Committed to Connecting the World
Voice over Internet Protocol:
Enemy or Ally?
GSR 2009
Beirut, Lebanon
11-12 November 2009
Phillippa Biggs
Economist
CSD/SPM, ITU
This presentation solely reflects the views of the author and does not
represent the views of ITU or its Member States in any way.
International
Telecommunication
Union
Committed to Connecting the World
Agenda
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VoIP is growing strongly
In traffic…
…And Subscribers…
…And National Regulation.
Regulatory Issues – in Summary!
Defining VoIP
(Tentative) Conclusions
Measures to grow (VoIP) market
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VoIP is growing strongly Quarter of all int’l traffic in 2008
International and Time Division Multiplexing (TDM) Traffic, 1997-2008
Source: Telegeography 2008.
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….And in Subscribers….
300
VoIP Subscribers
VoIP subscribers (m)
VoIP % total mainline subscribers
18
16
250
Regional distribution of VoIP
Subscribers, Q1 2009
Millions
14
12
200
10
150
W.Europe
38%
E.Europe
1%
8
6
100
Latin
America
3%
4
50
2
0
0
AsiaPacific
26%
SE Asia
5%
N.America
27%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources: iDATE (left), Point Topic (right graph).
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…And National Regulation
Worldwide regulation of VoIP, 2004-2009
Banned
Closed
No framework
Allowed
100%
46
2004 Half all
countries
allowed
VoIP
59
80%
60%
57
20%
51
8
40%
80
69
79
46
10
88
42
12
92
39
12
39
11
11
71
64
58
53
49
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009 –
Twothirds
permit
VoIP
0%
2004
Source: ITU.
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Americas (North & South)
Americas, 2004-2009
Banned
Closed
No framework
Allowed
100%
5
5
8
80%
60%
21
21
18
10
10
11
17
17
17
2
6
2
5
2008
2009
40%
20%
1
1
2
8
8
7
2
6
2004
2005
2006
2007
0%
April 2008
Source: ITU.
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Europe & CIS
Europe & CIS, 2004-2009
Banned
Closed
No framework
Allowed
100%
80%
27
29
60%
34
37
12
10
40
40
8
1
1
2009
40%
17
15
20%
0%
April 2008
1
5
2
4
2004
2005
3
1
2
1
8
1
1
2006
2007
2008
Source: ITU.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2004-2009
Banned
100%
80%
2
5
0
Closed
No framework
7
8
8
5
1
4
1
4
1
29
29
29
2005
2006
2007
60%
40%
35
Allowed
11
4
1
13
4
1
26
24
2008
2009
20%
2009 –13
countries
explicitly
permit retail
VoIP – but
nearly 20
countries
using IPbased
transmission
for
international
traffic
0%
2004
April 2008
Source: ITU.
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Arab States
Arab States, 2004-2009
Banned
100%
80%
2
3
2
Closed
3
2
3
60%
40%
15
14
No framework
3
3
3
13
20%
5
2
4
Allowed
6
6
3
4
3
3
11
10
9
2007
2008
2009
0%
2004
April 2008
2005
2006
Source: ITU.
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Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific, 2004-2009
Banned
Closed
No framework
Allowed
100%
9
80%
14
15
7
7
17
17
18
8
8
8
3
4
4
11
10
9
2007
2008
2009
11
60%
3
40%
16
20%
3
15
3
14
0%
2004
April 2008
2005
2006
Source: ITU.
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Regional Picture in 2009
Worldwide Regulation of VoIP, 2009
Banned
Closed
No framework
Allowed
100%
80%
13
60%
4
1
6
18
40%
24
40
8
9
0%
April 2008
16
39
11
4
9
SSA
92
4
3
20%
11
Arab
AsiaPacific
2
6
8
1
1
Americas Europe &
CIS
2009 –
Twothirds
permit
VoIP
49
World
Source: ITU.
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Regulatory Issues
ƒ Defining VoIP – often a challenge
ƒ ‘Pure’ QoS: wireless VoIP & VoWiMAX
ƒ Network Management & “Net
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Neutrality” – QoS & blocking
Universal Service – 43% VoIP states
Numbering & number portability
Access to Emergency Services – 47%
Security is a growing issue.
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Defining VoIP
Definition
Selected countries
Functionality
Japan, Hong Kong (China)
Numbering
Japan, Taiwan (China)
Vo-Broadband Austria, France, Netherlands
Degree over
PSTN
Bahrain, Barbados, Brazil, Chile,
Israel, Jordan, Kenya, Norway UK
Service
Barbados, Bolivia, Czech Rep.
Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, US
Nomadic
Iceland, Italy, Portugal, Spain
Users
Chile, Ghana, Tunisia
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Outlook & Conclusions (1)
Developing countries and SIDS still
struggling with convergence & VoIP
regulation –difficult & raises big issues;
So is Europe! Diversity in regulatory
approach, despite efforts by EU & ERG.
Market structure and incumbent’s
revenue structure have a big impact on
willingness to embrace (retail) VoIP
- as do political realities.
Wholesale VoIP widely adopted.
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Outlook & Conclusions (2)
ƒ The overall market direction is clear.
ƒ Smaller slice of growing comm. market?
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Bahraini players thought so!
Opening up VoIP could help industry,
market liberalization & new services.
Regulators (largely) know this –
question of time & making the transition
Better to move fwd & work with
industry to embrace future
Cheaper voice service = digital inclusion
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Measures to Grow (VoIP) market
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National BB policy and backbone
Promote competition & market entry
Technological neutrality
Liberalize international gateways
Promote unbundling & infrast-sharing
Number portability incl. VoIP providers
Simplify licensing procedures & rules
Regular monitoring and consultation
with the industry
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Thank you for your attention
Phillippa.biggs@itu.int
www.twitter.com/phillippabiggs
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