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ESD.70J / 1.145J Engineering Economy Module
Fall 2009
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ESD.70J Engineering Economy
Fall 2009
Session One
Michel-Alexandre Cardin
Prof. Richard de Neufville
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
1
Today’s class outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction
Course outline and philosophy
About Excel
Session 1 – base case construction
and sensitivity analysis
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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About this class
• ESD.70 – Excel modeling
• Learn enough Excel to:
– Appreciate the power of Excel
– Gain confidence in your own Excel modeling
prowess
– Prepare for ESD.71
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Other courses
• More about uncertainty and flexibility in ESD.71 –
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
– ESD.70 provides necessary knowledge of Excel for ESD.71
– Introduction of advanced Excel techniques
• Want more?
– ESD.72: Engineering Risk Analysis
– ESD.712: Tools for Analysis: Design for Real Estate and
Infrastructure Development
– ESD.344: Real Options for Product and Systems Design
– ESD.77: Multi-Disciplinary Systems Design Optimization
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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This class is:
• Informal:
– Please ask questions at any time - A question not
asked is a waste of your tuition money!
– Compare notes/help each other
• Theoretically easy going:
– Covering a few relevant theories – you DON’T have
to learn theory to benefit from this class
– Just learn how to use them in Excel
• Take it for credit, or attend to learn/have fun
• For credit – no exam – one final assignment!
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Course Outline
Four (4) recitation-style sessions:
1. NPV, Data Tables, and Sensitivity Analysis
– today
2. Monte Carlo simulations
3. Modeling uncertainty using different
stochastic models and probability
distributions
4. Analyzing the system in the context of
flexibility
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Course Materials
•
Excel spreadsheets
– ESD70session# –1.xls : setup before the class
– ESD70session# –2.xls : reflects all the work done
in class
– Do the exercises with me Æ best way to learn
•
Cells marked as
are for you to fill
– Refer to the ESD70session# –2.xls to validate your
work
•
Lectures in PDF on the web
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Good Habits
• Help each other:
– Introduce yourself to your neighbors … now!
– It’s late in the day and everyone is liable to
tune-out intermittently. When you do:
• Check with your neighbor to catch-up
• Ask me – please do!
• Look-up solutions in ESD70session# –2.xls file
– Help your neighbor and he/she will help you
• Better than Facebook to meet new people…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Course Philosophy
• Decision-making with an eye towards the future
can be approached from two strategic directions:
– Deterministic – improving forecast (and making
the best decision based on the probabilities of the
expected outcomes)
– Dynamic – admitting that the forecast is likely to be
wrong (recognizing uncertainty explicitly and the
capacity to makes decisions along the way)
• Exercises built around analyzing the case of “Big
vs. Small”
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Human (in-)ability to forecast
Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.
Lord Kelvin – British Mathematician, Physicist, and
President of the British Royal Society, c. 1895
Everything that can be invented has been invented.
Charles H. Duell – Commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office,
1899
Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.
United Artists Executive – dismissing Ronald Reagan for the
starring role in the movie of THE BEST MAN, 1964
… weather … oil supply … stock market …
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Modeling with dynamic mentality
• Cannot ignore the intrinsic uncertainty of
the future Æ DYNAMIC mentality in
decision-making to the rescue
• Excel is a decent tool for decision analysis
• We teach you how to unleash the power of
Excel to model in a dynamic setting
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Why Excel?
• Seems too simple …
• Why not something more exotic, like Matlab, C++,
etc?
• Excel is a LOT more POWERFUL than you think
• Excel is ubiquitous
• Excel forces you to build your models at a granular
level – great for learning the nuts and bolts
• Knowledge of Excel is assumed in ESD.71 and in
many real-world modeling situations
• Excel models are relatively easy to explain,
understand and debug
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Why not Excel
• It will crash on you
– Not if, but when…
• Performance limitations
• Certain functionality constraints
– It will take you VERY far, but at some point
you may need to get really serious
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Recommended versions
• Class supported in Excel 2007 for PC, and
Excel 2004 for Mac
• Why?
– Excel 2007 widely used on PC
– Excel 2008 for Mac does not support Solver and
other functionalities required for class
• Make sure you have one of those installed!
