1986
1991
+ 0.6
+ 2.1
+14.9
– 16.4
+ 8.1
+ 2.7
+ 5.4
+ 4.0
– 4.1
– 2.3
– 14.1
+ 9.2
– 4.5
– 2.5
– 6.3
+ 3.2
–
–
–
–
1.0
8.0
9.1
0.7
– 9.8
–19.3
–25.8
– 8.8
– 0.3
– 5.0
– 11.9
– 0.4
+ 6.8
+ 4.9
+17.1
+ 8.1
– 13.8
– 11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
+ 30.7
+ 17.0
+ 16.5
+ 9.1
..
–32.0
–49.6
–53.3
+ 33.7
+ 35.8
+ 39.2
+ 13.0
+29.1
+20.3
+46.4
+21.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
–
+
+
–
–
2.9
0.2
5.8
3.8
0.1
+ 1.5
+ 1.6
+ 2.0
+ 4.1
+ 2.1
+
–
–
+
–
2.6
3.5
7.5
2.2
1.2
– 1.2
+ 1.8
– 0.4
– 2.4
– 0.8
–
–
–
–
–
6.4
7.7
5.9
5.9
4.8
–10.1
–12.1
– 9.0
–11.0
–11.8
–
–
–
–
–
4.4
6.8
7.4
7.3
4.9
+10.2
+ 9.4
+ 7.8
+10.3
+10.6
– 10.3
– 8.1
– 10.4
– 11.1
– 7.4
+ 15.1
+ 15.9
+ 18.3
+ 20.3
+ 17.7
–45.9
–36.9
–45.4
–54.5
–44.0
+ 25.1
+ 22.7
+ 29.1
+ 23.8
+ 16.7
+23.8
+23.6
+28.7
+31.6
+27.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
+ 0.1
– 2.2
– 16.3
–18.4
–28.5
–25.0
–19.9
–14.9
+ 4.7
+ 7.4
+ 8.5
+14.3
+14.6
+10.9
+ 5.9
+ 7.4
– 4.0
– 4.5
+ 6.1
+ 4.3
+13.4
+ 11.7
+ 14.5
+ 5.5
– 0.8
– 0.7
+ 1.6
– 0.3
+ 0.4
+ 2.3
– 0.5
+ 2.0
– 5.1
– 3.7
– 2.3
+ 1.4
+ 1.8
+ 1.3
+ 0.6
+ 0.6
– 9.5
– 5.1
– 4.1
+ 1.4
+ 5.2
+ 0.8
– 1.0
– 3.5
– 1.8
+ 0.8
+ 0.9
+ 5.0
+ 6.4
+ 5.9
+ 1.5
– 1.3
+14.9
+17.2
+19.9
+22.6
+18.7
+14.8
+ 9.2
+ 8.1
– 8.1
– 7.2
– 6.3
– 4.1
– 6.7
– 5.6
– 4.6
– 8.0
+ 22.6
+ 21.2
+ 20.1
+ 19.9
+ 17.2
+ 17.2
+ 15.1
+16.9
–65.4
–68.6
–84.5
–107.8
–114.3
–105.1
–81.5
– 78.8
+ 19.8
+ 13.8
+ 7.4
+ 8.4
+ 9.4
+ 15.3
+ 15.5
+ 23.3
+32.6
+29.3
+32.6
+34.8
+33.6
+30.5
+25.4
+27.9
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
– 3.2
– 3.6
– 6.7
– 1.4
+ 1.2
+ 0.7
+ 4.4
+ 1.2
+ 0.8
+ 1.4
+ 3.5
– 0.3
+ 1.2
+ 1.5
– 1.2
+ 0.5
– 0.4
– 0.9
+ 1.8
+ 0.1
– 0.5
– 1.4
– 0.9
– 0.7
– 0.9
– 3.5
+ 4.7
– 1.7
+ 0.9
– 0.2
+ 5.7
+ 1.6
– 1.0
– 1.9
– 4.8
– 0.4
+ 4.6
+ 6.6
+ 0.3
+ 5.4
–15.8
–15.8
–28.0
– 19.3
+ 4.5
+ 6.4
+ 6.7
+ 5.7
+ 5.5
+ 6.9
+ 7.7
+ 7.8
2007 March
June
– 6.9
– 2.9
+ 0.9
+ 0.9
+ 4.6
+ 1.0
+ 1.5
+ 1.0
– 0.8
– 1.1
– 1.9
– 1.7
– 2.2
– 4.0
+ 1.2
+ 0.5
– 0.8
– 1.9
+ 4.4
+ 7.9
– 17.1
– 17.1
+ 5.0
+ 6.6
+ 5.3
+ 7.8
Note:
Scotland
Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See Notes to tables for effects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
Office for National Statistics
60
South
West
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
Table 9.1
S u m m e r 2008
First marriages1: age and sex
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
All ages
Number
Rate2
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Per cent
aged
under 20
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.1
5.4
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
1986
1991
253.0
222.8
45.0
37.8
6.0
3.4
64.4
43.3
105.1
81.0
73.9
66.5
30.9
29.9
4.8
4.8
3.8
2.1
26.3
27.5
25.1
26.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.1
198.2
193.3
188.3
186.3
34.3
32.4
31.1
29.7
28.9
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
31.7
28.3
25.2
22.8
21.0
73.3
68.2
64.5
61.1
59.4
61.1
59.9
59.4
58.0
57.8
30.2
30.2
30.7
30.6
30.2
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
28.5
28.9
29.3
29.6
29.8
27.5
27.9
28.3
28.6
28.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
184.3
186.1
175.7
179.1
189.5
192.0
173.4
167.2
28.0
27.7
25.5
25.3
26.1
25.7
22.5
21.0
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.9
0.7
18.9
18.2
16.2
16.2
16.3
15.7
12.3
10.9
56.9
54.3
50.4
48.4
49.4
48.3
42.1
39.0
57.7
58.2
54.5
55.2
57.7
57.5
51.6
48.6
30.4
32.0
29.6
30.9
32.7
33.3
30.3
28.8
5.3
5.7
5.3
5.9
6.9
7.2
6.6
6.7
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.6
30.1
30.5
30.6
30.9
31.2
31.4
31.7
31.8
29.2
29.6
29.7
30.1
30.3
30.4
30.7
30.8
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.5
52.4
83.0
33.1
12.6
28.2
44.1
17.6
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.1
9.1
16.7
26.0
10.9
22.2
52.6
87.2
30.7
26.3
63.8
100.6
39.1
16.7
37.3
54.5
24.6
4.1
8.1
10.5
5.9
1.6
0.8
0.7
1.2
31.4
31.5
31.2
31.7
30.3
30.6
30.3
30.7
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
20.0
47.1
77.3
29.1
10.5
24.5
39.8
15.0
0.8
0.8
1.2
0.7
7.1
13.0
21.2
7.9
18.2
45.5
78.4
25.7
22.0
56.8
92.5
34.5
14.6
33.3
50.7
21.1
3.7
7.7
9.8
5.3
1.5
0.6
0.6
0.9
31.6
31.8
31.4
32.2
30.6
30.8
30.5
31.2
2006 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
16.6
45.9
77.5
27.2
8.5
23.2
38.7
13.6
0.5
0.7
1.1
0.6
5.3
11.3
19.7
7.3
14.1
43.3
75.1
23.2
18.1
53.8
90.9
31.1
12.3
31.9
50.8
19.9
3.6
7.8
10.4
5.2
1.1
0.6
0.5
0.8
32.2
32.0
31.6
32.2
30.9
30.8
30.6
31.1
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
4.6
4.3
4.8
4.0
2.8
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.1
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
1986
1991
256.8
224.8
55.6
46.7
24.1
14.0
102.4
73.0
108.7
90.6
67.1
62.7
28.6
28.1
2.7
2.8
13.9
7.9
24.1
25.5
23.1
24.6
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.3
198.6
192.7
188.5
187.4
41.6
39.3
37.3
35.6
34.7
9.6
9.0
8.0
7.4
7.2
56.4
50.8
45.7
42.5
39.9
84.5
80.5
77.2
74.1
72.6
58.9
57.1
57.2
56.1
56.1
27.7
27.6
27.8
27.2
26.5
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.7
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.7
25.7
26.0
26.4
26.7
27.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
185.3
187.7
177.5
180.7
191.2
194.3
176.5
170.7
33.5
33.2
30.6
30.3
31.2
30.8
27.0
25.3
6.7
6.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
4.9
3.2
2.8
36.7
35.2
31.9
30.9
31.3
30.1
24.2
21.7
70.8
68.7
64.3
62.9
64.0
62.9
56.4
52.8
56.0
57.2
53.2
54.3
57.4
58.2
53.5
50.6
26.5
27.5
25.5
26.8
28.4
28.8
26.2
24.9
3.5
3.9
3.7
4.3
5.2
5.6
5.2
5.6
4.4
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
2.5
2.2
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.7
28.9
29.1
29.5
29.7
27.3
27.5
27.7
27.9
28.1
28.3
28.5
28.6
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.2
53.0
84.5
33.6
14.8
33.8
53.3
21.2
4.5
4.8
6.3
4.1
15.8
32.2
53.0
19.3
26.0
69.4
116.1
39.9
25.7
65.1
99.5
42.3
14.8
32.2
45.4
22.7
3.5
6.4
7.5
4.8
6.4
3.0
2.5
4.1
28.9
29.3
28.9
29.6
28.0
28.4
28.1
28.7
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
20.0
48.4
78.9
29.3
12.4
29.7
47.9
17.8
3.0
3.1
4.2
2.5
12.0
26.2
44.0
14.3
22.4
61.9
106.3
34.4
23.6
59.4
93.0
37.4
12.8
29.3
42.5
20.1
3.2
6.3
7.1
4.2
5.1
2.1
1.8
2.9
29.5
29.4
29.6
30.0
28.4
28.6
28.3
29.1
2006 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
16.8
47.0
79.2
27.7
10.1
28.0
46.6
16.3
2.0
2.6
4.1
2.3
9.4
23.4
40.4
13.3
17.9
57.7
103.6
31.2
19.4
57.5
91.1
33.9
11.4
28.0
42.2
17.9
3.1
6.8
7.9
4.5
4.0
1.9
1.8
2.9
29.9
29.9
29.4
30.1
28.7
28.7
28.4
29.0
Year and quarter
1
2
3
p
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Mean
age3
(years)
Median
age3
(years)
Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
provisional
61
Office for National Statistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Remarriages1: age, sex, and previous marital status
Table 9.2
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Remarriages of divorced persons
Number
Rate2
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Per cent
