Political Science 462 Russian Foreign Relations CRN: 27167 Eastern Michigan University Winter 2015 Tuesday & Thursday, 11:00-12:15 p.m., 420 Pray Harrold Judith Kullberg Office: 601-S Pray Harrold Telephone: (734) 487-1405 (office) (734) 487-3113 (depart.) Email: judith.kullberg@emich.edu Office hours: Tues. & Thurs. 1-3 p.m. and by appointment Course Description Since its emergence as a world power under the leadership of Peter the Great in the late 17th century, Russia has profoundly affected the character of the international system. Occupying one sixth of the earth’s surface at its peak in the 19th century, the wealth and military might of the Russian Empire shaped the European state system from the time of the Napoleonic wars. Russia’s global influence increased after the tsarist autocracy collapsed during World War I and the Bolsheviks seized power in the 1917 Revolution. The Bolsheviks rejected the dominant European liberal model of capitalism and constitutional democracy, opting instead for a new type of political order dominated by a single party ruling in the name of the working class. The enmity between the USSR and the liberal democracies of the West and the USSR was put aside during WWII, when they formed a military alliance to defeat Nazi Germany and its allies. However, almost immediately following the war, conflict and competition began again. The division of Europe into the Soviet-dominated Warsaw Pact and the U.S.-led NATO alliance after World War II, combined with the acquisition of nuclear weapons by both sides, precipitated the Cold War. The Cold War profoundly affected the character of the international system in the second half of the 20th century, and its legacy can be seen in many dimensions of global politics. Mikhail Gorbachev’s attempt to fundamentally reform Soviet communism included a revolution in Russia’s relations with the world, “the new political thinking,” which led to the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The collapse of the Soviet Union transformed the international system: for a time the old 20th century paradigms in foreign policy no longer applied and the role and behavior of international organizations were fundamentally changed. During the Yeltsin era, Russia struggled to define itself as a nation and to determine its role in the international system. As the primary successor state of the USSR, Russia was still the largest nation in the world, and with its abundant natural resources and nuclear weapons, still a great power, albeit no longer a “superpower.” However, it was plagued with political and social instability and its new democratic and market institutions performed poorly throughout the 1990s, weakening its role and status in the international system. Within the political elite, resentful of the dominating role of the U.S. and NATO in the post-Cold War era, a desire for a return to great power status emerged. Upon his accession to the presidency in 1999, Vladimir Putin immediately began to recentralize power and strengthen the central state, in the belief that only a strong state will allow Russia to actively pursue its interests and influence world affairs. Since the beginning of the Putin era, Russia’s foreign policy has reflected the nationalist ideology of the Kremlin. The country’s current foreign policy strategy envisions Russia’s national interests as opposed to or in tension with the interests of the U.S., NATO, and the European Union. Strained relations between Russia and the West have contributed to a significant weakening of international security, for example in the paralysis of the United Nations Security Council in the face of several crises, including the civil war in Syria. In 2014, in response to a popular uprising that ousted the pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Russia seized Crimea, declared it to be part of the Russian Federation, and supported an insurgency of pro-Russian separatists groups in eastern Ukraine. In response, Western nations imposed economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia, which were expanded greatly after Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine on July 17. Armed conflict in the region since then, including direct exchange of fire between Ukrainian and regular Russian Army units that have sporadically operated within Ukraine, amounts to a war between Russia and Ukraine. How can we explain Russian’s current foreign