11.S945'Urbanizing'China
'
'
Is#China#an#Outlier?#'
'
China’s#Urbanization#in#Historical#and#
International#Contexts
Liyan Xu, Jinhua Zhao
9/9/2013
1
Facts'of'World'Urbanization
This image is in the public domain.
Urbanization'rate:'percentage'of'population'living'in'urban#areas#(as#defined#by#the#country).'@
Source:'hAp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png
2
Urbanization'History'by'Countries
World*Urbanization*by*Countries,*1800;2010
100@
90@
Brazil@
80@
UK@
Colombia@
70@
Urbanization*Rate/*%
Prussia/Germany@
South'Africa@
60@
US@
France@
50@
China@
40@
India@
30@
20@
Japan@
Russia/USSR@
Kenya@
S.Korea@
10@
0@
1800@ 1810@ 1820@ 1830@ 1840@ 1850@ 1860@ 1870@ 1880@ 1890@ 1900@ 1910@ 1920@ 1930@ 1940@ 1950@ 1960@ 1970@ 1980@ 1990@ 2000@ 2010@
Year
UK@
France@
Germany@
US@
Russia/USSR@
Japan@
Brazil@
Colombia@
China@
India@
South'Africa@
Kenya@
Source:'various;'available'upon'request.
S.Korea@
3
The'Urbanization'Curve
Courtesy of Elsevier, Inc., http://www.sciencedirect.com. Used with permission.
Source:'Mulligan,'G.'F.'(2013).'Revisiting'the'urbanization'curve.'Cities,'32(0),'113–122.'doi:hAp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.
2013.03.014@
4
Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
China’s*Urbanization*1949;2050
First'5cyear' The'“Great'
Plan
Leap'
Forward”
The'
Culture'
Revolution
Reform'
and'Openc
up
China'
Entering'
WTO
UN'
Forecasting
100@
160000@
90@
140000@
80@
70@
100000@
60@
50@
80000@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Population/10*Thousands
120000@
40@
60000@
30@
40000@
20@
20000@
2048@
2045@
2042@
2039@
2036@
2033@
2030@
2027@
2024@
2021@
2018@
2015@
2012@
2009@
2006@
2003@
2000@
1997@
1994@
1991@
1988@
1985@
1982@
1979@
1976@
1973@
1970@
1967@
1964@
1961@
1958@
1955@
1952@
1949@
0@
10@
0@
Year
Urban'Population@
Rural'Population@
Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008,'and'the'UN#World#Population#Perspective#2012.
5
Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
China’s*Urbanization*and*Economic*Development*1952;2012
7000@
60@
6000@
50@
Per*capita*GDP/2010*USD
Urbanization*Rate/%
5000@
40@
4000@
30@
3000@
20@
2000@
10@
1000@
0@
0@
Year
Per'capita'GDP@
Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008.
6
Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
China’s*Urbanization*and*Housing*Improvement,*1952;2012
60@
50.0'@
45.0'@
40.0'@
35.0'@
Per*capita*housing*area/m2
Urbanization*Rate
50@
40@
30.0'@
30@
25.0'@
20.0'@
20@
15.0'@
10.0'@
10@
2012@
2010@
2008@
2006@
2004@
2002@
2000@
1998@
1996@
1994@
1992@
1990@
1988@
1986@
1984@
1982@
1980@
1978@
1976@
1974@
1972@
1970@
1968@
1966@
1964@
1962@
1960@
1958@
1956@
1954@
0@
1952@
5.0'@
0.0'@
Year
Urban'per'capita'housing'area@
Rural'per'capita'housing'area@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Statistics#Yearbook'2012,'2006,'1990.