aged
under 35
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
88.6
89.4
124.8
94.0
63.9
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
1986
1991
83.4
74.9
91.0
63.0
141.4
81.1
158.9
111.3
141.3
100.6
106.0
72.7
49.9
38.4
38.5
34.3
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.6
77.0
78.0
76.8
74.0
60.0
58.6
57.9
55.7
52.7
180.6
190.0
166.2
170.9
167.0
131.7
132.1
135.2
132.2
124.7
110.2
111.4
111.2
110.3
104.1
71.5
72.2
73.8
72.9
71.6
36.1
34.9
35.0
33.6
32.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
72.6
75.4
67.7
70.5
74.4
75.1
68.7
64.4
50.7
51.8
45.7
46.0
46.8
45.7
40.5
37.0
125.7
97.9
75.7
69.1
76.6
69.3
34.3
34.0
120.7
113.2
96.6
91.1
90.1
87.2
65.8
56.6
102.9
103.6
95.8
94.7
92.6
88.4
77.1
68.2
70.2
74.4
67.6
68.0
69.4
69.5
61.7
57.0
Year and quarter
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population at ages
All ages
Mean
age3
(years)
Median
age3
(years)
Remarriages of widowed
persons
Number
Rate4
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
39.1
40.3
37.7
39.0
11.6
9.0
16.7
12.5
31.5
30.3
28.2
27.0
24.8
41.1
41.3
41.7
42.0
42.4
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.5
40.8
8.4
7.8
7.7
7.4
6.9
11.5
10.8
10.6
10.3
9.6
31.2
32.6
28.5
29.9
31.6
31.1
28.6
26.9
23.3
20.8
19.7
17.8
16.0
14.5
12.7
11.1
42.7
43.2
43.5
44.1
44.6
44.9
45.5
46.0
41.2
41.8
42.0
42.6
43.3
43.6
44.2
44.8
6.6
6.5
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.4
9.3
9.1
8.0
8.2
8.6
8.3
7.9
7.5
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
20.8
28.2
15.5
25.8
51.1
68.4
37.6
67.5
59.9
86.2
63.6
58.1
86.4
126.2
77.6
50.6
94.8
138.8
69.2
37.4
77.2
108.1
55.2
18.0
35.5
44.3
26.4
15.4
13.7
15.0
14.3
45.2
45.1
44.4
45.3
43.7
43.8
43.1
44.0
1.0
1.7
2.0
1.2
5.7
9.7
10.8
6.8
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
9.5
19.4
26.1
13.7
22.7
45.8
61.1
32.1
39.4
42.4
30.6
24.9
48.8
72.0
91.4
50.8
43.4
88.7
117.5
58.4
32.5
68.2
98.0
47.7
16.5
32.9
41.3
23.3
13.6
12.8
12.5
12.1
45.8
45.6
45.0
46.0
44.6
44.5
43.8
44.6
1.0
1.7
1.9
1.2
5.2
9.3
10.6
6.5
2006
MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
8.3
18.2
25.6
12.2
19.5
42.0
58.5
27.8
27.1
30.6
41.6
36.6
33.5
58.2
86.2
48.1
35.0
75.4
111.7
49.9
27.7
63.6
94.3
41.8
14.9
31.2
40.6
20.5
11.3
10.6
11.3
11.2
46.8
46.2
45.5
46.3
45.5
45.1
44.3
45.0
0.8
1.7
1.9
1.0
4.6
9.3
10.5
5.6
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
35.6
37.8
49.3
40.9
29.0
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
1986
1991
80.0
73.4
68.7
50.3
190.9
111.9
155.9
118.1
111.6
89.7
75.6
55.3
24.4
20.9
51.2
47.4
36.0
37.1
34.7
35.7
11.2
8.6
3.8
2.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.9
76.9
78.9
77.1
73.3
47.3
45.7
45.6
43.3
40.1
167.3
166.5
183.5
188.5
175.0
121.0
118.8
120.6
119.4
114.5
91.4
91.9
93.6
90.8
87.1
54.4
54.8
56.0
54.6
52.2
20.6
19.8
20.4
19.6
18.4
44.4
42.8
40.8
39.0
37.1
37.9
38.1
38.6
38.9
39.3
36.3
36.6
37.1
37.4
37.9
7.9
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006P
72.0
74.1
66.1
69.2
73.1
72.9
65.9
61.0
38.4
38.5
33.5
34.0
34.9
33.8
29.8
27.0
155.0
137.8
104.6
109.0
116.8
111.3
74.3
67.2
107.0
107.5
96.9
99.3
100.5
94.3
75.5
37.6
84.8
85.6
79.3
80.3
82.5
81.6
71.0
65.9
52.3
54.2
48.5
50.6
52.0
52.1
47.0
43.3
17.8
18.4
15.9
16.8
18.3
18.0
16.8
15.7
34.7
32.0
30.7
28.2
26.1
24.0
21.2
19.6
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.9
41.5
41.9
42.6
43.1
38.3
38.9
39.2
39.7
40.3
40.8
41.6
42.1
6.2
6.2
5.6
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.4
5.2
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
2004
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.9
20.3
26.7
15.0
20.3
37.9
49.2
27.7
101.1
105.3
134.9
103.7
67.4
99.5
128.7
81.4
52.4
90.5
117.6
65.8
30.1
57.7
78.6
42.1
10.4
20.9
25.7
14.9
27.0
23.3
23.2
24.3
41.4
42.2
41.8
42.0
40.2
41.2
40.8
40.7
0.9
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.4
2.6
3.0
1.9
2005
March
June
Sept
Dec
9.6
18.3
24.5
13.5
17.5
33.2
43.9
24.3
74.6
78.8
84.9
59.1
57.4
77.6
107.1
59.7
42.6
76.4
107.5
57.0
26.8
51.4
71.4
38.2
9.6
19.6
23.9
13.9
23.6
20.2
21.2
20.8
42.2
43.0
42.4
42.8
41.2
42.0
41.5
41.6
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.2
1.3
2.3
2.9
1.8
2006
March P
June P
Sept P
Dec P
8.2
17.2
24.0
11.7
14.6
30.5
42.0
20.5
39.9
73.4
99.5
55.5
42.7
71.4
101.4
54.5
38.0
71.0
103.8
50.5
22.3
48.4
69.2
33.0
8.5
18.5
23.8
11.8
21.3
18.5
19.5
20.0
43.1
43.4
42.8
43.0
41.8
42.4
42.0
42.0
0.8
1.5
1.8
1.0
1.3
2.4
2.8
1.6
1
2
3
4
p
Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
provisional
Office for National Statistics
62
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132
S u m m e r 2008
Divorces: age and sex
Table 9.3
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Petitions
filed
Decrees made absolute
All
divorces
1st
marriage
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
2nd or
later
marriage
16 and
over
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and
over
Per cent
aged
under 35
Mean age
at divorce1
Median
age at
divorce1
Numbers
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
1986
1991
1996
49.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.0
129.8
125.8
25.9
29.0
31.3
13.0
13.6
13.9
31.4
26.1
28.1
31.4
32.4
32.6
25.2
28.6
30.2
18.0
20.2
22.2
5.2
5.6
6.4
45.6
42.7
37.5
37.8
38.6
39.8
36.2
37.0
38.1
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
117.3
116.0
115.1
29.4
29.2
29.4
13.1
13.0
13.0
26.0
25.8
24.1
30.4
30.7
29.7
28.7
28.4
28.4
21.1
21.5
21.9
6.1
6.1
6.3
35.9
34.3
32.1
40.2
40.4
40.9
38.4
38.7
39.2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
..
..
..
..
..
..
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
153.4
141.8
132.6
112.1
114.3
116.9
121.4
121.1
111.7
104.3
29.1
29.5
30.8
32.0
32.3
30.1
28.2
12.7
13.0
13.4
14.0
14.1
13.1
12.4
22.3
20.3
23.2
24.6
25.0
23.9
22.0
27.9
27.9
29.1
30.3
30.3
28.1
26.9
27.4
28.3
29.2
30.0
30.0
27.1
25.7
21.9
22.8
23.7
25.2
25.3
23.5
22.2
6.3
6.5
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.2
29.9
28.4
26.7
24.7
23.3
21.8
20.6
41.3
41.5
41.9
42.3
42.7
43.1
43.4
39.7
40.0
40.4
40.9
41.4
42.0
42.4
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
39.5
38.1
39.0
36.9
31.2
30.1
30.9
29.0
8.3
7.9
8.1
7.9
14.6
14.1
14.3
13.5
24.9
25.2
25.3
24.8
31.6
29.7
30.6
29.4
32.0
29.3
30.2
28.4
26.5
25.4
25.6
23.9
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.5
23.8
22.9
23.2
23.3
42.5
42.7
42.7
42.7
41.2
41.5
41.5
41.5
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
28.5
28.7
28.0
26.4
7.7
7.8
7.6
7.0
13.6
13.6
13.1
12.3
25.7
24.5
23.4
21.8
29.0
28.6
27.9
26.8
28.8
27.7
27.4
24.6
24.5
24.1
23.5
21.9
7.6
7.8
7.4
7.1
22.2
21.5
21.9
21.4
43.0
43.2
43.0
43.1
41.8
42.1
41.9
42.1
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
34.3
32.9
32.9
32.4
27.0
25.8
26.0
25.4
7.3
7.1
6.9
7.0
13.0
12.3
12.2
12.0
24.7
22.1
21.4
19.7
28.1
26.8
26.2
26.5
27.5
25.5
25.1
24.8
23.5
22.0
22.0
21.3
7.4
7.2
7.1
7.1
20.9
20.6
20.4
20.6
43.3
43.4
43.4
43.5
42.2
42.4
42.3
42.5
P
20072 March
JunePP
Sept
..
