The Fundamental Index™: Is it Just Repackaged “Value”? IQRF “Q” Group March 27, 2007 Rob Arnott / arnott@rallc.com This presentation was created by Research Affiliates. This presentation contains the current opinions of the presenter, which are subject to change without notice. This presentation does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Please see disclosure slide for more information For Educational Use Only Important Information No disclosure may be made to third parties (including potential co-investors) regarding any information disclosed in this presentation without the prior permission of Research Affiliates, LLC. By accepting this document you agree to keep its contents confidential and not to use the information contained in this document, and in the other materials you will be provided with, for any purpose other than for considering a participation in the proposed transactions. 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The general information contained in this material should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment. Any information and data pertaining to indexes contained in this document relates only to the index itself and not to any asset management product based on the index. No allowance has been made for trading costs, management fees, or other costs associated with asset management as the information provided relates only to the index itself. With the exception of data on Research Affiliates Fundamental Indexes, all other information and data are based on information and data available from public sources. Any inquiries relating to the transactions should be directed to Research Affiliates, LLC. The trade names Fundamental Index, Fundamental Indexing, RAFI, RAFI-Global, Fundamental Global, Fundamental K, Fundamental Q, Fundamental REIT, Fundamental 100, Fundamental 200, Fundamental 250, Fundamental 1000, Fundamental 2000, Fundamental 3000, Global Fundamental, Research Affiliates, Mainstreet Index, Mainstreet Indexing, Synthetic Strips, Virtual Mutual Fund, the RAFI logo and the Research Affiliates corporate name and logo are the exclusive intellectual property of Research Affiliates, LLC. Any use of these trade names and logos without the prior written permission of Research Affiliates, LLC is expressly prohibited. Research Affiliates, LLC reserves the right to take any and all necessary action to preserve all of its rights, title and interest in and to these terms and logos. Fundamental Index™, the non-capitalization method for creating and weighting of an index of securities, is the patentpending proprietary intellectual property of Research Affiliates, LLC (Patent Pending. Publ. Nos. US-2005-0171884-A1, US-2006-0015433-A1 and WO 2005/076812). For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 2 Malkiel / Exhibit 20 How Persistent is the Value Effect? RAFI™ graph not to scale … would be well off top of page! RAFI vs S&P 500 RAFI™ 12.7% RAFI™ tracks Growth/Value Cycle, but beats S&P far more often than value beats growth! Malkiel / Exhibit 21 How Persistent is the Size Effect? RAFI™ barely tracks Large/ Small Cycle, and beats S&P far more often than small beats Large! RAFI vs S&P 500 RAFI™ 1000: 15.2% RAFI™ 2000: 15.7% Our Biggest Bets are in Equities – Is Theory Leading Us Astray Here? Please see disclosure slide for more information The Return Drag of Cap-Weighting The Efficient Markets Hypothesis Price identically equals fair value for all assets at all times Hardly anyone believes this If price equals true fair value plus or minus an error … Overvalued will have higher market capitalization and higher valuation multiples than they should This creates the size and value effects How likely is it that the top ten in market cap and the top ten in true fair value will be the same stocks? Some of the top market cap get there through pricing error None get there as a consequence of being undervalued! For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 6 Problems with Cap Indexes Introduces substantial growth bias Fully participates in every market bubble Fully participates in every market decline Stocks selected by a committee (S&P, MSCI) • Or by formulas which are closely-guarded secrets Most turnover is in the smallest names But the most important problem— Over weights all over priced stocks Under weights all under priced stocks For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 7 Alternative Measures of Size Main Street uses Fundamentals: • Income or Cash Flow • Sales or Revenues • Book Equity Value (Shareholders Equity) • Gross Dividends Paid Creating an Index based on “Fundamentals” • An equity Index of 1000 stocks • Companies selected by fundamentals • Companies ranked by fundamentals • Companies weighted by fundamentals This a Valuation-indifferent Index • Strips away linkage between portfolio weight and any over- or under-valuation For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 8 Stocks at the Top Tend to Underperform Here’s Here’s where where 20-25% 20-25% of of the the index index is is invested invested … … What % of the top 10 outperformed the market average? 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 1926-2006 44% 40% 37% 31% 1964-2006 38% 35% 30% 27% By What Amount Did the Top 10 Underperform? 1 Year 3 Year 1926-2006 -2.9% -11.1% 1964-2006 -3.6% -15.9% 5 Year -17.7% -24.9% 10 Year -29.4% -37.0% Source: Research Affiliates, LLC For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 9 Comparison of Indexes US Fundamental Index 1000 vs. Cap Weighted US 1000 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Dec-61 Dec-70 Dec-79 RAFI™ US 1000 For Educational Use Only Dec-88 Dec-97 Dec-06 Cap Weighted US 1000 Please see disclosure slide for more information. 10 How Well Does the Fundamental Index™ Work? 1962-2006 Results Ending Value of $1 Ann. Return Vol. Sharp Ratio Excess Return vs REF CAP Excess Return t-stat S&P 500 Cap 1000 Book Cash Flow Sales Gross Dividend RAFI™ Composite 85.16 82.50 177.04 207.49 240.03 166.45 200.60 10.38% 10.30% 12.19% 12.59% 12.95% 12.04% 12.50% 14.74% 14.95% 14.64% 14.65% 15.53% 13.39% 14.48% 0.32 0.31 0.44 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.08% -1.89% 2.28% 2.65% 1.73% 2.20% 0.305 -3.544 3.874 3.584 2.204 3.582 * Returns from 12/31/1961 – 12/31/2006. RAFI™ Composite 1000 composed of the 4 equally-weighted measures of book value, dividends, sales and income (called RAFI™ in later slides). For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 11 RAFI ™ vs. Reference Cap 1000: RAFI™ Rolling 5-Year Annualized Returns For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 12 Composition and Sector Allocation Stability Please see disclosure slide for more information Twenty Largest Holdings on 12 / 31 / 2006 Free Float Market Capitalization Research Affiliates Fundamental Index™ GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 2.94% EXXON MOBIL CORP 2.89% EXXON MOBIL CORP 2.82% GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 2.66% CITIGROUP INC 1.97% CITIGROUP INC 2.12% MICROSOFT CORP 1.92% MICROSOFT CORP 1.83% PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 1.54% BANK OF AMERICA CORP 1.67% BANK OF AMERICA CORP 1.45% WAL-MART STORES INC 1.67% JOHNSON & JOHNSON VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 1.59% PFIZER INC 1.36% 41% ALTRIA GROUP INC 1.53% AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC 1.24% PFIZER INC 1.45% ALTRIA GROUP INC 1.22% CHEVRON CORP 1.41% INTEL CORP 1.22% JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 1.33% JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 1.10% AT&T INC 1.31% INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 1.05% GENERAL MOTORS CORP 1.12% CHEVRON CORP 1.01% FORD MOTOR CO 1.06% WAL-MART STORES INC 0.93% AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP 1.06% CISCO SYSTEMS INC 0.88% JOHNSON & JOHNSON 0.88% WELLS FARGO & CO 0.83% INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 0.88% PEPSICO INC 0.78% WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 0.80% AMGEN INC 0.78% MERCK & CO. INC. 0.79% AT&T INC 0.75% PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 0.75% *RAFI Reference Cap 1000 Index and RAFI 1000 Index. CAP 1000 uses float-weighting . For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 14 Rotation in the Top 10, Cap Weighted CAP WEIGHTING, TOP 10 LISTS, 1/1965-1/2007 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jan-65 Jan-70 Jan-75 T/SBC GM IBM T/SBC T/SBC IBM J/XOM IBM TX/CVX DD S GE GO/CVX EK GM EK J/XOM S TX/CVX XRX GE GO/CVX J/XOM EK GM S PG GE SN/AN TX/CVX Green = New to top 10 For Educational Use Only Jan-80 Jan-85 IBM T/SBC IBM XON/XOM XON/XOM GM SN/AN MOB/XOM GE SD/CVX ARC/AN SUO GE GM T/SBC SUO SN/AN DD S EK Jan-90 XON/XOM GE IBM T/SBC MO MRK BMY DD SN/AN BLS Jan-95 GE T XON/XOM KO MO WMT MRK IBM PG DD Red = Falling off top 10 Please see disclosure slide for more information. Jan-00 MSFT GE CSCO WMT XOM INTC LU IBM C AOL Jan-05 GE XOM C MSFT PFE BAC JNJ IBM AIG INTC Blue = J a n - 0 7 Fallen Angels XOM 26 GE Changes: C 30 MSFT Flip/Flops: BAC 15 PG Leads RAFI: JNJ 23 PFE Lags RAFI: MO 41 JPM Flip/Flop 15 Rotation in the Top 10, RAFI FUNDAMENTAL INDEXING, TOP 10 LISTS, 1/1965-1/2007 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jan-65 Jan-70 Jan-75 GM T/SBC T/SBC GM T/SBC GM J/XOM F TX/CVX DD GE S IBM SD/CVX J/XOM J/XOM F IBM IBM TX/CVX TX/CVX F GO/CVX GO/CVX M O B / X O M MOB/XOM GE SD/CVX S S Green = New to top 10 For Educational Use Only Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 T/SBC GM T/SBC XON/XOM XON/XOM IBM XON/XOM IBM XON/XOM IBM MOB/XOM F TX/CVX GE GO/CVX IBM GM MOB/XOM TX/CVX SN/AN CHV/CVX GE DD GM F T/SBC MOB/XOM GE DD CHV/CVX SN/AN GM F GE T/SBC MOB/XOM MO DD CHV/CVX SD/CVX Red = Falling off top 10 Please see disclosure slide for more information. Jan-00 XOM F GE GM C T/SBC MO FNM WCOM IBM Jan-05 XOM C GE WMT FNM BAC T/SBC CVX GM AIG Blue = J a n - 0 7 Fallen Angels XOM 10 GE Changes: C 17 MSFT Flip/Flops: BAC 2 WMT Leads CAP: VZ 41 CVX Lags CAP: MO 23 PFE Flip/Flop 16 Sector Weights Over Time, Capitalization Weighting 100% Retail Portfolio Composition 90% Non-Dur 80% Chem 70% Health 60% Finance Energy 50% Dur 40% Manu 30% Elec. Eq. 20% Telcom Util 10% 0% 1962 1966 Other 1970 1974 1978 1982 For Educational Use Only 1986 1990 1994 1998 Please see disclosure slide for more information. 2002 2006 17 Sector Weights Over Time, Fundamental (Composite) Weighting 100% Retail 90% Non-Dur Portfolio Composition 80% Chem 70% Health 60% Finance Energy 50% Dur 40% Manu 30% Elec. Eq. 20% Telcom Util 10% 0% 1962 1966 Other 1970 1974 1978 1982 For Educational Use Only 1986 1990 1994 1998 Please see disclosure slide for more information. 2002 2006 18 How Well Does the Fundamental Index™ Concept Work Outside of the US? Please see disclosure slide for more information Value Added, Fundamental Indexes™ vs. Capitalization Index, Price Only, 1988-2005 2.2 Canada 2.0 Greece 1.8 Austria 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 New 0.8 0.6 Zealand Finland 20 05 12 20 04 12 20 03 12 20 02 12 20 01 12 20 00 12 19 99 12 19 98 12 19 97 12 19 96 12 19 95 12 19 94 12 19 93 12 19 92 12 19 91 12 19 90 12 19 89 12 19 88 12 19 87 12 0.4 AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA BELGIUM CANADA DENMARK FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE HONG KONG IRELAND ITALY NETHERLANDS NEW ZEALAND NORWAY PORTUGAL SINGAPORE SPAIN SWEDEN SWITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES JAPAN Average Relative Less One Sigma Plus One Sigma Source: Nomura Securities Co., Ltd For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 20 Fundamental Index™ International 1983-2006 Cumulative Performance Total Performance Of RAFI International vs FTSE All World ex USA Index vs FTSE All World ex USA Value Index 25 20 15 10 5 0 Dec-85 Dec-87 Dec-89 RAFI International For Educational Use Only Dec-91 Dec-93 Dec-95 Dec-97 FTSE All World ex US Please see disclosure slide for more information. Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 FTSE All World ex US Value 21 Fundamental Index™ Japan 1983-2006 Cumulative Performance 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 RAFI Japan For Educational Use Only Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 FTSE Japan Please see disclosure slide for more information. Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 FTSE Japan Value 22 How Well Does the Fundamental Indexing™ Concept Work in the “Less Price Efficient” Space? Please see disclosure slide for more information Fundamental Index™ “Next 2000” 1979-2006 Cumulative Performance 80 70 60 50 Adds twice as much value as R2V, despite only one-fourth the value tilt. 40 30 20 10 0 Dec-81 Dec-84 Dec-87 RAFI 2000 For Educational Use Only Dec-90 Dec-93 Russell 2000 Please see disclosure slide for more information. Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Russell 2000 Value 24 Fundamental Index™ Emerging Markets 1987-2006 Cumulative Performance 7.0 6.0 5.0 Adds 1000 bp per annum, despite the fact that value hasn’t worked in EM. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 RAFI EM USD For Educational Use Only Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 FTSE AW EMG Please see disclosure slide for more information. Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 FTSE EM Value * 25 Fundamental Index™ Over-the-Counter 1973-2006 Cumulative Performance RAFI™ NASDAQ Total Performance 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 RAFI™ NASDAQ For Educational Use Only NASDAQ Composite Please see disclosure slide for more information. 26 Is RAFI™ Just Warmed-Over Value? Please see disclosure slide for more information How is RAFI™ a Value Index? Weightings: • • • • RAFI™-Sales Weight = Cap Weight x Relative Sales/Price RAFI™-Book Weight = Cap Weight x Relative Book/Price RAFI™-CF Weight = Cap Weight x Relative CF/Price RAFI™-Dividend Weight = Cap Weight x Relative Dividend/Price BUT: • Value Tilt is Dynamic For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 28 A Static Process With A Dynamic Result 50% 1.50 Value Period 40% Growth Period 1.25 Value Tilt 30% 20% More Value More Value 1.00 More Value 10% 0.75 0% Less Value -10% Value In Favor -20% Value In Favor Less Value Value In Favor 0.50 0.25 Value Tilt–Rolling regression coefficient of RAFI™ against [Russell 1000 Value minus Russell 1000 Growth]/2 -30% 0.00 Dec-80 Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Value Valuetilt tiltisismost mostpronounced pronouncedwhen whenvalue valueisisbeating beatinggrowth, growth, and is modest when growth is beating value and is modest when growth is beating value For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 29 Fama-French Comparative Statistics Long/Short Attribution, 1979-2006 INDEX Annual Return Annual Alpha RAFI™ 1000 15.8% 0.3% Russell 1000 13.5% RAFI™ 1000 Adj R2 Small Value Beta Momentum 0.970 (0.10) 0.36 1.03 0.3% 0.997 (0.15) 0.01 1.01 15.8% 1.1% 0.975 (0.09) 0.34 1.02 (0.07) Russell 1000 13.5% 0.4% 0.997 (0.15) 0.01 1.01 (0.01) RAFI™ 2000 17.0% 0.3% 0.941 0.80 0.30 1.06 Russell 2000 13.4% -2.3% 0.970 0.81 0.20 1.06 Just Value? In a way, yes. Though, a well-specified risk model should explain index returns. So, what’s with the massive negative R2000 alpha? For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 30 Fama-French Comparative Statistics Long/Short Attribution, 1979-2006 INDEX Annual Return Annual Alpha Adj R2 Small Value Beta RAFI™ 1000 15.8% 0.3% 0.970 (0.10) 0.36 1.03 RAFI™ 1000V 16.4% 0.1% 0.951 (0.12) 0.50 1.03 RAFI™ 1000G 13.5% 0.8% 0.949 (0.08) (0.11) 1.04 Russell 1000 13.5% 0.4% 0.997 (0.15) 0.01 1.01 Russell 1000V 14.6% -1.1% 0.963 (0.15) 0.44 1.02 Russell 1000G 11.9% 1.5% 0.979 (0.18) (0.40) 1.00 Just Value? Not so fast. What’s with the big R1000V negative alpha? And how useful is replication of alpha with a long/short factor model? For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 31 RAFI™ US Value Added Long-Only Brinson Attribution RAFI™ US Enhanced (1966–2006) Total VA Sector Allocation Static VA Dynamic VA Value Tilt Static VA Dynamic VA Size Tilt Static VA Dynamic VA Stock