A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 1 A Multi-Dimensional Model of Participatory Constitution Making and Legitimacy Devra C. Moehler & Eleanor Marchant Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania Abstract Over the last few decades, interest in participatory constitution making increased dramatically, in large part because citizen involvement is thought to enhance constitutional legitimacy. However, there is no consensus about the form that participation should take. We identify at least three key dimensions along which participatory constitution-making processes differ from one another: 1) the extent of mass citizen involvement in the process; 2) the degree of elite polarization; and 3) the level of citizen access to information. We develop a model describing how these three dimensions can affect constitutional legitimacy, and we illustrate the model using case studies of ostensibly participatory constitution-making processes in three East African countries: Uganda, Kenya and Somalia. The model is consistent with the widespread belief that a highly participatory process can, at times, lead to an increase in public approval for the constitution. However, we argue that the benefits of mass involvement are contingent on elite consensus and citizen exposure to positive information about the process and the outcome. Our central argument is that the effects of citizen participation cannot be studied in isolation; the interactions between the three dimensions shape citizen perceptions of constitutional legitimacy. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY A Multi-Dimensional Model of Participatory Constitution Making and Legitimacy Leaders in new or transitional states often initiate constitution-making processes in order to legitimize themselves as rulers of a sovereign democratic nation. The number of new constitutions being written and old constitutions being rewritten proliferated over the last few decades. In the 25 years between 1990 and 2005, 108 new constitutions were adopted in 83 different countries (Elkins, Ginsburg, & Melton, 2007-2011). In response to these trends, a number of academic and development practitioners have sought to characterize various constitution-making processes around the world in order to identify best practices for making or remaking constitutions. i Many constitutions, such as the US and the post-WWII German constitutions, were written by elites in closed session far from public view so as to encourage reflection and compromise by those who were invited to the table. The conventional view was that a constitution should be judged democratic according to the nature of its provisions, not by the manner in which it was created. However, the rise in the number of new constitutions since the early 1990s has been accompanied by a similarly dramatic rise in the belief that public participation in constitution-making process is necessary for the outcome to be considered legitimate. In Africa, authoritarian leaders of newly independent states increasingly sought to control, contain and limit public involvement. However, by the early 1990s many democratization movements involved National Conferences, which allowed a diverse array of 2 A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 3 stakeholders in the process of constructing a new system of government. While these National Conferences did not always include the writing of a new constitution, and many were eventually captured by elites, the high level of initial civic engagement did set a precedent for public participation in transitions and other nation defining events on the continent. The success of the highly participatory 1993 post-apartheid constitution-making process in South Africa demonstrated the feasibility and desirability of involving the public in the creation of a country’s constitution. This demonstration and many others seem to have cumulatively succeeded in shifting accepted practice away from the older closed approach. Over 40 percent of the constitutions currently in force around the world required public approval through some form of a public referendum (Elkins, Ginsburg, & Blount, 2008, p. 377). Opinions have shifted to such an extent that legal scholars and advisors now argue that participation and a high degree of transparency are international norms for constitution making (Frank & Thiruvengadam, 2010). ii Despite the widespread acceptance of such norms, the ways in which members of the public are engaged in constitution-making processes vary widely. The method and intensity of public engagement range from ‘downstream’ engagement (Elster, 1995) through a public referendum on the final document to ‘upstream’ engagement through the election of members of a Constituent Assembly, and from direct engagement through consultation during the drafting phases to indirect engagement through civic education programs. A growing body of academic and practitioner research on the subject has emerged, particularly in the last 10 years, but there is not yet a consensus about what level and method of engagement will produce the most desirable outcomes. And within this body of literature, there is little empirical work that might allow us to build a larger evidentiary base with which to make claims about the effects of various methods of participation. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 4 In order to develop an empirically grounded model of participatory constitution making we draw on Moehler’s (2008) research on Uganda along with evidence on constitution-making processes elsewhere in Africa. We identify three dimensions of participatory constitution making that, we argue, interact with one another to effect public perceptions of constitutional legitimacy. These dimensions are: 1) the degree of direct mass citizen involvement in the process, 2) the extent of elite support for the constitution, and 3) the level of citizen access to information. After describing our model about how the three dimensions interact to affect citizen attitudes, we conduct a three country comparative analysis of Uganda, Kenya and Somalia to illustrate the usefulness of the model. Theories of Legitimacy The literature on participatory constitution making focuses on a variety of outcomes but most address questions about what kinds of participation produce either the most appropriate constitutional document, or the most legitimate document in the eyes of the public. iii Admittedly, the two are not mutually exclusive; a constitution that is egalitarian and represents the various interests within the society may increase the likelihood that it is seen as legitimate. But existing research suggests that they can also be conflicting; a transparent constitution-making process might be more likely to result in a constitution that much of the public sees as legitimate (Wing, 2010), but it might also result in a higher degree of grandstanding and polarization among the members of the Constituent Assembly with potentially deleterious consequences for the quality of the constitution (Elster, 1995). Similarly, a constitution that is written with a high degree of international involvement might be intrinsically “good” according to standards of international law, but might lack legitimacy in the eyes of local citizens who feel it was imposed from the outside. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 5 For the purposes of our study, we have chosen to focus on perceived legitimacy as the key outcome of interest. We are primarily interested in the role of mass participation in constitution-making processes within potentially emerging democracies. In countries emerging from conflict or the shadow of authoritarian rule, previous exposure to democratic principles is often limited and new democratic institutions may be very fragile. Understanding of, and respect for, the new legal structures encapsulated in a new constitution can outweigh the importance of an ideal constitution on paper. Furthermore, many practitioners leading and designing participatory constitution-making projects in Africa have designed them to be broadly participatory with the specific goal of developing widespread public support for the new constitution (Moehler, 2008, p. 143; see also Odoki 2001). Consequently, it is important to see if these processes are having the influence on legitimacy that practitioners expect. In response, we develop a model about how three dimensions of participation might affect perceived constitutional legitimacy. Our goal is to help scholars and practitioners theorize about potential outcomes of the various participatory models that exist. We do not claim that our model will be able to predict outcomes across all situations. Context varies widely and also matters greatly. For example, in long-standing democracies childhood socialization helps to ensure that citizens view their constitution as legitimate and worthy of adherence and protection (Tyler, Casper, & Fisher, 1989), while such norms are weak in countries with recent experiences under oppressive and corrupt leaders. Instead, we hope to help country experts think about how different dimensions of participation might enhance or reduce perceived legitimacy in a given context. After explaining the model, we illustrate its applicability to three particular, though still varied, East African countries. We hope that the dimensions we identify can lay the groundwork for future empirical work on the causes of constitutional legitimacy in emerging democracies. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 6 We build off Moehler’s (2008) research on the highly participatory and quite lengthy constitution-making process in Uganda from 1988 to 1995. Her study employed a mixedmethods approach that combined survey analysis with in-depth interviews to examine the individual-level effects of direct participation in the process. While her study isolated a variety of different outcome variables, including democratic attitudes, political capabilities, institutional trust, political knowledge, constitutional knowledge, she also looked specifically at constitutional legitimacy. iv Her research compared perceived constitutional legitimacy among individuals who participated in the constitution-making process with those who did not, taking into account the characteristics that might have led individuals to participate in the first place (Moehler, 2008, p. 212). We use here research and that of others as a springboard for the development of our model. 1. Mass Public Participation and Influence Somewhat surprisingly, Moehler’s analysis suggests that participants in the Ugandan constitution-making process were not more supportive of the constitution than non-participants, as the international norm in favor of participation would lead us to expect. In fact, she found that “the relationship between participation and support for the constitution is weak, inconsistent, fragile, and often indistinguishable from zero.” (Moehler, 2008, pp. 157-158). Based on the full set of results, she conclude that “citizens who are involved in constitution making are more likely to know and care about the constitution; however, participation does not automatically confer constitutional legitimacy” (Moehler, 2008, p. 10). It is important to keep in mind that the survey in Moehler’s study isolated the effect of participation on the individuals who participated, not the effect of a participatory constitution-making process on mass public opinion. Intriguingly, comparing comparable measures of constitutional support across eight African countries, v including South Africa, she found that popular support for the new constitution in Uganda was A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 7 the highest. That South Africa’s constitution-making process was the only one that rivaled Uganda’s in the extent of public participation indicates that the degree of public participation might have played a role in this result. The model we develop here illustrates why involving citizens in the Ugandan constitution-making process may have increased citizen support for the constitution in the aggregate, even though participants were not more supportive than nonparticipants at the individual level. Other studies of constitution-making processes also discuss the degree of public participation on legitimacy perceptions. Many of these are practitioner guides taking lessons from previous cases of public engagement to best practices for other polities. vi One of the principal arguments in these studies is that a constitution is less likely to garner public approval when it is perceived as being imposed on the people from unpopular domestic rulers, or by unfamiliar international actors. Furthermore, most of the literature argues that processes involving more people are less likely to be perceived as imposed from above or abroad (Samuels, 2005). In short, citizen perception of which actors were influential during the process is as important for legitimacy as who actually determined the content of the constitution. Others in this area have attempted to isolate the effect of a particular kind of public engagement, such as Elkins, Ginsburg and Blount’s (2008) academic study on the impact of referendums, or Yash Ghai’s (2006) practitioner’s perspective on the role and design of Constituent Assemblies. They consider the effect of elections of Constituent Assembly members before the constitution-making process begins or direct public contribution to these Assemblies during the drafting phase. Elkins, Ginsburg & Blount (2008) found that increasing the number of participants seemed to increase the likelihood of federalism in the resulting governance structure and that it might complicate the necessary bargaining and negotiating processes making them A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 8 more extensive and more intensive (Elkins, Ginsburg, & Blount, 2008, p. 371). One of the clearest clues to the specific impact of participation on legitimacy comes from the comprehensive work of Jennifer Widner on participatory processes in post-conflict states where she found evidence that public consultation can play a legitimating role, at least when there is the appearance of listening to the views expressed (Widner, 2008). From the studies discussed, we can identify a spectrum of mass public participation based on how much of an influence the public is able to have on the content of the constitution. At the high end of the spectrum is extensive involvement where frequent and direct consultation with the mass public occurs and constitution writers take this input directly into account when drafting the constitution. At the low end of the spectrum is apparent involvement, usually taking the form of informational or civic education campaigns that give the appearance of public participation but where citizens do not actually influence the content. Various levels of involvement exist between these two extremes, including open elections for members of the Constituent Assembly, referenda, or direct, but infrequent, consultation during the drafting phase. Although processes along the entire spectrum of public involvement are typically grouped together under the label “participatory”, we argue that where a process falls along the spectrum is a key factor that will help to determine whether the new constitution will be accepted and respected by the public. In short, the first of our three dimensions affecting perceived legitimacy of a new constitution is the degree of citizen influence during the constitution-making process Yet the complexities of the results from Moehler’s (2008) and a few other studies indicate that other factors are important as well. We argue that processes can be further distinguished by the extent of elite support for the constitution, and the amount of information that citizens are exposed to about the constitution-making process and its content. These A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 9 additional factors also influence whether the final document will be viewed as legitimate by the general public once the process is over. We now turn to the second of our three dimensions of participatory processes. 2. Elite Support for the Constitution Moehler’s (2008) research explains the apparent disjuncture between the finding of no effect of participation on perceived legitimacy at the individual-level and the national-level results of greater support for the new constitution in Uganda compared to other countries in the region. Her evidence showed a correlation between the views of local leaders and the views of the public in different parts of Uganda. Where local leaders favored the new constitution, so did their constituents, and where local leaders were opposed, so did the local public. Based on these findings coupled with qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews, Moehler argues that the views of the leaders active in a given area shaped citizen evaluation of both the constitution-making process and the constitution, rather than individual’s actual participation (Moehler, 2008, p. 160). Where local leaders were positive, so were the citizen and where local leaders were against the constitution, so were the citizens. Importantly, more local leaders were in favor of the constitution thus leading to overall high levels of support among the populous. Local elites probably had such a strong influence on citizen attitudes because Ugandans had little constitutional knowledge prior to the process, and because of the limited reach of private media at the time; citizens had little alternative sources of information with which to form independent perspectives about the process and the resulting constitution. As a result, the majority of the information they did receive during the process, whether they were directly involved or not, came predominantly from their local leaders. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 10 A second pertinent finding is that the existence of widespread mass public consultation during Uganda’s constitution-making process actually served to increase polarization of public attitudes about the constitution because of elite polarization. Specifically, Moehler argues that “the public’s formal involvement in the making of a new constitution created incentives for leaders to convey their opinions to their constituents, to convince citizens to share their view, and to mobilize the public in support of or in opposition to certain constitutional provision” (Moehler, 2008, p. 166). Elites actively mobilized citizens in defense of or in opposition to the constitution so as to secure their party preferred outcomes. Elites divided along partisan lines thus divided citizens according to where they lived. Moehler’s (2008) finding that there is a relationship between mass public participation elite polarization and in constitution making is not unique in the literature. Elster (1995) developed a distinction between ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ influences on constitution makers that we have referred to earlier. Public involvement later in the process, through a public referendum for example, creates downstream pressures on constitution makers who must either tailor a constitution to the demands of this approval process or influence the opinions of the electorate to support their own position. Elster argued that particularly where political leaders and involved in the drafting of the constitution, these downstream pressures lead to grandstanding by drafters and to a deterioration in their ability to negotiate and compromise on provisions in the constitution because they “will feel the need to signal positions to their constituents outside the process, potentially leading to more extreme positions” (Elster, 1995, p. 388). More recently, Blount, Elkins and Ginsburg (2012) used cross-national data from their Comparative Constitutions Project to test the effects of referenda and found support for the argument that public referenda could serve as downstream constraints, particularly for “non- A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 11 authoritarian drafting processes”(p. 54). Nathan Brown (2008) has similarly argued that constitution-making processes that purport to engage the mass public can often be coopted by self-interested politicians rather than actually producing a constitution that represents the “will of the people”. Based on existing literature, we hypothesize that popular elites opposed to the constitution will generate greater public opposition to the constitution. In contrast, when most elites are unified in their support of the new constitution, we expect them to generate greater constitutional approval among citizens. Elite unity may at first seem unlikely in new democracies where different political actors are vying for power, but there is evidence that elites may provide a united front after periods of conflict, particularly under international pressure, as was the case in the post-apartheid South Africa or in Kenya after the violence in 2007 and 2008. Furthermore, we also expect a reinforcing cycle of effects on elite constitutional support and broad mass participation in constitution-making. Specifically, in contexts where there is a high degree of mass public participation, particularly in the form of downstream pressures, this could lead to a polarization of elite opinion through grandstanding, which could in turn lead to polarization of citizen attitudes about the constitution. Where opposition elites are in the majority, public participation can actually lead to an average decline in public approval for the constitution. 3. Citizen Access to and Exposure to Information The third dimension we consider is citizen exposure to information about the constitution-making process and the resulting constitution. There are reasons to expect that variety and availability of information sources have important implications for citizen perception A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 12 about the degree to which the constitution reflects citizen interests. In the Ugandan case, Moehler (2008) found that access to information, or more specifically the lack of access to information, also had a part to play in the relationship between elite opinion and mass public participation. During in-depth interviews, respondents often complained that they were not given the opportunity to read the constitution so they had a hard time judging the final outcome for themselves. Many said that their main sources of information about the outcomes of the participatory constitution-making process were their local delegate to the Constituent Assembly (Moehler, 2008, p. 163). This meant, as we observed earlier, that citizens often lacked access to more than one source of information or more than one perspective about the constitution. Exposure to a diversity of sources should allow citizens to form independent attitudes about the constitution, while exposure to homogenous perspectives causes citizens to follow the lead of their local elites. In the early 90s Uganda, there were some additional sources of information about the process, beyond Constituent Assembly delegates. However, alternative accounts were typically hard to come by, particularly as access to private news media was often limited. When delegates were not available, respondents in Moehler’s (2008) study reported that they learned about the process and the constitution from local council and government officials, active and educated community members, and the leaders of organizations active in their communities. Crucially, she also found through her survey analysis, that the variable measuring the extent to which individuals follow public affairs had a consistent and significant positive effect. This meant that citizens who reported following public affairs were significantly more supportive of the constitution across all the measures of support, regardless of location. Moehler (2008) theorized that more active news consumers may have been exposed to more government pronouncements A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 13 about the positive value of the constitution than those who did not search out alternative sources (p. 158). Exposure to multiple and varied sources of information (whether actively sought or incidental) during a constitution-making process is increasing over time as journalists, civil society leaders, politicians, international development practitioners, civic education organizers and constitution makers take advantage of new communication technologies. In Kenya, for example, members of the Constituent Assembly frequently appeared on chat and call-in shows on television and radio to talk about the constitution and the process (Cottrell & Ghai, 2007, p. 10). In Somalia, the final vote of the Constituent Assembly was televised live on all of the major satellite stations. Many constitutional debates in other post-conflict settings are increasingly being broadcasted nationwide (Banks, 2007). While access to news media continues to be more limited in rural areas than in plugged in urban centers, the increase in mobile phone and FM radio access in remote areas makes access to information easier, even in rural villages (Anderson, 2007; Hermanns, 2008). This technological trend can lead to an n increase in transparency during constitutionmaking processes, often resisted by elites and constitution makers (Benomar, 2004). According to Frank and Thiruvengadam (2010) there is now an international norm of transparency in addition to international norm of public participation in constitution making. For our purposes, it is useful to think of transparency as an increase in direct coverage of the constitution-making process, like live coverage of debates in Constituent Assemblies or footage of town hall meetings where citizens can voice their opinions. Evidence suggests that participation, particularly direct consultation with members of the public, increases citizens’ knowledge about the constitutionmaking process, (Finkel & Smith, 2011; Moehler, 2008;). We should expect that with current A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 14 increases in transparency, more citizens could become observers of the process and thus increase their knowledge about the nature of the constitution-making process. There is also an increasing trend within constitution-making processes to included formal civic education components. Of the 194 cases of constitution making that USIP has collected data on, 25 percent included civic education programs funded by the government and 10 percent had civic education programs led by NGOs (Hart, 2010, p. 37). Practitioner guides, such as those from IDEA (Ghai 2006; Ghai and Galli 2006; Samuels, 2006) and iterpeace (2011), now advise the inclusion of civic education programs. Particularly in places where existing democratic knowledge is low, advocates for civic education campaigns believe they can successfully educate the public about both overarching constitutional principles and the more nuanced details of the drafting process, so as to enable them to better participate in the constitution-making process and to be more engaged democrats once the process is over (Benomar, 2004, p. 88; Finkel & Smith, 2011). It is useful to think of these civic education campaigns as a sort of indirect source of information about a constitution-making process compared to the more direct information from an increase in transparency involving observation of the process itself. As