Queuing Formula: Single Server λ Utilization : ρ= =λτ µ Little 's law : L=λW W = expected wait time in system = D + 1 = D+τ µ D = expected wait time in queue for G1/G/1 ρ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ SCVa + SCVs ⎞ ≅ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟⎜ 1− ρ ⎝ µ ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ρ ⎛ SCVa + SCVs ⎞ ≅ ( τ) ⎜ ⎟ 1− ρ ⎝ 2 ⎠ Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved Queuing Formula: Multiple Servers k k−1 ⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ( kρ) ⎛ ρ ⎞⎛ 1 ⎞ ( kρ) ⎞ For M/M/k system: D = ⎜ ⎟ π0 = ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ π0 ⎟ ⎜⎜ ⎝ kµ−λ ⎠ ⎝ (1−ρ) k!⎟⎠ ⎝ 1-ρ ⎠⎝ µ ⎠ ⎜⎝ (1−ρ) k!⎟⎠ λ 1 where π0 = and ρ = k i k−1 kµ ( kρ) + ( kρ) i! (1−ρ) k! ∑ i=0 D = expected wait time in queue for M/G/k ⎛ 1 + SCVs ⎞ ≅ ( expected wait time in queue for M/M/k ) ⎜ ⎟ 2 ⎝ ⎠ ρ ⎛ τ ⎞ ⎛ SCVa + SCVs ⎞ A quick approx. is D≈ ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ 1− ρ ⎝ k ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved Queuing Formula: Multiple Servers, No Queue (λτ ) For M /G /k/k: P r [ # in system = n ] = n ! n k ∑ i=0 (λ τ ) i and i! P r[ # in system = k ] = "loss probability" For M/G/∞, number in the system is Poisson with mean = λτ and with variance = λτ Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved Cool off Finish line Recovery OK Services Blisters & Cramps Not OK Dehydration Triage Emergency Care Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved Cool off Finish line Recovery p = 0.975 Services Blisters & Cramps 0.6 1-p =0.025 0.3 Dehydration 0.1 Emergency Care Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved Cool off λ = 80/min Recovery 78/min Services Blisters & Cramps 1.2/m 2/min 0.6/m Dehydration 0.2/m Emergency Care Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved Blisters & Cramps τ = 15 min Not OK 2/min What’s the wait for a nurse? 1.2 Triage τ = 1 min How many servers? 0.6 Dehydration τ = 60 min How many cots are needed? 0.2 Emergency Care τ = 15 min Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved What’s the prob. need a back up? λτ = workload per minute Blisters & Cramps τ = 15 min 1.2 Not OK 2/min 0.6 Triage τ = 1 min λτ = 2 Dehydration τ = 60 min 0.2 Emergency Care τ = 15 min How many servers? What’s the wait for a nurse? λτ = 18 How many cots are needed? λτ = 36 What’s the prob. need a back up? λτ = 3 Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved λτ = workload per minute Triage τ = 1 min How many servers? Not OK 2/min M/G/k queue λτ = 2 k=3 ρ = 0.66 expected wait time in queue ρ ⎛ τ ⎞ ⎛ SCVa + SCVs ⎞ ≈ ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ 1− ρ ⎝ k ⎠⎝ 2 ⎠ Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved λτ = workload per minute 1.2/min Blisters & Cramps τ = 15 min What’s the wait for a nurse? M/G/k queue λτ = 18 k > 18 ρ = λτ/k expected wait time in queue ρ ⎛ τ ⎞ ⎛ SCVa + SCVs ⎞ ≈ ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ 1− ρ ⎝ k ⎠⎝ 2 ⎠ Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved λτ = workload per minute How many cots are needed? 0.6/min Dehydration τ = 60 min Model as M/G/k/k or M/G/inf queue λτ = 36 E[# runners] = 36 V[# runners] = 36 σ [# runners] = 6 Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved λτ = workload per minute What’s the prob. need a back up? 0.2/min Emergency Care τ = 15 min Model as M/G/k/k λτ = 3 (λ τ ) Loss probability = P r [ # in system = k ] = k k! k ∑ i=0 (λ τ ) i i! k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Pr[#=k] 0.75 0.53 0.35 0.21 0.11 0.05 0.02 Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved OK 78/min Cool off τ = 10 min Recovery τ = 20 min Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved Services Rest rooms (5 min) Phones (2 min) Clothes (1 min) Food (2 min) OK 78/min Cool off τ= 10 min λτ = 780 λτ = workload per minute Recovery τ= 20 min λτ = 1560 Services Rest rooms: λτ = 390 Phones: λτ = 156 Clothes: λτ = 78 Food: λτ = 156 Copyright 2005 Stephen C. Graves All Rights Reserved