policy and the decisions to use military force in Ukraine? What are the implications of an assertive or expansionist Russia for international security? What will be the effects – economic and political -- of the multiple rounds of economic sanctions that Western nations and Russia have placed on one another? Can Russia actually cut its ties to Europe and the U.S. and return to its historical position of isolation from the West? If so, what will be the long term effects on the Russian polity and society, and on the international system? These and related questions will be considered across the semester. Course Objectives Students will learn about and be able to describe the long-term trajectory of Russian international behavior, from the time of Peter the Great to the present. They will be able to describe, explain, and think critically about various theories of the determinants of Russian foreign policy. They will examine and analyze the connection between the domestic political and economic reforms that began in the 1980s and Russia’s foreign policy, and be able to describe those connections. They will develop a good understanding of the contemporary Russian foreign policy process and be able to play the role of a key actor in a simulation of the policy process. The will analyze the nation’s current international role and estimate its long-term impact on the international system of the 21st century. Readings The two primary texts for the course are listed below. They can be purchased at the EMU Bookstore or through an online bookseller, such as Amazon.com. Vladislav Zubok, A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev (University of North Carolina, 1987). ISBN: 9780807859582 Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity (Rowman and Littlefield, 2013). 3rd edition. ISBN: 9781442220010 All additional required readings are available in the course e-College companion site (www.emuonline.edu), either under Docsharing or Webliography. course reserve page at the Halle Library Course Reserves (http://reserves.emich.edu). All news articles that I distribute in class and/or post on e-Collge will also be considered required reading. Course Requirements Students are expected to: Read and think! The surest route to a good grade in this class (or any class) is to complete the assigned reading. You should complete the reading before the class for which it is assigned. The reading will introduce you to basic concepts and theories, challenge you to think critically about current issues, and encourage you to develop your own reasoned judgments on these issues. Lectures, discussions, films, and activities in class will reinforce the knowledge you acquire through reading; they cannot serve as a substitute for reading. Your mastery of the readings will be assessed in part through your use of concepts and information contained in the readings in discussion, research and writing. However, your grasp of course concepts and key facts will be assessed primarily by your performance on exams (see below). Attend class and participate in discussion Class attendance is strongly and positively correlated with performance. To encourage you to attend class and participate, I will award 50 points for participation. Research and write In order to help you develop a concrete understanding of the historical evolution of Russian/Soviet foreign policy and the current dilemmas faced by decision-makers, you will conduct research on a particular aspect of Russian foreign policy, such as bilateral relations with other major powers, participation and involvement in international organizations, arms sales, armed conflict, etc. The assignment will be distributed during the second week of class. Sub-deadlines for submitting sections of the paper, corresponding to the various segments of the course, will be established. The complete research project, 12-15 pages in length, will be due March 19. The finished paper will be worth 200 points. Participate in a foreign policy simulation Near the end of the semester, we will hold a two-class simulation of the Russian foreign policy process. Each student will be given a specific actor and role to play and will be expected to submit a 4-5 page briefing paper on their actor and his/her general policy orientations on April 7. The briefing paper will be worth 100 points and participation in the simulation will be worth 100 points toward the final grade. Take