W i n t e r 1 9 9 7
90
trends
Population
In this issue
Population review of 1996: England and Wales
This outlines the main features of the population of England and Wales in 1996
Olivia Christophersen
1
In brief
One number Census? Young teenagers and alcohol in 1996, Drugs related deaths in
Scotland, Health in Wales, Battle of the sexes, A new home for infectious diseases
7
Recent ONS publications
9
Updates and demographic indicators
10
Mortality during the 1996/7 winter
Quantifies the excess mortality during 1996/97 winter and explores the relationship between
excess winter mortality, temperature and influenza
Olivia Christophersen
11
Latest population projections for the European Union
Presents the latest Eurostat projections for EU member countries for the period 1995-2050
Chris Shaw, Harri Cruijsen, Joop de Beer and Andries de Jong
18
1991 population estimates for areas smaller than districts
Describes the method used to construct population estimates for electoral wards in England
and postal sectors in Scotland, consistent with the estimates for larger areas, using data from
1991 Census
Stephen Simpson, Rachel Cossey and Ian Diamond
31
Incidence of Health of the Nation cancers by social class
Uses data from the ONS Longitudinal Study to report on the incidence of certain cancers
from 1976-89
Joanna Brown, Seeromanie Harding, Ann Bethune and Michael Rosato
40
Tables
List of tables
Tables 1-24
Notes to tables
49
50
76
Index to articles 1995–1997
78
Contact points at ONS
80
London: The Stationery Office
A publication of
the Government
Statistical Service
© Crown copyright 1997. Published with the permission of the Office for
National Statistics on behalf of the Controller of HMSO.
ISBN 0 11 620903 8
ISSN 0307-4436
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i ntmte eer rr 111 999 999 777
im
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TT rrr eee nnn ddd sss
PPP ooo ppp uuu lll aaa ttt iii ooo nnn T
Editorial
Population review of 1996:
England and Wales
Olivia Christophersen
Demography and Health, ONS
This article outlines the main features of the
population of England and Wales in 1996. Where
1996 figures have not yet been produced, data for
the latest available year are given.
HIGHLIGHTS
•
There were 649 thousand live births in England and Wales in 1996,
about one thousand more than in 1995.
•
The mean age of mother at childbirth continued to increase,
reaching 28.6 years in 1996.
•
The number of abortions to women resident in England and Wales
rose by 9 per cent to 168 thousand. This was the first increase
since 1990.
•
There were 563 thousand deaths registered in England and Wales,
a fall of three thousand compared with 1995.
•
In 1995 there were 283 thousand marriages, eight thousand fewer
than in 1994.
•
The number of divorces fell for the third consecutive year reaching
154 thousand in 1996.
T OTA L P O P U L AT I O N
The mid-1996 resident population of England and Wales was
estimated to be 52.0 million. This was an increase of 190 thousand
(0.4 per cent) since mid-1995. Of the total increase between 1995
and 1996, 71 thousand was due to natural change (the excess of
births over deaths) and 119 thousand to migration and other
changes. This was the fourth consecutive year that the natural
increase declined and net migration and other changes increased.
(Figure 1)
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
1
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 1
250
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Population change and its components, 1972–73 to 1995–96, England and Wales
Total change in population
Thousands
200
150
100
Increase
Increase
50
0
-50
Thousands
150
Decrease
Natural change
100
Natural increase
50
0
Natural
decrease
150
Net migration (and other changes)
Thousands
100
50
Net inflow
0
-50
Net outflow
-100
1972/73
77/78
82/83
The age structure of the population continues to change as a result
of variation in the number of births and in net migration and
increases in life expectancy (Table A and Figure 2). For example,
the number of people aged 30-44 increased by 625 thousand (5.8
per cent) between 1991 and 1996 as the people born during the
1960s baby boom entered this age group while the number of 1629 year olds declined by 1,082 thousand (9.9 per cent) reflecting
the decline in fertility which took place in the 1970s. Similarly,
since 1994 there has been an increase in the population aged 75-84
and a decrease in the population aged 60/65-74 which can be
attributed to the baby boom which followed World War I and the
subsequent period of low fertility in the 1930s. The number of
people aged 85 years and over increased by 160 thousand (19.8 per
cent) between 1991 and 1996, largely due to improvements in life
expectancy.
Year
87/88
92/93
95/96
P O P U L AT I O N P R O J E C T I O N S
The population of England and Wales is projected to increase
slowly from 51.6 million in 1994 to 54.4 million in 2024 when it
will start to decline. The age structure will change significantly
over the next 40 years. The number of children under 16 will
increase slightly until 2000 before declining, while the population
over pensionable age is expected to increase by over 50 per cent
between 1994 and 2034. The dependency ratio (the ratio of the sum
of the population aged under 16 and over pensionable age to the
population of working age) will remain close to the present level of
0.64 for the next 20 years and will then increase rapidly, reaching
0.80 by 2034, as people born in the ‘baby boom’ reach pensionable
age.
B I RT H S
Local change
Table B shows the population change between 1991 and 1996 for
the government office regions of England and for Wales. It should
be noted that estimates of subnational change from year to year are
less precise than those at a national level because of greater
uncertainty about migration. The only government office regions to
experience a decrease in population between 1991 and 1996 were
Merseyside and the North East. The South East, London, Eastern,
South West and East Midlands government office regions showed
the greatest population increase during this period.
2
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
There were 649 thousand live births in 1996, about one thousand
(0.2 per cent) more than in 1995. This was the first increase in the
annual number of births since 1990. The total period fertility rate
(the average total number of children that would be born per
woman if current age-specific fertility rates continued) also rose
slightly from 1.72 in 1995 to 1.73 in 1996.
Age-specific fertility rates increased for all age groups between
1995 and 1996 except for women aged 25-29 years. Over the last
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Figure 2
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
fifteen years, fertility rates have declined steadily among women
under 30 and increased for women aged 30 years and over (Figure
3). Consequently the mean age of mother at childbirth has
increased over the same period, reaching 28.6 years in 1996
compared with 28.5 years in 1995 and a low of 26.1 years in the
early 1970s. The percentage of births outside marriage increased
from 34 per cent in 1995 to 36 per cent in 1996.
Profile of the estimated population of England and
Wales by age and sex, mid–1996
100
90
80
CONCEPTIONS
70
Conceptions statistics are calculated using birth registrations and
abortions registered under the Abortion Act 1967. There were an
estimated 790 thousand conceptions in 1995 which led to
maternities or legal abortions in either 1995 or 1996. This is a fall
of 11 thousand (1.4 per cent) compared with 1994 and 9 per cent
lower than the peak in 1990. The underage conception rate rose by
2 per cent to 8.5 conceptions per thousand girls aged 13-15,
compared with 8.3 in 1994.
Age
60
50
Males
Females
40
30
20
A B O RT I O N S
10
In 1996 there were 168 thousand legal abortions to women resident
in England and Wales, an increase of 14 thousand (8.8 per cent)
compared with 1995 (Figure 4). This was the first increase in the
number of abortions since 1990. The abortion rate rose from 12.0
per 1000 women aged 14-49 in 1995 to 13.0 in 1996. There were
0
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0
100 200
Number (thousands)
Table A
300
400
500
Change in size of selected age-groups, mid-1991 to mid-1996, England and Wales
thousands
Year
Mid-1991
Mid-1992
Mid-1993
Mid-1994
Mid-1995
Mid-1996
Table B
All Ages
51,100
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
Children
Adults
Pre-school
age
School age
0-4
5-9
3,431
3,455
3,434
3,423
3,388
3,325
3,223
3,259
3,316
3,369
3,401
3,447
Working age
10-15
3,650
3,694
3,765
3,826
3,864
3,883
Pensionable age
16-29
30-44
10,892
10,674
10,412
10,153
9,963
9,810
10,818
10,806
10,886
11,050
11,237
11,443
45-59/64
9,641
9,923
10,147
10,327
10,476
10,598
All pensionable
ages
60/65-74
9,446
9,467
9,480
9,473
9,491
9,505
5,826
5,843
5,885
5,914
5,808
5,736
75-84
85+
2,810
2,777
2,704
2,642
2,734
2,800
810
840
891
917
948
970
Estimated mid-year resident population by Government Office Regions, 1991 to 1996, England and Wales
Area
Mid-year population (thousands)
Change 1991-96
Components of change 1991-96
1991
1995
1996
Thousands
Percentage
Natural
Change
Migration and
other changes
England and Wales
51100
51820
52010
910.6
1.8
523.6
387.1
England
48208
48903
49089
881.0
1.8
515.8
365.2
North East
North West (GOR) and Merseyside
North West (GOR)
Merseyside
Yorkshire and Humberside (GOR)
2603
6885
5436
1450
4983
2605
6900
5473
1427
5030
2601
6891
5471
1420
5036
-2.0
5.9
35.2
-29.2
52.7
-0.2
0.1
0.6
-2.0
1.1
6.4
41.5
38.1
3.4
43.5
-8.5
-35.5
-2.9
-32.6
9.2
East Midlands
West Midlands
4035
5266
4124
5306
4142
5317
106.1
51.1
2.6
1.0
37.3
63.2
68.7
-12.1
Eastern
London
South East (GOR)
South West
5150
6890
7679
4718
5257
7007
7847
4827
5293
7074
7895
4842
142.8
184.3
216.4
123.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.6
65.8
187.9
71.7
-1.6
77
-3.6
144.7
125.3
Wales
2892
2917
2921
29.6
1.0
7.8
21.8
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
3
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
10 thousand abortions to non-residents in 1996, an increase of 2.7
per cent compared with 1995. This reversed the downward trend in
abortions to non-residents which began in 1984.
M O R TA L I T Y
In 1996 some 563 thousand deaths were registered in England and
Wales, a fall of nearly three thousand (0.5 per cent) compared with
1995. Between 1995 and 1996 male deaths decreased by 1.1 per
cent while the number of female deaths remained the same. In 1995
life expectancy at birth was 74.2 years for men and 79.6 years for
women.
M A R R I AG E
There were 283 thousand marriages in 1995, 8 thousand (2.7 per
cent) fewer than 1994 (Figure 7). Apart from a slight increase in
1992, the number of marriages has declined each year since 1987.
The average ages at first marriage and at remarriage have been
increasing steadily over the last 15 years and continued to rise in
1995. Based on provisional 1995 data, average age at first marriage
was 28.9 years for bachelors and 26.9 years for spinsters compared
with 28.5 years and 26.5 years respectively in 1994. The average
age at remarriage for divorced men and women was 41.3 years and
38.4 years respectively in 1995 compared with 41.1 years and 37.9
years in 1994.
There has been a long-term decline in the age-specific mortality
rates for men and women in all age groups with the exception of
men aged 15-44 years (Figure 5). The reduction is particularly
marked for the 1-14 and 45-64 year olds.
Figure 6 shows the proportion of deaths by age in 1981 and 1996
due to selected major causes. The broad pattern has remained
similar over this period although there have been some notable
changes. For example, there has been an increase in the proportion
of deaths due to infectious and parasitic diseases in younger age
groups. This partly reflects a decline in deaths from other major
causes together with an increase in meningococcal infection among
1-14 year olds, and in HIV infection among 15-44 year olds. There
has also been an increase in the proportion of deaths due to cancer
in men and women over 45.
The infant mortality rate fell from 6.1 per thousand live births in
1995 to 6.0 in 1996, the lowest rate ever recorded in England and
Wales. The perinatal mortality rate (stillbirths and deaths under 7
days per thousand live and still births) also fell in 1996, from 8.8 in
1995 to 8.6. There were 3.5 thousand stillbirths (babies born dead
after 24 or more completed weeks gestation) in England and Wales
in 1996.
Figure 3
Relative change in age-specific fertility rates, England
and Wales (1981=100)
180
35–39
Figure 4
Number of abortions to residents and non-residents,
England and Wales, 1981–1996
200
Total
160
Residents
Abortions (thousands)
P o p u l a t i o n
120
80
40
Non-residents
0
1981
83
Figure 5
40 and
over
140
87
89
Year
91
93
95 96
Relative change in age-specific mortality rates by sex,
England and Wales (1981 = 100)
115
Males
110
160
85
Females
105
100
30–34
120
95
90
100
Under 20
85
80
80
25–29
75
20–24
70
60
65
40
60
0
20
81
19
0
1981
4
83
85
O f f i c e
87
f o r
89
Year
91
93
N a t i o n a l
95 96
S t a t i s t i c s
83
85
87
89
91
93
95 96
1–14
45–64
15–44
65–74
81
83
85
87
75–84
89
91
93
95 96
85+
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Men, 1996
100
100
80
80
Cumulative percentages
Cumulative percentages
Men, 1981
60
40
60
40
20
20
0
0
1–14
15–44
45–64
65–74
75–84
1–14
85+
15–44
65–74
75–84
85+
75–84
85+
Women, 1996
Women, 1981
100
100
80
80
Cumulative percentages
Cumulative percentages
45–64
Age-group
Age-group
60
40
60
40
20
20
0
0
1–14
15–44
45–64
65–74
75–84
1–14
85+
15–44
Infectious and
parasitic diseases
Figure 7
45–64
65–74
Age-group
Age-group
Malignant
neoplasms
Ischaemic heart
disease
Cerebrovascular
disease
Respiratory
diseases
Injury and
poisoning
Other
D I VO R C E
Number of marriages, England and Wales,1981–95
The number of divorces in England and Wales fell for the third
year running to 154 thousand in 1996 (Figure 8). This was 1 per
cent lower than 1995 when there were 155 thousand divorces. The
mean age at divorce for males and females fell in 1996 for the first
time in over ten years. Based on provisional 1996 data, the average
age at divorce was 37.4 years for males and 35.5 years for females,
compared with 39.6 years and 37.0 years respectively in 1995.
360
340
Marriages (thousands)
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Causes of death by sex and age, England and Wales, 1981 and 1996
Figure 6
1.
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
320
ADOPTIONS
300
There were 5,700 adoptions in 1996, 1 per cent fewer than in 1995
(Figure 9). The number of children adopted each year has been
declining since the peak of 25 thousand in 1968.
280
0
1981
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
Year
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
5
P o p u l a t i o n
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Number of divorces, England and Wales,1981–96
Figure 8
Figure 9
360
12
170
10
Adoptions (thousands)
Divorces (thousands)
T r e n d s
160
150
140
Number of adoptions, England and Wales,1981–96
8
6
4
2
130
0
0
1981
83
85
87
89
91
93
1981
95 96
83
85
87
89
91
93
95 96
Year
Year
Sources
4.
Total population
Mid-1996 population estimates for England and Wales.
Population and Health Monitor PP1 97/1
Population Projections
National population projections: 1994-based Population and
Health Monitor PP2 96/1
Births
Live births in England and Wales, 1996: local and health
authority areas, Population and Health Monitor FM1 97/1
1.
2.
3.
6
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
5.
6.
7.
S t a t i s t i c s
Conceptions
Conceptions in England and Wales, 1995, Population and
Health Monitor FM1 97/2
Abortions
Abortion Statistics 1996 Series AB No. 23
Mortality
Deaths registered in 1996 by cause, and by area of residence
Population and Health Monitor DH2 97/1
Infant and Perinatal Mortality
Infant and perinatal mortality 1996: Health authorities and
regional offices Population and Health Monitor DH3 97/1
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
in brief
One number Census?
The most important source of error in the 1991 Census was the relatively high
level of under-enumeration. As a result, the Census Offices have put reducing
under-enumeration, and its differential nature, as top priority in the 2001
Census research programme.
The 1997 Census test provided an
opportunity to try out new ideas on delivering
and collecting census forms, so that
enumerator resource could be concentrated
on difficult areas. The census form was also
redesigned to try to make it easier for
households to complete for those households
most susceptible to under-enumeration.
national census-based estimate, and compared
with the population estimate rolled forward
during the previous decade (the demographic
estimate.) The proposed strategy is that if the
2001 census-based estimate comes within an
agreed range of plausible values, then the
census count should be accepted. If not, then
the demographic estimate will be believed.
Despite such efforts, it is inevitable that some
people will be missed. The One Number
Census (ONC) is concerned with measuring
the level of under-enumeration in the 2001
Census.
Stages 3 and 4 The production of adjusted
census counts for small areas, say wards, and
ultimately to adjust, at the micro level the
census output database, represent the final
goals of the ONC process. Models developed
from information collected in the CCS for
very small areas (postcodes) would be used to
estimate the number of people missed in both
enumerated households and wholly missed
households, for each postcode. The precise
method for creating individual records and
allocating them to household units has not yet
been developed.
The aim of the ONC project is to adjust the
census for under-enumeration so that the
census, the estimated under-count and
rebased population estimates are integrated to
give ‘one number’. The methodological work is
being carried out by a joint ONS/Academic
team, under the direction of Professor Ian
Diamond from the University of Southampton.
The work is at a development stage and may
well change, but the current thinking involves
four stages, namely:
Stages 1 and 2 The first two stages involve
producing the best estimate of the population,
cross-analysed by age and sex, at national and
county levels. Counts from the 2001 Census
would be adjusted at county level for
estimated net under-enumeration using a
Census Coverage Survey (CCS) and
administrative records. The county level
estimates would be aggregated to produce a
A consultation paper will be issued in early
1998 to all interested parties. This paper will
describe the ONC methodology, as currently
envisaged, including some indication on the
timing of the 2001 Census outputs, and the
marketing strategy for census products as far
as will be know at that stage. Comments from
users will be welcomed up to the end of April
1998. Those wishing to have a copy of the
paper should contact: Ian White, Census
Division, Room 4300E, ONS, Segensworth
Road, Titchfield, Hants, PO15 5RR (telephone
01328 813587 or fax 01329 813532.)
O f f i c e
f o r
Young teenagers
and alcohol in
1996
Young teenagers who drink alcohol are
drinking more than they were at the beginning
of the decade, according to survey findings
published by ONS in October. The research
was carried out among secondary school
children aged 11-15 in England and 12-15 in
Scotland. The increase in alcohol consumption
among this age group has been fairly steady,
and has occurred to a similar degree among
both boys and girls.
The survey found that those who drank were
drinking more frequently. In England, the
proportion who drank in the week before the
survey was carried our rose from 21 per cent
in 1990 to 27 per cent in 1996. In Scotland it
rose from 14 per cent to 23 per cent over the
same period. Although the proportion of
pupils who drank alcohol in the week before
the survey was lower than in England, in
Scotland, those who did drink drank more. The
average number of units of alcohol a week
drunk by children of this age (based on all
children, not just those who had drunk alcohol
in the previous week) more than doubled over
the period from 0.8 units in 1990 in both
England and Scotland to 1.8 units in England,
and 1.9 units in Scotland, in 1996.
The average consumption figures conceal wide
variations in the amounts children of this age
drink. The overwhelming majority had drunk
little or nothing in the previous seven days,
and most of the remainder had drunk only
modest amounts. However, at the other end of
the scale, five per cent of boys and three per
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
cent of girls, in both countries, had drunk 15
or more units in the previous week.
The survey results are published in separate
volumes for England and Scotland. For
publication details (and details of the related
reports on Smoking among secondary school
children in 1996) see page 9.
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
II). The level for middle-aged men in Social
Class V is slightly higher than for men past
retirement age in Social Classes I and II.
A new home for
infectious diseases
The report is available on request from: Alan
Jackson, HSA4, Statistical Directorate, Welsh
Office, Cathays Park, Cardiff , CF1 3NQ,
telephone: 01222 825033.
From April 1997 the work on, and publication
of, statistics on infectious diseases in England
and Wales was transferred from the Office for
National Statistics to the Communicable
Disease Surveillance Centre of the Public
Health Laboratory Service. Dr Mike Catchpole
continues to have responsibility.
Drug related
Battle of the
deaths in Scotland sexes
Readers may also be interested in a paper
giving the number of drug related deaths in
Scotland in 1996 which was published on 5
September by the Registrar General for
Scotland. The paper is entitled Drug related
Deaths in Scotland in 1996 and copies or
further information about the paper are
available from the General Register Office for
Scotland, telephone 0131 314 4243.
Health in Wales
A report entitled Social Class and Health has
been prepared by the Welsh Office Health
Statistics and Analysis Unit, based on Welsh
Health Survey data.
The Welsh Health Survey 1995 was a postal
survey designed to provide a picture of the
health of the people of Wales, the way the
NHS is used and area where services could be
improved. The report gives the results of a
series of analyses of the survey data relating
social class to a range of health-related issues.
Social class is defined using six standard
groups based on the work people do.
The report shows that people who do
unskilled manual work (Social Class V) have
higher than average levels of most physical and
mental illnesses and have very unhealthy
lifestyles. People who do skilled or partly
skilled manual work (Social Classes IV and IIIM
have higher than average levels of some
physical illnesses and have unhealthy lifestyles.
People in professional occupations (Social
Class I) have lower than average levels of
some illnesses, have healthy lifestyles, and use
GP and hospital services less.
As an illustration of the differences found
between the occupational groups, the level of
‘limiting long-term illness’ for young men in
Social Class V is the same as for middle aged
men in Social Class I (and not much different
from that of middle-aged men in Social Class
8
O f f i c e
f o r
Boys have outnumbered girls at birth since
records began in 1838. Over the period 199496, there were around 105 boys born for
every 100 girls. A breakdown of these data by
social class of father (as defined by father’s
occupation) shows that boys outstrip girls
regardless of occupation: sex ratios ranged
from 103 to 107 boys per 100 girls in each of
the social class groups (see Figure A).
A magazine article published in July suggested
that professional couples were more prone to
have a baby boy than the general population,
and were lacking baby girls. In fact, ONS birth
statistics for 1994-96, based on a 10 per cent
sample of records, show that professional
couples gave birth to more girls than boys
than any other social class. Those in social
class IIIN - such as clerks and sales reps were also well endowed with girls. Social Class
II - which includes business proprietors and
works managers - had the highest ratio of
boys to girls.
The monitoring of infectious diseases started
just over 100 years ago in 1895. The statistics,
originally published in the Registrar General’s
Weekly Return, gave the number of cases of
scarlet fever, diphtheria and enteric fever,
under treatment during the week, in the
Metropolitan Asylum and London Fever
Hospitals, together with a return from the
Highgate Smallpox Hospital. The series was
expanded in 1901 to include other diseases
such as typhus and cholera, and to cover
certain large towns.
National coverage dates back to 1922 and is
based on returns sent to the Registrar
General by medical officers of health (now
environmental health) who keep a record of
all cases which have been notified to him or
her under the Public Health Acts and
Regulations.
The last infectious disease figures published by
ONS, for the quarter ending March 1997,
were published in Population and Health
Monitor MB2 97/3 on 24 September (see page
9 for publication details.) Further information
is available from: CDSC, 61 Colindale Avenue,
London NW9 5DF.
Sex ratio of live births in England and Wales by Social class of father as defined by
occupation, 1994–96 combined
Figure A
108
107
106
Average
105
104
103
102
101
0
N a t i o n a l
I
II
IIIn
IIIm
Social class
S t a t i s t i c s
IV
V
Other
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Recent ONS publications
1991 Census Key Statistics for Urban and Rural Areas,
Great Britain (The Stationery Office November Price £35
ISBN 0 11 691679 6). Provides a selection of 140 key statistics
for every town and city in Great Britain (with a population of
20,000 or more) at the time of the 1991 Census.
Health inequalities (The Stationery Office September Price
£35 ISBN 0 11 620942 9). Presents the latest analysis of the
varying risks of ill health and death faced by people living in
different social and economic environments.
Smoking among secondary school children in 1996:
England (The Stationery Office October Price £19 ISBN 0 11
620945 3). Provides up-to-date estimates of the prevalence of
smoking among secondary school children in England. The
estimates are based on the seventh survey of smoking among
11-15 year old school children carried out in 1996.
Family Spending 1996-97 (The Stationery Office October
Price £37.50 ISBN 0 11 620947 X). Results from the 40th year
of the Family Expenditure Survey which provides a detailed
analysis of all aspects of household income and expenditure from
April 1996 to March 1997.
Living in Britain, Preliminary results from the 1996
General Household Survey (The Stationery Office
November Price £10 ISBN 0 11 620946 1). Bulletin presenting
key results from General Household Survey carried out from
April 1996 to March 1997. Special topics of interest this year
include: burglaries in private households, cigarette smoking,
drinking, and sport and leisure activities.
Smoking among secondary school children in 1996:
Scotland (The Stationery Office October Price £19 ISBN 0 11
620944 5). Estimates of the prevalence of smoking among
secondary school children in Scotland, based on the seventh
survey of smoking among 12-15 year old school children in
Scotland.
Smoking-related behaviour and attitudes (The Stationery
Office October Price £10.95 ISBN 0 11 620948 8). Report based
on research carried out as part of the ONS Omnibus Survey in
November and December 1995, and repeated in October and
November 1996, exploring aspects of smoking behaviour and
attitudes to smoking in Great Britain.
Population and Health Monitors
Infant and perinatal mortality, social and biological factors 1996
(DH3 97/3 September £4.00)
Infectious diseases, March quarter 1997 (MB2 97/3 September
£4.00)
Mortality statistics general: 1993, 1994 and 1995 (The
Stationery Office October Price £35 ISBN 0 11 620920 8).
Reference volume presenting statistics on deaths in England and
Wales for the years 1993, 1994 and 1995. Deaths are classified
by age, sex, and certain other details collected at the time of
registration, such as, method of certification and place of death.
Marriages in England and Wales during 1995 (FM2 97/3
November £4.00)
Divorces in England and Wales during 1996 (FM2 97/4
November £4.00)
Young teenagers and alcohol in 1996,Volume 1: England
(The Stationery Office October Price £19 ISBN 0 11 620949 6).
Presents findings from a nationally representative survey of
school children aged 11-15 in 1996 in England.
Legal abortions, June quarter 1997 (AB 97/7 November £4.00)
Young teenagers and alcohol in 1996,Volume 2: Scotland
(The Stationery Office October Price £19 ISBN 0 11 620950X).
Presents results from a nationally representative survey for
school children aged 12-15 in 1996 in Scotland.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
updates
International migration
In 1996 258 thousand people migrated to the UK compared
with 245 thousand in 1995. The total outflow of migrants in
1996 was 212 thousand compared with 191 thousand in 1994.
This gave an overall net gain of 46 thousand in 1996, compared
with a net gain of 54 thousand in 1995 (see Table 18).
Deaths
Deaths in England and Wales numbered 293.2 thousand for the
first two quarters of 1997, this compares with 291.4 thousand in
1996 (see Table 8).
●
●
Divorces
The provisional number of divorces in United Kingdom in 1996
was 167.7 thousand, a fall of just over 1 per cent from the 1995
total of 170.0 thousand (see Table 8).
Births
The estimated number of live births in England and Wales for the
June quarter 1997 is 162.9 thousand compared to 158.1 thousand
for the same quarter in 1996; an increase of 3.0 per cent.
●
●
●
The number of live births outside marriage in England and Wales
increased from 54.8 thousand for the June quarter 1996 to 58.8
thousand for the same quarter in 1997; an increase of 7.3 per cent.
Demographic indicators – England and Wales
Population size
Figure 1
Population change (mid-year
to mid-year)
Figure 2
Millions
52
Thousands
250
Figure 3
International migration*
Thousands
300
Total change
200
inflow
51.5
250
Natural change
51
200
100
outflow
50.5
150
Net migration
50
1991
Figure 4
92
93
94
95
0
96
1991
Births
92
93
94
(mid-year)
96
95
Deaths
Figure 5
12 months - thousands
800
Quarterly thousands
200
0
Quarterly thousands
200
* United Kingdom
1991
Figure 6
12 months - thousands
800
92
93
94
Year
95
96
95
96
Infant mortality
(under 1 year)
Rate per 1,000 live births
10
9
175
175
700
150
600
700
8
7
600
150
125
125
1991
92
93
94
95
96
500
100
Source: Tables 5,8 and 17
10
O f f i c e
f o r
500
1991
92
Key to Figs 4-6:
N a t i o n a l
93
94
95
96
quarterly data
S t a t i s t i c s
400
6
5
1991
annual data
92
93
94
8990
89 0|| | SWu
W
i ntmte eer rr 111 999 999 777
im
n
TT rrr eee nnn ddd sss
PPP ooo ppp uuu lll aaa ttt iii ooo nnn T
Mor tality during the 1996/7
winter
Olivia Christophersen
Demography and Health, ONS
There was a sharp peak in mortality during the
1996/7 winter, resulting in an estimated 49
thousand excess deaths. This article describes
the timing of the winter peak, the population
affected and the main causes of death.The
relationship between excess winter mortality,
temperature and influenza is also explored.The
peak in the number of deaths in December 1996
and January 1997 coincided with a peak in the
number of deaths attributed to influenza and
with low temperatures. However, the excess
winter mortality was higher than expected,
based on the experience of previous winters.
INTRODUCTION
Mortality in England and Wales is consistently higher in winter
than during the rest of the year. In January 1997 a particularly
sharp rise in the total number of registered deaths was observed
during the routine publication of weekly death figures. The peak in
deaths from all causes coincided with a sharp increase in deaths
from influenza.
This article quantifies the excess mortality during the 1996/7
winter and describes the timing of the winter peak. The profile of
winter deaths in terms of age, sex and cause of death is examined
and the results are compared with the previous three winters. The
relationship between influenza, temperature and excess winter
mortality in 1996/7 is explored with reference to earlier winters
including 1989/90 when the last major influenza epidemic
occurred.
METHOD AND DEFINITIONS
Throughout this article winter is defined as the four month period
from December to March. Excess winter mortality (EWM) is
defined as the difference between the number of deaths which
occurred in winter and the average number of deaths during the
preceding four months (August to November) and the subsequent
four months (April to July)1. The number of excess winter deaths
was calculated for separate causes of death, by ICD chapter and
selected major causes, and for age and sex.
The EWM provides a useful indication of the increase in mortality
during winter, but it is a crude measure which can give a distorted
picture of the actual effect of winter conditions on mortality. For
example, any increase in mortality associated with cold
temperatures in November is classified as non-winter mortality and
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
11
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 1
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Daily deaths in November 1996 to March 1997 from all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases compared with the average daily
deaths from all causes on the same days during the previous three years, England and Wales
3000
2500
Daily deaths
2000
Average 93/94 - 95/96 All causes
1500
96/97 All causes
1000
96/97 Circulatory diseases
500
96/97 Respiratory diseases
0
November
December
January
The analysis was based on daily and monthly occurrences of deaths
in England and Wales. The data were extracted from the Office for
National Statistics mortality database on 17 October 1997. A small
proportion of deaths which occurred during the period covered by
the analysis (August 1993 to July 1997) would not have been
registered when the data were extracted and are therefore excluded
from the analysis. As a large proportion of these deaths would have
occurred during the most recent, non-winter months (from April to
July 1997), the figures presented here may slightly overestimate
the EWM. The results for deaths due to injury and poisoning will
be most affected by delayed registrations2.
The average number of deaths during the three previous winters,
from 1993/4 to 1995/6, was used as a baseline for comparison with
the 1996/7 winter. Using data from only the previous three winters
avoids any complications associated with the changes in the coding
of the underlying cause of death and with the termination of
medical enquiries, which took place in 1993.3 Of particular
relevance to the current analysis is the effect these changes had on
the number of deaths for which pneumonia was recorded as the
underlying cause. In order to compare the main causes of death in
1996/7 with 1989/90, conversion factors were used to make
allowances for these changes.
SIZE AND TIMING OF THE WINTER PEAK
Mortality was 29 per cent higher during the 1996/7 winter relative
to the preceding and subsequent four-month periods, resulting in
approximately 49 thousand excess winter deaths (EWDs). This
compares with an average of 31 thousand EWDs in each of the
three previous winters, when mortality was about 17 per cent
higher than during non-winter periods.
Figure 1 shows the number of deaths occurring on each day from
November 1996 to April 1997 compared with the average number
O f f i c e
f o r
April
1997
will lower the overall calculated EWM. This measure should
therefore be interpreted with some caution.
12
March
February
1996
N a t i o n a l
of daily deaths over the same months during the previous three
years. There was a deficit of deaths during November 1996
compared with the baseline. The number of daily deaths increased
sharply during the second half of December 1996, peaking on 2
January 1997 with 2,643 deaths. Mortality remained high for about
a week before declining fairly steeply during the rest of the month.
The number of daily deaths continued to decline, but at a slower
rate in February, falling below the average level of the previous
three winters by the middle of the month. The number of daily
deaths remained below the baseline for most of March and April
1997.
The mortality during the 1996/7 winter was therefore characterised
by a sharp peak at the beginning of January followed by a small but
prolonged deficit, compared with the baseline, in March and April.
This winter peak was much more pronounced than each of the
three previous winters (see Figure 2a). Although the excess winter
mortality in 1996/7 was higher than the baseline by about 18
thousand deaths, over the period from November 1996 to April
1997 there were only about three thousand more deaths compared
with the average for these months in the three previous winters.
This is partly due to the trough following the January peak and
partly because the daily number of deaths was below the baseline
in November 1996. The deficit of deaths following the sharp peak
in January suggests that the deaths of a number of vulnerable
people, who would otherwise have died within the next few
months, may have been brought forward. Similarly, the size of the
winter peak may have been more pronounced because a number of
people whose deaths were imminent survived the preceding weeks
but were then affected by some change in conditions during the
peak period.
Although EWM was higher during the 1996/7 winter compared
with the baseline, this disguises considerable variation in previous
years (see Figure 2a). For example, the figures are distorted by the
fact that much of the increase in mortality during 1993/4 occurred
in November and was therefore excluded from the EWM as
defined here. In addition, 1994/5 was a mild winter with relatively
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Table 1
Age in
years
The excess winter mortality in 1996/7 was characterised by the
high proportion of deaths attributed to respiratory diseases relative
to previous winters and a lower proportion due to circulatory
diseases. Respiratory diseases were recorded as the underlying
cause of death for nearly half of the excess winter deaths (23
thousand deaths) (see Table 2), compared with an average of 42 per
cent (13 thousand deaths) in the previous three winters.
Conversely, the proportion of excess winter deaths attributed to
circulatory diseases fell from 45 per cent in the baseline years to 36
per cent in 1996/7. This represents a substantial reduction from
several earlier reviews which attributed at least half of all excess
winter mortality to circulatory diseases.4,5
EWD per 1000 population*
Males
Females
Males
Females
0–14
15–44
45–64
65–74
75–84
85+
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.18
1.30
1.39
1.07
1.11
1.16
1.21
1.32
1.45
0.02
0.03
0.27
1.86
7.78
22.61
0.01
0.02
0.23
1.33
5.37
20.19
All ages
1.24
1.33
0.77
1.09
*based on mid-1996 population estimates.
Table 2
Excess winter mortality in 1996/7 by underlying cause of
death, England and Wales
Cause of death
Excess winter
deaths †
Percentage of
total excess
winter deaths
Ratio of
winter to nonwinter deaths
200
1,030
550
80
1,030
860
0
2
1
0
2
2
1.18
1.02
1.24
1.12
1.37
1.29
17,550
23,500
870
430
-0
60
36
48
2
1
-0
0
1.24
2.00
1.13
1.21
0.85
1.17
270
90
10
1,130
970
-50
1
0
0
2
2
-0
1.24
1.24
1.12
1.33
1.23
0.95
48,560 **
100 **
1.29
(ICD9* chapters)
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
Infectious & parasitic
Neoplasms
Endocrine
Blood
Mental
Nervous
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
Circulatory
Respiratory
Digestive
Genitourinary
Pregnancy
Skin
XIII
XIV
XV
XVI
XVII
Musculoskeletal
Congenital
Perinatal
Signs & symptoms
Injury & poisoning
Neonatal
Total for all causes
TT rr ee nn dd ss
C A U S E S O F D E AT H
Excess winter mortality by age and sex, England and Wales
Ratio of winter to non-winter
deaths
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
Deaths from respiratory diseases also showed the largest relative
increase in winter, with twice as many deaths during the winter of
1996/7 compared with the average for the preceding and
subsequent four-month periods. Mortality from circulatory diseases
on the other hand increased by just 24 per cent during the winter
relative to the non-winter periods.
The timing and shape of the peak in daily deaths from respiratory
diseases during December 1996 and January 1997 closely matches
that for deaths from all causes. Although the number of deaths
attributed to circulatory diseases peaks at around the same time, the
preceding increase and subsequent decline in the number of deaths
were more gradual than for deaths from all causes. (see Figure 1)
* International Classification of Diseases Ninth Revision
† Rounded to the nearest 10
** Totals do not add up exactly due to rounding.
few excess winter deaths (see Figure 2b). The fact that mortality
was lower than previous years during the autumn of 1996 and
spring of 1997 further exaggerates the EWM in 1996/7 compared
with the baseline.
DEMOGRAPHY OF THE EXCESS WINTER MORTALITY
As would be expected, the majority of excess winter deaths in
1996/7 occurred in older age groups (see Figure 3). Over three
quarters of the excess winter deaths were to people aged 75 years
and over, with women aged 85 years and over accounting for
nearly a third of the EWM. A significant proportion of the deaths
which occur in younger age groups are due to injury and poisoning
and are therefore often registered late2 . It is therefore likely that the
figures for EWM in younger age groups, which are based on deaths
which had been registered and entered onto the ONS database by
17 October 1997, may overestimate the actual number of excess
deaths in these age groups.
Deaths to females accounted for approximately 60 per cent of the
excess winter mortality largely because of the high proportion of
women in the older age groups relative to men. In each of the older
age groups the percentage increase in mortality in winter was
higher for women than for men but the number of winter deaths per
1,000 population was higher for men (see Table 1).
Deaths from most other causes, according to ICD chapters, also
increased to some extent during the winter. There was a
particularly notable increase in deaths due to mental disorders and
signs and symptoms which can largely be attributed to diseases
associated with old age such as senile dementia and ‘senility
without mention of psychosis’. Neoplasms, on the other hand,
which account for a quarter of all deaths, increased by only 2 per
cent during the winter, resulting in just 2 per cent of the total
EWM. The number of excess winters deaths attributed to injury
and poisoning is likely to be an overestimate as a significant
proportion of these deaths, particularly those which occurred
during the most recent, non-winter months would not have been
registered when the data was extracted from the database.
In terms of specific causes of death, four causes accounted for over
70 per cent of the excess winter mortality in 1996/7: pneumonia,
ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and bronchitis
(see Table 3). Pneumonia accounted for nearly one third of the
excess winter mortality and approximately two thirds of all
respiratory deaths, while ischaemic heart disease accounted for just
under one fifth of the EWM.
