The use and effectiveness of financial and physical reserves in Montana's dryland wheat area
by Howard W Hjort
A THESIS Submitted, to the Graduate Faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree
of Master of Science in Agricultural Economics
Montana State University
© Copyright by Howard W Hjort (1959)
Abstract:
The research problem was to test whether financial and physical reserves could be used by the dryland
farmer to better adapt his farm organization and operations to the highly variable conditions
encountered in dryland grain framing. When and if they could be so used, the problem was to
determine the effectiveness of these reserves.
Reserves were defined as that part of the assets and/or earnings of a farm unit purposefully retained and
managed in cash or in a less liquid form, as a provision for meeting current and future demands of the
firm and household.
To test whether reserves could be used by the farmer, yield series of 14 to 24 years were constructed
for 67 tracts of state-owned cropland located in the Judith Basin and Sheridan and Roosevelt counties.
An analysis of these yield series determined the liquid reserves that would be required to cover the
non-deferrable expenses of the firm and household in both the short run and over time. These
requirements ranged from $472 to $35,550 in the northeast area, from $0 to $41,061 in the other area.
The average requirements in these respective areas were $6,301 and $7,060 when the four series witty,
either extremely low average yields or high yield variability were excluded.
To determine the effectiveness of reserves, the amount of income above yearly non-deferrable expenses
was isolated for three farm units in each study area. The farm unit in each area representing the low
yield group was unable to accumulate the surplus net cash income necessary for long' run survival. '
For the remaining four farm units the surplus income was used to replace depreciable items and
invested to accumulate capital. The surplus that was invested demonstrated the effectiveness of
reserves of a somewhat less liquid form. THE USE AND EFFECTIVENESS OF FINANCIAL AND
PHYSICAL RESERVES IN MONTANA'S DRYLAND WHEAT AREA
by
HOWARD W. HJORT
A THESIS
S u b m itte d , t o t h e .G ra d u a te F a c u l t y
in
p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f the" r e q u i r e m e n ts
f o r t h e d e g re e , o f
M a s te r o f S c ie n c e i n A g r i c u l t u r a l E co n o m ics
at
M o n tan a S t a t e C o lle g e
A p p ro v e d :
/. I'
/ad, M a jo r D e p a rtm e n t
C h a jrm a n 5 E x a m in in g C o m m ittee
D e a n 5 G ra d u a te D i v i s i o n
Bozeman-, M ontana
- A u g u s t 5 1959
C-Af- ^
TABLE QF CONTENTS
Page
ill
iv
vi
vii
CHAPTER I .
INTRODUCTION........................ ..............................................................
A. The P ro b le m S i t u a t i o n
.............................................................................
1 . The A g r i c u l t u r a l I n d u s t r y ................................................ .... . .
2 . D ry la n d A g r i c u l t u r e i n t h e G r e a t P l a i n s R e g io n . . .
3 o The R e s e a r c h P r o b l e m ............................................................... ....
4 . The I n d i v i d u a l F a rm e r and H is G o a l s ............................. .... .
Oo lh e P r e s e n t S i t u a t i o n ................................................................... .
B. O b j e c t i v e s . .. . . . . . . . . .
.... .......................................... .
C. H y p o th e s e s ..................................................................................................... .
D. P r o c e d u r e and A s s u m p tio n s . .....................................................
1 . S tu d y A r e a ............................. .... .............................................................. 12
2 . The S p e c i f i c Farm U n i t .............................................................. .
3 . The P l a n o f t h e F o llo w in g C h a p t e r s ........................
<0 <2 •t'- H H H
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . . .
LIST OF TABLES . . . . . .
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .........................
ABSTRAC T - , . . . . . o - o . . . o o
io
10
n
11
12
15
CHAPTER I I .
YIELD VARIABILITY ..................................................................................
17
A. I n t r o d u c t i o n .................................. .... ....................................................
17
B. S o u rc e o f Y i e l d D a ta .................................................................................. 18
C. C o n s t r u c t i o n o f Y i e ld S e r i e s
........................................... . 19
D. M e a s u re s o f Y i e l d V a r i a b i l i t y
............................. . . . . . .
26
E . Y e a r - t o - y e a r Y i e l d V a r i a b i l i t y o f t h e Group
D e s c r i b e d ................................................................................................ .... . 27
F . Y e a r - t o - y e a r Y i e l d V a r i a b i l i t y a s E x p e r ie n c e d by t h e
In d iv id u a l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
......................... . . 29
CHAPTER I I I .
SHORT RUN SURVIVAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _____ .
A. Farm U n it E x p e n s e s . . . . . . .
.....................................................
B. Farm U n it Incom e .................................................................................. .... .
C. Farm U n it Incom e and E x p en se ............................. .... ............................
D. R e s e r v e s R e q u ir e d f o r S u r v i v a l i n th e S h o r t Run . . . .
31
31
34
36
37
CHAPTER IV . SURVIVAL AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION ............................................
A. S h o r t Run S u r v i v a l . . . . . . .
.....................................................
B. S h o r t Run S u r v i v a l s i n Time S e r i e s .............................................44
I . S u r v i v a l i n t h e Long R u n ................... .... ............................ .... .
C. C a p i t a l A c c u m u la tio n ........................ 0 . . . . . . . . . .
.
42
42
CHAPTER V.
A.
B.
C.
D.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . ............................. ......................................61
S u m m a r y .........................................................
C o n c l u s i o n s ........................ .... .............................................................. .... .
Im p lic a tio n s . . . . . . . o . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
F u tu re R e se a rc h
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.........................
50
57
&1
63
63
65
138405
TABLE QF CONTENTS
( C o n tin u e d )
E sg e
A P P E N D IC E S ........................................................................
A p p e n d ix A ....................................................................................................................
A p p e n d ix B ....................................................................................................................
A p p e n d ix C ....................................................................................................................
68
79
89
B IB LIO G R A PH Y .........................................................................................................................
104
ii
67
L IST CF ILLUSTRATIONS
F ig t f f e s
Page
'
1
T w en ty -y ea r. Y i e l d S e r i e s on S ta te - o w n e d C ro p la n d
L o c a te d i n J u d i t h B a s in C o u n ty { R -1 2 , T -1 7 , S - 3 4 ) ,
M o n tan a
•................................................
5
2
Y i e l d s P e r S e e d e d A cre a s R e p o r te d f o r 63 S ta te - o w n e d
• T r a c ts o f C ro p la n d L o c a te d i n J u d i t h B a s in ' and F e r g u s
C o u n t i e s , M d n ta h a , 1945' .
......................... 7
3
C o u n tie s in . M o n tan a S e l e c t e d a s R e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f D ry ­
l a n d W in te r and S p r i n g W heat P r o d u c t i o n . . . . . . . . .
13
L o c a ti o n o f S e l e c t e d S ta te - o w n e d T r a c t s o f C ro p la n d
i n ' S h e r id a n and R o o s e v e lt C o u n t i e s , M o n tan a . . . . . . .
23
L o c a ti o n o f S e l e c t e d S ta te - o w n e d T r a c t s o f C r o p la n d
i n J u d i t h B a s in and F e r g u s C o u n t i e s , M ontana , , . . . .
24
4
5
6
7
8
Y i e l d V a r i a t i o n b y Y e a r's, S ta te - o w n e d C r o p la n d , S p r i n g
and W in te r W heat A re a s
Y i e l d V a r i a b i l i t y on 67 S ta te - o w n e d T r a c t s o f C r o p la n d ,
S p r in g and W in te r W heat A r e a s , M o n tan a . . . . . . . . .
29
Y e a r - t o - y e a r N et W o rth f o r t h e T h re e S e l e c t e d Y i e l d
S e r i e s i n t h e ' S p r in g W heat A r e a ....................' ..................................
55
,
9
28
N
,
...........
\
Y e a r - t o - y e a r N e t W o rth f o r t h e T h re e S e l e c t e d Y i e l d
S e r i e s i n t h e W in te r W heat A re a . .....................................................
iii.i.
56
L IST CF TABLES
Number
I
II
III
IV
NUMBER OF YIELD SERIES FOR STATE-OWNED CROPLAND IN
SELECTED COUNTIES IN THE WINTER AND SPRING WHEAT AREA,
BY NUMBER CF YEARS IN SERIES 0 0 0 . \ .
AVERAGE YIELD PER SEEDED ACRE FOR 30 STATE-OWNED TRACTS
OF CROPLAND, BY NUMBER CF YEARS IN EACH SERIES, SHERIDAN
AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES
. „ . .
,
25
AVERAGE YIELD PER SEEDED ACRE FOR 37 STATE-OWNED TRACTS
OF' CROPLAND, BY NUMBER CF YEARS IN EACH SERIES, JUDITH
BASIN; AND FERGUS COUNTIES ' 0' „ . \ . .■
. o . /
26
TOTAL AND PER SEEDED ACRE FIXED CASH EXPENSE OF THE
FARM UNIT BY' AREAS . . Q .
■ ■.
..." :■'
-- ■■ •
31
DIFFERENT YIELD COMBINATIONS AND THE DOLLAR RESERVE
REQUIREMENT' FOR SURVIVAL OVER TWO AND THREE-YEAR TIME
PERIODS, 'SPRING'WHEAT'AREA . . . V .
. "0 0' 0 v . 0
40
DIFFERENT YIELD COMBINATIONS AND THE DOLLAR RESERVE
REQUIREMENT FOR SURVIVAL OVER TWO AND THREE-YEAR TIME
PERIODS, WINTER WHEAT AREA .
, . / . . - .
41
MAXIMUM RESERVES IN DOLLARS REQUIRED AT ANY ONE TIME
FOR SURVIVAL UNDER SHORT RUN CONDITIONS FOR EACH YIELD
SERIES IN THE' SPRING WHEAT AREA"
47
MAXIMUM RESERVES IN DOLLARS REQUIRED AT ANY ONE TIME
FOR SURVIVAL UNDER SHORT RUN CONDITIONS FOR EACH YIELD
SERIES 'IN THE WINTER WHEAT AREA .
.
47
CUMULATIVE YEARLY SURPLUS AVAILABLE FOR LONG RUN SUR­
VIVAL AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION WHEN RESERVES' ARE
MANAGED AS CASH 'IN W . B A H ,' GRAIN 'STORED AND REPLACED
RAPIDLY, AND' GRAIN'STORED AND REPLACED ONLY IN HIGH
YIELD YEARS," FOR THE’/THREE' SELECTED YIELD SERIES IN EACH
OF THE TWO STUDY AREAS ' ...........
'
°.
°. ..
52
.
V
VI
V II
V III
IX
X
CUMULATIVE DEPRECIATION CHARGE TO MAINTAIN COMPLETE
INVENTORY AND TO DEPRECIATE OUT EQUIPMENT AT END OF
p e r io d f Or Three s e l e c t e d ' y ie l d s e r i e s i n each stud y
53
XI
DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SURPLUS FOR INVESTMENT AT THE END
OF THE TIME "PERIOD WHEN INVESTED AT VARIOUS RATES OF
INTEREST FOR TWO SELECTED YIELD SERIES LN EACH STUDY
59
Iv
L IST .QF TABLES
(C o n tin u e d )
Number
X II
P ag e
YEABLI SUBPLUS, YEABLI SUBPLUS FOB INVESTMENT, AND THE
CUMULATIVE VAJ1UE OF THIS SUBPLUS WHEN INVESTED AT A
6 PEECENT ba te of in t e b e s t , Yie l d s e b i e s ' s i x e e Ve b s Ed ,
WINTEB WHEAT ABEA V
V
•
.
v
• •
I
*
v
.•
60
ACKNOfLEDGMENTS
F o r p r o v id in g .th e o p p o rtu n ity to engage i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r r e s e a rc h
e f f o r t , t h e a u th o r i s ■i n d e b t e d t o t h e F arm E co n o m ics R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n
o f t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a r c h S e r v i o h , U n i t e d S t a t e s D e p a r tm e n t o f
A g ric u ltu re .
'
F o r t h e p e r s o n a l a n d p r o f e s s i o n a l e n c o u ra g e m e n t r e c e i v e d th r o u g h ­
o u t t h e p e r i o d o f tim e t h i s s tu d y h a s b e e n I n p r o g r e s s , s i n c e r e a p p re ­
c i a t i o n i s e x te n d e d t o D r . D . C. M p ric k , A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is t, Farm
E co n o m ics. R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n , A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e , U n ite d S t a t e s
D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e ,
T hanks a r e due a l s o t o t h e m em bers o f t h e t h e s i s and e x a m in in g
c o m m itte e s : D r . J o h n F i s c h e r , c h a ir m a n ; P r o f e s s o r s C a r l K r a e n z e l ,
C la r e n c e J e n s e b ,' M a u ric e T a y lo r,, and H e lm e r' H o l j e , m em bers.
F i n a l l y , a p p r e c i a t i o n i s e x te n d e d t o t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l e c o n o m is ts
o f t h e Farm E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n who h a v e c o n t r i b u t e d t o th e
m a t e r i a l t h a t w as u s e d i n t h e s tu d y , and t o t h e s e c r e t a r i a l s t a f f who
e x h i b i t e d e x tre m e p a t i e n c e i n p u t t i n g t h e m a t e r i a l i n f i n a l ' fo rm .
The r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r e r r o r s i s my own.
vi
ABSTRACT
The r e s e a r c h p ro b le m w as t o t e s t w h e th e r f i n a n c i a l an d p h y s i c a l
r e s e r v e s c o u ld b e u s e d b y t h e d r y la n d f a r m e r t o b e t t e r a d a p t h i s fa rm
o r g a n i z a t i o n and o p e r a t i o n s t o t h e h i g h l y v a r i a b l e c o n d i t i o n s e n c o u n te r e d
i n d r y la n d g r a i n f r a m in g . When and i f t h e y c o u ld b e so u s e d , t h e p ro b le m
w as t o d e te r m in e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e s e r e s e r v e s .
R e s e r v e s w e re d e f i n e d a s t h a t p a r t o f t h e a s s e t s a n d / o r e a r n i n g s
o f a f a r m , u n i t p u r p o s e f u l l y r e t a i n e d and m anaged i n c a s h o r i n a l e s s
l i q u i d f o rm , a s a p r o v i s i o n f o r m e e tin g c u r r e n t and f u t u r e dem ands o f t h e
f i r m and h o u s e h o ld .
To t e s t w h e th e r r e s e r v e s c o u ld b e u s e d b y t h e f a r m e r , y i e l d s e r i e s
o f 14 t o 2/ y e a r s w e re c o n s t r u c t e d f o r 67 t r a c t s o f s ta t e - o w n e d c ro p ­
l a n d l o c a t e d i n t h e J u d i t h B a s in and S h e r i d a n and R o o s e v e lt c o u n t i e s .
An a n a l y s i s o f t h e s e y i e l d s e r i e s d e te r m in e d t h e l i q u i d r e s e r v e s t h a t
w o u ld b e r e q u i r e d t o c o v e r t h e n t i n - d e f e r r a b l e e x p e n s e s , o f :.th e , f i r m and
h o u s e h o ld i n b o t h t h e s h o r t r u n and o v e r t i m e .
These r e q u i r e m e n t s
r a n g e d fro m $472 t o $ 3 5 ,5 5 0 i n t h e n o r t h e a s t a r e a , fro m $0 t o $ 4 1 ,0 6 1 i n
th e o th e r a re a .
The a v e r a g e r e q u i r e m e n t s i n t h e s e r e s p e c t i v e a r e a s w e re
$ 6 ,3 0 1 and $ 7 ,0 6 0 w hen t h e f o u r s e r i e s witty, e i t h e r e x tr e m e ly low a v e ra g e
y i e l d s o r h i g h y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y w ere e x c lu d e d .
To d e te r m in e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f r e s e r v e s , t h e am ount o f incom e
ab o v e y e a r l y n o n - d e f e r r a b l e e x p e n s e s w as i s o l a t e d f o r t h r e e f a r m u n i t s
i n e a c h s tu d y a r e a .
The f a r m u n i t i n e a c h a r e a r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e low
y i e l d g ro u p w as u n a b le t o a c c u m u la te t h e s u r p l u s n e t c a s h inooine n e c e s ­
s a r y f o r lo n g r u n s u r v i v a l . F o r t h e r e m a in i n g f o u r fa rm u n i t s t h e
s u r p l u s incom e w as u s e d t o r e p l a c e d e p r e c i a b l e ite m s an d i n v e s t e d t o
a c c u m u la te c a p i t a l .
The s u r p l u s t h a t w as i n v e s t e d d e m o n s tr a te d t h e
e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f r e s e r v e s o f a som ew hat l e s s l i q t i i d fo rm . ■ ' ,
v ii
CHAPTEB I
IN TBQDUOTXON
The P ro b le m S i t u a t i o n
V a r ia tio n s i n p ro d u c tio n c a u se d by th e w e a th e r, i n s e c t s ,
and
d i s e a s e s , t o g e t h e r w i t h e x tre m e p r i c e f l u c t u a t i o n s , i n t r o d u c e e le m e n ts
o f r i s k s and u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n t o t h e b u s i n e s s o f a g r i c u l t u r e „
Heady s p e a k s
o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g m anners
B is k r e f e r s t o v a r i a b i l i t y o r o u tco m e s w h ic h a r e m e a s u r a b le
i n an e m p i r i c a l o r q u a n t i t a t i v e m a n n e r. U n c e r t a i n t y r e f e r s t o
f u t u r e e v e n t s W here t h e p a r a m e t e r s o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i ­
b u t i o n c a n n o t b e d e te r m in e d e m p i r i c a l l y .
A n t i c i p a t i o n s o f th e
f u t u r e c a n b e fo rm e d b u t t h e r e i s no way t h a t t h e e n t e r p r e n e u r o r
a d m i n i s t r a t o r c a n a s s e m b le e n o u g h hom ogeneous o b s e r v a t i o n s ' t o
p r e d i c t th e r e l e v a n t p r o b a b i l it y d i s t r i b u t i o n . B is k i s in s u r a b le
i n an a c t u a r i a l " s e n s e ; u n c e r t a i n t y i s n o t . i /
T h e r e f o r e , a c t i o n may b e t a k e n by t h e i n d i v i d u a l t o s h i f t r i s k w h ile he
m u st l i v e w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y .
The A e r i c u l t h r a ] . I n d u s t r y
T h e re a r e two p r i n c i p a l v a r i a b l e s t h a t c a u s e r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y i n
th e a g r ic u lt u r a l in d u s tr y .
They a r e p r i c e and o u t p u t.
T he, i n d i v i d u a l t h a t d e p e n d s u p o n t h e o p e n m a rk e t f o r t h e s a l e o f
h i s p r o d u c e i s f o r c e d t o l i v e w i t h t h e p r i c e u n c e r t a i n t i e s t h a t a re
c h a r a c te r is tic o f th a t in d u s try .
When p r i c e i s f r e e t o f l u c t u a t e , t h e
u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s v a r i a b l e i s common t o a l l p r o d u c e r s
o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n t h e i n d u s t r y , r e g a r d l e s s o f g e o g ra p h ic l o c a t i o n .
I /
When
E a r l 0 . H eady, E c o n o m ie s o f A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c ti o n and B e s o u rc e U s e P r e n t i o e - H a l l , I h c . , E nglew ood C l i f f s ', New J e r s e y , 1.952, p p . 4 4 0 , 4 4 3 „
—2 —
p r i c e i s f i x e d f o r some s p e c i f i c tim e p e r i o d p r i c e u n c e r t a i n t y i s
n o n - e x i s t e n t d u r in g t h a t p e rio d ,, o f t i m e .
P r i c e a s a v a r i a b l e may b e c o n s i d e r e d a s b e in g i n t e r n a l t o 'th e i n d u s t r y b u t e x te r n a l to th e f ir m .
The i n d i v i d u a l h a s no c o n t r o l o v e r p r i c e
v a r i a b i l i t y b u t a t t h e i n d u s t r y l e v e l a c t i o n c a n and h a s b e e n t a k e n t o
c o n tro l p r ic e s .
L e g i s l a t i v e p r i c e s u p p o r t s a r e e x a m p le s o f t h i s fo rm o f
s ta b i li z in g a c tio n .
When l e g i s l a t i v e
a c t i o n d e te r m in e s t h e p r o d u c t p r i c e
no p r i c e r i s k o r u n c e r t a i n t y i s p r e s e n t f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l o r t h e in d u s ­
try ,
a t l e a s t i n th e s h o rt ru n .
A b a s i c a s s u m p tio n i n t h i s s tu d y i s t h a t p r i c e i s a c o n s t a n t , •
t h e r e b y e l i m i n a t i n g one o f t h e two v a r i a b l e s fro m f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n .
I n d ic a tio n s a re t h a t l e g i s l a t i v e
a c tio n w i l l c o n tin u e to c o n tr o l o r
s u p p o r t t h e p ric e " o f f o o d and f e e d g r a i n s .
I t i s tr u e t h a t th e p r ic e
l e v e l may v a r y o v e r tim e e v e n w i t h , o r a s t h e r e s u l t o f , l e g i s l a t i v e
a c tio n ,.
H ow ever, r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e l e v e l , t h e minimum b a s e p r i c e w i l l
b e d e te r m in e d e a c h y e a r p r i o r t o t h e tim e t h a t m anagem ent m u st d e te r m in e
t h e s h o r t ru n . u s e o f r e s o u r c e s and p r i c e u n c e r t a i n t y i s c o n f i n e d t o
r e l a t i v e l y n a rro w l i m i t s .
E ven when p r i c e s a r e n o t f i x e d o r s u p p o r te d ,
p r i c e u n c e r t a i n t y i s common t o a l l p r o d u c t i o n a r e a s , so t h e h i g h r i s k
an d u n c e r t a i n t y p e c u l i a r t o t h e G r e a t P l a i n s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o u n c e r t a i n t y
in o u tp u t.
T h e r e f o r e , o u t p u t r e m a in s a s t h e b a s i c p ro b le m i n t h i s s tu d y .
The
am o u n ts o f l a n d and l a b o r a v a i l a b l e t o t h e f i r m w i l l b e d e te r m in e d
p r i o r t o a n a l y s i s — t h e y w i l l becom e f i x e d r e s o u r c e s .
The o t h e r two
- 3 r e s o u r c e s , managemeirfc and c a p i t a l , w i l l b e v a r i a n t s — m anagem ent w i l l
v a r y w i t h r e s p e c t t o c a p i t a l an d in c o m e .
The o p e r a t o r w i l l m anage h i s
f i x e d r e s o u r c e s t o u t i l i z e c a p i t a l i n a m anner c o n s i s t e n t w i t h h i s g o a l s —
th o s e t h a t a re p o s tu la te d as r e a l i s t i c
g o a l s o f i n d i v i d u a l fa rm e rs =
O th e r i n p u t s o r f a c t o r s t h a t d e te r m in e o u t p u t c a n b e c l a s s i f i e d
,
r, „
a s b e in g i n t e r n a l o r e x te r n a l to th e f ir m .
• -
No c la i m t o i n c l u s i v e n e s s i s
made and some i n p u t s w i l l b e b o t h i n t e r n a l a n d e x t e r n a l .
I n t e r n a l i n p u t s c a n b e d i r e c t l y c o n t r o l l e d by m anagem ent.
o f i n te r n a l in p u ts ’ a re :
m a t e r i a l s ,-
(l)
(3) f e r t i l i z e r s ,
g ra in tr e a tin g m a te ria ls ,
E xam ples
( 2 ) w eed c o n t r o l
( 4 ) c r o p and b u i l d i n g i n s u r a n c e , and ( 5 )
c re d it.
E x t e r n a l i n p u t s c a n n o t b e d i r e c t l y c o n t r o l l e d b y m anagem ent.'
E x a m p le s a r e ;
(5 ) f r e e z e ,
( 1 ) w in d , ( 2 ) t e m p e r a t u r e , ( 3 ) m o i s t u r e , ( 4 ) h a i l ,
( 6) f lo o d ,
(v). i n s e c t s , and ( 8 ) p l a n t d i s e a s e s .
E x t e r n a l i n p u t s a r e t h e m a jo r c a u s e s o f t h e r i s k s and u n c e r t a i n t i e s
a s s o c ia te d w ith o u tp u t.
I n t e r n a l in p u ts c a n be u t i l i z e d to re d u c e th e
e f f e c t s o f e x t e r n a l i n p u t s b y m anagem ent.
M anagem ent o f c a p i t a l and
incom e b eco m es a p ro b le m o f m an a g in g t h e i n t e r n a l i n p u t s , i n an a tt e m p t t o
r e d u c e ;t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o f t h e e x t e r n a l i n p u t s .
T h is i s
a p ro b le m o f
-the- i n d i v i d u a l and t h e i n d u s t r y t h a t r e q u i r e s a d d i t i o n a l r e s e a r c h .
P r i v a t e and p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s h a v e b e e n c r e a t e d t o m in im iz e t h e
e f f e c ts o f e x te rn a l in p u ts .
s h if t ris k .
C rop i n s u r a n c e c a n b e u s e d b y m anagem ent t o
H a i l i n s u r a n c e c a n b e p u r c h a s e d f o r any c o v e r a g e l e v e l
m anagem ent d e s i r e s .
A l l - r i s k c ro p in s u r a n c e p ro v id e s c o v e ra g e o f th e
-U Ga s h e x p e n s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c r o p p r o d u c t i o n .
N e v e rth e le s s , to s h i f t
t h e s e r i s k s o r t o assum e them becom es a m anagem ent d e c i s i o n .
D r y la n d A g r i c u l t u r e i n t h e G freat P l a i n s B e g io n
The G r e a t P l a i n s H e g io n h a s b e e n r e c o g n i z e d a s an a r e a w h ere
v a r i a t i o n s i n p r o d u c tio n a re h ig h ly e r r a t i c .
2/
V a ria b le p ro d u c tio n p ro ­
d u c e s e x tre m e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e i n d i v i d u a l f a r m e r 's in c o m e .
I n t h e d r y la n d
a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s o f t h e P l a i n s t h e e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s c a u s e p ro b le m s o f
g r e a t e r c o n c e r n t h a n a r e f o u n d i n o t h e r m a jo r d r y la n d a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s .
I n f a c t , v a r i a b i l i t y o h a ra c te riz fe s d ry la n d a g r i c u lt u r e i n th e P la in s
R e g io n .
C o n s e q u e n t e x tre m e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e f o r t u n e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l
farm er i s a ty p ic a l e x p e c ta tio n
1t h e " P l a i n s •a g r i c u l t u r a l i s t =
The r e p u t a t i o n o f t h e r e g i o n a r i s e s n o t fro m e x tre m e v a r i a t i o n fro m
y e a r - t o - y e a r a lo n e b u t b e c a u s e v a r i a t i o n o c c u r s i n an u n p r e d i c t a b l e
m a n n e r.
The i n d i v i d u a l i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h y e a r - t o - y e a r v a r i a t i o n i n y i e l d
and w i t h y i e l d d i f f e r e n c e s f o r t h e same y e a r . 2./
Those c o n c e r n e d w i t h
t h e s e v a r i a t i o n s i n c l u d e a s a s u b - c l a s s o f y e a r - t o ,- y e a r v a r i a t i o n y e a r s
2/
E . g . , s e e w o rk s o f C a r l F . K r a e n z e l , R u r a l ,S o c i o l o g i s t , M ontana S t a t e
C o l l e g e ; R a i n e r S c h i o k e l e , A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is t, f o r m e r l y a t N o rth
D a k o ta A g r i c u l t u r a l C o lle g e ; E . L lo y d B a r b e r , A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is t,
f o r m e r l y o f t h e B u re a u o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m ic s, USDA; P h i l T h a ir 1, '
A g r i c u l t u r a l D ponom is t , f o r m e r l y o f t h e B u re a u o f A g r i c u l t u r a l
E c o n o m ic s , USDA/ s t a t i o n e d a t t h e N o r th D a k o ta A g r i c u l t u r a l C o lle g e ;
and E a irl 0. H eady, A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is t a t Iow a S t a t e C o l l b g e .
Y i e l d s w i l l v a r y fro m y e a r t o y e a r f o r t h e fa rm a s a w h o le , b u t a l s o
■' y i e l d d i f f e r s fro m one p a r t o f t h e fa r m t o t h e n e x t i n t h e same
y e a r.
- 5 o f lo w , m ean, o r h ig h y i e l d s t h a t t e n d t o g r o u p .V
T h e re a r e i n d i c a t i o n s
o f t h i s i n s e r i e s o f y i e l d s s p e c i f i c t o i n d i v i d u a l t r a c t s o f l a n d su c h
a s t h a t shown i n F i g u r e I .
I n t h i s y i e l d s e r i e s , t h e m ean y i e l d i s 1 4 .5
b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e ; t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n i s a p p r o x im a te ly 6 .4 4
b u s h e ls .
The c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n i s 4 4 .4 p e r c e n t .
T h is t r a c t o f
l a n d i s l o c a t e d i n J u d i t h B a s in c o u n ty and i s owned by t h e S t a t e o f
M o n ta n a ,
Mean Y i e l d 1 4 .5
Y ear
F ig u re I .
id
T w e n ty -y e a r Y i e l d S e r i e s on S ta te - o w n e d C ro p la n d L o c a te d i n
J u d i t h B a s in C ou n ty (R -1 2 , T -1 7 , S -3 4 ) M o n tan a.
The s t a t i s t i c a l t o o l s u s e d t o d e te r m in e b u n c h in e s s do n o t c o n fir m
th a t- .th is i s so.
T h is may be b e c a u s e ( 1 ) t h e l a c k o f a s u i t a b l e
s t a t i s t i c a l d e v i c e , ( 2 ) t h e l a c k o f a d e q u a te tim e s e r i e s d a t a , o r
( 3 ) b u n c h in e s s d o e s n o t e x i s t w h ic h i s c o n t r a r y t o w h a t we se e i n
v i s u a l i n s p e c t i o n o f e x i s t i n g tim e s e r i e s .
-6
-
F i g u r e '2 p r e s e n t s y i e l d s a s r e p o r t e d i n 1945 b y o p e r a t o r s o f 63
■
v.
':■
■'
d i f f e r e n t t r a c t s o f s ta t e - o w n e d c r o p l a n d i n J u d i t h B a s in and F e r g u s
c o u n tie s o
I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t w i t h i n any ones y e a r p ro n o u n c e d d i f f e r e n c e s
i n y i e l d s a re th e r u l e r a t h e r th a n th e e x c e p tio n i n t h i s d ry la n d c ro p
a re a .
F o r t h e 63 y i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s , t h e m ean y i e l d i s 1 5 .2 b u s h e l s
p e r s e e d e d a c r e , t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n 8 .2 8 b u s h e ls ? t h e r e f o r e , t h e
c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n i s 5 4 .5 p e r c e n t .
b a s i s r a n g e fro m 0 t o 3 6 .6 b u s h e l s .
The y i e l d s on a s e e d e d a c r e
■
E x tre m e v a r i a t i o n i n y i e l d o f e itty d r
o f th e s e ty p e s c a u se th e e x te r n a l f a c t o r s to be c la s s e d a s u n c e r t a i n t ie s
r a t h e r th a n r i s k s ,
a s i t b eco m es i m p o s s ib l e f o r th e i n d i v i d u a l f a r m e r t o
p a s s them on t o som eone e l s e .
Num erous econom ic s t u d i e s h a v e b e e n made i n v a r i o u s p a r t s o f t h e
G r e a t P l a i n s t o e x p l o r e t h e s e r i s k a n d u n c e r t a i n t y a s p e c t s o f d r y la n d
a g r i c u l t u r e . j> /
I n d ic a tio n s a re t h a t i n t e l l i g e n t use o f r e s e r v e s w i l l
p ro m o te incom e s t a b i l i t y f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l an d t h e i n d u s t r y .
I t seem s
t h a t c a p i t a l a n d in co m e a r e r e c o g n i z e d a s f a c t o r s t h a t c a n b e m anaged
th r o u g h t h e u s e o f r e s e r v e s .
T h is r e c o g n i t i o n g i v e s r i s e
to th e s p e c if ic
r e s e a r c h p ro b le m t o b e s t u d i e d .
j> /
E s p e c i a l l y b y S e h i c k e l e , B a r b e r , . T h a i r , an d B a ld u r K r i s t j a n s o n ,
A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is ts f o r m e r l y o f t h e N o r th D a k o ta A g r i c u l t u r a l
C o lle g e . '
- rJ -
Y i e l d O b s e r v a tio n s and T o w n sh ip s o f O b s e r v a tio n s
F ig u re 2 .
Y i e l d s P e r S e e d e d A cre a s R e p o r te d f o r 63 S ta te - o w n e d T r a c t s
o f C ro p la n d L o c a te d i n J u d i t h B a s in and F e r g u s C o u n t i e s ,
M o n tan a,
The R e s e a r c h P ro b le m
The p ro b le m o f t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t i s t o t e s t w h e th e r f i n a n c i a l
and p h y s i c a l r e s e r v e s c a n b e u s e d by t h e d r y la n d f a r m e r i n t h e G re a t
P l a i n s R e g io n , and i f
s o , t o m e a su re how e f f e c t i v e t h e y , t o g e t h e r w ith
o t h e r m anagem ent t e c h n i q u e s , a r e i n r e d u c i n g t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o f th e
e x te rn a l f a c to r s .
- 8 R e s e r v e s w i l l b e d e fin e d , a s t h a t p a r t o f t h e a s s e t s a n d /o r e a r n i n g s
o f a f a r m p u r p o s e f u l l y r e t a i n e d and m anaged i n c a s h o r i n a l e s s l i q u i d
f o r m , a s a p r o v i s i o n f o r m e e tin g t h e c u r r e n t atid f u t u r e dem ands o f t h e
f i r m and t h e h o u s e h o ld .
g o rie s s
As s u c h , r e s e r v e s w i l l b e o f tw o m a jo r c a t e r
( l ) f i n a n c i a l a n d (2 ) p h y s i c a l .
R e s e r v e s w i l l b e lo o k e d u p o h a s f o rm s o f c a p i t a l .
The q u a n t i t y o f
r e s e r v e s w i l l f l u c t u a t e i n u s e and w i l l b e c o n t r o l l e d b y a n n u a l v a r i a t i o n s
i n t h e incom e s tr e a m a n d t h e way i t i s m anaged a s i t e n t e r s t h e b u s i n e s s .
I t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t some f a r m e r s may h a v e ajmple c a p i t a l b e y o n d t h a t
i n v e s t e d i n t h e f a r m u n i t t h a t , i f r e t a i n e d i n s u f f i c i e n t l y l i q u i d fo rm ,
t h e y c o u ld o p e r a t e w i t h o u t o t h e r r e s e r v e s . 6 /
H ow ever, r e t u r n s fro m
s u c h - c a p i t a l c o m m itte d s e m i- p e r m a n e n tly may b e g r e a t e n o u g h t o draw i t
'
o f f s n d j u s t i f y u s e o f a r e s e r v e p ro g ra m a p p r o p r i a t e t o a s i t u a t i o n
w ith o u t s u rp lu s q a p i t a l .
F in a n c ia l r e s e r v e s in c lu d e s
ance a n n u it ie s ,
(1 ) c a s h b a n k a c c o u n t s ,
(2 ) l i f e in s u r ­
(3 ) f e d e r a l , m u n ic ip a l , a n d c o r p o r a t e b o n d s ,
( 4 ) common
s t o c k s , an d (5 ) o t h e r fo rm s o f s e c u r i t i e s .
E x a m p le s o f p h y s i c a l r e s e r v e s a r e :
( l ;) f o o d o r f e e d g r a i n s t o r e d ,
(2) m a p h in e ry and e q u ip m e n t, ( 3 ) fa rm l a n d , an d (4 ) o f f - f a r m r e a l
p ro p e rty .
£>/
The f a r m u n i t c o n s i s t s o f t h e p r o d u c in g an d cd p su m in g p o r t i o n s o f
t h e f a r m , an d i s t h e r e f o r e c o n s i d e r e d a Com ple^e eco n o m ic u n i t .
T h is te r m w i l l b e u s e d th r o u g h o u t t h i s r e p o r t and i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e
f i r m and’ t h e h o u s e h o ld .
\
" 9 J h e I n d i v i d u a l F a rm e r and Hi a GnaTiq
The f a r m e r 's p l a n n i n g and a c t i o n a r e g o v e rn e d b y t h e s e t o f
r e s o u r c e s a t h i s command, b y known t e c h n i q u e s , by h i s k n o w le d g e and
a p p r a i s a l o f w e a th e r and o t h e r h a z a r d s , a n d p r i c e e x p e c t a t i o n s ,
H is
d e c i s i o n s a r e made w i t h i n t h e e s t a b l i s h e d s e t o f i n s t i t u t i o n s , b o t h pub
lie
and p r i v a t e , w i t h w h ic h he d o e s b u s i n e s s and c a r r i e s on many o f t h e
a c ti v it ie s o f h is d a ily liv in g .
The i n s t i t u t i o n a l fra m e w o rk and i n d i v i d u a l i n s t i t u t i o n s may o r may
n o t b e a d a p te d t o t h e e n v iro n m e n t o f t h e G r e a t P l a i n s ,
may b e i n c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e g o a l s o f t h e f a r m u n i t ,
I n f a c t , th e y
A c o m p re h e n s iv e
e c o n o m ic a n a l y s i s o f r e s e r v e u s e r e q u i r e s t r a n s c e n d i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l
'
b o u n d a r i e s i n an a tt e m p t t o l o c a t e and d e f i n e t h e c o n d i t i o n s n e c e s s a r y
t o h e l p t h e fa r m u n i t a c h ie v e i t s g o a l s .
I t i s assum ed t h a t t h e g o a l s o f t h e f a r m u n i t a r e s u r v i v a l o v e r
tim e an d c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n o v e r t im e .
The h o u s e h o ld m u st s u r v i v e ;
t h i s i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o t h e f i r m 's s u r v i v a l .
The m anagem ent p ro b le m
i s t o o r g a n i z e and m anage t h e h o u s e h o ld and f i r m , and t o c o n d u c t t h e
b u s i n e s s a f f a i r s i n a m an n er t h a t w i l l a t t a i n t h e s e g o a l s .
The e x t e n t
t o w h ic h t h e s e g o a l s a r e r e a l i z e d i s a m e a s u re o f econom ic s u c c e s s .
As t h e fa r m u n i t a t t e m p t s t o e s t a b l i s h i t s e l f a s a b u s i n e s s , " th e
f i r s t g o al i s s u rv iv a l.
A t Some f u r t h e r s t a g e o f d e v e lo p m e n t t h e m a jo r
g o a l b eco m es c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n .
d e c id e s t h a t s u r v iv a l i s
assu red .
The g o a l s c h a n g e when t h e m anager
The c h a n g in g o f g o a l s i s e x p e c te d t o
10 i n f l u e n c e t h e way r e s e r v e s a r e u s e d and a lm o s t by d e f i n i t i o n t h e q u a n t i t y
an d fo rm s o f r e s e r v e s t h a t a r e a v a i l a b l e „
The optim um u s e o f r e s e r v e s b y any f a r m u n i t may r e q u i r e f i n a n c i a l
r e s e r v e s a l o n e , p h y s i c a l r e s e r v e s a l o n e , o r some c o m b in a tio n o f b o t h .
