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About Climate Interactive
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Climate Interactive’s Mission
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Climate Interactive Provides
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Climate Interactive Project Partners
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Reach 2˚C?
•  What will the temperature be in 2100 if:
–  the US reduces 30% below 2005 by 2050
–  the EU reduce 60% below 1990 by 2040
–  China reduces carbon intensity by 60% by
2030
–  and the rest of world continues as projected?
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C-ROADS Motivation: Difficulty Comparing
Proposals and Estimating Aggregate Impact
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Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete
environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to
all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and
long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the
Parties.
–  Christiana Figueres, former UNFCCC negotiator for Costa Rica, now
Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, 2009
...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they
were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the
increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries
emission reduction ranges. They all seem to use different base years
and assumptions: how can we make any sense of them?
commented one negotiator.
–  Press Report, ENB, 2009
–  http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html
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C-ROADS Simulator
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C-ROADS Model Structure
Other GHG
emissions
User Input
(6 or 15 nations/blocs)
Specific
country
emissions
Deforestation
Afforestation
User Input
Total fossil
fuel CO2
emissions
Other GHG
cycles
Carbon
cycle
GHGs
in atm
(CH4, N2O, PFCs, SF6,
HFCs, aerosols, black
carbon)
Climate Temp
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Net CO2 emissions
from forests
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Carbon Cycle and
Radiative Balance
•  CO2
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SF6 etc.
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Forcings
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layers)
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C-ROADS Scientific Review Panel
•  Dr. Robert Watson - Department for Environment, Food and
Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC -- Panel Chair
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Dr. Eric Beinhocker - McKinsey Global Institute
Dr. Klaus Hasselmann - Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Dr. David Lane - London School of Economics
Dr. Jorgen Randers - Norwegian School of Management BI
Dr. Stephen Schneider - Stanford University
Dr. Bert de Vries - Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency, RIVM
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C-ROADS Calibration to AR4 Scenarios
Courtesy of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Source: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Summary for Policy Makers. Figure SPM.5. Page 14.
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Scientifically rigorous AND
useful to decision-makers
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Dr. Robert Watson,
Past Chair, IPCC
C-ROADS This very rapid
simulation model reproduces the
response properties of state-of- the-art
three dimensional climate models very
well and with sufficient precision to
provide useful information for its
intended audience."
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Senator John Kerry
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U.S. State Department’s J.
Pershing Presenting to the UN
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Energy and Climate System Overview
Economic
Social
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effects
Changes to:
Capital stocks (vehicles)
Efficiency (mpg)
Utilization (driving)
Transportation
Changes to:
Capital stocks (plants)
Efficiency (emissions per)
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CO2 FF Comparisons to EMF and EIA
100
GtonsCO2/Year
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2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
Time (Year)
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2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
Calibration CO2 Emissions[ETSAP TIAM] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[GTEM] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[IMAGE] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[MERGEoptimistic] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[MERGEpessimistic] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[MESS] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[MINICAM] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[POLES] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[SGM] : Ref
Calibration CO2 Emissions[WITCH] : Ref
EIA CO2 emissions : Ref
En-ROADS CO2 Emissions from Energy
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Thank You – Q&A
For more information:
www.ClimateInteractive.org
For follow-up, please contact:
Travis Franck
On Twitter: ClimateInteract
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