There was an increase in mortality in the 1996/7 winter for many
other specific causes of death, particularly chronic disabling
diseases associated with old age such as Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s
and osteoporosis, all of which increased by about a third during the
winter compared with the average non-winter levels. Other
diseases which recorded a marked increase in mortality in winter
included asthma (56 per cent increase), fractured neck of femur (43
per cent), hypertensive disease (34 per cent), pulmonary embolism
(29 per cent), diabetes (26 per cent) and ulcer of the stomach and
duodenum (24 per cent).There was a substantial increase (364 per
cent) in deaths from hypothermia in the winter relative to the rest
of the year although only about 100 excess winter deaths were
attributed to it.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
13
P o p u l a t i o n
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
2500
50
2000
40
Total
1500
30
1000
20
Circulatory diseases
500
Number of deaths from influenza
Average number of deaths per day by month from August 1993 to March 1997 for selected causes, England and Wales
Figure 2a
Number of deaths from respiratory and circulatory
diseases, neoplasms and all causes
T r e n d s
10
Neoplasms
Respiratory diseases
Influenza
0
0
A S O N D J
F M A M J
1993
J A S O N D J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D J
J
A S O N D J
F M
1997
1996
1995
Months
1994
F M A M J
Mean monthly Central England temperature from August 1993 to March 1997
Figure 2b
20
18
16
Temperature oC
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
A S O N D J
F M A M J
1993
J
A S O N D J
F M A M J
The largest percentage increase in mortality during winter occurred
for deaths from influenza, reflecting its absence during the rest of
the year (see Table 3). Only 375 deaths were attributed directly to
influenza in the winter of 1996/7 and there were just 50 deaths for
which influenza was mentioned on the death certificate other than
as the underlying cause of death. However, it is likely that
influenza is frequently undiagnosed and is a causal or contributory
factor in many more excess winter deaths, particularly those
attributed to other respiratory diseases. It has been estimated that
between 1949 and 1985 there were on average 2.6 ‘hidden deaths’
associated with each death attributed to influenza and during the
1989/90 influenza epidemic this hidden factor increased to
approximately nine.6
14
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
J
1995
Months
1994
A S O N D J
F M A M J
1996
J
A S O N D J
F M
1997
C O M PA R I S O N W I T H T H E 1 9 8 9 / 9 0 I N F L U E N Z A
EPIDEMIC
The last major influenza epidemic in England and Wales occurred
during the winter of 1989/90. Figure 4 shows the excess and deficit
of daily deaths from November 1989 to March 1990 compared
with the average number of daily deaths during the previous four
years (reproduced from Population Trends 656). Ashley et al
defined the period between 17 November 1989 and 11 January
1990, when the number of daily deaths exceeded the baseline, as
the ‘epidemic period’ and analysed the causes of the excess deaths
which occurred during this period. This analysis was repeated for
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Table 3
Excess winter mortality from specific causes in 1996/7
compared with the average for the previous three winters,
England and Wales
Percentage of EWM
Figure 3
1996/7
1993/4 1995/6
Total circulatory
Ischaemic heart disease
[ICD9* 410-414]
Cerebrovascular disease
[ICD9* 430-438]
36
45
1.24
1.18
19
25
1.23
1.18
10
11
1.27
1.18
Total respiratory
Pneumonia
[ICD9* 480-486]
Bronchitis
[ICD9* 466, 490-1, 496]
Influenza
ICD9* 487]
48
42
2.00
1.51
32
26
2.07
1.52
12
12
1.94
1.53
1
0.5
150.00
4.17
8000
6000
4000
0–14
15-44
65–74
45–64
Age-group
75–84
85+
The main factors associated with excess winter mortality are
temperature and deaths from influenza.8 Both these factors were
strongly correlated with weekly winter mortality from all causes
and from respiratory and circulatory diseases during the 1996/7
winter (see Table 5 and Figure 6). The peak in the total number of
daily deaths coincided with a particularly cold period from 31
December 1996 to 9 January 1997 (based on daily mean central
England temperatures). Most of the deaths from influenza were
also concentrated over this relatively short period with a sharp rise
in deaths from 24 December to a peak of 22 deaths on 8 January
followed by a steep decline to very low levels by the end of
January.
15
46
22
2
28
49
20
10
*Using conversion factors to account for changes in medical enquiries and in the coding of the
underlying cause of death. 7
All causes
Respiratory
Circulatory
Influenza
Temperature
10000
R E L AT I O N S H I P
BETWEEN
INFLUENZA,
TEMPERATURE AND EXCESS WINTER MORTALITY
Percentage of excess deaths
1996/7*
1989/90
Table 5
Female
12000
0
Underlying cause of death for the excess deaths occurring
during the ‘epidemic periods’ in the winters of 1996/7 and
1989/90, England and Wales
Circulatory disease
Respiratory disease
Pneumonia
Influenza
Male
2000
*International Classification of Diseases Ninth Revision.
Table 4
Number of excess winter deaths in 1996/7 by sex and
age, England and Wales
14000
Number of excess winter deaths
1993/4 1995/6
TT rr ee nn dd ss
16000
Ratio of winter to nonwinter deaths
1996/7
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
Correlation between weekly deaths from various causes
and mean weekly Central England temperature during the
1996/7 winter, England and Wales
All causes
Respiratory
Circulatory
Influenza
Temperature
1
0.99
0.99
0.94
-0.86
1
0.95
0.97
-0.80
1
0.89
-0.89
1
-0.70
1
the mortality between November 1996 and March 1997, taking the
average of the previous three years as the baseline (see Figure 5).
In both cases the ‘epidemic period’ lasted approximately two
months and was followed by a deficit of daily deaths. However, the
excess mortality during the ‘epidemic period’ in 1989/90 was much
higher, with about 25 thousand excess deaths compared with 15
thousand in 1996/7. Table 4 shows the proportion of EWD during
the ‘epidemic periods’ in 1989/90 and 1996/7 attributable to
selected causes of death. Conversion factors have been used to
account for the effects of changes in the coding of the underlying
cause of death and in medical enquiries which took place in 1993.
The proportion of excess deaths attributable to pneumonia and to
all respiratory diseases was similar during both ‘epidemic periods’.
However, less than 2 per cent of the excess deaths during the
‘epidemic period’ in 1996/7 were attributed to influenza compared
with 10 per cent in 1989/90 (see Table 4). The proportion due to
circulatory diseases was also much lower during 1996/7.
Monthly data relating to the total number of deaths from all causes
and from influenza and to the mean central England temperature
from August 1993 to March 1997 reveal a similar relationship
between these variables (see Figure 2). There was a large increase
in mortality during the 1993/4 and 1995/6 winters both of which
experienced low temperatures and high numbers of influenza
deaths. During the 1994/5 winter, which was relatively mild, there
were fewer deaths from influenza and a smaller increase in
mortality overall. The 1996/7 winter mortality appears to fit this
pattern, although the total excess winter mortality appears to be
higher than would be expected, particularly as 1996/7 was not an
exceptionally cold winter, based on mean monthly central England
temperatures. This is supported by applying the following
regression equation (developed by Curwen and Devis1), describing
the relationship between winter mortality, temperature and
influenza:
Expected EWM = 3.64I + 7,750 (5.05 - T) - 534Y + 51,870 , where
T is the mean temperature ( oC) recorded for England and Wales
over the four winter months
I is the number of registered influenza deaths during the four
winter months and
Y is an additional factor relating to year number (1949-50 = 1) to
allow for the underlying reduction in EWM over time.
This equation was found to account for 88 per cent of the total
annual variation in EWM from 1949 to 1985. Substituting 1996/7
figures into this equation gives an expected excess winter mortality
of 26,634 which is considerably lower than the observed number of
49 thousand excess winter deaths. When the number of deaths
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
15
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 4
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Excess/deficit of daily deaths in November 1989 to March 1990,compared with the daily average for the same days in 1985/6 to 1988/9,
Great Britain
1,500
Excess deaths
Deficit deaths
Excess/deficit of daily deaths
1,000
500
0
Epidemic period
(17 November - 11 January)
-500
December
November
January
1989
Figure 5
February
1990
March
Excess/deficit of daily deaths in November 1996 to March 1997,compared with the daily average for the same days in 1993/4 to 1995/6,
England and Wales
1,500
Excess deaths
Deficit deaths
Excess/deficit of daily deaths
1,000
500
0
Epidemic period
(16 December - 16 February)
-500
December
November
January
1996
16
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
February
1997
March
8 89 0| | S u
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i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Figure 6
Relationship between weekly deaths from all causes
and from influenza in England and Wales and mean
weekly central England temperature, 1 December 1996
to 29 March 1997
10.0
J
JJ
8.0
J
JJ
Mean weekly CET/oC
6.0
4.0
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
0.0
20
40
60
80
J
100
120
Weekly deaths from influenza
-2.0
120
J
Weekly deaths from influenza
100
80
J J
60
J
40
0
0
associated with each death from influenza is increased from 2.64 to
9 (the number of ‘hidden’ deaths associated with the 1989/90
epidemic), the expected excess winter mortality in 1996/7 increases
to 29,019, but is still much lower than the observed level. The fact
that this model, which uses temperature data averaged over long
periods, fails to fit the 1996/7 data is probably related to the fact
that the cold weather and associated EWM in 1996/7 were
concentrated over an unusually short period compared to previous
winters. There may also have been a change in the underlying
downward trend of EWM over time.
Although the pattern of winter deaths in 1996/7 was similar to
earlier years in some respects, there were certain distinctive
features. Circulatory and respiratory diseases remained the main
causes of excess winter mortality, although respiratory diseases
were relatively more important than during previous winters. This
may suggest that influenza, which tends to be more strongly
correlated with respiratory than circulatory deaths, was an
important factor in the EWM in 1996/7.5 However, the proportion
of excess deaths due to influenza in 1996/7 was much lower than
during the previous influenza epidemic in 1989/90.
Based on monthly figures, the relationship between temperature,
influenza and excess winter mortality appears to have changed over
time with higher excess winter mortality than expected from the
temperature and levels of influenza observed during the winter of
1996/7. This may be partly explained by the fact that the excess
mortality was concentrated over a short period of approximately
three weeks. Moreover, the low mortality during the preceding
autumn and subsequent spring exaggerated the level of EWM in
1996/7 relative to the baseline. More detailed analysis using daily
and regional data from 1996/7 and previous winters would provide
a fuller understanding of the link between temperature, influenza
and EWM during the 1996/7 winter.
References
J J
J
J
JJ J
JJJ JJ
20
1.
ééé
é
éé
éééééé é é
é
é
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
Weekly deaths from all causes
2.
3.
10.0
JJJ
8.0
Mean weekly CET/oC
J
JJ
4.
5.
J
J
6.0
J
4.0
6.
J
J J
J
7.
J
8.
2.0
J
0.0
0
-2.0
TT rr ee nn dd ss
CONCLUSION
J
2.0
0
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
J
Curwen, M. and Devis, T. Winter mortality, temperature and
influenza: has the relationship changed in recent years?
Population Trends 54, HMSO (1988), 17-20
Devis, T and Rooney, C. The time taken to register a death.
Population Trends 88, The Stationery Office (1997), 48-55.
Rooney, C. and Devis, T. Mortality trends by cause of death
in England and Wales 1980-94; the impact of introducing
automated cause coding and related changes in 1993.
Population Trends 86, HMSO (1996), 29-35.
Deaths in winter. The Lancet (1985).
Curwen, M. Excess winter mortality: a British phenomenon?
Health Trends 22(4) (1990/91), 169-175.
Ashley, J. Smith, T. and Dunnell, K. Deaths in Great Britain
associated with the influenza epidemic of 1989/90
Population Trends 65, HMSO (1991), 16-20.
Office for National Statistics. Mortality Statistics: cause
1993 (revised) and 1994. Series DH2 no.21. HMSO (1996).
Curwen, M. Excess winter mortality in England and Wales
with special reference to the effects of temperature and
influenza. The Health of Adult Britain 1841-1994. Volume 1
The Stationery Office (1997) 205-216.
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
J
Weekly deaths from all causes
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
17
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
T rr ee nn dd ss
T
99 00 ||
W ii nn tt ee rr 1 91 99 79 7
W
Latest population projections for
the European Union
Chris Shaw,
Government Actuary’s Department
Harri Cruijsen,
Eurostat
Joop de Beer and Andries de Jong,
Statistics Netherlands
This article presents the results of Eurostat’s latest
population projections for the 15 countries of the
European Union. Under the Eurostat baseline
scenario, the EU population will continue to grow
slowly until around the year 2025 before starting to
decline.The number of young people will continue
to fall, while the number of older people will
increase.To greater or lesser extents, all EU
INTRODUCTION
countries will experience declining population
growth and an ageing population.
National population projections by age and sex are produced by all
national statistical institutes within the European Union.1 In the
United Kingdom, national population projections are produced by
the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) in consultation with
the Registrars General. New 1996-based projections (replacing the
previous 1994-based projections2 ) are scheduled to be issued at the
end of November 1997; a summary of the proposed assumptions
was given in the previous issue of Population Trends3 and details of
the results will be published in an ONS Population and Health
Monitor early next year.
However, the projections made by national institutes are not
directly comparable. They can differ in a number of respects, for
example in methodology, the detail of what is projected and in the
frequency with which they are produced. Therefore, with the
growing need to place expected demographic developments in
individual countries in a wider context, there is a need for
internationally consistent sets of demographic projections. A
number of organisations produce such projections, notably the
United Nations4 and the Statistical Office of the European
Communities (Eurostat).
Until now, the European Commission has used the Eurostat
projections mainly for demographic, employment and regional
reports and for various studies on population ageing. In the near
future, the projections are also likely to be used for various
environmental and economic studies. It is also expected that, as
awareness of these projections increases, external use of the
projections will grow.
18
O f f i c e
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N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
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i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
This article reports on the latest Eurostat projections for the fifteen
European Union countries (EU15) covering the period 1995-2050.
These projections were compiled in 1996 by Statistics Netherlands
on behalf of Eurostat. Projections were also prepared for Iceland,
Liechtenstein and Norway which, together with the EU15,
comprise the European Economic Area (EEA). Results for these
three countries are not included in this article but are summarised
elsewhere.5
In the baseline scenario, it is assumed that the decline in fertility
which has already occurred in recent years at younger ages will not
be fully offset by future higher fertility at older ages. Therefore,
although the assumed long-term fertility levels are sometimes
higher than current TFRs, the decline in completed cohort fertility
is assumed to continue for virtually all countries. Assumed fertility
levels are then held constant for women born in or after 1990;
TFRs therefore remain constant from 2035.
To illustrate the inherent uncertainty of population projections, five
different ‘scenarios’ were produced based on three different sets of
assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The
central assumptions for each of the three components of population
change were combined to give the ‘baseline scenario’ which is
broadly consistent with a continuation of current trends.
Notwithstanding the comments made above about methodological
differences, in general, Eurostat’s baseline scenario is deliberately
close to the latest medium (or principal) projection made by
individual countries. This is true for the United Kingdom, although
one or two key differences between the assumptions made in our
national projections and the assumptions made by Eurostat are
highlighted in this article.
In the baseline scenario, long-term fertility is assumed to be below
‘replacement level’ for all countries. The highest assumption (of
1.9 children per woman) is made for Sweden, while the United
Kingdom is one of eight EU countries with a long-term assumption
of 1.8. This is the same assumption as currently made by GAD in
the official national projections for the UK.3 The lowest
assumptions are made for the countries of Southern Europe and for
Germany and Austria where current fertility levels are all very low.
Because of the influence of the large low fertility countries of
Germany, Italy and Spain, the assumption for the UK is somewhat
above the overall EU average of 1.66.
The ‘high scenario’ combines the higher assumptions of future
fertility, life expectancy and net migration while the ‘low scenario’
combines the lower assumptions of the three components. This pair
of projections provides sharply contrasting scenarios of future
population size and growth. However, age distributions do not
differ greatly between them as the number of young and old people
are both high in the high scenario and both low in the low scenario.
Therefore, to illustrate the uncertainty relating to age structure, two
additional scenarios were prepared. The ‘young scenario’ combines
the assumptions of high fertility and high migration with that of
low life expectancy, while the ‘old scenario’ combines high life
expectancy with low fertility and low migration.
Users of the projections should also always bear in mind the
increasing uncertainty of population projections with time. These
projections are taken forward to the middle of the next century i.e.
fifty-five years from the base year of 1995. However, as illustrated
later by Figure 3, the margins of uncertainty grow very wide by the
end of the projection period.
FERTILITY
Fertility assumptions were based on an analysis of the ultimate
number of children born to women by the mother’s year of birth. 6
This cohort measure is more stable than the analogous calendar
year (period) measure, the total fertility rate (TFR), as it is affected
only by changes in the number of children women have, and not by
the timing of births within women’s lives.
Actual and assumed levels of fertility for EU countries are shown
in Table 1. This table shows both the average completed family
size for selected birth cohorts and the TFR (the hypothetical
average number of children who would be born per woman if
women experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the year in
question throughout their childbearing lives). TFRs fell markedly
in the EU during the 1970s. Since 1980, the levels have been
relatively stable in many countries, although in Southern Europe
and Ireland the TFRs continued to decline strongly. As noted
above, trends in the TFR are affected by changes in the timing of
births and in recent years, there has been a tendency for women to
delay childbearing with the numbers of births falling at younger
ages and, in most countries, rising at older ages.
In the high scenario, it is assumed that women born in the 1960s
and 1970s will largely make up for births deferred at younger ages
by higher fertility at older ages. Under this scenario, the long-term
average completed family size for the EU as a whole would be 1.94
children per woman, almost identical to that achieved by the 1950
cohort who have now virtually completed their childbearing. In the
low scenario, it is assumed that there will be little or no catching
up. Under this scenario, average family size would continue
declining, eventually reaching 1.45 for women born in or after
1990. The low scenario would be consistent with about 30 per cent
of women remaining childless. Under the high scenario, TFRs
would increase in all countries compared with current levels, but
under the low scenario they would fall except for those countries
where TFRs are currently below 1.5.
M O R TA L I T Y
The mortality assumptions were based on an analysis of both age
and sex specific mortality rates and life expectancy at birth.7 Actual
and assumed expectations of life (based on the mortality rates for
the given year) are shown in Table 2.
Since 1980, life expectancy at birth in the EU has increased by
nearly 3.5 years for both sexes, equivalent to an average annual
increase of over 0.2 years. The geographic differentials observed
for fertility are not repeated for mortality. For example, in Northern
Europe, life expectancy is currently well above the EU average in
Sweden but below average in Denmark and, for males, in Finland.
Similarly in Southern Europe, there are high life expectancy
countries (e.g. Italy for both sexes and Greece for males) while
Portugal has tended to have around the lowest figures in the EU. In
the EU as a whole, expectation of life at birth in 1995 was 6.5
years greater for females than males. This sex differential varied
from eight years in France to just over five years in the UK,
Denmark, Sweden and Greece.
In the baseline scenario, expectation of life at birth is assumed to
increase by about six years for males by 2050 and by about five
years for females. However, the rate of increase is assumed to
gradually slow down. This is because mortality rates at young ages,
which have the greatest impact on expectation of life, are already
so low that the potential for further improvement is limited. The
country differentials in the assumptions at the year 2050 (see
Figure 1) are broadly similar to the current pattern. For the UK,
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
19
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 1
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Actual and assumed average completed family sizes and total fertility rates for EU countries
(a) Average completed family sizes by year of birth of woman
Actual data
1940
Eurostat assumptions for 1990 and later cohorts
1945
1950
Low
scenario
Baseline
scenario
High
scenario
EU15
-
2.05
1.96
1.45§
1.66§
1.94§
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
2.17
2.17
2.24
2.03
2.41
1.77
1.94
2.06
1.87
2.22
1.89
1.84
1.90
1.85
2.11
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
Germany*
Greece
Ireland
Luxembourg
1.98
2.01
3.27
2.14
-
1.79
2.00
3.27
2.07
1.82
1.72
2.07
2.99
1.90
1.72
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.8
2.0
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
2.21
2.61
2.59
2.05
2.39
1.99
2.31
2.43
1.96
2.22
1.90
2.12
2.19
2.00
2.09
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.1
Italy
(b) Total fertility rates by calendar year
Actual data
1970
Eurostat assumptions for 2035 and later years
1980
1995
Low
scenario
Baseline
scenario
High
scenario
EU15
2.38
1.82
1.43p
1.45§
1.66§
1.94§
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
2.29
2.25
1.95
1.83
2.47
1.62
1.68
1.55
1.63
1.95
1.40
1.55p
1.80
1.81
1.70p
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
Germany*
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
2.03
2.39
3.93
2.42
1.98
1.56
2.21
3.25
1.64
1.49
1.25
1.32
1.86p
1.17p
1.69
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.8
2.0
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
2.57
2.83
2.90
1.92
2.43
1.60
2.18
2.20
1.68
1.90
1.53
1.40
1.18p
1.73
1.71
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.1
Source for non-UK historical data: Demographic Statistics 1997, Eurostat. p Provisional
§ Approximate. EU15 averages will vary marginally from cohort to cohort and year to year.
* All data for Germany are based on current borders.
expectation of life at birth for females in the United Kingdom is
currently about one year below the EU average, but by 2050, the
assumptions for the UK of 80 years for males and 85 years for
females are both in line with the EU average. The Eurostat
assumptions for the UK are slightly more optimistic than those
currently made by GAD in its national projections.3
M I G R AT I O N
Mortality trends are, of course, influenced by both positive and
negative factors. In the high scenario, positive influences such as
improvements in preventative and curative health services and
healthy lifestyles are assumed to prevail. As a result, life
expectancy for males by 2050 is assumed to be three years greater
for all countries than in the baseline scenario, and two years greater
for females (but only one year for France). In the low scenario, the
effect of these positive influences is assumed to reduce and to be
counteracted by negative influences such as increases in cigarette
smoking and stress. Under this scenario, life expectancy is assumed
to improve by only about two years for both males and females
compared with current levels.
Net migration to the EU has risen sharply in recent years from
about 50 thousand per year in the early eighties to nearly half a
million per year in the late eighties and over one million per year in
the early nineties. Although Germany has, since 1985, accounted
for over half of all net migration to the EU, all countries except
Ireland and Portugal experienced net inflows in the first half of the
1990s.
20
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
Assumptions of net international migration for the individual
countries of the EU were based on population size and past
migration patterns.8 Actual and assumed net migration figures are
shown in Table 3.
In the baseline scenario, net migration to the EU as a whole is
assumed to move from current levels to nearly 600 thousand per
annum from the year 2020, broadly equivalent to the average level
of the past fifteen years. For almost all countries, this represents a
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Table 2
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Actual and assumed expectation of life at birth for EU countries
years
(a) Males
Actual data
Eurostat assumptions for 2050
1970*
1980*
1995
Low
scenario
Baseline
scenario
High
scenario
EU15
68.6
70.5
73.9p
75.8
79.7
82.7
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
66.5
67.8
70.7
68.4
69.0
70.0
71.2
69.2
70.2
73.6
73.4p
72.7
72.8
73.9p
75.5
76.0
75.0
74.5
76.0
80.0
80.0
79.0
79.0
80.0
83.0
83.0
82.0
82.0
83.0
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
70.1
68.8
69.0
67.1
72.2
70.1
70.6
69.1
73.3
75.0
73.0p
74.9p
73.0
75.0
77.5
75.0
76.0
75.5
79.0
81.0
79.0
80.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
82.0
83.0
83.0
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
70.7
64.2
69.2
68.6
72.7
67.7
72.5
70.5
74.6
71.3
74.3p
76.2
74.0
76.5
73.0
75.5
78.0
76.5
80.0
78.0
79.0
82.0
80.0
83.0
82.0
82.0
85.0
83.0
(b) Females
Actual data
Eurostat assumptions for 2050
1970*
1980*
1995
Low
scenario
Baseline
scenario
High
scenario
EU15
74.6
77.1
80.4p
82.2
85.1
86.9
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
73.4
74.2
75.9
75.9
76.1
76.8
77.3
77.6
78.4
80.1
80.2p
77.8
80.2
81.8p
81.5
82.0
79.5
81.5
84.0
85.0
85.0
83.0
85.0
87.0
87.0
87.0
85.0
87.0
88.0
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
73.8
73.5
74.9
73.4
76.8
75.6
77.4
75.9
79.7
80.3
78.6p
81.4p
80.2
81.5
82.0
80.5
82.5
81.5
84.0
85.0
84.0
85.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
86.0
87.0
87.0
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
76.5
70.8
74.8
75.0
79.3
75.2
78.6
76.6
80.4
78.6
81.5p
81.4
79.3
82.0
80.0
82.5
83.0
81.5
85.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
85.0
87.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
87.0
Source for non-UK historical data: Demographic Statistics 1997, Eurostat.
* or nearest available year
p
Provisional.
decline from the levels of the early 1990s, based on an assumption
that immigration policy will become increasingly restrictive. Net
inflows are assumed for all countries except Ireland. In absolute
terms, Germany dominates and is assumed to take one third of total
net migration. Net inward migration of 45 thousand per year is
assumed for the UK, making it the fifth largest recipient of
migrants behind Germany, Italy, Spain and France.
Compared to the size of the population, however, the net migration
assumption for the United Kingdom is relatively low (see Figure
1). Net migration rates at the year 2020 are projected to be highest
in Luxembourg (the smallest EU country), followed by Austria.
Apart from Ireland, the lowest projected rates are for the UK,
France and Finland. The average for the EU as a whole at 2020 is
1.5 per 1,000 population.
In the previous (1994-based) GAD national projections for the UK,
net migration of 50 thousand per year was assumed up to 2009
followed by a decline to net zero migration from 2018 onwards.
These assumptions were therefore slightly higher than those made
by Eurostat in the medium-term, but considerably lower in the
longer-term. Indeed GAD’s long-term assumption of net zero
migration was below Eurostat’s low scenario for the UK. However,
net migration to the United Kingdom was high in both 1994 and
1995, and for the 1996-based projections, GAD have revised the
medium-term net migration assumption upwards to 65 thousand
per year and assumed that this will continue unchanged into the
longer-term.3 The revised assumption is therefore now well above
Eurostat’s baseline scenario, although still below their high
scenario.
Although the size of net migration flows to Europe could vary
substantially depending largely on economic developments and
migration policies, all Eurostat’s migration scenarios assume that
Europe will remain an attractive region for immigrants. The high
migration scenario assumes a net inflow of almost 800 thousand
persons each year to the EU, which is still well below the average
level of the early 1990s. The low migration scenario assumes
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
21
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 1
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Assumptions for Eurostat baseline scenario
(a) Total fertility rate at 2035
(c) Net migration per 1,000 population at 2020
Rate per 1,000
Total fertility rate
(no. of countries in category)
(no. of countries in category)
1.90 (1)
1.80 (8)
1.70 (2)
1.60 (1)
1.50 (3)
>2.5
2.0 to 2.5
(2)
(5)
1.5 to 2.0
1.0 to 1.5
0.0 to 1.0
(1)
(3)
(3)
<0.0
(1)
(b) Expectation of life at birth at 2050
(i) Males
(ii) Females
Expectation of life
in years
Expectation of life
in years
(no. of countries in category)
(no. of countries in category)
82 (1)
81 (1)
80 (7)
79 (5)
78 (1)
22
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
87 (1)
86 (1)
85 (9)
84 (3)
83 (1)
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Table 3
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Actual and assumed net migration into EU countries
thousands
Actual data
1980–84
average
Eurostat assumptions for 2020 and later years
1985–89
average
1990–94
average
Low
scenario
Baseline
scenario
High
scenario
Per 1,000
population
in 2020
(baseline)
EU15
52
453
1,051 p
396
592
788
1.5
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
6
-7
1
4
52
21
8
6
2
50
59
19
11
9
76 p
15
10
5
0
30
23
15
10
5
50
30
20
15
10
70
2.7
1.4
1.8
0.9
0.8
Germany*
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
2
17
-7
-28
0
332
24
-33
-3
2
563
58
-2 p
109
4
150
20
-5
60
1
200
25
-3
80
2
250
30
0
100
3
2.4
2.2
-0.7
1.4
4.0
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
14
4
-1
5
-14
27
-45
-20
24
55
41
-13
16
32
68
20
20
40
10
20
35
25
60
20
45
50
30
80
30
70
2.0
2.4
1.5
2.1
0.7
Source for non-UK historical data: Demographic Statistics 1997, Eurostat.
p Provisional
* All data for Germany are based on current borders
Figure 2
Actual and projected world population 1960–2050
10,000
World
P O P U L AT I O N S I Z E
Projected
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Millions
nearly 400 thousand net migrants per year, below the average of
the past ten years but still considerably higher than experienced in
the early 1980s.
4,000
3,000
Rest of Asia
2,500
Africa
2,000
China
1,500
India
1,000
L America/Caribbean
Europe
500
N America/Oceania
0
1960
1980
2000
Year
2020
2040
World population
The medium variant from the latest UN world projections4 shows
that the population of Europe as a whole (of which the European
Union comprises about one half) is projected to fall from 728
million in 1995 to under 650 million by 2050, while the total world
population increases by almost two thirds, rising from 5.7 billion in
1995 to well over 9 billion by 2050 (see Figure 2). As a result,
Europe’s share of the total world population, which was 20 per cent
in 1960 and 14 per cent in 1990, will continue falling to only 7 per
cent by 2050. In fact, alone amongst the major areas of the world
shown in Figure 2, the UN projects population decline in Europe
over this period. However, population growth is projected to be
modest in North America and Oceania, and the population of China
is projected to peak just before 2050. At the other end of the
spectrum, the population of Africa, which was still estimated in
1995 to be slightly smaller than that of Europe, is projected to
almost triple in size by 2050.
Total European Union
Eurostat’s projected trends in the size of the total population of the
European Union are shown in Figure 3. The EU15 is currently
estimated to number around 370 million people. Under the baseline
scenario, the population would peak at around 390 million in 2023
and by 2050 it would be back to its current size. Under the low
scenario, population decline would start in 2002 and by 2050 the
population would number about 300 million, nearly 20 per cent
below its present size. However, under the high scenario the
population would continue increasing to reach nearly 450 million
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
23
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
by 2050, some 20 per cent above its present size. But, even under
this ‘extreme’ combination of high fertility, high life expectancy
and high migration, population growth would have virtually ceased
by the middle of the next century.
population peak for the UK, but the 1996-based projections should
be more consistent with the Eurostat projections in this respect
(results were not available at the time of writing), because of the
upward revision to the migration assumptions.]
The reason for the virtual inevitability of population decline in the
first half of the next century is shown by Figure 4. While net
migration to the EU15 has grown in recent years and is projected to
remain positive under all scenarios, the contribution of natural
change (births minus deaths) to population growth has fallen
steadily since the mid 1960s and will eventually become negative
even under the high scenario. In the low scenario, deaths would
overtake births almost immediately. Net migration overtook natural
change as the main contributor to population growth in 1989 and
accounted for over two thirds of the rise in the EU15 population in
the first half of the 1990s.
Under the low scenario, population decline would start
immediately in Italy and would be occurring in all countries by
2025, but under the high scenario, only Germany, Italy and Spain
would be experiencing population decline even at 2050.
In 1995, there were 4.0 million births and 3.7 million deaths in the
European Union. Under the baseline scenario, the annual number
of deaths will begin to outnumber births around 2010. Births will
fall fairly gradually as the large cohorts of women born in the mid
1960s baby boom move out of the peak childbearing ages while
deaths will increase steadily, despite the assumption of improving
life expectancy, as a result of population ageing.
Individual countries
The projected populations of the individual countries under the
baseline, high and low scenarios are shown in Table 4. Under the
baseline scenario, as illustrated by Figure 5, population decline
would begin in the first half of the next century in all countries
except Sweden and Luxembourg. Sweden is the only country
where TFRs, life expectancy and net migration rates are all
assumed to be well above the EU average, while Luxembourg has
much the greatest assumption of net migration relative to the size
of its population. Populations would peak first around 2010 in the
low fertility countries of Italy, Germany and Spain. In other
countries, population decline would not start until after 2025. The
population of the United Kingdom is not projected to peak until
2030. [The GAD’s 1994-based national projections gave an earlier
Figure 3
Germany will remain the largest of the EU countries with its
population rising from 81.5 million in 1995 to a peak of nearly 85
million in 2013 (see Figure 6). In 1995, the United Kingdom was
the second largest of the EU countries, but with only a slightly
larger population than both France and Italy. The gap between the
UK and France has been narrowing in recent years and France is
projected to overtake the UK in population size at the turn of the
century. The main reason for this is that the UK currently has over
100 thousand more deaths per year than France. This arises
because the UK has a larger proportion of its population aged over
65 than France, and because mortality rates are higher at these ages
in the UK. However, Italy’s population will fall far below that of
both the UK and France during the next century, reflecting the
baseline scenario assumption of 20 per cent higher fertility levels
in the UK and France.
A G E S T RU C T U R E
Persons aged 0-19
Figure 7 shows that the number of people aged under 20 in the EU
has fallen rapidly over the last twenty years from 110 million in
1975 to under 90 million in 1995. Under the baseline scenario this
decline would continue, although at a slower rate, with the number
of young people falling to 80 million by 2020 and to 70 million by
2050. However, the numbers under 20 at the middle of the next
century could be as many as 100 million under the high scenario or
as few as 50 million under the low scenario. This illustrates the
dramatic effect that changes in the levels of long-term fertility
could have on the size and age structure of the population.
Actual and projected population of the EU15,
1960–2050
Figure 4
Components of population change in the EU15,
1960–2050
500
2.5
450
High scenario
1.5
400
Baseline scenario
0.5
Millions
Millions
Projected
350
Net
migration
High
-0.5
Baseline
Low scenario
300
-1.5
-2.5
Low
250
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
-3.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
24
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
Natural
change
(births deaths)
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Under the baseline scenario, the projected number of young people
would fall in the next twenty-five years in every country except
Luxembourg (see Table 5). These falls would be marginal in the
Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark, but Italy, Spain, Germany and
the UK are all projected to have over 1.5 million fewer persons
aged under 20, and France 1 million fewer, by the year 2020. And,
as shown in Figure 8(a), young people as a proportion of the total
population will decline significantly in each EU country between
1995 and 2020. Despite a particularly large fall over the next
twenty-five years, Ireland will still have the largest proportion (25
per cent) of young people in the EU at 2020. The smallest
proportions (under 19 per cent) would be in the low fertility
countries of Germany and Italy. The proportion of people under 20
in the UK will fall from just over 25 per cent in 1995 to about 22
per cent in 2020, slightly above the EU average.
Although the size of the working age population will not change
greatly by 2020 in the EU as a whole, Table 5 shows there are
marked differences between countries. In the baseline scenario, the
number of 20 to 59 year olds is projected to fall by nearly 3 million
in Italy and by about 2 million in Germany. But in most other EU
countries, the working age population will actually rise, and by
around half a million in the UK, France and Spain. However, as
with the population aged under 20, the working age population will
fall as a proportion of the total population in each EU country apart
from Ireland over the next 25 years although only marginally so in
Spain and Portugal (see Figure 8(b)). Under the baseline scenario,
the proportion of the population that is aged 20-59 in 2020 would
vary from over 54 per cent in Austria to just under 50 per cent in
Finland. In the UK, persons aged 20-59 would comprise nearly 53
per cent of the population in 2020, just above the EU average.
Persons aged 20-59
Figure 7 shows that the population of working age (as
approximated by the 20-59 age group) has risen by about one
quarter since 1960 to its present size of 206 million. Under the
baseline scenario, the total would not change greatly over the next
twenty years, but it would then start to decline, falling to almost
170 million by 2050. Even under the high scenario, combining
high levels of fertility and net migration, the working age
population would be no greater in 2050 than it is now.
As the baby boom generation grows older and the smaller cohorts
born in the 1970s and 1980s enter the younger working ages, the
working age population will become markedly older, as shown by
Figure 9. In 1995, some 45 per cent of the 20-59 age group in the
EU were aged over 40. However, under the baseline scenario, in
twenty years time this will have risen to nearly 55 per cent.
Thereafter, as the large cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s pass the age
of 60, the working age population will get slightly younger. Even
Table 4
Projected population of individual countries, 1995-2050
millions
1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
371.6
377.0
385.4
388.2
387.2
380.8
367.7
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
8.0
10.1
5.2
5.1
58.0
8.1
10.3
5.3
5.2
59.2
8.3
10.5
5.5
5.3
61.4
8.4
10.7
5.5
5.4
62.8
8.5
10.8
5.6
5.4
63.6
8.4
10.7
5.6
5.2
63.4
8.2
10.4
5.5
5.1
62.1
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
81.5
10.4
3.6
57.3
0.4
83.1
10.6
3.6
57.5
0.4
84.9
11.1
3.8
57.6
0.5
84.7
11.3
3.9
56.5
0.5
83.3
11.3
4.0
54.8
0.5
80.9
11.4
3.9
52.6
0.6
77.1
11.2
3.8
49.3
0.6
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
Start of population decline,
baseline scenario
1995
(a) Baseline scenario
EU15
Figure 5
15.4
9.9
39.2
8.8
58.5
15.9
10.0
39.5
8.9
59.3
16.7
10.3
40.4
9.2
60.1
17.2
10.5
40.3
9.5
61.0
17.7
10.7
39.6
9.8
61.6
17.8
10.8
38.7
9.9
60.9
17.6
10.7
36.7
10.1
59.3
2000
2005
2010
2015
2000
2020
2050
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
371.6
380. 5
373. 8
416.4
363. 8
444. 8
303.5
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
8.0
10.1
5.2
5.1
58.0
8.2
10.3
5.4
5.2
59.7
8.1
10.2
5.3
5.1
58.8
9.2
11.3
6.0
5.8
66.9
7.9
9.9
5.1
5.0
59.3
10.3
12.1
6.7
6.2
73.9
6.6
8.4
4.3
4.2
52.3
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
81.5
10.4
3.6
57.3
0.4
84.0
10.7
3.7
58.0
0.4
82.3
10.5
3.6
56.9
0.4
91.6
11.9
4.2
60.3
0.6
79.1
10.4
3.7
52.8
0.4
94.9
13.0
4.8
59.6
0.7
63.4
9.1
3.1
40.5
0.4
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
15.4
9.9
39.2
8.8
58.5
16.0
10.1
39.9
9.0
59.8
15.7
9.9
39.2
8.9
58.8
18.3
11.3
43.5
10.2
65.3
15.8
9.8
37.8
8.8
58.0
20.7
12.6
45.1
12.2
71.9
13.7
8.6
30.5
8.0
50.5
EU 15
O f f i c e
f o r
Italy (2008)
••
Germany (2013)
Spain (2014)
2020
(b) High and low scenarios
1995
•
2025
2030
2035
2040
•
•
••
•
•
••
•
EU15 (2023)
Finland (2026)
Austria (2029)
UK, Ireland (2030)
Belgium (2032)
Denmark, France (2034)
Netherlands (2037)
Greece (2038)
Portugal (2040)
2045
2050
N a t i o n a l
•
Luxembourg & Sweden (still
increasing at 2050)
S t a t i s t i c s
25
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 6
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Actual and projected population of EU countries, baseline scenario, 1960–2050
(b) smaller EU countries
(a) larger EU countries
90
12
Projected
Germany
80
Projected
Greece
11
Portugal
Belgium
10
Sweden
70
9
France
8
60
50
Italy
6
Denmark
5
Spain
40
Austria
7
Millions
Millions
UK
Finland
4
30
Ireland
3
Netherlands
20
2
1
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
1960
2050
Luxembourg
1970
1980
1990
2000
Figure 7
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Year
Actual and projected population of the EU15 by age, 1960–2050
(a) baseline scenario
450
(c) low scenario
(b) high scenario
Projected
80+
Millions
400
350
80+
300
60–79
60–79
80+
250
60–79
40–59
40–59
200
150
40–59
20-39
20-39
100
20-39
0–19
50
0–19
0–19
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1995
Year
26
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
2005
2015 2025
Year
S t a t i s t i c s
2035
2045
1995
2005
2015
2025
Year
2035
2045
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
under the old scenario (combining high life expectancy with low
fertility and migration), the proportion aged 40-59 would not rise
above 55 per cent. As for individual countries, under the baseline
scenario, persons aged 40-59 will outnumber those aged 20-39 in
every EU country in 2020, whereas the opposite was true in 1995.
