The Effects of Stock Lending on Security Prices: An Experiment Steven N. Kaplan,* Tobias J. Moskowitz* and Berk Sensoy** *University of Chicago and NBER and **Ohio State University 1 © 2010 Motivation: What is the impact of short selling? ! Does shorting make prices more efficient by reducing overpricing? – Miller (1977) predicts differences of opinion and short sales constraints can lead to overpricing – Diamond and Verrecchia (1987) argue traders will adjust to short sale constraints so that there is no overpricing ! Does shorting make prices less informative and destabilize markets? – Moving prices further away from fundamentals [Lamont (2004)] – Help reduce excess volatility [Hong and Stein (2003), Abreu and Brunnermeier (2001), Allen and Gale (1991)] 2 © 2010 Effect of short selling is an empirical question ! Attempts to measure the empirical effects of short selling from both the demand and supply side. – Holding supply constraints fixed, variation in shorting demand can measure the extent of overpricing or excess volatility – Holding demand fixed, variation in shorting supply can measure degree to which constraints matter ! Empirical efforts hampered by difficulty of identifying pure demand or supply shocks. – E.g., short interest, rebate rates, loan fees – Regulation shocks (2008 Emergency Order, SHO, shorting bans around the world) 3 © 2010 Previous Empirical Work ! Shorting demand: – Use direct measures of shorting costs (rebate rate or spread between the rebate and interest rates) [D’Avolio (2002), Geczy, Musto, and Reed (2002), Ofek, Richardson, and Whitelaw (2004), and Jones and Lamont (2002)] – Short interest [Desai et al. (2002) for a summary] ! Shorting supply: – Ofek and Richardson (2003) consider lockup expirations – Chang, Cheng, and Yu (2007), Bris (2008), Diether, Lee, and Werner (2009), Beber and Pagano (2010) on regulation changes ! Cohen, Diether, and Malloy (2008) look at both. ! Mixed results---hard to separate supply and demand. 4 © 2010 How Does Short Selling Work? (Cohen et al. (2004)) ! ! ! ! ! Investor who wants to short must find a lender. Sells shares short. Then: – Short seller must deliver shares to buyer by day T+3. – Short seller must maintain margin of >= 30% of short position. Proceeds of short sale deposited with lender. – Lender requires 102% of value of shares as collateral. » Fluctuates with value of shares. Lender invests collateral and earns interest. – Interest is reinvestment rate. Lender also pays borrower a rebate rate which is <= reinvestment rate. – Rebate rate can be negative. Lender’s profit = Reinvestment rate - Rebate rate = Loan Spread / Fee. – Stocks in highest demand (special) can have negative rebate rates. 5 © 2010 ! Recall: – Lender can recall the shares at any time. – Borrower must return shares in 7 business days. 6 © 2010 What do we do? ! Working with an anonymous money manager (greater than $15 B in assets) we randomly: – make available for lending 2/3 of Manager’s stocks and withhold a characteristic-matched other 1/3 of Manager’s stocks – focus on high loan fee stocks (loan fee > 25bps, with mean > 4%) ! Provides exogenous shock to supply of lendable shares – Supply shift not driven by changes in “The Manager’s” marginal lending cost – No plausible change in shorting demand – Focus on stocks with high loan fees, consistent with theory and empirical work suggesting where effects mostly reside [Duffie, 1996; Duffie et al. 2002; Kolasinski et al. 2010]. 7 © 2010 Experimental Design and Sample ! The Manager – Invests in mid and small-cap equities, inside and outside U.S. – Had not lent out stocks out of concern that doing so would: » lower the stocks’ prices » increase their volatility ! Motivation for experiment – Consider fees / benefits from lending shares vs. – Adverse effects / costs – Measure magnitude of net benefit/cost 8 © 2010 Experiment Phase 1 ! ! ! Shares available for lending on September 5, 2008. – Selected sample based on stockholdings as of June 30, 2008 – Manager owned 523 stocks worth in excess of $15 billion Stocks divided into two groups: 1. High expected loan demand group included stocks projected to have loan fee of at least 10 basis points(138 “Revenue stocks”) 2. Remaining group of 385 stocks we refer to as low demand or "nonrevenue" stocks. Within each group, randomly selected to lend out 2/3 and withhold 1/3 – One exception - lent three stocks in revenue stock group with the highest expected revenue to reduce opportunity cost – Results are the same if we exclude these three stocks 9 © 2010 ! Figure 1 - distribution of firm characteristics across the revenue stocks available to lend out and revenue stocks withheld – No significant differences between available and withheld groups ! Figure 2 – (same for) non-revenue stocks – No significant differences between available and withheld groups ! Randomization seems to work---observables no different across the treatment and control groups 10 © 2010 Additional Restrictions ! ! ! ! ! ! Shares traded on U.S. exchanges Shares that were in high demand – revenue stocks with gross loan fees of at least 25 basis points Loan size restricted to the lesser of: – three times the average daily trading volume (in past 30 days) – 5% of outstanding shares of issuer Additional restrictions yield 32 available and 20 withheld stocks. Concern: puts a limit on increase in supply from experiment Response: – these stocks are those with greatest shorting demand, so supply shocks should matter most for these stocks – Most variation comes from ownership and NOT these restrictions 11 – Cross-sectional results © 2010 ! Manager supply shock was likely only supply shock by any mutual fund during this period. – Rizova (2010) examines securities lending participation and revenue for most mutual funds (based on mutual fund annual reports on SEC Edgar website) – Only one mutual fund changed its participation and share supply to the loan market over the first phase » Our Manager ! While we cannot rule out change in participation of other institutions, seems likely our experiment was only major supply shock. 12 © 2010 Experiment Phase 2 ! We repeated the experiment from June 5 to September 30, 2009. – Same restrictions applied (except 25 basis points throughout) – Same randomization process – End up with 19 available stocks and 9 withheld stocks ! On October 1, all shares were made available for lending with a limit of $500 million 13 © 2010 This paper !"#$%#&'(""')*+ !"#$%#&',-../0 !"#$%#&'$"12#$ 314-#5'/42#"$'46',7465'%#5"6",5')8+ 14 © 2010 Shorting constraints and share prices !"#$%&'()$* +),-.(**/*0" &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&1#2*3, 4-")#0-3 56'*$"-")#0, 1#2*3, !7#(")0.&$#0,"(-)0", 15 © 2010 Sample Description – Table I ! Compare available stocks to withheld stocks on observable dimensions ! No differences across a variety of characteristics ! For first phase, only significant differences are higher mean (but not median) institutional ownership and marginally higher short interest ! For second phase, only significant difference is higher expected loan fee for available stocks ! Consistent with random variation ! But, if anything, differences will likely bias towards finding an effect 16 © 2010 Table I: Randomization 17 © 2010 Table I (continued) 18 © 2010 The Lending Experiment and Summary Statistics First phase: ! Lending period began September 5, 2008. – At peak, on September 17, over $700 million of securities lent out. ! September 18, 2008, Manager asked lending agent to call loans back. – Last shares returned on October 3, 2008. ! We examine effects on stocks lent out vs. those withheld during: – "lending period" (September 5 to 17). Max. 9 trading days. – "recall period" (September 18 to October 3). Max. 12 trading days. ! “Pre-period” is August 1-Sept. 4, 2008. 19 © 2010 The Lending Experiment and Summary Statistics Second phase: ! Lending period began June 5, 2009. – Up to $200 M lent out through August 7. – After August 7, up to $350 M lent out (and limit not reached) through September 30. ! Withheld stocks were made available on Oct. 1. ! “Lending period” is June 5 – Sept. 30. ! “Pre-period” is May 1 – June 4, 2009. 20 © 2010 Table II: Summary Statistics 21 © 2010 Does Experiment Provide a Sizeable Shock to Supply? ! Potential loan from experiment is: » For first phase, mean of 2.3 times average daily volume, 3.7% of institutional ownership, 18.3% of short interest » For second phase, mean of 2.3 times average daily volume, 6.9% of institutional ownership, 36.8% of short interest ! Increase in supply should have largest effect for stocks in our sample -high demand and illiquid [Kolansinki, Reed, and Ringgenberg (2010) ] ! And, at least for first phase, we know experiment was likely the only shock (from Rizova’s (2010) data) 22 © 2010 Does Experiment Provide a Sizeable Shock to Supply? ! Supplemental data from Data Explorers on loan fees and quantities » Available stocks hit by our supply shock » Withheld stocks not shocked ! For both lending and recall periods (and combined), strong positive correlation between number of shares we know were on loan and number of shares on loan reported by Data Explorers ! Strong positive correlation between number of new shares we lent on a given day and the corresponding number from Data Explorers ! Fees the Manager received highly correlated with Data Explorers average fees, but no perfectly so (0.69) "Segmented market 23 © 2010 Does Experiment Provide a Sizeable Shock to Supply? ! What happens to market loan fees for the available (treatment) stocks versus withheld (control) stocks? – If supply shock big enough, loan fees should decline significantly – Size of decline indicates importance of supply change – Table III » Measure loan fee changes for available vs. withheld stocks » Difference-in-differences approach comparing pre-lending fees and fees during the lending program » Use multiple measures of fees from multiple sources • Data Explorers • Lending agent • Actual fees received » Examine cross-section of size of loan 24 © 2010 Table III: Difference-in-Differences for Loan Fees Pa ne l A: Loa n Fe e Diffe re nce s-in-Diffe re nce s (%) First pha se Available - Withheld Available - Withheld mean Lending period fee ! pre-lending period fee (from Data Explorers) -0.09 Lending period fee (from Data Explorers) – -0.70 expected fee (from lending agent) [1.28] Actual lending fee – expected fee (from lending agent) -3.45** Actual lending fee – pre-lending period fee -2.84*** Se cond pha se Available - Withheld Available - Withheld median mean 0.05 -2.29* [0.45] -0.56** [1.13] 0.02 -2.27* -0.48 [1.14] -0.50 -3.01** -0.94** [1.30] [1.46] (from Data Explorers) median -1.82*** -3.03** [0.66] -1.19** [1.30] Pa ne l B: Re gre ssions of Cha nge s in Loa n Fe e on Loa n Size First pha se Available stocks only Actual lending fee Dependent variable = Actual loan/potential loan (% ) ! pre-lending fee Actual lending fee ! pre-lending fee -0.34*** -0.35*** -0.18** -0.17** [0.12] [0.09] [0.07] [0.06] Actual loan/shares outstanding (% ) N R -square Se cond pha se Available stocks only All stocks All stocks -3.55 [3.37] 32 0.28 32 0.03 -6.91** [2.94] 52 250.42 52 0.15 -6.09*** [1.53] 19 0.50 19 0.78 -5.83*** [1.41] 28 0.54 28 © 2010 0.79 Table IV: Return Differences ! Portfolio approach to avoid cross-correlation problem – Three sets of weighting schemes: » equal weight » value weight » weight by expected loan fee before the lending experiment ! If loan supply has pricing effect (at amounts being lent), then expect » decrease in returns of available relative to withheld stocks during lending period (when supply is exogenously increased) » reversal or increase in returns during recall period (when increase in supply is taken away) 26 © 2010 Table IV: Return Differences ! Available Pre-period Withheld