Urbanization'Rate@
7
Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
60@
3@
50@
2.5@
40@
2@
30@
1.5@
20@
1@
10@
0.5@
Total*Energy*Consumption
tons*of*Standard*Coal
Urbanization*Rate
%
ChinaPs*Urbanization*and*Per*capita*Energy*Consumption,*1952;2012
0@
0@
1952@
1954@
1956@
1958@
1960@
1962@
1964@
1966@
1968@
1970@
1972@
1974@
1976@
1978@
1980@
1982@
1984@
1986@
1988@
1990@
1992@
1994@
1996@
1998@
2000@
2002@
2004@
2006@
2008@
2010@
2012@
Year
Per'capita'Energy'Consumption@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Statistics#Yearbook'2012,'1996.
Urbanization'Rate@
8
Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
Population*Growth*of*Chinese*Cities*of*Different*Sizes,*2000;2010T
100@
Larger'cities'grew'faster
90@
80@
Growth*Rate/%
70@
60@
50@
40@
30@
20@
10@
0@
0@
200@
400@
600@
800@
1000@
1200@
1400@
1600@
1800@
2000@
Rank
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'5th'and'6th'National'Census'data.
9
China’s'Urbanization:'
'What’s'So'Special?
>  Speed
>  Economic Outcomes
>  Resource/Environment Costs
10
Speed'of'Urbanization
>  Rapid urbanization: far from “unprecedented”
o  Historical counterpart: Lowell, MA
o  Contemporary counterpart: Dubai
o  Country-level counterparts:
>  USSR, Japan, South Korea
>  Latin America
11
Urbanization'History'by'Countries
World*Urbanization*by*Countries,*1800;2010
100@
90@
Brazil@
80@
UK@
Colombia@
70@
Urbanization*Rate/*%
Prussia/Germany@
South'Africa@
60@
US@
France@
50@
China@
40@
India@
30@
20@
Japan@
Russia/USSR@
Kenya@
S.Korea@
10@
0@
1800@ 1810@ 1820@ 1830@ 1840@ 1850@ 1860@ 1870@ 1880@ 1890@ 1900@ 1910@ 1920@ 1930@ 1940@ 1950@ 1960@ 1970@ 1980@ 1990@ 2000@ 2010@
Year
UK@
France@
Germany@
US@
Russia/USSR@
Japan@
Brazil@
Colombia@
China@
India@
South'Africa@
Kenya@
Source:'various;'available'upon'request.
S.Korea@
12
Shanghai@
@
1990c2010
© sources unknown. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative
Commons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
13
Lowell,'MA@
@
1821c1845
These maps are in the public domain.
14
Dubai@
@
c.1990c2010
Top image © source unknown. Bottom image © Hatim Saleh, ChopperShoot.com. All rights reserved. This content
is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
15
Urbanization'and'Economic'Development@
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World,*2010T
5@
Lg(PPP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
Qatar@
Equatorial'Guinea@
4.5@
Greece@
United'States'of'America@
Australia@
China,'Taiwan@
Germany@
United'Kingdom@
France@ Japan@
Italy@
Republic'of'Korea@
Russian'Federation@
4@
Thailand@
Egypt@
Sri'Lanka@
India@
Viet'Nam@
3.5@
Malaysia@
Gabon@
Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@
Libya@
Brazil@
South'Africa@
Cuba@
China
Ukraine@
Syrian'Arab'Republic@
Mongolia@
Philippines@
Iraq@
Kenya@
Argentina@
Jordan@
Dem.'Peopleks'Republic'of'
Korea@
Ghana@
3@
Somalia@
2.5@
10@
20@
30@
Democratic'Republic'of'the'
Congo@
40@
50@
R²'='0.65291@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@
Annotations@
Linear'Lg'(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
16
Healthy'Urbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*OECD*Members,*2010T
Lg(PPP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
5@
Norway@
Swirerland@United'States'of'America@
Netherlands@
Ireland@Austria@ Germany@Canada@
Denmark@
Sweden@
Australia@Belgium@
Finland@
United'Kingdom@
France@ Japan@
Italy@
Spain@
New'Zealand@
Republic'of'Korea@
Greece@
Israel@
Slovenia@
Portugal@
Czech'Republic@
Slovakia@
Hungary@
Estonia@
Poland@
Chile@
Turkey@ Mexico@
4.5@
4@
3.5@
3@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@
OECD'Countries@
Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
17
Healthy'Urbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*OECD*Countries,*1960*;*2010T
5@
Norway@
Swirerland@
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
4.5@
4@
3.5@
Turkey)
Portugal)
3@
Denmark@
Australia@
Sweden@
United'States'of'America@
Netherlands@
Canada@
Ireland@Austria@
Finland@
Japan@ Belgium@
Germany@
France@
United'Kingdom@
Italy@
New'Zealand@
Spain@
Israel@
Greece@
Slovenia@
Portugal@
Republic'of'Korea@
Czech'Republic@
Slovakia@
United@States@of@America)
Estonia@
Hungary@
Chile@
Sweden)
New@Zealand)
Canada)
Poland@
Turkey@ Mexico@
SwiHerland)
Australia)
Norway)
United@Kingdom)
Israel)
France)
Denmark)
Belgium)
Finland)Netherlands)
Italy)
Austria)
Ireland)
Japan) Chile)
Greece)
Spain)
Mexico)
Republic@of@Korea)
2.5@
R²'='0.66121@
2@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@
OECD'Countries'2010@
OECD'Countries'1960@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.
18
Healthy'Urbanization
Photographs of suburb and suburban neighborhood
removed due to copyright restrictions.
Photograph courtesy of global_jet on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
ManhaAan;'Suburb'(Harry'PoAer’s'aunt’s'house'in'suburban'London)
19
Overcurbanization/Pseudo'Urbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Continental*Latin*America,*2010T
Lg(PPP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
5@
4.5@
Costa'Rica@
4@
Mexico@
Panama@
Argentina@
Chile@
Uruguay@
Venezuela'(Bolivarian'
Brazil@ Republic'of)@
Peru@
Colombia@
Ecuador@
El'Salvador@
Paraguay@
Bolivia'(Plurinational'State'of)@
Guatemala@
Honduras@
Nicaragua@
3.5@
3@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@
Continental'Latin'America@
Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
20
Overcurbanization/Pseudo'Urbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*Continental*Latin*America,*1960*;*2010T
5@
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
4.5@
Venezuela'(Bolivarian'
Chile@
Uruguay@
Brazil@ Republic'of)@
Mexico@
Argentina@
Costa'Rica@
Panama@
Venezuela@(Bolivarian@
Argentina)
Colombia@
Republic@of))
Peru@
Ecuador@
El'Salvador@
Uruguay)
Paraguay@Chile)
4@
3.5@
Guatemala@
Costa@Rica)
3@
Honduras)
Honduras@
Panama)
Mexico)
Guatemala)
Colombia)
Peru)
Nicaragua@
Ecuador)
El@Salvador) Brazil)
Bolivia@(Plurinational@State@
Bolivia'(Plurinational'State'of)@
of))
Nicaragua)
2.5@
R²'='0.66121@
2@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.
21
Urbanization*Rate/%
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@
Continental'Latin'America'2010@
Continental'Latin'America'1960@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Overcurbanization/Pseudo'urbanization
Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
Rio:'skyscrapers'and'favelas'(screenshot'from'Fast#and#Furious#5#and'Rio,#the#2011#carton#movie#featuring#two#blue#macaws)
22
Undercurbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Post;Soviet/Socialist*Countries,*2010T
Lg(PPP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
5@
4.5@
Slovenia@
Czech'Republic@
Slovakia@
Hungary@
Russian'Federation@
Estonia@
Poland@
Croatia@
Lithuania@
Latvia@
Romania@
Belarus@
Montenegro@Bulgaria@
Kazakhstan@
Serbia@
TFYR'Macedonia@
Azerbaijan@
Bosnia'and'Herzegovina@
Albania@
Turkmenistan@
Ukraine@
Armenia@
Georgia@
4@
Mongolia@
3.5@
Uzbekistan@
Republic'of'Moldova@
Tajikistan@ Kyrgyzstan@
3@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@
PostcSoviet/Socialist'Countries@
Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
23
Undercurbanization
Photograph of Soviet baku removed due to copyright restrictions.
