(.!,/(!)&-( )&#8'%#(! ,5#-,(% Q,"OMNP 1 About Climate Interactive 2 Climate Interactive’s Mission • ) '*,)5"&(*)&#8,&5(.(&8-#-), (!)/.),-=-=(."*4&#-."8.%& &#'.((,!8-8-.'- – .8*)&#/&=().!.#(.)*,/-(-"#* • %)&#'. (.,/5)4--)(*,)5##(! ."-..,4-.=51=,=()*(.))&- – "#&6)-)'(&8-#-4*)(,+4-.=)4,!)&#- .)'*)6,).",-.))#(*((.(&8-#--#&8= +4#%&8=(#(-#(/&&8,#!),)4-'((, PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 3 4,42(!C!.))&-"&**)*& %!% .),--."#!!-. "&&(!-#(!)4,&#5-)(,."@ 4 Climate Interactive Provides • • • • • • • • • • • CG&#'.*#5,5#6(#-#)(4**),.H (CG(,!8*#5,5#6(#-#)(4**),.H &#'.."68-D#**&#/)(B')#& C,(DG6C")-.-#'-)(CH ),&&#'.G#(C*,-)((!)//)(7,#-B6,!'H (8-.),&#-.,)4!".')&G&#'.*./)((,-#&#(8H .,C(,!874--#'4&.),I*,)*)-J &#'.),),@),! &#'.)'(.4'G&-"C-)(&#(-#'4&.),H #,'C&5&&.,#&/&#.8')&D,)(.7 ,)--#&#./)(-%#&&- PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 5 Climate Interactive Project Partners /RJRV5HVSHFWLYHFRS\ULJKWKROGHUV$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG7KLVFRQWHQWLVH[FOXGHGIURPRXU&UHDWLYH &RPPRQVOLFHQVH)RUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQVHHKWWSRFZPLWHGXKHOSIDTIDLUXVH PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 6 Reach 2˚C? • What will the temperature be in 2100 if: – the US reduces 30% below 2005 by 2050 – the EU reduce 60% below 1990 by 2040 – China reduces carbon intensity by 60% by 2030 – and the rest of world continues as projected? PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 7 C-ROADS Motivation: Difficulty Comparing Proposals and Estimating Aggregate Impact • • Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the Parties. – Christiana Figueres, former UNFCCC negotiator for Costa Rica, now Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, 2009 ...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries emission reduction ranges. They all seem to use different base years and assumptions: how can we make any sense of them? commented one negotiator. – Press Report, ENB, 2009 – http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 8 C-ROADS Simulator &#'.*#5,5#6(#-#)( 4**),. 9 C-ROADS Model Structure Other GHG emissions User Input (6 or 15 nations/blocs) Specific country emissions Deforestation Afforestation User Input Total fossil fuel CO2 emissions Other GHG cycles Carbon cycle GHGs in atm (CH4, N2O, PFCs, SF6, HFCs, aerosols, black carbon) Climate Temp Sea Level rise Net CO2 emissions from forests Forests #(/&&8,5#6>4(--#&8)(&*.)*> ',!-,)'.')4.) >",6#."&&!,)4*- G@!@==="#(=-H> *(C)7?+4/)(-(--4'*/)(-.,(-*,(. 10 Carbon Cycle and Radiative Balance • CO2 • CH4, N2O • PFCs, HFCs, SF6 etc. Other Forcings (10 0 layers) layers) • Aerosols, Black carbon • Carbon & heat transfer between surface & deep ocean PBNNBNP 0F*UDZ+LOO,UZLQ$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG7KLVFRQWHQWLVH[FOXGHGIURPRXU&UHDWLYH &RPPRQVOLFHQVH)RUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQVHHKWWSRFZPLWHGXKHOSIDTIDLUXVH 6RXUFH6WHUPDQ-RKQ'%XVLQHVV'\QDPLFV6\VWHPV7KLQNLQJDQG0RGHOLQJIRU D&RPSOH[:RUOG0F*UDZ+LOO,UZLQ 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 11 C-ROADS Scientific Review Panel • Dr. Robert Watson - Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC -- Panel Chair • • • • • • Dr. Eric Beinhocker - McKinsey Global Institute Dr. Klaus Hasselmann - Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie Dr. David Lane - London School of Economics Dr. Jorgen Randers - Norwegian School of Management BI Dr. Stephen Schneider - Stanford University Dr. Bert de Vries - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RIVM PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 12 C-ROADS Calibration to AR4 Scenarios Courtesy of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Source: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policy Makers. Figure SPM.5. Page 14. PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 13 Scientifically rigorous AND useful to decision-makers 3KRWRJUDSKRI5REHUW:DWVRQUHPRYHGGXHWRFRS\ULJKWUHVWULFWLRQV 3KRWRJUDSKLVLQWKHSXEOLFGRPDLQ Dr. Robert Watson, Past Chair, IPCC C-ROADS This very rapid simulation model reproduces the response properties of state-of- the-art three dimensional climate models very well and with sufficient precision to provide useful information for its intended audience." PBNNBNP Senator John Kerry "5.).