Optimum u s e o f r e s e r v e s w i l l o c c u r when t h e fa rm u n i t u s e s t h e r e s e r v e s
a v a i l a b l e i n t h e m an n er m o st c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s u n d e r
i t s command an d b y t h i s u s e t h e y w i l l b e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e o b j e c t i v e s
o r g o a ls ,
tiie fo rm o f t e n u r e , t h e f i x e d r e s o u r c e s o f l a n d and l a b o r ,
a n d t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l fra m ew o rk w i t h i n w h ic h t h e m an a g e r m akes h i s
d e c i s i o n s w i l l h av e an e f f e c t on t h e optim um u s e o f r e s o u r c e s .
T h is
optim um w i l l b e g u id e d b y t h e g o a l s a s p r e v i o u s l y p o s t u l a t e d .
The P r e s e n t S i t u a t i o n
•
• -V
'
■ ■■
P r e s e n t k n o w le d g e o f t h e u s e and e f f e c t s o f r e s e r v e s , a s d e f i n e d ,
i s h o t a d e q u a te t o r e j e c t o r s u b s t a n t i a t e e x i s t i n g b e l i e f s o f f a r m e r s ,
r e s e a r c h e r s , an d o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l s c o n c e r n e d ,
An econom ic a n a ly s is - , d f
t h i s p ro b le m w i l l r e s u l t i n i n f o r m a t i o n o f v a lu e t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l
f a r m e r , t h e E x t e n s i o n S e r v i c e , A g r i c u l t u r e E x p e rim e n t S t a t i o n s , D e p a r t­
m en t and o t h e r F e d e r a l O f f i c i a l s and o t h e r s c o n c e r n e d w i t h N o r th e r n G re a t
P l a i n s a g r i c u l t u r e .and r u r a l w e l f a r e .
O b je c tiv e s
TTie m a jo r o b j e c t i v e i s t o d e v e lo p eco n o m ic i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n in g r e s e r v e s and t h e i r u s e t h a t w i l l h e lp t h e f a r m o p e r a t o r i n M o n ta n a and
i n s i m i l a r a r e a s , t o b e t t e r a d a p t h i s f a r m o r g a n i z a t i o n an d o p e r a t i o n s
t o t h e h i g h l y v a r i a b l e c o n d i t i o n s e n c o u n te r e d i n d r y la n d g r a i n f a r m in g .
11
S p e c ific o b je c tiv e s a re to :
1 . M easu re t h e e f f e c t o f r e s e r v e s on. d r y la n d f a r m o r g a n i z a t i o n ,
m an ag em en t, an d o v e r a l l econom ic s u c c e s s .
2 . D e m o n s tr a te t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l an d m anage­
m ent a d ju s t m e n t s t h e fa rm u n i t c a n make b y u s i n g r e s e r v e s .
H y p o th e s e s
W ith in t h e U n c e r t a i n incom e s i t u a t i o n s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c
o f f a r m in g i n
t h e N o r th e r n G r e a t P l a i n s R e g io n , t h e f a r m u n i t c a n u s e f i n a n c i a l and
p h y s i c a l r e s e r v e s t o a l l e v i a t e t h e p r o b le m s o f m anagem ent, c a p i t a l , and
in co m e i n t h e e f f o r t s t o a t t a i n t h e o b j e c t i v e s .
S p e c i f i c h y p o th e s e s a r e s
1.
Thp i n d i v i d u a l who i n t e l l i g e n t l y m anages r e s e r v e s w i l l
a t t a i n econom ic s u c c e s s b e f o r e t h e i n d i v i d u a l who d o e s n o t u t i l i z e
rese rv es.
2 . F o r e a c h o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and. o p e r a t i o n a l fa rm b u s i n e s s
t h e r e w i l l b e a r e s e r v e u s e p a t t e r n t h a t i s optim um .
Of t h e
d i f f e r e n t o r g a n i z a t i o n a l an d o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n s a v a i l a b l e t o t h e
, i n d i v i d u a l one w i l l show an a b s o l u t e a d v a n ta g e o v e r t h e o t h e r s .
P r o c e d u r e and A s s u m p tio n s
T h is r e s e a r c h i s
a p h a s e o f a m a jo r r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t c u r r e n t l y b e in g
c o n d u c te d b y t h e F arm E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n . 2 /
The b a s i c d a t a
a c c u m u la te d f o r t h e m a jo r p r o j e c t w i l l p r o v id e much o f t h e b a s i c in fo rm a ­
tio n needed.
2/
Stjudy i n p r o g r e s s , E f f e c t s o f W e a th e r on Economy o f D r y la n d F a rm s ,
c o n d u c te d b y Don E„ 'B o s tw ic k , A g r i c u l t u r a l ' Econom i s t , F arm
E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n , A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a rc h S e r v i c e , U n ite d
S t a t e s D e p a r tm e n t o f. A g r i c u l t u r e .
.
12 S tu d y A rea
The g e o g r a p h ic s tu d y a r e a i s , i n g e n e r a l , t h e d r y la n d w i n t e r and
s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a s o f T fc n ta n a f s p o r t i o n o f t h e G re a t P l a i n s .
It is '
h o p e d t h a t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s s tu d y w i l l b e a p p l i c a b l e t o s i m i l a r d ry ­
la n d a re a s o f th e N o rth e rn G re a t P l a in s .
S p e c i f i c a l l y , p o r t i o n s o f F e r g u s , J u d i t h B a s i n , S h e r i d a n , and
RooiS e v e l t c o u n t i e s wiere s e l e c t e d f o r s t u d y .
The u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p tio n
.4
i n t h i s s e l e c t i o n i s t h a t t h e s e c o u n t i e s a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e two
m a jo r w h e a t p r o d u c i n g a r e a s i n M o n tan a.
The f i r s t two r e p r e s e n t t h e
w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a , t h e l a t t e r two t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a .
T h ese s tu d y
a r e a s a r e shown on t h e f o l l o w i n g map p r e s e n t e d a s F i g u r e 3 .
The S p e c i f i c Farm U n i t
I t i s a n e c e s s a r y r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t t h e fa rm u n i t b e o f a d e q u a te s i z e ■
t o r e t u r n , a t a l e v e l o f m anagem ent comm only p r a c t i c e d i n t h e a r e a ,
in co m e s u f f i c i e n t t o m e e t i t s g o a l s .
T h e re m u st b e s u f f i c i e n t incom e
d y e r tim e t o p r o v id e a l e v e l o f l i v i n g t h e f a m i l y w i l l a c c e p t , c o v e r
c a s h e x p e n s e s , and m e e t o v e rh e a d c o s t s —— t h e s e a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f
a fa r m u n i t t h a t w i l l s u r v i v e .
A lso' o v e r t i m e , t h e r e m u st b e some
s u r p l u s f o r r e i n v e s t m e n t , f o r c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n a s t h e s e c o n d g o a l
i s e x p re sse d above.
I n t h e s h o r t r u n , c a p i t a l , m u st b e a d e q u a te t o m eet
minimum and n o n - d e f e r r a b l e , l i v i n g c o s t s a n d c a s h o p e r a t i n g c o s t s .
If
th e s e c o s ts a re n o t c o v e re d , re s e r v e s ca n n o t be u t i l i z e d e f f e c tiv e ly .
if
at a ll.
MONTANA
Sherida
F e rg u s
Ju d ith
B a s in
F ig u re 3 .
C o u n tie s i n M ontana S e l e l e c t e d a s R e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f D ry la n d W in te r and S p r in g
W heat P r o d u c t i o n .
- 14 Y i e l d s e r i e s o v e r tim e w i l l b e c o n s t r u c t e d fro m s t a t e l e a s e d a t a
t h a t r e c o r d s y i e l d e x p e rie n c e s p e c if ic to t r a c t s o f c ro p la n d w ith in th e
s e le c te d fo u r c o u n tie s .
T hese y i e l d s e r i e s w i l l d e s c r i b e y i e l d v a r i a ­
b ility
B u d g e ts w i l l b e c o n s t r u c t e d t h a t com pare th e
and d i f f e r e n c e s o
f a r m u n i t s in co m e a s i t v a r i e s due t o v a r i a t i o n i n ' y i e l d .
A ls o , d i f ­
f e r e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e m anagem ent o f t h i s fa rm incom e
w i l l b e b u d g e te d .
T h e se b u d g e ts w i l l b e b a s e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g a s s u m p tio n s ?
t h e fa rm
u n i t w i l l c o n s i s t o f a f a m i l y o f f o u r p e o p le t h a t r e n t s 1 ,7 0 0 a c r e s o f
f a r m l a n d ; t h e f a m i l y owns t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, a n d t h e b u i l d i n g s
n e c e s s a r y f o r an o p e r a t i o n o f t h i s s i z e ; f a m i l y l a b o r i s
a d e q u a te f o r
a l l .m a jo r fa r m o p e r a t i o n s e x c e p t p l a n t i n g and" h a r v e s t i n g ; h i r e d l a b o r
u s e d d u r i n g p l a n t i n g w i l l b e t r e a t e d a s a f i x e d c o s t w h i l e t h e am ount o f
h ir e d la b o r u t i l i z e d d u rin g h a r v e s tin g o p e r a tio n s i s c o n s id e r e d a
f u n c tio n o f th e a c re a g e h a rv e s te d .
C o s t d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e fro m a p r o j e c t b e in g c o n d u c te d b y t h e Farm
E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n . 8/
T hese d a t a a r e b a s e d on 1958 p r i c e s .
A l l c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r o d u c t i o n fro m t h i s fa rm u n i t w i l l be
■ tr e a te d a s c o n s t a n t s w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f t h e h i r e d l a b o r m e n tio n e d
ab o v e and d i r e c t h a r v e s t i n g and g r a i n s t o r a g e c o s t s . S /
8/
S tu d y i n p r o g r e s s . S u p p ly R e sp o n se o f W heat on D r y la n d Grot) F arm s in
M o n tan a, c o n d u c te d b y LeRoy C. R ude, A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is t, Farm
E c o n o m ic s R e s e a r c h D i v i s i o n , A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a rc h S e r v i c e , U n ite d
S t a t e s D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e .
2/
D i r e c t ih g rv e s t i n g ' e a s t s e i h c l u d e .!oper a t ih g t d o sdas o f t h e c o m b in e , t h e ;
- o p e r a t i n g o s t „o f t h e v e h i c l e s u s e d t o h a u l t h e g r a i n , and t h e grain
h a n d lin g .c o s ts .
- 15 O f. t h e 1 ,7 0 0 a c r e s r e n t e d , 1 ,6 4 0 a r e t i l l a b l e ' . ' T hese 1 ,6 4 0 a c r e s
a r e u s e d f o r sum m erfa llo w and c r o p , 820 a c r e s o f e a c h e v e r y y e a r .
The
f a r m u n i t i s o p e r a t e d u n d e r r e g u l a t i o n s im p o se d b y t h e c u r r e n t fa rm
p ro g ra m , a n d a s s u c h , h a s a w h e a t b a s e o f 820 a c r e s .
T h is i s r e d u c e d 30
p e r c e n t f o r c o m p lia n c e w i t h t h e a c r e a g e a l l o t m e n t p ro g ra m .
The o n ly
s a l e a b l e c r o p s p r o d u c e d f o r incom e a r e w h e a t and b a r l e y , a n d b o t h a re ,
c o n s id e re d c a sh c ro p s .
E a c h y e a r t h e r e a r e 574 a c r e s s e e d e d t o w heat,
an d 246 s e e d e d a c r e s o f b a r l e y . 1 0 /
The l a n d o w n e r 's s h a r e o f t h e c ro p
i s o n e f o u r t h i n t h e - s p r in g w h e a t a r e a , o n e t h i r d i n t h e w i n t e r w h eat
a re a .
The p r o d u c t p r i c e s a r e b a s e d on p r o j e c t i o n s by t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l
R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e and t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l M a r k e tin g S e r v i c e . 11 /
As
p r e v io u s ly in d ic a te d , th e s e p ric e s ' w i l l be t r e a te d a s c o n s ta n ts .
The P l a n o f t h e F o llo w in g C h a p te r s
The c o m p le tio n o f t h i s s tu d y r e q u i r e s f o u r s t a g e s o f d e v e lo p m e n t.
Y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y w i l l b e d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p te r I I by an a n a l y s i s o f
s t a t e l e a s e r e c o r d s 't h a t i d e n t i f y and r e c o r d y i e l d e x p e r i e n c e o v e r tim e .
The v a r i a t i o n i n t h e y i e l d s e r i e s c o n s t r u c t e d fro m t h e s e d a t a w i l l
p r o v i d e m eans f o r t e s t i n g and c l a s s i f y i n g r e s e r v e s .
The am ount o f
10/
The w h e a t b a s e (820 a c r e s ) t im e s 70 p e r c e n t e q u a ls t h e w h e a t
a c r e a g e .. The. w h e a t b a s e l e s s t h e w h e a t a c r e a g e e q u a l s t h e b a r l e y
a c re a g e .
H /
U n i t e d S t a t e s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e , A g r i c u l t u r a l P r i c e and
C o s t P r o j e c t i o n s . W a s h in g to n , D. C . , S e p t e m b e r , 1 9 5 7 , p p . 10 and 1 4 .
- 1,6 r e s e r v e s , i n d o l l a r t e r m s , n e c e s s a r y f o r s h o r t - r u n s u r v i y a l w i l l be
c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h y i e l d s e r i e s i n t h e tw o a r e a s .
I n C h a p te r I I I a l l p o s s i b l e y i e l d c o m b in a tio n s b e lo w s h o r t - r u n
s u r v i v a l w i l l b e c o n v e r t e d t o d o l l a r te r m s and t e s t e d f o r o n e , tw o , and
t h r e e - y e a r tim e p e r i o d s .
T h is w i l l p r o v id e i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t w i l l b e
-
u s e f u l i n d e te r m i n in g t h e d o l l a r am ounts o f r e s e r v e s n e e d e d f o r s h o r t ru n s u rv iv a l.
C h a p te r 17 w i l l b e c o n c e r n e d w i t h r e s e r v e s r e q u i r e d f o r s u r v i v a l
o v e r t i m e , t h e p r im a r y g o a l , and a l s o w i t h r e s e r v e s a v a i l a b l e t o t h e
fa r m u n i t f o r c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n , t h e s e c o n d a r y g o a l .
m e n ts o v e r tim e w i l l b e d e te r m in e d .
H e s e rv e r e q u i r e ­
Any s u r p l u s incom e w i l l b e i n v e s t e d
f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n and v a r i o u s i n v e s t m e n t s w i l l be
c o m p a re d .
The f i n a l c h a p t e r . C h a p te r V, w i l l b e c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e summary
and c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e s tu d y .
CHAPTEE I I
' TIEID YAEIABIL IIT ,
In tro d u c tio n
I t i s a n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n f o r r e s e a r c h c o n c e r n in g r e s e r v e s
t h a t y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y be d e s c rib e d as c lo s e to r e a l i t y
as p o s s ib le .
I t i s n e c e s s a r y b e c a u s e no two f i r m s a r e i d e n t i c a l i n t e r m s o f o u t p u t $
t h e r e f o r e , t h e am o u n ts o f c a p i t a l a v a i l a b l e o v e r tim e o r on a y e a r - t o ,y e a r b a s i s w i l l be d i f f e r e n t f o r ea ch farm u n i t ,
T
_
As y e a r l y incom e
'
v a r i e s t h e am ount a v a i l a b l e f o r r e s e r v e u s e v a r i e s — t h e y c a n be
c o n s i d e r e d t h e same c o n c e p t fro m o p p o s in g v i e w p o i n t s .
A ls o , d e c i s i o n s
c o n c e r n in g t h e u s e o f r e s e r v e s a r e m a n a g e r i a l d e c i s i o n s s p e c i f i c t o
o n ly one f a r m u n i t .
To d e s c r i b e y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y a d e q u a t e l y , y i e l d d a t a m u st b e
s p e c i f i c t o one t r a c t o f l a n d ( o r fa rm ) o v e r tim e .
t h a t c a n b e so i d e n t i f i e d .
T h is r e q u i r e s d a t a
T h is i s i n c o n t r a s t t o d a t a t h a t r e p r e s e n t t h e
a v e r a g e o f g ro u p s o f f a r m s , su c h a s an e n t i r e c o u n ty .
The a v e ra g e o f
t h e g ro u p i s l e s s v a r i a b l e and h e n c e , d o e s n o t a d e q u a t e ly r e p r e s e n t t h e
p ro b le m o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l .
A tte m p ts h a v e b e e n m ade, a t v a r i o u s t im e s ,
to lo c a te i n d iv i d u a l farm o p e r a to r s t h n t m a in ta in y i e l d r e c o r d s ov er
tim e .
T h ese a t t e m p t s h a y e b e e n q u i t e u n s u c c e s s f u l . .
The a l t e r n a t i v e
w as t o s e l e c t y i e l d s e r i e s s p e c i f i c t o one t r a c t o f l a n d t o r e p r e s e n t
y i e l d e x p e r i e n c e f o r t h e fa rm u n i t .
T h is m eth o d w as u s e d e v e n th o u g h
i t t e n d s t o o v e r e m p h a s iz e y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y f o r t h e fa rm u n i t ,
— 18 —
S o u rc e o f Y i e l d D a ta
The S t a t e o f M o n tan a h o l d s t i t l e
t o t r a c t s o f l a n d l o c a t e d th r o u g h ­
o u t th e s t a t e .
T h ese l a n d s a r e l e a s e d t o , and o p e r a t e d b y , l o p a l fa rm
i
p e o p le .
C u r r e n t l y , c r o p l a n d i s l e a s e d on a c r o p - s h a r e - b a s i s .
The
l e a s e s a r e f o r t e n - y e a r tim e p e r i o d s , a n d a t t h e e x p i r a t i o n d a t e c o m p e tt iv e c ro p -s h a re b id s a re re c e iv e d .
The h i g h e s t b i d d e r i s e n t i t l e d t o
t h e l a n d f o r t h e n e x t t e n - y e a r p e r i o d ; however,, t h e current lessee h a s
t h e r i g h t t o m e e t t h e h i g h e s t b i d , a n d i f he d o e s s o , c o n t i n u e s t o l e a s e
th e la n d .
The s t a t e m a i n t a i n s r e c o r d s t h a t i d e n t i f y t h e s e t r a c t s o f l a n d b y
o p e r a t o r , le a s e " n u m b e r , arid l e g a l d e s c r i p t i o n .
These r e c o r d s l i s t t h e
num ber o f c r o p a c r e s r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e l e a s e and t h e c r o p - s h a r e a g re e ­
m en t f o r t h e p e r i o d o f tim e t h e l e a s e i s h e l d .
E ach y e a r t ^ e num ber
o f s e e d e d c r o p a c r e s , by c r o p s , a r e r e p o r t e d and r e c o r d e d a s i s t h e
b u s h e l s h a re o f th e s e c ro p s t h a t th e s t a t e r e c e iv e s .
W ith t h i s i n f d r ,
m a t io n , t h e b u s h e l y i e l d p e r s e e d e d a c r e c a n b e c a l c u l a t e d .
A ssum e;
(l)
s ta te
s h a r e o f w h e a t r e c e i v e d i s 210 b u s h e l s ;
c r o p - s h a r e a g re e m e n t i s 1 / 4 — 3 / 4 ;
E x am p le s
( 2) th e
(3 ) 120 a c r e s a r e s e e d e d t o w h e a t;" "
I n t h i s e x a m p le , t h e y i e l d p e r s e e d e d a c r e f o r t h e t r a c t o f l a n d i s
7 .0 b u s h e l s
Z—C.21.0 )—
A
120
\ .
/
P r i o r t o 1927 i t w as m a n d a to ry t h a t a c a s h paym ent b e made f o r t h e
u se o f th e s e s ta te la n d s .
From 1927 u n t i l t h e l a t e 1930 ' s . t h e c r o p -
s h a r e r e n t a l s y s te m w as p e r m i s s a b l e .
I n t h e 1938 s e s s i o n , t h e s t a t e
l e g i s l a t u r e p a s s e d a Igw t h a t made t h e c r o p - s h a r e s y s te m m a n d a to ry .
'
— 19 —
As t h e l e a s e s e x p i r e d a f t e r t h i s y e a r , t h e r e n e w a ls w e re on a c r o p - s h a r e
b a s is .
L an d s t h a t w e re r e n t e d u n d e r t h e c a s h paym ent a g re e m e n t d i d n o t
r e q u i r e r e c o r d i n g o f any c r o p d a t a ; t h e r e f o r e , . i t i s . i m p o s s i b l e . t o
d e te r m in e t h e y i e l d p e r a c r e on l a n d s so o p e r a t e d .
As y i e l d d a t a w ere
a v a i l a b l e o n ly t h r o u g h t h e 1956 c r o p y e a r , m o st o f t h e y i e l d s e r i e s a r e
f o r a 1 7 - o r - 1 8 - y e a r tim e p e r i o d .
T h is i s u n f o r t u n a t e f o r t h i s p ro b le m ,
a s t h e 1 9 3 0 's a r e known a s a p e r i o d o f v e r y a d v e r s e c o n d i t i o n s f o r fa rm
p e o p le i n t h e s e a r e a s .
C o n s tru c tio n o f Y ie ld S e r ie s
The y i e l d s p e r s e e d e d a c r e , fro m i n f o r m a t i o n r e p o r t e d b y t h e
I q ^ s e e , w e re c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h t r a c t o f c r o p l a n d owned b y t h e s t a t e
i n th e s e fo u r c o u n tie s .
T h is h a d b e e n done f o r t h e m a jo r p r o j e c t , t h u s
t h e i n f o r m a t i o n w as r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e .
As p r e v i o u s l y i n d i c a t e d , t h e s e
t r a c t s o f l a n d w e re i d e n t i f i a b l e b y l e a s e n u m b er, o p e r a t o r , an d l e g a l
d e s c rip tio n .
H ow ever, when a l e a s e i s re n e w e d , c u r r e n t l y e v e r y IQ
y e a r s - - p r e v i o u s l y e v e r y f i v e y e a r s , t h e num ber c h a n g e s and i n many
c a s e s th e o p e ra to r a ls o c h an g es.
T hus, t h e o n ly m eans o f i d e n t i f i c a t i o n
o y e r tim e i s b y l e g a l d e s c r i p t i o n .
The p ro b le m w as t o i s o l a t e y i e l d d a t a o v e r tim e s p e c i f i c t o a t r a c t
o f l a n d and f o r t h i s s t u d y t h e s m a l l e s t t r a c t c o n s i d e r e d w as a s e c t i o n ,
640 a c r e s .
A t t i m e s , two o r e v e n t h r e e l e a s e s w e re fo u n d f o r d i f f e r e n t
p a r t s o f t h e same s e c t i o n o f l a n d .
I n s u c h c a s e s , t h e w e ig h te d a v e ra g e
Was u s e d t o d e te r m in e t h e y i e l d p e r s e e d e d a c r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f th e
s e c tio n .
- 20 The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f y i e l d s s p e c i f i c t o one s e c t i o n r e q u i r e d s o r t ­
i n g t h e d a t a c a r d s t h r e e t i m e s , by r a n g e , b y ,to w n s h ip w ith in ." e'ach r a n g e ,
a n d b y s e c t i o n w i t h i n e a c h r a n g e - to w n s h ip c o m b in a tio n .
,A f t e r e a c h s o r t ,
d a t a c a r d s t h a t d i d n o t c o v e r an a d e q u a te tim e p e r i o d c o u ld b e e l i m i n a t e d
fro m f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n .
A f t e r s o r t i n g , t h e l e g a l d e s c r i p t i o n , t h e num ber o f a c r e s o f c r o p ­
l a n d , t h e y e a r o f d a t a , t h e s e e d e d a c r e s o f w h e a t, and t h e w h e a t y i e l d
p e r s e e d e d a c r e w e re t a b u l a t e d .
I t w as assum ed t h a t y i e l d s e r i e s w i t h
l e s s t h a n 12 y e a r s o f d a t a w o u ld b e i n s u f f i c i e n t t o d e s c r i b e y i e l d v a r i a ­
b ility
o v e r tim e .
T h u s, f u r t h e r e l i m i n a t i o n o f d a t a b y v i s u a l i n s p e c ­
t i o n o f t h e t a b u l a t e d r e s u l t s w as p o s s i b l e .
A f t e r e l i m i n a t i n g i n a d e q u a t e . y i e l d d a t a , t h e r e w e re 44 yield s e r i e s
i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a a n d 68 i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a w i t h 12 o r
m ore y e a r s o f d a t a .
'
The n u m b ers o f y i e l d s e r i e s , by q r q a s , b y t h e num ber
o f y e a r s i n t h e s e r i e s a r e g iv e n i n T a b le I on t h e f o l l o w i n g p a g e .
S e v e r a l o f t h e y i e l d s e r i e s w e re n o t c o n ti n u o u s .
When a tt e m p t in g
t o d e s c r i b e y e a r - t o - y e a r y i e l d v a r i a t i o n , t h i s p r e s e n t s a p ro b le m — one
t h a t d o e s n o t a r i s e when t h e p ro b le m i s w i t h i n y e a r y i e l d d i f f e r e n c e s . T h u s, a l l 112 y i e l d s e r i e s w e re u s e d t o d e s c r i b e yield d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n
any one y e a r and f o r y e a r - t o - y e a r y i e l d v a r i a t i o n f o r t h e a r e a s , b u t
o n ly t h e c o n ti n u o u s s e r i e s o r t h o s e l a c Jcin g one y e a r w e re u s e d f o r y e a r to -y e a r c a lc u la tio n s .
By e l i m i n a t i n g t h e s e r i e s w i t h g a p s o f m ore t h a n one y e a r , th e
u s a b l e y i e l d s e r i e s w e re r e d u c e d t o s i x t y s e v e n ,. 30 i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t
21
Tmm I.
NUMBER CF H E ID SERIES FOR STATE-OWNED CROPLAND IN SELECTED
COUNTIES H THE WINTER AND SPRING WHEAT AREA, BY NUMBER OF
YEARS H SERIES„ '
_
H a rs
S p r in g Whss t .A reg. '
W in te r W heat A rew
I Bp-Q S e y e l t A S h e r i d a n C o u n tie s )
( F e r g u s & 'JnU i t h B a s in C m m ti e p )
A ll Y ie ld
' C o n tin u o u s o r
A l l Y i e ld
C o n tin u o u s o r ‘
S ep i e g— — S exi e r ----------M inus One Y e a r________ S e r i e s '
■M inns One Y e a r
• 'Number '
Number
' Number
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
I
0
'0
8
'3
15
5
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
13
• 3
8
0 •
I
0
0
0
44
30 ■
.10
■
T o ta ls
a r e a a n d 3 7 'i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a .
I
2
6
■5
9
9
14
11
9 ‘
I
I
0
I
o .
0
I
0
4
5
12
6
7
0
I
0
I
68
37
The num ber o f y i e l d s e r i e s
e l i m i n a t e d and r e t a i n e d b y t h i s p r o c e s s a r e shown i n T a b le I .
The a c t u a l w h e a t y i e l d p e r s e e d e d a c r e f o r e a c h y e a r a n d t h e
s im p le a v e r a g e w h e a t y i e l d i / f o r e a c h o f t h e 67 s e r i e s i s
i and I I o f A p p e n d ix A0
shown i n
T a b le I c o n t a i n s t h e 30 y i e l d s e r i e s
f o r t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a . T a b le I I , t h e 37 w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a s e r i e s .
I /
The s im p le a v e ra g e i s u s e d w i t h t h e a s s u m p tio n t h a t t h i s i s m ore
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e t h a n a w e ig h te d a v e r a g e o f a c t u a l y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y .
I n many o f t h e y i e l d s e r i e s t h e c o n d i t i o n w h ere n e a r l y a l l c r o p l a n d
a c r e a g e w o u ld b e s e e d e d one y e a r and i n ' t h e n e x t y e a r v e r y l i t t l e
w o u ld b e s e e d e d , w as q u i t e common. W it h in t h e same y e a r t h e s e e d e d
a c r e a g e w o u ld v a r y t o t h e same o r a g r e a t e r e x t e n t .
In e ith e r of
t h e s e c a s e s i t seem s t h e - w e i g h te d a v e r a g e w o u ld c r e a t e a g r e a t e r
b ia s .
- 22 A ls o i n c l u d e d i n t h e s e t a b l e s a r e t h e a v e r a g e a c r e s o f w h e a t s e e d e d p e r
y e a r f o r each s e r i e s «
The u s e o f t h e s im p le a v e ra g e w h e a t y i e l d i n t h e s e
t a b l e s r e q u i r e s t h e a s s u m p tio n t h a t e a c h a c r e w i t h i n a s e c t i o n i s i d e n ­
t i c a l i n te r m s o f p r o d u c t i o n .
The f o l l o w i n g m aps,, p r e s e n t e d a s F i g u r e s 4 and 5 , show t h e r a n g e ,
t o w n s h i p , . and s e c t i o n l o c a t i o n o f e a c h y i e l d s e r i e s i n t h e s e f o u r c o u n tie s =
F i g u r e 4 i s s p e c i f i c t o t h e s p r i n g w h e a t c o u n t i e s , S h e r id a n and R o o s e v e lt ,
w h i l e F i g u r e 5 i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e w i n t e r w h e a t c o u n t i e s o f F e r g u s and
J u d i t h B asin =
The num ber d i r e c t l y b e lo w e a c h t r a c t o f l a n d i d e n t i f i e s
t h e t r a c t and t h e s e c o r r e s p o n d w i t h t h e s e r i e s n um bers f o u n d i n T a b le s
I an d I I o f A p p e n d ix A.
A l l y i e l d s e r i e s a r e num bered th r o u g h e a c h row
o f to w n s h ip s fro m w e s t t o e a s t p r o g r e s s i n g fro m n o r t h t o so u th =
The o n ly
r a t i o n a l b a s i s f o r t h i s c h o ic e w as t h a t s to r m a c t i v i t y t e n d s t o f o ll o w
a w e s t- to - e a s t p a th i n th e s e a re a s .
seem s t o b e w e s t t o b a s t ,
A lth o u g h t h e p r e v a i l i n g m ovement
s to r m s do f o l l o w a n o r t h w e s t ,- t o - s o u t h e a s t
p a t h i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a an d a s o u t h w e s t - t o - n p r t h e a s t p a t h in. t h e
w in te r w heat a re a .
- 23 -
o O or look
26. -------------
F i g u r e 4»
L o c a tio n o f S e l e c t e d S ta te - o w n e d T r a c t s o f C ro p la n d i n
S h e r id a n and R o o s e v e lt C o u n t i e s , M ontana.
22
----- □
_ l — l___I
F ig u re 5
L o c a tio n o f S e l e c t e d
S ta te - o w n e d T r a c t s o f
C ro p la n d i n J u d i t h
B a s in and F e r g u s
C o u n t! s , M ontana.
— 25 —
I n T a b le I I t h e a v e r a g e y i e l d p e r s e e d e d a c r e b y t h e num ber o f
y e a r s i n e a c h s e r i e s , i s g iv e n f o r t h e 30 t r a c t s o f s ta t e - o w n e d l a n d
i n th e s p rin g w heat a re a .
T a b le I I I p r e s e n t s t h e same i n f o r m a t i o n f o r
t h e 37 t r a c t s l o c a t e d i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a .
From t h e s e t a b l e s , t h e r e
seem s t o b e no i n d i c a t i o n t h a t y i e l d s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y lo w e r on t h e
lo n g e r y i e l d s e r i e s .
TABLE I I .
AVERAGE YIELD PER SEEDED ACiffi FOR J O STATE-OtffiED TRACTS OF
CROPLAND, BY NUMBER CF YEARS H EACH SERIES, SHERlDAN AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
Y e a rs i n E ach S e r ie s
15.
Ik
n
IS
12
21
1 7 ,5
1 3 .2
•14.5
1,3.8
1 7 .1
1 5 .1
15.1
13.9
1 7 .3
1 5 .7
1 4 .6
1 4 .4
1 4 .0
1 1 .5
1 1 .2
1 1 .2
1 1 .4
1 3 .7
1 2 .4
1 3 ,7 4 ,
11.40
12.8
14.9
13.8
A v e ra g e
1 5 .3 5
1 3 .7 0
1 3 .4
1 1 .9
1 1 .8
1 1 .7
11 .1
9 .7
8 .5
6 ,2
1 2 .3 3
1 3 .3 3
— 26 —
TABLE I I I .
AVERAGE YIELD PER SEEDED ACRE FOR 37 STATE-OWNED TRACTS OF
CROPLAND, BY NUMBER OF YEARS H EACH SERIES, JUDITH BASIN
AND FERGUS COUNTIES.
Y e a rs i n E ach S e r ie s a /
'''V
A v e ra g e
a/
l£
12
1 7 .2
1 7 .0
1 3 .2
1 2 .8
16.2
• 10.7
1 5 .0 5
2 0 .0
1Q,.6
7 .0
1 2 .9 0
. IB
.29.3
2 1 .0
. 2 1 .8
16 .3
. 20,9
.1 5 .5
20 ,C
.1 9 ,,7
1 7 ,9
1 6 ,8
1 6 .8
1 6 .4
1 2 .5
1 1 .7
1 1 .6
1 7 .8 8
20 -
12
'
1 3 .4
1 1 .4
1 9 .5
1 9 .0
1 7 .8
14.5
9.7
14*4
14.1
1 3 .4
14.68
1 6 .1 0
T h re e t r a c t s a r e ^ o t i n c l u d e d a s t h e r e i s o n ly one o b s e r v a t i o n f o r
a Woh t r a c t .
T h ese a r e :
( 1 ) .14 y e a r s e r i e s - 1 4 .9 b u s h e l s , (2 )
22 y e a r s e r i e s - 1 8 .8 b u s h e ls ', a n d ( 3 ) 24 y e a r s e r i e s - 1 5 .8 b u s h e l s
p e r seeded a c re .
M e a s u re s o f Y i e l d Y a r l a b i l i t v
Two s t a t i s t i c a l m e a s u r e s w e re u s e d t o d e s c r i b e y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y . T h ese a r e t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n and t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n .
fo rm e r i s
Hie
a m e a s u re o f a b s o l u t e v a r i a t i o n w h i l e t h e l a t t e r i s a m easu re
o f r e la tiv e v a ria tio n .
T h ese m e a s u re s w e re c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h g ro u p
o f o b s e r v a t i o n s b y y e a r s and f o r e a c h y i e l d s e r i e s .
I n T a b le I I I o f
A p p e n d ix A y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y i s d e s c r i b e d i n a b s o l u t e and r e l a t i v e te r m s
f o r t h e y i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s c o n c e r n in g t h e y e a r s ' 1 9 3 8 -5 6 f o r S h e r id a n and
- 27 R o o s e v e lt c o u n t i e s .
T a b le IV , A p p e n d ix A, d e s c r i b e s y i e l d v a r i a t i o n i n
t h e same m an n er f o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 3 7 -5 6 f o r J u d i t h B a s in and F e r g u s c o u n t i e s .
The s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n g i v e s t h e a b s o l u t e v a r i a t i o n i n w h e a t y i e l d
f o r th e s e y ie ld d a ta .
The c o e f f i c i e n t p f v a r i a t i o n g i v e s t h e r e l a t i v e
v a r i a t i o n i n w heat y i e l d f o r th e s e y e a r s o f d a ta , th u s v a r io u s c o e f f i ­
c i e n t s o f . v a r i a t i o n , c a n b e c o m p a red .
To o b t a i n m e a s u r e s o f y e a r - t o - y e a r v a r i a t i o n i n w h e a t y i e l d , t h e
i d e n t i c a l t y p e c a l c u l a t i o n s w e re c o m p le te d f o r t h e 67 y i e l d s e r i e s .
The r e s u l t s o f t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e fo u n d i n T a b le s V a n d V I i n
A p p e n d ix A.
The f o r m e r r e p r e s e n t s t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a , t h e l a t t e p
th e w in te r w heat a r e a ..
T hese t a b l e s i d e n t i f y t h e y i e l d s e r i e s b y num ber and c a n t h e r e f o r e ,
I
b e c o m p a red t o t h e l e g a l d e s c r i p t i o n a s f o u n d on F i g u r e s 4 an d 5 and
\
a l s o t o t h e y e a r - t o - y e a r y i e l d s t h a t a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b le s I and i ; i l
o f A p p e n d ix A.
Y e a r - t o - y e a r Y i e l d V a r i a b i l i t y o f t h e G roup ! D e s c r ib e d '
As shown i n f i g u r e 6 , f o r t h e s p r in g - w h e a t a r e a .th e r a n g e o f th e
c o e f f i c i e n t 6 f v a r i a t i o n w as 4 1 .6 p e r c e n t , fro m a low o f 2 7 .9 p e r c e n t
i n 1947 t o a h i g h o f 6 9 .5 p e r c e n t i n 1-949.
In th e w in te r w heat a re a
t h e low w as 4 0 ,4 p e r c e n t i n 1 9 5 1 } t h e h i g h 6 0 .5 p e r c e n t i n 19 5 4 .
T hus,
t h e r a n g e f o r t h i s a r e a w o u ld b e 2 0 .1 p e r c e n t , much lo w e r t h a n t h e 4 1 . 6 .
p e rc e n t ran g e f o r th e s p rin g w heat a re a .
— 28 —
H ow ever, t h e a v e r a g e v a r i a t i o n f o r t h e 1 9 - y e a r p e r i o d f o r t h e
s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a w as 4 0 .8 4 p e r c e n t , t h i s c o m p a re s t o t h e 2 0 - y e a r
p e r i o d i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a w h ere t h e a v e ra g e v a r i a t i o n was 4 8 .4 5
p e rc e n t.
C
0
e
f
f
1
c
i
e
n
t
P e rce n t
0
f
V
a
r
1
a
t
I
o
n
A v e ra g e 4 0 .5 P e r c e n t
------ W in te r W heat A re a
------ S p r in g W heat A re a
1 '
1937 '
1940
I
tT
-T
Y e a rs
F ig u re 6 .
Y i e l d V a r i a t i o n by Y e a r s , S ta te - o w n e d C r o p la n d , S p r in g
and W in te r W heat A r e a s .
The c o m p a r is o n s o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n i n F i g u r e 6 a r e f o r
y e a r - t o - y e a r y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y f o r a l l o b s e r v a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e two a r e a s .
The d a t a f o r t h i s f i g u r e c a n b e fo u n d i n d e t a i l i n A p p e n d ix A, T a b le s
I I I an d IV .
- 29 -
l a a r - t Q - y a a r Y i e ld V a r i a b i l i t y a s E x p e r ie n c e d bv t h e T n d iv i d u al
The b a r c h a r t p r e s e n t e d a s F i g u r e 7 b e lo w su m m a riz es t h e r e s u l t s o f
T a b le s V and V I o f A p p e n d ix A.
T hese t a b l e s ,
and t h e c h a r t , a r e c o n c e rn e d
w i t h y e a r - t o - y e a r y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y on t h e 67 t r a c t s o f s ta te - o w n e d
c r o p l a n d i n t h e two a r e a s .
The n u m b ers and t h e p e r c e n t a g e s o f t h e t o t a l
o b s e rv a tio n s t h a t f a l l w ith in ea ch c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n c a te g o ry f o r
e a c h a r e a a r e show n.