Persons aged 60 and over
In contrast to the population at younger ages, the number of older
people is set to increase markedly in the early part of the next
century. Figure 7 shows that the number of people aged over 60 has
been increasing more or less continuously for many years. The rate
of increase is likely to accelerate when the large cohorts born
following the Second World War start to enter this age group and
the increase will not level off until the smaller 1970s and 1980s
cohorts start to reach the age of 60. Under the baseline scenario,
the total EU population aged 60 and over would increase by one
third from 76.5 million in 1995 to over 100 million by 2020,
eventually levelling off at around 125 million in the 2030s. The
increase in the very elderly (those aged 80 and over) would be even
more dramatic: a rise of 50 per cent from 14.4 million in 1995 to
about 22 million in 2020, increasing further to reach 35 million by
the middle of the next century. Germany alone would have 5
million people aged over 80 in 2020. Even in the low scenario,
with its relatively modest assumptions of improving life
expectancy, there would be over 100 million people aged 60 and
above and over 25 million aged 80 and above by the middle of the
next century.
Table 5 shows that all countries will experience large increases in
the number of people over working age. Under the baseline
scenario, Germany would have 6.5 million more people aged over
60 in 2020 than in 1995. France would have an extra 5 million
while the numbers in Italy and the UK would increase by
approaching 4 million. Numbers would grow by over 25 per cent
over the next twenty-five years in each EU country and by over 50
per cent in the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Finland and Ireland.
Even under the low scenario, all countries except Portugal would
experience an increase of over 20 per cent.
As a result of these changes, the proportion of older people in the
population will also grow considerably as shown by Figure 8 (c)
and (d). Persons aged above 60 currently comprise 20.6 per cent of
the total EU population, but, under the baseline scenario, this
would grow to nearly 27 per cent by 2020. This proportion would
Table 5
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
range from over 29 per cent in Italy to under 22 per cent in Ireland.
As for the very elderly, persons aged over 80 accounted for nearly
4 per cent of the total population in 1995 but this will rise to about
5.5 per cent by 2020 with this proportion varying from nearly 7 per
cent in Italy to just over 3 per cent in Ireland. The UK would have
25.5 per cent of its population aged over 60 in 2020, one of the
smaller proportions in the EU, and about 5 per cent aged over 80.
D E P E N D E N C Y R AT I O S
The different trends in prospect for the numbers of people at
different ages will have a significant effect on the future proportion
of dependants in the population. In this article, we use the number
of persons under 20, or 60 and above, (or the sum of the two) per
100 persons aged 20-59 to give a comparable measure of
dependency ratios across EU countries. This differs from the
normal definition used in reporting GAD national projections2
where young dependants are taken to be those below age 16 when
compulsory full-time education ends, and old dependants are taken
to be those above state retirement age, currently 65 for men and 60
for women. There is, of course, an inevitable arbitrariness about
any such definition. In reality, full-time education ends, and
retirement starts, at a range of ages, and practices will also differ
between countries.
Nevertheless, it is clear from Figure 10, that the ratio of dependants
to persons of working age, which has been falling over the past
twenty years, will start to rise rapidly from early in the next
century. The ratio of young people to those of working age, which
has fallen markedly since 1970, would actually fall slightly further
under the baseline scenario, but this would be far outweighed by
the rapid increase in the number of older dependants. In 1995, there
were 37 persons aged 60 and over for every 100 persons aged 2059, but in the baseline scenario this would rise continuously to over
50 per 100 in 2020 and to over 70 per 100 by the 2040s.
The future ‘old dependency ratio’ is, however, subject to a wide
range of uncertainty. In the old scenario (where high life
expectancies boost the numbers of the elderly, but low fertility and
migration reduce the numbers at working ages) the ratio would rise
to 55 per 100 by 2020 and to 90 per 100 by 2050. Ratios would be
much smaller in the young scenario, but even here they would rise
to nearly 60 per 100 in the 2030s. The ‘young dependency ratio’
Projected population of the EU15 by broad age-group, baseline scenario, 1995 - 2050
millions
0–19
1995
20–39
2020
2050
40–59
60 and over
1995
2020
2050
1995
2020
2050
1995
2020
2050
EU 15
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
88.9
1.9
2.4
1.2
1.3
15.2
80.2
1.7
2.3
1.2
1.2
14.1
71.3
1.6
2.2
1.2
1.1
12.9
113.4
2.6
3.0
1.6
1.4
17.3
92.6
2.1
2.6
1.4
1.3
15.4
82.2
1.9
2.4
1.3
1.2
14.1
92.8
2.0
2.5
1.4
1.4
14.0
110.9
2.5
2.9
1.5
1.4
16.5
90.6
2.1
2.5
1.4
1.3
14.7
76.5
1.6
2.2
1.0
1.0
11.6
104.5
2.2
2.9
1.4
1.5
16.8
123.7
2.7
3.3
1.6
1.6
20.4
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
17.6
2.6
1.2
12.3
0.1
15.9
2.4
1.0
10.6
0.1
13.8
2.3
0.8
8.5
0.1
25.3
3.1
1.0
17.6
0.1
20.3
2.6
1.1
12.2
0.1
17.3
2.5
0.9
10.2
0.1
21.8
2.6
0.8
14.6
0.1
24.9
3.2
1.0
17.3
0.1
19.4
2.7
0.9
12.3
0.1
16.9
2.2
0.5
12.7
0.1
23.5
3.0
0.8
16.5
0.1
26.6
3.7
1.2
18.3
0.2
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
3.8
2.6
9.8
2.2
14.8
3.8
2.4
8.1
2.2
13.3
3.7
2.2
6.4
2.3
12.3
5.0
3.0
12.4
2.4
17.5
4.2
2.6
9.1
2.4
15.4
4.1
2.5
7.6
2.5
13.7
4.0
2.4
8.9
2.3
14.2
4.8
3.1
12.6
2.4
16.8
4.4
2.7
9.0
2.5
14.5
2.7
2.0
8.1
1.9
12.0
4.5
2.5
10.5
2.5
15.6
5.3
3.4
13.7
2.9
18.8
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
27
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 8
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Percentage of population in broad age groups in each country, baseline scenario, 1995 and 2020
(b) Percentage aged 20–59
Ireland
Austria
Sweden
Spain
France
Portugal
Portugal
Germany
Luxembourg
Ireland
Country by rank order in 2020
Country by rank order in 2020
(a) Percentage aged under 20
Denmark
Finland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Greece
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
EU15
Denmark
Netherlands
Belgium
Italy
EU15
Greece
Austria
Belgium
Spain
France
Germany
Sweden
Finland
Italy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 30
40
Percentage
(d) Percentage aged 80 and over
Italy
Italy
Finland
Greece
Germany
Germany
Belgium
France
EU15
Belgium
Country by rank order in 2020
Country by rank order in 2020
(c) Percentage aged 60 and over
France
Greece
Sweden
Spain
Netherlands
Denmark
60
(millions of persons in 2020)
(3.8)
(0.7)
(5.0)
(3.6)
(0.6)
(2.3)
Spain
(21.8)
EU15
Sweden
(0.5)
Finland
(0.3)
United Kingdom
(3.0)
Luxembourg
(0.02)
(0.4)
Austria
Austria
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Portugal
(0.5)
Portugal
Denmark
(0.2)
Ireland
Ireland
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
(0.8)
(0.1)
0
1
Percentage
2020
Where % falls between 1995 and 2020
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
2
3
4
Percentage
1995
28
50
Percentage
S t a t i s t i c s
1995
2020
Where % rises between 1995 and 2020
5
6
7
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
has a rather smaller margin of uncertainty attached to it for two
reasons. Firstly, because mortality has only a small effect at ages
below 60 and secondly, because any changes in fertility levels will
affect both the numbers of young people and (after twenty years)
the numbers at working ages.
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Portugal changes in the proportions of old and young dependants
will almost balance. In the year 2020, under the baseline scenario,
the overall ratio would vary from 101 dependants per 100 persons
aged 20-59 in Finland to 84 per 100 in Austria. Finland is the only
country in 2020 where persons under 20, or 60 and over, would
outnumber persons of working age but, as Table 6 shows, this
would be the case throughout the EU by 2050 under the baseline
scenario. At 2020, the United Kingdom is projected to have slightly
more young dependants than the EU average, but fewer old
dependants.
Figure 11 shows that the overall dependency ratio will rise in every
EU country except Ireland over the next twenty-five years. In
Ireland, a marked fall in the proportion of young dependants will
outweigh an increase in older dependants, while in Spain and
Table 6
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
Actual and projected dependants per 100 persons aged 20-59, 1995-2050
Total dependants
Dependants aged 0–19
Baseline
1995
Dependants aged 60 and over
2020
2020
2050
1995
Young
2020
Baseline
Old
1995
Young
Baseline
Old
EU15
80.2
91
113
43.1
46
39
34
37.1
47
51
55
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
75.6
83.1
76.9
79.8
85.7
84
96
91
101
97
107
111
101
109
116
40.9
44.1
41.7
45.9
48.6
43
47
47
51
51
37
42
42
44
44
31
36
36
39
39
34.7
39.0
35.2
34.0
37.1
44
49
44
54
49
47
54
49
57
53
52
58
54
61
56
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
73.1
85.0
96.9
77.7
75.1
87
94
88
92
88
110
114
114
119
102
37.3
45.2
66.8
38.2
41.6
42
46
55
42
48
35
42
47
36
42
31
35
42
30
36
35.8
39.8
30.1
39.5
33.5
47
48
37
52
41
52
52
41
56
46
57
56
45
60
52
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
72.6
85.1
83.9
87.7
84.6
91
86
86
98
90
106
108
121
105
110
42.0
48.4
46.0
46.3
46.7
46
47
45
50
48
42
42
37
45
41
36
36
32
39
38
30.5
36.7
38.0
41.4
37.9
45
40
45
49
45
50
44
48
53
48
54
48
52
58
52
Figure 10
Figure 9
Actual and projected population aged 40–59 as
percentage of all persons aged 20-59, EU15, 1960–2050
Actual and projected dependency ratios, EU15,
1960–2050
120
60
Projected
Projected
Baseline
Total
dependency
ratio
Old
Percentage
Baseline
50
Young
45
Dependants per 100 persons aged 20-59
100
55
Old
80
Baseline
60+/20–59
60
Young
Young
40
Baseline
Old
0–19/20–59
20
40
0
1960
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Year
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
29
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
S U M M A RY
Figure 11
Due to the inherent unpredictability of demographic behaviour,
population projections are subject to uncertainty and this
uncertainty grows with time. However, many future developments
are determined, to a greater or lesser extent, by the age structure of
the population alive now and can therefore be predicted with some
confidence. For example, the influence of the large cohorts born
following the Second World War followed by the much smaller
cohorts born in the 1970s and 1980s will have a considerable
influence on demographic trends in the first half of the next
century. The rapid ageing of the working age population over the
next twenty years, for example, is an inevitable consequence of
these past birth patterns.
France
Belgium
Country by rank order in 2020
Greece
N a t i o n a l
Denmark
EU15
United Kingdom
Germany
Portugal
Spain
Austria
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dependants per 100 persons aged 20–59
Under 20
60 and over
References
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
9.
f o r
Netherlands
Ireland
8.
O f f i c e
Italy
Luxembourg
1.
30
1995
Sweden
The prospects for Europe contrast vividly with those for other areas
of the world, particularly the least developed countries. There,
continuing high levels of fertility will inevitably lead to strong
population growth well into the next century. As a result, Europe’s
share of the world population will continue to fall.
In common with all other EU countries, the number of older people
in the UK will increase considerably as will the size of this group
relative to that of the working age population. Although these will
be very significant changes, the outlook for this country is far from
exceptional. In Italy, for example, the effects of population ageing
will be much more dramatic. By 2020, Italy will have the smallest
proportion of young people, the largest proportion of older people
and the oldest working age population in the EU. However, at
2020, the UK, compared with the EU as a whole, will have
proportionately fewer older people, a slightly younger working age
population and a below average ‘old dependency ratio’.
2020
Finland
Coupled with continuing improvements in life expectancy, the
ageing of the baby boom generation will also lead to a rapid
growth in the size of the elderly population and consequent
increases in dependency ratios. And unless fertility increases
considerably from current levels, the ageing of these large cohorts
will also lead to deaths far exceeding births during the first half of
the next century. Even net migration at the highest levels
experienced in the past would not offset this natural decrease and
so the population of the EU looks virtually certain to peak in size
sometime during the next fifty years.
Within the European Union, the United Kingdom is assumed to
have slightly above average fertility, around average life
expectancy and, relative to the size of the population, below
average levels of inward migration. If the assumptions for the
baseline scenario are borne out in practice, the UK’s population
would continue rising until about the year 2030.
Dependents per 100 persons aged 20–59, baseline
scenario, 1995 and 2020
S t a t i s t i c s
Demographic Statistics 1997. Eurostat (1997).
National population projections: 1994-based. ONS Series
PP2 no. 20 (1996).
See Population Trends 89 ‘In brief’. The Stationery Office
(1997).
World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Annex
Tables. United Nations (1996).
Demographic Statistics 1996. Eurostat (1996).
De Jong A. Long-term fertility scenarios for the European
Economic Area. Eurostat (forthcoming).
Van Hoorn W and De Beer J. Long-term mortality scenarios
for the European Economic Area. Eurostat (forthcoming).
De Jong A and Visser H. Long-term international migration
scenarios for the European Economic Area. Eurostat (1997).
International migration: 1995. ONS Series MN no. 22. The
Stationery Office (1997).
8990
89 0|| | SWu
W
i ntmte eer rr 111 999 999 777
im
n
TT rrr eee nnn ddd sss
PPP ooo ppp uuu lll aaa ttt iii ooo nnn T
1991 population estimates for
areas smaller than districts
This article describes the construction of
population estimates for mid-1991 for electoral
Stephen Simpson,
Bradford City Council and Centre for Census
and Survey Research, University of Manchester
Rachel Cossey,
Manchester City Council
Ian Diamond,
Department of Social Statistics,
University of Southampton
wards in England and Wales and postal sectors in
Scotland. It shows how earlier work adjusting
1991 census figures at national and local authority
level for undercount and other factors has been
extended to smaller areas in a way that produces
estimates which are consistent with the estimates
for larger areas. Estimates for smaller areas are
needed to calculate employment, health and
other indices, and as a starting point for
population estimates between census years.
INTRODUCTION
Population statistics in Census year are generally estimates
incorporating important adjustments to raw census counts. In
addition to a small adjustment to move the time reference from
census day to mid-year, a total of 1.2 million was added in 1991 to
represent those people missed by the census. The number of
missing residents and their distribution within Britain relied on
demographic analysis, since the Census Validation Survey had
failed to identify the majority of those missed. While an
undercount of 1.2 million represents only 2.2 per cent of residents
over Great Britain as a whole, it was concentrated in certain age
groups and areas; for example 20 per cent was added to the census
count for men in their twenties across all cities in Britain.
The third adjustment transferred students from their vacation
address as measured in the census, to their term-time address as
required by population estimates. Although the net, national, effect
of transferring students to term-time address is small, the gross
number of students in their teens and early twenties moved from
one district to another is of the same order as under-enumeration at
those ages (see Figure 1). These adjustments for local authorities
have been described in detail elsewhere.1
While measurement of non-response was difficult for local
authority areas, there was still less evidence on which to base the
allocation of non-response for a district to small areas within it.
ONS (then OPCS2) produced population estimates for wards in
England and Wales by distributing the difference between census
and population estimates for a district to each ward pro rata to the
census count in each ward. These preliminary estimates, termed
‘even-spread’, were derived for the purpose of immediately making
estimates of mortality rates for electoral wards.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
31
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
will make clear the extent to which this is possible, and are
therefore very important to us. When we ask if an adjustment
is acceptable we are asking if you think its results are at least
as plausible as other feasible adjustments. We are not asking
you to say that it is itself definitely the best adjustment
possible: there will usually be more than one acceptable
adjustment. Please use your personal and professional
judgement; we rely on your knowledge of the areas involved,
and your understanding of what might have caused nonresponse in them, and where students live and come from.
Many users were convinced that the required adjustments to the
census were not distributed evenly between local areas. This would
clearly be the case for the transfer of students to their term-time
address around educational establishments. In addition, response
rates were likely to vary within a district according to the difficulty
of enumeration of each area, just as ONS and GRO(S) had
estimated for districts themselves. However, the absence of direct
evidence for the extent of census non-response locally, made it
hard to justify specific adjustments to the census.
The Estimating with Confidence project judged that adjustments
would be valid if they were plausible, acceptable, and were
consistent with the district estimates which incorporate evidence
from the Census Validation Survey and demographic analysis. The
project undertook wide consultation on alternatives with this aim.3
This article summarises that consultation and describes the method
finally used by the Estimating with Confidence project to produce
population estimates for electoral wards in England and Wales and
postal sectors in Scotland. These areas are described as small areas
unless qualified otherwise. The estimates are available for each five
year age group to 85-89, and 90 and over, for males and females
separately. They have been used in government and academic
research, as described at the end of the article.
The responses were in general very favourable to uneven
distribution of non-response and students within a district. For
example,
The Estimating with Confidence adjustments are definitely to
be preferred to the even-spread estimates, which are
nonsensical in areas with concentrations of armed forces or
students, and take no account of the socio-economic
characteristics of an area in relation to under enumeration.
There were nonetheless comments on anomalous areas which led
to fine tuning of the population estimates. Finally, six adjustments
to the census were made as in Table 1. Each is discussed here in
turn, with attention to alternatives.
C O N S U LTAT I O N A N D A LT E R N AT I V E S
Consultation took place during 1994 through academic seminars, a
steering group of local and central government staff and, most
importantly, discussion with thirteen local authority staff in eight
counties. These local demographers from planning, development
and research functions, were not only familiar with census data and
population estimates, but could also test results against their
expectations by taking into account the characteristics of the local
areas. They were provided with several alternative population
estimates for the wards in their county and notes which stressed
that:
It is our hope that a single set of procedures for adjusting the
1991 census will be acceptable in all areas; your comments
Table 16
Table
In the discussion it was accepted that population estimates for the
areas within a district should sum to the estimate made by ONS or
GRO(S) for that district, at each age and sex. A nationally
acceptable set of estimates would have been hard to achieve
without this starting point.
THE ADJUSTMENTS FOR STUDENTS
The census, while counting students as resident at their vacation
address, also asked their term-time address, and recorded them
again at their term-time address as a visitor if present there on
census night. However, a transfer of students directly from one
address to another is not possible from census output. Instead the
number of resident students counted by the census at a vacation
Adjustments to small area census counts to derive a mid-1991 population
Adjustment
Indicator used to distribute the district adjustment to local areas
Students removed from their home
address area because they study elsewhere
Student residents with term time address elsewhere, from census table S10. Separately for those
aged under 18 and 18+, sex disaggregated according to table S37.
Students added to their term-time address area
Student non-residents with term time address at this address, from census table S10. Separately for
those ages 15–17 and 18+, sex disaggregated according to table S37.
For those aged under 15, often boarding pupils in preparatory schools. The number of visitors in
educational establishments minus the number of student visitors aged 16+, so long as the number
of visitors aged 5–14 is 5 or more. Uses tables S03, S10, S02 and S11.
Timing, census day to 30 June 1991
Pro-rata to census resident counts, from census table S02.
Armed forces non-response
Armed forces residents enumerated, from table S92. For areas where the district armed forces nonresponse was more than 15% of the estimated armed forces population, the excess was distributed
according to the number of armed forces present on bases, from table S03.
All other non-response
Imputed residents, from table S01
and
Unemployed males aged 20–34, from table S08.
Data modification
Distributed equally to each local area.
The small area census counts for each age and sex group are taken from local statistics table S02. The above adjustments to those counts and the derived populations are constrained to sum to the ONS and GRO(S)
district adjustments for student residence, timing, armed forces non-response and other non-response, and to the ONS and GRO(S) district mid-1991 population estimates, at each age and sex.
32
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
address which was not their term-time address was used as an
indicator of the number of students who should be removed from
an area for the population estimates.
Similarly the number of student visitors at their term-time address
was used as an indicator of the number of term-time students to be
added to that area. These indicators determined the share of
students removed and added out of the total for the district in
which the small area was located, already estimated by ONS and
GRO(S) for each age-sex group.
The procedure is practical but approximate for various reasons.
Conceptually, the district adjustment caters for students studying
outside the district of their vacation address, and thus the procedure
for small areas misses the moves of students from vacation to termtime address within a district. Such numbers are small in Britain
compared with the moves between districts.
Where student halls of residence were closed during the vacation at
the time of the 1991 Census, the procedure outlined would
underestimate the number of term-time students in the area. No
solution was proposed to this problem, which suggests that the
transfer of students should be rather more skewed than that which
was made.
Consultation highlighted that boarding schools of pupils under 16
required extra procedures. For these ages only, additional
information was used on visitors in educational establishments,
imputing an age structure for them from other census tables. The
revised procedure gave better results in the two test counties with
significant numbers of boarding school students.
TIMING
The timing adjustment for a district is the sum of the effects of
ageing, births, deaths, and migration during the ten weeks between
census day (21st April) and 30 June 1991 estimated by ONS and
GRO(S). While indicators of births and deaths could feasibly have
been sought for each small area, the small size of the adjustment
did not justify the effort involved. The district timing adjustment at
each age- and sex-group has been allocated to small areas pro rata
to the number of residents in the area in that age- and sex-group
counted in the census. No attempt was made to identify small areas
where the timing adjustment would have been atypical due to very
local demographic trends.
ARMED FORCES NON-RESPONSE
The ONS and GRO(S) estimates of the census non-response
amongst armed forces personnel is based on reports from the
Ministry of Defence, and indicates a wide range from under 10 per
cent to over 50 per cent extra to the enumerated armed forces. This
is consistent with troop movements temporarily leaving some
bases, leading to major under-enumeration in the districts that
contain them. Some of those consulted felt strongly that armed
forces personnel on bases were more likely to be omitted from
census counts than armed forces personnel in accommodation
outside bases.
For these reasons, the final local estimates make a distinction for
districts whose armed forces non-response was more than 15 per
cent of the estimated total (enumerated and missed). The excess
above 15 per cent in these districts was distributed only to local
areas with defence establishments within them. Up to this point,
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
the district armed forces non-response was distributed according to
the total number of armed forces in each area, whether on or off
bases. The choice of 15 per cent is a little below the average 19 per
cent for all districts with armed forces non-response, but it remains
somewhat arbitrary.
A L L OT H E R N O N - R E S P O N S E : AG E S 0 – 4 4
This was the largest source of adjustments, representing 0.99
million people missed from census tables. It caused the most
discussion regarding its distribution to small areas within Districts.
It was generally agreed that an even geographical spread of nonresponse was unlikely at these ages, but considerable discussion
centred on eleven proposed indicators of this non-response. After
implementing the options, the subsequent consultation was crucial
to the choice between them.
Three direct measures of non-response in small areas were
proposed: registered births divided by infants under one
enumerated by the census; registered claimants compared to census
counts of unemployed; and sex ratios. Each gave a geographical
pattern which was generally in accordance with the pattern
expected by local demographers. However they could not be used
because too often they gave rise to major anomalies. This was due
to (a) the differences in definitions in the two data sources and (b)
errors when allocating postcoded administrative records to small
areas.
The number of unmarried residents aged 20-34 was thought to
indicate areas with many mobile, perhaps homeless, perhaps
jobless, people who were most likely to be missed from the census
count of residents. It was a significant predictor of district nonresponse.4 However the lack of variation between small areas in
this indicator did not find acceptance with local demographers’
expectations of the non-response, especially in urban areas. Five
other proposed indicators of non-response were rejected as not
commanding sufficient plausibility.
The number of male unemployed aged 20-34 is a summary
indicator of the social conditions in an area. Such areas are again
likely to have many mobile people – perhaps homeless or jobless –
likely to be missed from census counts. In consultation it was felt
to provide an acceptable and plausible distribution of nonresponse, with few extreme values. However, there was a concern
that areas with low real coverage may have unrealistically low
counts of unemployed in the census, leading to indicated nonresponse lower than merited.
The number of imputed residents in the census counts – based on
reports of the enumerator about households which did not return a
census form – indicates uncooperative households, mobile people
who are difficult to contact, homeless or transient households who
feel a census about permanent residence is not relevant to them,
and poor enumerators. Such areas are likely to also have the same
kinds of people within responding households. These were the
arguments for using the count of imputed records to estimate the
location of missing people who were not imputed. Consultation
found support for the indicator, but from some areas a scepticism
about its skewness – high proportions of non-response were
directed to a small number of wards within each district – and
concerns in particular areas about armed forces bases, student areas
and second homes which were felt to have wrongly high rates of
imputation.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
33
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
From census to population estimate: sum of adjustments to local authority census counts, Great Britain
Figure 1
250
Males
200
Non-response excluding armed forces
150
Students added
Thousands
100
50
0
Adjustments for armed forces
-50
Adjustments for timing
Students removed
-100
-150
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age group
250
Females
200
150
Thousands
100
Students added
50
Non-response excluding armed forces
0
-50
Adjustments for timing
Adjustments for armed forces
Students removed
-100
-150
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
Age group
To some extent our final decision to combine the last two
indicators – imputed records and unemployed – favours the
opinions of those in districts that suffered the most undercount.
Thus the problem of imputed residents in holiday accommodation
was raised by mainly rural areas where there was less undercount
to allocate. Urban areas were less keen on indicators such as the
number of unmarried young residents because it seemed to
wrongly give too even a spread of undercount. Getting it right
where large numbers were involved was felt to be a reasonable
approach.
•
Large errors in either indicator would be dampened by the other.
•
The difference between the two indicators gives an indication of
the uncertainty in estimating the population.5
The decision to combine the results for more than one indicator has
several other advantages:
Non-response at these ages was estimated to be very small by ONS
and GRO(S) (see Figure 1). It was therefore distributed in the
simplest way – pro rata to existing residents enumerated in each
area.
•
The skewness of the imputation and the conservatism of the
unemployed indicator balance each other out to some extent.
34
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
On the other hand, the use of the mean of two indicators ensures a
lower variance than if either had been used on its own. The results
may under-estimate some extreme areas of non-response.
A L L OT H E R N O N - R E S P O N S E : A G E S 4 4 – 7 9
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
A L L OT H E R N O N - R E S P O N S E : AG E S 8 0 A N D
OV E R
No satisfactory explanation has been found for the relatively large
number of very elderly people estimated by ONS to have been
missed from the census, amounting to 3 per cent of women aged
between 80 and 84 in England and Wales, and 6 per cent of those
aged over 85. One would expect them to be at home to respond to
enumerators’ calls, or at least evident sufficiently for them to be
imputed on the basis of enumerators’ reports. A hypothesis that
these were residents recently moved to institutions and counted
there as visitors, is discounted by the small number of such visitors
at institutions recorded by the census.3 It may be that very elderly
residents were included by imputation, but with incorrect age;
however there are no data to evaluate this hypothesis. With such
lack of both evidence and plausible, accepted hypotheses, nonresponse among the very elderly was distributed pro-rata to
existing residents enumerated in each area, as for non-response at
ages 45-79.
D ATA M O D I F I C AT I O N
A final very small adjustment was required because each census
count for an age-sex group in a small area has been randomly
modified before publication by the addition of 1, 0, or -1 to protect
Table 2
Examples of the construction of the population estimate
from the census
Males aged 20-24 in two wards of Bradford district
Census count of residents
Ilkley
University
419
1,233
Adjustments for:
Net student adjustment
-68
+783
Timing
+1
+2
0
0
(+31)
(+48)
+39
(+274)
(+192)
+233
0
0
EwC population estimate
391
2,250
Preliminary, even spread estimate
504
1,482
Armed forces non-response
All other non-response
(a) According to unemployment
(b) According to imputed residents
Mean, 1⁄2(a)+1⁄2(b)
Modification
Table 3
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
confidentiality of the stored census data. In order to maintain
consistency with district estimates, the difference between the
district (unmodified) census count and the sum of the small areas’
modified counts was distributed evenly between the areas in the
district.
EXAMPLE
Table 2 gives an example of the construction of the population
estimate for males aged 20-24 in two extreme wards of one district.
The addition for timing and for data modification are small in both
wards. The student adjustments add 783 residents to the population
of University ward, but a deduction is made to the count in Ilkley
ward, which is a prosperous area where many students have their
parental home. No armed forces were estimated by ONS to be
missed from this district, and thus no adjustment was made to any
local area within the district.
The non-response estimated by ONS for the district was distributed
on the basis of unemployment and imputed residents, and the mean
of two estimates applied. In this case the two estimates both
indicated a relatively large undercount in University ward but only
a small one in Ilkley ward. The highly skewed distribution of
student residences and to a lesser but significant extent that of nonresponse, contribute to a population estimate overall 82 per cent
higher than the census count for University ward, but 7 per cent
lower for Ilkley. In contrast the preliminary even-spread estimate
produces a population estimate 20.2 per cent higher than the census
count for both wards, the same as the difference estimated by ONS
for Bradford district as a whole for males aged 20-24.
EXTREME ADJUSTMENTS
Table 3 shows the district and small area where the most extreme
adjustments were made, for each adjustment in turn. The transfer of
students and the non-response among armed forces are more
concentrated geographically than non-response. Both produce
extreme adjustments that double the population as counted by the
census. In the case of one Oxford ward the transfer of students
increases the census count of residents nearly five times. In
comparison, the greatest impact of estimated non-response in a
single ward is to increase the census by 14 per cent.
Table 4 shows the district and small area with largest total
adjustment, within each county (and region in Scotland) as
constituted in 1991. These are the areas where use of the census
count as a population estimate would be most misleading.
Size of adjustments to the Census: Great Britain, extreme Districts, extreme small areas
Adjustment
National total, 000s
% of census
Extreme districts
Extreme small areas
Timing
44.1
0.1%
Max: 0.6% Three Rivers
Min: -5.1% City of London
Max: 1.5% Postal sector DD9 7, Kincardine & Deeside
Min: -7.9% Queenhithe ward, City of London
Student transfer
65.4
0.1%
Max: 13.2% Oxford
Min: -2.5% Isles of Scilly
Max: 473.8% Central ward, Oxford district
Min: -18.0% Postal sector KA2 9, Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Armed forces non-response
46.0
0.1%
Max: 6.7% Forest Heath, Suffolk
Min: 0% various districts
Max: 79.8% Heyford ward, Cherwell District
Min: 0% various districts
All other non-response
1,162.2
2.1%
Max: 4.9% Cambridge
Min: 0.7% Skye & Lochalsh
Max: 13.8% 41AN, Glasgow district
Min 0.0% Postal sector G81 1, Cumnock & Doon Valley
Total adjustments
1,317.7
2.4%
Max: 18.4% Oxford
Min: -0.7% Isles of Scilly
Max: 476.1% Central ward, Oxford district
Min: -16.9% Postal sector KA2 9, Kilmarnock & Loudoun
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
35
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 4
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
From Census to population estimate: largest district and small area adjustments to the total population, within each county and
region of Great Britain, 1991
County, Region
District with largest
adjustment
Small area with largest adjustment
(Found within this District:)
Inner London
Outer London
Westminster,City of
Kingston upon Thames
%
7.4
3.4
Bloomsbury
St.Mark’s
%
30.5
12.1
Camden
Kingston upon Thames
%
6.6
3.4
Greater Manchester
Merseyside
South Yorkshire
Tyne And Wear
West Midlands
West Yorkshire
Manchester
Liverpool
Sheffield
Newcastle upon Tyne
Birmingham
Leeds
8.3
6.3
5.6
7.2
4.7
5.4
Hulme
Arundel
Broomhill
Moorside
Wainbody
Headingley
30.5
24.7
34.4
42.1
15.8
44.4
Manchester
Liverpool
Sheffield
Newcastle upon Tyne
Coventry
Leeds
8.3
6.3
5.6
7.2
3.8
5.4
Avon
Bedfordshire
Berkshire
Buckinghamshire
Cambridgeshire
Cheshire
Cleveland
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly
Cumbria
Derbyshire
Bath
North Bedfordshire
Reading
Milton Keynes
Cambridge
Crewe and Nantwich
Middlesbrough
Caradon
South Lakeland
Derby
6.8
1.9
5.7
1.6
17.5
2.1
4.0
2.1
2.1
3.0
Devon
Dorset
Durham
East Sussex
Essex
Gloucestershire
Hampshire
Hereford and Worcester
Hertfordshire
Humberside
Exeter
Bournemouth
Durham
Brighton
Southend-on-Sea
Cheltenham
Portsmouth
Worcester
Welwyn Hatfield
Kingston Upon Hull
7.4
5.0
7.9
7.4
2.5
4.9
8.0
3.3
2.8
4.9
St David’s
Portman
Elvet
Stanmer
Felsted
Churn Valley
Queens
Priory
Hatfield West
Walkington
Isle of Wight
Kent
Lancashire
Leicestershire
Lincolnshire
Norfolk
Northamptonshire
Northumberland
North Yorkshire
Nottinghamshire
South Wight
Canterbury
Lancaster
Rutland
Lincoln
Norwich
Northampton
Wansbeck
York
Nottingham
1.7
5.1
5.1
5.5
3.4
5.2
2.2
1.4
5.8
6.6
Shanklin South
Blean Forest
Aighton,Bailey and C
Grange
Heath
Forehoe
Oundle
East Tynedale
Heslington
Lenton
Oxfordshire
Shropshire
Somerset
Staffordshire
Suffolk
Surrey
Warwickshire
West Sussex
Wiltshire
Oxford
Oswestry
Mendip
Stoke-on-Trent
Forest Heath
Runnymede
Warwick
Worthing
Kennet
18.4
2.9
2.3
3.5
8.8
4.1
1.8
2.0
1.7
Central
Colemere
Brue
Keele
Tunstall
Onslow
Stoneleigh
Turners Hill
Marlborough West
Clwyd
Dyfed
Gwent
Gwynedd
Mid Glamorgan
Powys
South Glamorgan
West Glamorgan
Colwyn
Ceredigion
Newport
Arfon
Taff-Ely
Radnor
Cardiff
Swansea
2.5
5.5
2.7
4.7
3.2
1.1
5.2
4.4
Rhiw
Lampeter
Pillgwenlly
Menai (Bangor)
Treforest
St.David Within
Cathays
Killay
10.4
70.2
7.3
81.9
41.8
18.6
30.6
20.2
Colwyn
Ceredigion
Newport
Arfon
Taff-Ely
Brecknock
Cardiff
Swansea
2.5
5.5
2.7
4.7
3.2
0.9
5.2
4.4
BORDERS
CENTRAL
DUMFRIES AND
GALL0WAY
FIFE
GRAMPIAN
HIGHLAND
LOTHIAN
STRATHCLYDE
TAYSIDE
ORKNEY
SHETLAND
WESTERN ISLES
ETTRICK AND LAUDERDALE
STIRLING
1.0
3.3
TD1 3 (part)
FK9 5 (part)
4.4
24.9
ETTRICK AND LAUDERDALE
STIRLING
1.0
3.3
NITHSDALE
NORTH EAST FIFE
ABERDEEN CITY
INVERNESS
EDINBURGH CITY
GLASGOW CITY
DUNDEE CITY
ORKNEY
SHETLAND
WESTERN ISLES
0.2
5.4
4.9
0.5
5.0
3.9
3.9
-0.2
0.1
-0.7
DG4 6 (part)
KY169
AB2 1
PH324
EH144
G2 3
PH172
KW151
ZE1 0
PA815
0.8
68.9
23.0
3.5
253.2
179.5
118.7
0.5
0.7
0.1
36
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
Bathwick
Cranfield
Eton North and South
Luffield Abbey
Newnham
College
Southfield
Torpoint
Windermere Applethwaite
Renishaw
S t a t i s t i c s
26.2
9.3
74.4
32.7
109.9
18.5
18.7
12.7
16.1
13.6
44.9
52.9
66.5
19.8
17.2
21.8
30.4
47.7
17.4
23.9
Bath
Mid Bedfordshire
Windsor and Maidenhead
Aylesbury Vale
Cambridge
Chester
Middlesbrough
Caradon
South Lakeland
North East Derbyshire
6.8
1.9
1.3
1.4
17.5
1.8
4.0
2.1
2.1
1.2
Exeter
North Dorset
Durham
Brighton
Uttlesford
Cotswold
Rushmoor
Malvern Hills
Welwyn Hatfield
East Yorks. Borough
7.4
3.2
7.9
7.4
1.1
1.5
5.1
2.0
2.8
1.3
7.3
28.1
57.9
38.3
8.4
32.7
9.4
9.4
126.5
29.5
South Wight
Canterbury
Ribble Valley
Oadby and Wigston
South Kesteven
South Norfolk
East Northamptonshire
Tynedale
Selby
Nottingham
1.7
5.1
0.7
2.9
1.1
1.4
1.4
0.3
3.4
6.6
476.1
35.7
30.3
58.0
79.9
28.2
22.9
22.2
25.9
Oxford
North Shropshire
South Somerset
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Suffolk Coastal
Guildford
Warwick
Mid Sussex
Kennet
18.4
1.4
1.2
2.3
6.1
3.3
1.8
1.2
1.7
NITHSDALE
NORTH EAST FIFE
ABERDEEN CITY
INVERNESS
EDINBURGH CITY
GLASGOW CITY
PERTH AND KINROSS
ORKNEY
SHETLAND
WESTERN ISLES
0.2
5.4
4.9
0.5
5.0
3.9
1.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.7
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i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Table 5
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Average 1991 Census count, size of each adjustment and final mid-1991 population for different types of area 10,512 wards in England and Wales
and postal sectors in Scotland
Number
of areas
All areas
Mean
census
population
Data
modification
Timing
Net
student
transfer
Non-response:
Armed
Other
forces
Mean
final
population
10,512
5,222
0
4
6
4
110
5,347
11
1,788
0
15
-7
0
11
1,807
658
2,326
4,945
3,033
0
0
4
4
426
-50
2
1
142
31
5,521
3,019
85
7,432
4,910
5,940
0
0
6
4
-36
-13
415
1
69
133
5,363
6,065
Areas where the largest adjustment was:
Timing
Net student transfer
Into area
Out of area
Non-response
Armed forces
Other
The largest change to the census count was usually found in a small
area near a university in each county or region that has one, but in
Cornwall, Hampshire and Suffolk the addition of armed forces in a
small area led to the greatest adjustment. Only in Gwent and the
Scottish Isles was ‘other non-response’ more extreme than armed
forces non-response or the student transfer.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EACH ADJUSTMENT
Table 5 shows the composition of the adjustments, averaged across
all small areas of Britain. The average census population of 5,222
is augmented by 4 between census day and mid-year 1991, by 6
students (reflecting the balance of students whose home residence
is outside Britain), and by an undercount of 4 armed forces and 110
other residents.
Of the 10,512 small areas, in well over two thirds the biggest
adjustment was that due to non-response other than armed forces,
adding an average of 133 residents to the area. In these small areas,
the other adjustments tended to be small.
Figure 2
The relationship between the student transfer and non-response is
of interest. The areas receiving a large transfer of students, mainly
around higher education institutions, include areas of very high
non-response, higher on average than the wards where nonresponse is the main adjustment. Student accommodation is often
within very poor inner city areas with high unemployment and
households that are difficult to enumerate. It is also likely that
some households imputed to have residents in the census were
wrongly imputed because they were entirely made up of students.
This could lead to an over-estimated population for the small area.
The estimates are likely to slightly under-estimate the population
around some student halls of residence that were not occupied on
census day, and over-estimate the population around areas of other
student accommodation.
For more than one fifth of small areas the biggest adjustment was
the subtraction of students with a term-time address elsewhere.
These were mainly outside city areas, with relatively small
populations. The eleven areas where the adjustment for timing was
most important are mainly in the City of London, with small
populations and very atypical age structures.
Non-response estimated for socially extreme areas
NON-RESPONSE AND SOCIAL COMPOSITION
Figure 2 shows the non-response as a percentage of the population
for those areas that are the 5 per cent most extreme of all ten
thousand small areas in Britain, according to several measures of
social composition. It shows that if the spatial distribution of nonresponse estimated by ONS, GRO(S) and in this article is correct,
then areas associated with poorer incomes and housing conditions
have approximately twice the non-response found in the average
area. This does not show the differential under-enumeration for
people with each characteristic which is likely to be still more than
twice in most cases6.
All areas
No car
Private renters
Social renters
Shared dwellings
I M PA C T O N A G E S T RU C T U R E ; C O M PA R I S O N
W I T H T H E P R E L I M I N A RY E S T I M AT E
Unemployed
Ethnic minorities
Figure 3(a) shows the size of the adjustment to the total population
and to each of five broad age groups. The total population in half of
all small areas was increased by at least 1 per cent, and in nearly
one tenth of areas by more than 5 per cent.
Crowded households
Lone parents
Population density
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Percentage
3
3.5
4
4.5
The changes mainly affect counts of those aged under 45, although
counts for the elderly are increased by more than 1 per cent in
nearly half the small areas, due to the undercount of very elderly
women. Although those aged 15-24 in some areas of students,
armed forces and cities were increased by large amounts, there
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
37
P o p u l a t i o n
Figure 3
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Output Areas in Scotland; however, small areas that contain special
enumeration districts in England and Wales are estimated with bias.
The impact of adjustments to census counts
(a) Estimating with Confidence population estimates compared
to Census counts
>10%
less
5–10%
less
1–5%
less
Same
(within
1%)
1–5%
more
5–10%
more
U S AG E
>10%
more
The population estimates described in this article have been used:
Key
•
by local authorities as the starting point for population estimates
updated annually since 1991, in order to measure demand for
services, and to serve as the population at risk when monitoring
local economic, social and health trends;
•
by ONS to rebase the population estimates series for local
authorities where boundaries have changed since 1991 – as in
North Yorkshire;
•
by the 2001 One Number Census team to investigate the properties
of estimated non-response; and
•
by various investigators to derive other adjusted datasets, for
example for each ethnic group by applying the adjustments for
non-response to census output at each sex, age and small area.
Total
0–14 yrs
15–24 yrs
25–44 yrs
45–64 yrs
65+ yrs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percentage
(b) Estimating with Confidence population estimates compared to
preliminary estimates
>10%
less
5–10%
less
1–5%
less
Same
(within
1%)
1–5%
more
5–10%
more
CONCLUSION
>10%
more
The population estimates presented for mid-1991 differ from
census counts of residents, and from a preliminary set of official
estimates, for most ages under 45. This is particularly true for
student areas, for areas with many armed forces, and for city areas
prone to census under-enumeration.
Key
Total
0–14 yrs
15–24 yrs
25–44 yrs
45–64 yrs
65+ yrs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percentage
were more areas where the population of that age was decreased,
often by substantial amounts, through the deduction of students
from their vacation address.
Figure 3(b) shows that the population estimates for the total
population and for age-groups under 45 were substantially different
from the ONS preliminary estimates for wards. Only in the older
age-groups did the population estimates allocate adjustments with
the same ‘even-spread’ approach and the same results as in the
even-spread estimates.
A VA I L A B I L I T Y
The population estimates described in this article are available
from the Estimating with Confidence project.7 Each adjustment as
well as the population estimate, for each age and sex and small area
within a county are provided on disc. The estimates and
adjustments are also available at the Data Archive at Essex
University. Academic users have on-line access via the MIDAS
service based at the University of Manchester.
The Estimating with Confidence project can also provide adjusted
counts for each enumeration district within a county, and for
38
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
The evidence that census response rates are not constant across
areas is sufficiently compelling to demand that the census is not
used as an estimate of the complete population in local areas
without adjustment appropriate to the characteristics of the local
area. However the equal lack of evidence about the response rates
in each area demanded that these adjustments were plausible and
acceptable to those with local knowledge but could not be
validated against any external measure. The methods of adjusting
1991 census data to derive a population estimate for areas within
districts have been as approximate as they have been necessary.
In specific cases, local authorities may be able to improve on the
estimates through local data sources on particular groups of
students or armed forces. The estimates described in this article
provide a generally acceptable, generally applicable set of
population figures for areas within districts, that are consistent with
government population estimates for those districts.
The research required to devise and agree these population
estimates, as well as the unknown biases and degree of
approximation involved, will be avoided in future if census
procedures can measure the characteristics of census nonrespondents in sufficient detail. The feasibility of this
measurement, and of adjusting the 2001 Census output for nonresponse before it is published, are currently under consideration
by ONS.
A c k n ow l e d g e m e n t s
The consultation described in this article relied heavily on the
interest and commitment of local authority research officers in
many counties of Britain. They also founded the Estimating with
Confidence initiative itself, which has examined the accuracy of
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
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methods of updating population estimates between census years.
The research and consultation described in this article was funded
by the Economic and Social Research Council (UK) under its
Analysis of Large and Complex Datasets programme, award
number H519255028. The estimates incorporate Crown copyright
data from the 1991 Census and from the ONS revised final
population estimates for districts.
1.
Key findings
• Population estimates differ from raw census counts by
substantial amounts for ages up to 44.
3.
• Census under-enumeration leads to the largest change
to census counts in most areas.
armed forces missing from census counts, provide the
most extreme changes to small area census counts.
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Notes
2.
• The transfer of students to term-time address, and
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
4.
5.
• Population estimates are preferred to raw census
counts in demographic applications.
6.
7.
O f f i c e
Population estimates for districts were published in Revised
Final mid-1991 population estimates for England and Wales,
OPCS Monitor PP1 93/2. The methodology used to derive
the estimates of non-response nationally and in each area is
outlined in Chapter 5 of 1991 Census Validation Survey:
coverage report, Patrick Heady, Stephen Smith and Vivienne
Avery, HMSO (1994).
Although the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys
(OPCS), completed the work on local authority population
estimates before it merged with the Central Statistical Office
to form the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 1 April
1996, for ease of reference, ONS is referred to throughout
this article. The General Register Office for Scotland
(GRO(S)) prepared the estimates for Scotland.
A full account of the consultation is reported in What was the
real population of local areas in mid-1991?. Estimating with
Confidence Working Paper 10. Part I: Development. Part II:
Results.
Regression-based analyses of non-response. Evi Samoli and
Ian Diamond. Estimating with Confidence Working Paper 5.
This property has been useful in evaluating the robustness of
using the results. See for example, A multi-level analysis of
the accuracy of age-specific Local Authority estimates of
population size for 1991. David Lunn, Stephen Simpson, Ian
Diamond and Liz Middleton. Population Studies
(forthcoming.)
Who is missed by a national census? CCSR working paper 2,
Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of
Manchester.
Estimating with Confidence, University of Southampton,
Department of Social Statistics, Southampton SO17 1BJ.
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
39
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
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W i n t e r 1 91 99 79 7
Incidence of Health of the Nation
cancers by social class
Joanna Brown, Seeromanie Harding,
Ann Bethune and Michael Rosato
ONS
Using data from the Longitudinal Study social class
patterns in the incidence of breast, lung and cervical
cancer in women, and lung cancer in men, for the
period 1976-89 were examined. At working ages,
15 to 64, there was very little difference in breast
cancer incidence between women in non-manual
and manual classes. At older ages the incidence was
INTRODUCTION
higher in women in non-manual classes than in
those in manual classes. Cervical cancer incidence
was considerably higher among younger women in
manual than in non-manual classes and these
differences were greatest in 1986-89. Among both
younger and older men and women, strong class
differentials in the incidence of lung cancer were
evident in 1986-89. These findings indicate the need
to target prevention strategies sensitively and to
ensure equitable access to services.
In England, the Health of the Nation1 initiative aims to reduce the
incidence of specific cancers within the next five to ten years
(Box 1). Most cancers are associated with strong socio-economic
gradients2, 3, 4 and it is important to monitor these differences if
reductions in incidence and mortality are to be achieved.
Measuring the incidence of cancers with a preventable
component, such as lung, cervical and malignant melanoma of the
skin, can help public health planners target prevention strategies
sensitively. For cancers such as breast, with no established
prevention strategy, differences in incidence among social groups
have implications for the provision and monitoring of services
such as screening programmes. Early detection of breast cancer is
important if chances of survival are to be equitable across all
social groups.
With twenty years of follow-up, the Longitudinal Study provides
an unique opportunity to measure socio-economic differences in
cancer incidence. The Longitudinal Study comprises a one per cent
representative sample of the population of England and Wales.
Cancer registrations are linked into the study and people are
classified by their socio-economic characteristics at a census.
Previous work on cancer incidence by social class was based on the
period 1971-1981.4 This article uses cancer registrations up to 1989
and focuses on social class patterns in the incidence of the Health
of the Nation cancers (Box 1).
METHOD
The ONS Longitudinal Study is a record linkage study of an
approximately one per cent representative sample of the population
of England and Wales (about 550,000 people). The initial sample,
drawn from the 1971 Census, is continually updated to include new
40
O f f i c e
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members through birth and immigration. Subsequent census and
vital event information is linked to the study through the National
Health Service Central Register. Full details of the linkage
procedures are described elsewhere.5
The main analysis is based on the 1971 Cohort (Box 2) for whom
longer follow-up makes trend analyses feasible. Longitudinal
Study members were assigned to a social class according to their
occupation at the 1971 Census: Social Class I (professional), II
(intermediate), IIIN (skilled non-manual), IIIM (skilled manual),
IV (partly skilled) or V (unskilled). Because of small numbers of
cases of lung and cervical cancers among women, the classes have
been aggregated into non-manual (I,II,IIIN) and manual
(IIIM,IV,V). For similar reasons Social Classes I and II were
aggregated as were Social Classes IV and V for the leading
cancers, breast among women and lung among men. Anyone
whose occupation was inadequately described or not stated, or who
was recorded as permanently sick or otherwise economically
inactive was categorised as ‘Unclassified’. Women were classified
according to their partner’s occupation or, if this was not available,
by their own.
Cancer registrations for the period 1976-89 were examined. As is
now conventional for social class analysis of longitudinal data, the
first five years of follow-up were excluded because of the potential
effects of health selection (Box 3). A subsidiary analysis was
carried out using social class at the 1981 Census (Box 2). Again, to
reduce the effects of health selection, the follow-up period for these
people was from 1986-89. With this analysis we compare the social
class patterns for the period 1986-89 using the more recent
measure of social class from the 1981 Census.
Incidence rates for each social class category were standardised by
the direct method using the World Health Organisation European
Standard Population, and derived for breast, lung, and cervical
cancers (ICD 174, 162 and 180 respectively). Limited findings for
malignant melanoma of the skin (ICD 172) are also presented.
Non–melanotic skin cancer was excluded due to the unreliability of
its registration.6 In the 1971 Cohort, the age-specific incidence
rates were calculated using cancer registrations and person years at
risk (Box 4) for each of three time periods (1976-1980, 1981-1985,
1986-1989). In the 1981 Cohort, the age-specific rates refer to
1986-89. Rate ratios (RR) for two age-groups (15-64 in the 1971
Cohort/16-64 in the 1981 Cohort and 65 years and over) were
derived using the largest class (IIIM) as the baseline category
(RR=1). Ratios for manual versus non-manual social class
categories were also derived (RR=1 for the non-manual classes).
Comparison of ratio measures between social classes are affected
by the differences in class sizes. Smaller classes at the extremes are
likely to lead to larger ratios when comparing the top with the
bottom of the hierarchy. Conversely, the manual/non-manual ratio
is likely to underestimate class differences as it ignores the
differences between individual classes. The index of inequality
avoids this problem as it adjusts for the different sizes of the
classes.7 Social class, based on all six levels, within each five yearage band was assigned a value between zero and one according to
the proportion of subjects above the midpoint of each class. For
example, men aged 40-44 in Social Class I comprised 6 per cent
and were assigned a value of 0.03, which is the proportion above
the midpoint of that class; those in the next class comprised an
additional 22 per cent and were assigned a value of 0.6+0.22/
2=0.17. This indicator of social position was then related to cancer
incidence rates using regression analysis. In the models, age was
fitted in five year age groups. The further the index of inequality
from 1.00, the greater the differentials across the social classes.
O f f i c e
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
Box One
Health of the Nation Targets.1
Breast cancer - reduce the rate of breast cancer deaths
among women invited for screening by at least 25 per
cent by the year 2000.
Lung cancer - reduce the death rate for lung cancer by
at least 30 per cent in men under 75 and by 15 per cent
in women under 75 by 2010 (from 60 per 100,000 for
men and 24.1 per 100,000 for women in 1990 to no
more than 42 and 20.5 respectively).
Cervical cancer - reduce the incidence of invasive
cervical cancer by at least 20 per cent by the year 2000.
Skin cancer - halt the year-on-year increase in the
incidence of skin cancer by 2005.
Box Two
The 1971 Cohort comprises all persons present at the
1971 Census and traced in the National Health Service
Central Register. In this analysis, they were aged 15 and
over at the start of study, classified by their occupation
details at the 1971 Census and followed-up to the end
of 1989.
The 1981 Cohort comprises all persons present at the
1981 Census and traced in the National Health Service
Central Register. They include mainly those in the 1971
Cohort who survived the first ten years of follow-up
but also a small proportion of immigrants who entered
England and Wales between censuses. The 1981 Cohort
were aged 16 and over at the 1981 Census, classified by
their information at that census and followed up to the
end of 1989.
Box Three
In a longitudinal study, health selection may affect
mortality differentials in the early period of follow-up.
Health selection refers to the process whereby
individuals are included or excluded from a group
because of their health status. Employed individuals are
generally assigned to a social class. They also tend to be
healthier than those out of work. The effects of health
selection on mortality differences by social class wear
off with increased follow-up. Most of the effect
disappears after the first five years.5
Box Four
In the Longitudinal Study, we can calculate the exact
fraction of a year in which each individual is at risk of
death after adjusting for people leaving and entering the
study. This cumulative total is known as the person
years at risk and is used to calculate death rates per 100
000 person years at risk. In contrast, in a routine crosssectional analysis the baseline population for the
calculation of death rates is obtained from the mid-year
estimate of population derived from the census.
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
41
P o p u l a t i o n
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
higher incidence in women in non-manual classes than in manual
classes.
FINDINGS
Social class patterns in incidence of Health of
the Nation cancers, 1976-89
Women
Table 1 shows incidence rates and rate ratios for breast, lung and
cervical cancers and malignant melanoma of the skin in women.
The absolute level of incidence was considerably greater at older
ages for breast and lung cancers, but for cervical cancer it was
similar in the two age groups.
Breast cancer was the most common cancer for women in both age
groups, accounting for 33 per cent of all cancers in those under 65,
and 22 per cent at older ages. Over the entire follow-up period
(1976-89), the incidence in women aged under 65 years was lowest
in Social Classes IV/V but differences between classes were not
statistically significant (Table 1). At age 65 and over, incidence
was highest in women in Social Classes I/II and IIIN, resulting in
At working ages, the incidence of lung and cervical cancers was
higher in manual than non-manual classes. For women under 65
years, the incidence of lung cancer in women in manual classes
was 72 per cent higher than those in non-manual classes and that of
cervical cancer was 61 per cent higher. These relative differences
narrowed at older ages.
Small numbers of malignant melanoma preclude firm conclusions
but there is a consistent pattern of higher incidence in non-manual
than manual classes in both age groups.
Men
Lung cancer was the leading cancer for men, accounting for 31 per
cent of all cancers. Table 2 shows steep social class gradients for
lung cancer among men in both age groups, with incidence rising
incrementally from Social Class I/II to Social Class IV/V. At
Number of cancers, incidence rates per 100,000 persons, 95% confidence intervals (CI) and rate ratios (RR) for breast, lung and cervical cancers
and malignant melanoma of the skin, 1976-89, women, by social class and age. 1971 Longitudinal Study Cohort
Table 1
Health of the
Nation cancers
Social class
Age at registration 15-64 years
Number
of cancers
Breast cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
Age at registration 65 years and over
Rate
CI
RR
Number
of cancers
Rate
CI
RR
409
231
537
307
75
77
78
68
(67-82)
(67-87)
(70-86)
(60-76)
0.96
0.99
1.00
0.87
297
211
309
322
210
224
185
170
(185-235)
(192-256)
(163-206)
(151-190)
1.14
1.21
1.00
0.92
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
640
844
116
76
73
67
(70-82)
(68-79)
(54-81)
1.00
0.96
0.88
508
631
476
216
177
181
(196-235)
(163-191)
(154-208)
1.00
0.82
0.84
Lung cancer
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
128
298
36
13
23
23
(11-16)
(20-26)
(15-31)
1.00
1.72
1.69
240
397
262
100
110
123
(87-113)
(99-121)
(100-146)
1.00
1.10
1.23
Cervical cancer
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
102
207
58
12
20
27
(10-15)
(17-23)
(19-34)
1.00
1.61
2.19
36
68
47
15
18
31
(10-20)
(14-23)
(18-43)
1.00
1.23
2.05
Melanoma
Non-manual
Manual
47
46
6.1
3.9
(4.3-8.0)
(2.7-5.1)
1.00
0.64
24
24
10.3
6.2
(6.0-14.6)
(3.6-8.7)
1.00
0.60
Unclassified omitted from Melanoma due to small numbers of cancers.
Numbers of cancers, incidence rates per 100 000 persons, 95% confidence intervals (CI) and rate ratios (RR) for lung cancer and malignant
melanoma of the skin, 1976-89, men by social class and age. 1971 Longitudinal Study Cohort
Table 2
Health of the
Nation cancers
Social class
Lung cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
Melanoma
Non-manual
Manual
Age at registration 15-64 years
Number
of cancers
Age at registration 65 years and over
Rate
CI
RR
Rate
CI
RR
214
120
535
394
35
45
58
67
(30-39)
(37-54)
(53-63)
(60-74)
0.59
0.78
1.00
1.16
403
225
872
892
284
318
430
478
(255-312)
(275-361)
(401-459)
(445-510)
0.66
0.74
1.00
1.11
334
929
46
38
62
50
(34-42)
(58-66)
(35-65)
1.00
1.63
1.32
628
1764
188
294
453
344
(271-318)
(431-475)
(283-404)
1.00
1.54
1.17
33
44
4.5
3.3
(2.9-6.1)
(2.3-4.4)
1.00
0.74
16
14
8.2
3.6
(4.1-12.2)
(1.7-5.5)
1.00
0.44
Unclassified omitted from Melanoma due to small numbers of cancers.
42
Number
of cancers
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
Health of the
Nation cancers
Social class
Trends in rate ratios (RR) in incidence of breast, lung and cervical cancers, by social class, age and follow-up period.
1971 Longitudinal Study Cohort
Age at registration 15-64 years
Number of
cancers
RR
1976-80
158
77
198
116
1.03
0.93
1.00
0.84
Non-manual
Manual
235
314
Lung cancer
Non-manual
Manual
Cervical cancer
Non-manual
Manual
WOMEN
Breast cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
MEN
Lung cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
Non-manual
Manual
Table 4
Health of the
Nation cancers
Social class
TT rr ee nn dd ss
men in manual and non-manual classes was higher than that of
women in the same classes. At older ages, the incidence of lung
cancer for men in manual classes was more than four times that of
women in the same age and class category.
working ages, the incidence of lung cancer among men in Social
Class IV/V was nearly twice that of men in Social Class I/II. At
older ages, the corresponding difference was 68 per cent. In both
age groups, the absolute level of incidence of lung cancer among
Table 3
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
Age at registration 65 years and over
Number of
cancers
RR
1981-85
Number of
cancers
RR
1986-89
Number of
cancers
RR
1976-80
Number of
cancers
147
79
175
107
1.13
1.06
1.00
0.95
104
75
164
84
0.76
0.99
1.00
0.83
89
72
102
109
1.03
1.17
1.00
0.85
109
75
100
117
1.00
0.92
226
282
1.00
0.87
179
248
1.00
1.09
161
211
1.00
0.84
53
99
1.00
1.32
43
112
1.00
1.85
32
87
1.00
2.16
68
91
39
80
1.00
1.52
39
71
1.00
1.36
24
56
1.00
2.09
94
50
219
178
0.63
0.79
1.00
1.19
73
46
194
137
0.56
0.83
1.00
1.14
47
24
122
79
144
397
1.00
1.59
119
331
1.00
1.65
71
201
RR
1981-85
Number of
cancers
RR
1986-89
1.32
1.39
1.00
1.05
99
64
107
96
1.10
1.11
1.00
0.90
184
217
1.00
0.76
163
203
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.86
82
155
1.00
1.32
90
151
1.00
1.14
11
15
1.00
0.88
16
29
1.00
1.15
9
24
1.00
1.94
0.59
0.71
1.00
1.13
143
79
279
331
0.74
0.75
1.00
1.17
142
77
291
314
0.70
0.75
1.00
1.19
118
69
302
247
0.53
0.71
1.00
0.98
1.00
1.67
222
610
1.00
1.45
219
605
1.00
1.51
187
549
1.00
1.70
Trends in incidence rates per 100 000, of breast, lung and cervical cancers, percentage change between time periods, by social class and age,
1971 Longitudinal Study Cohort
Age at registrations 15-64 years
1976-80
CI
1981-85
Age at registrations 65 years and over
CI
%
change
1986-89
65 (52-79)
85 (65-105)
86 (71-101)
71 (55-87)
WOMEN
Breast cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
81
73
79
67
(69-94)
(57-90)
(67-91)
(54-79)
78
73
69
66
(65-91)
(56-90)
(57-81)
(53-79)
-4
0
-13
-1
Non-manual
Manual
All women
79
73
75
(69-89)
(64-81)
(69-81)
77 (67-87)
67 (59-76)
69 (63-75)
-3
-8
-8
73
80
74
Lung cancer
Non-manual
Manual
All women
16
21
19
(12-21)
(17-26)
(16-22)
13 (9-17)
24 (20-29)
20 (17-23)
-19
14
5
Cervical cancer
Non-manual
Manual
All women
13
19
17
(9-17)
(15-24)
(15-20)
14 (9-19)
19 (14-25)
18 (15-21)
MEN
Lung cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
44
55
70
83
(35-53)
(40-70)
(61-79)
(71-96)
33
49
59
67
Non-manual
Manual
All men
47
75
65
(40-55)
(68-82)
(60-71)
CI
%
change
1976-80
CI
1981-85
CI
%
change
1986-89
CI
%
change
-17
16
25
8
225
255
219
186
(177-273)
(195-315)
(175-262)
(151-222)
210
221
159
167
(169-251)
(169-273)
(127-191)
(136-199)
-7
-13
-27
-10
194
196
176
158
(153-234)
(144-247)
(142-210)
(124-192)
-8
-11
11
-5
(62-84)
(69-91)
(67-81)
-5
19
7
238
201
202
(200-276)
(173-228)
(184-219)
214 (182-247)
163 (141-185)
185 (169-202)
-10
-19
-8
194 (163-226)
167 (143-191)
175 (157-193)
-9
2
-5
11
24
19
(7-15)
(19-29)
(15-22)
-15
0
-5
101
87
96
(77-125)
(69-105)
(84-108)
92 (71-113)
121 (102-141)
111 (98-124)
-9
39
16
107 (83-130)
122 (101-142)
119 (104-134)
16
1
7
8
0
6
10
20
15
(6-14)
(14-27)
(12-19)
-29
5
-17
16
14
18
(7-25)
(7-21)
(13-23)
19
22
21
(9-28)
(14-30)
(16-27)
19
57
17
10
19
17
(3-17)
(11-28)
(11-22)
-47
-14
-19
(25-41)
(35-63)
(51-67)
(56-78)
-25
-11
-16
-19
27
32
45
52
(19-34)
(19-45)
(37-54)
(40-63)
-18
-35
-24
-22
348
352
468
547
(291-405)
(274-430)
(413-523)
(488-606)
273
292
388
460
(228-319)
(225-360)
(343-433)
(408-513)
-22
-17
-17
-16
230
310
434
426
(187-273)
(233-387)
(384-485)
(368-483)
-16
6
12
-7
38 (31-44)
62 (55-69)
53 (48-57)
-19
-17
-18
28
48
40
(22-35)
(41-54)
(35-45)
-26
-23
-25
349
507
449
(303-395)
(467-547)
(420-478)
280 (242-318)
422 (388-456)
366 (341-391)
-20
-17
-18
254 (216-292)
430 (393-468)
360 (333-387)
-9
2
-2
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
43
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
As with women, the incidence of malignant melanoma was higher
in non-manual than manual classes in both age groups but these
differences did not reach statistical significance.
Figure 1
Tr e n d s i n r e l a t i v e c l a s s d i f f e r e n c e s
Rate per 1,000
Women
Table 3 shows the rate ratios by social class for breast, lung and
cervical cancers in women, and lung cancer in men for each of the
three time periods 1976-80, 1981-85, and 1986-89. Figure 1 shows
the corresponding results using the index of inequality which
compares the top with the bottom of the social class hierarchy,
adjusted for differences in class sizes.
60
Index of inequality (relative risk and 95% confidence
intervals), women, by age and follow-up period. 1971
Longitudinal Study Cohort
GB rate
50
Among women aged under 65, both the non-manual/manual ratios
and relative index of inequality indicate no statistically significant
relationship between breast cancer incidence and social class in any
of the three time periods. The pattern is not consistent across the
three time periods. In the first two periods incidence appeared
higher in non-manual than manual classes, but in 1986-89, the
incidence appeared higher in manual classes. At older ages, the
pattern is consistent in all three time periods with generally higher
incidence in non-manual than manual classes.
40
30
For lung cancer, the rate ratios based on manual/non-manual
classes increased over time among women aged under 65. In 198689, both the manual/non-manual rate ratio and the relative index of
inequality indicate large class differentials. At older ages, both
measures indicate that lung cancer incidence was higher in manual
classes only from 1981 onwards and that social class differentials
increased then reduced.
20
10
The incidence of cervical cancer was consistently higher in manual
than non-manual classes at working ages in every time period. In
1986-89, the incidence of cervical cancer in manual classes was
more than twice that of non-manual classes. The index of
inequality indicates even larger class differences. At older ages,
the manual/non-manual ratio indicates increasing class differences
but this trend was not consistent with that of the relative index of
inequality. Both measures, however, show large social class
differences in 1986-89.
0
England Wales Scotland
countries of Great Britain
North North Yorkshire East West East London South South
East West
East West and the Midlands Midlands
Humber
regions of England
Men
For men in both age groups, there were strong social class
gradients in lung cancer incidence in each time period. Class
differences were larger at working ages. In 1986-89, lung cancer
incidence in Social Class I/II was 92 per cent higher than that in
Social Class IV/V. Large class differences can also be seen in
Figure 2 using the index of inequality.
I n c i d e n c e r a t e s b y s o c i a l c l a s s ov e r t i m e
Women
Table 4 shows incidence rates and percentage change in rates over
the same time periods. Percentage changes are also shown in
Figure 3. At working ages, overall incidence of breast cancer did
not change significantly. A small rise can be seen between 1981-85
and 1986-89. Between 1981-85 and 1986-89 the rates for women
in Social Classes IIIN, IIIM and IV/V rose but that of Social Class
I/II declined, resulting in the apparent change in relative
differences between women in non-manual and manual social
classes noted above. At older ages, overall incidence fell and the
decline was consistent for women in non-manual classes but not
for those in manual classes. In spite of this decline in non-manual
classes, however, incidence rates remained higher than those of
older women in manual classes in all three time periods.
44
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
At working ages, overall lung cancer incidence remained at similar
levels over the three time periods. Women in non-manual classes
experienced declines which account for the persistent large class
differentials observed above. At older ages overall incidence rose
over time, but by class this trend is not consistent. Women in nonmanual classes experienced a fall followed by a rise whereas
among women in manual classes, the incidence rose and remained
high.
In both age groups, overall incidence of cervical cancer did not
change significantly across the three time periods. At working ages,
incidence in women in non-manual classes declined between 198185 and 1986-89 but that of women in manual classes remained at a
similar level. At older ages, both non-manual and manual classes
showed declines in the 1980s but the decline was larger in non-
S t a t i s t i c s
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
manual classes. This accounted for the large social class
differentials in 1986-89.
Men
Table 4 and Figure 4 show that the overall incidence of lung cancer
fell among men aged under 65 but the proportionate declines in
non-manual and manual classes were similar, accounting for the
persistence of strong class gradients in each time period. At older
ages, in 1986-89, Classes I/II and IV/V showed declines but
Classes IIIN and IIIM showed a rise in incidence. The larger
decline for Class I/II compared with Class IV/V, however,
contributed to the persistent overall class differentials.
Social class in 1981 and cancer incidence for
the period 1986-89
Women
Table 5 shows incidence rates for the period 1986-89 using social
class from the 1981 Census for all those present at that census
(1981 Census Cohort - see Box 2). The comparable rate ratios
based on social class in 1971 are shown in parentheses. In 198689, there was no clear class gradient for breast cancer by the
measurement of social class in 1981. By social class in 1971, the
incidence at working ages appeared lowest in Class I/II and highest
in Class IIIM, resulting in generally higher incidence in manual
than non-manual classes. By class in 1981, however, the incidence
was highest in Classes I/II and IV/V so that the overall difference
between non-manual and manual classes is small. At older ages,
class in 1971 shows higher incidence in non-manual women but
again by the later measurement in 1981, the difference between
non-manual and manual classes is very small.
The smaller difference in breast cancer incidence between nonmanual and manual classes in the 1981 Cohort compared with the
1971 Cohort, may be due to the continuing effects of health
selection (Box 3). ‘Unclassified’ people are more likely to belong
to a manual than a non-manual class. 8 In the 1981 Cohort,
‘Unclassified’ women of working ages showed the highest
incidence and it is likely that their exclusion contributed to an
underestimation of incidence in manual classes. Similarly, at older
ages ‘Unclassified’ women showed lowest incidence which would
have meant that the incidence in the manual class was overestimated. Additionally, at older ages it was more difficult to
allocate women to a social class.
The incidence of lung and cervical cancers remained considerably
higher among women in manual classes in both age groups by class
Figure 2
Index of inequality (relative risk and 95% confidence
intervals), men, by age and follow-up period. 1971
Longitudinal Study Cohort
TT rr ee nn dd ss
in 1981. At working ages, the incidence of lung cancer was 69 per
cent and that of cervical 77 per cent higher in manual than in nonmanual classes.
Men
Among men, a steep class gradient for lung cancer persisted with
the later measurement of class in 1981. At working ages, the
incidence in Social Class IV/V was twice that of Social Class I/II.
At older ages the differences between these classes remained large,
at 82 per cent.
DISCUSSION
Even in a study as large as the Longitudinal Study, the number of
cases of the most common cancers is small. However, twenty
Figure 3
Percentage change in standardised rates between time
periods, women. 1971 Longitudinal Study Cohort
Rate per 1,000
GB rate
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Percentage
60
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
Rural Remoter Established New and Mixed Coast Established Growth Most Coalfields Manufact- Ports Education West East
Amenity Rural Manufact- Develop- Urban and Service Areas Prosperous uring and Centres Inner Inner
uring ing Areas Country Centres
Centres Industry and Outer London London
Fringe
Resorts
London
GB percentage
50
40
30
20
10
0
England
Wales
Scotland
countries of Great Britain
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
regions of England
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
45
P o p u l a t i o n
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
years of follow-up has allowed reporting of social class differences
in the incidence of Health of the Nation cancers with some degree
of confidence.
Figure 4
Percentage change in standardised rates between time
periods, men. 1971 Longitudinal Study Cohort
Percentage
Breast cancer was the most common cancer in women of all ages
and from the national cancer registration data, its incidence is
known to have risen in the 1980s.9 The 1971 Cohort in the
Longitudinal Study showed a small rise in incidence in women
under 65 but a decline in women aged over 65. Previous analysis
of Longitudinal Study data showed breast cancer incidence to be
higher among more affluent women.3 Over the entire follow-up
period there was little difference between the social classes in
incidence in women of working ages. By time period, however,
there appeared to be a change in the pattern from higher incidence
in women in non-manual classes in 1976-85 to higher incidence in
those in manual classes in 1986-89. Longer follow-up is needed to
confirm these trends. Recent analyses indicated a corresponding
change in mortality trends from lower mortality of women in
manual classes compared with those in non-manual classes to no
significant difference in 1986-92.10 Work in the United States has
shown a change in social class patterns among white women, with
higher incidence in the manual classes than in the professional
classes.11 At older ages incidence was consistently higher among
women in non-manual classes. As registration coverage is
generally high and has been reported at around the same level since
197111 discrepancies in coverage are unlikely to be biased by social
class. The NHS breast screening programme began in 1988 and
with follow-up only to the end of 1989, the rise in incidence among
younger women in manual social classes cannot readily be
explained by increased uptake of screening. The risk of breast
cancer increases with age at first pregnancy.12 It is possible that the
rise in incidence could be influenced by delayed childbirth, a
pattern established earlier among women in non-manual classes.13
An association has also been found between adverse life events and
60
GB percentage
50
40
30
20
10
0
Rural Remoter Established New and
Amenity Rural Manufact- Developuring ing Areas
Fringe
Mixed
Urban
Coast Established Growth
Most Coalfields Manufact- Ports Education West
and
Service
Areas Prosperous
uring
and
Centres
Inner
Country Centres
Centres Industry and Outer London
Resorts
London
breast cancer.14 In the 1980s, women in manual classes were more
likely to face the added stresses of being unemployed than those in
non-manual classes.15
Over the entire follow-up period, the incidence of cervical cancer
showed a social class differential for women under 65. In both age
groups, the relationship between social class and incidence of
cervical cancer was strongest in the most recent period, 1986-89.
The risk of cervical cancer is strongly influenced by sexual
behaviour, parity, age at first pregnancy and smoking.16 Screening
for cervical cancer was well established before the follow-up
period of this study although there were occasional publicity
campaigns to encourage uptake and promote healthy behaviour.
The introduction in 1988 of incentives to GPs to increase their
Number of cancers, incidence rates per 100 000 persons, 95% confidence intervals (CI) and rate ratios (RR) for breast, lung and cervical cancers
and malignant melanoma of the skin, 1986-89, by social class and age. 1981 Longitudinal Study Cohort. (1971 Longitudinal Study Cohort)
Table 5
Health of the
Nation cancers
Social class
Age at registration 16-64 years
Age at registration 65 years and over
Number of
cancers
Rate
152
58
149
102
80
67
78
80
(67-92)
(49-84)
(65-91)
(64-95)
1.02
0.85
1.00
1.02
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
210
251
51
75
78
91
(65-85)
(69-88)
(65-117)
Lung cancer
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
38
77
20
13
22
30
Cervical cancer
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
34
69
17
(
(
Rate
CI
(0.76)
(0.99)
(1.00)
(0.83)
78
41
77
72
220
176
211
186
(168-272)
(117-234)
(158-264)
(139-233)
1.04
0.83
1.00
0.88
(1.10)
(1.11)
(1.00)
(0.90)
1.00
1.04
1.21
(1.00)
(1.09)
(0.99)
119
149
196
203
198
179
(164-243)
(163-233)
(144-214)
1.00
0.97
0.88
(1.00)
(0.86)
(0.87)
(9-17)
(17-27)
(17-44)
1.00
1.69
2.31
(1.00)
(2.16)
(2.45)
55
107
155
95
141
162
(68-122)
(113-170)
(131-194)
1.00
1.49
1.71
(1.00)
(1.14)
(1.37)
12
22
27
(8-17)
(17-27)
(13-41)
1.00
1.77
2.25
(1.00)
(2.09)
(2.00)
5
18
24
8
24
28
(1-15)
(13-35)
(13-44)
1.00
3.03
3.50
(1.00)
(1.94)
(3.30)
IV/V
58
18
112
90
28
26
48
56
(21-35)
(13-40)
(40-57)
(44-67)
0.59
0.55
1.00
1.15
(0.59)
(0.71)
(1.00)
(1.13)
122
74
232
249
304
392
503
553
(256-353)
(311-473)
(441-565)
(490-616)
0.61
0.78
1.00
1.10
(0.53)
(0.71)
(1.00)
(0.98)
Non-manual
Manual
Unclassified
76
202
13
28
51
44
(22-34)
(44-58)
(24-65)
1.00
1.84
1.57
(1.00)
(1.67)
(1.07)
196
481
113
331
527
431
(289-372)
(483-571)
(337-525)
1.00
1.59
1.30
(1.00)
(1.70)
(1.04)
MEN
Lung cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
O f f i c e
f o r
CI
N a t i o n a l
RR
RR 1971
Cohort
)
Number of
cancers
WOMEN
Breast cancer
I/II
IIIN
IIIM
IV/V
46
East
Inner
London
S t a t i s t i c s
RR
RR 1971
Cohort
)
8 89 0| | S u
Wm
i nmt ee rr 11 99 99 77
screening coverage will have had little effect on the results for
1988-89. These findings highlight the need to continue to target
preventive strategies and to encourage the uptake of screening
services by women in manual classes.
