Mr. Cleveland Thomas
Vice Chairman
Working Party 2/3
Study Group 3
ITU-T
Botswana
July 2002
Global Trends in Telecom
Development &
Study Group 3 Activities
Global trends in telecom development
&
Study Group 3 Activities
The
state of the industry
The
state of the market
Situation
in the Regions
A Mobile Revolution
Fixed Lines vs. Mobile Users,
worldwide, Million
1'400
Mobile Users
1'200
Fixed Lines
1'000
800
600
400
200
0
1993
1995
1997
1999
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
2001
2003
Projection of revenue growth (US$bn)
1000
Actual
Service revenue (US$ bn)
900
Other: Data, Internet,
800
700
13%
Leased lines, telex, etc
Projected
Mobile
600
36%
500
Int'l
8%
400
300
200
43%
Domestic Telephone/fax
100
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
Source: ITU.
Telecommunications revenue Africa/World
(1994, 1996, 1998, 2000)
M. US$
1,000,000
513,013
620,196
722,548
(180%)
100,000
10,000
925,074
7,208
9,381
12,193
16,391
(227%)
1,000
1994
1996
1998
2000
Use of international circuits from the USA
180,000
Capacity (Mbps)
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Unused
Data
Basic voice telephony
Source: FCC
Internet users, millions
Annual rate of change
109%
Change
67%
59%
498
66%
55%
230
311
35%
37%
149
34
1995
54
1996
90
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: ITU.
The state of the market
Increasing competition

Around two-thirds of telecom subscribers now
have a choice of operator

More than 99 per cent of mobile and Internet
subscribers now have a choice of operator
Dominantly private-ownership

19 out of top 20 top public telecom operators
are partially or fully private-owned

Of the top 20 mobile operators, 16 are fullyprivate, 3 are partially private, 1 is state-owned
Independent regulators

