Vanilla
Vanilla
Marshmallow
licorice
milk
coconut
white peach
Apple
apple
cherry
fruit punch
melon
midori
grape
lemon
orange
watermelon
Coconut
Coconut
Pina Colada
Sugar
Milk
Marshmallow
Coffee
Walnut
Peanut Butter
Peanut Butter
Brown Sugar
Rootbeer
Rootbeer
Peppermint
Mint Chocolate
Dr. Pepper
Bubble Gum
Bubblegum
Strawberry
Mint
toothpaste
Buttered Popcorn
Popcorn
Milk
Jalapeno
Banana
medicine
egg nog
peanut
cotton candy
Sesame
Cinnamon
Cinnamon
Cotton Candy
Root Beer
Berry
Mint
Medicine
Grapefruit
Jalapeno Pepper
Jalapeno Pepper
Peanut Butter
Strawberry Dacquiri
Strawberry
Strawberry Dacquiri
Strawberry
Shortcake
Cherry
Raspberry
Generic Sugar
Candy
Cinnamon
Caramel
Mean Class Ratings
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
French Vanilla
Red Apple
Coconut
Peanut Butter
Root Beer
Bubble Gum
Buttered Popcorn
Cinnamon
Jalapeno
S. Daquiri
Standard Deviations
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
French Vanilla
Red Apple
Coconut
Peanut Butter
Root Beer
Bubble Gum
Buttered Popcorn
Cinnamon
Jalapeno
S. Daquiri
% Positive Experience
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
French Vanilla
Red Apple
Coconut
Peanut Butter
Root Beer
Bubble Gum
Buttered Popcorn
Cinnamon
Jalapeno
S. Daquiri
50
40
30
20
10
10
 (X^
)
ij
j = 1
0
-50
-30
-10
10
-10
30
-20
-30
-40
Aversive
Pleasureable
-50
10
 (R )
ij
j = 1
50
70
60
50
40
10
 ABS(X^
ij
j=1
– Xj)
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
10
30
40
 ABS(R
ij
j=1
– Xj)
50
60
70
Measurement
• Measurement: assigning numbers to reflect the relative or
absolute amount of some property
• Goal is to achieve objectivity: "When description gives way to measurement, calculation replaces debate." 4 types of Scales:
Categorical: Where do you live?
(1) Arlington
(2) Beacon Hill
(3) Cambridge
(4) Somerville
Ordinal: Rank the following colas, from best to worst:
(Coke, Meijer, RC, Shaw's,)
1st: Coke 2nd: RC
3rd: Meijer 4th: Shaw's
Interval: Rate the 4 brands of colas, on a 10 point scale:
S
M
RC C
0...1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9...10
very bad
fantastic
Ratio: How many cans of Coke did you drink last year? ____
Fresh-Samantha Paradox
Fresh Samantha Flavors
Average Rating
Market Share
Carrot
2.7
33%
Orange Carrot
3.0
0%
Orange
2.3
33%
Soy Shake
2.0
33%
1
worst
2
3
4
best
Highest average ranking, but 0 market share
(4 points)
(3 points)
1st Choice
2nd Choice
(2 points)
(1 point)
3rd Choice 4th Choice
(A)
Carrot
Orange-Carrot
Orange
Soy Shake
(B)
Orange
Orange-Carrot
Carrot
Soy Shake
(C)
Soy Shake
Orange-Carrot
Carrot
Orange
3 cognitive stages in answering a survey question
interpret
question
retrieve information
&
form judgment
map judgment
onto response
scale
Do people interpret the question as intended?
• What brand of soft drink do you typically buy?
interpret
question
retrieve information
&
form judgment
map judgment
onto response
scale
Can people retrieve the relevant information?
• How many ounces of alcohol did you consume last year?
interpret
question
retrieve information
&
form judgment
map judgment
onto response
scale
How do people select responses?