..
..
34.7
33.1
33.0
27.4
26.2
26.1
7.3
6.9
6.9
13.1
12.4
12.2
23.4
22.0
22.9
29.2
27.6
27.6
26.5
24.2
24.1
23.3
22.1
21.7
7.8
7.4
7.3
20.4
19.9
20.2
43.6
43.6
43.5
42.6
42.6
42.6
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
1986
1991
1996
130.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.8
130.9
126.9
25.1
27.8
30.2
12.8
13.4
13.7
30.7
28.7
30.7
28.6
30.7
33.2
22.0
25.0
27.6
15.8
17.3
19.3
4.1
4.5
5.1
55.0
52.7
47.7
35.3
36.0
37.3
33.6
34.3
35.6
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
118.3
116.8
115.4
28.4
28.5
29.1
12.9
12.9
12.9
28.0
28.5
25.6
31.3
31.4
30.6
26.3
26.6
26.9
18.5
18.9
19.5
4.9
4.9
5.1
45.9
44.3
41.7
37.7
37.9
38.4
36.0
36.3
36.9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
153.4
141.8
132.6
112.6
114.6
117.5
121.9
121.8
112.0
104.8
28.5
29.2
30.2
31.6
31.6
29.7
27.7
12.6
12.9
13.3
14.0
14.0
13.0
12.3
24.5
23.9
26.8
28.2
27.8
26.5
24.4
29.0
29.2
30.3
31.4
31.7
28.5
28.0
26.6
27.6
28.3
29.1
28.9
26.1
24.4
19.4
20.5
21.6
23.2
23.6
22.2
21.1
5.2
5.4
5.7
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.0
39.6
37.8
35.9
33.7
31.9
30.0
28.8
38.8
39.1
39.4
39.8
40.2
40.6
40.9
37.3
37.7
38.2
38.7
39.2
39.8
40.1
2004 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
39.5
38.1
39.0
36.9
31.4
30.2
30.9
29.0
8.1
7.8
8.1
7.9
14.5
14.0
14.2
13.4
28.7
28.0
27.8
26.8
33.3
30.8
31.9
30.8
30.8
28.6
29.0
27.1
24.5
23.6
23.8
22.4
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.3
32.6
31.5
31.7
31.7
40.0
40.3
40.3
40.3
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.3
2005 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
36.2
36.5
35.6
33.4
28.6
28.8
28.1
26.5
7.6
7.7
7.5
6.9
13.5
13.4
13.0
12.2
27.2
27.6
27.0
24.4
29.5
28.2
28.7
27.6
27.4
27.3
26.2
23.6
23.1
22.9
22.2
20.8
6.4
6.5
6.2
5.9
30.2
29.8
30.2
29.7
40.6
40.7
40.6
40.6
39.6
39.9
39.7
39.8
2006 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
34.3
32.9
32.9
32.4
27.2
25.9
26.1
25.5
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.8
12.9
12.2
12.1
11.9
26.5
23.5
22.8
24.9
29.1
27.8
27.4
27.7
26.1
23.9
24.4
23.4
22.3
21.2
20.6
20.2
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.9
29.0
28.3
28.8
28.9
40.8
40.9
40.9
40.9
40.0
40.1
40.1
40.2
P
20072 March
JunePP
Sept
..
..
..
34.7
33.1
33.0
27.5
26.2
26.3
7.2
6.9
6.7
13.0
12.3
12.1
27.1
22.7
23.7
29.4
28.4
27.8
25.3
23.2
23.3
22.0
20.9
20.6
6.6
6.3
6.1
28.4
27.8
28.2
41.1
41.2
41.1
40.4
40.5
40.4
1
2
p
The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
Rates for 2007 are based on 2006 marital status estimates.
provisional.
Divorce petitions entered by year and quarter 1995–2007
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands)
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
45.6
35.6
43.0
41.4
39.3
45.4
44.5
43.7
40.3
39.5
37.6
42.6
45.3
44.0
42.1
41.3
39.5
42.9
43.4
40.9
41.0
40.5
41.8
42.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
45.4
46.3
45.5
37.9
38.8
38.4
44.3
42.2
41.1
39.5
36.8
35.8
45.4
43.6
42.1
38.5
37.6
36.2
42.6
41.5
39.1
36.1
35.8
..
Notes: Data supplied by Ministry of Justice (4 December 2007)
The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971; the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
Figures include petitions for nullity
63
Office for National Statistics
Popula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Notes to tables
Time Series
For most tables, years start at 1971 and then
continue at five-year intervals until 1991.
Individual years are shown thereafter.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom comprises England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Channel
Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the
United Kingdom.
Population
The estimated and projected resident population
of an area includes all people who usually live
there, whatever their nationality. Members of HM
and US Armed Forces in the United Kingdom are
included on a residential basis wherever possible.
HM Forces stationed outside the United Kingdom
are not included. Students are taken to be resident
at their term-time addresses.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to the
number of births occurring in a period; for
Scotland and Northern Ireland, figures relate to
births registered in a period. By law, births must be
registered within 42 days in England and Wales,
within 21 days in Scotland, and within 42 days in
Northern Ireland. In England and Wales, where a
birth is registered later than the legal time period,
and too late to be included in the count for the year
of occurrence, it will be included in the count for
the following year.
Perinatal mortality
In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28
completed weeks of gestation or more, to one
born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation
or more.
Period expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are
based use death rates for the given period to
describe mortality levels for each year. Each
individual year shown is based on a three-year
period, so that for instance 1986 represents
1985–87. More details can be found at
www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.
asp?vlnk=14459
Deaths
Figures for England and Wales represent the
numbers of deaths registered in each year up to
1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each
year from 1993 to 2005, 2006 and provisional
2007 figures are registrations. Figures for both
Scotland and Northern Ireland represent the
number of deaths registered in each year.
Age-standardised mortality
Directly age-standardised rates make allowances for
changes in the age structure of the population. The
age-standardised rate for a particular condition is that
which would have occurred if the observed age-specific
rates for the condition had applied in a given standard
population. Table 2.2 uses the European Standard
Population. This is a hypothetical population standard
which is the same for both males and females allowing
standardised rates to be compared for each sex, and
between males and females.
International Migration
The UN recommends the following definition of an
international long-term migrant.
An international long-term migrant is defined as a
person who moves to a country other than that of
his or her usual residence for a period of at least a
year (12 months), so that the country of destination
effectively becomes his or her new country of
usual residence.
Office for Na tio n a l S ta tis t ic s
64
Figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are compiled from
several main sources of migration data:
l
The richest source of information on international
migrants comes from the International Passenger
Survey (IPS), which is a sample survey of
passengers arriving at, and departing from, the
main United Kingdom air and sea ports and
Channel Tunnel. This survey provides migration
estimates based on respondents’ intended length
of stay in the UK or abroad and excludes most
persons seeking asylum and some dependents of
such asylum seekers.
l
Two adjustments are made to account for people
who do not realise their intended length of stay
on arrival. First, visitor data from the IPS are
used to estimate ‘visitor switchers’: those people
who initially come to or leave the UK for a
short period but subsequently stay for a year or
longer. (For years before 2001, estimates of nonEuropean Economic Area (non-EEA) national
visitor switcher inflows are made from the Home
Office database of after-entry applications to
remain in the UK). Second, people who intend to
be migrants, but who in reality stay in the UK or
abroad for less than a year (‘migrant switchers’),
are estimated from IPS migrant data.
l
Home Office data on asylum seekers and their
dependents.
l
Estimates of migration between the UK and
the Irish Republic estimated using information
from the Irish Quarterly National Household
Survey and the National Health Service
Central Register, agreed between the Irish
Central Statistics Office and the ONS.
Estimates for 1999-2005 have been revised
to take account of recent improvements in the
methodology used to estimate migration. These
improvements were first published for 2006
data released in November 2007. More detail is
provided in Appendix B of International Migration
2006 – MN Series no. 33.
For years prior to 1991, the figures in Tables
7.1–7.3 are based only on data from the IPS. After
taking into account of those groups of migrants
known not to be covered by the IPS, it is estimated
that the adjustment needed to net migration ranges
from about ten thousand in 1981 to just over
twenty thousand in 1986. From 1991, the figures in
Tables 7.1–7.3 are based on data from all sources
and represent Total International Migration.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and South Africa;
New Commonwealth is defined as all other
Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Internal Migration
Figures in Table 8.1 are based on the movement
of NHS doctors’ patients between former Health
Authorities (HAs) in England and Wales, and Area
Health Boards in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Yearly and quarterly figures have been adjusted to
take account of differences in recorded crossborder flows between England and Wales, Scotland
and Northern Ireland.
Prior to reorganisation of health authority
databases from Family Health Service Authorities
(FHSAs) to HAs some database boundaries
were realigned. This included in a few cases
transferring patients between databases to fit the
new boundaries. For the most part, this movement
was done outside the NHSCR system and therefore
had no effect on migration data. However a small
number were transferred within the system. As
migration estimates derived from NHSCR are
the product of an administrative system (when
patients re-register with GPs) this had the effect
of generating small numbers of spurious migrants
where no actual change of address had taken place.
