MINUTES
Fall 2003 PNWCG Fire Weather Working Team / NWS Meeting
Northwest Interagency Coordination Center
Portland, Oregon
18 November 2003
In Attendance Paul Werth (FWS, NWCC), Roddy Baumann (FWS – Portland Regional Office),
Coleen Decker (NWS, Boise), Mike Fitzpatrick (NPS, NWCC), Chris Hill (NWS,
Seattle), Chuck Redman (NWS, Boise), Terry Marsha (BIA, NWCC), Jim Prange
(NWS, Seattle), John Saltenberger (NWS, Portland), Joe Solomon (NWS,
Pendleton), Bob Tobin (NWS, Spokane), Steve Todd (NWS, Portland), Scott
Weishaar (NWS, Portland), Tyree Wilde (NWS, Portland), Roger Williams
(NWS, Medford), Mike Ziolko (ODF, Salem)
By telephone: John Jannuzzi (NWS, Boise)
Recording minutes: Vickie Werth
Welcome
Paul Werth welcomed everyone to NWCC and offered a tour of the facility at the
conclusion of the meeting on Wednesday.
Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) - Implementation with respect to fire weather
products by Weather Service office (an overview of how each office is using IFPS to formulate
forecasts and briefings)
a. Chris Hill projected on-screen a WFO Seattle POP forecast output of the MM5
Ensemble System (shows a lot of detail in the POP field) as an example of tools
that would be impossible for forecaster to produce in the time allotted. He listed
and explained several tools that are available and briefed the group on discussion
taking place on their place and use in fire weather forecasting. Discussion of the
dew point, relative humidity, and match observation tools illustrated that there are
pros and cons of any analysis scheme available for application to fire weather and
other weather programs (e.g. public, marine). Terrain resolution, the model being
used, the quality of data being used, internal defaults (i.e. soil moistures),
boundary schemes, etc. affect the accuracy of forecasts produced. The group
commented on improvements being sought as these tools are used and evaluated,
and additional variables are incorporated into application of the tools. Fire
weather forecasters can use edit areas to modify/produce weather grids over a
finite area in order to depict the best resolution for a specific weather parameter.
Questions centered on possible discrepancies between public and fire weather
forecasts, but the NWS response was that generating text from grids will alleviate
this concern. The goal is that the grids become the forecast, with several
forecasters having input into the grid. The group discussed how each office
decides which model to use, and when to use the model versus using the grid as
the basis for the forecast. Official forecast grids move forward (i.e. today’s dayfive grid was day-before-yesterday’s day-seven grid). In the old days, review of
the various models and other offices’ forecasts became a conceptual picture; the
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new system gives forecasters a method to translate that conceptual picture into a
visual grid. You always start with the previous grid and tweak it with current
information. GACC meteorologists were invited to visit the NWS office and see
exactly how the forecasts are produced in the new system.
b. Bob Tobin indicated that Spokane uses the system in much the same manner, and
that they are trying to make the Smart Tools they have now communicate what
they are trying to show. Joe said that Pendleton does as well. It is important to
stress the most critical values yet ensure that formatting changes don’t affect the
official forecast. Formatters and grids must be kept separate. At the beginning of
the fire season, NWS forecasters heard a lot of user complaints, but as the season
progressed, the number of complaints decreased. One of the biggest complaints
from the field seems to be with the length of the forecasts. This may be due to the
fact that each user group has multiple individuals needing and wanting different
forecasts. Eventually they will be able to provide two versions (one long, the
other shorter), but that isn’t possible at the present time. John Jannuzzi pointed
out that this year the NWS was still learning how to effectively and efficiently
produce the grids, but that is a work in progress. What the customer may perceive
to be grid inconsistencies are addressed in post-editing. This can become
problematic when compiling verification statistics. Pattern recognition by
forecasters comes into play in terms of critical values which can be incorporated
into the grids and text forecasts. Probability grids may provide a probability
distribution across time, which could be part of the solution in addressing this
issue.
c. Customer needs will determine whether the fire weather discussions in the text
forecasts continue. Most NWS office representatives indicated that they don’t
expect the fire weather discussions in the text forecasts to disappear completely.
Roger pointed out that as the formatters improve, there will be more time to
prepare the fire weather discussions. Roddy Baumann suggested that audiences be
stratified (identify the spectrum of users) and this stratification be communicated
to the users. User education and interpretation can assist in resolving some of the
confusion and how to effectively use the gridded forecasts. Roger noted that there
are more Smart Tools available than most forecasters can take advantage of at this
point. The goal of collaboration between offices is to coordinate the forecast
across office boundaries and make a seamless forecast. Having an extra pair of
eyes review the forecasts before they go out provides an extra level of quality
control to ensure the formatters and any post-editing produce quality forecasts.
Researchers and NWS personnel are working on gridded verification to evaluate
how good the grids are, how useful they are for comparing forecast products from
shift to shift, day to day, season to season, etc. The expected date for temperature,
dew point and POP grids to become official NWS grids is 31 March 04.
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PNWCG / NWS MOU review
MOU was signed in early 2001. Provides a framework for cooperation and commitment …
It covers NWS responsibilities and provides for a seasonal review of products and services
provided by the NWS, provision of a NWS forecaster at NWCC, maintain staffing for fire
weather program to prevent degradation of service, and seeks counsel of agencies prior to NWS
changes in the program.
PNWCG will administer and implement provisions of the agreement.
Both will work cooperatively on annual operating plan, meet semi-annually, submit a written
report to PNWCG chair and NWS Western Region director by December 15 containing an
evaluation of NWS products and services along with recommendations for improvement. There
are a number of items not currently being followed that should be addressed. There are valid
reasons why this agreement was developed and this group should make sure all provisions are
being followed.
Oregon National Guard mobile upper air soundings unit
The PNWCG Weather working Team met with the Oregon National Guard concerning the
availability of this unit on wildland fires. ODF has a cooperative agreement with the Oregon
National Guard, Ops Plan Smoky, stating which resources and under what conditions they will
be dispatched to wildfires. The upper air sounding unit was not called into service this year.
Specific requirements include a multiple-incident situation with multiple IMETs. The Oregon
National Guard unit can only be used in Oregon. However, a similar unit might have been used
on the Okanogan/Wenatchee NF this year if one had been available in Washington. Once the
situation in Iraq quiets down, we may investigate a similar type arrangement with some type of
unit in Washington.
2003 fire season review
Mike Fitzpatrick and Paul Werth, NWCC Predictive Services, reviewed elements of fire season
severity and applied those to the 2003 fire season in the Northwest. Elements of a severe fire
seasons include: short and long term dryness, the number of lightning ignitions (wet or dry),
resource availability, and initial attack effectiveness. Predictive Services has determined that
these are some of the common weather elements of a severe fire season in the Northwest; a
below normal snowpack, long term drought, early snowmelt date (2-3 weeks earlier than usual),
below normal June rainfall, summer dryness, and dry lightning episodes ( which average 2-3 per
summer with an average first date around July 18). Charts illustrated in the presentation were:
winter precipitation, 01April snowpack, percentage of normal “water year” precipitation, 30
April standardized precipitation index, 29 April drought monitor, 2003 fire season severity
forecast (published first in February and updated in June), June 500 MB heights (first real fire
came at end of June), June percentage of normal precipitation, July 500 MB heights (large fires
were sporadic, with a cluster at the end of the month), July percentage of normal precipitation,
August 500 MB heights (no dry lightning busts as in the past few years), August percentage of
normal precipitation, September 500 MB heights (most large fires occurred within a day of two
of the peaks in the breakdown of the ridges), September percentage of normal precipitation, ERC
graphs for E-1 (the Okanogan), C-2 (central Oregon), and W-1 (NW Washington, Olympics,
Mt. Rainier), and a spreadsheet illustrating largest fire year by acreage burned sorted by agency.