Soviet'Baku
24
Overcurbanization'and'Economic'Stagnation
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Sub;Saharan*Africa,*2010T
Lg(PPP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
5@
Equatorial'Guinea@
4.5@
Gabon@
Botswana@
South'Africa@
4@
Swaziland@
Namibia@
Angola@
Congo@
3.5@
Mauritania@
Nigeria@
Cameroon@
Senegal@ Côte'dkIvoire@
Gambia@
Kenya@
Lesotho@
Benin@ Ghana@
Zambia@
Chad@United'Republic'of'Tanzania@
Uganda@
Rwanda@Burkina'Faso@
Guinea@
Mali@
Sierra'Leone@
Ethiopia@
Togo@
Madagascar@
Mozambique@
Malawi@
Central'African'Republic@
Niger@
Somalia@
Burundi@
Zimbabwe@ Liberia@
3@
2.5@
0@
10@
20@
30@
Democratic'Republic'of'the'
Congo@
40@
50@
60@
R²'='0.65291@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@
SubcSaharan'Africa@
Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
25
Overcurbanization'and'Economic'Stagnation
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*Sub;Saharan*Africa,*1960*;*2010T
5@
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
4.5@
Equatorial'Guinea@
4@
Gabon@
Botswana@
South'Africa@
Swaziland@
3.5@
Angola@
Congo@
South@Africa)
Gabon) Democratic@Republic@of@the@
Senegal)
Zimbabwe)
Nigeria@
Ghana@
Zambia)
Zambia@
Côte'dkIvoire@
Cameroon@
Congo)
Mauritania@
Senegal@
Lesotho@
Côte@dSIvoire)
Liberia)Ghana)
Kenya@
Congo)
Niger) Madagascar)
Chad@
Benin@
Chad)
Mauritania)
Kenya) Cameroon)
Swaziland)
Mali@Zimbabwe@
Burkina'Faso@
Gambia@
Togo@
Rwanda@ United'Republic'of'Tanzania@
Benin)
Nigeria)
Togo) Uganda@
Guinea@
Central'African'Republic@
Sierra'Leone@
Madagascar@
Burundi)
Burkina@Faso) Malawi@
Central@African@Republic)
Uganda)
Somalia)
Mozambique@
Niger@
Liberia@
Ethiopia@
Botswana)
Rwanda)
Malawi) Burundi@
Lesotho)
Democratic'Republic'of'the'
Congo@
3@
2.5@
2@
Namibia@
R²'='0.66121@
Somalia@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@
SubcSaharan'Africa'2010@
SubcSaharan'Africa'1960@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.
26
Overcurbanization'at'a'Low'Development'Level
Map data ©2009 Google, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye. All rights reserved. This
content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more
information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
Kibera,'Nairobi‘s'largest'slum
Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
27
Countries'with'Dutch'Diseases
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*OPEC*and*Other*
Major*Oil*Exporters,*2010T
5@
Qatar@
Lg(PPP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
Kuwait@
United'Arab'Emirates@
Equatorial'Guinea@
4.5@
Oman@
Saudi'Arabia@
Gabon@
Venezuela'(Bolivarian'
Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@
Libya@
Republic'of)@
Algeria@
Ecuador@
4@
Angola@
Iraq@
3.5@
Nigeria@
3@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@
OPEC'and'Other'Major'Oil'Exporters@
Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
28
Countries'with'Dutch'Diseases
World map displaying cost of living removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source:'hAp://www.numbeo.com/costcofcliving/@
29
Countries'with'Dutch'Diseases
Article text removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: Jones, Barbara. "Hamburgers cost £32 and a one-bed flats go for £7,500 a
month... this boy lives in the most expensive city in the world (sadly for him, he's on
the wrong side of the tracks)." DailyMail, Aug. 04, 2012.
Source:'hAp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articlec2183616/LuandacTheccapitalcAngolacexpensiveccitycworld.html@
30
Country'Trajectories
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*2010*with*Urbanization*Trajectories*of*Various*CountriesT
5@
Qatar
Italy
4.5@
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
Australia
United States ofJapan
America
2010@
Germany2000@
France
1990@ United Kingdom
Greece
Equatorial Guinea
1950@
4@
3.5@
1840@
1830@
1820@
1810@
1800@
1860@
Sri Lanka
1850@
1880@
1870@
1890@ 1900@
1910@
Republic of Korea
Russian FederationBrazil
Gabon
Malaysia
South Africa Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Cuba
Libya
Jordan
Argentina
Syrian Arab Republic Ukraine
Iraq
Mongolia
Philippines
India
Viet Nam
3@
1920@
1940@
1930@
Thailand
Egypt
1980@
1970@
1960@
China, Taiwan
Ghana
Kenya
Dem. People's Republic of Korea
2.5@
Democratic Republic of the Congo
R²'='0.66121@
2@
Somalia
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Annotations@
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)@
UK'1830c2010@
USA'1800c2010@
Japan'1920c2010@
South'Korea'1960c2010@
China,'Taiwan'1952c2012@
Brazil'1960c2010@
India'1950c2010@
Ghana'1960c2010@
Dem.Rep.Congo'1960c2010@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
31
Deriving'a'Model…
>  Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is
unhappy in its own way.
Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina, Chapter 1
32
China:'the'Middle'Kingdom
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*2010*with*Urbanization*Trajectories*of*Various*CountriesT
5@
Qatar
Italy
4.5@
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
Australia
United States ofJapan
America
2010@
Germany2000@
France
1990@ United Kingdom
Greece
Equatorial Guinea
1950@
4@
3.5@
1840@
1830@
1820@
1810@
1800@
1860@
Sri Lanka
1850@
1880@
1870@
1890@ 1900@
1910@
Thailand
Egypt
1920@
1940@
1930@
China
Republic of Korea
Russian FederationBrazil
Gabon
Malaysia
South Africa Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Cuba
Libya
Jordan
Argentina
Syrian Arab Republic Ukraine
Iraq
Mongolia
Philippines
India
Viet Nam
3@
1980@
1970@
1960@
China, Taiwan
Ghana
Kenya
Dem. People's Republic of Korea
2.5@
Democratic Republic of the Congo
2@
R²'='0.66121@
Somalia
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)@
Japan'1920c2010@
China,'Taiwan'1952c2012@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Annotations@
India'1950c2010@
Ghana'1960c2010@
USA'1800c2010@
Brazil'1960c2010@
Dem.Rep.Congo'1960c2010@
UK'1830c2010@
South'Korea'1960c2010@
China'1952c2012@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
33
Resource/Environment'Costs?
>  >  >  34
Land'Resources'Consumption
Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T
1000@
Per*capita*urban*land*use/m2
900@
800@
700@
600@
500@
400@
300@
200@
100@
0@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/'
35
Land'Resources'Consumption
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Per*capita*urban*land*use*
2010T
1000@
y'='8.2016x'c'256.29@
R²'='0.28754@
US@
Australia@
Per*capita*urban*land*use/m2T
800@
Frace@
Canada@
600@
400@
Italy@
Poland@
200@
0@
30@
c200@
Russia@ UK@
Japan@
Spain@ Brazil@
Mexico@
China
India@
Germany@
S.Korea@
Egypt@ Philippines@
40@
50@
60@
Danmark@
Netherlands@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%*
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/,'and'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012.