We have been advised of adjustments required to
data by the Department of Health and these have
been made to migration data.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport
was computerised in early 1991, prior to which
a three month time lag was assumed between a
person moving and their re-registration with an
NHS doctor being processed onto the NHSCR.
Since computerisation, estimates of internal
migration are based on the date of acceptance
of the new patient by the HA (not previously
available), and a one month time lag assumed.
It has been established that NHSCR data underreport the migration of males aged between 16 and
36. Currently, however, there are no suitable sources
of data available to enable adjustments or revisions
to be made to the estimates. Further research is
planned on this topic and new data sources may
become available in the future. However, for the
present time, historical estimates will not be revised
and future estimates will not be adjusted.
Marriages and divorces
Marriages are tabulated according to date of
solemnisation. Divorces are tabulated according
to date of decree absolute. In Scotland a small
number of late divorces from previous years are
added to the current year. The term ‘divorces’
includes decrees of nullity. The fact that a marriage
or divorce has taken place in England, Wales,
Scotland or Northern Ireland does not mean either
of the parties is resident there.
Civil Partnerships
The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force on
5 December 2005 in the UK, the first day couples
could give notice of their intention to form a
civil partnership. The first day that couples could
normally form a partnership was 19 December 2005
in Northern Ireland, 20 December 2005 in Scotland
and 21 December 2005 in England and Wales.
Civil partnerships are tabulated according to date
of formation and area of occurrence. The fact that a
civil partnership has taken place in England, Wales,
Scotland or Northern Ireland does not necessarily
mean either of the parties is resident there.
EU Enlargement
The coverage of European countries in Table 1.1
has been updated to reflect the enlargement of the
EU to 27 member countries (EU27). On 1 May
2004, 10 new member countries were added:
Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
On 1 January 2007 a further 2 countries were
added: Bulgaria and Romania.
Sources
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland have
been provided by the General Register Office for
Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency respectively. The International
Passenger Survey (Tables 7.1–7.3) is conducted
by the Surveys and Administrative Sources
Directorate of ONS.
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently; constituent
parts may not add to totals. Generally numbers
and rates per 1,000 population are rounded to one
decimal place (e.g. 123.4); where appropriate, for
small figures (below 10.0), two decimal places are
given (e.g. 7.62). Figures which are provisional
or estimated are given in less detail (e.g. 123 or
7.6 respectively) if their reliability does not justify
giving the standard amount of detail. Where figures
need to be treated with particular caution, an
explanation is given as a footnote.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may be
provisional and will be updated in future issues
when later information becomes available. Where
figures are not yet available, cells are left blank.
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132 S u m m e r 2 0 0 8
Report:
Marriages in England and
Wales, 2006
Key observations
• In 2006, England and Wales observed the lowest marriage rates since
they were first calculated in 1862. This was due to an increase in the
unmarried population and a decrease in the number of marriages in
2006. The marriage rate for men was 22.8 men marrying per 1,000
unmarried men aged 16 and over, compared with 24.5 in 2005 and
33.6 in 1996. The marriage rate for women in 2006 was 20.5 women
marrying per 1,000 unmarried women aged 16 and over, compared
with 21.9 in 2005 and 28.5 in 1996. (see Figure 1).
• There were 236,980 marriages in England and Wales in 2006, a
decrease of 4 per cent compared with 2005. This is the lowest annual
number of marriages since 1895 when there were 228,204 marriages.
Despite an increase between 2002 and 2004, the decrease in
marriages observed in 2006 continues the declining long-term trend
observed in recent decades.
• The mean age at marriage in England and Wales increased for both
men and women compared with 2005. The mean age at marriage for
men increased to 36.4 years and 33.7 years for women. In 2005, these
figures were 36.2 years and 33.5 years respectively.
• In 2006, 144,120 marriages in England and Wales were the first for both
parties. In 2005, this figure was 148,405. The number of marriages in
England and Wales that were the first for both partners peaked in 1940 at
426,100 when 91 per cent of all marriages were first marriages for both
partners. Marriages that were the first for both parties accounted for 61
per cent of all marriages in 2006. This is 1 per cent more than in 2005.
Remarriages for both parties accounted for 18 per cent of all marriages in
2006. This is 1 per cent less than in 2005.
• In 2006, 95,300 ceremonies took place in approved premises
accounting for 40 per cent of all marriages. In 2005, 36 per cent of
marriages took place in approved premises; in 1996, this proportion
was 5 per cent.
• The number of religious ceremonies decreased by 7 per cent
compared with 2005 to 79,490. Religious marriages accounted for 34
per cent of all marriages in 2006. The number of religious marriages
has almost halved since 1991. In the same period the overall number
of marriages decreased by 23 per cent. For the second consecutive
year, there were fewer religious ceremonies than ceremonies in
approved premises.
Figure 1
Marriages and General Marriage Rate (GMR) for
males and females, 1980–2006
England and Wales
70
400
60
300
Number of marriages
50
250
40
200
Male GMR
30
150
Female GMR
20
100
10
50
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: Office for National Statistics FM2 Table 2.1 & 2.2
65
Office for N a t i o n a l S t atistics
0
Number of marriages (thousands)
• Since 1986, the mean age at first marriage has increased by
approximately six years for both men and women. In 2006, the mean
age at marriage for never-married men was 31.8 years compared
with 26.3 years in 1986. For never-married women, the mean age at
marriage was 29.7 years in 2006 compared with 24.1 years in 1986.
• The number of civil ceremonies in 2006 decreased by 3 per cent to
157,490 compared with 2005. Civil ceremonies represented 66 per
cent of all ceremonies in 2006. This follows a fall in the proportion of
civil marriages in 2005 when civil ceremonies represented 65 per cent
of all ceremonies, but reflects an increasing trend since 1990 when 47
per cent of all marriages were conducted in a civil ceremony. Since
1992, there have been more civil ceremonies in England and Wales
than religious ceremonies (see Figure 2).
Marriages per 1,000 unmarried
males/females aged 16 & over
This report provides provisional summary statistics of marriages taking
place in England and Wales during 2006 and compares them with figures
for previous years. Final details of marriages in 2006 will be released in
spring 2009.
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2 Figure 2
S um m e r 2008
Marriages by type of ceremony as a percentage of
all marriages, 1991–2006
England and Wales
80
Percentage of all marriages
Marriage rates were first calculated in 1862. Rates from this year
onwards are shown in Table 2b of the summary tables at the following
link: www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14275.
All civil marriages
70
of marriages in England and Wales increased by approximately 3,100
records between the provisional first release of figures and the finalised
statistics.
60
Measures included in the Asylum and Immigration (Treatment of
Claimants etc) Act 2004 were introduced on 1 February 2005 to prevent
‘sham marriages’. These measures required individuals who are non
EEA nationals subject to immigration control to give notice of their
marriage at one of 76 designated Register Offices. These restrictions do
not apply to marriages by Registrar General’s Licence or ecclesiastical
preliminaries (banns or licence).
Other civil marriages
50
40
All religious marriages
30
20
Approved premises
10
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Office for National Statistics FM2 Table 3.32
Background notes
These figures relate only to marriages solemnised in England and
Wales. Marriages of England and Wales residents that take place outside
England and Wales are not accounted for in this report.
Approved premises are buildings such as hotels and stately homes
licensed by local authorities (LAs) under the Marriage Act 1994, for
the solemnisation of civil marriages. In addition, some LAs have made
accommodation available for civil marriage as approved premises
in place of register offices. This provision for marriages in approved
premises came into effect on 1 April 1995.
The 2006 figures are rounded and provisional.
The population estimates by marital status used to calculate rates in
this report are the latest available. Further information on population
estimates can be found on the National Statistics website at
www.statistics.gov.uk/popest.
Annual marriage statistics are finalised when complete returns have
been received from all register offices and clergy. In 2005 the number
The mean ages presented in this report are not standardised and therefore
take no account of the structure of the population by age or marital status.
Table 1
Summary of marriages, 1981, 1991, 1996, 2001–2006
England and Wales
Total marriages
Numbers
1981
1991
1996
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20061P
351,973
306,756
278,975
249,227
255,596
270,109
273,069
247,805
236,980
Quarterly totals
March
63,708
41,488
36,477
28,836
31,893
34,025
35,022
30,395
25,770
June
98,403
89,538
80,688
70,876
71,124
75,152
74,980
68,178
65,730
September
119,758
121,508
114,018
105,331
105,671
111,869
113,171
105,277
105,040
December
70,104
54,222
47,792
44,184
46,908
49,063
49,896
43,955
40,440
144,120
Previous marital status
First marriage for both
227,713
192,238
160,680
148,642
151,014
160,283
163,007
148,405
First marriage for one
67,048
63,159
64,653
55,943
57,768
60,074
60,290
53,108
49,680
Remarriage for both
57,212
51,359
53,642
44,642
46,814
49,752
49,772
46,292
43,190
172,514
151,333
164,158
160,238
169,210
183,124
184,913
162,169
157,490
-
-
15,210
50,149
61,749
73,784
85,154
90,239
95,300
179,459
155,423
114,817
88,989
86,386
86,985
88,156
85,636
79,490
Manner of solemnisation
Civil ceremonies
of which:
in Approved Premises
Religious ceremonies
of which:
118,435
102,840
75,147
60,878
58,980
60,385
62,006
61,155
57,070
Roman Catholic
Church of England and Church in Wales
26,097
19,551
13,989
10,518
10,044
9,858
9,850
9,599
8,950
Nonconformist2
29,017
25,472
18,617
11,163
10,623
9,942
9,361
8,555
7,490
Other Christian bodies3
4,422
5,597
4,988
4,047
4,221
4,246
4,217
3,760
3,540
Other4
1,488
1,963
2,076
2,383
2,518
2,554
2,722
2,567
2,440
Notes: Final marriage figures are produced when complete returns have been received from all register offices and clergy.