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The USFS, BIA and Washington DNR acreage burned in 2003 was in the upper third, ODF in
the middle third, and BLM in the lowest third. The fire season was generally “above average”
but was very much area and agency dependent. Terry Marsha presented a chart showing how the
risk of large fires (low-green, average-yellow and high-red) tracked this year based on observed
100-hour fuel moisture and ERC. He explained the three color-coded levels, explaining how it is
overlaid with other data to see how various events correlate with large fires. The signatures that
become apparent make fire danger levels easier to determine. Terry has developed regression
equations based on historical fire occurrence correlated with 100-hour fuel moisture and ERC.
These values are project out 10-days using algorithms Terry has developed. John Saltenberger is
working on a case study that compares this technique against traditional NFDRS fire danger
levels and 90th percentile figures.
Evaluation of agency-provided weather observations
Terry Marsha, regional RAWS coordinator, presented information about the quality and
timeliness of RAWS data input by federal and state fire agencies. He distributed a report
illustrating the percentage of time weather observations are entered into WIMS by 1500 PDT by
dispatch center or agency office. These observations should then be available for the NWS in
their production of NFDRS zone tend forecasts. Terry also prepared a report that details RAWS
site maintenance. Eastside produces good statistics, but Westside often do not provide usable
wind data due to sheltering by trees. Most Westside stations were placed long ago and forest
growth has impeded their wind sensing effectiveness. Many of the agencies responsible for
maintenance do not meet their obligations. OSHA standards make it difficult to place wind
meters on towers above the canopy to enhance the accuracy of data provided. Discussion ensued
regarding data entry time and site maintenance, with sharing of difficulties and challenges
involved. There was a problem with the WIMS/NWS gateway slowing down receipt of
observations and NFDRS zone trend forecasts. Late receipt of observations and forecasts
resulted in WIMS not generating NFDRS forecasts for the next day.
ACTION ITEM: Paul Werth requested that focal points send him an e-mail detailing the
WIMS/NWS gateway problems affecting observations and NFDRS zone trend forecasts so that
the FWWT can address them directly. He will compile a list and contact the appropriate
individuals or groups (i.e. NWCG’s Fire Danger and/or Fire Weather Working Teams) to solve
the problem. This could be a violation of the 30-Mile Fire mitigation, creating safety liability
issues for the agencies.
Meeting adjourned at 1630 PST.
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MINUTES
Fall 2003 PNWCG Weather Working Team / NWS Meeting
Northwest Interagency Coordination Center
Portland, Oregon
19 November 2003
In Attendance Paul Werth (FWS, NWCC), Roddy Baumann (FWS – Portland Regional Office),
Coleen Decker (NWS, Boise), Chris Hill (NWS, Seattle), Chuck Redman (NWS,
Boise), Terry Marsha (BIA, NWCC), Jim Prange (NWS, Seattle), John
Saltenberger (NWS, Portland), Joe Solomon (NWS, Pendleton), Bob Tobin
(NWS, Spokane), Steve Todd (NWS, Portland), Scott Weishaar (NWS, Portland),
Tyree Wilde (NWS, Portland), Roger Williams (NWS, Medford), Mike Ziolko
(ODF, Salem)
Recording minutes: Vickie Werth
Proposed NWS fire weather policy changes for 2004
There are some changes in NWS national-level directives.
 IMETs (and all other positions, i.e. FBANs,) must complete the taskbook prior to being
certified. The directive would allow for the decision on certification to be made by the on-site
IMET trainer, regardless of documentation of completion of other requirements.
 There is a proposed change in the name of the “Fire Weather Forecast” to “Fire Weather
Planning Forecast”.
 The Weather Working Team requested that wind gusts be included in the fire weather
forecasts beginning in 2004. Gusts are sometimes included in the forecast, but it is up to the
forecaster’s discretion to determine when gusts are significant. A gust grid has been
developed and is used at WFOs. Gusts are significant in terms of fire weather forecasts and
probably should be incorporated into fire weather forecasts. Technically, a gust recorded by
RAWS is an instantaneous event, but that is not the same as the meteorological definition of
a gust that requires it be averaged over a few seconds. This may necessitate some education
of the user; they know what gusts are, but may not be aware of the definition differences.
