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ISBN 0 11 621179 2
ISSN 0307-4463
Population
trends 102
Winter 2000
In this issue
Page
In brief
2
Demographic indicators
4
Population review of 1999: England and Wales
Summarises the key demographic features of England and Wales in 1999
Giles Horsfield
5
Geographic variations in conceptions to women aged under 18
in Great Britain during the 1990s
Examines geographic variations in conceptions to women aged under 18 for the three
countries of Great Britain
Clare Griffiths and Liz Kirby
Children’s Family Change: Reports and Records of Mothers, Fathers and
Children compared
Investigates family change, in terms of the arrival and departure of adults in families with
children
Lynda Clarke, Heather Joshi and Pamela Di Salvo
Projections of the population by ethnic group: a sufficiently interesting or a
definitely necessary exercise to undertake?
Explores the challenges involved in compiling population projections by ethnic group, and
the range of likely uses for such projections
John Haskey
Tables
List of Tables
Tables 1.1 - 9.3
Notes to Tables
13
24
34
41
42
70
Annual Update:
Conceptions in 1998 and births in 1999, England and Wales
71
Reports:
Mid- 1999 population estimates
Divorces in England and Wales during 1999
75
78
London: The Stationery Office
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
in brief
2001 Census
A significant milestone in the run up to the
2001 Census of population was reached on 29
October with the arrival of Census At School a web-based survey which is expected to
produce the largest database of children’s
statistics in the country.
The project is managed by the Royal Statistical
Society (RSS) Centre for Statistical Education,
based at The Nottingham Trent University, in
partnership with the Office for National
Statistics, the Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency and Maths Year 2000 and it
is expected that over a million school children
will take part.
During October, schools were invited to
register an interest in the project at
www.censusatschool.ntu.ac.uk, a website
containing a variety of teaching resources
associated with data collection in addition to
the pupil questionnaire which formed the basis
of the project.
All school children aged 7–16, in participating
schools, were asked to complete a one-page
questionnaire on 29 October 2000, or as soon
as possible after that date. Some of the
questions asked in the schools’ census mirror
those to be asked in the main Census of
population on 29 April 2001, but there were
also questions on such topics as: pet
ownership, favourite school subject and
favourite football team. Information is also
being collected about PC/Internet access to
produce an indicator for the growing level of
high-tech awareness of pupils.
Director of the Census, Graham Jones, sees the
schools’ census not just as a valuable learning
activity but also an effective awareness-raiser
for the main census on 29 April 2001. ‘We
want CensusAtSchool to be a talking point at
National Statistics
2
home as well as an educational opportunity. In
a very real sense this initiative will promote
the Census within the family’.
For further information, visit the project
website at www.censusatschool.ntu.ac.uk or
contact Rob Reynolds, Census Media
Initiatives (tel: 01329 813930, e-mail:
[email protected])
The first two chapters in the volume,
concentrate on urban/rural migration and the
characteristics of migrants to rural areas.
Chapters 3 and 4 focus on migration in to and
out of specific geographic areas (Cornwall and
Wales). Chapters 5 and 6 consider the
relationship between migration and household
change, the particular characteristics of
migrants to Inner London, and the importance
of high-earning women on the London housing
market. Chapter 7 focuses on the social and
spatial mobility of the Ugandan Asian
community who settled in Britain after their
expulsion from Uganda in the early 1970s. The
final chapter looks at job-related migration
among former mineworkers.
Some of the finding presented are:
Migration within
England and Wales
Migration or the movement of people from
rural to urban areas across national boundaries
is an important social phenomenon, shaping
the society in which we live today. The latest
volume in the ONS Longitudinal Study series;
Migration within England and Wales using the
ONS Longitudinal Study,1 is based on a
collection of papers presented at a one day
Longitudinal Study (LS) seminar on internal
migration. The volume highlights the many
different aspects of migration analysis that are
feasible using linked census and event data
from the ONS Longitudinal Study (full details
of the Longitudinal Study were published in an
earlier volume in this series.2 )
The introduction to the volume describes the
range of data that are available and some of the
advantages of the LS over other, more
traditional, sources of migration data. One of
the major strengths of the study is the
opportunity to trace the same individual across
different census points , allowing changes in
individual circumstances (economic status,
occupation, housing tenure etc) to be identified
and linked to residential change.
Evidence on the social characteristics of those
who moved into and out of Cornwall in the
period 1971-91 suggest that both
unemployment and the pursuit of higher
education are important predictors of outmigration from the county.
Between 1981 and 1991, the Ugandan Asian
community experienced significant upward
social mobility, with a move towards
‘professional and managerial’ occupations and
a substantial increase in the numbers who were
self-employed. This upward social mobility
has mainly been achieved by most members of
the community remaining resident in the
original areas of resettlement (Outer London
and Leicester.)
The volume confirms findings from singleyear migration data, which suggest that
migration from cities to the countryside is not
significant. There is also little support for the
assumption that the English countryside is
increasingly dominated by ‘professional and
managerial’ households, although these types
of households were found in particular local
areas, largely in the South East.
Housing tenure appears to be an important
factor in the relative immobility of former
mineworkers.
Population Trends 102
Further information on the report is available
from the Editor, Rosemary Creeser (Tel: 020
7612 6877, E-mail [email protected]
1.
2.
Migration within England and Wales using the
ONS Longitudinal Study (ISBN 0 11 621395 7,
TSO, October 2000).
Longitudinal Study 1971 - 1991, History,
organisation and quality of data (ISBN 0 11 691637
0, HMSO, 1995).
Patterns and
trends in
international
migration in
Western Europe
Eurostat , the Statistical Office of the
European Communities, has recently published
Patterns and trends in international migration
in Western Europe by John Salt, James Clarke
and Sandra Schmidt, with the help of others
from the Migration Research Unit at
University College, London.
growth, also resulting of course from decreases
in annual numbers of births.
At a country level one of the findings of the
study was the variability in migration patterns
and trends - in terms of the origins and
destinations of international migrants, their
characteristics and the timing of movements.
Many of these differences reflect historical
relationships and earlier migrations.
In the 1980s and 1990s there was an increase
in immigration from neighbouring regions,
Germany taking the largest share who, with
Austria, was the main destination of emigrants
from eastern Europe. Italy and Spain saw
increased immigration from North America
and to a lesser extent from South America and
Asia. Italy and Greece increased their
admissions from the Balkans
Recent data from population registers in
selected countries as at 1 January 1994 is shown
in Figures A & B. Limited data were available
for Sweden (and relate to 31 December
1993).UK data are grossed up from Labour
Force Survey results and are, therefore less
reliable than for other countries. Data for
Figure A
Winter 2000
Greece was not comparable and has been
excluded as was Germany which does not
collect data on birthplace.
Figure A shows the foreign-born population as
a percentage of the total population in each
country. Luxembourg has the highest
proportion with 30.2 per cent, followed by
Switzerland with 21.3 per cent and France with
11 per cent. At the other extreme, Finland has
the smallest proportion with 1.9 per cent,
followed by Spain with 2.2 per cent and
Portugal with 4.6 per cent.
Figure B shows the actual sizes of the foreignborn populations for each of the countries.
France has the highest number with 6.2
million, followed by the UK with 3.9 million.
All other countries have less than 2 million
people born abroad, with only 100,000 in the
case of Finland.
The full Report is available from the Eurostat
Data Shop at ONS, e-mail
[email protected]
1 Patterns and trends in international migration in
Western Europe (Eurostat, 2000, ISBN 92 828 9898 9)
Foreign-born population as a percentage of the total population,
selected countries
Per cent
The volume charts the various phases and types
of international migration since the first world
war with particular emphasis on the last two
decades. It covers flows (immigration and
emigration), the stocks of foreign born
populations, foreign workers, asylum migration
to western Europe, acquisition of citizenship as
well as a chapter on the problems of definition,
measurement and data sources.
It noted that in the 19th and first part of the
20th century, Europe was principally a region
of emigration In contrast after the Second
World War, western Europe emerged as a
labour importing area initially from former
colonies and southern Europe but later from
North Africa and Turkey As a consequence the
stock of foreign born population has continued
to rise (see current levels in Figures A and B.)
Immigration has continued, particularly from
countries outside the European Union so that
for most countries in Europe, net inward
migration is the main element of population
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Lux
Swi
Fra
Swe
Bel
NL
UK
Den
Nor
Ire
Por
Spa
Fin
Source: Eurostat
Figure B
Foreign-born population in absolute figures, selected countries
Millions
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Fra
Source: Eurostat
UK
Swi
NL
Bel
Swe
Spa
Por
Den
Nor
Ire
Lux
Fin
Recent Publications
Mortality Statistics General 1998 (DH1 no. 31) (The Stationery
Office, September, £30, ISBN 0 11 621377 9)
Regional Trends 2000 edition (no. 35) (The Stationery Office,
£39.50, September, ISBN 0 11 621271 3)
Key Health Statistics from General Practice 1997 (MB6 no. 2)
(Office for National Statistics, October, £30, ISBN 1 85774 402 0)
Migration within England and Wales using the ONS
Longitudinal Study (LS no.9) (The Stationery Office, October, £32.50,
ISBN 0 11 612395 7)
Health Statistics Quarterly 07 (The Stationery Office, November,
£20, ISBN 0 11 621182 2)
Travel Trends 2000 edition (The Stationery Office, November,
£39.50, ISBN 0 11 621368 X)
3
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Demographic indicators
Figure A
England and Wales
Population change (mid-year to mid-year)
Thousands
200
100
0
Net migration and
other changes
Natural change
Total change
9
-9
98
97
–9
8
7
6
–9
96
–9
95
–9
5
4
94
–9
93
92
–9
3
2
1
–9
–9
91
90
89
–9
0
9
8
–8
88
–8
87
86
–8
7
6
5
–8
85
–8
84
83
–8
4
3
2
–8
82
–8
81
–8
80
79
–8
1
0
9
8
–7
78
–7
77
–7
76
–7
75
7
6
5
4
–7
74
–7
–7
73
72
2
–7
71
19
3
-100
Mid-year
Figure B
Total period fertility rate
TFR (average number of children per woman)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Figure C
Live births outside marriage
Percentage of all live births
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Figure D
Infant mortality (under 1 year)
Rate per 1,000 live births
20
15
10
5
0
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
National Statistics
4
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Population review of 1999:
England and Wales
Giles Horsfield,
Population and Vital Statistics
Office for National Statistics
This article outlines the
main features of the
population of England and
Wales in 1999. Where 1999
figures have not yet been
produced, data for the latest
available year are given.
MAIN POINTS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The population of England and Wales was estimated at 52.7
million in 1999, an increase of 0.5 per cent compared with 1998.
The population has increased every year since 1982.
Net migration to England and Wales in 1998–99 totalled 189
thousand, an increase of 66 thousand compared with 1997–98.
There were 622 thousand live births in 1999, 2 per cent fewer than
in 1998 and 11 per cent fewer than in 1991.
There were 554 thousand deaths in England and Wales in 1999, an
increase of under 0.1 per cent compared with 1998.
The number of marriages in England and Wales fell to 267
thousand in 1998, 5 thousand fewer than in 1997.
The number of divorces granted in England and Wales fell for the
second consecutive year, to 145 thousand in 1998.
TOTAL POPULATION
The mid-1999 population estimate for England and Wales was 52.7
million, an increase of 262 thousand (0.5 per cent) compared with
1998. This was the greatest annual increase since 1991. Figure 1 shows
that the population is projected to reach 57.1 million by 2023, although
longer term projections suggest that the rate of increase will decline
gradually to almost zero by 2038.
5
Office forStatistics
National Statistics
National
Population Trends 102
Figure 1
Winter 2000
Estimated and projected population of
England and Wales, 1981–2023
Figure 2a
Profile of the estimated population of
England and wales by age and sex, mid-1999
Age
Population (millions)
58
100
Projections
57
90
56
80
55
70
54
60
53
50
52
40
51
30
50
20
49
10
48
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Year
2006
2011
2016
2021
Males
Females
Number (thousands)
0
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Number (thousands)
AGE STRUCTURE
Figure 2a shows the age distribution of the mid-1999 population of
England and Wales. The peaks at ages 34 and 52 result from the baby
booms during the 1960’s and after the Second World War. Fertility rates
dropped sharply in the early 1970’s, and reached a low point in 1977.
This is reflected by the low number of people aged 25 and under.
Figure 2b
Profile of the projected population of England
and Wales by age and sex, mid-2023
Age
100
Figure 3 shows the change in age structure of the population, by broad
age bands, between 1991 and 1999. The population of children under
16 years old has increased by 3.8 per cent to 10.7 million. However,
while the number of school age children has increased by 8.9 per cent
to 7.5 million, the number of pre-school age children (0–4 years) has
decreased by 6.4 per cent as a result of declining numbers of births.
The population of children under 16 years old is projected to decline by
5.3 per cent to 10.1 million between 1999 and 2023.
90
80
70
60
50
Most people born during the 1960’s baby boom have entered the 30–44
years age group over the last 8 years. Similarly, the post Second World
War baby boomers have moved into the 45–59/64 age band. The 16–29
age group is now mainly made up of people born in the low fertility
years of the 1970s, resulting in a decrease in this age group of 13 per
cent between 1991 and 1999. This is partly off-set by the high levels of
migration observed for this age group.
Overall, the number of people of pensionable age increased by 1.4 per
cent between 1991 and 1999. The 60/65–74 age group fell slightly,
representing the low fertility rates of the 1930s. Conversely the 75–84
and 85+ age groups increased, partly attributable to people born in the
post First World War baby boom reaching 75 years old, and also to
increases in life expectancy.
Figure 2b shows the population age structure in 2023 from the 1998based national population projections, and illustrates the projected
ageing of the population. The median age is projected to increase from
37.2 years in 1999 to 42.0 years in 2023. The increase in the numbers
of pensioners will be slowed by the phasing in of retirement at 65 years
for women between 2010 and 2020, but will rapidly increase in the
National Statistics
6
Males
40
Females
30
20
10
Number (thousands)
0
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Number (thousands)
subsequent years. The number of pensioners is thus projected to
increase by 4.6 million to 14.2 million between 1999 and 2038; an
increase from 18.2 per cent to 24.4 per cent of the population.
In the projections, the increase in the proportion of pensioners is greater
than the decrease in the proportion of children under 16. Consequently,
the dependency ratio is projected to increase from 625 per thousand
people of working age in 1999 to 708 per thousand in 2038.
Population Trends 102
Figure 3
Change in the population of England and
Wales between 1991 and 1999
Figure 4
Winter 2000
Population density for the counties and
unitary authorities of England and Wales,
mid-1999
Population (millions)
Persons per
square kilometre
14.0
Mid-1991
1000 or over
Mid-1999
12.0
600 to 999
300 to 599
150 to 299
10.0
149 or under
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0-4
5-9
10-15 16-29 30-44 45-59/ 60/65†- 75-84
64*
74
Age-group
85+
* Men aged 45 to 64, women aged 45 to 59
† Men aged 65 to 74, women aged 60 to 74.
Population Density
Figure 4 shows the population densities of the counties and unitary
authorities of England and Wales. In 1999, England had an average of
381 people and Wales 141 people per square kilometre, compared with
380 and 141 people in 1998. The most densely populated districts were
Kensington and Chelsea at 14,449 and Islington at 11,984 people per
square kilometre. The least densely populated were Eden (Cumbria) and
Powys UA, with 23 and 24 people per square kilometre respectively.
Components of Population Change
Figure 5
Population change, net international migration
and natural change in England and Wales, midyear to mid-year, 1980–81 to 1998–99
Change (thousands)
300
Figure 5 shows annual population change, mid year to mid year, for
England and Wales for years between 1981 and 1999, and its
constituents; net international migration1 and other changes2 , and
natural change. In 1982 the population decreased slightly. However,
population growth was restored the following year, and in 1991
exceeded 200 thousand.
Net International Migration
and other changes
250
Natural Change
Total Population Change
200
150
50
0
Year to mid
7
National Statistics
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
-100
1983
-50
1982
Natural change is calculated as births minus deaths. There have been
recent decreases in both fertility and mortality (see below), meaning
that natural change has remained relatively stable. A rapid rise in deaths
is projected to occur in England and Wales between 2015 and 2038, as
the large cohorts born immediately after the Second World War begin to
reach elderly ages. Conversely births are projected to continue to fall
slowly. If these projections were realised, natural change would be
negative by 2031.
100
1981
Net international migration and other changes in England and Wales
totalled 190 thousand in the year to mid-1999, an increase of 66
thousand (53 per cent) compared with the previous year. Migration in
1998–99 was the highest ever recorded. Figure 5 shows that migration
does fluctuate substantially from one year to the next.
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Local Change
Figure 6
The population changes by Government Office Region between
1991 and 1999 are shown in Table A. The most rapidly growing
regions over these 8 years have been the East, South East, London
and the South West. Each of these populations has increased by
around 5 per cent. The North East and the North West have both
experienced slight falls in population, of less than one per cent.
However, the overall figure for the North West masks a considerable
difference between Merseyside, with a population decrease of 3.2
per cent, and the remainder of the North West, whose population is
relatively stable.
Net internal migration to England and
Wales*, average 1991–1999
Average net migration (thousands)
South
South West
East
30
20
East
Midlands
10
East
Wales
London
0
The 1996-based subnational population projections assume that past
trends continue into the future. Over the 25 years of the projections,
from 1996–2021, the populations of the East (12.2 per cent), the
South East (12.8 per cent) and the South West (12.6 per cent) are
projected to show the greatest increases in population, followed by
London (9.4 per cent) and the East Midlands (9.2 per cent).
Population declines are projected for the North East, (3.5 per cent),
and the North West (1.5 per cent).
-10
West
Midlands
-20
-30
-40
Internal migration
-50
Figure 6 shows average net internal migration within England and
Wales for Government Office Regions for years between 1991 and
1999. London has experienced the greatest net out migration to the
rest of England and Wales, losing nearly 50 thousand people annually.
Although this is offset by high levels of international migration many international migrants arrive in the London area - the
contribution of the capital as a source of internal migration is striking.
-60
* Includes only migration to and from other areas of England and Wales.
BIRTHS
With the exception of London, the pattern is similar to that of total
population change. The South West experiences the largest net
inward migration of 25 thousand people annually, which is partially
attributable to the popularity of the region as a destination for
retired people. The South East, East and East Midlands also
experience positive net internal migration, while the West Midlands
and Northern regions show negative internal migration of less than
10 thousand people per year. Within the North West, the former
Government Office Region of Merseyside has lost around 0.4 per
cent of its population to the rest of England and Wales every year.
Table A
Yorkshire
and the
North Humber
West
North
East
There were 622 thousand live births in England and Wales in 1999, a
decrease of 14 thousand (2 per cent) compared with 1998. With the
exception of 1996, there has been a reduction in the number of births
every year since 1990. If current patterns of fertility by age were to
remain, an average of 1.70 children per women would be expected in
the future. This is slightly lower then the 1998 figure of 1.72, and well
below the long term replacement figure for developed countries, which
is commonly assumed to be 2.1. The proportion of births outside of
marriage increased slightly to 39 per cent in 1999, compared with 38
per cent in 1998 and 30 per cent in 1991.
Estimated mid-year resident population, England and Wales: by Government Office Regions 1991–1999
Area
Mid-year population (thousands)
Change 1991–99
Components of change 1991–99
1991
1998
1999
Thousands
Percentage
Natural
Change
Migration and
other changes
England and Wales
51,100
52,428
52,690
1,590
3.1
779
825
England
48,208
49,495
49,753
1,545
3.2
773
786
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
2,603
6,885
4,983
2,590
6,891
5,043
2,581
6,881
5,047
-21
-5
64
-0.8
-0.1
1.3
4
52
58
-11
-56
6
East Midlands
West Midlands
4,035
5,265
4,169
5,333
4,191
5,336
156
70
3.9
1.3
51
93
105
-23
East
London
South East
South West
5,150
6,890
7,679
4,718
5,377
7,187
8,004
4,901
5,419
7,285
8,078
4,936
269
395
399
218
5.2
5.7
5.2
4.6
97
316
110
-7
172
80
289
225
Wales
2,891
2,933
2,937
46
1.6
6
39
Note: Figures may not add exactly because of rounding.
National Statistics
8
Population Trends 102
Figure 7
Winter 2000
Age-specific fertility rates*, England and Wales, 1938–1999
Live births per 1,000 women in age-group
200
180
160
140
120
25–29
100
30–34
80
20–24
60
40
35–39
20
Under 20
40–44
0
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
Year
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
* Rates for women aged under 20 and 45 and over are based upon the population of women aged 15–19 and 45–49 respectively.
Figure 7 shows how age specific fertility rates have changed since
1938. There has been a long term decrease in fertility in the 20–24 and
25–29 age groups, although the latter remains the most fertile age group
with nearly 100 births per thousand women. Between 1998 and 1999,
fertility rates continued to fall for women under 30 and increase for
women over 30. Women over 30 years old accounted for 45 per cent of
births in 1999, compared with 32 per cent in 1991.
CONCEPTIONS
Conception statistics are calculated using birth registrations and
abortions registered under the Abortion Act 1967. The estimated
number of conceptions3 in England and Wales in 1998 was 796
thousand, representing a reduction of less than 1 per cent compared
with 1997. In 1998 there were an estimated 44 thousand conceptions to
women under 18. The under-18 conception rate increased by 2 per cent
to 47 per thousand women aged 15–17 in 1998. Conception rates in this
age group have increased annually since 1995. However, this trend
follows decreases observed in the early 1990s, and the under-18
conception rate was lower in 1998 than in 1990. Just over 40 per cent of
conceptions in this age group lead to a legal abortion, compared with
around 20 per cent of all conceptions.
MORTALITY
There were 554 thousand registered deaths in England and Wales in
1999; a marginal increase of less than 0.1 per cent when compared with
1998, and representing the first increase in deaths for 4 years. Different
trends are observed for men and women; with male deaths decreasing
by 0.4 per cent, and female deaths increasing by 0.4 per cent.
Considered as death rates, male mortality decreased from 10.3 per
thousand to 10.2 per thousand between 1998 and 1999, while female
rates were unchanged at 10.9 per thousand.
In 1999, the long term decline in mortality rates continued for both men
and women in most age groups (Figure 8). However, the infant
mortality rate increased slightly from 5.7 to 5.8 per thousand births,
against the long term trend. Mortality rates also rose for both genders in
the 85+ age group. Mortality levels increased for girls aged 10–14,
relating to an increase in the small number of deaths for this group.
Increases in life expectancy at birth from 1981 to 1997 are shown in
Figure 9. Over this period, male life expectancy increased from 71.0
years to 74.8 years; for females the figures are 77.0 years and 79.8 years
respectively. Life expectancy at birth is projected to continue to increase,
reaching 78.8 for males and 82.9 for females respectively by 2021.
ABORTIONS
One hundred and eighty three thousand legal abortions were performed
in England and Wales in 1999, 174 thousand on residents of England
and Wales. Figure 10 shows the number of legal abortions performed in
England and Wales between 1989 and 1999. 1999 was the first year
since 1995 that the number of abortions had decreased. In 1999 the
overall abortion rate was 13.6 abortions per thousand resident women
aged between 14 and 49 compared with a rate of 13.9 per thousand in
1998. There were 9.5 thousand abortions performed on non residents in
1999, the same number as in 1998.
9
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Figure 8
Winter 2000
Age specific mortality rates as a percentage of rates in 1981, England and Wales, 1981–1999*
Females
Males
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989 1991
Year
1993
1995
1–14
1997
1999
1981
45–64
15–44
1983
1985
75–84
65–74
1987
1989 1991
Year
1993
1995
1997
1999
85+
* 1999 death rates are provisional and based on death registrations.
Figure 9
Life expectancy at birth in England and Wales
for males and females, 1981–1997*
Figure 10
Number of abortions to residents and nonresidents, England and Wales, 1991–1999
Age
Abortions (thousands)
82
200
All
180
80
Female
Residents
160
140
78
120
100
76
Male
80
74
60
40
72
20
Non-residents
0
70
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
Year
1991
* Life expectancy figures for 1997 are provisional.
National Statistics
10
1993
1995
1997
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
Population Trends 102
ADOPTIONS
Figure 12
The number of children adopted in 1999 fell only slightly to 4.3
thousand. There were 7.2 thousand adoptions in 1991, and there has
been a long term decline in adoptions. Figure 11 shows the numbers of
adoptions by age group. There were slightly more adoptions of children
aged under five in 1999, compared to 1998, while adoptions of older
children continued to fall.
Winter 2000
Estimated proportion of the population over
16 by marital status, England and Wales,
1981–1998
Proportion of population
70
60
Married
MARRIAGES
There were 267 thousand marriages in England and Wales in 1998, five
thousand (1.9 per cent) fewer than in 1997, continuing the long term
decline in marriages. The first marriage rate has declined from 37.0
bachelors marrying per 1,000 single men aged 16 and over in 1991 to
27.5 in 1998, and from 46.6 spinsters marrying per 1,000 single women
in 1991 to 34.6 in 1998.
50
40
30
The number of marriages which were the first marriage for both
partners remained at the same level as 1997. The number of marriages
that were second or subsequent marriages for at least one partner
decreased from 116 thousand to 111 thousand.
20
One hundred and forty five thousand divorces were granted in England
and Wales in 1998, 1 per cent fewer than in 1997. This was the second
year in succession that the number of divorces has decreased. The
Figure 11
Number of adoptions in England and Wales,
1991–1999
Widowed
10
The average age at first marriage in 1998 was 29.8 for men and 27.7 for
women, a slight increase compared to 1997, in keeping with the trend
for the last ten years. The average age of remarriage was 42.4 for
divorced men and 39.3 for divorced women.
DIVORCES
Single
Divorced
0
1981
1984
1987
1990
Year
1993
1996
1998
divorce rate dropped to 12.9 per thousand married people, from 13.0 in
1997 this was the lowest figure since 1990. Average age at divorce rose
in 1998 to 40.4 for men and 37.9 for women from 40.2 for men and
37.7 in 1997. This is consistent with recent trends, and reflects the
increase in average age of marriage.
Fifty five per cent of divorcing couples had at least one child in 1998,
the same as in 1997. This is a drop from 60 per cent in 1981.
LEGAL MARITAL STATUS ESTIMATES
Number of adoptions (thousands)
Trends in the population by legal marital status are shown in Figure 12.
The proportion of married people over the age of 16 declined in England
and Wales from 54.3 per cent in 1997 to 53.7 per cent in 1998, giving a
married population of 22.4 million. In 1981, 63 per cent of the population
over 16 were married and in 1991, 58 per cent. The proportion of single
people increased to 29 per cent, while the proportion of divorcees went
up to 8.6 per cent and widows decreased to 8.5 per cent.
3
2.5
2
1–4
NOTES
5–9
1
1.5
1
10–14
0.5
2
15–17
Under 1
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
3
Net migration figures include flows into and from Scotland,
Northern Ireland and countries outside of the UK, including the
Irish Republic. The figures also include an adjustment for asylum
seekers, and for persons admitted as short term visitors who are
subsequently granted an extension of stay for other reasons, for
example as students or on the basis of marriage.
Changes in numbers of armed forces plus adjustments to reconcile
differences between estimated population change and the figures
for natural change and net civilian migration.
Pregnancies which lead to spontaneous abortions are not included
in the number of conceptions. Maternities which result in one or
more live birth or stillbirth are counted once only.
11
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
REFERENCES
1. Total Population
Mid-1999 population estimates: England and Wales. ONS Series
PE no.2, Office for National Statistics (2000).
2. Population Projections
National population projections: 1998-based. ONS Series PP2 no.
22, The Stationery Office (2000).
Shaw C. 1998-based national population projections for the United
Kingdom and constituent countries. Population Trends 99. The
Stationery Office (2000).
1996-based subnational population projections- England. ONS
Series PP3 no 10, The Stationery Office (1999).
3. International Migration
Population Trends 101, Table 1.7.
4. Internal Migration
Key population and vital statistics- local and health authority areas,
1998. ONS Series VS no. 25, PP1 no. 21, The Stationery Office
(1999).
5. Births
Birth Statistics, 1999. ONS Series FM1 no. 28, The Stationery
Office (2000).
6. Conceptions
Report: Conceptions in England and Wales, 1998. Population
Trends 99.
Population Trends 101, Table 4.1.
7. Deaths
Report: Death registrations 1999: cause England and Wales. Health
Statistics Quarterly 06, The Stationery Office (2000).
Population Trends 101. Table 6.1.
8. Life Expectancy
Population Trends 101. Table 5.1.
9. Abortions
Abortion statistics, 1999. ONS Series AB no. 26, The Stationery
Office (2000).
10. Marriages, divorces and adoptions
Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics, 1998. Series FM2 no. 26,
The Stationery Office (2000).
Report: Divorces in England and Wales during 1998. Population
Trends 98.
Report: Marriages in England and Wales during 1998. Population
Trends 99.
11. Population estimates by legal marital status
Population Trends 101, Table 1.6.
National Statistics
12
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Geographic variations in
conceptions to women
aged under 18 in Great
Britain during the 1990s
Clare Griffiths and Liz Kirby
Demography and Health
Office for National Statistics
This article examines geographic
variations in conceptions to women
aged under 18. It presents data on
conception rates and the percentage
leading to abortion for the three
countries of Great Britain, the
Government Office Regions of England
and local authorities within Great
Britain. It provides an overview of
variations between areas at each of the
three geographic levels and examines
whether this variation is associated
with the social and demographic
characteristics of local authority areas.
This article is the first occasion on
which conception rates for Scotland
have been published on a comparable
basis to England and Wales and also
the first use of the revised ONS
classification to examine conceptions
to women aged under 18.
INTRODUCTION
This article previews some of the material that will appear in the
forthcoming Decennial Supplement on geography and health. The
forthcoming volume will be broader in its focus than its predecessor
Mortality and Geography1 . It will cover not only mortality but also
fertility, congenital anomalies and cancer incidence. This article
summarises key findings on conceptions to women aged under 18 in the
1990s.
Teenage pregnancy is an issue that has been high on the policy agenda
in this country for some time. There have been concerns both at the
number of conceptions, the links with deprivation and the range of
adverse outcomes for both mother and child. Examples of these include
an increased likelihood of having a low birthweight baby2 and an
increased risk of sudden infant death syndrome3 compared to older
mothers. Children of teenage mothers are also more likely to be
admitted to hospital as a result of an accident than children of older
mothers4 . The longer-term outcomes also appear to be generally poorer,
with 41 per cent of teenage mothers having an episode of depression
within one year of childbirth, higher than for teenage girls in general5 ,
an increased likelihood of the child experiencing the divorce or
separation of its parents6 and an increased likelihood of the daughters
of teenage mothers becoming teenage mothers themselves7 . In June
1999 the Social Exclusion Unit published a report8 examining the scale
of and trends in teenage pregnancy and looking at approaches to tackle
the issue. Following the report a Teenage Pregnancy Unit was established at the Department of Health to co-ordinate action across
Government.
13
National Statistics
Statistics
National
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
A substantial amount of research has been carried out examining the
spatial distribution of teenage conceptions and factors associated with
this distribution. Work by Wood9 examining variation in England and
Wales using the previous ONS classification for health authorities10
showed that high under-age conception rates were found in the urban
and industrial authorities and also authorities in inner London. The
urban and industrial authorities also had high percentages of these
conceptions leading to a maternity. In contrast, low rates of teenage
conception were found in the most prosperous authorities and these
authorities also had the highest proportion of teenage conceptions
leading to abortion.
11
Wilson and colleagues found a clear north-south divide within
England when examining conception rates by Regional Health
Authority (RHA), with the northern regions having higher teenage
conception rates and a higher percentage leading to a maternity, and the
southern regions having lower rates and higher percentage leading to
abortion.
Evidence is also available to show the link between deprivation and
teenage pregnancy; a study of teenagers in Tayside12 showed that, using
the Carstairs-Morris index of deprivation, there is a high correlation
between deprivation and teenage conception rates. A strong relationship
between deprivation and teenage pregnancy has also been described for
the whole of Scotland, again using the Carstairs-Morris index13 .
Clements and colleagues14 examined teenage conception data for
Wessex RHA and found wide variation in conception rates by ward.
They found that, using a variety of deprivation indices, increasing
deprivation and urban residence was associated with increasing levels
of teenage pregnancy. The likelihood of a maternity increased as area
deprivation increased, but the study concluded that there was no
association between the outcome of a conception and urban residence,
once area deprivation had been taken into account.
Using the ONS Longitudinal Study, Sloggett and Joshi15 found that the
risk of teenage pregnancy was strongly associated with social deprivation of ward of residence in 1981, with a linear gradient. When they
made adjustment for personal disadvantage, this simple association
with local area deprivation was reduced, especially for girls living in
the more deprived areas. They concluded that the association with
deprived areas was due to the concentration of disadvantaged individuals in a deprived area and not to the effect of living in such an area.
This article provides further evidence of geographic inequalities in
conceptions to women aged under 18 at country, region and local
authority level during the 1990s. This article expands on previous work
by extending its focus to include the whole of Great Britain, with
conception rates for Scotland being produced on a comparable basis to
England and Wales for the first time and also examines the percentage
of these conceptions which lead to an abortion. It is also the first use of
the revised ONS classification to examine conceptions to women aged
under 18. The material to be published in the Decennial Supplement
will contain additional detail on trends in the 1990s, and analysis of
patterns of conception using the Carstairs-Morris index of deprivation.
The volume will also contain information on women aged 18 and over
and will analyse data on births and abortions in more detail.
METHODS AND DATA
Conception statistics in this article are compiled from:
•
•
live or still births (maternities), and
legal abortions under the Abortion Act 1967 (abortions).
Miscarriages and illegal abortions are not included, therefore the
figures will be an underestimate of the true number of conceptions.
National Statistics
14
Data for Scotland have been compiled by the Information and Statistics
Division (ISD). ISD routinely produce data on teenage pregnancies
which usually includes data on miscarriages, but these have been
excluded for the purposes of this analysis. The data for Scotland in this
article is derived from maternity discharge records and abortion
notifications, whereas in England and Wales birth registrations and
abortion notifications are used. Therefore, any births to Scottish
residents which occur at home are excluded. This accounts for about
0.5 per cent of all births.
For England and Wales data, the date of conception is estimated using
recorded gestation for abortions and stillbirths, and assuming 40 weeks
gestation for live births. For Scottish maternities, date of conception is
estimated from recorded gestation in 99.8 per cent of cases and
estimated gestation of 40 weeks is used in 0.2 per cent. Age at conception is then estimated from this date. This will lead to an underestimation of the age at conception in England and Wales compared to
Scotland. For all the abortions data, date of conception is estimated
from recorded gestation.
The data presented here exclude non-residents of Great Britain, and
also exclude conceptions to women usually resident in England or
Wales who gave birth or had an abortion in Scotland, and conceptions
to women usually resident in Scotland who gave birth or had an
abortion in England or Wales. This will not have a major impact on the
data presented in this article and does not affect the geographical
distribution of conception rates.
All rates presented in this article are expressed per 1,000 population of
women aged between 15 and 17.
All data have been allocated to local areas using the postcode of usual
residence and all data recast to 1999 boundaries. In England and Wales,
prior to 1992, the postcode of usual residence was not retained for
analysis once the administrative area information such as local
authority or health authority applicable at the time were derived. These
data cannot, therefore, be recast to the latest boundaries. Analysis in
this paper has therefore been restricted to 1992 onwards. Since a
temporary residence may sometimes be stated when attending for an
abortion instead of usual residence, conception figures calculated for
local authorities may be inflated in areas where non-residents attend for
abortion giving a temporary address as their address of usual residence16.
The Isles of Scilly and City of London have been excluded from the
analysis due to small numbers in their populations.
VARIATIONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES AND REGIONS
Of all the countries in Great Britain, Wales had the highest under 18
conception rate in 1992 to 1997 and Scotland had the lowest rate
(Figure 1). The northern regions of England had higher under 18
conception rates than Great Britain, in contrast to the South East, South
West and East of England regions, which had lower rates. Within the
midlands, the East Midlands had a similar rate to GB and the West
Midlands had a higher rate. The under 18 conception rate for London
was higher than in the other southern regions but lower than the rates in
the northern regions and West Midlands.
England had the highest percentage of conceptions leading to abortion
in Great Britain for under 18s (Figure 2). Within England, London had
a markedly higher percentage of conceptions leading to abortion than
the other regions. The northern regions had lower percentages of under
18 conceptions leading to abortion than the Great Britain average, and
the southern regions had higher percentages.
Population Trends 102
Figure 1
Winter 2000
Under 18 conception rates by country and region, Great Britain, 1992–97
Rate per 1,000
60
GB rate
50
40
30
20
10
0
England
Wales
Scotland
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
countries of Great Britain
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
Figure 2
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
regions of England
Percentage of under 18 conception leading to abortion by country and region, Great Britain, 1992–97
Percentage
60
GB percentage
50
40
30
20
10
0
England
Wales
Scotland
countries of Great Britain
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
regions of England
15
National Statistics
South
West
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
VARIATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES
The national and regional patterns described above mask wide variations among local authorities within each of the countries and regions,
with the highest rates in Great Britain being more than five times
greater than the lowest rates (Table 1). Southwark had the highest rate
in Great Britain as a whole (85.0) and the lowest rate was 15.4 in
Chiltern. The amount of variation within each country and region
varied. In Wales, the highest rate (in Merthyr Tydfil) was almost three
times greater than the lowest (in Monmouthshire), compared to the East
Midlands region of England where the rate in Nottingham was five
times larger than the rate in Rutland.
There was also wide variation between local authorities in the percentage of conceptions to women aged under 18 leading to abortion,
ranging from around 20 per cent in some authorities to almost 70 per
Table 1
cent in others. In most cases the highest percentages within each
country and region were more than double the lowest. Yorkshire and the
Humber region had the widest range, from 26.0 per cent in Bradford to
67.0 per cent in Ryedale, although the figure for Ryedale was substantially higher than the figure for any other local authority in the region.
London had the smallest range with the lowest percentage in Greenwich, 38.9 per cent, and the highest percentage in Kensington and
Chelsea, 61.7 per cent (Table 2).
Local authorities which had high conception rates also tended to be
those which had low percentages of conceptions leading to abortion,
although those in inner London did not follow this pattern, having both
high under 18 conception rates and high percentages leading to
abortion.
Variation in under 18 conception rates within countries and regions 1992–97
Rates per 1,000
Highest LA
England
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Rate
Southwark
Hartlepool
Manchester
Kingston-upon-Hull, City of
Nottingham
Sandwell
Great Yarmouth
Southwark
Southampton
Swindon
Merthyr Tydfil
Dundee City
85.0
70.4
74.2
77.4
79.7
65.4
57.9
85.0
61.2
54.9
74.7
78.2
Lowest LA
Chiltern
Tynedale
South Lakeland
Craven
Rutland
Malvern Hills
Uttlesford
Richmond-upon-Thames
Chiltern
East Dorset
Monmouthshire
East Renfrewshire
Rate
Ratio*
15.4
20.5
23.4
19.4
16.0
22.9
15.7
21.9
15.4
18.9
27.5
19.0
5.5
3.4
3.2
4.0
5.0
2.9
3.7
3.9
4.0
2.9
2.7
4.1
* ratio between the rate in the LA with the highest rate and the rate in the LA with the lowest rate
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
Table 2
Variation in the percentage of under 18 conceptions leading to abortion within countries and regions 1992–97
Highest LA
England
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Ryedale
Castle Morpeth
Congleton
Ryedale
South Northamptonshire
Bromsgrove
Rochford
Kensington and Chelsea
Wokingham
East Dorset
Ceredigion
Aberdeenshire
Percentage
67.0
46.9
53.8
67.0
57.3
56.0
64.1
61.7
66.8
66.0
50.2
50.9
Lowest LA
Manchester
Easington
Manchester
Bradford
Nottingham
Stoke-on-Trent
Norwich
Greenwich
Hastings
Kerrier
Merthyr Tydfil
West Dunbartonshire
* ratio between the percentage in the LA with the highest percentage and the percentage in the LA with the lowest percentage
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
National Statistics
16
Percentage
Ratio*
25.7
26.5
25.7
26.0
26.8
29.7
26.4
38.9
30.7
32.2
21.1
22.9
2.6
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.1
1.9
2.4
1.6
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.2
Population Trends 102
Map 1
Winter 2000
Under 18 conception rate by local authority, Great Britain, 1992–97
Conception rate
Very High
High
Low
Very Low
Not Significant
See Inset
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland.
17
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Map 2
Winter 2000
Percentage of under 18 conceptions leading to abortion by local authority, Great Britain, 1992–97
GB 1992-97
Percentage
Very High
High
Low
Very Low
Not Significant
See Inset
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland.
National Statistics
18
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Box one
Box two
Guide to the maps
‘The ONS classification of local and health authorities:
revised for authorities in 1999’ 17 is a general purpose
summary indicator of the characteristics of local
authorities in Great Britain. Based on 37 socioeconomic and demographic variables from the 1991
Census it groups authorities into Families, Groups and
Clusters by measuring similarities across the
classification variables. Details of the methods used
and the allocation of local authorities to Families,
Groups and Clusters can be found elsewhere 17,18 or on
our website at www.statistics.gov.uk
As there may only be a small number of conceptions to
women aged under 18 in any given local authority it is
particularly important to attach 90 per cent confidence
intervals to the conception rate and the percentage
leading to abortion. These maps are constructed using
the values for these confidence intervals. An authority
is:
●
●
●
Shaded orange if the confidence interval around the
rate or percentage excludes and is higher than the
confidence interval around the Great Britain value.
Therefore, all authorities shaded orange have
higher under 18 conception rates, or a higher
percentage leading to abortion, than Great Britain.
Those shaded orange are divided into two groups
with an equal number of authorities in each. Those
shaded dark orange have the highest rates or
percentages.
Shaded grey if the confidence interval around the
rate or percentage excludes and is lower than the
confidence interval around the Great Britain value.
Therefore, all authorities shaded grey have lower
under 18 conception rates, or a lower percentage
leading to abortion, than Great Britain. Those
shaded grey are divided into two groups with an
equal number of authorities in each. Those shaded
dark grey have the lowest rates or percentages.