Difference Lending period Available Withheld Difference Recall period Available Withheld Difference Panel A: First Phase Equal-weight 0.16 [0.47] 0.15 [0.47] 0.01 [0.26] (0.98) -0.26 [0.86] -0.72 [1.05] 0.47 [0.37] (0.24) -0.69 [1.50] -0.27 [1.49] -0.42 [0.50] (0.42) Value-weight 0.14 [0.48] 0.01 [0.40] 0.13 [0.29] (0.67) -0.19 [0.86] 0.09 [0.94] -0.28 [0.47] (0.57) -0.70 [1.47] 0.01 [1.46] -0.71 [0.77] (0.38) Expected loan fee-weight 0.23 [0.52] -0.09 [0.60] 0.32 [0.41] (0.44) 0.31 [0.84] -0.80 [0.93] 1.11*** [0.28] (0.00) -0.85 [1.59] -0.55 [1.58] -0.29 [0.49] (0.56) Panel B: Second Phase Equal-weight 0.67 [0.66] 0.44 [0.53] 0.23 [0.31] (0.46) 0.36 [0.23] 0.23 [0.20] 0.13 [0.13] (0.35) Value-weight 0.53 [0.56] 0.67 [0.51] -0.14 [0.35] (0.69) 0.34 [0.20] 0.13 [0.19] 0.21* [0.13] (0.09) Expected loan fee-weight 1.59 [1.02] 0.27 [0.61] 1.32* [0.75] (0.09) 0.35 [0.31] 0.22 [0.21] 0.13 [0.24] (0.59) 27 © 2010 Power of the Tests ! Each phase individually has only moderate statistical power ! Since two phases are independent, joint power is quite high – Consider Miller’s (1977) overvaluation hypothesis that returns during the lending period are negative (a one-tailed test) » equal-weighted results, the joint probability observe at least • 47 basis points (p-value = 0.12) in first phase (trial) • 13 basis points (p-value = 0.175) in second phase (trial) » relative to the null that returns in each phase are less than or equal to zero = 2.1% ! Alternatively, can ask what level of returns can we reject at conventional levels of significance taking into account both phases? – Rejection regions that combine both phases---Table V 28 © 2010 ! Table V: Power of the Tests Rejection Cutoff Values for Return Differences (in %) First phase Significance level Lending (lower bound) Recall (upper bound) Second phase Lending (lower bound) Combined phases Lending (lower bound) Equal-weighted 10% 5% 1% -0.04 -0.21 -0.60 0.26 0.48 0.94 -0.05 -0.10 -0.19 0.01 -0.03 -0.12 Value-weighted 10% 5% 1% -0.94 -1.16 -1.65 0.34 0.67 1.38 0.05 0.00 -0.08 0.01 -0.03 -0.12 Expected loan fee-weighted 10% 5% 1% 0.72 0.59 0.30 0.38 0.59 1.04 -0.18 -0.27 -0.43 0.31 0.25 0.12 29 © 2010 Volatility, Skewness, and Bid-Ask Spreads ! Differences-in-differences between stocks made available vs. those withheld from » pre-lending to lending period » lending period to recall period – Cross-sectional average of volatilities and skewness from daily returns over each period – Time-series average of daily bid-ask spreads of each stock (as % price) over the specified period ! If short sale constraints are important for price discovery: – Expect decrease in volatility, skewness, and bid-ask spread over the lending period – Expect reversal over the recall period If short sales are destabilizing, expect the opposite pattern ! 30 © 2010 Table VI: Changes in Volatility, Skewness, and Bid-Ask Spread Differences-in-Differences Between Available and Withheld Stocks from Pre-, Lending, and Recall Periods Volatility differences First phase Lending Recall pre-period lending Second phase Lending pre-period Skewness differences First phase Lending Recall pre-period lending Second phase Lending pre-period Bid-ask spread differences First phase Lending Recall pre-period lending Second phase Lending pre-period Equal-weight -0.82 (0.14) 0.50 (0.59) -0.59 (0.38) 0.09 (0.80) -0.06 (0.78) -0.46 (0.43) -0.04 (0.36) -0.68** (0.04) -0.04 (0.31) Value-weight -0.54 (0.50) -0.31 (0.79) -0.48 (0.39) 0.08 (0.86) 0.07 (0.82) -0.56 (0.28) 0.00 (0.88) -0.33** (0.03) -0.04 (0.18) Expected loan fee-weight -0.07 (0.94) 0.01 (1.00) -1.15 (0.49) -0.13 (0.85) 0.48 (0.29) -0.68 (0.19) -0.05 (0.63) -0.96 (0.13) -0.08 (0.30) 31 © 2010 Post-October 1, 2009 for 2nd Phase ! After October 1, 2009, manager lifted lending restrictions on withheld stocks. ! No significant effects on returns, volatilities, skewness, spreads over ensuing 3 months. ! Almost a “third” independent phase for a positive supply shock (this time on the formerly withheld stocks) 32 © 2010 Cross-sectional Results ! Average results not consistent with overvaluation hypothesis from short sale restrictions or destabilizing effects from stock lending ! Possible that average results mask important cross-sectional effects ! Interact whole host of stock and Manager holdings characteristics with a dummy variable = 1 if stock is available » Are there greater effects for stocks in which demand is high relative to supply? » Are there greater effects for larger supply shocks? 