In 2005 final figures increased by approximately 3,100 records from the provisional first release of figures in February 2007
1 Figures for 2006 may not add precisely due to rounding.
2 In this table Nonconformist denominations are taken as the following: Methodist, Calvanistic Methodist, United Reformed Church, Congregationalist and Baptist.
3 ‘Other Christian bodies’ include Presbyterian, Society of Friends (Quakers), Salvation Army, Brethren and Jehovah's Witnesses
4 ‘Other’ include Jews, Muslim and Sikh
p Figures for 2006 are provisional.
Source: Office for National Statistics FM2 Tables 2.1, 3.1, 3.32, 3.33
O f f ic e f or N a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c s 66
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132 S u m m e r 2 0 0 8
Table 2
Marriage rates1, 1996–2006
England and Wales
Rate per thousand
Year of marriage
All marriages
First marriages
Remarriages
Women marrying Number marrying per 1,000 single population
Men marrying per
Persons marrying per
aged 16 and over
1,000 population of 1,000 unmarried men per 1,000 unmarried
women aged 16 and
aged 16 and over
all ages
Men
Women
over
Number marrying per 1,000 widowed or
divorced population
Men
Women
1996
10.9
33.6
28.5
31.1
37.3
41.2
18.7
1997
10.6
32.3
27.5
29.7
35.6
39.9
18.1
1998
10.3
31.1
26.6
28.9
34.7
37.9
17.2
1999
10.1
30.1
25.8
28.0
33.5
36.6
16.7
2000
10.3
30.1
25.9
27.7
33.2
37.4
17.1
2001
9.5
27.4
23.7
25.5
30.6
33.2
15.2
2002
9.7
27.3
23.9
25.3
30.3
33.8
15.8
2003
10.2
28.2
24.8
26.1
31.2
34.8
16.6
2004
10.3
27.7
24.6
25.7
30.8
34.3
16.5
2005
9.3
24.5
21.9
22.5
27.0
30.8
14.8
2006P
8.8
22.8
20.5
21.0
25.3
28.4
13.8
Notes: 'Unmarried' = single, divorced, widowed, 'Single' = never-married
1 The population estimates by marital status used to calculate rates are the latest figures available
p Figures for 2006 are provisional.
Source: Office for National Statistics FM2 Table 2.2
Table 3
Previous marital status of person marrying, 1981, 1991, 2001-2006
England and Wales
Year of marriage
Men
Women
Total
Number
1981
1991
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 1P
Single women
Per cent
Number
Divorced women
Per cent
Number
Widows
Per cent
Number
Per cent
Total
351,973
100.0
263,368
74.8
75,147
21.4
13,458
3.8
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
259,106
79,099
13,768
73.6
22.5
3.9
227,713
33,209
2,446
64.7
9.4
0.7
29,078
41,352
4,717
8.3
11.7
1.3
2,315
4,538
6,605
0.7
1.3
1.9
Total
306,756
100.0
224,812
73.3
73,408
23.9
8,536
2.8
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
222,823
74,860
9,073
72.6
24.4
3.0
192,238
31,085
1,489
62.7
10.1
0.5
29,061
40,551
3,796
9.5
13.2
1.2
1,524
3,224
3,788
0.5
1.1
1.2
Total
249,227
100.0
177,506
71.2
66,120
26.5
5,601
2.2
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
175,721
67,678
5,828
70.5
27.2
2.3
148,642
27,874
990
59.6
11.2
0.4
25,954
37,268
2,898
10.4
15.0
1.2
1,125
2,536
1,940
0.5
1.0
0.8
Total
255,596
100.0
180,675
70.7
69,234
27.1
5,687
2.2
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
179,121
70,506
5,969
70.1
27.6
2.3
151,014
28,632
1,029
59.1
11.2
0.4
26,891
39,271
3,072
10.5
15.4
1.2
1,216
2,603
1,868
0.5
1.0
0.7
Total
270,109
100.0
191,170
70.8
73,071
27.1
5,868
2.2
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
189,470
74,397
6,242
70.1
27.5
2.3
160,283
29,743
1,144
59.3
11.0
0.4
27,951
41,882
3,238
10.3
15.5
1.2
1,236
2,772
1,860
0.5
1.0
0.7
Total
273,069
100.0
194,348
71.2
72,875
26.7
5,846
2.1
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
191,956
75,129
5,984
70.3
27.5
2.2
163,007
30,213
1,128
59.7
11.1
0.4
27,708
42,109
3,058
10.1
15.4
1.1
1,241
2,807
1,798
0.5
1.0
0.7
Total
247,805
100.0
176,505
71.2
65,915
26.6
5,385
2.2
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
173,413
68,672
5,720
70.0
27.7
2.3
148,405
27,129
971
59.9
10.9
0.4
24,010
38,856
3,049
9.7
15.7
1.2
998
2,687
1,700
0.4
1.1
0.7
Total
236,980
100.0
170,710
72.0
61,100
25.8
5,170
2.2
Single men
Divorced men
Widowers
167,200
64,400
5,380
70.6
27.2
2.3
144,120
25,720
870
60.8
10.9
0.4
22,140
36,140
2,820
9.3
15.3
1.2
950
2,530
1,700
0.4
1.1
0.7
Notes: Single men and single women are those who have never been married.
1 Figures for 2006 may not add precisely due to rounding.
p Figures for 2006 are provisional.
Source: Office for National Statistics FM2 Tables 3.18 and 3.19
67
Office for N a t i o n a l S t atistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2 Table 4
S um m e r 2008
Marriages by previous marital status and manner of solemnisation, 1991, 2001–2006
England and Wales
Year of marriage
Total marriages
Civil marriages
1991
Total marriages
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
2001
Total marriages
249,227
100.0
160,238
64.3
88,989
35.7
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
148,642
55,943
44,642
59.6
22.4
17.9
77,048
44,601
38,589
30.9
17.9
15.5
71,594
11,342
6,053
28.7
4.6
2.4
Total marriages
255,596
100.0
169,210
66.2
86,386
33.8
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
151,014
57,768
46,814
59.1
22.6
18.3
82,564
46,207
40,439
32.3
18.1
15.8
68,450
11,561
6,375
26.8
4.5
2.5
Total marriages
270,109
100.0
183,124
67.8
86,985
32.2
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
160,283
60,074
49,752
59.3
22.2
18.4
92,086
48,077
42,961
34.1
17.8
15.9
68,197
11,997
6,791
25.2
4.4
2.5
Total marriages
273,069
100.0
184,913
67.7
88,156
32.3
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
163,007
60,290
49,772
59.7
22.1
18.2
94,203
47,820
42,890
34.5
17.5
15.7
68,804
12,470
6,882
25.2
4.6
2.5
Total marriages
247,805
100.0
162,169
65.4
85,636
34.6
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
148,405
53,108
46,292
59.9
21.4
18.7
80,941
41,631
39,597
32.7
16.8
16.0
67,464
11,477
6,695
27.2
4.6
2.7
Total marriages
236,980
100.0
157,490
66.5
79,490
33.5
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
144,120
49,680
43,190
60.8
21.0
18.2
80,710
39,370
37,410
34.1
16.6
15.8
63,410
10,310
5,780
26.8
4.4
2.4
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 1 P
1 Figures for 2006 may not add precisely due to rounding.
p Figures for 2006 are provisional.