The social class gradients for lung cancer are well established 4,10
and our findings confirm the persistence of these class differences.
Smoking is undisputedly the single most important cause of lung
cancer. The changing pattern of lung cancer among older women,
with incidence higher in non-manual classes in the earliest period
but higher in manual classes in the 1980s, possibly reflects changes
in smoking patterns between cohorts. Declines in smoking levels
occurred later for women compared with men and social
differentiation only became apparent in the late 1960s.17 Recent
data has shown that men and women in Social Class V are almost
four times more likely to smoke than those in Social Class I. 18,19
Since 1972 there has been a steady decrease in the proportions of
men smoking although the numbers are consistently higher among
men in manual classes. Over the same period the number of
women smoking fell steadily in the non-manual classes but a fall in
the manual classes did not begin until 1982.18 Although smoking
rates have fallen in the adult population, recent evidence indicates a
rise among teenagers, particularly girls. 20 This has implications for
future trends in lung cancer. The poor prognosis of this cancer
makes it important to encourage anti-smoking strategies.
The incidence of malignant melanoma of the skin was higher
among men and women in non-manual classes at both working and
older ages, suggesting greater exposure to sunshine among these
people. Women had higher rates than men. The higher incidence at
older ages is consistent with the suggestion that the risk of this
cancer is influenced by accumulated exposure to the rays of the
sun.1 Although malignant melanoma of the skin accounts for a
relatively small number of cancers they are potentially preventable.
Wide publicity is currently being given to ways of protecting
against this cancer and the results of these campaigns should be
monitored.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
These findings have important implications for policy makers and
clinicians. If the Health of the Nation targets for cancer are to be
achieved, the need remains for coherent strategies for prevention
and early detection. Underlying issues of inequalities must be
addressed to prevent social class differences in exposure to risk
factors. For cancers with a preventable component, such as those
of the lung and cervix, targeting primary intervention strategies
sensitively is important for the control of risk factors. For cancers
such as breast, with no known prevention strategy, it is important to
encourage self-awareness as well as ensuring equitable provision
of services.
19.
20.
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Department of Health. The Health of the Nation: A strategy
for health in England - White Paper. HMSO (London, 1992).
Davey Smith G, Leon D, Shipley M, & Rose G. Socioeconomic Differentials in Cancer among Men. International
Journal of Epidemiology 20 (2) pp 339-345. (1991).
Leon D. Longitudinal Study: Social distribution of cancer.
LS no.3. HMSO (London, 1988).
Kogevinas E. Longitudinal Study: Socio-demographic
differences in cancer survival 1971-1983 LS no.5. HMSO
(London, 1990).
Fox A.J, Goldblatt P and Jones D. Social Class Mortality
Differentials: Artifact, Selection or Life Circumstances? in
Longitudinal Study: Mortality and social organisation. LS
no.6. Goldblatt, P. (ed.) HMSO (London, 1990).
OPCS Cancer statistics: registrations 1989. MB1 No 22.
HMSO (London, 1994).
Kunst A. E and Mackenbach J. P. The size of mortality
O f f i c e
PP oo pp uu ll aa tt ii oo nn
TT rr ee nn dd ss
differences associated with educational level in nine
industralized countries. American Journal of Public Health
84 pp 932-937. (1994).
Fox A and Goldblatt P. Longitudinal Study: sociodemographic mortality differentials. LS no.1. HMSO
(London, 1982).
Quinn M and Allen E. Changes in incidence of and
mortality from breast cancer in England and Wales since the
introduction of screening. British Medical Journal 311 pp
1391-1395. (1995).
Harding S, Bethune A, Maxwell R, & Brown J. Mortality
trends using the Longitudinal Study. in Health Inequalities,
Series DS No 15. Drever, F and Whitehead, M. (eds.) The
Stationery Office (London, 1997).
Krieger N. Race, Ethnicity, Social Class and Incidence of
Cancer. National Centre for Health Statistics 1997 Joint
Meeting of the Public Health Conference on Records and
Statistics and the Data Users’ Conference. (Washington
D.C., 1997).
dos Santos Silva I and Swerdlow A. Recent trends in
incidence of and mortality from breast, ovarian and
endometrial cancers in England and Wales and their relation
to changing fertility and oral contraceptive use. British
Journal of Cancer 72 pp 485-492. (1995).
Jones C. Fertility of the over thirties Population Trends 67
pp 10-16. HMSO (London, 1992).
Chen C, David D, Nunnerly H, Michell M, Dawson J, Berry
H, Dobbs J & Fahy, Y. Adverse life events and breast
cancer: Case-control study. British Medical Journal 311 pp
1527-30. (1995).
Bethune A. Economic activity and mortality of the 1981
Census Cohort in the OPCS Longitudinal Study Population
Trends 83 pp 37-43. HMSO (London, 1996).
Schiffman M. & Brinton L. The Epidemiology of Cervical
Carcenogenesis. Cancer Supplement 76 (10): 1888-1911. (1995).
Wald N, Kiryluk S, Derby S, Doll R, Pike M & Peto R (eds.).
UK Smoking Statistics. Oxford University Press. (1988).
Austoker J, Sanders D & Fowler G. Smoking and cancer:
Smoking cessation. British Medical Journal 308 pp 1478-82.
(1994).
General Household Survey 1992. HMSO (London, 1994).
ONS. Smoking among secondary school children First
release no. 183. (1997).
Key Findings
Breast cancer was the most common cancer for women
at all ages but the incidence of disease was greater at
older ages. Over the entire follow-up period, there was
very little difference in incidence between younger (1564) women in non-manual and manual classes. At older
ages (65+), the rates were consistently higher among
non-manual women.
The overall incidence in cervical cancer was similar at
working and older ages. At working ages the incidence
was consistently higher for women in manual than nonmanual classes, and was more than double that of nonmanual classes in 1986-89.
Lung cancer is predominantly a disease of older ages.
The incidence was consistently higher in men than in
women. Among women and men of working ages, the
incidence was higher among manual classes. By 1986-89,
these differences were two-fold among women. A
greater decline in lung cancer incidence among those in
non-manual classes led to the non-manual/manual
differences over time.
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
47
9 0 |
48
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Tables
table
page
1
50
2
51
3
4
52
53
5
54
6
7
55
57
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
8
58
England and Wales
9
60
England and Wales
10
60
England and Wales
11
61
England and Wales
12
62
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
13
63
England and Wales
England and Wales
England and Wales
14
15
16
64
65
66
England and Wales
17
68
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
18
19
20
69
70
71
United Kingdom
21
72
England and Wales
22
73
England and Wales
England and Wales
23
24
74
75
Population
International
National
Subnational
Subnational
Components of population change
Age and sex
Age, sex and marital status
Selected countries
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
Standard regions and
metropolitan countries of
England
Health regions of England
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
Constituent countries of
United Kingdom
England and Wales
Vital statistics
Summary
Live births
Age of mother
Outside marriage: age of mother
and type of registration
Inside marriage: age of mother,
marital status, and birth order
Conceptions
Age of women at conception
Expectation of life
(in years) at birth and selected ages
Deaths
Age and sex
Subnational
Selected causes and sex
Abortions
Marital status, age, and
gestation weeks
International migration
Age and sex
Country of last or next residence
Citizenship
Internal migration
Movements within the
United Kingdom
Marriage and divorce
First marriage: age and sex
Remarriages: age, sex and previous
marital status
Divorce: age and sex
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
49
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 1
Year
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Population and vital rates: international
United
Kingdom (1)
Denmark
(2)
France
(2)
4,963
5,073
5,122
5,121
5,154
5,189
5,206
5,233
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
57,665
57,915
58,146
61,302
61,531
61,685
61,068
64,105
65,514
65,873
4.4
1.9
—
3.3
3.5
3.3
5.2
6.5
4.8
5.0
5.5
5.1
4.3
4.0
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
14.1
13.5
1976–80
12.5
12.4
1981–85
12.9
12.0
1991
13.7
12.6
1993
13.1
12.0
1994
12.9
11.5
1995
12.5
11.4
1996
12.5‡
14.6
12.0
10.2
12.5
13.0
13.4
13.4
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
11.8
1976–80
11.9
1981–85
11.7
1991
11.3
1993
11.3
1994
10.7
1995
11.0‡
12.1
11.6
11.4
10.5
10.7
10.4
10.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.6
12.1
11.7
12.1‡
European
Union (3)
Sweden
(2)
USSR†
(2)
Australia
(1)
Canada
(4)
New
Zealand (5)
China
(5)
India
(6)
Japan
(7)
USA
(1)
305,391
313,034
319,095
322,103
328,946
332,287
333,538
8,115
8,236
8,320
8,370
8,617
8,719
8,781
8,827
243,891
255,605
267,722
280,237
291,049‡
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,292
17,662‡
17,843‡
21,568
22,993
23,342
25,353
27,000
28,755‡
29,248‡
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,450
3,505‡
3,493‡
852,290
937,170
1,008,460
1,086,551
1,170,697
1,196,360‡
1,208,842‡
551,311
617,248
675,185
766,135
843,931
901,459‡
918,570‡
105,145
113,094
117,902
121,672
124,043
123,653‡
124,961‡
207,661
218,035
229,958
240,680
252,688
258,245‡
260,651‡
18.2
2.0
7.6
–10.4
26.7
–3.4
Population** (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,352
1986
56,852
1991
57,808
1993
58,191
1994
58,395
1995
58,606
1996
58,801
Belgium
(2)
9,672
9,811
9,859
9,862
10,005
10,084
10,116
10,137
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
2.9
1976–81
0.5
1.0
1981–86
1.8
0.1
1991–92
3.4
4.1
1992–93
3.2
3.9
1993–94
3.5
3.2
1994–95
3.6
2.1
1995–96
3.3
Year
Spain
(2)
Population** (thousands)
1971
34,190
1976
35,937
1981
37,756
1986
38,627
1991
39,025
1993
39,083
1994
39,143
1995
39,210
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
10.2
5.0
1976–81
10.1
3.8
1981–86
4.6
2.2
1991–92
1.5
5.7
1992–93
–0.1
4.4
1993–94
1.5
3.8
1994–95
1.7
Germany
(Fed. Rep) (2)*
Greece
(2)
Irish
Republic (2)
Italy
(2)
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,964
10,200
10,378
10,426
10,458
2,978
3,228
3,452
3,541
3,530
3,566
3,573‡
3,586‡
54,074
55,718
56,510
56,675
56,760
57,049
57,204
57,301
345
362
365
368
387
398
403
410
0.7
0.5
–2.0
12.2
9.7
5.5
7.6
12.3
4.8
7.8
9.5
4.6
3.1
16.8
13.9
5.2
5.3
4.8
2.0‡
3.6‡
6.1
2.8
0.6
4.2
0.8
2.7
1.7
9.9
1.8
1.8
13.9
14.0
12.6
17.4
8.8
6.9
4.6
7.6
7.0
6.0
5.0
14.9
11.3
1.5
–0.4
2.4
2.1
1.4
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.3
12.3
12.3
12.5
10.8
9.6
9.8
11.3
11.0
10.5
10.3‡
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.1
9.8
10.0
9.9‡
22.2
21.3
19.2
16.3‡
13.9‡
13.4‡
13.5‡
15.9
12.6
10.6
9.9
9.6
9.2‡
9.1‡
11.5
11.2
11.6
12.9
13.4
13.5
13.2
14.9
12.6
12.2
13.2
12.8
12.7
12.3‡
20.1
17.9
14.4
11.8
11.5
11.0
10.8
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.2
9.2
9.0
9.1
11.9
11.7
11.6
11.1
10.9
10.7
10.6‡
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4‡
11.0
10.2
9.4
8.9
9.0‡
8.6‡
8.8‡
9.8
9.7
9.6
9.7‡
9.7‡
9.6‡
9.5‡
12.1
11.5
11.2
9.7
9.8
9.4
9.3
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.6
9.0
8.7
8.8‡
11.0
10.1
9.6
10.5
10.7
10.0
10.4
3.0
2.0
1.2
5.9
5.9
8.0
4.3
9.6
9.5
9.3
14.8
12.7
14.7
17.3
4.0
10.2
13.2
3.0
17.2
13.6
50.7
17.1
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
19.3
15.1
1976–80
17.1
13.1
1981–85
12.9
12.2
1991
10.2
11.8
1993
9.9
11.3
1994
9.3‡
11.1
1995
9.1‡
13.5
11.6
11.3
14.3
13.5
12.8
11.7
17.9
18.2
19.4
18.8
15.7
15.6
14.9
14.7
14.5
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.6
13.4
13.1
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
8.5
1976–80
8.0
1981–85
7.8
1991
8.6
1993
8.7
1994
8.5‡
1995
8.8‡
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.0
11.1
10.5
10.6
8.7
9.8
10.5
8.2
7.6
7.3
6.9
6.9
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.2
*
†
**
‡
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.0
10.0
9.8
Excluding former GDR throughout.
As formerly constituted.
Populations estimated as follows.
Provisional
50
O f f i c e
f o r
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Luxembourg (2)
Netherlands (2)
13,194
13,774
14,247
14,572
15,070
15,290
15,382
15,459‡
S t a t i s t i c s
8,663
9,308
9,836
9,909
9,862
9,881
9,902
9,916
19.9
15.2
15.5
14.8
7.0
10.4
23.9
18.8
26.9
30.9
36.2
19.0
15.1
8.5
6.4
3.3
–6.4
10.6
10.0
10.9
9.3
11.0
10.9
9.3
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.6
17.1‡
27.2
18.6
19.2
18.6‡
18.5‡
35.6
33.4
..
29.5
28.5
18.6
14.9
12.6
9.9
9.5
10.1
15.3
15.2
15.7
16.3
15.6
8.4
8.2
8.1
7.8
7.9
7.3
6.6
6.7
15.5
13.8
..
9.8
9.2
7.2‡
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.7
7.0
7.0‡
At 30 June.
Average of populations at start and end of year as given in Council of Europe report Recent demographic developments in Europe 1996.
EU as constituted 1 January 1986.
At 1 June.
At 31 December.
At 1 July for 1971, 1976 and 1987; at 1 March for 1981; UN estimates for 1983–5, data not comparable with other years.
At 1 October. (Rates for Japan are based on population of Japanese nationality only.)
N a t i o n a l
Portugal
(2)
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.8‡
9 0 |
Table 2
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Population: national
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year
thousands
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
England
and Wales
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Estimates
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
52,807
55,928
56,216
56,352
56,852
51,380
54,388
54,693
54,815
55,285
46,196
49,152
49,459
49,634
50,162
43,561
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,342
2,635
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,820
5,184
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,123
1,427
1,540
1,524
1,538
1,567
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
57,561
57,808
58,006
58,191
58,395
58,606
58,801
55,972
56,207
56,388
56,559
56,753
56,957
57,138
50,869
51,100
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
47,992
48,208
48,378
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
2,878
2,891
2,899
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
5,102
5,107
5,111
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
1,589
1,601
1,618
1,632
1,642
1,649
1,663
6.4
14.2
41.0
20.3
11.0
7.1
6.4
14.1
41.0
20.4
11.1
7.2
6.4
14.1
40.9
20.4
11.0
7.2
6.4
14.1
41.0
20.3
11.0
7.2
6.1
14.5
38.5
21.0
12.2
7.8
6.1
13.9
41.8
20.3
11.3
6.5
7.5
17.5
42.1
18.0
9.6
5.4
58,782
59,472
60,005
60,493
57,128
57,796
58,316
58,794
51,979
52,661
53,207
53,712
49,058
49,724
50,260
50,757
2,922
2,937
2,947
2,995
5,149
5,135
5,108
5,083
1,654
1,676
1,690
1,699
5.5
12.9
38.0
24.0
12.1
7.5
5.5
12.8
37.9
24.1
12.2
7.5
5.5
12.9
38.0
24.0
12.1
7.5
5.6
12.9
38.1
24.0
12.1
7.5
5.4
12.5
36.2
23.8
13.6
8.5
5.4
12.3
37.5
25.0
12.4
7.4
6.1
14.5
40.2
22.0
11.0
6.2
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections*
1996
2001
2006
2011
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
*
These projections are based on the mid-1994 population estimates.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
51
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 3
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Population: subnational
Standard regions and metropolitan counties of England
Mid-year
North
Tyne
and
Wear
Rest
of
North
Yorks
and
Humberside
South
Yorkshire
West
Yorkshire
Rest of
Yorks
and
Humberside
East
Midlands
East
Anglia
South
East
Estimates
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
3,113
3,152
3,154
3,117
3,087
1,241
1,218
1,188
1,155
1,138
1,872
1,934
1,966
1,962
1,949
4,677
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,906
1,298
1,331
1,323
1,317
1,300
2,002
2,090
2,082
2,067
2,056
1,377
1,481
1,519
1,535
1,550
3,330
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,919
1,489
1,688
1,814
1,894
1,993
16,071
17,125
16,976
17,011
17,315
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
3,092
3,102
3,100
3,095
3,091
1,130
1,138
1,134
1,131
1,127
1,961
1,964
1,966
1,964
1,964
4,983
5,014
5,025
5,029
5,036
1,302
1,306
1,305
1,304
1,305
2,085
2,102
2,104
2,106
2,109
1,596
1,606
1,616
1,620
1,621
4,035
4,083
4,102
4,124
4,141
2,082
2,094
2,105
2,123
2,142
17,637
17,769
17,870
17,989
18,120
6.1
14.3
40.0
20.7
11.9
6.9
6.1
14.2
41.2
19.6
11.9
6.9
6.1
14.4
39.4
21.3
11.9
6.9
6.4
14.3
40.7
20.2
11.2
7.2
6.4
13.9
41.1
20.1
11.3
7.2
6.7
14.7
41.8
19.5
10.5
6.7
6.0
14.1
39.0
21.3
11.9
7.7
6.2
14.1
40.4
20.9
11.2
7.1
6.1
13.7
39.6
21.0
11.7
7.9
6.7
13.7
42.7
19.8
10.1
7.0
3,113
3,110
3,103
1,133
1,130
1,127
1,979
1,980
1,976
5,116
5,165
5,205
1,308
1,307
1,307
2,141
2,162
2,180
1,667
1,696
1,718
4,270
4,372
4,459
2,245
2,324
2,395
18,408
18,761
19,032
5.4
12.6
35.6
24.8
13.1
8.5
5.6
12.9
37.8
24.3
11.6
7.9
5.3
12.4
34.4
25.1
14.0
8.8
5.7
13.3
37.2
23.6
12.2
8.0
5.6
13.1
37.6
23.7
12.1
7.9
6.1
14.0
38.2
23.2
11.3
7.2
5.3
12.6
35.7
24.0
13.4
9.1
5.7
13.6
37.8
23.4
11.9
7.6
5.4
13.1
36.8
23.5
12.6
8.6
5.9
13.6
38.5
23.5
11.2
7.3
of which
(percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections*
2001
2006
2011
of which
(percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Mid-year
Greater
London
Rest of
South
East
South
West
West
Midlands
(region)
West
Midlands
(county)
Rest
of West
Midlands
North
West
Greater
Manchester
Merseyside
Estimates
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
7,977
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,803
8,094
9,596
9,887
10,206
10,511
3,712
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,560
4,762
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,197
2,724
2,811
2,747
2,673
2,638
2,038
2,335
2,431
2,514
2,559
6,407
6,634
6,560
6,459
6,367
2,710
2,750
2,680
2,619
2,563
1,711
1,662
1,586
1,522
1,471
1,986
2,222
2,294
2,318
2,334
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
6,890
6,933
6,968
7,007
7,074
10,747
10,836
10,903
10,982
11,046
4,718
4,768
4,798
4,827
4,842
5,265
5,290
5,295
5,306
5,317
2,629
2,634
2,628
2,637
2,642
2,636
2,656
2,667
2,669
2,674
6,396
6,412
6,412
6,410
6,401
2,570
2,579
2,578
2,578
2,576
1,450
1,441
1,434
1,427
1,420
2,376
2,393
2,400
2,404
2,405
7.1
13.4
46.1
18.1
9.1
6.2
6.3
13.9
40.5
20.9
10.8
7.5
5.8
13.5
38.5
21.0
12.3
8.9
6.5
14.6
40.2
20.8
11.2
6.8
7.0
15.0
41.0
19.2
11.0
6.8
6.0
14.1
39.3
22.3
11.4
6.9
6.4
14.8
40.4
20.4
11.1
7.0
6.7
15.1
41.3
19.8
10.4
6.7
6.3
14.9
40.3
19.8
11.6
7.1
6.3
14.5
39.4
21.3
11.4
7.2
7,170
7,313
7,407
11,239
11,448
11,625
5,006
5,135
5,248
5,375
5,417
5,453
2,617
2,604
2,593
2,758
2,813
2,860
6,489
6,529
6,564
2,614
2,636
2,655
1,427
1,418
1,409
2,448
2,476
2,500
6.4
14.1
42.2
22.6
8.9
5.7
5.5
13.3
36.2
24.1
12.6
8.3
5.2
12.6
35.4
23.8
13.2
9.7
6.0
13.9
37.2
23.2
12.1
7.6
6.4
14.6
38.1
22.4
11.0
7.4
5.6
13.3
36.5
23.9
13.0
7.7
6.0
13.9
37.4
23.4
11.8
7.4
6.3
14.5
38.5
23.0
11.1
6.6
5.9
13.7
37.1
23.8
11.6
8.0
5.8
13.5
36.4
23.5
12.8
8.0
of which
(percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections*
2001
2006
2011
of which
(percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
*
These projections are based on the mid-1993 population estimates.
52
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
Rest of
North
West
9 0 |
Table 4
P o p u l a t i o n
Population: subnational
New health regions of England*
Mid-year
Estimates
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
of which
(percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections*
2001
2006
2011
of which
(percentages)
0–4
5–14
15–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75+
*
+
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
T r e n d s
thousands
Northern and
Yorkshire +
Trent +
Anglia and
Oxford
North
Thames
South
Thames
South and
West
West
Midlands
North
West
6,335
6,482
6,512
6,550
6,519
6,600
6,638
6,647
6,649
6,338
4,228
4,483
4,557
4,608
4,634
4,720
4,766
4,781
4,796
5,121
3,596
4,272
4,531
4,745
4,980
5,175
5,228
5,262
5,315
5,361
6,778
6,914
6,695
6,598
6,652
6,742
6,793
6,831
6,872
6,934
6,248
6,642
6,567
6,489
6,567
6,680
6,716
6,746
6,781
6,819
5,050
5,569
5,789
5,988
6,224
6,426
6,487
6,529
6,569
6,594
4,762
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,197
5,266
5,290
5,295
5,306
5,317
6,564
6,903
6,832
6,657
6,570
6,600
6,617
6,616
6,614
6,605
6.3
14.4
40.5
20.4
11.4
7.0
6.3
14.0
40.4
20.7
11.4
7.2
6.5
14.3
41.6
20.7
10.3
6.7
6.9
13.7
44.0
19.2
9.7
6.5
6.5
13.4
41.5
20.0
10.7
7.9
5.9
13.6
39.1
20.9
11.9
8.5
6.5
14.6
40.2
20.8
11.2
6.8
6.4
14.8
40.3
20.4
11.1
7.0
6,746
6,792
6,824
4,912
4,989
5,054
5,591
5,784
5,949
7,031
7,170
7,269
6,901
7,002
7,081
6,771
6,922
7,056
5,375
5,418
5,453
6,694
6,735
6,771
5.6
11.7
37.8
24.1
12.6
8.2
5.6
12.1
38.9
23.5
12.1
7.9
5.7
12.6
38.9
23.7
11.8
7.3
6.2
12.7
41.8
22.8
10.1
6.4
5.7
12.0
38.8
23.7
11.7
8.1
5.2
11.4
36.7
24.0
13.2
9.5
6.0
12.6
38.5
23.2
12.1
7.6
6.0
12.6
38.6
23.4
11.9
7.5
Areas as constituted in 1994. Population figures for years before 1981 may relate to different areas where boundaries have changed.
From 1 - 4 - 96 boundary changes due to local government reorganisation has led to changes in the constitution of the Northern and Yorkshire and Trent health regions. South Humber health authority with 311.3 thousand
people - mid 1996 is now included in the Trent region rather than in the Northern and Yorkshire region.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
53
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 5
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Components of population change
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
Great Britain
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
England and Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
England
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
Total
annual
change
Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
Births
Deaths
Natural
Net civilian migration
change
Total
To/from
rest of
UK
55,928
56,216
57,808
58,006
58,191
58,395
58,606
58,801
+ 58
+ 27
+199
+185
+203
+ 211
+196
766
705
793
764
763
738
723
670
662
639
635
652
632
646
+ 96
+ 42
+ 154
+ 130
+ 111
+ 106
+ 77
– 55
– 33
+ 45
+ 43
+ 74
+ 108
+ 110
54,388
54,693
56,207
56,388
56,559
56,753
56,957
57,138
+ 61
+ 24
+182
+171
+194
+204
+181
738
678
767
739
738
714
699
653
646
624
620
636
616
630
+ 85
+ 32
+ 143
+ 120
+ 102
+ 97
+ 69
– 42
– 25
+ 42
+ 40
+ 73
+ 108
+ 104
+
+
–
–
+
+
-
49,152
49,459
51,100
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
+ 61
+ 35
+177
+162
+181
+200
+190
644
612
700
675
675
653
640
588
582
563
558
574
557
569
+ 76
+ 30
+ 137
+ 117
+ 102
+ 96
+ 71
– 28
– 9
+ 41
+ 35
+ 63
+ 104
+ 110
+10
+ 11
– 12
– 8
– 6
+ 1
+ 3
–
–
–
–
+
+
—
9
3
6
2
1
1
1
46,412
46,660
48,208
48,378
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
+ 50
+ 32
+170
+154
+175
+196
+186
627
577
662
638
638
618
606
552
546
529
524
538
522
534
+ 75
+ 31
+ 133
+ 114
+ 100
+ 96
+ 72
– 35
– 11
+ 40
+ 32
+ 59
+ 100
+ 104
+ 1
+ 6
– 15
– 11
– 8
—
+ 1
–
–
–
–
+
+
—
2,740
2,799
2,891
2,899
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
+ 12
+ 3
+ 7
+ 8
+ 7
+ 4
+ 4
37
35
38
37
37
35
34
36
36
34
34
36
34
35
+
–
+
+
+
+
—
1
1
4
3
1
1
1
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
7
2
2
3
4
4
6
+10
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
5,236
5,233
5,107
5,111
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
—
– 11
+ 4
+ 9
+ 12
+ 4
– 9
73
66
67
64
63
61
59
64
64
61
62
63
60
61
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
9
2
6
2
1
1
2
– 14
– 16
—
+ 5
+ 10
+ 4
– 6
– 4
– 7
+10
+ 7
+ 7
—
– 5
–
–
–
–
+
+
–
10
10
9
2
3
4
1
1,540
1,524
1,601
1,618
1,632
1,642
1,649
1,663
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
28
27
26
25
25
24
24
17
17
15
15
16
15
15
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
11
10
11
10
9
9
9
– 14
– 8
+ 4
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
+ 6
–
–
+
+
–
–
+
–
–
+
+
+
+
+
7
3
2
3
3
1
4
To/from
Irish
Republic
Beyond
British
Isles
Other
changes
Population
at end of
period
Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
– 55
– 33
+ 45
+ 43
+ 74
+ 108
+ 110
+
+
–
+
+
–
+
16
18
1
12
18
3
8
56,216
56,352
58,006
58,191
58,395
58,606
58,801
7
4
2
1
2
1
3
– 48
– 29
+ 44
+ 40
+ 72
+ 107
+ 107
+
+
–
+
+
–
+
17
18
3
12
18
1
8
54,693
54,815
56,388
56,559
56,753
56,957
57,138
– 29
– 17
+ 58
+ 45
+ 68
+102
+108
+
+
–
+
+
–
+
13
14
1
10
16
1
9
49,459
49,634
51,277
51,439
51,621
51,820
52,010
9
3
5
2
1
1
1
– 27
– 15
+ 60
+ 45
+ 67
+ 99
+ 104
+
+
–
+
+
10
12
2
8
15
—
+ 9
46,660
46,821
48,378
48,533
48,707
48,903
49,089
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
– 2
– 2
– 2
—
+ 2
+ 2
+ 5
+
+
+
+
+
3
2
1
2
1
—
—
2,799
2,813
2,899
2,906
2,913
2,917
2,921
+
+
–
+
+
4
4
2
2
2
—
– 1
5,233
5,180
5,111
5,120
5,132
5,137
5,128
–
1,524
1,538
1,618
1,632
1,642
1,649
1,663







1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
—
—
—
—
—
—
—







1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
thousands
Population at
start of
period







Mid-year to
mid-year
Scotland
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
Northern Ireland
1971–76
1976–81
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
54
O f f i c e
f o r
3
3
17
13
10
7
14
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
7
4
2
1
2
1
3
1
—
+ 2
—
—
– 2
—
9 0 |
Table 6
Midyear
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Great Britain
Persons
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
All
ages
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
T r e n d s
thousands
Age-group
Under 1 1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
58,395
58,606
58,801
899
730
794
759
734
719
3,654
2,725
3,092
3,117
3,102
3,044
8,916
8,147
7,175
7,483
7,526
7,595
8,144
9,019
8,247
7,554
7,450
7,325
6,971
8,010
9,057
9,375
9,409
9,420
6,512
6,774
7,955
7,837
7,931
8,093
10,202
9,540
9,500
10,277
10,445
10,582
3,222
2,935
2,888
2,808
2,784
2,772
27,167
27,409
28,246
28,592
28,727
28,856
461
374
407
389
376
369
1,874
1,399
1,588
1,596
1,589
1,560
4,576
4,184
3,688
3,840
3,861
3,897
4,137
4,596
4,227
3,879
3,825
3,760
3,530
4,035
4,591
4,767
4,793
4,805
3,271
3,409
3,986
3,929
3,984
4,072
4,970
4,711
4,732
5,118
5,201
5,270
28,761
28,943
29,562
29,803
29,878
29,946
437
356
387
370
358
350
1,779
1,326
1,505
1,521
1,513
1,484
4,340
3,963
3,487
3,643
3,665
3,698
4,008
4,423
4,021
3,674
3,625
3,565
3,441
3,975
4,466
4,608
4,616
4,615
3,241
3,365
3,968
3,908
3,947
4,020
54,388
54,815
56,207
56,753
56,957
57,138
867
703
768
734
710
695
3,528
2,621
2,988
3,013
2,999
2,943
8,617
7,865
6,915
7,218
7,262
7,330
7,898
8,748
7,991
7,302
7,198
7,074
6,782
7,810
8,817
9,123
9,156
9,163
26,413
26,655
27,465
27,790
27,922
28,043
446
360
394
377
364
357
1,810
1,346
1,534
1,543
1,536
1,509
4,424
4,039
3,555
3,704
3,726
3,761
4,009
4,455
4,095
3,749
3,694
3,630
27,975
28,160
28,742
28,963
29,035
29,095
422
343
374
357
346
338
1,718
1,275
1,454
1,470
1,463
1,435
4,193
3,827
3,360
3,514
3,536
3,569
51,621
51,820
52,010
782
634
702
671
649
636
3,170
2,372
2,728
2,752
2,739
2,688
23,897
24,160
24,995
25,304
25,433
25,557
402
324
360
344
333
327
25,256
25,474
26,104
26,317
26,385
26,453
380
310
342
327
316
310
England and Wales
Persons
49,152
1971
1981
49,634
1991
51,100
1994
1995
1996
P o p u l a t i o n
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Persons
55,928
1971
1981
56,352
1991
57,808
1994
1995
1996
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
75–84
85 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
4,764
5,195
5,067
5,223
5,127
5,058
2,160
2,675
3,136
2,952
3,054
3,125
485
602
896
1,011
1,044
1,067
14,257
12,541
11,741
12,075
12,106
12,098
32,548
33,780
35,469
35,689
35,848
36,035
9,123
10,031
10,597
10,630
10,652
10,668
1,507
1,376
1,390
1,363
1,358
1,355
1,999
2,264
2,272
2,363
2,330
2,310
716
921
1,151
1,096
1,147
1,185
126
141
214
251
263
273
7,318
6,438
6,033
6,194
6,208
6,205
17,008
17,646
18,576
18,687
18,779
18,882
2,841
3,325
3,637
3,710
3,740
3,768
5,232
4,829
4,769
5,159
5,244
5,312
1,715
1,559
1,498
1,444
1,427
1,418
2,765
2,931
2,795
2,861
2,797
2,748
1,443
1,755
1,986
1,856
1,907
1,940
359
461
682
759
781
794
6,938
6,103
5,708
5,881
5,898
5,893
15,540
16,134
16,893
17,002
17,069
17,153
6,282
6,706
6,961
6,920
6,911
6,900
6,348
6,599
7,755
7,628
7,718
7,875
9,959
9,313
9,259
10,020
10,184
10,316
3,148
2,867
2,818
2,738
2,716
2,703
4,658
5,079
4,948
5,100
5,004
4,936
2,109
2,620
3,070
2,884
2,985
3,054
476
589
878
992
1,026
1,048
13,774
12,099
11,326
11,656
11,689
11,683
31,695
32,906
34,525
34,713
34,864
35,036
8,918
9,810
10,356
10,384
10,405
10,420
3,435
3,934
4,473
4,642
4,668
4,677
3,190
3,322
3,887
3,825
3,879
3,965
4,854
4,602
4,614
4,992
5,073
5,139
1,471
1,345
1,358
1,331
1,325
1,322
1,954
2,214
2,219
2,309
2,276
2,257
697
901
1,127
1,072
1,122
1,159
123
137
210
247
259
268
7,072
6,211
5,820
5,980
5,994
5,992
16,567
17,192
18,089
18,183
18,272
18,367
2,774
3,252
3,556
3,627
3,656
3,683
3,889
4,293
3,896
3,553
3,503
3,444
3,346
3,877
4,344
4,481
4,488
4,485
3,158
3,277
3,868
3,803
3,839
3,910
5,105
4,711
4,645
5,028
5,111
5,177
1,676
1,522
1,460
1,407
1,390
1,381
2,704
2,865
2,728
2,791
2,728
2,679
1,412
1,719
1,943
1,813
1,863
1,896
353
452
668
745
767
780
6,702
5,888
5,506
5,676
5,694
5,690
15,129
15,714
16,436
16,529
16,592
16,669
6,145
6,558
6,800
6,757
6,748
6,736
7,705
7,085
6,281
6,568
6,613
6,683
7,117
7,873
7,237
6,612
6,521
6,411
6,164
7,086
8,008
8,293
8,329
8,342
5,736
5,996
7,056
6,925
7,003
7,146
9,034
8,433
8,407
9,118
9,272
9,397
2,853
2,607
2,553
2,478
2,458
2,447
4,228
4,619
4,506
4,644
4,554
4,490
1,926
2,388
2,810
2,642
2,734
2,800
438
541
810
917
948
970
12,334
10,910
10,303
10,618
10,653
10,655
28,710
29,796
31,351
31,530
31,676
31,851
8,108
8,928
9,446
9,473
9,491
9,505
1,626
1,218
1,401
1,410
1,403
1,378
3,957
3,639
3,231
3,371
3,394
3,430
3,615
4,011
3,710
3,396
3,348
3,291
3,129
3,569
4,065
4,225
4,252
4,265
2,891
3,024
3,539
3,475
3,523
3,602
4,414
4,178
4,199
4,551
4,626
4,689
1,337
1,227
1,234
1,209
1,204
1,201
1,778
2,020
2,027
2,109
2,078
2,059
637
825
1,035
985
1,032
1,066
112
126
194
229
240
249
6,334
5,601
5,296
5,448
5,465
5,466
15,036
15,589
16,442
16,533
16,619
16,716
2,527
2,970
3,257
3,323
3,349
3,375
1,544
1,154
1,328
1,342
1,335
1,310
3,749
3,446
3,050
3,197
3,219
3,253
3,502
3,863
3,527
3,216
3,172
3,120
3,036
3,517
3,943
4,069
4,076
4,077
2,845
2,972
3,517
3,449
3,480
3,544
4,620
4,255
4,208
4,567
4,646
4,709
1,516
1,380
1,319
1,270
1,254
1,246
2,450
2,599
2,479
2,536
2,477
2,430
1,289
1,564
1,775
1,656
1,702
1,733
325
415
616
688
708
721
6,000
5,309
5,007
5,170
5,188
5,188
13,673
14,207
14,908
14,997
15,058
15,134
5,581
5,958
6,189
6,150
6,141
6,130
f o r
N a t i o n a l
O f f i c e
65–74
S t a t i s t i c s
55
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 6
continued
Midyear
England
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Wales
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Scotland
Males
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1981
1991
1994
1995
1996
56
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
All
ages
thousands
Age-group
Under 1 1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
22,569
22,795
23,588
23,882
24,008
24,129
380
306
340
326
315
309
1,537
1,147
1,322
1,332
1,327
1,304
3,734
3,430
3,043
3,175
3,198
3,233
3,421
3,790
3,507
3,207
3,160
3,106
2,965
3,377
3,859
4,012
4,039
4,051
2,733
2,856
3,344
3,286
3,333
3,410
4,161
3,938
3,957
4,289
4,360
4,420
1,261
1,154
1,159
1,136
1,132
1,129
23,843
24,026
24,620
24,825
24,896
24,960
359
292
324
309
300
293
1,459
1,088
1,253
1,268
1,262
1,239
3,538
3,248
2,873
3,010
3,033
3,065
3,310
3,650
3,333
3,039
2,998
2,948
2,875
3,327
3,739
3,862
3,871
3,872
2,688
2,807
3,322
3,259
3,289
3,351
4,354
4,009
3,964
4,304
4,378
4,437
1,329
1,365
1,407
1,422
1,425
1,428
22
18
20
19
18
17
89
70
79
77
76
74
222
209
188
196
196
197
194
221
203
190
188
185
164
193
206
213
214
214
158
168
195
189
190
192
1,412
1,448
1,484
1,491
1,491
1,493
21
18
19
18
17
16
85
66
75
74
73
71
211
199
177
186
187
188
191
213
194
177
175
172
161
190
203
207
206
206
2,516
2,495
2,470
2,486
2,489
2,486
44
35
34
32
31
30
184
128
133
133
133
130
467
400
325
333
332
331
394
445
385
353
346
339
2,720
2,685
2,637
2,646
2,647
2,642
42
33
32
31
30
29
174
121
126
128
128
125
445
380
309
318
317
316
802
805
812
16
14
13
12
12
12
64
53
54
53
52
51
786
783
820
840
844
851
16
13
13
12
12
12
62
51
51
51
50
49
Northern Ireland
Males
755
1971
1981
754
1991
781
1994
1995
1996
9 0 |
T r e n d s
O f f i c e
f o r
75–84
85 and
over
1,671
1,902
1,900
1,977
1,948
1,931
599
777
975
926
969
1,002
107
119
183
216
227
235
1,429
1,295
1,239
1,193
1,178
1,170
2,305
2,445
2,323
2,378
2,322
2,279
1,217
1,472
1,670
1,555
1,598
1,627
253
240
242
262
266
269
76
73
74
72
72
72
107
118
128
131
130
128
157
165
195
190
190
193
265
246
244
263
268
272
88
85
80
77
76
76
306
364
407
418
416
413
299
298
348
350
356
362
440
424
415
441
446
450
387
430
369
337
331
324
311
359
402
412
411
408
313
305
351
353
359
366
152
145
133
136
135
136
127
140
132
130
130
129
95
102
119
125
125
127
147
137
127
129
129
129
119
130
125
121
122
121
95
98
121
128
128
130
N a t i o n a l
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
5,982
5,280
4,991
5,137
5,155
5,158
14,209
14,717
15,539
15,626
15,709
15,803
2,377
2,798
3,058
3,119
3,144
3,167
309
392
580
648
667
678
5,666
5,004
4,720
4,874
4,893
4,894
12,918
13,416
14,088
14,177
14,237
14,311
5,259
5,605
5,812
5,774
5,765
5,755
38
48
60
60
62
65
6
7
11
13
14
14
352
321
305
311
310
308
827
871
904
907
910
913
150
173
199
204
206
207
146
154
156
158
154
151
73
91
105
101
104
106
16
22
36
40
41
42
335
305
288
295
295
294
755
791
820
820
820
824
322
352
377
376
376
375
134
118
124
122
121
121
176
194
192
200
198
197
60
77
91
86
90
92
11
11
16
18
19
19
738
610
524
531
530
526
1,530
1,603
1,646
1,651
1,653
1,651
247
282
299
304
307
309
485
456
437
461
465
469
160
142
141
138
136
135
254
265
249
256
252
249
122
155
168
157
160
163
27
38
53
57
59
59
701
579
499
507
506
502
1,455
1,506
1,528
1,532
1,534
1,534
563
600
611
607
607
606
81
87
100
104
105
108
116
109
118
126
128
131
36
32
32
33
32
33
45
50
52
54
54
54
19
20
24
25
26
26
3
4
4
4
5
5
246
227
213
214
214
213
441
454
487
504
508
515
67
73
81
83
84
85
84
88
100
105
107
111
126
118
123
131
133
135
39
37
38
37
36
36
61
66
67
69
69
69
32
36
43
43
44
45
6
9
13
14
14
14
237
215
203
205
203
203
411
420
457
472
477
484
138
148
160
163
163
164
S t a t i s t i c s
65–74
Under
16
9 0 |
Table 7
Mid-year
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Population: age, sex, and marital status
England and Wales
thousands
All ages 16 and over
16–24
Single
Married
Divorced
Males
1971
1981
4,173
5,013
12,522
12,238
187
611
1991
1992
6,075
6,111
11,718
11,672
Females
1971
1981
3,583
4,114
1991
1992
4,808
4,818
Mid-year
35–44
Widowed
25–34
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
682
698
2,539
3,095
724
485
3
10
—
1
637
906
2,450
2,508
38
151
4
4
1,221
1,287
685
684
3,139
3,042
254
238
12
10
—
—
1,765
1,871
2,053
2,015
245
249
2
2
12,566
12,284
296
828
2,810
2,939
1,907
2,530
1,255
904
9
27
2
2
326
496
2,635
2,791
63
218
12
13
11,867
11,823
1,497
1,566
2,925
2,909
2,668
2,596
542
506
30
25
1
1
1,151
1,228
2,472
2,445
312
320
8
7
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
45–64
Single
Married
Divorced
Males
1971
1981
317
316
2,513
2,519
48
178
1991
1992
473
485
2,667
2,574
Females
1971
1981
201
170
1991
1992
274
287
Widowed
65 and over
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
13
12
502
480
4,995
4,560
81
218
173
147
179
216
1,840
2,167
17
54
492
534
388
402
12
11
454
466
4,387
4,471
471
514
122
120
244
246
2,358
2,373
106
113
549
551
2,529
2,540
66
222
48
41
569
386
4,709
4,358
125
271
733
620
580
533
1,437
1,692
32
90
2,016
2,263
2,766
2,678
444
455
34
32
286
287
4,221
4,319
538
583
483
469
430
419
1,866
1,876
174
184
2,400
2,400
Population estimates by marital status for 1991 and 1992 are provisional. No account has yet been taken of statements about marital status made in the 1991 Census of Population. Final estimates will be prepared when
additional information from other sources becomes available.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
57
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 8
United Kingdom
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Great Britain
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
England and Wales
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
1993
1994
1995
1996
T r e n d s
thousands
All live
births
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Divorces
Deaths
Infant
mortality
Neonatal
mortality
Perinatal
mortality
Number Rate*
Number Rate†
Number Rate**
Number Rate†††
Number Rate*
Number Rate†
Number Rate†
Number Rate††
976.6
901.6
675.5
730.8
755.0
792.5
761.7
750.7
732.0
733.4‡
179.8
185.8
188.7
177.8
17.9
16.1
12.0
13.0
13.3
13.7
13.1
12.9
12.5
12.5‡
12.4
12.7
12.8
12.0
74.2
73.9
61.1
91.3
158.5
236.1
241.8
240.1
245.7
260.4‡
59.8
60.6
63.6
61.7
76
82
90
125
210
298
318
320
336
355‡
333
326
337
347
437.1
459.4
406.0
397.8
393.9
349.7
341.6
331.2
322.3
42.8
..