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Session one – Big vs. Small
• Objectives:
– Good spreadsheet setup habits to facilitate
Sensitivity Analysis
– Charts
– One-way/Two-way Data Tables
– Goal Seek
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Proper spreadsheet setup
• Programming/modeling Î debugging
• Sensitivity Analysis requires input changes
Good habits that will make your life easier:
• Enter inputs in a separate area or a sheet
• Set up the calculations by formulas linked to
entries => NEVER HARD CODE INPUTS
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Net Present Value (NPV) primer
• NPV = PV (Cash Inflows) - PV (Cash Outflows)
T
CFt
NPV = ∑
t
t = 0 (1+ r)
NPV ≥ 0 ⇒ valuable project
‘r’ reflects risk of project, expressed as required
rate of return. Also called discount rate or
opportunity cost of capital. It is a “translation
factor” between present and future money
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Set up NPV base case
Open ESD70session1-1.xls
(we have saved you the joy of manually
entering the data)
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Big vs. Small setup
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Building a computer plant
Deterministic demand projections for years 1, 2 and 3 are 300,000,
600,000, and 900,000 respectively
No sales in year 4 or thereafter
Plan A – a big plant; Plan B – one small plant each year;
Plants take a few months to construct
Big plant capacity of 900,000 with capital cost of $900 million
Each small plant capacity of 300,000 with capital cost of $300 million
No salvage value for Plan A; $300 million salvage value for Plan B
Discount rate for Plan A is 9%, and 8% for Plan B
The company will sell each computer for $2,000
Variable cost for Plan A is $1,280 due to economies of scale;
Variable cost for Plan B is $1,500
See “Entries” Worksheet…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Worksheet for Plan A
Year
0
Number of plants
Capacity
Demand
Production
Unit Price (Thousand dollar)
Revenue (Million dollar)
Unit Variable Cost (Thousand dollar)
Variable Cost (Million dollar)
900
Investment (Million dollar)
Salvage (Million dollar)
-900
Net value (Million dollar)
1
Discount Factor @ 9.0%
-900.0
Present Value (Million dollar)
162.1
NPV (Million dollar)
1
1
900
300
300
2
600
1.28
384
0
2
1
900
600
600
2
1200
1.28
768
0
216
0.917431
198.2
432
0.84168
363.6
3
1
900
900
900
2
1800
1.28
1152
0
0
648
0.772183
500.4
Don’t worry, we’ll go through this just now…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Inputs
Worksheet for Plan A
Year
0
Number of plants
Capacity
Demand
Production
Unit Price (Thousand dollar)
Revenue (Million dollar)
Unit Variable Cost (Thousand dollar)
Variable Cost (Million dollar)
900
Investment (Million dollar)
Salvage (Million dollar)
-900
Net value (Million dollar)
1
Discount Factor @ 9.0%
-900.0
Present Value (Million dollar)
162.1
NPV (Million dollar)
Solution
1
1
900
300
300
2
600
1.28
384
0
2
1
900
600
600
2
1200
1.28
768
0
216
0.917431
198.2
432
0.84168
363.6
3
1
900
900
900
2
1800
1.28
1152
0
0
648
0.772183
500.4
Calculations
Let’s now fill the yellow spaces together…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Give it a try!
Check with your neighbors…
Check the solution sheet…
Ask me questions…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Worksheet for Plan B
Year
0
Number of plants
Capacity
Demand
Production
Unit Price (Thousand dollar)
Revenue (Million dollar)
Unit Variable Cost (Thousand dollar)
Variable Cost (Million dollar)
300
Investment (Million dollar)
Salvage (Million dollar)
-300
Net value (Million dollar)
1
Discount Factor @ 8.0%
-300.0
Present Value (Million dollar)
156.5
NPV (Million dollar)
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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1
300
300
300
2
600
1.5
450
300
-150
0.925926
-138.9
2
2
600
600
600
2
1200
1.5
900
300
0
0.857339
0.0
3
3
900
900
900
2
1800
1.5
1350
300
750
0.793832
595.4
23
Conclusion?
• Which plan is better?