Source: Office for National Statistics FM2 Tables 3.31
O f f ic e f or N a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c s 68
Per cent
100.0
62.7
20.6
16.7
Number
151,333
64,614
44,643
42,076
Religious marriages
Number
306,756
192,238
63,159
51,359
Per cent
49.3
21.1
14.6
13.7
Number
155,423
127,624
18,516
9,283
Per cent
50.7
41.6
6.0
3.0
Po p u l at i o n Tr e n d s 132 S u m m e r 2 0 0 8
Table 5
Age at marriage by sex and previous marital status, 1991, 2001–2006
England and Wales
Year
Numbers
Age
Men
Women
1991
Total
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80 and over
Mean age 1
Median age 1
Total
306,756
4,632
75,331
100,891
50,403
25,132
17,881
11,503
7,426
4,938
3,414
2,463
1,433
876
433
31.6
28.4
Single men
222,823
4,630
74,378
91,675
34,560
10,252
3,998
1,520
778
429
302
185
70
32
14
27.5
26.5
Divorced
74,860
2
935
9,113
15,626
14,537
13,350
9,291
5,746
3,352
1,719
761
298
85
45
40.3
39.0
Widowers
9,073
–
18
103
217
343
533
692
902
1,157
1,393
1,517
1,065
759
374
60.5
62.0
Total
306,756
17,738
107,028
87,244
38,425
19,591
14,164
9,587
5,304
2,679
2,052
1,455
858
432
199
29.1
26.3
Single women
224,812
17,704
103,689
72,523
21,000
5,785
2,075
911
447
255
173
129
63
38
20
25.5
24.6
Divorced
73,408
31
3,277
14,481
16,992
13,272
11,272
7,634
3,850
1,525
626
272
123
37
16
37.1
35.7
Widows
8,536
3
62
240
433
534
817
1,042
1,007
899
1,253
1,054
672
357
163
55.1
55.6
2001
Total
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80 and over
Mean age 1
Median age 1
249,227
1,945
24,651
67,934
61,409
36,397
20,475
12,782
10,167
5,860
3,420
1,988
1,139
680
380
34.8
32.1
175,721
1,931
24,379
65,202
50,916
21,362
7,161
2,527
1,218
497
262
127
86
38
15
30.6
29.7
67,678
14
269
2,700
10,382
14,795
13,010
9,835
8,224
4,544
2,300
1,042
394
134
35
43.5
42.0
5,828
–
3
32
111
240
304
420
725
819
858
819
659
508
330
61.0
61.6
249,227
6,896
45,317
73,799
51,865
29,144
16,528
10,523
7,548
3,552
1,991
1,027
551
330
156
32.2
29.9
177,506
6,841
44,396
68,113
37,836
13,451
4,226
1,438
657
287
123
74
31
26
7
28.4
27.7
66,120
55
903
5,591
13,759
15,260
11,790
8,419
6,108
2,593
1,090
372
124
41
15
40.4
39.2
5,601
–
18
95
270
433
512
666
783
672
778
581
396
263
134
55.2
55.1
2002
Total
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80 and over
Mean age 1
Median age 1
255,596
1,820
25,093
64,619
62,998
38,731
22,465
13,859
10,477
7,179
3,869
2,184
1,214
683
405
35.3
32.6
179,121
1,807
24,846
62,229
52,963
23,398
8,422
2,936
1,348
569
315
161
71
34
22
30.9
30.1
70,506
13
246
2,361
9,928
15,105
13,734
10,482
8,425
5,688
2,665
1,177
461
160
61
44.1
42.6
5,969
–
1
29
107
228
309
441
704
922
889
846
682
489
322
61.0
61.4
255,596
6,806
45,078
71,540
53,970
31,570
18,414
11,614
7,921
4,357
2,125
1,135
593
310
163
32.6
30.3
180,675
6,745
44,127
66,278
40,307
15,093
4,996
1,740
792
319
149
71
34
16
8
28.7
27.9
69,234
59
928
5,168
13,383
16,057
12,853
9,211
6,357
3,317
1,224
465
143
51
18
40.9
39.7
5,687
2
23
94
280
420
565
663
772
721
752
599
416
243
137
55.0
55.1
2003
Total
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80 and over
Mean age 1
Median age 1
270,109
1,837
25,850
65,568
66,060
41,191
25,173
15,471
11,314
8,314
4,366
2,463
1,355
682
465
35.6
32.9
189,470
1,825
25,570
63,301
56,505
25,792
9,851
3,494
1,609
823
368
186
90
32
24
31.2
30.3
74,397
12
275
2,217
9,420
15,159
14,987
11,512
9,036
6,488
3,057
1,412
560
182
80
44.6
43.3
6,242
–
5
50
135
240
335
465
669
1,003
941
865
705
468
361
60.7
61.1
270,109
6,987
46,850
72,790
57,348
33,668
20,435
13,078
8,780
5,214
2,560
1,277
660
301
161
32.9
30.6
191,170
6,929
45,845
67,775
43,940
16,934
5,908
2,148
900
455
170
78
43
30
15
28.9
28.1
73,071
57
982
4,918
13,131
16,324
13,991
10,211
7,101
3,928
1,556
580
212
54
26
41.5
40.3
5,868
1
23
97
277
410
536
719
779
831
834
619
405
217
120
55.0
55.5
69
Office for N a t i o n a l S t atistics
Pop ula t io n Tr e nds 1 3 2 Table 5
continued
England and Wales
Year
S um m e r 2008
Age at marriage by sex and previous marital status, 1991, 2001–2006
Numbers
Age
Men
Women
2004
Total
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80 and over
Mean age 1
Median age 1
Total
273,069
1,737
25,939
64,701
65,510
42,618
26,746
16,489
11,341
8,540
4,421
2,495
1,396
687
449
35.8
33.2
Single men
191,956
1,725
25,690
62,598
56,827
27,137
10,859
3,901
1,662
861
357
196
88
42
13
31.4
30.4
Divorced
75,129
12
244
2,069
8,594
15,257
15,564
12,173
9,035
6,757
3,157
1,421
579
185
82
44.9
43.6
Widowers
5,984
–
5
34
89
224
323
415
644
922
907
878
729
460
354
61.3
61.7
Total
273,069
6,615
46,014
73,072
57,592
35,061
21,599
13,781
8,867
5,263
2,764
1,301
670
308
162
33.1
30.8
Single women
194,348
6,573
45,085
68,544
45,197
18,234
6,485
2,387
1,039
459
173
86
45
26
15
29.1
28.3
Divorced
72,875
42
910
4,420
12,142
16,411
14,516
10,696
7,097
4,030
1,710
616
200
66
19
41.9
40.8
Widows
5,846
–
19
108
253
416
598
698
731
774
881
599
425
216
128
55.1
55.6
2005
Total
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80 and over
Mean age 1
Median age 1
247,805
1,280
21,033
58,066
58,830
38,909
25,485
15,947
10,732
8,215
4,534
2,420
1,259
656
439
36.2
33.6
173,413
1,277
20,912
56,523
51,680
25,551
10,614
3,762
1,575
845
370
156
100
32
16
31.7
30.7
68,672
3
117
1,526
7,062
13,199
14,571
11,747
8,554
6,438
3,278
1,409
530
177
61
45.5
44.2
5,720
–
4
17
88
159
300
438
603
932
886
855
629
447
362
61.6
61.7
247,805
4,364
38,003
68,062
52,369
32,001
20,757
13,286
8,525
5,239
2,809
1,299
648
290
153
33.5
31.1
176,505
4,347
37,416
64,504
42,306
17,404
6,475
2,317
974
457
164
84
32
15
10
29.5
28.5
65,915
17
577
3,487
9,873
14,275
13,819
10,341
6,807
4,011
1,796
639
205
52
16
42.6
41.6
5,385
–
10
71
190
322
463
628
744
771
849
576
411
223
127
56.2
56.8
20062p
Total
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80 and over
Mean age 1
Median age 1
236,980
1,070
19,220
55,950
54,920
37,520
24,440
15,680
10,620
8,210
4,600
2,330
1,240
720
460
36.4
33.7
167,200
1,070
19,110
54,650
49,100
25,380
10,620
4,000
1,660
900
400
160
80
40
30
31.8
30.8
64,400
–
110
1,290
5,760
11,970
13,570
11,330
8,420
6,380
3,310
1,420
550
210
80
46.0
44.8
5,380
–
–
10
60
170
250
360
540
930
890
750
600
480
350
62.1
62.0
236,980
3,780
35,160
66,310
49,030
30,800
19,760
13,140
8,410
5,210
2,880
1,360
670
320
170
33.7
31.2
170,710
3,770
34,680
63,190
40,470
17,500
6,550
2,520
1,130
490
200
120
60
20
10
29.7
28.6
61,100
20
470
3,080
8,390
13,010
12,760
10,010
6,580
3,970
1,900
630
210
60
20
43.1
42.1
5,170
–
10
40
180
290
450
620
700
750
780
600
400
230
130
56.7
57.1
Note: Single men and single women are those that have never been married.
1 The mean and median ages shown in this table are not standardised and therefore take no account of the structure of the population by age or marital status.
2 Figures for 2006 may not add precisely due to rounding.
p Figures for 2006 are provisional.
Source: Office for National Statistics FM2 Tables 3.15–3.19
O f f ic e f or N a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c s 70
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
S u m m e r 2008
Annual Update:
Marriages and divorces
during 2005, and adoptions
in 2006: England and Wales
Introduction
This update summarises the findings from the Office for National
Statistics annual reference volume Marriage, divorce and adoption
statistics (series FM2 no. 33), published on 26 March 2008. It presents
data and analysis on trends in marriages and divorces over the past
decade up to 2005, and in adoptions up to 2006, in England and Wales.
Particular attention is given to:
•
the marital status of the population
•
marriages by previous marital status, average age at marriage, type
of ceremony and address as an indication of cohabitation
•
divorces by previous marital status, average age at divorce, duration
of marriage, children involved in divorce, fact proven, and interval
between petition and decree absolute
•
adoptions by age of the child
The annual reference volume contains more detailed information on these
and other themes. It is available on the National Statistics website:
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=581
Marital status of the population
The decline in marriage rates and relatively high divorce rates in the last
decade have resulted in a decrease in the number of married people in the
population of England and Wales.
The population of England and Wales in mid–2005 was 53 million people.1
The number of people in 2005 aged 16 or over, and therefore legally able
to marry, was 43.1 million, 6 per cent more than in 1995. Between 1995
and 2005, the population of single people aged 16 and over increased by
27 per cent, while the number of married people decreased by 5 per cent.
Single people aged 16 and over made up about 33 per cent of the adult
population in 2005 compared with 28 per cent in 1995. In 2005 married
people formed 50 per cent of the adult population compared with 56 per
cent in 1995. The number of divorced people increased by 31 per cent to
3.9 million in the ten years from 1995 (Table A).
Mid-year population estimates by marital status, 1995–2005
Table A
England and Wales
Population aged 16 and over
Thousands
Year
Total
Single
Married
Percentages
Divorced
Widowed
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
1995
40,686.3
11,173.0
22,881.2
2,994.7
3,637.3
27.5
56.2
7.4
8.9
1996
40,826.7
11,392.4
22,742.7
3,076.7
3,614.9
27.9
55.7
7.5
8.9
1997
40,965.9
11,625.0
22,592.7
3,159.5
3,588.7
28.4
55.1
7.7
8.8
1998
41,121.4
11,856.7
22,467.4
3,231.2
3,566.1
28.8
54.6
7.9
8.7
1999
41,325.1
12,107.7
22,377.2
3,308.2
3,532.0
29.3
54.1
8.0
8.5
2000
41,568.7
12,370.2
22,312.1
3,383.0
3,503.4
29.8
53.7
8.1
8.4
2001
41,864.8
12,691.7
22,239.5
3,456.2
3,477.3
30.3
53.1
8.3
8.3
2002
42,135.0
13,043.0
22,082.8
3,569.2
3,440.1
31.0
52.4
8.5
8.2
2003
42,409.0
13,397.9
21,929.5
3,685.1
3,396.6
31.6
51.7
8.7
8.0
2004
42,730.6
13,793.3
21,785.9
3,798.5
3,353.0
32.3
51.0
8.9
7.8
2005
43,140.8
14,236.9
21,683.1
3,910.0
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/popest
3,310.7
33.0
50.3
9.1
7.7
71
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l Sta ti sti c s
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
Figure 1 shows the estimated mid–2005 distribution of the population
in England and Wales by marital status and age. The majority of people
are single through to the late twenties age group. The largest change in
marital status of the population occurs to those aged between 30 and 45,
as men and women are more likely to be married. Among people aged 40
to 44, 63 per cent of men and 65 per cent of women are married, while
13 per cent of men and 16 per cent of women are divorced. After the
age of 60, a much greater proportion of women than men are widowed.