Selection RAFI™ US (1966–2006) 2.87% 0.62% 0.01% 0.61% 1.04% 0.51% 0.53% 0.41% 0.11% 0.30% 0.80% Total VA Sector Allocation Static VA Dynamic VA Value Tilt Static VA Dynamic VA Size Tilt Static VA Dynamic VA Stock Selection 2.26% 0.53% -0.05% 0.58% 1.10% 0.57% 0.53% 0.35% 0.14% 0.21% 0.28% Numbers are reported as arithmetic averages for Brinson attributions. For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 32 RAFI™ International Value Added Long-Only Brinson Attribution RAFI™ Enhanced International (1984–2006) Total VA 4.38% Country allocation 1.10% Static VA Dynamic VA Sector Allocation 0.61% Static VA Dynamic VA Value Tilt 1.63% Static VA Dynamic VA Size Tilt 0.46% Static VA Dynamic VA Currency Allocation -0.16% Static VA Dynamic VA Stock Selection 0.73% 0.20% 0.90% 0.14% 0.47% 0.88% 0.75% 0.22% 0.24% -0.11% -0.05% RAFI™ International (1984–2006) Total VA 3.70% Country Allocation 1.13% Static VA Dynamic VA Sector Allocation 0.35% Static VA Dynamic VA Value Tilt 1.78% Static VA Dynamic VA Size Tilt 0.49% Static VA Dynamic VA Currency Allocation -0.28% Static VA Dynamic VA Stock Selection 0.23% 0.31% 0.81% -0.02% 0.37% 1.03% 0.75% 0.26% 0.23% -0.12% -0.05% Numbers are reported as arithmetic averages for Brinson attributions For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 33 Is This Just Another Value Index? Yes and No RAFI 1000, Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 Growth, and S&P 500 1979-2004 50 45 RAFI Russell Russell S&P 1000 Value Growth 500 Mean: 16.1% 14.7% 12.3% 14.0% St Dev: 14.6% 14.3% 18.0% 15.4% Beta: 0.90 0.87 1.12 1.00 Corr: 0.96 0.94 0.96 1.00 40 Growth of $1, from 1979 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Dec-78 Dec-80 Dec-82 Dec-84 RAFI Comp 1000 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 Russell 1000 Value Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Russell 1000 Growth © 2006 Research Affiliates, LLC. Patent Pending; Publ. No. US-2005-0171884-A1. All rights reserved. Duplication or dissemination prohibited without prior written permission. For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 S&P 500 34 Are We Blinded by Theory? Theory does a Marvelous Job explaining how the world ought to work Theories are sometimes provable, based on certain assumptions Gaps between theory and reality are normal Still, some observers cling to theory as fact • Assume a theory is correct description of reality • Tacitly assume that, therefore, the assumptions are correct • This is exactly backwards! For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 35 Enough of the Past … How about the Future? Paul Samuelson: “Only the smallest fraction of economic writings, theoretical and applied, has been concerned with the derivation of operationally meaningful theorems. In part at least, this has been the result of the bad preconception that economic laws deduced from a priori assumptions possessed rigor and validity independently of any empirical human behavior. But only very few economists have gone so far as this. The majority would have been glad to enunciate meaningful theorems if any had occurred to them.” 1. Theory is not fact. It describes an ideal world. 2. Empiricism which contradicts theory may be right. 3. Theory is improved by acknowledging its flaws and finding improvement, not by rejecting contradictory evidence. For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 36 Common Criticisms of the Fundamental Index™ or RAFI™ It’s just data-mining It’s just clever packaging of active management It’s just repackaged and warmed-over value* • Alternatively, it’s just small-cap value What if growth starts to win? • What if large-cap starts to win? No one can know which stocks are overvalued Trading Costs are too high Fees are too high More personal critiques of Arnott and RALLC: How dare we try to patent – and profit from – this idea?! Arnott and RALLC lay claim to the prior body of behavioral finance, as if it didn’t exist.* For Educational Use Only Please see disclosure slide for more information. 37