exams Mastery of course concepts will be primarily assessed by means of a midterm exam (February 16) and a comprehensive final exam (April 22). The midterm will be worth 100 points and the final 150 points. Exams will be composed of a mix of short answer/essay questions. A study guide will be posted on the course reserve site a week prior to each exam. Grading scale The total number of points that you can earn in the course is 700. Final grades will be determined according to the standard grading scale: 93-100% = A, 90-92% =A-, 87-89% =B+, 82-86% = B, etc. Late Assignments and Makeup Exams Except in cases of serious illness or family emergency, I will not accept late papers. Similarly, if you cannot participate in a debate or take an exam at the scheduled time due to illness or emergency, you must contact me prior to the debate or exam to reschedule. When requesting an extension or makeup exam, you must document the illness or emergency. Makeup exams will be in all-essay format. Classroom Etiquette We will discuss some controversial issues during the term. In order to facilitate a free exchange of ideas, I expect that everyone will respect one another’s views and behave in a mature manner during class. Interruption when another person is speaking, disparagement of the ideas or views of others, and any other activities or behaviors that disrupt the class or interfere with the exchange of ideas are not acceptable. Text messaging, use of laptops for surfing the internet and instant messaging, and any other inappropriate use of electronic devices will not be tolerated. Academic Dishonesty Plagiarism, which is the unacknowledged use of the words or ideas of another person as one's own, is forbidden by the EMU Code of Student Conduct. Any assignment that is plagiarized, even in part, will receive a score of zero. Similarly, cheating on an exam is forbidden and will also result in a zero score on the exam. A handout on plagiarism will be distributed in class prior to the first assignment and posted on the course reserve site. Schedule of Lectures and Readings January 6 Introduction: Russia and the World in the 21st Century January 8 Theories and Explanations, I Tsygankov, Russia’s Foreign Policy, Preface and Ch. 1, “Understanding Change and Continuity in Russia’s Foreign Policy,” pp. xxv-31. Zubok, A Failed Empire, preface January 13 Theories and Explanations, II Andrei Kokoshin, "The Phenomenon of Globalization and National Security Interests," in Andrei Melville & Tatiana Shakleina, eds. Russian Foreign Policy in Transition: Concepts and Realities (Budapest: Central European University, 2005), pp. 327-48. Aleksei Bogaturov, "The Syndrome of Absorption in International Politics," in Melville and Shakleina, pp. 292-310. Recommended Ted Hopf, Social Construction and International Politics (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2002), Ch. 1, pp. 1-38. January 15 Foreign Policy and the Tsarist State Robert H. Donaldson & Joseph L. Nogee, The Foreign Policy of Russia, Ch. 2, “The Tsarist Roots of Russia’s Foreign Policy,” 17-36 Vissarion G. Belinsky, "Russia and the West" (1834) Mikhail P. Pogodin, "The Wealth and Strength of Russia" (1837) January 20 Bolshevism, Revolution, and Socialism in One Country E. H. Carr, The Bolshevik Revolution, selection. Leon Trotsky, "Manifesto of the Communist International to the Workers of the World" http://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/works/1924/ffyci-1/ch01.htm Joseph Stalin, "The Theory of Socialism in One Country," and "Strategy and Tactics" Recommended Louis Fischer, The Soviets in World Affairs (Princeton University Press, 1951). January 22 World War II and the Onset of the Cold War Zubok, Ch. 1-2 David Holloway, “Stalin and the Bomb,” Carnegie Quarterly, Spring 1995. George Kennan ("X"), "The Sources of Soviet Conduct" (1947) http://www.historyguide.org/europe/kennan.html Andrei Zhdanov, "New Aspects of World Conflict" (1947) January 27 Stalinism and the External Empire Zubok, Ch. 3, “Stalemate in Germany, 1945-53” John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History, Ch. 2, “Cold War Empires: Europe” January 29 & February 3 The Khrushchev Era: Peaceful Coexistence and the Threat of Nuclear War Zubok, Ch. 4-6 John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History, Ch. 9, “The Cuban Missile Crisis.” Nikita Khrushchev, "Peaceful Competition or Destruction" (1959) February 5 Détente and Confrontation Zubok, Ch. 7-8 Richard Pipes, “Détente: Moscow’s View” in U.S.