Gulf Coast Community
Handbook
Lindsay M. Cross
Tampa Bay Estuary Program
National Estuary Program (NEP):
Local watershed programs making a difference
Partners vital to our success
Priority Issues in Tampa Bay
Water and Sediment
Quality
Dredged material
management
Bay Habitats
Spill Prevention and
Response
Fish and Wildlife
Public Access
Invasive Species
Climate Change
Education
Climate Ready Estuaries
• Program through US Environmental Protection Agency
to work with National Estuary Programs and coastal
management community to:
1. Assess climate change vulnerabilities
2. Develop and implement adaptation strategies
3. Engage and educate stakeholders
Publications
Gulf Coast Community Handbook
• Identify adaptation strategies that incorporate
resiliency to climate change as a component of
habitat restoration and protection plans
• Focus on specific case studies from the Gulf region
• Guidebook for other coastal communities that
provides concrete examples of how to improve
habitat resiliency along the Gulf coast
Handbook Contents
• Executive Summary
• Introduction
• Overview of Climate Change Science
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Sea Level Rise
Storm Impacts and Extreme Weather
Changes in Precipitation and Temperature
Impacts to Flora and Fauna
Ocean Acidification
Gulf of Mexico Impacts
Storm Impacts
• Gulf of Mexico Case Studies
• Step-by-Step Recommendations
• Recommended Readings
Overview of Climate Science
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change
National Climate
Assessment
Restore America’s
Estuaries
Predicted impacts of climate change. Source: US Environmental Protection Agency
Sea Level Rise
• Local measurements (St. Pete
Pier) document ~ 1”/decade
• Rate expected to increase
• Communities can use
scenarios based on the
“tolerance of risk”
Source: thisnessofthat.blogspot.com; Allison et. Al.,
The Copenhagen Discussions, 2009; NOAA (2012)
Scenario
SLR by 2100
Highest
6.6 feet
Intermediate-High
3.9 feet
Intermediate-Low
1.6 feet
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Storm Impacts and Extreme Weather
• Sea level rise may increase
intensity of extreme weather
events
• Major flooding more common
• Barrier islands vulnerable
Source: Tom McKenzie, unknown
Changes in precipitation and temperature
• Warmer air temperatures
will impact precipitation
patterns and intensity
• Greater variability
predicted
Source: Irfan Khana, IPCC, jungeree.com
Impacts to Flora and Fauna
• Examples of habitat migration or squeeze
• Changes in habitat ranges
Ocean Acidification
• pH decrease of 0.1 =
25% increase in acidity
• Threatens marine creatures
– Coral reefs
– Shellfish
– Algae
Source: University of Queensland, IPCC 2007
Additional Gulf of Mexico Impacts
• Land subsidence could
exacerbate sea level rise
– Oil and gas extraction
– Pumping of groundwater
• Significant wetland losses
– Louisiana loses a football fieldsized wetland every hour
Sourcenrcs.usda.gov, polarsat.com
Case Studies
• Highlight activities at Gulf Coast NEPs and NERRs
• Examples of collaborative projects as well as individual
initiatives
National Estuary Programs
Coastal Bend Bays & Estuaries, TX
Galveston Bay, TX
Barataria-Terrebonne Estuary, LS
Mobile Bay, AL
Tampa Bay, FL
Sarasota Bay, FL
Charlotte Harbor, FL
National Estuarine Research Reserves
Mission-Aransas, TX
Grand Bay, MS
Weeks Bay, AL
Apalachicola, FL
Rookery Bay, FL
Visualizing Sea level rise in Sarasota Bay:
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
• Web-based sea
level rise
visualization tool
• 3 sea level rise
and 3 (additive)
storm height
scenarios
• Overlays for
conservation
areas and
drainages
Source: SBEP
Habitat creation at North Lido Park, FL:
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
• Mosaic of wetland habitats, including a new tidal
channel with connection to Sarasota Bay
• Fill material used to create rolling dunes
• Restoration tested during tropical storm Debby
Source: Jay Leverone, Sara Kane
Adaptation plan for Punta Gorda, FL:
Charlotte Harbor NEP
• Extensive community-based effort
• Vulnerability, Adaptation and Acceptability Games
• Suite of strategies for adaptation, protection, planned
relocation and accommodation through 2200
Source: Lisa Beever
Effects of Everglades restoration on sharks in Rookery
Bay, FL: Rookery Bay NERR
• Restoration in
Everglades will improve
distribution of
freshwater
• Sharks indicate healthy
salinity regimes
Source: RBNERR, US Army
Corps of Engineers
Making marshes in Nueces Bay, TX:
Coastal Bend Bays & Estuaries NEP
• 160-acre intertidal marsh restoration
• Marsh terraces and berms created at higher
elevation
• Will combat erosion and subsidence
Source: HDR, Lammon Aerial Photography
Coastal habitat mosaics, Schultz Preserve, FL:
Tampa Bay Estuary Program
• Upland, spoil-created peninsula restored to
braided tidal creek system
• 120 acres of subtidal, marsh and coastal uplands
• Tidal emergent wetlands can migrate upslope
Source: Hillsborough County, Aerial Innovations
Impact on critical coastal habitats; Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Estuary Program
• Modeling of 40 cm (~1.3’) to 2 meters (~6.6’) SLR
• Impact to coastal habitats under 2 scenarios:
– Allow Habitat migration
– Protect dry land
Source: Ed Sherwood
King Tide Photo Initiative:
Sarasota Bay and Tampa Bay Estuary Programs
• Summer 2012: >150
photos documenting
extremely high tide
• Winners judged by
community members
Source: NASA,
Larry Stults
Step-by-Step Recommendations
• Assess current vulnerabilities
• Map areas that may become
inundated
• Identify habitats for protection
and preservation
• Prioritize strategies that
incorporate environmental
benefits
• Engage business community
• Develop post-disaster recovery
plans
Source: Tracy Skrabal, rosiemade.com
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Electronic and hard copies available
www.tbeptech.org/DATA/cre/gulfcoasthandbook.pdf
lcross@tbep.org
(727) 893-2765