China: Towards Green and Low-Carbon
Development
Qi Ye
Climate Policy Initiative (CPI)@Tsinghua University
Beijing, China
qi@tsinghua.edu.cn
Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, May 31, 2011
CPI Annual Review of Low-Carbon
Development 2010
‡ China’s Low-Carbon Development Overview
‡ Sector results:
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
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Power
Industry
Building
Transportation
Agriculture/Forestry
‡ Key Takeaways
‡ Next Steps for China
‡ Implications for the U.S.
(www.ClimatePolicyInitaitive.org)
China’s energy and carbon efficiency
‡ The largest carbon emitter in the world
‡ The largest energy consumer in the
world
‡ 3.2 5billion tce of energy consumption
(2010)
‡ ~7 billion tCO2 emission from fossil fuel
combustion (2010)
‡ Energy intensity 5X Japan, 3X U.S.
‡ An inefficient economy?
Benchmarking: Power generation
Source:
International comparison of CO2 emission, per capita CO2
9000
7521
6589
5454
6000
World avr 1326
3394
3271
2940
3000
2019
297
849
245
177
India
Bra zil
0
US
CO2 intensity (kgCO2/(m2.a))
CO2 intensity (kgCO2/(ca.a))
Benchmarking: Building Energy & CO2 Intensity
100
Austra lia Ca nada Russia
Ja pan
Korea
OECD Africa
Europe
China
International comparison of CO2 emission, per unit area CO2
87
80
77
64
69
60
40
28
20
0
US
Canada
Japan
Korea
China
Benchmarking: Fuel Economy Standards
6
A Coal-based Energy System
3,000 China's Primary Energy Consumption
1980‐2006
2,500 Hydro & Nuclear
Natural Gas
Mtce
2,000 Petroleum
Coal
1,500 1,000 500 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 7
Resource endowment
Oil
Natural
Gas
Coal
238 billion tons coal equivalent
97% total fossil fuel reserve base
8
Source: NBS, 2007.
Emissions
中美碳排放比较
Source: Asia Society, 2008. Common Challenge, Collaborative Response: A Roadmap for U.S.‐China Cooperation on Energy and Climate Change. http://www.asiasociety.org/taskforces/climateroadmap/US_China_Roadmap_on_Climate_Change.pdf
9
Per Capita CO2 Emissions
Per Capita Energy Related CO2 Emissions
1950‐2007
Tonnes of CO2/Person
25 20 15 China
US
10 Global Average
5 ‐
1950
10
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
Source: Historical 1950‐2005 US, China and global emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; 2006‐2007 US, China and global emissions data are preliminary estimates from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; 2006‐2007 population data of China from China Statistical Bureau; 2006‐2007 US and global population data from US Census. Effort to Reduce Energy Intensity
4,500
kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2000) RMB
4,000
3,500
3,000
Average Annual Decline of
5% per year
2,500
2,000
Average Annual Increase of
2% per year
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980
11
1985
1990
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Abstract, various years.
1995
2000
2005
On track to target
During the 11th FYP, China was on track to meet
energy intensity target, reversed an upward trend of
energy intensity between 2002 and 2005.
Reversal of the trend
Note: energy intensity values are calculated using deflated year 2000 GDP values; expressed in kilograms coal equivalent primary energy consumption per reminbi GDP.
13
The Power Sector
Power Sector
Energy consumption and CO2
emission increased rapidly,
but energy efficiency and
carbon productivity also
improved.
Key policies:
– Renewable Energy Law
– large plants/new tech
– Plant Closure Program
Decarbonizing the power industry: 2005 - 2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
Power industry total capacity (GW)
517
621
713
791
Thermal power capacity (GW)
391
484
554
601
Hydro power capacity (GW)
117
129
145
172
Wind power capacity (GW)
1.1
1.9
4.0
8.9
Nuclear power capacity (GW)
6.9
6.9
8.9
9.1
Power industry total generation (TWh)
2500
2866
3282
3467
Thermal power generation (TWh)
2047
2370
2723
2790
Hydro power generation (TWh)
397
436
485
585
Wind power generation (TWh)
1
3
6
13
Nuclear power generation (TWh)
Power industry CO2 emission intensity
(gCO2/kWh)
Thermal power industry carbon emission
intensity (gCO2/kWh)
53
55
62
68
766.8
772.4
760.3
716.6
935.8
933.2
914.7
887.8
Renewable Energy and Nuclear Power
¾Installation:
¾Renewable energy: 226GW in 2009;
¾Hydro: 200GW in 2010 (20GW added each year);
¾Wind power was 25.8GW in 2009 (annual growth
of 130% from 2006 to 2009)
¾Generation:
¾Renewables and nuclear power: 18.5% of national
total in 2009.
¾The electricity generated by hydro, wind and
nuclear power increased from 2005’s 451.4TWh to
2009’s 666.7TWh, 47.7% higher than 2005 level,
¾The growth rate surpassed that of thermal power
(36.3%).
Thermal Power: Structure and Efficiency
¾ Closure of small and inefficient power plants: 72 GW,
20% more than total capacity of UK. 26.17GW closed in
2009 alone.
¾ Structural change: 34% of units larger than 600MW in
2009 as compared to 13% in 2005; and proportion of
units smaller than 300MW decreased from 53% to 31%,
respectively.
Wind Power Installation
Source:
The Manufacturing Industry
Manufacturing sector
Energy consumption and
CO2 emission increased
rapidly, but energy
efficiency and carbon
productivity also improved.