such, the authors behind these projects are of particular importance. According to the comprehensive interpeace guide published in 2011, it is common for organizers of civic education campaigns to rely heavily on independent media where available. Where a constitution-making body has more funds at its disposal, it might produce its own information campaigns and use traditional media outlets, or increasingly social media, to disseminate them (Brandt, Cottrell, Ghai, & Regan, 2011, p. 97). In Vivien Hart’s (2010) account of civic education projects in South Africa, media campaigns included “a weekly radio program with 10 million listeners; a weekly constituent A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 15 assembly newsletter, Constitutional Talk, with a circulation of 160,000; colorful ads on buses; talk lines; and an open phone line and website” (p. 38). They reportedly reached 73 percent of adult South Africans (Hart, 2010, p. 38). Constitution making, and particularly such extensive civic education campaigns, can be expensive and Brandt et al (2011, p. 88) find that this means that many of them are funded either directly or indirectly by Western governments As a result, they often include norms and practices from Western democracies for their content. Crucially, the authors of civic education campaigns most affect the content of the campaigns. vii Yash Ghai (2006, p. 25) argues that there is an inherent bias on the part of any entity that engages in civic education projects. The bias is important because it is conveying important information to a wide range of people at such a crucial time in the political history of a country. As a result, he strongly advises against Constituent Assemblies organizing the civic education campaigns because this has the potential to denigrate into manipulation on the part of Constituent delegates. This is not so different from the Ugandan context where local Constituent Assembly delegates were the primary sources of information about the constitution for citizens. The monopolization of information creates a problematic link between the opinions of the information providers and the opinions of the public. Steven Finkel, for example, shows that civic education efforts in South Africa led to higher levels of trust than in the Dominican Republic because in South Africa organizers of civic education projects largely favored the new constitution while those in the Dominican Republic were more critical (Finkel, 2003, pp. 141142). Ghai advises that the most effective solution to counteract the effects of bias would be for multiple entities to engage in civic education efforts, particularly civil society organizations representing the various interests at stake in the new document (2006, p. 25). Hart similarly argued that media campaigns and ad hoc independent information initiatives from non- A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 16 governmental entities may be just as significant in getting information to the public about constitution-making processes as official government information campaigns (2010, p. 38). Empirical evidence about the impact of transparency and the proliferation of information sources on citizens, and more specifically, on their propensity to view a new constitution as legitimate, is still limited, but the literature does suggest some key considerations. Elster (1995) finds that an increase in transparency heightens the tendency of elites to grandstand, while Brown (2008) similarly argues that transparency can lead elites to focus on building support for their position among their base instead of appealing to the broader public (p. 697). These findings suggest that where transparency is high polarization among the elite will also be high. In what seems to be a contrast to these findings, Jennifer Widner’s (2008) work on constitution making in post conflict countries shows that increasing transparency and allowing members of the public to play the observer role at multiple stages throughout the process, could contribute to constitutional legitimacy. She argues that allowing a broader array of citizens to observe a participatory process can heighten the perception that diverse views are being heard. In response citizens viewers will feel that the process is more participatory and will thus be more likely to support the outcome. Intriguingly, the positive effect on constitutional approval might actually stay high if the information available makes the public feel like the process is participatory and citizen voices and opinions are being heard, even if drafters of the constitution do not actually take their opinions into account. In sum, existing empirical work on the subject suggests that our third dimension, access to information about the constitution-making process, does influence how the public views the constitution. But the effect is not straightforward and depends on what form that information takes (direct or indirect), and who controls it. We think the effect of information also depends on A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 17 our other two dimensions. For example, an increase in transparency might lead to an increase in support for the new constitution if the information reveals a participatory process, or a decrease in support if it reveals political capture. As such, we argue that it is the interactions between these three dimensions that will help us determine whether the public will accept a new constitution as legitimate, and that will form the basis of our own model of constitutional legitimacy. Proposed Multi-Dimensional Model Based on our review of extant theoretical and empirical literature, we now propose a multi-dimensional model of how citizen support for the constitution is likely to be affected by the following three dimensions of the constitution-making process: a) mass public participation, b) elite support, and c) citizen exposure to information. Our model first begins with preliminary hypotheses based on the first two dimensions: a) Public participation exacerbates elite polarization by causing grandstanding. b) Transparency exacerbates elite polarization by causing grandstanding. c) Elite support for a new constitution increases perceived constitutional legitimacy among the general public. d) Public participation strengthens the relationship between elite opinion and citizen perception of constitutional legitimacy. e) Citizen exposure to diverse sources of information weakens the relationship between elite opinion and citizen perception of constitutional legitimacy. f) Public participation increases perceived constitutional legitimacy among the general public when sources report that participant input affected constitutional content. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 18 g) Transparency increases perceived constitutional legitimacy among the general public when the elite capture of the process is constrained. We use the following case studies to illustrate the components of our hypothesized model. Case Studies Uganda With our model’s predictions in mind, we return to the case of constitution making in Uganda. Of our three countries, the constitution-making process in Uganda was the most participatory. A committee of experts tasked with drafting the constitution actively sought public contributions and recommendations and engaged in public education about democratic principles and constitution making, and the public had the power to vote in members of a Constituent Assembly who would ultimately ratify the new document. Although there was disagreement, the majority of political elites supported the new constitution and due to a lack of diverse sources of information the public largely followed the opinions of their leaders. As a result, there was public opposition to the new constitution where there was elite opposition, but on the whole there was broad support for the new constitution and for the new political system that it helped to bring about. A more detailed look at the context will help us to understand how these various pieces fell into place. The first Ugandan constitution was put in place by the British upon the country’s independence in 1962. While the document itself was ostensibly democratic, it represented colonial rule that excluded the general population. Post-independence leaders, Milton Obote and Idi Amin who ruled for much of the next 20 years, disregarded the document entirely, or dictated amendments that consolidated executive power (1967) and banned opposition parties (1969). They ran the A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 19 country by force, using increasingly brutal and repressive tactics and undermining the rule of law. Museveni’s Popular Resistance Army, which later became the National Resistance Movement (NRM), was among the guerrilla movements that formed in opposition to the rigged election, government corruption, political manipulation of sectarian interests, and gross human rights abuses of the second Obote government in the 1980s. In 1986, the NRM seized control of the Ugandan government. They recognized the authority of the 1967 constitution, but also suspended certain parts to legitimize their forceful acquisition of power and to maintain strict limitations on political party activity, which they argued had exacerbated ethnic and religious sectarian tensions under the previous regimes (Moehler, 2008, p. 47). This turbulent, undemocratic, and violent history left the population with little or no knowledge of, or attachment to, democratic constitutional principles; many younger Ugandans had not even heard of a constitution until after Museveni came to power. Under Museveni, political conditions initially improved; despite the “no-party” system Museveni built a broad-based government that included members of opposition groups. The constitution-making process was part of a larger impetus toward building legitimacy through a democratic framework of governance. It was slow to get off the ground despite Museveni’s rhetorical emphasis on its importance, and the participatory model of constitution making only developed gradually over time. While there was initially much public disagreement about the exact kind of participation that should be involved, in 1988 Museveni opted for a 21member Ugandan Constitutional Commission (UCC) to draft the constitution over 2 years. Although the commissioners, finally appointed in 1989, came from different regions, religions and sectors of Ugandan society, the government-controlled method of appointment fueled speculation that the commissioners were aligned with or beholden to the president. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 20 Once operations got underway the UCC laid the groundwork for a much more extensive public consultation process than had initially been envisioned including an expanded program of public education. The eventual process included two-day commissioner-led seminars in each district attended by 10,037 people, during which they solicited views from the public and instructed them about how the constitution-making process would proceed. Moehler’s study shows that, although extensive in comparative terms, the UCC activities included a minority of citizens: Only 4.9 percent of survey respondents reporting that they had participated in this phase of the process (Moehler, 2008, p. 57). The district seminars were followed by two-day seminars with government employees and civil society groups, and a civic education program that included 40 radio programs, 20 television programs, and 15 press conferences about the constitution, the distribution of pamphlets to inform the public of the process. The UCC also collected constitutional recommendations from various sectors of society. In total, the commission received 25,547 submissions (Moehler, 2008, p. 57). After this extensive consultation phase, the UCC persuaded a reluctant Museveni that a separate Constitutional Assembly (CA) would be needed to ratify the draft constitution they’d produced. The UCC argued that the constitution would not be seen as legitimate if it was ratified by Parliament, which had already overstayed its interim mandate. 75 percent of the 288 delegates to the CA were elected by universal suffrage, and the remaining quarter of the seats were reserved for special groups including women, trade unions, political parties, the National Youth Council, the National Union of Disabled Persons, and presidential appointees (Moehler, 2008, p. 60). An estimated 87 percent of registered voters turned out to vote in March 1994 with roughly two thirds of the seats going to those who claimed to support the Movement. Despite a statute constraining party activity leading up to the CA elections, many ignored the rule. Following the A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 21 election, delegates to the CA hotly contested many of the provisions in the draft and actively disseminated information about their perspective on the constitution to their constituents. Though there had been a government and civil society led education campaign, the information most citizens received at this point came from their delegates. While the constitution-making process was initially supposed to be accomplished during an interim period of four years, it ended up lasting until 1995, nine years after the NRM took power. It also cost tens of millions of dollars, much of which was paid by external donors. Indications are that most Ugandans think the process was representative and conducted in a free and fair manner. Yet the process also had critics who claimed that UCC commissioners biased the submission system by using misleading questions to guide submissions and by collecting views through the pro-NRM local government council system. They also argued that the NRM had campaigned as a political party, sometimes using government resources, during the CA elections despite the official ban on political party activity. The Ugandan cases shows how public support for the constitution resulted from interaction between our three dimensions. There was an extensive process of direct public consultation that seems to have contributed to the content of the final constitution and that the public largely believed had been conducted freely. Organizers and civil society groups both led various civic education campaigns, but they do not appear to have penetrated widely, and elites were largely able to control the information in their district. This control of information meant that public opinion followed elite opinion and while there was polarization among those elites largely based on their support of Museveni and the NRM, delegates who supported the new document outnumbered those who opposed it. In the end, it was the large majority of elites who supported for the new constitution, combined with the resulting public perception that the A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 22 process had been largely free and participatory that ensured majority public approval. Though a minority of elites and citizens were strongly opposed to the process and the resulting document, the majority opinion pervaded. Kenya Our model’s relevance to Kenya is best understood if we divide constitution-making exercises into two separate but related periods: 1) a failed constitution-making process that ended in 2005 when the government proposed constitution was rejected by 58 percent of voters, and 2) a successful process that ended in 2010 with 67 percent approval in a referendum on a new and different constitution. Why was there such a different response to the two documents? A look at the two cases will show that despite taking place in the same country, the two processes differed quite clearly along our three dimensions. The first process began with a high level of public participation but was eventually, and quite publicly, captured by President Kibaki and his supporters in Parliament. This led to extensive and vocal opposition to the draft constitution among political elites. A diverse and critical press also ensured that the public was aware of this opposition. By contrast, after violence split the country following a failed election in 2007, the second process included elites from both sides and significant international oversight. Elites emerged from the negotiations united in support of the new constitution and the peace process. In response to the elite consensus, private media was more inclined to support peace and unity than draw attention to potential problems of the proposed constitution. Kenya I. Kenya’s initial constitution was put in place by the British at the end of colonial rule in 1963. It had been updated and amended by ensuing presidents to silence the opposition and centralize power. While the post-colonial history of Kenya did not see the level of violence that Uganda’s did, it too operated as a one party state until President Daniel arap Moi bowed to A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 23 domestic and international pressure and amended the existing constitution to allow for a multiparty system. Even after the advent of multiparty competition, repression and domination of the country’s political system allowed Moi to win both the 1992 and the subsequent 1997 elections. Grassroots advocacy for a new constitution began before 1992 when activists calling for a multiparty system also called for a reformation of the country’s repressive legal system (Bannon, 2007). Reform of the constitution became a focus for democratization advocates. This movement finally gained a foothold after the 1997 election when the Constitution of Kenya Review Act was first passed and began to gain momentum in 2001 when the act was amended compelling the review of the existing constitution and setting a goal for the eventual drafting of a new document. The Act stated that the process was to include public consultation with an initial drafting by a small Review Commission, followed by direct review of the draft by a broad National Conference, and ultimate ratification by Parliament. The Act emphasized the importance of public consultation and the plans laid out for the National Conference were particularly impressive. It was to comprise 629 delegates including: commissioners from the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission tasked with writing the original draft as nonvoting members; every member of Parliament; representatives from all of the districts and political parties in the country; and representatives from religious, professional and other civic society organizations (Bannon, 2007, p. 1833). The President was expressly prohibited from participating and MPs were to make up less than half of all Conference participants, which is only partially consistent with Elster’s (1995) advice that members of the existing government should be omitted from the constitution-making process to minimize selfdealing. However, this did not prevent then president Mwai Kibaki from involving himself in the A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 24 process. Instead of holding the National Conference as initially planned in October 2002, before the December election, Kibaki dissolved Parliament to prevent the process from moving forward. Kibaki was able to win reelection that December by signing an agreement with one of his opponents, Raila Odinga, which allowed him to put up a united front against his main opponent, Uhuru Kenyatta. This agreement expressly stated that a new constitution would be passed into law soon after the election and the new constitution would include provisions for a strong, newly created, Prime Minister position that was intended for Odinga. Yet Kibaki’s opposition to any reform of the legal structure that would divide political power became clear soon after his reelection. Vocal domestic pressure finally ensured that the National Conference was held in April 2003. Delegates to the National Conference approved a new draft constitution that Kibaki himself vocally opposed. In response to Kibaki’s strong opposition to the Conference draft, Kibaki supporters in Parliament wrote their own draft constitution instead of voting on the draft from the Conference as the Constitutional Review Act required. In June 2004, in a step that ultimately prevented Kibaki from pushing through this new constitution, the Kenyan High Court stated that a national referendum would be required in order for a new constitution to become law (Stacy, 2011, p. 588). The constitution that was ultimately put to, and rejected by, the public in a referendum was the one drafted in Parliament and favored by the President with provisions for a Prime Ministerial position that was clearly subordinate to the President and the executive branch. While the initial drafting phase, and particularly the National Conference, were focused on giving the public an opportunity to contribute to the process, the final draft represented a clear break from this process; the final draft was captured by ruling elites and did not allow citizen input. As a result, there was vociferous disagreement among the country’s various political A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 25 leaders over the provisions in the constitution, particularly the provisions concerning the separation of powers. Furthermore, media representing both sides of the debate over the constitution were vocal and coverage of the lengthy process was widespread. Despite the government’s insistence that the state broadcaster, Kenya Broadcasting Corporation (KBS), air only coverage that heavily favored a “yes” vote in the referendum (Andreassen & Tostensen, 2006), other independent media outlets exposed citizens to widespread and balanced coverage including the dissenting arguments (Andreassen & Tostensen, 2006). As a result, many perceived the authors of the final draft as self-serving. Alicia Bannon (2007) argued that the public perception of self-dealing among the drafters played a significant role in the draft’s eventual defeat at the polls (p. 1851). She also concluded, somewhat presciently, that this process exacerbated ethnic tensions between the Kikuyus who largely supported Kibaki and the Luos who largely supported Odinga (Bannon, 2007, pp. 1853-1854). Again, the interaction between the three dimensions in our model helps explain the result of this first constitution-making process. Initially there was a high degree of direct public participation, but the process that actually produced the final draft was not participatory, and opposition to the final elite produced draft was widespread during the referendum. Widespread coverage by an outspoken and opinionated press informed the public about both of these trends. The growth of public opinion in opposition to the new constitution resulted in large-scale boycotting of the referendum and a majority “No” vote by those who did go to the polls in November 2005. Our model indicates that had Kibaki allowed the original draft constitution produced through the participatory Conference to proceed, had his allies been able to convince other political leaders to support their draft, or had they been able to monopolize the information A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 26 the public had access to, we would have seen a higher level of public support for the government drafted constitution. Kenya II. After the sizeable protest, abstention, and “No” vote in 2005, plans for a new constitution were put on hold seemingly indefinitely. In 2007 controversy over the electoral contest between Kibaki and Odinga, resulted in widespread inter-ethnic violence and the death of over 1,200 people (UNHCH, 2008). The peace deal that ended the crisis, facilitated by former Secretary General of the United Nations Kofi Annan, set up a temporary power sharing deal between President Kibaki and the newly created post of Prime Minister for Raila Odinga. Among other things, it mandated a return to the question of the constitution, this time with the goal of using it to facilitate national reconciliation. The Kenya National Dialogue and Reconcilitation Committee (KNDRC), set up by Annan for the purpose of reconciliation, outlined the steps for the promulgation of a new constitution through an “inclusive” consultation process, but the KNDRC only allocated eight weeks to the public consultation component of this process. Ultimately, a small Committee of nine legal experts (the CoE) drafted the initial constitution. A Parliamentary Select Committee was allowed to make changes to the draft before it was put to the legislature and then the public in a referendum. Despite the limited time allowed, the CoE began working in 2009 calling for submission from the public and they received 12,133 responses. They also held meetings with representatives of various sectors of civil society, including: religious, private sector, minority, human rights and the 47 registered political parties in parliament (Konrad Adenaur Stiftung, Dec 2012, p. 70). Despite the efforts of the CoE, the ability of the average citizen to directly contribute to the drafting process was largely limited to the referendum (Stacy, 2011, p. 606). A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 27 The CoE, operating under an international shadow, produced a new draft constitution that was a complete revision of the 2005 version. Most significantly it made a number of revisions that reduced the power of the presidency, including the decentralization of power to the local level, the creation of a second chamber of Parliament, and the ability for Parliament to impeach the president. It also eliminated the temporary Prime Minister position that had been part of the power sharing agreement. Most political elites were vocal in their support of this new draft, including both Kibaki and Odinga, who actively campaigned in support of it leading up to the referendum. They even published a co-authored op-ed in an American newspaper lauding the new document for its American-style checks and balances (Kibaki & Odinga, 2010). While support for the draft was not absolute – former president Moi led the “No” campaign arguing that many of the provisions in the new constitution were “unworkable foreign ideals” – observers agreed that the post-election violence generated the political will for elites to show a united front. The overwhelming elite support stands in sharp contrast to the divisions that permeated the country leading up to the 2005 referendum. The CoE also had the task of leading a civic education campaign intended to prepare citizens for the 2010 referendum. The campaign included the production of a handbook containing a copy of the new draft constitution as well as media engagement, paid advertisements, and a website. However, the limited amount of time the CoE had to conduct civic education meant that the handbook was only produced in English and distribution was limited (Konrad Adenaur Stiftung, Dec 2012, p. 62). By contrast, the various political actors began their campaign efforts for the referendum as early as possible ultimately overshadowing the CoE’s civic education campaign. While the Kenyan media actively covered the lead-up to the vote, a there was a lot of self-censorship. Previously, the media had received a lot of criticism for A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 28 inflammatory content, which critics claimed contributed to the post-election violence in 2007. Leading up to the referendum, the majority of the content citizens received from the media and political campaigns was in support of the new constitution and filled with messages of unity and peace. With regard to the three dimensions of our model, there is an obvious contrast between the 2010 constitution-making process and the pre-2005 constitution-making process. Despite limited public participation during the drafting of the constitution, there was an extremely high degree of unity among the political elites. Moreover, the majority of information the public received was extremely favorable towards the new draft constitution, due to the political unity, self-censorship, and pro-peace content in the media, including the state broadcaster, KBS. In keeping with our model’s predictions, the extremely high level of elite unity combined with the dominance of information in support of the new constitution outweighed the negative effect of low public participation in the constitution-making process. Had the media instead been critical of the process, chosen to highlight the lack of transparency and participation, or openly scrutinized the constitution’s content, public support for the new document might not have been so high. Somalia Our third case of constitution making in Somalia provides a final illustration of our model. A complicated and lengthy peace process designed to bring an end to 20 years of political anarchy culminated in a transition to a new political system. The organizers of the process, the United Nations, required a process leading to the adoption of a new constitution. The process A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 29 was originally designed to be more participatory than it ultimately was, with failed plans for a public referendum and elite rejection of a draft constitution that integrated public feedback. In the end, a hastily-written draft was quickly approved by a bloated and undemocratic Constituent Assembly. While the process organizers controlled much information available to the public through a civic education program on the most popular news outlet, there was also vocal dissent from elites and civil society leaders excluded from the process on other news outlets. Public opinion about the new constitution in Somalia has unknown, but our model predicts that perceived constitutional legitimacy depends on the valence of the information to which the public was exposed. The pre-existing Somali constitution was drafted in 1960 at the end of Italian rule. A 23member technical committee developed the initial draft, after which an “inclusive” 50-member political committee debated all of the provision and made changes as needed. Finally, a 110member Constituent Assembly, including 90 parliamentarians and 20 representatives of civil society reviewed it and in 1961 put it before the Somali people who ratified it through a referendum (Contini, 1969). While many Somalis see this document as a colonial relic, the process that made it is often pointed to as a model for representative constitution making in Somalia. In 1991 the collapse of Siad Barre’s regime left a governmental vacuum and sparked violent conflict that lasted for more than 20 years. Since then there have been numerous domestic efforts, as well as 16 internationally sponsored ones, to resolve the conflict and restore power to a central government. The most notable was the UN-facilitated signing of the Transitional Federal Charter in Nairobi in 2004, which created a Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The TFG was tasked with paving the way for transition to democracy and creating an A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 30 Independent Federal Constitution Commission (IFCC) UN backers required the IFCC to draft a new document as a prerequisite of democratic transition (interpeace, 2011). The TFG had very limited practical power and much of the time could not maintain security in the capital of Mogadishu, which led them to reside in the distant security of Nairobi or Addis Ababa. While the original agreement stated that the new constitution would have to be approved through a public referendum by 2008, the persistence of insecurity made this impossible. Despite significant limitations from lack of funding the IFCC was finally able to produce a draft constitution (Tarey, 2010). The draft was presented to the public in July 2010 to collect feedback from representatives of different sectors of society (IFCC, 2010). By many accounts the IFCC did make an effort to engage with the leaders of various sectors of society, through proxies if not directly (Elmi, 2012) (SOSCENSA, 2011). The response was largely and quite vocally negative so the IFCC and a new Committee of Experts (CoE) drew up a second draft trying to incorporate some of the feedback they received. This time the draft was submitted it to elites instead of the public for review. The elites in question were six “stakeholders” that had been identified as part of the 2011 UN Road Map to peace, including: the TFG President; the Prime Minister; the former Speaker of Parliament; regional leaders of Puntland, and Galmudug; and a representative of the Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a group. In May 2012, these six, plus a UN Special Representative, met in Addis Ababa ostensibly to review the new IFCC draft, but they instead disbanded the IFCC and the CoE. At a series of subsequent meetings in Nairobi and Garowe, they approved a completely new draft they wrote in secret and agreed that, instead of a referendum, a National Constituent Assembly (NCA) would be given the power to vote the new document up or down. The NCA was a bloated entity with over 800 delegates appointed by Somali traditional clan leaders, ostensibly to ensure that A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 31 representatives from all of the major clans were included (Elmi, 2012). In practice, many of the Somali elite, including those living abroad, jockeyed for positions on the Assembly through bribes to clan leaders, and the Assembly functioned as little more than a rubber stamp for the secret constitution (Aynte, 2013). On August 1, 2012, 96 percent of the members of the NCA approved the seven signatories’ draft, despite many of its hastily written provisions that did not resolve many of the most contentious issues including federalism and the decentralization of power, the role of Sharia and local xeer law in the new system, the role of women in government and the nomination of a capital city (BBC, 2012). The signatories agreed that the new Parliament—sworn into power August 20, 2012 after being appointed by the NCA—would subsequently have the authority to amend the new constitution. A parliamentary constitutional commission has been created to begin this process, but even the MP heading this commission admits that the constitution is confusing and the process is unlikely to proceed quickly (Aynte, 2013). Crucially, external backers funded the entire constitution-making process, reportedly costing the UN upwards of $15 million. External pressure contributed to the speed with which the final constitution was pushed through to enable the final transition to the new government. In tandem the UN funded a public information campaign nominally designed to engage the public in the constitution-making process. The campaign revolved around programming produced in collaboration with, and aired on, the largest and most popular Somali language satellite television station, Universal TV. This included call-in shows where members of the public could voice their opinion and elites, including members of the CoE, would appear on the show to field question about the new constitution.viii The subject matter clearly favored the new constitution focusing on what a constitution is, the importance of the constitution, and why it was needed for A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 32 Somalia. The campaign could easily be described as advertisements for the constitution rather than as true platforms for discussion (Osman, Marchant, & Stremlau, N.d.). Favorable coverage of the constitution was also aired on the UN radio station, Bar Kulan. The information campaigns and the acceleration of the constitution-making process in 2012 also fostered an increase in coverage of the constitution-making process in other news outlets, including satellite television stations, radio networks, and online news sites. Detailed qualitative content analysis of 30 of the major Somali-language news outlets by researchers at the University of Oxford (Osman, Marchant, & Stremlau, N.d.) shows that there was a mixed and often quite convoluted view of the confusing constitution-making process. Dissenting views were commonly aired by news networks that opposed provisions in the new draft or by frequent audience callers who voiced their objections on television and radio. The most common critiques were about the corrupt selection of delegates for the NCA, the disproportionate role of the government of Puntland, the involvement of the UN and other international actors, and inclusion of provisions that were foreign to local Somali culture (Osman, Marchant, & Stremlau, N.d.). Eleanor Marchant conducted 10 in-depth interviews with diaspora Somalis in London and every one of the interviewees reported that