C o e ffic ie n t
o f V a ria tio n
///////
60 t o 69%
10.0%
2.7%
//////////////////z l
50 t o 59%
40 t o 49%
30 t o 39%
26.7%
35.2%
///////////////////////////////////y
50.0%
29.7%
/////////
13.3%
29.7%
0*
2.7%
20 t o 29%
L
T
0
I
I
I
S p r in g W heat A re a
W in te r W heat A re a
i
I
5
I
I
I
I
I I
10
I
I
I
r
15
Number and P e r c e n t o f O b s e r v a tio n s
F ig u re 7 .
Y i e l d V a r i a b i l i t y on 67 S ta te - o w n e d T r a c t s o f C r o p la n d , S p r in g
and W in te r W heat A r e a s , M o n tan a.
— 30 —
As i n d i c a t e d b y F i g u r e 7 , o n e --h a lf o f t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a y i e l d
o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e w i t h i n t h e 40 t o 49 p e r c e n t c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n
c a te g o ry .
When t h e r a n g e i s fro m 40 t o 59 p e r c e n t , 77 p e r c e n t o f t h e
s p rin g w heat o b s e rv a tio n s a re in c lu d e d .
T h e re w e re o b s e r v a t i o n s f o u n d i n e a c h c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n ■
c a t e g o r y f o r t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a and on t h i s b a s i s t h e w i n t e r w h e a t
a r e a w o u ld b e a l e s s hom ogeneous a r e a t h a n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a ;
how ever,, an i n d i v i d u a l c o u ld e x p e c t t o l i v e w i t h g r e a t e r y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y
i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a C se e F i g u r e 7 ) .
T h e re w as a r a n g e o f 3 0 .1 p e r c e n t i n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n
f o r th e 3 0 - y ie ld s e r i e s i n th e s p rin g w heat a re a .
F o r th e w in te r w heat
a r e a w i t h 37 y i e l d s e r i e s , t h e r a n g e w as 3 7 .1 p e r c e n t .
The lo w e s t
c o e f f i c i e n t w as 3 6 .0 p e r c e n t and t h e h i g h e s t w as 6 6 .1 p e r c e n t i n S h e r id a n
and R o o s e v e lt c o u n t i e s (T a b le V, A p p e n d ix A ).
I n J u d i t h . B a s i n an d F e r g u s c o u n t i e s , t h e low d i s c o v e r e d w as 2 3 .3
p e r c e n t and t h e h i g h w as 6 0 .4 p e r c e n t ( T a b le V I, A p p en d ix A ).
The
a v e r a g e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f v a r i a t i o n w e re 4 8 . 15 p e r c e n t and 4 4 .6 6 p e r c e n t
f o r t h e s p r i n g and w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a s r e s p e c t i v e l y .
I n d ic a tio n s of
t h i s a re e v id e n t i n F ig u re 7 .
U n d er b o t h t h e i n d i v i d u a l a n d t h e g ro u p m e a s u re s o f ' y p a r l t o - y e a r
y i e l d " v a r i a b i l i t y t h e a r e a , w i t h ^ th e ^ s m a ^ le s tn ^ e p c e n ta g e b a d g e :h a d th e
h ig h e s t a v e ra g e c o e f f i c i e n t o f v a r i a t i o n .
CHAPTER H I
SHORT-RUN SURVIVAL
I n t h e s h o r t - r u n , t h e f a r m u n i t r e q u i r e s incom e t h a t i s a d e q u a te t o
m e e t minimum and n o n -rd e f e r r a b le l i v i n g c o s t s and c a s h o p e r a t i n g e x p e n s e s
f o r s u rv iv a l.
F a rm ’U n it E x p e n s e s
Th© y e a r l y c o s t s o f t h e assum ed f a r m u n i t t h a t c a n b e c o n s id e r e d
f i x e d f o r t h i s s tu d y a r e p r e s e n t e d "in T a b le I o f A p p en d ix B .
T hese a r e
t h e y e a r l y c a s h o u t l a y s f o r t h e l i s t e d i te m s t h a t w o u ld b e r e q u i r e d f o r
f m*m u n i t u n d s r a z e r o y i e l d c o n d i t i o n .
The t o t a l d o l l a r r e q u i r e ­
m e n ts and t h e r e q u i r e m e n t p e r s e e d e d a c r e f q r t h e fa rm u n i t a r e sum m arized
i n T a b le IV b e lo w .
TABLE IV .
As i n d i c a t e d , i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a # 8 .2 0 p e r
TOTAL AND PER SEEDED ACRE FIXED CASH EXPENSE OF THE FARM UNIT
BY AREAS.V '
S n rin er W heat A rea
W in te r W heat A re a
-Sca-.
S o l.
F irm f i x e d e x p e n s e s
H o u s e h o ld f i x e d e x p e n s e s
4 ,3 5 0 .0 0
.2 ,3 7 5 .0 0
4 ,4 0 5 .0 0
2 ,3 6 0 .0 0
Farm u n i t f i x e d e x p e n s e s
6 ,7 2 5 .0 0
6 ,7 6 5 .0 0
5 .3 0
5 .3 7
2 .9 0
2 .8 8
8 .2 0
8 .2 5
F irm f i x e d e x p e n s e p e r
seed ed a c re
H o u s e h o ld f i x e d e x p e n s e
p e r seed ed a c re
Farm u n i t f i x e d e x p e n s e
p e r seed ed a c re
—/
I
Ih e fa r m u n i t ’ s f i x e d c a s h e x p e n s e s a r e t h e minimum y e a r l y e x p e n s e s
t h e f o u r —member h o u s e h o ld and t h e 1 ,6 4 0 c r o p a c r e f i r m u n d e r a
z e ro y i e l d c o n d itio n .
-
32
-
s e e d e d a c r e w o u ld b e r e q u i r e d f o r s u r v i v a l o f t h e fa rm u n i t f o r e a c h y e a r
t h a t a z e ro y i e l d i s e x p e rie n c e d .
d o l l a r p e r seed ed a c re re q u ire m e n t
f o r s u r v i v a l when a z e r o y i e l d i s e x p e r i e n c e d i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a
w o u ld b e | 8 . 2 5 o
Some o f t h e f i r m ' s c a s h e x p e n s e s c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d f u n c t i o n s o f
p r o d u c tio n w h ile o th e r s a re f u n c tio n s o f a c r e s .
Those t h a t a r e f u n c t i o n s
o f p ro d u c tio n in c r e a s e a t a c o n s ta n t r a t e w ith y i e l d .
T hose t h a t a re
f u n c t i o n s o f a c r e a g e i n c r e a s e a t a c o n s ta n t , r a t e w i t h a c r e s h a r v e s t e d .
Those c o s t i te m s t h a t a r e i n c l u d e d i n T a b le I o f A p p e n d ix B a r e ’
i t e m s t h a t a r e s p e c i f i c t o t h e s i z e o f fa r m i n a c r e a g e a n d /o r i n te r m s
o f t h e s i z e o f t h e h o u s e h o ld assum ed i n C h a p te r I .
c o n s i d e r e d f i x e d f o r t h i s s tu d y .
Thus> t h e y c a n be
I n t h i s t a b l e t h e r e a r e no c o s t s
c a lc u la t e d f o r g r a in h a n d lin g o r h a r v e s tin g .
I f t h e r e i s no c r o p t h e r e
c a n b e no c a s h e x p e n s e c h a r g e a b le t o t h e s e i t e m s .
The h i r e d l a b o r
'
e x p e n s e ^ i n c l u d i n g room and b o a r d , t h e p ic k u p and t r u c k e x p e n s e s , and t h e
e x p e n s e s f o r s u p p l i e s and m is c e l l a n e o u s i te m s a r e i n c l u d e d i n T a b le I
b u t a t a minimum l e v e l ,
a l e v e l assum ed t o b e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a z e ro
y ie ld .
G r a in h a n d li n g and p ic k u p and t r u c k c o s t s a r e c o n s i d e r e d f u n c t i o n s o f
p ro d u c tio n .
ra tio .
The i n c r e a s e i n c o s t a s y i e l d i n c r e a s e s i s i n a o n e - to - o n e
T h is i s t r u e r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e y i e l d p e r s e e d e d a c r e a s t h e c o s t
i s c q l c u l a t e d on a b u s h e l b a s i s .
H ow ever, t h e i n c r e a s e s i n t h e o t h e r
t h r e e ex p en se ite m s a re f u n c tio n s o f th e a c re a g e h a rv e s te d ; t h e r e f o r e , a t
some y i e l d l e v e l t h e y w i l l n o t i n c r e a s e f u r t h e r .
T h is r e q u i r e s an
- 33 a s STmpMcm' c o n c e r n in g t h e y i e l d l e v e l s t h a t w o u ld e n c o u ra g e t h e f a r m e r t o
h a r v e s t a l l th e seed ed a c re a g e .
The f o l l o w i n g a s s u m p tio n s w e re m ade:
I n t h e .sp r i n g w h e a t a r e a :
( l ) i f t h e a v e ra g e y i e l d jp e r
s e e d e d a c r e w as ab o v e 9 .3 b u s h e l s t h e . c o s t s w o u ld b e c a l c u l a t e d
b y a s su m in g a l l t h e s e e d e d a c r e a g e w as h a r v e s t e d ; ( 2 ) i f ' t h e
c r o p w as b e tw e e n 6 .3 a n d 9 .3 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e , t h r e e
f o u r t h s o f t h e a c r e a g e w o u ld b e h a r y e s t e d ; (3 ) when t h e c r o p was
b e tw e e n 4 . 1 an d 6 .3 b u s h e l s , one h a l f o f t h e a c r e a g e ,w a s h a r ­
v e s t e d ; (4 ) o n ly o n e f o u r t h o f t h e c r o p w o u ld b e h a r v e s t e d i f
t h e y i e l d w as b e tw e e n 2 .2 and 4 . 1 ; (5 ) any y i e l d b e lo w 2 .2
b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e w as c o n s i d e r e d a z e r o y i e l d .
In th e w in te r w h eat a r e a :
( l ) a y i e l d above 1 0 .5 b u s h e l s
r e q u i r e s h a r v e s t i n g a l l s e e d e d a c r e a g e ; ( 2 ) a y i e l d b e tw e e n
6 .7 and 10..5 w as e q u i v a l e n t t o t h r e e f o u r t h s o f t h e a c r e a g e
b e i n g h a r v e s t e d ; ( 3 ) one h a l f o f t h e a c r e a g e w as h a r v e s t e d f o r
y i e l d s b e tw e e n 4 .3 an d 6 .7 ; ( 4 ) one f o u r t h w as h a r v e s t e d when
t h e y i e l d w as b e tw e e n 2.3" and 4.3; Cd) a y i e l d b e lo w 2.3 w as
c o n s id e re d a z e ro y i e l d .
The i n c r e a s e i n c o s t s due t o t h e i n c r e a s e d y i e l d a t t h e s e s p e c i f i e d
l e v e l s Was c a l c u l a t e d .
When t h e s e e d e d a c r e a g e w as a l l h a r v e s t e d , t h e
9 .3 and 1 0 .5 b u s h e l y i e l d c o n d i t i o n s , t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s o f th e s e " f i r m s
w o u ld i n c r e a s e o n ly due t o i n c r e a s e d c o s t o f g r a i n h a n d li n g a n d p ic k u p
and t r u c k e x p e n s e ; t h u s , any i n c r e a s e i n c o s t w o u ld b e a t a c o n s t a n t
ra te
above t h e s e y i e l d l e v e l s .
A lso,- o n ce t h e num ber o f a c r e s assum ed t o
b e h a r v e s t e d w as d e te r m i n e d , h a r v e s t i n g c o s t s c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d a s
i n c r e a s i n g a t a c o n s t a n t r a t e b e tw e e n e a c h o f t h e s e y i e l d l e v e l s .
U sin g
t h e s e a s s u m p tio n s , e x p e n s e s c o u ld be c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e f a r m u n i t f o r
e a c h o r any y i e l d l e v e l .
I n T a b le s I I and I I I o f A ppendix. B t h e fa r m u n i t e x p e n s e s a r e g iv e n
fo r d iffe re n t y ie ld le v e ls .
b a s is .
Thpse c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e on a s e e d e d a c r e
- 34 Farm U n it Iannm e
The, d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o f i t o r l o s s a t e a c h y i e l d l e v e l , and
■
a ls o to lo c a te th e b re a k e v e n y i e l d f o r s u r v iv a l r e q u ir e s th e c a lc u la tio n
o f t h e g r o s s in co m e p e r s e e d e d a c r e f o r e a c h y i e l d l e v e l .
Once incom e
a n d e x p e n s e i n f o r m a t i o n a r e a v a i l a b l e , i t i s a .s im p le m a t t e r t o d e te r m in e
t h e fa r m y i e l d n e e d e d t o c o v e r a l l o r an y p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e f a r m u n i t ' s
e x p e n se s=
A ls o , one c a n d e te r m in e t h e incom e p o s i t i o n o f t h e fa rm u n i t
g i v e n d i f f e r e n t y i e l d l e v e l s when t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s
a v a il a b l e =
To d e te r m in e g r o s s in co m e t h e f o l l o w i n g a s s u m p tio n s a n d n o t a t i o n s
w e re u s e d :
1 . A s s u m p tio n s c o n c e r n in g p r i c e s . B a s i s f o r t h e s e a s s u m p tio n s
a r e A g r i c u l t u r a l P r i c e an d C o s t P r o j e c t i o n s .
a . W heat p r i c e
p e r b u s h e l.
b . W heat p r i c e
p e r b u s h e l.
C= W heat p r i c e
p e r b u s h e l.
d . B a r le y p r i c e
p e r b u s h e l.
e . B a r le y p r i c e
p e r b u s h e l.
f . B a r le y p r i c e
p e r b u s h e l.
f o r t h e . S t a t e o f M ontana is - $ 1 .5 5
f o r t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a i s $ 1 .6 0
f o r t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a i s $ 1 .5 0
f o r t h e S t a t e o f M o n tan a i s $ .9 7
f o r t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a i s $ .9 9
f o r t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a i s $ .9 5
2 . A s s u m p tio n s c o n c e r n in g y i e l d s =
B a s i s f o r t h e s e a s s u m p tio n s
a r e M o n tan a A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , w h e a t an d b a r l e y y i e l d
d a t a f o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 3 8 -5 7 .
.
a . B a r le y
o f th e
b . B a r le y
o f th e
y ie ld
w heat
y ie ld
w heat
i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a i s 130 p e r c e n t
y ie ld .
i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a i s 135 p e r c e n t
y ie ld .
- 35 3 . A s s u m p tio n s c o n c e r n in g c r o p s t o b e s e e d e d .
T hese
a s s u m p tio n s ' a r e b a s e d on t h e c u r r e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l
p ro g ra m .
a . Tjip s e e d e d a c r e a g e b a s e i s e q u a l t o o n e - h a l f t h e
c ro p la n d a c re a g e .
b . The f a r m u n i t i s o p e r a t e d u n d e r c o m p lia n c e w i t h th e
p r e s e n t p ro g ra m , t h e r e f o r e 3 0 'p e r c e n t o f t h e s e e d e d
a c r e a g e b a s e i s r e s t r i c t e d fro m w h e a t p r o d u c t i o n .
c . The r e s t r i c t e d a c r e a g e i s s e e d e d t o b a r l e y ; t h e r e ­
f o r e , .3 o f e a c h p e e d e d a c r e i s assum ed t o b e
s e e d e d t o b a r l e y , .7 s e e d e d t o w h e a t.
4 . N o ta tio n s u s e d .
a . G ro s s in co m e p e r s e e d e d a c r e i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t
a r e a - I 0w
b . G ro s s in co m e p e r s e e d e d a c r e i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t
aroa = I hw
Hj CD
c.
d.
.
.
.
B a r le y y i e l d = By
B a r le y p r i c e = Bp
W heat y i e l d = Wy
W heat p r i d e = Wp
5 o D e r i v a t i o n o f t h e incom e e q u a t i o n s .
a ° ^sw o r ^ww- ~ '^ ( B y " Bp) + .7 (Wy • Wp)
b . I n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a By = 1 .3 Wy , Bp =
.6 1 8 7 5 Wp and Wp = $ 1 .6 0 , t h e r e f o r e
( 1 ) Igw = -3 ( 1 .3 Wy - .6 1 8 7 5 Wp ) + .7 (Wy . $ 1 .6 0 )
(2 ) I g w -
.3 ( 1 .3 Wy • $ ..9 9 ) .+ .7 ($1.60W y )
(3 ) I s w -
.3 ($1.287W y ) + .7 ($1.60W y )
(4 ) I sw = $ .3 8 6 1 Wy + $ 1 ,1 2 Wy
(5 ) I sw - $ 1 .5 0 6 1 Wy
c . I n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a By = 1 .3 5 Wy , Bp =
.6 3 3 3 Wp and Wp = $ 1 .5 0 , t h e r e f o r e
(1 ) I ww = .3 (l.3 5 W y . .6333Wp ) + .7(Wy • $ 1 .5 0 )
( 2 ) I ww = .3 (l.3 5 W y . $ .9 5 ) + .7($1.50W y )
( 3 ) I ww = .3 ($ 1 .2 8 2 5 W y ) + .7($1.50W y )
(4 ) I ww = $ .3 8 2 7 5 Wy t $ 1 .0 5 Wy
(5) Iww = $I^%75 Wy
- 36 W ith t h e s e tw o in co m e e q u a t i o n s , I sw = .$ 1 .5 0 6 1 Wy and I ww = I l i 43475
W , t h e g r o s s in co m e c a n b e d e te r m in e d fro m any g iv e n y i e l d .
A ls o , g iv e n
'
'
some l e v e l o f g r o s s in co m e p e r s e e d e d a c r e t h e w h e a t y i e l d e q u i v a l e n t
c a n b e d e te r m in e d .
I t i s t o b e n o t e d t h a t t h e d b l l a r incom e p e r s e e d e d
a c r e r e c e i v e d fro m t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e in co m e r e c e i v e d
fro m b o t h b a r l e y and w h e a t.
T h is e n a b l e s one t o a p p ly t h e s e f o r m u la s
d i r e c t l y t o t h e y i e l d s e r i e s d e r i v e d i n t h e f o rn le r c h a p t e r and t h e incom e
p e r s e e d e d a c r e am ount a ssu m e s t h a t t h e f a r m e r i s o p e r a t i n g h i s u n i t
u n d e r c u r r e n t a c re a g e r e s t r i c t i o h s .
Farm
___ U n it: Incom
■ : e—and E x o e n se
•
I n T a b le s I I an d I I I o f A p p e n d ix B t h e l o s s o r p r o f i t p e r s e e d e d
a c r e a n d i n d o l l a r te r m s f o r t h e fa rm u n i t h a s b e e n c a l c u l a t e d f o r v a r i ­
o u s y i e l d l e v e l s up t o t h e s u r v i v a l y i e l d . T h e s e
c a l c u l a t i o n s a re
b a s e d u p o n t h e incom e e q u a t i o n s g iv e n ab o v e and t h e e x p e n s e c a l c u l a t i o n s
d isc u s s e d p re v io u s ly .
The f a r m u n i t y i e l d r e m a in in g a f t e r t h e l a n d l o r d 's S h a re i s p a id
is ; t h r e e f o u r t h s o f t h e f a r m y i e l d i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a and two
t h i r d s o f t h e fa rm y i e l d i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a .
In th e s p rin g w heat
a r e a . T a b le I I o f A p p e n d ix B, t h e fa rm u n i t ' s l o s s p e r y e a r due t o a
l/
T h is l o s s o r p r o f i t i s te rm e d fa rm u n i t n e t c a s h in c o m e . Farm u n i t
n e t c a s h incom e i s c a l c u l a t e d by d e d u c t i n g t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s o f t h e
f i r m , incom e t a x e s , a n d f a m i ly l i v i n g e x p e n s e s . As s u c h , t h i s
in co m e c a n b e C o h s id e r e d t h e n e t in co m e t o a fa rm u n i t i n t h e
s h o rt-ru n .
- 37 z e r o y i e l d i s $ 6 ,7 2 4 ,
A z e r o y i e l d i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a . T a b le TTTj
r e s u l t s i n a t o t a l l o s s t o t h e f a r m u n i t o f $ 6 ,7 6 5 .
The a c t u a l y i e l d l e v e l an d t h e fa r m u n i t s h a r e t h e i n s u r e s s u r v i v a l
i n t h e s h o r t ' r u n a r e shown i n t h e s e t a b l e s f o r b o t h a r e a s .
The s p r i n g
w h e a t a r e a fa rm y i e l d i s 8 . 8 — fa rm u n i t s h a r e i s 6 .6 — b u s h e l s p e r
s e e d e d a c r.e .
I n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a t h e f a r m y i e l d i s 1 0 .6 , t h e
f a r m u n i t y i e l d i s 7 .0 7 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e .
R e s e r v e s R e q u ire d f o r S u r v i v a l i n t h e Short--R nn
Ag p r e v i o u s l y m e n tio n e d , t h e am ount o f r e s e r v e s n e e d e d t o i n s u r e
s u r v i v a l o f t h e f a r m u n i t t h a t o b t a i n s a z e r o y i e l d i s $ 6 ,7 2 4 f o r t h e
s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a an d $ 6 ,7 6 5 f o r t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a .
T h e r e f o r e , when o r i f t h e f a r m e r e x p e r i e n c e s , t h r e e s u c h y e a r s i n
s u c c e s s i o n , t h e r e s e r v e d n e e d e d t o i n s u r e s u r v i v a l w o u ld b e $ 2 0 ,1 7 2 and
$ 2 0 ,2 9 5 f o r t h e s p r i n g an d w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a s r e s p e c t i v e l y . .
E s t i m a t e s w e re r e q u i r e d o f t h e d o l l a r am ounts o f r e s e r v e s n e e d e d t o
i n s u r e s u r v i v a l o f t h e f a r m u n i t o v e r a t h r e e - y e a r tim e p e r i o d when
y i e l d s w e re a t o r b e lo w t h e s u r v i v a l l e v e l .
is
A t t h e s u r v i v a l y i e l d incom e
a d e q u a te t o c o v e r t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s o f t h e f i r m and h o u s e h o ld .
C ash
e x p e n s e d o p e n o t i n c l u d e a c h a r g e f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n ; t h i s i s an added
e x p e n s e w hen s u r v i v a l i n t h e l o n g - r u n i s c o n s i d e r e d .
Four y ie ld le v e ls
r a n g i n g fro m t h e s u r v i v a l y i e l d l e v e l down t o t h e z e r o y i e l d s i t u a t i o n
w e re s e l e c t e d f o r e a c h a r e a .
T hese y i e l d l e v e l s a r e i d e n t i f i e d a s
I , 2 , 3 , and, 4 i n T a b le s IV a n d V i n A p p e n d ix B.
The one y i e l d l e v e l
— 38 —
r e p r e s e n t s a z e r o y i e l d ; t h e r e i s no in co m e r e c e i v e d fro m t h e f a r m u n i t ,
A* t h e two y i e l d l e v e l t h e n e t incom e t o t h e fa rm u n i t i s
c o y e r t h e h o u s e h o ld c o s t s .
a d e q u a te t o
The h o u s e h o ld e x p e n s e s and one h a l f t h e
f i r m ' s e x p e n s e s a r e r e c o v e r e d when t h e y i e l d l e v e l i s i d e n t i f i e d a s a
th re e .
A t t h e f o u r y i e l d l e v e l incom e i s s u f f i c i e n t t o c o v e r t h e f ir m
an d h o u s e h o ld e x p e n s e s .
The f o u r y i e l d i s t h e s u r v i v a l y i e l d l e v e l o f
T a b le s I I and. I l l o f A p p e n d ix B.
A l l p o s s i b l e c o m b in a tio n s o f t h e s e f o u r y i e l d l e v e l s a r e t e s t e d
o v e r . t h r e e - y e a r tim e p e r i o d s w i t h t h e r e s u l t s b e in g p r e s e n t e d i n T a b le s
W and V o f A p p e n d ix B.
T h ese t a b l e s show t h e d o l l a r am o u n ts o f r e s e r v e s
n e e d e d f o r s u r v i v a l i n t h e s h o r t ' r u n f o r e a c h p o s s i b l e c o m b in a tio n o f
th e fo u r y ie ld le v e ls .
T h ese r e s u l t s a r e su m m arized i n T a b le s T and T I
on t h e f o l l o w i n g p a g e s .
The o r d e r o f t h e s e c o m b in a tio n s i s i m p o r t a n t ; th e f i r s t d i g i t i n a
s e r i e s i s t h e y e a r one y i e l d ; t h e s e c o n d d i g i t t h e y e a r tw o y i e l d ;
th e t h i r d th e y e a r th r e e y i e l d .
and
The d o l l a r am ount o f r e s e r v e s r e q u i r e d
f o r s u r v i v a l i s i d e n t i c a l f o r. s e v e r a l o f t h e s e c o m b in a tio n s .
F o r exam ple
a 1 1 3 , a 1 3 1 , a n d a 311 w i l l r e q u i r e t h e same am ount o f r e s e r v e s o v e r t h e
t h r e e - y e a r p e r i o d f o r s u r v i v a l a s , i n d i c a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g tw o t a b l e s .
H ow ever, a lt h o u g h t h e d o l l a r am ounts a r e i d e n t i c a l , e a c h o f t h e s e s e r i e s
r e q u i r e d i f f e r e n t m anagem ent b y t h e fa rm u n i t .
I n t h e e x a m p le c i t e d
,
a b o v e , t h e s i t u a t i o n w h e re tw o z e r o y i e l d s a r e f o llo w e d b y a y i e l d w here
t h e o p e r a t o r 's l o s s i s o n ly e q u i v a l e n t t o one h a l f t h e c a s h e x p e n s e
39
-
-
r e q u i r e s som ew hat d i f f e r e n t m anagem ent fro m t h e s i t u a t i o n w h e re t h e z e ro
y ie ld s a re s p l i t by th e th re e y ie ld .
I n t h e t a b l e s on t h e f o l l o w i n g p a g e s , t h e d o l l a r a m o u n ts o f r e s e r v e s
r e q u ir e d a re g ro u p ed .
T hese l i s t i n g s show t h e v a r i o u s c o m b in a tio n s t h a t
r e q u i r e t h e same am ount o f r e s e r v e s . a n d l i s t t h e d o l l a r am o u n ts i n o r d e r
o f m a g n itu d e .
By r e f e r r i n g t o T a b le s I , I I ,
and I I I i n A p p en d ix B t h e f a r m a n d /o r
f a r m u n i t y i e l d l e v e l s . t h a t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e incom e s i t u a t i o n s r e p r e ­
s e n t e d b y t h e f o u r , y i e l d l e v e l s c a n b e d e te r m in e d .
a r e a t h e one y i e l d s i t u a t i o n r e q u i r e s # 6 ,7 2 4 .
F o r th e s p rin g w heat
T h is , o f c o u r s e , i s t h e
z e r o y i e l d s i t u a t i o n fo u n d i n row one o f T a b le I I .
The tw o y i e l d con­
d i t i o n r e q u i r e s # 4 ,3 5 0 ( f i r m e x p e n s e s i n T a b le I ) and b y c h e c k in g T a b le I I
i t is
s e e n t h a t a fa r m u n i t l o s s o f # 4 ,3 5 0 c o r r e s p o n d s t o a f a r m y i e l d
b e tw e e n 3 . 1 a n d 3 . 2 .
T h is i s e q u a l t o a 2 .3 2 5 t o 2 . 4 b u s h e l y i e l d p e r
s e e d e d a c r e f o r t h e fa r m u n i t .
S im ila r ch e ck s fo r. th e o th e r y i e l d l e v e l s
c a n b e m ade.
When y i e l d s a r e ab o v e t h e s u r v i v a l y i e l d r e q u i r e d i n t h e s h o r t - r u n ,
t h e r e i s incom e a v a i l a b l e f o r lo n g r u n s u r v i v a l — t h e t o p i c t o b e
c o n s id e re d i n th e f o llo w in g c h a p te r.
TABLE Vo
BLEFEgENT YIELD COEB!NATIONS AND THE DOLLAR RESERVE REQHIREEENT FOR- SURVIVAL OVER
TNO AND THREE-YEAR TIME PERIODS. SPRING WHEAT AREA.
T h ree-y ear
R e s e rv e
R e q u ire m e n t
T h r e e - y e a r Y i e ld
C o m b in a tio h a /:.:
T w o-year
R e s e rv e
R e q u ire n le n t
T w o-year Y i e l d
Go m b in a ti o n a /
D o l,
2 0 ,1 7 2
1 7 ,7 9 7
15,622
15,422
1 3 ,4 4 8
13,247
1 3 ,0 4 7
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 1 ,0 7 2
1 0 ,8 7 2
8,898
8,698
8,697
6,724
6,523
s/
111
112, 121,
H 3 , 131,
122, 2 1 2 ,
i u , 141,
123, 132,
222
1 3 ,4 4 8
1 1 ,0 7 3
211
311
221
411
2 1 3 , 2 3 1 , 3 1 2 , 321
1 2 4 , 1 4 2 , 2 1 4 , 241 ■,• 412', 421
1 3 3 ; 3 1 3 ; 331
223, 232, 322
134, 1 4 3 , 314, 3 4 1 , 413, 431
224, 242, 422
233, 323, 332
1 4 4 , 4 1 4 , 441
234, 243, 324, 342, 423i 432
8,898
8,698
6,724
6,523
4,349
4,348
•
2 ,1 7 4
0
i n , J i ? , . . -1 1 3 , 114
121 , 122, 123, 1.24, 2 1 1 , 2 1 2 , 213, 214
1 3 1 , 132, 1 3 3 , 1 3 4 , 3 1 1 , 3 1 2 , 3 1 3 , 314
2 2 1 , 222, 223, 224
1 4 1 , 142, 143 > 1 4 4 , 4 1 1 , 4 1 2 , 4 1 3 , 414
231, 232, 233, 234, 3 2 1 , 322, 323, 324
241, 242, 243, 244, 4 2 1 , 422, 423, 424
■
•
‘
V
331, 332, 333, 334
3 4 1 , 342, 343, 3 4 4 , 431, 432, 433,
4 4 1 , 4/2, 443, 444
434
The f i r s t d i g i t i n e a c h o f t h o s e c o m b in a tio n s i s t h e y e a r one y i e l d , t h e s e c o n d d i g i t i s
t h e y e a r tw o y i e l d , and t h e t h i r d d i g i t i s t h e y e a r t h r e e y i e l d .
Thp fa rm y i e l d s
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s e n u m e r a ls a r e : 1 = 0 b u s h e l s ; 2 * 3 . 1 t o 3 .2 b u s h e l s ; 3 = 6 .0 t o 6 ,1
b u s h e l s ; 4 = 8 . 8 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e . A t t h e 8 , 8 . b u s h e l y i e l d ,i n c o m e t o t h e fa rm
u n i t i s a d e q u a te t o c o v e r t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s o f t h e f i r m an d h o u s e h o ld .
TABLE V I o DIFFERENT H ELD GOEB!NATIONS AND THE DOLLAR RESERVE REQUIREMENT FOR SURVIVAL OVER
WO AND THREE-YEAR TIME PERIODS, WINTER WHEAT AREA,
T h r e e - y e tir
R e s e rv e
R e q u ire m e n t
T h re e -y e a r Y ie ld
C o m b in a tio n s /
T w o-year
R e s e rv e
R e q u ire m e n t
T w o-year Y i e l d
C o m b iN a tio n a /
S olo.
20,295
.17,935'
15,733
15,575
13,530 .
13,373
13,215
1 1 ,1 7 1
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 1 ,0 1 3
8,968
8 ,8 1 1
8,810
6,765
6,609
6 ,6 0 8
- 4,406
4,405
2,203
O
s/
111
112, 121,
113, 131,
1 2 2 , 212,
114, 141,
123, 1 3 2 ,
222
3,968
8,810
6,765
213, 231, 3 1 2 , 321
1 3 3 , 3 1 3 , 331
1 2 4 , 142, 214,
223,
134,
233,
224,
144,
333
234,
334,
244,
344,
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
211
311
221
411
241, 412, 421
232, 322'
314, 341, 413, 4 3 1
323, 332
242, 422
6 ,6 0 8
4 ,4 0 6
4,405
2,203
0 '
111,
121,
131,
221,
141,
231,
331,
241,
. 341,
. 441,
112, 113,
122, 1.23,
132, 133,
2 2 2 , 223,
142 , 1 4 3 ,
232,
332,
242,
342,
233,
333,
243,
343,
4 4 2 , 443,
114
124, 2 1 1 , 2 1 2 , 2 1 3 , 214
1 3 4 , 3 1 1 , 3 1 2 , 3 1 3 , 314
224
1 4 4 , 4 1 1 , 4 1 2 , 4 1 3 , 414
234, 321, 322, 323, 324
334
244, 4 2 1 , 422,' 423, 424
344, 431, 432, 433, 434
444
143,
4 1 4 , 441
243,
343,
424,
434,
324, 342, 423, 432
433
442
443
444
The f i r s t d i g i t i n e a c h o f t h e s e c o m b in a tio n s i s t h e y e a r one y i e l d , t h e se c o n d d i g i t i s t h e
y e a r two y i e l d , an d t h e t h i r d , d i g i t i s t h e y e a r t h r e e y i e l d . lfie fa rm y i e l d s a s s o c i a t e d
w i t h t h e s e n u m e ra l's a r e ;
1 * 0 b u s h e l s ; 2 = 3 . 8 t o 3 , 9 b u s h e l s ; 3 - 7 .3 t o 7 . 4 b u s h e ls ;
4 = 1 0 .5 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e . A t t h e 1 0 .5 b u s h e l y i e l d , in co m e i s a d e q u a te t o c o v e r t h e
c a s h e x p e n s e s o f t h e f i r m and h o u s e h o ld .
CHAPTER IV
SURVIVAL AND CAPITAL ACCUWLATION
F o r t h e f a r m u n i t t o s u r v i v e i n t h e l o n g r u n , n e t c a s h Incom e m u st
b e a d e q u a te t ’o i n s u r e s u r v i v a l i n t h e s h o r t r u n and t o a l l o y r e p la c e m e n t
o f e q u ip m e n t and m a in te n a n c e o f b u i l d i n g s o v e r t im e .
F o r c a p i t a l accumu­
l a t i o n t h e r e m u st b e s u r p l u s f a r m u n i t n e t c a s h incom e a f t e r lo n g r u n
s u rv iv a l i s a ssu re d .
B e f o r e ' t h e s u r p l u s n e t c a s h incom e o f t h e fa rm u n i t
c a n b e d e te r m in e d t h e am ount £>f s u c h incom e r e t a i n e d i n l i q u i d fo rm t o
i n s u r e s u r v i v a l i n t h e s h o r t an d l o n g ru n - m u s t 'b e . known.'..
S h o r t Run S u r v i v a l
:
~
:-----------A t l e a s t i n t h e b e g i n n i n g , t h e am o u n ts o f r e s e r v e s t h a t seem t o be
n e c e s s a r y f o r s u r v i v a l o f t h e f a r m u n i t i n t h e s h o r t r u n w i l l b e m ain­
t a i n e d i n a n e a r l i q u i d fo rm .
C ash i n t h e b a n k and g r a i n s t o r e d on th e
f a r m a r e t h e tw o k i n d s o f l i q u i d r e s e r v e s t h a t w i l l b e e x a m in e d and '
c o m p a re d .
H ow ever, t o ea,se t h e c a l c u l a t i n g p r o c e d u r e , t h e g r a i n t h a t i s
s t o r e d on t h e f a r m w i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d n o t i n b u s h e l fo rm b u t i n te r m s o f
d o lla r e q u iv a le n ts .
T h e s e ,r e s e r v e s w i l l b e m a i n ta i n e d , when p o s s i b l e ,
i n a n u n e n c u m b e re d fo rm , t h e c a s h w i l l n o t b e i n v e s t e d and t h e g r a i n w i l l
h o t be s u b je c t to lo a n s .
The r e s e r v e s a r e a v a i l a b l e a t a l l t i m e s t o
in s u r e s u r v iv a l o f th e farm u n i t u n d e r s h o r t ru n c o n d itio n s .
These
r e s e r v e s w i l l be u t i l i z e d to in s u r e a l l th e y e a r ly c a sh e x p e n se s o f th e
f i r m an d h o u s e h o ld .
They w i l l n o t b e u s e d f o r r e p l a c e m e n t ,o f e q u ip m e n t
o r m a in te n a n c e o f b u i l d i n g s .
- 43 R e s e r v e s h a v e no in c o m e -p r o d u c in g a b i l i t y when t h e y a r e h e l d i n
t h e s e f o rm s ; i n f a c t ,
t h e r e t u r n o v e r tim e may b e n e g a t i v e .
T h u s, t h e
am ount o f incom e r e t a i n e d f o r t h e s p e c i f i c p u r p o s e o f i n s u r i n g s h o r t r u n
s u r v i v a l s h o u ld bp a s s m a ll a s p o s s i b l e .
Two d i f f e r e n t m e th o d s w e re u s e d i n a t t e m p t i n g t o d e te r m in e a l i q u i d
r e s e r v e l e v e l t h a t w o u ld p r o v id e a d e q u a te s u r v i v a l p r o t e c t i o n w i t h t h e
l o w e s t p o s s i b l e c a s h incom e com m itm ent.
v
I n C h a p te r I I I t h e d o l l a r am ounts o f r e s e r v e s t h a t w o u ld b e r e q u i r e d
t o i n s u r e s u r v i v a l f o r t h r e e - y e a r tim e p e r i o d s w ere c o n s i d e r e d f o r
d i f f e r e n t y i e l d c o m b i n a ti o n s .
I n t h e p r e s e n t c h a p t e r t h e maximum d o l l a r
am o u n ts t h a t w o u ld b e r e q u i r e d a t any one tim e when t h e tim e p e r i o d w as
e x te n d e d w e re c a l c u l a t e d .
Thp r e s u l t s . o f t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s , d i s c u s s e d
b e lo w , w i l l p r o v id e i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t w i l l b e o f v a lu e i n d e te r m i n in g t h e
l i q u i d r e s e r v e re q u ire m e n t f o r v a r io u s farm u n i t s .
Xt i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e fa rm u n i t c o u ld s u r v i v e o v e r t h e l o n g r u n i f
t h e r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t u n d e r s h o r t r u n c o n d i t i o n s becom es l a r g e r t h a n t h e
d o l l a r am ount n e c e s s a r y when t h r e e z e r o y i e l d y e a r s i n a row a r e ex p e ­
rie n c e d .
Thp f a r m u n i t w o u ld e i t h e r b e u n a b le t o a c c u m u la te t h i s am ount
o f r e s e r v e s o r i f t h e y c o u ld do s o , i t w o u ld b e u n e c o n o m ic a l.
As shown
i n C h a p te r I I I , t h e d o l l a r am ount o f r e s e r v e s n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e s i t u a t i o n
i n v o l v i n g t h r e e z e r o y i e l d s i n a row w as $ 2 0 ,1 7 2 i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a
a n d $ 2 0 ,2 9 5 i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a .
T h ese d o l l a r a m o u n ts w i l l b e d e f i n e d a s t h e maximum am ount o f l i q u i d
.
r e s e r v e s any one f a r m u n i t w o u ld a tt e m p t t o m a i n t a i n .
~
KK-
The p ro b le m f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g p a r t o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o d e te r m in e
a r e a s o n a b l e l i q u i d r e s e r v e am ount t h a t t h e fa rm u n i t c o u ld b e e x p e c te d
t o a tt e m p t t o m a i n t a i n o v e r t im e .
