Professor Mary Rowe, Cambridge, MA 02139
STRATEGO AERO-I
Secret Instructions
Please—quietly—by yourself—decide on the probability that Sandy
King will emerge with an outcome Sandy would have wanted. Please
express this probability as a percent, where 100% equals certainty of a
good outcome.
Each person in your group should—without discussion—write
down his or her own estimate of the probability Sandy will get what Sandy
wants. Each of you should decide for yourself what Sandy would have
wanted as an outcome.
One person in your group should then average these probabilities, for
a group average.
There may be wide variation among these estimates. Please—
someone in the group—give the group average secretly to the instructor.