There are currently 112 independent regulators
(only 12 in 1990)
Private, competitive, mobile & global
By
country
2%
13%
39
Status of
telecom
Ot
privatization
h
2001
113
85%
Fully or
partly private
incumbent
Other private
operators
(e.g. mobile)
No private
operators
49
By telecom
revenue
Status of telecommunication privatization , by country and by share of global revenue, 2001
Legal status of competition
Distribution by country, 2001
Monopoly
Competition
37%
38%
43%
Long
distance
Int'l
Local
Legal status of telecommunication competition, by country, 2001
78%
86%
Mobile
Internet
Mobile as the new global network
Telephone subscribers, w orld,
2'000
1'500
1'000
Fixed
500
Forecast
Mobile
0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
Mobile and fixed telephone subscribers worldwide, 1982-2005
96
98
00
02
04
Total telephone users
(fixed plus mobile) per 100 inhabitants
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
It took 35 years to
increase telephone
density by a factor
of 3.
Togo
In just 6 years,
telephone density
increased by a
factor of 6.
Benin
Uganda
Madagascar
1.0
0.5
0.0
1960
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2000
Mobile as % of total telephone subscribers, LDCs,
D.R. Congo
Cambodia
Uganda
Rwanda
Tanzania
Madagascar
Guinea
Benin
Eq. Guinea
Chad
Togo
Mozambique
Senegal
Lesotho
Burkina
Gambia
S.Leone
Zambia
Haiti
CAR
Angola
Malawi
Bangladesh
Burundi
2001
75.1
74.2
71.6
68.6
67.8
67.8
66.7
66.4
65.5
62.2
59.8
56.6
55.1
54.2
53.5
53.4
52.4
52
50.7
50.3
50
87.2
87
83.5
Distribution of population, main telephone lines,
mobile cellular subscribers and Internet users by
country economic classification, 2001
Distribution by econom ic classification, 2001
100%
80%
60%
Low
Low er Middle
Upper Middle
High
40%
20%
0%
Population
Telephones
Mobile
Internet
Growth in fixed line teledensity,
Chile and Argentina, 1986-2000
Teledensity, in Chile and Argentina
25
20
1990: Privatization w ith 7-year
exclusivity in Argentina
15
Exclusivity
extended by 3
years in
Argentina
10
5
1988: Privatization and
competition in Chile
0
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Growth in mobile teledensity,
Hong Kong SAR and Singapore, 1988-2000
Mobile penetration rate, per 100 inhabitants
90
Six additional PCS licences
aw arded in 1996
80
70
60
50
40
Hongkong
SAR: Mobile
competition
introduced in
1988 for
analogue
30
Additional
competition
introduced w ith
digital mobile in
1993
Singapore:
Mobile
competition
delayed until
April 1997
20
10
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Teledensity with rising rank
2000
1990
Rank
2000
17.8
0.6
95
159
64
4.2
0.1
141
189
48
Botsw ana
21.6
2.1
91
129
38
El Salvador
21.8
2.4
90
125
35
Jamaica
34.1
4.5
71
106
35
Hungary
67.4
9.6
43
78
35
Mauritius
38.6
5.4
67
100
33
Chile
44.4
6.7
61
93
32
Philippines
12.4
1.0
112
143
31
Morocco
13.3
1.6
107
136
29
Paraguay
20.7
2.7
92
120
28
Cambodia
1.2
0.0
167
194
27
17.2
2.4
98
125
27
137.0
31.4
5
31
26
45.6
8.6
60
85
25
Country
China
Viet Nam
Cape Verde
Taiw an, China
Poland
Rank
1990
Change
Teledensity with falling rank
Country
Armenia
Iraq
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Angola
Liberia
DPR Korea
Canada
Turkmenistan
Cuba
Moldova
Kazakhstan
Comoros
Ukraine
2000
15.6
2.9
3.6
6.9
7.9
0.7
0.2
4.6
96.1
8.4
4.4
16.5
12.5
1.0
22.7
1990
15.7
3.9
4.5
6.9
7.2
0.8
0.4
3.8
58.6
6.0
3.1
10.6
8.0
0.8
13.6
Rank
2000
102
149
143
128
125
177
190
138
33
123
140
99
111
171
87
Rank
1990
60
109
105
92
90
146
162
111
6
97
115
74
87
149
66
Change
-42
-40
-38
-36
-35
-31
-28
-27
-27
-26
-25
-25
-24
-22
-21
Total (fixed-line + mobile) telephone subscribers per 100
inhabitants, LDCs
Mobile
1.4
Fixed-line
Total
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Outgoing telephone traffic 1995-2000
1,000,000
1995
211%
Million minutes
100,000
10,000
167%
168%
160%
2000
182%
160%
1,000
100
10
1
Africa
Americas
Asia
Europe
Regions
Oceania
World
Telephone tariffs (2000)
Connection
M.
Subscription
Connection
M.
Subscription
Local
call
(US$,
3 min)
World
86
6.3
113
9.8
0.07
5.7
Africa
62
5.0
77
5.7
0.08
12.7
Americas
105
8.3
134
17.6
0.07
3.1
Asia
108
4.4
139
8.0
0.04
5.5
Europe
84
7.8
117
9.7
0.10
1.1
Oceania
55
8.6
79
14.3
0.13
3.7
Residential (US$)
Business (US$)
Subscripti
on as % of
GDP
per capita
Cellular tariffs (2000)
US$
Connection
M. Subscription
World
75
Africa
3 minutes local call
Peak
Off Peak
16.6
0.62
0.42
79
13.3
0.56
0.39
Americas
58
21
0.78
0.57
Asia
83
14.9
0.47
0.32
Europe
62
13.8
0.59
0.41
Oceania
91
35.7
1.40
0.75
Accounting Rates Trend
1.2
ITU
USA
1.060
1.040
1.010
Average settlement rate (in SDR)
1
1
TAS
TAF
0.980
TAL
0.950
0.910
0.865
0.845
0.805
0.8
0.670
0.635
0.6
0.505
0.595
0.5800.540
0.513
0.541
0.487
0.449
0.401
0.4
0.474
0.467
0.420
0.374
0.406
0.374
0.347
0.306
0.334
0.272
0.318
0.252
0.230
0.2
0.287
0.195
0.153 0.129
0.122
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Year s
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Telephony : Some DATA(2000)
Intern’l Telephone revenue : 54 billion US $
Settlement transaction :
27 billion US $
Net Settlement payment to developing
countries amount to around : 5 billion US$
Int’l Infrastructure costs reduction: < 20 %
Annual average traffic increase : 8 %
Average Settlement rate reduction: ? %
18%
19%
18%
17%
Global international telephone calls
Billions of minutes
and Growth rates
101
94
86
79
17%17%
17%
16%
71
15%
15%
15%
15% 64
15%
15%
14%
13% 57
13%
Annual change
12%
12%12%
12%
49
11%
11%
43
38
9% 8%8%
33
28
24
21
18
16
11 13 14
10
9
8
4 5 5 6
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
USA Net settlement payments and
Average settlement rates movement
(in US$)
0.8
0.68 0.675
6
0.7
0.64
0.6
0.575
5
0.515
0.48
4
0.5
0.455
0.405
0.4
0.365
3
0.315
0.3
0.27
2
0.215 0.175
0.16
0.2
1
0.1
0
0
8
19 8
9
19 8
0
19 9
1
19 9
2
19 9
3
19 9
4
19 9
5
19 9
Years
6
19 9
7
19 9
8
19 9
9
19 9
0
20 0
1
20 0
US average settlement
rates
Net Settlement Payments
.
7
Net Settlement
payments
Settlement rates
movement
Falling prices
Average retail price of one m inute call to USA.
$2.00
Source: ITU adapted from FCC and
national data (34 countries).
$1.50
Forecast
Mark-up
$1.00
$0.50
Settlem ent
$0.00
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Traditional regime:
Joint provision of service
Country A
X
Country B
X
Two different national operators jointly establish an
international circuit and decide the revenue they wish to
obtain. They then divide that revenue fifty-fifty split.
Emerging regime:
Market entry and interconnection
Jointly provided circuit
Country A
Country B
X X
X
Circuit provided
by operator B
Cross border interconnection and the trading of international traffic
minutes
Delivering international
voice traffic in 2002
Traditional
Traditional bilateral
bilateral
settlement
settlement rate
rate
system
system
Via
Via aa
wholesale
wholesale
carrier
carrier
30%
15%
20%
Originating
international
voice traffic
Direct
Direct dealing
dealing
with
with the
the
terminating
terminating
country
country
70%
65%
Refile
Refile via
via aa
third
third country
country
Sender
Sender keeps
keeps all
all
exchange
exchange of
of traffic
traffic
Via
Via aa point
point of
of
presence
presence in
in the
the
terminating
terminating country
country