The Marketing Research Process Chapter 3 Audhesh Paswan, Ph.D. INFORMATION REDUCES UNCERTAINTY HELPS FOCUS DECISION MAKING Marketing Research can be . . . Accurate Fast Inexpensive Pick two! Can’t have three at the same time! STAGES IN THE RESEARCH PROCESS PROBLEM DISCOVERY AND PROBLEM DEFINITION RESEARCH DESIGN SAMPLING DATA GATHERING DATA PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS AND REPORT 1 Establishing the need for marketing research. Is it needed? May not be needed: – information may already be available – not enough time to do study – not enough money – costs may outweigh value of research Marketing Research Marketing Research Types Problem Identification Problem-Solving * Market Potential Research * Market Share Research * Image Research * Market Characteristics * Sales Analyses Research * Forecasting Research * Business Trend Research * Segmentation Research * Product Research * Pricing Research * Promotion Research * Distribution Research 2 Define the problem Most important part - everything else is based upon this! May do “exploratory research” to help define the problem Think of yourself as a “marketing doctor” – make sure you can tell the symptoms from the problem.. specify the symptoms > itemizing the possible causes of the symptoms > listing the reasonable alternative course of action. Defining the Problem Results in Clear Cut Research Objectives Symptom Detection Analysis of the Situation Exploratory Research (Optional) Problem Definition Statement of Research Objectives “The formulation of the problem is often more essential than its solution” Albert Einstein The Process of Problem Definition Ascertain the decision maker’s objectives. Understand the background of the problem. Isolate and identify the problems, not the symptoms. State the research questions and research objectives. Determine the unit of analysis Determine the relevant variables 3 Establish research objectives. What information is needed to solve the problem? Set objectives associated with this information. I keep six honest serving men, (they taught me all I knew), their names are what, and why, and when, and how, and where and who.” --Rudyard Kipling 4 Determine research design Exploratory Research – unstructured, informal, and sometimes intuitive Descriptive Research – very common in marketing research – descriptive in nature – involves communication and/or observation for data collection – lends itself to statistical analysis 4 Determine research design Causal Research establish cause and effect relationship problem: multiple causes and effects problem: hard to isolate involves experiments e.g., pretest, posttest, control groups Education Income Happiness 4 Research Design. . Exploratory Descriptive Causal DEGREE OF PROBLEM DEFINITION Exploratory Research (Unaware of Problem) “Our sales are declining and we don’t know why.” “Would people be interested in our new product idea?” Descriptive Research (Aware of Problem) Causal Research (Problem Clearly Defined) “What kind of people are buying “Will buyers purchase more of our product? Who buys our our products in a new package? competitor’s product?” “Which of two advertising “What features do buyers prefer campaigns is more effective?” in our product?” 4 Research Design - I Exploratory Research: Objective: Discovery of ideas and insights. Characteristics: Flexible, Versatile, Unstructured, Often the Front End of total Research Design, Small Non-representative Sample, Analyses typically qualitative. Findings: Tentative, typically followed by further exploratory, descriptive or causal research. Methods: Literature Search, Focus Groups, Experience Surveys, Pilot Surveys, Expert Interviews, Case Studies, Reliance on Secondary Data. 4 Research Design - II Descriptive Research: Objective: Describe Market Characteristics or Functions, Test Specific Hypotheses. Characteristics: Prior Formulation of Hypotheses, Preplanned, Formal and Structured Design, Information needed is predefined, Sample is Large and Representative, Data Analyses typically Quantitative. Findings: Making. Conclusive, used as input into Decision Methods: Surveys, Panels and Observation (Typically Primary Data). 