33 © 2010 Table VII: XS-Regression Lending Period First Phase Dependent variable: Second Phase Return Return Panel A: Lending period Short interest 0.05 [0.37] -0.08** [0.04] -0.03 [0.15] -0.01 [0.12] -0.01 [0.63] -0.03 [0.64] -0.06 [0.32] 0 [0.85] Potential loan to inst. own. (%) 0.15 [0.52] 0.14 [0.27] -0.24*** [0.00] -0.01 [0.43] -0.04 [0.33] -0.18 [0.40] -0.17 [0.17] -0.01* [0.08] Expected loan fee -0.04 [0.81] -0.11 [0.17] 0.04 [0.45] 0.01 [0.61] 0.06 [0.74] -0.88 [0.18] 0.21 [0.79] -0.01 [0.76] Short interest * Available -0.02 [0.77] 0.03 [0.48] 0.04 [0.17] 0.01 [0.12] 0.01 [0.49] 0 [0.98] 0.06 [0.39] 0 [0.50] Potential loan to inst. own. (%) * Available -0.37 [0.22] 0.05 [0.79] 0.24 [0.14] 0.01 [0.43] 0.04 [0.31] 0.2 [0.35] 0.22* [0.07] 0.01 [0.21] Expected loan fee * Available 0.06 [0.72] 0.16* [0.07] -0.06 [0.25] 0 [0.71] -0.06 [0.73] 0.74 [0.26] -0.27 [0.74] 0 [0.95] Available 1.81 [0.35] -1.81 [0.19] -1.32 [0.17] -0.22 [0.14] -0.18 [0.66] -1.83 [0.33] -2.09 [0.24] -0.02 [0.78] N R-squared 52 0.14 52 0.3 52 0.18 52 0.17 28 0.12 28 0.33 28 0.2 28 0.14 34 © 2010 Table VII: XS-Regression Recall Period Dependent variable: Return Panel C: Recall period Short interest -0.04 [0.12] 0.07 [0.21] 0.00 [0.81] -0.04** [0.02] Potential loan to inst. own. (%) -0.13 [0.32] -0.33 [0.15] 0.01 [0.83] -0.1 [0.17] Expected loan fee -0.01 [0.83] 0.15 [0.25] -0.05* [0.05] 0.04 [0.18] Short interest * Available 0.01 [0.87] -0.01 [0.88] 0 [1.00] 0.03 [0.11] Potential loan to inst. own. (%) * Available 0.01 [0.95] 0.46 [0.17] -0.06 [0.54] 0.07 [0.64] Expected loan fee * Available 0.01 [0.90] -0.15 [0.31] 0.06* [0.08] -0.05 [0.15] Available -0.47 [0.63] -1.16 [0.62] -0.12 [0.84] -1.18 [0.18] N R-squared 52 0.18 52 0.14 52 0.08 52 0.19 35 © 2010 ! Some possible effects from the cross-section: – Stocks with high expected loan fees (high demand relative to supply of shorting) » Experience more volatility in lending period » Reverses in recall period » Experience more negative skewness in lending period » Reverses in recall period – Consistent with a destabilizing effect for highest demand stocks ! But results not very consistent and largely support earlier average results that not much is affected 36 © 2010 Available stocks only (eliminating exogenous treatment) First Phase Dependent variable: Second Phase Return Return Panel B: Lending period, available stocks only Short interest 0.03 [0.29] -0.05*** [0.00] 0.01 [0.68] 0.00 [0.73] 0.00 [0.44] -0.03 [0.34] 0.00 [0.87] 0.00 [0.40] Potential loan to inst. own. (%) -0.22 [0.25] 0.19 [0.22] 0.00 [1.00] 0.00 [0.84] 0.00 [0.50] 0.02* [0.08] 0.06*** [0.00] -0.00** [0.05] Expected loan fee 0.02 [0.66] 0.05 [0.12] -0.03 [0.34] 0.00 [0.55] 0.00 [0.62] -0.14*** [0.00] -0.06* [0.09] -0.01 [0.13] Constant -0.22 [0.77] 0.31 [0.70] -0.08 [0.92] 0.00 [0.98] 0.30** [0.02] -0.83 [0.11] 0.02 [0.96] 0.00 [0.95] N R-squared 32.00 0.25 32.00 0.18 32.00 0.04 32.00 0.02 19.00 0.03 19.00 0.35 19.00 0.30 19.00 0.11 37 © 2010 ! Larger number of significant results, particularly in second phase – But relationships are spurious – Without control group, might make erroneous inferences ! Highlights importance of controlling for exogenous selection and the experimental design 38 © 2010 Robustness ! Other perturbations of the sample: » Including all available and withheld stocks (40 vs. 20; 23 vs. 9) » Removing the high loan fee stocks the Manager requested we lend (37 vs. 20; 22 vs. 9) » Removing all stocks whose loan fees decline to < 25 bps before the lending program (32 vs. 17; 19 vs. 8) » Removing the high loan fee stocks the Manager requested we lend and stocks whose loan fees decline to < 25 bps before the lending program (29 vs. 17; 18 vs. 8) ! Results available in Appendix and results are unchanged. 