I t i s e x p e c te d t h a t t h i s r e s e r v e
am ount w i l l b e a t some l e v e l b e lo w t h e d e f i n e d maximum and w i l l v a r y t o
some e x t e n t w i t h t h e y i e l d l e v e l o f t h e b u d g e te d fa rm u n i t .
S h o r t Run S u r v i v a l s i n T ime S e r i e s
By a p p ly i n g t h e in co m e and e x p e n s e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n T a b le s
I I an d I I I o f A p p e n d ix B t o t h e y i e l d s e r i e s o f T a b le s I a n d I I o f Appen­
d i x A, t h e maximum am ount o f r e s e r v e s r e q u i r e d a t any one tim e f o r e a c h
s e r i e s c a n b e d e te r m i n e d .
T h ese am o u n ts s p e c ify - t h e maximum r e s e r v e
r e q u i r e m e n t s a t any one tim e f o r s u r v i v a l u n d e r s h o r t r u n c o n d i t i o n s .
The k n o w le d g e o f " th e s e a c c u m u la tiv e r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t s ( t h e a p p l i c a b l e
d o l l a r am ount i s a d d e d f o r e a c h y i e l d b e lo w t h e s u r v i v a l y i e l d , sub­
t r a c t e d f o r e a c h y i e l d ab o v e t h e s u r v i v a l y i e l d ) w i l l p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r
e s t i m a t i n g t h e l i q u i d r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t f o r e a c h y i e l d s e r i e s and f o r
e a c h y i e l d g ro u p w i t h i n t h e a r e a s .
When y i e l d s a r e b e lo w t h e s u r v i v a l l e v e l t h e am ount o f r e s e r v e s
r e q u i r e d o a n b e d e te r m in e d d i r e c t l y fro m e i t h e r T a b le I I o r I I I i n
A p p e n d ix B .
When y i e l d s a r e above t h e s u r v i v a l l e v e l t h e fa r m u n i t n e t
c a s h incom e o a n b e d e te r m in e d b y u s i n g t h e incom e and e x p e n s e e q u a t i o n s
fro m t h e p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r .
H ow ever, t h e fa r m u n i t e x p e n s e a s p r e v i o u s l y
- 45 c a l c u l a t e d d o e s n o t d e d u c t incom e t a x j t h e r e f o r e ^ t h e e x p e n s e am ounts
a r e o n ly c lo se ) e s t i m a t e s = 4 /
An Sxam ple o f t h e c a l c u l a t i o n p r o c e d u r e u s e d t o d e te r m in e t h e m ax i­
mum r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t a t any' ohe tim e i s p r e s e n t e d u s i n g y i e l d s e r i e s
t h r e e i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a ( T a b le I , A p p e n d ix A)„
Qf t h e 17 y e a r s o f
y i e l d d a t a i n t h i s s e r i e s , t h e r e a r e f i v e y e a r s when t h e f a r m y i e l d i s
b e lo w 8 . 8 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e .
(fa rm y i e l d )
Thpse y i e l d s a r e u s e d i n colum n o n q ,
T a b le I I o f A p p e n d ix B.
The f i r s t y i e l d b e lo w t h e s u r v i v a l l e v e l i s 5 .1 b u s h e l s , and by
v i s u a l i n s p e c t i o n o f T a b le I I i t i s
s e e n t h a t $ 2 ,9 0 3 w i l l b e n e e d e d t o
i n s u r e s u r v i v a l u n d e r s h o r t r u n c o n d i t i o n s , g iv e n t h i s y i e l d .
The n e x t
y e a r t h e fa r m y i e l d i s 6 . 2 b u s h e l s ; t h e r e f o r e , an a d d i t i o n a l $ 2 ,0 7 5 w ould
be re q u ire d .
The r e q u i r e m e n t f o r t h e t h i r d y e a r i s $ 3 0 8 .
T h e refo re,
b e f o r e a y i e l d above t h e s u r v i v a l l e v e l i s f o u n d , t h e t o t a l r e s e r v e
r e q u i r e m e n t f o r s u r v i v a l u n d e r s h o r t r u n c o n d i t i o n s w o u ld b e $ 5 ,2 8 6 .
How­
e v e r , t h e f o u r t h - y e a r y i e l d o f 1 1 .8 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e i s f o llo w e d
b y a y i e l d o f 6 .9 b u s h e l s .
T h is r e q u i r e s c a l c u l a t i n g t h e f a r m u n i t n e t
c a s h incom e fro m t h e 1 1 .8 b u s h e l y i e l d a s t h i s incom e may b e l e s s t h a n
I /
An e r r o r a r i s e s when t h e fa rm y i e l d i s above t h e l e v e l n e e d e d t o
p r o v i d e incom e t h a t w i l l b e s u f f i c i e n t t o c o v e r t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s
o f th e f ir m , y e a r l y d e p r e c ia t io n , and th e s ta n d a rd p e r s o n a l
■ d e d u c ti o n s a llo w e d b y in co m e t a x r e g u l a t i o n s .
The y i e l d l e v e l
r e q u i r e d t o p r o v id e t h i s am ount, o f in co m e i s 1 3 .1 i n t h e s p r i n g
w h e a t a r e a and 1 6 .7 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t
a re a .
- 46 t h e n e t o a s h l o s s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e 6 .9 b u s h e l y i e l d ' t h a t f o l l o w s . - /
Xn t h i s e x a m p le , h o w e v e r, t h e n e t c a s h in co m e r e c e i v e d fro m an I l 0S
b u s h e l y i e l d i s $ 2 ,6 7 9 w hich, i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e $1,,517 l o s s due t o t h e
6 .9 y ie ld ..
T h is f o u r t h - y e a r incom e m ore t h a n o f f s e t s t h e f i f t h - y e a r l o s s
a n d a s t h e r e a r e no y i e l d s b e lo w t h e s u r v i v a l l e v e l f o r t h e r e m a in d e r o f
t h e s e r i e s , t h e maximum r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t f o r t h i s y i e l d s e r i e s a t any
one tim e o v e r t h e 1 7 - y e a r p e r i o d i s $ 5 ,2 8 6 .
C a l c u l a t i o n s o f t h i s ty p e w e re c o m p le te d f o r e a c h y i e l d s e r i e s i n
b o th a re a s .
!Jhe r e s u l t s a r e shown i n d e t a i l i n T a b le s I a n d I I o f
A p p e n d ix C and su m m arized i n T a b le s V I I a n d V I I I ' on p a g e 4 7 .
When t h e y i e l d p e r s e e d e d a c r e w as ab o v e 9*3 I n t h e s p r i n g w h eat
a r e a , t h e i n c r e a s e i n n e t incom e b e f o r e incom e t a x e s f o r t h e f a r m u n i t w as
$ 8 6 . 6p f p r e a c h o n e - t e n t h b u s h e l i n c r e a s e i n fa rm y ie ld - , a s g r o s s incom e
i s " i n c r e a s i n g a t a c o n s t a n t r a t e a s a r e t h e f i r m 's ' e x p e n s e s .
I n th e
w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a , t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e f a r m k n i t ' s n e t in co m e b e f o r e
t a x e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a o n e - t e n t h b u s h e l y i e l d i n c r e a s e ab o v e 1 0 .5 b u s h e l s
i s $ 7 4 .4 0 .
;
I n T a b le s V I I and V I I I on p a g e 47 t h e y i e l d s e r i e s f o r e a c h a r e a
a r e g ro u p e d i n t o h i g h , m ean, and low y i e l d g r o u p s . ' The a v e r a g e y i e l d s
a n d d o l l a r r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r e a c h g ro u p a r e g i v e n .
2/
The f i n a l colum n f o r
F arm u n i t n e t c a s h in co m e i s c a l c u l a t e d b y t h e f o l l o w i n g s t e p s :
( 1 ) d e d u c t c a s h e x p e n s e and y e a r l y d e p r e c i a t i o n fro m g r o s s in com e;
(2 ) d e te r m in e t h e am ount o f incom e t a x p a y a b le on t h e r e m a in d e r ;
(3 ) d e d u c t t h e in co m e t a x ; (4 ) add b a c k t h e 'd e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e t o
t h i s r e s u l t ; ( 5 ) s u b t r a c t t h e f i x e d y e a r l y r e q u i r e m e n t f o r th e
h o u s e h o ld .
-U lTABEE V I I , . „ MXIMJM RESERVES IN. DOLLARS REQUIRED. AT ANY ONE TIME FOR SUR­
VIVAL UNDER SHORT RUN. CONDITIONS. FOR EACH YIELD SERIES IN
THE SPRING WHEAT..AREA. „ (FROM"TABLE I , APPENDIX C)„
:. . •
-:
Mean Y i e l d G roup
Low Y i e l d Group
Y i e l d A v erag e D o l l a r
Y i e ld A v e ra g e D o l l a r
S e r i e s Y i e ld . R e s e r v e s . S e r i e s Y i e l d , R e s e rv e s
' No.
Eu. '
P o l.
No.
E u.
' D o l,
H ig h Y i b l d Group
Y i e l d A v e ra g e D o l l a r
S e r ie s Y i e l d • R e se rv e s
E u.
' D o l.
No.
I
20
9
27
19
26
21
22
29
■ 24
'
1 7 .5
1 7 .3
1 7 .1
1 5 .7
1 5 .1
1 5 .1
14.9
14.6
1 4 .5
1 4 .4
A v e ra g e 15 .,6
TABLE V I I I .
472
3,436
6,724
3,296
5,384
2,304
6,724
3,830
3,375
8 ,1 1 7
16
15
IP ■ 13,8
13.8
3
2
13:7
8
13:4.
30
13.2
1 2 .8
4
18. '
6'
.
4 ,3 6 6
E u.
29.3
4 '
2
1 .8
33
21.0
9
20.9
17
2 0 .0
8
2 0 .0
29
23
• 1 9 .7
6
19.5
19.0
31
2
1 3 .8
1 7 .9
24
1 7 .8
7
■Average 2 0 .5
6 ,3 4 6
6,724
2 ,1 4 8
1 2 .4
1 1 .9 ,
5,286
4,334
4,838.
6,724
5,g34
6:724
6f.724 .
1 3 .3
5,508
7
25
. 14
13
. 12
17
11
5'
28
23
1 1 .8
" 5 ,8 3 7
1 1 .7
1 1 .5
1 1 .4
9,909
4,59P
15,970
9,577
4;588
8,241
1 1 .2
1 1 .2
1 1 .1
9 .7
8.5
1 3 ,1 7 1
1 1 ,2 0 1 •
6 .2
35,5S6
10,4.
1 1 ,9 5 3
MAXIMUM RE.SERVES IN DOLLARS REQUIRED AT ANY ONE TIME FOR SURVIVAL UNDER SHORT HUN CONDITIONS FOR EAOH YIELD SERIES I N i
THE WINTER WHEAT AREA. ' (FROM TABLE I I , APPENDIX C ) .
H ig h Y i e l d Groun
Y i e l d A v e ra g e D o l l a r
S e r i e s Y ib ld R e s e r v e s
No.
1 4 .0
1 3 .9
Mean Y i e l d G roun
Y i e l d A v erag e D o l l a r
S e r i e s Y i e ld R e s e r v e s
D o l.
' ' NqV
935
246
0
2 ,1 6 5
1 1 ,4 2 3
' 0
1,402
4,781
8,351
9,709
7,872
1 1 ,3 5 7
4,850
.
.
18
27
21
34"
37 ..
22
5
15 .
16
35
23
3
14
' ' Eu/ '
Dql=
1 7 .2
17 =0
1 6 .8
1 1 ,3 1 0
1 1 ,1 3 6
16.8
1 ,8 1 2
16=4
1 6 .3
16.2
15.8
15 =5'
1 4 .9
14.5
5,076
No.
Eu.
D o l.
I
32
36
25
12
13 =4
13=4
13 =2
1 2 .8
6,621
9,578
4,723
9,832
11,455 '
6,765
26
2,944 "
■
10
2,944
30
26,552
13
7,929
4,534 . ' 19
20
4,551
12.5
11
14=4
1 1 ,1 4 4
1 4 . 1 . . 6,765
15 =8.
Low Y i e l d Groun
Y i e l d A v e ra g e D o l l a r
S e r ie s Y ie ld R e se rv e s
7,959
1 1 .7
11=6
11=4
1 0 .7
1 0 .6
1 0 ,0 1 2
9.7
7 .0
1 3 ,2 7 0
A l . 061
1 1 .5
8,865
20,350
14,687
1 2 ,0 3 9
12,706.
-
48 -
e a c h g ro u p r e c o r d s t h e maximum am ount o f l i q u i d r e s e r v e s r e q u i r e d a t any­
one tim e t o i n s u r e s u r v i v a l o f t h e fa rm u n i t u n d e r s h o r t run: c o n d i t i o n s .
I n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a t h e r e i s o n ly one y i e l d s e r i e s t h a t r e q u i r e s
m ore r e s e r v e s t h a n th e ' d e f i n e d maximum am ount ($ 2 0 ,1 7 2 ) an y one fa rm u n i t
w o u ld a tt e m p t t o m a i n t a i n ; i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a t h e r e a r e t h r e e t h a t
a r e aboye t h e d e f i n e d maximum am ount ($ 2 0 ,2 9 5 )
The maximum l i q u i d r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t a t any one tim e f o r s u r v i v a l
f o r t h e s p r i n g w h e a t s e r i e s i s $ 3 5 , 550 ; t h e maximum i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t
a r e a i s $ 4 1 ,0 6 1 . ( s e e T a b le s V I I a n d V I I l j . . The a v e ra g e am o u n t' o f t h i s
r e q u i r e m e n t f o r t h e r e m a in i n g 29 y i e l d s e r i e s i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a i s
$ 6 ,3 0 1 ; t h e r a n g e i s fro m $ 4 7 2 t o $ 1 5 ,9 7 0 .
T h is c o m p a re s to . an a v e ra g e
am ount o f $ 7 ,0 6 0 f o r t h e 34 y i e l d s e r i e s r e m a in in g i n t h e w i n t e r w h eat
a r e a , t h e r a n g e b e i n g fro m $0 t o $ 1 4 ,6 8 7 .
■
The a v e ra g e r e q u i r e m e n t i s
h i g h e r and s u b j e c t t o m ore v a r i a t i o n f o r a l l t h r e e y i e l d g r o u p s i n t h e
w in te r w heat a re a th a n i n th e s p rin g w heat a re a .
As shown i n T a b le V I I , i f a l i q u i d r e s e r v e i n d o l l a r te r m s e q u iv a ­
l e n t t o $ 6 ,7 2 4 (one z e r o y i e l d r e q u i r e m e n t ) h a d b e e n a v a i l a b l e a t th e
b e g i n n i n g o f t h e tim e p e r i o d c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e s e s p r i n g w h e a t y i e l d
s e r i e s ', 22 o f t h e 30 w o u ld h a v e h a d a d e q u a te r e s e r v e s f o r s u r v i v a l u n d e r
th e s h o rt ru n c o n d itio n s .
F o r t h e two h i g h e r y i e l d i n g g r o u p s , 19 o f t h e
20 w i t h i n t h i s a r e a w o u ld h a v e h a d am ple r e s e r v e p r o t e c t i o n .
H ow ever,
i n t h e lo w e s t y i e l d g ro u p o n ly t h r e e o f t h e 10 w o u ld h a v e a d e q u a te p r o ­
t e c t i o n b e g in n i n g w i t h a $ 6 ,7 2 4 r e s e r v e .
3/
D e f in e d maxim um a m o u n ts d e v e lo p e d i n C h a p te r I I I .
-
49
-
When t h e o n e - y e a r r e s e r v e e q u i v a l e n t a s s u m p tio n i s a p p l i e d t o t h e
w i n t e r - w h e a t a r e a y i e l d s e r i e s ( T a b le V I H ) , o n ly I ? o f t h e 37 w ould have,
h a d a d e q u a te p r o t e c t i o n f o r s u r v i v a l u n d e r s h o r t r u n c o n d i t i o n s .
F ifte e n
.of t h e 25 i n t h e tw o h i g h e s t y i e l d g r o u p s w o u ld h a v e am ple r e s e r v e p r o ­
t e c t i o n a s w o u ld h a v e o n ly tw o o f t h e 12 i n t h e l o w 'y i e l d g r o u p .
I t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e r e a r e two d i f f e r e n t c o n d i t i o n s t h a t , i n f l u e n c e
t h e am ount o f r e s e r v e s r e q u i r e d f o r s u r v i v a l . i n t h e s e a r e a s .
TJhe
r e q u i r e m e n t i n c r e a s e s a s y i e l d p e r s e e d e d .a c r e d e c r e a s e s and a l s o
in c r e a s e s as th e c o e f f ic ie n t o f v a r ia tio n in c r e a s e s ^
H ow ever, i s o l a t e d
c a s e s a r e n o t e d w h e re t h i s . d o e s, n o t h o l d t r u e .
I t is
assum ed t h a t , t h e am ount o f l i q u i d r e s e r v e s c o n s i d e r e d ad e­
q u a t e w i l l b e a v a i l a b l e t o t h e fa rm u n i t a t t h e b e g in n i n g o f t h e tim e
p e r i o d b e in g c o n s i d e r e d .
When t h e n e t c a s h incom e o f t h e f a r m u n i t i s
i n a d e q u a t e t o c o v e r t h e c a s h e x p e n s e o f t h e f i r m and t h e h o u s e h o ld
e x p e n s e s , t h e l i q u i d r e s e r v e w i l l b e r e d u c e d b y t h e am ount n e c e s s a r y t o
I
'
' '
c o v e r th e d if f e r e n c e .
I n s u b s e q u e n t y e a r s , t h e am ount t a k e n fro m t h e
l i q u i d r e s e r v e w i l l b e r e p l a c e d fro m n e t c a s h incom e b y one- o f two
m e th o d s .
I n t h e one c a s e , any tim e t h a t n e t c a s h incom e i s p o s i t i v e t h e
s u rp lu s w i l l be t r a n s f e r r e d to th e l i q u i d r e s e r v e fu n d u n le s s th e l iq u id
r e s e r v e f u n d - i s a t t h e s p e c i f i e d maximum.
I n th e a l t e r n a t i v e s i t u a t i o n ,
t h e l i q u i d r e s e r v e f u n d w i l l b e r e p a i d when n e t c a s h incom e i s
q u a t e s i z e t o r e q u i r e an in co m e t a x p a y m e n t.
o f-a d e ­
The n e t e f f e c t o f e i t h e r
o f t h e s e m e th o d s w i l l b e i d e n t i c a l when t h e l i q u i d 'r e s e r v e i s cU sh i n
- 50 t h e b a n k b u t w i l l be. d i f f e r e n t w hen t h e r e s e r v e i s h e l d a s g r a i n s t o r e d .
I h e am ount o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e w i l l b e e q u a l t o t h e s a v in g s due to . lo w e r
in co m e t a x e s .
S u r v i v a l i n t h e Lnnfr Rnn
W ith t h e am o u n ts o f l i q u i d r e s e r v e s r e q u i r e d f o r s u r v i v a l u n d e r
s h o r t r u n c o n d i t i o n s i n m in d , t h e a n a l y s i s c a n now t u r n t o t h e g o a ls
t h a t w e re p r e s e n t e d i n C h a p te r I a s r e a l i s t i c
fa rm u n i t g o a l s .
S i x y i e l d s e r i e s , one fro m e a c h y i e l d g ro u p f o r e a c h a r e a , w ere
s e l e c t e d t o d e v e lo p e s t i m a t e s o f t h e a m o u n ts o f y e a r l y s u r p l u s a v a i l a b l e
t o fa r m u n i t s .
The am ount o f y e a r l y s u r p l u s i s t h e n e t c a s h incom e o f
t h e f a r m u n i t t h a t i s a v a i l a b l e f o r r e p l a c e m e n t o f d e p r e c i a b l e fa rm
• u n i t i t e m s and f o r i n v e s t m e n t .
When t h i s s u r p l u s i s a d e q u a te o v e r tim e
t o r e p l a c e t h e d e p r e c i a b l e i te m s t h e f a r m u n i t c a n s u r v i v e i n t h e lo n g
ru n .
Any s u r p l u s a f t e r lo n g r u n s u r v i v a l i s
a ssu re d w i l l be a v a ila b le
f o r t h e g o a l o f c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n .
I n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a , y i e l d s e r i e s 1 9 , 3 , and 12 w e re u s e d a s
t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e h i g h , m ean, an d low y i e l d g r o u p s r e s p e c t i v e l y
( s e e T a b le V I l ) .
The l i q u i d r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t c o n s i d e r e d a d e q u a te f o r
s h o r t r u n s u r v i v a l f o r t h e f i r s t tw o s e r i e s w as $ 6 ,7 2 4 ; f o r t h e l a t t e r
s e r i e s , $ 1 0 ,0 8 6 .
R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e h i g h , m ean, a n d low y i e l d g r o u p s i n th e
w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a w e re y i e l d s e r i e s 6 , 1 6 , a n d 19 r e s p e c t i v e l y Csee
T a b le V I I I ) .
The l i q u i d r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t c o n s id e r e d a d e q u a te f o r
s h o r t r u n s u r v i v a l f o r t h e two h i g h e s t y i e l d s e r i e s i n t h i s a r e a w as
$ 1 0 ,1 4 7 .
The low y i e l d g ro u p s e r i e s n e e d s l i q u i d r e s e r v e s e q u a l t o
$ 1 3 ,5 3 0 .
T hese d o l l a r am o u n ts o f r e s e r v e s a r e assum ed t o b e a v a i l a b l e
a t t h e b e g in n i n g o f t h e tim e p e r i o d b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d .
-
51
-
T a b le s I I I th r o u g h V I I I i n A p p e n d ix C show t h e y e a r l y s u r p l u s f o r
each o f th e s e y ie ld s e r i e s .
The fa rm u n i t n e t c a s h incom e and y e a r l y
s u r p l u s a r e c a l c u l a t e d b y t h r e e d i f f e r e n t m e th o d s :
h e ld a s c a sh i n th e b ank;
( l ) th e re s e rv e i s
( 2 ) t h e r e s e r v e i s h e l d a s g r a i n i n s to r a g e
w i t h r a p i d r e p la c e m e n t (a n y d e f i c i t i s r e p l a c e d when n e t c a s h incom e i s
a p o s i t i v e a m o u n t); a n d ( 3 ) t h e r e s e r v e i s h e l d a s g r a i n i n s t o r a g e
w i t h r e p la c e m e n t o n ly f r o m .h ig h y i e l d y e a r s .
Two a d d i t i o n a l y e a r s (1 9 5 7 a n d 1 9 5 8 ) o f y i e l d d a t a w e re made
a v a i l a b l e a t t h i s s t a g e o f d e v e lo p m e n t f o r e a c h o f t h e s e s e r i e s and h a s
b een in c lu d e d f o r th e c a lc u la tio n o f y e a r ly s u rp lu s .
W ith t h i s e x c e p t i o n ,
t h e s e y i e l d s e r i e s a r e t h o s e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b le s I and I I o f A p p en d ix A.
•The c u m u la tiv e v a l u e o f t h e y e a r l y s u r p l u s d e te r m in e d by; t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s
c o m p le te d i n T a b l e s I I I t h r o u g h V I I I i n A p p e n d ix C a r e p r e s e n t e d a s
T a b le IX on p a g e 5 2 .
The v a lu e o f t h e a s s e t s owned b y t h e fa rm u n i t a t t h e b e g in n i n g o f
t h e p e r i o d w as $ 1 5 ,7 5 0 f o r m a c h in e ry and e q u ip m e n t and $ 9 ,2 5 0 f o r
b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld e q u ip m e n t i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a .
The y e a r l y
d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r t h e s e i te m s w as $ 3 ,3 0 5 i n t h i s a r e a , $ 2 ,4 7 5 f o r
m a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t, an d $830 f o r b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld e q u ip m e n t.
I n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a t h e b e g in n i n g v a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y and
e q u ip m e n t w as $ 20 , 500 ; t h e h o u s e h o ld e q u ip m e n t and b u i l d i n g s w e re v a lu e d
a t $ 1 0 ,0 0 0 .
The y e a r l y d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e t o t a l e d $ 4 ,0 6 7 , $ 3 ,2 0 7 f o r
m a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t, $860 f o r b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld e q u ip m e n t.
The t o t a l c h a r g e f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n f o r t h e p e r i o d o f tim e c o n s id e r e d
f o r e a c h s e r i e s w as c a l c u l a t e d b y tw o d i f f e r e n t m e th o d s :
( l ) i t w as
assum ed t h a t t h e v a l u e o f t h e owned i t e m s w o u ld have.,, i f p o s s i b l e , t h e
-
TABLE IX .
52
-
CTJMJLATIVB YEARLY SURPLUS AVAILABLE FOR LONG RUN SURVIVAL AND
. CAPITAL ACCUMULATION WHEN RESERVES ARE MANAGED AS CASH IN THE
. BANK, GRAIN STORED AND REPLACED RAPIDLY, AND GRtAlN STORED AND
REPLACED ONLY IN HIGH YIELD YEARS, FOR THE TffRFF SELECTED '
YIELD SERIES IN EACH OF THE TWO STUDY ARFAF, '
A re a
S p r in g W heats
W in te r W heats
Y ie ld
S e r ie s ,
C ash i n
Bank
Np.
D p i.
G r a in R e p la c e d
■R a p id ly
. . .• ■
■
P o l.
S e r i e s 19
S e rie s 3
S e r i e s 12
83,#30
67,679
49,973
8 4 ,4 5 1
.6 8 ,6 2 0 '
5 3 ,0 1 7
S e rie s 6
S e r i e s 16
S e r i e s 19
1 5 0 ,4 1 2
1 5 0 ,7 7 2
72,939
15,794
74,952
,
I
-
- T
•"
«"■
'
G r a in R e p la c e d
fro m H ig h Y i e ld s
M .
85,710
7 0 ,8 6 8
5 5 ,7 2 0
1 5 1 ,7 7 6
76,7.80
. . 26,,984 .
1 8 ,4 6 2
;
•
~
__
.
1"
■
niJ ^ ^
~
^ ^
T ~
11111 n
n " ‘^ ^
^ I-
same v a l u e a t t h e e n d o f t h e tim e p e r i o d a s a t t h e b e g in n i n g ; a n d (2 ) t h e
e n d in g i n v e n t o r y w o u ld a llo w f o r . c o m p le te d e p r e c i a t i o n o f t h e m a c h in e ry
and e q u ip m e n t; o n ly t h e b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld e q u ip m e n t w o u ld h a v e t h e
b e g in n in g in v e n to r y v a lu e .
T h is l a t t e r a s s u m p tio n i s c o n s i d e r e d a r e a l i t y
f o r t h e fa r m u n i t t h a t p l a n s r e t i r e m e n t a t t h e e n d o f t h e tim e p e r i o d .
The t o t a l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r e a c h y i e l d s e r i e s i s p r e s e n t e d i n
T a b le X on p a g e 5 3 .
The d o l l a r d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n t h e same a r e a a r e due
t o t h e num ber o f y e a r s o f d a t a t h e s e r i e s c o n t a i n .
When t h e a g g r e g a te am o u n ts o f n e t s u r p l u s fro m T a b le IX a r e com­
p a r e d t o t h e t o t a l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i n T a b le X i t
a p p e a r s t h a t lo n g
r u n s u r v i v a l i s a s s u r e d f o r y i e l d s e r i e s 19 an d t h r e e i n t h e s p r i n g
w h e a t a r e a and s e r i e s s i x i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a .
S e r i e s 16 i n t h e
w i n t e r w h e a t a r e a w o u ld a p p e a r t o b e a t t h e m a r g in , w h ile i t
seem s y i e l d
- 53 -
Seri0S 12 in the spring wheat area and 19 in the winter wheat area would
be unable to survive in the long run.
TABLE X.
CUMILATIVE DEPRECIATION CHARGE TO MAINTAIN COMPLETE INVENTORY
AND TO DEPRECIATE. OUT EQUIPMENT AT END OF PERIOD FOR THRFF
SELECTED YIELD SERIES IN EACH STUDY AREA.
Y ie ld
S e rie s
- .I o .
A re a
S p r i n g W h eat;
W in te r W heats
D e p r e c i a t i o n O b ie c tn va
M a in te n a n c e ^ /
D e p r e c i a t e d O utitf
S o l.
-D ol,
S e r i e s 19
S e rie s 3
S e r i e s 12
62,795
62,795
69,405
4 7 ,0 4 5
4 7 ,0 4 5
S e rie s 6
S e r i e s 16
S e r i e s 19
89,474
85,407
68,974
64,907
56,773
7 7 ,2 7 3
53,655
D/
A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i s m ade e a c h y e a r .
b/
Only t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld e q u ip m e n t i s
made i n t h e l a t e r y e a r s .
To o b t a i n a c l o s e r e s t i m a t e o f t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e s e 'f a r m u n i t s t o
s u r v i v e i n t h e lo n g r u n t h e y e a r l y s u r p l u s am o u n ts w e re s u b j e c t e d t o
a d d itio n a l c a lc u la tio n .
By s u b t r a c t i n g t h e d o l l a r am ount o f d e p r e c i a t i o n
fro m t h e y e a r l y . s u r p l u s f o r e a c h y e a r t h e c a p i t a l a v a i l a b l e f o r c a p i t a l
a c c u m u la tio n i s i s o l a t e d , . The am ount o f t h i s r e s i d u a l g i v e s an i n d i ­
c a t i o n o f t h e fa rm u n i t ' s a b i l i t y t o s u r v i v e a s w e l l a s A ccu m u late
c a p ita l.
A n o th e r m eth o d o f e s t i m a t i n g t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e fa r m u n i t t o
s u rv iv e i n th e lo n g ru n i s by v i s u a l i n s p e c tio n o f th e y e a r l y s u rp lu s
c o lu m n s i n T a b le s I I I t h r o u g h V T II o f A p p e n d ix C.
Whpn f o r a p e r i o d o f
c o n s e c u t i v e y e a r s t h e r e i s no y e a r l y s u r p l u s , t h e fa rm u n i t w i l l n o t
s u rv iv e „
The num ber o f s u c h y e a r s t h a t t h e u n i t c a n s t a n d w i l l v a r y
- 54 ■with m an ag em en t, a t l e a s t t o some d e g r e e „
A lth o u g h d e p r e c i a t i o n i s
• w r i tt e n o f f a s a y e a r l y e x p e n s e f o r in co m e t a x c o m p u t a t i o n s , ' i t
seem s
t h a t t h e r e p la c e m e n t o f d e p r e c i a b l e i t e m s i s n o r m a lly a f u n c t i o n o f t h e
fa r m u n i t n e t c a s h in c o m e .
I f t h i s w o u ld n o t b e t r u e v e r y few fa rm
u n i t s w o u ld s u r v i v e i n t h e l o n g r u n , a s i n d i c a t e d b y t h e v a r i a t i o n in.
■ y e a rly s u r p l u s f o r t h e s e s i x y i e l d s e r i e s .
T a b le s IX t h r o u g h XIV summa r i z e t h e y e a r —t o —y e a r incom e p o s i t i o n s
o f th e s e s ix farm u n i t s .
The y e a r l y s u r p l u s , am ounts i n t h e s e t a b l e s
w e re t a k e n fro m t h e l a s t c o lu m n s o f T a b le s I I I t h r o u g h V I I I o f Appear .
d i x Co' T h is t h e n , i s t h e y e g tr ly s u r p l u s w hen th e . l i q u i d r e s e r v e i s h e ld
.
0
a s s t o r e d g r a i n and an y r e p l a c e m e n ts a r e made o n ly when t h e y i e l d s a re
a d e q u a te t o r e q u i r e an in co m e t a x p a y m e n t i f t h e g r a i n w e re s o l d .
The
n e t w o r th o f t h e s e f a r m u n i t s , t h e v a l u e o f t h e l i q u i d r e s e r v e p l u s
t h e v a lu e o f t h e d e p r e c i a b l e i te m s owned b y t h e fa rm u n i t p l u s t h e cumu­
la tiv e
s u r p l u s . f o r i n v e s t m e n t , a r e g iv e n i n t h e s e t a b l e s f o r t h e b e g in ­
n i n g o f t h e tim e p e r i o d , e a c h y e a r o f t h e tim e p e r i o d , . and a t t h e end
o f t h e tim e p e r i o d .
T h is n e t w o r th i s g r a p h i c a l l y p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e s 8
a n d 9 on t h e f o l l o w i n g p a g e s .
T h is w o u ld b e t h e n e t w o r th o f t h e fa rm
u n i t i f t h e s u r p l u s f o r i n v e s t m e n t w e re h e l d a t a z e ro r a t e o f i n t e r e s t .
The n e t w o r th o f a f a r m u n i t r e p r e s e n t e d b y y i e l d s e r i e s 12 i n
th e s p rin g w heat a re a i s
a t i t s h i g h e s t v a l u e a t t h e 'b e g i n n i n g o f t h e
tim e p e r i o d . ( s e e F i g u r e 8 ) .
,A t t h e e n d o f t h e t w e l f t h y e a r t h e n e t
w o r th o f t h i s u n i t w as $ 2 ,0 5 4 , a d e c r e a s e o f $ 3 3 ,0 3 2 fro m t h e b e g in n in g
in v e n to ry .
When a f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i s d e d u c te d fro m t h e y e a r l y
s u r p l u s f o r t h i s u n i t t h e r e i s a t no tim e a s u r p l u s f o r i n v e s t m e n t .
- 55 N
e
t
W
0
r
t
h
T—
Y ie ld
S e r i e s 19
1
n
Y i e ld S e r i e s 3
T
h
o
u
S
Y i e ld S e r i e s 12
a
n
d
s
Y ears
F ig u re 8 .
Y e a r - t o - y e a r N e t W orth f o r t h e T h re e S e l e c t e d Y i e l d S e r i e s i n
t h e S p r in g W heat A re a .
t h e r e f o r e , no c h a n c e f o r c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n .
T h is f i r m w o u ld be
u n a b le t o p r o v id e a d e q u a te r e s e r v e s n e c e s s a r y f o r lo n g r u n s u r v i v a l and
e v e n w i t h r e s e r v e s p r o v id e d by i n s t i t u t i o n s ,
fe rtiliz e rs ,
s u r v i v a l i s e x tr e m e ly d o u b t f u l .
su c h a s i n s u r a n c e and
I t w ould a p p e a r t h a t a
fa rm u n i t w i t h y i e l d e x p e r i e n c e o f t h i s ty p e h a s o n ly t h e a l t e r n a t i v e
o f i n c r e a s i n g s i z e f o r s u r v i v a l , a s su m in g eco n o m ies o f s c a l e do e x i s t .
A lth o u g h t h e n e t w o r th o f a fa rm u n i t r e p r e s e n t e d b y y i e l d s e r i e s
t h r e e i n t h e s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a i s o n ly $ 1 1 ,0 3 4 a t t h e e n d o f 10 y e a r s
i t i s assum ed t h a t t h i s u n i t c o u ld s u r v i v e w i t h some r e l i a n c e upon
r e s e r v e s p r o v id e d b y i n s t i t u t i o n s .
I t seem s a fa rm u n i t t h a t
e x p e r i e n c e s y i e l d s a s t h o s e o f y i e l d s e r i e s 19 i n t h i s a r e a c o u ld
PT
C+
*-J
~ 56 ~
(X t3 (B D 3 f3 0 C r» -3
D
H*
Y ie ld S e r ie s 6
Y i e ld S e r i e s 16
Y ears
F ig u re 9 .
Y i e l d S e r i e s 19
Y e a r - t o - y e a r N e t W o rth f o r t h e T h re e S e l e c t e d Y i e l d S e r i e s
i n t h e W in te r- W heat A re a .
- 57 p r o v i d e a d e q u a te p r o t e c t i o n f o r s u r v i v a l i n t h e lo n g r u n -w ith o u t r e l y i n g
u p o n r e s e r v e s fro m n o n - u n i t s o u r c e s .
The s u r p l u s f o r i n v e s t m e n t f o r t h i s
f a r m u n i t i s $ 2 9 ,8 7 2 .
D e c i s i o n s c o n c e r n in g t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e fa r m u n i t s i n t h e w i n t e r w h e a t
a r e a t o s u r v i v e i n t h e l o n g r u n u n d e r t h e g i v e n a s s u m p tio n s c a n b e made
q u ite e a s ily
(s e e F ig u re 9 ) .
T h e re w o u ld b e no c h a n c e f o r s u r v i v a l o f
t h e f a r m u n i t r e p r e s e n t e d by y i e l d s e r i e s 1 9 ; t h e fa r m u n i t r e p r e s e n t e d
b y y i e l d s e r i e s 16 c o u ld s u r v i v e w i t h r a t h e r h e a v y r e l i a n c e u p o n r e s e r v e s
p r o v id e d b y i n s t i t u t i o n s i f t h e s u r p l u s f o r i n v e s tm e n t w e re w i s e l y
in v e s te d .
The f a r m u n i t r e p r e s e n t e d b y y i e l d s e r i e s s i x c o u l d q u i t e
e a s i l y s u r v i v e a s w e l l a s a c c u m u la te c a p i t a l .
C a p i t a l A c c u m u la tio n
The d o l l a r am o u n ts o f n e t c a s h in co m e t h a t a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r c a p i t a l
a c c u m u la tio n b y y e a r s a r e i s o l a t e d f o r e a c h y i e l d s e r i e s i n T a b le s IX
th r o u g h XIV o f A p p e n d ix C and a r e i d e n t i f i e d b y t h e c o lu m n s e n t i t l e d
s u r p lu s f o r in v e s tm e n t,
A s s t a t e d i n t h e p r e c e d in g s e c t i o n , t h e am ounts
o f y e a r l y s u r p l u s a c c u m u la te d u n d e r t h e g r a i n s t o r a g e l i q u i d r e s e r v e
w i t h r e p la c e m e n t on h i g h y i e l d i n g y e a r s w as u s e d .
The in co m e t a x advan­
t a g e a c c r u i n g o v e r tim e fro m t h i s m eth o d r a n g e d fro m a h i g h o f $ 5 ,7 4 7
( y i e l d s e r i e s 1 2 , s p r i n g w h e a t a r e a ) t o a low o f $ 1 ,3 6 1 ( y i e l d s e r i e s
s i x . W in te r w h e a t a r e a ) .
The ad .v a n ta g e i s t h e g r e a t e s t w hen t h e
v a r i a t i o n i n in co m e i s - h i g h , w h ic h i s a f u n c t i o n o f y i e l d s =
The u s i n g o f t h e y e a r l y s u r p l u s a c c u m u la te d u n d e r t h i s fo rm o f
g r a i n r e s e r v e s r e q u i r e s t h e a s s u m p tio n t h a t t h e incom e t a x s a v in g s a r e
g r e a t enough to o f f s e t s to r a g e c o s ts a s s o c ia te d w ith th e g r a in .
The s u r p l u s , f o r i n v e s t m e n t , c a l c u l a t e d u n d e r t h e a s s u m p tio n s d i s ­
c u s s e d u n d e r s u r v i v a l i n t h e lo n g r u n , w as assum ed t o b e i n v e s t e d a t
v a rio u s r a t e s o f i n t e r e s t .
O th e r a s s u m p tio n s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s e
c a l c u l a t i o n s w e re t h a t t h e i n v e s t m e n t s w o u ld b e made a t a p p r o x im a te ly
t h e same d a t e e a c h i n v e s t i n g y e a r and t h a t t h e i n t e r e s t ( o r d iv id e n d )
w o u ld b e r e i n v e s t e d on t h i s same d a t e .
a n n u a lly .
The i n t e r e s t w as com pounded
The v a lu e o f t h e s e i n v e s t m e n t s a t t h e eh d o f t h e tim e
p e r i o d c o n s i d e r e d a r e su m m arized i n T a b le X I on p a g e 5 9 .
The num ber
a n d a m o u n ts o f i n v e s t m e n t s b y y e a r s a r e fro m t h e s u r p l u s f o r i n v e s t ­
m en t co lu m n o f T a b le s IX , X, X I I , and X I I I o f A p p e n d ix C.
An i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e im p o r ta n c e o f t h e tim e when i n v e s t m e n t s c a n
b e made i s i n c l u d e d i n T a b le X I.
C om pare, i n t h e 6 p e r c e n t r a t e o f
i n t e r e s t c o lu m n ,, t h e d o l l a r g ro w th due t o i n t e r e s t a c c u m u la tio n s i n
y i e l d s e r i e s s i x and 1 9 .
The v a l u e o f t h e i n v e s t m e n t a t t h e z e r o
r a t e o f i n t e r e s t , (su m m atio n o f t h e s u r p l u s f o r in v e s t m e n t ) f o r y i e l d
s e r i e s 19 i n t h e p a r t i a l v a l u e row i s $ 3 9 ,9 9 4 a n d t h i s g ro w s t o a
$ 7 1 ,2 3 8 v a l u e w hen i n v e s t e d a t 6 p e r c e n t .
T h is i n c r e a s e i s $ 3 1 ,2 2 4 ,
The v a l u e o f th e . s u r p l u s f o r in v e s t m e n t f o r y i e l d s e r i e s s i x u n d e r t h e
p a r t i a l v a l u e row i s $ 8 2 ,8 0 2 an d t h i s g ro w s t o a $ 1 0 6 ,9 6 6 v a l u e when
in v e s te d a t 6 p e rc e n t.
The d o l l a r d i f f e r e n c e i n t h i s c a s e i s $ 2 4 ,1 6 4 .
T h is i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n t h e $ 3 1 ,2 2 4 g ro w th f o r t h e y i e l d
- 59 s e r i e s 19 e a s e , and i s due t o t h e tim e t h e i n v e s t m e n t s w e re made a s o a n
b e s e e n i n t h e a p p l i c a b l e t a b l e i n A p p e n d ix C„
TABLE
XI. DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SURPLUS FOR INVESTMENT AT THE END CF THE
TIME PERIOD WHEN INVESTED AT VARIOUS RATES QF INTEREST FOR'
TWO SELECTED YIELD SERIES IN EACH STUDY AREA.
Y i e ld
S e rie s
A re a
S p r in g
W h e at;
W in te r
W heats
D e p re c ia tio n
O b ie c tiv e
R a te o f I n t e r e s t
0$
3%
4%
5*
6#
P o l.
P o l.
D o l8
D o l.
D o l.
S e r i e s '19:
M a in te n a n c e S /
D e p r . O utiv
29,872
39,994
41,506
52,810
46,498
58,218
52,182
64,332
58,645
71,238
S e rie s
3:
M a in te n a n c e ^ /
D e p r . Out—/
11,965
23,823
15,324
28,148
16,727
29,884
18,306
31,804
20,075
33,922
S e rie s
6:
M a in te n a n c e ^ /
D e p r . Out—/
62,302
82,802
71,414
93,661
74,929
97,794
78,723
102,221
1 0 6 ,9 6 6
M a in te n a n c e ^ / 9,143
D e p r . Out—/
1 1 ,8 7 3
1 3 ,8 3 1
1 6 ,5 6 1
15,834
18,564
18,102
20,832
S e r i e s . 16;
82,811
20,671
2 3 ,4 0 1
-S/
A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i s made e a c h y e a r .
b/
Only t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld . e q u ip m e n t i s
made i n t h e l a t t e r y e a r s .
To i l l u s t r a t e
th e a b i l i t y
o f c a p i t a l t o a c c u m u la te i n a n o t h e r m anner
y i e l d s e r i e s s i x w as r e v e r s e d i n o r d e r .
The y i e l d e x p e r i e n c e r e c o r d e d
f o r t h e l a s t y e a r o f d a t a w as. assum ed t o b e t h e f i r s t y e a r o f e x p e r i e n c e .
The y e a r l y s u r p l u s , t h e y e a r l y s u r p l u s f o r i n v e s t m e n t , a n d t h e accu-^
m u l a t i v e v a l u e o f . t h i s s u r p l u s when i n v e s t e d a t a 6 p e r c e n t r a t e o f
i n t e r e s t when t h i s s e r i e s i s r e v e r s e d i s p r e s e n t e d on p a g e 6.0 a s T a b le X I I .
— 60 —
TABLE X II..
"
Y ear
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
YEARLY SURPLUS, YEARLY SURPLUS FOR INVESTMENT, AND THE CUMULATIVE VALUE QF THIS SURPLUS WHEN INVESTED AT A 6 PERCENT
RA-TE OF INTEREST, YIELD SERIES SIX REVERSED, WINTER WHEAT
AREA. '
Y e a r ly
S u rn lu s
S u r p lu s f o r
I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
D o l.
P o l.
10,534
1 1 ,8 4 2
1 0 ,5 3 4
2 3 ,0 0 8
5,43P
907
12,049
3., 757
1,516
3,690
29,818
32,514
46,514
53,062
5.7,762
1 4 ,6 0 1
15,909
9,497
4,974
1 6 ,1 1 6
.
7,824
. 5,583
. 7,757
2,929
6,970
1 0 ,7 4 3
3,675
2 ,6 0 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
5,691
6,480
1 0 ,5 0 6
4,607
0
616
4,60?
'0
0
1 ,7 6 5
6 ,6 7 6
0 .
0 -
4,165
V a lu e o f
I n v e s tm e n t
6 4 ,9 1 8 ■
6 8 ,8 1 3
7 4 ,7 0 7
85,865
9 1 ,0 1 7
96,478
1 0 6 ,4 3 2
1 ,6 2 4
114,442
2 ,4 1 3
1 2 3 ,7 2 2
6,439
540
137,584
146,379
155,162
•
0 0 ■
0 0
. 1 6 4 ,4 7 2
1 7 4 ,3 4 0
1 8 4 ,8 0 0
The v a lu e o f t h e in v e s t m e n t u n d e r t h e i d e n t i c a l a s s u m p tio n s , when
t h e y i e l d s e r i e s w as a s e x p e r i e n c e d , a t t h e e n d o f t h e 2 2 f-y e a r p e r i o d w as
$ 8 2 ,8 1 1 ( T a b le IV , y i e l d s e r i e s s i x , f u l l v a l u e ) .
The o r d e r o f t h e
y i e l d e x p e r i e n c e , o r t h e tim e when t h e i n v e s t m e n t s w e re m ad e, r e s u l t e d
i h a n i n c r e a s e d v a l u e o f $ 1 0 1 ,9 8 9 o v e r t h e 2 2 - y e a r p e r i o d w hen t h i s y i e l d
s e r i e s w as r e v e r s e d .
T h is s h o u ld am ply i l l u s t r a t e t h e a d v a n ta g e o f
r e s e r v e s u s e d t o a c c u m u la te c a p i t a l .
CHAPTER V
SUEMARZ AND CONCLUSIONS.
Siiinmary
R i s k s and u n c e r t a i n t i e s a r i s i n g fro m v a r i a b l e o u t p u t a r e b a s i c t o
t h i s s tu d y 6
E r r a t i c p r o d u c tio n , a s e x p e rie n c e d i n d ry la n d a re a s o f th e
G r e a t P l a in s , b r i n g s f o r t h e x tre m e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e f a r m e r ’ s in c o m e .
is
It
assum ed t h a t t h e g o a l s o f t h e fa rm u n i t ( f i r m and h o u s e h o ld ) a r e
s u r v i v a l o f t h e u n i t o v e r tim e and t h e n c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n .
The
h y p o t h e s e s o f t h e s tu d y a r e t h a t t h e fa r m u n i t o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n t h e s e
c o n d i t i o n s c a n u s e f i n a n c i a l and p h y s i c a l r e s e r v e s i n t h e e f f o r t s t o
a t t a i n th e s e g o a ls .
S p e c i f i c a l l y , r e s e r v e s w i l l h a s te n th e a tta in m e n t
o f t h e g o a l s and f o r e a c h fa r m u n i t t h e r e w i l l bp an optim um r e s e r v e u s e
p a tte rn fo r goal r e a liz a tio n .
Y i e l d d a t a s p e c i f i c t o i d e n t i f i a b l e t r a c t s o f l a n d w e re l o c a t e d .
A l l u s a b l e s e r i e s f o r t h e J u d i t h B a s in and R o o s e v e lt a n d S h e r id a n c o u n t i e s
w e re s e l e c t e d p r o v i d i n g 37 s e r i e s f o r t h e f o r m e r and 30 f o r t h e n o r t h e a s t
c o u n tie s .
From t h e s e s e r i e s , y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y a s e x p e r i e n c e d b y t h e
i n d i v i d u a l w as d e s c r i b e d .
D i f f e r e n c e s i n y i e l d , an d t h e v a r i a b i l i t y
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s w e re d e s c r i b e d f o r th e . tw o w h e a tp ro d u c in g a r e a s .
In th e n o r th e a s t a re a th e c o e f f ic ie n t o f v a r ia tio n f o r
i n d i v i d u a l y i e l d s e r i e s r a n g e d fro m 3 6 .0 t o 6 6 .1 p e r c e n t , i n t h e J u d i t h
B a s i n fro m 2 3 .3 t o 6 0 .4 p e r c e n t .
The n e t c a s h in co m e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r s h o r t r u n s u r v i v a l when y i e l d s
w e re b e lo w t h e b r e a k e v e n p o i n t w e re c a l c u l a t e d .
The l i q u i d r e s e r v e
re q u ire m e n ts f o r s h o r t ru n s u r v iv a l o f th e farm u n i t a t f o u r s e le c te d
- 62 y i e l d , l e v e l s a t and b e lo w t h e b r e a k e v e n p o i n t i n e a c h a r e a w e re
d e te r m i n e d .
E v e ry p o s s i b l e t h r e e - y e a r c o m b in a tio n o f t h e s e f o u r y i e l d
l e v e l s w e re t e s t e d t o d e m o n s tr a te t o t a l s h o r t r u n s u r v i v a l r e q u i r e m e n t s .
I n b o t h a r e a s t h e maximum Was a l i t t l e
o v e r $ 2 0 ,0 0 0 .' F o r e a c h y i e l d
s e r i e s , t h e l i q u i d r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t s a t any one tim e f o r s h o r t r u n
s u r v i v a l w e re c a l c u l a t e d .
T hese r e q u i r e m e n t s r a n g e d fro m $ 4 7 2 t o $ 3 5 ,5 5 0
i n t h e n o r t h e a s t a r e a ; fro m $0 t o $ 4 1 ,0 6 1 i n t h e o t h e r a r e a .
I n e a c h a r e a t h r e e y i e l d s e r i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g h i g h , m edium , and low
m ean y i e l d l e v e l s w e re s e l e c t e d .
The y e a r l y s u r p l u s n e t c a s h incom e
a v a i l a b l e f o r lo n g r u n s u r v i v a l an d c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n f o r e a c h s e r i e s
w as d e te r m i n e d .
W h ile i n a l l c a s e s t h e r e w o u ld b e s u r p l u s a b o v e s h o r t
r u n s u r v i v a l r e q u i r e m e n t s , i n t h e l o n g r u n t h e s e r i e s w i t h t h e lo w e s t
m ean y i e l d l e v e l i n e a c h a r e a c o u ld n o t s u r v i v e .
F o r t h e r e m a in in g f o u r y i e l d s e r i e s , t h e s u r p l u s n e t c a s h incom e
f o r c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n w as i s o l a t e d .
T h is s u r p l u s w as assum ed t o b e
h e l d a s a l i q u i d r e s e r v e { z e ro r a t e o f i n t e r e s t )
o f i n t e r e s t r a n g i n g fro m 3 t o 6 p e r c e n t .
and i n v e s t e d a t r a t e s
W henever a s u r p l u s c a n b e
i n v e s t e d e a r l y i n a tim e s e r i e s , a r e s e r v e b u i l d s up t h a t c a n p r o t e c t
t h e f a r m u n i t a g a i n s t any n o rm a l dem ands on incom e t h a t a r i s e i n t h e s e
s e rie s .
When low y i e l d s a r e e x p e r i e n c e d a t t h e b e g in n i n g o f a m anage­
m ent tim e p e r i o d i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o p r o v i d e p r o t e c t i o n t h r o u g h t h e u s e
o f r e s e r v e s b u t tw o h i g h , o r e v e n one e x tr e m e l y 'h i g h , y i e l d y e a r s a t t h e
b e g in n i n g o f. t h e p e r i o d c a n a s s u r e s h o r t r u n s u r v i v a l u n d e r a lm o s t any
c i r c u m s t a n c e s and p r o v i d e a d e q u a te c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n .
- 63 C o n c lu s io n s
As i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n in g r e s e r v e s and. t h e i r u s e s w as d e v e lo p e d ,
i t becam e a p p a r e n t t h a t r e s e r v e s , a s d e f i n e d , w o u ld b e u s e d f o r two
d i s t i n c t p u rp o se s.
L i q u id r e s e r v e s c a n h a v e a s t h e i r o n ly r e a s o n a b l e
p u rp o se th e in s u r in g o f s u r v iv a l i n th e s h o r t ru n .
R e s e r v e s o f a some­
w h a t l e s s l i q u i d fo rm h a v e a s t h e i r m a jo r p u r p o s e t h e a c c u m u la tio n o f
c a p ita l.
They a r e a l s o c a p a b l e o f i n s u r i n g o r p a r t i a l l y i n s u r i n g lo n g
ru n s u r v i v a l o f th e farm u n i t , and f i n a l l y , c an s e rv e as a b a s i s f o r
c r e d i t needed i n th e s h o rt ru n i n p la c e o f l i q u i d r e s e r v e s .
A f a r m u n i t o f a d e q u a te s i z e c a n u s e r e s e r v e s t o a l l e v i a t e t h e
p r o b le m s o f m an ag em en t, c a p i t a l ,
a t t a i n t h e i r g o a ls .
and in co m e i n t h e e f f o r t s o f f a r m e r s t o
I n f o r m a t i o n d e v e lo p e d th r o u g h o u t t h e s tu d y s u p p o r t s
t h i s h y p o t h e s i s , w i t h i n t h e s c o p e o f t h e s tu d y .
I t becam e a p p a r e n t when
in v e s t m e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s w e re c a l c u l a t e d t h a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l , o r fa rm u n i t ,
who i n t e l l i g e n t l y m an ag es r e s e r v e s c o u ld e x p e c t t o a t t a i n econom ic
s u c c e s s b e f o r e one who d o e s n o t u s e r e s e r v e s .
When v a r i o u s y i e l d s e r i e s
w e re a n a ly z e d t o d e te r m in e s h o r t r u n s u r v i v a l , , i t w as fo u n d t h a t t h e r e
is
an optim um r e s e r v e u s e p a t t e r n s p e c i f i c t o e a c h s e r i e s .
T hese
r e s u l t s te n d to v e r i f y th e s p e c i f ic h y p o th e s e s .
Im p lic a tio n s
The y i e l d s e r i e s t h a t w e re a v a i l a b l e b e g a n i n t h e l a t e 1 9 3 0 's and
y i e l d s w e re low i n t h e f i r s t few y e a r s .
T h is o n ly e m p h a s iz e d t h e
h a z a r d s o f a f a r m b u s i n e s s a t t e m p t i n g t o becom e e s t a b l i s h e d .
D u rin g
t h e e a r l y y e a r s t h e f i r m i s n o r m a lly i n a v u l n e r a b l e p o s i t i o n , m a in ly
- 64 ~
because o f c a p ita l lim ita tio n s .
I t a p p e a rs th e n t h a t m ea su res to in s u r e
s t a b l e in co m e a r e o f g r e a t e s t im p o r ta n c e a t t h i s tim e — h a i l ,
r is k - , o r d th 6 r" i n s u r a n c e c o h ld b e c r i t i c a l :
a ll­
„W henever t t e c a p i t a l
p o s i t i o n i s im p ro v e d t o t h e p o i n t w h ere t h e r e i s a s i g n i f i c a n t s u r p l u s
t h a t c a n b e i n v e s t e d t h e n t h e in v e s t m e n t c a n p r o v id e t h e n e c e s s a r y
f i n a n c i a l s u p p o rt.
Of c o u r s e , any s u r p l u s t h a t i s a l r e a d y c o m m itte d
i n t h e fo rm o f i n d e b t e d n e s s w i l l d e l a y t h e a c c u m u la tio n o f a r e s e r v e „
The im p o r ta n c e o f t h e f i r s t few y e a r s i n a m anagem ent s e r i e s i s
a ls o a p p a re n t.
I f t h e y b r i n g low y i e l d s
t h e m anagem ent p ro b le m i s
d i f f i c u l t and th e f i n a n c i a l c o n d itio n h a z a rd o u s .
I f th e y happen to be
f a v o r a b l e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o e s t a b l i s h a r e s e r v e i s a t h a n d , and once
e s t a b l i s h e d a t a l e v e l a p p r o p r i a t e t o t h e fa r m u n i t , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f
s u r v i v a l and c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n :i s h i g h .
In e ith e r c a s e , th e use o f
in co m e t o e s t a b l i s h r e s e r v e s a t an e a r l y .d a te s h o u ld h a v e h i g h p r i o r i t y
i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h d e s i r e s t o i n c r e a s e l e v e l o f l i v i n g an d o t h e r
a lte rn a tiv e s .
M anagem ent o f r e s e r v e s , c a n n o t b e s e p a r a t e d fro m c r e d i t , e x c e p t i n
t h e c a s e o f l i q u i d r e s e r v e s h e l d i n l i m i t e d am o u n ts f o r s h o r t r u n
s u r v i v a l=
The m e c h a n ic s o f I n v e s t m e n t s , i n c l u d i n g . s e l e c t i o n , p u r c h a s e ,
and s a l e o f i n s t r u m e n t s o r t i t l e s , p ay m en t o f d i v id e n d s a n d e a r n i n g s ,
a n d so o n , s u g g e s t t h a t c o n t r o l o f in co m e t o t h e fa rm u n i t c a n b e
m anaged m o st e f f e c t i v e l y t h r o u g h c r e d i t b a s e d on t h e r e s e r v e r a t h e r t h a n
b y c o n t i n u a l l y c o n v e r t i n g when n e e d e d an d r e i n v e s t i n g when t h e s u r p l u s
a g a i n b eco m es a v a i l a b l e .
- 65 ~
I m p l i c a t i o n s a r e d i f f i c u l t t o d e v e lo p w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e v a r i e t i e s
o f fa r m s i z e s a n d t e n u r e s y s te m s and y i e l d l e v e l s t h a t w e re n o t e x p lo r e d .
The s i z e u s e d a s t h e e x am p le i n t h i s s t u d y w as s e l e c t e d b e c a u s e i t was
e x p e c t e d t o h a y e i n h e r e n t s u r v i v a l c a p a b i l i t i e s , a t l e a s t w i t h mean
a v e ra g e y i e l d s .
A p r i o r i s m a l l e r f a r m s w o u ld b e e x p e c te d t o h a v e d i f f i ­
c u l t y e x c e p t w i t h v e r y h i g h y i e l d s , a p d l a r g e r fa r m s s h o u ld b e a b le t o
p r o v i d e f o r t h e f a r m e r s * g o a l s w i t h som ew hat lo w e r m ean y i e l d s .
The p o s s i b i l i t y o f s u r v i v a l and c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n i n r e l a t i o n t o
th e y ie ld v a r i a b i l i t y
and m ean y i e l d l e v e l o f a g iv e n f a r m h a s i m p o r ta n t
i m p l i c a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e v a lu e o f t h e fa rm an d t h e fo rm o f
t e n u r e u n d e r w h ic h t h e f a r m i s . o p e r a t e d .
s tra te
I t may b e p o s s i b l e t o demon­
a g i v e n c a p i t a l i z e d v a l u e w h ic h , u n d e r some a d v e r s e v a l u e s o f
s iz e , v a r ia b ility ,
o r p r o d u c t i v i t y w o u ld e v e n b e n e g a t i v e .
The same
l a n d u s e d a s an in c r e m e n t (ow ned o r r e n t e d ) t o a n o th e r f a r m may h av e
a h ig h v a lu e .
F u tu re R e se a rc h
F a r m e r s r e a l i z e t h a t i t i s m ore d i f f i c u l t t o b r e a k new g ro u n d t h a n
t o s p e n d tim e w o rk in g w i t h s m o o th e r, p r e v i o u s l y - b r o k e n g ro u n d ; h o w e v e r,
t h e w ork a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b r e a k .n e w g ro u n d t e n d s t o b e a m ore s a t i s f y i n g
a s w e l l a s a m ore p r o d u c t i v e l a b o r .
T h is a n a lo g y a p p l i e s t o t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t .
I n t h e g ro u n d ­
b r e a k i n g p r o c e s s t h e t o o l s a v a i l a b l e w e re i n a d e q u a te i n m any r e s p e c t s ,
a n d a s s u m p tio n s w e re r e q u i r e d t h a t l i m i t e d t h e s tu d y i n s c o p e .
H ow ever,
t h e . f i n d i n g s a n d m e th o d o lo g y o p e n t h e d o o r t o f u t u r e r e s e a r c h i n t h i s
— 66 —
and r e l a t e d a r e a s .
T h e re i s a d e f i n i t e n e e d f o r e x te n d e d e m p i r i c a l
r e s e a r c h t o t e s t m ore c o m p l e te l y h y p o th e s e s o f t h i s s tu d y and e x te n d t h e
a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f t h e r e s u l t s t o t h e g r e a t v a r i e t y o f f a r m in g
s itu a tio n s
w h e re p r o d u c t i o n i s u n c e r t a i n .
The l i m i t a t i o n s w e re m any.
The s e l e c t e d a r e a s r e p r e s e n t a m in o r
p o r t i o n o f t h e w h e a t- p r o d u c in g a r e a s i n t h e S t a t e o f M o n tan a.
The y i e l d
d a t a fro m w i t h i n t h e s e a r e a s w e re fro m o n ly one s p u r o e , an d t h e r e i s
some p o s s i b i l i t y o f b i a s a r i s i n g fro m r e p o r t i n g p r o c e d u r e a n d l a n d
s e l e c t i o n an d l i e u l a n d s .
A fa rm u n i t o f o n ly one s i z e w as c o n s id e r e d
a n d som ew hat r e s t r i c t i n g a s s u m p tio n s w e re i n t r o d u c e d c o n c e r n in g t h e f i r m
a n d t h e h o u s e h o ld t h a t t h e u n i t c o m p r is e s .
The f i n d i n g s and m e th o d o lo g y o f t h i s s tu d y c o u ld e f f e c t i v e l y b e
a p p l i e d t o r e s e a r c h i n { l ) t h e e c o n o m ic s o f i n s u r a n c e a s a m eans o f
S h i f t i n g r i s k f o r d ry la n d g r a in fa rm e rs ,
o f te n u re ;
(2 ) r u r a l a p p r a is a l;
( 3 ) fo rm s
( 4 ) econom ic s i z e o f f a r m u n i t s o p e r a t i n g u n d e r d r y la n d
c o n d i t i o n s , an d (5 ) d e t a i l e d s tu d y o f f i n a n c i a l m anagem ent f o r fa r m s o f
d i f f e r e n t s i z e s , y i e l d l e v e l s , f i n a n c i a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o v e r t i m e , and
a l t e r n a t i v e u s e s o f in c o m e .
■ APPENDICES
TABLE I , APPENDIX A .
Y ear
I
Eu.
WHEAT.YIELDS PER SEEDED ACRE BY YEARS AND AVERAGE WHEAT Y IE L D S, STATE-OWNED
CROPIAND, SHERIDAN AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES, MONTANA..
2
Eu.
3
Eu.
4
E u.
5
• Eu.
Y ie ld S e r i e s
6
7
Eu.
Eu.
8
Eu.
10
Eu.
9
Eu.
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
7 .8
1 8 .2
1 9 .4
2 0 .0
1 5 .7
1 2 .3
6.9
6.2
5 .3
8 .7
8 .4
1 1 .8
9.9
6.9
1 9 .1
2 4 .1
8 .7
1 9 .4
1 8 .9
1 2 .8
2 7 .4
1 4 .0
1 4 .9
2 5 .3
2 0 .8
1 4 .5
1 3 .8
8 .0
6 .7
1 0 .4
3 .8
1 9 .6
9 .0
1 4 .3
1 3 .9
5 .5
1 6 .7
8 .4
1 3 .8
1 2 .8
111
71
7.6
1 8 .3
1 2 .8
2 0 .8
8 .2
1 3 .9
1 1 .0
1 3 .3
1 3 .3
3 1 .2
1 6 .5
1 9 .0
9.6
1955
1956
1 5 .1
2 6 .2
1 5 .7
1 7 .2
2 1 .4
1 3 .9
2 2 .3
1 1 .3
A vg. Y ie ld
1 7 .5
1 3 .7
A vg. S eed ed
W heat A c re a g e
113
39
1954
27.9
4 .5
8 .4
1 1 .8
1 0 .1
14.'3
2 0 .0
1 4 .0
5 .1
-
6.5
1 0 .3
1 7 .9
1 5 .1 ,
1 .2
4 .6
1 2 .8
6.9
3.3
1 1 .4
4 .6
1 4 .1
1 0 .4
7.9
24.6
— —
1 6 .5
1 1 .2
1 9 .7
0
2 0 .0
6 .2
8.4
2 .7
1 5 .7
9 .4
1 9 .7
2 2 .3
2 2 .4
2 3 .3
2 1 .8
7 .1
1 9 .0
1 4 .8
22.7
25.8
1 4 .4
9 .3
6 .2
7 .8
1 6 .8
1 0 .2
4 .3
2 1 .6
2 .5 ,
1 5 .6
2 9 .4
1 3 .0
1 8 .2
8 .3
2 3 .1
1 3 .1
1 8 .1
1 5 .5
.1 7 .8
1 3 .0
2 7 .5
0
1 0 .5
2 5 .1
1 8 .1
2 5 .0
1 0 .4
— —
1 0 .4
14.4
9.3
1 1 .9
3 .2
1 3 .6
8 .0
1 2 .4
1 1 .9
5 .0
1 4 .9
4 .9
2 0 .1
7 .1
1 1 .3
1 5 .1
1 0 .7
2 3 .1
7 .8
6.9
5.2
— —
.
1 6 .3
1 8 .4
2 6 .5
1 8 .4
7 .0
1 1 .5
1 6 .0
9.6
7 .7 •
2 4 .3
1 0 .0
6.1
19.6
9.8
12.6
6 .3
9.7
1 1 .9
1 1 .8
1 3 .4
1 7 .1
1 3 .8
47
127
39
42
112
177
TABLE I , APPENDIX A .
11
B u..
Y ear
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
( C o n t i n u e d ) . WHEAT YIELDS PER SEED ACRE BY YEARS AND AVERAGE WHEAT Y IE L D S,
STATE-OWNED CROPLAND, SHERIDAN AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES, MONTANA.
12
Eu.
13
Bu. -
-14
E u.
15
Eu. ■
Y ie ld S e r ie s
17
16
Bu..
• Eu,
18
Eu.
19
Eu.
20
Eu.
3 .5
O
——
.
8 .5
5 .0
2 2 .3
1 2 .9
6 .0
1 7 .2 .
O
6 .9
9 .5
3 .0
3 .1
7 .9
1 4 .7
1 8 .7
1 6 .2
9 .8
4 .2
6 .5
1 0 .1
1 1 .8
1 .3
1 9 ,0
1 3 .9
1 4 .0
2 4 .0
O
2 6 .1
9 .2
3 .0
5 .5
5 .6
7 .8
1 0 .7
8 .5
1 8 .7 ' 1 9 .5
2 2 .2
1 7 .8
1 0 .7
2 .5
2 1 .7
2 4 .2
1 5 .0
1 1 .1
1 1 .6
1 0 .3
1 0 .1
1 0 .6
6 .8
1 2 .9
4 .1
O
1 3 .7
1 9 .3
1 1 .5
7 .1
7 .0
7 .0
1 8 .7
1 5 .9
1 6 .0
7 .9
2 2 .0 .
2 1 .3
9 .4
. 7 .3
1 9 .6
1 3 .8
2 4 .6 ,
1 8 .1
1 1 .3
1 1 .3
1 4 .0
1 1 .2
1 6 .5
O
1 8 .8
1 2 .3
9 .7
2 5 .7
1 0 .4
1 8 .2
1 0 .9
1 1 .1
1 1 .2
1 1 .4
1 1 .5
61
123
59
46
8 .0
1 7 .1
1 1 .7
1 1 .8 '
1 9 .8
1 4 .4
9 .1
8 .7
——
._
A vg. Y ie ld
A vg. S e e d e d
W heat A c re a g e
4 .a
6 .2
1 0 .4
19.5,
2 3 .8
2 0 .1
1 9 .8
1 2 .9
. 9 .6
1 2 .7
5 .4
4 .1
1 9 .4
1 3 .5
8 .6
2 7 .1
8 .1
2 5 .6
1 5 .1
5 .3
6 .5
1 0 .5
1 4 .8
1 9 .1
1 1 .7
2 1 .7
1 4 .7
1 6 .1
1 1 .0
7 .0
6 .0
1 1 .5
7 .7
8 .1
1 1 .6
9 ,9
1 1 .6
7 .2
8 .7
1 6 .3
1 .4
1 9 .8
2 2 .3
1 5 .2
1 4 .3 1 4 .6
8 .4
4 .3
1 8 .9
1 2 .0
6 .3
2 0 .6
1 2 .8
1 7 .6
6 .5
1 3 .9
1 4 .0
1 1 .2
1 2 .4
1 5 .1
1 7 .3
100
146
125
124
104
112
3 .4
—
3 .3
——
- 7 .8
2 4 .6
1 0 .7
2 5 .9
19.61 4 .2
1 1 .3
1 3 .9
8 .2
2 .4
1 5 .5
9 .5
1 4 .4
2 6 .4
1 3 .1
2 8 .0
1 1 .8
4 .4
1 5 .4
. 8 .3
1 5 .1
2 0 .9
2 5 .7
1 7 .3
2 8 .1
1 7 .6
1 7 .3 .
1 5 .6
5 .4
2 9 .0
2 5 .7
7 .9
2 6 .1
1 3 .2
1 7 .5 1 7 .5
TABLE I , APPENDIX A 6-
( C o n t i n u e d ) . WHEAT YIELDS PER SEEDED ACRE BY YEARS AND AVERAGE WHEAT Y IELD S,
STATE-OWNED CROPLAND, SHERIDAN AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES, MONTANA.
Y ie ld S e r i e s
Y ear
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
21 •
Bu.
8 .0
1 4 .1
——
1 6 .6
1 7 .8
2 2 .8
2 6 .1
2 1 .8
1 5 .2
1 8 .8
1 4 .2
1 5 .1
2 0 .6
9 .8
4 .8
1 2 .9
0
1 5 .2
22
Eu.
6 .8
1 3 .6
1 6 .2
1 6 .4
1 8 .5
1 8 .9
1 8 .0
15.9
1 6 .8
1 5 .1
6 .3
6.5
23
Eu.
6 .3
1 0 .4
5 .0
1 1 .5
- 1 0 .3
. 5 .1
5.7
4 .0
3 .7
1 .3
7 .0
4 .0
1 .5
1 0 .3
8 .3
24
Eu.
25
Eu.
. 4 .7
1 0 .8
1 6 .2
0
2 4 .2
5 .8
2 0 .2
3 0 .3
1 9 .1
2 3 .9
1 7 .9 ■ 13.-7
1 2 .8 '
1 6 .1
0. .
1 3 .7 1 0 .8
1 4 .2
1 0 .7
16.4
0
7 .9
1 3 .6
2 5 .3
8 .2
14.6
4 .0
5.3
2 0 .1
1 3 .1
1 0 .6
9.1
2 0 .0
2 1 .7
4 .1
1 3 .7
26
27
Eu.
Eu.
9 .5
1 5 .3
4 .8
9 .8
7 .4
—
19.9
1 8 .8
2 3 .1
2 8 .1
1 4 .7
2 1 .3
2 5 .9
1 7 .4
1 6 .3
1 5 .0
1 6 .0
1 8 .4
9 .1
2 5 .1
5.9
1 7 .2
2 2 .5
7 .5
2 3 .6
1 0 .7
'
28
Eu.
29
Eu.
30
Eu.
6 .5
1 3 .3
1 0 .7
1 1 .3
6 .9
9 .2
2 .1
7 .2
7 .1
1 1 .2
1 3 .6
8 .2
5 .1
9 .6
1 2 .3
7 .2
1 3 .4
1 1 .0
1 6 .0
2 8 .0
1 9 .8
2 5 .5
1 3 .0
9 .1
2 5 .9
9 .3
1 9 .3
1 1 .3
1 8 .7
2 3 .7
8 .6
1 5 .0
.8
1 3 .2
1 7 .7
8 .6
2 1 .4
8 .6
2 .4
2 2 .2
7 .1
1 8 .3
«—
——
2 6 .5
1 0 .2
9 .1
1 9 .3
7 .3
2 2 .8
1 3 .4
A vg. Y ie ld
1 4 .9
1 4 .6
6 .2
1 4 .4 -
1 1 .7
1 5 .1
1 5 .7
8 .5
1 4 .5
1 3 .2
A vg. S e e d e d
W heat A c re a g e
169
169
64
146
118
87
157
96
293
37
1954
1955
1956 .
7.2
4 .2
12.2
5.9
1 6 .0
7 .5
2 1 .1
7 .0
7 .3
2 0 .6
1 2 .0
2 7 .2
1 2 .0
4 .1
1 2 .1
1 1 .1
1 1 .5
.7
8.9
TABLE I I , APPENDIX A .
WHEAT YIELDS PER SEEDED ACRE AND AVERAGE WHEAT Y IE L D S, STATE-OWNED. CROP• LAND, JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES, MONTANA.
Y ie ld S e r i e s
Y ear
I
2
3
4
Bu.
Bu.
Eu.
Bu.
1932
1933
1934
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
5
6
7
8
9
Eu.
Eu.
Eu.
Eu.
Eu.
8.0
5.2
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
'
——
4 .6
2.4
14.3
9.9
14.8
9.3
29.2
1 1 .1
1 4 .6
5.0
24.6
10.0
8.0
20.0
18.7
18.6
8.7
. 9.1
19.5
2 2 .6
1 7 .9
1 7 .6
3 0 .5
1 9 .9
1 8 .6
2 0 .0
2 2 .2
3 2 .6
3 3 .3
8.6
25.9
29.4
1 6 .6
1 4 .0
2 4 .8
1 6 .6
1 6 .7
1 5 .1
1 4 .1
1 5 .5
22.5
1 4 .4
O
27.2
23.5
2 7 .1
2 6 .7
7 .4
23.0
16.9
2 7 .7
A vg. Y ie ld
13.4
1 8 .8
Avg. S eeded
W heat A c re ag e
36
54
200
6 .8
15.3
9.2
22.5
/
6 .2
4.0
3.7
1 5 .3
1 3 .1
2 0 .7
1 1 .5
1 1 .3
1 7 .0
1 8 .8
1 6 .2
1 2 .8
1 8 .6
1 8 .1
1 6 .9
1 7 .1
• 2 3 .4
1 3 .3
——
.
4.9
3 .2
17.9
1 1 .4
2 2 .5
2 0 .7
3 1 .0
37.3
21.6
30.3
10.9
17.0
5.9'
1 0 .1
9 .1
26.0
19.2
3 2 .4 .
6 .1
1 1 .2
7 .7
3 1 .7
-
1 0 .8
6 .2
1 1 .9
---
21.5
1 1 .3
—
1 1 .6
2 0 .7
5 1 .5
27.0
13.6
20.4
2 0 .7
1 4 .5
2 8 .0
2 .6
14.0
14.5
27.2
22.0
18.4
22.1
36.9
1 5 .8
1 6 .8
2 9 .1
1 7 .6
——
24.9
41.8
12.5
3 3 .5
2 1 .5
23.7
2 2 .5
■ 1 7 .2
2 1 .6
15.5
1 4 .4
1 6 .8
0
1 6 .3
3 .4 ■
2 1 .3
1 0 .7
2 3 .5
22.7
2 1 .1
3 1 .3
21.5
1 7 .2
21.3
23.0
1 8 .6
3 2 .5
25.0
3 1 .5
3 4 .5
1 2 .7
1 4 .3
2 9 .3
16.2
19.5
17.8
2 0 .0
2 1 .0
69
67
63
47
3 9 .9
12..1
51.9
3 0 .1
21.5
31 .-8
3 3 .7
2 7 .0
3 8 .6
3 7 .6
2 0 .4
1 7 .3
224
19.6
1 6 .0
1 6 .6
1 4 .4
19.5
151
.
TABLE II,-A P P E N D IX A .
Y ear
( C o n t i n u e d ) . WHEAT YIELDS PER SEEDED.ACRE AND AVERAGE:WHEAT Y IE L D S,
STATE-OWNED CROPLAND, JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS CO UNTIES,1 MONTANA.
10
11
12
13
E u.
E u.
Eu.
Eu.
Y ie ld S e r i e s
14
15
E u.
Eu.
Eu.
18
Eu.
0
1932
1933
1934
—
4 .1
4 .9
■ 1 .7
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
8 .0
O
O
1 1 .0
Avg. Y ie ld
1 1 .6
Avg. S eeded
W heat A c re a g e
17
16
E u.
1 1 .1
1 4 ,0
8 .7
2 .5
7 .8
2 0 .8
1 1 .2
1 5 .6
1 5 .3
7 .8
1 2 .9
2 5 .1
1 6 .2
2 0 .4
. 21
1 .7
3 .2
1 3 .6
4 .3
1 6 .6
1 0 .1
2 1 .6
4 .4
4 .3
5 .7
1 2 .1
1 7 .1
1 6 ,4
1 6 .7
9 .1
3 .8
——
6.9
2 .8
1 9 .6
1 3 .1
2.0
9.1
29.6
3 .7
1 6 .4
8.0
1 3 .8
2 3 .3
1 1 .1
8 .8
2 3 .9
1 2 .7
9 .1
2 2 .6
1 5 .2
2 7 .4
1 6 .9
1 4 .7
1 2 .9
2 0 .8
4 .0
7 .3
7 .0
1 2 .5
1 0 .7
1 4 .1
65
33
43
9.6
4 .2
8 .2
6 .4
6 .2
6 .3
2 .0
7 .1
7 .4
71
——
8 .4
4 .8
7 .7
1 2 .1
5 .0
1 2 .6
2 0 .4
1 0 .7
1 6 .0
2 0 .3
17.9
6 .7
4 .1
1 1 .6
5.7
7 .2
1 0 .0
13.4
14.0
1 0 .9
1 4 .7
2.8
2 2 .1
1 0 .7
1 3 .3
2 4 .2
2 5 .7
2 9 .2
1 0 .9
5 .4
3 .7
1 4 .2
2 0 .1
20.4
30.0
3 1 .4
3 3 .9
1 1 .5
7 .8
1 0 .8
2 .6
3 0 .0
1 8 .6
12.2
9.7
1 6 .9
6 .1
27.6
—
.
1 1 .8
1 9 .8
2 8 .2
1 9 .1
1 2 .1
3 5 .6
1 4 .1
2 9 .0
8 .5
—
1 4 .9
3 6 .5
2 3 .6
1 .8
1 1 .6
2 .3
2 3 .1
1 9 .0
1 8 .0
1 2 .5
1 8 .7
2 1 .1
1 7 .4
1 8 .3
1 5 .5
2 0 .9
1 7 .2
78
75
84
—
30.1
9.7
3 2 .3
2 7 .0
1 5 .2
9 .0
7 .1
1 4 .6
15.2
22.6
27.4
22.3
1 4 .0
1 7 .1
1 6 .8
2 5 .1
3 2 .9
1 4 .3
2 4 .5
1 2 .8
1 5 .8
178
3 4 .0
1 4 .6
7 .4
TABLE I I , APPENDIX A .
19
E u.
Y ear
( C o n t i n u e d ) . WHEAT YIELDS PER SEEDED ACRE AND AVERAGE WHEAT Y IE L D S,
STATE-OWNED CROPLAND, JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES,- MONTANA..
20
E u.
1 3 .5
1 1 .5
5 .8
1 1 .5
1 1 .5
21
E u.
22
Eu.
Y ie ld S e r ie s
23
24
Eu.
Eu.
2 0 .6
1 2 .0
7 .9
23.5 ’
3 .6
2 4 .9
25
Eu.
26
E u.
27
Eu.
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
.
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
8 .2
11.0
7 .4
8.8
1 0 .7
1 2 .1
2 1 .6
5.2
1 1 .6
2 9 .8
3.8
7 .1
—
1 2 .6
6.4
1953
1 0 .0
1954
1955
9.4
1956
—
5 .4
Avg. Y i e ld .
10.6
Avg. Seeded
W heat A c re a g e
83
—
9.8
9.7
1 4 .0
5 .1
1 0 .6
1 6 .6
1 5 .2
8.9
13.8
6.0
12.9
24.7
30.5
2 0 .0
1 7 .9
1 4 .9
1 6 .0
6.9
1 6 .2
1 0 .1
1 0 .8
8 .5
7 .8
2 3 .2
1 9 .1
4 1 .7
1 8 .3
1 8 .5
19.9
1 4 .4
8 .6
5.4
27.7
2.7
23.9
6 .4
1 0 .9
5 .6
9 .7
212
1 6 .7
19.7
21.9
12.2
6.2
2 1 .3
21.7
1 1 .5
1 7 .3
20.2
19.3
24.3
2 0 .1
1 6 .6
23,8
-2 5 .4
1 8 .7
.
23.6
.
1 1 .2
1 4 .4
1 2 .0
5 .8
9.5
1 1 .2
1 5 .5
1 0 .4
1 6 .8
1 6 .3
14.5
257
2 1 .6
1 7 .1
1 5 .3
6 .3
6 .8
1 2 .2
1 0 .7
1 1 .8
2 6 .2
6 .2
1 3 .5
1 0 .8
195
6.1
8 .5
3 2 .2
3 2 .1
1 7 .0
146
10.9
29.6
13.3
1 4 .4
2 2 .2
1 7 .8
1 8 .6
1 1 .7
6 .0
0
1 3 .2
1 0 .8
1 7 .9
1 2 .8
1 0 .2
9.3
0
1 6 .5
78
275
—
9 .2
1 7 .0
1 6 .6
8 .7
1 0 .1
1 0 .6
8 .1
0
2 2 .7
—
1 1 .7
123
. 2 2 .3
1 1 .7
1 5 .0
1 2 .0
CO
17.2
I
1 4 .6 -
10.3
4 3 .8
27.3
2 4 .2
1 8 .6
1 5 .0
CO O
1952
14.2
1 0 .8
3 .6
6 .0
8 .4
1 2 .8
2 1 .3
1 8 .9
2 0 .7
7 .2
9 .6
23.1
13.4
1 7 .0
117
TABLE I I 9 APPENDIX A.
( C o n t i n u e d ) . WHEAT YIELDS PER SEEDED ACRE AND AVERAGE WHEAT Y IELD S,
STATE-OWNED CROPLAND, JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES, MONTANA. .
Y ie ld S e r ie s
Y ear
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
E u.
Eu.
.7
8 .3
1 3 .7
8 .5
7 .0
8 .1 ■
15.9
1 8 .8
3.4
7.2
20.6
7 .2
5 .1
1 4 .5
1 7 .9
1 7 .5
2 2 .2
10.8
13.3
2 2 .3
1 6 .4
1 3 .3
2 4 .4
3 6 .6
2 1 .3
1 9 .6
29/0
1 5 .5
1 4 .0
1 9 .5
2 6 .7
18.0
•1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
Avg. Y ie ld
1 9 .7
166
2 8 .1
25.9
2 5 .1
2 2 .1
1 9 .1
1 5 .6
—
1 1 .8
1 6 .1
22.5
22.3
25.7
2 4 .3
10.2
2 5 .3
15.6
10.9
1 5 .5
1 3 .0
29.5
12.8
. 1 4 .8
1 7 .7
13.9
1 8 .0
2 8 .5
• 19.0
. 2 6 .5
1 4 ,1
20.0 *
160
1 5 .3
1 3 .8
11.3
29.1
8 .2
2 6 .0
1 9 .6
1 1 .4
19.0
144
Eu.
E u.
22.9
19.3
1 9 .2
2 0 .2
2 4 .0
1 0 .2
2 2 .8
8 .5
Avg. Seeded
W heat A c re ag e
Eu.
165
3 .6
1 4 .2
1 2 .3
■ 8 .7
2 5 .6
21.0
10.2
23.4
2 8 .0
3 5 .8
1 7 .8
2 3 .8
1 7 .1
1 0 .3
1 6 .8
2 6 .2
2 4 .7
1 6 .1
1 9 .6
1 9 .9
1 9 .6
1 4 .9
=0
6 .4
10.6
1 7 .1
1 4 .0
1 2 .4
1 2 .7
1 0 .3
1 8 .3
1 8 .4
1 7 .7
14.8
2 4 .7
3 3 .0
2 5 .1
2 3 .5
13.3
1 3 .4
114
'
1 3 .0
1 3 .7
—
—
1 1 .7
1 8 .2
1 0 .3
9.5
2 8 .5
2 2 .1
1 3 .2
1 2 .5
2 1 .2
1 7 .0
7 .9
1 4 .2
2 3 .0
2 3 .1
2 8 .6
5 .3
1 3 .6
1 4 .1
2 1 .2
1 6 .8
20.4
2 1 .9
4 .3
4.4
9.9
1 3 .7
2 0 .7
1 7 .7
5 .9
1 6 .0
2 1 .7
1 5 .8 .
1 3 .7
1 3 .1
1 8 .3
3 .3
1 7 .2
1 7 .5
8.5
0
1 8 .6
2 7 .6
2 0 .9
2 3 .4
1 3 .2
1 8 .1
7.6
2 3 .9
9.3
19.8
10.3
21.5
1 5 .1
18.0
20.5
19.2
8.3
19.6
8.2
1 5 .4
1 3 .1
1 3 .2
1 5 .9
1 3 .6
2 1 .8
1 6 .8
1 4 .9
13.2
1 6 .4
68
86
68
90
58
75
TABLE I I I , APPENDIX A 0
Y ear ■
O b s e r v a tio n s
Number
YIELD VARIATION BY YEARS, STA^E-OWNED TRACTS OF
CROPLAND, SHERIDAN AND ROOSEVELT•COUNTIES,
MONTANA.
Mean
'Y ie ld
Bu. ■
S ta n d a r d
D e v i a ti o n
Eu.
C o e ffic ie n t
of
V a ria tio n
P e t.
1938
15
5 .1
1 .7 0
3 3 .3
1939
27
8 .0
3 .6 2
4 5 .2
1940
35
1 1 .0
5 .2 1
4 7 .4
1941
. 36
1 4 .1
5.95
4 2 :2 .
1942
41
1 7 .6
6 .8 1
3 8 .7
1943
38
1 7 .5
6.93
39.6
1944
43
1 7 .4
4 .9 8
28.6
1945
43
12.4
5.25
4 2 .3
1946
41
9.8
4 .6 7
4 7 .6
1947
40
1 2 .4
3 .4 6
2 7 .9
1948
42
1 1 .6
5 .2 3
4 5 .1
1949
44
6.2
4 .3 1
69.5
1950
44
1 9 .6
5 .6 0
28.6
1951
44
1 0 .4
4.26
4 1 .0
1952
42
9 .4
4 .5 8
48.7
1953
44
1 7 .8
6 .1 4
3 4 .5
1954
44
1 0 .0
4.34
4 3 .4
1955
44 .
1 9 .7
5 .7 9
2 9 .4
1956
38
9.6
4 .1 2
4 2 .9
/
-
TABLE IV , APPENDIX A.
76
YIELD- VARIATION BY YEARS, STATE-OWNED TRACTS OF
CROPLAND, JUDITH BASIN'AND FERGUS COUNTIES,
MONTANA.
Mean ^
Y ie ld
B a.
C o e ffic ie n t
of
V a ria tio n
P o t.
S ta n d a r d
D e v i a ti o n
Eu.
Y ear
O b s e rv a tio n s'
Number
1937
15
3.3
1 .7 3
49.1
1938
48
1 5 .0
6.88
- 45.9
1939
45
1 0 .9
5 .1 3
4 7 .1
1940
49
9 .4
5 .5 8
59.4
1941'
57
1 6 .1
7 .8 5
4 8 .8
.1942
56
2 1 .2
10.25
48.3
1943 •
59
16.8 •
8.06
4 8 .0
1944
67
1 5 .7
7 .7 3 .
1945
63
15.2
8.28
5 4 ,5
1946
65
1 3 .2
5.68
43.0
. 63
1 0 .3
5.50
• 53.4
1 9 .0
9.60
5 0 .5
1947
I
_
. 49.2
1948
65
1949
. 63
1 5 .6
7 .2 2
4 6 .3
1950
64
16.3
8 ,1 4
50.0
1951
68
5.62
4 0 .4
1952
66
13.3
6.37 .
4 7 .9
1953
63
15.8
6.94
43.9
1954
67
16.5 ,
.9.99
6 0 .5
1955
66
19.7
8 .0 9
4 1 .1
1956
62
1 1 .9
4.96
41.7 '
'
''.
13.9.
•
'
- 77 TABLE V , A P P E N D IX ,A .
Y ie ld
S e rie s
No.
I
R anqe
•
Tw sp.
S e c tio n
53
54
37
37
37
37
16
16
36
4
36
. 36
36
32
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
54
. 56
27
59
29
29
28
58
58
57
28
28
27
29
30
YIELD VARIATION ON 3 0 STATE-OWNED TRACTS OF CROP; LAND, SHERIDAN AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES, MONTANA.
55
58
52
54
57
51 -
52
35
35
35
53
53
35
56
34
57
58
34
34
55
33
57
58
58
33
33
32
59
32
31
31
■ 31
' 31
30
29
55
57
58
59
56
16
36'
23
36
16
3
16
16
36
36
16
16
16
16
36
36
16
16
36
16
27
16
16
36
10
,
Y e a rs
of
D a ta
15
18
17
16
17
IT .
17
17
17
16
17
19
21
19
18
19
19
18
17
19
17
19
17 19
17
17
19
17
■ 16
15
C o e ffic ie n t
of
V a ria tio n
P e t.
Mean
Y ie ld
Eu.
S ta n d a r d .
D e v ia tio n
E u.
■ 1 7 .5
1 3 .7
1 3 .8
1 2 .8
9 .7
1 1 .9
1 1 .8
1 3 .4
1 7 .1
1 3 .8
1 1 .1
1 1 .2
1 1 .4
1 1 .5
1 3 .9
1 4 .0
1 1 .2
1 2 .4
1 5 .1
1 7 .3
1 4 .9
1 4 .6
6 .3 0
5 .3 9
6 .1 6
5 .7 4
4 4 .6
4 4 .8
5.77
59.5
6 .1 2
6 .6 3
7 .4 9
56.2
55.9
.
6.90
6.19
,5.43
7.26
7.03
5 .7 5
6 .3 2
7.13
4.38
6.20
7 .1 4
7.22
6.40
5.57
6.2
3 .0 1
1 4 .4
1 1 .7
1 5 .1
1 5 .7
8 .5
1 4 .5
1 3 .2
6.76
7.73
6 .7 3
6.43
3 .7 3
6.93
6.89
3 6 .0
39.3
5 1 .4
4 0 .3
4 4 .8
48.9
64.8
6 1 .7
5 0 .0
■45.5
50.9
39.1
• 5 0 .0
4 7 .3
4 1 .7
42.9
3 8 .1
48.5
46.9
6 6 .1
44.6
4 0 .9
43.9
47.8
52.2
V
78 TABLE V I , APPENDIX A .
Yield
Series
No,
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
3435
36
■ 37
Ranae
20
21
"21
13
13
13
15
16
16
18
22
' 9
10
ii
13
13
13
17
10
11
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
14
13
12
13
15
16
15
15
15
16
■
.
T w sd .
22
17
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
> 15
15
14
• . 13
12
12
12
-
YIELD VARIATION ON 3 7 STATE-OWNED TRACTS OF
CROPLAND, JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS'COUNTIES,
MONTANA.
Years
of
Section Data
,
35
19 '
36
22
.20
18
17
20
20
' 17
18
18
17
18
17
20
24
19
18
16
17
. 19
18
19
20
18
. 16
18
16
18
. 18
19
20
20
19
18
14
1#
19,
16
' 21
35
36
36
16
36
36
36
16
35
36
16
14
36
16
28
30
13
4
34
25
19
8
.16
16
31
36
36
36
16
36
5
12
36
Coefficient
of.
Mean Standard
Yield Deviation Variation
Pet.
. Eu. •
• Eu,
1 3 .4
1 8 .8
1 4 .4
29.3
1 6 .2
1 9 .5
1 7 .8
2 0 .0
2 1 .0
1 1 ,6
7 .0
1 2 .5
1 0 .7
1 4 .1
1 5 .8
15.5
2 0 .9
1 7 .2
1 0 .6
9.716.8
1 6 .3
14.5
1 7 .9
1 2 .8
1 1 .7
1 7 .0
19.7
2 0 .0
1 1 .4
1 9 .0 .
1 3 .4
2 1 .8
1 6 .8
14.9
13.2
16.4
7 .0 0
52.2
9.48
5 0 .4
5 .3 4
1 0 .1 5
5 .1 1
■ 7 .3 6
37.1
34.6
9.67
3 1 .5
37.7
5 4 .3
9 .1 0
45.5
9.48
6.69
4 5 .1
5 7 .7
5 5 .1
55 LO
3 .8 6
6.88
4.69
42.8
7 .0 8
9 .5 4
9 .2 2
5 0 .2
6 0 .4
8.66
8.69
• 4 1 .4
5 0 .5
5 8 .3
3 1 .4
6 .1 8
3,05
8 .7 5
6.19
6.44
8.78
5 .8 6
6.24
9.78
7 .0 0
4 .6 7
3 .8 9
7.68 '
5.62
. ' 6.67
59.5
52.1
38.0
4 4 .4
4 9 .0
4 5 .8
5 3 .3
5 7 .5
35.5
23.3
3 4 .1
4 0 .4
4 1 .9
30.6
3 8 .1
6 .4 1
5 .2 7
5 .4 6
35.4
41.4
' ■ 6.57
4 0 .1
7-9 -
TABLE I , APPENDIX B .
iYEARLY EXPENSES FOR A FARM UNIT CONSISTING OF A
FOUR-MEMBER HOUSEHOLD AND A 1 ,6 .4 0 CROP ACRE F IR M ,
BY AREAS, MONTANA.a /
C o s t Ite m
F u e l , o i l , g r e a s e , and r e p a i r s
S eed t r e a t m e n t
Weed s p r a y i n g
F irm c a r e x p e n s e
P ic k u p and t r u c k e x p e n s e
In su ra n c e
T axes
H ir e d l a b o r
B oard and room f o r h i r e d l a b o r
T e le p h o n e , h e a t an d e l e c t r i c i t y
S u p p l ie s and m is c e ll a n e o u s
S p r in g W heat
A re a
D o l.
W in te r W heat
A re a
■ D o l-
1 ,0 3 7 .0 0
7 0 .5 0
1 ,0 2 5 .0 0
2 1 5 .0 0
5 0 2 .5 0
2 0 0 .0 0
3 4 0 .0 0
2 0 0 .OQ
6 0 .0 0
3 0 0 .0 0
4 0 0 .0 0
1 ,0 8 2 .0 0
7 5 .0 0
1 ,0 2 5 .0 0
2 0 0 .0 0
4 8 0 .0 0
2 0 6 .0 0
3 7 7 .0 0
200..00
6 0 .0 0
3 0 0 .0 0
4 0 0 .0 0
F irm f i x e d c o s t s
Food
I n s u r a n c e and m e d ic a l c o s t s
T e le p h o n e , h e a t and e l e c t r i c i t y
H o u s e h o ld c a r e x p e n se
C lo th e s and m is c e ll a n e o u s e x p e n s e
4 ,3 5 0 .0 0
9 0 0 .0 0
3 6 0 .0 0
3 0 0 .0 0
2 1 5 .0 0
6 0 0 .0 0
4 ,4 0 5 .0 0
9 0 0 .0 0
3 6 0 .0 0
3 0 0 .0 0
2 0 0 .0 0
6 0 0 .0 0
H o u se h o ld f i x e d c o s t s
2 ,3 7 5 .0 0
2 ,3 6 0 .0 0
Farm u n i t f i x e d c o s t s .
6 ,7 2 5 .0 0
6 ,7 6 5 .0 0
Firm , f i x e d c o s t s p e r s e e d e d a c r e
H o u se h o ld f i x e d c o s t s p e r s e e d e d a c r e
5 .3 0
2 .9 0
5 .3 7
2 .8 8
Farm u n i t f i x e d c o s t s p e r s e e d e d a c r e
8 .2 0
8 .2 5
T h e se e x p e n s e s a r e c o n s id e r e d f i x e d f o r t h e assum ed fa rm u n i t ; th e y
a r e t h e d o l l a r r e q u i r e m e n ts a s s o c i a t e d w ith a z e r o y i e l d .
80
TABLE T I , APPENDIX B .
''
FARM UNIT NET CASH LOSS OR PROFIT AT VARIOUS YIELD
LEVELS' IN THE SPRING,.WHEAT: AREA. '
-
Farm Unit
■Yield
Bu.iL/
Farm
Yield'
Eu.
0 -2 .1
2 .2
2 .3
2 .4
2 .5
0
.1 .6 5 0
1 .7 2 5
1 .8 0 0
1 .8 7 5
1 .9 5 0
2.6.
2 .7
2 .8
2 .9
3 .0
3 .1
3 .2
3 .3
3 .4
i3.5
3.6
3 .7
3 .8
3 .9
4 .0
4 .1
4 .2
4 .3
4 .4
4 .5
'
4.6
4 .7
4 .8
4.9
5 .0
5 .1
5.2
5.3
5 .4
5 .5
.
'.
1
Farm Unit
Gross
Income
Dolob/
Farm1Unit
'Expense
DoL.J2/
0
■
2.485
2.600
2 .7 1 0 ■
2 .8 2 0
2 .9 4 0
3 .0 5 0
2.025
2 .1 0 0
3 .1 6 0
3 .2 8 0
2 .1 7 5
2 .2 5 0
3 .3 9 0
3 .5 0 0
2 .3 2 5
3 .6 1 5
2 .4 0 0
2 .4 7 5
3 .7 3 0
2.550
3 .8 4 0
3 .9 5 0
2 .6 2 5
4
.0 7 0
2.700
2 .7 7 5
4 .1 8 0
2 .8 5 0
. 4 .2 9 0
2.925
/ 4 .4 0 5
■' 4 .5 2 0
3 .0 0 0
4 .6 3 0
3 .0 7 5
3 .1 5 0
4 .7 4 0
4 .8 6 0
3.225
3 .3 0 0
4 .9 7 0
5 .0 8 0
3.375
3 .4 5 0 .
5 .2 0 0
3 .5 2 5 "
5 .3 1 0
5 .4 2 0
3 .6 0 0
3 .6 7 5 '
5 .5 3 5
3 .7 5 0
'5 .6 5 0
3 .8 2 5
. . 5 .7 6 0
5 .8 7 0
3 .9 0 0
5
.9 9 0
3 .9 7 5
6 .1 0 0
4 .0 5 0
6 .2 1 0
4 .1 2 5
■
■
-
Farm Unit
Loss or
Profit
'Dol.c/
Farm Unit
Loss or
■Profit,
Dol .2/
,8.980
9.01-0
9 .0 3 0
9 .0 6 0
9 .0 8 0
9 .1 0 0
9 .1 2 0
9 .1 4 0
9 .1 6 0
9 .1 8 0
9 .2 0 0
9.220
9 .2 4 0
9 .2 6 0
9.280
9 .3 0 0
9 .3 2 0
9 .3 4 5
" 9 .3 7 0
9 .3 9 0
2 / See footnote at the end of Table.
k / See footnote at the end of Table.
c / See footnote at the end of Table.
- 8 .2 0 0
- 6 .1 6 5
- 6 .0 7 0
- 5 .9 9 0
- 5 .9 0 0
- 5 .8 0 0
- 5 .7 2 0
- 5 .6 3 0
- 5 .5 4 0
- 5 .4 5 0
- 5 .3 6 0
- 5 .2 7 5
- 5 .1 8 0
\- 5 .0 9 0
- 5 .0 1 0
' -4.9-10
- 4 .8 3 0
.
- 4 .7 4 0
- 4 .6 4 5
• - 4 .5 6 0
- 4 .4 7 0
- 4 .3 8 0
- 4 .2 8 0
- 4 .1 9 0
- 4 .1 0 0
-4 ,0 0 0 .
- 3 .9 1 0
- 3 .8 2 0
- 3 .7 2 5
■ - 3 .6 3 0
- - 3 ,5 4 0
- 3 .4 5 0
- 3 .3 5 5
- 3 .2 7 0
- 3 :1 8 0
-6,724
8 .2 0 0
8 .6 5 0
8 .6 7 0
8 .7 0 0
8 .7 2 0
8 .7 4 0
8 .7 7 0
8 .7 9 0
8 .8 2 0
8 .8 4 0
8 .8 6 0 ■
8 .8 9 0
8 .9 1 0
8 .9 3 0
8 .9 6 0
- 5 ,0 5 5
-4,977
- 4 ,9 1 2
- 4 ,8 3 8
- 4 ,7 5 6
- 4 ,6 9 0
- 4 ,6 1 7
-4,543
-4 ,4 6 .9
- 4 ,3 9 5
- 4 ,3 2 5
- 4 ,2 4 8
- 4 ,1 7 2
-4,108
-4 ,0 2 6 .
- 3 ,9 6 1
-3,887
- 3 ,8 0 9
- 3 ,7 3 9
- 3 ,6 6 5
-3,592
- 3 ,5 1 0
-3,436
■
- 3 ,3 6 2
- 3 ,2 8 0
- 3 ,2 0 6
-3,132
- 3 ,0 5 5
-2,977
- 2 ,9 0 3
-2,829
-2,751
- 2 ,6 8 1
- 2 ,6 0 8
'
81 _
TABLE T I , APPENDIX B .
'
( C o n t i n u e d ) . FARM UNIT NET CASH LOSS OR PROFIT
AT VARIOUS 'YIELD LEVELS IN . THE SPRING WHEAT-AREA
Farm Uhit
Gfoss
"Income
Tarm
Yield
Farm Unit
Yield ■
Eu.
B u .! /
■ D o I .! /
. ' '6 .3 2 5
• , 6 :4 4 0
6 .5 5 0
6 .6 6 0
6 .7 8 0
6 .8 9 0
7 .0 0 0
7 .1 2 0
7 .2 3 0
7 .3 4 0
5 .6
4 .2 0 0
5.7.
4.275'
5 .8
4 .3 5 0
4 .4 2 5
4 .5 0 0
4 .5 7 5
4 .6 5 0
5.9
6 .0
6 .1
6 .2
6 .3
6 .4
6 .5
6 .6
' 6 .7
6.8
6.9
7 .0
7 .1 '
7.2
7 .3
7 .4
7 .5
7 .6
7 .7
7 .8
7.9
8.0
8 .1
8 .2
8 .3
8 .4
4 .8 7 5
4 .9 5 0
5 .0 2 5
5 :1 0 0
5 .1 7 5
5 .2 5 0
5 .3 2 5 (
5 .4 0 0
5 .4 7 5
5 .5 5 0
5 .6 2 5
5 .7 0 0
5 .7 7 5
5 .8 5 0
9.625
-9.640
9.655
9.670
9.685
9 .7 0 0
8.360
9.715
9.730
9.745
8 .4 7 0
8 .5 8 5
8.700
9 .7 6 0
9 .7 7 5
9 .7 9 0
a . 810 -
6 .0 0 0
6 .0 7 5
6 .1 5 0
9 .0 4 0
9 .1 5 0 .
6:525
9.595
9 .6 1 0
7 .6 8 0
7 .7 9 0
7 .9 1 0
8 .0 2 0 '
8 .1 3 0
8 .2 5 0
8,920
6 .3 0 0
6 .3 7 5
6 .4 5 0 ' .
9 .4 1 0
9 .4 3 0
9 .4 5 0
9 .4 7 0
9 ,4 9 0
9 .5 1 0
9 .5 3 0
9 .5 5 0
9 .5 6 5
9 .5 8 0
-
7.455
7.570
5.925
6.225
8.5
8.6
8 .7
8 .8
8 .9
4.725
4>800
Farm Unit
Expense
P o l.!/
' •
9.260
9.375
9 .4 9 0
9.600
■ 9 .7 1 0
6 .6 0 0
9.830
9.940
6.675
1 0 ,0 5 0
'
9'. 805
9.820
9.835
9.850
9.865
9 .8 8 0
9.895
9 .9 1 0
9.925
9.940
Farm Unit
Loss or
Profit .
■ D ol.!/
- 3 .0 8 5
Farm Unit
Loss or
Profit.
‘ D ol.!/
■
-2.990
- 2 .9 0 0 - 2 .8 1 0
- 2 .7 1 0
- 2 .6 2 0
- 2 .5 3 0
- 2 .4 3 0
- 2 .3 3 5
- 2 .2 4 0
- 2 .1 4 0
- 2 .0 4 0
- 1 .9 4 5
- 1 .8 5 0 '
-1.745
- 1 .6 5 0
- 1 .5 5 5
- 1 .4 5 0
- 1 .3 5 5
- 1 ,2 6 0
- 1 .1 6 0
- 1 .0 6 0
-9.965
- .870
- .765
-
.6 7 0
.5 7 5
.475
.3 7 5
.2 8 0 '
. 185
- .0 8 0
+ . 015:
- ' + .1 1 0
- 2 ,5 3 0 .
- 2 '4 5 2 '
-2,378
- 2 ,3 0 4
-2,222 ■
- 2 .1 4 8
- 2 ,0 7 5
-1,993
■ - 1 ,9 1 5 •
- 1 ,8 3 7
- 1 ,7 5 5
- 1 ,6 7 3 .
' -1,595
- 1 ,5 1 7
-M 3 1
- 1 ,3 5 3
-1 (2 7 5
-1,189
- 1 ,1 1 1
- 1 ,0 3 3
- 951 '
-
869
—
+
+
791
713
627
549
472
390
308
230
152
66
12
90
l / The fa rm u n i t y i e l d I s t h r e e f o u r t h s o f t h e fa rm y i e l d .
O p e r a to r s in c o m e , e x p e n s e r .a n d ,.lo s s o r p r o f i t a r e i n te r m s o f d o l ­
l a r s p e r seed ed a c re .
O p e r a to r l o s s o r p r o f i t ' i n t h i s colum n i s c a l c u l a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g
t h e o p e r a t o r l o s s o r p r o f i t p e r s e e d e d a c r e by t h e num ber o f s e e d e d
a c re s (8 2 0 ).
82 _
TABLE I I I 9 APPENDIX B .
Farm . .
Y ie ld
,B u 0 - 2 .2
2 .3
2 .4
2 .5
2 .6
2 .7
2 .8
2 .9
3 .0
3 .1
3 .2
3 .3
3 .4
3 .5
Farm U n i t
Y ield "
B u -I/"
3 .0 6 .
3 .1 6
2.27
3.26.
2 .3 3
2.40
3 .7
3 .8
3 .9
4 .0
4 .1
4 .2
4 .3
4 .4 4 .5
2 .4 7
2.53
2.60
2 .6 7
2 .7 3
2.77
-
8.84
-5.97
- 5 .9 0
- 5 .8 3
- 5 .7 6
- 5 .6 8
3 .3 4
3.44
3.54
3.63 '
3 .7 3
3 .8 3
3 .9 2
4 .0 2
4.40
4.49
4.59
4.69
4.9
3.27
3.33
4 .7 8
3.47
3.53
4.88
4.98
5.06
3 .6 0
5 .1 7
3 .4 0
■
Farm U n it
L oss o r
P ro fit.
D o l .c /
-6,765
-5,314
- 5 ,2 4 8
- 5 ,1 9 1
- 5 ,1 4 1
- 5 ,0 7 6
- 4 ,8 9 5
- 4 ,8 3 8
- 4 ,7 8 1
-4,723
- 4 ,6 5 8
-5.62
--5.55
-4,608
9 .0 1
- 5 .4 7
- 5 .4 0
-4,485
-4,428
-4,371
-4,305
9.03
9.06
9.08
9.10
9.13
9.15
9.17
9.19
9.21
9.23
9.25
9.27
9.29
. 9.31
9.33
9.35
9.37
b / S ee f o o t n o t e a t t h e end of, T a b l e .
s e e f o o t n o t e a t t h e end o f T a b l e .
-5.33
-5.25
-5.18■ -5.-11 '
-5.03
-4.97
-4.89
-4.81
- 4 .7 4
- 4 .6 6
- 4 ,5 5 1
- 4 ,2 4 8
-4,190
-4,125
- 4 ,0 7 5
- 4 ,0 1 0
-3,944
-3,887
-3,821
-4.58
- 3 ,7 5 6
- 4 .5 1
-3,698
-3,633
-4.43
- 4 .3 5
- 4 .2 9
- 4 .2 0
,
-5,018 •
-4,961
8.96
8.99
Sl/ S ee f o o t n o t e a t t h e end o f T a b l e .
V
■ - 8 .2 5
- 6 .4 8
- 6 .4 0
- 6 .3 3
- 6 .2 7
- 6 .1 9
- 6 .1 2
- 6 .0 5
8 .8 7
8 .8 9
8 .9 2
- 8 .9 4
4 .2 0
4 .3 0
3.07
8 .2 5
8 .6 8
8 .7 0 8 .7 3
8 .7 5
8 .7 7
8 .8 0 8 .8 2
F a rn r U n it
L oss o r
P ro fit.
D o l .b /
2.97
2 .9 3
3 .0 0
3 .1 3
3 .2 0
Farm U n it
E xoenae
B o l .b /
2 .8 7
4.12
4.6
5 .3
5 .4
0
2 .2 0
2 .3 0
2 .4 0
2 .4 8
2 .5 8
2 .6 8
2.80
2.87
4 .7
4 .8
5.1
5.2
Farm U n it
G ro s s
Income.
D o l .c /
0
1 .5 3
1 .6 0
1 .6 7
1 .7 3
1 .8 0
1 .8 7
1 .9 3
2 .0 0
2 .0 7
2 .1 3
2 .2 0
3.6
5 .0
FARM UNIT NET CASH LOSS OR PROFIT AT VARIOUS
. -YIELD LEVELS' IN " THE'WINTER WHEAT AREA.
- 3 ,5 6 7
-3,518
- 3 ,4 4 4
•
- 83 TABLE I I I , APPENDIX B .
Farm U n it
Y ie ld • . .
■ |u . 'a /
Farm
Y ie ld
E u.
5 .5
5 .6
5 .7
5 .8
5 .9
6 .0
6 .1
6 .2
6 .3
6 .4
. 6 .5
6 .6
6 .7
6 .8
6 .9
7 .0
7 .1
7 .2
7 .3
7 .4
7 .5
7 .6
7 .7
7 .8
7 .9
8 .0
. 8 .1
8 .2
8 .3
8 .4
8 .5
8 .6
8 .7
8 .8
8 .9
9 .0
■
3 .6 7
3 .7 3
3 .8 0
3 .8 7
3 .9 3
4 .0 0
4 .0 7
4 .1 3
4 .2 0
4 .2 7
4 .3 3
4 .4 0
4 .4 7
4 .5 3
4 .6 0
4 .6 7
4 .7 3
4 .8 0
4 .8 7
4 .9 3
5 .0 0
5 .0 7
5 .1 3
5 .2 0
5 .2 7
5 .3 3 .
■ 5.40
/5 .4 7
5 .5 3
5 .6 0
5 .6 7
5 .7 3
5 .8 0
5 .8 7
5 .9 3
6 .0 0
FARM UNIT NET CASH LOSS OR PROFIT AT VARIOUS
YIELD'LEVELS. IN THE WINTER WHEAT AREA.
Farm U n it
G ro ss
Income.
■ D o l.b /
5 .2 7
5 .3 5
5 .4 5
5 .5 5
5 .6 4
5 .7 4
5 .8 4
5 .9 3
6 .0 3
■ ■ 6 .1 3
6 ,2 1
6 .3 1
- 1 6 .4 1
6 .5 0
6 .6 0
6 .7 0
6 .7 9
6 .8 9
. 6 .9 9
7 .0 7
7 .1 7 '
7 .2 7
7 .3 6
7 .4 6
7 .5 6
7 .6 5
7 .7 5
7 .8 5
7 .9 3
8 .0 3
8 .1 4
8 .2 2
8 .3 2
8 .4 2
8 .5 1
8 .6 1 .
Farm I J n it
E x p en se
D o l .b /
9 .3 9
9 .4 0
9 .4 2
9 .4 4
9 .4 6
9.48=
9 .5 0
9 .5 2
9 .5 4
9 .5 6
9 .5 8
9 .6 0
9 .6 2
9 .6 3
9 .6 5
9 .6 6
9 .6 7
9 .6 8
9 .7 0
' 9 .7 1
9 ,7 2
9 .7 3
9 .7 5
9 .7 6
9 .7 7
9 .7 8
. 9 .8 0
9 .8 1
9 .8 2
9 .8 3
9 .8 5
9 ,8 6
4 .8 7
9 .8 9
9 .9 0
9 .9 1
a / S e e f o o t n o t e ,a t t h e ehd o f T a b l e .
b / See., f o o t n o t e at., t h e end o f T a b le v
S e e f o o t n o t e a t t h e enc( o f T a b l e .
V
■Farm U n it
L oss o r
P ro fit
D o l .b /
- 4 .1 2
- 4 .0 5
- 3 .9 7
- 3 .8 9
- 3 .8 2
- 3 ,7 4
- 3 .6 6
- 3 .5 9
- 3 ,5 1
- 3 .4 3
- 3 .3 7
- 3 .2 9
- 3 .2 1
- 3 .1 3
- 3 .0 5
- 2 .9 6
- 2 .8 8
- 2 .7 9
- 2 .7 1
- 2 .6 4
- 2 .5 5
- 2 .4 6
- 2 .3 9
- 2 .3 0
- 2 .2 1
42.13
■ -2 '.0 5
- 1 .9 6
- 1 .8 9
- 1 .8 0
- 1 .7 1
- 1 .6 4
- 1 .5 5
- 1 .4 7
- 1 .3 9
- 1 .3 0
.
■
Farm U n it
L oss o r
P ro fit
D o I. e /
- 3 ,3 7 8
- 3 ,3 2 1
- 3 ,2 5 5
- 3 ,1 9 0
. - 3 ,1 3 2
- 3 ,0 6 7
- 3 ,0 0 1
- 2 ,9 4 4 '
- 2 ,8 7 8
- 2 ,8 1 3
- 2 ,7 6 3
- 2 ,6 9 8
- 2 ,6 3 2
- 2 ,5 6 7
- 2 ,5 0 1
- 2 ,4 2 7
- 2 ,3 6 2
- 2 ,2 8 8
. - 2 ,2 2 2
- 2 ,1 6 5
'- 2 , 0 9 1
- 2 ,0 1 7
- 1 ,9 6 0 .
- 1 ,8 8 6
- 1 ,8 1 2
- 1 ,7 4 7
- 1 ,6 8 1
- 1 ,6 0 7
- 1 ,5 5 0
- 1 ,4 7 6
- 1 ,4 0 2
- 1 ,3 4 5
- 1 ,2 7 1
- 1 ,2 0 5
- 1 ,1 4 0
- 1 ,0 6 6
TABLE I I I ,
Farm
Y ie ld
Eu.
9 .1
9 .4
9 .5
9.6
9.8
9*9
'
1 0 ,6
Farm U n it
. E xpense
D o l .b /
■ 8 .7 1
8 .8 0
8.90
9,00
9.92
9.94
9.95
9.96
6,33
9 .0 8
9 .1 8
9.99
1 0 .0 0
1 0 .0 1
1 0 .0 2
1 0 .0 4
9 i3 7
6.93
7 .0 0
7 .0 7
1 0 .0 4
1 0 .1 4
6 .8 0
6 .8 7
9 .9 7
9.28
9.47
9.57
9.66
9.76
9.86
9.94
'6 ,6 7
6*73
10,4
10.5
F arm U nitG ro ss
Tnnnme .
D ol . 6 /
6 .0 7
6 .1 3
6 .2 0
6 .2 7
6 .4 0
6 ,4 7
6 .5 3 '
6 ,6 0
9 .7 ■
1 0 .0
1 0 .1
1 0 .2
1 0 .3
APPENDIX B .
(C o n tin u e d ).
FARM UNIT NET CASH LOSS OR PROFIT
''
.A T VARIOUS YIELD ...LEVELS IN THE WINTER WHEAT AREA.
Farm U n it
Y ie ld
B u .a /
9.2
9.3
8 4 -■
'
10*05
1 0 ,0 6
1 0 .0 7
1 0 .0 8
1 0 .1 0
1 0 .1 1
Farm U n it
L oss o r
' P ro fit
D o l .b /
-1.21
- 1 .1 4
- 1 .0 5
- .9 6
- .8 9
- .81
+
.7 2
.6 4
.5 5
.4 7
.3 9
.3 0
.2 1
.1 4
.0 6
.0 3
Farm U n it
L oss o r
P ro fit. ,
D bl . £ /
-
992
935
861
787
730
664
590
525
451
385
320
246
172
115
49
+
25
^
The farm u n i t y i e l d i s tw o t h i r d s o f t h e fa rm y i e l d .
^
O p e r a to r s in co m e , e x p e n s e , and l o s s o r p r o f i t a r e i n te r m s o f d o l l a r s
p e r seed ed a c r e .
C /
.
..
—' O p e r a to r l o s s o r p r o f i t i n t h i s colum n was c a l c u l a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g
t h e o p e r a t o r l o s s o r p r o f i t p e r s e e d e d a c r e by t h e num ber o f s e e d e d
a c re s (8 2 0 ).
/
85 TABLE IV , APPENDIX B.
T h re e-y e ar
Y ie ld
C o m b in a tio n
V
111
112
113
114
121
122
123
124
131
132
133
134
-141
142
143
144
211
212
213
214
221
222
223
224
231
232
233
■ 234
241
■242
243
244
DOLLAR RESERVE REQUIREMENTS- FOR SURVIVAL IN THE
SHORT RUN FOR VARIOUS YIELD COMBINATIONS, SPRING
WHEAT AREA.
R e se rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a rs -O n e ,
Two and T h re e
R e s e rv e s
R e s e r v e s R e s e r v e s . - R e s e r v e s ., R e q u ire d
R e q u ire d
R e q u ire d ■R e q u ire d
Y e a rs One
Y e a r One Y e a r Two Y ear T h re e
and Two
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6,% 24
6 ,7 2 4 . .
6 ,7 2 4
■6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
0
O
0
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4 .
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
- 4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4*349
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
0
0
O
0
-
'
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
'
0'
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
See f o o t n o t e a t t h e end o f T a b l e .
P o l.
P o l.
1 3 ,4 4 8
1 3 ,4 4 8
1 3 ,4 4 8
1 3 ,4 4 8 '
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 1 ,0 7 3
8 ,8 9 8
8 ,8 9 8
8 ,8 9 8
8 ,8 9 8
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
2 0 ,1 7 2
1 7 ,7 9 7
1 5 ,6 2 2
1 3 ,4 4 8
1 7 ,7 9 7
1 5 ,4 2 2
1 3 ,2 4 7
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 5 ,6 2 2
1 3 ,2 4 7
1 1 ,0 7 2
8 ,8 9 8
1 3 ,4 4 8
1 1 ,0 7 3
8,89.8
6 ,7 2 4
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 1 ,0 7 3
8 ,6 9 8
8 ,6 9 8
8 ,6 9 8
8 ,6 9 8
6 ,5 2 3
6 ,5 2 3
6 ,5 2 3
6 ,5 2 3
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
1 7 ,7 9 7
1 5 ,4 2 2
1 3 ,2 4 7
1 1 ,0 7 3
1 5 ,4 2 2
1 3 ,0 4 7
1 0 ,8 7 2
8 ,6 9 8
1 3 ,2 4 7
• 1 0 ,8 7 2
8 ,6 9 7
6 ,5 2 3
1 1 ,0 7 3
8 ,6 9 8
6 ,5 2 3
4 ,3 4 9
.
'
.
«■ 8 6
TABLE IV , APPENDIX .B. . ( C o n t in u e d ) . DOLLAR RESERVE REQUIREMENTS FOR
SURVIVAL IN THE SHORT RUN FOR VARIOUS YIELDCOMBINATIONS, ■SPRING. WHEAT AREA.
T h ree-y ear
Y ie ld
C o m b in a tio n
a/
311
312
313
314
321
322
323
324
331
332
333
334
341
342
343
344.
411
412
413
414
421
422
423
424
431
432
433
434
441
442
443
444 ■
■
R e se rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a r One
R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a r Two
R e se rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a r T h re e
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2,174
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
. 2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2,174
2 ,1 7 4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,174
2 ,1 7 4
■ 0
0
0
0
6,724
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6,724
4,-349
4 ,3 4 9
4,349
4,349
2,174
0
6 ,7 2 4
4,349
2 ,1 7 4
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
1 5 ,6 2 2
1 3 ,2 4 7
1 1 ,0 7 2
8 ,8 9 8
. 1 3 ,2 4 7
1 0 ,8 7 2
4,348
6 ,5 2 2
4 ,3 4 8
8 ,8 9 8
6 ,5 2 3
4 ,3 4 8
2 ,1 7 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
6,724
2,174
0
6 ,7 2 4
4,349
2 ,1 7 4
0
6,724
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
0
■0
0
0
6 ,7 2 4
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
0
2,174 .
P o l.
8,89.8
8 ,8 9 8
8 ,8 9 8
8 ,8 9 8 .
6 ,5 2 3
6 ,5 2 3
6 ,5 2 3
6 ,5 2 3
4 ,3 4 8
4 ,3 4 8
4 ,3 4 8
2 ,1 7 4
.4 ,3 4 9
R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a rs O ne,
Two and T h re e
P o l.
6,724
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4 -
2,174
R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a rs One
and Two
8,697
6 ,5 2 3
1 1 ,0 7 2
8,697
2,174
6,724
1 3 ,4 4 8
1 1 ,0 7 3
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4 .
8,898
6,724
6,724
'
1 1 ,0 7 3
4,349 .
4,349
6 ,5 2 3
4 ,3 4 9
4 ,3 4 9
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
2 ,1 7 4
0
0
0
0
8,698
4,349
8 ,8 9 8
6 ,5 2 3
4 ,3 4 8
2,174
6,724
4,349
2 ,1 7 4
0
,The farm y i e l d s a s s o c i a t e d w ith t h e n u m e r a ls i n t h i s colum n a r e :
1 = 0 b u s h e l s ; 2 = 3 .1 t o 3 .2 b u s h e l s ; 3 = 6 .0 to 6 .1 b u s h e l s ;
4 = 8 .8 b u s h e l s p e r s e e d e d a c r e .
A t t h e 8 .8 b u s h e l y i e l d incom e
t o t h e farm u n i t c o v e r s t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s o f t h e f ir m and h o u s e ­
h o l d . The f i r s t d i g i t i n t h i s colum n i s t h e y e a r one y i e l d , t h e
s e c o n d d i g i t i s th e y e a r two y i e l d , and th e . t h i r d d i g i t i s t h e
year th re e y ie ld .
.8 7 TABLE V5 APPENDIX B.
T h re e-y e ar
Y ie ld
C o m b in a tio n
SJ
111
112
113
114
121
122
123
124
131
132
133
134
141
142
143
• 144
211
212
213
214
221 .
222
223
224
231
232
233
234
241
242
243
244
311
312
313
DOLLAR RESERVE REQUIREMENTS FOR SURVIVAL 'IN THE
SHORT RUN FQR VARIOUS YIELD COMBINATIONS 5 WINTER
, wheat Ar e a ,
R e se rv e s
R e q u ire d ;
Y e a r One
R e se rv e s
R e q u ire d '
Y e a r Two
R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a r T h re e
D o l.
P o l.
P o l.
R e se rv e s
' R e q u ire d
Y e a rs One
and Two
D o l.
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
2*203
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
0
0
0
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0 "
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
8 ,9 6 8
8 ,9 6 8
8 ,9 6 8
8 ,9 6 8
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
2 0 ,2 9 5
1 7 ,9 3 5
1 5 ,7 3 3
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 7 ,9 3 5
1 5 ,5 7 5
1 3 ,3 7 3
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 5 ,7 3 3
. 1 3 ,3 7 3
1 1 ,1 7 1
8 ,9 6 8 1 3 ,5 3 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
8 ,9 6 8
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5 '
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
0
0 .
0
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0-.
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
8 ,8 1 0
8 ,8 1 0
8 ,8 1 0
8 ,8 1 0
6 ,6 0 8
6 ,6 0 8
6 ,6 0 8
6 ,6 0 8
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
1 7 ,9 3 5
1 5 ,5 7 5
1 3 ,3 7 3
1 1 ,1 7 0
1 5 ,5 7 5
1 3 ,2 1 5
1 1 ,0 1 3
8 ,8 1 0
1 3 ,3 7 3
1 1 ,0 1 3
8 ,8 1 1
6 ,6 0 8
1 1 ,1 7 0
8 ,8 1 0
6 ,6 0 8
4 ,4 0 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5 6 ,7 6 5
'6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
2 ,2 0 3
8 ,9 6 8
8 ,9 6 8
8 ,9 6 8
1 5 ,7 3 3
1 3 ,3 7 3
11,171.
4 ,4 0 5
4*405 •
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
' 4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5 .
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
''
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5 •
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
s / S e e f o o t n o t e a t t h e end o f T a b l e .
R e se rv e s
R e q u ire d
Y e a rs O ne,
Two and T h re e
D ol o
-
TABLE V, APPENDIX B.
--
.
T h re e-y e ar
' Y ie ld
C o m b in a tio n
i/
.
88
-
|( C o n tin u e d ) 6 DOLLAR RESERVE REQUIREMENTS FOR SUR­
VIVAL IN THE SHORT RUN FOR VARIOUS YIELD COMBINATIONS, WINTER WHEAT AREA.
R e s e r v e s • R e s e rv e s
R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d R e q u ire d
R e q u ire d
Y e a r One 1 Y e a r Two .Y ear T h re e
P o l.
Dol..
D ol-
R e se rv e s
R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d
R e q u ire d
Y e a rs One Y e a rs One
•and Two Two .and Th:
D o l.'
D o l- •
314
321
322
323
324
331
332
333
334
341
342
343
344
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3 2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
0
0
0
0
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
8 ,9 6 8
6 ,6 0 8
.6 ,6 0 8
6 ,6 0 8
6 ,6 0 8
4 ,4 0 6
4 ,4 0 6
4 ,4 0 6
4 ,4 0 6
2 ,2 0 3
2,2Q 3
2 ,2 0 3
, 2 ,2 0 3
411
412 •
413
414
’ 421
0
0
0
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
. 4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
' 4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
0
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
' 4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
4 ,4 0 5
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 0 3
0
0
0
. 0
422
423
424
431
432
433
434
441
442
443
444
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
■o
0
0
0
■
Q
0
0
8 ,9 6 8
1 3 ,3 7 3
1 1 ,0 1 3
. 8 ,8 1 1
6 ,6 0 8
1 1 ,1 7 1
8 ,8 1 1
6 ,6 0 9
4 ,4 0 6
8 ,9 6 8
6 ,6 0 8
4 ,4 0 6
2 ,2 0 3 .
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 1 ,1 7 0
8*968
6 ,7 6 5
1 1 ,1 7 0
8 ,8 1 0
6 ,6 0 8
4 ,4 0 5
8 ,9 6 8
6 ,6 0 8
4 ,4 0 6
2 ,2 0 3
6 ,7 6 5
4 ,4 0 5
• 2 ,2 0 3
0
i / The fa rm y i e l d s a s s o c i a t e d w ith t h e n u m e ra ls a r e s
1 = 0 b u s h e ls ;
2 = 3 .8 t o 3 .9 b u s h e l s ; 3 = 7 .3 t o 7 .4 b u s h e ls '; 4 - 1 0 .5 b u s h e ls p e r
s e e d e d a c r e . A t t h e 1 0 . 5 . b u s h e l - y i e l d incom e, t o t h e fa rm u n i t c o v e rs
t h e c a s h e x p e n s e s o f t h e f i r m and h o u s e h o ld ,. The f i r s t d i g i t i n t h i s
colum n i s t h e y e a r oti'e y i e l d , t h e s e c o n d d i g i t . i s t h e y e a r two y i e l d ,
and t h e t h i r d d i g i t i s t h e y e a r t h r e e y i e l d .
** 8 9 =*
TABLE I , APPENDIX C ,
Y ie ld
S e rie s
No.
I
20
9
'27
19
26
21
22
29
24
.
Average
MAXIMUM RESERVES, IN DOLLARS, REQUIRED AT ANY ONE
TIME FOR SURVIVAL UNDER SHORT RUN CONDITIONS FOR
EACH YIELD SERIES, SPRING WHEAT AREA.
Y e a rs
of
D a ta
A v erag e
Y ie ld '
S ta n d a r d
D e v ia tio n
Y rs =
Bu=
Bu.
15
19
17
19
17
17
17
19
16
19
1 7 .5
1 7 .5
1 7 .3
1 7 .1
1 5 .7
1 5 .1
1 5 .1
6 .3 0
16
15
19
18
10
7.22
1 4 .6
1 4 .5
1 4 .4
1 5 .6
6 .9 0
6 .4 3
7 .1 4
6 .7 3
6 .4 0
5 .5 7
6 .9 3
6 .7 6
6 .6 4
1 4 .0
1 3 .9
. 7 .1 3
6 .3 2
14.9
16
13.8
6.19
3
2
8
30
4
V
18
6
A v erag e
17
18 •
17
15
16
18
17
1 7 .1
1 3 .8
1 3 .7
1 3 .4
1 3 .2
1 2 .8
1 2 .4
1 1 .9
1 3 .3
6 .1 6
7
25
14
13
12
17
11
5
28
23
A v erag e
A ll S e r i e s
A verage
17
17
19
21
19
19
17
17
17
17.
18.9
1 1 .8
1 1 .7
1 1 .5
1 1 .4
1 1 .2
1 1 .2
1 1 .1
9 .7
8 .5
6 .2
1 0 .4
1 7 .5
1 3 .1
5.39
7.49
6.89
•
3 6 .0
4 1 .7
4 0 .3
472
4 6 .9
8 ,1 1 7
42.65 ( 4 2 .5 6 )
4,366
42.9
3 8 .1
50.9
6,346
4 5 .5
4 4 .8
4 4 .6
' 6,724
39.3
55.9
6.20
6.12
5 1 .4
6 .3 6
47.94 ( 4 7 .8 2 )
50.0
6 .6 3
56.2
7.73
6 6 .1
3 .0 1
D o l.
47.8
40.9
. 4 7 .3
4 4 .6
5 2 .2
4 4 .8
5 .7 5
7 .0 3
7 .2 6
4 .3 8
5 .4 3
Max. R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d f o r
S u r v iv a l
3,436
6,724
3,296
5,384
2,304
6,724
3,830
3,375
5 .7 4
5.77
3.73
•
. C o e ffic ie n t
of
V a ria tio n
\
P e t.
50.0
6 1 .7
64.8
3 9 .1
48.9
59.5
43.9
2,148
5,286
4,334
4,838
6,724
5,234
6,724
6,724
5,508
5,837
9,909
4 , 590 .
15,970
9,577
4,588
8,241 '
13,171
11,201
4 8 .5
5 3 .8 7 ( 5 4 .5 2 )
3 5 ,5 5 0
5.67
6.22
48.15 ( 4 7 .4 8 )
7,276
11 , 953 .
- 90 TABLE I I 9 APPENDIX C .
.
Y ie ld
S e rie s
No.
4
339
17
8
29
28
6
31
2
24 '
7
A verage
18
27
-21
34
37
22
5
15
16
35
23
3
14
A verage
Y e a rs
of
D a ta
YrSi.
18
19
18
18
17
18
18
20
20
22
• 18
20
1 8 .8 3
16
16
18
18
18
19
17
24
. 19
' 14
. 20
20
20
1 8 .3 8
MAXIMUM RESERVES, IN DOLLARS, REQUIRED AT ANY
ONE TIME FOR SURVIVAL UNDER SHORT RUN CONDITIONS
FOR EACH YIELD SERIES, WINTER WHEAT AREA.
C o e ffic ie n t
of
V a ria tio n
Max. R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d f o r
S u r v iv a l
A verage
Y ie ld
S ta n d a r d
D e v ia tio n
Bu.
Eu.
P e t.
D o l.
29.3
10.15
2 1 .8
2 1 .0 .
2 0 .9
6 .6 7
3 4 .6
3 0 .6
4 5 .1
246
20.0
2 0 .0
1 9 .7
19.5
19.0
9.48
8 .6 6
9.10
4.67
7.00
7 .3 6
935
0
41.4
45.5
23.3
2,165
11,423
3 5 .5
3 7 .7
4 0 .4
1,402
4,781
8,315
9,709
7,872
0
1 8 .8
7.68
9.48
17.9
8 .7 8
50.4
49.0
1 7 .8
2 0 .5
9.67
8.225
5 4 .3
4 0 .6 5 ( 4 0 .1 2 )
1 7 .2
1 7 .0
8.69
9.78
8.75
5 0 .5
1 1 ,3 1 0
57.5
11,136
5,076
16.8
16.8
16.4
6 .4 1
1 6 .3
6.57
6.19
16.2
5 .1 1
1 5 .8
1 5 .5
9.54
9.22
5.27
6.44
' 14.9
1 4 .5
1 4 .4
1 4 .1
15.8
5 .3 4
7 .0 8
7.26
5 2 .1
3 8 .1
4 0 .1
1 1 ,3 5 7
4,850
1 ,8 1 2
6,765
38.0
2 ,9 4 4
3 1 .5
2,944
26,552
7,929
' 4,534
4,551
60.4
5 9 .5
35.4
4 4 .4
3 7 .1
. 5 0 .2
'
45.75 ( 4 5 .9 5 )
1 1 ,1 4 4
6,765
7,959
— 91 "
TABLE I I 9 APPENDIX C.
'
Y ie ld
S e rie s
Y e a rs
of
D ata
■No.
Y rs.
I
32
36
25
12
26
10
30
13
19
20.
H
A v erag e
O v e r-a ll
A v erag e
(Continued). MAXIMUM RESERVES, IN DOLLARS,
REQUIRED AT ANY ONE TIME FOR SURVIVAL UNDER SHORT
RUN CONDITIONS FOR EACH YIELD SERIES, WINTER
WHEAT AREA.
A v erag e
Y ie ld
S ta n d a r d
D e v ia tio n
Bu o
Eu.
13.4
7 .0 0
1 3 .4
1 3 .2
1 2 .8
5 .6 2
5.46
12.5
6.88
6 .2 4
17.83
1 1 .7
1 1 .6
1 1 .4
1 0 .7
1 0 .6 .
9 .7
7 .0
1 1 .5
18.35
1 5 .9
19
20
16 '
16
18
18
18
19
17
17
19
17
5.86-
6.69
3.89
4.69
6 .1 8
3 .0 5
.
3.86
5.45
6.99
C o e ffic ie n t
of
V a ria tio n
Max. R e s e rv e s
R e q u ire d f o r
S u r v iv a l
P e t.
Do I . .
52.2 -
6,621
9,578
' 41.4
4,723
4 5 .8
9,832
5 5 .0
’ 11,455
5 3 .3
10,012
5 7 .7
20,350
3 4 .1
14,687 '
43.8
12,039
58.3
12,706
31 =4
■ 13,270 ■
55.1
41,061
4 7 .5 0 ( 4 7 .3 9 )
13,861
4 1 .9
8,865
44.66 ( 43 . 96 )
t
TABLE I I I .
APPENDIX C .
Farm
Y ie ld
Farm
U n it
Y ie ld
E u.
Bu.
7 .8
2 4 .6
1 0 .7
2 5 .9
1 9 .6
1 4 .2
1 1 .3
1 3 .9
8 .2
2 .4
1 5 .5
9 .5
1 4 .4
2 6 .4
1 3 .1
2 8 .0
1 1 .8
7 .1
9 .2
5 .8 5 0
1 8 .4 5 0
8 .0 2 5
1 9 .4 2 5
1 4 .7 0 0
1 0 .6 5 0
8 .4 7 5
1 0 .4 2 5
6 .1 5 0
1 .8 0 0
1 1 .6 2 5
7 .1 2 5
1 0 .8 0 0
1 9 .8 0 0
9 .8 2 5
2 1 .0 0 0
8 .8 5 0
5 .3 2 5
6 .9 0 0
YIELD S E R IE S 1 9 , SPRING WHEAT AREA HIGH YIELD GROUP, CASH AND GRAIN RESERVES EQUIVALENT
TO $ 6 , 7 2 4 AT THE BEGINNING THE OF PERIOD.
Farm U n it
G ro s s
Incom e
P e r A cre
F irm
E x p en se
Per
A cre
P o l.
P o l.
8 .8 1
2 7 .7 9
1 2 .0 9
2 9 .2 6
2 2 .1 4
1 6 .0 4
1 2 .7 6
1 5 .7 0
9 .2 6
2 .7 1
1 7 .5 1
1 0 .7 3
1 6 .2 7
2 9 .8 2
1 4 .8 0
3 1 .6 3
1 3 .3 3
8 .0 2
1 0 .3 9
1 0 .9 1
1 1 .9 0
1 1 .2 0
1 1 .9 6
1 1 .6 5
1 1 .3 8
1 1 .2 3
1 1 .3 6
1 0 .9 7
9 .8 3
1 1 .4 4
1 1 .1 4
1 1 .3 9
1 1 .9 9
1 1 .3 2
1 2 .0 7
1 1 .2 6
1 0 .8 0
1 1 .1 2
F irm
N et In c .
B e fo r e
I n c . T axes
C ash R e s e r v e f /
Farm U n it
N e t C a sh
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u r p lu s
P o l.
P o l.
- 1 ,7 2 2
1 3 ,0 3 0
730
1 4 ,1 8 6
8 ,6 0 2
3 ,8 2 1
1 ,2 5 5
3 ,5 5 9
- 1 ,4 0 2
- 5 ,8 3 8
4 ,9 7 7
336
4 ,0 0 2
1 4 ,6 2 1
2 ,8 5 4
1 6 ,0 3 9
1 ,6 9 7
- 2 ,2 8 0
599
-
79 2
1 1 ,8 5 7
1 ,6 6 0
1 2 ,7 1 3
8 ,4 3 9
4 ,5 7 4
2 ,1 8 5
4 ,3 6 9
472
- 4 ,9 0 8
5 ,4 9 2
594
4 ,7 1 1
1 2 ,9 3 9
3 ,7 8 4
1 4 ,0 5 8
2 ,6 2 7
- 1 ,3 5 0
331
P o l.
0
1 1 ,0 6 5
1 ,6 6 0
1 2 ,7 1 3
8 ,4 3 9
4 ,5 7 4
2 ,1 8 5
4 ,3 6 9
0
0
112
594
4 ,7 1 1
1 2 ,9 3 9
3 ,7 8 4
1 4 ,0 5 8
2 ,6 2 7
0
0
R e serv e h e ld a s cash in th e b an k .
c /
P o l.
P o l.
792
1 1 ,2 7 1
1 ,6 6 0
1 2 ,7 1 3
8 ,4 3 9
4 ,5 7 4
2 ,1 8 5
4 ,3 6 9
472
- 4 ,9 0 8
52 7
594
4 ,7 1 1
1 2 ,9 3 9
3 ,7 8 4
1 4 ,0 5 8
2 ,6 2 7
- 1 ,3 5 0
331
0
1 1 ,2 7 1
1 ,6 6 0
1 2 ,7 1 3
8 ,4 3 9
4 ,5 7 4
2 ,1 8 5
4 ,3 6 9
0
0
5 27
5 94
4 ,7 1 1
1 2 ,9 3 9
3 .7 8 4
1 4 ,0 5 8
2 ,6 2 7
0
0
7 92
1 1 ,2 7 1
1 ,6 6 0
1 2 ,7 1 3
8 ,4 3 9
4 ,5 7 4
2 ,1 8 5
4 ,3 6 9
472
- 4 ,9 0 8
3 ,8 3 0
594
3 ,8 3 0
1 1 ,4 4 5
3 ,7 8 4
1 4 ,0 5 8
2 ,6 2 7
- 1 ,3 5 0
331
a s g ra in
v a lu e o f $ 5 ,3 7 4 .
in
8 4 ,4 5 1
P o l.
0
1 1 ,2 7 1
1 ,6 6 0
1 2 ,7 1 3
8 ,4 3 9
4 ,5 7 4
2 ,1 8 5
4 ,3 6 9
0
0
3 ,8 3 0
5 94
3 ,8 3 0
1 1 ,4 4 5
3 ,7 8 4
1 4 ,0 5 8
2 ,6 2 7
0
331
8 5 ,7 1 0
A t t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a lu e o f $ 5 ,7 0 5 .
R e se rv e h e ld a s g r a in in s to r a g e , r a p id r e p la c e m e n t.
R e se rv e h e ld
P o l.
8 3 ,8 3 0
C u m u la tiv e T o t a l
b/
G r a in R e s e r v e b7 G r a i n R e s e r v e c /
Farm U n it
Farm U n it
N e t C ash
Y e a r ly
N e t C ash
Y e a rly
Incom e
Incom e
S u rp lu s
S u rp lu s
At t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 5 ,7 0 5 .
s t o r a g e , r e p la c e m e n t on h ig h y i e l d
y ears.
A t th e end o f th e
p e rio d
th is
re serv e has a
TABLE IV , APPENDIX C .
YIELD SE R IE S THREE, SPRING WHEAT AREA MEAN YIELD GROUP, CASH AND GRAIN RESERVES EQUIVALENT
TO $ 6 , 7 2 4 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
Farm
Y ie ld
Farm
U n it
Y ie ld
Farm U n it
G ro s s
Incom e
P e r A cre
E u.
Bu.
D o l.
P o l.
1 3 .3 3
1 1 .4 1
1 6 .1 5
2 2 .5 9
1 5 .8 1
5 .7 6
7 .0 0
9 .4 9
1 3 .3 3
7 .7 9
2 7 .2 2
9 .8 3
2 1 .9 1
2 1 .3 5
1 4 .4 6
3 0 .9 5
1 5 .8 1
7 .4 6
1 3 .4 4
1 1 .2 6
1 1 .1 7
1 1 .3 8
1 1 .6 7
1 1 .3 7
1 0 .4 3
1 0 .6 6
1 1 .0 0
1 1 .2 6
1 0 .7 7
1 1 .8 7
1 1 .0 4
1 1 .6 4
1 1 .6 1
1 1 .3 1
1 2 .0 4
1 1 .3 7
1 0 .7 3
1 1 .2 6
1 1 .8
1 0 .1
1 4 .3
2 0 .0
1 4 .0
5 .1
6 .2
8 .4
1 1 .8
6 .9
2 4 .1
8 .7
1 9 .4
1 8 .9
1 2 .8
2 7 .4
1 4 .0
6 .6
1 1 .9
8 .8 5 0
7 .5 7 5
1 0 .7 2 5
1 5 .0 0 0
1 0 .5 0 0
3 .8 2 5
4 .6 5 0
6 .3 0 0
8 .8 5 0
5 .1 7 5
1 8 .0 7 5
6 .5 2 5
1 4 .5 5 0
1 4 .1 7 5
9 .6 0 0
2 0 .5 5 0
1 0 .5 0 0
4 .9 5 0
8 .9 2 5
F irm
E x p e n se
Per
A cre
F irm
N et In c .
B e fo r e
In c . T axes
C a sh R e s e r v e a /
Farm U n it
N e t C ash
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u r p lu s
P o l.
1 ,6 9 7
197
3 ,9 1 1
8 ,9 5 4
3 ,6 4 1
- 3 ,8 2 9
- 3 ,0 0 1
- 1 ,2 3 8
1 ,6 9 7
- 2 ,4 4 4
1 2 ,5 8 7
99 2
8 ,4 2 1
7 ,9 8 7
2 ,5 8 3
1 5 ,5 0 6
3 ,6 4 1
- 2 ,6 8 1
788
P o l.
2 ,6 2 7
1 ,1 2 7
4 ,6 3 9
8 ,7 2 0
4 ,4 3 4
- 2 ,8 9 9
- 2 ,0 7 1
303
2 ,6 2 7
- 1 ,5 1 4
1 1 ,5 3 1
62
8 ,2 9 4
7 ,9 4 3
3 ,5 1 3
1 3 ,6 7 7
4 ,4 3 4
- 1 ,7 5 1
2 ,7 1 8
P o l.
2 ,6 2 7
1 ,1 2 7
4 ,6 3 9
8 ,7 2 0
4 ,4 3 4
0
0
0
0
0
7 ,3 6 6
0
8 ,2 3 2
7 ,9 4 3
3 ,5 1 3
1 3 ,6 7 7
4 ,4 3 4
0
96 7
6 7 ,6 7 9
C u m u la tiv e T o t a l
P o l.
2 ,6 2 7
1 ,1 2 7
4 ,6 3 9
8 ,7 2 0
4 ,4 3 4
- 2 ,8 9 9
- 2 ,0 7 1
308
0
- 1 ,5 1 4
8 ,2 9 5
62
8 ,2 4 4
7 ,9 4 3
3 ,5 1 3
1 3 ,6 7 7
4 ,4 3 4
- 1 ,7 5 1
96 7
G r a in R e se rv e c /
Farm U n it
Y e a r ly
N e t C ash
S u rp lu s
Incom e
P o l.
2 ,6 2 7
1 ,1 2 7
4 ,6 3 9
8 ,7 2 0
4 ,4 3 4
0
0
0
0
0
8 ,2 9 5
0
8 ,2 4 4
7 ,9 4 3
3 ,5 1 3
1 3 ,6 7 7
4 ,4 3 4
0
967
6 8 ,6 2 0
P o l.
P o l.
2 ,6 2 7
1 ,1 2 7
4 ,6 3 9
8 ,7 2 0
4 ,4 3 4
- 2 ,8 9 9
- 2 ,0 7 1
308
2 ,6 2 7
- 1 ,5 1 4
6 ,1 6 5
62
8 ,2 4 4
7 ,9 4 3
3 ,5 1 3
1 3 ,6 7 7
4 ,4 3 4
- 1 ,7 5 1
2 ,7 1 8
2 ,6 2 7
1 ,1 2 7
4 ,6 3 9
8 ,7 2 0
4 ,4 3 4
0
0
0
2 ,6 2 7
0
6 ,1 6 5
0
8 ,2 4 4
7 ,9 4 3
3 ,5 1 3
1 3 ,6 7 7
4 ,4 3 4
0
2 .7 1 8
7 0 ,8 6 8
At t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 6 ,7 2 4 .
i /
R e s e rv e h e l d a s c a s h in
V
R e serv e h e ld a s g r a in in s t o r a g e , r a p id r e p la c e m e n t,
V
R e serv e h e ld a s g r a in in
v a l u e o f $ 4 ,9 7 3 .
th e b an k ,
G r a in R e s e rv e b /
Farm U n it
N e t C ash
Y e a r ly
Incom e
S u rp lu s
At t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 6 ,7 2 4 .
s t o r a g e , r e p l a c e m e n t on h i g h y i e l d y e a r s .
A t t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a
TABLE V , APPENDIX C .
Farm
U n it
Y ie ld
Farm
Y ie ld
Eu.
3 .0
3 .1
7 .9
1 4 .7
1 8 .7
1 6 .2
9 .8
4 .2
6 .5
1 0 .1
1 1 .8
1 .3
1 9 .0
1 3 .9
1 4 .0
2 4 .0
0
2 6 .1
9 .2
1 3 .7
1 6 .4
YEILD SE R IE S 1 2 , SPRING WHEAT AREA LOW YIELD GROUP, CASH AND GRAIN RESERVES EQUIVALENT
TO $ 1 0 , 0 8 6 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
Farm L k iit
G ro ss
Incom e
P e r A cre
P o l.
P o l.
E u.
2 .2 5 0
2 .3 2 5
5 .9 2 5
1 1 .0 2 5
1 4 .0 2 5
1 2 .1 5 0
7 .3 5 0
3 .1 5 0
4 .8 7 5
7 .5 7 5
8 .8 5 0
0
1 4 ,2 5 0
1 0 .4 2 5
1 0 .5 0 0
1 8 .0 0 0
0
1 9 .5 7 5
6 .9 0 0
1 0 .2 7 5
1 2 .3 0 0
F irm
E x p e n se
P er
A cre
9 .9 7
9 .9 9
1 0 .9 2
1 1 .4 0
1 1 .6 0
1 1 .4 8
1 1 .1 6
1 0 .2 5
1 0 .7 1
1 1 .1 7
1 1 .2 6
9 .3 3
1 1 .6 2
1 1 .3 6
1 1 .3 7
1 1 .8 7
9 .3 3
1 1 .9 7
1 1 .1 2
1 1 .3 5
1 1 .4 9
3 .3 9
3 .5 0
8 .9 2
1 6 .6 0
2 1 .1 2
1 8 .3 0
1 1 .0 7
4 .7 4
7 .3 4
1 1 .4 1
1 3 .3 3
0
2 1 .4 6
1 5 .7 0
1 5 .8 1
2 7 .1 1
0
2 9 .4 8
1 0 .3 9
1 5 .4 8
1 8 .5 3
F irm
N et In c .
B e fo re
I n c . T axes
C a sh R e s e r v e a /
F arm U n it
N e t C a sh
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u rp lu s
M - 5 ,3 9 6
- 5 ,3 2 2
1 ,6 4 0
4 ,2 6 4
7 ,8 0 6
5 ,5 9 2
74
- 4 ,5 1 8
- 2 ,7 6 3
197
1 ,6 9 7
- 7 ,6 5 1
8 ,0 6 9
3 ,5 5 9
3 ,6 4 1
1 2 ,4 9 7
- 7 ,6 5 1
1 4 ,3 5 8
599
3 ,3 8 7
5 ,7 7 3
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
0
0
0
0
6 ,4 2 6
5 ,9 9 9
856
0
0
0
0
0
0
3 ,9 8 8
4 ,4 3 4
1 1 ,4 6 4
0
6 ,0 9 7
331
4 ,2 3 2
6 .1 4 6
- 4 ,4 6 6
- 4 ,3 9 2
0
0
6 ,9 1 6
5 ,9 9 9
856
- 3 ,5 8 8
- 1 ,8 3 3
0
0
- 6 ,7 2 4
608
4 ,3 6 9
4 ,4 3 4
1 1 ,4 6 4
- 6 ,7 2 4
7 ,6 6 2
331
4 ,2 3 2
6 ,1 4 6
0
0
0
0
6 ,9 1 6
5 ,9 9 9
856
0
0
0
0
0
008
4 ,3 6 9
4 ,4 3 4
1 1 ,4 6 4
0
7 ,6 6 2
331
4 ,2 3 2
6 .1 4 6
- 4 ,4 6 6
- 4 ,3 9 2
2 ,5 7 0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,9 1 3
856
- 3 ,5 8 8
- 1 ,8 3 3
1 ,1 2 7
2 ,6 4 7
- 6 ,7 2 4
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,8 3 0
7 ,0 8 6
- 6 ,7 2 4
7 ,6 6 2
331
4 ,2 3 2
6 ,1 4 6
SJ
a s c a sh in th e b an k .
R e serv e h e ld
a s g r a in in s to r a g e ,
R ese rv e
h e ld a s
v a lu e o f $ 1 0 ,0 8 6 .
g a a in
in
P o l.
5 3 ,0 1 7
4 9 ,9 7 3
R e serv e h e ld
G r a in R e s e r v e c /
Farm U n it
N et C ash
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u r p lu s
- 4 ,4 6 6
- 4 ,3 9 2
2 ,5 7 0
4 ,9 1 4
7 ,8 0 0
5 ,9 9 9
856
- 3 ,5 8 8
- 1 ,8 3 3
1 ,1 2 7
2 ,6 2 7
- 6 ,7 2 4
8 ,0 1 0
4 ,3 6 9
4 ,4 3 4
1 1 ,4 9 7
- 6 ,7 2 4
1 2 ,8 2 1
331
4 ,2 3 2
6 ,1 4 6
C u m u la tiv e T o t a l
5 /
G r a in R e s e r v e b /
F arm U n it
Y e a rly
N e t C ash
Incom e
S u rp lu s
0
0
2 ,5 7 0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,9 1 3
856
0
0
1 ,1 2 7
2 ,6 4 7
0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,8 3 0
7 ,0 8 6
0
7 ,6 6 2
331
4 ,2 3 2
6 .1 4 6
5 5 ,7 2 0
At t h e e n d o r t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 1 0 ,0 8 6 .
r a p id r e p la c e m e n t,
A t t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a lu e o f $ 1 0 ,0 8 6 .
s to r a g e ,re p la c e m e n t on h ig h y i e l d
y ears.
A t th e end
o f th e p e rio d
th is
re serv e has a
TABLE V I , APPENDIX C .
F arm
Y ie ld
F arm
U n it
Y ie ld
Bu.
B u.
3 .2
1 7 .9
1 1 .4
9 .1
1 9 .5
3 0 .5
1 9 .9
1 8 .6
2 5 .9
1 4 .1
1 5 .5
2 7 .0
2 0 .7
1 4 .5
2 2 .0
1 8 .4
2 2 .1
3 6 .9
1 7 .3
2 4 .9
3 6 .5
3 4 .0
2 .1 3 3
1 1 .9 3 3
7 .6 0 0
6 .0 6 7
1 3 .0 0 0
2 0 .3 3 3
1 3 .2 6 7
1 2 .4 0 0
1 7 .2 6 7
9 .4 0 0
1 0 .3 3 3
1 8 .0 0 0
1 3 .8 0 0
9 .6 6 7
1 4 .6 6 7
1 2 .2 6 7
1 4 .7 3 3
2 4 .6 0 0
1 1 .5 3 3
1 6 .0 0 0
2 4 .3 3 3
2 2 .6 6 7
YIELD SE R IE S S I X , SPRING WHEAT AREA HIGH YIELD GROUP, CASH AND GRAIN RESERVES EQUIVALENT
TO $ 1 0 , 1 4 7 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIO D.
F arm U n it
G ro ss
Incom e
P e r A cre
F irm
E x p e n se
P er
A cre
P o l.
P o l.
3 .0 6
1 7 .1 2
1 0 .9 0
8 .7 0
1 8 .6 5
2 9 .1 7
1 9 .0 3 .
1 7 .7 9
2 4 .7 7
1 3 .4 9
1 4 .8 3
2 5 .8 3
1 9 .8 0
1 3 .8 7
2 1 .0 4
1 7 .6 0
2 1 .1 4
3 5 .2 9
1 6 .5 5
2 3 .8 2
3 4 .9 1
3 2 .5 2
1 0 .9 7
1 2 .5 5
1 2 .2 3
1 2 .0 0
1 2 .6 3
1 3 .1 8
1 2 .6 5
1 2 .5 9
1 2 .9 5
1 2 .4 0
1 2 .4 3
1 3 .0 1
1 2 .6 9
1 2 .3 8
1 2 .7 6
1 2 .5 8
1 2 .7 6
1 3 .5 0
1 2 .5 2
1 2 .9 0
1 3 .4 8
1 3 .3 6
F irm
N et In c .