There was agreement that gusts are important to include if they are significant, but not
necessarily on a day-to-day basis when wind is not out of the ordinary.
ACTION ITEM: Wind gusts will be included in the 2004 fire weather forecasts. The WWT
and NWS will jointly develop the criteria to include wind gusts (e.g. winds >=15 mph, 25
mph etc.) in the forecasts prior to the publication of the 2004 Annual Operating Plan (AOP).
 A proposed change in the Lightning Activity Level (LAL) was discussed. The NWS
proposed change would use Widely Scattered as a descriptor for LAL 3. This correlates to
the term that the fire agencies use in the NFDRS system. However, there seems to be a
discrepancy in the table listed in NWS Instruction 10-401. The descriptor for LAL 6 should
be the same as that for LAL 3 since the coverage for both is the same, except that 6 is
reserved for “dry lightning”.
ACTION ITEM: The LAL 6 descriptor proposed in 10-401 should be corrected from
scattered to widely scattered to conform to NFDRS directives.
 Another problem is the number of spot forecasts. IFPS and grids can speed up the delivery
time of spot forecasts by providing a first guess for the forecaster to work from. It will also
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
allow nearby offices to pitch in and produce a spot forecast in the event an office is
extremely busy with severe weather and warning operations. All changes in how spots are
handled need to be documented and incorporated into the 2004 operating plan. It would be
also be helpful if NWS forecaster proficiency and currency changes were communicated to
PNWCG’s Weather Working Team.
Question arose as to how a privately contracted IMET was dispatched on a change-out at the
Needles fire. SWICC requested an IMET from Spokane and Seattle, but none were available.
They then sent the request to NWCC stating that neither Seattle nor Spokane could fill the
order but that a retired IMET (Gary Bennett) was available from Spokane. SWIC filled the
IMET order with Gary Bennett, but was later told by Gerry Day (NWCC Manager) that they
had to fill it with an NWS IMET. The fire then canceled the order and held Gary Bennett as
a technical specialist, not an IMET. The following is just some of the discussion that
resulted, both pro and con…. The IMET is the only position in the Incident Command
System (ICS) that is solely the property of a single agency, in this case the NWS. Other
federal, state or private sector meteorologists may be qualified, but the NWS does not
recognize them. This is because the NWS has not provided certification training to anyone
outside the NWS, resulting in total exclusion of other qualified meteorologists. The response
from the NWS was, that if the NWS is going to be expected to provide training to outside
personnel, they will need to be provided with the funds to do so. One method of
accommodating this is tuition (to cover the infrastructure costs). Another option would be a
“trainer of trainers” model that could be used to provide a non-NWS option for private
contractor certification, similar to the crew certification process. Another problem is liability
coverage, which would apparently be the same as for all current private contractor positions
(the private contractor is responsible for their own coverage). In addition, concerns were
raised by the NWS about non-NWS IMETs issuing forecasts that were inconsistent with
WFO forecasts for the same forecast area which could cause confusion for firefighters. This
is an issue that cannot be decided by this group, but it is something the NWS and the land
management agencies will inevitably have to deal with in the future. A “red card” procedure
may be possible to ensure on-going certification of private contractors. The national
agreement calls for NWS IMETs to be called first. If they are not available within a
reasonable period of time, other federal meteorologists or private contractors may be used,
provided they are certified.
NWS / GACC daily conference call
 Conference calls should be used to introduce new information rather than re-hash what was
on the previous evening’s National situation Report (from 209s). Part of the repeat of
information may be due to the inexperience of interns or trainees in the Intelligence Brach of
NWCC.
 Another concern voiced is that there isn’t adequate time for forecasters to prepare their
products when the conference call isn’t until late morning. It was suggested that an earlier
call may be helpful, but that was not a unanimous consensus among the NWS fire weather
focal points; many of the offices prefer the current late morning call time. The GACC has the
conference call line from 10:00-12:00 each morning, but the dispatchers’ conference call
precedes the weather conference call. No changes were made in the 11:15 time frame for the
2004 fire season.