4 Research Design - III Causal Research: Objective: Determine Cause and Effect Relationship, Test Specific Hypotheses. Characteristics: Manipulation of Independent Variables, and Control of Other Mediating Variables. Prior Formulation of Hypotheses, Preplanned, Formal and Structured Design, Information needed is predefined, Sample Representative, Data Analyses typically Quantitative. Findings: Making. Conclusive, used as input into Decision Methods: Experiments (Typically Primary Data) IDENTIFYING CAUSALITY A causal relationship is impossible to prove. Evidence of causality: 1. The appropriate causal order of events 2. Concomitant variation--two phenomena vary together 3. An absence of alternative plausible explanations If you do not know where you are going, any road will take you there. RESEARCH DESIGN MASTER PLAN FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION SPECIFIES METHODS AND PROCEDURES 5 Identify information types and sources Two types of information: – Secondary data information already collected for some other purpose internal or external typically used in exploratory research some key problems?? – Primary data information collected to specifically answer the problem observation or communication method 5 Information - Data Data - Known facts or things used as basis for inference; information; material to be processed and stored. Information - what is told, knowledge, news, charge or accusation. Data Information 5 Information Sources Four major sources. Intuition Authority Decision Making Process Research Experience 5 Marketing Research Data Secondary vs Primary Qualitative vs Quantitative Internal vs External Secondary Primary Anecdotes Experience Case studies Opinions, etc. Focus groups Interviews projection techniques, etc. Census Syndicated data Journals Magazines, etc. Surveys Observations Experiments Tests, etc. Qualitative Quantitative 5 Marketing Research Data Marketing Research Data Secondary Data Qualitative Data Descriptive Survey data Observation Primary data Quantitative data Causal Experiment 6 Determine methods of accessing data Depends on what kind of data is needed Methods different for secondary data collection than for primary data collection, e.g., – Secondary data - library, internet, buy syndicated data, CD-ROM, etc. – Primary data - mail, telephone, mall intercept, door-to-door, etc. Data Collection Qualitative Research Objective: To gain understanding of the underlying reasons and motives (Exploratory stage). Sample: Small number, nonrepresentative. Method: Unstructured. Analyses: Nonstatistical. Outcome: Develop initial understanding. Data Collection Quantitative Research Objective: To quantify the data, and generalize the results to the population of interest. Sample: Large numbers, Representative. Method: Structured. Analyses: Statistical. Outcome: Recommend a final course of action. Data Collection - Methods Direct Indirect (Nondisguised) (Disguised) Focus Groups Association Qualitative Data Depth Interviews Completio n Construction Projective Techniques Expressive Data Collection - Methods Quantitative/ Primary Data Communication Observation Versatility Speed Cost Objectivity Accuracy Relevant for: Demographics, Socioeconomic, Psychological/Lifestyle Characteristics; Attitudes, Opinions, Awareness, Knowledge, Intentions, Motivations, and Behavior. Data Collection - Methods Communication or Surveys Telephone In Home Traditional Telephone CATI Personal Mall Intercept Mail Interview Mail CAPI Mail panel Data Collection Methods - Comparison Criteria Flexibility of data collection M Diversity of Questions Use of physical stimuli Quantity of data Response rate Speed Cost Interviewer bias Sample control Field force control Sensitive Information L=Low, H=High, M=Medium. Telephone H L L L M H M M M/H M H Personal L H H H/M H M/H M/H H M/H L/M L Mail M M M/H L/M L L No L/M H H Data Collection - Methods Observation Personal Observation Mechanical Observation Audit Content Analyses Trace Analyses Data Collection - Methods Experiments - Test Marketing. Simulated, Controlled, Standard, and National Rollout. Factor Laboratory Environment Realistic Control Reactive Error Demand Artifact Internal Validity External Validity Time Number of Units Implementation Ease Cost Artificial High High High High Low Short Small High Low Field Low Low Low Low High Long Large Low High 7 Design data collection forms Depends on type of research being conducted Some key issues: Structured or unstructured Disguised or undisguised Number of questions. Wording and sequencing of questions. Types of Variables Categorical Continuous Dependent Independent Measurement Instrument Communication methods typically use a questionnaire as the instrument. The questionnaire must motivate the respondents to cooperate, become involved, and provide complete and accurate answers. Measurement Instrument 1. 2. 3. 