December 18, 2005
SES Daily Election Update
NDP Regains Some Ground
FIRST RANKED BALLOT (N=1,200 Canadians, 976 decided voters)
45%
38%
40%
35%
34%
30%
30%
28%
25%
20%
20%
15%
14%
15%
13%
10%
4%
5%
4%
0%
N13
D01
D02
D03
D04
D05
D06
D07
BQ
CP
D08
D09
NDP
D10
Liberal
D11
D12
D13
Undeci
D16
D17
ded:
21%
D14
D15
Green
REGIONAL BALLOTS
Canada
Atlantic Canada
Quebec
Ontario
Western Canada
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Liberal
39
38
48
54
28
26
45
44
38
34
Conservative
31
30
32
24
9
10
34
33
43
43
NDP
14
15
16
20
8
8
16
18
14
16
BQ
12
13
-
-
52
53
-
-
-
-
Green
5
4
4
2
4
3
5
4
5
6
Accuracy
+ 3.2%
+ 3.2%
+ 9.9%
+ 10.0%
+ 6.7%
+ 6.6%
+ 5.7%
+ 5.8%
+ 5.3%
+ 5.3%
Undecided
16
19
13
17
24
22
13
18
15
18
Media inquiries should be directed to: Nikita James Nanos at nnanos@sesresearch.com or (613) 234-4666. Visit the SES website to sign up for instant email
updates. For a detailed explanation on the methodology, please refer to page 4 of this release.
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December 18, 2005
SES Daily Election Update
NDP Sees Positive Movement in Three Regions
ATLANTIC CANADA (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±10)
QUEBEC (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±6)
60%
60%
54%
54%
50%
40%
40%
35%
30%
30%
24%
20%
20% 17%
10%
53%
50%
43%
2%
0%
0%
N13 D01 D02 D03 D04 D05 D06 D07 D08 D09 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D16 D17
CP
NDP
Liberal
26%
20%
10%
5%
24%
9%
10%
8%
3%
8%
4%
N13 D01 D02 D03 D04 D05 D06 D07 D08 D09 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D16 D17
Green
BQ
ONTARIO (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±6)
CP
NDP
Liberal
Green
WESTERN CANADA (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±5)
50%
50%
45% 44%
44%
45%
43%
40% 38%
40%
35%
35%
33%
30%
34%
29%
30%
30%
25% 23%
25% 28%
20%
20%
18%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5% 3%
4%
5%
16%
4%
6%
N13 D01 D02 D03 D04 D05 D06 D07 D08 D09 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D16 D17
CP
NDP
Liberal
Green
N1
3
D0
1
D0
2
D0
3
D0
4
D0
5
D0
6
D0
7
D0
8
D0
9
D1
0
D1
1
D1
2
D1
3
D1
4
D1
5
D1
6
D1
7
0%
0%
CP
NDP
Liberal
Green
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December 18, 2005
SES Daily Election Update
Leadership Index: Layton Performance Up on Trust Post Debate
110
100
90
80 76
70
60 58
50
40 37
30
25
20
10
5
0
N30
75
52
41
27
7
D01
D02
D03
D04
D05
D06
D07
Duceppe
D08
Harper
Layton
D09
D10
Martin
D11
D12
D13
D14
D15
D16
D17
Harris
LEADERSHIP INDICATORS
Trust
Competence
Vision for Canada
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
%
%
%
%
%
%
Paul Martin
21
17
31
31
27
Stephen Harper
18
16
18
16
Gilles Duceppe
13
10
12
Jack Layton
13
20
Jim Harris
3
None of them
Leadership Index Score
Dec 16
Dec 17
27
79
75
21
20
57
52
11
6
6
31
27
6
9
11
12
30
41
3
1
1
3
3
7
7
16
17
12
12
10
11
38
40
Undecided
17
18
21
20
22
21
60
59
Accuracy
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
Media inquiries should be directed to: Nikita James Nanos at nnanos@sesresearch.com or (613) 234-4666. Visit the SES website to sign up for instant email
updates. For a detailed explanation on the methodology, please refer to page 4 of this release.
3
December 18, 2005
SES Daily Election Update
Martin as Best PM Slides but Still Ahead
BEST PRIME MINISTER (N=1,200 Canadians)
35%
29%
30%
25%
29%
22%
22%
21%
20%
15%
10%
16%
13%
11%
11%
10%
7%
6%
5% 4%
2%
0%
N13
D01
D02
D03
Duceppe
D04
D05
Harper
D06
Layton
D07
D08
D09
D10
Martin
D11
Harris
D12
D13
Unsure
D14
D15
D16
D17
None
REGIONAL NUMBERS
Canada
Atlantic Canada
Quebec
Ontario
Western Canada
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 17
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Martin
32
29
45
44
23
22
26
23
39
35
Harper
22
21
20
13
10
10
27
27
26
25
Duceppe
6
6
2
2
23
24
1
1
1
1
Layton
9
10
11
13
9
12
12
12
7
7
Harris
2
2
2
1
2
1
3
3
2
1
None
10
11
8
11
14
14
13
13
6
6
Undecided
19
22
12
17
19
17
18
22
22
26
Accuracy
+ 2.9%
+ 2.9%
+ 9.2%
+ 9.2%
+ 5.8%
+ 5.8%
+ 5.3%
+ 5.3%
+ 4.9%
+ 4.9%
Media inquiries should be directed to: Nikita James Nanos at nnanos@sesresearch.com or (613) 234-4666. Visit the SES website to sign up for instant email
updates. For a detailed explanation on the methodology, please refer to page 4 of this release.
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SES Daily Election Update
December 18, 2005
METHODOLOGY
CPAC Questions
1.
2.
If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Are you currently leaning towards any particular FEDERAL party, and if you are, which party would that be?
Currently (rotate), Paul Martin is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton
is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Jim Harris is leader of the federal Green Party.
3. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the most trustworthy leader?
4. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the most competent leader?
5.
6.
Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the leader with the best vision for Canada?
Based on what you know about the federal party leaders and their performance during the election campaign up until today, who do you think
would make the best Prime Minister?
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by SES Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are
interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of
interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2001 Canadian Census
administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing
Research and Intelligence Association of which SES is a member.
Leadership Index Score Methodology
Every day, SES will report on a daily leadership index score. The leadership index score is a summation of the three leadership indicators (trustworthy, competence,
th
vision). For example, on November 30 (N30), Jim Harris received a Leadership Index Score of 5 because 2% of Canadians identified Jim Harris as the most
trustworthy leader, 1% said he was the most competent and 2% said he had the best vision for Canada.
The Leadership Index Score will be tracked daily with updated results from the previous night of polling. Unlike the other measures tracked by SES, the
leadership index score will not be based on a three-day rolling sample. It will be reported from results the evening before. This will allow SES to measure
the performance of the federal party leaders and the key factors driving performance on a daily basis.
About SES
Established in 1987, SES Research is a full service public opinion research and management consulting firm. For more information on our full range of
services please visit our website www.sesresearch.com.
Media inquiries should be directed to:
Nikita James Nanos
President and CEO
SES Research
nnanos@sesresearch.com
(613) 234-4666
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