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
Sometimes forecasters get cut off in mid-sentence, which discussion revealed is due to
differences in each office being able to hear others on the conference call line. Using a
speakerphone versus using a handset may be a factor. If someone can’t hear someone else,
they should speak up so that particular problem can be diagnosed and resolved.
 Phone calls are very helpful to GACC meteorologists in terms of briefing the GACC staff. If
there are significant changes in the forecast after the conference call, NWS forecasters are
requested to call the GACC meteorologist with the changes.
 It was suggested that a policy be established that conference call participants not hang up
while the call is in progress. The resulting dial tone is very disruptive. If someone has to
leave early, they should leave the phone off the hook and have it hung up after the conference
is over.
 As far as content is concerned, the person doing the fire weather conference call should have
at least a cursory briefing from the person in his/her office doing the long-term forecast.
Strategic (long-term) trends are not always an issue, so the GACC meteorologist will usually
indicate whether they are looking for long-range information for a particular area. The WFO
person on the call should be cognizant of critical fire weather patterns so they can better
target the information they provide. Paul and Terry would be willing to visit the WFOs, make
presentations at workshops, and post to the web the map types used at the GACC and a
review of critical fire weather patterns. This could also be done through a coordinated video
conference.
ACTION ITEM: Daily NWS/GACC conference call participants should come prepared to
discuss the weather patterns through the extended period (at least day 7).
Transfer of forecast responsibility of Portland’s eastside zones to Pendleton
There will be a transfer of forecast duties for the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades from the
Portland NWS to Pendleton NWS in 2004. Pendleton will take responsibility for providing fire
weather forecasts and services for fire zones 609, 610 and 611. This would affect all of the
Deschutes NF and Warm Springs BIA. The question arose if this also affected the eastside of the
Mt. Hood NF. Portland hadn’t contacted the Mt. Hood yet, so that was still to be determined.
Disagreement as to weather zones boundaries should maintained or changed (effectively
matching county boundaries) was unresolved.
ACTION ITEM: The FWWT requests that FMOs of affected districts send letters to the Fire
Weather Working Team with their acceptance of the changes or document their acceptance (in
detail, including names, dates, etc.) in Pendleton’s and Portland’s trip reports.
Evaluation of NWS fire weather services in 2003
a) General forecasts: Comments from the field indicate that they feel the newer segmented
forecasts are too long. This is partially due to extending the forecasts from 5-day to 7-day
forecasts. Dispatcher education may help them determine how to find the information they
particularly need. Methods of informing dispatch offices of corrected or amended forecasts
were discussed. Users need to be informed as to when forecasts are in the system so they are
retrieving the best, most current information. Most WSOs call the dispatch offices with
changes after forecasts are put into the system.
b) Spot forecasts: Everyone agreed that having spot forecasts posted to the Internet is valuable
and much appreciated by the users, the WFOs and the GACC.
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c) Verification of NFDRS zone trend forecasts: Paul Werth distributed verification sheets.
These have been calculated the same way for the past four years so that consistency is
ensured and trends can be noted. Data is retrieved from WIMS and analyzed with
questionable data thrown out so it will not skew the trends. Temperature forecasts with
respect to improvement over persistence is relatively good. However, the accuracy of
relative humidity forecasts is less and in most areas, the wind forecasts don’t improve over
what was observed the previous day. In some areas west of the Cascades, this may be due in
part to “sheltering” of the RAWS wind sensor. In general, the accuracy of NFDRS zone
trend forecasts provide by the NWS do not meet the accuracy standards required by the
PNWCG/NWS MOU. The one exception is Pendleton’s temperature forecasts which
actually exceed the MOU standards. It was also noted that there was an overall decrease in
the accuracy of the NFDRS trend forecasts in 2003 compared to last year. Chris Hill pointed
out that the NWS does their verifications by month rather than by season. There was
disagreement as to whether wind figures are significant, and it was agreed that days of wind
change are more critical than other days. Pendleton is to be commended on beating MOU
accuracy trends for temperature for two years running. Cases where trends are not upward
could be due to several factors: experienced fire weather forecasters replaced by lessexperienced forecasters, IFPS, exceptional weather occurrences, etc. If observations are not
received, WFOs might consider not putting out forecasts so that the field has an incentive to
provide observations in a timely manner. The MOU was based on the NWS vision of 30%
improvement in 2005 without degradation of service. NWS focal points requested that
PNWCG form a subcommittee to provide suggestions for improvement. Extended discussion
related to zone trends versus point forecasts. Zone trend forecasts were instituted in the 70s
for the convenience of the forecasters.