Unshaded if the confidence interval around the rate
or percentage includes the Great Britain
confidence interval. These authorities either have
similar under 18 conception rates, or percentage
leading to abortion, to Great Britain as a whole, or
have large confidence intervals attached to their
rates or percentages as the number of conceptions
to under 18s in the authority is small.
In general across Great Britain at local authority level, conception rates
for under 18s were consistently high in urban areas in London, the
North West, south and west Yorkshire, North East, Birmingham and
south Wales and consistently low in rural and southern areas (Map 1).
The areas with percentages of conceptions leading to abortion higher
than the Great Britain level were in north Yorkshire, the Midlands and
South East of England, mainly in the areas surrounding London. The
areas with lower percentages were mainly found in south Wales, the
North East, the North West, west Yorkshire, south Yorkshire and
Glasgow and its surrounding area (Map 2). For both these measures,
however, it was possible to find authorities within close proximity
which had widely differing rates and percentages.
VARIATIONS USING THE ONS CLASSIFICATION OF LOCAL
AUTHORITIES
Within Great Britain, we have used the ONS classification of local
authorities as an indicator of the socio-demographic characteristics of
areas17 ,18 . Box two briefly describes the classification and the spatial
distribution of local authorities in each of the 15 Groups is shown in
Map 3.
The pattern of under 18 conceptions varied substantially by ONS
classification Group. The Growth Areas, Most Prosperous, Rural
Amenity and Remoter Rural Groups had low under 18 conception rates
and high percentages leading to abortion. The Coalfields, Manufacturing Centres, Ports and Industry and Established Service Centres
Groups had high under 18 conception rates and low percentages leading
to abortion (Figures 3, 4). There was very little overlap between the
rates and percentages between the LAs within these two sets of Groups.
The gap between the Most Prosperous and the Coalfields, Manufacturing Centres and Ports and Industry Groups was particularly marked for
the conception rate (Figures 5, 6).
All twenty of the local authorities classified as Most Prosperous had
“very low” under 18 conception rates (as defined on Map 1). The
characteristics of these areas include low unemployment, a high
proportion of those employed working in finance and service occupations, a high proportion of the population in Social Class I or II and a
high proportion of owner occupied housing.
Twenty-one local authorities classified as Coalfields, thirteen classified
as Manufacturing Centres and eight classified as Ports and Industry
had under 18 conception rates that are defined as “very high” on Map 1,
two thirds of all the authorities shown as having “very high” rates. The
characteristics of these areas include high unemployment, a large
proportion of the population in Social Class IV and V and a high
proportion of terraced housing and social housing.
Unusual patterns were seen in London, with both West Inner London
and East Inner London having above average conception rates and
percentages of conceptions leading to abortion. In East Inner London
the conception rate was the highest in Great Britain (70.4), and in West
Inner London the percentage of conceptions leading to abortion was the
highest (52.2 per cent). Characteristics associated with the East Inner
London Group include a large ethnic minority population, large
families, high unemployment and a high percentage of lone parent
households. Characteristics of the West Inner London Group include a
high level of employment in finance and services and low levels of
manufacturing and production, a large proportion of single person of
working age households, a mobile and relatively affluent population
and a high proportion of people living in privately rented accommodation.
The variation within ONS classification Groups was much less marked
than within countries and regions. The widest variation was in the
Education Centres and Outer London Group for the conception rate,
with Lewisham having an under 18 conception rate just over three
times greater than Richmond-upon-Thames. This Group is also one of
the least homogeneous in terms of the Census characteristics which
describe it, for example large numbers of students, high levels of
employment in finance and services and higher than average levels of
private renting, purpose built flats and terraced houses. The least
19
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Map 3
Winter 2000
The ONS classification of local authorities: the fifteen Groups
Rural Amenity
Remoter Rural
Established Manufacturing Fringe
New and Developing Areas
Mixed Urban
Coast and Country Resorts
Established Service Centres
Growth Areas
Most Prosperous
Coalfields
Manufacturing Centres
Ports and Industry
Education Centres and Outer London
West Inner London
East Inner London
See Inset
National Statistics
20
Population Trends 102
Figure 3
Winter 2000
Under 18 conception rates by ONS classification Group, Great Britain, 1992–97
Rate per 1,000
GB rate
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Remoter Established New and
Rural
Manufact- Developing Areas
uring
Fringe
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
Rural
Amenity
Figure 4
Mixed
Urban
West
Most
Coalfields ManufactPorts Education
Coast Established Growth
Inner
Service
Areas Prosperous
uring
and
Centres
and
Centres Industry and Outer London
Country Centres
London
Resorts
East
Inner
London
Percentage of under 18 conceptions leading to abortion by ONS classification Group, Great Britain, 1992–97
Percentage
60
GB percentage
50
40
30
20
10
0
Remoter Established New and
Rural
Manufact- Developing Areas
uring
Fringe
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
Rural
Amenity
Mixed
Urban
West
Ports Education
Most
Coalfields ManufactCoast Established Growth
Inner
Centres
and
Areas Prosperous
uring
Service
and
Centres Industry and Outer London
Country Centres
London
Resorts
21
National Statistics
East
Inner
London
Population Trends 102
Figure 5
Winter 2000
Under 18 conception rates by local authority within ONS classification Group, Great Britain, 1992–97
Rate per 1,000
90
80
1
1
70
1
1
60
50
40
30
20
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
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1
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1
1
1
1
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1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
10
0
Rural
Amenity
Mixed
Urban
New
Remoter Established
and
Rural
Manufacturing Developing
Areas
Fringe
Most
Coalfields ManufactCoast Established Growth
Service
Areas Prosperous
uring
and
Centres
Country Centres
Resorts
Ports
Education
and
Centres
Industry and Outer
London
West
Inner
London
East
Inner
London
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
Figure 6
Percentage of under 18 conceptions leading to abortion by local authority within ONS classification Group,
Great Britain, 1992–97
Percentage
90
80
70
1
60
50
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
40
1
30
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
20
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
10
0
Rural
Amenity
Remoter Established
New
Rural
Manufactand
uring Developing
Fringe
Areas
Mixed
Urban
Source: ONS, ISD Scotland
National Statistics
22
Coast Established Growth
Most
Coalfields Manufactand
Service
Areas Prosperous
uring
Country Centres
Centres
Resorts
Ports
Education
and
Centres
Industry and Outer
London
West
Inner
London
East
Inner
London
Population Trends 102
variation was in the Manufacturing Centres group, with Sandwell
having a rate approximately one and a half times higher than Kirklees.
The widest variation in the percentage of conceptions leading to
abortion was in the Remoter Rural Group, where the percentage in
Ryedale was just over two times greater than the percentage in the
Orkney Islands. The least variation was in East Inner London and West
Inner London, where the highest percentage was 30 per cent greater
than the lowest. There was also little variation in the percentage of
under 18 conceptions leading to abortion in the Manufacturing Centres
and Ports and Industry Groups.
CONCLUSIONS
Wales had the highest under 18 conception rate of the countries of
Great Britain. Scotland had both a lower under 18 pregnancy rate than
the Great Britain rate and a lower percentage leading to abortion.
England had an average under 18 conception rate and the highest
percentage leading to abortion.
The analysis of conceptions to women aged under 18 by Government
Office Region within England in this article confirms earlier findings of
a north-south divide, with higher under 18 conception rates and lower
percentages leading to abortion in the northern regions of England than
in the southern regions of England. London does not fit into this
pattern, as it had both high under 18 conception rates and high percentages leading to abortion.
Key findings
●
Wales had the highest under 18 conception rate of
the countries of Great Britain and England had the
highest percentage leading to abortion. Scotland
had both lower than average under 18 conception
rates, and percentage of conceptions leading to
abortion.
●
There was a north-south divide within England in
under 18 conception rates at regional level, with
higher rates in the northern regions of England
than in the southern regions. London did not fit
this pattern, as it had high under 18 conception
rates and high percentages of conceptions leading
to abortion. The percentage of under 18
conceptions leading to abortion was much higher
in London than elsewhere in Great Britain.
●
Differences in under 18 conception rates by local
authority within Wales, Scotland and the regions of
England were greater than differences between the
countries and regions themselves.
●
Under 18 conception rates in the local authority
with the highest rate within Great Britain,
Southwark, were over five times greater than in the
local authority with the lowest rate, Chiltern.
●
High under 18 conception rates and high
percentages leading to a maternity were found in
areas classified as urban and industrial, whereas
low under 18 conception rates and high
percentages leading to abortion were found in
areas classified as rural and prosperous.
Winter 2000
The variation by local authority across Great Britain also confirms
findings from other studies that the highest levels of teenage pregnancy
in Great Britain tend to be in urban and industrial areas and the lowest
rates tend to be in rural and prosperous areas. This analysis also
confirms that in general more prosperous areas have higher percentages
of teenage conceptions leading to abortion and less prosperous areas
tend to have higher percentages leading to a maternity. Both conception
rates and percentages leading to abortion were particularly high in inner
London.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors wish to acknowledge the work of the Information and
Statistics Division in Scotland in preparing the Scottish conception data
used in this article.
Correspondence to:
Clare Griffiths
e–mail: [email protected]
REFERENCES
1. Britton M. (ed.) Mortality and Geography. A Review in the mid
1980s. England and Wales. HMSO (London:1990).
2. Botting B, Rosato M and Wood R. Teenage mothers and the health
of their children. Population Trends 93 (1998), 19–28.
3. National Statistics. Report: Sudden infant deaths 1999. Health
Statistics Quarterly 07 (2000), 66–70.
4. Peckham S. Preventing unplanned teenage pregnancies. Public
Health 107 (1993), 125–133.
5. Wilson J. Maternity Policy. Caroline: a case of a pregnant teenager.
Professional Care of Mother and Child 5(5) (1995), 139–142.
6. Clarke L, Joshi H, Di Salvo P and Wright J. Stability and instability
in children’s family lives: longitudinal evidence from two British
sources. Centre for Population Studies Research Paper 97–1. City
University (London: 1997).
7. Di Salvo P. Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility in England
and Wales. Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the
requirements of the MSc in Medical Demography. London School
of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (1992).
8. Social Exclusion Unit. Teenage Pregnancy. The Stationery Office
(London: 1999).
9. Wood R. Subnational variations in conceptions. Population Trends
84 (1996), 21–27.
10. Wallace M and Denham C. The ONS Classification of local and
health authorities of Great Britain. Series SMPS no. 59. HMSO
(London: 1996)
11. Wilson S H, Brown, T P and Richards, R G. Teenage conception
and contraception in the English regions. Journal of Public Health
Medicine 14 (1992), 17–25.
12. Smith T. Influence of socio-economic factors on attaining targets
for reducing teenage pregnancies. British Medical Journal 306
(1993), 1232–1235.
13. Information and Statistics Division. Teenage Pregnancy in Scotland
1987–1996. Health Briefing 98/01 (Edinburgh: 1998).
14. Clements S, Stone N, Diamond I and Ingham R. Modelling the
spatial distribution of teenage conception rates within Wessex. The
British Journal of Family Planning 24 (1998), 61–71.
15. Sloggett A and Joshi H. Deprivation indicators as predictors of life
events, 1981–1992 based on the ONS Longitudinal Study. Journal
of Epidemiology and Community Health 52 (1998), 228–233.
16. Office for National Statistics. Series AB. Abortion Statistics,
England and Wales.
17. Office for National Statistics. The ONS classification of local and
health authorities of Great Britain: revised for authorities in 1999.
Series SMPS no. 63. Office for National Statistics (London 1999).
18. Bailey S, Charlton J, Dollamore G and Fitzpatrick J. Families,
Groups and Clusters of local and health authorities: revised for
authorities in 1999. Population Trends 99 (2000), 37–52.
23
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Children’s Family Change:
Reports and Records of
Mothers, Fathers and
Children compared
Lynda Clarke
London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicne
Heather Joshi
Institute of Education and
Pamela Di Salvo
formerly City University.*
INTRODUCTION
Family change, when adults
depart or arrive around children,
raises policy issues. Its measurement depends upon the
evidence collected and from
whom. This paper compares
British children’s histories
obtained from fathers and
mothers. The evidence, on one
birth cohort of parents, comes
from two sources: the National
Child Development Study and
the ONS Longitudinal Study. The
resulting account of family
change is not substantially
different between parents.
There is some under-reporting of
children not living with their
fathers. This is due to underreporting by those included in
the studies and to under-representation in them of absent
fathers and lone parents.
The changing demography of the family makes its definition
increasingly difficult. The composition of families, taken as a couples
with or without children, can be expected to change in the normal
course of events as children come and go, but it would traditionally
have been expected that the two parents maintain a continuous stable
presence. Changes in relationship and childbearing patterns, as well as
an increased likelihood of family breakup, mean that families are
becoming more diverse in terms of co-residence and the location of
natural parents and children1 .
This paper investigates family change in terms of the departure and
arrival of adults in families with children. It has a methodological aim
to see whether the measurement of family change differs according to
the perspective from which it is recorded - the mother or the father and to the data used. It triangulates the perspectives on family change
provided by one group of parents, those born in 1958. It draws on the
complementary strengths of two different longitudinal data sets: the
National Child Development Study (NCDS) of people born in one week
in March 1958, and the registration to census linked data of the ONS
Longitudinal Study (LS), which provided a sample of people born at
any time in 1958 who had children who were born into the LS. Family
type is classified as a child in a two-parent family (distinguishing
married from cohabiting and whether living with both natural parents or
one natural and one step-parent) or in a one-parent family. Family
change is defined as a change in the family type of residence of a child.
Where children are not all living with both their natural parents, reports
on their family history may differ according to the parent giving the
information. A parent living apart from a child may not know the
National
National Statistics
Statistics
24
Population Trends 102
current situation of that child, and may not even report his/her
existence. Mothers are more likely to be living with all of their natural
children, and therefore give a more complete account of their children’s
living arrangements than fathers. These considerations also have policy
implications. For example, an assessment of the feasibility and
practicability of child support legislation requires some estimation of
the number of absent fathers who are in second families. These
different measures of family change also will have important planning
applications, for example in the demand for housing after family
breakdown. Different perspectives on this might be obtained from lone
mothers, mothers who have remarried, started another cohabitation or
from fathers living alone or in a second partnership.
Studies of the demographics of family change have largely been
conducted with fertility and marital histories collected from women.
Usually the focus is on the woman/mother as the unit of analysis2
although some studies, have acknowledged the perspective of the child
in both the USA3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and in Great Britain11. In France, Leridon and
Gokalp12 analysed the family biographies of couples and of children
from the same survey. Very few studies, however, have explored the
fertility histories of men13,14,15. This paper explores some of the
differences in the reporting of family change in Britain by comparing
family formation (and dissolution) histories collected for both men and
women in two very different longitudinal datasets. How consistent is
the measurement of family change obtained from different family
members? Careful assessment of the validity of these different
measures of family change should be required for their use in
substantive studies and for policy purposes. Such an assessment is
offered here.
DATA ON FAMILY CHANGE
A specific sample of parents will be used for the exercise. These will be
parents born in 1958. In Britain two very rich data sources record
family change from more than one perspective. One is the National
Child Development Study (NCDS), a cohort study following the people
born during a week in March 1958, and the other source is the Office
for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (LS), which links census
records (beginning with 1971) with vital registration data for 1 per cent
of the population of England and Wales born on four selected birthdays
(Hattersley and Creeser, 1995)16. Children born on these dates, from
1981, to parents born (at any time) in 1958 will form a sample for this
paper. In both cases the most recent evidence comes from 1991.
NCDS members were interviewed in 1991 at age 3317. Fertility and
marital histories were collected for both the men and the women, as also
at age 23. In 1991 they were asked the whereabouts of each live born
child. Data from the cohort has the advantage over other data, for
example the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) or the General
Household Survey, because of its very large sample size. It has an
inherent drawback in that the children, whose living arrangements are
reported, are not a representative sample of all children. They all have a
parent aged 33. Older children had a younger parent at the time they were
born, and no child born to a cohort member over 33 could be included.
In the LS family situation at birth is shown in the registration of births
on sample birth date. It may be registered in marriage by two parents;
jointly by two parents who are not married; or by the mother only, also
outside marriage. Joint registration outside marriage is allowed only if
the father is present at the registration or sends a legal declaration of
fatherhood. Changes in family status from birth to a subsequent
censuses for these LS members can be detected by comparing the
number of parents, and their dates of birth at registration and census. In
this paper we concentrate on births in the decade preceding 1991. Other
papers have analysed changes in family circumstances in this way for
all new LS members.18,19. In this paper we consider only those who have
at least one parent born in 1958 in order to compare them with the
NCDS sample of children. Thus this LS sample of children shares the
Winter 2000
unavoidable peculiarity in the NCDS sample mentioned above, that of
the relationship between age of child and age of parent at birth. In
neither source are the children demographically representative of
children in general. LS entrants to the study after 1978 have 3,770
fathers who were born in the 52 weeks of 1958 and 4,083 mothers.
About 500 LS members had both parents born in 1958. This last
category of LS children is analysed twice, once for each parent.
Neither of these data sources is expected to be completely reliable. In
the NCDS the 11,407 interviews carried out in 1991 represented only
73 per cent of the cohort members known to be living in Great Britain
and not to have refused at an earlier stage to take part in the survey. The
remainder were lost in tracing or those with whom an interview was not
obtained during fieldwork20. The people who were not interviewed may
have had children with different histories to those which are covered.
The histories collected in the NCDS are self-completed and
retrospective, which introduces measurement error, especially in
relation to recall of past partnerships21. Children living apart from their
cohort member parent are thought to be under-reported and, for those
that are reported, any changes since they parted from their parent are
not known. Also, if the cohort member is with the child at the time of
the interview in 1991 then any previous separations were not probed.
The LS, on the other hand, does not ‘capture’ any fathers of solely
registered births, and it does not succeed in matching all cases to the
census (see Appendix). We are only able to analyse the 90 per cent of
births that were found at the following census, ‘usually resident’ at the
address of enumeration. A few cases were enumerated elsewhere, had
died or were known to have emigrated, but the majority of the excluded
cases are linkage failures. Common reasons for this are: nonenumeration at census, incorrect birth dates, unreported emigration and
changes of address or name. Not surprisingly, births outside marriage,
particularly those registered solely by the mother, are less well linked.
However, the sole registrations also show proportionately more deaths,
emigrations and enumerations as a visitor. Multiple changes in family
circumstances between birth and census or between censuses are also
not captured. As these data sources have different strengths and
weakness, we seek to explore how each may complement the other’s
shortcomings.
DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES ON FAMILY CHANGE
The NCDS: Mothers and Fathers Compared
It is usually assumed that fertility histories collected from men suffer
from under-reporting of absent children because knowledge of fathering
is less easily established or remembered than motherhood. The extent
of this under-reporting is difficult to establish15. Coleman14 notes that
registration-based studies, such as the LS, cannot trace solely-registered
births outside marriage to the natural father, however, he expresses
some hope that panel or cohort studies may help to complete a picture
of male fertility. By examining the different fertility patterns of men
and women in the NCDS, we hope to answer some of the concerns
raised about histories of children collected from men.
In the interviews with NCDS members at age 33, data were collected
on 9,334 children from 4,428 mothers and on 7,348 children from 3,704
fathers. That there are more mothers than fathers and more children per
mother reported (2.11) than per father (1.98) does not necessarily mean
that the men were under-reporting their fertility. This would reflect also
differential timing of fertility between men and women, with women
being closer to completing their fertility at age 33 than men. We return
to this point below.
The family situation of children at the time of birth and that reported
for children of different age groups in 1991 by mothers in NCDS is
shown in Table 1a and by NCDS members who were fathers in Table 1b.
25
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
The family types distinguished in 1991 are two-parent families, lone
mother families and children away from their natural mother, which
includes lone father families. The final column of Tables 1a and b
summarises the percentage of all children not in an ‘intact’ family, in
other words living with both of their natural parents. Under 10 per cent of
children born in the last two years were not living with both natural
parents compared with over half (59.5 per cent and 51.9 per cent) of the
children aged over 14 years. The proportion is also lower for the children
born to married parents than in other family circumstances. Within the
two-parent families, a child is deemed as being in an ‘intact’: family
when he/she is living with both natural parents, irrespective of the
presence of half or step siblings. The penultimate column of these tables
shows the percentage of children not in step-families. Step-families are
more common for the older children (in this sample) whose parents were
not married at the birth.
Tables 1a & 1b show that overall women are more likely than men to
report children who were not living with both natural** parents in 1991,
particularly if the child was born outside marriage.
However in this cohort, births outside marriage are relatively
uncommon, so this difference is not great. Men most frequently report
births which occurred outside any partnership when the child is living
with both their father and mother in 1991, except for the youngest
Table 1a
group of children. This supports the assumption that men may be
denying or unaware of other fatherhoods of older children. Most of the
differences between men and women in respect of the number of
children reported occur for the oldest and youngest children. Among
children aged 14 and over, 8 per cent fewer children are reported by
men as not being with both natural parents, while among those aged 1013 years and aged 0–2 years there is a 4 per cent difference. For the
group of children in the middle age ranges (3–5 years and 6–9 years)
the overall difference in the reporting of children who were not with
two natural parents is negligible at around 1 or 2 per cent.
Looking at the detail of family situation in 1991, it can be seen that
children of all ages living with lone mothers were more likely to be
reported by women than men. The greatest differences between men
and women occur where the child was born outside a partnership: in
most of the age groups women were twice as likely as men to describe
such a child to be living with a lone mother. Although living away from
the natural mother was relatively uncommon, men were more likely to
report children in this situation than women - men were more likely to
report children living with lone fathers (Figure 1). This could have
arisen if women under-report absent children (as do fathers),
particularly those living with a lone father, or because of the omission
by fathers of children in the other categories, such as adoptions.
NCDS Cohort Members who were Mothers: Famial Situation at birth and in 1991 of children reported
Situation in 1991
Situation at birth
by age of child
in 1991
in Two parent family
in Lone
mother
family %
Apart from
birth
mother %
Base
Numbers
(N)
% of two
parent families
intact
% not with
two natural
parents
married %
Age 0–2 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
97.8
23.1
0.0
0.2
66.7
12.0
1.9
10.2
88.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
1,363
147
50
97.0
94.7
66.7
4.9
15.0
92.0
All
87.6
6.9
5.4
0.1
1,560
96.7
8.7
Age 3–5 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
93.6
36.9
8.1
1.5
50.3
12.9
4.8
11.4
77.4
0.1
1.3
1.6
1,879
149
62
96.8
91.5
69.2
7.9
20.1
85.5
All
87.0
5.4
7.4
0.2
2,090
96.3
11.1
Age 6–9 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
87.9
48.9
30.2
3.7
30.4
17.7
7.7
17.9
47.9
0.7
2.7
4.2
2,643
184
96
92.3
81.5
30.4
15.4
35.3
85.4
All
83.6
5.8
9.7
0.9
2,923
90.6
19.0
Age 10–13 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
78.7
52.2
45.8
8.0
19.5
16.3
11.1
23.3
27.7
2.2
5.0
10.2
1,693
159
166
79.6
70.2
24.3
31.0
49.7
84.9
All
73.9
9.6
13.4
3.1
2,018
75.6
36.9
Age 14+ years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
70.0
50.9
47.1
10.1
13.2
10.8
14.1
18.9
21.0
5.8
17.0
21.0
377
53
157
61.9
50.0
37.4
50.4
67.9
78.3
All
62.2
10.6
16.4
10.9
587
55.7
59.5
cohabiting %
Source: NCDS
National Statistics
26
Population Trends 102
Table 1b
Winter 2000
NCDS Cohort Members who were Fathers: Famial Situation at birth and in 1991 of children reported
Situation in 1991
Situation at birth
by age of child
in 1991
in Two parent family
in Lone†
mother
family %
Apart from
birth
mother %
Base
Numbers
(N)
% of two
parent families
intact
% not with
two natural
parents
married %
Age 0–2 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
98.3
12.2
16.1
0.5
83.3
16.1
1.1
4.5
48.4
0.1
0.0
19.4
1,563
156
31
97.9
98.0
50.0
3.3*
6.4*
83.9
All
89.1
8.2
2.2
0.5
1,750
97.6
5.0**
Age 3–5 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
93.8
37.2
30.2
1.5
50.4
25.6
3.4
12.4
23.3
1.2
0.0
20.9
1,905
129
43
97.2
93.8
70.8
7.2
17.8
60.5**
All
89.0
5.0
4.3
1.5
2,077
96.7
9.0*
Age 6–9 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
86.7
45.0
41.7
4.2
37.1
25.0
7.0
15.0
33.3
2.0
2.9
0.0
2,059
140
60
92.2
85.2
52.5
16.2
30.0
65.0**
All
83.0
6.8
7.2
2.0
2,259
91.0
18.3
Age 10–13 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
80.5
47.4
51.4
6.7
26.3
17.6
9.5
21.1
21.6
3.3
5.3
9.5
845
76
74
80.9
66.1
60.8
29.5
51.3
58.1**
All
75.8
9.0
11.3
3.9
995
78.7
33.3
Age 14+ years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
69.0
44.4
58.5
6.0
33.3
9.2
17.9
11.1
18.5
7.1
11.1
13.8
84
9
65
74.6
57.1
56.8
44.0
55.6
61.5**
All
63.3
8.9
17.7
10.1
158
66.7
51.9
cohabiting %
Source: NCDS
† includes partnership status of mother unknown: (N= 0 aged 0–2 yrs; N=4 aged 3–5 yrs; N=19 aged 6–9yrs; N=13 aged 10–13 yrs; N=8 aged 14+yrs.)
* significantly less than women at the p<0.05 level.
** significantly less than women at the p<0.01 level.
Figure 1
NCDS Children apart from their mothers in 1991: Where were they?
Men
35.6%
Women
1.4%
56.7%
3.1%
24.3%
16.3%
26.8%
10.2%
16.3%
7.4%
Institution
lone father
adopted/fostered
relatives
27
Unknown
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
NCDS: Mothers and Children
Some authors have argued that family change should be evaluated from
the perspective of the child3. In cross-sectional data there may be
different incidences of certain experiences according to whether it is the
adults or the children who are counted. For example, in 1991 around 7
per cent of female members of the NCDS cohort who were mothers
were lone parents17, but nearly 10 per cent [9.7] of their offspring were
found living with a lone mother. The approach of comparing childbased files with woman - (or man-) based numbers is not pursued here.
The absence of complete information on the living arrangements
history of children living apart from their cohort-member parent in
1991 precludes this. Instead we explore child records created from their
mother’s partnership history. Figure 2 follows a subset of NCDS
mothers’ children who were born in selected years, i.e., by age of
mother at birth, given that the mothers were all born in 1958. The graph
shows the percentage of these children who are living with two natural
parents at each age, according to when they were born, in other words
their mother’s age at their birth. Among children who were born to
mothers over the age of 20 years, who form the majority of all children,
more than 90 per cent lived with two natural parents until at least four
years of age. Children born to mothers who were teenagers at their birth
were much less likely to be living with two natural parents at any age.
Figure 2
Children of NCDS mothers in 1991: per cent
with two natural parents by age of mother at
birth
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
0
The concept of an ‘intact’ family is not straightforward from the
woman’s perspective. While each child can either live with both natural
parents or not, a woman can have several children. She may live with
all of her own children but these children may have different fathers.
Many studies on family change focus on a woman’s experience of lone
motherhood, which avoids this conceptual problem, but the two
perspectives are not really comparable. For this exercise, a woman’s
Table 2a
2
4
6
8
Child’s age
10
12
14
Year of birth and age of mother at birth
1974 (age 16)
1983 (age 25)
1977 (age 19)
1986 (age 28)
1980 (age 22)
Familial Situation in 1991 of NCDS mother’s first born children by age of mother at birth
Situation in 1991
Situation at birth
age of mother
at first birth
in Two parent family
married %
cohabiting %
in Lone
mother
family %
Apart from
birth
mother %
Base
Numbers
(N)
% of two
parent families
intact
% not with
two natural
parents
Age 27 to 33 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
95.5
32.7
8.5
0.8
54.0
19.1
3.8
13.3
70.2
0.0
0.0
2.1
1,190
113
47
98.6
93.9
53.8
5.1
18.6
85.1
All
87.2
5.9
6.9
0.1
1,350
97.8
9.0
Age 23 to 26 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
89.8
57.9
31.6
2.9
25.0
14.0
6.7
14.5
50.9
0.6
2.6
3.5
1,260
76
57
93.8
77.8
38.5
13.0
35.5
82.5
All
85.6
4.6
8.9
0.9
1,393
91.9
17.1
Age 20 to 22 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
81.2
47.2
49.5
7.5
20.8
16.8
10.3
23.6
27.4
0.9
8.3
6.3
773
72
95
81.6
71.4
30.2
27.6
51.4
80.0
All
75.4
9.5
13.1
2.0
940
76.9
34.7
Age 19 years and under:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
71.1
52.6
47.2
9.6
14.0
11.9
13.7
17.5
21.0
5.7
15.8
19.9
439
57
176
63.8
52.6
36.5
48.5
64.9
78.4
All
63.2
10.6
15.9
10.3
672
57.3
57.7
Source: NCDS
National Statistics
28
Population Trends 102
Table 2b
Winter 2000
Familial Situation in 1991 of NCDS mother’s first second and subsequent children by age of mother at first birth
Situation in 1991
Situation at birth
age of mother
at first birth
in Two parent family
married %
cohabiting %
in Lone
mother
family %
Apart from
birth
mother %
Base
Numbers
(N)
% of two
parent families
intact
% not with
two natural
parents
Age 27 to 33 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
97.3
16.7
0.0
0.5
76.7
14.3
2.0
6.7
85.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
741
30
7
97.2
92.9
100.0
4.9
13.3
85.7
All
93.3
3.6
3.0
0.1
778
97.1
5.9
Age 23 to 26 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
92.9
45.5
16.7
1.7
43.6
0.0
4.9
7.3
83.3
0.5
3.6
0.0
1,501
55
18
96.5
85.7
0.0
8.7
23.6
100.0
All
90.4
3.2
5.8
0.6
1,574
95.9
10.2
Age 20 to 22 years:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
85.1
37.8
18.0
5.7
44.5
24.0
8.8
14.3
58.0
0.4
3.4
0.0
1,141
119
50
88.3
88.8
19.0
19.8
26.9
92.0
All
78.2
9.9
11.1
0.7
1,310
87.1
23.2
Age 19 years and under:
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
78.8
40.6
25.0
6.7
37.6
10.0
11.4
21.2
51.3
3.1
0.6
13.8
911
170
80
78.9
82.0
17.9
32.5
35.9
93.8
All
69.5
11.5
15.6
3.4
1161
77.6
37.2
Source: NCDS
experience of motherhood is approximated by equating her ‘history’
with that of her first child. The child’s history can be constructed from
the experience of a mother on the assumption that a mother remains
with her child. We define the first child excluding any given away in
adoption. A mother is then said to be in an ‘intact’ family whenever her
‘first’ child is living with both natural parents, even if she is a stepmother to a previous child of the father. When defined this way, the
picture of a woman’s experience is not visibly different from that of
children in this exercise. This may be because the cohort was only 33
years of age in 1991 and their family building histories were not
complete. In fact, in general, the experience of family type by all the
NCDS children was not so different from the experience of their
mothers as 47 per cent of all children considered were first born
children. However, if we separate children according to their birth order
we find some striking differences (Table 2b).
Tables 2a and 2b show the proportion of children reported by NCDS
mothers in different family types in 1991 and by their mother’s
partnership status at their birth. More first-born children than children
of higher birth orders were not living with two natural parents in 1991,
regardless of the age of their mother. There are various reasons for this
difference between first and subsequent children. The first child is more
likely to be in a lone mother family or in a step-family. In two parent
families, the difference between first and subsequent children is
greatest where the mother’s first birth was before the age of 22. It
should be remembered that first-born children to younger mothers in
this cohort sample would be older and thus had more time to experience
family change. It is interesting to see evidence that some mothers who
had had a child outside a relationship had been joined by the natural
father at some stage after the birth. This was most common for the
oldest children (who had mothers aged under 23 years): over half of
such first-born children and over a third of subsequent children had
been joined by their fathers since their birth. If we identify the mother
with her oldest (first-born) child, it is only later born children whose
histories may diverge from their mothers. In these truncated histories
those born more recently had experienced less family change.
Mothers’ and Fathers’ Reports of Family Change: the
LS and NCDS Compared
When examining multiple perspectives of family change the data used
can be critical to the exercise. The NCDS allows more detail and can
supplement the two time points linked in the larger and more generally
representative sample of the LS. The NCDS as an interview study,
however, may be expected to be subject to more omission and bias than
a record linkage study, such as the LS. A comparison of the data from
these two sources will allow a fuller picture of the reliability of the
different viewpoints
The LS does suffer some attrition and incomplete coverage but the
omissions arise in different ways to the NCDS. Do they impart different
sorts of bias? Linkage of birth to census problems in the LS occurred in 7
per cent of cases where the birth was within marriage, 11 per cent of joint
registrations outside marriage, and 12 per cent of sole (mother-only)
registrations (Appendix). The linkage success rate from two-parent births
was essentially the same for children of men born in 1958 as for the
children of women born in that year. In NCDS, up to 27 per cent of
potential respondents were not interviewed in 1991. The sample in NCDS
is slightly biased towards women, with fewer men being interviewed
(49.2 per cent) than expected (51.2 per cent)17. The family situation for
the vast majority of children born to parents born in 1958 can be
determined in both data sources (less than 2 per cent could not be
determined in the LS and less than 1 per cent in NCDS) once records
have been linked, in the case of the LS, or once a parent has been
successfully interviewed, in the case of NCDS.
29
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
are also likely, in small degree to be omitted from the census and LS.
The results for children aged 10 and over in 1991 are not shown. They
are similar to those for children aged under 10 years.
Table 3 shows the family status for children aged 0–9 in 1991 for LS
members born to parents who were born in 1958 and children aged 0–9
of NCDS parents in 1991 by their family status at birth. In the LS,
which does not rely on self-reporting, the ratio of births to women
versus births to men born in 1958 is 1.08. The ratio is the same in
NCDS, which appears to support the idea that the different number of
births to men and women arises from the differential timing of births
for men and women. However, the LS misses the fathers of solely
registered babies. Evidence about differential reporting of absent
children can only be taken from cases with two parents at the birth
registration. Of children born in marriage to NCDS men, 4.1 per cent
were reported by these fathers to be in lone mother families compared
to 8 per cent traced by the LS. This difference of 4 per cent is
significant, though small, and could be consistent with under-reporting
of NCDS children. However Table 3 also shows a similar deficit for
mothers, though smaller at around 2 per cent which is more likely to be
due to survey loss. These results suggest that the 4 per cent deficit for
men is a result of both under-reporting and a lack of tracing. In the case
of fathers who were cohabiting at the child’s birth in NCDS, 10.4 per
cent of children were reported away from the father with a lone mother,
compared with one third (32.3 per cent) of children in the LS born to
fathers born in 1958 and who were jointly registered at birth. While this
could reflect under-reporting, it might also be affected by some jointlyregistering parents in the LS who were not living together, particularly
as a similar difference is evident for women. Among female NCDS
cohort members there is also a deficit of children living apart from
them in 1991. This is particularly true for women who had a birth
outside a relationship. Again, this is most likely due to both underreporting of absent children and difficulties in survey response. The
percentage of children living in two-parent families which were intact
is similar in the two sources, but is slightly lower in NCDS. These
differences are likely reflect a difficulty in contacting NCDS cohort
members who are not living in stable family situations. Such families
Table 3
In summary, the LS results suggest that the NCDS provides a roughly
representative estimate of the family structures experienced by the
children of this cohort, apart from a relative under-representation of
children in lone mother families. They are likely to be underrepresented in both sources. Both sources agree that step-parent
families are relatively rare among children under 10 (with parents aged
33) though the NCDS with its explicit questions finds a percentage
point or two more of two-parent families are not ‘intact’.
Finally, these two data sources are very different for one important
reason. The LS can only provide information on family change that is
evident from birth to census. To complete the picture on family change
in the intervening period we can resort to the NCDS. Table 4 highlights
some of the changes in family circumstance which cannot be observed
in the LS. The proportions of children who had ever experienced living
in a lone parent family (as far as can be determined by the NCDS
member’s history) was 17.5 per cent by 1991, twice the proportion who
were in a lone parent at the time of the survey. Among those aged under
10, the proportion who had ever lived in a lone parent family was 11
per cent, against 7 per cent currently. Thus 4 per cent of the children
(over half those currently with a lone mother) had been in lone parent
families (including being born into them) but had moved into other
family types before 1991. These children were mainly in step-families.
Slightly fewer children (10 per cent) had experienced living in a stepfamily, which is not much higher than the proportion found in the 1991
cross-section. There was not much evidence of multiple change in stepfamilies, which would be undetected by the LS. Among children under
10 we found only 0.2 per cent who had experienced living in more than
one step-family. Therefore, at least for step-families, there is not much
Children’s family situation at birth and in 1991: Comparison of the Longitudinal Study and the National Child
Development Study Data
Situation in 1991
Situation at birth
by age of child
in Two parent family
Sample
Size (N)
cohabiting %
in Lone
mother family
%
% of two
parent families
intact
Apart from
birth mother
%
1.6
33.5
14.4
4.4
7.0
34.2
60.6
10.5
3,666
313
104
4,083
96.4
90.9
96.1
1.0
2.6
6.7
1.2
89.3
29.2
1.7
36.0
8.0
32.3
3,417
353
95.8
89.6
1.0
2.5
83.7
4.9
10.3
3,770
95.4
1.1
5.4
13.5
66.3
8.0
5,885
480
208
6,573
94.9
89.0
41.5
93.9
0.4
1.5
2.4
0.5
4.1
10.4
33.6
5.2
5,527
425
134
6,086
95.6
92.8
58.1
94.9
1.2
0.9
11.2
1.4
married %
Children aged 0–9 in LS: Mother born in 1958
Married
Joint
No partner
All
90.4
29.7
18.3
83.9
Children aged 0–9 in LS: Father born in 1958
Married
Joint
No partner
All
Children aged 0–9 of NCDS cohort members: Mother born in 1958
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
All
92.0
37.3
16.3
85.6
2.2
47.7
14.9
5.9
Children aged 0–9 of NCDS cohort members: Father born in 1958
Married
Cohabiting
No partner
All
92.4
30.6
32.1
86.8
2.2
58.1
23.1
6.6
Source: ONS LS and NCDS
National Statistics
30
Population Trends 102
Table 4
Winter 2000
Children of NCDS Members: Experience of Family Types at and up to 1991
Lone Parenthood
Child’s age
Reported by
Step family
Current
Ever
Current
Ever
n = 100%
6.0
7.6
10.2
15.5
19.7
10.5
6.5
9.8
18.0
38.2
66.0
20.2
0.4
2.0
7.7
21.5
42.2
9.7
0.4
2.3
8.7
26.0
52.4
11.3
1,512
1,995
2,496
2,148
315
8,766
3.1
5.6
7.8
9.8
13.2
6.3
3.5
8.6
16.6
33.9
70.6
14.1
0.6
2.6
8.2
21.0
38.2
6.8
0.6
2.8
8.9
24.8
44.1
7.7
1,668
1,998
2,122
974
68
6,830
4.5
6.6
9.1
13.7
18.5
8.7
4.9
9.2
17.4
36.9
66.8
17.5
0.5
2.3
7.9
21.3
41.5
8.4
0.5
2.6
8.8
25.6
50.9
9.7
3,180
3,993
4,618
3,122
383
15,596
NCDS Mother
<3
3–5
6–9
10–14
15+
Total
NCDS Father
<3
3–5
6–9
10–14
15+
Total
All NCDS5 parents
<3
3–5
6–9
10–14
15+
Total
change beyond that which is revealed by the intermittent sweeps of the
LS. There was evidence of more change experienced by children who
had lived in lone parent families, particularly for children over the age
of six when their parent was interviewed. The proportions of children
who were experiencing, or who had ever experienced, lone parenthood
rise with the child’s age - to two thirds of the small sample of those
aged 15 and over having ever lived in a one parent family (N = 383).
This dramatic result should be qualified with the note that these
teenagers all had a parent under 18 at the time of their birth. The high
rates of family disruption for the oldest children of this cohort reflect
the instability of the partnerships of young parents as well as in the fact
that more time has elapsed for them to witness change.
It should be noted that the histories summarised in Table 4 omit some
of the changes experienced by children not living with their parents and
that the reported incidence of family change was greater when the
informants (the parents) were female rather than male. Taking the
reports of women and concentrating on children born in the last ten
years, the NCDS gives an estimate of 8 per cent of children currently
living with a lone parent and 12 per cent ever having done so (numbers
not shown). Given that the LS would detect lone parent situations at
birth, then 4 per cent is an upper bound on the proportion of children
under the age of 10 years whose experience would not have been
detected in LS records. The LS, taking evidence at birth and at
subsequent decennial censuses cannot cover all episodes in a child’s
living arrangements. It seems less likely to miss episodes in a stepfamily than in a lone parent family. Lone motherhood, in the case of
these British children, tends to occur earlier in a child’s life and finish
earlier, generating shorter spells less likely to be picked up by the LS.
There is less evidence here (or in our unreported examination of
children aged 10–19 in 1991) of step-families breaking up while the
children are still dependent.
CONCLUSIONS
In this paper the data from men and women, born in the same year but
from two different data sources, has allowed some comparative
measures of family change.
The perspectives of mothers, fathers and children as the reference point
for family change did not differ greatly in the family building histories
of NCDS parents up to age 33 years. There is some evidence that a few
fathers failed to report children with whom they are not living: their
existence is denied or unknown. This is not the whole story, however,
as some of the deficit of non-co-resident children is probably
attributable to the loss to the survey of cohort members in the least
stable families. Comparing the fertility histories of cohort members
given at two dates has shown that absent children are not always
reported even when they have been mentioned at a previous interview,
although the vast majority of respondents consistently report
information about the birth of their children. Comparison of the cohort
study with the ONS Longitudinal Study suggests a 5 per cent deficit of
children born to men in this cohort and less than that among women,
despite tracing difficulties and under-reporting. It also suggests a
modest under-representation of lone parent families in the cohort
survey, which also applies to some extent in the LS. The experience of
family change attributed to mothers (at least up to age 33) was, by
construction, similar to that of their children but children of different
birth orders had significantly different experiences. The later-born
children had not yet had much time to diverge in family membership
from their natural parents. The histories of the cohort beyond age 33
could well reveal further family disruption and divergence of the
different players’ perspectives.