Key policies:
– Top 1000 EnergyConsuming Enterprises
Program
– Plant Closure Program
– Ten Key Energy
Conservation Projects
2.5
2
2.10
2.05
1.5
1.93
1.82
1
0.5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
(年)
4RMB)
CO
2 emissions intensity (tce/10
单位工业增加值CO
2 排放（t-CO2 /万元）
Energy intensity (tce/104RMB)
单位工业增加值能耗 （tce/万元）
Energy and Carbon Intensity (Per unit IVA)
6
5
5.08
4
4.96
4.58
4.30
3
2
1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
(年)
¾ 2005~2008, energy intensity decreased 13.3%, an 4.6% average
annual reduction.
¾ 2005~2008, carbon intensity decreased 14.8%, a 5.4% average
annual reduction.
Energy Savings in Manufacturing Sector
MtCO2 Savings
Mtce Savings
Baseline
CO2 emissions Reduction
Baseline
Energy savings
1866
Actual energy consumption
1686 140
248
3814
1618
1546
4509 695
Actual CO2 emissions
4073 398
3674
3505 80
3425
1451 34
1417
2006
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
¾ 2006~2008, the industrial sector achieved cumulative energy
savings of 421Mtce (frozen 2005 energy intensity baseline).
¾ 2006~2008, the industrial sector achieved aggregate CO2 emission
reduction of 1170MtCO2.
Manufacturing Sector Policy and Energy Saved
Policy
Energy savings, 20062009
Contribution to 20%
EI reduction
Top 1000 Energy
Consuming Enterprises
132Mtce (exceeds
target)
27%
Ten Key Energy
Conservation Projects
140 Mtce (2006-2008)
29%
Small Plant Closures
110 Mtce
22%
The Building Sector
Building
Energy consumption
and CO2 emissions up
rapidly; but efficiency
improvement is modest.
Key policies:
–District heating
–Building codes
Growth of CO2 emission slowing down
¾ In 2008, China’s building sector
• Energy consumption: 540 Mtce, 18.4% of China’s total
• CO2 emission 1260 MtCO2, 19.8% of China’s total
¾ 2006~2008 Growth rate
• Energy consumption: 8.6%
• CO2 emission: 7.8%
600
Energy consumption
500
519
468
CO2 emission (MtCO2)
Energy (Mtce)
422
336
237 247
220 225 234
273
295
200
902
1000
750
12281260
1116
1007
CO2 emission
1250
381
400
300
1500
540
808
592
534 541 559 566
653
707
500
250
100
0
1996
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008 (yr)
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008 (yr)
75% of the energy saving targets by 11th FYP
fulfilled in first three years
Unit: Mtce
581
Baseline
Energy savings
Actual energy consumption
544
40.1
25.3
540
519
480
11.7
468
2006
2007
2008
Energy saving by policy clusters
¾ The implementation of
building codes
¾ Heat reform in north
urban China
¾ Renewable energy Renewable
energy
application
20%
¾ Energy management
contract
¾ More efficient appliance
Heat reform
30%
EMC
8%
Appliances
2%
Building
codes
40%
The Transportation Sector
Transportation
Transport also
challenging
Energy consumption
and CO2 emissions up
rapidly; but efficiency
modest.
Key policies:
–Fuel economy
standards
–Public transportation
prioritization
Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
Change of Transportation Mode
(a) Passenger mode share change, passenger-kilometers travelled
(b) Freight mode share change, ton-kilometers travelled
(Sources: China Transportation Yearbook)
The Agriculture and Forestry Sector
Good news in ag
and forestry
Agriculture: direct energy
emissions declined, nonCO2 emissions stable.
Afforestation added
420MtCO2 per year to
carbon sinks.
Carbon storage in forestry
25
20
15
GtCO2
Key policies:
•Logging ban
•Afforestation
10
5
王效科等
(2001)
李克让等
(2009)
赵敏，周广胜
(2004)
Fang et al.( 2001)
0
第一次
第二次
第三次
第四次
第五次
第六次
第七次
GHG Emissions/Absorptions of the Agriculture and Forestry Sector
Direct CO2
Emissions
CO2 Absorptions
Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Indirect Embedded CO2 Emissions
Key Takeaway: Energy efficiency has reduced
carbon emission
‡ China’s carbon emissions intensity fell
largely as a result of energy intensity
decrease, effect of energy mix was
insignificant.
‡ Policies that target emissions (not just
energy) would accelerate reduction of
carbon intensity.
Key Takeaway: Effective but not efficient
policies
‡ The most effective policies were topdown administrative measures such as
the target responsibility system.
‡ More cost-effective policies are
needed to achieve future targets.
Key Takeaway: Low-hanging fruit picked
Much of the low-hanging fruit for reducing energy intensity
has been picked (e.g., small plant closures). Economic
structure has improved. Further reductions in energy
intensity during the 12th FYP period will be more
challenging.
Source: Xu Huaqing, 2007; State electricity
12th FYP: Towards A Low Carbon, Green Economy
•
•
•
•
A national consensus
Restructuring of economy
Emission reduction, not just energy efficiency
Consumption side management
• Market-based instruments:
• ETS pilot
• Energy Performance Contracting
• Carbon tax
• Coal (energy) consumption cap and trade
Challenges for the 12th FYP
‡ GDP growth
‡ Structure: Export and Urbanization
‡ Technology: International and
Domestic R&D and deployment
‡ Financing low carbon development
‡ Market instruments
Implications for US (and US-China Cooperation)
‡ Size of emissions and rate of growth are
issues that must be addressed
‡ Strong political will and leadership are key to
progress
‡ Restructuring of economy towards higher
value, lower emissions industries could affect
US-China economic interactions
‡ Emissions from consumption sectors in U.S.
and China are of growing concern
‡ Opportunity for best-practice sharing in
energy, building energy efficiency and other
sectors.
Thank you very much for your attention!