79.6
..
135.4
..
156.4 11.3
168.2 12.5
173.5 13.0
180.0
173.6
170.0
167.7‡
643.8
645.1
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
658.5
627.6
641.7
638.9
174.7
153.7
143.2
170.1
11.8
11.5
12.1
11.7
11.6
11.3
11.3
10.7
10.9
10.9
12.1
10.5
9.7
11.5
19.2
16.2
9.79
8.16
7.18
5.82
4.83
4.63
4.52
4.50
1.16
1.12
1.06
1.18
19.6
17.9
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.1
6.4
6.0
5.6
6.6
13.0
10.8
6.68
4.93
4.00
3.46
3.17
3.09
3.05
3.00
0.76
0.79
0.73
0.78
13.2
12.0
9.9
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.2
3.8
4.4
26.6
20.7
12.3
8.79
7.31
6.45
6.86‡‡
6.74‡‡
6.52‡‡
6.41‡‡
1.70‡‡
1.62‡‡
1.60‡‡
1.61‡‡
26.7
22.6
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.7
9.4
8.7
8.4
9.0
178.0‡
178.3‡
191.4‡
185.6‡
12.2‡
12.2‡
13.0‡
12.6‡
61.8‡
61.3‡
68.8‡
68.6‡
347‡
344‡
359‡
369‡
181.0
149.7
144.1
164.1
180.3‡
150.2‡
12.4
10.2
9.7
11.1
12.4‡
10.2‡
1.19
1.07
1.13
1.12
6.7
6.0
5.9
6.0
0.74
0.74
0.80
0.72
4.2
4.1
4.2
3.9
1.58‡‡
1.61‡‡
1.66‡‡
1.55‡‡
8.8
9.0
8.6
8.3
946.4
869.9
649.2
703.5
726.8
766.2
736.8
726.4
708.2
708.8
173.6
179.6
182.6
172.3
17.8
16.0
11.9
12.8
13.2
13.6
13.0
12.8
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.7
12.7
12.0
73.2
72.7
59.8
89.4
154.9
230.8
236.4
234.8
240.2
254.0
58.3
59.2
62.2
60.4
77
84
92
127
213
301
321
323
339
358
336
330
341
351
627.3
628.9
663.8
641.7
644.7
631.1
642.8
612.5
626.4
623.7
170.4
149.9
139.8
166.3
11.8
11.6
12.1
11.7
11.7
11.3
11.4
10.8
11.0
10.9
12.1
10.6
9.7
11.6
18.4
15.4
9.30
7.80
6.89
5.63
4.65
4.48
4.35
4.36
1.11
1.07
1.02
1.16
19.4
17.8
14.3
11.1
9.5
7.3
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.4
6.0
5.6
6.7
12.4
10.3
6.33
4.70
3.83
3.34
3.05
2.98
2.92
2.91
0.72
0.75
0.69
0.76
13.1
11.8
9.7
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.8
4.4
25.6
19.8
11.7
8.37
7.04
6.23
6.64‡‡
6.50‡‡
6.27‡‡
6.18‡‡
1.63‡‡
1.55‡‡
1.55‡‡
1.55‡‡
26.6
22.5
17.8
11.8
9.6
8.1
9.0
8.9
8.8
8.7
9.3
8.6
8.4
8.9
171.8
172.3
185.1
179.6
12.1
12.1
12.9
12.5
60.2
59.8
67.2
66.9
350
347
363
373
176.6
146.1
140.6
160.3
176.1‡
146.6‡
12.4
10.3
9.8
11.2
12.5‡
10.3‡
1.15
1.03
1.09
1.08
6.7
6.0
5.9
6.0
0.71
0.72
0.78
0.70
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.9
1.50‡‡
1.56‡‡
1.61‡‡
1.51‡‡
8.7
9.0
8.6
8.3
849.8
783.2
584.3
634.5
661.0
699.2
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
158.5
164.7
167.4
157.5
157.3
158.1
169.9
164.2
158.1‡
162.9‡
17.7
15.9
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
13.1
12.9
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.7
12.8
12.1
12.2
12.2
13.0
12.6
12.3‡
12.6‡
67.1
65.7
53.8
81.0
141.3
211.3
216.5
215.5
219.9
232.7
53.2
54.3
57.1
55.3
55.0
54.8
61.6
61.3
58.5‡
58.8‡
79
84
92
128
214
302
322
324
339
358
336
330
341
351
350
346
363
373
370‡
361‡
563.6
567.3
598.5
577.9
581.2
570.0
578.8
553.2
565.9
563.0
154.1
135.3
126.1
150.3
159.6
131.8
126.8
144.8
160.0‡
133.2‡
11.8 16.1
11.5 13.7
12.1
8.34
11.6
7.02
11.6
6.31
11.2
5.16
11.3
4.24
10.7
4.10
10.9
3.98
10.8
3.99
12.1
0.99
10.5
0.97
9.7
0.95
11.5
1.07
12.3
1.05
10.2
0.94
9.7
1.01
11.1
0.97
12.5‡
10.3‡
19.0
17.5
14.3
11.1
9.6
7.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.3
5.9
5.7
6.8
6.7
5.9
5.9
6.1
10.9
9.11
5.66
4.23
3.49
3.05
2.80
2.74
2.68
2.68
0.64
0.69
0.64
0.70
0.66
0.66
0.72
0.65
12.9
11.6
9.7
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.8
4.5
4.2
4.1
4.2
3.9
22.7
17.6
10.5
7.56
6.37
5.65
6.03‡‡
5.95‡‡
5.69‡‡
5.62‡‡
1.47‡‡
1.41‡‡
1.40‡‡
1.41‡‡
1.37‡‡
1.41‡‡
1.48‡‡
1.37‡‡
26.3
22.3
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
8.9
8.9
8.7
8.6
9.2
8.5
8.3
8.9
8.6
8.9
8.7
8.3
..
..
..
49.4
43.5
36.0
38.6
92.8
135.5
55.3
426.3
447.2
396.1
388.2
383.7
340.5
332.6
322.5
313.7‡
..
68.5
57.3
49.4
43.4
36.0
34.3
32.8
31.9‡
37.7‡
90.4‡
131.7‡
53.8‡
15.5‡
36.9‡
53.1‡
21.7‡
384.5
404.7
358.6
352.0
347.9
306.8
299.2
291.1
283.0‡
65.1
69.0
57.7
49.6
43.5
35.7
33.9
32.6
31.7‡
34.0‡
81.4‡
119.7‡
47.8‡
36.4‡
80.5‡
15.4‡
36.6‡
53.2‡
21.2‡
16.4‡
36.2‡
42.6
79.2
134.8
155.6
166.7
171.1
177.8
171.3
167.7‡
165.4‡
43.8‡
42.2‡
42.4‡
39.3‡
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
165.0
158.2
155.5
154.3‡
40.6‡
39.2‡
39.3‡
36.4‡
40.3‡
39.1‡
40.1‡
34.8‡
..
5.8
9.8
11.5
12.7
13.2
13.9
13.5
13.2‡
13.0‡
14.0‡
13.3‡
13.2‡
12.3‡
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.4
14.2
13.7
13.4‡
13.3‡
14.2‡
13.6‡
13.5‡
12.5‡
14.0‡
13.6‡
13.8‡
11.9‡
* Per 1,000 population all ages.† Per 1,000 live births. ** Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over.†† Per 1,000 live and still births.
‡ Provisional. ††† Per 1,000 married population. ‡‡ Figures given include stillbirths of 24–27 weeks gestation
(see Notes to tables).
Notes: 1. Rates for the most recent quarters will be particularly subject to revision, even when standard detail is given, as they are based on provisional numbers or on estimates derived from events registered in the period.
2. Deaths for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994 figures which represent the numbers of deaths occurring each year.
3. The marriage and divorce rates for 1991 onwards differ in part from those previously published because of a revision of the denominators.
58
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 0 |
Table 8
continued
Year and
quarter
England
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Wales
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Scotland
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
June
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
T r e n d s
thousands
All live
births
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Divorces
Deaths
Infant
mortality
Neonatal
mortality
Perinatal
mortality
Number Rate*
Number
Rate†
Number Rate**
Number Rate†††
Number Rate*
Number Rate†
Number Rate†
Number Rate††
805.0
740.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
636.5
629.0
613.2
614.2
149.9
155.9
158.4
149.1
148.8
149.7
160.7
155.1
149.3‡
154.2‡
17.8
15.9
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
13.1
13.0
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.8
12.8
12.1
12.2
12.3
13.0
12.6
12.3‡
12.6‡
64.2
62.6
50.8
76.9
133.5
198.9
203.6
202.7
206.8
218.2
50.1
51.1
53.6
52.0
51.5
51.4
57.8
57.4
54.8‡
55.1‡
80
85
92
129
214
301
320
322
337
355
334
328
339
349
346
344
360
370
367‡
358‡
363.8
382.3
339.0
332.2
328.4
290.1
283.3
275.5
268.3‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
146.0
150.1
156.1
149.6
147.5‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
32.2‡
77.2‡
113.5‡
45.4‡
34.5‡
76.2‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
38.5‡
37.1‡
37.4‡
34.4‡
38.2‡
36.9‡
38.0‡
32.8‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
529.0
532.4
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
541.1
517.6
529.0
526.7
144.7
126.7
118.3
141.0
149.4
123.4
118.4
135.5
149.7‡
124.4‡
44.9
43.1
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
36.6
35.4
34.5
34.9
8.5
8.8
8.9
8.3
8.4
8.3
9.1
9.0
8.7‡
8.6‡
16.6
15.7
11.9
12.7
13.1
13.2
12.6
12.2
11.8
11.9
11.8
12.1
12.1
11.3
11.6
11.4
12.4
12.3
12.0‡
11.9‡
2.8
3.1
2.9
4.0
7.8
12.3
12.9
12.7
13.1
14.4
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.8
3.8
3.7‡
3.6‡
63
71
86
112
211
323
352
360
381
412
368
371
388
397
412
396
413
425
427‡
422‡
20.7
22.4
19.5
19.8
19.5
16.6
15.9
15.5
14.7‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
7.9
8.6
8.9
8.6
8.0‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.8‡
4.2‡
6.2‡
2.4‡
1.9‡
4.3‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
2.1‡
2.0‡
1.9‡
2.0‡
2.1‡
2.2‡
2.1‡
2.0‡
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
96.5
86.7
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
63.3
61.7
60.1
59.3
15.1
14.9
15.2
14.8
14.5
14.2
15.1
15.4
18.6
16.6
12.5
13.4
12.9
13.1
12.4
12.0
11.7
11.6
11.9
11.7
11.7
11.4
11.4
11.2
11.7
12.0
6.2
7.0
6.0
8.5
13.6
19.5
19.9
19.2
20.3
21.4
5.1
4.9
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.5
5.7
64
81
93
122
206
291
313
312
337
360
336
330
337
347
354
352
366
368
41.9
42.5
37.5
36.2
35.8
33.8
33.4
31.5
30.7
30.2
3.7
9.0
11.9
6.0
3.5
8.5
11.7
6.5
..
64.1
53.8
47.5
42.8
38.7
37.6
35.1
33.7
32.8
16.4
39.8
52.0
26.2
15.3
36.9
50.6
28.2
3.6
4.8
8.1
9.9
12.8
12.4
12.8
13.1
12.2
11.1
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
..
3.9
6.5
8.0
10.7
10.6
11.0
11.4
10.7
9.9
11.5
10.8
10.5
10.1
11.7 15.2
11.5 12.9
12.0
7.83
11.6
6.50
11.5
5.92
11.2
4.86
11.2
4.00
10.7
3.83
10.8
3.74
10.7‡ 3.74
12.0
0.93
10.4
0.93
9.6
0.87
11.4
1.01
12.2
0.99
10.1
0.88
9.6
0.94
11.0
0.94
12.4‡
10.2‡
18.9
17.5
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.2
5.9
5.5
6.8
6.7
5.9
5.8
6.0
10.3
8.58
5.32
3.93
3.27
2.87
2.65
2.57
2.56
2.53
0.61
0.65
0.61
0.69
0.62
0.62
0.68
0.62
12.8
11.6
9.7
6.6
5.2
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.8
4.6
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
21.3
16.6
9.81
7.04
5.98
5.33
5.70‡‡
5.58‡‡
5.41‡‡
5.36‡‡
1.41‡‡
1.33‡‡
1.32‡‡
1.35‡‡
1.30‡‡
1.34‡‡
1.42‡‡
1.31‡‡
26.1
22.1
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.7
9.3
8.5
8.3
9.0
8.7
8.9
8.8
8.4
34.6
34.8
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
35.9
33.9
35.3
34.8
9.5
8.6
7.9
9.4
9.9
8.1
8.0
8.9
10.0‡
8.4‡
12.8
12.7
13.0
12.4
12.3
11.8
12.4
11.6
12.1
11.9
13.2
11.8
10.7
12.8
13.6
11.1
10.9
12.1
13.8‡
11.5‡
0.91
0.79
0.46
0.45
0.35
0.25
0.20
0.22
0.20
0.20
0.05
0.04
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.04
20.3
18.4
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
6.1
5.8
5.6
6.0
4.8
7.0
5.5
5.7
5.7
6.4
4.7
0.62
0.53
0.32
0.29
0.21
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.02
13.8
12.3
9.6
8.1
5.6
4.1
3.4
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.9
3.2
4.6
3.5
3.9
4.2
3.8
2.6
1.38
1.07
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
0.31‡‡
0.33‡‡
0.27‡‡
0.26‡‡
0.06‡‡
0.06‡‡
0.09‡‡
0.07‡‡
0.07‡‡
0.07‡‡
0.06‡‡
0.06‡‡
30.1
24.4
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
8.4
9.3
7.8
7.5
7.5
6.6
9.5
7.8
8.1
8.4
7.0
6.7
63.7
61.6
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
64.0
59.3
60.5
60.7
16.3
14.6
13.6
16.0
17.0
14.3
13.8
15.5
16.1
13.4
12.3
11.8
12.5
12.4
12.4
12.0
12.5
11.6
11.8
11.8
12.8
11.4
10.5
12.3
13.3
11.2
10.7
12.1
12.7‡
10.5‡
2.24
1.72
0.96
0.78
0.58
0.47
0.41
0.38
0.38
0.37
0.12
0.10
0.07
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
23.2
19.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.5
6.2
6.2
6.2
7.7
6.6
4.7
5.9
6.7
6.5
5.8
5.6
1.47
1.17
0.67
0.47
0.34
0.29
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.23
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
15.2
13.5
10.3
6.9
5.2
4.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.8
4.2
3.2
3.8
3.8
4.2
3.9
3.8
2.87
2.15
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.61‡‡
0.56‡‡
0.58‡‡
0.55‡‡
0.15‡‡
0.14‡‡
0.15‡‡
0.14‡‡
0.14‡‡
0.15‡‡
0.13‡‡
0.14‡‡
29.3
24.5
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
9.6
9.0
9.6
9.2
10.1
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
10.3
8.2
9.1
* Per 1,000 population all ages.† Per 1,000 live births. ** Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over. †† Per 1,000 live and still births.
‡ Provisional. ††† Per 1,000 married population.
‡‡ Figures given include stillbirths of 24–27 weeks gestation (see Notes to tables).
Notes: 1. See notes opposite.
2. From 1972 births for England and Wales are excluded if the mother was usually resident outside England and Wales, but included in the totals for Great Britain and the United Kingdom.
3. From 1972 deaths for England and for Wales separately exclude deaths to persons usually resident outside England and Wales, but these deaths are included in the totals for England and Wales combined,
Great Britain and the United Kingdom.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
59
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 9
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Live births: age of mother
England and Wales
Year and quarter
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
Age of mother at birth
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Total live births (thousands)
811.3
876.0
849.8
783.2
584.3
569.3
634.5
699.2
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
158.5
164.7
167.4
157.5
157.3
158.1
169.9
164.2
158.1
162.9
1961
1964(max)†
1966
1971
1976
1977(min)†
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996‡‡
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept‡
Dec‡
1997 March‡
June ‡
59.8
76.7
86.7
82.6
57.9
54.5
56.6
52.4
45.1
42.0
41.9
44.7
10.3
10.3
10.8
10.5
10.6
10.4
11.6
12.0
11.5
11.3
249.8
276.1
285.8
285.7
182.2
174.5
194.5
173.4
152.0
140.2
130.7
125.7
32.8
32.4
33.6
32.0
30.8
29.8
33.1
32.1
29.8
29.4
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
176.9
187.3
174.0
153.2
118.7
117.5
129.1
119.4
114.1
112.1
108.6
106.9
110
110
109
106
105
105
108
108
108
106
103.1
107.7
97.3
77.1
57.2
58.6
68.6
86.7
87.0
88.7
87.3
88.6
87
90
88
86
86
89
89
89
90
91
48.1
49.8
45.3
32.8
18.6
18.2
21.7
32.1
34.1
35.8
36.2
37.2
35
36
37
36
37
37
37
38
39
40
15.0
13.7
12.5
8.7
4.8
4.4
4.9
5.3
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.2
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
Mean
age at
birth
TPFR†
27.6
27.2
26.8
26.2
26.4
26.5
26.8
27.7
28.1
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.4
28.6
28.6
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.6
28.6
28.7
28.9
2.77
2.93
2.75
2.37
1.71
1.66
1.80
1.82
1.76
1.75
1.72
1.73
1.72
1.73
1.72
1.70
1.69
1.70
1.74
1.78
1.76
1.74
Age-specific fertility rates*
248.5
270.7
253.7
247.2
220.7
207.9
215.8
248.7
236.0
229.1
217.4
211.1
53.8
55.9
55.9
51.7
51.4
51.7
55.4
52.6
50.4
51.5
152.3
153.5
136.4
109.6
90.8
100.8
126.6
161.3
171.1
179.6
181.2
186.4
43.5
46.8
46.9
44.0
44.7
46.3
48.8
46.6
45.6
48.2
77.5
75.4
67.0
45.2
26.1
25.5
34.2
53.6
58.8
63.1
65.5
69.5
15.4
16.4
17.2
16.4
16.9
17.0
17.9
17.7
17.7
19.1
23.3
23.6
20.1
12.7
6.5
6.0
6.9
9.8
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.1
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.3
89.2
92.9
90.5
83.5
60.4
58.1
61.3
63.6
62.6
61.9
60.4
60.5
60.7
60.9
60.6
59.7
59.3
59.4
60.7
61.6
61.0
60.2
37.3
42.5
47.7
50.6
32.2
29.4
28.1
33.0
31.0
29.0
28.5
29.8
29
28
29
29
29
28
30
32
31
29
172.6
181.6
176.0
152.9
109.3
103.7
105.3
89.3
82.7
79.4
76.8
77.5
78
75
77
78
75
74
79
81
78
75
*
†
Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly rates and total period fertility rates (TPFRs) are seasonally adjusted.
TPFR is the average number of children which would be born if women experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the period in question throughout their childbearing lifespan. During the post Second World War
period the TPFR reached a maximum in 1964 and a minimum in 1977.
‡
Provisional.
‡‡ Provisional-rates only.
Note: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
Table 10
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
England and Wales
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
Age of mother at birth
25–29
30–34
35 and
over
Mean
All
age
ages
(years)
Thousands
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June ‡
*
†
‡
48.5
67.1
65.7
53.8
81.0
211.3
215.2
216.5
215.5
219.9
232.7
53.2
54.3
57.1
55.3
55.0
54.8
61.6
61.3
58.5
58.8
O f f i c e
f o r
25–29
30–34
35 and
over
11.9
20.6
21.6
19.8
26.4
43.4
40.1
38.2
35.9
36.3
39.3
8.9
8.9
9.4
9.1
9.3
9.2
10.3
10.6
10.2
10.0
15.5
22.0
22.0
16.6
28.8
77.8
77.1
75.0
71.0
69.7
71.1
17.2
17.0
18.1
17.5
17.0
16.6
18.8
18.7
17.4
17.1
9.3
11.9
11.5
9.7
14.3
52.4
55.9
57.5
58.5
59.6
62.3
14.4
14.9
15.5
14.8
14.7
14.6
16.6
16.4
15.6
15.5
6.2
6.9
6.2
4.7
7.9
25.7
28.9
31.4
34.0
37.0
40.5
8.7
9.3
9.6
9.4
9.5
9.7
10.8
10.5
10.2
10.6
5.6
5.8
4.3
2.9
3.6
11.9
13.3
14.4
16.1
17.4
19.4
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.6
25.40
24.33
23.78
23.34
23.47
24.84
25.21
25.46
25.80
25.98
26.08
25.89
26.03
25.99
26.02
26.04
26.15
26.11
26.02
26.13
26.29
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
6.0
7.9
8.4
9.2
12.8
30.2
31.2
32.2
32.4
33.9
35.8
33.6
33.0
34.1
35.1
35.0
34.6
36.3
37.3
37.0
36.1
Joint
Sole
Same
Different
address† address†
Percentage of total births
Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole).
Usual address of parents.
Provisional.
60
20–24
19.9
23.7
26.1
34.2
46.7
82.9
83.7
84.8
85.5
86.6
88.0
86.4
86.6
86.8
86.6
87.7
88.2
88.1
87.9
88.7
89.2
6.2
7.7
7.7
9.1
14.8
44.9
47.2
49.4
50.6
53.3
56.5
52.4
52.4
53.8
54.7
55.2
55.6
57.0
58.2
58.4
58.1
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
3.7
4.7
4.7
4.4
6.6
21.1
22.8
24.4
25.5
27.4
29.5
26.7
26.6
27.7
28.6
28.7
28.2
29.9
31.2
31.0
30.1
4.1
5.0
5.7
5.2
6.2
16.0
17.3
18.4
18.9
20.4
21.7
20.1
19.8
20.5
21.3
21.2
20.9
22.1
22.6
22.4
22.0
5.5
6.6
7.4
8.9
8.7
18.8
19.8
20.7
21.8
22.6
23.9
22.4
22.3
22.4
23.2
22.8
23.8
24.4
24.3
24.6
24.8
..
..
38.3
45.5
51.0
58.2
54.6
19.8
55.4
20.7
54.8
22.0
57.5
19.8
58.1
20.1
58.1
19.9
58.2
20.3
58.7
19.7
57.9
20.2
57.7
20.3
58.1
19.8
58.1
19.9
58.2
20.1
58.2
19.9
58.4
19.5
59.6
19.4





1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
Under
20
Registration*





Year and quarter
..
61.7
54.5
49.0
41.8
25.6
23.9
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
21.5
21.6
22.0
22.1
22.2
22.0
21.7
21.8
22.0
21.0
9 0 |
Table 11
Year and
quarter
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
Live births within marriage: age of mother, marital status, and birth order*
England and Wales
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
Live births within marriage
T r e n d s
thousands
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
Births within marriage to remarried women
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
762.8
782.8
717.5
530.5
553.5
47.9
66.2
61.1
38.1
30.1
234.3
263.8
263.7
165.6
165.7
293.2
241.9
235.7
211.0
201.5
146.1
129.5
103.4
86.1
118.7
73.5
62.9
42.1
23.9
31.5
21.7
18.4
11.6
5.8
6.0
27.69
26.99
26.41
26.69
27.28
16.3
16.8
19.4
26.7
38.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.8
1.2
2.1
2.9
3.6
3.4
4.7
6.6
10.5
13.4
5.0
5.2
6.1
8.7
14.1
4.8
3.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
2.4
1.8
1.1
1.0
1.4
33.93
32.61
33.16
30.48
30.98
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
487.9
456.9
449.2
428.2
416.8
8.9
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
95.6
77.0
69.2
67.0
54.7
196.3
178.5
170.6
157.0
148.8
135.5
139.7
145.6
144.2
145.9
43.8
46.9
49.7
51.1
53.3
7.7
8.0
8.0
8.4
8.9
28.89
29.35
29.61
29.86
30.09
39.4
35.9
35.2
33.3
32.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.7
10.8
8.7
8.1
7.2
6.4
15.8
14.8
14.9
14.0
13.9
9.1
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.2
32.49
32.89
33.07
33.26
33.52
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
105.3
110.4
110.3
102.2
102.3
103.3
108.3
102.9
99.5
104.1
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.2
15.6
15.4
15.5
14.5
13.8
13.2
14.2
13.4
12.4
12.4
39.4
41.1
40.4
36.9
36.7
37.1
38.8
36.1
34.8
36.0
34.7
37.6
37.3
34.6
35.2
36.6
38.0
36.2
35.4
37.6
12.1
12.8
13.5
12.7
13.1
13.1
13.7
13.5
13.5
14.5
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
29.74
29.86
29.90
29.93
30.06
30.11
30.07
30.14
30.25
30.36
8.2
8.5
8.5
8.1
8.1
7.9
8.4
8.1
7.8
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.3
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
33.12
33.21
33.34
33.36
33.51
33.47
33.48
33.61
33.63
33.71
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
First live births
Second live births
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
280.5
287.4
283.6
217.2
224.3
40.3
52.2
49.5
30.2
23.6
129.2
138.1
135.8
85.4
89.5
73.7
67.7
74.8
77.2
77.2
26.4
20.7
17.2
19.7
27.8
8.9
7.1
5.1
3.9
5.4
1.9
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.7
24.66
24.02
23.99
24.87
25.37
232.7
246.3
240.8
203.6
205.7
6.9
12.6
10.7
7.4
6.1
74.0
88.5
93.6
62.5
59.0
88.2
92.2
94.1
91.8
82.7
44.7
38.0
31.8
34.7
47.7
15.8
12.6
8.9
6.2
9.1
3.0
2.5
1.7
1.0
1.1
27.44
26.64
26.28
26.87
27.46
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
193.7
178.1
176.0
168.1
163.0
6.7
5.2
4.7
4.3
4.2
51.2
40.4
36.4
32.3
28.9
84.5
77.6
75.7
71.0
67.2
40.2
42.7
46.1
46.6
47.7
9.7
10.8
11.6
12.1
13.1
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
27.48
28.01
28.32
28.56
28.81
178.3
169.4
166.3
158.1
153.8
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
32.8
26.8
23.9
20.6
18.5
73.9
66.7
62.7
57.3
53.4
53.0
55.9
58.6
58.5
59.1
14.7
16.3
17.6
18.1
19.2
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.6
28.95
29.44
29.74
30.02
30.28
40.8
42.1
43.9
41.3
39.7
39.1
42.7
41.4
38.3
39.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.0
8.1
8.0
8.5
7.7
7.1
7.0
7.7
7.2
6.4
6.5
17.3
18.0
18.5
17.2
16.3
16.4
17.7
16.8
15.5
15.9
11.1
11.6
12.2
11.7
11.6
11.3
12.5
12.4
11.7
12.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.5
3.2
3.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
28.49
28.55
28.55
28.65
28.84
28.76
28.77
28.87
28.97
29.06
39.0
42.2
40.4
36.6
38.0
39.5
39.6
36.7
36.9
39.9
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
5.4
5.4
5.1
4.8
4.8
4.5
4.7
4.4
4.3
4.2
14.4
15.5
14.5
12.9
13.4
13.7
13.9
12.3
12.6
13.4
14.1
15.7
15.1
13.5
14.2
15.4
15.2
14.3
14.3
16.0
4.3
4.6
4.8
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
5.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
29.86
29.98
30.12
30.12
30.17
30.31
30.26
30.36
30.40
30.56
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Third live births
Fourth and higher order live births†
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
124.8
129.7
111.7
71.0
82.4
0.6
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.4
23.3
27.8
26.6
14.4
14.1
45.0
49.0
43.6
29.8
29.5
34.5
33.2
27.9
19.5
28.7
17.2
14.9
10.4
5.8
8.7
4.3
3.6
2.2
1.1
1.0
29.78
29.19
28.74
28.89
29.59
124.8
119.4
81.4
38.8
41.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
7.9
9.4
7.6
3.3
3.1
32.3
33.0
23.2
12.2
12.0
40.5
37.7
26.5
12.1
14.5
31.7
28.3
17.6
8.0
8.3
12.4
10.8
6.5
3.1
3.2
31.56
31.10
30.72
30.70
31.14
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
76.1
71.8
69.7
66.7
65.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
9.4
7.9
7.1
6.5
5.8
26.8
24.0
22.6
20.5
19.6
27.5
26.9
26.8
26.1
26.0
10.5
11.0
11.4
11.7
12.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
30.44
30.75
30.95
31.16
31.34
39.8
37.5
37.1
35.3
34.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
11.1
10.1
9.7
9.0
8.6
14.8
14.1
14.1
13.1
13.1
8.9
8.9
9.1
9.2
9.0
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.6
31.62
31.84
32.03
32.09
32.28
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
16.5
17.3
17.0
15.9
15.9
16.3
17.0
16.0
15.7
16.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
5.4
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.8
4.8
5.1
4.9
4.6
4.7
6.2
7.0
6.6
6.3
6.2
6.7
6.8
6.2
6.2
6.6
2.7
3.1
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
30.93
31.20
31.26
31.23
31.30
31.38
31.34
31.32
31.47
31.56
9.0
8.8
9.0
8.4
8.7
8.4
9.0
8.6
8.6
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
31.90
32.05
32.22
32.18
32.09
32.27
32.37
32.39
32.33
32.44
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
*
†
‡
Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
Mean age at birth refers to fourth births only.
Provisional.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
61
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 12
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Conceptions by age of woman at conception, 1990-1996
England and Wales
Year and quarter
1993 March
June
Sept
Dec
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March‡
June‡
All ages
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
871.5
853.6
828.0
819.0
801.6
790.3
199.8
202.5
209.7
207.0
196.5
197.6
202.0
205.4
193.2
194.1
195.2
207.8
206.3
200.7
109.2
103.3
93.0
86.7
85.0
86.2
22.2
21.4
21.4
21.7
21.3
21.3
20.7
21.8
20.9
21.3
21.0
23.0
24.2
23.7
238.6
234.1
215.0
202.9
189.6
180.4
51.3
50.2
50.8
50.5
47.8
47.6
46.2
48.0
45.2
44.7
43.3
47.2
47.2
44.4
285.1
281.1
274.8
271.4
261.5
249.9
65.4
67.6
70.0
68.4
63.9
64.2
66.8
66.6
61.4
61.1
62.0
65.4
63.8
61.8
168.3
166.3
172.9
181.9
185.9
191.2
42.6
44.4
47.8
47.1
44.4
45.0
48.2
48.3
45.8
46.4
48.4
50.6
49.4
48.8
58.2
56.9
60.1
63.5
66.7
69.2
15.2
15.7
16.4
16.2
16.1
16.3
16.9
17.5
16.6
17.2
17.2
18.2
18.4
18.3
12.1
11.9
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6
60.3
58.7
58.9
59.6
58.6
58.6
57.0
59.8
57.2
58.1
56.9
62.2
65.0
63.5
121.0
120.6
113.5
110.4
107.3
105.9
110.5
108.9
111.2
111.5
106.6
107.2
105.2
110.1
104.6
104.6
102.3
113.0
114.3
108.7
138.4
135.0
131.7
131.2
128.0
124.8
126.0
130.5
135.7
133.0
124.5
125.4
131.1
131.4
121.8
121.7
124.1
131.3
128.5
125.0
93.5
89.4
90.4
92.5
91.8
92.1
87.4
90.6
96.9
94.8
88.6
89.3
94.9
94.6
89.1
89.7
93.2
97.0
94.4
93.1
34.9
34.0
35.4
36.8
37.8
38.2
35.4
36.5
38.0
37.2
36.7
37.1
38.1
39.2
37.1
38.1
37.8
39.8
39.8
39.4
6.6
6.4
7.0
7.4
7.7
8.0
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.7
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.1
7.9
8.0
8.0
8.5
37.6
34.4
34.5
34.9
35.3
35.2
34.2
35.2
35.0
35.0
35.2
35.7
35.3
35.2
35.3
35.4
35.1
34.8
36.9
37.3
22.8
22.1
22.4
22.9
23.5
24.3
23.1
23.1
22.2
23.2
23.9
23.8
22.8
23.5
23.8
24.7
24.1
24.5
25.7
26.6
13.4
13.4
13.9
13.8
14.3
14.8
13.8
14.0
13.3
14.3
14.4
14.9
13.7
14.2
14.9
15.4
14.4
14.5
15.7
15.9
13.2
13.7
13.7
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.8
13.6
12.7
13.5
13.6
13.9
12.9
13.4
13.8
13.8
12.9
13.4
14.3
14.3
22.2
22.0
21.8
21.2
20.8
20.3
21.8
22.1
20.2
21.0
21.0
21.7
20.6
20.0
20.6
20.8
19.6
20.3
21.4
21.4
42.1
41.8
40.6
39.4
40.0
37.2
39.6
40.9
39.5
37.5
41.5
40.5
38.9
39.0
38.0
37.4
38.1
35.3
35.9
36.8
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age-group)
79.2
65.5
1990
1991
77.7
65.1
1992
76.3
61.7
1993
76.1
59.6
1994
74.7
58.6
1995
73.7
58.7
1993 March
June
Sept
Dec
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March‡
June‡
74.0
75.2
78.0
77.0
73.2
73.6
75.3
76.6
72.0
72.4
72.8
77.4
76.9
74.7
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
19.9
1990
1991
19.3
1992
19.3
1993
19.2
1994
19.5
1995
19.7
1993 March
June
Sept
Dec
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March‡
June‡
62
residents
Age of woman at conception
(a) numbers (thousands)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
‡
Notes: 1.