It can be concluded that family change measured by statistics based on
fathers’ reports was more likely to be unreliable than that based on
mothers’ reports. There was some evidence of a response bias
concerning non-intact families. Mother-based descriptions were not
grossly different from those for children and are therefore likely to be
informative where child-based statistics are not available. Although the
sources compared here revealed differences in the dimensions of
change they all point substantively in the same direction of stable
family lives. The majority of children have stable family lives, but there
are high levels of movement into lone mother and step-families for
those with teenage parents - whichever way you look at it.
31
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Key findings
• The perspectives of mothers, fathers and children as
sources of statistics on family change have been
found not to differ greatly, taking two longitudinal
data sources up to 1991: the ONS Longitudinal
Study and the National Child Development Study.
• Whichever way you look at it, early parenthood and
family instability are strongly associated.
• There is some evidence that fathers under-report a
few children with whom they are not living, their
existence may be denied or unknown.
• There was some evidence of differential nonresponse to the cohort survey for children not living
with both natural parents. Women were more likely
than men to report children who were not living
with both natural parents, especially if the child was
born outside marriage. Children of all ages are more
likely to be reported by mothers as living in a lone
mother family than by fathers.
• There is not much multiple change for children
between step-families beyond that which is revealed
by the decennial sweeps of the LS. There was
evidence of children who had lived in lone parent
families having experienced more changes.
• The cohort study provided evidence of mothers who
had a child outside a relationship being joined by the
father after the child’s birth
NOTES
*
We acknowledge the financial support for the work reported here by
the Leverhulme Trust, (Grant no F3 /53G, Living Arrangements and
Livelihoods in the Lifecycle) and the ESRC ( Grant no L129100168.
The Changing Home, in the Children 5–16 Programme). We are
grateful to Kath Kiernan, Kate Smith and Ann Berrington for sharing
information on the cleaning of NCDS family histories. We also thank
the ONS for permission to use the Longitudinal Study, and the LS
Support Programme, now at the Institute of Education, for facilitating
access. In particular we are grateful to Judith Wright for the substantial
support she provided to this work.
**
Natural parents include both biological parents and non-biological
parents if the child was adopted at birth or the child was conceived by
artificial or surrogate means.
REFERENCES
1. Clarke L. (1996) “Demographic change and the family situation of
children” In (eds) Brannen J. and O’Brien M. Children in Families:
Research and Policy. London: Falmer Press, pp 66–83.
2. Ermisch J. (1991) Lone Parenthood: An economic analysis.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
3. Saporiti A. (1994) “A methodology for making children count”. In
Qvortrup J. et. al.(eds) Childhood Matters: social theory, practice
& politics. Avebury Press. Aldershot, pp189–210.
National Statistics
32
4. Furstenberg F.F., Nord C.W., Peterson J.L., and Zill N. (1983) “The
Life Course of Children of Divorce: Marital Disruption and
Parental Contact.”American Sociological Review, . 48: 656–668.
5. Bumpass L.L. (1984) “Children and Marital Disruption: A
Replication and Update”. Demography, 21: 71–82.
6. Hofferth S.L. (1988) “Recent trends in the living arrangements of
children: A cohort life table analysis.” In Bongaarts J., Burch T.K.
and Wachter K.W.(eds), Family Demography, Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 168–188 .
7. McLanahan G. and Bumpass L. (1988) “Intergenerational
consequences of family disruption”. American Journal of
Sociology, 94: 130–152.
8. Hernandez D.J. (1993) America’s Children: Resources from Family,
Government, and the Economy. New York: Russell Sage
Foundation.
9. Rendall M. (1994) “The household demography of adolescent
single mothers over their parenting lifetime”’. Paper presented to
the Population Association of America Conference.
10. Bumpass L. L. and Raley R. K. (1995) “Redefining single-parent
families: Cohabitation and changing family reality”. Demography,
32:. 97–110
11. Clarke L. (1992) Children’s family circumstances: recent trends in
Great Britain. European Journal of Population, 8: 309–340 .
12. Leridon H. and Villeneuve-Gokalp C. (1994) Constance et
Inconstances de la Famille: Biographies familiales des couples et
des enfants. Cahiers de l’INED 134. Paris: Presses Universitaires de
France-INED.
13. Coleman D. (2000) ‘Male Fertility Trends in Industrial Countries:
theories in search of some evidence’. The Male Life Cycle in the
Era of Fertility Decline, ed Bledsoe C. Oxford: Oxford University
Press.
14. Rendall M., Clarke L., Peters H.E., Ranjit N. And Verropoulou G.
(1999) “Incomplete reporting of male fertility in the United States
and Britain”. Demography, 36.1.135–144.
15. Clarke L. (1997)”A socio-demographic profile” in Burghes L.,
Clarke L. and Cronin N. Fathers and Fatherhood on Britain.
Occasional Paper 23. London: Family Policy Studies Centre .
16. Hattersley L. and Cresser R. (1995) The Longitudinal Study, 1971–
1991: History, organisation and quality of data. LS Series no.7,
London: The Stationery Office.
17. Ferri E. ed. (1993) Life at 33: The Fifth Follow-up of the National
Child Development Study, London: National Children’s Bureau.
18. Brown A. (1986) “Family circumstances of young children”.
Population Trends, 43: 18–22
19. Clarke L., Joshi H., Di Salvo P. and Wright J.(1997) ‘Stability and
Instability in Children’s Lives: Longitudinal Evidence from Two
British Sources’ Centre for Population Studies Research Paper
97–1.
20. Shepherd P. (1993) “Analysis of Response Bias”. In Ferri (ed.) Life
at 33: The Fifth Follow-up of the National Child Development
Study, London: National Children’s Bureau, pp184–187.
21. Berrington A. (1997) “‘Measurement Errors in Retrospective Union
Histories: Implications for the Analysis of Partnership Formation”.
Paper presented to the Royal Statistical Society, December 1997.
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Appendix
The ONS Longitudinal Study: Linkage between birth registration and the 1991 Census
parent born in 1958
Year of birth
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991*
Total
Born in marriage
Joint registration
Sole registration
Number of
births in
the LS
Whereabouts at the 1991 Census %
Linkage success
success
rate% ‡
linked to usual
residence
not at home
at Census†
died before
Census
embarked before
Census
not linked
60
74
183
255
408
520
673
619
760
807
1044
1022
1015
901
827
900
859
213
11,140
81.7
89.1
86.4
85.4
88.8
87.3
91.6
89.0
89.7
89.2
90.9
91.8
89.4
89.9
89.6
91.8
91.3
92.0
90.0
1.7
0.0
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.6
1.9
0.5
3.3
0.0
2.2
2.0
2.2
1.9
1.2
1.0
1.4
0.9
0.2
0.6
1.2
1.7
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.0
1.4
0.5
1.2
0.7
2.1
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
13.3
9.5
9.3
10.2
7.8
7.9
6.1
9.0
7.6
8.7
8.1
6.8
8.0
7.5
8.9
7.0
7.9
6.1
7.9
86.7
90.5
90.7
89.8
92.2
92.1
93.9
91.0
92.4
91.3
91.9
93.2
92.0
92.5
91.1
93.0
92.1
93.9
92.1
9,727
1,040
373
90.5
87.1
83.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.8
2.4
0.6
0.4
1.4
7.4
10.9
12.1
92.6
89.1
87.9
Source: ONS LS
* born pre-Census in 1991 only.
† child recorded as a visitor at another household at 1991 Census; omitted from the analyses as usual residence could not be located.
‡ number traced in the 1991 Census or at exit (if died or embarked) as a percentage of those still in the study at that time.
33
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Projections of the
population by ethnic group:
a sufficiently interesting or a
definitely necessary exercise
to undertake?
John Haskey
Demography and Health
Office for National Statistics
INTRODUCTION
This article considers the range of
needs which would be met by
having available projections of the
population by ethnic group, and,
in particular, the rôle these
projections would usefully play in
informing current and future
policy issues. The article first
identifies and lists the main uses,
and potential users, of such
projections and gives an appraisal
of the likely applications in each
context. Some of the challenges
involved in using the main
datasources – the census and
surveys – for making such
projections are then addressed;
the article considers what is
measured by asking questions on
ethnicity, and discusses the
implications of ethnicity being
self-assessed - two important
considerations which affect the
potential usefulness of ethnic
projections. Finally, details are
given of a co-operative project
involving a multi-disciplinary
team of academic experts to
explore the feasibility of making
such projections.
National
National Statistics
Statistics
Why population projections by ethnic group?
The “traditional” population projections - those by age, sex and
perhaps especially those by area - have been used for many years for a
variety of planning purposes, particularly in the fields of housing,
health and education, employment and transport. In this article, the uses
of population projections by age, sex, and ethnic group will be
considered. An initial and very pertinent question is therefore whether –
and how – these projections would usefully supplement the “traditional” projections - whose uses have long been accepted as vital.
In essence, the most compelling reason centres on identifying those
sections of the population towards which current policy issues are
particularly directed – and certainly there has been increasing evidence
that the minority ethnic populations experience disproportionate social
exclusion which, in practical terms, means poorer than average housing,
health, education, and employment. Measures and policies are being put
into place to achieve and maintain equality in these fields both now and
in the future. On this basis, projections by ethnic group would therefore
appear to be a most useful supplement to the existing set of population
projections. The article explores this subject and describes the range of
likely uses of projections by ethnic group.
USES OF ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS OF THE ETHNIC
MINORITY POPULATIONS
In many instances, the uses of ethnic population projections would
mirror those of the corresponding population estimates. For example,
an important use of these population estimates is to monitor racial
discrimination and measure equality of opportunity, and the corre-
34
Population Trends 102
sponding projections may be used in similar vein – to estimate the
likely future proportions of the different minority ethnic populations in
the overall population to determine the monitoring targets likely to be
required in the future. Such scenarios should also help the understanding of how present and future targets relate – and the fact that there
need not necessarily be a steady transition from one to the other. Either
way, any form of change may necessitate appropriate policies to be
formulated, and there is considerable advantage in being aware in
advance of likely trends.
Projections are also needed in their own right for a number of other
purposes – that is, ones which are not just extensions of those requiring
population estimates. These mostly involve future numbers, rather than
proportions they will form of the entire population. As an example,
many of the minority ethnic populations are currently younger than the
White population, and the future numbers with given health conditions
known to be disproportionately suffered by particular minority ethnic
populations in old age can be estimated – as can the future numbers of
deaths from specific causes amongst the different minority ethnic
populations. Such analyses are needed in planning medical care
facilities and the number of treatment centres. Other examples include
long-term planning needs at national level – which range from resource
allocation exercises to the provision of a variety of services - in which
knowledge of the likely future numbers of the population by ethnic
group would assist each planning process achieve its goals. Before
considering further examples, however, a review will be given of the
broader context of the need for all kinds of statistical information on the
minority ethnic populations – in order to obtain a more complete
picture and a better appreciation of the potential rôle of projections.
CURRENT POLICY ON MINORITY ETHNIC ISSUES AND
IMPLICATIONS FOR IMPROVED STATISTICAL DATA
There have been a number of recent policy-driven initiatives relating to
race in Government Departments. The Home Office recently published
a report: Race equality in public services1:
“The promotion of race equality within the provision of services to the
public is a key priority for this Government. In support of this priority,
the Government is engaged in a programme of initiatives ranging from
legislative changes to the Race Relations Act to the introduction of a
new race equality grant. The publication of the performance data within
this document will provide a quantifiable way of demonstrating our
progress and will help to make race equality a core issue for Government. It will allow us to bring together the key issues for ethnic
minority communities in one document.”
In order to meet the Government’s objective of promoting race equality,
a number of key areas of public sector service provision were focussed
upon, including those of: economic activity; education; health; law and
order; housing; and local government.
There is also a considerable demand for improved population estimates
by ethnic group, the most important being for those by local area2. The
recent ONS Population Review3 has acknowledged this need, and plans
to take advantage of the proposed increase in the Labour Force Survey
sample size to provide these more detailed estimates which are needed
for a variety of planning and analytic purposes.
More generally, the Government has recognised the crucial need for
better information on many issues to assess and address the problems
existing in deprived neighbourhoods. In a report4 on obtaining better
information for neighbourhood renewal, the Government has stated:
“Comprehensive and up to date information about deprived neighbourhoods is crucial to the National Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal….. Information is one of the key tools in the drive towards a
more inclusive society….”
Winter 2000
One of the main sets of recommendations concerns ethnicity – the
desirability of obtaining more frequent and comprehensive data by
ethnicity across a range of subjects. One specific recommendation, for
example, is that, following the 2001 Census, a time-series of small area
data should be provided which is capable of analysis by ethnicity,
amongst other factors.
The general need for projections was well argued in an earlier paper5 by
the Social Exclusion Unit who co-ordinated the production of the
report:
“Prevention and prediction
Good diagnosis relies on the ability to see and predict trends …..
Government will be unable to keep up with and address rapid changes
….. without some means of being able to see what is coming up ahead.
Poor quality data has led policy makers at a national, local and
neighbourhood level to be reactive in their response to social exclusion,
rather than put in place preventative strategies. Lack of data leads to
government always playing catch up – dealing with problems after they
have occurred….. A solid information base is needed for predicting
future trends and taking preventative action”5.
The report on better information for neighbourhood renewal was
prepared by a “Policy Action Team” and co-ordinated by the Social
Exclusion Unit. In all, there were 18 different Policy Action Teams set
up to report on different aspects of social exclusion, and each was asked
to cover their subject for people of different ethnic groups. As a result, a
considerable body of evidence has been accumulated on the disproportionate exclusion experienced by the minority ethnic populations, and
the actions currently being taken to remedy it. This evidence, together
with the related recommendations which include those on improvements in data on ethnicity, has recently been published as a further
report on minority ethnic social exclusion issues6.
Through these Government initiatives which aim to promote and
uphold racial equality, one particular recommendation has been made to
add ethnic group to existing administrative and other data on a variety
of subjects. Using such data in conjunction with population estimates
by ethnic group is potentially an important and developing field. With
additional information on projections, the likely future numbers of the
minority ethnic population in particular situations, or experiencing
certain events, could be calculated, based on the assumption of current
prevalence levels, or current rates, continuing unchanged. Such simple
analyses could supply answers to pertinent “what if?” types of questions.
Quite apart from these possibilities there is a wide range of other uses
of projections by ethnic group for policy and planning purposes and
research on:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
medical, health, epidemiological and related issues
language and culture
service provision
education
labour market issues
finance and economic matters
family, inter-generational, and old age issues
travel, migration and immigration
Besides the projection results being available for general use, other
users are likely to be as follows:
•
•
•
•
•
Parliament
Central Government
Local Government
The NHS, NHS Health Trusts, and private medical insurance
Personal social service providers – to ensure equal access to, and
services from, these providers
35
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Winter 2000
Public bodies, such as the Commission for Racial Equality
Trade unions, and employers’ organisations – to monitor patterns of
employment and unemployment for the different ethnic groups
Business and commerce – to ensure that recruitment, training and
retention policies are fair and transparent, and that educational
skills and qualifications are matched to appropriate jobs
Marketing of consumer goods and services - to provide products
and services which reflect the increased diversity of cultural norms
Insurance and finance companies
Academic researchers
Educational organisations and schools – to reverse the growing
diversity of educational achievement between children of different
ethnic groups
Students
Voluntary bodies and agencies
Charities
Religious, language and cultural organisations – to recognise that
language training and translation facilities are needed to avoid
exclusion on linguistic grounds
The media
FURTHER DETAILS AND DISCUSSION OF THE LIKELY RANGE
OF USES OF PROJECTIONS OF THE ETHNIC MINORITY
POPULATIONS
The above lists give a summary, in briefest form, of the potential uses,
and users, of the projections and certainly some of them deserve fuller
attention, if only to identify specific issues. Before doing so, it is
appropriate first to consider the wider context and developments which
are likely to take place in society. In a recent paper7, Penn has provided
a summary of the likely changes in society to which these projections
will relate. The paper examines aspects of demographic change –
including those due to ethnicity, migration and fertility – and makes
conjectures on their wider impact on society, concluding that issues of
ethnicity will become of increasing importance.
•
•
•
Making allowance in the provision of medical services for variations in the incidence and prevalence of morbidity, including
mental health, and formulating policies to reduce above-average
morbidity
Differential incidence of school exclusions
Addressing the issue of separate schools for different religious
groups
If projections of the population by ethnic group are to be made, a
number of considerations need to be addressed. The first is whether
projections can indeed be made with existing data, and if judged
possible, whether other difficulties can be overcome. These issues will
now be considered.
CAN PROJECTIONS BE MADE WITH EXISTING ETHNIC
GROUP DATA?
In order to make projections of the population by ethnic group, four
main datasets are required, at least if the standard component method of
projection is used:
1. a base population by ethnic group
past trends in:
2. fertility by ethnic group
3. mortality by ethnic group
4. migration by ethnic group
(these past trends, in the form of rates, are needed to formulate sets of
assumptions of corresponding future rates.)
The One-Number Census would be the main source for the base
population. In inter-censal periods, population estimates are made8 from
cross-sectional sample surveys, in particular the Labour Force Survey,
LFS, which asks the same ethnic group question as the census.
His thesis, with only minimal changes to his wording, is as follows:
“Britain is already a complex multi-ethnic society…..(which) is likely
to increase in complexity and scale over the next twenty-five years.
Linguistic and ethnic diversity will increase as a result of a number of
factors (most notably the effects of international migration and
persistent differentials in ethnic fertility). It is also unlikely that there
will be a diminution in the number of asylum-seekers and refugees
wishing to enter Europe – and by extension, Britain…..This will raise a
whole series of difficult issues in the spheres of education, training, and
employment, as well as contributing to the development of new cultural
forms and practices7.”
As noted above, the key issues are those of racial inequality and social
deprivation and exclusion – which are suffered disproportionately by
each of the minority ethnic populations. Projections are decidedly
necessary to provide a scenario for the future, define national targets,
and track developments towards meeting them. Only with the possession of projected numbers can actions be formulated, and progress
monitored adequately in all the different spheres where situations need
improving or likely future developments need clarifying and quantifying.
Some particular issues, which are likely to be of growing significance
in the future, are as follows:
•
•
•
Appropriate numerical representation in various public services,
notably the Police, the Judiciary and the Armed Forces
Disparity of individuals’ , families’ and households’ incomes
Reducing excess mortality due to certain causes amongst specific
minority ethnic populations
National Statistics
36
In addition, the Census would most likely play an important part in
estimating past recent trends in the three components (fertility,
mortality, and migration) via analyses of the ONS Longitudinal Study,
LS, which incorporates data from the past three censuses including the
1991 Census which was the first to include a question on ethnic group.
Hence, for much of the statistical data needed to make projections, the
ethnic group classifications used in the 1991 Census – and also in the
forthcoming 2001 Census – really determine, not only the different
ethnic groups which are distinguished, but also how the information on
them is collected.
It should be recognised, however, that the ethnic group question in the
census is intended to serve many purposes simultaneously; in particular,
the question is not formulated specifically to provide a detailed
classification of ethnicity for demographic or research purposes. As part
of its broad remit, the question must be easy to ask and practical, not
only in the census but also in other situations, and so capable of
providing a suitable standard.
THE ETHNIC GROUP QUESTION
In both the 1991 Census and the LFS, respondents are invited to select
from a list of 9 categories, the ethnic group to which they consider they
belong – see Box 1. There therefore appear to be two factors determining the ethnic group which is recorded for each respondent: their own
choice of how they view their own ethnicity, and the list of options
which are presented to them. The first consideration is the most
straightforward; the ethnic group which each person chooses as his or
her own is intrinsically the ethnic group of self-identity, rather than
Population Trends 102
Box one
The ONS ethnic group classification
Since 1991, the ethnic group classification used in the
1991 Census has become the standard:
White
Black – Caribbean
Black – African
Black – Other
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Other
In the 1991 Census, respondents who ticked either
Black-Other or Other were asked to write in further
details of their ethnic group, which, depending upon
what they supplied, was either classified back to one of
the main ethnic groups or else assigned to one of two
new groups:
(a) Other groups – Asian, or
(b) Other groups – Other (non-Asian).
In the LFS, respondents who respond to the
interviewer’s list of alternatives by giving either Black –
Other or Other are asked to give more details;
depending on their reply, their answer is either
classified back to one of the main ethnic groups or else
assigned to one of several new groups:
Black –
Black –
Other –
Other –
Other –
Other (non-mixed)
Mixed
Asian (non-mixed)
Other (non-mixed)
Mixed
(please see reference 18 for the 2001 Census ethnic
group question)
being ascribed by anyone else. The second consideration is apparently
not so clear-cut, in that the ethnic group options presented to the
respondent are not completely ones of self-identity in the sense that the
respondent has no say in the names or the number of the different
alternative ethnic groups in the ‘menu’. Therefore, the freedom the
respondent has to select their own ethnic group is constrained and
influenced by the options on offer.
In reality, whether the data-collecting occasion is that of the census9 or
of the LFS, the ethnic groups presented are the result of much piloting
and pre-testing before a standard list is put into practice. Extensive field
work was carried out before the 1991 census 10,11,12 and the 1991 census
ethnic classification was subsequently adopted by the LFS as part of the
harmonisation of the ethnic group question. A large part of the piloting
centres on testing alternative wording of the question and the named
categories to accord with people’s own preferred ethnic descriptions of
themselves10,11,12 . The underlying aim in drawing up a list of ethnic
group options is therefore consistent with the self-identity aspect
implied by respondents choosing their own ethnic group. In practice,
the list of apparent answers is effectively a list of questions, with the
respondent successively asking himself/herself “Am I White,
Winter 2000
Black-Caribbean…..?” Answering “Yes” to one particular ethnic group
involves identifying with that ethnic group.
PERCEPTIONS OF ETHNIC GROUP
However, it should be recognised that individuals’ and groups’ own
perceptions of their ethnicity are also influenced by the views of other
minority ethnic groups – as well as of the majority White population towards them. Another important factor is how the White population
perceives the variety in distinguishable ethnic groups, being influenced
by a number of characteristics13 including both physical and nonphysical ones, such as skin colour, culture and language. This factor
probably accounts for the fact that only three ethnic groups are
identified amongst those from the Indian sub-continent (Indians,
Pakistanis, and Bangladeshis) – rather than separately identifying, say,
Gujaratis, Sylhetis, Punjabis, and Azad Kashmiris - although part of the
explanation may lie in not wishing to have too numerous a classification. In reality, there is a dynamic process of interchange between the
self-definition of the minority groups and the perceptions of society as a
whole.
Implicit from the intrinsic nature of ethnicity is the fact that the ethnic
groups, however defined or measured, will tend to change over time so that, quite legitimately, for a proportion of the population, a person
may record themselves as one ethnic group at one time and another on a
subsequent occasion. Such changes depend upon social and political
attitudes and developments; for example, ‘Black’ was an unacceptable
term at one time, but is now one which is embraced by the individuals
in the groups concerned. This, and earlier examples indicate that:
an ethnic group classification is only valid for the period and context in
which it is used.
More generally, when the previous set of ethnic population projections
was made in 197614,15, the term for ethnic minority population was the
population of ‘New Commonwealth and Pakistan ethnic origin’, but the
terminology of ethnicity had changed by the time the final year of the
projection arrived – which was 1991.
In the piloting of alternative names for ethnic groups to include in the
list of options in the census, some inconsistencies or difficulties
inevitably arise. The 1991 Census did not include a specific “mixed”
ethnic group category. Up to the mid-1980s, the various field trials had
shown that people of mixed descent often preferred not to be distinguished as a separate group;11 instead they usually identified with the
ethnic group of one of their parents – usually the father.11 As a result, an
attempt to classify all persons of mixed descent in the same way was
abandoned, and a guidance note was added to the 1991 Census
question: “if the person is descended from more than one ethnic or
racial group, please tick the group to which the person considers he/she
belongs,,, or tick the ‘Any other ethnic group’ box and describe the
person’s ancestry in the space provided.”
Evidence from the LFS suggested, however, that, by 1991, the population of mixed ethnic origin was increasing with an annual growth rate16
above the minority ethnic average. Probably as a result of trying to
estimate the numbers by indirect means, this group could not be fully
accounted for in the 1991 Census results. More recently, fieldwork to
determine a revised ethnic group question for 2001 has shown that a
“mixed” category would be acceptable, provided that an opportunity
were given to record the relevant details, as a written description.17
This finding illustrates that those of mixed ethnicity may well respond
differently at different times - depending upon their changing views of
their own ethnicity, which in turn will be influenced by society’s
changing perceptions – and ability to distinguish such ethnicity. In fact,
far from being a single ethnic group, those of mixed ethnic origin
consist of a multitude of different ethnic backgrounds. In recognition of
this diversity, there will not only be a separate mixed ethnic group
37
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
question in the 2001 Census, but three of the most important kinds of
combinations of origins will be distinguished within it.18,19
Another example is the tendency of some Black-Caribbeans to describe
themselves as Black British20,21 to emphasise, if not for themselves then
for their children, that they were born in Britain, belong in Britain, and
are therefore British. The desire to use the term might well also signify
the assertion that being “Black” and “British” are not inconsistent. The
major difficulty with the ethnic group “Black British” is that it conceals
the further details of the person’s origins, preventing the finer classification of ethnicity which most users require. A similar development has
occurred amongst younger members of the Indian, Pakistani and
Bangladeshi communities who are beginning to prefer the term “British
Asian”.
However, it can be argued that aiming for greater detail than is given by
“Black British” or “British Asian” is interfering with the concept of
unfettered self-classification, even though “British” is a problematic
and ambiguous term – which can refer to nationality, citizenship, and,
for many, ethnicity22. In fact, this problem has apparently been largely
overcome in the 2001 Census23 by what is essentially a two-stage
system of choosing ethnic group from the census schedule classification; one of the first stage choices includes the category: Black or Black
British, whilst the second stage refines that choice into several options,
including “Black-Caribbean”.
Nevertheless, this device may prove only a short-term solution – which
allows some consistency and continuity with the 1991 Census classification – if a growing proportion essentially do not wish to elaborate on
“Black British” or “British Asian”, or do not identify with “BlackCaribbean”. More importantly, the basis or implied basis, of the ethnic
group classification can influence the pattern of response. The implications for projections which start from a base population are obvious.
It should also be mentioned that there is a facility for respondents to
specify their ethnic group should they not be satisfied with any of the
suggested descriptions in the ethnic group classification. In fact, in
1991 there were two such opportunities for writing in one’s own
terminology of one’s ethnic group: firstly, if one were ‘Black’, and none
of the ‘Black’ ethnic groups was deemed a satisfactory description, and
secondly if none of the entire set of ethnic group descriptions was
judged appropriate. A similar pattern – and ability to specify one’s own
ethnic group if so wished - will also be incorporated in the 2001
Census. (In fact, there will be 5 rather than 2, separate opportunities18,19
to write in one’s own description – under, in turn: any other White/
Mixed/Asian/Black/Other ethnic group.)
have been no discernible shifts from one ethnic group to another. Nor
has there been strong evidence of a rejection of any of the ethnic group
terms. Indeed, the ethnic groups to appear in the 2001 Census – the
result of extensive field-testing - show strong continuity with those
appearing in the 1991 Census.
Consequently, the basis on which ethnic group is collected is probably
sufficiently objective to contemplate making projections. The strengthening of the 2001 Census to overcome the difficulties experienced in
1991 also augurs well for the feasibility of a projections exercise.
In fact, there have been a number of other proposals for, and discussions of, the best ethnic group question for the next census24,25,26,27. It
has been decided23, after a question testing programme, that there
should be a balance between continuity with the 1991 classification and
making the desirable improvements identified as necessary in the
process of analysing the 1991 Census – most particularly the detailed
analyses contained in the four volumes: Ethnicity in the 1991 Census.28,29,30,31
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PROJECTIONS?
The above considerations have been discussed in some detail since they
have obvious implications for the practicability, robustness and
interpretation of ethnic minority population projections results. Their
relevance is all the more important if the basis, or definition, of ethnic
group is changed. While there are a number of uncertainties attached to
“traditional” population projections – those by age and sex – there are
additional uncertainties involved with ethnic projections:
(a) uncertainties resulting from the imprecision of
ethnicity
•
•
•
•
•
CAN PROJECTIONS BE MADE BY ETHNIC GROUP USING
AVAILABLE DATA?
•
In making projections by ethnic group, an important question is
whether ethnic group as collected in the census and LFS provides
objective or subjective information. If it is the former, then projections
by ethnic group should be straightforward – or at least as straightforward as those by, say, legal marital status (even if extra attention needs
to be paid to children of parents of different ethnic groups). If, however,
it is the latter, projections may range from mildly difficult to impossible, depending upon the degree of subjectivity, and the rapidity with
which that subjectivity results in the categories changing over time.
•
At first sight, ethnic group being self-ascribed, and based on selfidentity, appears to be entirely subjective. However, the named ethnic
group descriptions provided, that is, the precoded answers – or
precoded questions – consist of a combination on colour and geographical region of ancestry – both of which are reasonably objective for the
majority of the population. Furthermore, rather more pragmatically,
respondents to the 1991 Census answered by and large in a consistent
way, and judging by the profile of answers to the LFS since 1992, there
•
National Statistics
38
Changing perceptions of ethnic identity, including the distinguishing
of new ethnic groups - including those within the White population and the possible merging of some ‘traditional’ ethnic groups
The growing trend for different groups within the population of the
United Kingdom to wish to have their identity recognised
A shift in emphasis in the definition of ethnic group, from one
predominantly based on colour and country of ancestral origin, to
one placing greater weight on language, culture, and religion
The greater variation in ancestry in those of mixed ethnic origin –
resulting in a very heterogeneous group in demographic and other
characteristics
The greater likelihood of those of mixed ethnic origin answering
differently on different occasions, depending on the context of the
situation
The added complication of births of children to parents of different
ethnic groups being considered by their parents as belonging to one
or other of their ethnic groups – or indeed to a third
The fact that when they grow up, children may not consider they
belong to the same ethnic group which their parents had earlier
ascribed to them
(b) uncertainties connected with demographic
considerations
•
•
Greater difficulties in establishing past trends in fertility, migration
and mortality, from which to formulate assumptions on future
corresponding vital rates
Greater sensitivity of projection results to migration assumptions
since issues such as asylum seekers, refugees, ‘economic migrants’
and return migration are especially dependent upon ethnic group –
and immigration policy and controls may also have a differential
impact
Uncertainty whether the fertility of the different ethnic groups - or
only some - will converge with that of the majority White population, and, if so, at what pace
Population Trends 102
•
•
•
•
How the socio-economic situation of the different ethnic groups
will influence their future patterns of fertility and mortality
Because the minority ethnic population has a younger age structure
than the White population, the cumulative effect of relatively small
variations in fertility assumptions for the minority ethnic population
is likely to be relatively large
The need to reconcile the results of the “traditional” population
projections – those by age and sex – with those derived separately
for each ethnic group
The fact that projection results are the implications of the chosen
set of assumptions, rather than a definite prediction, which, if so
viewed, may become self-fulfilling
These are the main issues which need addressing and resolving. As
mentioned above, a previous, relatively straightforward, projection
exercise yielded acceptable results – though it should be added that the
projections did not attempt to distinguish projected populations by
ethnic group. Certainly, two previous parallel exercises both to estimate
annual growth rates, one of the ethnic minority population as a whole32,
and the other of each of the different ethnic minority populations16,
showed, not surprisingly, that the latter set was more difficult to
estimate in practice, primarily because of the greater number of factors
to take into account, and also because each of those factors had to be
quantified or estimated on sparser quantities of information.
A CO-OPERATIVE PROJECT TO MAKE PROJECTIONS OF THE
POPULATION BY ETHNIC GROUP
ONS has brought together an expert group of specialists in ethnicity to
embark on a co-operative project to explore the feasibility of making
projections of the minority ethnic populations. The expert group
consists of a multi-disciplinary team of academic demographers,
geographers and others in related disciplines. The project is planned to
comprise several stages; the first of which is to investigate thoroughly
whether it is possible, with existing data sources and with a number of
practical and theoretical difficulties to overcome, to produce a set of
projections which are judged to be sufficiently reliable for the various
purposes for which they are required.
Should the project be considered feasible – a decision which will be
made in Spring 2001 – it is planned that consultation and preparatory
work would start immediately. The idea is that all the necessary trialling
and preparation would be completed by the time that the 2001 Census
results become available during 2003, so that the projections based on
them could be published shortly afterwards.
CONCLUSIONS
From the above considerations, it is concluded that, for a wide range of
purposes, projections of the ethnic minority population are a very
necessary element in the armoury of available national demographic
data. Just as the traditional kind of population projections - those by age
and sex - have long been accepted as indispensable for a variety of
policy, planning and research purposes, so too should those by ethnicity. Furthermore, there is some qualitative evidence that ethnic group as
collected in the census and the LFS is sufficiently objective to contemplate making projections. A more rigorous evaluation will be made in
the feasibility stage of the ONS project to consider making projections
by ethnic group.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Thanks are due to the referees, Dr Roger Ballard, and particularly to
Professor Richard Berthoud who provided many helpful comments on
an earlier draft. The opinions expressed, and any errors of fact or
interpretation remain, however, the responsibility of the author alone.
Winter 2000
REFERENCES
1. Home Office. Race equality in public services – driving up
standards and accounting for progress. Home Office (London,
2000).
2. John Haskey. The ethnic minority populations resident in private
households – estimates by county and metropolitan district of
England and Wales. Population Trends 63 HMSO (London, 1991)
pp.22–35.
3. The ONS Population Review, Population and Vital Statistics
Division, ONS (Titchfield, 1999).
4. Cabinet Office, Social Exclusion Unit. National strategy for
neighbourhood renewal: Report of Policy Action Team 18 – Better
information. TSO (London, 2000).
5. Atul Patel. The work of the Social Exclusion Unit on better
information. Paper presented to the Statistics Users Council
Conference on Social Exclusion Statistics, November 1999.
6. Cabinet Office, Social Exclusion Unit. Minority Ethnic Issues in
Social Exclusion and Neighbourhood Renewal. (London, 2000).
7. Roger Penn. British population and society in 2025: some conjectures. Sociology Volume 34, No. 1 (2000) pp. 5–18.
8. Jeremy Schuman. The ethnic minority populations of Great Britain
– latest estimates. Population Trends 96 TSO (London, 1999)
pp.33–43. (see also Box 1 in this article)
9. Andy Teague. Ethnic group: first results from the 1991 Census.
Population Trends 72 HMSO (London, 1993) pp.12–17.
10. Ken Sillitoe and Phil White. Ethnic group and the British Census:
the search for a question. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,
Series A, Part I (1992) pp. 141–163.
11. Ken Sillitoe. Developing questions on ethnicity and related topics
for the Census. Occasional Paper 36, Office of Population Censuses
and Surveys (London, 1987).
12. Ken Sillitoe. Questions on race, ethnicity and related topics for the
Census. Population Trends 49 HMSO (London, 1987) pp. 5–11.
13. John Haskey. Population Review: (8) the ethnic minority and
overseas-born population of Great Britain. Population Trends 88
TSO (London, 1997) pp.13–30.
14. Immigrant Statistics Unit. Population of New Commonwealth and
Pakistani ethnic origin: new projections. Population Trends 16
HMSO (London, 1979) pp.22–27.
15. John Haskey. Demographic issues in 1975 and 2000. Population
Trends 100 TSO (London, 2000) pp.20–31.
16. John Haskey. The demographic characteristics (and annual growth
in the size) of the ethnic minority populations of Great Britain. In:
Minority populations – genetics, demography and health (eds: Alan
Bittles and D Roberts) Studies in biology, economy and society.
The Macmillan Press in association with the Galton Institute
(London, 1992).
17. Minda Phillips. Ethnicity in the 2001 Census (talk given to the
Black Employment Conference, 1999).
18. The 2001 Census of Population (White Paper) (CM 4253) TSO
(London, March 1999).
19. Andy Teague. New methodology for the 2001 Census in England
and Wales. International Journal of Social Research Methodology
Theory and Practice Vol. 3, No.3 (2000) pp. 245-255.
20. Ceri Peach. Black-Caribbeans: class, gender and geography. In:
Ethnicity in the 1991 Census Volume 2: The ethnic minority
populations of Great Britain (ed: Ceri Peach) HMSO (London,
1996).
21. David Owen. Black-Other: the melting pot. In: Ethnicity in the
1991 Census Volume 2: The ethnic minority populations of Great
Britain (ed: Ceri Peach) HMSO (London, 1996).
22. David McCrone and Richard Kiely. Nationality and citizenship.
Sociology Vol. 34, No.1 (2000) pp.19–34.
23. Office for National Statistics/General Register Office (Scotland)/
Northern Ireland Statistical and Research Agency. 2001 Census
Output: proposed data classifications. ONS/GRO(S)/NISRA
(1999).
39
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
24. Roger Ballard. Asking ethnic questions: some hows, whys and
wherefores. Patterns of Prejudice, Vol. 32 No2 (1998) pp. 18–37.
25. Roger Ballard. Negotiating race and ethnicity: exploring the
implications of the 1991 Census. Patterns of Prejudice, Vol. 30,
No.3 (1996).
26. Richard Berthoud. Defining ethnic groups: Origin or identity.
Patterns of Prejudice, Vol.32, No.2 (1998).
27. Peter Aspinall. The new 2001 Census question set on cultural
characteristics: is it useful for the monitoring of health status of
people from ethnic groups in Britain? Ethnicity and Health, 5 (1)
(2000) pp. 33–40.
28. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys. Ethnicity in the 1991
Census Volume 1: Demographic characteristics of the ethnic
minority populations (eds: David Coleman and John Salt) HMSO
(London, 1996).
29. Office for National Statistics. Ethnicity in the 1991 Census Volume
2: The ethnic minority populations of Great Britain (ed: Ceri
Peach) HMSO (London, 1996).
30. Office for National Statistics. Ethnicity in the 1991 Census Volume
3: Social geography and ethnicity in Britain: geographical spread,
spatial concentration and internal migration (ed: Peter Ratcliffe)
HMSO (London, 1997).
31. Office for National Statistics. Ethnicity in the 1991 Census Volume
4: Employment, education and housing among the ethnic minority
populations of Britain (ed: Valerie Karn) TSO (London, 1997).
32. Chris Shaw. Components of growth in the ethnic minority population. Population Trends 52 HMSO (London, 1988) pp.26–30.
FURTHER READING
Additional issues relevant to those discussed in this article are addressed in:
Tariq Modood, Richard Berthoud, et al. Ethnic minorities in Britain:
diversity and disadvantage. (The Fourth National Survey of Ethnic
Minorities) Policy Studies Institute (London, 1997).
(This volume provides comprehensive analyses, derived from the
Fourth National Survey, on the position of the minority ethnic communities in British society. It reports on changes in such key features as
family and household structures, education, qualifications and language, employment patterns, income and standard of living, neighbourhoods and housing. It also analyses some new topics, including health
and health services, and cultural identity. Of particular interest, the
volume addresses the issue of obtaining better information on ethnicity.)
Stanley Lieberson, Mary C Waters. From many strands: ethnic and
racial groups in contemporary America. (for the National Committee
for Research on the 1980 Census in the US) Russell Sage Foundation
(New York, 1988).
(This volume describes the radical changes in the measurement of
ethnicity in the 1980 US Census by collecting information on ancestry
for all respondents, regardless of how long ago their forebears migrated
to America, and by allowing respondents of mixed background to list
more than one ancestry. While some findings lent support to the
“melting pot” theory of assimilation, other findings suggested the
persistence of pluralism.)
National Statistics
40
Tables
Table*
Page
Population
1.1 (1)
1.2 (2)
International
National
1.3 (3)
Subnational
1.4 (4)
Subnational
1.5 (6)
Age and sex
1.6 (7)
1.7 (5)
Age, sex and legal marital status
Components of population change
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Selected countries
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Health Regional Office areas
of England
Government Office Regions
of England
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
England and Wales
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
42
44
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
53
England and Wales
England and Wales
England and Wales
56
57
58
England and Wales
(residents)
59
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
60
England and Wales
Health Regional Office areas
of England
61
62
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
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64
65
United Kingdom
66
England and Wales
England and Wales
England and Wales
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68
69
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50
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Vital statistics
2.1 (8)
Summary
2.2 (new)
Key demographic and health indicators
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Live births
3.1 (9)
3.2 (10)
3.3 (11)
Age of mother
Outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
Within marriage: age of mother and birth order
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Conceptions
4.1 (12)
Age of women at conception
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Expectation of life
5.1 (13)
(In years) at birth and selected ages
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Deaths
6.1 (14)
6.2 (15)
Age and sex
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7.1 (18)
7.2 (19)
7.3 (20)
Age and sex
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Citizenship
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8.1 (21)
Movements within the United Kingdom
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9.1 (22)
9.2 (23)
9.3 (24)
First marriages: age and sex
Remarriages: age, sex and previous marital status
Divorces: age and sex
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* Numbers in brackets indicate former table numbers in earlier editions of Population Trends.
Former tables 16 and 17 (Deaths by selected causes, and Abortions) now appear in Health Statistics Quarterly.
