Climate of the Southeast United States V , C , I

National Climate Assessment Regional Technical Input Report Series Climate of the Southeast United States VARIABILITY, CHANGE, IMPACTS, AND VULNERABILITY Edited by: Keith T. Ingram Kirstin Dow Lynne Carter Julie Anderson Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability © 2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-‐‑American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Printed on recycled, acid-‐‑free paper ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Citation: ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǱȱȱǯ Keywords:ȱȬĴȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ climate impacts, climate modeling, climate variability, coastal, drought, education, electric ȱǰȱ¡ȱ ǰȱĚǰȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȬ ȱ intrusion, sea level rise, silviculture, social vulnerability, Southeast, storm surge, tropical ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱ ę ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ Tribal Government or Non-‐‑governmental entity. Front Cover Images: ȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȂȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱǲȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱǲȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱĴǯ About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the Third National ȱȱǻǼȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ£-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ input reports highlighting past climate trends, projected climate change, and impacts ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the Third NCA report, ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǱ ȱȱȱęȱǱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ¡ȱǻǼȱ ȱȱ ǯ¡ǯȦ. Printed copies are avail-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯǯȦǯȱ Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability EDITORS Keith T. Ingram (University of Florida) Kirstin Dow (University of South Carolina) Lynne Carter (Louisiana State University) Julie Anderson (Louisiana State University) EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE Eleanor K. Sommer (Gainesville, Florida) ȱȩȱȱȩȱ Acknowledgements ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ £ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Editor'ʹs Note: Access to color maps and graphs for this document are avail-‐‑ ȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ Disclaimer: ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯ ix Contents Acknowledgements ix CHAPTER 1 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Diversity and Vulnerabilities Time-scales of Interest to Southeast Decision Makers Future Scenarios Process for Developing this Book Report Organization References CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST USA: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 General Description Extreme Events Trends Future Projections References CHAPTER 3 HUMAN HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 Climate Change and Human Health Heat and Cold Air Quality Effects on Respiratory and Airway Diseases Storms, Extreme Weather, and Sea Level Rise Harmful Algal Blooms and Marine Toxins Vector-borne and Zoonotic Disease Water Quality and Quantity Human Migration and Displacement and Healthcare Disruption References CHAPTER 4 ENERGY PRODUCTION, USE, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast Key Issues and Uncertainties References 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 14 18 26 36 43 44 45 46 47 48 51 52 54 55 62 63 74 81 82 CHAPTER 5 CLIMATE INTERACTIONS WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 5.1 Background 5.2 Air Quality 5.3 The Urban Heat Island Effect 5.4 Effects on Precipitation 5.5 Effects on the Wild Land-Urban Interface (WUI) 5.6 Vulnerability and Risks to Tourism 5.7 Impacts on Energy, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Vulnerability 5.8 Impacts on National Security 5.9 Impacts on Urban Migration 5.10 Impacts on Coastal Environments 5.11 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment 5.12 References 86 87 89 90 92 96 97 99 101 101 102 102 103 CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 109 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Evaluation of Southeast Transportation Systems Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Systems Conclusions References CHAPTER 7 AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Agriculture in the Southeast USA Climate Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in the Southeast USA Assessment and Research Needs References CHAPTER 8 FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 Historical Perspective Southeastern Forest Types Changes in Forest Type Across the South Current and Projected Forest Stresses Ecosystem Services Adaptation and Mitigation Options Conclusions References 110 111 112 124 126 128 130 133 143 151 155 165 166 167 172 173 177 180 183 183 CHAPTER 9 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 Background Climate Change Effects Complicating Factors Adaptation and Mitigation Research Needs References CHAPTER 10 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 190 191 193 200 201 203 204 210 Water Resources in the Southeast Key Constraints to Water Resources in the Southeast Historical Climate Trends Uncertainty in Predicting Future Climate and Hydrologic Impacts Water Resources Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Options References 212 212 215 215 216 229 230 CHAPTER 11 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTHEAST USA 237 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 Background Southeastern Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems Southeastern Savannas Southeastern Freshwater Marshes and Swamps Southeastern Tidal Marshes and Swamps Coral Reefs of the Southeast USA Summary References CHAPTER 12 MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 Definitions Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in the Southeast GHG Emission Reduction Activities Research Needs and Uncertainties References 240 240 244 246 250 254 257 259 271 272 273 278 290 291 CHAPTER 13 CLIMATE ADAPTATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 Definition of Adaptation Major Stresses on the Southeast Adaptation in the Southeast Supporting Adaptive Capacity Summary References CHAPTER 14 SOUTHEAST USA REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTENSION, OUTREACH, EDUCATION, AND TRAINING 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Why Climate Education Is an Essential Part of Climate Science A Starting Point for Climate Education: Climate versus Weather Context for Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Delivery Methods Program Integration Barriers to Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Regarding Climate Change 14.7 Ongoing Education, Outreach, Extension, and Training Programs 14.8 Conclusions 14.9 References 295 297 299 302 314 316 316 321 323 324 325 333 334 335 335 339 339 Chapter 1 Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary LEAD AUTHORS Keith T. Ingram (ktingram@ufl.edu; Southeast Climate Consortium, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Lynne Carter (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Kirstin Dow (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Julie Anderson (School of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Senthold Asseng (Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Charles Hopkinson (Department of Marine Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Charles Konrad (Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina) Steven McNulty (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Kenneth Mitchell (Region IV, US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Kevin Moody (Region IV, US Department of Transportation, Atlanta, Georgia) Dale Quattrochi (Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Huntsville, Alabama) Paul Schramm (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) LaDon Swann (Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium and Auburn University Marine Extension and Research Center, Mobile, Alabama) 1 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŗŗȱ ȱȱǻȱŗǯŗǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ Figure 1.1 Map of the states in the Southeast region for the US National Climate Assessment. Note that the region and report also covers Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary 1.1 Diversity and Vulnerabilities ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱĴǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱěȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ dominate during the spring and summer, tropical systems that are important during ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱĚǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱśǼȱȱ¢ȱǻȱşȱȱŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱŝǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱ ȱǻȱşǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱřȱȱŝǼǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŞǯşȱ ȱǰȱȱȱŗřƖȱǻȱŗǯŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻŗŞǯśƖǼǰȱȱǻŗŞǯřƖǼǰȱȱǻŗŝǯŜƖǼǰȱȱȱȱǻŗśǯřƖǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȬȱŘǯŘȱȱ ȬŘȱȱ¢ǼȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŗŖǼȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŚǼǰȱȱǻȱŝǼǰȱęȱȱȱǻȱ şǼǰȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱǻȱśǼȱǯ The diversity of people, natural and managed ecosystems, and resources of the ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǼȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻȱşǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ 3 4 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǻȱŜǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŞǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ǻȱŗŘǼǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱ ȱȱǻȱŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŚǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ natural resources and the industries that depend on them. Thus, it is not surprising that ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŘȱȱŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŚǼǯ Table 1.1 Population of the Southeast USA and Puerto Rico in 2000 and 2010 State/Territory 2000 2010 Change (%) Alabama ŚǰŚŚŝǰŗŖŖ ŚǰŝŝşǰŝřŜ ŝǯś ŘǰŜŝřǰŚŖŖ ŘǰşŗśǰşŗŞ 9.1 ŗśǰşŞŘǰřŝŞ ŗŞǰŞŖŗǰřŗŖ ŗŝǯŜ Georgia ŞǰŗŞŜǰŚśř şǰŜŞŝǰŜśř ŗŞǯř ¢ ŚǰŖŚŗǰŝŜş ŚǰřřşǰřŝŜ ŝǯŚ Louisiana ŚǰŚŜŞǰşŝŜ ŚǰśřřǰřŝŘ 1.4 Mississippi ŘǰŞŚŚǰŜśŞ ŘǰşŜŝǰŘşŝ 4.3 North Carolina ŞǰŖŚşǰřŗř şǰśřśǰŚŞř ŗŞǯś South Carolina 4,012,012 ŚǰŜŘśǰřŜŚ ŗśǯř Tennessee śǰŜŞşǰŘŞř ŜǰřŚŜǰŗŖś ŗŗǯś ŝǰŖŝŞǰśŗś ŞǰŖŖŗǰŖŘŚ 13.0 Puerto Rico řǰŞŖŞǰŜŗŖ řǰŝŘśǰŝŞş -‐‑2.2 ȱȱ ŗŖŞǰŜŗŘ ŗŖŜǰŚŖś -‐‑2.0 Total 67,473,856 76,350,620 13.2 ǱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯ Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary 1.2 Time-scales of Interest to Southeast Decision Makers ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ the science community can provide useful information at these shorter timescales, as ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ An advantage to providing climate information at shorter time-‐‑scales in the SE is ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ ÛȬȱȱȱǻȱŘǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱÛȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱÛȱȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱÛȬȱȱ signal. 1.3 Future Scenarios ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱŘȱȱŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ment alternatives. ȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ Řȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȃȱȱǯȄ ȱŗȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬĜȱǯȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱŗȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŗǯŘǼǯȱȱȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŗŖŖȱ ȱȱȱŗȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱ 5 6 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ŗȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ adaptation and mitigation. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ -‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Figure 1.2 Population projections for the Southeast USA for the A2 (greatest climate change) and B1 (least climate change) scenarios. 1.4 Process for Developing this Book This document has been produced through collaboration among three Regional Inte-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȬȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ Ȭ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱşŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary ŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘřǰȱŘŖŗŘȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻengagement@usgcrp.govǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ 1.5 Report Organization ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǲȱǻŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ ǻřǼȱȬȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ and outreach. 1.6 References ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǭȱȱȱȱŗŘȬŖŖŗǱȱŗȬśŜǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦȦȏȏǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱŚŝȱǻŘǼǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦŘŖŖşȦşǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ-‐‑ ȦȏȏȏȏȏŝȬŘřȬŗŘǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱǱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŖȦȦŘŖŗŖȬŖŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦĚ-‐‑ ǯȦȦȦŘŖŗŗŖŞȏǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ £ȱŜŘȱǻřǼǱȱŞŝŝȬŞŞśǯȱ 7 Chapter 2 Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future LEAD AUTHORS Charles E. Konrad II (konrad@unc.edu; Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina) Christopher M. Fuhrmann (fuhrman1@email.unc.edu; Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Amanda Billiot (Louisiana State Climate Office, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Barry D. Keim (Louisiana State Climate Office, Louisiana State University, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Michael C. Kruk (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina) Kenneth E. Kunkel (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina) Hal Needham (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Mark Shafer (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Norman, Oklahoma) Laura Stevens (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina) Acknowledgements ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǯ 8 Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Key Findings f ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱĚǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tropical cyclones. These events have ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŗşȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ the SE, including the Caribbean, and increase across the northern tier through ȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Řŗȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱȱǼǯȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Řŗȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ degree days, the number of consecutive hot days, and interannual temperature variability are projected through the end of the 21st century. f There is much uncertainty regarding future projections of drought, severe ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ cyclones is projected to decrease through the end of the 21st century. Mean rela-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖȱȱŘŖŖȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼǯ 2.1 General Description ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ topography of the region is diverse. In the southern and eastern portions of the region, ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ 9 10 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 2.1 Map of average daily January minimum temperature. Source: Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM; http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/. ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱǻŗǰśŖŖȱȱřǰŖŖŖȱǼȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻŘǰŖŖŖȱȱŜǰŜŖŖȱǼǯȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ region for relocation and tourism. ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱȱ ȬȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻřśǚȱȱ ȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱ the spring, the sharp contrast in temperature and humidity in the vicinity of the jet stream can promote the development of severe thunderstorms that produce damaging ǰȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ Figure 2.2 Map of average daily July maximum temperature. Source: Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM; http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/. 11 12 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŜŖǚȱȱȱȱȱŘŖǚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘǯŗǼǯȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱşśǚȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŝśǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘǯŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ across the Caribbean due to its tropical climate. In Puerto Rico, these variations relate to ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱśŖǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǰŖŖŖȱǼǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱşśǚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǼȱȱ ȱĚȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǼȱǻȱŘǯřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŜŖȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱŚŖȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱ Figure 2.3 Map of annual average precipitation. Source: Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM; http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/. Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ Ǽȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŗŖŖȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśȱȱŘśȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯŚǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻřśǚȱȱȱ Ǽȱ¡ȱĴȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱŗȱȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŜȱȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ Figure 2.4 Annual average snowfall from 1981 to 2010. Source: Global Historical Climatology Network, or GHCN; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-daily/. 13 14 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¡ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǻ ȱŗşŞŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡£ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ totals across the Caribbean in the summer and fall seasons. 2.2 Extreme Events ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱŗşŞŖǰȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Heavy Rainfall and Floods ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱĚȱĚȱȱȬȱȱĚȱȱ have enormous impacts on property and human life. These events result from a variety ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ Ȭȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱĚȬȱȱȱȱĚȱĚȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱŗşşşǰȱ¢ȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Droughts ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱ ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŗşşŞȬŘŖŖŘȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖŞȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǞŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱǰȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ ǻȱ¡ȱŘǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ Extreme Heat and Cold ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ ȱŝȱȱŞȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱęȱȬȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ£ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱǞŘŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ŗŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱ£Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱ 15 16 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Extreme Drought amongst a Record Flood ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱ climate-‐‑related conditions. In the early summer ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ something unusual, the simultaneous occurrence ȱȱĚȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ǰȱȱȱ £ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱŗşŝřȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǼǯȱ Box 2.1 ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ûȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ Las Niñas tend to dry out the Gulf Coast region ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ sippi, leaving them high and dry and producing ȱǯȱ ǰȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ Louisiana. On May 14, 2011, the US Army Corps of Engineers opened the first gate on the Morganza Floodway in Louisiana to relieve flooding on the Mississippi River. Source: US Army Corps of Engineers; http://www.flickr. com/photos/30539067@N04/5722952407). Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŚȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬřŝǚȱȱ¢ǯȱ Winter Storms ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¡ȱŜȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱŜȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ŗŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱŗŖȱ¢ȱȱǼȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŚǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǞřȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ December 2002 produced more than 1 in of ice accretion across parts of the Carolinas. ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŗşşŚȱǰȱȱȱŗǯŞȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱŗşŞşȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱȱśŞȱǰȱȱȱȱŗȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘȱȱǼȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱ¢Ȅȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǼȱǻȱȱşȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¢ȱȱ 17 18 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱęȱ£ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ȱȬȱȱȱŗşśşȱȱŘŖŖŜȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȬȬ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ęǯ Tropical Cyclones ȱŗşŞŖǰȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚȱȱŘŖŖśȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱŗşŖŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ Ěǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ¡ȱŘǯŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŝśȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱŗŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱȱŝśȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢Ǽǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱřȱȱśǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ¢ȱŗśȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱŘŖȱ ¢ǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ 2.3 Trends This section provides analyses of climatic trends for the SE region. These include trends ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŞşśǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ treme events, sea level rise, and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Precipitation No long-‐‑term trends are revealed in the time series of annual or summer season pre-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯśȱȱȱȱŗŚȱȱŗśȱȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future Gulf Coast Storm Surge Database ȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśśŖȱȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŞŞŖǯȱȱ to the creation of this dataset, such information ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȬ ȱęȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȬęȱȱȱ£ȱ storm surge levels. ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ surge activity, in terms of both surge magnitudes ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ Ȃȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ to the Everglades, has generally observed less ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Box 2.2 the largest surges have generally occurred in ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ large surges have also impacted the Mid-‐‑Atlantic ȱȱ ȱȱǯ The complete dataset and map are hosted by ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ surge.srcc.lsu.edu. Points on the map are interac-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and obtain information about that surge event. These data are supported by robust metadata ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ compares active and historic cyclones, incorpo-‐‑ rating historic surge observations into a discus-‐‑ sion about surge potential in an active cyclone. Such discourse brings storm surge history to life, potentially enhancing surge forecasts, hurricane ǰȱȱȱ ǯ This map depicts 195 peak storm surges along the U.S. Gulf Coast since 1880. Each circle represents a unique storm surge event. Larger, darker circles depict higher magnitude storm surge levels. Source: Hal Needham and Barry Keim, Louisiana State University 19 20 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 2.5 Annual (black/dotted line) and summer season (red/grey) precipitation anomalies for the SE. Source: Cooperative Observer data from the National Climatic Data Center. ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱęȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĚȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻǯǯǰȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȬȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱÛȬ-‐‑ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱĚȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱę¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱÛǼȱȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱÛǼȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱĚ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱ ȱȱÛȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱÛȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱÛȱȱȱŗşşŝȬŗşşŞǯȱȱ ǰȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱŗşşşǼǯȱ The severity of recent droughts across the southeastern region raises the possibility ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŗşşŘǰȱŗşşŚǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ prominent 20th and early 21st century droughts are not unusual in the longer-‐‑term con-‐‑ ¡ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗǰŖŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŜȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŝȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȯȱŗŜȱ¢ȱȃ-‐‑ ȄȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŞȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŗşşŚǼȱȱ¢ȬȬȱŗşȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŞŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱĴȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ Heavy Rainfall and Floods ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘǯŜǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŘȱȱŘřȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 21 22 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱĚȱȱ¡Ȭǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȇȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱĚȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǱȱĴǱȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǯ Temperature ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŘǯŝǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşŝŖǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŗŜȱȱŗŝȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ is also related at least partially to increasing daily minimum temperatures due to hu-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ Figure 2.6 Time series of the extreme precipitation index (using a 5-year running average) for the SE for the occurrence of 1-day, 1 in 5 year extreme precipitation events (red/grey line) and 5-day, 1 in 5 year events (black/dashed line). Source: Cooperative observer data from the National Climatic Data Center and updated from Kunkel et al. (2003). Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future Figure 2.7 Annual (black/dotted line) and summer season (red/grey) temperature anomalies for the SE. Source: Cooperative observer data from the National Climatic Data Center. ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȃ ȱǰȄȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȬŗŞȱȱȱȬŘŖȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ÛȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯ Extreme Heat and Cold ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱşśǚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŗřȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱŗşśŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŝśǚȱȱ¢ȱȱ 23 24 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES increasing across most of the SE region. This increase is most pronounced over the past ȱȱǻȱȱŗŚȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼȱȱȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǱȱĴǱȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǯ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ally been declining across most locations in the SE, though there is much decadal and ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŗşȱȱŘŖȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗşȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱĴȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻǼȱǻ ȱȱȱŗşşřǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ-‐‑ ning in the 19th century have gradually forced the citrus industry and other industries, ȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ and converted to agricultural land, reducing the moisture in the atmosphere above ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ Winter Storms ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗƖȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗşřŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱŜȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻȱȱŘǯŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ-‐‑ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱ Ǽȱȱȱ ĴȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱ change since the middle of the 20th century but more interdecadal variability relative ȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱ Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ much-‐‑improved ability to identify and record storm damage. In the case of tornadoes, ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗȱȱǼȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗşřŖȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ increased in tornado-‐‑prone areas. Hurricanes ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱřȱȱǼȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǲȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ĵȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱǻĵȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ŗşřŖȱȱŗşśŖǰȱȱŘŝȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱŗřȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŝŖȱȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱȱȱÛȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻĵȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱ ȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŗşŖŖȱȱŗŞŞŖǰȱ¢ǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŗşŜŖǼȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬŗşŚŖǯȱȱȱȱŗşŚŖǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȦȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ in the number of short-‐‑lived storms detected since the introduction of satellites that ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŞŝŞȱ ȱŘŖŖŞȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱǼȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ŗşŝŖǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱĵȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŖŖȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱĵȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚȱȱśȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴȱ increasing trends in ACE and major Atlantic basin hurricanes to anthropogenic global ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŗǰśŖŖȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 25 26 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ an overall declining trend into the mid-‐‑20th century. This result is also supported by ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬŗŞȱ¢ȱ to the early 1990s. Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperatures ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱśŖŖǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ records indicate variations in global sea level of as much as 100 meters that correspond ȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬŗşȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗǯŝȱȱȱ¢ȱǻƸȦȬȱŖǯŘȱȱȱ¢ǼȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱřǯŖȱȱřǯśȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŖǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ-‐‑ less, higher mean sea levels threaten the security of critical infrastructure and coastal ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŜȱȱ ŘŖŗŗȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǻŗşŝřȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Trends in SSTs during the 20th century reveal a cooling over the North Atlantic near ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻŗǯŜǚȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ 2.4 Future Projections This section provides a summary of future climate projections for the southeastern ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱřȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻřǼȱȱ ȱȱ¢-‐‑ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗřǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ uncertainty and agreement. Precipitation ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱŘȱȱŗȱȱ-‐‑ narios from the IPCC AR4 reveal both increases and decreases in precipitation across the SE by the mid-‐‑21st century. Average annual precipitation is projected to decrease ¢ȱŘƖȱȱŚƖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯŞǼǯȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Ȭȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ¢ȱŘŖřśǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the SE that are smaller than typical year-‐‑to-‐‑year variations seen in the observed record ǻȱȱřŝȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŘƖȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŞśȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŗȬŘŖŖŖȱȱ period, indicating much uncertainty in precipitation projections by the end of the 21st ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ most of the region by the mid-‐‑21st century, particularly along the southern Appala-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘǯşǼǯȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ projected increases in atmospheric stability and decreases in convection. These trends ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱ¢ȱ 27 28 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 2.8 Annual and seasonal difference in precipitation (percent) between projections for 2041– 2070 and the baseline of 1971–2000. Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȬ£ȱǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱŘǯŗŖȱ ȱȱ observed and simulated mean decadal average precipitation changes for the SE from Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future Figure 2.9 Mean change in annual number of days with precipitation exceeding 1 inch (projections for 2041–2070 minus the baseline of 1971–2000). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). ŗşŖŖȱȱŘŗŖŖǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱŗşŖŗȱȱŘŖŖŖȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗśȱěȱřȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻŘǼȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ 2.10, the observed trends and variations in decadal average precipitation are small and ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ the 21st century indicate increased decadal variability in precipitation compared to the ŘŖȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ 21st century portions of the time series indicate an overall increase in precipitation in ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱŚŜȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯ 29 30 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 2.10 Observed decadal mean annual precipitation change (percent change from the 1901 to 2000 average) for the southeastern US (black lines) and the 20th and 21st century simulations from 15 CMIP3 models for the high (A2) emissions scenario (gray lines). Source: Kunkel et al. (2013), Figure 45. Temperature Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase across the SE through the 21st ¢ǯȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱȱȱǻřǚȱȱśǚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ şǚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘǚȱȱŚǚȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱřȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱŘŜȱȱŘŝȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘǯŗŗǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ability than the mean annual temperature change. It is important to note that the range of temperatures across the model simulations is large, particularly through the middle ȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ĴȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ¡ȱȱ¡ȱşśǚȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻřśȱȱ¢ȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱŘǯŗŘǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŗȱȱǻěȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱşśǚǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱşŝƖȱȱŘŖŝƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱśȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future Figure 2.11 Annual and seasonal difference in temperature (°F) (projections for 2041–2070 minus the baseline of 1971–2000). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). ȱŗŖǚȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱŘǯŗřǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱřŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱřŘǚǰȱȱęȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ 31 32 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 2.12 Mean change in annual number of days with a maximum temperature exceeding 95°F (projections for 2041–2070 and baseline of 1980–2000). Areas with hatching indicate more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change in the number of days with a maximum temperature exceeding 95°F, and more than 67% of the models agree on the sign of the change (see Kunkel et al. 2013). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). ȱȱśŖǚǼȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘśƖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşƖȱȱ ŘřƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱŚŘƖȱȱŚşƖȱ ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱȱśȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱ Projections of mean annual and seasonal temperature variability across the SE ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖřśǰȱŘŖśśǰȱȱŘŖŞśǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ řȱȱȱȱǻŘǼȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ture. Secular changes in the temperature variability are calculated as a percent change Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future Figure 2.13 Mean change in annual number of days with minimum temperatures below 10°F (projections for 2041–2070 and baseline of 1980–2000). Areas with hatching indicate more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change in the number of days with a maximum temperature exceeding 95°F, and more than 67% of the models agree on the sign of the change (see Kunkel et al. 2013). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŗȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱǯȱ The models reveal a trend of increasing annual variability of temperature across all ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱśƖȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ability of 24% by the end of the 21st century. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱę¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗşŖŖȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱřȱȱ 33 34 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǻȱŘǯŗŚǼǯȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯ Droughts ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ there is much uncertainty because of variations in the projections of future precipita-‐‑ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ is projected to increase throughout the 21st century, thereby providing additional ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Figure 2.14 Observed decadal mean annual temperature change (percent change from the 1901 to 2000 average) for the southeastern USA (black lines) and the 20th and 21st century simulations from 15 CMIP3 models for the high (A2) emissions scenario (gray lines). Kunkel et al. (2013), Figure 43. Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȬȱȱȱǻěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Hurricanes ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱřȱ ȱśǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperatures ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ vulnerable to sea level rise. As the sea level rises, storm surge and coastal erosion from ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ report on sea level rise describes several global scenarios that project a mean rise of ȱŘŖȱȱŘŖŖȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱǻŗŘŖȱȱŘŖŖȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǻŘŖȱȱŜŖȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ Řŗȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻřǚǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱę-‐‑ 35 36 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱ model errors and biases in the IPCC AR4 projections, for instance, a cold bias in sea ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Air Quality ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȯ such as increased temperatures, increased solar radiation, reduced precipitation, in-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȯȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱ ȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȬȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚǯśȱȱŝǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŘȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĴȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ by changes in atmospheric conditions. 2.5 References ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŗŞŞŖȬ ŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŘŗŚȬŗŘŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŝȱǻřǼǱȱŞŖśȬŞŗŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşŖȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗśŖŗȬŗśŗŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŘřȱǻśǼǱȱŝşśȬŞŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱřŘŝȱǻśşŜŚǼǱȱŚśŚȬŚśŞǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean. Climatic ChangeȱŗŗŘǱȱŞŗşȬŞŚśǯǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ŗŞśŗȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȬŜǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ ȬȬŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱęǯȱȱȱśŜȱǻ¢ǼǱȱŗşŗȬŘŖŗǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŗŞȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŘŜȬŜŚŖǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱřŝȱǻŗǼǱȱřȬŗŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ Caribbean from a regional climate model. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱřŗȱǻŗŘǼǱȱŗŞŜŜȬŗŞŝŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ££ǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ Carolinas. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŞşȱǻŗǼǱȱŘŖȬŘŞǯ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱŗşşŝȬşŞȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŖȱǻşǼǱȱŗŞŗşȬŗŞŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǱȱŗşŚŞȬŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŘȱǻşǼǱȱŗřŖŘȬŗřŗśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚśȱǻŞǼǱȱŗŗŚŗȬŗŗśśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ hurricanes. ȱȱȱřŗȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŖşŞȬŗŗŗŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱ ȱȱĴȱǵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞřȱǻśǼǱȱŝŘřȬŝřŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȬȱȱǵȱ ȱȱȱŗşȱǻŚǼǱȱśŚŞȬśŜřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ Ĵǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȬȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱŚŖŘȬŚŗşǯȱǱȱ ¢Ȭ ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱŗşȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦŗŖŝŗŘȬŖŗŗȬşŗŗşȬŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱřŖȱǻŚǼǱȱřŚřȬřśŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ Ǳȱȱ ChangeȱŘǻŗǼǱȱŚśȬŜśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŗśȱǻŘŘǼǱȱřŗŞŞȬřŘŖśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ trends revisited. ¢ȱȱĴȱřŝǰȱŗŖŝŖŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŚřřŘŗǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŝǰȱŗśŝŖŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŚřŞŞŞǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱ¢ǵȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱŞşȱǻśřǼǱȱśśřȬśŜŖǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȮȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǵȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻŚǼǱȱŚřřȬŚŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȬȱȬȱǯȱȱ ŚśřȱǻŝŗşŞǼǱȱŗŖşŖȬŗŖşřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ States. ¢ȱ¢ȱŘşȱǻŗǼǱȱřȬŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱŜȱǻŘǼǱȱřŜŚȬřŝŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŚȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱśŗȬŜśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱěȱȬȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ Change śŖȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŜřȬŞŘǯ 37 38 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘşȱǻŚǼǱȱŘŞşȬřŖśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřŘȱǻřǼǱȱŘŗŝȬŘŚŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŚȱǻŝǼǱȱşŖŗȬşŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱ drought and relation to the North Atlantic high circulation. ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱŘŞȱǻřǼǱȱřŚřȬřśŖǯ ȬǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ model and climate indices. ¢ȱȱĴȱřśǰȱŗŗŝŖřǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞŖřřŝŘŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱŘŗȱǻşǼǱȱŗŞśŖȬŗŞŜŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tions. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŖȱǻŞǼǱȱŗŖşśȬŗŗŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȂȱȱ -‐‑ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦęȦȦȏȦȏȏȏȏǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŘȱǵȱ ¢ȱȱȱśŝȱǻŗǼǱȱŗȬşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĜǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱŗŖşǰȱŘŘřŖŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŚŖŖŚŜşŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǵȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢Ȭ-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱřŜśȱǻŗŞŜŖǼǱȱŘŜşśȬŘŝŗŜǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ. Ed. S. Solomon, D. ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱĚȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱřŞȱǻşǼǱȱŘŖŖřȬŘŖŗřǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘȱ£Ȭȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŘȱǻŝǼǱȱŗŜřŖȬŗŜŚŚǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱClimatic Change şşȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŘŚŝȬŘśşǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŗŘǰȱŗŜŗŖŝǲȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜŖŖŝśŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ-‐‑ lution spatial dataset. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŝȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗřŖřȬŗřŘśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŜǯȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŗŝȱǻŚǼǱȱřŗřȬřŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŘŖȱǻŗŚǼǱȱřŚşŞȬřśŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ under global climate change scenarios. ¢ȱ¢ȱřŘȱǻŜǼǱȱśŜŗȬśŞŘǯ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŝśŗǱȱȱȱȱȱ and multidecadal variability. ¢ȱŘřǰȱřŘŘŖǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞŖŖŗśşŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŚŝşǯȱ¢ǰȱ¢-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ȱŗŗȱǻŗŖǼǱȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŖřŗŝŗǯ ĵǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱǻŗşŞŜȬ ŘŖŖśǼǯȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřřǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜŖŘśŞŞŗǯ ĵǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȬȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ landfalls. ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŘśŘȬŗŘŜřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŘŜȬŗŚŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ 114, D23102. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ A.K. Srivastava, M. Sugi. 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. ȱ 3 ǻ¢ǼǱȱŗśŝȬŗŜřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱřŖȱǻŚǼǱȱśŘŘȬśřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ ŚşȱǻŝǼǱȱŗśřŞȬŗśŚŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ peratures and precipitation over land and oceans. ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻřǼǱȱŜśřȬŜŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŗŞşśȬŘŖŖŖǯȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřŖǲȱǱȱ ŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖřŖŗŞŖśŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȃ -‐‑ ȱȄȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱȱŗşȱǻŗŝǼǱȱŚŗřŝȬŚŗśřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŜȱǻŗǼǱȱřřȬŚŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱȱŘǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗŚŘȬŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŖŖǯȱǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱŞŞȱǻŗŞǼǱȱŗşŝȬŘŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£Ȭǰȱǯȱ -‐‑ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ¢ȱǱȱ ȱȱŗŞśŗȬŗşŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱ¢ǱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Atlantic tropical cyclone counts.ȱȱȱȱŘřȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŘśŖŞȬŘśŗşǯ ǰȱȬǰȱǯǯȱęǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ Atlantic hurricanes. ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŘŜŚȬŗŘŝśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǵȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřŜǰȱŗŚŞŖŘǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖşŖřŞŜŖşǯ 39 40 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřŘǰȱŗŜŝŗŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖśŖŘŘşŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱȱ¢ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦŖŖřŞŘȬŖŗŗȬŗŘŗŚȬ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¡ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǯȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱŜȱǻŞǼȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cillation control of climate in Puerto Rico. ȱȱȱŗŗȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŘŝŗřȬŘŝŗŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱŞŝȱǻŘŚǼǱȱŗşŝȬŘŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗǰśŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱŚŜŖȱǻŝŘśŝǼǱȱŞŞŖȬŞŞśǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŗŜȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŜŞȬŗŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ North America simulated by a global climate model. ȱȱĴȱŞȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŖŖȬŗŖŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǵȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŘȱǻşǼǱȱŘŘŚřȬŘŘśŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŘŞȬśŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱřŞǰȱŗŚŞŖřǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŗŖŚŝŝŗŗǯ ¡ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱŗşśŖȬŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŗŖŘȱǻŘǼǱȱŗȬŗŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȬȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱŚŚřǰȱŗȬŗŗǯȱ Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřŜǰȱŗśŝŖŘǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖşŖřŞśŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ŗŗŜǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŗśřŜŝǯ ǰȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȮȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǯǯȦ ȦŘŖŗŗŖŞȏǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱęǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ mates from tide gauges and altimeters. In ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱǱȱ¢Ȭ ȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŘŘǼǱȱśşŜŘȬśşŞŘǯ ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȦȱȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦ£ǯ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŖŘȦǯŘŚŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŗȱǻŗśǼǱȱŗŞŞşȬŗşŘŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱȱȱŘŝŖȱ¢ǯȱȱŚŚŝȱǻŝŗŚśǼǱȱ ŜşŞȬŝŖŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱ Ěȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŗŝŝȬŗŗŞŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȄǯȱ¢ȱȱĴ 31, ŗŝŗŖşǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŚŖŘŖśŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱǯȱǻȱǼǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřŗȱǻŘǼǱȱŗśŜȬŗŝŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ęǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŜȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŗśŝŗȬŗśŝśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŜȱǻŗŞǼǱȱŝřŘŚȬŝřŘşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǵȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşşřȬŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱ ȱĴȱřŜǰȱŖśŜŖŘǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖşŖřŜśŜŚ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. ȱŚŜŗȱǻŝŘŜŜǼǱȱşŝŗȬşŝśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȮȱŗŗśǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŗŚŗŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ clones. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŗȱǻşǼǱȱŘŖŜśȬŘŖŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱȬ ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȭęȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱřŗȱǻśǼǱȱśśŗȬśŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱęǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ the drying of Meso-‐‑America in future climate projections. ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŝǼǱȱŘŖŖřȬŘŖŗŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tion models. ȱ¢ȱřŗȱǻśǼǱȱśŞŝȬśşŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȮȱŗŖŝȱ ǻŚŝŚŞǼǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŗŖŖŗśŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŚȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŗŗŖřȬŗŗŗřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ Ǳȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȦŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřŝǰȱŗŚŝŖřǲȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŚřŞřŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱ variability over the last millennium, and the potential for future hydroclimate change. -‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŗşǼǱȱśŖŘŗȬśŖŚśǯ 41 42 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻŝǼǱȱŞŜŗȬŞŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱŗŖŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŝřȱ ǻŗŘǼǱȱŗşŚŝȬŗşŜŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŘŜȱǻŘǼǱȱŗşşȬŘŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘŞŖȱǻśřŜřǼǱȱśŜŚȬśŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȬ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȬȱȱȱŗŜȱ¢ȱȱȱ North America. ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱŞŗȱǻŗŘǼǱȱŗŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĜǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ North America since A.D. 1300. Climatic ChangeȱŞřȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŗřřȬŗŚşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĜǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȬ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱřŞȱǻŗŗȬŗŘǼǱȱŘŚŚşȬŘŚŜŜǯ £ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴȱśȱǻŚǼǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŞŞȦȱ ŗŝŚŞȬşřŘŜȦśȦŚȦŖŚŚŖŗŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǯȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǻȱǼȱ-‐‑ land ice sheet. In State of the Climate in 2011. ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ 93 ǻŝǼǱȱŗřŚȬŗřŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ North Atlantic. ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŚŜşȬŗŚŞŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ genically enhanced global radiative forcing. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ 104 ǻśǼǱȱŗşŝŗşȬŗşŝŘřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱřŖŞȱǻśŝŘşǼǱȱŗŝśřȬŗŝśŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǱȱŗşśŚȬŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŗǼǱȱŞŜȬşřǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢¢ȱŗŗȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŖŖŝȬŗŖŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȬȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŖşȱǻśŝŚŘǼǱȱŗŞŚŚȬŗŞŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ ¢-‐‑ ¢ȱŗŘǱȱŗřśşȬŗřŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱŞŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Puerto Rican speleothem. ȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřŖŞȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŘřȬŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ sity. ȱ¢ȱřŜȱǻşȬŗŖǼǱȱŗŞśŗȬŗŞŜŚǯ Chapter 3 Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA COORDINATING AUTHOR Paul J. Schramm (pschramm@cdc.gov; Climate and Health Program, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Carina G.M. Blackmore (Department of Environmental and Global Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) William Crosson (Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, Alabama) Christopher T. Emrich (Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) Maury Estes (NASA, Huntsville, Alabama) Michael Goodman (NASA, Huntsville, Alabama) Erin K. Lipp (Department of Environmental Health Science, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Yang Liu (Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia) Glenn Morris (Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Richard P. Stumpf (National Ocean Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland) Lauren Thie (Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Public Health, North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Raleigh, North Carolina) Michelle C. Tomlinson (National Ocean Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland) Acknowledgements ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱǯ 43 44 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻǼǱȱȱȱǲȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢Ȧ ¢ȱǲȱǰȱ¡ȱ ǰȱȱȬȱǲȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǲȱȬȱȱ£ȱǲȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǲȱȱȱȦȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ other areas, such as mental health and food security may also occur, but more research ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯ Key Findings f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱęǯ f ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ǯ f ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěǯ f Sea-‐‑level rise could impact human health by increasing storm surges and disrupting infrastructure and ecosystems. f Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱĴ f ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ 3.1 Climate Change and Human Health ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ Ĵǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ the assessment of climate-‐‑related health issues in the region. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ events through improved monitoring, prediction, education, communication, engage-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ mation into a form that is useful for public health can also help in managing and reduc-‐‑ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ£Ȭȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ 3.2 Heat and Cold As a result of global climate change, global mean temperatures have been rising and ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘǚȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚǯśǚȱȱȱȱȱ şǚȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŞŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ through the end of this century. Summer temperatures alone could rise by as much as ŗŖǯśǚȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȂȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ negative impact on human health. Despite the increase in average temperatures in the SE over the past several decades, heat-‐‑related mortality overall has been decreasing. Improvements in health care and ȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ£-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖřǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȬŗşşŖȱȱȱȬŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȬ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱŜŞȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŗşşŘȱȱŘŖŖŜȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŗřȱȱȱȱȱŜȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ŗşȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ 45 46 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ on the public health system. Improving education and communication, particularly ȱȬȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ¢ǰȱȱěȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ collaboration and connect climate data to health data. Moreover, designing and uti-‐‑ £ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ heat-‐‑related threats. ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ the optimal temperature range for major crops including corn, peanuts, soy, rice, and ȱǻ ęȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȬŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ cold temperatures is much less pronounced than the response to high temperatures, ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ ȱȱĵ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ 3.3 Air Quality Effects on Respiratory and Airway Diseases ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǲȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱȱǰȱȱ higher temperatures leading to higher fossil fuel consumption. In turn, atmospheric ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱĴǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱĴȱǻŘǯśǼǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ PMŘǯśȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȬ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ŞȬȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŚŖȱȱ ŘŖśŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ǰȱȱȱȱŗȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱřȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱŞȬȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŘǯśȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ £Ȭȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ There is less consensus in the estimated PMŘǯś concentration trends in the SE. A small ȱȱŗȱȦ3 has been reported in one study, as increased future emissions un-‐‑ ȱȱȬȬȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ crease of PMŘǯśȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱŘǯś by as ȱȱřŖƖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ PMŘǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǀȱŗȱȦ3ǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ęǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱĴȱǻǼȱĴȱ¢ȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ-‐‑ Ĵȱȱ ĵȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ that the incidence of allergies and other respiratory illnesses related to airborne pollens ȱȱȱǯȱ 3.4 Storms, Extreme Weather, and Sea Level Rise ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱĚǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱ 47 48 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘǚȱȱŗŖǚȱǻȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ North Carolina, and Georgia are projected to have some of the largest numbers of older ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ tential of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin, based on longer storm lifetimes ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬŗşŝŖȱǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ also impeded transportation and prevented many people from obtaining emergency ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱřřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱĚȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱȱŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ level rise have the potential to protect public health by supporting emergency response ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ 3.5 Harmful Algal Blooms and Marine Toxins ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¡Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱĴǲȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ řǯŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱěȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ěȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Table 3.1 Summary of Potential Climate Impacts on Marine Toxins in the Southeast. Organism Location Trend Citation(s) ¢-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱ Moving up the Eastern in the 1990s ǲȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǲȱ-‐‑ ance in Mississippi and Louisiana Tester et al. 1991, ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜ ¢ ȱȱ¡ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞ Campbell et al. 2010 ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ from the mid-‐‑1990s Landsberg et al. ŘŖŖŜ ȱ South Carolina, ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǲȱ ȱȱ observed ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱęȱȱǻǼȱȱ¡ȱęȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱǻǼȱ ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱ 49 50 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱęȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǼǰȱ-‐‑ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǰȱěȱȱȱ śŖǰŖŖŖȱȱśŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱ and some related species. ǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȃȱȄȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ humans. During a bloom, hospital admissions for respiratory illness increase, and asth-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ byproduct of red tide is changes in tourism plans that can lead to millions of dollars in ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱśǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼȱȱȱ ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ to humans. ¢ȱȱis a cyanobacterium of subtropical origin that ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ blooms. ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ěȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŗşŞŝǰȱȱȱǻȱȃȱ ȄǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŞŞȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŗǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ of tropical ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¡¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ temperatures favors development of ȱspp. ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡Ȧȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŜȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖśȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ these storms have contributed to the spread or relocation of blooms in the past and it is ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ 3.6 Vector-borne and Zoonotic Disease ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱ include malaria, vectored by ȱsp. ǲȱȱ¢ ȱǰȱ-‐‑ nya, and dengue fever vectored by ȱ¢ and ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŗşśŖǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ screens help interrupt transmission by separating the vectors from susceptible hosts. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ -‐‑ ǰȱȱȱŘŖŖřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¡ȱȱĚȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŗşŞŝǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ susceptible vertebrate hosts to propagate the disease transmission cycle. Regardless ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ£ȱ ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ-‐‑ ǲȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ these diseases in the region. The greatest climate change related vector-‐‑borne disease concerns are associated ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢. The hu-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ high host densities. As energy prices increase, the cost of running air-‐‑conditioning may ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ 51 52 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES addition, climate change is predicted to increase the severity of tropical storms and hur-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ and susceptible human hosts, and it is possible that any climate-‐‑associated ecological ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ £ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŖśśǰȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ 3.7 Water Quality and Quantity ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŖƖȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ǲȱ¡ȱĴȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ ǲȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱęǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱǻȱǰȱȱȱ£Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱ£Ǽǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱ-‐‑ sion, or virulence. Changing climate or environments could alter or facilitate transmis-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȦȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ¡¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ǰȱȱ£ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱ¡ȱȱȱǻǼȱ ranges of certain disease and pathogens related to moderate changes in temperature, ǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǼȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱserovars continue to be ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȂ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ of ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱinfections that are currently driving regional and national trends in increasing disease incidence ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ Naturally occurring pathogens, including the marine bacteria ȱsppǯǰȱare ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǱ ǯȱ¢, ǯȱę, ǯȱȱȬŗȱȱǯȱ¢. ȱspp. are ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱillnesses are common in the coastal ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱarise ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ Pathogenic ȱspp.ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱŗśoȱǻ£Ȭ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ states and southeastern Atlantic states include a greater overall diversity of spp. ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱinfections as-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ£Ȭ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ temperature is greater than 20oǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşşŝȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŗşŞŝȱȱŗşşŝǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ than 20oȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱřŖŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱill-‐‑ ȱǻ£Ȭ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱspp. infections have ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŗśƖȱȱŗşşŜȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŚŞȱȱŗşşŚȱȱȱśŗƖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱşŖȱȱȱŜŞƖȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŞŖȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ 53 54 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ spp.ǰȱ spp., spp., ¢ȱspp., and a range of enteric viruses, such as noroviruses, hepatitis A viruses, and enteric viruses. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢Ǳȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱĚ ǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱęȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱÛȬȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱÛȱȱ ȱę-‐‑ ly higher levels of fecal contamination that are measured using fecal coliform bacteria ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱǰȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱ ȱȱÛȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱę¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ -‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ for ȱspp. ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ŘŖŖśȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱspp. infection increased ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱŘŘȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŗşşşǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĵȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ 3.8 Human Migration and Displacement and Healthcare Disruption ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşřǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱĴȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ řǯŗȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ understood aspects of this additional need is related to medical surge and the need to create accurate plans for the accommodation of increased patient volumes both inside ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Figure 3.1 Disaster diaspora populations from Mississippi by evacuation location. 3.9 References ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏȦȏ Ȧȏ ǯ¡Ǜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱŞŗȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ĚȂȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱŗŝŘȱǻŘǼǱȱŗşşȬŘŖŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ£ȱȱŘǯś concentrations to global changes. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱşȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŗŗŗȬŗŗŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ ǼǱȱȱȱȱ health response. ȱȱȱȱŗŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŘŖȬřŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱ ȱǱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŗȬŘŗŞȱǻȱŗŖǼǯ 55 56 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ oceanography and human health. ¢ȱŗşȱǻŘǼǱȱşŚȬŗŖŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȬȱŗşşşǱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŖŖȬŚŖşřǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ ǯȦ Ȧ ŖŖŚŖşřȦ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗřȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŗŖşŞȬŗŗŖŘǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱśśȱǻŘǼǱȱŘřȬŗřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȯ ȱǰȱŘŖŖŗȬŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśřȱǻŞǼǱȱŘřȮŚśǯȱ Ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱŘśȱǻřǼǱȱŘşŝȬřŖŜǯ ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ of several globally important crops. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŜŖȱǻśǼǱȱŚŜşȬŚŝŚǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱŗŗŝȱǻŚǼǱȱśŖŞȬśŗŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱęǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱśȱǻŘǼǱȱŗşşȬŘŗŘǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŗřŝȬŗŜśǯȱǱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢Ĵǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ǰȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĚ ȱ¢¢ǯȱȱȱ¢¢ȱŚŜǻŗǼǱȱŜŜȬŝśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȬȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŘşȱǻŘǼǱȱŚŚśȬŚśśǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȯŗŖȱǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśşȱǻŗŚǼǱȱŚŗŞȬŚŘŘǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȯ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşȮŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśşǱȱŝŝȮŞŗǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ǰȱŗŖȱǯǯȱǰȱŗşşŜȬŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŜŖȱǻŘŘǼǱȱŝŚşȬŝśśǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŝȱǻŝǼǱȱŘŞŜŜȬŘŞŞŖǯ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱĚȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ fecal coliform levels in Mississippi Sound. ȱȱřŞȱǻŘŖǼǱȱŚřŚŗȬŚřśŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱȬȂǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢Ȭ-‐‑ erating study. ¢ȱȱȱŗřŞȱǻřǼǱȱřŚŖȬřŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰ řşŗȬŚřŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĵǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşŚŞȬŗşşŚǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱşŗȱǻŞǼǱȱŗŗşŚȬŗŗşşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŗŗȱǻŗŚǼǱȱŗŝŗŘȬŗŝŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŝȬŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱŚŜȱ ǻŝǼǱȱşŝŖȬşŝŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱCli-‐‑ ȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ, ed. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŚşşȬśŞŝǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ Drummond, M.A. and T.R. Loveland. 2010. Land-‐‑use pressure and a transition to forest-‐‑cover ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŜŖȱǻŚǼǱȱŘŞŜȬŘşŞǯ Ȃ£ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱěȱ-‐‑ ȱǵȱ¢ȱŗśȱǻŗǼǱȱŞŜȬşŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱřşȬŞŝǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ dian provinces.ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŜǼǱȱřŞśȬřşŗǯ ȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ¡Ǽȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱŗŗŝǱŗŖşśȬŗŗŖŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ strategies. ȱȱȱŝŗȱǻřǼǱȱŗşŚȬŗşŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ -‐‑ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȬǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȦȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱşşȱǻşǼǱȱşřřȬşřşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŖşȱǻȱŘǼǱȱŗşŗȬŗşŞǯȱ 57 58 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, D.R. Easterling, T.R. Karl, G.C. Hegerl, V.N. Razuvaev. 2004. 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Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Washington, DC: Cambridge University Press. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱHarmful Algae 5 (5): 526-‐‑533. Kovats, R.S. and S. Hajat. 2008. Heat stress and public health: A critical review. Annual Review of Public Health 29: 41-‐‑55. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Epidemiology and Infection 132 (3): 443-‐‑453. ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¡¡ȱěȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱEnviron-‐‑ mental Health Perspectives 114 (10): 1502-‐‑1507. ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱReviews in Fisher-‐‑ ies Science 10 (2): 113-‐‑390. Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱǻşǼǱȱŞŚşȬŞśşǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱĵ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱřŖȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŗǼǱȱ 91-‐‑103. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻśǼǱȱŗŚşşȬŗśŖŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱşȱǻřǼǱȱŞŜśȬŞŝŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ȬǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tropical estuary. ȱŘŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŜŜȬŘŝŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱÛȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŚȱǻŚǼǱȱŚşŗȬŚşŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ genus Gambierdiscus. ¡ȱśŜȱǻśǼǱȱŝŗŗȬŝřŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ climate change. ¡ȱśŜȱǻśǼǱȱŜşŗȬŜşŝǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱřś ǻśǼǱȱŚŘşȬŚřśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱŞŝȱǻŘŚǼǱȱŘřřȬŘŚŚǯȱ £Ȭ£ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ. ȱȱȱŚřȱǻŝǼǱȱŗŝŞŖȬŗŝşŖǯ Mississippi Department of Marine Resources. 2011. Assessment of sea level rise in coastal Missis-‐‑ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦŘŖŗŗȬȬęǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȯǰȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŚǲȱśřȱǻŗşǼǱȱŚŗŘȬŚŗřǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱěȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱŗŝȬŘŘǰȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŜǲȱśśřŞȬŚŗ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȯȱǰȱŗşşŘȬŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśŝȱǻŘŚǼǱȱŜşŚȬŜśřǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱŗŖȱǯǯȱǰȱŗşşŜȮŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱŜŖȱǻŘŘǼǱȱŝŚşȬŝśśǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ Ȧ ȦŜŖŘŘśǯ ǵȏƽŜŖŘŘśȏ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and hu-‐‑ man health. ȱ ȱŝȱǻȱŘǼǱȱŚǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȱȱŝȱǻŚǼǱȱ śŘşȬśŚŖǯ 59 60 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĜǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ŗřśȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŞŗȬŘşŘǯ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ £ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦŘǯǯǯǯȦȦƖŘŖȬƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖ Report%202010%20-‐‑%20CRC%20Science%20Panel.pdf ȂǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¡ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŗȱǻŗǼǱȱŗřȬŘś ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ěȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŗŚǼǱȱŚŗŞŜȬŚŗşŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱǱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱŗŖŜȱǻŗŞǼǱȱŝřŘŚȬŝřŘşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ£¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŗŖǱȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŗşȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗŚŗśȬŗŚŘŖǯ £ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ãǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŚŘȱǻŞǼǱȱŞśŝȬŞşŖǯ ĵǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŗşȱǻśǼǱȱŚŝŘȬŚŝŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ river.ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŞȱǻśǼǱȱŗŗŘŝȬŗŗřŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱ ŗşşřǯȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ emergency department operations. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŗȱǻśǼǱȱŚŜŚȬŚŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱŗşŝśȬŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ £ǰȱśŖȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŚśȬŗŜŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ £ȱśśȱǻŘǼǱȱŘşŗȬřŖśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱŗŖşȱǻŘǼǱȱŗśśȬŗśşǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱȱȱǵȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŘȱǻśǼǱȱŗŗřŘȬŗŗřŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱ ¢ȱĴȱȱȱěȱ-‐‑ tionships. ȱȱŚŚȱǻŗŜǼǱȱŚŝŖŚȬŚŝŗśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŚŚŗȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱǭȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱŚřȱǻŗřǼǱȱŚşŝşȬŚşŞŞǯ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱęȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȮȱ112, ŗŚřŗŘǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜŖŖŞŘŜŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱśŜȱǻśǼǱȱ ŜşŞȬŝŗŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱřŜȱǻśǼǱȱ ŗŖśřȬŗŖŜŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱĴȬǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŚřȱǻŝǼǱȱŗŝŚśȬŗŝŜśǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǰȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰŝřȱǻśǼǱȱŗřşśȬŗŚŖřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ -‐‑ ȱȱŜȱǻŘǼǱȱŘśřȬŘśşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱǱȱřřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞŝǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱfor Dengue 2 virus.ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ¢ȱřŜȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŚřȬŗśŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱLoui-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ĴǱȦȦǯȦȦȦŗşşŝȦǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŗşşŞȬŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱŗřşȱǻŚǼǱȱśşŗȬśşŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱûǰȱǯȱûǰȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ£ȱ of populations of an invasive Cyanobacterium in temperate regions. ȱŗśŘȱǻřǼǱȱŚŝřȬŚŞŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¢Ǳȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱřȱǻŗǼǱȱŗřȬŗşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŜǼǱȱŝŘŝȬŝřŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱŘŖŖŖȬŘŖśŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȮȱŗŗřǰȱŗŞřŗŘǲȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝŖŖşŜřşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȮȱǰȱŘŖŖśȬŘŖŖŜǯȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśŝȱǻşǼǱȱřşȬŜŘǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ĵǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŜŖȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŞşŖȬŞşśǯ 61 Chapter 4 Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA LEAD AUTHOR Kenneth L. Mitchell (mitchell.ken@epa.gov; US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Marilyn Brown (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia) Ryan Brown (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Diana Burk (Southface, Atlanta, Georgia) Dennis Creech (Southface, Atlanta, Georgia) Garry P. Garrett (Southern States Energy Board, Norcross, Georgia) Daniel Garver (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Julie Harrington (Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida) David Letson (University of Miami, Miami, Florida) Pat Long (East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina) Stephen A. Smith (Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Knoxville, Tennessee) Karen Utt (Tennessee Valley Authority, Chattanooga, Tennessee) Thomas J. Wilbanks (Oakridge National Laboratory, Oakridge, Tennessee) 62 Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Key Findings f ȱ ¡¢ȱ ŘŝƖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ energy as a region and per person than any other NCA region. f ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻřŗƖǼȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŘŞƖǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ average. f ȱȱȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŞƖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ f ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ and energy distribution infrastructure. f An improved ability to project climate change and its impacts at a more local ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ enhanced strategies to improve the resiliency of energy supply systems are just a ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ 4.1 Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ presented are focused on the 11 continental states. In 2010, states in the SE produced ŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȬȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŗŘȱȱǼǯȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ĴȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱǻęȱȱ Ǽǰȱȱǻȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǼǰȱȱǻȱȱ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǼȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱŗŗȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǲȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱŘŖƖȱęȱȱȱ ȱŘŖƖȱȱŖƖȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ 63 64 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Existing Energy Resources in the Southeast The SE is home to large and varied, though unevenly concentrated, energy resource ǯȱ¡¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱŗŗƖȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǲȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱĴȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ and the number of projects needed to reach generation goals. Coal. ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘǰŖŞŗȱȱȱ ȱǻ¡¢ȱŗŖǯŞȱȱȱȱǼȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŗǰŚŗşȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱřŚŞȱȱǯȱȱŝŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȂȱśŞŘȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŚǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Oil and Natural Gas. ȱŚǯŗȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖȱ ȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱȱŘŖřśǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȦȱȱǯȱȱȱşŝȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱŘŝȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȧȱȱ¢Ĵȱ¢ȱ ǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŚǯŘǼȱ ȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Biomass. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜǰŝŗŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱŘśƖȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱŜǯŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱřǯŗȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Figure 4.1 Natural gas production, 1990 to 2005, (trillion cubic feet). Source: EIA, Energy Annual Outlook 2012 Early Release Figure 4.2 Natural gas pipelines. Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil & Gas, Natural Gas Division, Gas Transfortation nformation System. 65 66 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Nuclear. ȱȱŗŖŚȱȱȱȱȱǰȱřŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱřŜǰŚŖŖȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŞśȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱşŖƖȱǻȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Hydro and Marine Hydrokinetic. ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŗŚƖȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ¢ȱŚȱ ĴȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱȱŚȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ŗȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱęĴȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ microscale hydroelectric systems. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖǯŗƖȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱřśƖȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻ ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ Solar. Solar resources in the 11 states of the SE are not as robust as those found in the ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱśȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱę-‐‑ ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȦ2ȦȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĵȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ£¢ȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Wind. ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǲȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱǰȱǰȱȱěȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŝȱȱřŘȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Geothermal. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȬȱĚǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŝŝŗȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśȱȱŗŘǯȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Case Study: Louisiana Louisiana is an important state for both the pro-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻǼȱ is the only port in the country capable of accom-‐‑ ȱȱȱǲȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȬ Ȭȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱǻǼȱ import terminal at Sabine is the largest of nine ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱęǰȱ ǰȱȱŘŖŖşȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ ȦȦȬ¢Ȭęǯǵƽ Landscape of Energy Production, Delivery, and Use in the Southeast Electricity Production. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ŘřŞȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱřŘƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱřŘƖȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱŝŗƖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱ 67 68 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘśƖǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘřśȱȱȱŝŞƖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱřŖŖȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱřŜȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘŞȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŚǯŗǼǯ Table 4.1 Southeastern States Generation Capacity (2009). Fuel GW Percent Coal 94 31.3 Petroleum 19 Ŝǯř Natural Gas 122 ŚŖǯś Nuclear řŜ 12.1 19 Ŝǯř Pumped Storage 9 3.1 Total 300 GW 100% The SE has a balanced portfolio of resources from an operational perspective. Tra-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ĴȬǰȱȱȱ ěȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ ȱȱȱŘşŘȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱŘśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ Śşŗȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŝŝȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱŚřƖȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱŘŖŖŚȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŜřƖȱȱŝşƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖŘśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯřǼȱǻ ěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖřśȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱ ȬȱǻǼȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ ǰȱȱȱȱ Ŝŝȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡-‐‑ ǰȱŘşȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȂȱěȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱęȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱŞŖȱǲȱ ǰȱǰȱřŖŖȱǲȱ¢ǰȱǰȱřŖŖȱǲȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱŗŖŖȱǲȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱŗśŖȱȱǻ ȱǭȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ ŘŖŗŗǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Figure 4.3 Comparison of regional thermoelectric generation capacity by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, 1995-2025. ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱřŖŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱŗŜȱȱȱǰȱȱřŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŚȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŗśȱǻĴȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŚŖŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŗŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŚǯśȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřǯśȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȬȱȱȱŘśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ recent study estimated available resources for electricity production on the island of ȱȱǻȱŚǯŘǼȱǻ£¢ȬȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱ ęȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Electrical Transmission System. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ interconnected throughout the Eastern Interconnection. The Eastern Interconnection ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¡ȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŞŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 69 70 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Table 4.2 Estimated Renewable Energy Potential for Electricity Production in Puerto Rico. Renewable Resource/ Technology* Electric Energy Production Estimate MWh/year if 10% of Resource is Used to Produce Electricity Percent of the 2006 Electric Energy Demand** ŘǰşŝŝǰŖśŘ 14.4 ŗŜǰşřśǰřŜŖ ŞŘǯŘ ȱǻǼ 3,900,000 ŗŞǯş ȱȮȱ ŗǰŘŖŖǰŖŖŖȱǻǼȱŘŚǰŖŖŖǰŖŖŖȱǻǼ śǯŞȱȱŗŗŜǯś ȱȮȱ ~90,000 0.4 ȱ ¢ ŘǯŜŘŞ 0.01 * ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖǰŜŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ** ŗŗŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǻȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯŚǼȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱřśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŝŘǰřŚŖȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ¡¢ȱ ŞǰŞŖŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱŘǰŜŖŖȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱǯȱȱȱśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗśǰŖŖŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŞȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŘşŜǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŚŖŝǰŖŖŖȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ the national transmission infrastructure in certain locations due to the geographically-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱŗǰřŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǲȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŘŖŘȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻĴȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱĴȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱřǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĝȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŜȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŝǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĝȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Figure 4.4 Regions for North American Reliability Corporations. Electricity Assets in the Southeast. ȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱȱȂȱŗǰŘŜŜȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǻŘśŖȱȱȱǼȱȱřŜƖȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŚȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǻŖȱȱŘśȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚśȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱŘŜşȱȱȱŚȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǲȱŞŖŖȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǲȱŗǰŚŞŗȱȱȱŗŚȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱŗşŚŗȱȱŗşśŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŗȱȱȱŗşśŗȱȱŗşŝŘȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗǰśŗřȱǲȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗǰŖşŚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗşŜŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱȬęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱřǰŘřŗȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşśŘȱȱ ŗşśşǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŞǰřŞŞȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱĜǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱƸǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȃ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻŘśƖȱȱŗşşŖǼȱȱ 71 72 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Ĵȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŗǯśȱȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱ ǻȱŘŖŖşǼǯȄ Case Study: DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȂȱşŖǰśŖŖȱ solar panels have an annual estimated generation ȱ¡¢ȱŚŘǰŖŖŖȱȯȱ ȱȱ serve about 3,000 homes. ȱřŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱśŝśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŚǰśŖŖȱȱ from the road every year for the entire life of the project. The project is also estimated to decrease Ȭȱȱ¢ȱ¡¢ȱŝȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŝŝǰŖŖŖȱȱȱǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦǯ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Energy Use in the Southeast. ȱ¡¢ȱŘŝƖȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯśǼǯȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻřŗƖǼȱȱȱ ǻŘŞƖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ consumption, Louisiana is substantially higher than other southeastern states. Resi-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŗŞƖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯŜǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ that among residential users, the per capita consumption of energy in the SE has risen ¢ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱǻȱŚǯŝǼȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȂȱȱȱ ǻȱŚǯřǼȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱŘŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŚǯŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Figure 4.5 Energy consumption by National Climate Assessment (NCA) region. 73 74 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 4.6 Energy consumption by state in the Southeast. 4.2 Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast Climate change is of concern for energy services in the SE due to the potential for ȱĴȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ as the potential impacts on electricity generating capacity and energy distribution ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǱ ȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǵ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ on energy supply institutions. In general, the changes imply increased de-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Figure 4.7 Per capita energy use by National Climate Assessment (NCA) region. ȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǵ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ ȱȦȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĜǰȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǵ The research evidence ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ management in the investment behavior of some energy institutions, and it is ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǭȱȱȱ energy resource and technology choices. In addition, climate change can be ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ¢ǯ 75 76 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱ issues is limited, including at the regional level, although there is a broad con-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ chapter 2 of this report provides additional detail about historical climate trends in the ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ Climate Impacts on Energy Demand ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ Table 4.3 Energy Consumption Estimates for Petroleum Energy Sources in Physical Units, 2009. MILLION BARRELS Distillate Jet Fuela Fuel Oil LPGb Motor Gasolinec PETROLEUM Residual Fuel Oil Otherd Total FUEL ETHANOL e Alabama 24.4 ŗǯŝ řǯŝ ŜŘǯŞ 0.9 ŗŜǯŗ ŗŖşǯŝ ŘǯŜ 22 ŖǯŞ 2.9 řŚǯŞ 0.1 4.1 ŜŚǯŞ ŗǯŝ ŚŜǯŚ řŗǯś śǯś ŘŖŖǯŜ ŗřǯŞ 13 řŗŖǯŞ ŗŝ ¢ Řŝǯŝ şǯŞ ŞǯŜ śřǯŚ 0.1 ŘśǯŜ ŗŘśǯř 4.9 Louisiana řŘǯŝ ŗŜǯŗ śŞǯś śŚǯŝ ŗŜǯŚ ŞŜǯŘ ŘŜŚǯŜ 3.1 Mississippi 19.9 4.9 3.4 řŝǯŜ ŖǯŞ 9.4 ŝśǯş 2 North Carolina 31.3 1.9 12.2 ŗŖśǯş Řǯŝ 11.1 ŗŜś 9 South Carolina 19 1.1 Řǯŝ ŜśǯŜ 2.9 ŗŘǯś ŗŖřǯŝ śǯŚ Tennessee ŘśǯŘ 11.2 3.3 ŝśǯŚ ǻǼ ŘŞǯŜ ŗŚřǯŞ ŝǯŜ 34.3 ŗśǯŝ śǯŜ şŚǯś 3 ŝǯŗ ŗŜŖǯř ŞǯŜ 321.1 112.7 111.8 903.1 48 223.1 1720 71.8 1325.3 508.5 748.7 3283.7 186.6 798.7 6851.6 262.8 24 22 15 28 26 28 25 27 Southeast ȱ Southeast as a % of U.S. Total a ȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȄ ȱȱęȱȱ c ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ d ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱŗŜȱȱȱ e Includes denaturant b ȱ ǰȱǻǼȱƽȱȱȱȱŖǯŖśǯ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Figure 4.8 Annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by National Climate Assessment (NCA) region (millions). Source: Federal Highway Administration, 2009 Highway Statistics Series. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŘśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬ ȱȱǻȱŚǯşȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ changes may not be large, they may contribute to increases in regional energy demands. Climate-‐‑related demographic shifts are another consideration for energy needs in ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ 77 78 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 4.9 (a) The nine US Census divisions and projected cumulative (2003-2025) changes in primary heating energy, cooling energy, and net changes, as departures from the reference case, for (b) the low 'T (change in temperature) scenario and (c) the high 'T (change in temperature) scenario. The Census divisions are: (1) New England; (2) Middle Atlantic; (3) East North Central; (4) West North Central; (5) South Atlantic; (6) East South Central; (7) West South Central; (8) Mountain; and (9) Pacific contiguous, Alaska and Hawaii, Pacific noncontiguous. (Note: read energy graphs b and c in the order of key—first bar is cooling, second bar is heating, and third bar is net change—for each region.) ©2006 American Geophysical Union; reproduced by permission of the American Geophysical Union. Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA Case Study: Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŝŚǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗȱȱ Ĵȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱ conditions in order to maintain the plant dis-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǞśŖȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ during high river temperatures. ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ ¢ǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦĴȦȦȦŗŗȬŚȬȱŘŖŗŖȏ ȏęǯȱ Climate Impacts on Energy Production and Distribution Critical SE regional infrastructure, such as energy, transportation, and hospitals, al-‐‑ ¢ȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱĚǰȱǰȱȱȱ temperatures, and tornados. Damage to these assets can disrupt services from days to months. ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¢ȯȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ locations. ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŚǯŗŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱTo put these numbers into a national perspec-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱşśƖȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱŘŝƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ production could not be rapidly replaced by imports since major oil import terminals ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱřŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱřŘȱę-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŝƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ 79 80 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 4.10 Time history of offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. Katrina made landfall on day 1 and Rita on about day 28. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǲȱǻǼȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ larly during summer months, that cause electricity demands to rise over periods that ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱ¢ǲȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǼǲȱȱǻǼȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use: Possible Cascading Impacts Climate change may have important indirect implications for energy supply and use. ȱěȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡. All agricultural crops have an optimum range of environmental conditions rela-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱěȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ irrigation pumps. ę¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱ energy cost. Periods of drought may necessitate additional irrigation further increasing electric and diesel pump loads. ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ based on the magnitude of the temperature increase, animal feed prices, and the cost ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱŚŖǚȱȱŝśǚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱĴȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱŗŗȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱǞŗŞŗȱǰȱ ȱǞŘŞǯŜȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǞŚŞȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ The important connection of tourism to energy is illustrated by vacation rentals ȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǞŘŚǯřȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ŘŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȬ ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŘŘƖȱȱ ǰȱŝƖȱȱȱȱȱśƖȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŘǰŗşŜǰȱ ȱȱŜƖȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěǯȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ greenhouse emissions, are important considerations for climate change issues and the tourism sector in the SE. 4.3 Key Issues and Uncertainties ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ use, and enhanced strategies to improve the resiliency of energy supply systems are ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ 81 82 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 4.4 References ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱŘŝǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱŗŗǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦȦ-‐‑ echange.pdf ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȂȱǰȱŗřŘȬŗřşǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȬȦ¢ȱ ǰȱǯȱȃǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȄǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱśǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ ¢ǯ¡ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ¢Ȧ Ȧ śŞǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱ variability and change for the southeastern ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱŗřŝȬŗŜŚǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ȦȦŖśǯ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǱȱȬŘŖŖŚȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦȦśȦśŗŜŚǯ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǭȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴǰȱǱȱȱ¢ǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯȬ¢ǯȦȦ ȬȬ¢ȬȬǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱȱǯȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŗȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦƖŘŖȦŘŖŗŗȬŖŞȬŗŖȬęȬ-‐‑ tAnnouncementsSumm.pdf ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŗǱȱȱȱȱ 2035ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ ŗŗȦȦŖřŞřǻŘŖŗŗǼǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱęȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦŗŗȦŘŖŖşǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ǳȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǻȱŗŘȦŗŚȦŗŗǼȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ¢¡Ȧ¡ǯǵƽȏǛŘȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱ-‐‑ ǼǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ-‐‑ ȦȦȦǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¡Ǳȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢¡Ȧ¡ǯ ǵƽȏȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱřǯȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŞȬŘŖŗŖǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦȏřǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȯȱ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏȦȏȦ¢ȏȦȦ ¡ǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱŗǯŗřǯǯȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȬȬȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǯ ȦȦ¢-‐‑ Ȧ¢ǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱŘŖŗŘȱȱ¢ȱǱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȏǯǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǯȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦȦǵƽ ǯȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ ȦȦȦȦǯǵęƽȏȦȏȦȏȏǯȱ Energy Star Program. 2011. Ǳȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱ. ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦ-‐‑ ȦȦȏȦ ǯȱ ȱǻȱ ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯĢ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦŘŖŖşȦȱ ȱǻȱ ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȂȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦǯǵƽȱ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧǯ¡ǵƽşŖŜŚ ȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗȱǲȱȱ¢ȱ Ǽǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱŚŝȱǻŘǼǱȱŘşǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŖşȦȦȏŚŝȏŘşǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦŖŜŖśŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȬȬȱ¢ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ŗǯǯ-‐‑ ¢ǯȦȦȦŚŖŜŜśǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱĴǰȱřřǰȱŗŝŝŖřǲȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜŖŘŜŜśŘ ǰȱǯȱȃȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱ ȱȄǰȱȱȱ , Septem-‐‑ ȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯę ǯȦ ȦȦŘŘŖŚşşȦŚȬȬȬȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȬȬ Ȭ ěǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŘśȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ ȦȦŜřŜȏȏŘŖŖŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȂȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦęȦȦęȦȏǯȱȱ 83 84 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȏŗŗǯŖŗǯŘŝǯ £¢ȬǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȬǰȱǯȱȂȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȏȏȏǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřŜȱǻşǼǱȱřŘśŘȬřŘŜśǯȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦ ŖřŖŗŚŘŗśŖŞŖŖŘřŗŖȱ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦśŘřŜŖǯȱ Long, P. and A. Naar. 2011. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǱȱȱęȱ. Center ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱȱȱǯȱǯȱŗȬř ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯ ĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦȦȦȬŗŚŝŗǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ǯǯȦ-‐‑ ȦȦȏȏȏǯ ȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱĜȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱ Energy. ¢ ǱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ŖŚȦřŚşŗŜǯȱ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ ȏȏȏȬǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱŘŖƖȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖǱȱȱ ȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯŘŖ ǯȦŘŖȏ ȏ¢ȏȏŖŞǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱŘŖŖşȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȏ¢ȦȏȏȦȦŚŞŘŗŘǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢Ǽǯȱȃǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȄǰȱȱ ǰȱȱŗǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ ȦŘŖŗŖȦŞŗŝǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȱ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ mentǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦęȦŘŖŗŖƖŘŖǯ ȱǭȱȱȱǯȱȃȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱĚȄǰȱ ȱǭȱǰȱȱŜǰȱ 2011. Nuclear Energy Institute. 2011. ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ¢Ȧě¢ȦȦ ¢Ȧȱ ĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŘȬȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ¢ǯȦȦ ǯ¡ǵƽŘŖśŜȱ ȱǻȱȱ¢ȱěȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱŘǯȱȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ and ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ-‐‑ ǯȦȏ ǯǵȏƽŜş Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦŚȬŝȦęȬȦŚȬ ŝȬęȬǯ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦ¢ŗŖȦŚśŞŞşǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ. ȱ ǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ŗŗȦśŘřŜŖǯ ȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯŗǯȦȦ ǯ¡ȱ Southern Company. 2012. ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ Ȧǯȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱȃȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȄǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱŗŚǰȱŘŖŗŗǯ ȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¡ǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ ȏǯ ǯȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ǯȱ¡ǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦ Ȧȏǯ ǯȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ ȏǯ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦĴȦȦȦȦęǯ ȱǯȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ ȦȦȬȦǯǛȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯȦȦǯǯȱ ȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ¢ȦȦŚȬśȦęȬȦŚȬśȬęȬǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ 85 Chapter 5 Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA LEAD AUTHOR Dale Quattrochi (dale.quattrochi@nasa.gov; NASA, Earth Science Office, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Kirstin Dow (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) Jeff Gaffney (Chair, Department of Chemistry, University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Little Rock, Arkansas) Pat Long (Director, Center for Sustainable Tourism, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina) Steve McNulty (US Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Marshall Shepherd (Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Scott Shuford (Development Services Department, City of Fayetteville, North Carolina) Brian Stone (School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia) 86 Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱĚ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęǯȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱĜǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ǰȱǼǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Key Findings f ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǼǲȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱǰȱȱĚǰȱȱȬ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ¢ǰȱ migration, the coastal environment, and even have implications on national security. f Development of adaptation plans to maintain built environment infrastructure ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ and to ensure built environment sustainability. f ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ¢Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ able and resilient. f ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ 5.1 Background ȱȱǰȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ transformed or imprinted non-‐‑natural features across the landscape. The impact of ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ that singly could be minor, but together could have a synergistic set of impacts that are ęǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ have a collective impact on the overall urban ecosystems for cities in the region. An ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱǰȱǻŘǼȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ 87 88 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȬȱ-‐‑ ǼǲȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǰȱȱǼǲȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǼǲȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȦǼǲȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ change may impact the built environment via alteration of inputs and outputs to the ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ throughout the various chapters in this report. Moreover, a forthcoming National Cli-‐‑ ȱȱǻǼȱȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱřǰȱȱřǯŜǼǯȱ This section of the technical report focuses on the potential impacts that a changing ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱȱȱȱěǲȱǲȱȱĚǲȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱǲȱǲȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǲȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱęȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȦȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗřǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ods for adapting to, or mitigating, these impacts. Establishment of publically accessible ǰȱǰȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ǰȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱ-‐‑ governmental entitites, and the interested general public. This information must also be ¢ȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ print and broadcast media. Additionally, there is an emerging industry of communica-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ use relational databases similar to climate indicators that could be used to reach broad ǰȱȱȱ ȱȬŗŘȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȄȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ical parameters that govern the land-‐‑atmosphere interface over urban areas. In turn, this may have broader impacts on atmospheric phenomena and regional interactions Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱǻȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǲȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǼȱěǲȱȱǻřǼȱ changes in precipitation, including increases or decreases in amount or intensity. ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ focused on the Atlanta, GA, metropolitan area only because several contributors to this ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȦȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱǱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ, and Climate Change and ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǯ 5.2 Air Quality ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻŗǼȱěȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǲȱǻŘǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱǻřǼȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱǻŚǼȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŗşşśǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ£ȱǻ3Ǽǰȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱǻ¡ǼȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǻȱśǯŗǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ3ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ3 levels ¢¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ several months. ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ pollution. ȱ ȱȱ ȱŘǯśȱȱŗŖȱȱǻΐǼ are referred 89 90 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȃǯȄȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱStudies il-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ environments by Ƹ0.1-‐‑1 µμg m-‐‑3ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ Figure 5.1 Ozone formation in the urban atmosphere (Quattrochi et al. 2006). 5.3 The Urban Heat Island Effect ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŞŗǼǯȱȱȱ ęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱě-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱŘǚȱȱřǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŗşŞŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ ȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA ŗşŞŗǰȱȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ to the land and atmosphere interactions that occur over cities. These include surface geometry, surface thermal properties, surface conditions, anthropogenic heat, and the ȱȱěȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǻȱŗşŝřǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǻěȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱŗřȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşśŖȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖǯřŗǚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖǯŗŘǚȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ěȱȱĴȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱěȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱ due primarily to increased heat trapped in the land-‐‑atmosphere boundary layer by ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ of gases are a function of increased energy use, such as air conditioning and motor ȱĜȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȮȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ 91 92 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ combinations of tree planting and vegetative cover, albedo enhancement, and reduc-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗǚȱȱȱ ȱŜǚȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ¢ȱȱǯŘŖŖşǰȱ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱĚ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱǰȱȱ direct cooling of the ambient air through vegetation and albedo enhancement carries ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȬȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǰȱǰȱȱĵȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ tion by as much as 10%, suggesting the potential for emission reductions and surface ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ 5.4 Effects on Precipitation ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǰȱȱȃȱȱěȄȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ literature is fairly conclusive on urban land cover and pollution altering components of ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěǯȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ discussed in Ashley et al. 2012, Shepherd et al. 2011, Niyogi et al. 2011, Shepherd et al. ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ high-‐‑resolution radar to study precipitation in the cities and adjacent control regions ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȬ¢ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱ-‐‑ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱśǯŘȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ of aerosols in the precipitation processes. Aerosols may enhance or suppress convec-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA Figure 5.2 Composite radar analysis for Atlanta, GA: (a) The total number of days t 40 dBZ and (b) the total number of 5-minute occurrences t 40 dBZ for each 2-km grid cell versus distance from city center in the Atlanta domain for the 10-year, June through August. National Land Cover Database urban delineated cells are colored red/grey, whereas nonurban cells are blue/black. (Ashley et al. 2012). ȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱ Ěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěǱȱǻŗǼȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǻŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǻřǼȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǻŚǼȱȬ¢ȱ-‐‑ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱěǰȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ lems in climatology, meteorology, and hydrology. Precipitation issues in a built, urban 93 94 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Urban Flooding ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱśǯřǼǯȱȱȱĚȱȱ been noted in several global regions including SE cities such as Atlanta and Nashville. ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱȬȱĚȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱŘŖŖşȱǻȱśǯŚǼȱȱȱȬȱ¢Ȭ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱǯȱ The conversion of natural landscapes to built, urban environments changes vari-‐‑ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱęǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĚǰȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ response in Atlanta in a similar manner observed in other urban locations. Reynolds et ǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ¢Ȭȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȦȱ¢Ǽȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ-‐‑ scapes, population density, and climate predictions in order for mitigation and adapta-‐‑ tion plans to be successful. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĚ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ phological parameters are represented in such models using various technologies, such Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA Figure 5.3 Difference (2025 Current Land Cover) in simulated rainfall amount for a typical case day in Houston, Texas. Black outline represents 2025 urban land cover. Rainfall amounts illustrated in the image correspond to the bar graph on the right hand side of the figure (Shepherd et al. 2010a). Figure 5.4 Trends in the extreme precipitation index for the southeastern USA. Red dotted line is 1 day, 1 in 5-year event. Blue line is 5-day, 1 in 5-year event Kunkel et al. 2013). 95 96 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES as remote sensing, aerial photography, high-‐‑resolution optical imagery, and LIDAR. ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ uncertainties related to input precipitation data, calibration errors, assumptions and £ǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ 5.5 Effects on the Wild Land-Urban Interface (WUI) ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tation and mitigation strategies, but the implementation of these plans could be sig-‐‑ ę¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ-‐‑ eral circulation models universally project increasing air temperature and increases or ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŚŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȄȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱĚ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱǻȱŗşşşǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱĴǰȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱęǯȱȱȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ£ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯ ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ 5.6 Vulnerability and Risks to Tourism ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱĴǰȱ-‐‑ ment, events, travel trade, tourism services, and adventure and outdoor recreation. In ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŝśŞǯŝȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ǰȱǞŗŞŞǯŚȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱŝǯŚȱȱǰȱǞŗŗŝǯŜȱȱ ȱȬȱ¡ȱǰȱȱǞřŗǯŝȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ travelers paid a total of $31.3 billion to domestic air carriers on international passenger ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŗřŚǯŚȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǞŗŞŗȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǞŘŞǯŜȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱŘǯŖŜȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǞŚŞȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĚǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻĴȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱĚǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȯȱȱȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ¡ȱǻŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ tourism operators in many destinations. Many tourism activities are heavily dependent 97 98 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ£ǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Vacation and Second Homes ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ found in coastal or mountain environments that are highly desirable places to live and ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗǯŚȱ ȱȱȱȱȃǰȱȱȱȱȄȱ¢ȱȱȱ ŗŗȬȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŚƖȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱconstruction and related services, enhanced retail trade, real estate services, and leisure and hospitality ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŝŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŗŘȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǞŗŘȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱĚǲȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǲȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǲȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱěȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŘŚǯřȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱřŚƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŖśȬŘŖŖŜǼǯ ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ search is needed to investigate adaptation and mitigation strategies for the tourism in-‐‑ dustry. Research might include developing databases for the tourism industry to assess ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǲȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱǲȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ 5.7 Impacts on Energy, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Vulnerability ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱşŖǚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱǻȱȱȱȱę£ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱ ȱŗşŝŗȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱ ȱŘŖŚŗȱȱŘŖŝŖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŚŚƖȱȱŚşƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱşŝƖȱȱŘřŚƖȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱşśǚȱȱŗřŘƖȱȱśŝśƖȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŖŖǚȱ ȱǻȱŘǯŘȱȱȱŘǼǯ Tȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŘƖȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱşŞƖȱȱȱ overall have means to cool their home including central and room air conditioning, and ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗśŖȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱǰȱȱŚƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱśǯŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŗǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱśǯŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŜŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱ ŘǯŗŘǰȱȱŘǼǯȱ 99 100 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Table 5.1 Households in the Southeastern United States Eligible for Energy Assistance. Ȭȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǱȱ¡ȱǱȱ ȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŝśȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ1,2 Ȭȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻǼȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖş LIHEAP eligible households by vulnerability category Total number of LIHEAP eligible house-‐‑ holds 3,4 At least one person 60+ At Least one At least one child less than person with a disability 5 6 years old LIHEAP eligible households with no vulnerable members Alabama ŝřŖǰŞşŞ ŘŝŖǰŜŜş ŗŘŜǰşşŘ ŗŖŝǰşŗŗ ŘŝŖǰŞśŘ ŚŖşǰşŘŜ ŗśŘǰśŝś ŞŖǰŞŘŘ śşǰŘŘś ŗŚŗǰśŗś ŘǰśŜŘǰşŝŗ ŗǰŖşşǰŚŝŚ ŚŗśǰŘŞŚ ŘŖşǰŗŝŝ şśŗǰŝŚś Georgia ŗǰřŖŞǰŖşŖ ŚŘŘǰŜŚŚ ŘŝŝǰŞśř ŗřŘǰŝŖş śŚŘǰŚŚŖ ¢ ŜŝśǰşřŘ ŘŚŞǰŖřř ŗŘśǰŘśŜ ŗŘŗǰŜŚŘ ŘŘŝǰŖŜŞ Louisiana ŜŚşǰřŞś ŘřŚǰŘśŚ ŗŘŘǰŖśŜ ŞŚǰŖŚŜ ŘŚŝǰŞřŞ Mississippi ŚřŝǰŘŘş ŗŜŖǰřŚŘ ŞśǰŜŚŚ ŜşǰŝřŖ ŗśřǰŘŚŖ Missouri ŞřşǰŚśř řŗŖǰŜŗŝ ŗśŘǰşřŝ 100,394 řŗřǰśŝś North Carolina 1,304,413 ŚŜŗǰŘŚŞ ŘśřǰŗŘŖ ŗřŜǰŚřŚ śŗřǰŝŘŝ South Carolina ŜŘşǰŝŘŘ ŘřŚǰŞŞŘ ŗŗŜǰŝŗř ŝŖǰŝŖŜ ŘŚŖǰŞşŖ Tennessee 914,211 řřşǰŜŝř ŗŜŞǰşŞŜ ŗŗŝǰŘŞŞ 341,212 ŗǰŖŘśǰŖŝŞ řŝŞǰŘşŝ ŗŞŜǰşŗŖ şŞǰśŝŚ ŚŖŜǰşŝŚ SE states total ŗŗǰŚŞŝǰřŖŞ ŚǰřŗŘǰŝŖŞ ŘǰŗŗŘǰśŝř ŗǰřŖŝǰŞřŜ ŚǰřśŗǰŖŝŜ All States ŚŗǰŝŜŝǰřŝŖ ŗśǰřŝşǰśŘŘ ŝǰşşŖǰşŖś ŚǰŗŞŝǰŚŗŜ ŗŜǰŗśśǰśŖś ŘŝǯśƖ ŘŞǯŖƖ ŘŜǯŚƖ 31.2% ŘŜǯşƖ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȄȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ 1 ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱȱǯ 2 ȱȱȱȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȃȱǰȄȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśŖƖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ lines. 3 ȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗřǰŗŖŚǰŖŝŚǯ 4 A household can be counted under more than one vulnerability category. ś ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖşȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗśȱȱŜŚȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱŗşȱȱŜŗȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 5.8 Impacts on National Security ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱĴȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ security issues that arise in a stressed climate system. These security issues include, for ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tinue to monitor the implications, study climate changes carefully, and plan mitigation and adaptation strategies. 5.9 Impacts on Urban Migration ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĴȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to the Sunbelt during the past several decades as many people, particularly retirees, ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗşŝŜǰȱȱŗşŞŖǼǯȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ cases migration may be due to physical conditions such as property inundation due to Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ǰȱǰȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ plants, transmission lines, pump stations, and other infrastructure that are located in ȱȱȱĚǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȯȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯ 101 102 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱŚŜǰŖŖŖȱŶȱǻŗŝǰŝŜŖȱ2Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗǯśȱǯȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚǰŝşśǰŖŖŖȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱŘŖŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱĚȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǯȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱ 5.10 Impacts on Coastal Environments ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ possible impacts climate change could have on coastal cities in the region. These im-‐‑ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǼǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱŘǰȱȱŘǯřǯŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǰȱȱ ŘǯřǯŞǼǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱřǰȱŚǰȱ ŜǰȱȱŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱǱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱřǰȱȱřǯŝǼǯ 5.11 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ and regional, direct and indirect and could potentially range from mild to severe. These ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǲȱȱ¡-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱ¢¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ and business infrastructure, land use, and population. Moreover, the built environ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱǼȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǼȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱĚǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cline in tourism, vulnerability of energy supplies, and challenges to built infrastructure ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Such actions could create opportunities for reduced energy consumption, reduced ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱǼȱȱȱ ȱěǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱȱǯȱ The discussions should embrace many aspects of the issues including the long-‐‑term ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ for implementation 5.12 References ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ strategies. ¢ȱ¢ȱřřȱǻŜǼǱȱŝŘŗȬŝśŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĵǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŚȱǻśǼǱȱřşŗȬŚŖŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱĵǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŝŖȱǻřǼǱȱŘşśȬřŗŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱŗŗřȱǻŘǼǱȱŚŞŗȬŚşŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ turbance from herbivores and pathogens. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜŘȱǻřǼǱȱŘŜřȬŘŞŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱ. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱǰȱǰȱşŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¡ǯȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱǰȱȱȱ and climate change. 319. Ĵȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ tional Academies Press. 103 104 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ¢ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ęȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯ ȦȦȬȦȏȏȏȏŗŘǯŗřǯŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻřǼǱȱřŜŗȬřŜřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱǰȱ ȱȱǱȱȱ science and practice. Publication of the Center for Sustainable Tourism, Division of Research ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ Climate change and forest disturbances. ȱśŗȱǻşǼǱȱŝŘřȬŝřŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱĜȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦśśŘŝŜŖǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ǼǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦȦȦȦȦȦȦ-‐‑ man%20Paper.pdf ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦ ǯǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱřŗǱȱŘŖȬŚŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱŗşşŘȮŘŖŖŗȱȱȱȱęȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȬȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦŘŖŖŞȦŗřŝşȦȦ ŘŖŖŞȬŗřŝşǯǯȱ ȱǯǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱ ȱȯȱȱȱȱ¡¢ǯȱȱȱŗǱȱřŘŗȬřŚşǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱǻ¢ǼǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ¢ȬȦȬȬǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŘŝȬŘřŝǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦŘŖŖśȦŖşŗŘȦŖŗŖŗȬǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȦ-‐‑ ȱǼǯȱȱȱȱŗȱǻȱȱȱřǼǱȱŘŚŝȬŘŝŚǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦŗŞŝŞŖŘşŜŗŖŖŖŖŗŝŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŘŞǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦŖşŖŖŜŖǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ spatial variability in the urban heat island. ȱȱȱ¢ȱşśȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱřşŝȬŚŖŜǯ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱ 144 ǻŗȬřǼǱȱŗşşȬŘŗşǯȱ ěǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗŗŚśŖŚȬśŗřǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱŚřȱǻŗǼǱȱśŗȬŜřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȮ-‐‑ ȱŗŗřǰȱŘŚşŖǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞŖŗŖŘŝŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱŗŞ ǻŗŖǼǱȱŗśśŗȬŗśŜśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȬȬȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȬȱȱȬ-‐‑ tioning. ȱ¢ȱŞřȱǻŜǼǱȱŜŚşȬŜŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǰȱŘŖŗřǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱȱŘǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗŚŘȬŘǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŗşŞŗǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦěȦȦ ȏŘŖŗŗȏęǯǼ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȂȱȱ¡ȱǯȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦŘŖŖşȦŗŗȦŖŘȦ¡ȬȬ Ȭ¢ȬȬȬ¡Ȭǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ change and pollution and associated aerosols. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ŗŗȱǻřǼǱȱŞŝŚŝȬŞŝŝŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯ 2009. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ In ȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱŜŖŝȬŜřřǯȱǱȱȱ Ƹȱȱǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Area. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŘǼǱȱŗşşȬŘŗŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱŞŝȱǻŘŚǼǱȱŘřřȬŘŚŚǯ £ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱǱȱŘŖŗŖǱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŖȦȦŘŖŗŖȬŖŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ǱȱęȱȱȂȱȱȱ loads under a changing climate. ȱȱŗśŞȱǻŜǼǱȱŘŖśřȬŘŖśŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ 21st century. ȱřŖśȱǻśŜŞŜǼǱȱşşŚȬşşŝǯ 105 106 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ southern California. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱşȱǻŗŗǼǱȱřŝŚśȬřŝśŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ Ǳȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŚȱǻŗǼǱȱśȬŗŖǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦ ȦǵƸǭ ƽǯȦŗŚǭƽŜǭŞƽǭƽ ȱǻȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǰȱȂȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ĴǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰǯȱ ȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ Ǳȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱŗǰȱȱȱ ĴǱȦȦ¡ǯǯȦŗŖǯŗŝŞŝȦŖŗŗŝŜŜŚŞŞŘŖŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ęȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ the Indianapolis urban region. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻśǼǱȱŗŗŘşȬŗŗŚŚǯ ȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǰȱȱśǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱŘŞȬŘşǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ĚȱĚȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢¢ȱŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŞŞȬŗŖŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŝřǯȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŝȱŝŜşȬŝŝşǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŝǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱǱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȬǰȱǯȱ¤ǰȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱřřȱǻŘŚȬŘśǼǱȱřşŗşȬřşřŖǯ ȱȱŘŖŖśȮŘŖŖŜǯȱŘŖŖśȮŘŖŖŜȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȮȱ·ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢-‐‑ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŚŗşȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǭȱ ¢ȱŚŜǰȱŜşŜȮŝŖřǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ Media, LLC. ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴǵȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŝȱǻřǼǱȱşŜśȬşŝśǯ Ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱęȱ on urban hydrologic response. In ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰ ȱŗŜǰȱed. ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱşşȬŗŘŘǯȱǰȱȱǱȱ ȱ ǻȱ ¢ȱǼǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱǱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱǵȱȱřŘŗȱǻśŞşŚǼǱȱŗřŖşȬŗřŗřǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȃȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Development Authority. £ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ecosystems. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ103 ǻřśǼǱȱŗřŗŗŜȬŗřŗŘŖǯ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA Ĵǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ-‐‑ ǯȦȦȦęȦȦ ř ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱ variability over the last millennium, and the potential for future hydroclimate change. -‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŗşǼǱȱśŖŘŗȬśŖŚśǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȬȦ ȬȬȬȬȬȬȬǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǱȱȱȱȱřŝȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŞŚȬřŖŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ£Ǳȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ cipitation, and lightning. In ȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱ ŗȬŘŝǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ Soil Science Society of America. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻŝǼǱȱŞŜŗȬŞŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ American Planning Association. ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ polluted rural and remote environments. ȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŖŖǱȱŗŗǰȱŚşŝȬŗŗǰȱśŖŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱřŖǱȱŘŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¤ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ and precipitation in Europe. ȱȱ¢ȱȮȱŗŗŜǰȱŖŘŘŗŘǲȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŗŚŜŖřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱǱȱŗşśŗȬŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŝȱǻŗřǼǱȱŗŞŖŗȬŗŞŖŝǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ment ŞŜǱȱŜŞŞȮŜşŞǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȏ ȏȏƖŘŖȏ Stone.pdf ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱ ȱȱŗŗŞȱ ǻŗŖǼǱȱŗŚŘśȬŗŚŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŚŚŗȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŝŜǯȱȱȱǱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱŜŜȱǻřǼǱȱřŗŚȬřřŖǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ heat. ¢ȱȱȱŘśȱǻŘǼǱȱşşȬŗŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŗŞȱǻřǼǱȱŘŖśȬŘŘŞǯ ȱǯȱĴȱǱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǵȱȱȱȱŗŜǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŗŝŖŚřŚŜŘ 107 108 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦ Ȭ Ȧ ȦȬ Ȭ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ £ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱǱȱȱȱ atmospheric climate change. In ȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĜȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ Ȧǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǯǯǱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȮȱǯȱȱęȱȯ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦŘŖŗŖǯǯȦŘŖŗŖȦȦǯȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŗŗŖŖȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱŚśŖǯȱǰȱȱŘŖŖŖśȮřşřřŚǯ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯȦȦǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱřȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ, ȱǯȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǭ Sons, ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱ ĴȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱŗŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȮȱǯȱȱGen-‐‑ ȱȱȱȬśřǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ Southern Research Station. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ abundance relationship for urban heat island studies. ȱȱȱȱŞşȱǻŚǼǱȱ ŚŜŝȬŚŞřǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱȱŗŖ ǻĴǱȦȦǯ ǯȦȦȦřŚŖŘřŘȮŗŘŖśřřŖŜśŜŘŝŘȦ-‐‑ ǯǼ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ȬǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǱȱȱȱȬęǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱřśȱǻśǼǱȱśŗŝȬśŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŘŖŗŘȬŘŖŘşǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ potential mitigation strategies. ȱ £ȱśŘȱǻřǼǱȱŜřşȬŜŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱęȱĴǵȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŖŘǱȱśŚȮŜřǯ Chapter 6 Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA AUTHORS Frederick Bloetscher (h2o_man@bellsouth.net; Florida Atlantic University) Leonard Berry (Florida Atlantic University) Kevin Moody (United States Federal Highway Administration) Nicole Hernandez Hammer (Florida Center for Environmental Studies, Florida Atlantic University) 109 110 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Key Findings ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ǳ f ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ f Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ f ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱę-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǞŘȱȱȱǞřȱȱȱ Ȭǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ engineering responses that might protect transportation infrastructure, may increase ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǯ 6.1 Evaluation of Southeast Transportation Systems ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ and operations to provide mobility and access that is safe, reliable, and sustainable. The ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǱȱǻŗǼȱȱǲȱǻŘǼȱȱȱǲȱǻřǼȱ¢ȱǲȱ ǻŚǼȱȱǲȱȱǻśǼȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ability challenge encompasses the full range of natural, built, and sociocultural envi-‐‑ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȃȄȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ǳ • ȃ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ • ȱěǰȱȱ¢ȱȱĜ¢ǰȱěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǲȱȱ • ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȬ ȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȄȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ address interconnectivity and vulnerabilities that may lead to failures in policy direc-‐‑ tion and cooperative infrastructure planning. To create leadership in this regard, the federal government created the Interagency Partnership for Sustainable Communities to reinforce the importance of environmental, economic, and social sustainability. In ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ transportation, and environmental policies and investments to increase transportation ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ geographic regions, including those of built and natural environments. It is at the local ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ An important component to a sustainable transportation is economic competitive-‐‑ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ shipped into, out of, or through the Southeast. In general, shipping costs range from $2 ȱȱȱȱǰȱǞŖǯŗȱȱȱȱǰȱǞŖǯŖŗȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǞŖǯŖŖśȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȬȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŘŖŗřǼǯ 6.2 Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱęȱȱęȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŜǯŗȱȱȱęȱĚ ȱ chart used as a basis for that evaluation. ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ 111 112 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 6.1 Analysis tool (Bloetscher 2012). ȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǿ -‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ methodology for assessing and mitigating the potential impacts of SLR and storm im-‐‑ pacts on transportation infrastructure to assist transportation planning. The approach ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼ the evaluation of current and projected SLR ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱǰȱǻŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ęȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşȯȱȱŜǯŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ 6.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Systems ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA Figure 6.2 Prediction of Sea Level Rise, accounting for time and rise. ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĜȱĚ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ inundation of a critical access could cause transportation connectivity problems by ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱ of certain types of transportation. Changes in hydrology can dramatically increase the ȱȱ ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱ ȱȱ outline the challenges facing each transportation sector in the Southeast. 113 114 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Marine and Inland Ports. The SE supports an array of marine and inland shipping ǯȱȱŜǯŗȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȯ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȯȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ intermodal transportation hubs. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ even the long-‐‑term sustainability of some marine ports. In addition, SLR has a cumula-‐‑ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ up to 20 years to develop plans and construct improvements. ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȬȱǰȱȱȃȬ¡Ȅȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¡Ȭ£ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȬ¡ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬ¡ȱ ǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱǞŗǯŘȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŚǯŚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ protected environments. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 115 Table 6.1 Waterborne Foreign Trade Volume Rankings for SE Customs Districts in 2011. Rank Port Satellites 1 Port of South Louisiana, LA ȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ 3 ȱǯȱ ǰȱǲȱȱǰȱǲȱǰȱ 10 ǰȱ ȱ 13 ǰȱ St Petersburg, Manatee ŗŝ Mobile, AL 19 Pascagoula, MS ¡ǰȱ 21 ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ Řś ǰȱ ŘŞ Memphis, TN 29 Savannah, GA 30 Charleston, SC 34 ȱǰȱ řŞ Louisville, KY 39 ǰȱ 42 ǰȱ 43 Morehead City, NC 44 Nashville, TN Śŝ Ĵǰȱ ŚŞ Greenville, MS 49 Guntersville, AL śŖ ǰȱ śŗ ǰȱ śř ǰȱ śŜ Ponce, PR ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ Waterways. ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ hydraulic changes, sedimentation, sea level change, storm surge, and tropical storms. ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŗŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ¢ǯ Railroads. ȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 116 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES tended to construct railroads on high ground. As a result, railroads may be less sub-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱŜǯŘȱȱȱȱŗȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŜǯřȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ railroads. Conversely, of great concern is that the railroads built 100-‐‑plus years ago did ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŜǯŚȱȱŜǯśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ Table 6.2 Class 1 Freight Railroads in the Southeast USA. Railroad Status ȱę ǲȱȱ ȱ ǲȱǲȱǲȱǲȱǲȱ ǲȱ¢ǲȱȱǲȱȱǲȱ Kansas City Southern ǲȱǲȱǲȱȱ ǲȱǲȱǲȱǲȱǲȱ ǲȱ¢ǲȱȱǲȱȱǲȱ Canadian National ǲȱǲȱǲȱ ǲȱǲȱǲȱǲȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȱȬȬȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱŗŝȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱŞȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȦ ¢ ȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱ ȱŗŖȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱřŘȱȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖǼȱȱśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱŚǯŖŝȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŚȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA Figure 6.3 Source: wikipedia.com, 2012. ȱǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱŜśȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǻȱȱȱȱŗşŞŞǽŞŞǾǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ are on higher ground than surrounding areas, but long-‐‑term base failure due to rising ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŜǯŜȱȱŜǯŝǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŜǯŞǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱ including sea level rise. Roadways.ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ 117 118 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 6.4 Cross sectional diagram showing the current base condition for railroads relative to the water table. Figure 6.5 Future railroad condition showing that rising ground water level (dotted line) nearly reaches the gravel base, which can result in base deterioration and failure. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȬ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ śȱȱŞŞǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ failure. In addition, because soil storage capacity is diminished, the potential for fre-‐‑ ȱĚȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱŜǯşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA Figure 6.6 Airport runways are generally elevated. Note that water table is below drainage requirements (dotted line). Figure 6.7 Sea level rise will threaten runways, but because runways are designed with more elevation than roadways, runways will not be affected by inundation as early as are roadways or railroads. Note that water table is still below drainage requirements (dotted line). ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱŜǯŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱśŖŖȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ during heavy rainfall events. 119 120 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 6.8 Illustration of Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International Airport. LiDAR map shows runways are currently above SLR projections; however drainage areas are not above SLR projections. Dark blue areas are would be inundated with 1 ft of sea level rise (SLR) and medium blue areas would be inundated with 3 ft of SLR. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ęȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ¡ęȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱ ȱǻȱȱŜǯŗŗǼȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ and be directed to a pump station. In these situations, the pump stations might be 2000 ȱǯȱȬ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA Figure 6.9 Dania Beach Overlay Map Using High Resolution LiDAR Data (7” in vertical accuracy). ǰȱȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǞŗȱȱȱȬȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ 121 122 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 6.10 Wellpoints. ¡ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱŜǯŗŘǼǯȱȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱěǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǞŗśŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱŘŚȬȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱŘŚȬȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Figure 6.11 Infiltration Gallery Concept.. Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA Figure 6.12 Injection Well Concept. ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱǱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱśŖȬȱȱŗŖŖȬ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱśȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ǯ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŗȱȱ ȱŜȱȱȱŞȱȱǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚǯȱěȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȬ ¢ȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȬȬ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǞŗȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȬ ¢ǰȱȱ¡ȱęǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǞśŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ¢ǰȱ 123 124 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭěǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǞŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ displaced residents go is uncertain although migration and displacement of residents ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ construction. ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŞśŖȱȱǞŗŜŖŖȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǞŘśȱȱǞŘŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱŘśŖȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ 6.4 Conclusions ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ȬȬ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ damage is temporal in nature as opposed to the permanent threat of sea level rise. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȯȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ operating and repair costs, and the possibility of catastrophic, cascading failures. If the Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱŘŖȱȱśŖȱ¢ǰȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱĜȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱǲȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱ elements of this overall transportation system are particularly vulnerable to climate-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ storm surge, and sediment dynamics need to be considered. Engineering options are already available for strengthening and protecting trans-‐‑ portation facilities such as bridges, ports, and railroads from coastal storms and Ěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱ implementation of technologies that monitor major transportation facilities and infra-‐‑ structure, and the development, update and re-‐‑evaluation of current design standards, ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ĴȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǱȱ • Planning time frames • ȱȱ • Integrated climate data and projections • ȱ¢ȱȱ • Region-‐‑based analysis • Interdisciplinary research • ęȱȱȱȱȱ • ęȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱ • ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱǰȱȬȱȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱȬ£ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱĴȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱěȱȱoperational 125 126 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Ĝ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ of transportationȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱĜȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ǰȱ-‐‑ ę¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱę¢ȱěȱĜȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ served by these transportation systems. Transit and other modes of transportation that are not single-‐‑occupant vehicle mode may become more prudent to reduce congestion. Ĝȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ developed and implemented, including a detailed route signing system and emergency ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱǯ 6.5 References ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǱȱȱ management and adaptation in the face of climate change. ȱȱǰȱŚȱǱŗŖǯřřşŖȦ ŚŖ¡ŖŖŖ¡ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱ¢Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗŖŘǻŗŗǼǱȱřŜȬŚŜǰȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦęȦȦ ¡ǯǵƽŗŞŜŝŞş ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱśǻŗŗǼǱȱŗśŖŝȬŗśŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ £ȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱęȱȱ physical transportation infrastructure vulnerable to sea level rise. ȱȱ¢ǰȱśǻŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦŗŗŝşŘǰȱȱ ŘȦŘşȦŗŘǯ ȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦǯ ǵȏƽŜŚŖǭƽŖ ȱǻȱ ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱĴǱȦȦǯĢ ǯǯȦȦ-‐‑ ȦŗǯǰȱȱȱȱŗŗǰȱŘŖŗřǯ ȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȂȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦęȦ-‐‑ ȦȏȦȏȏȏȏǯǯȱ ȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǵȱ¢ȱȱĴǰȱřŝǰȱŖŝŝŖřǰȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŚŘşŚŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȂȱȱ Selling Light-‐‑Duty Models, ȱȱŗřȱǻŞǼǱŚşŗȬśŖŚǰȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ¡ǯ ȦȦȦȏȦŖŞ¡ǯǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȮȱȱ ȱ for meeting 21stȱ¢ȱǯȱȱǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ ǱȱȱǰȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦǯǵȏƽŗŘŝŞřǯ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗřȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱǰȱŘŖŗřǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȏȦ ȦȬȬ¡ȬȬȬȬȬȬȬ ȬȬȬřśŝşř ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȦȱŘŖŖŞ ǯȱŝŗȱȉȱǯȱŜǯ ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘşŖǱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜǰȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȬƖŘŖ Change%20and%20Transportation.pdf. ȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȮȱęȱ¢ȱǰȱȱŘřŗȬȬŗŖȬŖŖŘǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦȏ¢ŗǯǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦ ŗŖŖŘȦ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŗŖŜǻśŗǼǱȱ ŘŗśŘŝȮŘŗśřŘǰȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŗŖŜȦśŗȦŘŗśŘŝǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ ǯȦ Ȧȏȏȏȏȏ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦǯǵȏƽŜŚŖǭƽŖȱǼǯ 127 Chapter 7 Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA LEAD AUTHOR Senthold Asseng (sasseng@ufl.edu; University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Wendy-Lin Bartels (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Kenneth J. Boote (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Norman E. Breuer (University of Miami and University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Davide Cammarano (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Christine C. Fortuin (Environmental Protection Agency, Region 4, Washington, DC) Clyde W. Fraisse (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Carrie A. Furman (University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia) Gerrit Hoogenboom (Washington State University, Prosser, Washington) Keith T. Ingram (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) James W. Jones (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) David Letson (University of Miami, Miami, Florida) Brenda V. Ortiz (Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama) Mark Risse (University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Fredrick Royce (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Scott D. Shuford (City of Fayetteville, Fayetteville, NC) Daniel Solis (University of Miami, Miami, Florida) 128 Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ¢£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱǰȱ£ȱ Ȭęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ Key Findings Changes in precipitation extremes f ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ resources. f ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ as indirect damage through soil erosion, leaching of nutrients, and loss of future productivity. Changes in temperature extremes f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ such methods increase costs of production. f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ f ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ Changes in tropical storm strength f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¡ȱȱȱǯ 129 130 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES f ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǲȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǲȱȱȱȱǯ Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide f ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ¢-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ3ȱȱȱȱǰȱĴǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ 7.1 Agriculture in the Southeast USA ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ economy and communities. Seasonal and spatial variability of climate conditions, ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ rigation have led to the development of a diverse and intensive agricultural sector. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗřśȱȱǰȱ ȱȱŗŚǯşƖȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱěȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱŜŖƖȱǻȱŝşȱȱǼȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŗȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŗśǯŝƖȱȱȱȂȱȱȱŗřƖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱ ȱȱŞǯřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚǯśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĴǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱǲȱ¢ǲȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ States also produce rice, sugarcane, and small grains. The Appalachian States are the Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ĵȱȱ¢ȱǻȬȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ North Carolina also have urban shares of urban land use above the national average ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱǞśśȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŗŝƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱǰȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱĴȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ include fruits and vegetables, soybeans, greenhouse and nursery products, corn and ĴǯȱȱȱȱŜŜƖȱȱȱȂȱǰȱŘşƖȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŝƖȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱśŖƖȱȱȱǰȱřŝƖȱȱȱĴǰȱŜŘƖȱȱȱǰȱȱřřƖȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ A) B) 1 Dot = $20,000,000 0 100 iles United States Total $297,220,491,000 Figure 7.1 Maps show (a) shares of land use in the Southeast and (b) distribution of market value of agricultural products sold. (a) USDA Census (2007) and (b) Hatfield et al. (2011). 131 132 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Table 7.1 Regional Population and Agricultural Sales in the Southeast. Population śşǰŜŖŖǰŖŖŖ Rural ŗŜǰşŖŖǰŖŖŖ ȱ śŘŞǰŞŖŖ Annual Sales ȱǻȱǞǼ ŘśǯŜ ȱǻȱǞǼ 31.1 Total (Billion $) 56.7 ǱȱȬȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱŗşŞśǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱŗşŞśȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŞƖȱǻŝȱȱǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŚȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱřŜƖȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŞŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ ŘřȱȱȱǻŗŝƖȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŗşŞŘȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ conserve vegetative cover and to store soil carbon through integration of crop, pasture, ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱŘŖŗŘȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŗȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǞśŖŖȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱěȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŘȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȬȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱřşƖǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱŞŖƖȱȱȱȱǻȬȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡£ȱȱȱ£ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ 7.2 Climate Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and change. Increasing tempera-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ2 ȱěȱȱ production through various physiological mechanisms. In combination, these factors ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȬȱȱęȱǯȱ Adverse impacts of climate change on other economic sectors may increase the ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǞŗŗȱȱ ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ Potential Impact of Rainfall Variability and Change ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ 133 134 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ Rainfall distribution also plays an important role for determining crop yields. Rain-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬęȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝşǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝşǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȬȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯřǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱ critical are changes in rainfall intensity and the distribution of small versus large rain-‐‑ ȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱǻȱȱ£ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯřǯŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ es in rainfall on forage production have not been as thoroughly researched as those for ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ Potential Impact of Temperature Change ȱěȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŗşşŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ£ȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱ¢£ȱȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱŗŘśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱśŚŘȱȱȱŘŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŝŗȱȱŘŖŖŖǰȱŝŞƖȱȱȱęǰȱĚ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ£ȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ǯȱ -‐‑ ǰȱ¡¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻȱ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱ ȱşoC and above 31oȱȱȱǻȱĚ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱ ǰȱȱěȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȃȄȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱȱ£ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ carrying out the C4 photosynthesis process have higher optimum temperatures for ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱǼȱȱȱ£ȱȱ řȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŗşşŚǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱǰȱǰȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯȱȱȱȱ ǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşŞŗǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱǲȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşŞŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ£ȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ increase in temperature. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǻȱŗşşŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱ ȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŘǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱ¢£ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗśƖȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŗşşśǼȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘśoC mean daily temperature, ȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱǯ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǲȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ¢Ȭȱ 135 136 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES agriculture, this will directly limit plant growth, while in irrigated systems increased temperatures could result in higher irrigation demands in combination with increased losses through evaporation. However, if future temperature changes are similar to the changes in the last 50 years, where global minimum temperatures have gener-‐‑ ally increased twice as fast as maximum temperatures, resulting in a reduced diurnal temperature range (Folland et al. 2001), the impact of increasing temperatures on vapor ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ (Farquhar et al. 1978). In addition, higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations can partially compensate for the increased water demands due to higher temperatures, through lower stomatal conductance, which reduces transpiration (Kimball 2010). Reduced leaf transpiration as a consequence of higher CO2 will also increase leaf temperature with an increased chance of plant damage due to heat stress. Plants grown at higher atmospheric CO2 tend to have a higher leaf water potential, which results in reduced drought stress (Wall 2001). ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ tein content (Triboi et al. 2003, Zhao et al. 2008) and dough quality of wheat (Randall and Moss 1990; Wrigley et al. 1994). For some crops, night temperatures are critical for ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱĴ¢ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ(Izquierdo et al. 2002). Increasing temperatures could have profound impacts on livestock and poultry ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȬȱěȱǻ ȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ (Klinedinst et al. 1993). Dairy cows perform best under cool temperatures, with the ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱŚŴȱȱŘŚŴǯȱȱȱ relative humidity (>80%) heat stress in dairy cows can begin at temperatures as low as 23oǰȱȱȱȱȱȱřŚŴǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ tures by renovating barns to improve their cooling systems, but these costs would have ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱ statements can be made for swine production as the vast majority of the animals are ǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ but because these animals are moved quickly from production to processing, this is a ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Potential Impact of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Elevated CO2ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ2 concentration leading to increased net photosynthesis rates, and at the same time reduces stomatal conductance resulting in reduced transpiration and improved water ȱĜ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşŝŞǼǯȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ2 concentrations increase plant biomass production and yield (Drake et al. 1997, Garcia ȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱŗşŞśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱřȱȱȱě¢ȱȱȱ2 ȱȱŚȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱǻȱȱŝǯŘǼ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 137 Table 7.2 Examples of C3 and C4 Species. C3 Species C4 Species • ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ • Grain legumes such as soybean, peanuts, various beans and peas • ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ • ȱȱǻǰȱǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱ ęȱȱǻĴǼǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ species • £ǰȱǰȱ • ¢ȱ ȬȱȱȱǻȱǼ ȱȱ2ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱ śŖŖȱȱśśŖȱǰȱ¢ȱȱřȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŗśƖȱȱřŖƖȱǰȱ ȱŚ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱŗśƖȱȱŘśƖȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ęȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ2 concentrations increases photosynthesis from řŖƖȱȱśŖƖȱȱř ǰȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱřŖƖȱȱŚȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱ£ȱ2ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ¡ȱȱǻǼȱ¡ȱ ȱŖǯŖŝƖȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱśśŖȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱřȱȱŚȱȱȱȱ2ǯȱȱȱ ȱřȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŚŖƖǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŚȱ ¢ȱǻ -‐‑ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ information indicates forage yield responses of C3 versus C4 perennial forages to be ȱȱȱřȱȱŚȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ 2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱǻǼȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŚǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǼǯȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ2 is an increase in canopy tempera-‐‑ tures due to a reduction in stomatal conductance and therefore less evaporative cooling 138 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǻȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱřȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǰȱȱ ŗşşŚǰȱȱȱǯȱŗşşŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Potential Impact of Tornados, Hurricanes, and Sea Level Rise ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ Potential Combined Impact of Climate Change ǰȱǰȱȱ2 concentrations do not change independently but inter-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ change adaptation strategies so that crop production can remain stable in a changing ǰȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŗşşŜǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱŝŖŖȱȱȱ2 in the ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŴȱȱŗǯŞŴǯȱȱȱ important to understand the interactions before developing climate change adaptation ȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱě-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ£ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 as a ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 concentration. ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱŚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ2. ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱ ǱȱǻŗǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǻŘǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǻřǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǻŚǼȱȱĜȱȱ drought conditions. ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ eases in response to the changes in prevalence of the host species and the suitability of ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ dence that climate change has already changed the overall abundance, seasonality, and ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱĴǼȱȱȱǯȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA and changes in rainfall distribution may lead to changes in spatial or temporal distri-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȬȱǼǯ Climate Change Impact in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱŘoȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱŗśƖȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŖƖǰȱ¡ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱŗŖƖȱȱŘŖƖȱ ¢ȱŘŖřŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŗǚȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŘǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ adapt to climate variability and change include improved seasonal forecasts, drought ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯ ęȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱřȱȱŚȱǼǰȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ2ȱǻŚŚŖȱǼȱȱȱǻƸŖǯŞoǼȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ2ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŚŖȱȱȱȱǻŚŚŖȱǰȱƸŖǯŞoǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ 139 140 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱǻȱȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱĚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŘǰȱŗşşśǰȱŗşşŝǰȱŗşşşǰȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢Ǽȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱǻȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱĚȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱĴȱǯȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢Ǽȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ĝȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯ The potential impacts of climatic change on overall performance of domestic ani-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǯȱȱ ingestion of feed is directly related to body heat production, any change in voluntary ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ from GCM scenarios have been used to develop production and response models for ȱęȱ ȱȱȱĴǰȱȱȬȱ¢ȱĴȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱǰȱ primarily average daily temperature, to estimate direct climate-‐‑induced changes in ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȬŗşŞŜȱȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱ2ȱǻǅŘŖŚŖǼȱȱȱ2ȱǻǅŘŖşŖǼȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȯȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȦ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱŗǯŘƖȱȱȱȱȱŖǯşƖȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǲȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱŘǯŖƖȱȱȱȱȱ ŖǯŝƖȱȱȱ ¢ȱǲȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱŘǯŘƖȱȱȱ ȱŘǯŗƖȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱřŞŞȱȱǻǅŚƖǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱŘŗşȱȱǻǅŘǯŘƖǼȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŘƖȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŗşşśȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŝƖǯȱ¡¢ȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ǯ ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱřǯŘƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǻ ǼȱȱŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ řǯśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘřǯŚǚǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ animals not adapted to those conditions. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ predicting direct and indirect impacts on the agricultural sector in the SE region are £ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ portunities for agriculture to contribute to mitigation are also highlighted. Virginia. ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ śǰřřśȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ North Carolina. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŖǯŜŝǚȱ ȱȱȱŘǯŘǚȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȂȱȱǞŝŖǯŞȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘřƖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱŗşşŜȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ŗŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŘǯŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȂȱŘŖŖŘȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǞřşŞȱ ȱȱěȱȱŚǰřŖŖȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ industry is projected to lose 10% of its yield through heat stress due to an increase of śǚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Tennessee. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȬȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ South Carolina. ȱȱȱŗŚǯŞƖȱȱȱȂȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȬȱȱȱȂȱŗŝǯŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǞŗŝȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŚŘƖǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřŘƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ 141 142 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¢ȱŗǯŝǚȱȱřǯşǚȱ ȱŘŖřŖȱȱŘŗŖŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Alabama. ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŝƖȱȱȱȱǰȱ şƖȱȱȱȱȱŝŘƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱŝŖȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ŗşŞŖȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱǞŗȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱŘŗȱěȱ ȱǻĴȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ Georgia. ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŘŖǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗśƖȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘśƖȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱŘŖŖŝȱ ȱȱȱǞŗǯřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŞřǯŞȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱǞŗŜŖǯŗȱȱȱĴǰȱǞşŘǯśȱȱȱǰȱȱǞŜřǯŗȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ Florida. ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯśȱȱŘǯŚǯŜǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖȱŗŜƖȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǞŜŜŗȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȬ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱǞŜȱȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŘśǰȱȱȱǞŘśȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ Ěȱ ȱȱŗŖǰŚŖŖȱȱȱǰȱŗǰŞŖŖȱȱȱǰȱȱŘǰŞŖŖȱȱȱȂȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǞŚǯŞȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬěȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȂȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱşǼȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Arkansas. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǞŗŜǯřȱȱȱȱȂȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǞřşŝȱȱȱŘŖŖşȯŘŖŚȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǞŚŜȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱ ŘŖƖȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ emissions through production of biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol using crop residues, ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯ Louisiana. ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŜǰŘŖŖȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱĚȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯřǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ 7.3 Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in the Southeast USA ȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ types of adaptation can protect and even improve farm productivity. Adaptation has ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of local or regional changes in rainfall and temperature and global changes in atmo-‐‑ ȱ2 concentrations. Therefore, understanding the local impacts of regional cli-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ 143 144 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻ¡ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ£-‐‑ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȬȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ includes tools for seasonal forecast for much of the SE, including planting date sched-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǯǯǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱǰȱ ȱ2ǼǰȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ Figure 7.2 Relationship of global climate change, regional/local climate change, agricultural impact and agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȬȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ duction, as an important strategy for climate change mitigation, have been investigated ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Current Adaptation Strategies in Crop Production ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ£ȱǰȱȱȱȱ systems such as AgroClimate. Sod-‐‑based rotation. ȱȬȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȦ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱĴǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȬȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ increased root activity at greater depths. The root mass produced by perennial grass is ŘŖȱȦǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱřȱȱŚȱȦȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯ Sustainable soil management strategies. Conservation tillage is one of the sustain-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěǰȱȱ ȱęǰȱȱȬȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱThe use ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱȦȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ temperature during critical crop reproduction periods. Keeping the soil covered year ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱęǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱ 145 146 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Variable-‐‑rate irrigation. ȬȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęǲȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬęȱȱ¢ǰȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱěȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ ȱǯȱ Micro-‐‑irrigation. Ȭȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ £ǯȱȱǰȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ -‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ǯǯǯĚǯǼǯ ȬǰȱȬȱȱǯȱA sensor-‐‑based, variable-‐‑rate nitro-‐‑ ȱȱǻǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȬ-‐‑ ȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱÛȱȱȱÛȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ greenhouse gas emissions. AgroClimate: Information and tools for climate-‐‑smart agriculture. AgroClimate is a Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȦȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱěȱǰȱȱ ȱȱÛȱȱȱÛȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱÛȱȱȱÛȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tions using several drought indices and be alerted via e-‐‑mail and mobile phones about Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯǯǯ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ and forage availability. In animal agriculture, adaptation technologies have been stud-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȬȱ¡ǰȱ ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ǻŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ǻřǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ3 and C4ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǲȱ ǻŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱǻśǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ǲȱǻŜǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ȱǻŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to avoid losses. The Capacity for Agricultural Stakeholders to Adapt to Climate Change Adaptive capacity is an emergent property that confers resilience to perturbation ǻǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ the stability of social relations, the maintenance of social capital and economic pros-‐‑ ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱĴȱ breeds along the gulf coast that are more resistant to heat and tropical diseases than the ȱȱĴǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ£ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ determined by more than their access to appropriate technologies or management prac-‐‑ ǯȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ that limit options for adaptation. ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ 147 148 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ĵȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŜȱȱśŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ state and local scales, governments are also engaged in cross-‐‑agency collaborations to ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ¢ǼȱȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱÛȱȱȱ Ûȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȬȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ¡ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱ ŝǯřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA Figure 7.3 Perceived usefulness of forecasts and projections at specific timescales among row crop stakeholders (N=57) in the SE USA (Bartels et al. 2012a). ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖśȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ velopment and dissemination of decision support tools that are accessible and relevant ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȂȱǰȱ ĴǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŝǯŚǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ changes and seasonal variability in climate. In assessing the barriers and opportunities ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȬȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 149 150 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 7.4 Framework for a combined climate variability and change extension program (Fraisse et al. 2009). ȱȬȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ control over other factors, such the federal farm bill, access to industrial infrastructure ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȃȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȄȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ǯȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱěǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ£Ȭ ęȬȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȃȂȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȄȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯ 7.4 Assessment and Research Needs Climate change impact and adaption research needs in agriculture include general ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ General Research Needs Current climate change impact and adaption assessments are often local-‐‑, method-‐‑ and Ȭȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯȱȱǼǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ propriate adaptation strategies, as outlined in the Agriculture Model Intercomparison ȱȱȬȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ able climate datasets for historical and projected climates. These climate datasets need ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęǰȱȬ ǰȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ 151 152 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡£ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ mechanistic crop models and their application in climate adaptation studies. These gaps ȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱěȱȬ ȱǲȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ǲȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱĚ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱ2. ěȱȱȱ2 and temperature are often not considered ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱęǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 and stomata closure can increase pollen ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǻǁřŘǚȱǻŞşǯŜŴǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ2 ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ2ȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ǯȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ2ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ęȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ěȱȱȱ2ȱȱĚȱǲȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǲȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ¡¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ2. ȱȱȱȱ2 and ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱęȱȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ2 and ȱȱ ȱȱěȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȬȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ£Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȬȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱěȱȱȱ2 ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2, temperature, ǰȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŝǰȱȱȱ ȱŗşşŝǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱ2 and ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ conditions. Such analysis gives plant breeders a chance to target genetics to adapt to ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱĴȱȱ ȱȱ2ȱ£ȱ of crops and hence this is also absent from simulation studies. ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ2 condi-‐‑ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Yield quality. ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ importance than changes in mean temperatures for grain yields, so crop models may ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ Modeling growth events. ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱĚȱȱęȱ ȱǯȱ New cultivars and farming systems. In addition to improved modeling capacities and ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ĜǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ 153 154 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ needs to those of crops, though there has been less research to improve understand-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ¡ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ Ěȱ¢ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ Ȭęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ aptation measures over the long term. An improved understanding of climate change impacts on pastureland should be sought through comprehensive studies that include £ȱǰȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȬǲȱȬę¡ȱ Ǽǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Studies addressing the impacts of climate changes on parasites and pathogens that ef-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ Seasonal forecast models. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ and tornados to improve planning and adaptation to seasonal climate variability and change. Specific Research Needs for the SE USA ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ research is essential for agriculture to remain socially, economically, and environmen-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱ some of those needs. Climate datasets and collaboration between agricultural and climate modelers. To be used in impact simulation models, especially agriculture and hydrology, GCM and ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and solar radiation. ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ǯȱǯǼǯȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱǯȱǯǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱ thereby helping climate scientists improve their methods. ǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱTraditional agricultural ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȯȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¡ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tant elements to the overall agricultural research portfolio regarding climate change, but they should be incorporated into integrated approaches to assure that they contrib-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱPopulation increases in the SE have led the nation ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ£ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ farmers in the SE to develop and assess technologies to mitigate and adapt to climate variability and change. Additional, albeit similar, research is needed to identify, de-‐‑ velop and incorporate adaptive technologies into agricultural systems. These technolo-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ to agricultural research and development. 7.5 References ¡ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŗǼǱȱřřȬŚřǯ ȱǯǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢¢ ŗŜŞȱǻŗŜǼǱȱŗşŖşȬŗşŗŞǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ2 concentrations, ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱŗřŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŖŘȬŗŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ŝŜȱǻŘŖǼǱȱŗŗşȬŗŘşǯ 155 156 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ ¡ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱŗŝȱǯȱȱȱ¢, ȱŘŖŖśǯȱĴȱĴǰȱěǰȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱěȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 concentration. ȱȱȱŝřȱǻŗǼǱȱŗȬřŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘǯȱȱ and nitrate leaching. ȱȱȱȱȱŚşȱǻřŖǼǱȱřŚśȬřŜŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǯȱŗşŞŗǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱŗǯȱ Thermal response in the seedling phase. ȱȱǰȱřȱǻŗşŞŖǼǱȱřŜśȬřŝŞǯ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞśŖŖȱǯȱȱȱȱ May 10, 2011. ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȯǰȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǯȱȱȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ǯȦȦ Ȭ¢ȬȬ¢ȦȬȦ¢Ȭ Ȭ¢ȬȦ ĴǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ dia. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŘřȱǻŜǼǱȱŜşřȬŝŖśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱŗŞȬŘŖǰȱŘŖŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱǱȱȱ¡ȱ and temperature. In ȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ, ǯȱǯȱ£ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱǯȱśşǰȱȬȬǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑nearest neighbor approach. -‐‑ ȱȱǭȱ ȱŘřȱǻŜǼǱȱŝŖřȬŝŗřǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱȱǽ2Ǿȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ long-‐‑season peanut cultivar. Climatic ChangeȱşřȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱřŞşȬŚŖŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǭȱȱȱȱŗŘȬŖŖŗǯȱ¢ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȦȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǱȱŗŘȬŖŖŘǯȱ¢ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȦȱȱǯ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ¢ L. var. Ǽǯȱ¢ȱŚŜȱǻŚǼǱȱśşśȬŜŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ability. In ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ęǰȱ ǯȱĵȬ ǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱřŝŖȬřşśǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǱȱ¢Ȭ ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱęĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢-‐‑ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tation to climate change. ȱȱśŗȱǻŜǼǱȱŘřřŝȬŘřŚřǯȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ models. In ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱǰȱǰȱȱǰ ǯȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱ£ ǰȱŗŖşȬŗŘşǯȱǰȱȱǱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ globally important crops. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŜŖȱǻśǼǱȱŚŜşȬŚŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱŗŖȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŗǼǱȱşȬŗŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬǰȱǯȱŝŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱ in participatory decision support system development. Climatic ChangeȱŞŝȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱřŞśȬŚŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ £ȱȱěȱȱȱǱȱȱśȬȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱŚŞȱǻŚǼǱȱŚŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tion in agriculture. ȱȱȱ¢ȱřȱǻŗǼǱȱŗȬŗŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ-‐‑ ciencies. ¢ȱȱŗřřȱǻŚǼǱȱŝŖśȬŝŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŞşȱ ǻřǼǱȱřşśȬŚŖşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ 49 ǻŚǼǱȱŗŘŘřȬŗŘřřǯ Calderini, D., R. Savin, L. Abeledo, M. Reynolds, G. Slafer. 2001. The importance of the period ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱŗŗşȱǻŗȬ ŘǼǱȱŗşşȬŘŖŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱŗŝȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȏȦȦęȦ ƖŘŖƖŘŖ¢ŘşŖşǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ Cohen, M.R. 2009. ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦęȦǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ -‐‑ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȂȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŚŚȬśşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱśŝȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱŗŝşȬŗŞśǯ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŗŖȱȱ ŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȱ 157 158 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȂȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ sented at Alabama Environmental Education Consortium conference Climate Change and ǱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱŚǰȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱǻŗǼǱȱŘŘřȬŘřŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¡ǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ studies in global change research. ȱ¢ȱŗŝŘȱǻŚǼǱȱśşŞȬŜŖŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢Ǳȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼǱȱ ŗŘŝřȬŗŘşŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ££ȬǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱĜȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2ǵȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŜŖşȬŜřşǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ-‐‑ tury. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻśŖǼǱȱ ŗşŜŝşȬŗşŜŝşǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱǱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşŝŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ide and stomata. ȱ¢¢ȱŜŘȱǻřŖǼǱȱŚŖŜȬŚŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȬ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŘȱǻśǼǱȱŜřŗȬŜřşǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşŝşǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚśȱǻŘǼǱȱŞřȬşŚǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŗŚśȱǻŘǼǱȱşşȬŗŗřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ mieson. ȱȱȱŗŖśȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŗśȬŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǯȱřśŘȮřŞŝǯȱȱȱȬȱ¢Ǳȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱǯȱȱǯȱǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŞŜŗǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŞȱǻŗřǼǱȱŘŜŘŗȬŘŜŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱŚŝȱǻŘǼǱȱŘşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȂǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱśřȱǻŗǼǱȱŗřȬŘŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŜȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǱȱřśŗȬřśŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tion among Georgia organic farmers. In ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ 09-‐‑003ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȃęȄǱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖşȱǻřǼǱȱŝşŗȬŝşşǯ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŗşşŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ2 enrichment. ǰȱȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŝǼǱȱŜśşȬŜŜşǯ ȱ¢ȱǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ManagementȱşŜȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗřŜşȬŗřŝŜǯ ȱ¢ȱǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ inter-‐‑annual variation of peanut yield in Georgia using a dynamic crop simulation model. ȱȱȱȱŚşȱǻŜǼǱȱŘŖŖśȬŘŖŗśǯ ȱ¢ȱǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱşŝȱǻŝǼǱȱşŞŗȬşŞŝǯ ȱ¢ȱǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ȱǭȱȱŗřşȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŘşȬŜřśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¡-‐‑ ǯȱǰȱȱǱȱ ȱȱǯ ǯȱȃȱęȱȱȱȱȄǯȱȱȱŗŝǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯǯȦȦȦȦŖşȦŗŗŖşǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŝŝǰȱ 10-‐‑20. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŗȱǻŗŘǼǱȱśŞŝȬśşřǯ ęǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱŗŖřȱǻŘǼǱȱ řśŗȬřŝŖǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱǯȱĜǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŚǼǱȱřŞŗȬŚŖŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱǯȱĜǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŚǼǱȱřŞŗȬŚŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȮȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱěȱȱǯȱśŜřşŗȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢Ĵǰȱ Ǳȱ¢ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱǯȱ 302 ǻśŜśŖǼǱȱŗśŗŘȬŗśŗřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱǰȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 159 160 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŝŚşȬŞŚŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ £ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£¤ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱěȱĴ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŝŝȱǻŘȬřǼǱȱŗŗśȬŗŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱřŖŚȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱřŖŗȬřŗŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱęȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱŘřŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŜşȬŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱǱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱŜŘȱǻşǼǱȱ ŝşřȬŝşŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ2ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŗśŖȱǻŘǼǱȱŘşśȬřŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱǱȱ2ȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ temperature. In ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȯǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱ£ ǰȱŞŝȬŗŖŝǯȱǱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱClimatic Change ŘřǱȱŘŗȬřŜǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŗŘřȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŗȬŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ and adapt to climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŜŜȱǻŚǼǱȱŘŝŜȬŘŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱǯȱ In ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱśŝȬŞŖǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǱȱȱǯ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ Ȃȱȃ¡ȱȄǱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱǻŘǼǱȱŚŞśȬŚşŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŚśȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱŘŘşȬŘřŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ǯȱȱȱĴǰȱŘȱǻŗǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱǱȱ -‐‑ ȬȬ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ2 concentrations. ȱřŗŘȱǻśŝŞŘǼǱȱ ŗşŗŞȬŗşŘŗǯ ĴǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱŗşŞŖȬŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ŗŝȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ŗǯǯǯȦȦȦȦŘŖŖŜŞŜŗǯŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ temperature. ¢ȱȱşŘȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŜŜȬŘŝŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŗŖřǱȱ ŗŘŝȬŗřŜǯȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǵȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ March 4, 2010. Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬ ȱ2ȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȦ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱŘşŚȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱ ŗřŝȬŗŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱŞŗǱȱ 110-‐‑119. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŗśǱȱśřȬŜŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŘȱǯȱǰȱ¢ȱǭȱ-‐‑ mentȱŜŚȱǻŗǼǱȱŜśȬŝřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱŘȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŝȱǻŘǼǱȱŝşȬŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ sustainable agriculture in Alabama. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ǼȱŚŚȱǻŜǼǱȱŗśŝŞȬŗśşŖǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ can public. ȱȱȱřŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŜŜȬŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŝǼǱȱ ŗŚśşȬŗŚŝśǯ £ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱęǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱęǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱŗŘȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗşŜşȬŗşŝŜǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşŞśǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȬȱĜ¢ȱȱȱŘǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŞȱǻŜǼǱȱŚŜŝȬŚŝŚǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȬȦȬȦȬȬ ǯ¡ȱ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŞŝȱǻŚǼǱȱ ŚŞŚȬŚŞśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǰȱȬŞşǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȬ ȱȱǻǼǱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ plication on yield. ȱȱŘşȱǻśǼǱȱŚŚŞȬŚśřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗřśȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŞŗȬşŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŗȱǻŘŝǼǱȱşşŝŗȬşşŝśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱǱȱȱȱȱ yield ceiling. In ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱŚth ȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱ 161 162 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŚŞȱǻśǼǱȱśŗŗȬśŘŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ practices. ȱ¢ȱŗŖŖȱǻŗȬřǼǱȱŗŗȬŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱřřȱǻŞǼǱȱŗŖśśȬŗŖŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱřŘȱǻŚǼǱȱŘŝŘȬŘŝşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǲȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱęȱśȱǻśǼǱȱśŖśȬśŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱǱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗřȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŗŗřȬŗśśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǵȱǰȱ¢ȱǭȱȱŞŘȱǻŗȬřǼǱȱŘŝřȬŘŞŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşŗȱǻŗśǼǱȱŝŘŗŝȬŝŘŘŗǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŗȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŖřȬŜŗŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱřşǱȱŘŚśȬŘŚŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ Cruise. 2002. ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ changeȯǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ climate predictions. ȱȱřřȱǻŗǼǱȱŞŗȬşşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬęȱ ȱȱȱ2. ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ ŘřȱǻřǼǱȱŘśřȬŘŜŚǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ęǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǱȱ Protocols and pilot studies. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗśŗȱǻŝǼǱȱŞŗŝȬŞŘŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ 99 ǻŘȬřǼǱȱŗřŜȬŗŚŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȬȱĜ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǯȱ ĚȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱȱśŞȱǻŝǼǱȱŜśŝȬŜŜşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŘȱǻřǼǱȱŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ2. ȱŘşŞȱǻśŜŖŖǼǱȱŗşŞŝȬŗşşŖǯ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ şŞȱǻŘȬřǼǱȱŘŗŜȬŘŘŗǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱşŞȱǻŘȬřǼǱȱŗśŗȬŗśŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗǱȱśȬŗřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱĴȱǱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱşŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŜŖȬŜŝǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ2ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŝşȱǻŗǼǱȱŝśȬŞŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ŗŘȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱĜǼǯȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȄǯȱȱŗŝȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦȦ ȏȏǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȬȱȱȱŖŗȬŚŖŗŗǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱŘśȬŘşǯȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ǯȱȱřŘŝȱǻśşŜŝǼǱȱŞŗŞȬŞŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŘśȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŖŞȬŗŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱśŚȱǻřŞŞǼǱȱŗŝřŗȬŗŝŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻśŖǼǱȱŗşŜŞŜȬŗşŜşŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱǱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǽ2Ǿȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǭȱȱŗŘŝȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱŘŗśȬŘŘŘǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴȱǰȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱŗŘȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ-‐‑ ǯǯȦȏȬŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȬȱǻȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱȱŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȱȱ ȬȱǻȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȬ ȬǯȱȱŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȬȦȬȬ ǯ¡ 163 164 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱǯȱȱŗŖȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦŘŖŖŝȦȏȦȱ ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱęǱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯ ȱǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions. ȱŚȱřŝŝȬřşŘǯ ȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȁ ¢ȬěȂǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ics. ȱȱȱȱȱŚşȱǻŝǼǱȱŗŖŞřȬŗŖşřǯ ȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŜȱ ǻŘǼǱȱřśŞȬřşŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱǭȱȱŞŝȱǻřǼǱȱŘŜŗȬŘŝŗǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱŜŜȱǻŚǼǱȱřŗśȬřŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ2 and temperature. ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŗŘŝȱǻŗǼǱȱřŝȬŚŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ pacts of climate change on crop production. ȱȱȱŗŘŚȱǻřǼǱȱřśŝȬřŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȬȦ-‐‑ Ȧ ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱǰȱę¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱĜǰȱǰȱǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȬȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱŘŗȱǻŜǼǱȱŞŝśȬŞŞśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱěȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱ¢ȱǭȱ-‐‑ ȱŗŖŚȱǻřǼǱȱŚşřȬśŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŞŚȱǻŗǼǱȱŚśȬśŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱŗŘǱȱŘśȬŚŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ-‐‑ gimes. ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱŜŝȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŝŞȬŗŞŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŗşŚȱǻŗǼǱȱŚŝȬśŚǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱ thoughts on food. ȱ¢ȱŗŝśȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŖŝȬŜŗŞǯ Chapter 8 Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Steven McNulty (steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Peter Caldwell (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Thomas W. Doyle (National Wetlands Research Center, US Geological Survey, Lafayette, Louisiana) Kurt Johnsen (Southern Institute of Forest Ecosystems Biology, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina) Yongqiang Liu (Center of Forest Science Disturbance, USDA Forest Service, Athens, Georgia) Jacqueline Mohan (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Jeff Prestemon (Forest Economics Unit, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) 165 166 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱ¢ǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ traction of farming and the rise of plantation forestry in the 20th century, the struc-‐‑ ture and function of southern forests continues to evolve. Climate change represents ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱĚȱ ȱ¡£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗst ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Key Findings f ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ beetle. f ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ǯȱ f ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ2Ǽǯȱ f ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 8.1 Historical Perspective ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱŗŞŜŖǰȱ ȱŚřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŘŖȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱĴǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŘŖȱȱ resulted in abandonment of large areas of crop and pasture lands. Some of the aban-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşśŖȱȱ¢ȱ ŗşŜŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA forests for soybean and other crop production. Much of this timberland reduction oc-‐‑ ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗşŞŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǻȱȱŗƖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖƖȱȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ 8.2 Southeastern Forest Types ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȦǰȱȬ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗśȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱŗřȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ ǰȱȱȱȱřȱȱȱȬ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ2ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ-‐‑ est management could be used to cope, adapt, or mitigate negative impacts. Atlantic and East Gulf Coastal Plain. ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȬȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȬ ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ¡Ǽǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ¢ȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼǰȱȱȱ ǻȱ£Ǽǰȱȱ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ varies as does the potential impacts on trees species. Several dendrochronological ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱȬ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ 167 168 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES and potential future droughts, may be a major impact on the distribution of some ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖřȱȱ ŗśƖȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱȱśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱǯȱThese forests cover much of the high elevation areas of the Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ systems, the high elevation forests of the southern Appalachian ecosystems are at ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřoȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱŚŞŖǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱęȱǻȱ and ȱǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ elevations in North Carolina and harboring federally threatened animal species, includ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱĚ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȬ ȱȃȄȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱęȬȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ Ě ǰȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ability has increased. If these trends continue, they could lead to substantial change in the structure and function of future southern Appalachian forests. In addition to determining biodiversity, climate variability also controls forest ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¤Û£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŚǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱǻ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA to have been of centuries-‐‑scale duration in the time period 4,000 to 1,000 years before ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗǰŖŖŖȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱǰȱȱǻȱǯǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǯǼȱȱȱǻȱspp.Ǽȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Piedmont. The Piedmont region lays southeast of the Appalachian region and stretches ȱȬȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŞǯŗǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŗŚȱ¢ȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ ǼǰȱȱȂȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ less-‐‑diverse forests may be more susceptible to insect and pathogen pests, and that ¢ȱǻ¢ȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change scenarios considered. Conversely, under those projections the biomass of chest-‐‑ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ2ȱȱǻǼȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ2 increases the productivity of the canopy loblolly pine and ȱȱǻȱ¢ĚǼȱȱ¢ȱŘřƖȱȱŘŝƖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ 2ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯ Coastal wetland forests. ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ Coastal Plain and maritime ecosystems and are responsive to changes in climate and ȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 169 170 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 8.1 Mixed conifer and deciduous Piedmont forest in the southeastern USA. ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱěȱǻǯǯǰȱĚǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǼǰȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ£ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ǻ£ȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¡ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ mangroveȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ coastlands to mangrove dominated shores, due to climatic changes, may also lead to ȱȱęȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ Climate change poses some immediate and long-‐‑term threats to the health, func-‐‑ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱǲȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱ in Mississippi, particularly in counties dominated by pines in the southern part of the ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȬȱ ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡¢ȱŞŖŖȱȱŗŘŖŖȱǼȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ 171 172 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 8.3 Changes in Forest Type Across the South ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǼǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ The combination of future climate, soils, and land cover may not resemble anyplace ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱǰȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ¢ȱ soils of the southeastern mountains and Piedmont are more similar to each other than ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ response to changes in SE climates. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ models themselves do not predict the future locations of tree species, as they do not ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱŗȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǻ¤Û£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱśşƖȱȱȱşŘȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱŘŗƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱŗŜƖȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŞǚȱȱŗŖoǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŖoȱȱŗśoǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŗśoǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ 8.4 Current and Projected Forest Stresses ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ function of climate or climate change, but indirectly a function of climate impacts on ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Wildfires ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŚśǰŖŖŖȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşşŝȱȱŘŖŖřȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱǰȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖřǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ ęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻÛȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ 173 174 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱǰȱ ęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ reduce fuel moisture due to increased evaporation and, therefore, increase the threat ȱ ęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ reduces soil moisture, tree productivity and fuel loading could despite the ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ precipitation are less certain than those for air temperature. Projected precipitation ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ higher in many subtropical and mid-‐‑latitude ecosystems outside the SE. This reduced ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱ Hurricanes ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗŗşȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŘǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱřǰȱŚǰȱȱśȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŜȱȱŗŚȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŘȱ-‐‑ lion m3 of timber estimated at a value of $1.4 billion to $2.4 billion dollars. Impacts are ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǲȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ forests also can also be impaired. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ eter ratios, height, spacing, recent thinning, and impacts of previous disturbance on ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ǯȱȱȱ composition may also impact the degree of damage from hurricanes. Therefore, stand ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ forest managers to reduce hurricane impacts. ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǯȱĴǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻP. taedaǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǯȱǻŗşşŗǼȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŗşşŗǼǯ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱǻŝƖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŜƖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱę¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ est composition. Insects ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǞşŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşşŖǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ impact the amount of insect caused damage under future climate conditions includ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ£ȱŗşŜŜǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ 175 176 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES change may also impact insect success. Although it is one of the principle drivers of ris-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱ2ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŝƖȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ2ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŚȱȱŝȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǞśŖŖȱȱ ǞŞŖŖȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǰȱǯǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱŗşşşȱȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱȱŘŖŖŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŞǯŘǼǯȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ soil nitrogen concentrations from sites that largely survived the drought. In addition to ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǼȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ climatic conditions also made these stands the most susceptible to mortality once those conditions changed. In combination, insects, drought, and nitrogen deposition ulti-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cline seem clear, forest managers have historically not been taught to consider vigorous ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Elevated Atmospheric CO2 ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ2 could ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ2Ǽȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱřśƖȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŘŞŖȱȱȱȱȱřŞŖȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ 2ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŞśŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA Figure 8.2 Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) mortality in western North Carolina due to a combination of drought, southern pine beetles, and acid rain. ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ also the basis of plant photosynthesis. Given that plant photosynthesis is not saturated ȱȱ2ȱǰȱȱȱȱ2ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ2 ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ 8.5 Ecosystem Services Southeastern forests have been a major source of ecosystem goods and services for ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ics and climate may change the value of and need for some ecosystem services, but an ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2, and part of a ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ Forest Productivity and Carbon Sequestration ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǲȱ ȱǲȱ£ǲȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 177 178 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¢ǯȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ2 increase and ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱřŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ter 13% of regional greenhouse emissions in soils and long-‐‑lived forest products, such ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱ Forest Water Resources ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖǯŚȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱȱǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱę-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŞǯřǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱěȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱěǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ Figure 8.3 Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation predictions of soil erosion areas within the Uwharrie National Forest by 2030. 179 180 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ 8.6 Adaptation and Mitigation Options ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ spheric carbon enrichment, as long as precipitation does not decline or air temperature ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ2 ben-‐‑ ęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŞǯŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ regional timber harvests that come from the northern reaches of the region. This may ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱ There are a variety of other adaptation strategies to address climate trends and ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ Figure 8.4 Forest model predictions of increased carbon sequestration (measured at net primary productivity, NPP) in the northern sections of the southern USA due to increasing air temperature by the end of this century. Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ be important in developing forest management regimes and increasing stand produc-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ2 enrichment may be further enhanced by improved genetics, bioen-‐‑ gineering, use of marginal agricultural land for tree production, and more intensive ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŞǯśǼǯ ȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŚŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢£ȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱ Figure 8.5 Interactions of climate (e.g., drought), biological (e.g., insects) and abiotic (e.g., fire or acid rain) can combine to cause forest mortality. The interactive stresses may be related (e.g., drought and fire) or unrelated (e.g., drought and acid rain). Any single stress may not have caused the mortality, but as climate change continues the potential for more frequent, more severe, and synergistic stress increases. 181 182 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ££Ȭȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Improved understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation options are only ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ Ȭȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȬȱȦȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭȱȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ¡Ǽȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȬȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŞǯŜǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ application of these tools. Figure 8.6 Web-based tools such as TACCIMO (Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options) are increasingly being used to easily translate scientific knowledge into the hands of the land manager. Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 8.7 Conclusions ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǲȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ pendent studies suggest that remnant species present from the last glaciation, such as ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ drier conditions in some parts of the SE, conditions could favor more drought-‐‑tolerant ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯ 8.8 References ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ-‐‑ tion of tropical cloudiness by soot. ǰȱŘŞŞȱǻśŚŜŞǼǱȱŗŖŚŘȬŗŖŚŝǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜşȱȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱřŗȱǻřǼǱȱŗŘşȬŗřŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȬȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖřȱǻřřǼǱȱŗŘŚŚŝȬŗŘŚśŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜŘȱǻřǼǱȱ ŘŜřȮŘŞŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŚȱǻřǼǱȱŗŜŚȬŗŞśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱǱȱ ȱȱŗşşşȱȱȱŘȱęȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱǱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱǱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĵǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǽ2Ǿȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŜŗȱǻřǼǱȱŞŘŝȬŞřśǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȬȱȱŜśȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŖśȬŗŗśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ȃ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ests. ¢ȱǻŘřŗȦŘřŘǼǰȱŜŖǱśŝȬŜŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱǯȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻȱǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŚŝŚȮŗŚŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱ £ȱȱȱȱ¡ȬȱȱȱŗŝȬ¢Ȭȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşǱȱŞŚşȮŞŜŗǯȱ 183 184 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ Śȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ Changeǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱȱǯǯȱǰȱŜřȬŜşǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ Survey. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱşǱŚŘŜřȬŚřŖŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ řŘŖǱȱŗŚśŜȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĴǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȂȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱȱřŗŞȱǻśŞśřǼǱȱŗŗŖŝǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ěǯȱ 1992. Climate forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. ȱŘśśȱǻśŖŚřǼǱȱŚŘřȬŚřŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ2 enhances biological contributions to ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěĴȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşŝȱǻŗǼǱȱŜŝȬŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱřşŝȬŚŚŞǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ sity Press. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŝȱǻśǼǱȱ ŗŞřŚȬŗŞŚşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ Climate change and forest disturbances. ȱśşȱǻşǼǱȱŝŘřȬŝřŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ to climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱŚŖŞȱǻŞǼǱȱŗŞŞŞȬŗşŖŗǯ ȱǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱȬ-‐‑ Ǳȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ A focus on species, ecosystems, and landscapes. ȱȱŞȱǻŚǼǱȱşŘŗȬşřŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ2Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ19, řŖŖŜǲȱ ǱȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŚŖŖŘřŚŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱěȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ change. In ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ, ed. ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱȱǯǯȱǰȱŗȬŘŞǯȱǰȱȱǱȱȱ Netherlands. ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ agementȱŘśşȱǻŚǼǱȱŝŝŖȬŝŝŝǯ ǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝǱŝŗȬŞŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Appalachian forest using soil charcoal. ¢ȱşŗȱǻřǼǱȱŜŜŘȬŜŝŖǯ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŜǼǱȱ ŘŖŚşȬŘŖŜŝǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŗȱǻŗȬřǼǱȱŜŗȬŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȬ£ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘşřȱǻśśŘşǼǱȱŚŝŚȬŚŝşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ tropics based on Magicc and a GISS GCM-‐‑derived lightning model. Climatic ChangeȱřşȱǻŘȬřǼǱȱ ŘŝřȬŘşŜǯȱ ££ȬǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ŘŜŖȱǻśǼǱȱŝşśȬŞŖśǯ ££ȬǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŘȱǻřǼǱȱ ŝŚşȬŝŝŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯ ǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱǰȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŚȬŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦŘŗŜǯŘŘŜǯŗŝŝǯŝŞȦȦęȏȏȏǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘřȱǻŚǼǱȱŚŘŖȬŚŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱǯȱȱ¡Ǳȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Carolina Piedmont forest. ȱȱŗŖǻŘǼǱȱŘŝśȬŘŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǯȱClimate ChangeȱŞŚǱȱŗşŗȬŘŖŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱśŗȱǻşǼǱȱŝŜśȬŝŝşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱȬ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱŘŝȱǻŗǼǱȱřŗȬŚřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ ¤Û£ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ stand tree recruitment response to climate change. ȱȱŝŝȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŜřȬŗŝŝǯ ¤Û£ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ-‐‑ plications under climate change. ȱȱŗŞȱǻŝǼǱȱŗŜŜŚȬŗŜŝŞǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱǰȱ ĵǱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱŗřŚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśŚȱǻřǼǱȱ řşŖȬŚŖŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ 33 ǻŚǼǱȱŗŝŞȬŗŞŗǯȱ 185 186 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱà£Ȭ ěǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ¢ȱŞşȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŖśȬŗŘŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǵȱȱȱ¢ȱşřȱǻŗŗǼǱȱřşȬŚŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱŚŞȱǻŜǼǱȱŝŖŗȬŝŘřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĚȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱśȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗȬŗŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ tropical South America. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗřřȱǻŗȬŚǼǱȱŚŖȬśřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱŗşŞŞȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱĴ 32, ŗŖŞŖŜǲȱǱȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖśŖŘŘŚŗŗ ȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśşȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŞśȬŜşŝǯ Liu, Y. 2011. A numerical study on hydrological impacts of forest restoration in the southern ȱǯȱ¢¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŘşşȬřŗŚǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱȱȱǯȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ biotic controls on change in soil elevation. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗŜȱǻśǼǱȱśŚśȬśśŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ der rapid climate change. ¢ȱŞŜȱǻŞǼǱȱŘŖŞŞȬŘŖşŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ populations using a forest ecosystem model. In The productivity and sustainability of south-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱŜŗŝȬŜřŚǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȬǰȱ ȱǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŗŗŜȱǻǯȱŗǼǱȱŗŝȬŘŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ǱȱęȱȱȂȱȱȱ loads under a changing climate. ȱȱŗśŞȱǻŜǼǱȱŘŖśřȬŘŖśŞǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱřǱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱǯȱǰȱŜŝȬŗŘŘǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱŝǱŝŝŖȮŞŖŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱ¢ĴǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱǯȱȱŝśǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱřřǰȱřŞřȬřşŚǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȬ-‐‑ ǯȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǼ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖřȱǻŘŚǼǱȱ şŖŞŜȬşŖŞşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ Implications for forest regeneration and succession. ȱȱŗŝȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŗşŞȬŗŘŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2Ǳȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱŞşȱǻŘǼǱȱśŞśȬśŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱřşȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŗřȬŘřŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱȱǱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ¢ȱŗŝşȱǻřǼǱȱŞŗŞȬŞŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǰȱǯǯȱȬ££ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŘȱǻśŖǼǱȱŗŞŖśŘȬŗŞŖśŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability. ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŝȱǻŚśǼǱȱŗşřŜŞȬŗşřŝřǯ ȂǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ in simulations of 21st-‐‑century climate change. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻřśǼǱȱŗŚŝŝřȬŗŚŝŝŝǯ ȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ §ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱŘȬȱǯȱȱŚŗŗǱȱŚŜşȬŚŝŘǯȱ ÛǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱ ǰȱ ęȱ£ǰȱȱ ęȱȱȱ coastal eastern Spain. Climatic ChangeȱřŞȱǻřǼǱȱřŚśȬřśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗřśȱǻřǼǱȱřŜŖȬřŜŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȬśřǰȱǰȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ & Sons, Inc. ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗŖȱǻŚǼǱȱŚŗśȬŚŘŝǯ £ȱǯǯȱŗşŜŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ £ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǽȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǾǯȱȱřȱǻŜǼǱŞȬȱŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ role of genetics and tree improvement in southern forest productivity. In General Technical ȱȱŝśǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ search Station, Chapter 10. 187 188 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱŝŗȱǻřǼǱȱřŘşȬřřşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱȬ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱCana-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱřşȱǻřǼǱȱśŖŝȬśŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ forest landscapes. In ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬśř, ed. ǯǯȱȱȱǯȱǰȱŜŖŝȬŜřŖǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśŖȱ ǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŗŗşȬŗřśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱŗşśşȬŗşşŝǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱŗŖŝǰȱŞŗŚşǲȱǱȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŗŖŖŖŚŞŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŗŜǰȱŖŖŖśǲȱ ǱȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŖŗśŝřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȦȦ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱŚřǯȱǰȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱśǱȱŚŘŗȬŚřŜǯ ȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱǱȱ Implications for current pine management. In ȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬŝŗǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱŗŘŝȬŗřŗǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŗȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŝȬřśǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ŚǱśřȬşŜȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱǻǯǼȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȬŚŘȬǯȱŘǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢¢ȱśȱǻřǼǱȱŚŖśȬŚŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȮśř. ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǯǯȱȂȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśǱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱŖşşǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŖşȱǻśŝŚŘǼǱȱŗŞŚŚȬŗŞŚŜǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ ęȱ¢ǯȱȱřŗřȱǻśŝŞşǼǱȱşŚŖȬşŚřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŞŝȬşşǯ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ prises. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśȱǻşǼǱȱŚŝśȮŚŞŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŗȱǻŗȬřǼǱȱřŚŗȬřśŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ sponse to climate change. ȱȱȱŗŞȱǻřǼǱȱŗŖŚŘȬŗŖśŘǯ 189 Chapter 9 Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA LEAD AUTHOR Julie A. Anderson (janderson@agcenter.lsu.edu; Louisiana State University Agricultural Center and Louisiana Sea Grant, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Shirley M. Baker (University of Florida, IFAS School of Forest Resources and Conservation; Gainesville, Florida) Gary L. Graham (Texas Sea Grant Program, Texas A&M University; Palacios, Texas) Michael G. Haby (Texas Sea Grant Program, Texas A&M University; Corpus Christi, Texas) Steven G. Hall (Louisiana State University and Louisiana State University Agricultural Center; Baton Rouge, Louisiana) LaDon Swann (Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium; Auburn, Alabama) William C. Walton (Auburn University and Alabama Cooperative Extension System; Dauphin Island, Alabama) Charles A. Wilson (Louisiana Sea Grant College Program and Louisiana State University; Baton Rouge, Louisiana) 190 Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱęǰȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ has already been seen throughout the region. Key Findings f As land loss continues from sea level rise, subsidence, and coastal inundation, ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęęȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ǲȱ ę-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱǯ f ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱ¡Ǽǯ f ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ¢¡ȱ ȱ Ěȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ¢¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬěǰȱǰȱȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ Ȭěǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ěǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ on decadal time periods based on multiple parameters including temperature, ȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱ f ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱęȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯ 9.1 Background ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Information includes the research needs necessary to increase societal resiliency to cli-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ 191 192 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ered more thoroughly in the natural ecosystem chapter. Some of these gaps in coverage are addressed in the research needs portion, and these topics should be included in future assessments. Commercial Fishing ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȬ line, cast nets, gill nets, tongs, and other gear types is conducted in state and federally ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ęǰȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱĚǰȱǰȱǰȱ mullets, red snapper, striped bass, and tunas. ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŝŞŝȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŞŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǻȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱŗǰŝŜśȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱǞŚŝŚȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǰŝŚśȱȱȱȱ ęęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ȦǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱęȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Recreational Fishing ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȱ ǰȱĴȱǰȱ¢ ęȱǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ -‐‑ ȱǰȱǰȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱ ęǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǞŚŘȱȱȱŘŖŖŜȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ¡¢ȱǞŗşȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǞŜǯŗȱ ȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŜȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA Aquaculture ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǞŝŚŖȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ęǰȱ¢ǰȱȬȱ ęȱȱǰȱǰȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ -‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ęȱǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱ ęǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱŞŖŖȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱ ȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ Ȃȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ broad range of organisms from algae to turtles. Louisiana also has a thriving pet turtle ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱęǰȱȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱ¢ ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŗŝȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Production methods. ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŗşşŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ tem in use is the earthen pond and may include simple small farm ponds in addition to ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ 9.2 Climate Change Effects ȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ 193 194 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǲȱ -‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱĚ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȬȱǲȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ their body temperature and, therefore, their internal temperatures match the environ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŝǚȱȱŗŖǚȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱǯȱȬȱȱȱȱŗşśŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱśśǚǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ śŖǚǼȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱ.ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱ. ŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĜȱǯȱȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘȱȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Finfish and Crustacean Shellfish ȱȱęęȱȱȱęȱǻǯǯȱǰȱǰȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǯ Wetland loss and sea level rise. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱěǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŘǯśȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşǯśȱȱȱ year. Climate change could increase global mean sea level rise 20 cm to 200 cm over the ¡ȱŗŖŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯřǯŞǼǯȱ¢ȱȂȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱşŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŜǯŚƖȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşřŖǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ large land masses are splintered, the total interface area increases due to the combined ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA sea level rise eventually result in the total loss of these splintered islands and reduced ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęęȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻě¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱŗşŞśǼǯȱ ȱ Ȭȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱě-‐‑ ȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ into the bays and estuaries by ocean currents, and from there they move into the rivers ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ years and can live to age ten. Changes in ocean currents could disrupt larval transport ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱȱȱŗşşřǰȱȱŗşşŚǼǯ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱěȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱȱȱ ŗşşřǰȱȱŗşşŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢Ȭȱ ǰȱ ęęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęǰȱ¡ȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ¢¡ȱȱĚȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Changes in species distributions occur much more rapidly in the marine environ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱŗşŞşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱãȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ per ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŞŗŜȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ 195 196 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES at the same rate or at all. These disconnected shifts of species in a system may have ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻ ȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ more research is needed in this area. ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱǻ ȱ Ǽȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱ ȱŗşşŚǼǯȱ Storm severity. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱřȱȱśǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘǯŚǯŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬěǰȱȱȱǰȱĚǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ processing plants, and distribution centers. These types of losses have already been ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱşǯŗǼǯ Molluscan Shellfish ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱěȱěȱȱȱȱȱęęȱȱ-‐‑ ȱęǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǞŚŘȱȯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ǲȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱęȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱĚ ǯȱ -‐‑ ever, larger changes in range could occur on longer time periods based on multiple ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA Figure 9.1 A fishing vessel lies on its side near a wholesale fishing dock in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, after Hurricane Katrina. Adjacent infrastructure also suffered massive damage. Photo by Paula Ouder. Courtesy of Louisiana Sea Grant College Program. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱęȱȱǯ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ fects on the physiology of species, leading to possible impacts on metabolism, repro-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŗşşřǰȱȱȱǯȱŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȮȱȱřǚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗst century in the area east-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŝǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ cies such as the green mussel, ȱǰȱǻ¢ȱȱȱǼȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ 197 198 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢¡ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȬ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Sea level rise. ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱę¢ǯȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ tivity and accessibility of privately leased oyster beds and clam farms. ȱȱȱȱǯȱIncreased precipitation, predicted for ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ÛȬȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱǻŗşşşǼȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ could mean to the region. ȱęǯȱȱěȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱǰȱȱę-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱęȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ2ȱȱȱśŜŖȱȱŞŖŖȱΐǼȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ Ǽ and found modest decreases in shell area and calcium content in specimens treated ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ2ȱȱǻȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2ȱǼǰȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Severity of storms. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱęȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA ¢ȱěǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¡ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ĜǰȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱǯ Freshwater Fisheries and Aquaculture ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱǰȱ ȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ęȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱ ěǯ ȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ěȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ęȱ£ǯȱ¢ȱ ěȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱěȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ Alligator farmers depend on the collection of eggs from nests found in coastal or ȱ ȱǯȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ Stress levels increase as salinity increases causing female alligators to abort nesting ȱ¢ȱȱŞȱȱŗŖȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŗşŞşǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŗŘŚǰŖŖŖȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ streams are all vulnerable to these climate change conditions. 199 200 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 9.3 Complicating Factors ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĚ-‐‑ ǯȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱĚȱȱěȱȱ climate change on these sectors. The Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone ȱȱȱȱěȱȱŚŗƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱȱ¢¡ȱ£ȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ£ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŝǰŝŘŘȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢¡ȱ£ȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Harmful Algal Blooms ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ and other ȃȱȄȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǞŗşȱȱȱǞřŘȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱǰȱěǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱěȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ and impacting the economics of the region. Restoration Conflicts ȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȂȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻě¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ faces these same challenges if there are shifts in salinity regimes due to climate change. Water Use ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ ǞřŘŜȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ 9.4 Adaptation and Mitigation ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȯȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱěǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱşǰȱȱşǯŘǯřǼ Monitoring ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱěȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱǻĴǱȦȦęǯǯĚǯ Ȧ ȏ¢ǯǼȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ prior to planting or harvest. This results in decreased fuel use and costs and, therefore, ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Gear Efficiency ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ vals for various preventive maintenance activities may enable remaining operators to ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǲȱȬǰȱȱ 201 202 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Ȭ¢ǰȱ¢¢ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱțǲȱȱȬ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ Results generated by co-‐‑operators across the Gulf and South Atlantic suggest that other ęȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŖƖȱȱŘŞƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱęȱȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Shifting Effort ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱęȱȱǼȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ Carbon Sequestration ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ native oysters and can produce food and habitat, provide protection from erosion, aid ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬĴȱǯȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱŝŖƖȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ǻȱ and ȱǼǰȱȱǻȱǯǼȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱǯǼǰȱȱȱȬȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǯŘȬŜǯŞȱ Mg ha-‐‑1 y-‐‑1ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Local Markets ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ǯ ¢ȱ£ȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA costs and emissions. Additionally, they can yield a high price per unit and be bet-‐‑ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱŘŖȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŜŝśȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘǯśȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱĴȱȱęȱȱǞŜǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ȱȱě¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻęǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ-‐‑ £ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱ ǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ 9.5 Research Needs ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ be adopted to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱĚ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱǰȱ an active collaboration of ecologists, physiologists, geneticists, engineers, climatolo-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ¡¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯ Impacts of Freshwater Inflow ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱĴǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱĚȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 203 204 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Ȭȱęǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęǲȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ¢ȱŗşşŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢¡ȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱ analyses. Aquaculture Development ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşŞşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱãȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ 9.6 References ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱŚŜŗȬ ŚşŖǯȱȱ¡ǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǭȱǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱȱ ǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱŚśȬśŜǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱę¡ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱŜȬŗŗǰȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱÛ£ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ£ȱȱȱ-‐‑ lantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. ȱŘşŜȱǻśśŝřǼǱȱŗŜşŘȬŗŜşŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱěȱȱȱ-‐‑ cruitment in the North Sea. ȱŚŘŜȱǻŜşŜŝǼǱȱŜŜŗȬŜŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ supply and global sea-‐‑level rise. ȱȱŘȱǻŝǼǱȱŚŞŞȬŚşŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŜŘȱǻřǼǱȱřřşȬřŚřǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻśŖǼǱȱŗşŝŖşȬŗşŝŗŚǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŝşȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱřŞşȬŚŖŘǯȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¢¡ǰȱȱȱęǱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ1 ǻŘŖŖşǼǱȱřŘşȬřŚşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘşȱǻŗȬŚǼǱȱŘŚśȬŘŜŖǯ ě¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯȱ¡¢ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦ ȦȦȦȦǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ-‐‑ al marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. ȱȱȱŗŖȱǻřǼǱȱŘřśȬŘśŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŘŗŖȱǻŘŖŖŗǼǱȱŘŘřȬŘśřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱ story. ȱȱęȱȱŗşȱǻŗǼǱȱŚŝŝȬŚŞŖǯȱ Dehon, D.D. 2010. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȂȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ ǯȦȦȦȬŖŚŘŝŘŖŗŖȬŗŝśŖŚŝȦȦȏǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ trophic mismatch. ȱŚřŖȱǻŝŖŖŘǼǱȱŞŞŗȬŞŞŚǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦę¢Ȧǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ change on marine faunas. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŞȱǻŗŖǼǱȱřŜŗȬřŜŝǯ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ęȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ ǯȦȦȦ ȬęȦǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ, after ¡ȱ¡ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱęȱȱřŖȱǻřǼǱȱŜŘŝȬŜřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ survival. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŜŖȱǻśǼǱȱśŜřȬśŞřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱȱǱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗśŚȱǻřǼǱȱřśŗȬřŝŗǯ Gosling, E. 2003. ȱǱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ-‐‑ ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĴǰȱǰȱ ȱŗŚȱȬŗŝǰȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĵǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱŝȬŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ǯǯ Ȧ££ǯǵƽśǭƽřŝřŚŖǭƽŘŖŗŗǭƽŘ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱŘŝȬřŚǯȱǰȱǱȱȱǻǼǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ-‐‑ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ tems. ¢ȱĴȱşȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŘŞȬŘŚŗǯ 205 206 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱęǱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ management strategies. ȱȱȱȱȱŜŞȱǻŜǼǱȱşŞŚȬşŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱęǱȱȱȱęȱ production and yield. ȱŗŜȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŜŗȬŗŝŜǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯ ǯȱě¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŗȬŗŘǯ ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ ȦŘŖŖŝȦȦŘşŖŝǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞşǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ the American alligator. ȱȱŘşȱǻřǼǱȱşŞŝȬşşŞǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱŘŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŝȬŗŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ-‐‑ ȱŗśȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŜȬŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŚŞȱǻŚȬśǼǱȱŚśşȬŚŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘȱ ȱǯȱȱŘŝşȱǻśřśřǼǱȱŗŖŗŞȬŗŖŘŗǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ£ǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ concentration in a coral reef. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŗȱǻŞǼǱȱŗŝşŖȬŗŝşşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ shell formation. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŞşȱǻřǼǱȱśśśȬśŜŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯǯȦŗȦȦŗŖȦȏŘŖŗŖǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ, ed. ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱŗŚŝȬŗŜŜǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȱĚȱȱęȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŜȬřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ęȱȱ. ¢ǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ¢ȦřŗŚŖȬśŜŝȬŚřřŚȬśŝŘȬśśŗśśŗŗȦřŚŚŘşȦŘŜřŝ ę-‐‑ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ 2ȱ ǱȱĚȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŚȱǻśǼǱȱśŜŜŗǯȱǱŗŖǯŗřŝŗȦǯǯŖŖŖśŜŜŗǯ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱĚ. ȱǰȱǱȱȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱǱȱȱȱȱ analogy. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŘŘȱǻśǼǱȱŜŚŝȬŜśŞǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ Atlantic coastal region. ȱȱŗŚȱǻřǼǱȱŘŗşȬŘřřǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯǯǯȦśȦȦȦŘŖŖşȦƖŘŖŘŖŖşƖŘŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱ ŚŖśȱǻŜŝşŖǼǱȱŗŖŗŝȬŗŖŘŚǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯǯ ȦŘŖŗŖȦŘŖŗŖŖŞŖşȏ£ǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŞǰȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŗŞśŖǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗśȱǻşǼǱȱŘŗŘřȬŘŗřŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘ Ǽǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘŝȱǻǼǱȱŗŗȬŘŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǱȱȱȱ Atlantic perspective. ȱȱ¢ȱŚşȱǻŗȬŚǼǱȱŗŜŝȬŗŞŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱęǯȱǰȱřŖŞȱǻśŝřŖǼǱȱŗşŗŘȬŗşŗśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǵȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŝşȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱŚŖřȬŚŗŝǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ǯȱȱřŗŜȱǻśŞŘşǼǱȱ 1302. ãǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱěȱȱęȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ-‐‑ tation of thermal tolerance. ȱřŗśȱǻśŞŖŞǼǱȱşśȬşŝǯȱ ǰȱǯȬǯǰȱǯȬ ǯȱȱǰȱǯȬǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ěȱȱ¡ȱȱȂȱǯȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŘǼǱȱřŚśȬřśŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱÇ£ǰȱǯȱ°ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŜŜȱǻŝǼǱȱŗśŘŞȮŗśřŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢¡ȱ and the Mississippi River. ȱśŘȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŘşȬŗŚŘǯ 207 208 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱęǰȱǯȱ Ȭǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ Lon-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ east Atlantic. ȱřŖśȱǻśŜşŖǼǱȱŗŜŖşȬŗŜŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ£ȱȱŘŖŗŗǱȱřŘȬřřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ caused by microbiologic agents. ȱ ȱȱŗŖşȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŗŗȬŘŘŖǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ managed systems. In ȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Changeǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ŝşȬŗřŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŞǰȱřŖŖřǲȱǱȱ ŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖřŖŖŘŗřŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŘśȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŚşȬŗŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȬȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŝřȱǻŘǼǱȱ 333-‐‑341. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ. ȱȱęȱ ŘśȱǻŗǼǱȱŞřȬşřǯ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȓǰȱȬ Ĵǰȱǯȱŗǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǵƽśřśǛ ǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǯȱȱřşŖȱǻŜŜśşǼǱȱŚşŝȬśŖŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗşŜŖȬŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŞŘȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŝŝȬŗŞŖǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȬŚśŝȱȱ ȬȬȬȬşŖȬŘǯȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ĴǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯǯȦ ęȦȦŗŖŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŝȱǻŚŖǼǱȱŗŝŘŚŜȬŗŝŘśŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȬ ǰȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŚŘŝȱǻŜşŝŖǼǱȱŗŚśȬŗŚŞǯ ȱǻǯǯȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱŘŖŖŘȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ ǯȦȦŘŖŖŘȦȦǯ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱŘŖŖŜȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȬ-‐‑ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ ǯȦ-‐‑ ȦŗřŗŗŗŚȦĢ ŖŜȬǯǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ. Cedar Key, Ǳȱȱęȱ¡ȱĜǯȱĴǱȦȦęǯǯĚǯȦ ȏ¢ǯ Ȭ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖśȱǻŚŖǼǱȱŗśŚśŘȬŗśŚśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱřŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŘŗȬŘřŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱǻȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŜȱ ǻŗŖǼǱȱŗŝŝŜȬŗŝŞŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ¢¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřśȱǻŜǼǱȱ ŗřŚŗȬŗřśŖǯ 209 Chapter 10 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA COORDINATING LEAD AUTHOR Ge Sun (gesun@fs.fed.us; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Sankar Arumugam (Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina) Peter V. Caldwell (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Paul A. Conrads (US Geological Survey, South Carolina Water Science Center, Raleigh North Carolina) Alan P. Covich (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) James Cruise (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama- Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama) John Feldt (NOAA/NWS/SERFC, Peachtree City, Georgia) Aris P. Georgakakos (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia) Richard T. McNider (Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama) Steven G. McNulty (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Daniel A. Marion (Center for Bottomland Hardwoods Research, USDA Forest Service, Hot Springs, Arkansas) Vasu Misra (Meteorology Department, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida) Todd C. Rasmussen (Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Luigi Romolo (Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Adam Terando (Climate Change Science Center, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina) 210 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗŗȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŚśƖȱȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱęǰȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȁ ȱȂȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ -‐‑ ter shortages due to recurring severe droughts and the increasing levels of consump-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ stresses implied by climate changes are beginning to concern all economic sectors ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱ-‐‑ tions due to climate change have profound impacts to ecosystems and society. The ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ǲȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱǲȱȱǻřǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ management strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change across the southeastern region. Key Findings f ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ǰȱ ȱǰȱĚ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ f ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱ the atmosphere. f ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ f ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ changes in rainfall that either increase rainfall erosivity or decrease vegetative cover protection. f ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Appalachians. 211 212 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES f ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ to climate change. f ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ěǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻȱȱĚǼȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ -‐‑ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȯ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ availability. f ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ irrigated agriculture and bioenergy development, must be carefully evaluated to ¡£ȱȱěȱȱȬęǯ 10.1 Water Resources in the Southeast ȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĚǰȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ More descriptions of climate change in the SE region can be found in Chapter 2 of this ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŞŖŖŖȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱĚǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱřȱȱśǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ 10.2 Key Constraints to Water Resources in the Southeast Changing Climate ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱĴǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱ-‐‑ ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱ£ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Sea Level Rise ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ may alter channel behavior far upstream of the estuaries and coastline. Rising Water Use for Energy Generation ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȃ Ȭ¢ȱ¡ǰȄȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ-‐‑ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖŞȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Increasing Water Use for Irrigation ȱŘŖŖŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱĜȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ measures. In order to maintain a robust agricultural economy and food prices, there is 213 214 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŚŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ Ě ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Changing Land Use and Land Cover ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱhe North Carolina ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱĚȱ Ě ȱě¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ £ȱŘŖŗŗǼ. In the Appa-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ £ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Insufficient Water Storage ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȬĚ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ¡ȱ śŖȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ systems if projected climate changes occur or projections become more certain. Unique Biodiversity ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA Unique Cultures The racial legacy in the SE has left an imprint on educational institutions both from segregation and desegregation, and environmental perceptions. Trying to bridge the ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ African-‐‑American and rural communities, but also the emerging Latin-‐‑American com-‐‑ munities. In addition, there is increasing evidence that the poor and elderly in the SE ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ 10.3 Historical Climate Trends ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱÛȬȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱǻǼȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻǼȱǻȱǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘǼǯȱ Across the region, mean air temperature increased 0.9oȱ ȱŗşŝŖȱȱŘŖŖŞȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱřŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘȱȱȱǼȱȱ ŗśƖȱȱŘŖƖȱȱŗşśŞȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ȱǻŗşŝŞȱȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻŗşŚŞȱȱŗşŝŝǼȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘǯśǚȱȱřǯśǚȱ ȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the SE can be found in Chapter 2. 10.4 Uncertainty in Predicting Future Climate and Hydrologic Impacts ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȂȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱĴȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ £ȱǻȱŘǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱĚ ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǲȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱ2 ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ 215 216 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǻȱȱŝȱȱŗŗȱȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ be uncertain. Similarly, ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱĚǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱCon-‐‑ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ 10.5 Water Resources Impacts of Climate Change ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ Water Supply Ě ȱȱȱŗşŚŖȱȱŗşşşȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŝŖȱǻGroismanȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȃȬȬȄȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱȱŗşşşȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱŘƖȱȱ¢ȱŗƖȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱěȱ ȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ increase 2% for a 1% increase in precipitation. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱĚȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ęȱȱȱȬĴȬȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȁȱ Ȃǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱěȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȬŗǰȱȬŘǰȱ ȬŘǰȱȱȬŗȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱǻřǯŝƖȱ ȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǼȱȱśŖȱȱǻŗŞƖȱȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǼȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖȱ ǻȱŗŖǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱǻȱǀȱŖǯŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŘǯśƖȱȱȱǻȱŗŖǯŗȱȱŗŖǯŘǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŘśǰȱȱěȱ ȱŘŖŘśȱȱŘŖŚśǰȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŚśȱǻȱŗŖǯŗǼȱ 217 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Water Yield (in) 218 Figure 10.1 Predicted Southeast-wide 10-year moving-mean annual water yield. The wide green band represents the range in predicted water yield over the four climate projections (Marion et al. 2012). Trend in water yield -6.4% to -5% -5% to -2.5% -2.5% to 0% 0% to 2.5% 2.5% to 3.6% Figure 10.2 Mean trends predicted for 2010 to 2060 in mean annual water yield, normalized by the 2001 to 2010 mean annual water yield. Hatched area represents locations where the predicted trend in water yield is statistically significant (p < 0.05) (Marion et al. 2012). Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŖǯřǼȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱŗŚƖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŗƖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŖǯřŖȱȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŖǯŚŚȱȱŘŖśŗȱȱŘŖŜŖǯȱȱȱȱȱŖǯŚŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱãã¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ protocols. Low Flows ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱĚ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱǻŗşşşǲȱŘŖŖśǼȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱĚ ȱ ȱŗşŚŖȱȱŗşşşȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȬȱ ǻǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŜŖȱȱşŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŜǯŗƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǻȬŗǰȱȬŘǰȱ ȬŘǰȱȱȬŗǼǲȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Water Quality ȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ 219 220 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 10.3 Mean annual Water Supply Stress Index (a ratio of water demand/water supply) based on four climate projections for (a) Baseline (2001 to 2010), and (b) Future (2051 to 2060) (Marion et al. 2012). Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ȱǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŘśǚȱǻȱŗşşŖǰȱ Ĵ ȱȱȱŗşşŝǼǯȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱĚ ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŖǰȱĴ ȱȱȱŗşşŝǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȬȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱȱȱȱşŗȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŜŘȱȱȱşŗȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻsǼȱ ȱŗşŜŖȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŜŘȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱ ȱŖǯŗŚǚȱȱǰȱȱȱŖǯŖŞǚȱȱŖǯŘşǚȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ecosystems than mean annual Tsȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱsǯȱȱȱşŗȱǰȱŝŗȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱsȱ ȱŗşŜŖȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ mum monthly Tsȱȱȱŝŗȱȱ ȱŖǯŘŖǚȱȱǰȱȱȱŖǯŖŚǚȱȱŖǯřŝǚȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱşŗȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱsȱǻŖǯŘŗǚȱȱŖǯřśǚȱȱǼȱȱ ŘŖŗŗȱȱŘŖŜŖǯȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱs over all sites ȱȱȱ ȱŖǯŘśǚȱȱǯ Soil Erosion and Sedimentation. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱǰȱȱȱ energy of rainfall or the amount and type of vegetation cover resisting erosion. In-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȬěȱ¢ȱȱǻȬǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ amount of rainfall occurring at a given location over a long period of time, and as such ȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ potential changes in future surface erosion related to climate change. In general, the Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŗşşřǰȱǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱŘȱȱǼȱȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱ 221 222 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES studies. This study suggests that large future changes in soil erosion potential concen-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱěȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Aquatic Biota ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ services that are the product of past human actions that have altered the landscape can ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ deposit multiple centimeters of rain in one event. Although much uncertainty remains ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŗŗǼǯ Salinity Intrusion ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱŘǰŖŖŖȱΐȱ-‐‑1ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĚ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱŗȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŖƖȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘśƖǰȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱŘśƖȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŝŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ¡ȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ Climate Change Implications for River Basin Management: A Case Study of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬęǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ęǯȱȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱȱŗşǰŜŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗǰŗŚŖȱȱȱ ȱŘśƖȱȱŚśƖȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ŘǯşȦŖǯŘȱǻȦ Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱǱȱŘǯśȦŘǯŘȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǱȱŗǯŞȦŗǯŚȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻřŜşȱǼȱȱęȱȱǻŘŝŜȱǼȱ¢ȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ŗřŗȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśǰŖŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŖřȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¡ȱǞřŖŖȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǞŝřȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŜŘƖȱȱȱȂȱǯȱ Integrated Water Resources Assessment and Planning Framework. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŖǯŚǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖǯŚǯȱ ȱǻŗşŜŖȬŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱęȱȱȱ-‐‑ line conditions. The analysis clearly suggests that climatic change is already occur-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŖȬŘŖşşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǻŗȱȱ Řȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗŘ¡ŗŘȱ 223 224 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 10.4 Integrated Water Resources Assessment and Planning Framework (Georgakakos et al. 2010 and 2011a). Ǽȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ¢¢ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ£-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ processes aimed at developing consensus on adaptation measures, management strate-‐‑ gies, and performance monitoring indicators. The assessment and planning process is ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Water Resources Assessments. ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŗȱȱŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 225 ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȬȱĚ ȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǻȱȱ.ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǲȱȱǲȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱǲȱǲȱȱ¢ ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǯȱȱŘȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗǯȱ • ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ -‐‑ agement procedures and tools have yet to be adopted and made operational by federal and state agencies. Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin ȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tains across the Piedmont and Southeastern ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱśŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ǻȱŗŖǯŗǯǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ The main stem rivers support hydroelectric, ther-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱ ȱ ȱȱǼǯȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ main stem dams. Many small impoundments ǻǯǯȱǰȱǰȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ęǰȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱĴǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ multimillion dollar recreational opportunities for ȱęȱȱǯȱȱȬ ȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ people throughout the region, especially from metro Atlanta. Additional recreational opportuni-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱĴ-‐‑ hoochee River. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬĚ ȱȱȱȱȱŚŞȱǯȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱ of metro Atlanta, across the Piedmont and onto Continued on next page 226 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Continued from previous page Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Research Reserve. ȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ¢ȱşŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ estuary supports a multimillion dollar production ȱęȱǻ¢ǰȱǰȱǼȱȱęęǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻŗŜȱȱŘŜȱǼȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ high river discharges and are thought to re-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱęȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ food production used by oysters. There have been decades of discus-‐‑ sions, sometimes contentious, among ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ Alabama, the three states that compose ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱ Ǽǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǻ ȱǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱȱȱȱȱȱ federally protected species in middle and ȱǼǰȱȱȱęǯȱ-‐‑ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ supplies for upstream users, especially ȱǰȱȱĜȱ-‐‑ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ optimal salinity ranges for oyster produc-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȬȱ-‐‑ tions of prolonged droughts, high storm Ě ȱȱȱǰȱȱ Ȭȱ Figure 10.1.ACF Map of the Apalachicola-Chattachoochee-Flint ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ Seminole, a main stem impoundment noted for ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ island estuary designated as a National Estuarine River Basin. The basin includes drainage areas in three states with most of the catchment in Georgia. Continued on next page Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 227 Continued from previous page Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin variables that may prove detrimental coastal ęǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱ anthropogenic stresses on these interconnected ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȬ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ity and river discharge. In addition, projected ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¡¢ȱ ȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱǲȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱŗŖǯŘǯǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŗŘśȱ ȱęǰȱřřȱ ȱǰȱřŖȱ¢ęǰȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱǯȱȱȱřŖȱ ęǰȱǰȱȱ¢ęȱǻǼȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ be discovered, such as a previously undescribed species of bass, Micropterus sp., that occurs in the ȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ řŖŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱŘŝŞȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱřřȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ Figure 10.2.ACF Spring Creek historically flowed into Georgia’s Lake Seminole. During recent prolonged droughts, the channel has dried out and formed isolated pools. Photo by: Andrea Fritts, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia-Athens. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ chicola River are federally listed as endangered ǻȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱǼȱǻȱ ŗŖǯřǯǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĜȱ Ě ȱȱȬ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ hosts to complete larval development and dis-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗŖǯŚǯǼǯȱ These species provide important ecosystem ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ feed on suspended micro-‐‑algae, bacteria and ȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ tion, since mussels are among the most sensitive, long-‐‑lived species that complete their life cycles ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ Continued on next page 228 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Continued from previous page Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin they are good bioindicators of increases in con-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ locations. ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱ Ȭęȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ingly challenged to implement long-‐‑term plans ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ sion and collaboration to bring about resolution. Figure 10.3.ACF Striped mussel (Hamotia subangulata), (commonly called shiny rayed pocketbook), is a federally endangered species found in the ACF River Basin. Source: www.discoverlife.org, University of Georgia. Figure 10.4.ACF Life cycle of freshwater mussels. Adult mussels produce small ectoparasitic larvae that attach to the gills of fish. The larvae grow and are dispersed by the fish to complete their growth in sediments. Some mussel species have evolved specialized mantel tissue resembling small fish that undulate. This movement attracts predatory fish closer to the adult mussel and increases chances of the larvae becoming attached to the fish gills. Source: Diagram from Cummings and Graf, 2009. The MUSSEL Project. http://www.musselproject.net/. Funded by The National Science Foundation and USGS. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 229 10.6 Mitigation and Adaptation Options ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻCarlisleȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗŖǯŗǼȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Table 10.1 Potential Adaptation Options for Managing Hydrologic Impact and Risks from Climate Change. Hydrologic Impacts Risks to Ecosystems Adaptation Options ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǲȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǲȱ ȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ tems, socioeconomics, and business ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǲȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǲȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱ ȱǲȱ¢ȱ ǲȱȱ adaptive management. Evapotranspiration increase ¢ȱǲȱ ęǲȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ǲȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ǰȱȱĚ ȱ ǰȱĚ ǲȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱ sedimentation ȱȱǲȱ increase evapotranspiration by ȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱ¢ ȱĚ ȱǲȱ ȱ¢ȱǲȱęȱ ȱǲȱȱȱ capacity ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱĚ ȱȱ ǻ2ȱǰȱ 4ǰȱ¡Ǽȱȱ reservoirs ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǲȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱěȱȱ shading Soil erosion, sedimentation increase ȱ¢ȱǲȱȱ ȱǲȱȱȱȱ ȱ treatment Enhance best management practices ǻǼǲȱȱȱěǲȱ £ȱȱȱȱěȱ from roads to streams Chemical loading increase ȱ¢ȱǲȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱ¢ǲȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱǲȱȱěȬ ȱ ȱ 230 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES A limited number of studies have considered adaptation options that might reduce ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ in future land planning. Current best management practices for reducing nonpoint ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȬȱ past decisions in light of the changing climate, and ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȦȱ ȱȬȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ and adaptive decisions made over time. Such an approach helps identify robust solu-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǻŗşşŝǼȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ development of climate forecasts at seasonal and interannual scales could be useful in ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯ 10.7 References ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŘśǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱǰȱ¢Ǳȱ¢ȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ȭǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ ȱǱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cerned Scientists. November. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŚȱǻŗŘǼǱȱ ŗŝŞřȮŗŝşŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ĵǱȱȱǯȱŘŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȮǰȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱǱȱ ȱȱ Publishers. Dordrecht, The Netherlands. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŚǯŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǯȱşǱȱŚŘŜřȬŚřŖŚǰȱǱŗŖǯśŗşŚȦȬşȬŚŘŜřȬŘŖŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱĚ ȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱşȱǻśǼǱȱŘŜŚȬŘŝŖǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŞşŖȦŗŖŖŖśřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝşȬŘŖŖśȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŞȱǻŚǼǱȱ ŗŗŝŘȬŗŗŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ uncertainty.ȱȱȱȱřřȱǻŚǼǱȱŞŗŝȬŞŘşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǻȱ ǼǯȱŘśȱǻŗřǼǱȱ ŚśŗŗȬŚśŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱęȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŜȬśŗŞŝǰȱŗřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŚȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ er Savannah River Estuary. Conference Proceeding Paper of South Carolina Environmental ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ řśǱȱŗśřşȬŗśśŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȬ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŚŜȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŗśşȬŗŗŝŖǯȱǱȱŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗŝśŘȬŗŜŞŞǯŘŖŗŖǯŖŖŚŞřǯ¡ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱȬŞŘŝǰȱ ȱ¢ȱŗşşŚǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦȬŖŞŘŝȦȬŖŞŘŝǯ ǯȱȱȱȱȱŗŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱs -‐‑ ȱŚŚȱǻşǼǰȱŖşŚŖŚǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜŖŖśŞśśǯ 231 232 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ veloping multimodel combinations. ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŞȱǻŜǼǱȱŘŚŚŝȬŘŚŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ¡ǱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŞŝǼǱȱŘŖŜŞȬŘŖŝŚǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŗŘŜȦ ǯŘŞşǯśŚŞŝǯŘŖŜŞȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ GAR 2011. 22. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŜǼǱȱ ŘŖŚşȬŘŖŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱ 321. ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱŘŘşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢¢ on ȱǰȱŚŗŘȬŚŗřȱǻ¢ǼǱȱřŚȬŚŜǯȱǯȦŗŖǯŗŖŗŜȦǯ¢ǯŘŖŗŗǯŖŚǯŖřŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱ¡Ǳȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱřřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ projections. ȱȱȱŗşȱǻŗŝǼǱȱŚřŘŜȬŚřŚřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ from in situ observations. ȱȱ ¢¢ȱśȱǻŗǼǱȱŜŚȬŞśǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ment strategies for California. Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA. Graduate Thesis. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȂȱȱ ȱ ǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Solutions and Department of Civil Engineering, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering. ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŞȱǻŘǼǱŗŘśȬŗřşǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱ ĵǱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǱȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŚŖǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǻȱǼǯ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŞȱǻşǼǱȱŚŜŗȬŚŜŜǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 32 ǻŗǼǱȱŗŗŝȬŗŘŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗřŚŚǰȱśŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŘȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŗŗŗȬŗŗŘŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǯǯȱǯǰȱǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱǰȱ¢Ǳȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱěȱȱěǰȱĚȱǰȱȱȱ discharges on the coral reefs of Puerto Rico. ȱȱȱȱŘśȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŞşȬŘŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ¢ȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦ ŖŖřŞŘȬŖŗŗȬŗŘŗŚȬ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻśǼǱȱŗŚşşȬŗśŖŜǯǱȱĴǱȦȦ¡ǯǯȦŗŖǯŗŗŝśȦŘŖŗŖřŞŘşǯŗ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱĴ ŘŜȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŘŝȬŘřŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŚŖȬŗşşşǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŜȱǻŜǼǱȱŚŞşȬśŖŗǯ Liu, Y.Q. 2011. A numerical study on hydrological impacts of forest restoration in the southern ȱǯȱ¢¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŘşşȬřŗŚǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŖŘȦǯŗŝŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ-‐‑ ęȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǻȱǼǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǯȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱȱǯȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǯȱȱ Technical Report. ǰȱǯǯǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ States. ¢ȱȱĴȱŘşȱǻŘŚǼǱȱŘŗŞśǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŗŜȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŜŞȬŗŝŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǻȱǼǯ Ĵ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŗǼǱȱ śŖȬŜŝǯȱǱȱŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗŖşśȬŞŜŚşǯŗşşŝǯŖŗřřşǯ¡ǯ 233 234 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǻȱ Ǽǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŖǯȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŝȱǻŜǼǱȱ ŗŖŜśȬŗŖŝŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ man activities. ȱȱǭȱ¢ȱŚşȱǻŝǼǱȱŝřȬŞřǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱ availability in a changing climate. ȱŚřŞȱǻŝŖŜŜǼǱȱřŚŝȬřśŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ£ £ǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱ ǯǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŗşȱǻśŞŜřǼǱȱ śŝřȬśŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱĴǯȱřŜǰȱŗśŝŖŘǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖşŖřŞśŘśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ interpretation. ȱȱ ¢¢ȱŘŗŞȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱŗŘŞȬŗŚŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱǵȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŜȱǻŘǼǱȱřŚŝȬřŜŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ the 21st century. ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱśŜȱǻřǼǱȱŘŘşȬŘřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ Ǳȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ 43 ǻŘǼǱȱŚŚŖȬŚśŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£¢Ȭ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£-‐‑ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱřřŖŗȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱǯ ȂǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ in simulations of 21st-‐‑century climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sci-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻřśǼǱȱŗŚŝŝřȬŗŚŝŝŝǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŝřȦǯŖşŖŝŜŗŖŗŖŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŗŝřȱǻŘȬřǼǱȱŗŘşȬŗśŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŜŗȬŝŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱĚǯȱǰȱȱǱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗřǱȱŘŖŜȬŘŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱ £ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŚśǰȱŗŗŚŖşǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖşŖŖŝŞŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŝǼǱȱŗŚŜŚȬŗŚŞŘǯ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱǭȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ǯ ǯ ȦȦȦȦ¡¢Ȧ ȏ¢ȏȦȏȏȏ ȏ ȏȏĚȏŗŘŘŖŖşǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¡ȱȱȬ ĜȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȬ-‐‑ ę¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŝȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŝŘŖȬŗŝřŘǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗřŜśȬŘŚŞŜǯŘŖŗŖǯŖŘřŝŘǯ¡ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tion. ¢ȱȱĴȱǻřşǼȱŗşŚŖŘǰȱŜǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŘŖśřřŜşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŚŚŗȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱǱȱȬ ȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱǻȱ-‐‑ ǼǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȦȦ ȱǯȱǯȱȬřȬşŖȬŖŖŜǯȱ¢ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱȱǯǯȱǰȱşȬŞŚǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ¢ȱěȱȱ£-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱŗśȱǻŘŖǼǱȱŗȬŘśǯȱ ãã¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ȱǱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŝŝǼǱȱŘŞŚȬŘŞŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ¢¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ£ȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŗǯśȬ¢ȱĚȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ-‐‑ proach. ȱȱŗśȱǻŗŞǼǱȱŗȬŗŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢¢ȱŗŗȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŖŖŝȬŗŖŗŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ £ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱŚŝǰȱŖŖŗŘǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŗŖŘŞř. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ and river temperature research. ¢ȱȱŘŘȱǻŝǼǱȱşŖŘȬşŗŞǯȱǱȱŗŖǯŗŖŖŘȦ¢ǯŜşşŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ climatic and hydrological factors. ¢ȱȱȱśŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŝŚȬŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ stream. ¢ȱȱŝȱǻŗǼǱȱŗşȬřŘǯȱŗşşřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ ¢¢ 12 ǻŜǼǱȱŗřśşȬŗřŝŝǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱ ǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯǯȦ-‐‑ ȦȦȦ¢ȏǯǯȱȱȱŝȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ 235 236 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȬśŚǱȱŚśśȬŚŝŜ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱśŚǱȱŗŖŗȮŗŘřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŗȱǻŘŗǼǱȱŘşŚŚȬŘşśŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ChangeȱŗŗŗȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱşŚśȬşŝŘǯȱȱǰȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦŗŖśŞŚȬŖŗŗȬŖŗŜŝȬşǯ Chapter 11 The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Charles S. Hopkinson (chopkins@uga.edu; Department of Marine Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Alan P. Covich (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Christopher B. Craft (School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Indiana) Kristine DeLong (Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Louisiana) Thomas W. Doyle (United States Geological Survey National Wetlands Research Center) Neal Flanagan (Duke University, Wetland Center, Nicholas School of the Environment Durham, North Carolina) Mary C. Freeman (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Ellen R. Herbert (School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Indiana) Andrew Mehring (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Jacqueline E. Mohan (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Catherine M. Pringle (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Curtis J. Richardson (Duke University, Wetland Center, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, North Carolina) 237 238 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱęǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change. If our grandchildren are to be able to appreciate these natural ecosystems in ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ engineering of the landscape. Key Findings ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱ ȱȱ¢¢ȱǻȱȱ ǼȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǻřǼȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ reefs. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱ¢ȱȱǻ 4Ǽȱȱȱ ¡ȱǻ2Ǽǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ2 concentrations in the atmosphere. f ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ draining the SE coastal plain. The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA f ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ǯȱ f Ȭǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tions of cold temperatures caused by climate change. f ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ rare longleaf pine savannas of the SE. f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ2 emissions ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 2ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱȱȬĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱǯȱěȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱ¡ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ ȱěȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ impact on natural ecosystems during the coming century. This aspect may also have the greatest policy relevance because society has the ability to control or regulate ȱěǰȱȱĚ ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ěȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ study. Available research suggests that future policy and management activities may ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯ 239 240 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 11.1 Background In this chapter, the major ecosystems of the SE and Caribbean region are discussed, ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱę¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȬĴȱǯȱ Not all natural ecosystems of the SE are discussed, only those that are considered to be most vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle as a result of changes in tem-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǻȱŗŗǯŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ assessments of climate change in the SE. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱŗȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǯȱȱŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗǯŘɃȱȱŘǯŘɃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚǯŚɃȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱǻȱȱśǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱĚ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱŖǯŘȱȱȱŘȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ 11.2 Southeastern Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǲȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA Figure 11.1 Maritime forests on some of the few remaining, relatively intact barrier islands of the Southeast, for example on Ossawbaw Island, GA, are vulnerable to climate change through the devastating impact of winds, surge, salt spray, and shoreline erosion from hurricanes and sea level rise. This artistic rendering by Philip Juras (Passing Storm, 2009, oil on canvas) shows remnants of the maritime forest now in the intertidal beach zone. Streams, Rivers, Lakes and Reservoirs ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱĚȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȬȱǻȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǻ¡ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ2ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱĚǼȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ 241 242 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǯȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡-‐‑ ǰȱ¢ȱȬ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱ ȱŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȬȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȬȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱ ¢ȱŗşŞŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŝǰ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȬȱȱǻĴ ȱȱȬĴ ȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱęȱęȱȱǻ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱǻȱ ĚǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱ¡¢ȱ¡¢ǰȱǯȱ¡¢ȱǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ both marine and estuarine habitats as adults and reproduce in coastal rivers along the ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱĚ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȬ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱȱǯȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱǻǯȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ life, are also of particular concern as their southern range, limited by temperature, is ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǲȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ dynamics that have not previously been observed. Currently, many species declines ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǰȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ę¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱĚ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ Ȭ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱęǯȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ loading from agricultural and urban areas may result in algal blooms that alter food ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱǻĴȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱĴȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ Ȭȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ peratures. Non-‐‑native subtropical and tropical species, including many species already ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱǰȱȱǯǼǰȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱǯǼȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱĵ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 243 244 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ¢¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱĚǯ 11.3 Southeastern Savannas ȬȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśƖȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŖǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǻȱŗŗǯŘǼȱęȱ¢-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱ¢ȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşŞŚǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¡ęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǯǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǯǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ¢ȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǯǼȱȱȱ¢ǲȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱǻ£ȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱŘǯŘȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŜśŖȱȱŗşŖśȱȯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱęȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ě ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻĴȱȱǯȱŗşŞŞǼǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ peat moss and dead peat have ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA Figure 11.2 Longleaf pine savanna of the southeastern Coastal Plain. This forest is actively managed through controlled burns on the Fort Stewart Military base in Georgia. Species diversity is particularly high in these ecosystems. While warmer winter temperatures may benefit the longleaf pine ecosystem in the northern range margin, the majority of longleaf pine savannas likely will fare less well due to increasing summertime droughts. (Photograph by Charles Hopkinson.) and burning of drier vegetation and peat, as in other peatland ecosystems throughout ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȂȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ Ěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻ¡ȱ and ǯȱǼȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱĚ and ǯȱ ǼǯȱȱŗŖ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱ ȱȱ¢-‐‑ tem productivity in forests across a range of soil moisture types and found that severe ȱěȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ 245 246 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻĚ-‐‑ ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¤£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ 11.4 Southeastern Freshwater Marshes and Swamps ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ continually isolated or connected via ephemeral streams. Land use changes for urban-‐‑ £ȱȱȱę¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŝǰȱȱŗşşŝǰȱãã¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱǰȱtemperature ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱ and catchment hydrology predicted by global climate models include increasing fre-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěǰȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱǻǯǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ change. The vast amount of carbon stored in the peat soils of the pocosins and Ever-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ¢ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱ2, N2ǰȱȱ 4, depend not ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱĚȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖǰŖŖŖȬȱǻşŞǰŞŚŘȬǼȱ ŗşŞśȱęȱ ȱȱŗȱȱřǯŞȱȱǻŗǯŗȱȱŚǯŘȱȱǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ĴȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱŖǯŘȱȱŗŗȱȱȱƺŘȱǻŚǯŝȱȱŘśŞȱȱȱ-‐‑2Ǽȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǼǰȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŞȱȱŗŜǰŝŞśȱȱǻŚŗǰśŚşȱǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱǻŗŗȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ Carolina Bays ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ěȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻ¢£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Pocosins ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱǯȱȱ¢¢ȱ 247 248 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱŗȱȱȱřȱȱǻǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ řŖŖȱȱǻřřŖǯŝȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱǻŗşşŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ 4ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ2 increased greatly in aerobic soils under drought conditions-‐‑-‐‑a climate ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ 4 release to the atmosphere ȱȱ ȱ2 and N2ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ 4ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ2 release from dryer soils and seasonal Ě¡ȱȱ2ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱǻŗşşŘǼȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱĚ¡ȱ ȱǯȱ Southern Bottomland Swamp Communities ȱȱĴȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ Ěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱ Ěȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱ ǼǰȱȱȱǻǯȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ęȱȱĚǯȱ ȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱěȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Everglades The successional dynamics of the Everglades are mainly controlled by the interaction of ȱĴȱǻȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱȱĚȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǰȱspp.ȱǼȱȱǻȱ ŗŗǯřǼȱ ȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢Ȭ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ more pronounced physiological limitations to inundation depth, duration, or both, and ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǰȱǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȬȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¡£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Figure 11.3 Nymphaea open water slough surrounded by Sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) in the central Everglades. The peat depths are 1.8 m at this site. Wetland prairies such as these are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle. While these systems are currently strong carbon sinks, under a warmer and drier climate they could become carbon sources emitting powerful greenhouse gases such as CH4, in addition to CO2. (Photograph by Curtis J. Richardson.) 249 250 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 11.5 Southeastern Tidal Marshes and Swamps ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ that drain to the coast. The magnitude of ecosystem services provided by these sys-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ęǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ.ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬ induced degradation of natural systems, are predicted to disappear at an accelerat-‐‑ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ -‐‑ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱĚ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ ȱǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱ ŗŗǯŚǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǅŖǯŘȱȦ ¢ǼȱȱȱȱŚǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ et al. 2002, Mudd et al.ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘǯśȱȦ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱřȱȦ¢ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻşǯśȱȦ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ to accelerate SLR in the coming century resulting in a sea level increase of up to 2 m or ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻȱȱŘǼǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ et al.ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ Richardson et al.ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŗşŞşǰȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ et al. 2009, ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻĴ¢ et al.ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱě ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱǻ et al.ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȮȱȱ ǻǼȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ-‐‑ ȱŘȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ et al.ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ing storm energy and their loss leads to the increased vulnerability of human structures ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱ Climate models predict greater interannual variability in temperature and precipita-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ coast. Changes in precipitation regimes, storms and anthropogenic alterations of fresh-‐‑ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ Figure 11.4 Tidal salt water marshes and swamps, such as this Spartina alterniflora marsh near Sapelo Island, GA, are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. If they are unable to build in elevation as rapidly as sea level rises, they will revert to open-water areas. Salt marshes are critical habitats for most of the commercial fisheries of the SE USA. (Photograph by Christopher Craft.) 251 252 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ganic carbon by stimulating microbial decomposition, especially sulfate reduction, and ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻ2ȱȱ 4Ǽǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱęǰȱęǰȱȱȱǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ěȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ et al. 1999, Giblin ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻŚŖȱȱŜŖȱȱ ȱȱȱǼǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǻ et al. 2004, Langley ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱřȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŚȱǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ munities respond to climate change. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȬěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ£ǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȃ ȱǰȄȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱěȱȱ ȱŘśŖǰŖŖŖȱȱǻ et al. 2004, Silliman ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗŗǯśǼǯȱ ȱȱŞŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ěȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱĴǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ Ǽǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱ¢ǲȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱǼǯȱȱ ȱ and feeding activities destroy root systems and depress soil accretion leading to ero-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱřŖŖȱȱŝŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ŘǚȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ storm events may aid in the spread of invasive propagules, and repeated hurricane ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ terparts, for instance ȱ over ǯȱ¡ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ Figure 11.5 Tidal freshwater forest along the Satilla River in coastal Georgia. These forests are particularly vulnerable to salt water intrusion that occurs with sea level rise. Vegetation likely will be replaced by salt tolerant marsh species, such as Zizaniopsis sp. During the transition these environments can emit high rates of greenhouse gases, including CO2 and CH4. (Photograph by Christopher Craft.) 253 254 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ aggressive invasive species, ȱ¡ and ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşŞŗȱȱŗşŞśǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŗşŞŜǰȱ ȱǯȱŗşŞŜǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Sea level rise is facilitating mangrove encroachment on the salt marsh dominant species ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ et al. 2010, Krauss ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Though there is some evidence that mangroves may build elevation in response to SLR ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ et al. ŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱęȱǻǯǯǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱęǼȱȱ recreational activities. ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ Craft ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱ ęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ Many of these species rely on the preservation of an entire estuarine landscape because ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǼȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱĴ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ et al. 2010, van de Pol ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Recent model simulations suggest the combined impacts of accelerated SLR and ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ et al. 2009, ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ et al. 2009, Geselbracht ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ rivers to the ocean. 11.6 Coral Reefs of the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŗŗǯŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǼǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǽǲȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȂȱǼǲȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ Figure 11.6 Location of coral reefs in the SE USA including Flower Garden Banks (FGB), Florida Middle Grounds (FMG), Pulley Ridge (PR), Dry Tortugas (DT), Florida Keys (FK), Biscayne (B), southeast Florida reefs (SEFL), Gray’s Reef (GR), Navassa Island (NI), Puerto Rico (PRR), and US Virgin Islands (USVI). Orange areas are coral reefs from ReefBase (http://reefgis.reefbase.org/). 255 256 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŗŖƖȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ ȱŘŗƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗşŝŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱşŖƖȱǻȱȱ ȱ ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ and ǯȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱŞŘȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȬȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱěȱȱȱę-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱěǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱŗşŞřǰȱşřƖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŞŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȬȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȬȱǰȱ Ȭȱǰȱ Ȭ ȱǰȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ ȬȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ There is active investigation and research of climate change impact on corals and ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȂȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ£ȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ£¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ ŗşŝřǰȱȱȱȱŗşŝŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ¢Ǽǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşŝŝǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŝŖȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǻřȱŚȱ¢Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśǯȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşŖƖȱ¢ȱǻÇȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ altering the habitat, increasing turbidity, and increasing nutrient concentrations from ȱěȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱǰȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǲȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱęȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱȱǲȱǲȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŖǯřȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱ ȱȬȮȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯĴȱŘŖŖřǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱŘŖŖŜǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗst ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱ£ȱȱȬ¤£ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ 11.7 Summary ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ deposition. 257 258 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱ ǰȱ 4 and N2ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱęȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢Ȭȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĴȱȱęǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ £ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ 4ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ2 and N2ȱȱ dry conditions. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ2ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ2ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱ ¢ȱǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ-‐‑ tation rates and their adjacency to upland areas. ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ regions of the SE. ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱǯȱěȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ damage. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ the reef, especially so if the reef has limited ability to build vertical elevation. In addi-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ can degrade these environments. 11.8 References ȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ[ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱãǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŚŞȱǻřǼǱȱřŗŝȬřřŝǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŗǼǱȱřřȬŚřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ lism. ȱ¢ȱŗşȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŖŘȬŘŗřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ Ě¡ȱȱȱǱȱȱŘȬ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŞȱǻŘǼǱȱŚŘřȬŚřŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. ȱȱŞŗȱǻŘǼǱȱŗŜşȬŗşřǯȱ Ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȬȱ ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰ eds. M.G. ȱȱǯ ǯȱǰȱȱŜǯȱǱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱřŘŝȱǻśşŜŚǼǱȱŚśŚȬŚśŞǯȱ 259 260 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱ-‐‑ ment supply and global sea-‐‑level rise. ȱȱŘȱǻŝǼǱȱŚŞŞȬŚşŗǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǯȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱȱȱǻ2ȱȱ 4Ǽȱ in southern peatlands. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŚȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŗŖŞşȬŗŖşşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŜȱǻŚǼǱȱŞŞşȬşŗŜǯ ĴǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. ȱȱȱřśȱǻŘǼǱȱŜřřȬŜŚśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŚŘśȱǻŜşśŜǼǱȱřŜśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŘşȱǻśşŞşǼǱȱřŘŘȬřŘśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ resilience to bleaching. ȱȱŚȱǻŝǼǱȱŜřŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȬǱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱřşŝȬŚŚŞǯȱǰȱȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱǻŝǼǱȱ ŗśŘŞȬŗśřŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȬ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ řŗȱǻŘǼǱȱŜŘŗȬŜřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡Ǳȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ed States. ȱ¢ȱŗŜǱȱŗŖŘŚȬŗŖřśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Carolina coastal plain forest across a hydrology gradient. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŜŝȬŝŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱȱǱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱǱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱŞŗȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱşřȬŗřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȂ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ pocene. ȱřřśȱǻŜŖŜŞǼǱȱśşřȬśşŜǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŘȱǻřǼǱȱŗŘŘŖȬŗŘřŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱěȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŝȱǻŘǼǱȱŝřȬŝŞǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ǱȱClimate ChangeȱŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŚśȬŜśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŚŜȱǻśǼǱȱŗŖřŜȬŗŖŚŞǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ 4ǰȱ2, and N2ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱǰȱǭȱȱ ȱŘŘřȱǻŗǼǱȱŘśřȬŘŜśǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşŞşǯȱȱȱȬȱǱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ sippi Delta. ȱȱŗŝȱǻřǼǱȱŘŚŗȬŘśŝǯ ȂǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ Reef. ȱřŘřȱǻśşŗŖǼǱȱŗŗŜȬŗŗşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ££ǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ siana nutria harvests. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŗřřȬŗŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŘřŚşȬŘřŜŖǯ £ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱȬ¤£ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱĚȱȱȱěȱȱěȱȱ Ǳȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱŗŘŜȬŗŜŖǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ in response to accelerated sea-‐‑level rise. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱşŞȱǻŘśǼǱȱŗŚŘŗŞȬŗŚŘŘřǯ Doyle, T. 2009. ȱĚȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ-‐‑ linaǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ agementȱŘśşȱǻŚǼǱȱŝŝŖȬŝŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ¡ǱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŞŝǼǱȱŘŖŜŞȬŘŖŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱȱȱ ClimateȱŗşȱǻŗŘǼǱȱŘşřśȬŘşśŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ǯȱ ŚřŜȱǻŝŖśŗǼǱȱŜŞŜȬŜŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŗǼǱȱŝŗȬŞŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȂǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱŗȱǻřǼǱȱŗŜśȬŗŜşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ£Ȭ££ǰȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ£ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ urban region. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗśȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęǱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ2ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱŘŘȱǻŚǼǱȱřŜȬŚŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱĵ. ȱ¢ȱśŜȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŘŗşŜȬŘŘŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱęǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŚǼǱȱśŞŗȬŜŗřǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŚřȱǻŗǼǱȱśȬŗŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢Ȭȱȱ of migratory faunal depletion caused by dams. ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřśȱ ǻ¢ǼǱȱŘśśȬŘŜŜǯ 261 262 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ÇȬǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢£ȱ¢ǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱǱȱȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱ the paradigm. Climatic ChangeȱŗŖŜȱǻŗǼǱȱŝȬŘşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ecosystems. ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗȱǻ¢ǼǱȱŗŗŝȬŗŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŝȱǻŗǼǱȱřśȬśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ nitrogen losses from an oligohaline estuarine sediment. ȱȱȱřřȱǻśǼǱȱŗŖśŚȬŗŖŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŞǼǱȱŞŚşȬŞŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŗřǰȱŖŚŖŘşǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝŖŖŚŚŗşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱŘŘȱǻŚǼǱȱŚŞȬśşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŗşşŜȮŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŗřǰȱŗŖŖřŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝŖŖŚŜŘşǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱěȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ Coastal Plain streams in Georgia. ȱȱȱ¢ȱřŗȱǻŚǼǱȱŗŘŜŜȬŗŘŝŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻǱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘřȱǻřǼǱȱŚşŚȬśŖŜǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ-‐‑ istics common to conservation practices. ȱȱȱȱŚŞȱǻŚǼǱȱŗřŝŝȬŗřŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ on coastal dune ecosystems in open ocean islands. ȱȱ¢ȱŗŜǱŗŞŜŖȬŗŞŜşǯȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗřŜśȬŘŚŞŜǯŘŖŗŖǯŖŘŗŜŞǯ¡ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ geon ȱ¡¢ȱ¡¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ segments. ȱȱşȱǻśǼǱȱŗŗŗŗȬŗŗŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ change for invasive species. ȱ¢ȱŘŘȱǻřǼǱȱśřŚȬśŚřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱŗşřŝȱȱŗşşŜȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘȱǻřǼǱȱŘŗśǯ ȂǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŘśǰȱ ŘŖŖŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖşŖŖřŝŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ǵȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŗřǰȱŖşŖŖŘǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝŖŖŚŘŚŝǯ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱęǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱȱřŗŞȱǻśŞśŝǼǱȱŗŝřŝȬŗŝŚŘǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱǱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ coral and staghorn coral. ȱȱŝŗȱǻŞşǼǱȱŘŜŞśŘȬŘŜŞŜŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯ ǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ thermal tolerance shaped by local adaptation of photosymbionts. ȱȱȱŘȱǻŘǼǱȱ ŗŗŜȬŗŘŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ȭǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ãǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱęǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ and the resilience of coral reefs. ȱřŖŗȱǻśŜřśǼǱȱşŘşȬşřřǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŝŚşȬŞŚŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Climate Changeǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȬȱǯȱȱȱŗȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŝŜřȬŝŜŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŝŝǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ reef corals. ȱ¢ȱŚřȱǻřǼǱȱŘŖŗȬŘŖŞǯ ¤£ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřśǰȱŘřŚŖŗǲȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞŖřśŜŞřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ChangeȱŘȱǻŝǼǱȱśřŖȬśřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŞȱǻşǼǱȱŚŜŗȬŚŜŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ America. ȱȱŞȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŗřȬŘŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŞȱ ǻŚǼǱȱşŞŝȬşşřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱĚ productivity and the response of coastal marshes to global change. ȱȱ¢ȱŗśȱ ǻŞǼǱȱŗşŞŘȬŗşŞşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȂǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level. ¢ȱȱĴ řŝǰȱŘřŚŖŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŚśŚŞşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Coast and their climate controls. ȱȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŚŝşȬŚŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȮȱŘǯ 263 264 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ-‐‑ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȦȬȱ¢ȱ gradients. ȱŘşȱǻŘǼǱȱśŖśȬśŗşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗśȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŘşȬŜřŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ sity enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-‐‑level rise. ȱŗŜŚȱǻŘǼǱȱśŚśȬśśřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱřǯřǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱřśȬŞŖǯȱǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ2 stimu-‐‑ lates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-‐‑level rise. ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻŗśǼǱȱŜŗŞŘȬŜŗŞŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ2 levels limited by nitrogen-‐‑induced plant species shift. ȱŚŜŜȱǻŝřŖŘǼǱȱşŜȬşşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşŞŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşȱǻŗǼǱȱřŝŗȬřşřǯ £ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǱȱȱȱȱȮ ¢ǵȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŚǼǱȱŝśŖȬŝśşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśşȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŞśȬŜşŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱŘşȱǻřǼǱȱŞŘŜȬŞřŜǯ ǰȱtǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ Ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ 31 ǻŜǼǱȱŗŖŘřȬŗŖřŘǯ £ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęǯȱȱȱŘşȱǻřǼǱȱŝŚşȬŝśŞǯ Ĵ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱȬĴ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŝǼǱȱŗŘřŘȬŗŘśřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȬǯȱȱȱȱŘȱǻŞǼǱȱŜŘřȬŜŘŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ biotic controls on change in soil elevation. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗŜȱǻśǼǱȱśŚśȬśśŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȬȱǵȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱǻŗǼǱȱ ŜśȬŝřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŘşȱǻǼǱȱşȬŗŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ based on GCM and regional model simulations. Climatic ChangeȱŜŖȱǻŗǼǱȱŝȬřśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ dictions. In ȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱŗȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ, ed. S. Solomin, D. ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱǰȱ ȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱěȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŖŘȱǻŘǼǱȱŘśŝȬŘŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘśȱǻřǼǱȱŚŗŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȦȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ interpretation. ȱȱ ¢¢ȱŘŗŞȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱŗŘŞȬŗŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱǯǯȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱśşȱǻřǼǱȱřŞşȬŚŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŞřȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŘŞŜşȬŘŞŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱęȱȱ ǱȱȱȱȱȬĚȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǯǯȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŚȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱśŝśȬśşŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ tion, sea-‐‑level rise, and biomass production on near-‐‑surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation. ǰȱȱȱȱȱŞŘȱǻřǼǱȱřŝŝȬřŞşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱ the IPCC regional assessment of vulnerability for North America. ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŗŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŖȬŗśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȬ ǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŗşşŝǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱŗŗȱǻŞǼǱȱşŚşȬşŝŖǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşŝřǯȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱŝȬŗŗśǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱęǱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ-‐‑ trusion and altered hydrology. ȱȱȱřŚȱǻŗǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ǳȱȱȱ-‐‑ pacts. In ȱ ȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱŗśřȬŘŜŜǯȱ ǰȱȱǱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱşȱǻŗǼǱȱŜşȬŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 265 266 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱřŗśȬřśŜǯȱǰȱȱǱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱşŖȮ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱŞřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱǰȱǱȱȱǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱȬ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ ǯȦ Ȧ ¢ ȦŗŖȦ ǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ-‐‑ ǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯȱǱȱŘŞȱȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŚŖşȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗŝřşȬŗŝŚśǯ ęǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱȱřřřȱǻŜŖŚŗǼǱȱŚŗŞȬŚŘŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱȱȱ 21 ǻŘǼǱȱŚŖřȬŚŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŘřȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŜŚȬŗŝřǯ ĴǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŚȱǻŚǼǱȱŞŗřȬŞŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ management implications of climate change for the Everglades. ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŘşȱǻŚǼǱȱŗśŗŖȬŗśŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ Ȭȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ods, and models. ȱ¢ȱŗŜŘȱǻŘǼǱȱřŗŗȬřŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ controls on N2ȱȱ 4 ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Prairie Pothole region. ȱŗśśȱǻřȬŚǼǱȱřŖŞȬřŗşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱȱ ŚŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŖşȬŗŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ mangrove ȱǱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱřŚȱǻŚǼǱȱ ŞŘŚȬŞřŖǯ ĴǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞŞǯȱěȱȱęȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ in longleaf pine forests. ȱŝŜȱǻřǼǱȱřśřȬřŜřǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ £ȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ics by dams and global biodiversity implications. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻŗŚǼǱȱśŝřŘȬśŝřŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ and its relevance to interannual variability of trace atmospheric greenhouse gases. ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗŗǰȱŖŜřŖŗǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖśŖŖŜŚśśǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ¢£ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŘȱǻŗŚǼǱȱŘŜŞşȬŘŜşŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cies. ȱ¢ȱŘŘȱǻřǼǱȱśŘŗȬśřřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱřŗśȱ ǻśŞŗŖǼǱȱřŜŞȬřŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŗŜȱǻśŞŘśǼǱȱŝŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ2ȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ2ȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗŗȱǻřǼǱȱřŜşȬřŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¡Ǳȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱ Springer. ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĵȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱŗŞşȬŘŖŘǯȱ¢ǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱěǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǰȱȱǭȱǱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱ Copenhagen. ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǵȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ 13 ǻŗŗǼǱȱŚřŞȬŚŚřǯ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ ȬǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŗȱǻǼǱȱřŖŞȬřŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŜȱǻŚǼǱȱśŘřȬśřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱŗŗŘȱǻŘǼǱȱřśŜȬřŜŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱŗŞȱǻŚǼǱȱŜŘŖȬŜŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ 4Ƹȱȱ¢ǰȱęǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŘŗȬřŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ America. ¢ȱȱŗŗȱǻŞǼǱȱŗŖŚřȬŗŖŜŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ bogs of the southern Appalachian Mountains. ȱȱȱřŖȱǻŚǼǱȱŚŗŝȬŚŘŚǯ ĴǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŗŘŝȱǻřǼǱȱřŖŗȬřŖşǯ Ĵǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱǯȱȱŘŜȱǻŗŗǼǱȱŜȬŗśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱĵǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŞǱȱŜȬŗřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱĴ řŚǰȱŘřŞŗŖǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝŖřŗŜşŚǯ 267 268 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞŗǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¡Ǳȱȱȱ Present Distribution. ȱȱȱȱŘŚȱǻǼǱȱŗŗśȬŗřŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞśǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŞȱ ǻǼǱȱŗŘşȬŗŚŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞŜǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ£ȱ, ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱŘşȱǻǼǱȱŘŝȬřŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱȱȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȬěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŗŖȱǻśŝśśǼǱȱŗŞŖřȬŗŞŖŜǯ Ĵ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱ ŘŖŖŘǯȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ North Carolina coastal plain cropland. ȱȱȱȱȱŘŝȱǻŗřǼǱȱŗřŝŝȬŗřŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǱȱŗǯȱȱȱ ¡ǯȱClimate Change ŜşȱǻŗǼǱȱŝȬŘśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱěȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱřŖȱǻŘǼǱȱ ŘŗŚȬŘŘśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ£ȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŜȱǻřǼǱȱŘŚŘȬŘŜŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǻȱȱǼȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŜǼǱȱŗŖşŚȬŗŗŖŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱǰȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱŞŜȱǻŚŞǼǱȱŚşŝȬśŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱĚȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱŘŞȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŝȬŘŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱŗşǱȱŗŖŘśȬŗŖŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȮȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ŗśȱǻřǼǱȱŗŖřśȬŗŖŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ęȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŝȱǻśǼǱȱŝŚŞśȬŝśŗşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ £ȬǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȱřřȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗŘŝşȬŗŘŞşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱĴȱřřǰȱŗŘŝŖŚǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜŖŘŜŞşŚǯ ȱǻȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȬǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱǰȱ¢Ǳȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱěȱȱ¡¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȂȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŚŚȱǻřǼǱȱŝŚŘȬŝśřǯȱ ȱȱǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĜǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǵȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŚŝȱǻŚǼǱȱŝŘŖȬŝřŖǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻśŗǼǱȱŘŗśŘŝȬŘŗśřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ence and CRR Qld Pty Ltd. ǰȱǯǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱęȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱřȱǻŘǼǱȱ ŘŜŘȬŘŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱ ȬǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȬ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěȬǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱǀřśŖȱȱ2. ȱȱȱśŞȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŗŚŘŞȬŗŚřŜǯ ãã¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ȱǱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŝŝǼǱȱŘŞŚȬŘŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱǱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȦȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞŚǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱśśǻřǼǱȱŗŜřȬŗŝşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ£ǰȱǰȱȱȱ£-‐‑ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ȱŚşŚȱǻŗȬřǼǱȱśȬŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱŗŖȱǻŞǼǱȱ 1229-‐‑1242. ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱǼȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻřǼǱȱśśŘȬśŜśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ties. ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱřřŜȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŞȬřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŖşȱǻśŝŚŘǼǱȱŗŞŚŚȬŗŞŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĴǯȱ ȱȱȱřřȱǻŚǼǱȱşŞśȬŗŖŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ -‐‑ ter stoichiometry of terminal metabolic products, sulfate, and dissolved organic carbon and ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ¢ȱŝŝȱǻřǼǱȱřŝśȬŚŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱĴȱ £ȱ ȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱŗŖŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŗřśȬŗśŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 2005ǯȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ Research Centre. ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ Ǳȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ¡ǯȱ Climatic ChangeȱŗŖŝȱǻŗǼǱȱśşȬŞŖǯ 269 270 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŗşşŘȬŘŖŖśǯȱ-‐‑ ȱřŗȱǻŗǼǱȱŞȬŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǰȱŘřȬřŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱ ǲȱ£Ǽȱȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱŝŗȱǻřǼǱȱŘřşȬŘŚŚǯ Chapter 12 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA LEAD AUTHOR Kenneth L. Mitchell (mitchell.ken@epa.gov; US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Marilyn Brown (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia) Ryan Brown (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Diana Burk (Southface Institute, Atlanta, Georgia) Dennis Creech (Southface, Atlanta, Georgia) Jeffrey S. Gaffney (University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Arkansas) Garry P. Garrett (Southern States Energy Board, Norcross, Georgia) Daniel Garver (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Stephen A. Smith (Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Knoxville, Tennessee) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) 271 272 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Key Findings f ȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘśƖȱȱȱȱ2 emissions, ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȬȱ2 than any other region of the National Climate Assessment. The largest source of emissions is generation ȱ¢ȱǻŚŗƖǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻřśƖǼǯȱ f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tration in soils and plant biomass. The average annual carbon storage in natural ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ Ŗǯřȱ ǰȱ ŜŖƖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ development pressures is a critical issue for climate change mitigation in the SE. f ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬęȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ¡ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ in part due to a provision of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ f ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ĝ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭěȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ there are several SE states that lead in energy conservation for the region and ȱǯȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 11 states for total numbers of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design projects. f Many corporations and in the SE are developing and instituting sustainability plans that include provisions to reduce their overall direct and indirect impacts ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ 12.1 Definitions Climate change mitigation refers to activities that avoid or decrease the release of ȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱĚ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ purposes of this chapter, the Southeast is comprised of Louisiana, Alabama, Missis-‐‑ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ presented are focused on the 11 continental states. 12.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in the Southeast ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŞŗȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱŘśƖȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱǻ2ǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯŗǼǯ Greenhouse Gas Emissions ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǰŚŚŚȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱ2ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŚŗƖȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻřśƖǼȱȱȱȱ ǻŗŞƖǼȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ A more ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Among the southeastern states, all but Louisiana produce the greatest share of their ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘřŚȱȱ2 ȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯŘǼǯȱ Regional Trajectory for GHG Emissions ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȯǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ their state, including an inventory of emissions and projections of emissions into the ǰȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȱŘŖŘŖȱȱŘŖřŖȱǯȱȂȱŗşşŝȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ2 emission ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȬęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ 4Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ2e, a measure used ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ2ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ 273 274 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Figure 12.1 Total CO2 emissions from combustion by sector by National Climate Assessment region (2009). ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŗŘǯŗȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ emissions estimates. The source document for each state should be consulted to evalu-‐‑ ȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ Carbon Sinks ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǽȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱ2Ȧ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗȱȱ2Ȧ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗȱȱ2ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŘȱȱ2 ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱřȱȱ2 after year three, and so on, until it reaches some internal satu-‐‑ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA Figure 12.2 Total CO2 emissions from combustion by sector in Southeast USA. ȱŘŖŖŝȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŘǯŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŘǯřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘśƖȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ high level of crop production. ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŚŝƖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŘǯŘȱȱŗŘǯřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ 275 276 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Table 12.1 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections (1990-2030). MMtCO2e 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŗşşŖǼ* ŜśǯŞȱ ŞŜǯŞȱǻřŘƖǼ ŞśǯŚȱǻřŖƖǼ şřǯśȱǻŚŘƖǼ 101.3 ǻśŚƖǼ ŗŖŝǯśȱ ǻŜřƖǼ 114.2 ǻŝŚƖǼ Ȧ ŘŚŞǯŞȱ řŗśǯŖȱ ǻŘŝƖǼȱ řřŜǯŜȱ ǻřśƖǼ řŜŘǯŜȱ ǻŚŜƖǼ Ȧ 424.9 ǻŝŗƖǼ ŚŜřǯřȱ ǻŞŜƖǼ Ȧ ¢ ŗřŜǯŝȱ ŗŜśǯşȱ ǻŘŗƖǼ ŗŞřǯŗȱ ǻřŚƖǼ ŗşŗǯŜȱ ǻŚŖƖǼ ŘŖśǯŗȱ ǻśŖƖǼ Řŗŝǯŝȱ ǻśşƖǼ 232.3 ǻŝŖƖǼ ŘŚŝǯŝȱ ǻŞŗƖǼ North Carolina ŗřŜȱ ŗŞŖȱǻřřƖǼ ŗşŘȱǻŚŘƖǼ ŘŗŚȱǻśŞƖǼ Ȧ ŘśŜȱǻŞŞƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ South Carolina ŜŝǯŘȱ ŞŝǯŞȱǻřŗƖǼ şřǯśȱǻřşƖǼ 102.2 ǻśŘƖǼ Ȧ ŗŘśǯŚȱ ǻŞŝƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ ŗŜŘǯŜřȱ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ ŘŘşǯŞŚȱ ǻŚŗƖǼ Ȧ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŗşşŖǼ Řŝǯřȱ ŜŜǯŖȱ ǻŗŚŗƖǼ ŜŚǯŜȱ ǻŗřŜƖǼ ŝŘǯŜȱ ǻŗŜŜƖǼ ŞŖǯŚȱ ǻŗşŚƖǼ ŞŜǯŜȱ ǻŘŗŝƖǼ 93.4 ǻŘŚŘƖǼ Ȧ 230.9 ŘŞŞǯřȱ ǻŘśƖǼȱ 309.4 ǻřŚƖǼ řřśǯřȱ ǻŚśƖǼ Ȧ řşŝǯŞȱ ǻŝŘƖǼ ŚřŜǯŘȱ ǻŞşƖǼ Ȧ ¢ ŗŘŜǯŞȱ ŗśŞǯŘȱ ǻŘśƖǼȱ ŗŝśǯśȱ ǻřŞƖǼ ŗŞŚǯŖȱ ǻŚśƖǼ ŗşŝǯŜȱ ǻśŜƖǼ 210.1 ǻŜŜƖǼ ŘŘŚǯŞȱ ǻŝŝƖǼ 240.2 ǻŞşƖǼ North Carolina 112 ŗśŜȱǻřşƖǼ ŗŜşȱǻśŖƖǼ ŗşŗȱǻŝŖƖǼ Ȧ ŘřŘȱǻŗŖŜƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ South Carolina 34.0 śŜǯŞǻŜŝƖǼ ŜŘǯřȱǻŞřƖǼ ŝŗǯŖȱ ǻŗŖşƖǼ Ȧ 94.1 ǻŗŝŝƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ * ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǯȱŘȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȦȱȮȱȱ ǱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ Strait et al. 2010 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA Table 12.2 Total Terrestrial Carbon (C) Storage in the Southeast. State Soil Organic C Biomass C Total Terrestrial C Forest Crop* Pasture* Tg C Tg C Tg C Tg C Tg C Alabama śřś ŚŞş 1.3 1.3 ŗǰŖŘŝ ŞŗŚ ŚŞŘ 22 2.9 1,321 řǰśŖŚ ŘśŘ 0.3 Ŗǯŝ řǰŝśŝ Georgia 1,232 śŗŚ řǯŝ ŗǯŜ ŗǰŝśŗ Louisiana 1,100 řŝŜ Şǯŝ Ŗǯŝ ŗǰŚŞś Śśŝ ŚśŖ ŝ 1.3 şŗś North Carolina ŗǰŝŜŗ śŗŝ ŝǯŚ ŗǯŞ ŘǰŘŞŝ South Carolina ŞŞŞ ŘŜŘ 1.9 Ŗǯŝ ŗǰŗśř Tenessee ŚŖŞ řŞş śǯŘ Śǯŝ ŞŖŝ śŗŜ Śśś Ŝǯř 3.2 şŞŗ 11,215 4,186 63.8 18.9 15,483.7 Mississippi Total * ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗşŞŖǰȱȱŗşŝŝǰȱȱŗşşśǼǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the NCA SE could be located. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯřǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱǰȱȱƽȱȬǲȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ-‐‑ tions in precipitation and drought in the region. The mean regional NEP is about 0.3 ȱȱȱǻȱȱǼȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯřǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ 277 278 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Table 12.3 Annual Terrestrial Biomass C Sinks in the Southeast. State Biomass C (Tg C/year) Forest Crop Total Terrestrial C as Biomass (Tg C/year) Pasture Tg C Tg C Tg C Tg C Alabama Şǯŝ 1.3 1.3 11.3 Ŝǯś 22 2.9 31.4 śǯŚ 0.3 Ŗǯŝ ŜǯŚ Georgia 11 řǯŝ ŗǯŜ ŗŜǯř Louisiana śǯş Şǯŝ Ŗǯŝ ŗśǯř Mississippi ŝǯŞ ŝ 1.3 ŗŜǯŗ North Carolina Şǯś ŝǯŚ ŗǯŞ ŗŝǯŝ South Carolina řǯŝ 1.9 Ŗǯŝ Ŝǯř Tenessee 4.3 śǯŘ Śǯŝ 14.2 Ŝǯř Ŝǯř 3.2 ŗśǯŞ Total 68.1 63.8 18.9 150.8 12.3 GHG Emission Reduction Activities ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ¢ȱĜȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ Ĝȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ clean energy policy and technology solutions that deliver important environmental and ȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Transportation ȱȱȱȱŚȱǻ¢Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ řśƖȱȱȬȱ2 emissions. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA Figure 12.3 Mean annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the Southeastern USA for the period 2001 to 2006. Units are gCm-2 yr-1. Positive values indicate carbon release, and negative values indicate carbon uptake (croplands, urban areas, water bodies, and non-vegetated areas excluded). ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȂȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱĜȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱęĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱşȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ2ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ 279 280 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Case Study: Arkansas Clean Cities Coalition ȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȇȱǰȱ-‐‑ ronmental, and energy security by supporting local actions to reduce petroleum consumption ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ participate in the program. ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Cities Coalition is to advance the energy, eco-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ through government-‐‑industry partnerships that contribute to the reduction of petroleum con-‐‑ sumption in the transportation sector. ȱǱ ǱȱŘǰşŗŗǰŖŚś Ǳȱśřǰŗŝşȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱ ǱȱȱŘśǰȱŗşşśȱȱ ȱȱǱ • ȱȱǻŘŖȱȱǼǱȱśȱ • ȱȱǱȱŜ • ȱȱǻŞśǼǱȱŘŖ • ȱǱȱś • ȱǱȱŚş ĴǱȦȦ ŗǯǯ¢ǯȦȦȱĴǱȦȦ-‐‑ ¢ǯȦȬȬǯ¡ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ¢ǯȦȦȦ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȬȄȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱşśȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŗǰśŖŖȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱŞśȱȱ ǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Energy Efficiency in Buildings and Manufacturing ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬěȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ various end-‐‑use sectors, including residential, commercial, and industrial. Innovative, ȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ depends on the temporal boundary of cost analysis and the useful life of the particular Ĝ¢ȱȱǻ¢ȱǭȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱĚ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱĜȱȱȱȱ¢ȱțȱȱȱ ȬȬȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜȱ¢ȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȬĜ¢ȱǻȱŗŘǯŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ Ĝ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȬęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŘȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘȱǯ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǻȱŗřśŗŚǼȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ technologies and environmentally-‐‑responsible products. The General Services Admin-‐‑ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŚŖȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŝȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Although some states in the SE have already adopted fairly progressive energy ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ Figure 12.4 2011 ACEEE energy efficiency scorecard rankings. 281 282 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱ states receiving ARRA funds to adopt updated energy codes. According to the ACEEE ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǞŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗřȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȄȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Case Study: Beneficial Electrification of Motors and Vehicles ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ Ĵ¢Ȭ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱęǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ promising technology to introduce the use of electricity as a transportation fuel is through the ȱȱ ǯȱ The Natural Resource Defense Council ǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǻǼȱ¢ȱ¢£ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖśŖǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ production of motor fuels to their consumption ȱȱȱǯȄȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱǯȱȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŜřȱȱŜŗŘȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖśŖȱȱȱřǯŚȱȱŗŖǯřȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ sions in each region of the country. ȱęȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱĴ¢ȱǲȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱ may bring an unusually high burden to areas ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ demand. In particular, transformers serving ȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱ the simultaneous charging of multiple vehicles. ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ these and other issues. ǰȱǯȱȬȱ ¢ȱȱȱ £Ǳȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱĴǱȦȦ ¢ǯǯȦȦȦ ȏȦŘŖŖŞȬȦŗŖŗŜŚŘŘȏ ǯȱ ȱȱǯȱȃȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŗǱȱ ȱȱȱǯȄȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŖŝǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ǯǯȦȦ-‐‑ ȦȦȦȦ Ȭ ¡Ȭŗǯȱ ęȱǯȱȱęȱ-‐‑ Ǳȱ£ȱȱȱ Achieving Energy Security. November 2010. ĴǱȦȦ¢ǯȦ ȬȦ-‐‑ ȦŘŖŗŖȦŗŘȦȬȬȬǯȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬěȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ The study found that policies promoting process improvements, utility plant up-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱęǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ¢ȬĜȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ £ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘǰŗŖŖȱȱȱǻǼȱȱŘŖŘŖȱǻȱŗŗƖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱřǰřŝŜȱȱȱŘŖřŖȱǻȱŗŜƖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱŘŖřŖǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŖŖȱȱ ȱ2ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱŘŘŖǰŖŖŖȱǰȱȱǞŘŚȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱśȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŘŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱĴȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Case Study: Combined Heat and Power (CHP) ȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȃǰȄȱȱȱĜǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȇȱȱĜ¢ǰȱ decrease energy costs, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Energy Information Ad-‐‑ ȱǻǼȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ 49% of industrial energy consumption occurs in ȱǯȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ technology to help reduce this level of consump-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱŚŗŜȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ chemicals, food processing, and pulp and paper ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ east, a number of small applications have been added in the past ten years. The Southeast is also home to four large-‐‑scale natural gas combined ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ and South Carolina. Progressive policies that promote environ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ analyses of output-‐‑based regulations and portfo-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ potential to avoid tens of millions of tonnes of ŘȱǰȱȱŗǯŚȱȱŘǯŚȱȱȱ of energy, and provide billions of dollars of net ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȂȱřśƖȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ no Southeastern state has output-‐‑based regula-‐‑ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ public service commission-‐‑established energy Ĝ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ 283 284 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȂȱŘŖŗŖȱǰȱȱȱȯǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȯȱȱȱȱŗŗȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜȱȱȱǯȱ Case Study: North Carolina RPS ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝȬřşŝǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŘŗǰȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱȱŗŘǯśƖȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ corporations and municipalities that sell electric ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗŖƖȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ¢ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ Ĝ¢ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ę¢ȱǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯŘǯȦ ȏȏȏȦȏȏ Ȧǯ Renewable Portfolio Standards ȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ĝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 285 ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱŗŝȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȯȱȱȯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗŖȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ing SE states have not established either a mandatory or voluntary RPS. Additional ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Carbon Capture and Storage ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 before ȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ2 into the atmo-‐‑ ǯȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 emissions from station-‐‑ ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱŜśƖȱ ȱȱ2ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Case Study: The City of Gainesville, FL Gainesville joined the International Council for ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ for Climate Protection Campaign in 2002. Three years later, the community joined cities across the ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢Ȃȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŝȱȱ ȱŗşşŖȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ target in 2013. ȱȱǰȱǻǼǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱşŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ customers in Gainesville and surrounding areas ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ telecommunications services. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ reduce carbon emissions include monitoring and ȱǲȱȱ¢ȱĜ-‐‑ ¢ǲȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȬȬȬȱȬȱěȱ for solar electricity. ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŗřȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱŝƖȱ ȱŗşşŖȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱ ¢Ȭ ȱȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ Ǽǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢Ȧ-‐‑ Ȧ¢Ȧ 286 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃ¢ȱ¢ǰȄȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ tion of fuel that must be used to run the CCS process. A recent study found that the ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŗƖǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱŘşƖȱȱȱȃȱ-‐‑ ȱȄȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬěȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ formations, oil and gas reservoirs, coal areas that cannot be mined, organic-‐‑rich shales, ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŘǯśȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǱȱǻŗǼȱȱǭǰȱǻŘǼȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱ global collaborations. The primary component of the infrastructure element is the Re-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȦȦ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱ ȱ£ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Figure 12.5 Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SEACARB) map showing deep saline formations with CO2 storage potential. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA Case Study: Hickory Ridge Landfill ȱ ¢ȱȱęȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ¡¢ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱęȱȱȱŗşşřȱȱȱęĴȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ solar photovoltaics and methane gas collection. ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱęȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱ a geomembrane cover being used to close a sec-‐‑ ȱȱȱęǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱŝǰŖŖŖȱȱ panels on 10 acres. The plant generates more than ŗȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ enough to meet the needs of 224 homes. The ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȬȬ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ disposal facility and further reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. ĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȬşŖȏŖŖŖǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦŖŖȦȦ-‐‑ ȦŖǰŘŜŜŞǰŗřŚŘŚśŗŞŘȏŗŚŚśŝŜŝşśȏŗśŜśŜşşŜŞǰŖŖǯȱ Photo courtesy of the Georgia Environmental Finance Authority. ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱŗřȬȱ Ǳȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 287 288 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Table 12.4. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ £ȱȱȁȱȬȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ2 pipelines to storage areas, enhanced oil recovery, and other commercial uses, monitor federal and state regulatory and legisla-‐‑ tive activities, and support local, regional, national, and international education and ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Sustainability Plans ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ cities are developing and instituting plans to reduce their overall direct and indirect ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ability plans. A number of SE cities have also developed sustainability plans to help save energy ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱŘŖŜȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱŝƖȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘȱȱȱŗşşŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱȱ ȱ ȱŞřȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ties, through its Green Government Initiative, also provides assistance to cities and counties through seminars, best practices, modeling, and analytical tools to increase ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱ¢ȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱŗŖśȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȂȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȃȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ£ȱȱȂȱȄȱ ǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱǻȱ ĴȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ 289 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA Table 12.4 Estimates of CO2 Storage Capacity in the SECARB Region. State CO2 Sources (Million Metric Tons) CO2 Storage Resource (Million Metric Tons) Years Storage** Total Oil and Gas Coal and Shale* Saline* Total AL ŞŖ 344 1,944 12,900 ŗśǰŗŞŞ 190 AR řś ŘśŖ ŗśǰŜŝś 4,304 20,229 śŝŘ 143 109 ŗǰŘŝś ŗŜǰŝŘś ŗŞǰŗŖş ŗŘŝ GA 90 4,909 4,909 śś KY 94 14 ŜŞ 400 ŚŞŘ Ȧ LA 102 ŜǰŝŞŗ ŞǰřŘś ŗřşǰŚşŝ ŗśŚǰŜŖř ŗǰśŘŖ MS 34 399 śǰŚŖŖ ŚŜǰŚŘŝ śŘǰŘŘŜ ŗǰśŚŜ NC ŝŝ ŗǰřśŘ ŗǰřśŘ ŗŞ SC 40 ŗǰşşś ŗǰşşś 49 TN ŜŜ śŖŖ śŖŖ Ş ŚŜ 10 231 ŗśş 400 9 ŗŝǰŝśŚ ŚŞŚǰşşŜ śŖŘǰŝśŖ Ȧ 807 25,661 32,918 714,164 772,743 ȕȵ ȱ ě Total * ȱȱȱ ** ȕȹ ȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ2ȱȱȦȱȱǼ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŘŗȱȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¢ȱśŖƖȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŖŗśǯȱȱşśƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱ Ȭȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȃȱȱ ȱȄȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¡¢ȱŘşƖȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱěǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱřşƖȱȱ 290 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ £ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ broader community, have created an environmental and sustainability studies minor, ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱĜȱǰȱȬȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȬĜ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Additional activities. In addition to the activities discussed above, a number of addi-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱŗřśȱȱęȱȱ ȱȂȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱŗŞŜȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱŗŚȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱěȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ 12.4 Research Needs and Uncertainties ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȦȱ blends and biodiesel, the resulting changes and impacts of radiative forcing agents ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ate on a three-‐‑year cycle the current and potential future environmental and resource ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱě¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŞǰȱě¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ Ǳ • ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ • ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA • Ĝȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ • Strategic energy analysis • Carbon capture and storage • ȱę • ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ tion end-‐‑use sectors • ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ȭǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ 12.5 References ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȱ ȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ǯĴǯȦȦ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ¢ǯȦȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȬ¢Ȧȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȦȏǯ¡ȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱ řŖȱǻŗŘǼǱȱŞŘśȬŞřŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ę¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŚŖǱȱŘřŗȬŘŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦȦȦŘřŞŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜ-‐‑ ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦęȦȦŘŖŗŗȦȦȦŖŖŞśȬŖŖŖŖŗŜǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯŘǯȦ ȏȏȏȦȏȏȦȏȏǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȏȦȦȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦǯǵƽŗŗŚ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŖȬŘŖŘśǼǯȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȯȱǯ ¡ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜȱ ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦęȦȦŘŖŗŗȦȦȦŖŖŞśȬŖŖŖŖŗŝǯ ¢ȱěȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱǱȱȱ ¢ȱǯ 291 292 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱŗşŜŖȬŘŖŖşȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȬȬǯȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȬȱ ȱȱǯǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏ¢Ȧ ȏȏȦȦȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ¢. Talla-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯĚǯȦȦ Ȧ¡ǯ ¡ǵƽŚŗşȱ ě¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱřŘȱǻŗŜǼǱȱŘŞŝřȬŘŞŝŚǯ ě¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ species and aerosols. In ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǰȱŘŝśȬŘşśǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ search Service. ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȦ-‐‑ ȬŗŜŚȬŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǯȱClimatic Change ŞŚȱǻŘǼǱȱŗşŗȬŘŖŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ££ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ 2 ȱǭȱȱȱȱȱȱęĴȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¢ȱǭȱ ȱȱŘȱǻŘǼǱȱŗşřȬŘŖśǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȬȦ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ȱŗŝȬŗşǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴǱȦȦ¡ǯǯǯȦȦȦŗşŜşǯŗȦşŚŝşŞȦȬȬŗŗȬŖśȬŘŗǯ ǵƽŗ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȦȦ ȬȦƖŘŖƖŘŖ¢ƖŘŖ ƖŘŖŗŘȬŗŝȬŖşǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ¢ǯȱǯȱĴǯȱřŚǱśǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱě¢ǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ¢ȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŞȱ ǻśǼǱȱŗŞŚşşȬŗŞśřŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱě¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖȱȱŗȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱşȱǻŗǼǱȱŗŞşȬŘŖŜǯ Mayors Climate Protection Center. 2009. ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȦ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA McKinsey&Company. 2009. ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǱȱȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȬ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱǱȱ¢ǭ¢ǯȱ ȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜȱ¢ǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȏȦȏȦŘŖŖŜȦȏŞȦŞȏŗŜȦ National Association of Counties. 2012. ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦǯ¡ ȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ. ǰȱǱȱȱȱǯ Research and Innovative Technology Administration. 2009. Ȃȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ-‐‑ Ȧȏȏȏ ¢ȦŘŖŖşȦȦǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşŝŝǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱŞȱǻǼǱȱśŗȬŞŗǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱşȬŘŜǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȬǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȱǻȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱ ȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȬǯĚǯȦȦǯ¡ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŗşşŖȬŘŖŘśǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŖȬŘŖŘśǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŖȬŘŖŘŖǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ-‐‑ mate Strategies. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱŗşşŖȬŘŖřŖǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱĴȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ -‐‑ ǯȦȦȏȏĴȏǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘȱȮȱȱǯȱȱŘȬşśŚŘŘŖŖşǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǯǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ Ĝȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦǯĚǯȦȦȬęǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ŗǯǯ¢ǯȦȦĴȦȦȏ ęǯȱȱ 293 294 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱȬȬ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ¢ǯȦȦȬȬȬ ȬȬ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ment. ȱȱȱǱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ¢ǯǵƽŘřśŞŞŗȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¡ǯȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱęǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȦȦǯȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ship. ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ Ȭ¢Ȧ ȏǯǛŗ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȦ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯȦȦ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȦǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ȦŘŗŚśşȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱŗŖȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ǯ ¡ǵƽŝŝŚŚ ȱȱ¢ȱĜǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱǯ ȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¡ȱȱŗřśŗŚȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯĴǱȦȦ¢ǯǯȦȱ ǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȬǰȱ¢ȱŘŝǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯȬǯȦȏȦȏ¢ȏȏȏȏȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ ŗśŗȱǻŗǼǱȱŜŖȬŜşǯ Chapter 13 Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA LEAD AUTHORS Kirstin Dow (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) Lynne Carter (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program and Coastal Sustainability Studio, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Ashley Brosius (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments, Columbia, South Carolina) Ernesto Diaz (Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, San Juan, Puerto Rico) Rick Durbrow (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Rhonda Evans (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Stephanie Fauver (NOAA Coastal Services Center, Charleston, South Carolina) Tim Hayden (Engineer Research Development Center–CERL, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, Illinois) Bob Howard (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Kasey Jacobs (Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, San Juan, Puerto Rico) Glenn Landers (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, Florida) Steve McNulty (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Raleigh, North Carolina) Janine Nicholson (Climate Change Strategies Program, NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Raleigh, North Carolina) Dale Quattrochi (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama) Linda Rimer (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, North Carolina) Scott Shuford (City of Fayetteville, Fayetteville, North Carolina) Skip Stiles (Wetlands Watch, Norfolk, Virginia) Adam Terando (Department of Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina) 295 296 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱ ěȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ěǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱěȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ represent adaptation activity in the SE. ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴǯȱěȱ to bring climate change adaptation strategies and methods into mainstream activities often are done through projects that focus on resilience and sustainability. The adapta-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ adaptation planning and implementation, the authors anticipate a shift in activities ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȬęȱȱ ǯȱȱěȱǰȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯ Key Findings f ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ involvement, the diversity of entities involved, and integration of adaptation into other planning processes. f Adaptation activities cross all scales of planning from nongovernmental organi-‐‑ £ȱǻǼȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯ f ¢ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěǯ f ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ sent ongoing activities, the present focus of adaptation in the SE is on identi-‐‑ fying relevant climate impacts and building partnerships to foster coordinated responses and sharing of resources. These partnerships foster additional aspects of adaptive capacity. Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ -‐‑ ability assessment are mostly focused on sea level rise and severe storm threats facing coastal areas and communities. f ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and uncertainty are limited. f ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱ guide adaptation planning. 13.1 Definition of Adaptation ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱęȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȄȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Questions that lead to an understanding of the adaptation ȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǵȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǵȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǵȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ-‐‑ ȱǵȱ • ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǵȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱǵȱ • ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǵȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȃ¢Ȅȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ developing an understanding of current and future climate changes related to the ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ implementing strategies, monitoring outcomes, and re-‐‑evaluating those analyses and ȱǻȱŗřǯŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȬęȱěȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗřǯŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ£ȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ 297 298 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 1. Identify current and future climate changes relevant to the system 6. Monitor and 2. Assess the reeveluate implemented vulnerabilities and risk adaptation options to the system 5. Implement adaptation options 4. Identify opportunities 3. Develop an adaptation for co-benefits and strategy using risk-based synergies across sectors prioritization schemes Figure 13.1 Adaptation planning is envisioned as a cyclical, iterative process incorporating these six steps (NRC 2010a). ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱ¡ǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ thinner and that of conceptual contributions and insights garnered from related or ȱȱ ǯȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȬȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ several studies have considered potential losses to SLR, there is less consideration of ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗřǯŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱǰȱĜ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱě-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱ stresses. In the SE, mainstreaming might include strategies that address population ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯ 13.2 Major Stresses on the Southeast The Southeast is vulnerable to a number of direct and indirect impacts from the current ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Population Growth ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝŜǰȱȱŗşŞŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱȱřǼǯȱ Residential and business development has typically increased populations in coastal ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱĚǰȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ ȱĴȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱŘŖŝŖȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱȱȱŗşǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱşŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Research on land use planning along the Atlantic coast indicates that many state and ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗřǯŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱĴȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ 299 300 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Table 13.1 Intensity of Development of Land along Atlantic Coast (USA) Land within 1m above High Water. Likelihood of shore protectiona ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱlȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Percent of dry land, by land use typeb Area State Developed (%) Intermediate Undeveloped (%) (%) Conservation (%) Dry land (km2) Non-‐‑tidal Wetlands (km2) Tidal Wetlands (km2) MA ŘŜ 29 22 23 110 24 řŘś RI řŜ 11 ŚŞ ś Ş 1 29 CT ŞŖ Ş ŝ ś 30 2 ŝŚ NY ŝř ŗŞ 4 Ŝ ŗŜś 10 149 ŜŜ ŗś 12 ŝ Řŝś ŗŝŘ şŞŖ PA 49 21 ŘŜ 4 24 3 Ŝ DE Řŝ ŘŜ 23 24 ŗŘŜ 32 řśŝ MD 19 ŗŜ śŜ 9 449 122 ŗŗŗŜ DC ŞŘ ś 14 0 4 0 1 39 22 32 ŝ řŜś ŗŚŞ ŗŘŝŘ NC ŘŞ 14 śś 3 ŗřŜŘ řŖśŖ ŗŘŝŘ SC ŘŞ 21 41 10 341 ŘŝŘ 2229 GA Řŝ ŗŜ 23 34 133 349 ŗśŗŗ Ŝś 10 12 13 ŗŘŞŜ ŘŗŘś 3213 Total 42 15 33 9 4665 6314 12882 a ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ b ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding ǻȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŗǰȱǯȱśǼ Tourism ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ combination of permanent and seasonal populations along the coastline. Such invest-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ teristics of the most populated coastal areas. The majority of Atlantic coastline areas that Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA Box 13.1 Process for Identifying Adaptation Activities in the Southeast ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ investigation to identify adaptation activities ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ summary is based on a compilation of adaptation ȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǻ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǲȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȦ ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱ¡ȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱ from researchers contributing to the South-‐‑ eastern Region Technical Input to the National Climate Assessment, and additional research conducted by Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments teams in the Southeast. The types of documents represented included planning docu-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ Ȭ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱ Ǽǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ body of information represents the triangula-‐‑ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ mentioned above. The cases presented represent ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ or manufacturing businesses. A second reason ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ planned rather than autonomous forms of ad-‐‑ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ versies is a potential source of under representing of adaptation activities in the Southeast. Research by Carolinas Integrated Sciences Assessments ǻŘŖŗŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ they consciously avoid publicly identifying these activities as adaptation actions in order to avoid political controversy around climate change. ǰȱȱȱȬęǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ Ĝ¢ǯ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ture and employment tied to coastal tourism could hinder the ability to adapt rapidly to ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ Ȭȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ SLR. Additionally, many areas are prone to land subsidence due to the presence of ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 301 302 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES and future sea level rise. In some cases, subsidence is the primary cause of relative ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘƖȱȱŗŗƖȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖƖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Drought and Water Supply Ȭȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱĴǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻĴǱȦȦ ǯĚǯȦǼǯ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱĜ¢ǯȱ 13.3 Adaptation in the Southeast ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŗřǯŗǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ information is an indicative, rather than comprehensive, summary of overall trends in the Southeast. ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŗřǯŗǼȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ȱȱęǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ port the development of adaptive capacity in the region by developing educational ȱȱǻȱŗŚǼǰȱǰȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ researchers and practitioners that are applicable to the southeast region. This section ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ěǯ Step 1: Identify Current and Future Climate Changes Relevant to the System ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ sessions held along the Albemarle Sound elicited concerns of residents about climate ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱę-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǲȱǲȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ £ȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ have been recommended to start adaptation planning as part of their comprehensive ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱŚŞȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱǲȱǰȱǲȱǰȱǲȱ ȱǰȱǲȱȱ Greensboro, NC. Since the time of that study, Greensboro, NC has integrated climate 303 304 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŞȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśƖȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ less than 1% reported having participated in community discussions, state, or federal climate change. Since the time of that study, other initiatives, including the Southeast ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ this area. Step 2: Assess the Vulnerabilities and Risk to the System ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ adaptation processes. Multi-‐‑sectoral vulnerability analyses to inform adaptation are un-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŚǼǯȱ¢ȱ ěȱĚȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Master Plan to incorporate both planning and action-‐‑ready projects that among other ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯ-‐‑ ǯǯǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ understanding of local SLR scenarios to underpin developing adaptation plans. ȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȬ-‐‑ ȱ£ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȂȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȂȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱǻȂȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ illustrates a case-‐‑based approach designed to inform a broader vulnerability assess-‐‑ ment of military facilities in the SE to be conducted in the future. NASA is assessing ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖ, North Carolina Department ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Council. ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱěȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŗřŖȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ It is developing a comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment and recom-‐‑ mended adaptation strategies for Puerto Rico. The project supported the establishment ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȬęȱ-‐‑ £ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱǱ • ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǯ • ȱ ¢ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ £ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ policies that could be implemented in Puerto Rico. • ȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ civil society, the media, and the private sector. • ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ change adaptation, and mitigation. ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŚŞŖȱ documents related to climate change and the Caribbean and they have established a PR-‐‑CC-‐‑Listserv for announcements and sharing of relevant publications. ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱǼȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯĚ-‐‑ ǯȦǼȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȬǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǲȱǻŘǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱǻřǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱǻŚǼȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Change Action Plan, including both mitigation and adaptation strategies. ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱĴǼȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ for the cooperating counties. There are numerous successes as a result of the Compact in the areas of governance, ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȄȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ implement special policies for areas that are particularly vulnerable to SLR and coastal Ěǯȱ 305 306 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŜŖȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗŗŖǰȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ of future trends for longer term and large scale investments in the region. ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦȦƖŘŖƖŘŖ ƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖŘŖŗŗƖŘŖƖŘŖǯ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ missions, built infrastructure, and natural ecosystems on military lands. The 2010 Qua-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȃȱȱǻȱǼȱȱ complete a comprehensive assessment of all installations to assess the potential impacts ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȄȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tion planning for climate change. Current adaptation research and planning initiatives for the SE NCA region are administered by the DoD Strategic Environmental Research ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱThe National Aero-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ concern in the SE. As a proactive measure, NASA has implemented a Climate Adapta-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and vulnerability to climate change, and developing adaptation measures and plans for ȱȬȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼǰȱǲȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǲȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ ǲȱȱȱ¢ȱǼǰȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŘŖǰȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱŘŖŞŖȯȱȱȱ-‐‑ age temperature, average precipitation, SLR, SLR under a rapid ice melt scenario, days ȱ¡ȱȱȱşŖǚȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚŖǚȱȱřŘǚȱǻ£ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱ£ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Given these projections, each Center is developing plans for implementation of ad-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ are conducting research under the aegis of CASI that further elucidates the potential Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ constructing adaptation strategies. ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱThe Southeast Regional Assessment ȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change and inform natural resource managers on strategies for conserving ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśȱǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ecological, and socioeconomic processes to aid the development of robust adaptation strategies. Improving the robustness of decisions is primarily achieved by identifying ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱ ¢ǰȱȱĚ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ are more robust to a range of future climatic changes. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ inputs to ecological process models. Avian range dynamics are being developed for the ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ĴȬȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŗŖŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ and managers to plan for the potential impacts of climate and landscape changes using strategic habitat conservation and a process of adaptive management. North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study and iRisk Tool for the Inte-‐‑ grated Hazard Risk Management. ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǞśȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ-‐‑ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ 307 308 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ £ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǻǰȱǰȱ ȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȂȱ Ȭ ȱȱęȬȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ on collecting asset information for buildings and other critical infrastructure at the ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ £ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ£ȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ£ȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ help save lives, decrease property damage, and improve resiliency to natural disasters. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ning approach and the associated computer-‐‑based tools, including Durham, Edge-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ Step 3: Develop an Adaptation Strategy Using Risk-based Prioritization Schemes ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȂȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱěȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱThese include the com-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǻ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȂȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱ£ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱĴȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ>ŽƵŝƐŝĂŶĂŽĂƐƚĂů,ĂǌĂƌĚDŝƟŐĂƟŽŶ'ƵŝĚĞďŽŽŬ suggests ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ĚȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱ£ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ£ǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ impacts of climate stability, sea level, hydrology, geomorphology, natural habitats and Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA species, land use changes, economy, human health, human infrastructure, and variable ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ SLR, more intense coastal storms, and changes in precipitation. ȱȱ¢ȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱěȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱ ǼǯȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱĴȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ Ǽȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ and a monitoring plan for estuarine systems. Indian River Lagoon NEP and the City ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȬǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻěȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Climate Ready Estuaries. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ronmental Protection Agency is a partnership among the National Estuary Programs ǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱ¢Ȅȱ¢ȱ providing tools and assistance to assess climate change vulnerability and to plan for ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱǻǼǰȱ Ĵȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 309 310 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱěǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ public outreach and participation in updates to local comprehensive plans to integrate ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱSLR visu-‐‑ £ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱtips and early lessons.ȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱfocused on ȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȱ¢ȱ Ȅȱȱ-‐‑ ing resiliency into habitat restoration and protection plans to communities around the ȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱǻǯȱǰȱȱǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱǰȱĚȱȱȬ£ȱȱǰȱ£ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ agencies, military programs, businesses, and faith communities to address these issues ǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ The Climate Change Adapta-‐‑ tion Inventory is a compilation of climate adaptation activities and research initiatives ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ-‐‑ mate change or SLR. Research activities captured by the inventory are limited to those projects that have applications to coastal communities, particularly planning and devel-‐‑ opment, land management, and socioeconomic initiatives. Currently available online as ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěǯ ȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŖśǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱŗşřȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱȱŗřǯŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŖƸȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝŜǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of the forest. Pe-‐‑ riodically, these management plans are re-‐‑evaluated to see if desired future conditions ȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯǱŞŖşŖȦǰȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŞȱǻ-‐‑ ȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ ęȱǰȱǰȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cludes the forest plan, potential climate change impacts and management options. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ Estuary. Adaptation to climate change along the North Carolina coast is the focus of an interagency pilot project to build resilience into the natural landscape, integrate part-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ source mission responsibilities. The SENRLG Landscape Conservation and Restoration ȱȱǻǼȱęȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ novative approach to address environmental challenges in long-‐‑term natural resource protection. The outcomes of the LCRPP are designed to demonstrate that collaborative, ȬȬȱȱȬȱǰȱǰȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ǳ 311 312 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES • ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ that promote resilience of the landscape and improved capacity to adapt to cli-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ • ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭęȱ through targeted funding of restoration and conservation projects. • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȬȬȱ ǯ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ -‐‑ aptation. The TRIP proȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ partnerships across the SE. Step 4: Identify Opportunities for Co-benefits and Synergies Across Sectors ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ order to inform adaptation strategies. Some vulnerability assessment and adapta-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěǯȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȬęȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ at helping governments assess the economic value of adaptation is available that ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȬęȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱThe North Carolina ¢ȱȱǰȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ Carolina state agencies include Departments of Transportation, Environment and Natural Resources, Commerce, Cultural Resources, and Agriculture and Consumer ǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱĴȱǰȱ ¡¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ across sectors and regions of the state. ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȬǰȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱǱȱ ǻŗǼȱ¢ȱȱȱǲȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ȱǻřǼȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱěȱ£ȱȃȬȄȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȮǰȱǰȱȱǱ • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • Promote comprehensive adaptation planning among state agencies. • ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěǯȱ • ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ • Encourage broad collaboration and partnerships to leverage resources. • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ Steps 5 and 6: Implement, Monitor, and Re-evaluate Implemented Adaptation Options The implementation, monitoring, and regular re-‐‑evaluation of adaptation options are steps of adaptive management strategies incorporated into climate adaptation recom-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ of uncertainty. In practice, the process of adaptive management confronts several ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¡ǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱThe Alligator ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśŚǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱěǰȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱǱ • ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tat for a variety of species. 313 314 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES • ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ěȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ • ȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ habitat loss. In addition, the project aims to establish migration corridors for species to move ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢ǰȱȱŚŖȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Plain refuges. 13.4 Supporting Adaptive Capacity ȱ¢ȱęȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡-‐‑ panding set of programs and centers that support adaption planning at all stages. The ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate of the SE, to development of climate datasets, geospatial datasets, and analysis ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ oping programs in the region. Climate Ready Estuaries (www.epa.gov/cre/live.html) ȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǲȱŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱřǼȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǲȱȱŚǼȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ provides resources and tools important to monitor changes, and material to support development of adaptation plans for coastal communities and their related estuaries. Climate Science Centers (www.doi.gov/csc/southeast/index.cfm) ȱǻȱȱȱǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ adapt to a changing climate. Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA CSC: Coastal Services Center (www.csc.noaa.gov) ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ responsible for coastal resource management by providing technology, information, ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȃȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱěȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ mation, people, and technology. National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) (www.nerrs.noaa.gov; gulfalliancetraining.org) There are 10 ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ serves are living laboratories to investigate coastal concerns, including climate change and building resilience. ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȬǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ Regional Integrated Science Assessment (RISA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) There are three RISA teams serving the SE. • CISA: Carolinas Integrated Science and Assessments (www.cisa.sc.edu).ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ -‐‑ ity, range, relevance, and accessibility of climate information that is used for re-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ěǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ methods of providing climate data, science, and education. • SCIPP: Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (www.southernclimate. org). The SCIPP focus is on research, education, and tool development around ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱǱȱǰȱ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ and Mississippi. • SECC: Southeast Climate Consortium (www.seclimate.org). The Southeast ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȮȱȱȱȬȱȱ Ȯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ-‐‑ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ǳȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯ 315 316 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Ǽǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ mate information at the county level that is valuable to many other sectors. • Sea Grant Programs (www.seagrant.noaa.gov). There are 32 Sea Grant Pro-‐‑ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȦǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ developing a variety of outreach, education, and tools that focus on building re-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱěǯȱȱ are many tools and educational resources developed and in process through the various Sea Grant programs. 13.5 Summary ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȮȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ numbers and diversity of groups involved, the mainstreaming of adaptation planning, ȱȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯ ¢ǰȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱęȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ coordinated response of the authorities and resources. ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȬęȱȱǯȱȱěȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱǯ 13.6 References Ȃȱ¢ȱǰȱȂȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǱȱ¡ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȏ¢ȦȦȦȏȏ ȏȏǯ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȦȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱǱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦęȦƖŘŖƖŘŖ¢ƖŘŖƖŘŖ ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱśŗȱǻŚǼǱȱŝśŗȬŝŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ tion and Communities Collaborative and The Albemarle-‐‑Pamlico National Estuary Pro-‐‑ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦęȦƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖ North%20Carolina.pdf. ȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǽȱȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȬǯ Community Sustainability Council. 2010. ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ. ǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯȬǯȦȦ -‐‑ ǯ¡ǵƽŗŗşŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱǯǯǯȱPal-‐‑ ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱřŖśȱǻŗȮŚǼǱȱŘŘŝȬŘŚşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ĴǱȦȦǯǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŖȏŗŘŗřǯǯ ¡ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȬǯȱǰȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¢ǱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱǯȱ ŚŚŗȱǻŝŖşřǼǱȱśŞŝȬśŞŞǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ-‐‑ partment of Defense. ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦǯęǵȏ ȏƽśŖŗŖşśǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦŚȦȦ-‐‑ ȦȦ¡ǯǯ Evans, R.L. 2004. Rising Sea Levels and Moving Shorelines. ȱŚřȱǻŗǼǱȱŗȬŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯěǯȦěȦȦȬȬŖşȬŗŚǯǯ £ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱ£ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱřŖȱǻŚǼǱȱŚşŖȬśŖśǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǽȱȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱȱ ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŞǼǱȱŞŚşȬŞŜŚǯ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȂȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯĚǯȦǯ 317 318 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŘŝȬŘřŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ-‐‑ tions to environmental management. ȱȱŗŜȱǻŜǼǱȱŘŚŗŗȬŘŚŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ĴǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱClimatic Change 104 ǻŗǼǱȱŞşȬŗŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ hurricane inundation, property damages, and population impacted. ȱǭȱȱ-‐‑ mentȱśřȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŜŚśȬŜśŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ-‐‑ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦȦ¢ǯǵƽŘŘŝŚŞřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦ Ȧ ȦŘŖŗŖȦȏȏǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ A.K. 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Tropical cyclones and climate change. ȱȱřȱǻřǼǱȱ ŗśŝȬŗŜřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȮȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘşşȱǻŘǼǱȱŘŗŚȬŘŗŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŚȱǻřǼǱȱśŝśȬśşŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŗŚȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱŗŝǰȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱǰȱ Louisiana. ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŗȦȦȦǯǯ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ changeǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦǯǯ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ. ǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦǯǯ Natural Resources Defense Council. 2011. ȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦęȦ ȏ ǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ oped coastlines. ¢ȱ¢ȱ ǱȱȱȱŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŞşȬşŞǯ ȱǻȱȱȱǼǯȱŗşŝŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŜǯȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦ-‐‑ ȦȦşŚȬśŞŞǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ǱȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱǽȱŗŞȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǯȦ¢Ȧǯ ȱȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǽȱȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱ ȱȱĴǱȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǯ¡ǯ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȦ ȦȦȏ¢ȏǯǯ North Carolina Department of Commerce. 2012. ǯȱǰȱǱȱǯǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǯ North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. 2010. ȱȱ¢-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱȱǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱǯ NRC. 2011. ȂȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŝȱǻŗȬŘǼǱȱŘŖřȬŘŘřǯ Prete, P. 2010. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱǯǯȱȱǯ Puerto Rico Coastal Management Program. 2011. ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŗŘ. ȱǰȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦęȦȦȦ Ȧ£ȦȬȬŗȦȏȏȏŘǯǯ £ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǲȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱŘŞȬřŖȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱşŖȱǻŚŖǼǱȱřśŘǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȂȱǱȱȱȬ-‐‑ ient NASA Centers. ĴȱŗśȱǻǼǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȬȦ Resource-‐‑Conservation-‐‑and-‐‑Climate-‐‑Change. ěǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦ ęȦƖŘŖěƖŘŖǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢ǱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯǯ ȦȦȦ¢ǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşȬ ŘŖŗşǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȬşŗŝǯ Stratus Consulting Inc. 2010a. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱǰȱǯ Stratus Consulting Inc. 2010b. ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱǰȱǯ £ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȬȦśŞŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŝŜǯȱȱȱǱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱŜŜȱǻřǼǱȱřŗŚȬřřŖǯ The Center for Climate Strategies. 2012. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ-‐‑ ǯȦ¢ȏȦȦ¡ǯ 319 320 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȬȱǱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȏǯǯ The Nature Conservancy. 2010. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ ŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŗś. Ar-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦęȦƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ Ȭǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱĴȱŚǰȱŖŚŚŖŖŞǲȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŞŞȦŗŝŚŞȬşřŘŜȦŚȦŚȦŖŚŚŖŖŞǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŗŞȱǻřǼǱȱŘŖśȬŘŘŞǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ £ǯȱ¡ǰȱȱ ǱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ £Ȧǯ ȱǻǯǯȱ¢ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŘȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯ¢ǯȦȦŘȦȦȦȏŘŘŗŖǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ ǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǯǯȱȱȮȱ ǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȏȏ ȏŖŗŖŜǯǯ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱClimate ChangeǯȱǰȱǱȱĜȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴǱȦȦ-‐‑ ĚǯǯȦȬȦǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦǯ¡ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱ £ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ £ǯǯ Chapter 14 Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training LEAD AUTHOR LaDon Swann (swanndl@auburn.edu; Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium and Auburn University Marine Extension and Research Center, Mobile, Alabama) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Julian Carroll (Mississippi State University, Starkville, Mississippi) Lynne Carter (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Stuart Foster (Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, Kentucky) Suzanne VanParreren (Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve, Darien, Georgia) 321 322 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ continue to be essential in addressing the climate change needs facing the Southeast ǻǼȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ as practitioners, provides an introduction and details for planning, delivering, and evaluating climate change programs. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȃȱ Ȅȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȃȱȄȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ-‐‑ ing the best available science delivered by credible and trusted educators is critical for successful implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ other to craft simple, clear, and consistent messages necessary to build trust and en-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ student grade levels. Programs also need to be established for state and local govern-‐‑ ǰȱȱ£ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to build stronger climate change education programs in the SE. Key Findings f ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ f ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ education. f ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ f Ĵȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ě¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ programs for both groups. f ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ-‐‑ tional design models. Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ-‐‑ ȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ f Trust has to be established over time. f ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱęȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ audiences. 14.1 Why Climate Education is an Essential Part of Climate Science ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱŗşŞŖǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ portion of the population to change their behavior and support critical mitigation and ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȬǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ change depends largely upon internal factors such as personal insight, commitment, ęǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ȃȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǯȄȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ tions are useful in developing programs to educate people about climate and corre-‐‑ ȱȱǱȱ 1. ȱȱȱȂȱȦĴǵ 2. ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǵ 3. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǵȱ 4. ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǵȱ śǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǵ Ŝǯȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǵ ŝǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǵ Şǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ munication format, at the right time to the right audience. 323 324 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Research on the various interpretations of and responses to a changing climate ȱęȱ¡ȱȃȄȱȱȱȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱ along a continuum of acceptance of the reality and critical nature of a changing climate. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǼǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡Ǳȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ great deal of public uncertainty on the issue of a changing climate. Many members of ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȬȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻŝřƖǼȱȱȱǻśŞƖǼȱ-‐‑ ǯȄȱǻȂȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǯǼȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ure of scientists to craft simple, clear, and consistent messages and repeat them often ǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ Ǳ 1. ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǵ 2. ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǵ 3. ȱȱȱ¢ȱǵ 4. ȱȱ ȱȱȱǵȱ In addition, many members of the public believe there is still major disagreement ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŖŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşŝƖȱȱȱ-‐‑ mate scientists are convinced that human induced activities are responsible for recently ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ 14.2 A Starting Point for Climate Education: Climate versus Weather ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǲȱȱȱĚǲȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǲȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȂȱ ǯȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ climate. Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 14.3 Context for Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ audiences described later in this chapter. Practitioners of climate education programs ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǱ • ¢ȱȱǻǼǱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯ • ȱȱ¢Ǳȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ¢£ȱȱȱ¡Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǲȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴǯ • ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ior, the condition and criteria. The component of an objective that describes the ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯ • ȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱȱȦȱǯ • ȱȱ¢ǱȱȬȱǰȱȱǰȱ learner participation, assessment. • Develop and Select Instructional Materials. • ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ tify areas of the instructional materials that are in need of improvement. • ȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ • Design and Conduct Summative Evaluation. Three Classifications of Education ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱě¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱǱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯ 1. Formal educationȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȬŗŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗşŝřǼǯȱ 2. Nonformal education is any intentional and systematic educational enterprise, ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡£ȱȱǻȱ ŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ¡-‐‑ ibility than formal education. 325 326 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 3. Informal educationȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢¢ȱ ¡-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱ opportunities. Adult education often uses nonformal methods, as does youth education is some ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱŚȬ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǱ 1. Adults are autonomous and self-‐‑directed. They need to be free to direct them-‐‑ selves. Their teachers must actively involve adult participants in the learning ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ę¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ -‐‑ Ȃȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ sponsibility for presentations and group leadership. Teachers should act as fa-‐‑ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ 2. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ relevant to the topic. Teachers must relate theories and concepts to the partici-‐‑ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯ 3. ȱȱȬǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĴǯȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ course. 4. Adults are relevancy-‐‑oriented. They must see a reason for learning something. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ue to them. Therefore, instructors must identify objectives for adult participants before the course begins. This need for relevance also means that theories and ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱǯ śǯȱ Adults are practical, focusing on the aspects of a lesson most useful to them in ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ the job. Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Ŝǯȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ Engagement in the Climate Discussion £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȂȱȱȃȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȄȱǻȱ ŗşşşǼȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳ 1. ǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǵ 2. ȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǵ 3. ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ£Ȃȱȱȱȱȱ¢-‐‑ sis that informs constituents about important and controversial issues in a fac-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱǵ 4. ¢ǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ǵȱȱȱ£Ȃȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱǵ śǯȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȬ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǵ Ŝǯȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡£ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǵȱȱȱ£Ȃȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǵ ŝǯȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǵ EOET and Downscaling of Climate Information ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ£ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻǯǯȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ 327 328 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼȱ¢ȱȱŜŘȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱęȱ in south Louisiana or a beachfront community in North Carolina. Who are the Current Audiences? ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬŗŘȱȱȱ-‐‑ ences, including focus on the general public, industry, governmental planners, and resources managers. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱřǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȬȱȱȱǻǼȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱ planning. The study results are useful in planning climate information needs because ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ£ȱǻ£ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ include maps of projected relative sea level rise overlaying vulnerable infrastructure and neighborhoods. Another important audience is K-‐‑12 teachers and their students. Improving climate literacy in K-‐‑12 education programs lays the foundation for long-‐‑term improvements in ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱǻŘŖŖŞȱȱŘŖŖşǼȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡Ǳ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 1. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱĴǯȱ 2. ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ 3. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ 4. ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ What Is Success and How Should It Be Measured Climate change education programs must be evaluated in order to be responsive to and ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǼȱȱęȱǻǰȱǰȱ ȱǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱę-‐‑ ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŗşşřǼǯȱ The purpose of formative evaluation is to validate or ensure that the instruction ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ education programs should undergo a formative evaluation to determine age-‐‑appro-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ as audience accessibility. The return on the instructional investment should be calcu-‐‑ lated during the formative stage of the program. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȦȬȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱĚ¡ȱȱ are due to the instruction. In practice a post-‐‑test only design is common but is only use-‐‑ ȱ ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ing the instruction and the control group not receiving the instruction. Implementation of adaptation plans, changes in behavior, policy changes, and ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate education programs. Resiliency and adaptation to climate change and ocean ęǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ communities to reduce vulnerability to sea level rise based on climate change projec-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ municate the science and adaptation-‐‑relevant information to practitioners. Role of Credible Science in EOET ȱȱęȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 329 330 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES set of best practices that have evolved over the past decade or so for ensuring that sci-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ credible, publicly legitimate, and especially relevant to policy and management deci-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱě¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱěȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȃȄȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ¢Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǵȄȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ Trust, Risk, and Credible Science Climate Education and Communication ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ Ĵǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ provided. In order to ensure a transparent, traceable account of recommended actions, ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ tion to implementation of mitigation of or adaptation to climate change impacts. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŗşşŘǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱ can sharply increase trust through the establishment of a similar value system among ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training average American adult, regardless of age, income, or education, generally does not ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȬěȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ Ĵȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱŞŖƖȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱŗŘƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ£ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ Needs Based Content ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǲȱǰȱȱǲȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳ 1. Establish climate education inventories that can be used to develop an inventory of plans, lessons learned, and best management practices. 2. Establish a clear vocabulary on climate science that is understandable by dispa-‐‑ rate audiences. 3. Develop reliable and consistent information to frame messages. 4. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ£ȱȱ ǯ śǯȱ Develop transparent and participatory approaches to the selection of materials for educational programs. Ŝǯȱ Support ongoing information clearinghouses. ŝǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ¡ȱȱȱǯ Şǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȬęȱ¢ǯ 9. Sustain mechanisms for regional collaboration. 10. Address issues of scale. 11. ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯ 331 332 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱǰȱȃȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȄȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡Ǳ 1. A broad range of tailored information and tools is needed for the diversity of ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ 2. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ responsibilities, competing priorities, and resource constraints. 3. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ on any one region or sector, and ensures the credibility and comprehensiveness of information and policy. ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ participation from partners and the public. These partnerships include federal, state, ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ groups. State STEM Education Standards ǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ strong emphasis on STEM education often integrate science, technology, engineering, ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱǱ 1. ȱȱȱȱȱǯ 2. ¡ȱȱȱȱǯ 3. Provide ongoing and sustainable STEM professional development. 4. Encourage STEM pre-‐‑service teacher training. śǯȱ Recruit and retain STEM teachers. ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŘşȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ tinuum of lifelong formal and informal education and outreach opportunities in ocean, ǰȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯ 14.4 Delivery Methods ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŗǰȱȱŗşşřǼǯ Traditional Delivery ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ĵǰȱǰȱęȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ their inception. Designers of these nonformal education programs understand the need to develop and adopt methods delivery methods that are most appropriate for ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱ educational activities. Role of Media in Climate Education Delivery ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȃ¢ȱ¢ǰȄȱşşƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱ¡ȱ£ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȯ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ programs are easily accessible and often provided free through a personal computer, ǰȱȱ ȬȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȂȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ -‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŞŖŖȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱǻȂȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ able climate science. 333 334 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦęȦ¢ǯǼǱ 1. ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǵ 2. ¢ȱȱȱǯ 3. ¢ȱȱȱ ǯ 4. ȱȱȱ ǯ śǯȱ ¢Ǳȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǵ 14.5 Program Integration ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ-‐‑ ȦǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǲȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼȱ Mandates ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŘşȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ program. ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱěǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ students, federal agencies have begun the process of implementing programs and ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 14.6 Barriers to Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Regarding Climate Change ȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ǳȱ 1. ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ĝȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱǯ 2. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ implement mitigation and adaptation strategies. 3. ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ 4. ȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ śǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ education strategies among myriad federal agencies, nongovernmental organi-‐‑ £ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ Ŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȂȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the community level. As a result, Culver et al. recommended case studies and partner-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱęȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ 14.7 Ongoing Education, Outreach, Extension and Training Programs ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬŗŘȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱęȱǲȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ 335 336 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ventory of these types of services. ȱĜȱȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĜȱȱ-‐‑ mental climate research from local to global aspects, and provides solicited testimony ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ Courts regarding climate and climate change issues. Website:ȱĴǱȦȦ¡ǯǯǯ ȦȦ Animal Agriculture and Climate Change Ȃȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱ changes. Website: ĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦŜŖŝŖŘȦȬȬȬ climate-‐‑change Center for Coastal Ecology ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱěǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ Website: ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȱ CHARM–Community Health and Resource Management Addresses climate adaptation issues through a no-‐‑regrets approach of good planning ȱ¡ȱȱ£ǯȱWebsite:ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯȬǯ Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬŗŜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ classroom or laboratory to help communicate these topics to their students. Website: ĴǱȦȦǯǯȦǯ Climate Community of Practice in the Gulf of Mexico ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ level rise and other climate-‐‑related issues. Through participation in the community, ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change. Website:ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Climate Literacy Education and Research ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȬ ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ variety of scales. Website: ĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȬ¢ Climate Resilient Communities Program The program goal is to help local governments build more resilient communities, through greater resilience of social, environmental, and economic systems. The pro-‐‑ gram aggregates and develops information needed for local governments to under-‐‑ stand climate change, to understand their vulnerabilities, to identify strategies ap-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ verifying success. Website:ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ Georgia Interfaith Power & Light ȱ£Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěǯȱWeb-‐‑ site:ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ Gulf Coast Community Handbook, Tampa Bay Estuary Program ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ incorporating resiliency into habitat restoration and protection plans to communities ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱ ȱ contribute to climate change adaptation in the estuary by providing on-‐‑the-‐‑ground ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ into habitat restoration and protection strategies, including a summary of best prac-‐‑ tices. Website:ȱĴǱǱȦȦ ǯǯ Kentucky Climate Center ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱ ǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ing a mesonet to support both operational and research needs. Website:ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ¢ǯ King Tide Photo Documentary Project ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǯȱWebsite: ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ 337 338 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) This program conducts research, education, and outreach on climate change and Ȯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ education activities include a graduate course, an undergraduate internship program, ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǰȱȱ course. Website: ĴǱȦȦǯ Public Water Supply Utilities Climate Impacts Working Group (PWSU-‐‑CIWG) ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȬ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱWebsite: ĴǱȦȦ ǯĚǯȦ ȏȦȬǯ Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve (SINERR) Coastal Training Program The SINERR Coastal Training Program provides support and information to elected Ĝȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ǯȱWeb-‐‑ site: ĴǱȦȦ ǯȬǯȦ Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) ȱȱȱȱŝŖȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ and other education and outreach programs. Target audiences of the SECC currently £ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱWebsites: ĴǱȦȦǯǲȱ ĴǱȦȦǯ Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱǼȱȱǻȱȱŗřǼǯȱȱȦ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǲȱ ȱȱȱ ǲȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱWebsite: ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training ȱȱĜȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǯȱȱ outreach and education goals are to increase public and professional understanding of climate science, monitoring, and prediction and to build capacity for sectoral ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱǯȱWebsite: ĴǱȦȦȬǯ ncsu.edu Tennessee Climatological Service ȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǰȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻǰȱǰȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Website:ȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦ 14.8 Conclusions ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ for K-‐‑12 education, higher education, state or local governments, or for the general public. Targeted programs are essential to reach the desired program goals or out-‐‑ comes including improving climate literacy, adaptation strategies, or climate-‐‑friendly ȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and evaluated against local, regional and national climate program goals and objectives ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ 14.9 References ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦȬȬǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦǯǵƽŗŞřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ Ȭǯ ǯȦȦȦȏȦ¡ǯ £ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ £ȱȱ¢ȱǱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ£ȱȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ 2010. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱĜǯ 339 340 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cation. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŝȱǻŚǼǱȱŘşŝȬřŖşǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘȱǻĴǱȦȦ¢¢ǯȦȱȏȏǼ ǰȱǯȱŗşŝřǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱ Council for Educational Development. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¡-‐‑ tension conducted via social media. ȱȱ¡ȱŚşȱǻŜǼǱȱŜŗǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦŘŖŗŗȦĴŗǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŖśǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱřȬśǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱǱȱ Pearson Education. ǰȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱȱȱřŚȱǻŚǼǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ ǯǯȦȦȦřŚȦřŚȬŖŚȬŝŘǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ. Arling-‐‑ ȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȦȏ ǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱǱȱȱȱěȱȱǯǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ment.ȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ£ǯȦȦƖŘŖȦȬ-‐‑ ƖŘŖŘŖŖŞȦȬȬǯǯ ȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱ-‐‑ ȬȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯȦȦȦŗŘȬŖřŜǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ processes. ȱȱ¡ȱŚřȱǻŗǼǱȱŗřǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŖś¢Ȧřǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŚȱǻŗşşŘǼǱȱŗśŘȬŗŝŜǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢ȬȬǯȦŗşşŘȬŘȦȏ ȏŗşşŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏ¢Ȧ ȏęǵƽŘŝŖǭƽȬŘśŝǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǰȱȱȱǱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱŚşȱǻŗǼǱȱŘŖȬřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱǯ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ Ȃȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ¢ǯȦȦęȦ-‐‑ May2011.pdf. ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ Ȃȱ¡ȱȂǰȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦǯ¢ǯ ȦȦęȦ¡¢ŘŖŗŗǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŗȬŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢ȱśŘȱǻŘǼǱȱ ŗśśȬŗşŚǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦęȦȦȦ-‐‑ ȏȏ¢ȏȏȏȏŖŗȬŗŘȬŗŘǯǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦȏ-‐‑ ¢ȏȬęǯǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯ ǯȦȦȦȏȏȏŖřȏŘŖȏŖŞǯǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȬ 2029ǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯ National Research Council. 2011. ȱȱǱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱȱȱȱǯ National Research Council. 2010. ȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦǯǵȏƽŗŘŝŞŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ ȏȏȏǯȱ Ȃǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱŚşȱǻŜǼǱȱŜŘǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŗȦŘǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȬȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ Department. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ-‐‑ ǰȱǱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦǅȦȦȦȦȦŘŖŗŖȦ ȏȏȏ¢ȏ ȏǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŗşşřǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ learners. ȱǭȱȱřŘȱǻŜǼǱȱŘŘȬŘŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱ£Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŖȱǻśǼȱǱŝŗřȬŝŗşǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱȱǱȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦŝŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ ŜŚȱǻŗŖǼǱȱŚŞȬśřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǽǾǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱŚşȱǻŗǼǱȱ ŗŗǯȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŗ¢Ȧŗǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ 341 ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ is based on one of a series of regional technical reports prepared ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŖȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ-‐‑ ing, geography, hydrology, planning, resource management, agriculture, ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢£ȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ability has strong physical, biological, and social impacts for the southeast-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ for mitigation and potential solutions for adaptation to climate variabil-‐‑ ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ous for the present and future generations. Cover design: Maureen Gately Book design: Livia Kent Washington | Covelo | London www.islandpress.org All Island Press books are printed on recycled, acid-free paper.

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