2.
3.
4.
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
19.5
19.5
18.5
19.3
19.7
20.0
18.8
19.3
19.8
20.2
19.3
19.6
21.0
21.3
Provisional
Conceptions are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
Rates for women of all ages, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15-44, 15-19 and 40-44 respectively.
Some rates for September 1995 onwards have been amended. These rates use mid-1996 population estimates which were previously unavailable.
Numbers of conceptions in the June 1996 quarter have been amended.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 0 |
Table 13
Year
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Males
Year
At age
20
30
50
60
70
80
64.9
65.3
66.9
67.8
68.9
69.1
69.3
69.5
50.4
50.9
52.3
53.2
54.2
54.4
54.6
54.8
40.9
41.3
42.7
43.6
44.7
44.8
45.1
45.2
22.6
23.0
24.1
24.9
26.0
26.1
26.4
26.5
15.0
15.3
16.3
16.8
17.7
17.8
18.0
18.1
9.3
9.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.1
11.3
11.3
5.2
5.5
5.7
6.0
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
1961
1971
50.6
51.1
52.5
53.4
54.5
54.6
54.9
55.0
41.1
41.5
42.9
43.8
44.9
45.0
45.3
45.4
22.7
23.1
24.3
25.0
26.2
26.3
26.5
26.7
15.1
15.4
16.4
16.9
17.9
18.0
18.2
18.3
9.3
9.5
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.2
11.4
11.4
5.2
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.6
1961
1971
71.0
72.1
73.4
73.7
74.0
74.1
65.1
65.6
67.1
68.0
69.1
69.3
69.6
69.7
63.6
64.0
65.2
66.0
67.1
49.1
49.5
50.6
51.4
52.5
39.6
40.1
41.1
41.9
43.0
21.6
22.0
22.9
23.5
24.6
14.4
14.6
15.4
15.8
16.6
9.0
9.1
9.5
9.9
10.4
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.7
6.1
1961
1971
1991
66.3
67.3
69.1
70.2
71.4
1992
1993
1994
71.5
71.7
71.9
67.2
67.3
67.4
52.5
52.7
52.8
43.1
43.2
43.4
24.6
24.8
24.9
16.6
16.8
16.9
10.4
10.5
10.6
65.0
64.6
65.3
66.4
67.9
68.2
68.4
68.6
50.5
50.1
50.8
51.8
53.3
53.6
53.8
54.0
41.0
40.7
41.4
42.4
43.8
44.1
44.4
44.5
22.8
22.6
23.1
23.9
25.2
25.5
25.6
25.8
15.3
15.0
15.6
16.0
17.0
17.2
17.4
17.5
9.5
9.4
9.6
10.0
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9
United Kingdom
67.9
1961
1971
68.8
70.8
71.9
73.2
73.4
73.7
73.9
England and Wales
68.1
1961
1971
69.0
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
Scotland
1961
1971
1981
1986
Northern Ireland
67.6
1961
1971
67.6
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
69.1
70.6
72.3
72.5
72.8
72.9
Females
At
birth
5
1991
1992
1993
1994
T r e n d s
Expectation of life (in years) at birth and selected age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
At
birth
1981
1986
P o p u l a t i o n
At age
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
73.8
75.0
76.8
77.7
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.2
70.4
71.4
72.7
73.5
74.4
74.4
74.6
74.7
55.7
56.7
57.9
58.7
59.5
59.6
59.8
59.9
46.0
47.0
48.1
48.9
49.7
49.8
50.0
50.1
27.4
28.3
29.2
29.8
30.7
30.7
30.9
31.0
19.0
19.8
20.8
21.2
21.9
22.0
22.1
22.2
11.7
12.5
13.3
13.8
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.5
6.3
6.9
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.3
8.4
8.4
74.0
75.2
77.0
77.9
79.0
79.1
79.3
79.4
70.7
71.6
72.9
73.6
74.6
74.6
74.8
74.9
56.0
56.9
58.1
58.9
59.8
59.8
60.0
60.1
46.2
47.1
48.3
49.0
49.9
50.0
50.2
50.3
27.6
28.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
30.9
31.1
31.2
19.1
20.0
20.9
21.4
22.1
22.1
22.3
22.3
11.8
12.6
13.4
13.9
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.6
6.4
7.0
7.5
7.9
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.5
1991
72.0
73.7
75.3
76.2
77.1
68.9
70.1
71.2
71.9
72.6
54.2
55.4
56.4
57.1
57.8
44.5
45.6
46.7
47.3
48.1
26.1
27.2
27.9
28.4
29.1
17.9
19.0
19.7
20.1
20.6
10.9
11.9
12.7
13.0
13.4
5.9
6.7
7.2
7.5
7.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
1992
1993
1994
77.1
77.3
77.4
72.6
72.8
72.9
57.8
58.0
58.1
48.1
48.2
48.3
29.1
29.3
29.4
20.6
20.7
20.8
13.4
13.4
13.5
7.7
7.8
7.8
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.7
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.1
1961
1971
72.4
73.7
75.5
76.7
78.0
78.3
78.4
78.4
69.5
70.4
71.5
72.5
73.7
73.9
74.0
74.0
54.8
55.6
56.8
57.7
58.9
59.1
59.2
59.2
45.1
45.9
47.1
47.9
49.1
49.3
49.4
49.4
26.5
27.3
28.2
28.9
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.3
18.1
18.9
19.9
20.4
21.3
21.5
21.6
21.6
11.0
11.7
12.7
13.0
13.8
13.9
14.0
14.0
6.0
6.5
7.2
7.2
7.8
8.0
7.9
7.9
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1981
1986
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 1991 Census. All figures are based on a three-year period, see Notes on Tables for further information.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
63
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 14
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Deaths: age and sex
England and Wales
Year and quarter
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
All ages
Age-group
Under 1* 1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
288.4
300.1
289.0
287.9
277.6
279.6
267.6
272.7
269.8
7.97
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
2.41
2.37
2.29
2.29
1.23
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.51
0.43
0.40
0.44
0.92
0.68
0.45
0.32
0.34
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.24
0.69
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.31
1.54
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
0.91
0.84
0.89
0.91
1.77
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
1.60
1.55
1.56
1.41
3.05
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
3.81
4.07
4.10
4.03
6.68
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
5.78
5.77
5.86
5.86
21.0
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
13.4
12.9
13.4
13.5
55.7
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
33.3
31.3
30.8
30.1
89.8
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
78.9
76.3
74.5
71.5
71.9
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
93.8
88.2
91.6
91.2
26.1
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
44.5
43.2
46.6
48.1
278.9
298.5
288.9
293.3
292.5
299.2
285.6
293.2
293.2
5.75
3.46
2.90
2.59
2.19
1.84
1.75
1.68
1.70
0.98
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.44
0.37
0.36
0.34
0.33
0.57
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.42
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.25
0.20
0.23
0.19
0.63
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.39
0.36
0.39
0.43
0.79
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
0.58
0.54
0.52
0.52
1.84
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
1.80
1.77
1.84
1.88
4.53
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
3.63
3.67
3.64
3.67
13.3
12.8
10.5
8.76
8.37
8.61
8.69
8.99
8.84
30.8
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
20.4
19.0
18.8
18.3
64.0
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
55.2
53.9
52.7
50.5
95.0
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
100.9
94.2
96.4
97.3
60.4
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
105.0
101.0
107.5
109.3
0.37
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.22
0.19
0.19
0.21
0.20
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.21
0.19
0.19
0.15
0.21
0.17
0.90
0.88
0.82
0.71
0.69
0.59
0.55
0.57
0.57
0.51
0.50
0.58
0.61
0.53
0.56
0.61
0.58
0.63
0.49
0.55
0.63
0.68
0.63
0.93
0.96
0.83
0.82
0.86
0.83
0.83
0.87
0.82
0.84
0.85
0.82
0.83
0.89
0.86
0.77
0.96
0.83
0.78
0.79
0.89
0.82
0.88
0.97
0.92
0.89
0.87
0.94
0.91
0.96
0.96
0.94
0.94
0.96
0.95
1.01
1.01
0.93
0.88
1.03
0.98
0.85
0.95
0.99
0.93
0.90
2.31
2.09
1.83
1.67
1.76
1.67
1.66
1.66
1.63
1.60
1.67
1.68
1.69
1.69
1.67
1.54
1.75
1.68
1.61
1.55
1.67
1.58
1.56
7.07
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.62
4.24
3.99
4.05
4.01
4.17
3.80
3.94
4.07
4.34
3.96
3.82
4.11
4.12
3.96
3.84
4.11
4.16
3.99
20.1
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.8
13.3
12.4
12.2
12.0
13.4
12.2
11.5
12.5
13.2
12.1
11.1
12.4
13.1
11.7
11.2
12.0
12.2
11.5
50.5
50.3
45.6
42.9
38.5
37.9
36.2
35.9
34.7
38.5
35.5
33.6
37.1
39.8
35.0
31.9
36.8
38.5
33.6
31.6
35.2
36.2
33.1
113.0
116.4
105.2
101.1
93.6
93.3
89.5
88.8
85.5
100.1
87.4
79.7
91.2
98.9
84.6
77.4
94.5
97.6
80.4
76.1
87.8
99.6
81.2
231.8
243.2
226.5
214.8
197.1
202.3
188.6
194.3
193.2
214.8
178.0
162.7
199.4
220.5
181.0
164.6
211.4
230.7
177.7
166.3
198.3
241.8
183.4
0.24
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.12
0.12
0.14
0.15
0.12
0.17
0.13
0.12
0.10
0.12
0.09
0.13
0.14
0.11
0.13
0.39
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.25
0.27
0.28
0.22
0.29
0.25
0.23
0.28
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.30
0.26
0.27
0.31
0.32
0.28
0.42
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.31
0.29
0.27
0.34
0.32
0.28
0.29
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.30
0.34
0.25
0.35
0.60
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.45
0.45
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.41
0.40
0.45
0.46
0.44
0.44
0.47
0.47
0.46
0.45
0.46
0.44
0.41
1.59
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.06
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.04
1.08
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.05
1.02
1.03
1.09
1.08
1.03
1.00
1.03
1.09
1.07
4.32
4.30
3.80
3.23
2.91
2.73
2.68
2.72
2.62
2.74
2.70
2.58
2.71
2.79
2.74
2.51
2.83
2.71
2.46
2.58
2.71
2.74
2.70
10.0
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.1
7.9
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.9
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.7
7.1
6.7
7.5
7.6
6.9
6.7
7.2
7.7
6.8
26.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
22.0
22.0
21.3
21.3
20.8
22.8
20.3
20.1
21.9
23.4
20.4
19.3
21.9
23.4
19.7
19.0
20.9
22.5
19.4
73.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.6
59.4
56.9
56.6
56.1
63.2
54.8
51.1
58.5
62.2
54.2
49.5
60.8
64.6
52.4
49.9
57.7
65.4
53.0
185.7
196.6
178.2
171.0
163.8
156.5
146.6
151.8
151.7
166.8
138.0
130.1
152.0
171.6
142.6
131.8
161.4
182.2
138.9
129.7
156.4
196.2
141.1
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age-group)
Males
12.1
19.8
0.76
1971
1976
12.5
16.2
0.65
1981
12.0
12.6
0.53
1986
11.8
11.0
0.44
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June ‡
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
11.2
11.1
10.6
10.7
10.6
11.5
10.3
9.6
10.9
11.9
10.3
9.5
11.3
11.9
10.0
9.5
10.8
11.8
10.1
8.3
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.3
7.0
6.4
7.1
7.3
6.8
6.3
7.2
7.6
6.6
6.3
6.9
6.8
6.8
0.40
0.36
0.31
0.28
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.26
0.35
0.32
0.27
0.25
0.30
0.34
0.30
0.25
0.38
0.31
0.29
0.44
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.19
0.17
0.14
0.17
0.13
0.11
0.23
0.13
0.11
0.13
0.17
0.16
0.15
11.0
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.3
11.4
10.9
11.1
11.1
12.0
10.4
9.9
11.2
12.3
10.6
9.8
11.8
12.8
10.3
9.9
11.4
13.1
10.4
15.1
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.9
5.1
5.0
5.6
5.3
5.1
4.7
6.1
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.3
0.63
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.28
0.27
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.26
0.22
0.27
0.28
0.25
0.22
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.19
0.30
0.28
0.23
0.29
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.09
0.09
0.15
0.13
0.10
0.13
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.13
0.10
*
Rates per 1,000 live births. Some minor amendments have been made to the data from 1994 onwards as an incorrect denominator was previously used.
‡
Provisional.
Note: Deaths for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994 figures which represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year.
64
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 0 |
Table 15
Year and
quarter
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Northern and
Yorkshire
11.2
11.3
11.3
12.8
10.6
10.1
11.6
12.6
10.8
Infant deaths (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
8.5
1991
1993
6.9
1994
6.8
1995
6.6
1996
6.4
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.1
5.8
6.0
6.7
Neonatal deaths (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
4.9
1991
1993
4.3
1994
4.4
1995
4.5
1996
4.1
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
4.4
3.7
4.4
4.0
Trent
*
†
‡
1.
T r e n d s
8.9
8.8
9.1
7.6
Anglia and
Oxford
North
Thames
South
Thames
South and
West
West
Midlands
North
West
11.2
11.4
9.7
9.8
10.0
9.9
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.6
10.8
11.0
12.0
12.1
10.8
11.0
10.9
12.2
10.5
9.9
11.1
12.6
10.4
9.4
9.6
9.6
10.9
9.1
8.5
9.9
11.1
9.0
9.5
9.7
9.5
10.8
8.9
8.4
9.8
11.0
8.8
10.9
11.1
10.9
12.7
10.3
9.7
11.0
13.0
10.2
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.9
10.6
10.2
11.4
13.4
10.9
10.5
10.9
10.6
12.2
9.9
9.5
10.9
12.2
10.1
11.5
11.6
11.6
13.1
10.8
10.4
12.0
12.9
11.0
8.0
7.0
7.2
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.8
5.3
5.6
5.2
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
6.5
6.2
6.1
5.6
5.6
6.7
4.9
4.9
5.9
6.5
6.4
5.2
5.8
6.1
6.6
5.9
5.8
6.3
6.4
5.6
5.0
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.1
6.0
5.2
8.7
7.0
7.2
7.1
6.8
6.3
7.2
7.1
6.8
7.5
6.5
6.2
6.6
6.4
8.2
6.5
5.2
5.6
4.7
4.7
5.1
4.6
4.2
3.7
3.9
4.6
4.6
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.4
3.7
3.2
4.3
3.9
3.4
4.2
4.4
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.4
3.5
3.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
3.7
3.9
4.1
3.9
4.2
4.0
4.2
3.6
3.6
3.1
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.5
4.7
3.6
5.9
4.8
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.6
5.6
5.2
4.7
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.2
4.1
5.2
4.4
3.4
3.5
7.2
8.5
7.9
7.2
7.7
6.8
9.0
7.6
7.5
8.0
9.2
9.1
9.0
9.0
10.5
8.5
8.0
9.2
7.4
8.9
8.1
8.6
8.6
8.0
9.1
9.2
8.0
7.0
7.8
7.8
7.7
7.5
7.4
7.0
8.0
7.4
9.9
9.9
10.6
10.2
10.2
9.1
10.7
10.9
10.1
7.8
8.9
9.2
8.6
8.7
9.2
9.6
7.8
8.3
Perinatal deaths (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)
8.7
8.6
1991†
1993
9.4
8.6
1994
9.1
9.1
1995
9.4
9.5
1996
8.6
8.7
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
P o p u l a t i o n
Deaths: subnational
Regional offices *
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)
11.8
1991
1993
11.8
1994
1995
1996
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
8.1
8.7
9.4
8.5
As constituted on 1 April 1996
Figures given are based on stillbirths of 28 completed weeks gestation or more (see Notes to tables).
Provisional
Death figures represent the number of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994 figures which represent the number of deaths which occurred in each year.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
65
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 16
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Deaths: selected causes (International Classification)* and sex
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
All
deaths
Cancer
Number
(thousands) Rate†
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Diabetes
mellitus
disease
Hypertensive
disease
Stomach
Intestines
Pancreas
Lung
Breast
Uterus
Prostate
(151)
(152–3)
(157)
(162)
(174–5)
(179–82)
(185)
(250)
(401–5)
280.8
288.6
288.4
300.1
289.0
277.6
279.6
267.6
272.7
269.8
71.9
65.0
61.5
69.2
74.3
65.5
60.7
72.2
75.6
63.8
61.2
69.3
74.3
64.3
1,256
1,239
1,207
1,246
1,196
1,121
1,109
1,057
1,072
1,056
1,152
1,030
964
1,085
1,185
1,033
947
1,126
1,189
1,003
953
1,078
1,178
1,009
..
..
30.3
28.7
26.1
20.7
18.2
18.4
16.9
16.6
18.3
17.9
18.5
19.0
16.6
17.8
16.6
16.5
16.5
16.7
16.8
16.5
15.7
15.7
17.0
16.9
17.6
19.0
18.8
21.9
21.2
20.7
20.8
20.0
20.6
20.7
19.9
21.6
20.5
20.3
20.6
21.7
20.7
18.8
19.9
20.8
20.9
20.7
9.3
10.6
11.5
11.8
12.4
11.9
11.3
11.0
10.9
11.1
11.7
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.9
10.8
11.2
10.5
10.5
11.3
11.2
11.3
10.8
11.1
86.9
96.9
105.2
110.3
108.8
94.2
86.0
83.9
80.2
77.8
84.3
81.6
82.5
87.0
82.0
80.9
76.2
81.7
79.3
76.9
77.4
77.4
74.5
75.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.4
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
16.4
16.8
16.9
19.1
21.3
34.6
34.1
34.5
34.8
34.4
35.6
33.6
33.4
35.3
36.9
33.8
32.2
36.3
34.2
33.3
33.6
36.3
32.1
33.3
5.9
6.5
7.9
8.5
8.3
14.4
11.2
10.9
11.2
11.1
11.8
11.2
9.6
10.9
12.5
11.2
9.8
11.4
12.4
10.7
10.1
11.3
12.5
10.3
31.7
21.5
17.5
14.1
10.2
6.1
5.4
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.1
4.3
5.3
5.7
4.8
3.9
5.4
6.0
4.9
4.4
4.8
5.9
5.6
271.0
275.0
278.9
298.5
288.9
292.5
299.2
285.6
293.2
293.2
77.9
68.1
65.7
74.0
79.8
69.8
65.4
78.2
84.1
68.0
65.6
75.5
85.7
68.9
1,136
1,115
1,104
1,176
1,134
1,127
1,140
1,085
1,114
1,108
1,201
1,037
990
1,116
1,227
1,061
984
1,175
1,278
1,035
986
1,136
1,314
1,045
..
..
20.5
19.5
17.1
12.7
11.3
11.2
10.5
9.5
10.9
11.1
10.9
12.0
10.5
10.0
10.8
10.8
9.3
9.5
9.6
9.8
9.3
9.8
23.2
22.3
23.9
25.3
23.7
24.0
22.3
22.4
21.6
21.3
22.5
22.1
22.8
22.2
21.5
20.7
21.9
22.4
21.3
21.3
21.0
21.5
19.4
21.8
8.0
9.0
9.7
10.9
10.8
11.8
11.5
11.5
11.6
11.5
11.2
11.4
11.9
11.7
11.8
11.7
11.5
11.4
11.5
11.3
11.9
11.3
11.6
10.9
13.9
17.8
22.2
27.4
33.1
42.0
41.7
42.0
42.0
42.0
42.3
40.3
42.4
42.8
42.0
41.0
40.5
44.5
42.2
39.5
42.5
43.5
40.2
40.5
38.9
39.7
44.3
46.4
49.1
53.2
49.6
48.9
47.4
46.2
49.5
48.0
49.4
48.7
48.4
46.7
45.5
49.0
48.2
44.9
45.2
46.7
44.2
45.6
16.7
16.0
15.3
14.6
13.9
12.2
10.6
10.0
10.1
10.0
9.7
9.3
10.6
10.5
9.8
10.4
10.5
9.7
10.2
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.1
10.3
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
10.6
11.3
13.0
11.9
10.3
17.5
13.1
12.2
12.7
12.0
13.4
11.9
11.3
12.2
13.8
12.0
11.5
13.4
13.2
11.8
10.9
12.2
12.7
11.1
40.5
27.6
20.3
16.7
11.6
7.1
6.5
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.8
5.5
5.0
6.1
7.7
5.7
5.2
6.0
7.6
6.0
5.2
7.4
7.8
6.2
*
The Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases, 1975, came into operation in England and Wales on 1 January 1979. ONS has produced a publication containing details of the effect of this Revision
(Mortality statistics: comparison of 8th and 9th revision of the International Classification of Diseases, 1978 (sample), Series DH1 no.10).
†
Per 100,000 population.
‡
Provisional.
Notes: 1. Between 1 January 1984 and 31 December 1992, ONS applied the International Classification of Diseases Selection Rule 3 in the coding of deaths where terminal events and other ‘modes of dying’, such as cardiac
arrest, cardiac failure, certain thromboembolic disorders, and unspecified pneumonia and bronchopneumonia, were stated by the certifier to be the underlying cause of death and other major pathology appeared on the
certificate. In these cases Rule 3 allows the terminal event to be considered a direct sequel to the major pathology and that primary condition was selected as the underlying cause of death. Prior to 1984 and from 1993
onwards, such certificates are coded to the terminal event. Further details may be found in the annual volumes Mortality statistics: cause 1984, Series DH2 no. 11, and Mortality statistics: cause 1993 (revised)
and 1994, Series DH2 no 21.
2. On 1 January 1986 a new certificate for deaths within the first 28 days of life was introduced. It is not possible to assign one underlying cause of death from this certificate. The ‘cause’ figures for 1986 onwards
therefore exclude deaths at ages under 28 days.
3. Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year, except for 1993 and 1994, which represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year.
66
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 16
continued
Rates per 100,000
Ischaemic
heart
disease
Cerebrovascular
Pneumonia
Influenza
Bronchitis and
allied
conditions
Chronic
liver
disease
and cirrhosis
Congenital
anomalies
Road
vehicle
accidents**
Accidental
falls**
Suicide
(410–14)
(430–8)
(480–6)
(487)
(490–6)
(571)
(740–59)
(E810–29)
(E880–8)
(E950–9)
297.3
323.1
347.5
371.1
368.8
329.9
315.3
292.2
285.8
276.9
325.5
289.3
256.8
297.9
327.7
279.9
241.6
294.7
313.8
267.8
244.3
282.0
300.1
260.3
..
..
129.9
119.3
110.1
104.6
89.7
86.2
86.9
87.2
95.9
84.7
78.2
86.3
98.4
83.6
75.7
90.0
99.8
85.9
75.4
87.6
96.0
82.7
63.4
68.9
72.7
98.8
90.3
39.6
82.7
75.5
83.8
83.8
91.7
69.3
61.1
80.0
101.3
73.1
62.4
98.7
115.0
70.9
61.7
87.7
132.3
73.3
15.5
7.0
1.3
10.5
0.9
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.7
0.0
105.2
106.8
91.6
85.3
72.8
73.6
69.6
61.3
64.5
60.8
75.9
56.6
49.9
63.3
78.8
58.2
48.4
72.8
82.2
54.3
45.9
61.0
88.8
53.2
3.3
3.1
3.4
4.3
4.8
7.1
6.8
7.5
8.5
8.8
7.6
7.1
7.4
8.1
8.9
8.0
8.4
8.6
8.8
8.5
8.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
12.2
11.1
10.2
7.7
6.9
3.5
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.5
2.1
3.1
2.8
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.3
2.7
3.0
2.3
21.5
22.8
20.0
17.4
..
12.8
9.7
9.2
8.9
9.1
8.9
8.5
9.2
10.2
8.9
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.4
8.5
8.5
9.8
9.7
9.6
8.2
7.9
7.6
6.8
..
5.4
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.7
6.2
5.1
5.2
5.6
5.4
5.1
4.7
5.8
6.0
5.2
5.1
6.3
6.3
6.2
13.3
11.9
9.5
9.7
11.4
12.2
11.3
11.2
11.0
10.4
10.9
11.1
11.7
11.1
11.5
10.8
10.3
11.3
10.7
9.8
10.2
10.9
9.9
10.0
210.1
222.3
237.9
266.6
259.4
264.1
254.7
235.5
228.6
222.7
263.3
230.0
207.4
242.0
260.0
222.5
198.1
234.3
257.7
210.1
195.9
227.5
245.0
207.9
..
..
193.5
184.1
169.0
165.1
146.9
141.2
142.3
142.7
157.1
135.1
127.7
145.1
157.2
138.5
126.5
147.3
162.4
137.3
126.5
144.8
159.0
132.7
63.7
78.1
88.0
125.6
126.5
72.2
128.7
113.9
125.9
125.1
144.9
101.5
87.5
122.4
155.6
109.3
91.3
147.9
178.4
103.3
88.1
130.9
217.2
103.1
15.0
8.2
1.5
16.4
1.6
0.7
1.1
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
1.6
1.6
0.1
0.0
0.4
3.6
0.0
39.0
38.8
31.8
32.3
28.7
41.8
43.4
40.1
43.7
43.6
52.2
35.4
30.7
42.3
52.5
38.2
31.5
52.8
61.0
37.2
30.4
45.7
67.0
36.1
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.4
4.1
5.2
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.7
5.2
4.6
5.1
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.3
5.7
6.3
5.6
5.5
5.6
6.3
6.4
10.8
9.2
8.3
6.4
5.4
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.8
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.7
8.0
8.8
9.1
7.6
..
5.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.9
3.1
3.8
4.6
4.1
4.0
3.4
3.5
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
14.4
14.3
14.7
13.0
..
7.9
8.4
7.7
8.3
8.3
8.8
7.0
7.1
7.8
9.4
8.0
7.1
8.5
9.1
8.5
7.5
8.2
11.2
9.0
9.0
8.7
6.7
5.9
6.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.0
2.8
3.0
2.6
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.6
3.2
**
T r e n d s
Year and
quarter
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 Mar
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March‡
June‡
Industrial action by registration officers in 1981 meant that information normally supplied by coroners about violent deaths is not available, and therefore no comparable figures can be compiled for these categories for 1981.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
67
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 17
9 0 |
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Abortions: marital status, age, and gestation/weeks (residents only)
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
All ages
Numbers (thousands)
1971
1976
1981
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
All
women
Single
women
94.6
101.9
128.6
167.4
157.8
156.0
153.1
166.4
40.7
38.4
39.2
37.6
40.3
37.4
38.4
37.0
43.0
42.7
41.2
39.5
42.5
44.3
50.9
70.0
110.9
103.8
102.2
101.5
113.1
26.7
25.2
25.6
24.7
26.7
24.7
25.5
24.6
29.2
29.1
28.0
26.9
29.2
13.8
14.8
17.2
23.6
22.2
20.5
23.2
22.7
21.8
20.3
20.4
19.7
21.7
20.0
20.3
19.6
23.6
23.5
22.4
21.5
23.8
Rates (per thousand women 14–49)
8.4
1971
1976
8.9
1981
10.6
13.1
12.3
12.1
12.7
12.9
12.8
12.0
12.1
11.6
12.7
11.7
11.9
11.4
13.4
13.4
12.7
12.2
13.4
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1997 March
All women
Married
women
Gestation (weeks)
Other*
Under
16
16–19
20–34
41.5
40.3
42.4
37.8
35.4
34.5
32.7
33.9
9.14
8.46
8.73
8.16
8.65
8.12
8.14
7.81
8.76
8.58
8.45
8.08
8.47
8.7
10.7
16.1
18.7
18.7
19.3
18.9
19.4
4.90
4.72
4.94
4.76
4.98
4.59
4.80
4.52
5.07
5.04
4.75
4.54
4.82
2.30
3.43
3.53
3.16
3.08
3.22
3.24
3.60
0.80
0.77
0.81
0.85
0.86
0.76
0.80
0.82
0.88
0.91
0.92
0.89
0.84
18.2
24.0
31.4
31.1
25.8
25.1
24.7
28.5
6.69
6.14
6.27
6.02
6.45
5.98
6.26
6.04
7.33
7.27
7.06
6.89
7.47
56.0
57.5
74.9
114.7
109.7
108.1
105.7
112.9
28.4
26.6
27.1
26.0
27.9
25.9
26.4
25.4
29.6
29.1
27.7
26.5
28.7
5.3
5.3
5.9
5.5
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.5
5.1
5.2
4.8
5.2
4.9
4.8
4.6
5.3
5.1
5.0
4.8
5.5
28.7
23.6
18.3
15.1
14.0
13.9
14.8
13.9
14.3
13.6
14.1
13.6
14.5
13.2
13.7
12.9
14.7
14.6
13.6
13.0
12.0
3.5
4.4
4.5
5.6
5.3
5.2
5.8
5.8
5.2
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.7
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.5
13.9
16.9
19.4
24.0
22.0
21.9
22.3
24.9
23.7
21.5
21.7
20.9
22.8
20.9
21.7
20.9
25.7
25.5
24.5
23.9
26.4
11.4
11.2
14.0
19.6
18.7
18.7
19.1
19.3
19.7
18.3
18.4
17.7
19.4
17.8
17.9
17.3
20.4
20.0
18.9
18.1
19.9
35–44
45 and
over
Age not
stated
Under
13
15.9
14.7
17.6
17.9
18.8
19.1
19.1
21.0
4.71
4.79
4.97
4.63
4.97
4.68
4.87
4.54
5.13
5.43
5.35
5.11
5.40
0.45
0.48
0.56
0.41
0.49
0.44
0.45
0.42
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.10
1.80
1.79
0.56
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
70.4
82.1
108.5
147.5
140.4
138.9
136.7
147.5
35.9
34.1
35.0
33.9
35.7
33.5
34.2
33.3
38.1
37.7
36.4
35.4
37.3
5.6
5.3
5.9
5.1
5.5
5.5
5.9
6.1
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.3
5.8
5.4
5.6
5.2
6.0
6.3
6.2
5.9
6.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
*
Other women includes divorced, widowed, separated, and not stated.
±
The rates differ from those previously published due to a revision of the denominators which remain provisional and may be subject to further revision.
Note: In calculating rates, the population of separated women has been estimated using Labour Force Survey data.
68
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
13–19
20.6
15.3
17.4
17.8
15.6
15.4
14.6
16.7
4.38
3.76
3.89
3.35
4.16
3.52
3.73
3.23
4.38
4.45
4.21
3.65
4.68
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
20 and
over
Not
stated
0.85
0.98
1.72
2.07
1.84
1.85
1.81
2.14
0.47
0.50
0.48
0.40
0.42
0.43
0.50
0.46
0.53
0.57
0.55
0.50
0.52
2.69
3.56
1.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
9 0 |
Table 18
Year and
quarter
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
International migration: age and sex
United Kingdom
All ages
thousands
0-14
15-24
25-44
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Males
Females
Persons
Males
Females
200
191
153
250
267
216
213
253
245
258
43
51
103
49
52
56
98
52
103
100
83
120
122
99
101
126
130
122
20
26
53
31
26
24
49
24
97
91
71
130
144
117
112
127
115
136
23
24
50
17
26
32
49
28
33
32
30
45
48
33
34
36
28
30
7
6
11
5
8
3
12
8
17
16
16
22
20
17
17
22
20
13
3
4
9
4
3
1
6
2
17
17
14
23
28
16
17
14
9
18
3
2
3
1
5
1
6
5
65
64
48
79
83
66
73
76
88
91
12
16
46
14
13
15
45
17
28
32
24
34
36
25
28
30
40
36
4
7
21
9
5
4
22
6
37
32
24
45
47
41
44
47
48
55
8
10
25
5
9
12
24
11
240
210
233
213
239
227
216
191
192
212
41
37
62
51
45
45
76
47
124
118
133
107
120
113
113
92
102
104
23
21
29
28
22
25
36
21
116
93
100
106
119
114
103
98
90
108
18
16
33
23
22
20
39
27
51
40
49
37
39
35
32
26
29
32
9
6
8
6
7
9
12
4
26
20
25
17
17
17
20
15
14
13
6
2
3
3
4
5
3
1
24
21
24
20
22
19
11
11
15
20
3
4
6
3
3
4
9
3
64
52
51
47
59
58
49
48
54
47
7
9
24
15
6
9
21
11
28
26
29
19
31
25
20
19
24
16
2
6
9
6
3
3
6
4
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 28
– 11
– 2
+ 62
+ 54
+ 46
+ 2
+ 14
+ 41
– 3
+ 7
+ 11
+ 22
+ 5
– 22
– 18
– 50
+ 13
+ 2
– 14
– 12
+ 34
+ 28
+ 18
– 3
+ 5
+ 23
+ 3
+ 3
– 1
+ 12
+ 4
– 19
– 1
– 29
+ 24
+ 26
+ 3
+ 10
+ 28
+ 26
+ 27
+ 5
+ 8
+ 18
– 6
+ 4
+ 12
+ 10
+ 2
– 17
– 8
– 19
+ 8
+ 8
– 3
+ 2
+ 10
—
– 2
– 2
– 1
+ 3
– 1
+ 1
– 7
—
+ 4
– 10
– 4
– 9
+ 5
+ 3
—
– 3
+ 6
+ 6
—
– 2
+ 2
+ 6
+ 1
– 1
– 4
+ 3
+ 2
– 8
– 4
+ 10
+ 3
+ 5
– 2
+ 6
+ 3
– 6
– 2
—
– 2
– 3
– 2
+ 2
– 3
– 3
+ 2
+ 1
+ 12
– 2
+ 32
+ 24
+ 8
+ 23
+ 29
+ 34
+ 44
+ 5
+ 7
+ 22
– 1
+ 7
+ 6
+ 24
+ 6
—
+ 6
– 5
+ 15
+ 6
—
+ 8
+ 11
+ 16
+ 20
+ 1
+ 1
+ 12
+ 2
+ 2
+ 1
+ 16
+ 2
Persons
45 and over
Males
Females
81
77
60
101
109
91
87
117
107
111
22
22
42
21
26
30
36
20
48
43
34
49
54
44
44
60
57
59
12
12
22
11
17
13
18
11
33
34
26
51
55
48
43
57
50
53
10
10
20
10
9
16
18
9
36
25
22
28
29
33
30
29
31
31
4
4
14
8
3
6
16
7
99
97
108
98
113
110
106
95
85
115
22
15
24
24
26
24
35
29
57
59
64
55
58
57
56
49
52
64
13
10
14
14
13
16
21
14
+ 1
+ 7
+ 2
+ 18
+ 18
+ 8
+ 15
+ 17
+ 17
+ 24
+ 4
+ 6
+ 10
– 3
+ 6
+ 6
+ 8
+ 4
– 18
– 20
– 48
+ 3
– 3
– 18
– 20
+ 22
+ 22
– 3
– 1
+ 7
+ 18
– 3
– 1
+ 5
+ 1
– 9
– 10
– 16
– 31
– 5
– 4
– 13
– 11
+ 11
+ 5
– 5
– 2
+ 2
+ 8
– 3
+ 4
– 2
– 3
– 3
Persons
Males
Females
21
18
15
25
27
26
20
24
22
25
3
6
4
9
5
8
5
8
10
9
9
16
12
14
12
15
14
15
1
4
1
8
2
5
3
5
11
9
7
10
15
12
8
9
8
11
2
2
3
1
3
3
2
3
42
38
44
43
55
52
51
46
33
51
9
5
9
10
14
9
14
15
27
21
25
32
28
24
28
23
24
18
4
7
6
7
5
2
8
3
12
12
14
17
15
14
17
10
13
11
2
3
3
5
3
1
6
2
15
9
11
15
13
10
11
13
11
6
2
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
– 9
– 4
– 18
+ 8
+ 1
– 5
– 8
+ 11
+ 17
+ 1
+ 1
+ 5
+ 10
—
– 5
+ 8
+ 4
– 6
– 6
– 3
– 10
– 7
– 1
+ 1
– 9
+ 2
– 1
+ 8
– 1
—
– 2
+ 2
—
+ 6
– 3
+ 5
– 2
– 3
– 5
– 1
– 3
– 1
– 6
+5
+1
+ 3
– 1
+ 1
– 2
+ 3
– 1
+ 5
– 3
+ 3
– 4
—
– 4
– 6
+ 2
+ 2
– 3
– 4
– 2
+ 4
—
– 1
—
– 1
+ 1
+ 2
—
+ 2
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the
country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
69
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 19
Year and
quarter
9 0 |
T r e n d s
International migration: country of last or next residence
United Kingdom
All
countries
European
Union*
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
thousands
Commonwealth countries
Australia,
New
Zealand,
Canada
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
South
Africa
Other foreign countries
India†,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka
Pakistan†
Caribbean
Other
USA
Middle**
East
Other**
200
191
153
250
267
216
213
253
245
258
21
................
32
25
69
72
69
53
76
71
79
52
40
20
30
47
34
36
34
39
38
8
9
3
18
8
7
9
8
4
11
24
................
15
18
16
12
9
13
10
11
11
:
12
9
10
12
8
7
6
5
9
5
4
3
5
3
2
2
1
2
3
36
36
26
29
39
29
25
36
37
27
22
16
17
26
25
18
23
30
27
33
:
:
11
15
8
5
9
11
11
12
31
27
21
32
41
35
36
43
37
36
43
51
103
49
52
56
98
52
17
11
31
12
18
11
27
24
9
12
11
7
6
16
11
4
1
1
1
1
2
4
5
1
2
3
3
4
2
4
3
2
—
1
2
1
2
2
3
2
1
—
—
1
—
2
—
—
3
5
20
9
5
3
14
5
3
5
14
5
6
5
17
5
2
3
5
1
2
3
4
2
4
11
15
7
9
7
14
6
240
210
233
213
................
239
227
216
191
192
212
31
38
32
58
72
57
65
52
55
71
99
63
79
50
53
44
48
38
44
49
21
21
23
2
................
6
5
3
4
5
5
8
4
2
4
5
3
4
2
2
4
:
2
1
2
3
2
2
3
2
1
8
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
2
1
23
21
23
19
27
21
22
21
19
27
17
21
25
34
32
37
33
24
28
23
:
:
23
16
13
13
9
11
9
6
34
37
21
................
26
27
42
27
33
27
26
41
37
62
51
45
45
76
47
13
8
19
14
14
16
29
12
10
10
9
14
11
9
11
17
1
1
1
3
1
1
—
3
—
1
1
—
1
1
1
—
1
—
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
1
1
1
—
—
—
—
4
4
7
3
4
6
14
3
5
6
11
5
5
5
8
5
1
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
5
5
10
8
7
4
11
5
–40
–19
–79
+37
+28
–11
– 2
+62
+54
+46
–10
................