StatBase ®: Population Trends tables are now available on StatBase® which can be accessed
via our website: www.statistics.gov.uk
Symbols
.. not available
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41
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 1.1
Year
Winter 2000
Population and vital rates: international
United
Kingdom (1)
Selected countries
Austria
(2)
Belgium
(2)
Denmark
(2)
Finland
(2)
France
Germany Germany
(2)
(Fed. Rep (2))* (2)†
Greece
(2)
Irish
Republic (2)
Italy
(2)
Luxembourg (2)
Netherlands (2)
Portugal
(2)
7,501
7,566
7,569
7,588
7,818
7,915
9,673
9,811
9,859
9,862
10,005
10,045
4,963
5,073
5,122
5,121
5,154
5,170
4,612
4,726
4,800
4,918
5,014
5,042
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
57,373
61,302
61,531
61,682
61,066
64,074
64,865
78,352
78,321
78,419
77,694
80,014
80,624
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,967
10,247
10,322
2,978
3,228
3,443
3,541
3,526
3,557
54,074
55,718
56,510
56,596
56,751
56,859
342
361
365
368
387
393
13,195
13,774
14,247
14,572
15,070
15,184
8,644
9,355
9,851
10,011
9,871
9,867
7,989
8,028
8,047
8,059
8,068
8,075
10,085
10,116
10,137
10,157
10,170
10,192
5,189
5,205
5,228
5,262
5,275
5,295
5,066
5,089
5,108
5,125
5,132
5,147
57,654
57,899
58,137 ‡
58,374 ‡
58,494 ‡
58,728
65,534
65,858
66,715
81,156
81,438
81,678
81,817
82,012
82,057
10,380
10,426
10,454
10,475
10,487 ‡
10,511
3,574
3,587
3,605
3,626
3,652
3,694
57,049
57,204
57,301
57,397
57,461
57,563
398
404
410
416
418
424
15,290
15,383
15,459
15,531
15,567
15,654
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1.7
2.9
1976–81
0.5
0.1
1.0
1981–86
1.8
0.5
0.1
1986–91
1.7
6.1
2.9
4.4
1.9
0.0
1.3
4.9
3.1
4.9
3.9
6.5
4.8
5.0
5.4
0.7
0.5
–2.0
9.9
–0.1
0.3
–1.8
6.0
7.6
12.3
4.9
5.6
16.8
13.3
5.7
–0.8
6.1
2.8
0.3
0.5
10.7
2.5
1.8
10.2
8.8
6.9
4.6
6.8
16.5
10.6
3.2
–2.8
4.1
3.9
3.1
2.1
1.9
1.3
2.2
3.2
3.7
3.0
4.4
6.4
2.6
3.8
5.6
4.8
4.4
3.7
3.3
1.4
2.9
5.6
4.9
4.2
4.1 ‡
4.1 ‡
2.1 ‡
4.0
12.3
10.3
4.9
13.0
7.6
6.6
3.5
2.9
1.7
2.4
0.5
7.3
5.6
4.5
2.7
2.0
1.1
2.3
8.8
4.8
3.9
5.0
5.8
7.1
11.5
1.9
3.4
2.7
1.7
1.7
1.1
1.8
13.9
14.3
14.3
14.6
14.4
5.8
14.4
7.6
7.0
6.1
4.9
4.6
2.4
5.6
–0.4
1.4
2.2
1.4
1.1
0.7
2.3
13.4
12.5
12.0
12.1
12.6
12.4
14.6
12.0
10.2
11.5
12.5
13.1
13.1
13.6
13.4
12.7
13.0
13.3
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.8
13.3
13.0
10.8
9.7
9.8
10.9
11.3
11.1
10.5
10.5
10.7
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.6
10.1
10.1
22.2
21.3
19.2
15.8
15.0
14.4
16.0
12.6
10.6
9.8
9.9
9.7
11.6
11.2
11.6
12.2
12.9
13.1
14.9
12.6
12.2
12.8
13.2
13.0
20.3
17.9
14.5
11.9
11.8
11.6
13.0
13.4
13.4
12.9 ‡
12.8 ‡
12.5
12.8
12.8
12.3
11.8
11.5 ‡
11.1
12.3
12.3
12.5 ‡
12.6 ‡
12.4 ‡
12.6
11.0
10.5
10.2
10.6 ‡
9.8
10.0
9.7
9.6 ‡
9.7 ‡
9.6
13.8
13.4
13.5
13.9
14.2
9.6
9.3
9.2 ‡
9.2 ‡
9.2 ‡
9.0
13.4
13.5
13.2
13.7
13.1
12.6
12.8
12.7
12.3
12.2
12.4 ‡
12.8
11.5
11.0
10.8
11.1
11.4
11.4
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.5
9.2
9.1
11.9
11.7
11.6
11.3
11.1
10.7
12.3
12.2
12.0
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.3
9.5
11.0
10.2
9.4
9.1
8.9
8.7
9.8
9.7
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.6
12.2
11.5
11.2
10.5
9.7
10.2
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.6
8.6
11.0
10.1
9.6
9.6
10.5
10.2
10.9
10.7
10.6
10.7
11.1
10.9
10.8
10.8
9.4
9.4
9.6
9.6
9.6
8.7
8.6 ‡
9.0
8.8 ‡
8.6 ‡
9.7
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.0
8.7
8.8
8.9 ‡
8.7 ‡
10.7
10.0
10.4
10.8
10.5
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,859
1991
57,814
1992
58,013
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
58,198
58,401
58,612
58,807
59,014
59,237
59,501
3.4
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.5
12.3
9.3
4.9
2.4
1.6
1.1
0.9
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
14.1
13.3
1976–80
12.5
11.5
1981–85
12.9
12.0
1986–90
13.6
11.6
1991
13.7
12.1
1992
13.5
12.1
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
13.1
12.9
12.5
12.5
12.3
12.1
11.8 ‡
11.9
11.5
11.0
11.0
10.4
10.1
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
11.8
12.6
1976–80
11.9
12.3
1981–85
11.7
12.0
1986–90
11.4
11.1
1991
11.3
10.7
1992
11.0
10.5
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
*
†
‡
≠
11.3
10.7
10.9
10.9
10.8
10.6
10.6 ‡
10.3
10.0
10.1
10.0
9.8
Excluding former GDR throughout.
Including former GDR throughout.
Provisional.
Estimates prepared by the Population
Division of the United Nations.
+ Rates are for 1990–95.
12.0
11.5
11.4
11.4
11.4
11.2
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
12.1
11.6
11.4
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.5
11.6
11.8
12.1
11.7
12.1
11.6 ‡
11.3 ‡
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.8
9.8
9.9
11.4
11.0
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Population estimated at 30 June each year.
Average of estimated populations at start and end of year as given in Council of Europe report Recent demographic developments in Europe 1997.
EU as constituted 1 January 1986 and including countries subsequently admitted.
Population estimated at 1 June each year.
Population estimated at 31 December each year.
Population estimated at 1 July except for 1991 (1 March).
Population estimated at 1 October. (Rates for Japan are based on population of Japanese nationality only.)
National Statistics
42
9.2
9.0
9.1 ‡
9.2 ‡
9.1 ‡
9.9
9.5
9.4
9.7 ‡
9.9
9.5
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
9.8
9.4
9.3
9.4
9.4
9,881
9,902
9,917
9,927
9,934 ‡
9,957
10.7
10.4
10.5
10.4
10.2
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
10.1
9.4
9.6
9.6
9.6
10.4
10.1
‡
‡
‡
‡
Population Trends 102
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
continued
Spain
(2)
Winter 2000
Sweden
(2)
Selected countries
European
Union (3)
Russian
Federation (2)
Australia
(1)
Canada
(4)
New
Zealand (5)
China
(5)
India
(6)
Japan
(7)
130,079
133,745
139,422
144,475
148,624
148,689
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,284
17,495
22,026
23,517
24,900
26,204
28,120
28,542
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,450
3,516
852,290
943,033 ≠
1,011,219 ≠
1,086,733 ≠
1,170,052 ≠
1,183,617 ≠
551,311
617,248
676,218
767,199
851,661
867,818
105,145
113,094
117,902
121,672
123,102
123,476
148,520
148,336
148,141
147,608
147,137
146,731
17,667
17,855
18,072
18,311
18,530
18,750
28,947
29,256
29,615
29,964 ‡
30,290
30,300
3,556
3,604
3,658
3,716
3,760
3,790
1,190,360 ≠
1,208,841 ≠
1,221,462 ≠
1,232,083 ≠
1,243,740
833,910
918,570 ≠
935,744 ≠
936,000 ≠
955,120
970,930
123,788
124,069
124,299
124,709
125,640
126,410
5.6
8.5
7.2
5.7
14.8
12.7
14.7
15.8
13.5
11.8
10.5
14.6
18.2
2.0
7.6
8.0
19.9
15.2
15.5
15.3
0.4
–1.1
–1.2
–1.3
–2.7
12.2
9.9
10.6
12.2
13.2
12.0
15.0
14.2
10.7
12.3
11.8 ‡
19.0
11.5
13.5
15.0
15.8
11.6
5.7
15.5
10.4
8.7
19.0
18.5
39.2
18.7
18.8
15.7
15.6
15.1
14.9
15.1
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.8
14.3
14.0
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.1
17.4
17.2
27.2
18.6
19.2
35.6
33.4
..
14.7
14.5
14.2
13.9
13.4
13.2
12.8
17.1
16.4
16.3
18.3+
28.7
28.7
28.3
8.2
7.6
7.3
7.2
6.9
7.1
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.3
7.0
6.9
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
7.8
7.9
7.3
6.6
6.7
15.5
13.8
..
6.8
7.1
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.2+
34,190
35,937
37,742
38,537
38,920
39,008
8,098
8,222
8,321
8,370
8,617
8,668
342,631
350,384
356,511
359,543
366,256
368,033
39,086
39,150
39,210
39,270
39,299
39,348
8,719
8,781
8,827
8,841
8,844
8,848
369,706
371,005
372,122
373,077
373,715
374,616
10.2
10.0
4.2
2.0
3.1
2.4
1.2
5.9
4.5
3.5
1.7
3.7
2.3
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.5
0.7
1.2
5.9
5.8
7.1
5.3
1.6
0.3
0.5
4.9
4.5
3.5
3.0
19.2
17.1
12.8
10.8
10.2
10.2
13.5
11.6
11.3
13.2
14.3
14.2
14.7
13.1
12.2
13.3
11.7
11.5
9.9
9.5
9.2 ‡
9.0 ‡
9.2 ‡
9.2
13.5
12.8
11.7
10.8
10.2
10.1
11.2 ‡
10.9 ‡
10.7 ‡
8.5
8.0
7.7
8.2
8.6
8.5
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.1
11.0
10.9
10.8
10.6
10.4
11.4
10.2
10.0
8.7
8.6
8.8 ‡
8.9 ‡
8.9 ‡
11.1
10.5
10.6
10.6
10.5
10.2 ‡
9.9 ‡
10.0 ‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
‡
12.1
10.7
9.3
9.5
9.2
8.8
8.6
11.4
12.2
14.3
15.5
14.9
14.1
13.7
USA
(1)
Year
Population (thousands)
207,661
1971
218,035
1976
230,138
1981
240,680
1986
252,177
1991
255,078
1992
257,783
260,341
262,755
265,284
267,900
270,560
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
23.9
15.1
10.0
1971–76
18.8
8.5
10.9
1976–81
27.3
6.4
9.3
1981–86
22.0
2.4
9.6
1986–91
29.5
29.0
9.8
10.1
9.3
9.3
9.0
3.0
2.5
2.3
1.9
3.3
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
18.6
15.3
1971–75
14.9
15.2
1976–80
12.6
15.7
1981–85
10.6
16.0
1986–90
9.9
16.3
1991
9.7
16.0
1992
9.5
9.9
9.5
9.6 ‡
15.5
15.2
14.8
14.8 ‡
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
6.4
9.1
1971–75
6.1
8.7
1976–80
6.1
8.6
1981–85
6.4
8.7
1986–90
6.7
8.6
1991
6.9
8.5
1992
7.0
7.0
7.4
7.1
See notes opposite.
43
11.5
10.6
9.9
9.3
9.6
National Statistics
8.8
8.7
8.8
8.8 ‡
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Population Trends 102
Table 1.2
Winter 2000
Population: national
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
Mid-year
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
England
and Wales
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,859
57,814
58,013
54,388
54,693
54,815
55,285
56,207
56,388
49,152
49,459
49,634
50,162
51,100
51,277
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,342
48,208
48,378
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,820
2,891
2,899
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,123
5,107
5,111
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1,625
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
58,198
58,401
58,612
58,807
59,014
59,237
59,501
56,559
56,753
56,957
57,138
57,334
57,548
57,809
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
52,211
52,428
52,690
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
49,284
49,495
49,753
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
2,927
2,933
2,937
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
5,123
5,120
5,119
1,638
1,648
1,655
1,669
1,680
1,689
1,692
6.1
14.3
40.8
20.8
10.7
7.3
6.1
14.2
40.8
20.8
10.8
7.4
6.1
14.2
40.7
20.8
10.7
7.4
6.1
14.2
40.9
20.8
10.7
7.4
5.8
14.5
38.2
21.6
11.8
8.1
5.8
13.9
41.5
20.8
11.3
6.7
7.1
17.2
41.9
18.5
9.4
5.8
59,954
60,860
61,773
62,729
63,642
58,246
59,119
60,002
60,930
61,820
53,137
54,021
54,915
55,853
56,763
50,187
51,052
51,922
52,831
53,715
2,950
2,969
2,993
3,021
3,047
5,109
5,098
5,087
5,078
5,058
1,708
1,742
1,771
1,799
1,821
5.6
12.2
35.9
27.1
10.4
8.7
5.6
12.1
35.9
27.2
10.5
8.8
5.6
12.1
36.0
27.1
10.4
8.8
5.6
12.1
36.0
27.1
10.4
8.7
5.5
12.2
34.8
26.3
11.4
9.7
5.3
11.8
34.9
28.3
10.9
8.8
5.9
13.3
37.0
26.6
9.4
7.8
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections≠
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64†
65–74†
75 and over
≠ These projections are based on the mid-1998 population estimates.
† Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes.
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
National Statistics
44
Population Trends 102
Table 1.3
Population: subnational
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
Mid-year
Winter 2000
Health Regional Office areas of England*
Northern and
Yorkshire
Trent
Eastern
London
South
East
South
West
West
Midlands
North
West
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
6,723
6,729
6,718
6,692
6,285
6.309
4,483
4,557
4,608
4,634
5,035
5,060
4,380
4,448
4,781
4,938
5,150
5,175
7,750
7,307
7,018
7,013
6,890
6,905
7,136
7,378
7,621
7,892
8,266
8,302
4,132
4,299
4,300
4,910
4,718
4,746
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,197
5,266
5,278
6,662
6,588
6,488
6,397
6,600
6,603
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
6,323
6,332
6,337
6,338
6,336
6,339
6.336
5,081
5,096
5,109
5,121
5,128
5,134
5,148
5,193
5,223
5,257
5,293
5,334
5,377
5,419
6,933
6,968
7,007
7,074
7,122
7,187
7,285
8,329
8,379
8,446
8,500
8,569
8,620
8,699
4,768
4,798
4,827
4,842
4,876
4,901
4,936
5,290
5,295
5,306
5,317
5,321
5,333
5,336
6,617
6,616
6,614
6,605
6,598
6,604
6,595
5.9
14.4
40.1
21.0
11.2
7.3
5.9
14.2
40.0
21.3
11.2
7.5
6.1
14.1
40.0
21.4
10.9
7.6
6.9
13.6
46.8
18.1
8.5
6.1
6.0
14.1
40.3
21.3
10.6
7.8
5.6
13.7
38.0
21.7
11.9
9.1
6.2
14.7
39.8
21.2
11.0
7.2
6.0
14.9
40.2
20.9
10.8
7.2
6,365
6,382
6,405
6,435
6,464
5,184
5,232
5,277
5,324
5,371
5,448
5,582
5,702
5,823
5,941
7,215
7,337
7,470
7,608
7,736
8,757
8,985
9,191
9,396
9,594
4,977
5,097
5,213
5,333
5,452
5,343
5,358
5,372
5,391
5,411
6,582
6,553
6,530
6,521
6,515
5.5
12.2
35.5
27.4
10.9
8.5
5.4
11.9
35.2
27.5
10.9
9.0
5.5
12.1
34.5
27.2
11.2
9.5
6.4
12.5
41.5
26.3
7.7
5.6
5.5
12.1
34.9
27.4
10.9
9.2
4.9
11.2
32.8
27.8
12.4
10.8
5.7
12.5
34.9
27.3
10.7
8.9
5.7
12.5
35.6
27.4
10.5
8.3
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections≠
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)◊
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64†
65–74†
75 and over
* The Regional Office boundaries were revised from 1 April 1999. See Health Statistics Quarterly 03 In Brief for details of the changes. Earlier years’ figures have been revised to reflect the new
boundaries.
≠ These projections are based on the mid-1996 population estimates and are consistent with the 1996-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department.
† Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes.
◊ The percentages shown in this table are correct and show the proportion in each age group for 2021. These replace the percentage figures shown in Health Statistics Quarterly numbers 01,
02 and 03, and Population Trends 95 and 96, which were miscalculated.
Note: Figures may not add exactly because of rounding.
45
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 1.4
Winter 2000
Population: subnational
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
Mid-year
Government Office Regions of England
North
East
North
West*
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
2,679
2,671
2,636
2,601
2,603
2,609
7,108
7,043
6,940
6,852
6,885
6,890
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,906
4,983
5,002
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,919
4,035
4,062
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,197
5,265
5,278
4,454
4,672
4,854
5,012
5,150
5,175
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,803
6,890
6,905
6,830
7,029
7,245
7,492
7,679
7,712
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,560
4,718
4,746
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2,612
2,610
2,605
2,600
2,594
2,590
2,581
6,903
6,902
6,900
6,891
6,885
6,891
6,881
5,014
5,025
5,029
5,036
5,037
5,043
5,047
4,083
4,102
4,124
4,141
4,156
4,169
4,191
5,290
5,295
5,306
5,317
5,321
5,333
5,336
5,193
5,223
5,257
5,293
5,334
5,377
5,419
6,933
6,968
7,007
7,074
7,122
7,187
7,285
7,737
7,784
7,847
7,895
7,959
8,004
8,078
4,768
4,798
4,827
4,842
4,876
4,901
4,936
5.7
14.4
40.1
21.1
11.6
7.1
6.0
14.8
40.1
21.0
10.9
7.2
6.0
14.5
40.4
20.8
10.9
7.4
5.9
14.2
40.0
21.5
11.0
7.4
6.2
14.7
39.8
21.2
11.0
7.2
6.1
14.1
40.0
21.4
10.9
7.6
6.9
13.6
46.8
18.1
8.5
6.1
6.0
14.0
40.2
21.3
10.6
7.8
5.6
13.7
38.0
21.7
11.9
9.1
2,579
2,555
2,536
2,521
2,509
6,871
6,843
6,820
6,813
6,808
5,071
5,098
5,130
5,165
5,200
4,234
4,312
4,384
4,455
4,523
5,343
5,358
5,372
5,391
5,411
5,448
5,582
5,702
5,823
5,941
7,215
7,337
7,470
7,609
7,736
8,134
8,344
8,534
8,722
8,905
4,977
5,098
5,213
5,333
5,452
5.4
12.1
35.1
27.7
11.2
8.4
5.7
12.4
35.4
27.5
10.6
8.4
5.6
12.2
35.9
27.3
10.6
8.4
5.4
12.0
35.1
27.4
11.1
9.0
5.7
12.5
34.9
27.3
10.7
8.9
5.5
12.1
34.5
27.2
11.2
9.5
6.4
12.5
41.5
26.3
7.7
5.6
5.4
12.1
34.9
27.4
10.9
9.3
4.9
11.2
32.8
27.8
12.4
10.8
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections≠
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)◊
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64†
65–74†
75 and over
*
≠
†
◊
The North West GOR was created on 3 August 1998 as a merger of the former North West and Merseyside GORs.
These projections are based on the mid-1996 population estimates and are consistent with the 1996-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department.
Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes.
The percentages shown in this table are correct and show the proportion in each age group for 2021. These replace the percentage figures shown in Health Statistics Quarterly numbers 01,
02 and 03, and Population Trends 95 and 96, which were miscalculated.
Note: Figures may not add exactly because of rounding.
National Statistics
46
Population Trends 102
Table 1.5
Population: age and sex
Numbers (thousands)
Winter 2000
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
United Kingdom
Persons
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,859
57,814
58,198
58,401
58,612
58,807
59,014
59,237
59,501
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
899
677
730
749
794
758
758
734
719
736
715
708
3,654
3,043
2,726
2,892
3,094
3,129
3,116
3,101
3,044
2,976
2,956
2,916
8,916
9.176
8,147
7,161
7,175
7,417
7,484
7,528
7,596
7,667
7,709
7,763
8,144
8.126
9,019
9,280
8,247
7,729
7,555
7,448
7,323
7,230
7,190
7,199
6,971
7,868
8,010
8,047
9,057
9,293
9,376
9,411
9,423
9,360
9,232
9,064
6,512
6,361
6,774
7,719
7,955
7,787
7,836
7,931
8,093
8,294
8,505
8,746
10,202
9,836
9,540
9,212
9,500
10,070
10,277
10,445
10,582
10,697
10,820
10,951
3,222
3,131
2,935
3,069
2,888
2,839
2,807
2,784
2,772
2,781
2,818
2,861
4,764
5,112
5,195
5,020
5,067
5,169
5,223
5,127
5,058
5,005
4,965
4,929
2,159
2,348
2,677
2,988
3,139
3,022
2,954
3,055
3,126
3,176
3,205
3,222
358
390
..
..
640
689
704
721
729
734
742
750
127
147
..
..
258
295
309
326
341
358
380
393
14,257
13,797
12,543
11,676
11,742
11,966
12,075
12,107
12,099
12,107
12,110
12,114
32,548
32,757
33,780
34,847
35,469
35,590
35,691
35,849
36,035
36,213
36,397
36,634
9,123
9,663
10,035
10,336
10,602
10,641
10,634
10,656
10,673
10,693
10,730
10,753
27,167
27,360
27.412
27.698
28,248
28,477
28,595
28,731
28,860
28,992
29,128
29,299
461
348
374
384
407
388
389
376
369
377
366
363
1,874
1,564
1,400
1,483
1,588
1,603
1,596
1,588
1,560
1,526
1,516
1,495
4,576
4,711
4,184
3,682
3,688
3,808
3,841
3,862
3,897
3,933
3,953
3,980
4,137
4,145
4,596
4,743
4,226
3,968
3,880
3,824
3,759
3,709
3,687
3,694
3,530
3,981
4,035
4,063
4,591
4,723
4,769
4,796
4,808
4,782
4,721
4,642
3,271
3,214
3,409
3,872
3,987
3,903
3,928
3,984
4,073
4,181
4,294
4,425
4,970
4,820
4,711
4,572
4,732
5,016
5,118
5,201
5,270
5,326
5,387
5,454
1,507
1,466
1,376
1,463
1,390
1,373
1,363
1,358
1,355
1,360
1,380
1,400
1,999
2,204
2,264
2,206
2,272
2,333
2,363
2,330
2,310
2,298
2,290
2,284
716
775
922
1,064
1,152
1,118
1,097
1,148
1,186
1,216
1,237
1,255
97
101
..
..
167
187
193
201
206
211
218
223
29
31
..
..
47
56
59
63
67
72
79
83
7,318
7,083
6,439
5,998
6,033
6,140
6,194
6,208
6,206
6,210
6,210
6,211
17,008
17.167
17,646
18,264
18,576
18,644
18,689
18,780
18,884
18,984
19,094
19,243
2,841
3,111
3,327
3,437
3,639
3,693
3,712
3,742
3,770
3,798
3,824
3,845
28,761
28,856
28,946
29,160
29,566
29,720
29,805
29,881
29,948
30,022
30,108
30.202
437
330
356
364
387
370
369
358
350
359
349
345
1,779
1,479
1,327
1,408
1,505
1,526
1,520
1,513
1,484
1,450
1,440
1,421
4,340
4,465
3,963
3,480
3,487
3,609
3,644
3,665
3,699
3,734
3,756
3,783
4,008
3,980
4,423
4,538
4,021
3,761
3,675
3,624
3,565
3,521
3,503
3,505
3,441
3,887
3,975
3,985
4,466
4,570
4,608
4,616
4,615
4,579
4,511
4,422
3,241
3,147
3,365
3,847
3,968
3,883
3,908
3,947
4,020
4,113
4,211
4,321
5,231
5,015
4,829
4,639
4,769
5,053
5,159
5,244
5,312
5,372
5,433
5,497
1,715
1,665
1,559
1,606
1,498
1,465
1,444
1,427
1,418
1,421
1,438
1,460
2,765
2,908
2,931
2,814
2,795
2,836
2,861
2,797
2,748
2,707
2,674
2,645
1,443
1,573
1,756
1,924
1,987
1,904
1,856
1,907
1,941
1,960
1,968
1,967
261
289
..
..
472
503
511
519
523
522
525
527
97
116
..
..
210
240
250
263
274
286
301
309
6,938
6,714
6,104
5,678
5,709
5,826
5,881
5,898
5.893
5,897
5,900
5,903
15,540
15,590
16,134
16,583
16,894
16,946
17,002
17,068
17,152
17,229
17,302
17,391
6,282
6,552
6,708
6,899
6,963
6,948
6,923
6,914
6,903
6,896
6,906
6,908
England and Wales
Persons
1971
49,152
1976
49,459
1981
49,634
1986
50,162
1991
51,100
1993
51,439
1994
51,621
1995
51,820
1996
52,010
1997
52,211
1998
52,428
1999
52,690
782
585
634
655
702
670
671
649
636
651
633
628
3,170
2,642
2,372
2,528
2,728
2,764
2,752
2,739
2,688
2,632
2,615
2,581
7,705
7,967
7,085
6,243
6,281
6,504
6,568
6,613
6,683
6,751
6,793
6,847
7,117
7,077
7,873
8,134
7,237
6,768
6,612
6,521
6,411
6,332
6,303
6,318
6,164
6,979
7,086
7,088
8,008
8,219
8,293
8,329
8,342
8,290
8,177
8,034
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,863
7,056
6,887
6,925
7,003
7,146
7,325
7,515
7,734
9,034
8,707
8,433
8,136
8,407
8,929
9,118
9,272
9,397
9,503
9,613
9,730
2,853
2,777
2,607
2,725
2,553
2,507
2,478
2,458
2,447
2,456
2,490
2,529
4,228
4,540
4,619
4,470
4,506
4,596
4,644
4,554
4,490
4,440
4,400
4,367
1,926
2,093
2,388
2,673
2,810
2,704
2,642
2,734
2,800
2,844
2,871
2,885
323
351
383
465
576
623
636
651
658
661
669
676
115
135
157
184
233
268
281
297
311
327
348
360
12,334
11,973
10,910
10,190
10,303
10,515
10,618
10,653
10,655
10,672
10,682
10,694
28,710
28,894
29,796
30,759
31,351
31,445
31,530
31,676
31,851
32,018
32,192
32,421
8,108
8,593
8,928
9,213
9,446
9,480
9,473
9,491
9,505
9,522
9,554
9,574
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
23,897
24,089
24,160
24,456
24,995
25,198
25,304
25,433
25,557
25,684
25,817
25,985
402
300
324
336
360
343
344
333
327
334
324
322
1,626
1,358
1,218
1,297
1,401
1,416
1,410
1,403
1,378
1,350
1,342
1,323
3,957
4,091
3,639
3,211
3,231
3,341
3,371
3,394
3,430
3,463
3,484
3,511
3,615
3,610
4,011
4,156
3,710
3,476
3,396
3,348
3,291
3,249
3,233
3,244
3,129
3,532
3,569
3,579
4,065
4,184
4,225
4,252
4,265
4,243
4,190
4,123
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,445
3,539
3,456
3,475
3,523
3,602
3,700
3,803
3,923
4,414
4,280
4,178
4,053
4,199
4,458
4,551
4,626
4,689
4,740
4,795
4,854
1,337
1,304
1,227
1,302
1,234
1,218
1,209
1,204
1,201
1,206
1,224
1,243
1,778
1,963
2,020
1,972
2,027
2,082
2,109
2,078
2,059
2,048
2,040
2,034
637
690
825
954
1,035
1,004
985
1,032
1,066
1,094
1,113
1,129
86
91
94
115
151
170
175
183
188
192
197
202
26
29
32
35
43
51
53
57
61
66
72
76
6,334
6,148
5,601
5,236
5,296
5,397
5,448
5,465
5,466
5,475
5,479
5,484
15,036
15,169
15,589
16,143
16,442
16,495
16,533
16,619
16,716
16,810
16,915
17,060
2,527
2,773
2,970
3,076
3,257
3,306
3,323
3,349
3,375
3,399
3,422
3,441
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
25,255
25,370
25,474
25,706
26,104
26,241
26,317
26,387
26,453
26,527
26,611
26,705
380
285
310
319
342
326
327
316
310
317
309
306
1,544
1,284
1,154
1,231
1,328
1,348
1,342
1,335
1,310
1,282
1,274
1,258
3,749
3,876
3,446
3,032
3,050
3,163
3,197
3,219
3,253
3,287
3,309
3,336
3,502
3,467
3,863
3,978
3,527
3,293
3,216
3,172
3,120
3,083
3,070
3,074
3,036
3,447
3,517
3,509
3,943
4,035
4,069
4,076
4,077
4,046
3,987
3,911
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,418
3,517
3,431
3,449
3,480
3,544
3,625
3,712
3,811
4,620
4,428
4,255
4,083
4,208
4,471
4,567
4,646
4,709
4,763
4,819
4,876
1,516
1,473
1,380
1,422
1,319
1,289
1,270
1,254
1,246
1,250
1,266
1,286
2,450
2,577
2,599
2,498
2,479
2,514
2,536
2,477
2,430
2,392
2,361
2,334
1,289
1,403
1,564
1,718
1,775
1,700
1,656
1,702
1,733
1,750
1,758
1,756
236
261
289
349
425
453
461
468
471
470
472
474
89
106
126
149
191
218
228
240
250
262
276
284
6,000
5,826
5,309
4,953
5,007
5,117
5,170
5,188
5,188
5,196
5,203
5,210
13,673
13,725
14,207
14,616
14,908
14,950
14,997
15,058
15,134
15,208
15,277
15,361
5,581
5,820
5,958
6,137
6,189
6,173
6,150
6,141
6,130
6,123
6,132
6,133
..
Under 1
Figures not available.
47
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 1.5
continued
Winter 2000
Population: age and sex
Numbers (thousands)
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
England
Persons
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,342
48,208
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
49,284
49,495
49,753
739
551
598
618
663
633
634
615
603
616
599
595
2,996
2,491
2,235
2,385
2,574
2,611
2,601
2,589
2,543
2,490
2,475
2,443
7,272
7,513
6,678
5,885
5,916
6,125
6,186
6,231
6,298
6,364
6,406
6,459
6,731
6,688
7,440
7,692
6,840
6,394
6,246
6,158
6,054
5,980
5,954
5,965
5,840
6,599
6,703
6,717
7,599
7,803
7,873
7,909
7,922
7,873
7,765
7,634
5,421
5,298
5,663
6,484
6,665
6,508
6,545
6.622
6,761
6,933
7,117
7,329
8,515
8,199
7,948
7,672
7,920
8,415
8,593
8,738
8,856
8,956
9,060
9,169
2,690
2,616
2,449
2,559
2,399
2,356
2,329
2,310
2,299
2,308
2,340
2,378
3,976
4,274
4,347
4,199
4,222
4,308
4,355
4,270
4,210
4,164
4,127
4,098
1,816
1,972
2,249
2,518
2,645
2,541
2,481
2,568
2,629
2,670
2,694
2,707
306
332
362
438
543
587
600
613
620
623
630
637
109
127
149
174
220
253
265
280
293
308
327
339
11,648
11,293
10,285
9,608
9,711
9,913
10,012
10,048
10,053
10,071
10,083
10,097
27,128
27,275
28,133
29,070
29,627
29,720
29,803
29,946
30,114
30,275
30,443
30,665
7,636
8,092
8,403
8,665
8,870
8,899
8,893
8,909
8,922
8,939
8,968
8,990
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
22,569
22,728
22,795
23,086
23,588
23,782
23,882
24,008
24,129
24,251
24,378
24,543
380
283
306
317
340
325
326
315
309
316
307
305
1,537
1,280
1,147
1.224
1,322
1,338
1,332
1,327
1,304
1,278
1,270
1,252
3,734
3,858
3,430
3,026
3,043
3,146
3,175
3,198
3,233
3,265
3,285
3,312
3,421
3,413
3,790
3,931
3,507
3,282
3,207
3,160
3,106
3,067
3,052
3,061
2,965
3,339
3,377
3,392
3,859
3,974
4,012
4,039
4,051
4,030
3,978
3,918
2,733
2,686
2,856
3,255
3,344
3,267
3,286
3,333
3,410
3,504
3,603
3,720
4,161
4,031
3,938
3,822
3,957
4,202
4,289
4,360
4,420
4,468
4,519
4,575
1,261
1,228
1,154
1,224
1,159
1,145
1,136
1,132
1,129
1,134
1,151
1,169
1,671
1,849
1,902
1,853
1,900
1,951
1,977
1,948
1,931
1,921
1,913
1,908
599
649
777
900
975
945
926
969
1,002
1,027
1,045
1,060
107
85
89
109
143
160
166
173
177
181
186
191
25
27
30
33
41
48
50
54
58
62
68
72
5,982
5,798
5,280
4,937
4,991
5,089
5,137
5,155
5,158
5,168
5,172
5,178
14,209
14,320
14,717
15,254
15,539
15,590
15,626
15,709
15,803
15,893
15,994
16,134
2,377
2,610
2,798
2,895
3,058
3,103
3,119
3,144
3,167
3,191
3,212
3,231
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
23,843
23,932
24,026
24,257
24,620
24,751
24,825
24,896
24,960
25,033
25,117
25,210
359
269
292
301
324
309
309
300
293
300
292
290
1,459
1,211
1,088
1,161
1,253
1,273
1,268
1,262
1,239
1,213
1,205
1,191
3,538
3,656
3,248
2,859
2,873
2,979
3,010
3,033
3,065
3,099
3,120
3,146
3,310
3,275
3,650
3,761
3,333
3,111
3,039
2,998
2,948
2,913
2,902
2,904
2,875
3,260
3,327
3,325
3,739
3,829
3,862
3,871
3,872
3,843
3,787
3,716
2,688
2,612
2,807
3,229
3,322
3,241
3,259
3,289
3,351
3,429
3,514
3,609
4,354
4,168
4,009
3,850
3,964
4,212
4,304
4,378
4,437
4,488
4,540
4,594
1,429
1,387
1,295
1,335
1,239
1,211
1,193
1,178
1,170
1,174
1,189
1,209
2,305
2,425
2,445
2,346
2,323
2,357
2,378
2,322
2,279
2,244
2,214
2,190
1,217
1,323
1,472
1,618
1,670
1,597
1,555
1,598
1,627
1,643
1,649
1,647
309
246
273
330
400
427
434
441
443
442
444
446
85
100
119
141
179
205
214
226
235
246
260
267
5,666
5,495
5,004
4,671
4,720
4,824
4,874
4,893
4,894
4,903
4,911
4,919
12,918
14,968
13,416
13,816
14,088
14,131
14,177
14,237
14,311
14,382
14,450
14,531
5,259
5,481
5,605
5,770
5,812
5,796
5,774
5,765
5,755
5,748
5,756
5,760
Wales
Persons
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,820
2,891
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
2,927
2,933
2,937
43
33
36
37
39
36
36
35
34
35
34
33
173
151
136
143
154
153
151
149
145
141
140
138
433
453
407
358
365
379
382
383
385
387
388
388
386
388
434
441
397
375
367
363
357
352
349
353
325
379
383
371
409
416
420
420
420
417
413
400
315
309
333
378
391
379
379
380
385
392
398
405
519
509
485
464
486
514
525
534
541
547
553
561
164
161
158
166
154
151
149
148
148
148
150
151
252
267
272
271
284
288
289
284
280
276
273
269
110
121
139
155
165
163
161
166
171
174
177
178
16
19
21
26
33
36
36
37
38
39
39
39
6
7
8
10
13
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
686
680
626
582
592
602
606
605
602
601
599
597
1,582
1,618
1,663
1,690
1,724
1,725
1,727
1,730
1,737
1,743
1,749
1,756
472
501
525
548
576
580
580
581
582
583
585
584
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1,329
1,361
1,365
1,370
1,407
1,417
1,422
1,425
1,428
1,433
1,439
1,442
22
17
18
19
20
19
19
18
17
18
17
17
89
78
70
73
79
78
77
76
74
72
72
71
222
233
209
185
188
195
196
196
197
198
199
199
194
197
221
225
203
193
190
188
185
182
181
183
164
193
193
187
206
210
213
214
214
214
212
206
158
157
168
190
195
189
189
190
192
196
199
203
253
249
240
231
242
256
262
266
269
272
275
279
76
75
73
79
74
73
72
72
72
72
73
74
107
114
118
119
128
131
131
130
128
127
126
125
38
41
48
54
60
60
60
62
65
67
68
69
6
5
5
7
8
9
10
10
10
11
11
12
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
352
350
321
300
305
309
311
310
308
308
307
306
827
849
871
889
904
905
907
910
913
917
922
926
150
162
173
181
199
203
204
206
207
208
210
210
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1,412
1,438
1,448
1,450
1,484
1,490
1,491
1,491
1,493
1,494
1,495
1,495
21
16
18
18
19
18
18
17
16
17
16
16
85
73
66
70
75
75
74
73
71
69
68
67
211
220
199
173
177
185
186
187
188
189
189
189
191
191
213
217
194
181
177
175
172
170
168
170
161
187
190
184
203
206
207
206
206
204
201
195
157
153
165
188
195
190
190
190
193
196
198
202
265
260
246
233
244
258
263
268
272
275
278
282
88
86
85
87
80
78
77
76
76
76
76
77
146
152
154
152
156
157
158
154
151
148
147
144
73
80
91
101
105
103
101
104
106
107
109
109
16
14
16
20
25
26
27
27
28
28
28
27
4
6
6
8
11
13
13
14
15
15
16
17
335
330
305
282
288
293
295
295
294
293
292
291
755
770
791
800
820
819
820
820
824
826
827
831
322
339
352
367
377
377
376
376
375
375
375
374
National Statistics
48
Population Trends 102
Table 1.5
continued
Population: age and sex
Numbers (thousands)
Winter 2000
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
Scotland
Persons
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,123
5,107
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
5,123
5,120
5,119
86
67
69
66
66
64
63
61
59
60
58
57
358
291
249
257
259
260
261
261
255
247
243
238
912
904
780
657
634
648
651
649
647
649
650
651
781
806
875
870
754
705
690
677
663
651
643
641
617
692
724
742
809
825
829
827
821
809
793
771
612
591
603
665
699
694
703
715
728
744
760
776
926
897
880
849
853
888
902
911
919
924
932
942
294
282
260
273
265
262
260
258
256
255
257
259
430
460
460
435
441
451
456
450
446
443
442
440
183
202
232
251
259
249
243
250
255
259
260
262
29
31
35
41
50
52
53
55
56
56
57
58
9
11
14
15
19
21
21
22
23
24
24
25
1,440
1,352
1,188
1,063
1,023
1,032
1,038
1,036
1,028
1,021
1,014
1,008
2,986
3,023
3,110
3,171
3,174
3,176
3,183
3,187
3,185
3,185
3,186
3,190
810
858
882
889
910
912
911
914
915
917
920
921
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2,516
2,517
2,495
2,474
2,470
2,479
2,486
2,489
2,486
2,484
2,484
2,486
44
34
35
34
34
33
32
31
30
31
30
29
184
149
128
131
133
133
133
133
130
126
124
122
467
463
400
337
325
332
333
332
331
332
332
333
394
408
445
445
385
360
353
346
339
333
329
327
306
347
364
375
407
415
418
416
413
407
399
388
299
290
298
332
348
345
350
356
362
371
378
386
440
429
424
410
415
434
441
446
450
453
457
462
134
128
118
127
124
123
122
121
121
121
122
123
176
193
194
184
192
197
200
198
197
196
197
196
60
65
77
86
91
88
86
90
92
95
96
98
8
8
8
10
12
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
738
693
610
545
524
528
531
530
526
522
519
516
1,530
1,556
1,603
1,647
1,646
1,648
1,651
1,653
1,651
1,651
1,652
1,654
247
269
282
283
299
302
304
307
309
311
314
315
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2,720
2,716
2,685
2,649
2,637
2,642
2,646
2,647
2,642
2,638
2,636
2,634
42
32
33
32
32
32
31
30
29
29
28
28
174
142
121
126
126
127
128
128
125
121
118
116
445
440
380
320
309
316
318
317
316
317
317
318
387
398
430
425
369
345
337
331
324
318
315
314
311
345
359
368
402
409
412
411
408
403
394
383
313
301
305
334
351
349
353
359
366
374
382
390
485
468
456
439
437
454
461
465
469
471
475
480
160
154
142
146
141
139
138
136
135
135
135
136
254
267
265
250
249
254
256
252
249
247
245
244
122
137
155
165
168
161
157
160
163
164
164
165
20
23
27
32
37
39
40
40
41
41
41
41
7
8
11
12
16
17
17
18
19
19
19
20
701
659
579
518
499
504
507
506
502
498
495
492
1,455
1,468
1,506
1,525
1,528
1,528
1,532
1,534
1,534
1,534
1,535
1,536
563
589
600
606
611
609
607
607
606
605
606
606
Northern Ireland
Persons
1971
1,540
1976
1,524
1981
1,543
1986
1,574
1991
1,607
1993
1,638
1994
1,648
1995
1,655
1996
1,669
1997
1,680
1998
1,689
1999
1,692
31
26
27
28
26
25
24
24
24
25
24
23
126
111
106
107
106
105
103
102
100
98
98
97
299
306
282
261
260
265
266
265
266
267
266
265
247
243
271
277
256
256
253
250
249
247
244
241
189
198
200
217
240
249
254
255
260
261
262
259
165
163
175
190
200
205
209
213
218
225
230
236
243
231
227
227
241
252
256
261
266
270
275
279
74
73
68
71
70
70
69
69
69
70
71
72
106
111
116
115
120
122
123
123
123
122
122
122
51
53
57
64
69
69
69
71
72
73
74
75
7
8
..
..
14
14
15
15
15
16
16
16
2
2
..
..
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
7
483
471
444
423
417
419
419
418
417
415
414
411
853
840
874
917
945
969
978
985
999
1,010
1,018
1,022
205
212
224
234
246
250
250
252
253
255
257
258
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
755
754
757
768
783
801
805
809
816
823
827
829
16
13
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
64
58
54
55
54
54
53
52
51
50
50
50
152
157
145
134
133
136
136
136
136
137
136
136
127
127
140
142
131
132
131
129
128
128
126
124
95
102
102
109
119
124
126
127
130
131
132
131
81
81
87
95
100
102
104
106
108
111
113
116
116
111
109
110
118
123
126
128
131
133
135
137
36
34
32
33
32
32
32
32
33
33
34
35
45
47
50
50
53
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
19
19
21
23
26
26
26
26
27
28
28
28
2
3
..
