Structuring a Strategic Vision for
the United States in the War on
Terrorism
….work in progress
16 June 2003
1
Define “Strategic”…
…in the Context of the War on Terrorism
“Strategic” from
from the
the Dictionary:
Dictionary:
“Strategic”
• Of great importance to an integrated
whole; striking at the sources of an
enemy’s military, economic, or political
power. Webster’s New-Collegiate Dictionary
• Essential in war.
Concise Oxford Dictionary
2
Strategic Objective: Reduce the Risk to the United
States from Terrorism
Reduce Risk
Risk from
from
Reduce
Terrorism
Terrorism
Offense
Offense
Defense
Defense
Active
Active
Passive
Passive
3
Terrorism Risk Reduction - Strategic Components
Reduce Risk
Risk
Reduce
from Terrorism
Terrorism
from
ReduceTerrorist
Terrorist
Reduce
Threat
Threat
Reduce Vulnerability to
Terrorism
Hardento
to
Harden
Terrorism
Terrorism
Day-to-Day
Day-to-Day
Hardento
to
Harden
Terrorismon
on
Terrorism
Warning
Warning
4
Five Domains of Terrorism-Related Activities
AWARENESS
Analyze
Assess
Advise
Predict
Monitor
Forecast
Detect
Intel
HSAS
Threat
Levels
PREVENT
Detect
Mitigate
Interdict
Immunize
Investigate
Quarantine
Protect
Preempt
Disrupt
Deter
Defend
Intel
PREPARE
Train
Equip
Exercise
Stockpile
Readiness
Pre-deploy
Credential
Evaluate
Develop
Test
Shelter
Evacuate
RESPOND
Rescue
Save lives
E
Protect
V
Property
E
N
Protect
T
Environment
Investigate
RECOVER
Restore
Return to
normal
Reconstitute
Rebuild
Cleanup
Prosecute
5
Adaptation of National Response
Plan Definitions
•
•
•
•
•
Awareness – Activities designed to increase basic terrorism-related
knowledge (including the identity, classification, and evaluation of potential
threats) and aid in anticipating [near-term] threats.
Prevention – Activities that aim to detect or identify specific terrorist attacks
(or types of terrorist attacks) and effectively deter, discourage, interdict,
disrupt, [mitigate,] or defend against such attacks.
Preparation – Activities that seek to increase readiness and the ability to
mitigate or more effectively defend against terrorist attacks to include
reducing vulnerabilities and well-designed training, equipping, exercising of
key individuals and organizations.
Response – Post-event activities to include rescuing of victims and saving
lives, limiting physical and environmental damage, and immediate incident
investigation to reduce the likelihood or impact of further attacks.
Recovery – Post-event and post-response activities to restore or reconstitute
those physical assets and capabilities lost or damaged in a terrorist attack to
the pre-attack state and reestablish to the degree possible the local and
national [psychological] conditions that prevailed prior to the attack.
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Terrorism Scenarios/Attacks of Major Concern
Nuclear
Detonation
(Case 1: 15)
(Case 2:
100’s)
• Prompt
Destruction
• Spacially
limited
impacts
• Alternate C2
Sites
•
•
•
Dirty Bomb
(Case 1: 1)
(Case 2: 1-5)
Biological
Weapon
Chemical
Weapon
Traditional
(High
Explosive)
Terrorism
Prompt and
persisting
effects
Widely
dispersed
impacts
Risk
management
challenge tied
to: (1). Panic
in short-term
and (2) Decontamination
in long-term
•
•
Combined
attack with
catastrophic
effects
•
•
Wide area
impacts
Acute shortterm Public
Health
challenges
Long-term
key site decontaminatio
n
Wide area
impacts
• Acute shortterm Public
Health
challenges
• Long-term
key site decontaminatio
n
Combined attack
with catastrophic
effects
7
8
A Path to a Consensus Strategic Vision
Domains of Terrorism Risk Reduction
Alternative
Integrated
Strategic
Visions
#1
Awareness
Prevention Preparation Response Recovery
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•‘
•
#2
#3
9