4. Specify the information needed Type of interviewing method Content of individual questions Design the questions to overcome inability and unwillingness 5. Decide on the question structure 6. Determine the question wording 7. Arrange the questions in proper order 8. Identify the form and layout 9. Reproduce the questionnaire 10. Eliminate bugs by pretesting. Measurement Instruments Marketers want to measure: Demographics/Socioeconomic Characteristics Psychographics and Lifestyles Personality Motivation Consumer knowledge regarding Product - Awareness, Attribute and Price. Purchase - Where and When of purchase. Usage - Usage operations and situations. Past Behavior, Attitudes and Opinions, Behavioral Intentions, etc. Measurement Scales 1. Nominal - identify and classify (Sex, user-nonuser, etc.; Descriptive - percentage and mode; Inferential - Chi-square, binomial tests) 2. Ordinal - relative position but not magnitude of difference (Quality/ preference ranking, market position, etc.; Descriptive - %, median; Inferential - Rank-order Correlation, Friedman ANOVA) Measurement Scales 3. Interval - differences, arbitrary zero point. (Temp, attitudes, opinions, index numbers, etc.; Descriptive - range, mean, standard deviation; Inferential - Correlation, t-tests, ANOVA, regression, and multivariate analyses). 4. Ratio - fixed zero point, ratios. (Length, weight, age, income, sales, market share, etc.; Descriptive geometric & harmonic mean; Inferential - Coefficient of variation) Measurement Scales Attitudes, Opinions , Preferences and Perceptions. “When you can measure what you are speaking about and express it in numbers, you know something about it.” Lord Kelvin. Scales should be evaluated for reliability and validity. Measurement Scales Operationalization of scales for measuring Attitudes, Opinions , Preferences and Perceptions. Usually an adaptation of Interval scale. 1. Continuous rating scale - mark on a continuous line. 2. Itemized Rating Scale, e.g., Likert Scale - five point (Strongly agree to Strongly disagree) scale. Semantic differential scale - seven point scales with bipolar labels. Staple scale - Unipolar ten-point scale, -5 to +5, without a neutral 8 Determine sample plan and size Who are you going to sample -respondent? How many are you going to sample - sample size? Depends upon – Time – Money – Response rate – Type of data collection form Some key terms - sample elements, sample frame, sampling plans, sample size. SAMPLING SUBSET OF POPULATION WHO IS TO BE SAMPLED HOW LARGE A SAMPLE HOW WILL SAMPLE UNITS BE SELECTED Sampling Sampling Techniques: 1. Nonprobability: Convenience, Judgmental, Quota, and Snowball Sampling. 2. Probability: Simple, Systematic, Stratified (Proportionate, Disproportionate), Cluster (One-stage, Two-stage), and Others. 9 Collect data Trained interviewers Questionnaires Data collection companies Avoid non-sampling errors 10 Analyze data Give meaning to raw data - interpretation Involves - data cleaning, coding, tabulation, crosstabulation, statistical tests, & interpretation. Descriptive statistics - frequencies, mean, median, mode, SD, etc. Statistical analysis – tests of association - cross tabs, correlation, regression, etc. – Test of difference - t-test, f-test, ANOVA etc. Presentation HYPOTHESIS AN UNPROVEN PROPOSITION A POSSIBLE SOLUTION TO A PROBLEM GUESS Data Analyses Preliminary data analyses plan. Questionnaire checking. Editing (field and office). Coding. Transcribing. Data cleaning. Statistical adjustments. Selecting a data analyses strategy. Data Analyses Descriptive statistics: 1. Frequencies (simple count). 2. Mean (average), median (50% point), mode (most frequent occurrence). 3. Standard deviation (Sq. root of variance), variance (mean squared deviation from). 4. Skewness (quirks in data). Data Analyses Two basic tests of relationships: 1. Tests of Association. e.g., is purchase behavior related with (or dependent on) income or gender. 2. Tests of Differences. e.g., do men differ from women in the way they buy food, cloths, shoes, or the way they view life, or their readership or viewership habits etc. Data Analyses Tests of Association. Cross Tabulation (Chi Square), Correlations and Regressions, ANOVA etc. Data Analyses Tests of Differences. T-tests, ANOVA, Discriminant etc. Data Analyses Advanced Multivariate Techniques. Some examples: ANOVA, MANOVA, Multiple Regressions; Factor Analyses, Cluster Analyses, Discriminant Analyses; Multidimensional Scaling; Conjoint Analysis; Structural (Causal) Modeling. 11 Prepare and present final research report Communicate study results to client Importance cannot be underestimated! Determine exactly how information should be presented - oral versus written. Some tools for presenting data and results: – frequency tables – charts and graphs – mean tables, etc. RESEARCH PROPOSAL A WRITTEN STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN THAT INCLUDES A STATEMENT EXPLAINING THE PURPOSE OF THE STUDY. DETAILED OUTLINE OF PROCEDURES ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTICULAR METHODOLOGY