&&8)4EICJ 6),%-=#.#-#'*),.(.=(#.#- &,8!2(!,) #--'#(/)(=@@@ 4-#.; 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 14 U.S. State Department’s J. Pershing Presenting to the UN 81)&&&$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG7KLVFRQWHQWLVH[FOXGHGIURPRXU&UHDWLYH&RPPRQV OLFHQVH)RUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQVHHKWWSRFZPLWHGXKHOSIDTIDLUXVH PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 15 C4'',8 • • • • • • • #!),)4- &,4-,-((!!-.%")&,- )4-)(*)&#8+4-/)(- ),'4&.#(&(!4!)*)&#8 ,(-*,(.=)*( **,)"& &C/'=.)"&*4#&#(.4#/)( 16 Energy and Climate System Overview Economic Social Environmental effects Changes to: Capital stocks (vehicles) Efficiency (mpg) Utilization (driving) Transportation Changes to: Capital stocks (plants) Efficiency (emissions per) Utilization (production) Changes to: Capital stocks (buildings) Efficiency (emissions per) Utilization (use) Permafrost exposure Soil respiration Total fossil fuel CO2 emissions Electrical generation Residential Commercial Industrial Changes to: Afforestation Deforestation Other GHGs Carbon cycle Land use CO2 emissions CO2 Sequestration Albedo Climate Temp GHGs in atm g Mo n i t s i Ex Impacts del Forests Growth rates Costs and Savings PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 17 * 18 ((C • "#(!-.%/'? – )'',#&#9/)(=*,'#2(!=((#(!=()(-.,4/)(&&.% /'@ – )(C&.,#(4--G@!@=,-(#(4-.,8H(&.,#=4. ().#(-.(.()4-&8@ • 4--4#&--4--? – )-.-)(,!8-4**&#-&&-4'4&/57*,#(#-!#(@ – #-#(!',%.-",),."(6."4#&-'#&#,#.8=(,)(- .",")#(,-.,4.4,=-).".-4---)(#.-&@ • ",,)(-.,#(.-? – #-#(!)-.-(-,#.8)'.,#&-*4.&#'#.-)(."*)!,)6." #((6."@ – )&=)#&=(!-,-)4,-,&#'#.@ • '((-4**&8,&#(%? – (,!8'(&&-#(,!8*,#-,#-=(&#%6#-@ 19 ,'#(!=)&#(!=.= (,)$.' • )(#!!,6&= • -8,)(#(= • )'#'(= (.( • ,5#-,(%= • &,58 • ,6)(-= • • • • • • • .*"(#4&8= "#&#= ."6#(= ),##!&= )"(.,'(= &,)(,#"= #(,#!". 4(*,#',#&88? 20 (C(,!88-.' .,4.4, 21 (C#'4&/)(.,4.4, (,!8'( • • • •• &! !& ./)(,8K ')#& &K)(C& !#(!= #(8= K,.,).- )()'8 8 • )&#8BK • • • ,)(*,# 4-##- "(#& ,%.",)4!" (,!84**&8 (,! & •• •• • • • ! !& R.8*- !#(!&8- K-4-- ,#-=&,(#(!= )'*&'(.,8 --.-=,-)4, 5#& ,)' F.",!--- F&(4- &#'.#'*.- • • • • O'#--#)(- ,)'(,!8 ,)4/)( •• • ).&'#--#)(- )((.,/)(- 4'4&/5 '#--#)(- '*,.4, "(! &5&,#- .",#'*.- • • •• •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• D8('#!(,&+4#&#,#4' • D#(.,.'*),&)*/'#9/)( • #(#D*,/&+4#&#,#4'=#(.,.'*),& )*/'#9/)( • D(,!8-8-.')*/'#9/)( • D"8,# • D"8,#.)*C)6(B)1)'C4* • ),&(D!(,&+4#&#,#4' • D.)*C)6()*/'#9/)( • D#(.,.'*),&)*/'#9/)( • D"8,#(,!8B()!()4-!,)6." • D#(.,.'*),&)*/'#9/)( 25 )'*,)4,4.4,(,#)-.) ")-).",#'4&/)(- CO2 FF Comparisons to EMF and EIA 100 GtonsCO2/Year 75 50 25 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Calibration CO2 Emissions[ETSAP TIAM] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[GTEM] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[IMAGE] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[MERGEoptimistic] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[MERGEpessimistic] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[MESS] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[MINICAM] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[POLES] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[SGM] : Ref Calibration CO2 Emissions[WITCH] : Ref EIA CO2 emissions : Ref En-ROADS CO2 Emissions from Energy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hank You – Q&A For more information: www.ClimateInteractive.org For follow-up, please contact: Travis Franck On Twitter: ClimateInteract PBNNBNP 666@&#'.#(.,/5@),! 31 !" #$%&'($) %"*!+ ,'-%$'./: