Are Environmental Problems
Getting Worse or Better?
17.32 Limited Earth?
1
Environmental Policy
Pattern of Government decisions and
actions intended to address environmental
problems
– Defining environmental problems
– Devising programs and activities to manage
them
17.32 Limited Earth?
2
Environmental Policy Making
How the government determines what
are/not environmental problems and which
deserve government attention
– Institutions
How public concerns are translated in to
government concerns
– Procedures
17.32 Limited Earth?
3
Environmental Politics
Clash of interests, ideas, & values that
occurs -- inside and outside of
government -- in the course of defining
environmental problems and deciding
what government should (not) do about
them
– Include public participation
Voting
Letter writing
Lobbying
17.32 Limited Earth?
4
Environmental Politics
What are the real problems we face as a society
and how do we characterize and prioritize them?
– Environmental problems vs. other problems
Should our government do anything about the
environmental problem(s) we identify?
If so, what are our choices for government
action? What can government do and what
should government do?
Once we know what we want government to do,
how do we make it happen?
17.32 Limited Earth?
5
Scientific & Engineering Data in
Environmental Policy
Where does science and technology come
into play?
– Defining the some of the characteristics of
environmental problems
– Defining some aspects of the solutions for
solving the problems
17.32 Limited Earth?
6
Scientific & Engineering Data in
Environmental Policy
“Emerging” science & technology
– Tentative
– Uncertain
– Speculative
Looking for the truth vs. Looking for
evidence
– Many ways to present data
17.32 Limited Earth?
7
Are Environmental Problems
Getting Worse or Better?
What do the Data show?
17.32 Limited Earth?
8
Things Are Getting Worse
17.32 Limited Earth?
9
World Population
10,000
9,000
Population (millions)
8,000
7,000
6,000
Population
5,000
Projection
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
17.32 Limited Earth?
10
World Population Growth
2.50
Percent Growth
2.00
1.50
Growth
Projection
1.00
0.50
0.00
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
17.32 Limited Earth?
11
GDP per capita (2000)
$35,000
US
Japan
Germany
UK
Sweden
Mexico
China
India
Nigeria
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
GDP/pop
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12
17.32 Limited Earth?
ex
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UK
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an
y
Sw
G
Ja
pa
n
US
A
CO2 (tonnes per capita)
2
CO
Emissions
per Capita (1996)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
13
Energy Consumption
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ld
or
W
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ia
Ni
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Ch
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UK
Sw
G
Ja
pa
n
er
m
an
y
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
US
Millions BTUs per Capita
per capita (1997)
14
Municipal Trash
kg per capita
kg per capita
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
US
y
n
n
a
a
p
m
Ja
er
G
UK
Sw
n
e
ed
M
ic
x
e
o
17.32 Limited Earth?
na
i
Ch
ia
ld
ia
r
r
d
o
ge
In
i
W
N
15
Ecological Footprint
30
Eco. Footprint
Eco. Productive Land
25
20
15
10
5
W
or
ld
N
ig
er
a
In
di
a
C
hi
na
o
ex
ic
M
U
K
er
m
an
y
G
Ja
pa
n
0
U
S
Acres per Capita
35
Ecological Footprint
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16
Things Are Getting Better
17.32 Limited Earth?
17
17.32 Limited Earth?
ex
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co
W
ld
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Ni
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In
di
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Ch
in
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M
ed
en
UK
er
m
an
y
Sw
G
Ja
pa
n
US
% Annual Growth
Population Growth
1990-2000
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
18
2
CO
Emissions per GDP
(1996)
30
20
15
10
5
17.32 Limited Earth?
er
ia
Ni
g
In
di
a
Ch
in
a
co
ex
i
M
UK
ed
en
Sw
G
Ja
pa
n
er
m
an
y
0
US
A
CO2/GDP
25
19
BTUs Consumed per GDP
(1996)
1200
800
600
400
200
17.32 Limited Earth?
er
ia
Ni
g
In
di
a
Ch
in
a
co
ex
i
M
ed
en
UK
Sw
G
Ja
pa
n
er
m
an
y
0
US
A
BTUs/GDP
1000
20
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
BTUs / GDP
US Energy Use & GDP
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
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21
US SO2 Pollution & GDP
70
60
SO2 / GDP
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
1970
17.32 Limited Earth?
1980
1990
2000
22
U.S. NOx Emissions vs GDP/Pop
1980
25000
1975
1994
1995 1997
19881993 1996
1998
1992
1989
1990
1991
1985
19841986
1987
1970
NO-x Emissions
20000
1965
15000
1960
1955
1950
1945
10000
1930
1940
1935
5000
5000
10000
20000
GDP per Capita
30000
US CO2 Emissions
1,500
1,450
CO2
Emissions
1,400
1,350
1,300
1,250
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
17.32 Limited Earth?
24
US CO2 Emissions / GDP
CO2 Emissions/GDP
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
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25
END
17.32 Limited Earth?
26
Simon & Kahn
Life expectancy is rising globally
Birth rates are falling
Global food supply is increasing
No statistical evidence of species loss
Fish catch is increasing
Agriculture not constrained by land
availability
17.32 Limited Earth?
27
Simon & Kahn
US farmland is not being lost to
urbanization
Water is not growing scarce
No sign of serious climate change
Mineral resources are become less scarce
Nuclear power is safe and competitive
Air and Water pollution threats are
exaggerated
17.32 Limited Earth?
28
U.S. Population
Urban & Rural
Population (millions)
250
200
150
Rural
Urban
100
50
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1990
Year
17.32 Limited Earth?
29
US Vehicles Miles
per capita
Vehicle Miles per Capita
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
17.32 Limited Earth?
30
Federal Environmental Laws Passed
Number Passed
(including amendments)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
5 0 9 5 5 9 60 96 5 97 0 97 5 9 8 0 9 85 99 0 99 5 00 0
9
-1 1 -1 6 -1 1 -1 6 -1 1 -1 6 -1 1 -1 6 -1 1 -1 6 -2
5
5
4
5
6
6
7
8
7
8
9
9
19
1 9 1 9 19 19
19 1 9 1 9 19 19
19
17.32 Limited Earth?
31