..
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
1
0
..
..
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
246
242
228
217
213
215
215
214
213
213
212
211
441
442
454
474
487
501
506
509
516
523
527
529
67
70
75
77
83
85
85
86
87
87
88
89
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
786
769
786
805
824
838
842
846
853
857
861
863
15
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
12
12
11
62
53
52
52
52
51
50
50
49
48
48
47
147
149
137
127
127
129
130
129
129
130
130
129
119
116
130
135
125
123
122
121
121
119
118
117
95
96
98
107
121
125
127
128
130
129
129
128
84
81
88
96
100
103
105
107
110
114
117
120
126
120
118
118
123
128
131
133
135
137
139
141
39
38
37
38
38
38
37
36
36
37
37
38
61
64
66
65
67
69
69
69
69
68
68
68
32
33
37
41
44
44
43
44
45
45
46
46
5
6
..
..
10
11
11
11
11
11
12
12
2
2
..
..
4
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
237
229
216
206
203
205
205
204
203
202
202
201
411
398
420
442
458
468
472
476
483
487
491
493
138
143
150
157
163
165
165
166
167
168
168
169
49
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 1.6
Winter 2000
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Mid-year
England and Wales
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
Aged
16 and over
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
36,818
37,486
38,724
39,887
40,796
40,925
41,003
41,167
41,356
41,540
41,746
41,996
4,173
4,369
5,013
5,673
6,024
6,147
6,221
6,345
6,482
6,622
6,768
6,936
12,522
12,511
12,238
11,886
11,745
11,580
11,492
11,415
11,339
11,256
11,185
11,128
187
376
611
919
1,200
1,342
1,413
1,480
1,543
1,604
1,659
1,716
682
686
698
695
731
732
730
729
728
726
725
721
17,563
17,941
18,559
19,173
19,699
19,801
19,855
19,968
20,091
20,209
20,338
20,501
3,583
3,597
4,114
4,613
4,822
4,906
4,958
5,058
5,171
5,292
5,415
5,539
12,566
12,538
12,284
11,994
11,838
11,661
11,583
11,488
11,406
11,319
11,244
11,185
296
533
828
1,164
1,459
1,610
1,684
1,754
1,819
1,882
1,940
2,001
2,810
2,877
2,939
2,943
2,978
2,946
2,922
2,898
2,870
2,838
2,808
2,771
19,255
19,545
20,165
20,714
21,097
21,124
21,147
21,199
21,265
21,331
21,408
21,495
16–19
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2,666
2,901
3,310
3,144
2,680
2,421
2,360
2,374
2,436
2,517
2,578
2,595
1,327
1,454
1,675
1,601
1,372
1,242
1,212
1,220
1,251
1,291
1,322
1,332
34
28
20
10
8
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,362
1,482
1,694
1,611
1,380
1,246
1,215
1,222
1,253
1,293
1,324
1,334
1,163
1,289
1,523
1,483
1,267
1,157
1,131
1,139
1,171
1,212
1,242
1,250
142
129
93
49
32
18
14
13
12
11
11
11
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,305
1,419
1,616
1,533
1,300
1,175
1,145
1,152
1,183
1,224
1,254
1,261
20–24
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
3,773
3,395
3,744
4,203
3,966
3,770
3,625
3,495
3,329
3,177
3,084
3,085
1,211
1,167
1,420
1,794
1,764
1,742
1,699
1,658
1,597
1,536
1,500
1,511
689
557
466
322
249
182
152
127
105
87
76
68
3
4
10
14
12
8
7
6
5
4
3
3
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,904
1,728
1,896
2,130
2,025
1,933
1,858
1,791
1,707
1,628
1,579
1,582
745
725
1,007
1,382
1,421
1,432
1,416
1,404
1,369
1,333
1,314
1,328
1,113
925
811
658
490
381
330
282
238
204
180
165
9
16
27
32
29
23
20
17
15
12
10
9
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1,869
1,667
1,847
2,072
1,941
1,838
1,767
1,703
1,622
1,549
1,505
1,503
25–29
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
3,267
3,758
3,372
3,724
4,246
4,220
4,168
4,094
4,045
3,972
3,883
3,774
431
533
588
841
1,183
1,263
1,293
1,326
1,368
1,401
1,422
1,426
1,206
1,326
1,057
956
894
807
754
696
639
577
520
469
16
39
54
79
85
80
76
70
64
58
51
45
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1,654
1,900
1,700
1,877
2,163
2,152
2,124
2,092
2,071
2,037
1,994
1,941
215
267
331
527
800
880
908
936
977
1,014
1,047
1,062
1,367
1,522
1,247
1,204
1,158
1,062
1,011
947
887
818
750
686
29
65
89
113
123
124
122
116
109
101
91
84
4
5
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1,614
1,859
1,671
1,847
2,083
2,069
2,044
2,002
1,975
1,935
1,889
1,833
30–34
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2,897
3,220
3,715
3,341
3,762
3,999
4,126
4,235
4,296
4,318
4,294
4,260
206
236
318
356
535
662
732
799
855
903
938
976
1,244
1,338
1,451
1,200
1,206
1,194
1,187
1,177
1,155
1,125
1,085
1,041
23
55
97
125
160
174
179
182
181
177
171
163
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
1,475
1,632
1,869
1,683
1,903
2,032
2,100
2,160
2,194
2,207
2,196
2,182
111
118
165
206
335
418
467
518
560
598
627
652
1,269
1,388
1,544
1,292
1,330
1,338
1,340
1,333
1,316
1,287
1,247
1,205
34
75
129
154
189
205
213
218
221
222
219
216
8
8
9
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
1,422
1,588
1,846
1,658
1,859
1,967
2,025
2,075
2,103
2,111
2,098
2,078
Note: Population estimates by marital status for 1971 and 1976 are based on the 1971 Census and those for 1981 and 1986 are based on the 1981 Census and have not been rebased using
the 1991 Census.
National Statistics
50
Population Trends 102
Table 1.6
continued
Winter 2000
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Mid-year
England and Wales
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
35–44
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,863
7,056
6,887
6,925
7,003
7,146
7,325
7,515
7,734
317
286
316
397
482
522
556
601
657
725
802
890
2,513
2,442
2,519
2,743
2,658
2,500
2,463
2,446
2,449
2,458
2,467
2,483
48
104
178
293
388
423
444
464
483
503
520
537
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
14
14
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,444
3,539
3,456
3,475
3,523
3,602
3,700
3,803
3,923
201
167
170
213
280
316
343
374
414
459
510
570
2,529
2,427
2,540
2,816
2,760
2,612
2,587
2,568
2,575
2,593
2,612
2,634
66
129
222
350
444
473
491
509
527
545
563
579
48
42
41
39
34
31
29
29
28
28
27
27
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,419
3,517
3,431
3,449
3,480
3,544
3,625
3,712
3,811
45–64
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
11,887
11,484
11,040
10,860
10,960
11,436
11,596
11,730
11,844
11,959
12,103
12,259
502
496
480
461
456
479
489
500
512
524
541
560
4,995
4,787
4,560
4,423
4,394
4,532
4,564
4,581
4,587
4,590
4,604
4,618
81
141
218
332
456
544
587
630
673
715
758
802
173
160
147
141
127
122
120
119
118
117
117
117
5,751
5,583
5,405
5,356
5,433
5,677
5,759
5,830
5,890
5,946
6,019
6,097
569
462
386
326
292
297
300
305
310
318
328
340
4,709
4,568
4,358
4,221
4,211
4,376
4,422
4,452
4,473
4,494
4,523
4,554
125
188
271
388
521
615
659
703
746
789
832
875
733
683
620
569
503
471
456
440
425
412
401
392
6,136
5,901
5,635
5,504
5,527
5,759
5,837
5,900
5,954
6,013
6,085
6,162
6,592
7,119
7,548
7,752
8,127
8,191
8,203
8,237
8,259
8,272
8,288
8,288
179
197
216
223
231
237
239
241
242
242
242
241
1,840
2,033
2,167
2,233
2,337
2,360
2,368
2,385
2,401
2,417
2,432
2,446
17
33
54
76
99
113
121
128
137
147
156
166
492
510
534
539
589
596
595
595
594
593
592
587
2,527
2,773
2,971
3,070
3,257
3,306
3,323
3,349
3,375
3,399
3,422
3,441
580
569
533
475
427
405
393
382
370
358
347
336
1,437
1,579
1,692
1,754
1,858
1,873
1,879
1,893
1,904
1,912
1,921
1,930
32
60
90
127
153
170
179
190
201
213
225
237
2,016
2,138
2,263
2,325
2,433
2,436
2,429
2,422
2,410
2,390
2,372
2,344
4,065
4,347
4,578
4,681
4,870
4,885
4,880
4,887
4,884
4,873
4,866
4,847
65 and over
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
See note opposite.
51
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 1.7
Winter 2000
Components of population change
Numbers (thousands)
Mid-year to mid-year
Population at
start of period
Total
annual
change
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
Live
births
Deaths
Natural
change
(Live births –
deaths)
Total
Net civilian migration
To/from
To/from
rest of UK
Irish Republic
Population at end
of period
To/from
rest of the
world
Other
changes*
}
United Kingdom
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,859
57,814
58,013
58,198
58,401
58,612
58,807
59,014
59,237
+ 58
+ 27
+100
+191
+199
+185
+203
+211
+196
+207
+228
+264
766
705
732
782
793
764
763
738
723
740
718
711
670
662
662
647
639
635
652
632
646
638
618
635
+ 96
+ 42
+ 70
135
+154
+130
+111
+106
+ 77
+102
+100
+ 76
– 55
– 33
+ 21
+ 60
+ 45
+ 43
+ 74
+108
+110
+ 97
+114
+187
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
England and Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
49,152
49,459
49,634
50,162
51,100
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
52,211
52,428
+ 61
+ 35
+106
+187
+177
+162
+181
+200
+190
+201
+217
+262
644
612
639
689
700
675
675
653
640
655
636
631
588
582
582
569
563
558
574
557
569
563
544
559
+ 76
+ 30
+ 57
+120
+137
+117
+102
+ 96
+ 71
+ 92
+ 92
+ 72
– 28
– 9
+ 40
+ 71
+ 41
+ 35
+ 63
+104
+110
+101
+118
+189
+ 10
+ 11
+ 10
+ 6
– 12
– 8
– 6
+ 1
+ 3
+ 7
+ 1
+ 3
– 9
– 3
+ 4
+ 12
– 6
– 2
+ 1
+ 1
– 1
– 5
– 10
– 9
England
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,342
48,208
48,378
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
49,284
49,495
+ 50
+ 32
+104
+173
+170
+154
+175
+196
+186
+195
+210
+258
627
577
603
651
662
638
638
618
606
620
603
598
552
546
547
535
529
524
538
522
534
528
511
524
+ 75
+ 31
+ 56
+116
+133
+114
+100
+ 96
+ 72
+ 92
+ 92
+ 74
– 35
– 11
+ 39
+ 60
+ 40
+ 32
+ 59
+100
+104
+ 96
+112
+183
+ 1
+ 6
+ 7
– 5
– 15
– 11
– 8
–
+ 1
+ 4
– 2
+ 1
– 9
– 3
+ 4
+ 12
– 5
– 2
+ 1
+ 1
– 1
– 5
– 10
– 9
Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,820
2,891
2,899
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
2,927
2,933
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
12
3
1
14
7
8
7
4
4
6
6
4
37
35
36
38
38
37
37
35
34
35
34
33
36
36
35
34
34
34
36
34
35
35
34
35
+
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
1
1
1
4
4
3
1
1
1
–
–
2
+ 7
+ 2
+ 1
+ 11
+ 2
+ 3
+ 4
+ 4
+ 6
+ 6
+ 6
+ 6
+ 10
+ 5
+ 3
+ 11
+ 4
+ 3
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
+ 3
+ 3
+ 2
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Scotland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,123
5,107
5,111
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
5,123
5,120
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
–
11
11
3
4
9
12
4
9
6
3
1
73
66
66
66
67
64
63
61
59
60
58
57
64
64
64
62
61
62
63
60
61
60
59
60
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
9
2
2
3
6
2
1
1
2
–
1
4
– 14
– 16
– 14
– 7
–
+ 5
+ 10
+ 4
– 6
– 6
– 4
+ 1
– 4
– 7
– 7
– 2
+ 10
+ 7
+ 7
–
– 5
– 5
+ 1
– 3
Northern Ireland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1,625
1,638
1,648
1,655
1,669
1,680
1,689
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
3
3
6
7
17
13
10
7
14
12
8
3
28
27
28
27
26
25
25
24
24
25
24
23
17
17
16
16
15
15
16
15
15
15
15
15
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
11
10
12
12
11
10
9
9
9
10
9
8
– 14
– 8
– 5
– 4
+ 4
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
+ 6
+ 1
–
– 3
–
–
–
–
+
+
–
–
+
–
–
+
+
+
–
–
+
+
–
+
+
+
+
16
18
9
4
1
12
18
3
8
8
8
1
56,216
56,352
56,859
57,814
58,013
58,198
58,401
58,612
58,807
59,014
59,237
59,501
– 29
– 17
+ 26
+ 53
+ 58
+ 45
+ 68
+102
+108
+ 99
+127
+194
+
+
+
–
–
+
+
–
+
+
+
+
13
14
9
4
1
10
16
1
9
8
7
2
49,459
49,634
50,162
51,100
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
52,211
52,428
52,690
– 27
– 15
+ 28
+ 53
+ 60
+ 45
+ 67
+ 99
+104
+ 97
+124
+190
+
+
+
–
–
+
+
10
12
9
3
2
8
15
–
9
8
7
2
46,660
46,821
47,342
48,208
48,378
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
49,284
49,495
49,753
–
–
–
+
+
–
–
+
+
+
3
2
1
1
1
2
1
–
–
–
1
–
2,799
2,813
2,820
2,891
2,899
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
2,927
2,933
2,937
– 10
– 10
– 7
– 5
– 9
– 3
+ 3
+ 4
– 1
– 1
– 5
+ 4
+ 4
+ 4
+ 1
–
– 2
+ 2
+ 2
–
– 1
–
+ 2
+ 2
5,233
5,180
5,123
5,107
5,111
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
5,123
5,120
5,119
–
–
–
–
+
–
–
+
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1,625
1,643
1,648
1,655
1,669
1,680
1,689
1,692
}
– 55
– 33
+ 21
+ 60
+ 45
+ 43
+ 74
+108
+110
+ 97
+114
+187
–
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
2
2
2
–
2
–
2
2
5
3
3
4
+
+
+
+
–
}
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
7
3
2
–
2
3
3
1
4
3
3
3
}
7
4
3
4
2
1
2
1
3
2
2
–
–
–
+
–
–
1
17
1
1
2
–
–
2
1
1
1
2
Note: Total annual change is the sum of Natural change (Live births – deaths), Total net civilian migration and Other changes.These three columns may not add to Total annual change exactly
because of rounding.
* The effect of Northern Ireland revisions have been included in the other changes column from 1981 onwards.
† There is a discontinuity between 1980 and 1981 due to revisions to Northern Ireland data.
National Statistics
52
Population Trends 102
Table 2.1
Year and
quarter
Vital statistics summary
Numbers (thousands) and rates
All live
births
Number
Rate*
Winter 2000
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Number
Rate†
Number
Rate**
Divorces
Deaths
Number
Rate††
Number
Rate*
Infant
mortality***
Number
Neonatal
mortality†††
Rate†
Number
Rate†
17.9
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
10.8
6.68
4.93
4.00
3.46
12.0
9.9
6.7
5.3
4.4
Perinatal
mortality
Number
Rate††††
United Kingdom
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
901.6
675.5
730.8
755.0
792.5
16.1
12.0
13.0
13.3
13.7
73.9
61.1
91.3
158.5
236.1
82
90
125
210
298
459.4
406.0
397.8
393.9
349.7
..
..
49.4
43.5
36.0
79.6
135.4
156.4
168.2
173.5
..
..
11.3
12.5
13.0
645.1
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
11.5
12.1
11.7
11.6
11.3
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
761.7
750.7
732.0
733.4
726.8
717.1
700.1‡
13.1
12.9
12.5
12.5
12.3
12.1
11.8‡
241.8
240.1
245.7
260.4
267.0
269.7
271.3‡
318
320
336
355
367
376
387‡
341.6
331.2
322.3
317.5
310.2
304.8‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
180.0
173.6
170.0
171.7
161.1
160.1‡
158.7‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
658.5
627.6
645.5
636.0
629.7
629.2
632.1‡
11.3
10.7
11.0
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.6‡
4.83
4.63
4.52
4.50
4.25
4.08
4.05‡
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.8‡
3.18
3.09
3.05
3.00
2.81
2.71
2.73‡
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.9‡
6.73
6.74
6.52
6.41
6.06
5.94
5.79‡
8.8
9.0
8.9
8.7
8.3
8.2
8.2‡
1998 Sept
Dec
187.1
175.0
12.5
11.7
70.7
67.7
378
387
125.5‡
56.0‡
..
..
40.8‡
38.0‡
..
..
143.1
167.7
9.6
11.2
0.98
1.11
5.2
6.3
0.68
0.71
3.6
4.0
1.44
1.54
7.7
8.7
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
171.9‡
177.0‡
180.3‡
170.9‡
11.7‡
11.9‡
12.0‡
11.4‡
66.5‡
67.1‡
70.5‡
67.1‡
387‡
379‡
391‡
393‡
36.9‡
83.2‡
124.2‡
..
..
40.0‡
39.3‡
40.1‡
..
..
..
181.6‡
143.0‡
139.1‡
168.4‡
12.4‡
9.6‡
9.3‡
11.2‡
1.07‡
1.02‡
0.98‡
0.98‡
6.2‡
5.8‡
5.4‡
5.7‡
0.68‡
0.70‡
0.71‡
0.65‡
3.9‡
3.9‡
3.9‡
3.8‡
1.50‡
1.48‡
1.44‡
1.37‡
8.7‡
8.3‡
7.9‡
8.0‡
2000 March
June
168.1‡
169.2‡
11.3‡
11.4‡
66.7‡
65.0‡
397‡
384‡
183.2‡
142.8‡
12.4‡
9.7‡
1.0‡
0.9‡
5.9‡
5.5‡
0.68‡
0.64‡
4.1‡
3.8‡
1.43‡
1.35‡
8.4‡
7.9‡
16.2
9.79
8.16
7.18
5.82
20.7
12.3
8.79
7.31
6.45
22.6
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
England and Wales
1971
783.2
1976
584.3
1981
634.5
1986
661.0
1991
699.2
15.9
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
65.7
53.8
81.0
141.3
211.3
84
92
128
214
302
404.7
358.6
352.0
347.9
306.8
69.0
57.7
49.6
43.5
35.6
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.5
567.3
598.5
577.9
581.2
570.0
11.5
12.1
11.6
11.6
11.2
13.7
8.34
7.02
6.31
5.16
17.5
14.3
11.1
9.6
7.4
9.11
5.66
4.23
3.49
3.05
11.6
9.7
6.7
5.3
4.4
17.6
10.5
7.56
6.37
5.65
22.3
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
643.1
635.9
621.9‡
13.1
12.9
12.5
12.5
12.3
12.1
11.8‡
216.5
215.5
219.9
232.7
238.2
240.6
241.9‡
322
324
339
358
370
378
389‡
299.2
291.1
283.0
279.0
272.5
267.3
33.9
32.6
31.0
30.0
28.7
27.7
165.0
158.2
155.5
157.1
146.7
145.2
144.6
14.2
13.7
13.6
13.8
13.0
12.9
12.9‡
578.8
553.2
569.7
560.1
555.3
555.0
556.1
11.3
10.7
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.6
10.6
4.24
4.10
3.98
3.99
3.80
3.63
3.62
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.8
2.80
2.74
2.70
2.68
2.52
2.42
2.44
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.9
6.03
5.95
5.70
5.62
5.38
5.26
5.14
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.6
8.3
8.2
8.2
1998 Sept
Dec
166.1
155.4
12.6
11.8
63.2
60.5
381
389
110.2
48.7
45.3
20.0
37.1‡
34.4‡
13.1‡
12.2‡
125.8
148.9
9.5
11.3
0.86
1.00
5.2
6.5
0.60
0.64
3.6
4.1
1.26
1.38
7.5
8.8
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
152.1‡
157.2‡
160.1‡
152.4‡
11.7‡
12.0‡
12.1‡
11.3‡
59.0‡
59.8‡
62.9‡
60.1‡
388‡
380‡
393‡
393‡
32.5‡
73.1‡
109.1‡
13.6‡
30.3‡
44.8‡
36.4‡
35.7‡
36.7‡
35.8‡
13.2‡
12.8‡
13.0‡
12.7‡
159.1
125.6
122.4
149.0
12.2
9.6
9.2
11.2
0.98
0.89
0.89
0.87
6.4
5.6
5.6
5.7
0.62
0.60
0.65
0.57
4.1
3.8
4.0
3.8
1.34
1.29
1.30
1.21
8.7
8.2
8.1
7.9
2000 March
June
148.6‡
150.5‡
11.3‡
11.4‡
58.9‡
57.9‡
396‡
384‡
36.4‡
13.2‡
161.4‡
125.5‡
12.4‡
9.6‡
0.89‡
0.83‡
6.0‡
5.5‡
0.60‡
0.56‡
4.0‡
3.7‡
1.28‡
1.20‡
8.5‡
7.9‡
England
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
740.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
15.9
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
62.6
50.8
76.9
133.5
198.9
85
92
129
214
301
382.3
339.0
332.2
328.4
290.1
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
146.0
150.1
..
..
..
..
..
532.4
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
11.5
12.0
11.6
11.5
11.2
12.9
7.83
6.50
5.92
4.86
17.5
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
8.58
5.32
3.93
3.27
2.87
11.6
9.7
6.6
5.2
4.3
16.6
9.81
7.04
5.98
5.33
22.1
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
636.5
629.0
613.2
614.2
608.2
602.1
589.4‡
13.1
13.0
12.5
12.5
12.3
12.2
11.8‡
203.6
202.7
206.8
218.2
223.4
225.7
226.7‡
320
322
337
355
367
375
385‡
283.3
275.5
268.3
264.2
258.0
253.1
..
..
..
..
..
156.1
149.6
147.5
148.7
138.7
137.4
..
..
..
..
..
541.1
517.6
532.6
524.0
519.1
519.6
519.6
11.1
10.6
10.9
10.7
10.5
10.5
10.4
4.00
3.83
3.74
3.74
3.60
3.39
3.38
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.7
2.65
2.57
2.55
2.53
2.37
2.29
2.29
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.9
5.70
5.58
5.41
5.36
5.09
4.97
4.86
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.2
8.2
1998 Sept
Dec
157.3
147.2
12.6
11.8
59.3
56.7
377
385
104.4
46.1
..
..
35.1
32.6
..
..
117.6
139.7
8.9
10.6
0.79
0.95
5.0
6.5
0.56
0.62
3.6
4.2
1.18
1.31
7.5
8.9
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
144.1‡
149.0‡
151.7‡
144.6‡
11.7‡
12.0‡
12.1‡
11.5‡
55.4‡
56.1‡
59.0‡
56.2‡
384‡
377‡
389‡
388‡
30.8‡
69.2‡
103.1‡
..
..
..
34.5‡
33.9‡
34.8‡
34.0‡
..
..
..
148.6
117.2
114.3
139.5
12.1
9.5
9.1
11.1
0.91
0.83
0.83
0.81
6.3
5.6
5.5
5.6
0.58
0.57
0.61
0.53
4.0
3.8
4.0
3.7
1.26
1.23
1.23
1.13
8.7
8.2
8.0
7.8
2000 March
June
140.8‡
142.8‡
11.3‡
11.5‡
55.2‡
54.4‡
392‡
381‡
34.5‡
..
151.1‡
117.3‡
12.3‡
9.0‡
0.84‡
0.79‡
5.9‡
5.5‡
0.57‡
0.54‡
4.1‡
3.8‡
1.21‡
1.14‡
8.5‡
7.9‡
*
†
**
††
***
Per 1,000 population of all ages.
Per 1,000 live births.
Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over.
Persons divorcing per 1,000 married population.
Deaths under 1 year.
††† Deaths under 4 weeks.
**** Stillbirths and deaths under 1 week. In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to
one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more.
†††† Per 1,000 live births and stillbirths.
‡
Provisional.
53
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 2.1
continued
Year and
quarter
Winter 2000
Vital statistics summary
Numbers (thousands) and rates
All live
births
Number
Rate*
Live births
outside marriage
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Marriages
Divorces
Deaths
Number
Rate†
Number
Rate**
Number
Rate††
Number
Rate*
Infant
mortality***
Number
Rate†
Neonatal
mortality†††
Number
Rate†
Perinatal
mortality
Number
Rate††††
Wales
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
43.1
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
15.7
11.9
12.7
13.1
13.2
3.1
2.9
4.0
7.8
12.3
71
86
112
211
323
22.4
19.5
19.8
19.5
16.6
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
7.9
8.6
..
..
..
..
..
34.8
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
12.7
13.0
12.4
12.3
11.8
0.79
0.46
0.45
0.35
0.25
18.4
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
0.53
0.32
0.29
0.21
0.16
12.3
9.6
8.1
5.6
4.1
1.07
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
24.4
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
36.6
35.4
34.5
34.9
34.5
33.4
32.1‡
12.6
12.2
11.8
11.9
11.8
11.4
10.9‡
12.9
12.7
13.1
14.4
14.8
14.8
14.8‡
352
360
381
412
428
444
461‡
15.9
15.5
14.7
14.8
14.6
14.2
..
..
..
..
..
8.9
8.6
8.0
8.4
8.0
7.8
..
..
..
..
..
35.9
33.9
35.6
34.6
34.6
34.0
35.0
12.4
11.6
12.2
11.8
11.8
11.6
11.9
0.20
0.22
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.20
5.5
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.9
5.6
6.1
0.12
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.13
3.3
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.9
3.6
4.0
0.30
0.33
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.25
8.2
9.3
7.9
7.5
7.9
8.0
7.7
1998 Sept
Dec
8.8
8.0
11.8
10.9
3.9
3.8
444
468
5.8
2.6
..
2.0
1.8
..
..
7.8
8.9
10.6
12.1
0.05
0.05
5.9
6.0
0.04
0.02
4.0
3.0
0.07
0.06
8.2
6.9
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.9‡
8.2‡
8.3‡
7.7‡
10.9‡
11.2‡
11.1‡
10.4‡
3.6‡
3.6‡
3.9‡
3.7‡
454‡
445‡
470‡
473‡
1.6‡
3.9‡
6.0‡
..
..
1.9‡
1.8‡
1.9‡
1.9‡
..
..
..
..
10.2
8.0
7.7
9.2
14.1
11.0
10.4
12.4
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
6.6
5.6
5.9
6.3
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
3.9
3.8
3.8
4.7
0.06
0.05
0.07
0.07
7.9
6.0
8.1
9.1
2000 March
June
7.8‡
7.7‡
10.7‡
10.5‡
3.7‡
3.5‡
470‡
451‡
1.9‡
..
10.0‡
7.9‡
13.7‡
10.9‡
0.04‡
0.04‡
5.6‡
4.6‡
0.03‡
0.02‡
3.8‡
3.0‡
0.06‡
0.05‡
7.9‡
6.7‡
Scotland
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
86.7
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
16.6
12.5
13.4
12.9
13.1
7.0
6.0
8.5
13.6
19.5
81
93
122
206
291
42.5
37.5
36.2
35.8
33.8
64.1
53.8
47.5
42.8
38.7
4.8
8.1
9.9
12.8
12.4
3.9
6.5
8.0
10.7
10.6
61.6
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
11.8
12.5
12.3
12.4
12.0
1.72
0.96
0.78
0.58
0.47
19.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
1.17
0.67
0.47
0.34
0.29
13.5
10.3
6.9
5.2
4.4
2.15
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
24.5
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
63.3
61.7
60.1
59.3
59.4
57.3
55.1‡
12.4
12.0
11.7
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.8‡
19.9
19.2
20.3
21.4
22.4
22.3
22.7‡
313
312
337
360
377
389
412‡
33.4
31.5
30.7
30.2
29.6
29.7
29.9
37.6
35.1
33.7
32.8
31.7
31.2
31.1
12.8
13.1
12.2
12.3
12.2
12.4
11.8
11.0
11.4
10.7
10.9
11.0
11.2
10.7
64.0
59.3
60.5
60.7
59.5
59.2
60.3
12.5
11.6
11.8
11.8
11.6
11.6
11.8
0.41
0.38
0.38
0.37
0.32
0.32
0.28
6.5
6.2
6.2
6.2
5.3
5.5
5.0
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.23
0.19
0.20
0.18
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.2
3.5
3.3
0.61
0.56
0.58
0.55
0.47
0.49
0.42
9.6
9.0
9.6
9.2
7.8
8.5
7.6
1998 Sept
Dec
14.8
14.1
11.5
10.9
5.7
5.7
384
404
11.9
5.9
49.8
24.7
3.1
3.0
11.1
10.8
13.8
15.2
10.7
11.8
0.09
0.08
5.7
5.9
0.06
0.05
4.1
3.2
0.13
0.12
9.0
8.3
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.9‡
13.9‡
14.1‡
13.3‡
11.0‡
10.9‡
10.9‡
10.3‡
5.7‡
5.6‡
5.7‡
5.7‡
411‡
402‡
406‡
430‡
3.6
8.1
11.9
6.3
15.1
33.9
49.0
25.9
2.9‡
3.1‡
2.9‡
2.9‡
10.8‡
11.2‡
10.5‡
10.4‡
17.7
13.7
13.3
15.6
14.0
10.7
10.3
12.1
0.06
0.09
0.05
0.08
4.4
6.5
3.5
5.7
0.04
0.06
0.04
0.05
2.5
4.2
2.5
4.0
0.11
0.12
0.09
0.11
7.5
8.4
6.3
8.2
2000 March
June
13.7‡
13.2‡
10.8‡
10.4‡
5.9‡
5.5‡
433‡
418‡
17.2‡
13.7‡
13.5‡
10.7‡
0.09‡
0.07‡
6.3‡
5.5‡
0.06‡
0.05‡
4.2‡
3.8‡
0.11‡
0.11‡
7.8‡
8.4‡
Northern Ireland
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
31.8
26.4
27.3
28.2
26.3
20.7
17.3
17.8
18.0
16.5
1.2
1.3
1.9
3.6
5.3
38
50
70
127
202
12.2
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.2
..
..
45.4
..
37.7
0.3
0.6
1.4
1.5
2.3
..
..
4.2
..
6.8
17.6
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
12.8
11.2
10.6
10.3
9.4
0.72
0.48
0.36
0.36
0.19
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
24.9
24.3
23.9
24.6
24.3
23.9
23.2‡
15.3
14.9
14.5
14.8
14.5
14.2
13.7‡
5.5
5.4
5.5
6.4
6.4
6.8
7.0‡
219
220
231
259
266
283
301‡
9.0
8.7
8.6
8.3
8.1
7.8
7.6
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.3
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
15.6
15.1
15.3
15.2
15.0
15.0
15.7‡
9.6
9.2
9.3
9.1
9.0
8.9
9.3‡
0.18
0.15
0.17
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.15‡
7.1
6.1
7.1
5.8
5.6
5.6
6.4‡
0.12
0.10
0.13
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.11‡
1998 Sept
Dec
6.2
5.5
14.7
13.0
1.8
1.6
285
294
3.4
1.4
..
..
0.6
0.6
..
..
3.5
3.6
8.2
8.5
0.03
0.02
5.5
4.0
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
6.0‡
5.9‡
6.1‡
5.2‡
14.3‡
14.0‡
14.3‡
12.2‡
1.8‡
1.8‡
1.8‡
1.6‡
302‡
297‡
303‡
303‡
0.9
2.2
3.2
1.5
..
..
..
..
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
..
..
..
..
4.7‡
3.7‡
3.5‡
3.8‡
11.3‡
8.7‡
8.1‡
8.9‡
0.03‡
0.04‡
0.04‡
0.03‡
2000 March
June
Sept
5.8‡
5.5‡
5.5‡
13.6‡
12.9‡
12.9‡
1.9‡
1.6‡
1.8‡
326‡
297‡
323‡
0.8‡
2.2‡
..
..
0.6‡
0.7‡
..
..
4.7‡
3.6‡
11.2‡
8.5‡
0.03‡
0.03‡
3.6‡
8.4‡
15.0‡
34.9‡
Notes: 1. Rates for the most recent quarters will be particularly subject to revision, even
when standard detail is given, as they are based on provisional numbers or on
estimates derived from events registered in the period.
2. Figures for England and Wales represent the numbers of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993.
Provisional figures are registrations.
National Statistics
54
22.7
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
0.51
0.35
0.23
0.23
0.12
15.9
13.3
8.3
8.3
4.6
0.88
0.59
0.42
0.42
0.22
27.2
22.3
15.3
15.3
8.4
4.9
4.2
5.5
3.7
4.2
3.9
4.8‡
0.22
0.24
0.25
0.23
0.21
0.20
0.23‡
8.8
9.7
10.4
9.4
8.6
8.1
10.0‡
0.02
0.02
3.5
3.3
0.05
0.05
8.0
8.2
5.7‡
7.5‡
5.9‡
6.5‡
0.02‡
0.03‡
0.03‡
0.03‡
4.0‡
5.8‡
4.4‡
5.2‡
0.06‡
0.07‡
0.05‡
0.05‡
10.2‡
11.4‡
8.2‡
10.1‡
4.5‡
5.2‡
0.02‡
0.02‡
3.8‡
4.1‡
0.04‡
0.04‡
7.4‡
7.2‡
3. From 1972 figures for England and figures for Wales each exclude events for
persons usually resident outside England and Wales. These events are however
included in the totals for England and Wales combined, and for the United
Kingdom.
Population Trends 102
Table 2.2
Key demographic and health indicators
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Dependency ratio
Population
Live births
Deaths
Children*
Elderly†
United Kingdom
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
55,928.0
56,216.1
56,357.5
56,858.5
57,813.8
58,197.7
58,400.8
58,611.7
58,807.2
59,014.0
59,237.0
59,500.9
901.6
675.5
730.8
755.0
792.5
761.7
750.7
732.0
733.4
726.8
717.1
700.1‡
645.1
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
658.5
627.6
645.5
636.0
629.7
629.2
632.1‡
43.8
42.1
37.1
33.5
33.1
33.3
33.6
33.8
33.8
33.6
33.4
28.0
29.5
29.7
29.6
29.9
29.9
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.6
29.5
England
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
46,411.7
46,659.9
46,820.8
47,342.4
48,208.1
48,532.7
48,707.5
48,903.4
49,089.1
49,284.2
49,494.6
49,752.9
740.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
636.5
629.0
613.2
614.2
608.2
602.1
589.4‡
532.4
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
541.1
517.6
532.6
524.0
519.1
519.6
519.6
42.9
41.4
36.4
33.1
32.8
33.1
33.4
33.6
33.6
33.4
33.3
Wales
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2,740.3
2,799.3
2,813.5
2,819.6
2,891.5
2,906.5
2,913.0
2,916.8
2,921.1
2,926.9
2,933.3
2,937.0
43.1
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
36.6
35.4
34.5
34.9
34.5
33.4
32.1‡
34.8
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
35.9
33.9
35.6
34.6
34.6
34.0
35.0
Scotland
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
5,235.6
5,233.4
5,180.2
5,123.0
5,107.0
5,120.2
5,132.4
5,136.6
5,128.0
5,122.5
5,120.0
5,119.2
86.7
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
63.3
61.7
60.1
59.3
59.4
57.3
55.1‡
Northern Ireland†††
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1,540.4
1,523.5
1,543.0
1,573.5
1,607.3
1,638.3
1,647.9
1,654.9
1,669.1
1,680.3
1,688.6
1,691.8
31.8
26.4
27.3
28.2
26.3
24.9
24.3
23.9
24.6
24.3
23.9
23.2‡
‡
*
†
**
††
Winter 2000
Live births
Outside
marriage as
percentage
of total
live births
Mean age
of mother
at birth
(years)
Agestandardised
mortality
rate††
Males
Females
Infant
mortality
rate***
2.41
1.74
1.82
1.78
1.82
1.76
1.74
1.71
1.72
1.72
1.72
1.69‡
8.2
9.0
12.5
21.0
29.8
31.8
32.0
33.6
35.5
36.7
37.6
38.7‡
26.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.6
28.1
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.8
28.9
29.0‡
10,448
10,486
9,506
8,897
8,107
8,037
7,622
7,706
7,522
7,370
7,290
7,255 ‡
68.8
69.6
70.8
71.9
73.2
73.7
73.9
74.1
74.3
74.6
74.9‡
75.0
75.2
76.8
77.7
78.8
79.1
79.2
79.4
79.5
79.6
79.8‡
17.9
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.8‡
28.1
29.7
29.9
29.8
29.9
30.0
29.9
29.8
29.8
29.6
29.5
2.37
1.70
1.79
1.87
1.81
1.76
1.74
1.71
1.73
1.72
1.72
1.69‡
8.5
9.2
12.9
21.4
30.1
32.0
32.2
33.7
35.5
36.7
37.5
38.5‡
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.1
28.4
28.6
28.7
28.8
29.0
29.0‡
10,278
10,271
9,298
8,694
7,941
7,825
7,440
7,526
7,333
7,190
7,128
7,062
43.4
42.0
37.6
34.4
34.4
34.6
34.9
35.1
35.0
34.7
34.5
29.8
30.9
31.6
32.5
33.4
33.6
33.6
33.6
33.6
33.5
33.5
2.44
1.79
1.87
1.86
1.88
1.84
1.79
1.78
1.82
1.82
1.79
1.74‡
7.2
8.7
11.2
21.1
32.3
35.2
36.0
38.1
41.2
42.8
44.4
46.1‡
26.0
26.6
26.5
27.0
27.4
27.7
27.8
27.8
28.0
28.0
28.1‡
11,175
10,858
9,846
9,012
8,074
8,227
7,753
7,953
7,664
7,578
7,366
7,532
61.6
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
64.0
59.3
60.5
60.7
59.5
59.2
60.3
48.2
44.7
38.2
33.5
32.2
32.3
32.5
32.6
32.5
32.3
32.0
27.1
28.4
28.4
28.0
28.7
28.7
28.7
28.6
28.7
28.7
28.8
2.53
1.80
1.84
1.67
1.70
1.62
1.58
1.55
1.55
1.57
1.54
1.51‡
8.1
9.3
12.2
20.6
29.1
31.3
31.2
33.7
36.0
37.7
39.0
41.2‡
26.0
26.3
26.6
27.4
27.9
28.2
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.8
28.9‡
17.6
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.6
15.1
15.3
15.2
15.0
15.0
15.7‡
56.6
56.1
50.6
46.5
44.0
43.6
43.3
42.9
42.3
41.6
40.8
24.0
25.3
25.3
24.7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25.2
25.1
24.9
25.0
3.13
2.70
2.60
2.46
2.18
2.01
1.95
1.91
1.95
1.93
1.91
1.87‡
3.8
5.0
7.0
12.7
20.2
21.9
22.0
23.1
25.9
26.6
28.3
30.1‡
27.4
27.6
27.6
28.0
28.4
28.6
28.8
28.8
29.0
29.1
29.0‡
Provisional.
Percentage of children under 16 to working population (males 16–64 and females 16–
59).
Percentage of males 65 and over and females 60 and over to working population (males
16–64 and females 16–59).
TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if
current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes
called the TPFR (total period fertility rate).
Per million population. The age-standardised mortality rate makes allowances for
changes in the age structure of the population. See Notes to tables.
TFR**
Expectation of
life (in years)
at birth
17.5
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.7
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.0
74.1
74.4
74.6
74.9
75.1‡
77.0
77.9
79.0
79.3
79.4
79.6
79.7
79.9
80.0‡
70.4
71.6
73.2
73.5
73.5
73.8
74.0
74.4
74.5‡
76.4
77.6
78.9
79.0
79.0
79.2
79.2
79.4
79.5‡
11,444
11,675
10,849
10,135
9,254
9,529
8,840
8,887
8,868
8,623
8,533
8,618
67.3
68.2
69.1
70.2
71.4
71.7
71.9
72.1
72.2
72.4
72.6‡
73.7
74.4
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.3
77.4
77.6
77.8
77.9
78.1‡
19.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.5
6.2
6.2
6.2
5.3
5.5
5.0
11,607
11,746
10,567
10,071
8,564
8,600
8,256
8,255
8,057
7,810
7,438
7,672 ‡
67.6
67.5
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.0
73.1
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.3‡
73.7
73.8
75.5
77.1
78.4
78.7
78.6
78.9
79.2
79.5
79.5‡
22.7
18.3
13.2
10.2
7.4
7.1
6.1
7.1
5.8
5.6
5.6
6.4‡
18.4
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.5
6.1
5.8
5.6
5.9
5.6
6.1
*** Deaths under one year per 1,000 live births.
††† Northern Ireland data has been revised to take account of changed Northern Ireland
population estimates from 1981.
Notes: 1. Some of these indicators are also in other tables. They are brought together to
make comparison easier.
2. Figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993.
55
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 3.1
Winter 2000
Live births: age of mother
Numbers (thousands), rates, mean age and TFRs
England and Wales
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Age of mother at birth
35–39
40 and
over
All
ages
Under
20
Total live births (numbers)
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
TFR†
Age-specific fertility rates*
1961
1964(max)†
1966
1971
1976
1977(min)†
1981
1986
1991
811.3
876.0
849.8
783.2
584.3
569.3
634.5
661.0
699.2
59.8
76.7
86.7
82.6
57.9
54.5
56.6
57.4
52.4
249.8
276.1
285.8
285.7
182.2
174.5
194.5
192.1
173.4
248.5
270.7
253.7
247.2
220.7
207.9
215.8
229.0
248.7
152.3
153.5
136.4
109.6
90.8
100.8
126.6
129.5
161.3
77.5
75.4
67.0
45.2
26.1
25.5
34.2
45.5
53.6
23.3
23.6
20.1
12.7
6.5
6.0
6.9
7.6
9.8
89.2
92.9
90.5
83.5
60.4
58.1
61.3
60.6
63.6
37.3
42.5
47.7
50.6
32.2
29.4
28.1
30.1
33.0
172.6
181.6
176.0
152.9
109.3
103.7
105.3
92.7
89.3
176.9
187.3
174.0
153.2
118.7
117.5
129.1
124.0
119.4
103.1
107.7
97.3
77.1
57.2
58.6
68.6
78.1
86.7
48.1
49.8
45.3
32.8
18.6
18.2
21.7
24.6
32.1
15.0
13.7
12.5
8.7
4.8
4.4
4.9
4.8
5.3
27.6
27.2
26.8
26.2
26.4
26.5
26.8
27.0
27.7
2.77
2.93
2.75
2.37
1.71
1.66
1.80
1.77
1.82
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999‡
689.7
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
643.1
635.9
621.9
47.9
45.1
42.0
41.9
44.7
46.4
48.3
48.4
163.3
152.0
140.2
130.7
125.7
118.6
113.5
110.7
244.8
236.0
229.1
217.4
211.1
202.8
193.1
181.9
166.8
171.1
179.6
181.2
186.4
187.5
188.5
185.3
56.7
58.8
63.1
65.5
69.5
74.9
78.9
81.3
10.2
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.1
12.9
13.6
14.3
63.5
62.6
61.9
60.4
60.5
59.8
59.1
57.5
31.7
31.0
29.0
28.5
29.8
30.2
30.7
30.6
86.2
82.7
79.4
76.8
77.5
76.6
75.4
73.1
117.3
114.1
112.1
108.6
106.9
104.8
102.6
99.4
87.2
87.0
88.7
87.3
88.6
88.8
89.9
89.1
33.4
34.1
35.8
36.2
37.2
38.9
39.9
39.9
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.6
7.8
8.1
27.9
28.1
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.8
28.9
29.0
1.80
1.76
1.75
1.72
1.73
1.73
1.72
1.70
1997
March
June
Sept
Dec
158.1
163.3
164.9
156.8
11.5
11.3
11.8
11.8
29.8
29.5
30.3
29.0
50.4
51.6
52.1
48.7
45.7
48.4
48.1
45.4
17.7
19.2
19.3
18.7
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.2
59.6
60.9
60.8
57.8
31
30
30
30
77
76
78
75
105
107
107
101
88
92
90
86
38
40
40
38
7
8
8
7
28.7
28.9
28.8
28.8
1.70
1.75
1.78
1.70
1998
March
June
Sept
Dec
155.8
158.6
166.1
155.4
11.7
11.4
12.7
12.4
27.8
27.5
29.8
28.5
47.9
48.6
50.6
46.1
46.2
48.1
48.9
45.4
18.8
19.7
20.7
19.6
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.4
58.7
59.1
61.2
57.3
31
29
32
31
74
73
79
75
102
103
107
98
89
92
93
86
39
40
41
39
8
8
8
8
28.9
29.0
28.9
28.9
1.68
1.71
1.81
1.70
1999
March‡
June ‡
Sept ‡
Dec ‡
152.1
157.2
160.1
152.4
12.0
11.8
12.5
12.0
27.1
27.2
28.7
27.7
45.0
46.2
46.8
43.8
45.1
48.0
47.5
44.7
19.6
20.5
20.9
20.2
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.6
57.2
58.4
58.8
55.9
31
30
32
30
73
73
75
72
98
101
102
96
88
92
91
86
39
40
41
39
8
8
8
8
28.9
29.1
29.0
29.0
1.69
1.72
1.74
1.66
2000
March‡ 148.6
June‡ 150.5
11.4
11.1
26.4
26.0
42.5
42.8
44.1
45.7
20.6
21.3
3.7
3.6
55.2
55.8
29
28
69
68
95
97
86
90
40
41
8
8
29.1
29.2
1.64
1.66
* Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly age-specific fertility rates are adjusted for days in the quarter. They are not adjusted for seasonality, and therefore have been revised
from those previously published.
† TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR
(total period fertility rate). During the post Second World War period the TFR reached a maximum in 1964 and a minimum in 1977.
‡ Provisional.
Note:
The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
National Statistics
56
Population Trends 102
Table 3.2
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
Numbers (thousands), mean age and percentages
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
Winter 2000
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
England and Wales
Age of mother at birth
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Registration*
35–39
40 and
over
Joint
Sole
Same Different
address† address†
Live births outside marriage (numbers)
Percentage of total live births
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
{
in age-group
65.7
53.8
81.0
21.6
19.8
26.4
22.0
16.6
28.8
11.5
9.7
14.3
6.2
4.7
7.9
3.2
2.3
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.9
23.7
23.3
23.4
8.4
9.2
12.8
26.1
34.2
46.7
7.7
9.1
14.8
4.7
4.4
6.6
5.7
5.2
6.2
7.0
8.6
3.9
9.0
10.1
12.5
45.5
51.0
58.2
54.5
49.0
41.8
1986
1991
1992
141.3
211.3
215.2
39.6
43.4
40.1
54.1
77.8
77.1
27.7
52.4
55.9
13.1
25.7
28.9
5.7
9.8
10.9
1.1
2.1
2.3
23.8
24.8
25.2
21.4
30.2
31.2
69.0
82.9
83.7
28.2
44.9
47.2
12.1
21.1
22.8
10.1
16.0
17.3
12.6
18.3
19.3
14.7
21.3
22.9
46.6
54.6
55.4
19.6
19.8
20.7
33.8
25.6
23.9
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999‡
216.5
215.5
219.9
232.7
238.2
240.6
241.9
38.2
35.9
36.3
39.3
41.1
43.0
43.0
75.0
71.0
69.7
71.1
69.5
67.8
67.5
57.5
58.5
59.6
62.3
63.4
62.4
61.2
31.4
34.0
37.0
40.5
42.2
43.9
45.0
11.9
13.4
14.4
16.2
18.2
19.6
20.8
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.7
3.9
4.3
25.4
25.8
26.0
26.1
26.2
26.3
26.4
32.2
32.4
33.9
35.8
37.0
37.8
38.9
84.8
85.5
86.6
88.0
88.7
89.1
89.0
49.4
50.6
53.3
56.5
58.6
59.7
61.0
24.4
25.5
27.4
29.5
31.3
32.3
33.6
18.4
18.9
20.4
21.7
22.5
23.3
24.3
20.2
21.2
22.0
23.4
25.0
24.8
25.6
23.5
25.2
26.2
26.7
28.6
29.0
30.2
54.8
57.5
58.1
58.1
59.5
60.9
61.8
22.0
19.8
20.1
19.9
19.3
18.3
18.2
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
21.2
20.8
19.9
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.5
58.9
61.4
59.3
10.2
10.1
10.5
10.4
17.4
17.1
17.9
17.2
15.7
15.5
16.5
15.7
10.2
10.6
10.9
10.4
4.2
4.7
4.7
4.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
26.1
26.3
26.2
26.2
37.0
36.1
37.3
37.8
88.7
89.1
88.8
88.3
58.4
58.0
58.9
59.2
31.0
30.1
31.8
32.2
22.4
22.0
22.7
23.0
23.9
24.3
24.4
24.8
28.7
28.4
27.8
29.3
58.4
59.6
59.9
60.0
19.5
19.4
18.9
19.2
22.1
21.0
21.2
20.7
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.5
58.4
63.2
60.5
10.4
10.3
11.3
11.0
16.5
16.2
17.9
17.2
15.3
15.4
16.3
15.4
10.7
10.8
11.5
10.9
4.6
4.7
5.2
5.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
26.3
26.4
26.3
26.3
37.5
36.8
38.1
38.9
89.0
89.6
89.2
88.5
59.5
59.1
60.0
60.4
31.9
31.8
32.3
33.3
23.1
22.5
23.6
24.0
24.4
24.0
25.2
25.6
29.6
28.3
28.5
29.6
60.5
61.0
60.9
61.2
18.4
18.2
18.4
18.4
21.1
20.8
20.7
20.4
1999 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
59.0
59.8
62.9
60.1
10.8
10.5
11.1
10.6
16.4
16.5
17.7
17.0
15.0
15.3
16.0
14.9
10.9
11.2
11.7
11.1
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.3
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
26.3
26.4
26.4
26.4
38.8
38.0
39.3
39.4
89.7
89.2
88.7
88.4
60.5
60.6
61.7
61.2
33.4
33.0
34.1
34.0
24.1
23.4
24.7
24.8
25.4
25.3
25.6
26.2
29.5
31.3
29.3
30.8
61.4
61.6
62.2
62.0
18.2
18.2
18.1
18.4
20.4
20.1
19.6
19.5
2000 March‡
June‡
58.9
57.9
10.2
10.0
16.5
16.1
14.8
14.3
10.9
10.9
5.4
5.5
1.2
1.1
26.5
26.6
39.6
38.4
89.7
89.6
62.6
61.9
34.7
33.5
24.7
23.8
26.1
25.7
31.7
30.7
62.5
62.9
18.1
17.8
19.4
19.2
{
1971
1976
1981
* Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole).
† Usual address(es) of parents.
‡ Provisional.
57
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 3.3
Winter 2000
Live births: within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order*
Numbers (thousands) and mean age
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
England and Wales
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
Live births within marriage
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
Live births within marriage to remarried women
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
717.5
530.5
553.5
519.7
487.9
474.4
61.1
38.1
30.1
17.8
8.9
7.8
263.7
165.6
165.7
138.0
95.6
86.2
235.7
211.0
201.5
201.3
196.3
188.9
103.4
86.1
118.7
116.4
135.5
137.9
42.1
23.9
31.5
39.8
43.8
45.7
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
7.7
7.9
26.4
26.6
27.2
27.9
28.8
29.1
19.4
26.7
38.8
41.7
39.4
38.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.9
3.6
2.6
1.6
1.4
6.6
10.5
13.4
13.2
10.8
9.9
6.1
8.7
14.1
15.4
15.8
15.4
3.4
3.6
6.2
8.7
9.1
9.2
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.1
2.2
33.1
30.4
30.9
31.7
32.4
32.7
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999‡
456.9
449.2
428.2
416.8
404.9
395.3
379.8
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
77.0
69.2
67.0
54.7
49.1
45.7
43.1
178.5
170.6
157.0
148.8
139.4
130.2
120.6
139.7
145.6
144.2
145.9
145.3
143.5
140.4
46.9
49.7
51.1
53.3
56.7
58.4
60.4
8.0
8.0
8.4
8.9
9.2
9.3
9.9
29.4
29.6
29.8
30.0
30.3
30.3
30.7
35.9
35.2
33.3
32.6
31.4
30.2
27.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
8.7
8.1
7.2
6.4
5.8
5.1
4.3
14.8
14.9
14.0
13.9
13.1
12.4
11.3
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
32.9
33.1
33.2
33.5
33.7
34.0
34.2
1997 Sept
Dec
103.5
97.5
1.3
1.4
12.5
11.8
35.5
33.0
37.2
34.9
14.6
14.1
2.4
2.3
30.4
30.4
8.0
7.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
1.4
1.3
3.4
3.2
2.4
2.4
0.6
0.6
33.7
33.9
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
97.3
100.1
102.9
94.9
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.4
11.3
11.3
11.9
11.2
32.6
33.1
34.3
30.2
35.6
37.2
37.3
33.4
14.2
15.0
15.5
13.7
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.1
30.5
30.6
30.5
29.5
7.4
7.6
8.0
7.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.2
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
33.9
34.0
34.0
34.1
1999 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
93.1
97.4
97.1
92.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
10.7
10.7
11.0
10.7
29.9
31.0
30.8
28.9
34.2
36.7
35.8
33.7
14.6
15.3
15.6
14.9
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.5
30.6
30.7
30.7
30.7
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
34.1
34.1
34.2
34.0
2000 March‡
June‡
89.7
92.7
1.2
1.2
9.9
9.9
27.7
28.4
33.2
34.8
15.2
15.9
2.5
2.5
30.8
30.8
6.4
6.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.9
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.3
0.6
0.6
34.2
34.2
First live births
Second live births
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
283.6
217.2
224.3
206.9
193.7
187.3
49.5
30.2
23.6
13.8
6.7
6.0
135.8
85.4
89.5
74.7
51.2
45.9
74.8
77.2
77.2
79.3
84.5
81.7
17.2
19.7
27.8
30.8
40.2
41.8
5.1
3.9
5.4
7.5
9.7
10.4
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.5
23.9
24.8
25.3
26.2
27.4
27.8
240.8
203.6
205.7
189.2
178.3
174.0
10.7
7.4
6.1
3.6
2.0
1.7
93.6
62.5
59.0
47.5
32.8
29.6
94.1
91.8
82.7
78.9
73.9
70.7
31.8
34.7
47.7
45.5
53.0
54.5
8.9
6.2
9.1
12.3
14.7
15.5
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.9
2.0
26.2
26.8
27.4
28.0
28.9
29.2
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999‡
178.1
176.0
168.1
163.0
157.0
155.7
153.5
5.2
4.7
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
40.4
36.4
32.3
28.9
25.9
24.3
23.4
77.6
75.7
71.0
67.2
63.1
60.6
57.3
42.7
46.1
46.6
47.7
48.1
49.5
50.2
10.8
11.6
12.1
13.1
13.8
15.0
16.0
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
28.0
28.3
28.5
28.8
29.0
29.2
29.4
169.4
166.3
158.1
153.8
150.4
146.9
139.4
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
26.8
23.9
20.6
18.5
16.6
15.5
14.4
66.7
62.7
57.3
53.4
50.0
46.4
41.7
55.9
58.6
58.5
59.1
59.4
58.9
56.6
16.3
17.6
18.1
19.2
20.7
22.2
22.6
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
29.4
29.7
30.0
30.2
30.5
30.7
30.9
1997 Sept
Dec
40.3
39.0
1.1
1.1
6.6
6.4
16.2
15.5
12.3
12.1
3.6
3.6
0.5
0.5
29.0
29.1
38.3
35.2
0.3
0.3
4.1
3.9
12.7
11.4
15.2
13.9
5.3
5.0
0.7
0.7
30.6
30.6
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
37.4
38.1
41.4
38.8
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.2
5.8
5.9
6.5
6.1
14.8
15.0
16.2
14.6
11.8
12.2
13.2
12.4
3.5
3.6
4.0
3.9
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
29.2
29.2
29.2
29.3
36.4
38.5
37.8
34.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.7
11.6
12.3
12.0
10.5
14.6
15.7
15.0
13.6
5.3
5.7
5.8
5.4
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
30.6
30.7
30.8
30.8
1999 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
36.6
38.1
40.1
38.6
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2
5.7
5.8
6.1
5.9
13.8
14.4
15.0
14.2
11.9
12.4
13.1
12.6
3.7
4.0
4.1
4.2
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
29.3
29.4
29.4
29.4
34.6
37.1
35.1
32.6
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
10.6
11.1
10.4
9.6
13.8
15.6
14.3
12.9
5.5
5.8
5.8
5.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
30.8
31.0
31.0
31.0
2000 March‡
June‡
35.5
36.2
0.9
0.9
5.2
5.2
12.9
13.2
11.8
12.2
4.1
4.1
0.5
0.6
29.6
29.6
33.0
35.2
0.2
0.2
3.4
3.4
9.6
10.1
13.3
14.5
5.8
6.2
0.7
0.8
31.0
31.1
Third live births
Fourth and higher order live births†
1971
1976
1981
1986
111.7
71.0
82.4
80.8
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.3
26.6
14.4
14.1
12.7
43.6
29.8
29.5
30.2
27.9
19.5
28.7
25.6
10.4
5.8
8.7
10.5
2.2
1.1
1.0
1.5
28.7
28.8
29.5
29.9
81.4
38.8
41.1
42.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
23.2
12.2
12.0
13.0
26.5
12.1
14.5
14.5
17.6
8.0
8.3
9.4
6.5
3.1
3.2
2.8
30.7
30.7
31.1
31.2
1991
1992
76.1
74.2
0.2
0.1
9.4
8.6
26.8
25.7
27.5
27.2
10.5
10.8
1.8
1.7
30.4
30.6
39.8
39.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
2.1
11.1
10.7
14.8
14.3
8.9
9.0
2.7
2.7
31.6
31.7
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999‡
71.8
69.7
66.7
65.3
63.2
60.4
56.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
7.9
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.7
4.2
24.0
22.6
20.5
19.6
18.1
16.4
14.7
26.9
26.8
26.1
26.0
25.1
24.0
22.3
11.0
11.4
11.7
12.0
12.7
13.1
13.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
30.8
31.0
31.1
31.3
31.6
31.8
32.0
37.5
37.1
35.3
34.7
34.2
32.3
30.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
10.1
9.7
9.0
8.6
8.1
7.4
6.8
14.1
14.1
13.1
13.1
12.7
12.1
11.3
8.9
9.1
9.2
9.0
9.4
9.0
8.8
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
31.8
32.0
32.0
32.2
32.5
32.7
32.8
1997 Sept
Dec
16.3
14.8
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.2
4.6
4.2
6.5
5.8
3.3
3.1
0.5
0.5
31.6
31.7
8.6
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
2.0
2.0
3.2
3.1
2.4
2.5
0.7
0.6
32.5
32.5
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
15.2
15.4
15.5
14.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
4.3
4.1
4.2
3.8
6.0
6.3
6.1
5.6
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
31.7
31.9
31.9
31.8
8.3
8.1
8.2
7.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
32.6
32.7
32.7
32.7
1999 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
14.1
14.6
14.2
13.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.5
5.7
5.9
5.4
5.3
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
31.9
32.0
32.0
31.9
7.8
7.6
7.8
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.1
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
32.7
32.8
33.0
32.6
2000 March‡
June‡
13.6
14.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
3.6
3.6
5.3
5.4
3.2
3.5
0.6
0.5
32.0
32.1
7.6
7.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
1.7
1.6
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.1
0.6
0.7
32.7
32.9
* Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
† Mean age at birth refers to fourth births only. ‡ Provisional.
National Statistics
58
Population Trends 102
Table 4.1
Winter 2000
Conceptions: age of woman at conception
Numbers (thousands) and rates; and percentage terminated by abortion
England and Wales (residents)
Age of woman at conception
Year and quarter
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
1999 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
All ages
Under 16
(a) numbers (thousands)
871.5
8.1
853.7
7.5
828.0
7.2
819.0
7.3
801.6
7.8
790.3
8.1
816.9
8.9
800.4
8.3
797.0
8.5
206.3
200.8
202.6
207.2
194.1
198.5
199.2
208.6
196.5
196.0
200.8
203.7
191.5
190.4
193.8
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
Under 18
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
44.8
40.1
37.6
35.8
36.1
37.9
43.5
43.4
44.1
113.3
101.6
93.4
87.2
85.4
86.6
94.9
96.0
101.6
244.5
233.3
215.9
203.6
190.4
181.1
179.8
167.3
163.3
284.2
281.5
274.9
271.7
261.8
250.3
252.6
242.6
232.4
161.4
167.5
172.0
181.0
185.0
190.3
200.0
200.9
201.4
56.0
57.6
59.6
63.0
66.2
68.7
75.5
78.9
82.9
12.0
12.1
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.2
14.1
14.7
15.4
10.9
10.9
10.5
11.2
10.6
11.0
10.4
11.4
11.2
11.0
10.7
11.2
10.4
10.5
10.4
24.2
23.7
22.6
24.2
23.2
23.9
23.3
25.6
25.3
25.3
24.7
26.3
24.9
24.4
24.1
47.3
44.6
43.1
44.9
41.6
41.8
40.4
43.5
41.1
40.5
40.0
41.7
39.6
39.1
38.3
64.0
61.9
63.2
63.5
59.4
59.9
60.7
62.6
57.7
56.8
59.1
58.9
54.3
53.8
54.7
49.2
48.7
50.8
51.2
47.7
49.8
51.2
52.2
48.9
49.0
51.9
51.5
48.4
47.9
50.6
18.3
18.2
19.2
19.8
18.6
19.5
19.9
20.8
19.9
20.5
21.1
21.3
20.6
21.2
22.0
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
4.1
4.1
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age-group)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
79.2
77.7
76.3
76.1
74.7
73.7
76.1
74.4
74.0
9.5
8.9
8.4
8.1
8.3
8.6
9.5
8.9
9.0
47.7
44.6
43.6
42.5
42.0
42.0
46.4
45.9
47.0
68.0
64.1
61.9
59.9
58.9
58.9
63.3
62.6
64.9
124.0
120.2
114.0
110.8
107.8
106.3
110.9
108.0
108.5
138.0
135.1
131.7
131.4
128.1
125.0
127.9
125.4
123.0
89.7
90.1
89.9
92.0
91.3
91.7
95.1
95.2
96.0
33.6
34.4
35.1
36.5
37.5
37.9
40.4
41.0
41.8
6.6
6.6
6.9
7.4
7.6
7.9
8.4
8.7
8.9
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
1999 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
77.3
75.2
75.0
76.7
73.2
74.1
73.5
76.9
74.1
73.0
73.9
75.0
72.0
70.8
71.2
10.0
9.8
9.1
9.0
8.6
9.4
8.5
8.9
9.1
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.0
8.5
8.1
47.5
46.9
44.4
47.3
45.5
46.8
43.9
47.8
48.3
47.1
45.4
47.3
45.2
44.9
43.9
65.6
63.9
59.9
63.8
61.9
62.6
60.2
65.6
66.0
65.0
62.7
66.6
64.3
62.3
60.8
115.1
109.8
106.3
112.0
107.1
107.5
103.8
112.7
109.7
107.5
105.4
109.9
106.8
104.3
100.9
129.6
125.9
127.7
128.9
123.6
123.8
124.9
129.6
122.7
120.1
124.5
125.1
118.8
117.3
118.8
94.6
93.4
96.1
96.7
91.7
94.6
96.3
98.4
94.3
93.7
98.3
97.8
94.1
92.3
96.9
39.8
39.4
40.8
41.6
39.6
40.8
41.0
42.4
41.3
41.7
42.1
42.1
41.3
41.7
42.7
8.1
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.9
8.3
8.9
8.5
8.9
9.0
9.2
8.8
9.2
9.1
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
19.9
50.8
41.1
19.4
51.1
39.9
19.3
48.6
39.1
19.2
49.9
39.2
19.5
50.3
39.8
19.7
47.6
38.7
20.8
49.2
40.0
21.3
49.7
40.6
22.3
52.4
42.0
35.7
34.5
33.9
34.3
34.7
34.6
36.2
36.8
37.8
22.3
22.2
22.3
22.8
23.4
24.2
25.7
26.7
27.8
13.5
13.4
13.9
13.9
14.3
14.8
15.6
16.4
17.1
13.8
13.7
13.9
13.5
13.6
13.6
14.1
14.2
14.9
23.1
22.0
22.2
21.5
21.1
20.7
21.2
21.0
21.5
43.2
41.6
41.5
40.2
40.9
38.0
37.6
38.0
37.9
36.1
36.6
35.2
37.0
36.0
36.7
36.6
37.6
37.3
38.2
37.9
37.7
38.0
38.6
38.7
25.5
26.5
24.7
26.3
26.6
27.1
25.8
27.2
27.7
28.4
27.3
28.0
27.9
28.6
28.5
15.9
16.0
14.9
15.8
16.6
16.8
15.8
16.5
17.3
17.6
16.6
17.0
17.2
18.0
17.2
14.4
14.4
13.3
14.2
14.5
14.6
13.5
14.3
15.2
15.3
14.4
14.7
14.7
15.5
14.1
21.8
21.8
20.2
21.0
21.0
21.9
20.7
20.6
21.7
22.2
21.3
21.0
21.6
21.5
20.6
37.1
38.2
37.3
37.9
38.6
39.1
36.4
37.8
37.0
38.9
37.6
38.2
36.2
37.8
37.3
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
1999 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
21.0
21.3
19.7
21.1
21.4
21.7
20.5
21.6
22.3
22.8
21.7
22.2
22.3
23.0
22.1
47.2
49.2
50.4
50.2
48.4
49.5
48.1
52.5
51.4
52.7
52.5
53.0
51.4
52.9
52.7
39.5
40.7
39.1
40.8
39.7
40.3
40.6
41.6
41.2
42.2
42.2
42.3
41.9
43.5
43.2
‡ Provisional
Notes: 1. Conceptions are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
2. Rates for women of all ages, under 16, under 18, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15–44, 13–15, 15–17, 15–19 and 40–44 respectively.
59
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 5.1
Winter 2000
Expectation of life (in years) at birth and selected age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Males
Year
At
birth
Females
At age
Year
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
At
birth
At age
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
United Kingdom*
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
68.8
69.6
70.8
71.9
73.2
65.3
66.0
66.9
67.8
68.9
50.9
51.4
52.3
53.2
54.3
41.3
41.9
42.7
43.6
44.7
23.0
23.4
24.1
24.9
26.0
15.3
15.7
16.3
16.8
17.7
9.5
9.6
10.1
10.5
11.1
5.5
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
75.0
75.2
76.8
77.7
78.8
71.4
72.0
72.7
73.5
74.4
56.7
57.3
57.9
58.7
59.6
47.0
47.5
48.1
48.9
49.7
28.3
28.7
29.2
29.8
30.7
19.8
20.3
20.8
21.2
21.9
12.5
12.9
13.3
13.8
14.4
6.9
7.2
7.5
7.9
8.4
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
73.7
73.9
74.1
74.3
74.6
74.9
69.3
69.5
69.7
69.9
70.2
70.4
54.6
54.8
55.0
55.2
55.5
55.7
45.1
45.2
45.5
45.7
45.9
46.2
26.4
26.5
26.8
26.9
27.2
27.4
18.0
18.1
18.4
18.5
18.8
19.0
11.3
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.8
11.9
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.8
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
79.1
79.2
79.4
79.5
79.6
79.8
74.6
74.7
74.9
75.0
75.1
75.3
59.8
59.9
60.1
60.1
60.3
60.4
50.0
50.1
50.3
50.3
50.5
50.6
30.9
31.0
31.2
31.2
31.4
31.5
22.1
22.2
22.4
22.4
22.6
22.7
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.8
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.6
England and Wales
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
69.0
69.9
71.0
72.1
73.4
65.6
66.2
67.1
68.0
69.1
51.1
51.6
52.5
53.4
54.5
41.5
42.1
42.9
43.8
44.9
23.1
23.5
24.3
25.0
26.2
15.4
15.8
16.4
16.9
17.9
9.5
9.7
10.1
10.6
11.2
5.5
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.4
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
75.2
76.0
77.0
77.9
79.0
71.6
72.2
72.9
73.6
74.6
56.9
57.4
58.1
58.9
59.8
47.1
47.7
48.3
49.0
49.9
28.4
28.8
29.4
30.0
30.8
20.0
20.4
20.9
21.4
22.1
12.6
13.0
13.4
13.9
14.5
7.0
7.2
7.5
7.9
8.4
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
74.0
74.1
74.4
74.6
74.8
75.1
69.6
69.7
70.0
70.2
70.4
70.7
54.9
55.0
55.2
55.4
55.7
55.9
45.3
45.4
45.7
45.9
46.1
46.4
26.5
26.7
26.9
27.1
27.4
27.6
18.2
18.3
18.5
18.7
18.9
19.1
11.4
11.4
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.0
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
79.3
79.4
79.6
79.7
79.8
80.0
74.8
74.9
75.1
75.2
75.3
75.5
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.3
60.5
60.6
50.2
50.3
50.4
50.5
50.7
50.8
31.1
31.2
31.3
31.4
31.6
31.7
22.3
22.3
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.8
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.7
14.8
14.9
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
England
1981
1986
1991
71.1
72.2
73.4
67.1
68.1
69.1
52.5
53.4
54.5
42.9
43.8
44.9
24.3
25.1
26.2
16.4
17.0
17.9
10.1
10.6
11.2
5.8
6.1
6.4
1981
1986
1991
77.0
77.9
79.0
72.9
73.7
74.6
58.2
58.9
59.8
48.4
49.1
49.9
29.4
30.0
30.9
20.9
21.4
22.1
13.4
13.9
14.5
7.5
7.9
8.4
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
74.0
74.1
74.4
74.6
74.9
75.1
69.6
69.7
70.0
70.2
70.5
70.7
54.9
55.0
55.3
55.5
55.7
56.0
45.3
45.5
45.7
45.9
46.2
46.4
26.6
26.7
27.0
27.2
27.4
27.6
18.2
18.3
18.5
18.7
18.9
19.1
11.4
11.4
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.0
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
79.3
79.4
79.6
79.7
79.9
80.0
74.9
74.9
75.1
75.2
75.4
75.5
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.4
60.5
60.7
50.2
50.3
50.5
50.6
50.7
50.8
31.1
31.2
31.4
31.4
31.6
31.7
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.8
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.7
14.8
14.9
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
Wales
1981
1986
1991
70.4
71.6
73.2
66.5
67.5
68.9
51.9
52.9
54.2
42.2
43.3
44.6
23.6
24.6
25.9
15.8
16.6
17.6
9.7
10.4
11.0
5.5
6.0
6.4
1981
1986
1991
76.4
77.6
78.9
72.3
73.3
74.4
57.5
58.5
59.6
47.7
48.7
49.8
28.9
29.7
30.7
20.4
21.1
21.9
13.1
13.8
14.4
7.4
7.8
8.4
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
73.5
73.5
73.8
74.0
74.4
74.5
69.1
69.1
69.4
69.5
69.9
70.1
54.4
54.4
54.7
54.8
55.2
55.4
44.9
44.9
45.2
45.4
45.7
45.9
26.1
26.2
26.5
26.6
27.0
27.2
17.8
17.9
18.1
18.3
18.6
18.7
11.2
11.1
11.3
11.4
11.6
11.7
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.8
6.8
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
79.0
79.0
79.2
79.2
79.4
79.5
74.5
74.5
74.7
74.7
74.9
75.0
59.7
59.7
59.8
59.8
60.0
60.1
49.9
49.8
50.0
50.0
50.2
50.3
30.8
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.1
31.2
22.0
22.0
22.2
22.2
22.4
22.4
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.6
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
Scotland
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
67.3
68.2
69.1
70.2
71.4
64.0
64.4
65.2
66.0
67.1
49.5
49.9
50.6
51.4
52.5
40.1
40.4
41.1
41.9
43.0
22.0
22.3
22.9
23.5
24.6
14.6
14.9
15.4
15.8
16.6
9.1
9.2
9.5
9.9
10.4
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.7
6.1
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
73.7
74.4
75.3
76.2
77.1
70.1
70.6
71.2
71.9
72.6
55.4
55.9
56.4
57.1
57.8
45.6
46.1
46.7
47.3
48.1
27.2
27.6
27.9
28.4
29.1
19.0
19.4
19.7
20.1
20.6
11.9
12.4
12.7
13.0
13.4
6.7
6.9
7.2
7.5
7.8
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
71.7
71.9
72.1
72.2
72.4
72.6
67.3
67.5
67.7
67.8
67.9
68.1
52.7
52.8
53.1
53.1
53.3
53.5
43.2
43.4
43.6
43.7
43.9
44.1
24.8
24.9
25.2
25.3
25.5
25.7
16.8
16.9
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.7
10.5
10.6
10.8
10.9
11.0
11.1
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.4
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
77.3
77.4
77.6
77.8
77.9
78.1
72.8
72.9
73.2
73.2
73.4
73.5
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.4
58.6
58.7
48.2
48.3
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.9
29.3
29.4
29.6
29.7
29.9
29.9
20.7
20.8
21.0
21.1
21.3
21.3
13.4
13.5
13.7
13.7
13.8
13.8
7.8
7.8
7.9
7.9
7.9
7.9
Northern Ireland*
1981
69.2
1986
70.9
1991
72.6
65.4
66.8
68.2
50.9
52.2
53.6
41.5
42.7
44.1
23.2
24.2
25.5
15.6
16.4
17.3
9.7
10.4
11.0
5.8
6.2
6.4
1981
1986
1991
75.5
77.1
78.4
71.6
72.9
74.0
56.8
58.1
59.2
47.1
48.3
49.4
28.3
29.3
30.3
20.0
20.8
21.6
12.8
13.4
14.2
7.3
7.8
8.3
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
68.6
68.8
69.1
69.4
69.7
69.8
54.0
54.2
54.5
54.7
55.0
55.1
44.6
44.7
45.0
45.2
45.5
45.6
25.8
26.0
26.3
26.5
26.8
26.9
17.6
17.8
18.0
18.2
18.3
18.5
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.3
11.5
11.6
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
78.7
78.6
78.9
79.2
79.5
79.5
74.3
74.2
74.5
74.7
75.0
75.0
59.4
59.4
59.6
59.9
60.2
60.2
49.6
49.6
49.8
50.0
50.3
50.4
30.6
30.6
30.8
30.9
31.2
31.3
21.8
21.9
22.0
22.1
22.4
22.4
14.3
14.3
14.4
14.4
14.6
14.5
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.3
73.0
73.1
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.3
Note: Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 1991 Census. All figures are based on a three-year period; see Notes to tables for further
information.
‡
Provisional.
*
United Kingdom and Northern Ireland data has been revised to take account of changed Northern Ireland population estimates from 1981.
National Statistics
60
Population Trends 102
Table 6.1
Winter 2000
Deaths: age and sex**
Numbers (thousands) and rates
England and Wales
Age group
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 1*
1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
288.4
300.1
289.0
287.9
277.6
7.97
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
1.23
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.92
0.68
0.45
0.32
0.34
0.69
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
1.54
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
1.77
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
3.05
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
6.68
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
21.0
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
55.7
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
89.8
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
71.9
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
26.1
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
279.6
267.6
274.4
268.7
264.9
264.7
264.3
2.41
2.37
2.31
2.27
2.14
2.07
2.08
0.51
0.43
0.39
0.44
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.24
0.27
0.24
0.22
0.34
0.33
0.34
0.29
0.33
0.29
0.28
0.91
0.84
0.91
0.93
0.95
0.88
0.90
1.60
1.55
1.53
1.41
1.44
1.29
1.27
3.81
4.07
4.04
4.06
3.94
4.01
3.85
5.78
5.77
5.88
5.84
5.71
5.90
5.93
13.4
12.9
13.5
13.6
13.5
13.6
13.6
33.3
31.3
31.0
30.1
28.9
29.1
28.7
78.9
76.3
75.0
71.0
68.0
66.1
64.3
93.8
88.2
92.3
90.7
90.2
90.5
90.4
44.5
43.2
47.1
47.8
49.1
50.4
52.3
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
278.9
298.5
288.9
293.3
292.5
5.75
3.46
2.90
2.59
2.19
0.98
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.44
0.57
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.42
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.63
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.79
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
1.84
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
4.53
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
13.3
12.8
10.5
8.8
8.4
30.8
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
64.0
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
95.0
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
60.4
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
299.2
285.6
295.2
291.5
290.4
290.3
291.8
1.84
1.75
1.68
1.69
1.66
1.56
1.55
0.37
0.36
0.33
0.32
0.30
0.31
0.30
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.25
0.20
0.21
0.20
0.21
0.19
0.22
0.39
0.36
0.38
0.43
0.43
0.41
0.39
0.58
0.54
0.50
0.51
0.49
0.48
0.47
1.80
1.77
1.86
1.85
1.72
1.72
1.67
3.63
3.67
3.64
3.66
3.74
3.68
3.79
8.6
8.7
9.0
8.9
9.0
9.1
9.0
20.4
19.0
18.9
18.2
18.0
17.9
18.0
55.2
53.9
53.0
50.2
48.3
46.9
45.1
100.9
94.2
97.2
96.7
95.5
94.7
93.9
105.0
101.0
108.4
108.7
110.9
113.2
117.2
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age group)
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
12.1
12.5
12.0
11.8
11.2
19.8
16.2
12.6
11.0
8.3
0.76
0.65
0.53
0.44
0.40
0.44
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.37
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.90
0.88
0.82
0.71
0.69
0.93
0.96
0.83
0.82
0.86
0.97
0.92
0.89
0.87
0.94
2.31
2.09
1.83
1.67
1.76
7.07
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.62
20.1
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.8
50.5
50.3
45.6
42.9
38.5
113.0
116.4
105.2
101.1
93.6
231.8
243.2
226.5
214.8
197.1
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
11.1
10.6
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
7.0
6.9
6.9
7.0
6.5
6.4
6.5
0.36
0.31
0.28
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.21
0.20
0.21
0.18
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.59
0.55
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.53
0.54
0.83
0.83
0.86
0.83
0.89
0.82
0.80
0.91
0.96
0.95
095
0.93
0.96
0.93
1.67
1.66
1.67
1.62
1.54
1.55
1.51
4.24
3.99
4.08
4.02
3.94
3.94
3.93
13.3
12.4
12.3
12.0
11.5
11.3
10.9
37.9
36.2
36.1
34.5
33.2
32.4
31.6
93.3
89.5
89.4
85.1
82.5
81.2
80.1
202.3
188.6
196.0
192.1
190.3
187.2
187.9
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
9.3
10.8
5.6
7.2
0.29
0.28
0.13
0.12
0.16
0.13
0.51
0.51
0.78
0.70
0.92
0.94
1.51
1.53
3.82
3.97
10.5
11.7
29.6
33.8
73.4
86.3
162.1
207.1
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
12.0
9.4
9.0
10.4
7.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
0.35
0.28
0.28
0.31
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.18
0.58
0.55
0.52
0.52
0.92
0.78
0.75
0.76
0.93
0.98
0.85
0.98
1.67
1.50
1.45
1.43
4.24
3.79
3.65
4.04
12.0
10.5
10.1
11.0
36.6
29.6
28.2
32.2
95.6
73.5
70.0
81.6
236.9
162.8
156.4
196.4
2000 March‡
2000 June‡
11.9
9.4
6.4
6.3
0.33
0.26
0.13
0.12
0.15
0.16
0.54
0.49
0.96
0.72
0.96
0.87
1.72
1.58
4.23
3.83
12.7
10.6
35.0
28.8
95.8
74.0
245.6
178.1
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
11.0
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.3
15.1
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
0.63
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.29
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.24
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.39
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.28
0.42
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.60
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.45
1.59
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.06
4.32
4.30
3.80
3.23
2.91
10.0
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.1
26.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
22.0
73.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.6
185.7
196.6
178.2
171.0
163.8
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
11.4
10.9
11.2
11.0
10.9
10.9
10.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.0
5.1
0.28
0.27
0.25
0.24
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.16
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.27
0.25
0.26
0.29
0.28
0.26
0.25
0.31
0.30
0.29
0.31
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.45
0.44
0.46
0.45
0.42
0.43
0.43
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.03
1.03
0.99
0.99
2.73
2.68
2.72
2.62
2.63
2.62
2.60
7.9
7.3
7.3
7.1
6.9
6.8
6.7
22.0
21.3
21.4
20.7
20.2
19.9
19.3
59.4
56.9
57.1
55.8
54.6
53.9
53.5
156.5
146.6
153.1
150.8
151.8
151.5
154.8
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
9.7
11.7
4.7
5.7
0.20
0.29
0.08
0.11
0.10
0.13
0.28
0.22
0.29
0.32
0.42
0.40
1.00
1.01
2.48
2.73
6.3
7.2
18.0
20.8
47.9
57.6
132.1
165.9
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
13.4
9.8
9.4
11.1
5.7
5.1
4.7
5.0
0.29
0.23
0.18
0.25
0.13
0.06
0.10
0.11
0.15
0.12
0.11
0.13
0.28
0.22
0.24
0.24
0.33
0.33
0.28
0.32
0.47
0.42
0.40
0.42
1.07
0.97
0.91
1.03
2.83
2.53
2.45
2.61
7.3
6.3
6.3
6.9
22.7
17.7
17.2
19.7
65.5
48.1
46.2
54.3
199.7
134.9
127.4
157.9
2000 March‡
2000 June‡
13.0
9.8
5.5
4.7
0.23
0.21
0.10
0.08
0.13
0.10
0.28
0.24
0.32
0.30
0.45
0.41
1.11
1.00
2.85
2.57
7.6
6.5
21.1
17.1
62.9
47.5
197.9
136.3
* Rates per 1,000 live births. ‡ Provisional registrations.
** 1998 deaths figures for England and Wales in Health Statistics Quarterly 03 and 04 were incorrectly shown as being final when they were still provisional. The final 1998 figures are those shown here.
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the numbers of deaths occurring in each year from 1993.
