American National Security
In the Coming Decade
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Determinants & Influences
z
z
z
National Interests?
Threats
Domestic Politics
z
z
z
z
z
Personalities/
Bureaucratic Interests
Organizational
Interests
Partisan Politics
Interest groups
Public Opinion
z
z
z
z
History
Technology
Economy
International Politics
z
z
Friends & Allies
International Law
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Prominent Threats
z Challenges
to US Survival?
z Challenges to US Domestic Security?
z Challenges to US Prosperity?
z Economic
prosperity
z Social prosperity
z Political prosperity
z Challenges
to US Hegemony?
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Weapons of Mass
Destruction
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WMD
z Nuclear
& radiological
z Chemical
z Biological
z Delivery
Systems
z Missiles
z Ballistic
z cruise
z long-range
aircraft
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Nuclear Proliferation
z
1945-1955
z
z
1956-1965
z
z
z
z
India, (Israel)
Rumania, Norway, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Brazil, Spain,
Egypt, Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea
1976-1985
z
z
z
France, China
Canada, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Italy,
Czechoslovakia, Poland, Australia, Hungary
1966-1975
z
z
US, USSR, UK
(South Africa)
Bulgaria, Greece, Austria
1986-2005
z
z
Pakistan
Iraq, Iran, N. Korea
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Nuclear Proliferation as a Threat
z
Nuclear Weapons for Regional Powers
z
z
Limits US intervention options
Nuclear Weapons in conflict dyads
z
Likelihood of nuclear use
z
z
z
z
z
Likelihood of use against US “friends” & US territory
Political & economic instability affects markets
Nuclear Weapons in weak states
z
z
Vulnerability
C3
“Loose Nukes”
“Virtual” Nuclear Arsenals
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Coping with Nuclear Proliferation
z Baruch
Plan (1946)
z Atoms for Peace (1955)
z Non-Proliferation Treaty (1968)
z Bi-lateral actions
z S.
Korea & Taiwan (1970s & 1980s)
z Pakistan (1980s)
z N. Korea (1993-1994)
z Former Soviet Union (1992-present)
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Chemical & Biological Weapons
z Biological
Weapons Treaty (1972)
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U.S. Options
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Nuclear Weapons
z
How can nuclear weapons enhance U.S. national
security in the years ahead?
z
z
Are there drawbacks?
Historical Perspective
z
z
What roles have nuclear weapons played in American
National Security Policy?
Who were the advocates for nuclear weapons?
What did they advocate?
z Were there opponents?
z
z
What were their arguments?
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Extended Deterrence
z How
do we convince potential adversaries
that they cannot attain their goals by
threatening US interests?
z Capability
z Credibility
z Communication
z Punishment
vs. Denial
z Conventional Arms vs. Nuclear Arms
z Threat vs. Use
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Other Measures
z New
Technologies
z Missile
Defense (?)
z Special
Forces
z Financial Warfare
z Intelligence Collection & Analysis
z Foreign
z domestic
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