36
Land'Resources'Consumption
Per*capita*GDP*vs.*Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T
1000@
US@
y'='340.47x'c'1106.8@
R²'='0.44924@
Australia@
Per*capita*urban*land*use/m2
800@
Frace@
Canada@
600@
Danmark@
Italy@ Netherlands@
Germany@
400@
Poland@
Russia@
200@
India@
0@
c200@
3@
3.2@
Egypt@
Philippines@
3.4@
3.6@
China
3.8@
Japan@
UK@
Spain@
Brazil@
Mexico@
S.Korea@
4@
4.2@
4.4@
4.6@
4.8@
5@
Per*capita*GDP/2010*USD
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/,'and'the'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.
37
Energy'Consumption
Energy Use Per Capita
9000
8000
Kg of Oil Equivalent
7000
6000
5000
China
4000
United States
3000
2000
1000
0
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for'IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request.
38
Energy'Consumption
Energy*Intensity*;*Total*Primary*Energy*Consumption*per*Dollar*of*
GDP*T
(Btu*per*Year*2005*U.S.*Dollars*(Market*Exchange*Rates))T
90000@
BTU*per*Year*2005*U.S.*DollarsT
80000@
70000@
60000@
50000@
United'States@
40000@
China@
30000@
20000@
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for'IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request.
2011@
2010@
2009@
2008@
2007@
2006@
2005@
2004@
2003@
2002@
2001@
2000@
1999@
1998@
1997@
1996@
1995@
1994@
1993@
1992@
1991@
1990@
1989@
1988@
1987@
1986@
1985@
1984@
1983@
1982@
1981@
0@
1980@
10000@
39
Energy'Consumption
Urbanization Rate and Energy Intensity
Energy Intensity (kg oil equivalent per 1,000 USD)
4,500
4,000
Turkmenistan
3,500
3,000
Ukraine
2,500
2,000
Uzbekistan
Russia
1,500
1,000
R² = 0.1378
India
500
-
Germany
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Singapore
Japan
90% 100%
Urbanization Rate (Urban Population / Total Population)
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for'IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request.
40
Energy'Consumption
Per Capita GDP and Energy Intensity
Energy Intensity (kg oil equivalent per 1,000 USD)
4,500
4,000
Turkmenistan
3,500
3,000
Ukraine
2,500
2,000
Uzbekistan
Russia
1,500
1,000
R² = 0.17351
India
500
-
Germany
-
Japan
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Per Capita GDP (2000 constant USD)
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for'IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request.
41
Energy'Consumption
US Energy Intensity vs. Energy Consumption Per Capita
Energy Per Capita
Energy Intensity
900
9,000
800
China,'2011@
8,000
700
7,000
600
6,000
500
5,000
400
4,000
300
3,000
200
2,000
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
100
1910
1900
1890
1870
1880
China,'2011@
1,000
0
Energy Intensity
Energy Consumption Per Capita
10,000
0
Year
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for'IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request.
42
Pollution
Photograph of person surrounded by smog removed due to copyright restrictions.
Beijing,'2013.'Source:' http://gbtimes.com/life/china-gets-tough-air-pollution
43
Pollution
Photograph of person surrounded by smog removed due to copyright restrictions.
London,'952.'Source:'hAp://blog.ifeng.com/article/22421665.html
44
China’s'Urbanization:'What’s'So'Special?
>  Then, what’s so special about China?
>  Is China really an outlier?
45
Concluding'Remarks
>  China is unique
o  Normative vs. Positive Standards
>  Why?
o  Scale matters
o  Internal complexities are unprecedented
46
Normative'vs.'Positive'Standards
>  To be good doesn’t necessarily mean to be normal
o  Despite the “norm” given by the fitting line (in terms of the relationship
between urbanization and economic development), most countries have
failed to adhere to the norm.
o  China is among the few developing countrieseconomies where
urbanization is relatively healthy.
o  Even among these few countries/economiesChina is probably the one
with the worst beginning conditions, which makes China’s achievements
even more valuable.