– 6
– 8
+ 1
—
+11
–12
+24
+16
+ 9
–46
–23
–58
–21
– 6
–10
–12
– 5
– 4
– 11
–13
–12
–20
+16
+ 2
+ 2
+ 6
+ 4
– 1
+ 7
+16
................
+12
+16
+12
+ 8
+ 6
+ 9
+ 8
+ 9
+ 7
:
+10
+ 8
+ 8
+ 8
+ 6
+ 5
+ 3
+ 4
+ 8
– 3
—
+ 1
+ 3
+ 2
– 1
– 1
– 3
– 1
+ 2
+14
+15
+ 3
+10
+13
+ 8
+ 3
+15
+18
—
+ 6
– 4
– 8
– 8
– 7
–19
–10
+ 6
—
+ 9
:
:
–12
—
– 5
– 7
– 1
—
+ 3
+ 5
– 3
–10
................
– 1
+ 7
+14
– 8
+ 9
+10
+10
+ 9
+ 2
+14
+41
– 3
+ 7
+11
+22
+ 5
+ 5
+ 3
+11
– 2
+ 4
– 5
– 2
+ 12
–
+
+
–
–
+
—
—
+ 1
– 2
+ 2
+ 3
+ 4
– 2
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ 1
—
—
—
—
+ 2
—
—
– 1
—
+12
+ 6
+ 1
– 3
—
+ 2
– 2
– 1
+ 3
—
+ 1
– 1
+ 9
—
—
—
+ 2
– 1
+ 1
+ 2
+ 2
—
– 1
+ 6
+ 6
—
+ 2
+ 3
+ 3
+ 1
1
2
2
7
5
7
—
– 13
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
2
2
2
3
1
3
2
2
*
1
1
2
1
2
1
3
2
From 1995 onwards figures for the European Union include estimates for Austria, Finland and Sweden. The figures for the years 1976–1994 show the European Community as it is was constituted before 1st January
1995 (including the former German Democratic Republic). For 1971 the EC figures are for the original six countries only.
†
Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka in 1971.
** Middle East is included in the Other category in 1971 and 1976.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the
country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
70
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 0 |
Table 20
Year and
quarter
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
International migration: citizenship
United Kingdom
thousands
Citizenship (number in thousands)
All citizenship
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
British
Non-British
European
Union*
Commonwealth+†
Other
foreign*+
All
Old+
British
citizens as
percentage of
all citizens
New†
200
191
153
250
267
216
213
253
245
258
92
87
60
120
117
99
92
118
91
98
108
104
93
130
150
116
122
135
154
160
..
18
11
35
31
21
24
29
41
52
53
58
47
50
67
52
51
................
52
63
60
17
16
11
16
25
18
21
................
20
28
28
36
42
36
34
42
34
29
32
35
31
54
................
29
36
46
52
43
48
................
55
50
48
46
45
39
48
44
46
43
47
37
38
43
51
103
49
52
56
98
52
19
21
33
19
22
24
33
20
25
30
70
30
30
32
65
32
8
5
22
6
7
9
23
13
11
12
26
14
12
16
21
11
8
8
7
5
6
11
8
4
4
4
19
9
6
5
13
7
5
13
22
10
11
7
21
9
43
41
32
39
42
42
33
38
240
210
233
213
239
227
216
191
192
212
171
137
164
132
137
133
127
108
118
137
69
73
69
81
102
94
89
82
74
75
..
18
15
10
32
16
21
22
20
24
29
29
29
31
34
28
31
................
29
27
29
13
15
13
19
17
14
15
12
16
16
16
14
16
13
18
14
15
16
11
13
40
................
27
25
40
36
50
37
32
27
23
71
65
71
62
57
59
59
57
62
65
41
37
62
51
45
45
76
47
28
22
36
32
32
29
48
29
13
15
26
19
13
16
27
18
4
4
7
5
6
7
6
5
4
6
10
7
4
5
11
8
3
3
4
6
2
4
3
6
1
2
5
2
2
2
8
2
5
6
9
7
3
4
10
6
68
60
58
62
70
64
64
61
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 28
– 11
– 2
+ 62
+ 54
+ 46
– 79
– 51
–104
– 12
– 20
– 34
– 35
+ 10
– 27
– 39
+ 39
+ 31
+ 25
+ 49
+ 47
+ 23
+ 33
+ 53
+ 81
+ 85
..
—
– 4
+25
– 1
+ 5
+ 3
+ 7
+21
+28
+24
+29
+18
+19
+32
+24
+20
................
+23
+36
+31
+ 2
+ 14
+ 41
– 3
+ 7
+ 11
+ 22
+ 5
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
+ 11
+ 15
+ 44
+ 10
+ 17
+ 16
+ 38
+ 14
+ 4
+ 1
+15
+ 1
+ 2
+ 1
+18
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+16
+ 6
+ 7
+11
+10
+ 3
10
1
3
13
9
5
16
9
+ 4
+ 2
– 2
– 3
+ 8
+ 4
+ 6
................
+ 7
+11
+13
+
+
+
–
+
+
+
–
5
5
3
1
3
7
4
2
+20
+28
+20
+21
+24
+20
+14
+16
+25
+18
+14
................
+ 2
+11
+ 5
+16
– 7
+10
................
+23
+23
+25
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
+ 2
+ 2
+13
+ 7
+ 4
+ 4
+ 5
+ 5
—
+ 8
+13
+ 3
+ 8
+ 4
+11
+ 3
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
*
From 1995 onwards figures for European Union citizenship includes estimates for Austrian, Finnish and Swedish citizenship. The figures for the years 1976–1994 show the European Community as it was constituted
before 1st January 1995 (including citizens of the former German Democratic Republic). For 1971 citizens of the EC are included in the Other foreign category.
+
Figures for South African citizenship are included in Old Commonwealth and excluded from the Other foreign category with effect from 1994.
†
For all years Pakistani citizens have been included with the New Commonwealth and excluded from the Other foreign category.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. It is highly likely that they also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the
country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. For adjustment required, see Notes to tables.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
71
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 21
England
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
Northern Standard regions of England
Ireland
North
Yorkshire East
and
MidHumber- lands
side
East
Anglia
South East
South
West
Total
Greater
London
Remainder
West
Midlands
North
West
12.1
9.7
7.2
8.8
12.5
10.7
10.9
14.1
11.4
59.5
48.5
39.3
46.7
49.8
47.1
46.3
46.9
48.4
88.8
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
87.8
87.6
90.8
90.8
94.8
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
93.3
96.4
101.3
102.1
66.8
60.6
53.7
61.3
58.1
57.2
60.5
61.6
64.2
269.2
222.2
220.8
269.7
223.1
224.3
237.4
250.5
253.8
..
..
155.2
182.8
148.8
150.5
160.4
170.7
168.0
..
..
253.8
309.5
249.9
259.0
271.7
276.9
288.7
137.9
123.8
108.4
148.8
120.7
121.1
127.7
131.6
135.5
91.5
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
83.0
84.8
90.0
90.6
106.6
87.5
74.6
83.5
90.1
92.0
94.3
98.4
99.3
22.0
23.3
36.6
26.2
23.0
23.8
36.9
27.4
10.2
11.4
20.2
12.9
10.7
11.4
19.4
13.9
12.3
10.8
13.4
12.1
12.2
10.3
13.2
11.3
2.8
2.3
3.5
1.5
3.5
2.5
2.9
2.7
9.0
9.2
16.6
12.1
9.3
10.1
17.5
11.5
17.2
17.1
36.4
20.2
16.5
17.0
35.8
21.5
19.2
20.4
38.9
22.8
19.4
20.2
37.9
24.4
11.7
13.3
21.5
15.0
12.5
13.6
22.9
15.2
50.4
54.0
85.5
60.6
52.1
54.8
84.6
62.3
37.5
37.2
53.3
42.6
37.1
35.8
52.6
42.5
56.8
60.9
93.0
66.2
59.1
63.9
93.3
72.4
25.6
29.2
44.7
32.1
27.2
29.5
47.6
34.3
17.1
18.0
31.1
23.9
17.9
18.5
31.1
23.1
19.1
19.6
34.2
25.5
20.0
20.5
34.1
24.7
114.7
104.8
92.8
100.7
112.2
108.2
106.3
107.9
105.3
49.0
43.9
41.9
49.8
47.4
48.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
71.0
54.5
48.2
57.9
46.7
46.9
49.0
52.0
54.5
21.6
14.2
10.1
15.1
9.3
11.5
12.2
12.3
11.8
64.0
48.6
47.2
53.7
49.5
50.3
52.2
54.2
53.5
97.1
78.5
73.4
90.5
85.4
87.5
91.9
97.6
98.2
83.5
77.2
71.8
84.8
81.4
83.2
86.2
91.9
94.3
47.6
44.3
42.9
51.0
47.7
48.7
50.7
52.9
54.0
285.5
249.3
211.1
273.9
264.7
252.2
252.9
257.5
262.0
..
..
187.1
232.4
202.1
203.4
206.9
207.6
213.4
..
..
212.0
264.2
238.2
234.0
241.2
247.0
251.5
99.5
94.7
88.1
102.5
98.9
100.6
103.9
108.0
109.8
100.5
89.5
78.5
94.8
87.9
92.2
95.1
98.1
101.0
118.3
98.8
94.1
111.4
99.9
100.8
104.9
110.8
109.0
23.8
23.3
34.4
24.8
25.0
23.0
33.1
26.2
10.4
11.1
18.1
13.5
10.9
11.5
17.8
13.2
10.6
11.3
16.2
11.5
11.5
11.6
16.6
12.9
2.4
2.1
4.9
2.9
2.0
1.9
4.9
3.0
10.8
11.8
18.7
12.9
11.0
11.6
18.2
12.8
19.0
21.1
33.3
24.0
19.8
21.2
33.7
23.7
17.9
19.2
32.1
22.7
18.7
20.1
32.5
23.1
10.6
10.6
18.9
12.8
10.9
11.0
19.0
13.2
50.7
52.2
91.3
62.5
52.4
52.9
92.6
64.9
44.8
45.2
66.6
50.7
45.4
46.3
67.7
54.5
49.9
51.2
85.5
60.1
51.1
51.4
86.3
63.0
21.6
21.9
38.1
26.3
22.3
22.3
38.1
27.4
18.7
20.4
35.4
23.4
19.9
21.0
35.8
24.5
21.9
23.6
38.9
26.2
21.9
23.3
37.8
26.2
+ 19.3
+ 0.6
+ 1.5
+ 14.9
– 16.4
– 9.7
– 2.9
+ 0.2
+ 5.8
+ 9.2
+ 8.1
+ 2.7
+ 5.4
+ 4.0
+ 3.2
+ 1.5
+ 1.6
+ 2.0
– 19.0
– 4.1
– 1.3
– 14.1
+ 9.2
+ 7.2
+ 2.6
– 3.5
– 7.5
– 9.5
– 4.5
– 2.9
– 6.3
+ 9.2
– 0.8
– 1.2
+ 1.8
– 0.4
– 4.5
– 0.1
– 7.9
– 7.1
+ 0.3
– 3.2
– 6.0
– 7.3
– 5.1
– 8.3 + 11.4
– 0.3 + 6.8
– 5.1 + 4.8
– 11.9 + 17.1
– 0.4 + 8.1
+ 0.3 + 10.1
– 4.4 + 10.2
– 6.8 + 9.4
– 7.4 + 7.8
+ 19.1
+ 16.3
+ 10.8
+ 10.3
+ 10.4
+ 8.5
+ 9.8
+ 8.8
+ 10.2
– 16.3
– 27.0
+ 9.7
– 4.2
– 41.7
– 27.8
– 15.5
– 7.0
– 8.2
..
..
– 32.0
– 49.6
– 53.3
– 52.9
– 45.9
– 36.9
– 45.4
..
..
+ 41.8
+ 45.3
+ 11.7
+ 25.0
+ 30.4
+ 29.9
+ 37.2
+ 38.4
+ 29.1
+ 20.2
+ 46.4
+ 21.8
+ 20.5
+ 23.8
+ 23.6
+ 28.7
– 9.0
– 13.8
– 11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
– 9.2
– 10.3
– 8.1
– 10.4
+ 11.7
– 11.4
– 19.5
– 27.9
– 9.8
– 8.8
– 10.5
– 12.4
– 9.7
–
–
+
+
–
+
+
+
– 0.1
+ 0.3
+ 2.0
– 0.6
– 0.2
– 0.1
+ 1.6
+ 0.7
+
–
–
+
+
–
–
–
+ 0.4
+ 0.2
– 1.4
– 1.4
+ 1.5
+ 0.6
– 2.0
– 0.3
– 1.8
– 2.5
– 2.1
– 0.9
– 1.7
– 1.5
– 0.7
– 1.3
–
–
+
–
–
–
+
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
+
–
–
–
+
–
–
– 7.2
– 8.0
– 13.3
– 8.0
– 8.3
– 10.5
– 15.1
– 12.0
+ 6.9
+ 9.7
+ 7.5
+ 6.1
+ 8.0
+ 12.4
+ 7.0
+ 9.4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
+
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1.9
0.0
2.2
1.4
1.9
0.8
3.8
1.2
1.6
0.5
2.8
0.6
0.6
1.3
3.4
1.6
1.8
4.1
3.0
3.8
3.3
4.1
2.1
2.2
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
1.3
1.2
6.9
0.2
0.7
0.2
5.5
1.3
Note: Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See notes to tables for affects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
72
thousands
52.0
50.4
46.9
43.9
55.8
54.1
51.7
48.5
47.0
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
1996 March
June
Sept
Dec
Scotland
58.2
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
51.5
52.0
54.7
55.3
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
1995 March
June
Sept
Dec
Wales
133.9
105.4
94.3
115.6
95.8
98.6
103.4
108.1
111.1
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Internal migration: recorded movements between England, Wales, Scotland,
Northern Ireland, and standard regions of England
Year and
quarter
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
9 0 |
T r e n d s
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
1.2
2.8
2.6
2.3
1.6
2.6
3.9
2.0
0.3
1.8
5.8
1.9
0.3
1.9
8.1
2.6
4.0
7.3
6.6
5.8
5.0
7.2
9.5
6.9
1.7
2.5
4.3
0.5
2.0
2.6
4.7
1.4
2.8
4.0
4.7
0.7
1.9
2.8
3.7
1.6
9 0 |
Table 22
Year and
quarter
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
*
†
‡
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
First marriages*: age and sex
England and Wales
All ages
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Per cent
aged
under 20
Mean
age
(years)
Median
age
(years)
Number
(thousands)
Rate†
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
253.0
222.8
224.2
213.5
206.1
198.5
23.3
60.2
89.0
33.5
21.5
57.4
88.9
30.4
22.9
55.9
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
44.6
37.0
36.7
35.5
33.1
31.8
15.2
38.7
56.6
21.3
14.0
36.9
56.6
19.3
14.8
36.1
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
6.0
3.4
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
2.3
2.7
2.0
1.6‡
2.0‡
2.6‡
1.8‡
1.4
1.8
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
63.5
42.5
39.4
35.2
30.5
26.5
14.8
35.1
53.3
18.6
12.6
30.4
47.4
15.5
12.2
26.5
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
104.3
76.5
75.1
73.5
68.7
65.2
28.5
82.3
122.5
40.6
25.3
77.1
121.2
36.4
26.7
74.8
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
73.7
64.5
62.0
62.4
56.6
59.6
25.4
66.6
94.5
39.0
25.7
69.2
105.0
37.9
29.2
71.7
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
30.9
31.5
32.0
32.9
30.3
32.7
16.5
34.0
45.8
24.7
17.0
37.4
51.4
24.6
19.5
40.8
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
3.8
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
2.1
1.2
0.9
1.9
2.2
1.0
0.9
1.8
1.9
1.0
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
26.3
27.5
27.9
28.2
28.5
28.9
28.7
28.5
28.3
29.0
29.1
28.9
28.7
29.5
29.4
29.2
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
25.1
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.9
27.6
27.5
27.4
27.9
28.0
27.9
27.8
28.3
28.3
28.2
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
256.8
224.8
225.6
215.0
206.3
198.5
23.1
60.6
89.7
33.0
21.0
57.7
89.8
30.0
22.4
56.1
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
55.7
46.9
46.8
45.5
41.7
40.1
18.9
49.1
71.9
26.5
17.2
46.8
72.0
24.1
18.2
45.6
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
24.1
14.0
12.5
10.7
9.5
9.0
7.0
10.0
13.1
8.0
6.3
9.2
13.0
7.4
6.3
8.5
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
102.4
74.0
71.0
66.0
56.4
50.2
24.1
66.8
102.2
31.8
20.9
59.1
93.8
26.4
20.4
52.8
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
108.8
89.4
90.4
92.2
84.7
83.4
34.3
102.6
149.9
51.3
31.2
98.5
155.3
47.7
34.4
98.7
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
67.1
62.8
63.3
64.5
58.3
62.2
28.6
66.8
95.4
42.0
27.9
72.0
105.9
42.3
31.4
77.4
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
28.6
30.4
30.2
31.5
28.7
31.3
17.0
32.0
40.3
25.3
16.8
36.0
47.1
25.0
20.1
39.9
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.0
13.9
7.9
6.6
5.7
6.2
5.1
8.5
4.6
4.2
6.9
8.3
4.5
4.1
7.0
7.9
4.2
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
24.1
25.5
25.9
26.2
26.5
26.9
26.7
26.5
26.3
27.0
27.0
27.0
26.7
27.5
27.3
27.2
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
23.1
24.6
25.0
25.3
25.7
26.0
25.6
25.7
25.5
26.0
25.9
26.0
25.9
26.4
26.3
26.3
See also Table 8.
Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
Provisional.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
73
P o p u l a t i o n
Table 23
T r e n d s
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Remarriages*: age, sex, and previous marital status
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
Remarriages of divorced persons
All ages
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1992
1993
1994‡
1995‡
1994 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
*
†
**
‡
9 0 |
Remarriages of
widowed persons
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population
at ages
Mean
age
(years)
Median
age
(years)
Number
(thousands)
Rate**
Number
Rate†
(thousands)
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
83.4
74.9
78.5
77.0
76.6
77.0
12.0
21.2
26.8
16.7
11.3
21.7
28.3
15.6
12.1
22.3
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
90.8
61.6
61.0
59.1
55.8
56.1
35.5
62.0
77.5
48.3
33.4
63.4
81.8
45.1
35.5
65.4
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
138.6
79.9
89.8
81.2
100.8
96.9
74.4
110.3
124.8
93.4
72.1
91.6
138.8
84.5
66.4
77.1
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
157.8
108.4
105.5
96.1
100.1
89.9
61.1
113.2
144.9
80.6
53.1
101.1
138.2
66.5
55.5
95.7
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
141.0
99.5
99.6
94.3
92.5
92.0
54.6
101.4
139.1
74.3
50.5
103.4
144.3
68.9
52.9
103.5
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
105.8
72.4
72.2
70.3
67.3
68.8
41.3
75.4
95.1
57.0
39.1
78.4
102.2
54.8
43.0
81.1
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
38.5
34.3
37.6
32.4
31.5
30.2
29.9
31.4
33.6
29.5
28.8
29.9
32.2
28.2
28.1
28.5
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
39.1
40.3
40.6
40.8
41.1
41.3
41.7
41.1
40.4
41.7
42.0
41.3
40.8
41.9
42.0
41.7
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
37.7
39.0
39.2
39.4
39.6
39.8
40.3
39.7
38.8
40.4
40.6
39.8
39.1
40.4
40.4
40.2
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
11.6
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.4
7.8
1.5
2.4
2.6
1.9
1.3
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.4
2.2
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
16.7
13.1
13.1
12.6
11.9
11.0
8.6
13.6
14.6
10.7
7.5
13.0
14.6
9.5
8.0
12.5
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
80.0
73.4
77.5
75.9
76.9
76.9
12.3
21.1
26.2
17.2
11.7
21.6
27.4
16.2
12.7
22.1
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
68.7
49.0
49.5
48.0
45.4
45.4
29.4
49.9
61.3
40.2
28.0
51.1
64.1
37.9
30.1
52.4
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
190.6
113.0
123.2
106.4
130.5
111.9
91.6
132.0
172.7
125.0
81.0
120.3
146.5
99.1
85.7
112.2
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
156.2
118.5
118.8
109.7
106.8
97.7
72.6
115.5
148.4
90.1
63.2
108.7
141.2
77.1
63.4
101.6
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.7
90.1
93.1
89.3
85.0
86.2
53.6
93.3
119.9
72.7
52.0
97.7
125.6
68.8
54.1
99.0
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
75.5
55.3
56.5
56.3
53.1
54.9
33.6
59.1
71.4
48.0
32.8
61.8
78.5
46.2
36.1
64.8
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
51.2
47.4
46.4
44.9
44.4
42.8
44.7
43.7
45.9
42.8
43.5
42.6
43.6
41.1
41.4
40.6
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
36.0
37.1
37.4
37.7
37.9
38.4
37.9
38.0
37.5
38.2
38.4
38.4
38.3
38.9
38.5
38.7
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
34.7
35.6
35.9
36.2
36.3
36.6
36.3
36.5
35.9
36.8
36.5
36.7
36.4
37.0
37.0
37.3
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
11.2
8.5
8.4
8.3
7.9
7.5
1.3
2.2
2.5
1.9
1.3
2.1
2.5
1.6
1.2
2.2
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
3.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
1.8
3.0
3.4
2.6
1.8
2.9
3.4
2.2
1.7
3.0
See also Table 8.
Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
Provisional.
74
Per cent
aged
under 35
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 0 |
Table 24
Year and quarter
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1993‡
1994‡
1995‡
1995 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
1996 March‡
June‡
Sept‡
Dec‡
T r e n d s
Number (thousands)
All divorces
Decrees made absolute
All
divorces
1986
1991
1993‡
1994‡
1995‡
P o p u l a t i o n
Divorces: age and sex
England and Wales
Petitions
filed*
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
1st
marriage
2nd or
later
marriage
Per cent
aged
under 35
16 and
over
16–24
25–29
(years)
30–34
(years)
35–44
45
and over
Mean age Median
at divorce age at
divorce
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
49.7
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
165.0
158.2
155.5
40.6
39.2
39.3
36.4
40.3
39.1
40.1
34.8
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
128.0
129.8
133.5
127.5
125.1
32.7
31.5
31.6
29.2
32.3
31.2
32.1
27.9
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
25.9
29.0
31.5
30.7
30.4
7.9
7.6
7.7
7.2
8.0
7.9
8.0
6.9
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.6
14.0
13.4
13.2
14.0
13.3
13.2
12.3
14.0
13.6
13.8
12.0
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
30.9
25.9
23.5
20.0
17.1
18.6
17.7
16.4
15.8
23.9
22.8
21.6
19.3
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
31.2
32.9
31.6
28.5
26.6
28.1
27.3
26.0
25.1
29.2
28.4
29.2
24.5
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
25.1
28.5
29.3
28.3
27.9
29.6
27.9
28.4
25.7
30.3
28.5
29.2
24.9
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
18.0
20.1
21.6
20.7
20.4
21.8
20.7
20.5
18.7
22.1
21.5
22.0
19.1
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
5.2
5.6
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.5
6.2
6.3
5.9
6.5
6.5
6.4
5.7
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
45.6
42.7
40.8
39.7
38.7
38.7
38.8
38.5
38.7
38.0
37.3
37.6
36.9
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
37.8
38.6
39.0
39.3
39.6
39.5
39.5
39.6
39.6
37.2
37.3
37.3
37.4
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
36.2
37.0
37.3
37.6
37.9
37.8
37.9
37.9
37.9
..
..
..
..
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
130.7
..
..
..
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
165.0
158.2
155.5
40.6
39.2
39.3
36.4
40.3
39.1
40.1
34.8
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
128.8
130.9
134.9
128.9
126.0
32.9
31.8
31.8
29.5
32.6
31.5
32.4
28.1
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
25.1
27.8
30.2
29.3
29.5
7.7
7.4
7.5
6.9
7.6
7.6
7.7
6.6
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.4
13.9
13.3
13.1
13.8
13.2
13.1
12.1
14.1
13.5
13.9
11.9
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
30.7
27.7
26.2
22.2
19.9
21.6
20.1
18.9
18.9
26.4
25.1
24.9
21.7
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
28.6
31.3
32.1
29.6
27.7
29.5
28.1
27.9
25.3
30.7
29.3
31.3
25.6
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
22.0
25.1
26.5
26.1
25.9
27.1
26.0
26.3
24.0
28.4
27.2
27.6
23.7
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
15.8
17.2
18.8
18.0
18.1
19.3
18.4
18.2
16.7
19.5
19.1
19.6
17.0
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.5
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.7
5.2
5.2
5.3
4.6
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
55.0
52.8
51.3
50.2
48.8
48.9
48.9
48.8
48.7
48.3
47.5
47.9
47.1
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
35.3
36.0
36.4
36.7
37.0
36.9
37.0
37.1
37.1
35.4
35.5
35.4
37.4
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
33.6
34.3
34.7
35.0
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.4
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Note: The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971 – the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
*
The figures shown relate to the party who filed the petition. Petitions filed by quarter are not analysed by sex of petitioner – total figures are as follows
Number (thousands)
Number (thousands)
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
1989
1990
1991
45.1
50.2
45.7
44.5
45.3
46.8
45.0
47.7
48.2
42.1
46.0
38.4
1992
1993
1994
48.8
49.6
46.2
45.5
43.4
43.1
48.3
47.5
44.9
46.8
44.1
42.0
‡
Provisional.
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
75
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Notes to Tables
Changes to tables
A number of changes to the tables were introduced in Population
Trends 61 (see page 73 of that issue for details). Table 20 was
changed in Population Trends 70 (see page 61 of that issue for
details)
Population
the estimated and projected populations of an area include all
those usually resident in the area, whatever their nationality.
Members of HM forces stationed outside the United Kingdom are
excluded. Students are taken to be resident at their term-time
addresses.
Figures for the United Kingdom do not include the population of
the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man.
The population estimated for mid-1991 onwards are final figures
based on the 1991 Census of Population with allowance for
subsequent births, deaths and migration. Population estimates for
the years 1982-1990 have been revised, to give a smooth series
consistent with both 1981 and 1991 Census results.
Due to definitional changes, there are minor discontinuities for
Scotland and Northern Ireland between the figures for 1971 and
earlier years. At the United Kingdom and Great Britain levels these
discontinuities are negligible.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to numbers occurring in a
period; for Scotland and Northern Ireland, figures relate to those
registered in a period. See also Note on page 63 of Population
Trends 67.
Perinatal mortality
On October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed,
from baby born dead after 28 completed weeks gestation of more,
to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more.
Expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are based use current
death rates to describe mortality levels for each year. Each
individual year shown is based on a three year period, so that for
instance 1986 represents 1985-87. More details may be found in
Population Trends 60, page 23.
Pensionable ages
Age analyses of the form 45-64/59 or 65/60-74 indicate age groups
terminating at or beginning with the state pensionable age, 65 for
men, 60 for women.
Deaths
Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year,
except for 1993 and 1994, which represent the numbers of deaths
occurring in each year. See also Note on page 63 of Population
Trends 67.
Abortions
Figures relate to numbers occurring in a period.
Migration
Figures in Tables 18-20 are derived from the International
Passenger Survey (IPS), a sample survey of all passengers
travelling through major air and seaports of the United
Kingdom. Routes to and from the Irish Republic are
excluded. Migration between the Channel Islands or the
Isle of Man and the rest of the world was previously
included in the total migration to the United Kingdom.
From 1988 this has been excluded.
It is highly likely that the IPD data also exclude persons
seeking asylum after entering the country and short-term
visitors granted extensions of stay, for example as students
or on the basis of marriage. After taking account of
persons leaving the UK for a short-term period who
stayed overseas for periods longer that originally intended,
the adjustment needed to net migration ranges from about
10 thousand in 1981 to 50 thousand in the latest year
available.
A migrant into the United Kingdom is defined in these
tables as a passenger entering the United Kingdom with
the declared intention of residing here for at least a year
having lived abroad for at least a year; and vice versa for a
migrant from the United Kingdom.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia, Canada, New
Zealand and South Africa, New Commonwealth is defined as
all other Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the
United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
Figures in Table 21 are based on the movement of NHS
doctors’ patients between Family Health Services
Authorities (FHSAs) in England and Wales, and Area Health
Boards in Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Calendar year
and mid-year figures have been adjusted to take account of
differences in recorded cross-border flows between
England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland;
quarterly figures have not been adjusted.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport was
computerised in early 1991, prior to which a three month
time lag was assumed between a person moving and their
re-registration with an NHS doctor being processed onto
the NHSCR. Since computerisation, estimates of internal
migration are based on the date of acceptance of the new
patient by the FHSA (not previously available), and a one
month time lag assumed.
Marriages and divorces
Work is in progress on finalising the corresponding 1991
population estimates in the light of the 1991 Census and
76
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
Notes to Tables continued
other data sources. Once this is done, retrospective
revisions to the estimates from 1981 and 1991 may be
necessary. Until then, estimates (and the marriage and
divorce rates derived from them) from 1982 onward
should be regarded as provisional. Marriages are those
according to date of solemnisation. Divorces are those
according to date of decree absolute, and the term
‘divorces’ includes decrees of nullity.
conducted by the Social Survey Division of ONS.
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently; constituent parts
may not add to totals. Generally numbers and rates per
1,000 population are rounded to 1 decimal place (eg.
123.4); where appropriate, for small figures (below 10.0), 2
decimal places are given. Figures which are provisional or
estimated are given in less detail (eg. 123 or 7.6
respectively) if their reliability does not justify giving the
standard amount of detail. Where, for some other reason,
figures need to be treated with particular caution, an
explanation is given as a footnote.
Standard regions
Figures refer to regions of England as constituted after
local government reorganisation on 1 April 1974. The
regions, defined in terms of the new counties, were listed
in Population Trends 31, page 27.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may be provisional
(see note above on rounding) and will be updated in future
issues when later information becomes available. Where
figures are not yet available, cells are left blank. Population
estimates and rates based on them may be revised in the
light of results from future censuses of populations.
Health regions
Figures refer to health regions of England as constituted on
1 April 1982 unless otherwise stated.The regions, defined
in terms of the new district health authorities, as at 1 April
1982, were listed in Population Trends 31, page 28.
Symbols
.. not available
: not applicable
- nil or less than half the final digit shown.
Sources
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland shown in these
tables (or included in totals for the United Kingdom or
Great Britain) have been provided by their respective
General Register Offices, except for the projections in
Table 2 which are provided by the Government Actuary.
The International Passenger Survey (Tables 18-20) is
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
77
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
I N D E X TO A RT I C L E S 1 9 9 5 – 1 9 9 7
volume no.
79-83
84-87
88-90
year
1995
1996
1997
Abortion
Trends in abortion 1990–1995 (Haroulla Filakti)
87
Age structure see demographic trends
Census
Planning the 2001 Census: only four years to go (Graham C Jones) 88
From enumeration districts to output areas: experiments in the automated creation of a census output geography (David Martin)
Deaths see mortality
Demographic trends - National and subnational
Estimates
A review of 1994: England and Wales (Editorial) 82
Population review for 1995: England and Wales (Clare Gambrill and Rebecca Wood) 86
The re-based 1991 population estimates by marital status (Michael Morris) 89
1991 population estimates for areas smaller than districts (Stephen Simpson, Rachel Crossey and Ian Diamond)
Population review of 1996: England and Wales (Editorial, Olivia Christophersen) 90
Population Review series (1995-97)
(1) Structure and distribution of the population (Bob Armitage) 81
(2) Are we healthier? ( Karen Dunnell) 82
(3) Immigration to, from and within the United Kingdom (Tony Champion) 83
(4) Trends in fertility (Bob Armitage and Penny Babb) 84
(5) The population aged 60 and over (Emily MD Grundy) 84
(6) Families and households in Great Britain (John Haskey) 85
(7) Review of children Beverley Botting) 85
(8) The ethnic minority and overseas-born population of Great Britain (John Haskey)
(9) Summary of issues (John Craig) 88
Projections
1993-based subnational population projections for England (Dawn Hornsey)
90
88
81
Demographic trends — World and European
Estimates
The demographic situation in Europe (unsigned) 85
An overview of the population in Europe and North America (David Pearce,Tom Griffen, John Kelly and Lene Mikkelsen) 89
Projections
Latest population projections for the European Union (Chris Shaw, Harri Cruijsen, Joop de Beer and Andries de Jong)
Education
Trends in higher qualifications, 1971–1991 (Lak Bulusu and Ian White) 79
Elderly see social groups
Ethnic groups
The ethnic minority populations of Great Britain; their estimated sizes and age profiles (John Haskey) 84
Population review: (8) The ethnic minority and overseas-born population of Great Britain (John Haskey) 88
Families and households
Living together in Great Britain — displaying household structure through demographic pyramids (Pau Miret)
Population review: (6) Families and households in Great Britain (John Haskey) 85
Population review: (7) Review of children (Beverley Botting) 85
81
Fertility
Birth statistics 1993 (Penny Babb) 79
Fertility of the over forties (Penny Babb) 79
Trends in births outside marriage (Penny Babb and Ann Bethune) 81
Population review: (4) Trends in fertility (Bob Armitage and Penny Babb) 84
Subnational variations in conceptions (Rebecca Wood) 84
Variation in fertility between different types of local area (Bob Armitage) 87
Trends in multiple births 1938-1995 (Rebecca Wood) 87
Trends in conceptions before and after the 1995 pill scare (Rebecca Wood, Beverley Botting and Karen Dunnell)
Geographic area studies
The new OPCS area classifications (Merryl Wallace, John Charlton and Chris Denham) 79
78
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
89
90
88
9 0 |
Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
The review of parliamentary constituency boundaries — the reduction in the variation in electorates (John Craig) 81
Local government reorganisation in Scotland and Wales (Graham Jackson and Clive Lewis) 83
Which areas are healthiest? (John Charlton) 83
Variation in fertility between different types of local area (Bob Armitage) 87
From enumeration districts to output areas: experiments in the automated creation of a census output geography (David Martin) 88
1991 population estimates for areas smaller than districts (Stephen Simpson, Rachel Crossey and Ian Diamond) 90
Health and illness see also mortality
Population review: (2) Are we healthier? (Karen Dunnell) 82
A review of ‘The health of our children: decennial supplement’ (Beverley Botting) 82
Which areas are healthiest? (John Charlton) 83
The General Practice Research Database: quality of morbidity data (Jen Hollowell) 87
Our health — better or worse? findings from ‘The health of Adult Britain 1841–1994’ (unsigned) 88
Incidence of health of the Nation cancers by social class (Joanna Brown, Seeromanie Harding, Ann Bethune and Michael Rosato) 90
Longitudinal Study
Differences in mortality by housing tenure and by car access from the OPCS Longitudinal Study (Haroulla Filakti and Dr John Fox) 81
Economic activity and mortality for the 198 Census cohort in the OPCS Longitudinal Study (Ann Bethune) 83
Incidence of health of the Nation cancers by social class (Joanna Brown, Seeromanie Harding, Ann Bethune and Michael Rosato) 90
Marriage and divorce
Trends in marriage and cohabitation: the decline in marriage and the changing pattern of living in partnerships (John Haskey)
Divorce and children: Fact proven and interval between petition and decree (John Haskey) 84
The day of the week on which couples marry (John Haskey) 85
Children who experience divorce in their family (John Haskey) 87
Spouses with identical residential addresses before marriage: an indicator of pre-marital cohabitation (John Haskey) 89
Migration
Males and females — some vital differences (John Craig) 80
Population review: (3) Migration to, from and within the United Kingdom (Tony Champion)
80
83
Morbidity see health and illness
Mortality
Suicide deaths in England and Wales, 1982–92: the contribution of occupation and geography
(Sue Kelly, John Charlton and Rachel Jenkins) 80
Males and females — some vital differences (John Craig) 80
Social class differences in the mortality of men: recent evidence from the OPCS Longitudinal Study (Seeromanie Harding) 80
Differences in mortality by housing tenure and by car access from the OPCS Longitudinal Study (Haroulla Filakti and Dr John Fox) 81
Population review: (2) Are we healthier? ( Karen Dunnell) 82
Mortality in regions and local authority districts in the 1990s: exploring the relationship with deprivation
(Frances Drever and Margaret Whitehead) 82
Which areas are healthiest? (John Charlton) 83
Economic activity and mortality from the 1981 Census cohort in the OPCS Longitudinal Study (Ann Bethune) 83
Increasing mortality from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in England and Wales since 1979: ascertainment bias from increase in post mortems?
(Paul Aylin, Cleo Rooney, Frances Drever and Michel Coleman) 85
Current patterns and trends in male mortality by social class (based on occupation)
(Frances Drever, Margaret Whitehead and Murray Roden) 86
Mortality trends in the United Kingdom, 1982 to 1992 (Leonie Tickle) 86
Mortality trends by cause of death in England and Wales 1980–94: the impact of introducing automated cause coding and related changes in 1993
(Cleo Rooney and Tim Devis) 86
The time taken to register a death (Tim Devis and Cleo Rooney) 88
Mortality during the 1996/7 winter (Olivia Christophersen) 90
Occupational classifications
The ESRC review of government social classifications (David Rose, Karen O’Reilly and Jean Martin)
89
One-parent families see social groups
Population Review series (1995–97) see Demographic trends — national and subnational
Social class
Social class differences in mortality of men: recent evidence from the OPCS Longitudinal Study (Seeromanie Harding) 80
Current patterns and trends in male mortality by social class (based on occupation)
(Frances Drever, Margaret Whitehead and Murray Roden) 86
Incidence of health of the Nation cancers by social class (Joanna Brown, Seeromanie Harding, Ann Bethune and Michael Rosato) 90
Social groups — the elderly, one-person households/families, children)
Population review: (5) The population aged 60 and over (Emily MG Grundy) 84
Population review: (7) Review of children (Beverley Botting) 85
A full cumulative index for 1975–1995, by subject and by author, is available from the Executive Secretary (see page ii for address)
O f f i c e
f o r
N a t i o n a l
S t a t i s t i c s
79
P o p u l a t i o n
T r e n d s
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Wi n t e r 1 9 9 7
Contact points at ONS
People with enquires about the statistics published regularly in
Population Trends can contact the following enquiry points.
Topic
Abortion statistics – 0171-533 5208
Fertility statistics – 0171-533 5113
Migration statistics – 0171-533 5161/5165
Mortality statistics – 0171-533 5251/5246
Population estimates – 01329 813318
Population projections –
National – 0171-211 2622*
Subnational – 0171-533 5151
* Government Actuary’s Department
General enquiries
National Statistics Information and Library Service,
1 Drummond Gate,
London SW1V 2QQ
Tel 0171-533 6262
Editorial enquires for Population Trends
Publications Unit
ONS
1 Drummond Gate
London SW1V 2QQ
Tel 0171-533 5658
80
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