Universal TV was the main source of information for themselves and their relatives back in Somalia (Marchant, N.d.). Most respondents also claimed to consult at least one additional source. While official audience figures are impossible to obtain given the security situation, the impact of the UN information campaign broadcast over “the most popular news outlet” should not be underestimated. As was the case in the first Kenyan constitution-making process, the Somali process began with a higher degree of public consultation than with which it ended. Despite the IFCC’s A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 33 initial attempts to integrate public feedback into the process, the six stakeholders who subsequently captured the process discarded their draft and a public referendum was abandoned as impractical. Like the second Kenyan constitution-making process, international actors influenced the process in Somali . In the Somali case, the UN took pains to emphasize the so called “participatory” nature of this process. While the six signatories, the members of the NCA, and the civic education campaign on the most popular news outlet all supported the new constitution, there was dissent among members of the political and civil elite who were excluded from the process. Elite division along with the vocalization of public opposition on various interactive media platforms provided members of the public with a mixed picture. It is impossible to say how the majority of Somalis really feel about the new constitution due to the lack of polling data or a referendum. However, we do have evidence on two of our three indicators: the level of participation in the process that produced the final constitution was extremely low and elites excluded from the process were vocal in their opposition to the new document. We argue that public opinion about the new constitution hinges on the information to which the public were exposed. We would expect public support of the new constitution to be low: 1) in regions where elite dissenters controlled the main source of information; 2) among individuals who had access to a diversity of sources providing them with information from constitutional opponents as well as supporters, or 3) where direct coverage of the process made people aware of how un-participatory it was. By contrast, we would expect public support of the new constitution to be high: 1) in regions where elites supported the new constitution and controlled the main sources of information; 2) where the main news outlet the public consumed was Universal TV; or 3) if the coverage of citizens voicing their opinions about the constitution led people to believe that the process was more participatory than it really was. Questions remain A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 34 about what kind of information Somalis are able to access outside of Mogadishu where a diverse array of sources is available? Further empirical work is needed to help answer this question. Conclusion In this paper, we outlined a multi-dimensional model of the causes of public approval for a new constitution. Drawing initially from extensive research based on a survey and in-depth interviews in Uganda (Moehler 2008), supplemented by other academic and practitioner literature, we argue that public acceptance of a new constitution depends on where the constitution-making process falls along three dimensions: 1) the degree of direct mass citizen involvement in the process, 2) The extent of elite support for the constitution; and 3) the level of citizen access to information about both the process and the content of the constitution. Much of the existing research on the legitimacy of a constitution-making process focuses on the first of these three dimensions. There is widespread belief among practitioners that a highly participatory process enhances citizen perception of constitutional legitimacy in addition to creating a more democratic and representative document. Many constitution makers even attempt to capitalize on this norm by calling a process “participatory” when the process truly lacks citizen involvement. Our model supports the belief that an increase in public participation can at times lead to an increase in public approval for the constitution. However, we argue that this effect is contingent on where a constitution-making process lies along our other two dimensions. As such, our central argument is that it is the interaction between these three dimensions that effects citizen perceptions of constitutional legitimacy. An exploration of four case studies of participatory constitution making in three East African countries illustrates the usefulness of our model. Most notably, the case studies reveal A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY 35 the important role that access to information played in shaping legitimacy perceptions. However, the effect of information access is not straightforward and depends very much on what form the information takes, who controls it, and where the process falls along the other two dimensions of our model. In the Ugandan case, elite control over information in their respective districts ensured that local public opinion largely followed local elite opinion. Majority elite opinion in favor of the constitution led to high public support. In the first Kenyan case a plethora of independent media outlets ensured that the public was well-informed of President Kibaki’s capture of the process and opposition to the constitution was widespread. This negative information about the process led to mass disapproval and rejection of the constitution at the polls. In the second Kenyan case, the unity of the elites behind the process and the predominance of pro-peace and pro-unity messages in the majority of the country’s media outlets generated widespread approval for the constitution despite a relatively secretive and unparticipatory constitution-making process. Finally, further research is needed to know the actual level of public support for the new constitution in Somalia, but our model suggests that approval depends on the nature of the information to which citizens are exposed. We develop predictions about the conditions under which information sources will describe the process as participatory and representative, generating public support, and conditions under which the opposite will occur. Looking forward, our model indicates that scholars should be attentive to new technologies that increase access to diverse sources of information. 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Palgrave Macmillan. i See (Samuels, 2005) (Elster, 1995) (Elkins, Ginsburg, & Blount, 2008) (Cottrell & Ghai, 2007) (Lerner, 2011) (Moehler, 2008) (McWhinney, 1981) (Ginsburg, Comparative Constitutional Design, 2012) practitioner works particularly by USIP and IDEA ii (Ihonvbere, 2000) (Ghai & Galli, 2006) (Chambers, 2004) iii Some other areas of study of participatory constitution-making have included its effect on the ability to constrain government actors, on the decentralization of power, and on the capacity for peacemaking in post-conflict settings. iv In addition to the results on constitutional legitimacy discussed in this paper, Moehler (2008) found that participation was associated with stronger democratic attitudes as well as higher political and constitutional knowledge, and that these attitude changes in turn led to the erosion of trust in institutions. Participants learned that the institutions of government fell short of their newly developed democratic standards. Participation in hybrid systems like Uganda, that combine elements of democratic and authoritarian rule, will have different consequences than will participation in well-formed consolidated democracies where the erosion of trust might be less likely. v List countries here and details of the Afrobarometer survey and the national level question in her index that was comparable to the Afrobarometer questions vi See for example: Laurel Miller’s (2010) compilation of 19 cases for USIP; Jamal Benomar’s (2004) advice for Iraqi constitution makers; and Brandt Cottrell, Ghai and Regan’s (2011) comprehensive practitioner’s guide for interpeace. A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTION MAKING AND LEGITIMACY vii 41 Even in the case of seemingly direct information, like live televised coverage of a political debate, the news network broadcasting now has increasing control over the way in which the audience interprets it through scrolling headlines at the bottom of the screen or the choice of Twitter posts to display reacting to what the speakers are saying. viii This is drawn from detailed and extensive content analysis conducted by Eleanor Marchant, Ridwan Osman, and Nicole Stremlau through the Programme in Comparative Media Law & Policy at the University of Oxford. The content analysis was performed between December 2011 and May 2012 and included 30 Somali-language news outlets representing the different regions of Somalia and focused exclusively on coverage of the constitution making process, the content of the new draft constitution and the various constitution-related conferences held during the period.