• How successful are you on a scale from 1 to 10?
interpret
question
retrieve information
&
form judgment
map judgment
onto response
scale
Effects of response scale format
How successful have you been in life ?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
very
not at all
-5
not at all
-4 -3 -2 1
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
very
Response scale may provide cues as to the
expected or "normal" levels of a behavior
How many times do you floss in a typical day ?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 >10
How many times do you floss in a typical year ?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 >10
How likely are you to develop gum disease? How much would you pay for a bottle of Scope mouth wash? Response scale may provide cues as to the
expected or "normal" levels of a behavior
How many hours a day do you spend watching TV ? 7%
_____
18%
_____
up to _
_ to 1
26%
_____
1 to 1_
15%
_____
1_ to 2
18%
_____
16%
_____
2 to 2_ more than 2_
How many hours a day do you spend watching TV ? 62%
_____
23%
_____
up to 2_ 2_ to 3
8%
_____
3 to 3_
5%
_____
3_ to 4
2%
_____
0%
_____
4 to 4_ more than 4_
Extracting sensitive information
•
Do you happen to have done X in the last year?
•
As you know, many people have been doing X these days. Do you
happen to have done X?
•
Do you know anyone who has done X? How about yourself?
•
Pull a coin from your pocket. If it lands Heads, answer Question 1.
If it lands Tails answer Question 2:
1. Is your birthday between January 1st and June 1st ?
2. Have you ever done X?
0.5
"YES"
25%
H
0.5
65%
0.5
"NO"
25%
"YES"
40%
"NO"
10%
0.5
T
Have done "X"
0.8
0.2
Have not done "X"
Question Order
1.
How satisfied are you with
your life overall?
1.
How is the weather down
there?
2.
How satisfied are you with
your life overall?
Question Order
1.
How many dates did you have
last month?
1.
How satisfied are you with your
life?
2.
How satisfied are you with your
life, in general?
2.
How many dates did you have
last month?
r = 0.66
r = 0
Question Wording
• The government is spending too little on "welfare"
•
Yes
No
25%
75%
The government is spending too little on "assistance to the poor"
Yes
No
65%
35%
"Double Barreled" Questions
• Do you like Rudy Guiliani's policies and the way he has conducted
himself after the World Trade Center disaster of September 11th ?
Yes
No
• Do you like low-salt wheat thins and other Nabisco snack products?
Yes
No
Leading questions
• "A roach disk poisons a roach slowly. The dying roach returns to the
nest and after it dies it is eaten by other roaches. In turn these roaches
become poisoned and die."
• How effective do you think this product would be in killing roaches?
not effective
slightly effective
very effective
The importance of context
1.
How bad is it to jaywalk?
1.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
not at
very
all bad
bad
2.
How bad is it to spray paint
the side of a building?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
not at
very
all bad
bad
How bad is it to murder your
professor?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
not at
very
all bad
bad
2.
How bad is it to spray paint
the side of a building?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
not at
very
all bad
bad
Which information do you choose to emphasize?
•
"It is estimated that disposable diapers account for less than 2 percent
of the trash in today's landfills. In contrast, beverage containers, thirdclass mail, and yard waste are estimated to account for about 21
percent of the trash in landfills."
•
Given this, would it be fair to ban disposable diapers?
•
It is estimated that disposable diapers create over 3 billon pounds of
trash. These plastic in these diapers take 20,000 years to disintegrate."
•
Given this, should disposable diapers be banned?
YES
YES
NO
NO
Ease of recall affects liking
Condition 1
Condition 2
List 10 reasons to buy a BMW:
List 1 reason to buy a BMW:
1)
__________________
1)
2)
__________________
3)
__________________
4)
__________________
5)
__________________
6)
__________________
7)
__________________
8)
__________________
9)
__________________
10) __________________
__________________
calculating expected value &
expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
Introduce
0.6
hit
flop
Decision
0.4
+ $4 M
+ $1 M
Do not introduce
Introduce
Decision
0.6
0.4
Do not introduce
hit
flop
+ $4 M
- $2.5 M
A more complicated example
"X" succeeds
Introduce "X"
0.7
0.3
Decision
Introduce "Y"
Neither
"X" fails
- $12 M
"Y" succeeds
+ $46 M
"Y" fails
- $4 M
0.1
0.9
0M
+ $8 M
"X" succeeds
Introduce "X"
0.7
0.3
Decision
Introduce "Y"
.7 * $8 =(5.6)
+
"X" fails
- $12 M
"Y" succeeds
+ $46 M
"Y" fails
- $4 M
0.1
0.9
.3 *.1 * $46 =(1.38)
+
+ $8 M
.3 * .9 * -$4 =(-1.08) =
5.9
5.9 (with research) – 2 (without research) = 3.9