ACTION ITEM: NWS focal points are asked to review the verification statistics presented
and provide Paul Werth with comments and suggestions for improvement in accuracy.
d) Field comments: Mike Ziolko presented comments he received from ODF field
personnel. They are: 1) it would be helpful to have Internet briefings begin earlier in the
year when fire conditions warrant as was the case this year. Focal points indicated that
they set start dates based on user input. Users should be encouraged to address requests
for earlier start dates to their WFO’s leadership, not to the forecasters on the floor. 2) The
briefings were much more well-accepted by the users this year. Sometimes the users
don’t understand the implications of meteorological terms in the briefings. The weather
features shown in the internet graphics are being described by forecasters are not clearly
evident. The briefings need to be simplified so that field level personnel can understand
them. Suggestions from the field to make the forecasts easier to understand, include
adding legends to the screen, provide an on-screen tutorial for the users, provide a preseason training for field personnel, and streamline the briefings. 3) Take care with use of
the term “critical” humidity, especially late in the season after significant rains have
reduced fire danger. Forecasts described critical events occurring when in fact average
fall days occurred that did not have any adverse effect on fire conditions. 4) Possibly send
out the forecasts by e-mail to each users’ inbox, and 5) include areas of ODF
responsibility when issuing fire weather watches or red flag warnings (i.e. National
Forests were named but ODF District offices were not included, implying the ODF lands
were not included when they indeed were).
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e) IMET support: Comments received from local users: Paul Werth presented a statement
from Dale Gardner commending the IMETs on the Clark, B and B Complex and
Yellowstone Fires. WFOs having received similar letters or written compliments are
requested to submit copies to the GACC for inclusion in the report.
f) Verification of Red Flag Warnings: discussion below
Red Flag Verification
Paul Werth distributed a draft report on the accuracy of Red Flag Warnings during the 2003 fire
season. He requested NWS input on the Red Flag verification figures prior to finalizing the
report. Paul noted that not every warning issued may have been counted and focal points should
check his numbers. Red Flag Warnings were verified using criteria published in each NWS
offices’ Annual Operating Plan (AOP). If a station being used to verify these warnings does not
meet the WFO’s operating plan requirements, GACC meteorologists will review this data for
possible verification modification. Ellis Mountain is an example of a unique station that may
skew verification data for the Seattle office. GACC meteorologists have carefully examined each
WFO’s criteria and ensured that their formulae are met by the stations selected for verification.
The MOU states that 60% of warnings should be preceded by watches. In 2002, all WFOs met
that criteria, but in 2003 only Portland met that goal. Focal points should bring discrepancies in
their Red Flag Warning verification numbers to the attention of GACC meteorologists so they
can be reviewed and modified if necessary. The goal is that everyone be able to agree with the
final report issued. This makes it particularly important that criteria published in the operating
plans be very specific. Paul then displayed a series of graphs depicting this year’s False Alarm
Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD), and Critical Success Index (CSI) figures for each
Weather Service office. These figures were also compared to the 1999 National Weather Service
Western Region statistics. Only Seattle’s and Pendleton’s POD matched or exceeded the 1999
NWS statistics. Overall, Red Flag Warnings were less accurate (measured using FAR, POD and
CSI) than last year and the 1999 NWS Western Region average. Chris Hill suggested (and will
provide) GACC meteorologists with 1999 Pacific Northwest statistics so that a more
representative verification can be prepared.