B e fo re
In c . T axes
C a sh R e s e r v e a /
F arm U n it
Y e a rly
N e t C a sh
S u rp lu s
Incom e
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
- 4 ,7 7 9
5 ,2 9 4
616
999
6 ,2 3 8
1 2 ,6 0 2
6 ,4 8 0
5 ,6 9 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
2 ,6 0 1
3 ,6 7 5
1 0 ,7 4 3
6 ,9 7 0
2 ,9 2 9
7 ,7 5 7
5 ,5 8 3
7 ,8 2 4
1 6 ,1 1 6
4 ,9 7 4
9 ,4 9 7
1 5 ,9 0 9
1 4 ,6 0 1
0
515
616
0
5 ,2 3 9
1 2 ,6 0 2
6 ,4 8 0
5 ,6 9 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
2 ,6 0 1
3 ,6 7 5
1 0 ,7 4 3
6 ,9 7 0
2 ,9 2 9
7 ,7 5 7
5 ,5 8 3
7 ,8 2 4
1 6 ,1 1 6
4 ,9 7 4
9 ,4 9 7
1 5 ,9 0 9
1 4 .6 0 1
- 4 ,7 7 9
675
616
999
5 ,4 3 9
1 2 ,6 0 2
6 ,4 8 0
5 ,6 9 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
2 ,6 0 1
3 ,6 7 5
1 0 ,7 4 3
6 ,9 7 0
2 ,9 2 9
7 ,7 5 7
5 ,5 8 3
7 ,8 2 4
1 6 ,1 1 6
4 ,9 7 4
9 ,4 9 7
1 5 ,9 0 9
1 4 ,6 0 1
0
675
616
0
5 ,4 3 9
1 2 ,6 0 2
6 ,4 8 0
5 ,6 9 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
2 ,6 0 1
3 ,6 7 5
1 0 ,7 4 3
6 ,9 7 0
2 ,9 2 9
7 ,7 5 7
5 ,5 8 3
7 ,8 2 4
1 6 ,1 1 6
4 ,9 7 4
9 ,4 9 7
1 5 ,9 0 9
1 4 .6 0 1
- 4 ,7 7 9
4 ,6 0 7
6 ,2 1 5
5 ,2 1 6
4 ,6 0 7
1 0 ,5 0 6
6 ,4 8 0
5 ,6 9 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
2 ,6 0 1
3 ,6 7 5
1 0 ,7 4 3
6 ,9 7 0
2 ,9 2 9
7 ,7 5 7
5 ,5 8 3
7 ,8 2 4
1 6 ,1 1 6
4 ,9 7 4
9 ,4 9 7
1 5 ,9 0 9
1 4 ,6 0 1
1 5 0 ,4 1 2
C u m u la tiv e T o t a l
V
R e serv e h e ld a s c a s h in th e b a n k .
b/
R e serv e h e ld a s g r a in in s t o r a g e ,
r a p id r e p la c e m e n t.
R ese rv e h e ld a s g r a in
re p la c e m e n t on h ig h y ie ld
c /
v a lu e o f $ 1 0 ,1 4 7 .
in
s to ra g e ,
G r a in R e s e rv e c /
Farm U n it
N e t C ash
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u rp lu s
P o l.
P o l.
- 6 ,4 8 6
3 ,7 4 7
- 1 ,0 9 1
- 2 ,7 0 6
4 ,9 3 6
1 3 ,1 1 2
5 ,2 3 2
4 ,2 6 4
9 ,6 9 2
894
1 ,9 6 8
1 0 ,5 2 1
5 ,8 3 0
1 ,2 2 2
6 ,7 9 0
4 ,1 1 6
6 ,8 7 2
1 7 ,8 6 8
3 ,3 0 5
8 ,9 5 4
1 7 ,5 7 3
1 5 ,7 1 1
G r a in R e s e r v e b /
F arm U n it
N e t C a sh
Y e a rly
S u rp lu s
Incom e
1 5 0 ,7 7 2
P o l.
0
4 ,6 0 7
6 16
0
4 ,6 0 7
1 0 ,5 0 6
6 ,4 8 0
5 ,6 9 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
2 ,6 0 1
3 ,6 7 5
1 0 ,7 4 3
6 ,9 7 0
2 ,9 2 9
7 ,7 5 7
5 ,5 8 3
7 ,8 2 4
1 6 ,1 1 6
4 ,9 7 4
9 ,4 9 7
1 5 ,9 0 9
1 4 .6 0 1
1 5 1 ,7 7 6
A t t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 1 0 ,1 4 7 .
A t t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 1 0 ,1 4 7 .
y e ars.
At th e end o f th e p e rio d
th is re se rv e has a
TABLE V I I ,
F arm
Y ie ld
5 .4
3 .7
1 4 .2
2 0 .1
2 0 .4
3 1 .4
3 3 .9
1 1 .5
7 .8
1 0 .8
2 .6
3 0 .0
1 2 .2
9 .0
7 .1
1 4 .6
2 2 .6
2 4 .5
1 2 .8
1 1 .7
2 5 .9
APPENDIX C .
F arm
U n it
Y ie ld
3 .6 0 0
2 .4 6 7
9 .4 6 7
1 3 .4 0 0
1 3 .6 0 0
2 0 .9 3 3
2 2 .6 0 0
7 .6 6 7
5 .2 0 0
7 .2 0 0
1 .7 3 3
2 0 .0 0 0
8 .1 3 3
6 .0 0 0
4 .7 3 3
9 .7 3 3
1 5 .0 6 7
1 6 .3 3 3
8 .5 3 3
7 .8 0 0
1 7 .2 6 7
YIELD S E R IE S 1 6 , SH H N G WHEAT AREA MEAN YIELD GROUP, CASH AND GRAIN RESERVES EQUIVALENT
TO $ 1 3 , 5 3 0 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIO D .
F arm U n it
G ro ss
Incom e
P e r A cre
F irm
E x p e n se
Per
A cre
D e l.
D o l.
5 .1 7
3 .5 4
1 3 .5 8
1 9 .2 3
1 9 .5 1
3 0 .0 3
3 2 .4 3
1 1 .0 0
7 .4 6
1 0 .3 3
2 .4 9
2 8 .7 0
1 1 .6 7
8 .6 1
6 .7 9
1 3 .9 6
2 1 .6 2
2 3 .4 3
1 2 .2 9
1 1 .1 9
2 4 .7 7
1 1 .4 5
1 1 .0 9
1 2 .3 7
1 2 .6 6
1 2 .6 8
1 3 .2 3
1 3 .3 5
1 2 .2 3
1 1 .8 4
1 2 .2 0
1 0 .8 3
1 3 .1 6
1 2 .2 7
1 1 .9 9
1 1 .7 5
1 2 .3 9
1 2 .7 9
1 2 .8 8
1 2 .3 0
1 2 .2 4
1 2 .9 5
F irm
N et In c .
B e fo re
I n c . T axes
D o l.
- 5 ,1 5 0
- 6 ,1 9 1
992
5 ,3 8 7
5 ,6 0 1
1 3 ,7 7 6
1 5 ,6 4 6
- 1 ,0 0 9
- 3 ,5 9 2
- 1 ,5 3 3
- 6 ,8 3 9
1 2 ,7 4 3
492
- 2 ,7 7 2
- 4 ,0 6 7
1 ,2 8 7
7 ,2 4 1
8 ,6 5 1
49
861
9 ,6 9 2
C a sh R e s e r v e a /
F arm U n i t
Y e a rly
N e t C a sh
Incom e
S u rp lu s
D o l.
- 3 ,4 4 3
- 4 ,4 8 4
2 ,6 9 9
6 ,6 0 8
6 ,7 8 4
1 3 ,1 8 6
1 4 ,5 5 5
698
- 1 ,8 8 5
174
- 5 ,1 3 2
1 2 ,4 2 3
1 ,2 1 5
- 1 ,0 6 5
- 2 ,3 6 0
2 ,9 9 4
8 ,1 2 3
9 ,2 5 5
1 ,6 5 8
846
1 0 ,0 9 0
D o l.
0
0
0
1 ,3 8 0
6 ,7 8 4
1 3 ,1 8 6
1 4 ,5 5 5
698
0
0
0
5 ,5 8 0
1 ,2 1 5
0
0
0
7 ,6 9 2
9 ,2 5 5
1 ,6 5 8
846
1 0 .0 9 0
72*939
C u m u la tiv e T o t a l
R e se rv e h e ld a s c a s h in th e b a n k .
R e serv e h e ld a s g r a in in s to r a g e , r a p id re p la c e m e n t.
£ /
R ese rv e h e ld
a s g ra in
in
D o l.
- 3 ,4 4 3
- 4 ,4 8 4
0
1 ,8 6 6
6 ,7 8 4
1 3 ,1 8 6
1 4 ,5 5 5
698
- 1 ,8 8 5
0
- 5 ,1 3 2
7 ,0 2 6
1 ,2 1 5
- 1 ,0 6 5
- 2 ,3 6 0
0
7 ,7 7 3
9 ,2 5 5
1 ,6 5 8
846
1 0 ,0 9 0
G r a in R e s e r v e b /
Farm U n it
N e t C ash
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u r p lu s
D o l.
0
0
0
1 ,8 6 6
6 ,7 8 4
1 3 ,1 8 6
1 4 ,5 5 5
698
0
0
0
7 ,0 2 6
1 ,2 1 5
0
0
0
7 ,7 7 3
9 ,2 5 5
1 ,6 5 8
846
1 0 .0 9 0
D o l.
- 3 ,4 4 3
- 4 ,4 8 4
2 ,6 9 9
4 ,6 0 7
4 ,6 0 7
1 1 ,1 4 4
1 4 ,5 5 5
698
- 1 ,8 8 5
174
- 5 ,1 3 2
6 ,8 9 1
1 ,2 1 5
- 1 ,0 6 5
- 2 ,3 6 0
2 ,9 9 4
5 ,3 4 7
9 ,2 5 5
1 ,6 5 8
846
1 0 ,0 9 0
74 *952
D o l.
0
0
2 ,6 9 9
4 ,6 0 7
4 ,6 0 7
1 1 ,1 4 4
1 4 ,5 5 5
698
0
174
0
6 ,8 9 1
1 ,2 1 5
0
0
2 ,9 9 4
5 ,3 4 7
9 ,2 5 5
1 ,6 5 8
846
1 0 .0 9 0
7 6 ,7 8 0
At t h e e n d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 1 0 , 1 4 7 .
i /
v a lu e o f $ 1 0 ,1 4 7 .
G r a in R e s e r v e b /
F arm U n it
N e t C a sh
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u r p lu s
At t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a lu e o f $ 1 0 ,1 4 7 .
s to r a g e , re p la c e m e n t on h ig h y ie ld
y e ars.
At th e end o f th e p e rio d
th is
re serv e has a
TABLE V I I I , APPENDIX C .
Farm
Y ie ld
F arm
U n it
Y ie ld
Bu .
B u.
8 .2
1 1 .0
7 .4
8 .8
1 0 .7
1 2 .1
2 1 .6
5 .2
1 1 .6
2 9 .8
3 .8
7 .1
1 2 .6
6 .4
1 0 .0
9 .4
5 .4
1 8 .9
2 4 .1
5 .4 6 7
7 .3 3 3
4 .9 3 3
5 .8 6 7
7 .1 3 3
8 .0 6 7
1 4 .4 0 0
3 .4 6 7
7 .7 3 3
1 9 .8 6 7
2 .5 3 3
4 .7 3 3
8 .4 0 0
4 .2 6 7
6 .6 6 7
6 .2 6 7
3 .6 0 0
1 2 .6 0 0
1 6 .0 6 7
YEILD S E R IE S 1 9 , SPRING WHEAT AREA LOW YIELD GROUP, CASH AND GRAIN RESERVES EQUIVALENT
TO $ 1 3 , 5 3 0 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
F arm U n it
G ro ss
Incom e
P e r A cre
D o t.
7 .8 4
1 0 .5 2
7 .0 8
8 .4 2
1 0 .2 3
1 1 .5 7
2 0 .6 6
4 .9 7
1 1 .0 9
2 8 .5 0
3 .6 3
6 .7 9
1 2 .0 5
6 .1 2
9 .5 7
8 .9 9
5 .1 7
1 8 .0 8
2 3 .0 5
F irm
E x p e n se
Per
A cre
F irm
N et In c .
B e fo re
I n c . T axes
P o l.
P o l.
1 1 .8 9
1 2 .2 1
1 1 .7 9
1 1 .9 7
1 2 .1 9
1 2 .2 6
1 2 .7 4
1 1 .4 1
1 2 .2 4
1 3 .1 5
1 1 .1 1
1 1 .7 5
1 2 .2 9
1 1 .6 4
1 2 .1 2
1 2 .0 4
1 1 .4 5
1 2 .6 0
1 2 .8 6
-
3 ,3 2 1
1 ,3 8 6
3 ,8 6 2
2 ,9 1 1
1 ,6 0 7
566
6 ,4 9 4
- 5 ,2 8 1
943
1 2 ,5 8 7
- 6 ,1 3 4
- 4 ,0 6 7
197
- 4 ,5 2 6
- 2 ,0 9 1
- 2 ,5 0 1
- 5 ,1 5 0
4 ,4 9 4
8 ,3 5 6
C a sh R e s e r v e a /
F arm L h i t
N e t C ash
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u rp lu s
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
P o l.
- 1 ,6 1 4
321
- 2 ,1 5 5
- 1 ,2 0 4
100
1 ,1 4 1
7 ,5 1 5
- 3 ,5 7 4
764
1 2 ,3 0 8
- 4 ,4 2 7
- 2 ,3 6 0
1 ,5 1 0
- 2 ,8 1 9
384
794
- 3 ,4 4 3
5 ,8 9 0
9 ,0 1 9
0
0
0
0
0
0
4 ,1 0 4
0
0
9 ,4 9 8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2 .1 9 2
- 1 ,6 1 4
0
- 2 ,1 5 5
- 1 ,2 0 4
0
0
4 ,7 5 8
- 3 ,5 7 4
0
1 0 ,1 5 7
- 4 ,4 2 7
- 2 ,3 6 0
0
- 2 ,8 1 9
384
794
- 3 ,4 4 3
0
3 ,5 4 7
0
0
0
0
0
0
4 ,7 5 8
0
0
1 0 ,1 5 7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3 .5 4 7
1 5 ,7 9 4
C u m u la tiv e T o t a l
V
R e serv e
h e ld a s c a s h in th e b a n k .
V
R e serv e
h e ld a s g r a in in s t o r a g e ,
e /
R ese rv e h e ld a s g r a in
v a lu e o f $ 1 3 ,5 3 0 .
G r a in R e s e r v e b /
F arm U n it
N e t C a sh
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u rp lu s
in
s to ra g e ,
G r a in R e s e r v e c /
Farm U h it
N e t C ash
Y e a rly
Incom e
S u rp lu s
P o l.
- 1 ,6 1 4
321
- 2 ,1 5 5
- 1 ,2 0 4
100
1 ,1 4 1
4 ,6 0 7
- 3 ,5 7 4
764
9 ,3 2 7
- 4 ,4 2 7
- 2 ,3 6 0
1 ,5 1 0
- 2 ,8 1 9
384
794
- 3 ,4 4 3
4 ,6 0 7
4 ,6 0 7
P o l.
0
321
O
0
100
1 ,1 4 1
4 ,6 0 7
0
764
9 ,3 2 7
0
0
1 ,5 1 0
0
0
0
0
4 ,6 0 7
4 .6 0 7
2 6 ,1 4 3
1 8 ,4 6 2
A t t h e e n d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 1 3 ,5 3 0 .
r a p id r e p la c e m e n t,
A t t h e en d o f t h e p e r i o d t h i s r e s e r v e h a s a v a l u e o f $ 1 3 ,5 3 0
re p la c e m e n t on h ig h y ie ld
y ears.
At th e
end o f th e p e rio d
th is re serv e has a
TABLE I X , APPENDIX C .
Y ear
No.
0
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
L iq u id .
R e s e rv e ® /
YEAR-TO-YEAR .NET WORTH OF A FARM UNIT REPRESENTED
BY Y IE L D 'SE R IE S 1 9 , SPRING WHEAT AREA.
V a lu e o f ■S u r p lu s f o r
A s s e t s ^ / I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
D o l. ■
' Y e a r ly
S u r p lu s
D o l.
2 5 ,0 0 0
'2 1 ,6 9 5
2 5 ,0 0 0
6 ,7 2 4
5,932
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
- 6,724
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 , 7%4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,2 5 2
I , '344
3 ,4 2 1
3 ,4 2 1
0
1 1 ,2 7 1
1 ,6 6 0
1 2 ,7 1 3
23,355
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
2 ,1 8 5 :
4 ,3 6 9
0
0
3 ,8 3 0
594
3 ,8 3 0
1 1 ,4 4 5
3 ,7 8 4
1 4 ,0 5 8
6,724
2,627
5 ,3 7 4
5 .3 7 4
0
331
4,523
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
8,439
4,574
’ i
*.
—
0
4 ,6 6 1
0
7 ,7 6 3
5 ,1 3 4
2 4 ,9 4 4
2 1 ,6 3 9
1 8 ,3 3 4
1 8 ,8 5 9 .
1 6 ,1 4 8
1 6 ,6 7 3
2 4 ,8 1 3
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 4 ,3 2 2
2 1 ,0 1 7
1 8 .0 4 3
. 1,269
0
0
0
0
0
.0
0
0
292
.1 0 ,7 5 3
0
0
0
18:,043
2 9 ,8 7 2
23,880
E nding.
In v en to iy 5 ,3 7 4
— —
.
V a lu e o f
A s s e ts ^ /
P o l. '
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 1 ,6 9 5
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 3 ,3 5 5
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 3 ,8 8 0
2 4 ,9 4 4
2 1 ,6 3 9
1 8 ,3 3 4
1 8 ,8 5 9
1 6 ,1 4 8
1 7 ,4 8 3
21,625
1 9 ,1 5 0
1 6 ,6 7 5
1 4 ,2 0 0
1 0 ,8 9 5
7.921
7,921
S u r p lu s f o r
I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
--0
4 ,6 6 1
0
7 ,7 6 3
5 ,1 3 4
1 ,2 6 9
0
0 ,
0
0
0
0
0
3 ,1 8 8 .
• 2 ,.954
1 3 ,2 2 8 •
1 ,7 9 7
o
0
—
,
3 9 ,9 9 4
.
t
a / The l i q u i d r e s e r v e i s h e l d a s g r a i n i n s t o r a g e w ith r e p la c e m e n t o n ly
fro m h i g h y i e l d y e a r s .
b / v a l u e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o ld . A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i s s u b t r a c t e d e a c h y e a r .
- / V a lu e o f t h e m a c h i n e r y , e q u ip m e n t , a n d b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f i r m a n d .
h o u s e h o l d . O n ly t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r b u i l d i n g s a n d h o u s e h o l d
e q u ip m e n t i s m ade i n t h e l a t e r y e a r s .
- 99 TABLE X , APPENDIX C.
L iq u id
.
. Y ear •R e s e r v e s ^ /
No.
P o l.
YEAR-TO-YEAR NET WORTH OF A.FARM UNIT REPRESENTED
BY YIELD SERIES THREE, SPRING WHEAT AREA.
Y e a r ly
S u r p lu s
D a i.
0
6 ,7 2 4
«—
——
I
6,724
6,724
6,724
2,627
2
3
4
5
■ 6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17.
18
19
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
3 ,8 2 5
1 ,7 5 4
1 ,4 4 6
" 1 ,4 4 6
68
6 ,7 2 4
6,662
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6 ,7 2 4
6,724
6 ,7 2 4
4 .9 7 3
E n d in g
Inventory 4 ,9 7 3
1 ,1 2 7
4 ,6 3 9 '
S', 720
4 ,4 3 4
0
0
0
2 ,6 2 7
0
6,165
0
8 ,2 4 4
7 ,9 4 3
3 ,5 1 3
1 3 ,6 7 7
4 ,4 3 4
0
2 .7 1 8
---
V a lu e o f
A s s e ts ^ /
- D oK
25 f 000
24,322
2 2 ,1 4 4
2 3 ,4 7 8
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
21,695
1 8 ,3 9 0
1 5 ,0 8 5
1 4 ,4 0 7
1 1 ,1 0 2
1 3 ,9 6 2
1 0 ,6 5 7
15,596
2 0 ,2 3 4
2 0 ,4 4 2
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 1 ,6 9 5
2 1 .1 0 8
21,108
S u r p lu s f o r
I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
D o l.
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 4 ,3 2 2
2 2 ,1 4 4
2 3 ,4 7 8
2 5 ,0 0 0
e * eei e e
0
0
0
3 ,8 9 3
1 ,1 2 9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .
0
0
0
5 ,8 1 4
1 ,1 2 9
0
■■ 0 ,
1 1 ,9 6 5
V a lu e o f
A s s e ts ^ /
25,000
2 1 ,6 9 5
1 8 ,3 9 0
1 5 ,0 8 5
1 4 ,4 0 7
1 1 ,1 0 2
.
13,962
10,657
S u r p lu s f o r
I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
0
0
0
3 ,8 9 3
1 ,1 2 9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 6 ,4 9 6
2 1 ,6 2 5
1 9 ,1 5 0
1 6 ,6 7 5
1 4 ,2 0 0
10 ,8 9 5 .
’ 9v250
1 2 ,8 4 7
3 ,6 0 4
0
1 ,0 5 8
9 ,2 5 0
23,823
1,292
2 / The l i q u i d r e s e r v e i s h e ld a s g r a i n i n s t o r a g e w ith r e p la c e m e n t o n ly
fro m h i g h y i e l d y e a r s .
—' V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m an d
h o u s e h o ld . A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i s s u b t r a c t e d e ach ' y e a r .
2 / V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o ld . O nly t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld
e q u ip m e n t i s made i n t h e l a t e r y e a r s .
136405
-
' TABLE XI, APPENDIX C .
Y ear.
,No.
0
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
"17
18
19
20
-21
L iq u id
R e se rv e ^ /
P o l.
1 0 ,0 8 6
5 ,6 2 0
1 ,2 2 8
1 ,2 2 8
2,592
7 ,4 9 8
1 0 ,0 8 6
1 0 ,0 8 6
6,498
4,665
4 ,6 6 5
4 ,6 6 5
■- 2 ,0 5 9
3 ,1 1 0
3 ,7 6 9
4,510
1 0 ,0 8 6
3,362
1 0 ,0 8 6
1 0 ,0 8 6
1 0 ,0 8 6
I O'. 086
E nding,
In v e n to ry l0 ,0 8 6
1 0 0
-
YEAR-TO-YEAR NET WORTH OF A FARM UNIT REPRESENTED
BY YIELD SER IES 1 2 , SPRING WHEAT AREA.
Y e a r ly
S u ro lu S
P o l.
V a lu e o f
A s s e ts ly
D e l.
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 1 ,6 9 5
1 8 ,3 9 0
1 7 ,6 5 5
1 8 ,1 8 0
1 8 ,7 0 5
1 9 ,3 1 3
1 6 ,8 6 4
1 3 ,5 5 9
1 0 ,2 5 4
S u r p lu s f o r
I n v e s tm e n t
• P o l.
7,662
1 0 ,5 2 1
331
4 ,2 3 2
6 .1 4 6
7,547
8,474
1 1 .3 1 5
—- -
1 1 ,3 1 5
0
856
0
0
1 ,1 2 7
2 ,6 4 7
0
3,830
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,8 3 0
7 ,0 8 6
0
8,076
7 ,4 1 8
4 ,1 1 3
4,638
5,163
5 ,6 8 8
9,469
6, 164.
S u r p lu s f o r
In v e s tm e n t
P o l.
2 5 ,0 0 0
0
0
.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2 ,5 7 0
3 ,8 5 0
3 ,8 3 0
3 ,9 1 3
V a lu e o f
A s s e ts ^ /
P o l.
21,695
1 8 ,3 9 0
17,655
1 8 ,1 8 0
1 8 ,7 0 5
1 9 ,3 1 3
1 6 ,8 6 4
13,559
1 0 ,2 5 4 .
8 ,0 7 6
7 ,4 1 8
4 ,1 1 3
4 ,6 3 8
5 ,1 6 3
5 ,6 8 8
9,469
1 6 ,1 6 4
1 0 ,5 2 1
7,547
8 ,4 7 4
9.250
0
0
0
0
-0
0
0
0
•
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2 ,0 6 5
• 2 ,0 6 5
9 ,2 5 0
a /- T h e l i q u i d r e s e r v e i s h e l d a s g r a i n i n s t o r a g e w ith r e p la c e m e n t o n ly
from h ig h y i e l d y e a r s .
V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o l d . . A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a rg e i s s u b t r a c t e d e a c h y e a r .
- / V a l u e o f t h e m a c h i n e r y , e q u ip m e n t , a n d b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f i r m and
h o u s e h o l d . O n ly t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r b u i l d i n g s a n d h o u s e h o l d
e q u ip m e n t i s . m a d e i n t h e l a t e r y e a r s .
X
-
TABLE X I I , APPENDIX C .
Y ear
No.
0
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
YEAR-TO-YEAR NET WORTH OF A FARM UNIT REPRESENTED
BY YIELD SE R IE S S I X , WINTER WHEAT AREA.
L iq u id
Y e a r ly
■ R e s e r v e s ^ / S u r p lu s
D o l.
D o l.
1 0 ,1 4 7
5 ,3 6 8
6,215
'
22
Ending.
I n v e n to r y
6 ,2 1 5
5 ,2 1 6
7 ,2 5 2
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 .1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 1
V a lu e o f
A s s e ts ^ /
P o l.
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 6 ,4 3 3
2 6 ,9 7 3
0
4 ,6 0 7
616
O
4 ,6 0 7
1 0 ,5 0 6
6 ,4 8 0
5 ,6 9 1
1 0 ,0 9 0
2 ,6 0 1
3 ,6 7 5
1 0 ,7 4 3
23,522
1 9 ,4 5 5
19,955
2 6 ,4 3 4
2 8 ,8 4 7
3 0 ,4 7 1
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 9 ,0 3 4
28,642
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 9 ,3 6 2
6,970
2,929
7,757
30,500
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 .5 0 0
5 ,5 8 3
7 ,8 2 4
1 6 ,1 1 6
4,974
9,497
1 5 ,9 0 9
14.601
•
3 0 ,5 0 0
S u r p lu s f o r 1 V a lu e of.
A s s e ts ^ /
I n v e s tm e n t
D ol
■Dol»
- W
-
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5,994
0
0
4 ,8 1 8
2 ,9 0 3
0
2 ,5 5 2
. 1 ,5 1 6
3 0 ,5 0 0
26,433
2 6 ,9 7 3
23,522
1 9 ,4 5 5
19,995
2 6 ,4 3 4
2 8 ,8 4 7
3 0 ,4 7 1
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 9 ,0 3 4
28,642
1 2 ,0 4 9
907
5 ,4 3 0
1 1 ,8 4 2
1 0 .5 3 4
3 0 ,5 0 0
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 9 ,3 6 2
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 9 ,2 4 2
2 6 ,0 3 5
2 2 ,8 2 8
1 9 ,6 2 1
1 6 ,4 1 4
1 3 ,2 0 7
1 0 .0 0 0 .
6 2 ,3 0 2
1 0 ,0 0 0
3,757
S u r p lu s f o r
I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5 ,9 9 4
0
0
4 ,8 1 8
2 ,9 0 3
0
2,552
2 ,7 7 4
6 ,9 6 4
15,256
4 ,1 1 4
8 ,6 3 7
1 5 ,0 4 9
1 3 .7 4 1
8 2 ,8 0 2
a / The l i q u i d r e s e r v e i s h e l d a s g r a i n i n s t o r a g e w ith r e p la c e m e n t o n ly
■from h ig h y i e l d y e a r s
b / V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o ld . A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i s s u b t r a c t e d e a c h y e a r .
S J V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, arid b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o ld . O nly t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a rg e f o r b u i l d i n g s and h o u s e h o ld
e q u ip m e n t i s made i n t h e l a t e r y e a r s .
-
1 0 2
-
TABLE X I I I , APPENDIX C 0 . YEAR-TO-YEAR NET WORTH OF A FARM UNIT REPRE­
SENTED B Y .Y IE L D SER IES 1 6 , WINTER WHEAT AREA.
V a lu e o f t S u r p lu s f o r
Y e a r ly
S u r o iu s : 'A ss e t s ^ / I n v e s tm e n t'
•D o l.'
D o l.
D o l.
L iq u id ,
R es e r v e d /
D o l.
Year.
No.
0
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
■ 12
,1 3
14
15
16
.17
18
19
20
21
1 0 ,1 4 7
6 ,7 0 4
2 ,2 2 0
0
0
2,220
2,699
4 ,7 0 7
.7 ,4 0 8
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
4 ,6 0 7
4,607
1 1 ,1 4 4
1 4 ,5 5 5
698
8,262
8 ,2 6 2
3 ,1 3 0
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
9 ,0 8 2
6 ,7 2 2
6,722
1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7 .
1 0 ,1 4 7
' 1 0 ,1 4 7
1 0 ,1 4 7
0
174
0
6 ,8 9 1
,
1,215
0
0
2,994
5 ,3 4 7
9,255
1 ,6 5 8
846
1 0 .0 9 0
1 2 .7 3 0
—•*—
0
0
0
.0
0
0
9,,143
.
o
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
' 0
0
0
0
0
1 2 ,7 3 0
9 ,1 4 3
30,500"
2 6 ,4 3 3
22,366
20,99.8,
2 1 ,5 3 8
2 2 ,0 7 8
29,155
3 0 ,5 0 0 .
2 7 ,1 3 1
2 3 ,0 6 4
1 9 ,1 7 1
1 5 ,1 0 4
17,928
1 5 ,0 7 6
1 1 ,0 0 9
6,942
5 ,8 6 9
7 ,1 4 9
1 2 ,3 3 7 ■
9,928
6,707
V a lu e o f • S u r p lu s f o r
A s s e t s ^ / I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
D o l.
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 6 ,4 3 3
22,366
20,998
2 1 ,5 3 8
2 2 ,0 7 8
2 9 ,1 5 5
3 0 ,5 0 0
. 2 7 ,1 3 1
2 3 ,0 6 4
1 9 ,1 7 1
1 5 ,1 0 4
1 7 ,9 2 8
1 5 ,0 7 6
1 1 ,0 0 9
6 ,9 4 2
5,869
7,149
1 2 ,3 3 7
9,928
6 ,7 0 7
1 0 .0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0.
0
9 ,1 4 3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• 0
0
0
0
0
0
2 .7 3 0
E n d in g
Inventory lti , l 47
---
1 0 ,0 0 0 - '
1 1 ,8 7 3
& The l i q u i d r e s e r v e i s h e l d a s g r a i n i n s t o r a g e w ith r e p la c e m e n t o n ly
fro m h i g h y i e l d y e a r s .
b / V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o ld . A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e i s s u b t r a c t e d e a c h y e a r .
s/
V a lu e o f t h e m a c h i n e r y , e q u ip m e n t , a n d b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f i r m and
h o u s e h o l d . O n ly t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r b u i l d i n g s an d h o u s e h o l d
e q u ip m e n t i s m ade i n t h e l a t e r y e a r s .
I
“ 1 0 3 ■”
TABLE X I V , APPENDIX C .
L iq u id
Y e a r ly
R eserve= */- S u r p lu s
P o l.
D o l.
Y ear
No.
0
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18.
19
YEAR-TO-YEAR NET WORTH OF A FARM UNIT REPRE. SENTED BY YIELD SE R IE S 1 9 , WINTER WHEAT AREA.
'
1 3 ,5 3 0
1 1 ,9 1 6
1 1 ,9 1 6
9 ,7 6 1
8 ,5 5 7
8 ,5 5 7
8 ,5 5 7
1 2 ,1 5 1
8 .5 7 7
8 .5 7 7
1 3 ,5 3 0
9 ,1 0 3
6 ,7 4 3
6 ,7 4 3
3,924
3 ,5 4 0
2,746
697
897
6.353
E n d in g
I n v e n t o r y 6 ,3 5 3
0
321
0
0
100
1 ,1 4 1
4 ,6 0 7
0
764
9,327
0
0
1 ,5 1 0
0
0
0
0
' 4 ,6 0 7
4 ,6 0 7
———
V a lu e o £ ' S u r p lu s 'foY
A s s e t s ^ / I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
P o l.
3 0 ,5 0 0
2 6 ,4 3 3
2 2 ,6 8 7
1 8 ,6 2 0
. 1 4 ,5 5 3
1 0 ,5 8 6
7 ,6 6 0
8 ,2 0 0
4 ,1 3 3
830 ,
6 ,0 9 0
2 ,0 2 3
- 2 ,0 4 4
.- 4,601
- 8 )6 6 8
- 1 2 ,7 3 5
- 1 6 ,8 0 2
- 2 0 ,8 6 9
- 20,329
- 1 9 ,7 8 9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
0
0
- 1 9 ,7 8 9
0
V a lu e o£
A s s e ts ^ /
D o l.
30,500
26,433
22,687
3 ,0 3 6
711
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
711
P
1 8 ,6 2 0
1 4 ,5 5 3
1 0 ,5 8 6
7 ,6 6 0
8 ,2 0 0
4,133
830
6 ,0 9 0
2 ,0 2 3
- 2 ,0 4 4
3,343
■-
4 ,2 0 3
5 ,0 6 3
5 ,9 2 3
6,783
•
S u r p lu s f o r
I n v e s tm e n t
D o l.
■
a / The l i q u i d r e s e r v e i s h e ld a s g r a i n i n s t o r a g e w i t h r e p la c e m e n t o n ly
from h i g h y i e l d y e a r s .
h / V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o ld .
A f u l l d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a rg e i s s u b t r a c t e d - e a c h , y e a r .
$ / V a lu e o f t h e m a c h in e r y , e q u ip m e n t, and b u i l d i n g s o f t h e f ir m and
h o u s e h o ld .
O nly t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n c h a r g e f o r b u i l d i n g s a n d h o u s e h o ld
e q u ip m e n t i s m ade i n t h e l a t e r y e a r s .
- 104- BIB LIOGBAPHI
B a r b e r , L lo y d E . , . .’'.M o d ify in g t h e F e d e r a l Incom e Tax t o P ro m o te G r e a te r
S t a b i l i t y o f Farm I n c o m e ,'* J o u r n a l o f Farm E c o n o m ic s . Volume 3 0 ,
Number 2 , H a y , 1948«
. .
...............
,H a lc ro w , H a ro ld G4., " A c t u a r i a l S t r u c t u r e s f o r C rop I n s u r a n c e , " J o u r n a l
-QjLEarm-E conom ics « Volume 3 1 , ,Number 3 , A u g u s t, 1 9 4 9 ,
H eady, E a r l O4, E c o n o m ic s o f A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c ti o n and B e s o u rn e U s e .
P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c 4, E nglew ood C l i f f s , N ew 'J e r s d y ,'' 1 9 5 2 ,
H e i s i g , C a r l P 4, "In co m e S t a b i l i t y i n H i g h - r i s k F a rm in g A r e a s ," J o u r n a l o f
Farm E c o n o m ic s . Volume 2 8 , Number 4 , N ovem ber, 1 9 4 6 ,
K i f e r , R4 S 4, an d H ^ L 4 S t e w a r t * 'F a rm in g H a z a rd s i n t h e B r o u g h t A r e a .
Wofks, Progress; Administration,'Division of Social Research,
R e s e a r c h M onograph 1 6 , U4 S 4 G overnm ent P r i n t i n g O f f i c e ,
W a s h in g to n , B 4 C4, 1 9 3 8 ,
K r i s t j a n s o n , B a ld u r H4, and E r n e s t S o l b e r g , Farm R e n t a l B a r g a in i n g i n
N o r th D a k o ta , N o r th D a k o ta A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e rim e n t S t a t i o n , '
F a r g o , N o r th D a k o ta , B u l l e t i n 3 7 2 , M arch , 1 9 5 2 ,
K r i s t j a n so n ,. B a ld u r H4,' an d J a c o b A, B row n, The F a rm e rs Home Admin­
i s t r a t i o n A p p ro a c h t o Farm C r e d i t P r o b le m s . N o r th D a k o ta
A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e r im e n t S t a t i o n , F a r g o , N o r th D a k o ta ,' B u l­
l e t i n 388, Ja n u ary , 1954,
' '
L a r s e n , H a ra i d .C4, and N e i l W..- J o h n s o n , M anaging Farm F i n a n c e s ,
U4 S 4 G overnm ent P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , W a s h in g to n '2 5 , D 4' C4,
M i s c e l l a n e o u s 'P u b l i c a t i o n Number 6 5 2 , U4 S 4 D e p a r tm e n t o f A g ri­
c u l t u r e , S e p te m b e r, 1 9 4 8 ,
N o r t h e r n G r e a t P l a i n s A g r i c u l t u r a l A d v is o ry C o u n c il, Im p ro v in g Farm
and R anch T e n u re i n t h e G r e a t P l a i n s . R e p o r t Number I- o f t h e
T e n u re C o m m itte e , M ontana A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p erim en t" S t a t i o n ,
B ozem an, M o n ta n a , B u l l e t i n 4 3 6 ," J u l y , . 1 9 4 6 ,
S c h i c k e l s , R a i n e r , "F arm B u s i n e s s S u r v i v a l U nder E x tre m e W e a th e r ,R is k s ,"
J o u r n a l o f F arm E c o n o m ic s . P r o c e e d i n g s Num ber, Volume 3 1 , Number 4 ,
N ovem ber> 1 9 4 9 ,
S c h i e k e l e , R a i n e r , " F a rm e rs A d a p t a ti o n s t o Incom e U n c e r t a i n t y , " J o u r n a l
o f Farm E c o n o m ic s . Volume 3 2 / Number 3 , A u g u s t, 1 9 5 0 ,
S c h i c k e l e , R a i n e r , " L i v e s t o c k a s Incom e S t a b i l i z e r , " B im o n th ly B u l l e t i n .
Volume 1 2 , Number 6 , J u ly - A u g u s t , 1 9 5 0 ,
-
105
S c h i c k e l e , R a i n e r , " V a r i a b i l i t y o f N o r th D a k o ta Farm In c o m e ," B im o n th ly
B u l l e t i n . Volume 1 1 ,/ J u ly - A u g u s t , 1 9 4 9 .
S lo cu m , W a lt e r L . , The I n f l u e n c e o f T e n u re S t a t u s Upon Rnrml Tnfft in
Eaat_ern.-S Q uth .D a k o ta , . S o u th D a k o ta A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e r im e n t S t a t i o n ,
B r o o k in g s , S o u th D ak o ta', C i r c u l a r 3 9 , May, 1942.,
T a e u b e r , C o n ra d , and C a r l C. T a y lo r , The P e o p le o f t h e D ro u g h t S t a t e s .
W orks P r o g r e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , D i v i s i o n o f S o c i a l R e s e a r c h ,
....
S e r i e s 5 , N u m ber.2 , W a s h in g to n ,..!), C . , M arch, 1 9 3 7 .
T h a i r , P h i l i p J . . S t a b i l i z i n g Farm Incom e A g a in s t C rop Y i e ld
F l u c t u a t i o n s . "N o rth D a k o ta A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e rim e n t' S t a t i o n ,
F a r g o , N o r th D a k o ta , B u l l e t i n 3 6 2 , S e p te m b e r, 1 9 5 0 .
T h a i r , P h i l i p J . , M e e tin g t h e Im p a c t o f C r o p - Y ie ld R is k s i n G r e a t
P j a i n s F a rm in g , N o r th D a k o ta A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e rim e n t S t a t i o n ,
F a r g o , N o r th D a k o ta , B u l l e t i n 3 9 2 , J u n e , 1954,.
U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e , A g r i c u l t u r a l P r i c e a n d C o st
.... P r o j e c t i o n s , , W a s h in g to n , D. C , , S e p te m b e r, .195.7.
The F u t u r e o f t h e G r e a t P l a i n s . R e p o r t o f t h e G r e a t P l a i n s C o m m itte e ,
■U. S . G overnm ent P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , W a s h in g to n , D . C ., D e c e m b e r, 1936
MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES
762 1001 4330 2
»
N378
H643u
cop.2
eearmct^wwiiW6-
136405
Hjort, H. W.
The use and e ffectiv en ess of
■ * and physical reserves
NOV 2
'A
Qjj 'J %
tit •
i-c
n
if- ~j /..
IP' ^ f JV
./■
8AS1 WOiiFt,*
I - IC jl
136405