This increases with age and by the age of 80, over a half of women are
widowed compared with less than a quarter of men.
Marriage rates for England and Wales were first calculated in 1862.
In England and Wales marriage rates declined relatively steadily from
the beginning of the1970s until the end of the 1990s. The decline
in marriage rates ceased in the year 2000. Between 2000 and 2004
marriage rates increased. As shown by 2005 marital status estimates,
the number of people available to marry has been increasing, but the
number choosing to marry has been declining. Consequently, in 2005
marriage rates decreased to their lowest since they were first calculated.
The marriage rate for men was 24.5 men marrying per 1,000 men aged
16 and over in 2005, compared with 27.7 in 2004 and 34.7 in 1995. In
2005 the marriage rate for women was 21.9 women marrying per 1,000
unmarried women aged 16 and over, compared with 24.6 in 2004 and
29.3 in 1995.
Mid-year population estimates by age, sex
and legal marital status, mid-2005
Figure 1
England and Wales
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
MALES
FEMALES
80
70
Age (years)
60
50
40
30
20
10
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Thousands
Note: Those aged 90 and above are excluded from this chart
Source: www.statistics.gov.uk/popest
The trends in marriage and divorce suggest that a continued decline
will be observed in the proportion of the population that is married.
However, this is in part due to marriage occurring at later ages. The latest
projections of the population by marital status2 suggest that although the
proportion of married people in the population will fall, still a substantial
proportion of people will marry eventually.
Marriages
There were 247,805 marriages in England and Wales in 20053,
a 9 per cent decrease compared with the number observed in 2004.
This decline is particularly notable for two reasons. Firstly, it is the
lowest annual number of marriages since 1896 when 242,746 were
Figure 2
recorded. Moreover, the decrease follows three consecutive increases
in the number of marriages and aligns the number of marriages with
the declining trend experienced in recent decades. This suggests that
the increase observed between 2002 and 2004 may not have been the
start of a long-term trend of marriage increase in England and Wales.
This is supported by provisional marriage statistics for 2006 which
show a further decline in the number of marriages. Trends in marriage
are explored in detail in the article ‘Understanding recent trends in
marriage’ in Population Trends 128.4
Eighty-one per cent of marriages in 2005 were the first marriage for at
least one partner and 60 per cent were the first for both partners. There
were 148,405 marriages in 2005 which were the first for both parties,
almost 9 per cent fewer than in 2004. Despite increases in recent years,
the long-term trend for first marriages is one of decline. Since 1995,
numbers of first marriages have declined almost 13 per cent.
As the population has increased, and first marriages have decreased, first
marriage rates for both men and women (where the marriage is a first
marriage for at least one person) have subsequently declined over the
past decade. Rates for women are higher than those for men: 27.0 women
per 1,000 single women aged 16 and over married for the first time in
2005, compared with 22.5 men. The corresponding rates in 1995 were
39.3 for women and 32.4 for men.
Figure 2 shows first marriage rates by sex and age group over the period
1995 to 2005. First marriage rates have decreased for all age groups
under 40, but for those aged under 25 rates have more than halved.
Primarily as a result of the decline in marriage at younger ages, the first
marriage rate for men aged 40 to 44 is higher than for those aged 20–24.
The rate for men aged 30 to 34 is higher than for those aged 25 to 29.
The first marriage rate for women aged 35 to 39 is higher than for women
aged 20 to 24.
First marriage rates by age group, 1995-2005
England and Wales
100
100
MALES
90
80
70
30–34
60
50
25–29
40
35–39
30
40–44
20
20–24
10
Under 20
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: FM2 no. 33 (2005) Table 3.10
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
72
First marriage rate
(per thousand single women)
First marriage rate
(per thousand single men)
90
FEMALES
80
70
25–29
60
50
40
30
20
10
30–34
35–39
20–24
40–44
Under 20
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Marriages that were remarriages for both parties accounted for 19 per
cent of all marriages in 2005.5 Although the number of remarriages for
both parties has decreased by 12 per cent since 1995, the proportion
of remarriages has remained fairly constant over the last decade.
Remarriage rates for men fell for every age group between 2004 and
2005. With the exception of those aged 55 and over, a similar decline
was observed in the female remarriage rates.
Marriages by type of ceremony, 1995–2005
Figure 3
England and Wales
Civil marriage: Register office
Other Christian
Civil marriage: Approved premises
Other Religious
Church of England and Church in Wales
300
The long-term trend over the period 1995 to 2005 was one of decreasing
remarriage rates. The rate for men declined by a quarter from 41.4
in 1995, and for women it decreased by a fifth from 18.4 in 1995. In
contrast to first marriage rates, remarriage rates for men are higher than
those for women. There were 14.8 women remarrying per 1,000 divorced
and widowed women in 2005. For men the corresponding rate was 30.8.
Marriages (thousands)
250
The average (mean) age at marriage for men increased by over three
years over the decade to 2005. Men were on average 36.2 years at
marriage in 2005, compared with 33.1 years in 1995. The mean age for
women increased by just under three years from 30.7 years to 33.5 years
over the same period. The mean age for first marriage in 2005 was
31.7 years for men and 29.5 years for women compared with 28.9 and
26.8 ten years previously.
200
150
100
50
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: FM2 no. 33 (2005) Table 3.28 and 3.33.
The increase in the average age at marriage is primarily a reflection
of decreases in the proportions of under 30s marrying. A third of men
marrying in 2005 were under 30 years old compared with half of all men
a decade earlier. Forty-five per cent of women marrying in 2005 were in
this age group compared with 61 per cent in 1995.
Figure 3 shows the changes in the type of marriage ceremony between
1995 and 2005. There were 162,169 civil marriage ceremonies in
2005, 65 per cent of all marriages. In 2004, there were 184,913 civil
marriage ceremonies. This is a decrease of over 22,000 (12 per cent). The
proportion of civil marriage ceremonies first exceeded the proportion of
religious ceremonies in 1992. Since then the proportion of civil marriages
has increased year on year, while religious ceremonies have decreased
each year to 2004. However, in 2005, the proportion of ceremonies that
were civil decreased for the first time in 15 years, from 68 per cent of all
ceremonies in 2004 to 65 per cent in 2005.
The increase of civil marriage ceremonies from the mid-nineties
onwards coincided with the introduction of approved premises in 1995.6
Table B
S u m m e r 2008
Thirty-six per cent of all marriages in 2005 took place in approved
premises compared with 5 per cent in 1996. Marriages in approved
premises in 2005 accounted for 56 per cent of all civil marriages.
The number of religious ceremonies has decreased by a third since 1995.
In 2005, 85,636 marriages were solemnised in religious ceremonies
compared with 127,522 in 1995. The proportion of all marriages
solemnised in the Church of England and the Church of Wales decreased
from 30 per cent in 1995 to 25 per cent of all marriages in 2005.
The residential address of the couple immediately before marriage has been
shown to be a good indicator of whether a couple were cohabiting prior
to marriage.7 In 2005, identical addresses were given by 80 per cent of all
couples getting married. This figure varied depending on the marital status
of the people marrying and the type of ceremony. The proportion was 89 per
cent for couples where both partners had previously been divorced and 76
per cent for marriages that were the first for both parties.
Summary of marriages, divorces and adoptions 1995–2006
England and Wales
Year
Marriages
Total
Adoptions
Divorces1
First marriage of both Remarriage of both
parties
parties
People marrying per
1,000 population of
all ages
Total
Number of couples
with children2 under
16
People divorcing
per 1,000 married
population
Adoptions by date of
court order
1995
283,012
166,418
52,619
11.0
155,499
85,867
13.6
5,840
1996
278,975
160,680
53,642
10.9
157,107
86,933
13.8
5,741
1997
272,536
156,907
52,718
10.6
146,689
80,670
13.0
5,212
1998
267,303
156,539
50,122
10.3
145,214
80,476
12.9
4,617
1999
263,515
155,027
48,948
10.1
144,556
79,298
12.9
4,987
2000
267,961
156,140
50,271
10.3
141,135
76,776
12.7
5,086
2001
249,227
148,642
44,642
9.5
143,818
79,277
12.9
5,386
2002
255,596
151,014
46,814
9.7
147,735
80,997
13.4
5,486
2003
270,109
160,283
49,752
10.2
153,490
83,809
14.0
5,363
2004
273,069
163,007
49,772
10.3
153,399
82,017
14.1
5,3723
2005
247,805
148,405
46,292
9.3
141,750
75,247
13.1
5,2803
2006 4
236,980
144,210
43,190
8.8
132,562
69,895
12.2
4,764
1 Includes decrees of nullity.
2 Children aged under 16 at the date of petition for divorce, not at decree absolute. Children are those who have been treated as “children of the family”, and may include step children and
adopted children.