61
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 6.2
Year and
quarter
Winter 2000
Deaths: subnational**
Rates
Northern and
Yorkshire
Health Regional Office areas of England*
Trent
Eastern
London
South
East
South
West
West
Midlands
North
West
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)
1993
11.8
11.4
1994
11.2
10.8
1995
11.3
11.0
1996
11.2
10.9
1997
11.0
10.8
1998
11.3
11.0
1999
11.0
10.8
10.4
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.1
10.1
10.1
9.9
9.4
9.6
9.2
8.9
8.6
8.6
10.9
10.4
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.3
12.0
11.4
11.9
11.5
11.5
11.3
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.9
10.6
10.5
10.5
10.6
12.1
11.5
11.6
11.5
11.4
11.5
11.3
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
10.0
11.9
9.6
12.1
9.2
10.9
7.9
9.2
9.2
10.7
10.2
11.7
9.4
11.3
10.3
12.3
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
13.1
10.0
9.5
11.3
12.8
9.7
9.4
11.1
12.3
9.3
8.8
10.3
10.2
7.8
7.3
8.9
12.5
9.3
9.0
10.5
13.8
10.5
10.1
11.5
12.8
9.5
9.0
11.1
13.6
10.2
10.0
11.2
2000 March‡
2000 June‡
12.9
9.8
12.6
9.8
12.1
9.4
10.2
7.7
12.5
9.3
14.0
10.8
12.5
9.7
12.8
10.1
Infant mortality (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
1993
6.8
7.0
1994
6.8
7.2
1995
6.6
6.4
1996
6.3
6.3
1997
6.2
5.9
1998
6.1
6.0
1999
6.0
6.1
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.6
6.4
6.3
6.4
6.3
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.4
4.9
5.2
5.4
5.0
4.5
5.0
5.8
5.3
5.3
5.5
5.8
4.8
4.7
7.0
7.2
7.1
6.8
7.0
6.5
6.9
6.5
6.2
6.6
6.4
6.7
6.3
6.5
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
5.1
6.3
5.4
6.9
4.6
5.9
5.0
7.5
4.0
5.5
4.9
5.1
5.9
6.8
6.0
7.1
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
7.3
6.0
4.8
6.0
6.5
5.6
6.4
5.6
4.5
4.7
4.4
5.0
5.5
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.0
4.6
4.6
4.7
5.8
4.0
4.0
5.0
7.6
7.4
6.4
6.3
7.4
5.8
6.7
6.1
2000 March‡
2000 June‡
7.7
7.4
6.0
5.6
4.3
4.5
5.7
4.9
5.2
4.3
5.1
4.8
7.3
7.2
6.2
6.2
Neonatal mortality (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
1993
4.2
4.7
3.7
1994
4.5
5.0
3.4
1995
4.5
4.5
3.4
1996
4.1
4.2
3.5
1997
4.1
3.9
3.3
1998
3.8
4.2
3.4
1999
4.0
4.4
3.0
4.5
4.2
4.3
4.4
3.6
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.7
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.3
3.2
4.8
5.4
5.3
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.0
3.9
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.1
4.3
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
3.1
4.2
3.8
4.3
3.4
3.7
3.8
5.1
2.8
3.4
3.4
3.4
4.2
5.0
4.3
4.3
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
4.8
4.1
3.4
3.9
4.6
4.1
5.3
3.6
2.7
3.0
3.4
2.9
3.7
4.1
4.6
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.5
2.9
3.8
2.6
2.7
4.0
4.9
5.7
4.5
4.0
4.6
3.8
4.7
4.4
2000 March‡
2000 June‡
5.2
4.6
4.3
3.9
3.0
3.0
4.2
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.1
4.7
5.4
4.6
3.9
Perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)†
1993
9.3
8.9
8.1
1994
9.2
9.1
7.8
1995
9.5
9.3
7.7
1996
8.5
8.7
7.5
1997
8.2
7.9
7.3
1998
8.6
8.7
7.4
1999
8.3
8.1
7.0
9.5
9.5
9.7
9.6
8.9
9.0
9.0
8.4
7.6
7.5
7.8
7.3
6.8
6.9
7.9
7.9
7.4
7.5
8.7
7.3
7.8
9.9
10.6
10.1
10.2
9.6
9.3
9.9
8.9
9.2
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.8
8.6
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
7.0
8.8
8.8
8.5
6.4
8.6
8.4
9.9
6.9
7.5
7.6
8.2
8.0
9.4
7.0
9.7
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
9.5
9.0
7.5
7.2
9.1
8.1
9.0
6.3
6.8
7.7
6.7
6.9
9.2
9.0
8.4
9.2
7.8
6.7
6.5
6.7
8.6
7.0
8.0
7.8
10.5
10.8
9.8
8.6
8.5
7.9
9.1
8.9
2000 March‡
2000 June‡
10.0
9.4
6.8
9.1
7.1
6.0
10.0
8.1
7.7
6.5
6.4
7.0
9.9
9.9
8.9
8.3
* The Regional Office boundaries were revised from 1 April 1999. See Health Statistics Quarterly 03 In Brief for details of the changes. Earlier years’ figures have been revised to reflect the new
boundaries.
† In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed, from a baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of
gestation or more.
‡ Provisional registrations.
** 1998 deaths figures for England and Wales Health Statistics Quarterly 03 and 04 were incorrectly shown as being final when they were still provisional. The final 1998 figures are those shown here.
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993.
National Statistics
62
Population Trends 102
Table 7.1
United Kingdom
International migration: age and sex
Numbers (thousands)
All ages
Year and quarter
Winter 2000
0–14
15–24
25–44
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
200
191
153
250
267
216
103
100
83
120
122
99
97
91
71
130
144
117
33
32
30
45
48
33
17
16
16
22
20
17
17
17
14
23
28
16
65
64
48
79
83
66
28
32
24
34
36
25
37
32
24
45
47
41
81
77
60
101
109
91
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
213
253
245
272
285
332
354
101
126
130
130
143
167
181
112
127
115
143
142
165
173
34
36
28
32
40
33
32
17
22
20
13
20
16
19
17
14
9
19
21
18
13
73
76
88
97
116
114
127
28
30
40
40
51
51
56
44
47
48
57
65
63
71
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
139
68
66
40
73
28
14
7
8
2
7
5
58
20
24
11
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
77
67
141
69
42
34
75
30
35
33
66
40
8
6
14
4
4
5
10
1
4
1
5
3
22
24
59
22
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
240
210
233
213
239
227
124
118
133
107
120
113
116
93
100
106
119
114
51
40
49
37
39
35
26
20
25
17
17
17
24
21
24
20
22
19
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
216
191
192
216
225
199
245
113
92
102
105
121
100
132
103
98
90
111
103
99
114
32
26
29
33
25
20
24
20
15
14
13
13
12
18
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
74
45
35
23
39
22
7
3
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
50
53
79
63
26
31
40
34
24
22
39
28
Males
45 and over
Females
Persons
Males
Females
48
43
34
49
54
44
33
34
26
51
55
48
21
18
15
25
27
26
10
9
9
16
12
14
11
9
7
10
15
12
87
117
107
117
105
163
72
44
60
57
61
59
88
91
43
57
50
56
46
75
81
20
24
22
26
24
21
23
12
15
14
15
13
12
14
8
9
8
11
11
9
9
33
8
60
36
30
23
29
13
7
5
3
3
4
2
11
8
27
11
11
16
32
11
41
32
60
38
24
18
34
15
17
14
26
23
6
4
7
6
3
3
5
3
3
1
2
2
64
52
51
47
59
58
28
26
29
19
31
25
36
25
22
28
29
33
99
97
108
98
113
110
57
59
64
55
58
57
42
38
44
43
55
52
27
21
25
32
28
24
12
12
14
17
15
14
15
9
11
15
13
10
11
11
15
20
11
8
6
49
48
54
49
66
52
67
20
19
24
17
34
20
32
30
29
31
32
32
31
35
106
95
85
117
112
105
126
56
49
52
64
61
55
67
51
46
33
53
51
50
59
28
23
24
18
22
22
29
17
10
13
11
13
12
16
11
13
11
6
9
10
14
4
2
3
1
25
12
10
4
15
8
37
24
18
13
19
12
5
5
3
4
2
1
6
3
11
4
4
3
9
2
2
1
2
1
11
15
24
16
6
7
11
9
5
8
13
8
28
28
36
34
13
16
18
20
15
12
18
14
5
7
9
8
3
6
3
4
2
2
6
4
2
3
5
1
3
1
– 4
–
– 4
– 6
+ 2
+ 2
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
–
–
–
+
+
–
40
19
79
37
28
11
– 22
– 18
– 50
+ 13
+ 2
– 14
– 19
– 1
– 29
+ 24
+ 26
+ 3
– 17
– 8
– 19
+ 8
+ 8
– 3
– 10
– 4
– 9
+ 5
+ 3
–
– 8
– 4
+ 10
+ 3
+ 5
– 2
+ 1
+ 12
– 2
+ 32
+ 24
+ 8
–
+ 6
– 5
+ 15
+ 6
–
+1
+7
+2
+18
+18
+8
– 18
– 20
– 48
+ 3
– 3
– 18
– 10
– 16
– 31
– 5
– 4
– 13
– 9
– 4
– 18
+ 8
+ 1
– 5
– 6
– 3
– 10
– 7
– 1
+ 1
–
–
–
–
–
–
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
– 2
+ 62
+ 54
+ 56
+ 60
+133
+109
– 12
+ 34
+ 28
+ 24
+ 22
+ 68
+ 49
+ 10
+ 28
+ 26
+ 32
+ 38
+ 66
+ 60
+ 2
+ 10
–
– 1
+ 16
+ 13
+ 8
– 3
+ 6
+ 6
–
+ 7
+ 4
+ 1
+ 6
+ 3
– 6
– 1
+ 9
+ 10
+ 7
+ 23
+ 29
+ 34
+ 48
+ 49
+ 62
+ 60
+ 8
+ 11
+ 16
+ 23
+ 16
+ 31
+ 24
+ 15
+ 17
+ 17
+ 25
+ 33
+ 32
+36
– 20
+ 22
+ 22
–
– 7
+ 59
+ 46
– 11
+ 11
+ 5
– 3
– 1
+ 33
+ 25
– 8
+ 11
+ 17
+ 3
– 6
+ 25
+ 22
–
+
–
+
+
–
–
–
+
+
+
6
5
1
4
–
–
– 1
–
–
–
+
+
–
–
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
+ 65
+ 23
+ 31
+ 17
+ 33
+ 6
+ 8
+ 4
+ 4
–
+ 4
+ 4
+ 33
+ 8
+ 15
+ 7
+18
+1
+ 23
+ 12
+ 13
+ 11
+ 10
+ 1
+ 1
– 1
–
– 1
+ 1
–
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
+
+
+
+
+ 16
+ 3
+ 35
– 5
+ 12
+ 10
+ 26
+ 12
+ 2
+ 3
+ 3
–
–
+
+
–
+
+
+
+
+ 11
+ 8
+ 35
+ 5
+ 6
+ 1
+ 16
+ 2
+6
+8
+19
+3
+ 13
+ 5
+ 24
+ 4
+ 11
+ 2
+ 16
– 5
+
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
– 2
+ 2
– 1
+
–
–
–
27
13
61
7
1
2
1
1
2
1
3
1
2
2
8
9
9
2
1
8
2
1
6
1
3
2
3
3
4
2
5
2
1
5
1
1
3
2
‡ Provisional.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons
seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
63
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 7.2
Winter 2000
International migration: country of last or next residence
Numbers (thousands)
United Kingdom
Commonwealth countries
Year and quarter
Other foreign countries
All
countries
European
Union*
Australia,
New
Zealand,
Canada
South
Africa
India,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka†
Pakistan†
Caribbean
Other
USA
Middle
East**
Other**
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
200
191
153
250
266
216
21
33
25
72
75
72
52
40
20
30
47
34
8
9
3
18
8
7
24
15
18
16
12
9
:
12
9
10
12
8
5
4
3
5
3
2
36
32
19
25
33
24
22
16
17
26
25
18
:
7
11
15
8
5
31
23
27
34
44
36
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
213
253
245
272
285
56
78
71
82
92
36
34
39
40
44
9
8
4
11
13
13
10
11
12
19
7
6
5
9
7
2
1
2
3
3
19
28
27
25
28
23
30
27
33
24
9
11
11
12
13
40
48
48
44
42
1998
1999
332
354
96
90
70
64
21
28
13
17
7
8
4
4
27
29
39
29
10
11
45
73
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
139
68
54
17
20
17
6
5
4
3
1
1
2
1
11
3
15
12
4
3
21
7
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
77
67
141
69
19
13
42
16
19
15
17
13
10
5
5
8
4
4
6
4
1
3
3
2
1
2
1
1
6
5
13
5
6
5
13
4
1
2
5
2
9
13
36
15
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
240
210
232
213
239
227
31
39
33
62
72
60
99
63
78
50
53
44
21
21
23
2
6
5
8
4
2
4
5
3
:
2
1
2
3
2
8
3
3
2
2
3
23
17
20
13
19
15
17
21
25
34
32
37
:
6
23
16
13
13
34
33
23
28
34
46
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
216
191
192
216
225
199
245
67
55
55
72
70
60
80
48
38
44
50
49
48
63
3
4
5
5
7
5
7
4
2
2
4
4
3
2
2
3
2
1
2
1
–
3
3
2
1
3
2
2
17
17
13
21
20
13
13
33
24
28
23
25
24
32
9
11
9
6
11
7
9
30
33
33
33
34
36
36
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
74
45
26
13
12
14
2
2
2
1
1
–
–
–
6
2
9
5
3
1
14
6
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
50
53
79
63
18
16
33
13
12
12
17
22
1
2
2
1
1
–
–
1
–
–
–
–
–
1
1
2
3
4
4
3
7
8
9
8
1
2
2
3
6
9
11
10
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 27
– 11
– 10
– 6
– 8
+ 9
+ 4
+ 12
–
–
–
–
–
–
46
23
58
21
6
10
– 13
– 12
– 20
+ 16
+ 2
+ 2
+
+
+
+
+
+
16
12
15
12
8
6
:
+ 10
+ 8
+ 8
+ 8
+ 6
– 3
–
+ 1
+ 3
+ 2
– 1
+ 14
+ 15
– 2
+ 12
+ 13
+ 8
+
–
–
–
–
–
6
4
8
8
7
19
:
+ 1
– 12
–
– 5
– 7
–
–
+
+
+
–
3
10
5
6
9
9
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
– 2
+ 62
+ 54
+ 56
+ 60
+133
+109
– 11
+ 23
+ 16
+ 10
+ 22
+ 36
+ 10
–
–
–
–
–
+
+
12
5
4
10
5
22
1
+ 6
+ 4
– 1
+ 7
+ 6
+ 16
+ 22
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
9
8
9
8
15
9
15
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
1
3
1
2
1
3
2
+ 2
+ 11
+ 14
+ 4
+ 7
+ 14
+ 16
– 10
+ 6
–
+ 10
– 2
+ 14
– 3
– 1
–
+ 3
+ 5
+ 2
+ 3
+ 2
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
10
15
15
11
8
9
37
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
+ 65
+ 23
+ 28
+ 3
+ 9
+ 3
+ 4
+ 3
+ 3
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
+ 2
–
+ 5
–
+ 6
+ 7
+ 1
+ 2
+ 7
+ 1
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
+ 27
+ 13
+ 61
+ 7
+
–
+
+
+ 7
+ 3
–
– 9
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ 1
+ 1
–
–
+
+
+
+
–
–
+
–
–
– 1
+ 3
– 1
+
+
+
+
‡
*
†
**
1
2
9
3
9
4
3
7
3
3
5
3
5
3
4
8
5
6
8
1
3
2
2
4
1
9
2
1
3
4
4
3
4
25
5
Provisional.
For 1971 the European Union figures are for the original six countries only. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted.
For 1971 Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
For 1971 Middle East is included in the Other category of Other Foreign Countries.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they exclude persons
seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
National Statistics
64
Population Trends 102
Table 7.3
Winter 2000
International migration: citizenship
Numbers (thousands)
United Kingdom
Citizenship (numbers)
Year and quarter
All countries
British
Non-British
European
Commonwealth
Other
foreign
Union*
All
Old
New
British citizens as
percentage of all
citizens
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
200
191
153
250
267
216
92
87
60
120
117
99
108
104
93
130
150
116
:
19
12
36
32
24
53
57
43
50
64
52
17
17
12
19
27
18
36
40
31
31
37
34
54
28
38
44
54
40
46
45
39
48
44
46
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
213
253
245
272
285
332
354
92
118
91
104
97
111
116
122
135
154
168
188
221
239
25
31
41
54
61
68
60
50
50
59
63
80
94
99
23
20
28
30
33
58
55
27
31
31
32
47
36
45
46
55
54
52
47
59
79
43
47
37
38
34
33
33
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
139
68
40
24
98
44
39
12
31
22
16
16
15
6
29
10
29
36
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
77
67
141
69
27
22
40
26
50
45
100
44
12
8
30
9
28
22
30
19
18
15
12
10
10
8
19
8
9
14
40
16
35
33
29
37
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
240
210
232
213
239
227
171
137
164
132
137
133
69
73
68
81
102
94
:
18
16
13
32
17
29
30
29
29
35
29
13
16
14
19
17
15
16
13
15
10
18
14
40
25
24
40
35
48
71
65
71
62
57
59
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
216
191
192
216
225
199
245
127
108
118
139
131
111
115
89
82
74
77
94
88
130
23
23
20
24
32
26
47
30
27
26
28
34
29
38
16
12
16
16
18
19
29
14
14
9
12
16
10
10
35
33
28
25
28
33
45
59
57
62
64
58
56
47
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
74
45
47
17
27
28
6
11
9
9
4
7
5
2
12
8
63
38
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
50
53
79
63
27
26
38
24
23
27
41
39
10
8
19
11
7
8
9
14
6
6
5
12
1
2
4
2
6
12
13
13
54
49
48
38
40
19
79
37
28
11
– 79
– 50
– 104
– 11
– 20
– 34
+
+
+
+
+
+
39
31
24
49
47
23
:
+ 1
– 4
+ 22
–
+ 8
+
+
+
+
+
+
24
27
14
21
29
23
+ 4
+ 1
– 2
–
+ 10
+ 3
+
+
+
+
+
+
20
27
16
21
19
20
+
+
+
+
+
–
14
3
15
5
19
8
:
:
:
:
:
:
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
20
24
33
35
46
65
61
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
13
16
22
21
32
26
35
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
11
22
26
26
20
26
34
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
–
–
–
+
+
–
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
– 2
+ 62
+ 54
+ 56
+ 60
+133
+109
–
+
–
–
–
35
10
27
36
34
–
+ 1
+ 33
+ 53
+ 81
+ 92
+ 94
+133
+108
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
+ 65
+ 23
– 7
+ 7
+ 71
+ 16
+ 33
+ 1
+ 21
+ 12
+ 11
+ 8
+ 10
+ 4
+ 17
+ 2
:
:
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
+
+
+
+
+
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ 21
+ 14
+ 21
+ 4
+
+
+
–
+
+
+
+
+ 3
+ 2
+ 27
+ 2
:
:
:
:
27
13
61
7
1
4
2
2
27
17
59
5
2
8
21
30
29
42
13
3
–
+ 11
– 1
7
7
11
14
14
39
26
12
9
7
2
9
5
15
6
‡ Provisional.
* For 1971 citizens of the European Union are included in Other Foreign category. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted.
Note: All citizenship groups for 1976 onwards are as currently constituted. Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and
the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted exetnsions of stay. For adjustment
required, see Notes to tables.
65
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 8.1
Winter 2000
Internal migration
Numbers (thousands)
Recorded movements between constituent countries of the United Kingdom and
Government Office Regions of England
Government Office Regions of England
Year and quarter
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern North East North
Ireland
West and
Merseyside
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
Inflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
105.4
94.3
115.6
95.8
99.3
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
51.9
50.4
46.9
43.9
55.8
54.7
9.7
7.2
8.8
12.5
11.7
39.2
31.1
36.5
40.2
40.3
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
98.6
103.4
108.1
111.1
110.9
111.2
111.7
51.5
52.0
54.7
55.3
58.5
56.3
57.9
54.1
51.7
48.5
47.0
55.3
52.6
50.9
10.7
10.9
14.1
11.4
10.2
11.7
11.6
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
23.6
25.1
37.5
25.0
11.8
11.7
20.5
12.3
12.6
11.7
15.7
12.6
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
21.1
26.3
38.8
25.5
10.6
11.9
21.5
13.9
Outflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
104.8
92.8
100.7
112.2
110.7
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
South
West
93.0
79.3
90.0
96.1
97.9
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
88.1
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
91.5
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
83.8
146.3
121.4
144.6
122.1
121.6
..
155.2
182.8
148.8
152.5
215.4
201.8
243.3
197.6
202.5
123.8
108.4
148.8
120.7
121.3
38.3
37.1
37.9
38.6
38.6
39.0
38.7
97.1
99.7
103.7
105.0
106.5
103.8
105.4
87.8
87.6
90.8
90.8
92.6
92.9
95.2
93.3
96.4
101.3
102.1
107.7
107.9
111.3
83.0
84.8
90.0
90.6
92.7
93.4
93.6
123.3
130.6
134.6
139.5
145.0
142.8
148.0
150.5
160.4
170.7
168.0
167.3
171.2
162.9
206.3
215.5
218.6
228.0
229.6
226.1
228.5
121.1
127.7
131.6
138.5
144.0
138.6
143.1
2.8
2.6
3.8
2.5
7.9
7.8
14.8
8.5
21.2
22.5
36.6
23.4
17.2
18.4
37.0
20.3
21.0
22.8
40.2
23.8
18.7
20.3
32.9
21.5
30.3
32.7
46.7
33.1
37.1
38.5
56.3
39.3
46.0
50.1
77.2
52.8
28.5
31.4
47.4
31.3
11.7
10.5
17.0
11.8
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
7.3
7.5
15.3
8.6
19.4
23.0
39.2
23.7
16.6
18.9
37.7
22.0
20.5
23.5
41.4
25.9
18.0
20.2
33.1
22.3
30.9
33.6
47.3
36.1
35.8
36.1
52.7
38.4
46.1
50.5
78.4
53.6
26.1
33.4
49.0
34.5
43.9
41.9
49.8
47.4
48.4
54.5
48.2
57.9
46.7
47.5
14.2
10.1
15.1
9.3
11.0
40.2
39.1
45.6
40.9
40.1
102.9
98.6
115.8
104.9
106.7
78.5
73.4
90.5
85.4
86.1
77.2
71.8
84.8
81.4
81.9
89.5
78.5
94.8
87.9
90.3
115.6
104.4
128.1
113.0
114.3
..
187.1
232.4
202.1
204.0
181.7
166.0
204.1
184.6
186.9
94.7
88.1
102.5
98.9
100.3
108.2
106.3
107.9
105.3
114.8
111.3
111.5
48.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
54.4
54.2
53.3
46.9
49.0
52.0
54.5
53.2
53.8
54.9
11.5
12.2
12.3
11.8
12.6
12.4
12.5
41.7
43.5
45.6
44.5
44.5
43.7
43.8
105.7
109.8
115.8
114.0
117.5
115.8
114.9
87.5
91.9
97.6
98.2
100.0
97.9
97.0
83.2
86.2
91.9
94.3
97.4
97.0
96.4
92.2
95.1
98.1
101.0
103.7
100.7
101.6
113.1
115.5
118.7
121.1
124.8
124.3
125.8
203.4
206.3
207.6
213.4
221.7
217.9
227.9
183.1
190.4
195.8
198.9
205.7
207.5
208.7
100.6
103.9
108.0
109.8
112.4
110.9
110.4
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
25.3
24.2
36.7
25.1
11.4
12.4
18.4
12.0
11.7
12.4
17.3
12.5
2.4
2.1
5.0
2.8
9.0
9.8
15.2
9.7
23.9
25.6
40.6
25.7
19.8
22.2
33.7
22.1
19.8
21.5
33.9
21.9
20.6
22.0
36.0
22.1
25.0
25.7
45.4
28.3
46.9
48.1
71.2
51.7
42.5
45.4
72.2
47.4
22.3
23.5
40.0
25.1
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
23.4
23.5
38.3
26.3
10.4
12.4
18.3
12.2
10.5
13.3
18.3
12.8
2.2
2.5
5.1
2.7
8.7
9.7
15.5
9.9
22.7
25.5
40.7
26.0
19.1
22.0
33.6
22.2
19.3
21.0
33.9
22.2
19.2
22.0
37.0
23.4
24.7
25.9
45.4
29.8
47.0
50.1
74.0
56.8
40.6
44.7
73.5
49.9
21.6
23.1
40.0
25.7
Balance
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
+ 0.6
+ 1.5
+14.9
– 16.4
– 11.4
+
+
+
+
+
8.1
2.7
5.4
4.0
3.5
– 4.1
– 1.3
–14.1
+ 9.2
+ 7.2
–
–
–
+
+
4.5
2.9
6.3
3.2
0.7
–
–
–
–
+
1.0
8.0
9.1
0.7
0.2
– 9.8
–19.3
–25.8
– 8.8
– 8.8
– 0.3
– 5.1
– 11.9
– 0.4
+ 1.9
+ 6.8
+ 4.8
+17.1
+ 8.1
+ 9.6
– 13.8
– 11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
– 6.5
+30.7
+17.0
+16.5
+ 9.1
+ 7.2
–
–
–
–
..
32.0
49.6
53.3
51.5
+33.7
+35.8
+39.2
+13.0
+15.6
+29.1
+20.2
+46.4
+21.8
+21.1
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
–
–
+
+
–
–
+
9.7
2.9
0.2
5.8
3.8
0.1
0.2
+ 3.2
+ 1.5
+ 1.6
+ 2.0
+ 4.1
+ 2.1
+4.7
+ 7.2
+ 2.6
– 3.5
– 7.5
+ 2.2
– 1.2
– 4.0
–
–
+
–
–
–
–
0.8
1.2
1.8
0.4
2.4
0.8
0.8
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
3.4
6.4
7.7
5.9
5.9
4.7
5.1
– 8.6
–10.1
–12.1
– 9.0
–11.0
–12.0
– 9.5
+
–
–
–
–
–
–
0.3
4.4
6.8
7.4
7.3
5.0
1.8
+10.1
+10.2
+ 9.4
+ 7.8
+10.3
+10.9
+14.9
– 9.2
– 10.3
– 8.1
– 10.4
– 11.1
– 7.3
– 8.0
+10.2
+15.1
+15.9
+18.3
+20.3
+18.5
+22.2
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
52.9
45.9
36.9
45.4
54.4
46.7
65.0
+23.3
+25.1
+22.7
+29.1
+23.8
+18.6
+19.8
+20.5
+23.8
+23.6
+28.7
+31.6
+27.7
+32.7
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
–
+
+
–
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.1
+ 0.4
– 0.7
+ 2.1
+ 0.3
+
–
–
+
1.0
0.6
1.7
0.1
+ 0.3
+ 0.5
– 1.2
– 0.4
– 1.1
– 2.0
– 0.4
– 1.2
– 2.6
– 3.1
– 4.0
– 2.3
–
–
+
–
2.6
3.8
3.2
1.8
+
+
+
+
1.3
1.3
6.3
2.0
–
–
–
–
1.9
1.7
3.1
0.6
+ 5.3
+ 7.1
+ 1.2
+ 4.8
–
–
–
–
9.8
9.6
14.9
12.4
+ 3.5
+ 4.8
+ 5.0
+ 5.3
+ 6.2
+ 7.9
+ 7.4
+ 6.1
1999 March
1999 June
1999 Sept
1999 Dec
–
+
+
–
2.3
2.7
0.5
0.8
+
–
+
+
+
–
–
–
1.2
2.8
1.4
1.0
+
+
–
+
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
+
–
2.5
3.1
4.1
0.2
+
+
+
+
1.3
2.5
7.5
3.7
–
–
–
–
1.2
1.8
3.9
1.1
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
11.2
14.0
21.3
18.4
+
+
+
+
+ 4.5
+10.4
+ 9.0
+ 8.8
0.2
0.4
3.2
1.8
0.8
0.5
2.2
0.1
1.4
2.2
0.2
1.3
3.3
2.4
1.5
2.3
Note: Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See Notes to tables for effects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
National Statistics
66
6.2
7.7
2.0
6.3
5.4
5.8
4.8
3.7
Population Trends 102
Table 9.1
Winter 2000
First marriages*: age and sex
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
All ages
England and Wales
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Per cent aged
under 20
Mean age
(years)
Median age
(years)
Year and quarter
Number
Rate†
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
253.0
222.8
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
44.6
37.0
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
6.0
3.4
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
63.5
42.2
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
104.3
77.5
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
73.7
64.6
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
30.9
29.5
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.1
5.4
4.8
4.8
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
3.8
2.1
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
26.3
27.5
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
25.1
26.5
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
224.2
213.5
206.1
198.2
193.3
187.4
186.3
36.8
34.7
33.1
31.2
29.8
28.3
27.5
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
2.2
39.0
34.2
30.5
27.2
24.3
21.9
30.3
76.4
72.3
69.1
64.0
60.0
56.2
77.4
64.0
59.9
56.9
54.9
53.9
52.3
49.0
31.2
30.7
30.4
30.3
30.5
29.7
23.2
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.4
5.4
4.3
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
27.9
28.2
28.5
28.9
29.3
29.6
29.8
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.9
28.3
28.6
28.9
1996 March
1996 June
1996 Sept
1996 Dec
22.9
56.1
83.9
30.4
14.2
34.8
51.5
18.7
1.4
1.8
2.4
1.5
13.0
28.3
41.3
14.5
25.5
71.4
108.9
34.0
25.2
61.9
92.5
35.7
16.5
34.7
47.5
23.0
3.5
6.3
7.2
4.5
1.9
1.0
0.9
1.6
29.4
29.2
29.0
29.7
28.3
28.2
28.2
28.7
1997 March
1997 June
1997 Sept
1997 Dec
21.8
53.2
82.7
30.5
13.3
32.2
49.5
18.3
1.4
1.7
2.2
1.5
11.8
24.4
38.0
13.3
23.8
64.8
103.1
33.4
23.5
59.8
91.4
34.9
15.5
33.8
47.4
22.6
3.5
6.1
7.3
4.8
2.0
1.0
0.9
1.6
29.7
29.6
29.3
30.1
28.6
28.6
28.5
29.0
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
21.0
52.3
81.8
31.3
12.6
31.0
47.9
18.3
1.4
1.6
2.2
1.6
10.7
22.0
34.7
13.2
22.1
62.3
100.2
32.5
22.9
59.2
90.3
35.8
14.7
31.8
45.8
23.1
3.4
6.3
7.0
5.0
2.1
1.0
0.9
1.7
30.0
29.9
29.6
30.4
28.9
28.9
28.7
29.4
1999 March‡
1999 June‡
1999 Sept‡
20.8
51.0
80.7
12.5
30.2
47.3
1.3
1.6
2.3
9.8
19.7
31.1
21.3
58.9
95.4
23.7
60.1
94.3
15.7
34.7
50.2
3.5
6.3
7.9
2.1
1.0
0.9
30.2
30.2
29.9
29.3
29.2
29.0
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
256.8
224.8
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
55.7
46.6
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
24.1
14.0
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
102.4
73.0
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
108.8
90.6
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
67.1
62.7
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
28.6
28.1
4.6
4.3
4.8
4.0
2.8
2.7
4.6
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.0
13.9
7.9
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
24.1
25.5
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
23.1
24.6
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
225.6
215.0
206.3
198.6
192.7
187.5
187.4
46.3
43.8
41.6
39.3
37.3
35.4
34.6
12.4
10.6
9.5
8.9
8.0
7.3
7.1
69.0
62.1
56.3
50.6
45.5
42.1
39.6
90.8
88.2
84.4
80.6
77.2
73.7
72.1
63.7
59.7
58.5
56.2
56.3
55.0
55.6
29.4
28.7
28.5
28.5
28.7
27.8
27.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
6.6
5.7
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.7
25.9
26.2
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.7
25.0
25.3
25.7
26.0
26.4
26.7
27.0
1996 March
1996 June
1996 Sept
1996 Dec
22.5
56.3
84.1
29.9
17.5
43.8
64.7
23.0
6.1
8.2
11.2
6.5
21.1
54.7
81.3
24.7
31.9
91.7
140.1
44.9
26.3
65.1
94.5
39.1
16.6
33.0
41.8
23.2
2.4
3.5
4.2
2.9
7.9
4.2
3.9
6.4
27.3
27.2
27.0
27.7
26.3
26.3
26.3
26.8
1997 March
1997 June
1997 Sept
1997 Dec
21.4
53.6
83.4
30.0
16.4
40.6
62.5
22.5
5.5
7.3
10.7
5.9
20.0
47.8
76.5
24.5
29.4
86.2
135.9
43.7
25.7
63.7
93.2
37.8
15.4
31.3
42.4
22.7
2.1
4.1
4.3
2.8
7.7
4.1
3.9
6.0
27.4
27.6
27.3
27.9
26.5
26.7
26.6
27.1
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
20.7
52.8
82.7
31.1
15.5
39.1
60.6
22.8
5.4
7.1
9.9
6.1
17.9
44.4
72.2
23.7
28.2
82.8
132.5
43.8
24.7
63.4
93.5
40.3
14.6
30.6
40.5
22.7
2.2
4.1
4.2
3.2
7.9
4.2
3.8
6.1
27.7
27.8
27.5
28.2
26.9
27.0
26.8
27.4
1999 March‡
1999 June‡
1999 Sept‡
20.6
51.4
81.7
15.4
38.1
59.8
5.0
6.8
9.2
16.9
40.3
66.9
27.9
80.6
130.7
25.5
65.5
98.5
16.0
33.0
45.0
2.4
3.6
4.8
7.4
4.1
3.5
28.0
28.0
27.8
27.2
27.3
27.1
* Figures for all marriages may be found in Table 2.1.
† Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
‡ Provisional.
67
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 9.2
Winter 2000
Remarriages*: age, sex, and previous marital status
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
England and Wales
Remarriages of divorced persons
Year and quarter
All ages
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population at ages
Remarriages of widowed
persons
Per cent
aged
under 35
Mean
age
(years)
Median
age
(years)
Number
Rate**
Number
Rate†
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
83.4
74.9
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
90.8
62.4
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
138.6
79.0
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
157.8
106.6
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
141.0
97.8
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
105.8
72.0
88.6
89.4
124.8
94.0
63.9
49.9
38.4
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
38.5
34.3
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
39.1
40.3
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
37.7
39.0
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
11.6
9.0
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
16.7
12.3
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
78.5
77.0
76.6
77.0
78.0
76.8
74.0
61.9
57.4
54.2
52.0
50.6
47.9
44.6
84.7
92.0
102.2
115.8
112.8
133.8
151.9
103.9
98.0
98.3
95.8
96.7
95.1
91.9
99.5
93.6
89.3
87.4
84.7
83.0
77.2
71.9
66.5
62.8
61.4
60.7
58.3
55.7
38.5
36.5
34.8
33.2
32.9
31.1
29.2
33.4
32.4
31.5
30.3
28.2
27.0
24.8
40.6
40.8
41.1
41.3
41.7
42.0
42.4
39.2
39.4
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.5
40.8
8.9
8.7
8.4
7.8
7.7
7.4
6.9
12.2
11.9
11.5
10.7
10.6
10.2
9.6
1996 March
1996 June
1996 Sept
1996 Dec
12.2
22.4
27.8
15.7
31.8
58.4
71.7
40.5
95.6
112.0
159.2
84.0
65.0
112.0
141.8
67.8
50.8
99.3
127.3
61.2
36.9
69.7
88.2
48.1
21.4
37.9
43.2
29.0
28.2
28.5
29.7
25.3
42.0
41.7
41.1
42.5
40.4
40.2
39.6
41.2
1.4
2.2
2.4
1.7
7.7
12.2
13.1
9.3
1997 March
1997 June
1997 Sept
1997 Dec
11.9
21.4
28.1
15.5
30.1
53.5
69.5
38.3
122.4
133.9
154.0
124.6
64.7
98.3
147.4
69.2
49.0
93.1
127.8
61.2
34.0
64.9
87.4
46.4
20.9
35.4
41.2
26.6
26.9
26.4
28.5
24.9
42.4
42.1
41.4
42.5
41.1
40.6
39.8
41.1
1.3
2.1
2.4
1.7
7.3
11.6
13.1
9.3
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
11.2
20.7
26.3
15.9
27.3
50.1
62.8
37.9
117.7
175.3
170.9
143.1
59.3
101.4
135.7
70.5
45.2
87.7
114.4
61.0
32.9
61.8
81.0
46.5
18.7
33.1
38.3
26.5
24.6
24.9
26.0
23.0
42.7
42.4
41.8
43.0
41.2
40.9
40.2
41.5
1.2
2.0
2.2
1.5
6.7
11.2
11.9
8.4
1999 March‡
1999 June‡
1999 Sept‡
10.5
20.1
26.4
25.7
48.6
63.1
111.5
120.1
152.8
53.7
87.8
116.3
41.4
79.7
111.8
30.2
61.6
81.6
18.3
32.9
40.2
23.9
22.9
24.4
43.1
42.8
42.3
41.6
41.3
40.7
1.1
2.0
2.0
6.4
11.0
11.0
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
80.0
73.4
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
68.7
50.3
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
190.6
111.9
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
156.2
118.1
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.7
89.7
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
75.5
55.3
35.6
37.8
49.3
40.9
29.0
24.4
20.9
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
51.2
47.4
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
36.0
37.1
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
34.7
35.7
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
11.2
8.6
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
3.8
2.9
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998‡
77.5
75.9
76.9
76.9
78.9
77.1
73.3
50.6
47.1
45.7
43.8
43.4
41.0
37.8
117.8
112.2
131.1
131.1
146.9
155.5
151.4
117.1
107.1
107.3
103.0
102.9
101.0
97.1
93.0
88.2
86.4
85.3
85.2
81.2
76.6
56.4
53.8
52.3
52.2
52.8
51.1
48.5
21.7
20.9
20.4
19.5
20.0
19.1
17.9
46.5
44.9
44.4
42.8
40.8
39.0
37.1
37.4
37.7
37.9
38.1
38.6
38.9
39.3
35.9
36.2
36.3
36.6
37.1
37.4
37.9
8.4
8.3
7.9
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.3
1996 March
1996 June
1996 Sept
1996 Dec
12.8
22.2
27.7
16.3
28.3
49.1
60.6
35.7
119.1
156.4
191.3
120.5
71.7
114.8
148.2
76.6
52.9
96.9
123.5
67.3
33.2
59.5
74.0
44.6
13.3
22.8
26.4
17.4
41.4
40.6
42.0
38.5
38.5
38.7
38.3
39.0
37.0
37.3
36.8
37.6
1.2
2.2
2.3
1.6
1.7
3.1
3.2
2.2
1997 March
1997 June
1997 Sept
1997 Dec
12.3
21.1
27.6
16.1
26.5
45.0
58.2
33.9
132.9
159.3
193.2
135.9
65.8
108.5
143.3
85.7
51.2
89.1
120.6
63.4
32.2
56.4
73.4
42.1
12.6
21.4
25.8
16.6
39.3
38.5
39.8
38.1
38.9
39.0
38.7
39.1
37.4
37.6
37.2
37.7
1.2
1.9
2.3
1.5
1.7
2.7
3.2
2.1
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
11.6
20.4
25.4
16.1
24.2
42.1
51.9
32.8
115.7
153.3
192.3
143.5
65.5
103.3
137.8
80.9
49.0
83.2
108.6
64.9
30.2
54.5
67.4
41.6
11.3
20.6
23.1
16.3
38.2
35.8
38.1
36.2
39.1
39.5
39.0
39.6
37.6
38.2
37.6
38.2
1.1
1.9
2.1
1.5
1.6
2.6
3.0
2.1
1999 March‡
1999 June‡
1999 Sept‡
10.9
19.9
25.5
22.8
41.2
52.1
113.8
136.0
168.3
58.4
89.9
115.0
43.9
81.3
105.4
29.0
54.7
71.7
11.1
20.5
24.1
36.5
34.3
34.9
39.5
39.8
39.5
38.1
38.4
38.2
1.0
1.8
2.0
1.5
2.6
2.8
* Figures for all marriages may be found in Table 2.1.
† Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
** Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
National Statistics
‡ Provisional.
68
Population Trends 102
Table 9.3
Year and
quarter
Winter 2000
Divorces: age and sex
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Petitions
filed*
Decrees made absolute
All
divorces
1st
marriage
England and Wales
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
2nd or
later
marriage
16 and over
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
Per cent
aged
45 and over
Mean age
at divorce
Median
age at
divorce
under 35
Numbers
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
49.7
..
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
128.0
129.8
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
25.9
29.0
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.5
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
30.9
25.4
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
31.2
31.0
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
25.1
27.8
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
18.0
20.0
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
5.2
5.6
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
45.6
42.7
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
37.8
38.6
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
36.2
37.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
160.4
165.0
158.2
155.5
157.1
146.7
145.2
144.6
130.5
133.5
127.5
125.1
125.8
117.3
116.0
115.1
29.8
31.5
30.7
30.4
31.3
29.4
29.2
29.4
13.8
14.3
13.8
13.6
13.9
13.0
13.0
12.9
26.2
29.5
30.2
30.9
32.2
30.4
30.4
26.2
31.2
32.3
31.2
31.6
33.2
31.4
32.2
28.4
28.7
30.0
29.1
29.0
29.6
28.3
28.3
27.3
20.9
22.1
21.5
21.4
21.9
20.9
21.3
21.8
5.9
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.3
41.7
40.8
39.7
38.7
37.5
35.9
34.3
32.1
38.8
39.0
39.3
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.4
40.9
37.2
37.3
37.6
37.9
38.1
38.4
38.7
39.2
1997 March
1997 June
1997 Sept
1997 Dec
..
..
..
..
34.9
39.6
37.2
35.0
28.0
31.6
29.7
27.9
6.8
8.0
7.5
7.1
12.6
14.1
13.1
12.4
29.4
34.1
29.6
28.4
30.1
34.5
31.4
29.5
27.5
30.7
28.3
26.7
20.0
22.6
21.3
19.7
5.9
6.5
6.1
5.9
36.0
36.2
35.6
35.7
40.1
40.1
40.2
40.3
38.4
38.4
38.4
38.5
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
..
..
..
..
37.0
36.6
37.1
34.4
29.7
29.2
29.7
27.5
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.0
13.4
13.1
13.2
12.2
34.9
30.5
29.3
27.1
33.8
32.9
32.9
29.1
29.2
28.7
28.6
26.6
22.0
21.5
21.6
20.1
6.3
6.2
6.2
5.8
34.6
34.5
34.2
33.8
40.3
40.4
40.4
40.5
38.6
38.7
38.8
38.8
1999 March‡
1999 June‡
1999 Sept‡
1999 Dec‡
..
..
..
..
36.4
35.7
36.6
35.8
28.9
28.3
29.2
28.6
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.2
13.2
12.8
13.0
12.7
27.5
25.5
26.2
25.5
30.5
28.2
28.2
26.7
28.4
26.7
27.3
26.9
22.0
21.5
22.2
21.6
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.2
33.1
31.9
31.8
31.7
40.7
40.9
40.9
40.9
39.1
39.2
39.3
39.3
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
130.7
..
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
128.8
130.9
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
25.1
27.8
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.4
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
30.7
28.7
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
28.6
30.7
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
22.0
25.0
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
15.8
17.3
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.5
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
55.0
52.7
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
35.3
36.0
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
33.6
34.3
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
160.4
165.0
158.2
155.5
157.1
146.7
145.2
144.6
131.6
134.9
128.9
126.0
126.9
118.3
116.8
115.4
28.7
30.2
29.3
29.5
30.2
28.4
28.5
29.1
13.7
14.2
13.7
13.5
13.8
13.0
12.9
12.9
29.5
32.3
31.8
33.2
34.4
31.9
32.9
27.8
31.3
33.3
32.2
32.3
33.9
32.3
32.8
29.6
26.1
27.1
26.8
26.7
27.6
26.4
26.8
26.3
18.1
19.2
18.5
18.8
19.2
18.5
18.8
19.5
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.1
4.9
4.9
5.2
51.9
51.3
50.2
48.8
47.7
45.9
44.3
41.7
36.3
36.4
36.7
37.0
37.3
37.7
37.9
38.4
34.5
34.7
34.9
35.3
35.6
36.0
36.3
36.9
1997 March
1997 June
1997 Sept
1997 Dec
..