Discussion of dry lightning issues
NWS focal points indicated that their personnel are having increasing difficulty in forecasting
dry lightning. Terry Marsha will try to identify tools that may be helpful to them. He
recommends familiarizing themselves with the signature of dry lightning events and using a
number of factors to predict the probability of events that could result in dry lightning. The
criteria for putting out a Red Flag Warning (i.e. lightning after a long dry spell) should be
coordinated between WFOs for consistency and incorporated into their operating plans. Possible
criteria to be investigated include dryness levels, ERCs, 500 mb map types, specifically-defined
extended dry spells, etc. Terry stated that his statistics indicate the best correlation of large fires
is the number of ignitions per day (6 or 7 lightning starts is a good level to watch for).
Paul stated that SPCs fire weather outlook nailed the June 29th wind event in eastern Oregon
event when many warnings were missed. SPC’s fire weather products are frequently at odds with
WSO forecasts and warnings.
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Evaluation of Predictive Services products
a) Seasonal Fire Potential Assessment (see 2003 fire season summary presented the
previous day).
b) 10-Day Fire Potential Assessments/Dryness Levels by Predictive Service Area (PSA)..
Paul Werth distributed a matrix detailing the accuracy and bias of the 10-day ERC and
100 hr fuel moisture forecasts. There is a bias toward lower ERCs and higher 100 hr fuel
moisture which increases through the 10-day outlook period. However, the bias is very
consistent and should be easy to correct with modification to the regression equations
used to produce these figures. He explained that the average correction factor is based on
the difference between the observed and projected numbers for the date. So far,
correction factors have only been calculated for southwestern Oregon (Predictive Service
Area W4). GACC meteorologists will complete the verification results and calculate
correction factors for the eleven remaining PSAs in Washington and Oregon this winter.
Parallel equations will be run next fire season to test the validity of using bias corrections.
Terry will also investigate development of a bias/correction for map types.
Chris Hill commented that Tom Leuschen, an AD from Twist, on the Mt. Rainier NP
fires, did a great job of documenting observations and providing the WFO with detailed
spreadsheets that were invaluable in preparing forecasts for that area.
2004 Annual Operating Plan
John Saltenberger, NWS Portland, will again compile the 2004 Annual Operating Plan. NWS
fire weather focal points are requested bring their 2004 AOPs to the February meeting in the
standard format requested by John. The main purpose of the February will be to review and
prepare the AOPs for publication.
Dates for 2004 spring and fall meetings
The spring meeting will be February 10-11, 2004
The fall meeting date will be established at the spring meeting.
Minutes of this meeting will be e-mailed to all participants the week following the meeting.
Corrections / additions / clarifications should be returned to Paul Werth as soon as possible.
Paul will send draft copies of the report to all participants prior to submitting a final to the
PNWCG chair and the NWS Western Region director. This is supposed to be completed by
December 15th, but probably won’t occur until January 15th at the earliest.
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ACTION ITEM SUMMARY
ACTION ITEM: Paul Werth requested that focal points send him an e-mail detailing the
WIMS/NWS gateway problems affecting observations and NFDRS zone trend forecasts so that
the FWWT can address them directly. He will compile a list and contact the appropriate
individuals or groups (i.e. NWCG’s Fire Danger and/or Fire Weather Working Teams) to solve
the problem. This could be a violation of the 30-Mile Fire mitigation, creating safety liability
issues for the agencies.
ACTION ITEM: Wind gusts will be included in the 2004 fire weather forecasts. The FWWT
and NWS will jointly develop the criteria to include wind gusts (e.g. winds >=15 mph, 25 mph
etc.) in the forecasts prior to the publication of the 2004 Annual Operating Plan (AOP).
ACTION ITEM: Daily NWS/GACC conference call participants should come prepared to
discuss the weather patterns through the extended period (at least day 7).
ACTION ITEM: The FWWT requests that FMOs of affected districts send letters to the Fire
Weather working Team with their acceptance of the changes or document their acceptance (in
detail, including names, dates, etc.) in Pendleton’s and Portland’s trip reports.
ACTION ITEM: NWS focal points were asked to review the verification statistics presented
and provide Paul Werth with comments and suggestions for improvement in accuracy.
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