– Plan A: $162.1M OR;
– Plan B: $156.5M
• Express this finding as the difference
between NPVA and NPVB
– In cell D31, type “='Plan A'!C16-'Plan B'!C16”
– If positive, Plan A is better; if negative, Plan B is
better
– We’ll use this in a couple seconds…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Few Excel tricks
• Working with multiple sheets –
referencing fields across sheets and
files: “=Entries!C9”
• Entering Series
– Down…
• ‘$’ fixed cell references, ‘F4’ on PC,
‘command T‘ on Mac
• ‘F9’ on PC, ‘command =‘ on Mac
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Sensitivity Analysis
• With the “Big vs. Small” analysis, a
manager may want to know about:
– Impact of changing the discount rate for
Plan B to find the “best plan” between A
and B
– Impact of simultaneous changes in both
plans’ variable costs on the “best plan”
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Tools for Sensitivity Analysis
• Data Tables (1- and 2-way)
– What Excel was presumably invented
for…
• Charts
• Goal seek
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Data Tables
• Use Data Tables to see how different input values
affect the output
• Data Tables provide a shortcut for calculating,
viewing and comparing multiple versions in one
calculation (what-if scenarios or simulations)
• Two types of Data Tables:
– One-way Data Tables: evaluate how changes in one
input variable affect the output
– Two-way Data Tables (a matrix): evaluate how changes
in two input variables affect the output
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One-way Data Table
• Step 1: Create list of relevant input values
(Plan B discount rates)
– Either down a column (column-oriented) or across
a row (row-oriented)
– Varying discount rate for Plan B from 10.0% to
8.0%
NPV A - NPV B
– Incremental step 0.1% Plan B discount rate
10.0%
9.9%
9.8%
9.7%
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One-way Data Table
• Step 2: Enter the output formula
for NPV “='Plan A'!C16-'Plan
B'!C16” in Cell D40:
Output ->
I
n
p
u
t
s
– If Data Table is column-oriented,
output is in row above the first value
and one cell to the right of the
Plan B discount rate
column of values
NPV A - NPV B
5.66
10.0%
9.9%
• Cells holding output values
reference to cells in the model
Output values
Output formula
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One-way Data Table
• If the Data Table is roworiented, type the formula in the
column to the left of the first
value and one cell below the row
of values
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
Inputs
Output
31
One-way Data Table (Cont)
•
Step 3: create new output values
–
–
Select the range of cells containing the
formulas and values (no labels!)
Go to “Data” menu, select “Table”
•
–
Reference “Column input cell” to the input
variable whose value Excel varies as it
iterates through the Data Table (here Plan B
discount rate)
•
–
Data menu ⇒ ‘What-If Analysis’ in Excel 2007
If row-oriented, type the cell reference for the
input cell in the “Row input cell” box
Finally, click “OK” (then press F9)
•
•
This calculates the delta of NPVA – NPVB for
each discount rate for Plan B
Keeps discount rate for Plan A constant at 9%
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More Excel tricks
• ISSUE: Reference “input cell” MUST BE on
the same sheet as the data table
• SOLUTIONS:
• Insert Data Table on the Entries sheet OR
• Establish a reference cell on the Data Table sheet
referencing the input variable (worked for older Excel
versions)
• Once you create a Data Table, you can then
copy/paste it onto another sheet, as done in
sheets “One-way Data Table” and “Two-way
Data Table”
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Modifying Data Tables
• You can change the input values down the lefthand column of the Data Table. The Data Table
recalculates automatically
• You CANNOT change the matrix size. If you
want to extend the range of input values or
change the number of output variable columns,
you’ll need to erase and rebuild the Data Table
• You can explore Data Table with output
calculation beyond those in your model
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Give it a try!
Check with your neighbors…
Check the solution sheet…
Ask me questions…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Two-way Data Tables
• Same idea as One-way, only now we
explore output dependency on 2 inputs
• Expect a 2-D matrix
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Two-way Data Tables
• Step 1: Create one column and one row
varying input values for each of the inputs
– Plan A variable cost varies from $1,200 to
$1,450; for Plan B from $1,400 to $1,600
– Incremental step $100
Step 1
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Two-way Data Tables
• Step 2: Enter the output formula in the
upper-left corner of the data table matrix
• Step 3: Select the range of cells that
contains the formula and input values
Step 2
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
Step 3
38
Two-way Data Tables
•
Step 4: Menu “Data” Æ Table
– In the Row input cell and Column
input cell boxes, enter
corresponding output formula input
references
– Find out the corresponding delta of
(NPVA – NPVB) for each pair of
variable costs for Plan A and B
5.66
1.20
1.21
1.22
1.23
1.24
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
1.40
-26.98631191
-41.73833677
-56.49036163
-71.24238649
-85.99441135
1.41
-11.92001104
-26.6720359
-41.42406076
-56.17608562
-70.92811048
1.42
3.14629
-11.6057
-26.3578
-41.1098
-55.8618
39
Conditional formatting
• You can vary text appearance with values
• Step 1: Enter value range for varying number
appearance (i.e.: min/max)
• Step 2: Select the target formatting range
• Step 3: Define formatting rules: “Format”Æ “Conditional
Formatting”
– Home menu ⇒ Conditional Formatting ⇒ Highlight Cell Rules
in Excel 2007
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Give it a try!