..
..
..
34.9
39.6
37.2
35.0
28.3
32.0
29.9
28.1
6.5
7.7
7.3
6.9
12.5
14.0
13.0
12.3
31.3
35.7
31.2
29.5
31.2
35.3
32.8
29.9
25.4
28.7
26.6
25.0
17.7
20.0
18.6
17.5
4.8
5.2
4.9
4.8
45.9
46.2
45.9
45.3
37.6
37.6
37.6
37.8
36.0
35.9
36.0
36.1
1998 March
1998 June
1998 Sept
1998 Dec
..
..
..
..
37.0
36.6
37.1
34.4
29.8
29.4
29.8
27.7
7.3
7.2
7.3
6.7
13.4
13.1
13.1
12.1
36.2
32.6
32.4
30.4
34.1
33.4
33.3
30.3
27.9
27.3
27.1
25.0
19.5
19.0
19.0
17.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
4.7
44.8
44.5
44.1
43.7
37.8
37.9
37.9
38.0
36.2
36.3
36.3
36.5
1999 March‡
1999 June‡
1999 Sept‡
1999 Dec‡
..
..
..
..
36.4
35.7
36.6
35.8
29.0
28.4
29.3
28.6
7.4
7.2
7.3
7.2
13.1
12.7
12.9
12.6
29.3
27.7
27.7
26.2
31.2
29.3
29.7
28.0
27.1
26.1
26.1
25.9
19.6
19.0
20.0
19.5
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
42.6
41.9
41.4
41.0
38.3
38.5
38.4
38.5
36.7
36.9
36.9
37.0
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Note: The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971 – the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
Divorce petitions entered by year and quarter 1992–99, Numbers (thousands)
Year
1992
1993
1994
1995
March Qtr
48.8
49.6
46.2
46.7
June Qtr
45.5
43.4
43.1
41.7
Sept Qtr
48.3
47.5
44.9
45.3
Dec Qtr
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
46.8
44.1
42.0
40.3
1996
1997
1998
1999
45.3
35.5
42.9
41.3
44.3
43.5
40.0
40.4
45.1
43.9
41.9
40.8
43.3
40.8
40.1
40.3
‡ Provisional.
69
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Notes to tables
Changes to tables
With the introduction of Health Statistics
Quarterly, the previous Population Trends
tables have been reviewed and some small
changes introduced, in particular, a new table,
Table 2.2, showing key demographic and
health indicators for the constituent countries
of the United Kingdom.
For most tables, years start at 1971 and then
continue at five-year intervals until 1991.
Individual years are shown thereafter. If a year
is not present the data are not available.
Population
The estimated and projected populations of an
area include all those usually resident in the
area, whatever their nationality. Members of
HM forces stationed outside the United
Kingdom are excluded. Students are taken to
be resident at their term-time addresses.
Figures for the United Kingdom do not include
the population of the Channel Islands or the
Isle of Man.
The population estimated for mid-1991
onwards are final figures based on the 1991
Census of Population with allowance for
subsequent births, deaths and migration.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to
numbers occurring in a period; for Scotland
and Northern Ireland, figures relate to those
registered in a period. See also Note on page
63 of Population Trends 67.
Perinatal mortality
In October 1992 the legal definition of a
stillbirth was changed, from baby born dead
after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more,
to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of
gestation or more.
Expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are
based use current death rates to describe
mortality levels for each year. Each individual
year shown is based on a three-year period, so
that for instance 1986 represents 1985–87.
More details may be found in Population
Trends 60, page 23.
Deaths
Figures for England and Wales represent the
numbers of deaths registered in each year up to
1992, and the number of deaths occurring in
each year from 1993. Provisional figures are
registrations.
Figures for both Scotland and Northern Ireland
represent the number of deaths registered in
each year.
Age-standardised mortality
Directly age-standardised rates make
allowances for changes in the age structure of
the population. The age-standardised rate for a
National Statistics
70
particular condition is that which would have
occurred if the observed age-specific rates for
the condition had applied in a given standard
population. Table 2.2 uses the European
Standard Population. This is a hypothetical
population standard which is the same for both
males and females allowing standardised rates
to be compared for each sex, and between
males and females.
Migration
Figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are derived from the
International Passenger Survey (IPS), a sample
survey of all passengers travelling through
major air and seaports of the United Kingdom.
Routes to and from the Irish Republic are
excluded. Migration between the Channel
Islands or the Isle of Man and the rest of the
world was previously included in the total
migration to the United Kingdom. From 1988
this has been excluded.
It is highly likely that the IPS data also
exclude persons seeking asylum after entering
the country and short-term visitors granted
extensions of stay, for example as students or
on the basis of marriage. After taking account
of persons leaving the UK for a short-term
period who stayed overseas for periods longer
that originally intended, the adjustment needed
to net migration ranges from about 10
thousand in 1981 to 50 thousand in the latest
year available.
A migrant into the United Kingdom is defined
in these tables as a passenger entering the
United Kingdom with the declared intention of
residing here for at least a year having lived
abroad for at least a year; and vice versa for a
migrant from the United Kingdom.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and South Africa; New
Commonwealth is defined as all other
Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq,
Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates,
and Yemen.
Figures in Table 8.1 are based on the
movement of NHS doctors’ patients between
Family Health Services Authorities (FHSAs)
in England and Wales, and Area Health Boards
in Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Yearly and
quarterly figures have been adjusted to take
account of differences in recorded cross-border
flows between England and Wales, Scotland
and Northern Ireland.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at
Southport was computerised in early 1991,
prior to which a three month time lag was
assumed between a person moving and their
re-registration with an NHS doctor being
processed onto the NHSCR. Since
computerisation, estimates of internal
migration are based on the date of acceptance
of the new patient by the FHSA (not
previously available), and a one month time
lag assumed.
Marriages and divorces
Marriages are tabulated according to date of
solemnisation. Divorces are tabulated
according to date of decree absolute, and the
term ‘divorces’ includes decrees of nullity.
Government Office Regions
Figures refer to Government Office Regions
(GORs) of England which were adopted as the
primary classification for the presentation of
regional statistics from April 1997.
Health Regional Office areas
Figures refer to new health regions of England
which are as constituted on 1 April 1996.
Sources
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland
shown in these tables (or included in totals for
the United Kingdom or Great Britain) have
been provided by their respective General
Register Offices, except for the projections in
Table 1.2 which are provided by the
Government Actuary. The International
Passenger Survey (Tables 7.1–7.3) is conducted
by the Social Survey Division of ONS.
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently;
constituent parts may not add to totals.
Generally numbers and rates per 1,000
population are rounded to one decimal place
(e.g. 123.4); where appropriate, for small
figures (below 10.0), two decimal places are
given (e.g. 7.62). Figures which are
provisional or estimated are given in less detail
(e.g. 123 or 7.6 respectively) if their reliability
does not justify giving the standard amount of
detail. Where, for some other reason, figures
need to be treated with particular caution, an
explanation is given as a footnote.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may
be provisional (see note above on rounding)
and will be updated in future issues when later
information becomes available. Where figures
are not yet available, cells are left blank.
Population estimates and rates based on them
may be revised in the light of results from
future censuses of populations.
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Annual Update:
Conceptions in 1998 and
Births in 1999, England and
Wales
SUMMARY
This article summarises recent trends in birth
statistics in England and Wales. Particular attention is
given to the characteristics of births in 1999 and
conceptions in 1998. In particular the article
examines:
Figure 1
Total number of live births, England and Wales,
1838–1999
Number of live births (thousands)
1,200
1,000
●
●
●
●
●
Timing of childbearing;
Births by marital status;
Multiple births;
Fertility patterns within the UK;
Births and conceptions to women aged under 18.
800
600
INTRODUCTION
TIMING OF CHILDBEARING
The most noticeable change in fertility in the last 20 years has been a
shift towards later childbearing. The mean age of women at the birth of
1990
2000
1970
1980
1950
1960
1930
1940
1910
1920
1890
1900
0
1870
1880
There were 622 thousand live births in England and Wales in 1999, a
decrease of 2 per cent compared with 636 thousand in 1998. The
number of live births has fluctuated during the twentieth century with
very sharp peaks at the end of both world wars (Figure 1). Live births
peaked to near post war levels in the mid 1960s (876 thousand). The
number of live births in 1999 is the lowest since the late 1970s when it
fell to a low of 569 thousand in 1977.
200
1850
1860
NUMBER OF BIRTHS
400
1830
1840
This article describes recent trends in birth statistics in England and Wales.
It focuses on births occurring in 1999 and conceptions which occurred in
1998. More detailed information is available in the annual reference
volume on birth statistics. The most recent title in the series, Birth Statistics
1999 FM1 no. 28, was published in early December 2000.
a child has gradually increased in the last ten years from 27.3 years in
1989 to 29.0 in 1999. Fertility among women in their thirties and
early forties has risen while that of women in their twenties has fallen
(Figure 2). The highest fertility rates are still for women aged 25–29,
(at 99 births per thousand), but women are more likely to become
mothers in their early thirties than in their early twenties.
One useful summary of age-specific fertility rates is the total fertility
rate (TFR). It can be used to examine both changes in fertility over time
71
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Figure 2
Winter 2000
Age specific fertility rates, England and Wales,
1938–1999
Average number of liveborn children per woman
by age and year of birth of woman, England and
Wales 1924–1979
Table 1
Live births per 1,000 women in age-group*
200
Year of
birth of
woman
180
160
140
120
25–29
100
30–34
80
1924
1929
1934
1939
1944
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
Age of woman (completed years)
20
25
30
35
40
45*
0.14
0.19
0.20
0.26
0.34
0.35
0.33
0.24
0.20
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.85
0.90
1.04
1.22
1.24
1.09
0.93
0.82
0.71
0.69
0.62
1.48
1.61
1.88
1.98
1.88
1.67
1.54
1.43
1.30
1.23
1.87
2.05
2.28
2.27
2.11
1.96
1.88
1.81
1.70
2.07
2.23
2.41
2.35
2.20
2.06
2.00
1.95
2.11
2.26
2.42
2.36
2.21
2.08
2.02
20–24
60
* Includes births at ages 45 and over, achieved up to the end of 1999.
35–39
40
Under 20*
20
Table 2
40 and over*
Percentage of childless women by age and year of
birth of woman, England and Wales, 1924–1974
0
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
* Rates for women aged under 20 and 40 and over are based upon the population of
women aged 15–19 and 40–44 respectively.
and the variation in fertility across England and Wales. In 1999 the TFR for
England and Wales was 1.70 children per woman of child bearing age, the
second lowest since 1938 (the lowest was 1.66 in 1977). The TFR for the
whole of the UK fell to 1.69 in 1999, the same level as in 1977.
FAMILY SIZE
Changes in family size have a long term impact on the population
structure, and estimates of the average number of children which will
be born to women contribute to estimates of the size of the population
in the future. An average family size of 2.1 children per woman is
needed to maintain the population at its current size if mortality rates
are constant and there is no net migration. There are two ways to
estimate family size: cohort analysis; and period analysis using the total
fertility rate.
Cohort analysis compares the childbearing patterns of women born in
different years. This provides the average completed family size for women
born in successive years. However, this can only be calculated for women
who have reached the end of their childbearing years. The average
completed family size has decreased in the last 20 years (Table 1). Women
born in the late 1930s had the largest families, an average of 2.4 children
per woman. Those born in the early 1950s, who were in their late thirties
during the late 1970s, had fewer children, an average of 2.0 per woman.
Part of the decline in fertility could be caused by the increasing
proportion of women who do not have children (Table 2). Women born
in the late 1930s to early 1940s were the least likely to be childless
(10 per cent). These women would have been in their early twenties
National Statistics
72
Women
born in
1924
1929
1934
1939
1944
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
Age
25
35
45
Approx end
of
childbearing
45
45
39
35
34
40
48
55
60
61
64
18
17
12
12
12
15
20
23
27
29
30
16
15
11
11
10
13
17
19
22
23
23
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
Figures above the stepped line represent actual events which occurred up to the end of 1999.
Figures below the line incorporate projected births from 2000 onwards. Projected births
are calculated using the Government Actuary’s Department principal 1996-based projection.
during the 1960s baby boom. The proportion of childless women is
projected to increase to 23 per cent of women born in 1974.
There has also been a huge change in the age women first become mothers.
Nearly two thirds of women born in 1944 had given birth by the age of 25,
compared with just over a third of those born thirty years later in 1974.
The total fertility rate is sometimes used to estimate family size for
cohorts who have not yet completed childbearing. Used in this way it
may be interpreted as the number of children that would be born to a
woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout their
childbearing life. This is a hypothetical measure since fertility does
not normally remain stable during the childbearing life span of a
woman. Recently fertility rates have been increasing among older
women so the TFRs in the mid 1990s may underestimate the eventual
average number of children born to women of childbearing age in
England and Wales.
Population Trends 102
MARITAL STATUS
In 1999, 39 per cent of all live births were registered outside marriage.
The percentage of births outside marriage in 1999 was nearly four fold
that in 1979 (Figure 3). Women aged under 25 have the highest
percentage of births outside marriage; 89 per cent of births to teenagers
and 61 per cent of births to women aged 20–24 occurred outside
marriage. Of the births registered outside marriage, 62 per cent were
registered jointly by the parents living at the same address (Figure 4).
Figure 3
Percentage of live births outside marriage,
England and Wales, by age of mother: 1999
compared with 1979
Percentage of live births outside marriage
Winter 2000
Joint registration to parents living at the same address has gradually
increased in the last 10 years, whilst the level of births registered solely
by the mother and births registered jointly by parents living at different
addresses has remained the same.
MULTIPLE BIRTHS
In 1999 8,636 women gave birth to twins, 267 to triplets and 4 to
quadruplets or more babies. The overall multiple maternity rate in 1999
was 14.5 multiple maternities per 1,000 women giving birth, 27 per cent
higher than in 1989. Women in their thirties are more likely to have a
multiple birth than younger women (Figure 5). In 1989 unmarried women
aged 35 and over were more likely to have a multiple birth than married
women of the same age. Ten years later, married women had higher
multiple birth rates, with 1 in 46 maternities to women aged 35 and over
leading to twins, triplets or higher order births.
100
1979
90
Multiple maternity rates, 1989 and 1999, England
and Wales
Figure 5
1999
80
Rate per 1,000 maternities
70
25
60
50
20
40
30
15
20
10
10
0
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40+
All ages
5
Figure 4
Percentage of live births by type of registration,
England and Wales, 1989–1999
0
Percentage of all live births
<25
25-29
100
90
30-34
35 and over
Age group
All ages
Inside marriage, 1989
Outside marriage, 1989
Inside marriage, 1999
Outside marriage, 1999
80
70
60
Inside marriage
Within the UK, Northern Ireland had the highest TFR (1.87) in 1999
and Scotland the lowest (1.51) (Table 3). Northern Ireland had the
lowest proportion of births occuring outside marriage (30 per cent) and
Wales the highest (46 per cent).
50
40
30
20
10
0
FERTILITY PATTERNS WITHIN THE UK
Joint registration - parents living
at same address
Within England, the North East had the lowest TFR (1.62) and the West
Midlands the highest (1.79). Nearly half all live births to women living
in the North East occurred outside marriage compared with a third of
live births to mothers living in the South East or East regions.
Joint registration - parents living at different addresses
Sole registration
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
There was considerable variation in fertility in different age groups
across England and Wales in 1999. The North East and Wales had the
highest teenage birth rates (39.2 and 37.3 births per 1,000 women
73
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 3
Winter 2000
Total fertility rate, live birth rates (by age of mother), and percentage of births outside marriage, by area of usual
residence, 1999
Government Office Region
Total fertility rate
Age specific fertility rates**
1998
1999
all ages
<20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
Percentage of
births outside
marriage
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
1.66
1.73
1.75
1.69
1.80
1.70
1.77
1.70
1.68
1.62
1.71
1.74
1.67
1.79
1.67
1.75
1.67
1.65
52.6
56.7
57.1
55.6
59.4
57.4
62.2
57.2
55.1
39.2
35.1
36.9
31.6
34.4
25.0
28.4
23.7
24.7
81.2
84.2
83.9
76.0
88.7
74.2
56.8
64.4
68.7
98.2
99.9
108.7
101.8
107.6
92.9
95.6
92.3
100.3
72.7
82.8
79.8
83.6
84.3
92.6
102.1
97.0
90.1
28.8
34.0
31.7
34.2
35.5
42.0
53.4
46.6
38.5
4.9
6.3
6.4
6.2
7.2
7.7
13.4
9.2
7.5
49
46
42
40
39
34
35
34
37
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
1.72
1.79
1.54
1.91
1.69
1.74
1.51
1.87
57.6
56.6
50.8
63.5
30.4
37.3
30.0
28.9
73.1
84.7
60.7
70.8
98.8
106.3
90.4
112.6
89.6
80.8
81.3
105.8
40.2
32.2
34.2
46.8
8.1
6.6
6.2
9.4
39
46
41
30
** Rates for all ages, under 20 and 40 and over are per 1,000 women aged 15-44, 15-19 and 40-44 respectively.
aged 15–19). In England and Wales women aged 25–29 had the highest
birth rates, whereas within London and the South East, women are more
likely to give birth in their early thirties.
thousand conceptions to under 18s living in England and Wales. The
under 18 conception rate was 47.0 conceptions per thousand women
aged 15–17, two per cent higher than the rate in 1997 (45.9). Fifty eight
per cent of these conceptions led to a maternity.
CONCEPTIONS
BOX
The estimated number of conceptions in England and Wales in 1998
was 796 thousand, a 1 per cent decrease from 1997 (Table 4). Seventy
eight per cent of these conceptions led to a maternity. Women in their
late twenties had the highest conception rate (122.9 conceptions per
thousand women aged 25–29). Between 1997 and 1998 conception
rates increased for women aged over 30 and decreased for women in
their late twenties. Conceptions to women under 20 and over 40 are the
most likely to end in an abortion (38 per cent). Only 15 per cent of
conceptions to women in their early thirties lead to an abortion.
Conception statistics include pregnancies that result in
one or more live or still births, or a legal abortion
under the 1967 Act. Conception statistics do not
include miscarriages or illegal abortions. Dates of
conception are estimated using recorded gestation for
abortions and stillbirths, and assuming 38 weeks
gestation for live births.
BIRTHS AND CONCEPTIONS TO WOMEN AGED UNDER 18
Key findings
Following the publication of the Social Exclusion Unit Report1 on
teenage pregnancy, the Government set a goal to halve the rate of
conceptions among under 18 year olds in England by 2010. During the
last ten years the conception rate for women aged under 18 has
fluctuated from a high in 1990 (47.7 per thousand) to a low of 42 per
thousand in 1995 (Table 3). In 1998 there were an estimated 44
●
●
Table 4
Conceptions* in England and Wales by age of
women at conception and year of conception,
1988–1998
1988
1990
1995
1996
1997
●
1998
●
All ages
No. conceptions (000s)
Rate**
% leading to abortion
849.5
77.1
19.7
871.5
79.2
19.9
790.3
73.7
19.7
816.9
76.1
20.8
800.4
74.4
21.3
797.0
74.0
22.3
Under 16
No. conceptions (000s)
Rate**
% leading to abortion
8.3
8.8
53.4
8.1
9.5
50.8
8.1
8.6
47.6
8.9
9.5
49.2
8.3
8.9
49.7
8.5
9.0
52.4
Under 18
No. conceptions (000s)
Rate**
% leading to abortion
48.7
46.3
42.4
44.8
47.7
41.1
37.9
42.0
38.7
43.5
46.4
40.0
43.4
45.9
40.6
44.1
47.0
42.0
●
*
Conceptions leading to maternities or legal abortions - those which result in
spontaneous miscarriage are not included.
** Rates for all ages, under 16 and under 18 are per 1,000 women aged 15–44, 13–15 and
15–17 respectively.
National Statistics
74
There were 622 thousand births in England and
Wales in 1999, a 2 per cent decrease from 1998.
In 1999 the total fertility rate for England and
Wales was 1.70 children per woman of childbearing
age, the second lowest since 1938.
Women living in London and the South East are
most likely to have a baby in their early thirties.
Elsewhere in England and Wales, women aged 25–29
have the highest birth rates.
39 per cent of births in 1999 were registered
outside marriage, 62 per cent of these births were
registered jointly by parents living at the same
address.
In 1998 the under 18 conception rate in England
and Wales was 47.0 conceptions per thousand
women aged 15-17, two per cent higher than in
1997 (45.9 per thousand). Fifty eight per cent of
conceptions to under 18s in 1998 led to a
maternity.
NOTES
1
The Social Exclusion Unit. 1999. Teenage Pregnancy, London, The
Stationery Office.
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Report:
Mid-1999 Population
estimates
INTRODUCTION
Mid-1999 estimates of the resident population of England and Wales were
published on 24 August 2000 by ONS. The estimates are for local and
health authority areas in England and Wales. The total (all ages) estimates
were published in a reference volume Mid-1999 Population Estimates,
England and Wales (National Statistics Series PE no. 2).
Changes in the population age-structure mid-1991 to
mid-1999
Table A shows for various age-groups how the size of the United
Kingdom population has changed between mid-1991 and mid-1999.
The population has increased since 1991 with the biggest increases
being observed in three age-groups:
UNITED KINGDOM POPULATION ESTIMATES
●
National-level population estimates for England and Wales are
available slightly before the local and health authority estimates. This
year the national level estimates were published on 3 August at which
time the estimates for the United Kingdom and Great Britain were also
published. This report is mainly about the United Kingdom population
estimates for 1999.
●
Table A
●
The working population of age 30 and over;
Children aged 5–15, and;
The very elderly age-group of 85 and over.
The working population aged 30 and over has increased by 12.1 per
cent since 1991. This increase is partly due to the post-World War 2
baby-boom and to the high birth rates during the 1960s. The very
elderly age-group of 85 and over has increased by 27.3 per cent since
1991; this is due to increased life-expectancy.
Change in size of selected age-groups, mid-1991 to mid-1999
Numbers (thousands)
All ages
Children
Pre-school
Total
0–15
Adults
Working age*
School age
age
0–4
10–15
Total
16–64/59
5–9
16–29
30–44
11,742.5
12,110.0
12,113.9
3,887.5
3,670.7
3,624.6
3,674.1
3,913.7
3,906.6
4,180.8
4,525.6
4,582.7
35,469.3
36,396.6
36,633.7
12,357.6
10,849.8
10,733.5
371.4
3.2
-262.9
-6.8
232.5
6.3
401.9
9.6
1,164.4
3.3
-1,624.1
-13.1
Pensionable age**
45–64/59
Total
65/60+
65/60–74
75–84
85+
12,221.4
13,346.9
13,549.0
10,890.3
12,200.0
12,351.1
10,602.0
10,729.9
10,753.3
6,565.4
6,402.9
6,389.2
3,139.0
3,205.0
3,221.8
897.6
1,122.1
1,142.3
1,327.7
10.9
1,460.8
13.4
151.3
1.4
-176.2
-2.7
82.8
2.6
244.7
27.3
United Kingdom
Resident population (000s)
Mid-1991 r
57,813.8
Mid-1998
59,236.5
Mid-1999
59,500.9
Change 1991–99
Absolute (000s)
Percentage
1,687.1
2.9
* Males aged 16 to 64; females aged 16 to 59.
** Males aged 65 and over; females aged 60 and over.
r Revised estimate for Northern Ireland.
Note: Figures may not add exactly in this table because they have been rounded to the nearest hundred.
Source: Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
75
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table B
Mid-year
period
1998–99
Components of population change, mid-1991 to mid-1999
Numbers (thousands)
Resident
population
at start
of period
United Kingdom
1991–92 r
1997–98 r
Winter 2000
57,813.8
59,014.0
59,236.5
Components of change
Births*
Deaths*
793.3
718.2
710.8
638.9
618.0
634.8
Natural
change
Migration and
other changes
154.4
100.1
76.0
44.5
122.4
188.4
Resident
population
at end
of period
Total
change
198.9
222.6
264.4
58,012.7
59,236.5
59,500.9
* Figures as used in compilation of estimates, mid-year to mid-year.
r Revised estimate for Northern Ireland.
The components of change table for England and Wales is available on the Internet. For details of how to access this table see the section on ‘Availability of population estimates’.
Note: Figures may not add exactly in this table because they have been rounded to the nearest hundred.
Source: Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
In spite of the overall increase in the population, the size of some agegroups has decreased since 1991:
●
●
●
The working population aged 16–29 (a drop of 13.1per cent on
1991);
Children aged 0–4 (a drop of 6.8 per cent), and;
The early-retired age-group of 65/60 to 74 (a drop of 2.7 per
cent).
The decline since 1991 in the 16–29 age-group is mainly as a result of
low fertility rates during the 1970s. The decline since 1991 in the earlyretired age-group of 65/60 to 74 years old is mainly the result of low
birth rates during the 1930s.
Components of population change, mid-1991 to mid1999
Table B shows components of population change in the United
Kingdom between mid-1991 and mid-1999. Of the total increase
between mid-1991 and mid-1999, 76,000 is due to natural change
(more births than deaths). The remaining 188,400 is estimated to be
mainly due to people migrating to the United Kingdom, and this
includes people returning to the UK after a stay abroad of a year or
more.
Calculation of mid-year population estimates –
Methodology
The population estimates are based upon the 1991 Census with an
allowance for under-enumeration in the census. The methodology used
is the cohort component method which is to roll forward the previous
mid-year estimate, allowing for natural change due to births and deaths
during the past year, and adding on net migration. This methodology is
used to produce both national and sub-national population estimates,
but there are necessarily slight differences in the way the methodology
is applied at the sub-national level. The national level methodology is
described briefly here; a paper describing the methodology in greater
detail is available electronically on request from the Population
Estimates Unit (the contact address is given at the end of this text).
At the national level, the resident population base for the previous midyear is adjusted to remove foreign armed forces and their dependants
before the population is aged-on by one year. The foreign armed forces
and their dependants are a transient group which is estimated annually
outside of the ageing-on process. Using registration data, births and
deaths in the previous mid-year to mid-year period are allowed for
Table C
Sub-National population changes
Estimates of the sub-national population change are less precise than
those at the national level because of greater uncertainty about
migration. Table C shows the average annual population growth rate by
Government Office Region (GOR) in England and in Wales. Between
mid-1991 and mid-1999 the government regions which have shown the
highest rates of growth are those of London, South East, and the East of
England. One region has declined in size: North East GOR.
Definition of resident population
The estimated population of an area includes all people who usually
live there, whatever their nationality. Members of HM and US Armed
Forces in England and Wales are included on a residential basis
wherever possible. HM Forces stationed outside England and Wales are
not included. Students are taken to be resident at their term-time
address.
Average annual population growth rates by
Government Office Region mid-1981 to mid-1999
Area
Population Population Population
Average annual
at mid-1981 at mid-1991 at mid-1999 growth rates (per
(thousands) (thousands) (thousands) thousand population)
1981–91
1991–99
England and Wales
49,634.3
51,099.5
52,689.9
3
4
England
46,820.8
48,208.1
49,752.9
3
4
North East
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
2,636.2
6,940.3
4,918.4
2,602.5
6,885.4
4,982.8
2,581.3
6,880.5
5,047.0
-1
-1
1
-1
0
2
East Midlands
West Midlands
3,852.8
5,186.6
4,035.4
5,265.5
4,191.2
5,335.6
5
2
5
2
East
London
South East
South West
4,854.1
6,805.6
7,245.4
4,381.4
5,149.8
6,889.9
7,678.9
4,717.8
5,418.9
7,285.0
8,077.6
4,935.7
6
1
6
8
6
7
6
6
2,813.5
2,891.5
2,937.0
3
2
Wales
Note: Figures may not add exactly because they have been rounded to the nearest hundred.
National Statistics
76
Population Trends 102
directly. An estimate of migration is made using a combination of
surveys (which includes the International Passenger Survey) and proxy
data on migration. The proxy data in respect of movements within the
United Kingdom are based on re-registrations with general
practitioners. In addition, Home Office data are included in respect of
applications from asylum seekers, as well as applications for leave to
remain from people who originally entered the country as visitors.
●
●
●
AVAILABILITY OF POPULATION ESTIMATES
The Internet and StatBase®
The population estimates that are available on StatBase® can be
accessed via the Internet. Both data and “metadata” (information about
data) are contained within two linked systems. StatSearch contains
information about all the Government Statistical Service’s (GSS’s)
statistical resources. Within StatSearch the metadata are held under the
theme “Population and Migration”. StatStore contains a wide range of
GSS data including population estimates. Access to some datasets is
free, while others are chargeable. The GSS Website is at http://
www.statistics.gov.uk.
Published volumes
In addition to the population estimates shown in Tables 1.1 to 1.7 and
2.2 of Population Trends, some population estimates are given in other
ONS publications including Key Population and Vital Statistics, Social
Trends, Regional Trends, Annual Abstract of Statistics, and Health
Statistics Quarterly.
On disk
In addition, population estimates can be made available in machinereadable format on disk or CD-ROM, in more detail than the figures
supplied in published reports. These disks include breakdown of the
estimates by quinary age groups and sex. A charge is made for these
disks to cover costs.
●
●
●
Disk PE99(1) The population of the United Kingdom, England
and Wales (combined), England and Wales (separately), as at
30 June 1999 by sex and single year of age;
The population of England and Wales, England, Wales,
standard regions, Government Office Regions, counties, and
local authority districts/London boroughs as at 30 June 1999 by
sex and quinary age-groups;
A description of the methodology used to produce population
estimates.
Winter 2000
Disk PE99(2) The population of the United Kingdom, England
and Wales (combined), England and Wales (separately) as at 30
June 1999 by sex and single year of age;
The population of England and Wales, England, Wales, regional
offices and health authorities as at 30 June 1999 by sex and
quinary age-groups;
Disk PE99(3) The population of local and health authorities by
sex and quinary age-group for mid-1991 to mid-1998 on 1999
boundaries.
Further advice on these products, and requests for other population
estimates data should be made to:
Office for National Statistics
Population Estimates Unit
Room 2300
Segensworth Road
Titchfield
Fareham
Hampshire
PO15 5RR
Telephone: 01329 813281/813233 Fax: 01329 813295
E-mail: [email protected]
The General Register Office for Scotland and the Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency compile population estimates for
Scotland and Northern Ireland respectively. Requests for their subnational estimates and queries about the production of these estimates
should be addressed to GRO(S) and NISRA. The contact addresses are:
Customer Services
Population Statistics Branch
General Register Office for Scotland
Ladywell House
Edinburgh
EH12 7TF
Telephone: 0131 314 4254
E-mail: [email protected]
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
McAuley House
2–14 Castle Street
Belfast
BT1 1SA
028 9034 8132
77
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Winter 2000
Report:
Divorces in England and
Wales during 1999
This report provides provisional summary statistics of divorces granted
in England and Wales during 1999, and compares them with the
figures for previous years. Full details of divorces in 1999 will be
published in Summer 2001 in the annual volume Marriage, divorce
and adoption statistics 1999 (Series FM2 no.27).
Key observations
●
●
●
Just under 145 thousand divorces were granted in 1999, 0.5 per cent
fewer than in 1998 (Table 1); this was the third consecutive year
that the number of divorces has fallen. The divorce rate remained at
12.9 divorcing persons per 1,000 married population in 1999, the
lowest rate since 1989(Table 2).
In 1999, 163 thousand petitions were filed for divorce (dissolution
of marriage), nearly 2 per cent fewer than in 1998, and 9 per cent
fewer than in 1991 (Table 1).
Seven in every ten divorces are granted to the wife. However, the
proportion of divorces granted to the husband has risen slightly
during the 1990s (Figure 1) from just under 28 per cent in 1991 to
30 per cent in 1999.
●
Just over 79 thousand couples (55 per cent) divorcing in 1999 had at
least one child aged under 16, the same proportion as in 1998 compared with nearly 60 per cent all of couples in 1981 (Table 4).
●
The number of children aged under 16 of couples divorcing fell to
148 thousand in 1999 from 150 thousand in 1998, a decline of nearly
2 per cent (Table 4). Within this overall fall, the number of children
aged under 5 of couples divorcing in 1999 fell by almost 5 per cent,
whilst the number of children aged between 11 and 15 rose by 1 per
cent.
Figure 1
Divorces: to whom granted, 1989–1999
England and Wales
180,000
160,000
140,000
●
The mean age at divorce continues to rise: in 1999 it was 40.9 years
for men and 38.4 years for women (Table 2). Altogether there has
been a three year increase in the mean age at divorce since 1981,
corresponding to the increase in the mean age at marriage which has
occurred in recent years.
120,000
100,000
80,000
●
●
●
Over 40 per cent of men and women divorcing in 1999 were aged
between 30 and 39 at divorce (Table 2). However, divorce rates
were highest for those aged between 25 and 29 years: there were 28
divorces per 1,000 married men in this age group in 1999, whilst the
corresponding rate for women was 30.
Seventy per cent of all divorces in 1999 were between couples
where the marriage had been the first for both parties, a similar
proportion to that in 1998; this compares with 82 per cent in 1981
(Table 3).
The percentage of men and women divorcing in 1999 who were
bachelors or spinsters prior to marriage was just under 80 per cent
for both sexes (Table 3). Nearly one out of every five men and
women divorcing in 1999 were divorced prior to marriage,
compared with only one in ten men and women in 1981.
National Statistics
78
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Granted to wife
Granted to husband
Population Trends 102
Table 1
Winter 2000
Dissolutions and Annulments of Marriage, 1971, 1981, 1991, 1996–1999
England and Wales
1971
Petitions* filed for:
Nullity
Divorce (dissolution of marriage)
Decrees granted
Decree of nullity
Decree absolute
of which:
Granted to husband
Granted to wife
Granted to both
1981
1991
1996
1997
1998
1999
878
110,017
1,050
176,162
619
179,103
702
178,005
485
163,787
747
165,602
549
162,775
771
73,666
950
144,763
444
158,301
415
156,692
350
146,339
363
144,851
323
144,233
29,285
43,802
579
42,085
102,170
508
43,961
113,947
393
46,712
109,489
491
43,739
102,173
427
42,902
101,583
366
43,539
100,664
353
* Source: The Court Service.
Table 2
Age of person divorcing, 1981,1991,1998 and 1999
England and Wales
1981
1991
Husband
Wife
1998
Husband
1999*
Wife
Husband
Wife
Husband
Wife
Numbers divorcing
All ages
145,713
145,713
158,745
158,745
145,214
145,214
144,556
144,556
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
39
8,615
29,114
33,064
24,688
283
19,812
33,299
31,104
22,459
50
6,477
27,753
33,532
27,957
321
14,639
35,582
33,195
25,661
21
2,354
16,720
30,666
29,776
154
6,144
24,586
33,446
28,605
14
2,030
14,768
29,612
30,268
130
5,188
22,173
32,837
29,663
40–44
45–49
50–59
60 and over
18,187
12,767
13,774
5,440
15,276
9,902
9,805
3,748
25,199
16,896
15,408
5,454
21,979
13,607
10,543
3,199
22,740
17,785
19,255
5,889
20,521
14,783
13,677
3,290
23,584
17,521
20,576
6,174
21,325
14,924
14,841
3,466
Not known
25
25
19
19
8
8
9
9
37.7
35.2
38.6
36.0
40.4
37.9
40.9
38.4
Mean age at divorce (years)
Rate (divorces per thousand married men/women)
All ages
11.9
13.5
12.9
12.9
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
2.0
18.5
27.6
22.8
18.6
3.0
24.4
26.7
20.2
16.6
6.2
26.0
31.0
27.8
22.8
9.9
29.9
30.7
25.0
19.9
9.5
26.9
29.0
27.3
23.7
13.4
30.1
30.0
26.0
21.3
6.4
26.7
28.4
27.3
24.0
11.4
28.8
29.6
26.3
21.9
40–44
45–49
50–59
60 and over
15.2
11.0
5.8
1.7
12.9
8.7
4.3
1.4
17.6
13.6
7.1
1.6
15.0
10.9
5.1
1.2
18.9
13.8
8.3
1.7
16.4
11.2
6.0
1.2
19.5
14.2
8.6
1.8
17.0
11.7
6.3
1.2
* 1999 rates are provisional as they were produced using the 1998 population estimates by marital status; the 1999 estimates were not available at the time of compilation of these data.
79
National Statistics
Population Trends 102
Table 3
Winter 2000
Previous marital status of person divorcing*, 1981, 1991, 1998, 1999
England and Wales
Year of divorce
Males
Females
Total
Numbers
1981
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
1991
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
1998
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
1999
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
Spinsters
Percentages
Numbers
Divorced women
Percentages
Widows
Numbers
Percentages
Numbers
Percentages
145,713
100.0
127,685
87.6
15,853
10.9
2,175
1.5
127,564
16,220
1,929
87.5
11.1
1.3
118,750
8,378
557
81.5
5.7
0.4
7,997
7,096
760
5.5
4.9
0.5
817
746
612
0.6
0.5
0.4
158,745
100.0
130,897
82.5
26,226
16.5
1,622
1.0
129,784
27,554
1,407
81.8
17.4
0.9
117,323
13,295
370
73.9
8.4
0.2
12,035
13,487
704
7.6
8.5
0.4
517
772
333
0.3
0.5
0.2
145,214
100.0
116,756
80.4
27,231
18.8
1,227
0.8
115,972
28,120
1,122
79.9
19.4
0.8
102,677
13,745
334
70.7
9.5
0.2
12,899
13,746
586
8.9
9.5
0.4
396
629
202
0.3
0.4
0.1
144,556
100.0
115,426
79.8
27,917
19.3
1,213
0.8
115,108
28,274
1,174
79.6
19.6
0.8
101,548
13,534
344
70.2
9.4
0.2
13,136
14,138
643
9.1
9.8
0.4
424
602
187
0.3
0.4
0.1
* The term divorce here includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity.
Table 4
Children of couples divorced*, 1971, 1981, 1991, 1996–1999
England and Wales
Year of
divorce
Number of couples by number of children aged under 16
1
1971
1981
1991
1996
1997
1998
1999
2
17,223
34,576
35,663
33,501
31,339
30,967
30,745
14,998
36,765
37,388
36,715
33,996
34,207
33,550
3
4
6,400
11,699
11,816
12,514
11,482
11,523
11,238
3,018
2,775
3,288
3,018
2,980
2,953
Number of children aged under 16 by age-group
5 or more
3,418
780
704
915
835
799
812
Total
0–4
42,039
86,838
88,346
86,933
80,670
80,476
79,298
20,734
40,281
52,738
46,029
41,524
39,538
37,706
5–10
11–15
Total
40,700
67,582
68,074
71,620
67,085
67,545
66,442
20,870
51,540
39,872
44,849
41,700
43,046
43,573
82,304
159,403
160,684
162,498
150,309
150,129
147,721
* The term divorce here includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity.
Note: Children are children of the family, and will include adopted and step children who are part of the family; ages are those at petition for divorce.
EXPLANATORY NOTES:
Decrees absolute and decrees of nullity
A marriage is either dissolved, following a petition for divorce and the
granting of a decree absolute, or annulled following a petition for
nullity and the awarding of a decree of nullity. In this report the term
divorce includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity, although
(strictly speaking) it should refer only to dissolutions.
Children of divorcing couples
Table 4 shows children of divorcing couples. It is important to note
that the term here refers to children of the family as defined by the
Matrimonial Causes Act 1973 (Section 52). As well as children born to
National Statistics
80
the divorcing couple, this includes children born outside marriage,
children of previous marriages, and adopted children, provided that
they were treated by both partners as children of their family. Children
are analysed by age at petition not divorce.
All rates are provisional as they were produced using the 1998
population estimates by marital status; the 1999 estimates were not
available at the time of compilation of these data.
Other population and health articles, publications and data
Health Statistics Quarterly 09
Population Trends 103
Publication 22 February 2001
Publication 22 March 2001
Planned
articles:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Annual update:
•
Estimating daily deaths by
date of occurrence
An analysis of legal
uncertified deaths 1979–99
Trends in mortality and
hospital admissions from atrial
fibrillation
Daily and seasonal variations in
live births, stillbirths and infant
mortality
Social and economic variations in
general practice consultation
rates amongst men aged 16–39:
secondary analysis of the fourth
national survey of morbidity
Geographic inequalities in life
expectancy in the United
Kingdom, 1995–97
Planned
articles:
●
●
●
●
Reports:
●
●
Cohabitation in Great Britain:
past present and future trends
Population trends in the 21st
century
The proportion of adoptees
who have received their birth
records: a detailed analysis
Teenage births ethnic minority
women
Marriages in England and
Wales, 1999
Conceptions in England and
Wales, 1999
1999 Mortality statistics: Cause
(England and Wales)
Forthcoming Annual Reference Volumes
Title
Congential anomaly statistics, 1999, MB3 no.14
Birth Statistics, 1999, FM1 no.28
Mortality statistics: cause, 1999, DH2 no.26
Vital Statistics data – annual data for each Health
and Local Authority in England and Wales
Publication
December 2000
December 2000
December 2000
VS1 Births and deaths summary data:
Population, births and deaths, fertility and mortality rates, comparisons with
the region, and with England and Wales.
VS2 Births:
Births by age of mother, number of previous children, place of confinement
and birthweight.
VS3 Deaths by cause:
Deaths by cause, sex and age.
VS4 Vital Statistics for wards:
Live births, stillbirths and deaths (by age).
VS4D Deaths for wards:
Deaths for wards in local authorities by 12 selected causes.
VS5 Infant mortality:
Live births, stillbirths and infant deaths. Numbers and rates.
Live births and stillbirths by birthweight.
Stillbirths by gestation period.
How to order:
Most Vital Statistics data are available on paper, disk and CD-ROM for each
year 1993–98. Prices range from £30 to £40. To order contact:
Vital Statistics Outputs Branch
Room 1300
Office for National Statistics
Segensworth Road
Titchfield
Hampshire PO15 5RR
Tel: 01329 813758
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