ITU SPU – 28 July 2003 – Richard Horton Forward-looking Programme & Strategy Innovation, Convergence and Regulation 29/07/2003 www.comreg.ie 2 ComReg Structure 3 Commissioners (Chairperson) Senior Legal Advisor Human Resources Market Operations Financial Control & Regulatory Accounts Market Framework Public Affairs Market Development www.comreg.ie 3 Recap 1: Technological & market conservatism A challenge for innovators and regulators: “Nothing is more difficult than to introduce a new order. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new” Nicolai Machiavelli, 1469 -1527 A.D. www.comreg.ie 4 Recap 2 - Innovation – uncertainties - Connection between innovation, competition & regulation - Evolution of Regulation and Markets - Forward-looking Programme - Future trends www.comreg.ie 5 Technological innovation & regulation – where’s the connection? ! Price, choice & quality objectives ! Market development => vibrant industry ! Highlight opportunities presented by technological innovation ! Help overcome misplaced technological conservatism www.comreg.ie 6 Technological innovation & competition Technological innovation – a source of healthy competition ! New entrants compete – innovate to fill market voids ! Established players innovate – to head off or respond to competition from new entrants ! Technological innovation – threat of competition ever present ! (Disruption – implications for investment & standards) www.comreg.ie 7 How significant is innovation in regulatory policy? ! New EU Regulatory Framework ! ComReg Strategy ! DCMNR Statement of Strategy – Section 4 www.comreg.ie 8 Innovation defined ! Means different things to different people ! Various types of innovation: Product innovation Process innovation Technology fusion (part of ‘Convergence’) Incremental Radical (major breakthroughs) ! Range of innovation techniques: In-house R&D; Contracted out R&D; Rely on suppliers; Corporate venturing; M&A; Access publicly-funded R&D; Innovation portfolios www.comreg.ie 9 Anticipating market developments and issues Three Irish examples: ! Wireless LANs and related technologies ! Free space optics ! Low altitude platform stations www.comreg.ie 10 Convergence, innovation and market development ! Like innovation – means different things to different people ! Very broad scope: ! Technology fusion (e.g. optoelectronics) ! Service convergence (e.g. “triple play”) ! Integrated supply chains ! M&A ! (Convergence of prices & costs?) ! (Cross-border convergence?) ! Features prominently in new EU Regulatory Framework www.comreg.ie 11 Some high profile examples ! Optoelectronics ! VoIP ! Next generation networks ! Ad hoc networks Common theme? Digitalisation www.comreg.ie 12 Convergence today? Figure 1: The Major Dimensions of ICT Convergence (Melody, 1999) Pre Convergence Sectors Post Convergence Sectors Applications • Finance Content Content Telecoms • Travel • Manufacturing Computing Applications • Education Computing • Health • etc. Telecoms Dimensions of Convergence: • Technological • Industrial-Supply • Applications-Demand • Policies – Sectoral • Policies – Convergent www.comreg.ie 13 Convergence tomorrow? ! Miniaturisation and multiplexing hits physical limits? ! Growth of nano- and bio-engineering? ! New era of analogue computing and communications? ! Convergence between nano- and bio-engineering and today’s ICT sector, built around ‘new analogue’? i.e. ‘telecoms/computing/content’ => telecoms/computing/content/nano/bio-engineering www.comreg.ie 14 ‘End game’? History of information and communications: ! Paintings and writings – record ideas & events ! Printing press – copy & disseminate literature ! Gramophone – record music, relive concerts ! Films – record & disseminate images and sound ! Telephony – two-way communication ! Sound radio & television – broadcast audio & video ! Tape recorders, VCRs – copy & relive broadcasts ! Camcorders – record & relive personal experiences ! Internet – transmit and receive multimedia, live or recorded ! Mobile phones & PDAs – ‘anytime’ voice & multimedia ! ?? www.comreg.ie 15 An underlying trend? To witness, record, convey and relive experiences whether they be news events of wide interest, our personal experiences, or pleasure and entertainment – with ever increasing realism…however, wherever and whenever it suits us. www.comreg.ie 16 An end-game scenario Technologies enabling real and fictional ‘virtual reality’ content - live or recorded - to be communicated ubiquitously between individuals, small groups and large audiences www.comreg.ie 17 R&D implications ! Sensing & recording technologies ! Data storage & processing ! Display technologies ! ‘All senses’ communication ! Miniaturisation (nano- & biotechnology) ! Communications infrastructure ! Energy consumption & storage ! Heat transfer (superconductivity?) www.comreg.ie 18 Outlook for the ICT Sector ! Struggling – but some ‘green shoots’ ! In line with familiar pattern of technology-based upheavals - maturing “As a technology begins to mature, a sense of realism sets in. Inevitably, for some, cash runs out. Companies begin to fold, only the strong survive, and naïve investors lose money in the huge rationalization. Pessimism begins to pervade the marketplace, and stock prices fall across the board. Eventually, the market stabilizes.” Sir John Templeton, in Foreword to “Engines that Move Markets”, A. Nairn, Wiley, 2002. www.comreg.ie 19 Question for policy makers and regulators Should they intervene to try to avoid ‘price, choice, quality’ discontinuities, or allow the market to evolve to a more sustainable equilibrium from which renewed growth can be built? www.comreg.ie 20 Conventional wisdom? “For God’s sake go down to reception and get rid of a lunatic who’s down there. He says he’s got a machine for seeing by wireless! Watch him – he may have a razor with him” Editor of the Daily Express in response to a visit by John Logie Baird, 1925 www.comreg.ie 21 Conventional wisdom? - 2 “Drill for oil? You mean drill in the ground and try to find oil? You’re crazy” Drillers whom Edwin L Drake tried to enlist to drill for oil, 1859 www.comreg.ie 22 Conventional wisdom? - 3 “Rail travel at high speed is not possible because the passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia” Dr Dionysus Lardner, 1793 – 1859 AD www.comreg.ie 23 Conventional wisdom “In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual” Galileo Galilei, 1564 – 1642 AD www.comreg.ie 24 Thank you ! Dr Richard Horton ! (+353) 1 804 9714 ! richard.horton@comreg.ie ! www.comreg.ie (for Briefing Notes and all other ComReg/ODTR publications)