39 © 2010 Implications ! Theory: – We find supply shocks impact loan fees, but not asset prices – Why? » Duffie, Garleanu, and Pedersen (2002) show direct link between fees and prices, though link is not one-to-one » Diamond and Verrechia (1987) show no price effect, but have no loan fees in their model – Perhaps loan fees are not market clearing (agents ration shares, bundle them with other services) – Or, market for stock borrowing segmented from underlying market » Hedgers may exhibit price pressure in loan market but are too small to affect underlying share prices ! Future work to consider wedge between lending and underlying markets 40 © 2010 Implications ! Fund manager behavior: – *Initial motivation for the experiment – Our results suggest managers (at the margin) can earn revenue from lending shares without adversely affecting share prices – Our Manager came to this conclusion, lifting restrictions on Oct. 1 – How much revenue from lending? » Use all available + withheld stocks (total opportunity cost) » Use potential loan amount (roughly 65-70% of ownership) » Use three sets of fees: expected fees, actual fees + Data Explorers, actual + hypothetical fees » Can only calculate marginal revenue – Difficult to generalize and can’t say much about equilibrium effects » All else must be equal 41 © 2010 Table VIII: Marginal Revenue from Lending ! Numbers represent returns % per year per dollar ownership in high revenue stocks (which account for about 20% of $AUM) Potential Fee Revenue per $ Owned of Stocks on Loan (in %) ! First Phase Mean Median Second Phase Mean Median Expected loan fee 4.64 1.29 2.71 0.94 Actual loan fee 3.02 1.10 0.60 0.41 Actual (hypothetical) loan fee 2.78 0.83 0.49 0.35 First phase higher demand for shorting " higher fees 42 © 2010 Implications ! Policy: – Results suggest policies designed to restrict or alter supply of shares will not be effective or useful. » Consistent with other studies on the supply side. [Cohen, Diether, and Malloy (2007), Diether, Lee, and Werner (2009)] » We focus on very high demand stocks. – Caution: Hard to assess general equilibrium effects. – Policy debates could be better informed by experiments, where one channel can be isolated holding everything else fixed. 43 © 2010 Conclusion ! ! ! ! Experiment producing exogenous and sizeable supply shocks to lendable shares We find no adverse affects on underlying stock prices, despite moving loan fees Cross-sectional analysis yields similar findings No evidence of supply effects for level of supply changes we generate ! Implications for theory, manager behavior and policy – Strong conclusions for money manager behavior at the margin – Harder to draw conclusions for general equilibrium – May inform policy debates ! More experimentation worthwhile and useful 44 © 2010 Thank you. Steve Kaplan University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER skaplan@uchicago.edu 45 © 2010 46 © 2010 47 © 2010 Table II: Summary Statistics ! For days on which a security was on loan: – Average loan fee = 2.6% (first phase), 1.6% (second phase) » Varies from 1.4 to 976 bps – Shares on loan = 5% (first phase), 9% (second phase) of short interest » Varies from 0.12% to 16% – Average # shares lent 43% (first phase), 70% (second phase) of daily trading volume (off-exchange volume not included) – Average daily shares on loan about 1% of market cap – Maximum daily loan about 1.6% of total market cap » Varies from 0.03% to 5% ! Increase to shares available for lending a non-trivial amount and lots of cross-sectional variation 48 © 2010