47
Winners
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*1960*;*2010;*China,*1952;2012T
5@
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
4.5@
2012@
2002@
1992@
2010@
2000@
4@
1990@
1982@
2012@
3.5@
1980@
1972@
1962@
1952@
2005@
1970@
3@
1960@ 2000@
1978@
1960@
2.5@
1990@
1952@
2@
R²'='0.66121@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@
World'1960@
S.Korea@
Annotations'2010@
China'1952c2012@
China'Annotation@
World'2010@
China,'Taiwan'1952c2012@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'on'China#
Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008,
48
Scale'MaAers
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World,*2010T
5@
Lg(PPP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
Qatar@
Equatorial'Guinea@
4.5@
Greece@
United'States'of'America@
Australia@
China,'Taiwan@
Germany@
United'Kingdom@
France@ Japan@
Italy@
Republic'of'Korea@
Russian'Federation@
4@
Thailand@
Egypt@
Sri'Lanka@
India@
Viet'Nam@
3.5@
Malaysia@
Gabon@
Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@
Libya@
Brazil@
South'Africa@
Cuba@
China
Ukraine@
Syrian'Arab'Republic@
Mongolia@
Philippines@
Iraq@
Kenya@
Argentina@
Jordan@
Dem.'Peopleks'Republic'of'
Korea@
Ghana@
3@
Somalia@
2.5@
10@
20@
30@
Democratic'Republic'of'the'
Congo@
40@
50@
R²'='0.65291@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@
Annotations@
Linear'Lg'(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
49
Scale'MaAers
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
50
Scale'MaAers
>  Fast speed and fair economy outcomes may not
be unique, but these achievements become
valuable when considering the huge scale of the
country.
>  Why scale matters?
o  Huge scale may change the basic settings of the stage.
o  Partial equilibrium -> general equilibrium
o  Absolute amount usually matters when it comes to public goods, or public
“bads”, negative externalities such as air pollution or GHG emission
51
Internal'Complexities
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
52
Urbanization'Rate'at'the'Province'Level
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'6th'National'Census'data
53
Urbanization'Rate'at'the'Prefecture'Level
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'6th'National'Census'data
54
Unbalanced'Urbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*Provinces*1952;2012;*Background:*World,*2010T
5@
Qatar)
United@States@of@America)
Japan)
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
4.5@
Greece)
Equatorial@Guinea)
Republic@of@Korea)
Brazil)
''Shanghai@
''Beijing@
Russian@Federation)
''Tianjin@
Argentina)
4@
3.5@
Sri@Lanka)
''Jiangsu@
''Zhejiang@
''Inner'Mongolia@
''Guangdong@
''Liaoning@
''Shandong@
2012@ ''Fujian@
Thailand)
China@ ''Jilin@
''Hebei@
''Hubei@
''Chongqing@
''Shaanxi@
''Heilongjiang@
''Ningxia@
''Shanxi@
''Xinjiang@
''Henan@
''Hunan@
''Qinghai@
''Hainan@
''Sichuan@
''Jiangxi@
''Guangxi@
''Anhui@
Ukraine)
''Gansu@
''Yunnan@
Mongolia)
Philippines)
''Guizhou@ 2005@
''Tibet@
India)
3@
Jordan)
Shanghai@
2000@
Kenya)
1978@ Liaoning@
Heilongjiang@
1960@
1990@
Xingjiang@
Inner'Mongolia@Jilin@
Jiangsu@
Gansu@
Hebei@
Ningxia@
1952@
Shanxi@
Jiangxi@
Zhejiang@
Qinghai@
Chongqing@
Fujian@Guangdong@
Shandong@
Hubei@
Hunan@
Shaanxi@
Henan@
Anhui@
Yunnan@
Guangxi@
Guizhou@
Sichuan@
2.5@
2@
China,@Taiwan)
Tianjin@
Dem.@PeopleSs@Republic@of@Korea)
Beijing@
R²'='0.66121@
Somalia)