3 These figures have been revised from those which were previously published.
4 Figures for 2006 are provisional until the publication of the FM2 no. 34.
Source: FM2 no. 33 (2005) Tables 2.1, 2.2, 4.10 and 6.1b
73
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l Sta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
Figure 4
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Divorce rates by age group, 1995–2005
England and Wales
35
MALES
30
35–39
25
25–29
30–34
20–24
40–44
20
45–49
15
10
50–59
5
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Divorce rates
(per thousand married women)
Divorce rates
(per thousand married men)
35
FEMALES
30
20–24
30–34
25
35–39
20
15
25–29
40–44
45–49
10
5
50–59
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: FM2 no. 33 (2005) Table 4.1
Nearly nine out of ten (88 per cent) couples marrying in a civil ceremony
gave identical residential addresses at marriage compared with 64 per
cent of couples who married in a religious ceremony. These percentages
reflect the larger proportion of divorced people marrying in a civil
ceremony; nearly nine out of ten couples were so married, while 55 per
cent of marriages that were the first for both parties involved a civil
ceremony.
Divorces
There were 141,750 divorces granted in England and Wales in 2005,
an 8 per cent decrease on the 2004 figure of 153,399. This is the second
consecutive year that divorces have decreased and is the lowest number
since 2000 when there were 141,135 divorces. There were over 13,500
fewer divorces in 2005 than in 1995, a decrease of 9 per cent (Table B).
Table B also shows that the divorce rate decreased to 13.1 divorcing
people per 1,000 married population in 2005 from 14.1 in 2004. Figure 4
shows divorce rates by sex and age group over the period 1995 to 2005.
Divorce rates remained highest for those aged 25 to 29 for the third
consecutive year. In 2005, there were 28.3 divorces per 1,000 married men
aged 25 to 29 and 28.8 divorces per 1,000 married women aged 25 to 29.
Over the decade 1995 to 2005 divorce rates to men and women in age
groups 35 and over have increased. The largest percentage changes were
to people aged 60 and over. For men aged 60 and over the rate increased
29 per cent from 1.7 in 1995 to 2.2 in 2005. For women in the same age
group, the rate increased by 36 per cent from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.5 in 2005.
Still, the divorce rates for the over 60s remain the lowest of all the
age groups.
The average (mean) age at divorce increased by approximately three
and a half years between 1995 and 2005, in part reflecting the increase
in the average age at marriage from the 1970s onwards. The average age
for men at divorce was 43.1 years in 2005, compared with 39.6 years in
1995. For women the average age at divorce increased to 40.6 years in
2005 from 37.0 years in 1995.
Between 1995 and 1996, the median duration of marriage ending in
divorce remained steady at 9.9 years, it has since then increased steadily.
In 2005 the median duration of marriage ending in divorce was 11.6 years.
Just over two thirds of all divorces in 2005 were to couples for whom
the marriage had been the first for both parties. This proportion has
decreased from 72 per cent in 1995. This downward trend is largely in
line with the decrease in the proportion of first marriages. Nearly one
third of men and women who divorced in 2005 had a previous marriage
ending in divorce.
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
74
Fifty-three per cent of the couples divorcing in 2005 had at least one
child8 aged under 16 at the time of petition for divorce. There were
136,332 children aged under 16 to parents who divorced in 2005. This
is an average of 1.81 children under 16 per divorcing couple (that had
children aged under 16) compared with 1.87 children under 16 in 1995.
One fifth of these children were aged under five years and almost two
thirds were aged under 11 years old. Thirty-three per cent of all divorcing
couples had no children recorded.
Sixty-eight per cent of all divorces in 2005 were granted to the wife. The
most common fact proven at these divorces was the husband’s behaviour
(53 per cent), followed by two years’ separation with consent (21 per
cent) and adultery (19 per cent). Of the divorces granted to the husband,
the most common fact proven was two year’s separation with consent
(32 per cent of cases), followed by wife’s behaviour (31 per cent) and
adultery (23 per cent).
In 39 per cent of all divorces in 2005 the interval between petition and
decree absolute was less than six months. Divorces which involved
children generally took longer. In 2005, of those couples who had
children aged under 16, only a third of the divorces took less than six
months from petition to decree absolute. Only 8 per cent of all divorces
took longer than two years from petition to decree absolute. Divorces
with two years separation with consent as the fact proven were most
likely to be granted quickly, with over half granted within six months
of petition. Divorces with behaviour as the fact proven had the lowest
proportion (31 per cent) granted within six months.
Adoptions
There were 4,764 children adopted9 in England and Wales in 2006. This
number is 10 per cent lower than in 2005 and 17 per cent lower than in
1996. The number of children adopted declined steadily from 5,840 in
1995 to 4,617 in 1998, before increasing again to 5,486 in 2002.
Figure 5 shows the trends in adoptions by age group over a decade. Apart
from those aged 1 to 4, the number of children adopted has decreased in
each age group since 1996. The largest decrease was for children aged
10 to 14, where the number adopted decreased by over half (62 per cent).
The number of children adopted aged under 1 and 15 to 17 declined by
19 per cent and 51 per cent respectively, while the number of children
aged 5 to 9 decreased by over a third (39 per cent). Although the number
of children adopted aged 1 to 4 decreased 8 per cent between 2005 and
2006, this still represents an increase of 61 per cent compared with 1996.
Just over three-quarters (78 per cent) of children that were adopted in
2006 were born outside marriage, compared with 61 per cent in 1996.
The proportion of adopted children who were born outside marriage has
increased steadily over this period.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 132
Figure 5
References and background notes
Adoptions by age group, 1996–2006
England and Wales
3,000
1–4
2,500
Number
2,000
5–9
1,500
1,000
10–14
500
S u m m e r 2008
15–17
Under 1
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: FM2 no. 33 (2005) Table 6.2b
Key findings
• There were 247,805 marriages in 2005, 9 per cent fewer than in
2004.
• Marriage rates have decreased between 1995 and 2005. The
steepest decline has been for marriages that were the first for both
parties and for those aged under 35.
• First marriages rates have decreased for every age group. The first
marriage rate for women aged 35 to 39 was higher than for women
aged 20 to 24, a trend which began in 2002.
• Two-thirds of marriages were solemnised with a civil ceremony.
Of these just over half took place in approved premises.
• There were 141,750 divorces in 2005. This is the lowest number
since 2000 and the second consecutive year that the number of
divorces has decreased.
• The divorce rate decreased to 13.1 divorcing people per 1,000
married population in 2005 from 14.1 divorcing people per 1,000
married population in 2004.
• Over the period 1995 to 2005 the average age at marriage
increased by just under three years and the average age at divorce
increased by three and a half years.
• Over half of all divorcing couples had at least one child aged
under 16.
• Sixty-eight per cent of all divorces in 2005 were granted to the
wife. The most common facts proven were ‘behaviour’ for divorces
granted to the wife and ‘two years separation with consent’ for
those granted to the husband.
• There were 4,764 adoptions in 2006, 10 per cent fewer than
in 2005.
1 The population estimates by marital status used to calculate rates in
this update are the latest available: Revised 2002–2005 marital status
estimates were published on 29 November 2007. Further information
on population estimates can be found on the National Statistics
website at www.statistics.gov.uk/popest.
2 ONS (2005) 2003-based marital status and cohabitation projections
for England and Wales Population Trends 121 pp 77–84.
3 Marriage figures relate only to marriages taking place in England
and Wales. Marriages of England and Wales residents that take place
outside England and Wales are not included in the figures.
4 Wilson B, Smallwood S (2007) Understanding recent trends in
marriage. Population Trends 128 pp 24–32
5 See Table 4 in Report: ‘Marriages in England and Wales, 2006’, in
this publication.
6 Approved premises are buildings such as hotels and stately homes
licensed by local authorities under the Marriage Act 1994 for the
solemnisation of marriages. In addition, some local authorities
have made accommodation available for civil marriage as approved
premises in place of register offices. The provision for marriages in
approved premises came into effect on 1 April 1995.
7 Haskey J (1997). Spouses with identical residential addresses before
marriage: an indicator of pre-marital cohabitation. Population Trends
89, pp. 13–23.
8 In this context, ‘children’ are children of the family, and include both
step-children and adopted children treated as children of the family.
Their ages are as at date of petition for divorce.
9 The adoption figures in this update are based on the date of the court
order, and do not include foreign adoptions.
75
O f f i ce f o r N a t i o n a l Sta ti sti c s
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 2
S u m m e r 2 0 08
Other population and health articles, publications and data
Population Trends 133
Health Statistics Quarterly 39
Publication September 2008
Publication August 2008
Planned
articles:
Reports:
•
•
Home births in the UK, 1955–2006
Population ‘turnover’ and ‘churn’ – enhancing
understanding of internal migration in Britain through
measures of stability
•
Counting Europe in: practices of the UN-ECE Member
States in the 2000 round of censuses
•
ONS usage of a Postcode Best Fit methodology for
producing population estimates
•
•
•
Marriages abroad
Planned
articles:
Birthweight and gestational age by ethnic group,
England and Wales, 2005: introducing new data on
births
•
Geographical variations in deaths related to drug misuse
in England and Wales, 1993–2006
•
An analysis of mortality differences between rural and
urban areas in England and Wales, 2002–04, including
adjustment for deprivation
Reports: •
Marital status estimates, 2006
Deaths in England and Wales, 2006
Forthcoming Annual
Reference Volumes:
•
Deaths involving Clostridium difficile: England and
Wales, 2003–07
•
Deaths involving MRSA: England and Wales, 2003–07
•
Unexplained deaths in infancy, 2006
Title
Planned publication
Mortality statistics: childhood, infant and perinatal 2006, DH3 no. 39*
July 2008
*Available through the National Statistics website only www.statistics.gov.uk
Offic e fo r N at io n al S t at ist ic s
76