Check with your neighbors…
Check the solution sheet…
Ask me questions…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Excel charts
• With the sensitivity analysis, we’ve
generated a lot data for ‘what-if’
scenarios
• Would it be great to generate a visual
aid to summarize this information?
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Excel charts
• Charts transform data into a graphical
illustration, useful for displaying analysis
results
• Create a chart using the Chart Wizard
– Click a “Chart…” under “Insert” menu
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The Chart Wizard
• There are 4 main steps in using
the Chart Wizard:
– Step 1: Chart Type = Bar Graph,
Scattered Graph, Pie Chart…
– Step 2: Source Data = data range of
various series
– Step 3: Chart Options = Titles, Axes,
Legend, Gridlines, etc
– Step 4: Chart Location = object or
chart sheet
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Excel charts
Plot the curve of NPVA – NPVB as a
function of discount rate for Plan B…
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Chart example
• Step 1: Chart Type
– XY(Scatter) with data
points connected
• Step 2: Source Data
• Step 3: Chart Options
– Titles, Legend, etc…
• Step 4: Chart Location
– As object in “Entries”
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
Sensitivity on Discount Rate for Plan B
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
Discount Rate for Plan B
46
Give it a try!
Check with your neighbors…
Check the solution sheet…
Ask me questions…
ESD.70J Engineering Economy Module - Session 1
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Goal Seek
• Vary (find) input value until the output equals
a desired target value
• Click “Goal Seek” under “Tools” menu on
Mac, Data ⇒ ‘What-If Analysis’ on PC
– “Set Cell”: cell whose value is changed to target
value
– “To Value”: desired target value
– “By Changing Cell”: precedent cell value affecting
desired output
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Goal Seek Example
• Determine the maximum variable cost of Plan
A such that Plan A is favored, given the
variable cost of Plan B is $1,500
– Set Cell: NPVA - NPVB (or C3 in “Goal Seek” tab)
– To Value: 0
– By Changing Value: variable cost for Plan A (or
D18 on “Entries” tab)
• Result?
– $1,283.83/unit
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Additional note: NPV function
• You may use NPV(rate,value1,value2, ...)
– “rate” is the discount rate for one time period
– “value1”, “value2”, ... are values you wish to
discount
– Excel’s NPV function assumes that all cash
flows occur at the END of their time period. In
other words, “value1” will be discounted at the
rate of 1/(1+r)
• See sheet…
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Additional note: Text function
• When you change an input variable, you may
wish that value to be propagated through a
text label:
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Additional note: Text function
• Text Functions used: ="Discount Factor @
"&TEXT(Entries!D3,"##.0%")
• “&”: Connects, or concatenates, two values to
produce one continuous text value
• “TEXT” function: Converts a value to text in a
specific number in a specific format
– #: format code for displaying only significant digits
and does not display insignificant zeros
– 0: format code for displaying insignificant zeros if a
number has fewer digits than there are zeros in
the format
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Questions?
Comments?
Suggestions?
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Summary
• Excel is a powerful tool for decision-making
• We’ve just scratched the surface
• Good habits will make your life easier
– Separate input variables, no hard coding
• Use Data Tables for Sensitivity Analysis
• One picture is worth a thousand words
– Excel charts
• Reach a target value using Goal Seek
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More learning material
• Excel 2004 for Mac:
http://web.mit.edu/macardin/Public/docsESD70/
DiscoveringMicrosoftOffice2004.pdf
• Excel 2007 for PC:
http://office.microsoft.com/enus/training/HA102255331033.aspx
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Next class…
With the deterministic base case NPV
sheet finished, we proceed to Monte
Carlo simulations
CRITICAL PART OF THE COURSE
See you tomorrow!
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