-Soviet Relations in the Era of Détente (1981). February 10 & 12 Gorbachev, "New Political Thinking," and the End of the Cold War Zubok, Ch. 9-10 Tsygankov, Ch. 2, “The Cold War Crisis and Soviet New Thinking,” pp. 33-56. Mikhail S. Gorbachev, My Country and the World (selection) Recommended Jan Adams, A Foreign Policy in Transition (Duke University Press, 1992) William Odom, The Collapse of the Soviet Military (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1998). February 17 Liberal Democracy and Foreign Policy in Post-Soviet Russia Tsygankov, Ch. 3, “The Post-Cold War Euphoria and Russia’s Liberal Westernism,” pp. 57-94. Judith Kullberg, "The End of New Thinking: Elite Ideologies and the Future of Russian Foreign Policy," Mershon Center for International Relations, July 1993. Andrei Kozyrev, “Russia: A Chance for Survival,” Foreign Affairs 71:2 (1992) The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (1993) February 19 Midterm Exam March 3 The Statist Revival Tsygankov, Ch. 4, “New Security Challenges and Great Power Balancing,” pp. 95131. Yevgeny Primakov, "International Relations on the Eve of the 21st Century: Problems and Prospects” (1996) Neil Malcolm and Alex Pravda, “Democratization and Russian Foreign Policy,” International Affairs 72:3 (1996). Vladimir Putin, "Russia at the Turn of the Millennium" (1999) Recommended Hopf, Ch 4, “Historical, Internal and External Others: Russian Identity in 1999,” 153-210 and Ch. 5, “The Unipolar World: Recentering a Peripheral World in 1999,” pp. 211-258 March 5 Russia’s Return: The Early Putin Era Tsygankov, Ch. 5, “The World after September 11 and Pragmatic Cooperation,” pp. 133-174. Anatoly Torkunov, "International Relations after the Kosovo Crisis," in Melville & Shakleina, pp. 281-290. The Foreign Policy Conception of the Russian Federation, 2000 March 10 The Foreign Policy Process Aleksei Salmin, "The Backside of Foreign Policy,” 2002 March 12 Central Asia Roy Allison, “Strategic Reassertion in Russia’s Central Asia Policy,” International Affairs 80:2 (2004), 277-203. Martin C. Spechler and Dina R. Spechler, “Russia’s Lost Position in Central Eurasia,” Journal of Eurasian Studies 4 (2013), 1-7. Younkyoo Kim and Fabio Indeo, “The New Great Game in Central Asia post 2014: The US ‘New Silk Road’ Strategy and Sino-Russian Rivalry,” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 43 (2013), 275-286. March 17 Russia and the West Tsygankov, Ch. 6, “U.S. Regime Change Strategy and Great Power Assertiveness,” pp. 175-205 Sergei Rogov, "A New Turn in Russian-American Relations," M&S, 349-374. Mikhail Gorbachev, “Address to Seton Hall: Democracy in Russia and the World Today” (2005). March 19 Security in a Changing International System Tsygankov, Ch. 7, “Global Instability and Russia’s Search for a New Direction,” pp. 207-229. Aleksei Arbatov, "Russian's Security in a Multipolar World," M&S, 311-326 March 24 The Georgian War Marcel H. Van Herpen, Putin’s Wars: The Rise of Russia’s New Imperialism, Ch. 13-15, p. 205-237. March 26 The Syrian Civil War Judith Kullberg, “Syria and the ‘Battle for Russia’: Ideology Identity and the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation” Roy Allison, “Russia and Syria: Explaining Alignment with a Regime in Crisis,” International Affairs 89:4 (2013), 795-823. Mark N. Katz, “Russia and the Conflict in Syria: Four Myths,” Middle East Policy 20:2 (2013), 38-46. March 31 & April 2 Crisis in Ukraine Alexander J. Motyl, “Putin’s Zugzwang: The Russia-Ukraine Standoff,” World Affairs 177:2 (July 2014). John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions that Provoked Putin,” Foreign Affairs (September-October 2014), 7789. Other readings TBA April 7 The View from the West: A New Cold War? Commision on Security and Cooperation in Europe, The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West (2008) Michael G. Roskin, “The New Cold War,” Parameters (2014) Alice Slater, “No More Cold War: Calling for Peaceful Settlement in Ukraine” Foreign Policy in Focus (September 3, 2014). Other readings TBA April 9 Trends and Directions: Russia and the International System in the 21st Century Tsygankov, Ch. 8, “Conclusions and Lessons,” pp. 231-257. Recommended Hopf, “Identity, Foreign Policy, and IR Theory,” pp. 259-295 April 14 & 16 Foreign Policy Simulation Thursday, April 23 Final Exam 11:00-12:30 p.m.