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
World'2010@
Annotations@
China'1952c2012@
China'Annotations@
China'East'1952@
China'Middle'1952@
China'West'1952@
China'East'2010@
China'Middle'2010@
China'West'2010@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'
6th'National'Census'data
55
Unbalanced'Urbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*1952;2012,*with*China*Prefectures*2010;*Background:*World,*2010T
5@
Qatar)
United@States@of@America)
Japan)
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
4.5@
Greece)
Equatorial@Guinea)
China,@Taiwan)
Republic@of@Korea)
Russian@Federation)Brazil)
4@
Argentina)
2012@
Thailand)
China@
Jordan)
3.5@
Ukraine)
Sri@Lanka)
2005@
India)
3@
Mongolia)
Philippines)
2000@
Kenya)
1978@
1960@
1990@
Dem.@PeopleSs@Republic@of@Korea)
1952@
2.5@
R²'='0.66121@
2@
Somalia)
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
World'2010@
Annotations@
China'1952c2012@
China'Annotations@
China'East'Prefectures'2010@
China'Middle'Prefectures'2010@
China'West'Prefectures'2010@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'
6th'National'Census'data
56
Unbalanced'Urbanization
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*Provinces*1952;2012;*with*Guangdong*Prefectures*2010;*Background:*
World,*2010T
5@
Qatar)
United@States@of@America)
Japan)
Lg(GDP*per*Capita)2010*Dollars*($)
4.5@
Greece)
Equatorial@Guinea)
China,@Taiwan)
4@
Thailand)
Qingyuan@
Sri@Lanka)
India)
Shenzhen@
Guangzhou@
Foshan@
Zhuhai@
Brazil)
Russian@Federation)
Argentina)
Zhongshan@
Dongguan@
Guangdong'2012
China@
Yangjiang@
Maoming@Zhaoqing@
Shaoguan@
Shantou@
Chaozhou@
Zhanjiang@
Yunfu@
Heyuan@ Jieyang@Shanwei@
Philippines)
Meizhou@
2005@
3.5@
3@
2012@
Huizhou@
Jiangmen@
Republic@of@Korea)
Jordan)
Ukraine)
Mongolia)
2000@
Kenya)
1978@
1960@
1952@
2.5@
1990@
Dem.@PeopleSs@Republic@of@Korea)
Guangdong'1952
R²'='0.66121@
2@
Somalia)
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
Urbanization*Rate/%
World'2010@
Annotations@
China'1952c2012@
China'Annotations@
Guangdong'1952@
Guangdong'2012@
Guangdong'Prefectures'2010@
Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'
6th'National'Census'data
57
Unbalanced'Urbanization
Photograph courtesy of kenner116 and sterlingcollege on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
>
Despite similar urbanization level, rural Vermont(right) is different from rural
Guizhou(left).
>
In the developed countries, the countryside and the city imply different
styles of life; however in developing countries, they mean different
qualities of life.
>
The two differ in terms of infrastructure accessibility, consumption level,
educational quality, or even life expectancy.
58
Unbalanced'Urbanization
>  Therefor, China’s urbanization (and the developing world’s in
general) can be viewed as a process of “voting with feet”.
>  Putting another way, the developed world is in a state of
urban-rural equilibrium, but the developing world isn’t.
>  In China, the mobility is further facilitated by characteristics of
regional economy (rather than international economy, as
seen in the Europe): perfect factor mobility, same currency, etc.
>  Challenges: natural tendency toward over-urbanization (Harris
and Todaro. 1970)
>  Corrective policy tools: Hukou?
59
Thank'you!
60
MIT OpenCourseWare
http://ocw.mit.edu
11.S945 Urbanizing China: A Reflective Dialogue
Fall 2013
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