MIT
ICAT
Capacity Constraints and the
Dynamics of Transition in the
US Air Transportation
Prof. R. John Hansman
Alexandra Mozdzanowska, Philippe Bonnefoy
MIT Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
rjhans@mit.edu
MIT
ICAT
Simple Model of NAS Capability
Transition Dynamics
System
Behavior
Demand
Catalytic
Event
System
Capability
Awareness Building
Process
Implementation
Process
Stakeholder
Awareness
Public
Awareness
Selected
Actions
Change Process
Historically Transition Driven by Catalytic Accidents
What is Capacity Analogue?
Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska
Passenger Traffic by Region
Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers by Region
1400
1200
North America
RPK (billion)
1000
Europe
800
Asia and
Pacific
Latin America
& Caribbean
Middle East
600
400
Africa
200
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Data source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers (through 2005)
2010
Trends in Aircraft Size
Data source: Form 41 Traffic data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics (US carriers)
MIT
ICAT
U.S. Public Use Airports
WWII
NEPA
Dereg
Source: CAA statistical handbook of aviation, FAA statistical handbook of aviation, BTS
U.S. Public Use & Certificated
Airports
R Public use airports decreasing at ~ 22 a year
R Certificated airports decreasing at ~5 a year
US Flight Delays
from 1995 to 2007
Data source: FAA Operational Network (OPSNET)
Flight Cancellations
MIT
ICAT
2000
from 2000 to 2007 (by month)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: DOT, Air Travel Consumer Report, http://airconsumer.ost.dot.gov/ & BTS On Time Performance data
(top 11 airlines from 2000 to 2002, top 20 airlines from 2003 to 2007)
2007
Growth Limits
Constraints vs Damping
Upside: Capacity, Market
Downside: Financial
Capacity Limit Factors
y
Airport Capacity
R
R
R
R
y
Runways
Gates
Landside Limits (including Security)
Weather
Airspace Capacity
R Airspace Design
R Controller Workload
R Balkanization
y
Demand
R Peak Demand
R Hub & Spoke Networks
y
Environmental Limits
R Noise (relates to Airport)
R Emissions (local, Ozone, NOX, CO2)
Airport System
Capacity Limit Factors
y
Arrival/Departure Routes
y
Runways
y
Weather
R Capacity Variability
y
Gates
y
Downstream Constraints
y
Controller Workload
y
Landside Limits
R Terminals
R Road Access
y
Environmental
R Community Noise
R Emissions
y
Safety
Adaptive System - Impedance Matching
Key Terminal System Flows
(adaptive system - impedance matching)
Add’l Pax
Screen
Gate
Boarding
Security
Check
Passengers
Check-In
Ckd Bag
Screen
Bags/Cargo
Ground
Transport
Gates
Bag Claim
Security
Point
Airside
Drop-off
Parking
Landside
Pick-up
Parking
MIT
ICAT
Airport System
Capacity Limit Factors
y
Arrival/Departure Routes
y
Runways
y
Weather
R Capacity Variability
y
Gates
y
Downstream Constraints
y
Controller Workload
y
Landside Limits
R Terminals
R Road Access
y
Environmental
R Community Noise
R Emissions
y
Safety
Separation Requirements for
Arrival (Same Runway)
y Wake Turbulence Requirement
Radar Separation Requirements
Trailing Aircraft
Leading
Aircraft
Heavy
B757
Large
Small
Heavy
4
4
3(2.5)
3(2.5)
Large
5
4
3(2.5)
3(2.5)
Small
5
5
4
3(2.5)
Visual Separation Requirements
‹ Pilots Discretion
y Preceding arrival must be clear of runway at touchdown
Runway Occupancy Time Limit
A-380
Breakeven Separation for Airport Throughput?
Airport System
Capacity Limit Factors
y
Arrival/Departure Routes
y
Runways
y
Weather
R Capacity Variability
y
Gates
y
Downstream Constraints
y
Controller Workload
y
Landside Limits
R Terminals
R Road Access
y
Environmental
R Community Noise
R Emissions
y
Safety
Airport Capacity Envelopes
Atlanta (ATL)
ASPM - April 2000 - Visual Approaches
VFR
Calculated VMC Capacity
100,100
Optimum Rate (ATL)
Each dot represents one
hour of actual traffic
during April 2000
120
ASPM - April 2000 - Instrument Approaches
IFR
Arrivals per Hour
100
Calculated IMC Capacity
84,90
Reduced Rate (ATL)
80
60
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Departures per Hour
Source: FAA Benchmark Data
Airport Capacity Envelopes
Boston (BOS)
100
VFR
90
ASPM - Jul/Aug 2000 - Visual
Approaches
Calculated VMC Capacity
68,50
80
Arrivals per Hou
ASPM - Apr 2000 - Visual Approaches
70
Optimum Rate (BOS)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Departures per Hour
100
ASPM - Apr 2000 - Instrument Approaches
IFR
90
80
ASPM - Jul/Aug 2000 - Instrument Approaches
Calculated IMC Capacity
Reduced Rate (BOS)
Arrivals per Hou
70
60
44,44
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Departures per Hour
80
90
100
Source: FAA Benchmark Data
Variable Capacity Effects
Data from FAA Capacity Office, CY95
60
SFO
50
40
LGA
STL
EWR
ORD
30
LAX
DFW
ATL
BOS
20
JFK
IAH
10
SJU
CLT
PIT
MEM
HNL
0
0
200000
400000
PHX
DEN
LAS
600000
800000
1000000
Total Operations (CY95)
1995 Delays vs Operations
From John Andrews, MIT Lincoln Lab
QuickTime™ and a
Microsoft Video 1 decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Network Effects and Delay
Propagation
Source: ASDI data
Delays at Chicago O’Hare
ORD: Total Delays
16000
14000
Total Delays
12000
2004
10000
2003
8000
2002
6000
2001
4000
2000
2000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Source: FAA OPSNET data
Flight Delays Reemerging
OPSNET National Delays
60000
Total Delays
50000
2004
40000
2003
30000
2002
2001
20000
2000
10000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Source: FAA OPSNET data
Solutions to Address
Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy
“Do Nothing”: Delay Homeostasis
System view
Regulation Based
Mechanism
Demand
Range restrictions
Operation Type
restrictions
Other ?
Slot control
Demand Management
Secondary market
trading
Passenger Traffic
Market Based
Mechanism
Aircraft
movements
Congestion pricing
Auction
Other ?
Demand/Supply
Inadequacy
Debanking
Changes in Infrastructure
Utilization
Efficiency Improvement
Demand Diversion:
Secondary Airport Emergence
Airport Capacity
Capacity Enhancement
Source: Philippe Bonnefoy
Airport Capacity Expansion
24
Concrete Solution (BOS)
Current Airport Expansion Projects
SEA: 39 years +
46% improvement
BOS: 37 years
ORD: 2 years
PHL: 3 years
LAX: ~10 years
IAD: ~10 years
STL: 8 years
48% improvement
ATL: ~15 years
33% improvement
Top 30 Congested Airports in 2005
Expansion Projects
Multi-Stakeholder Transition Model
with Implementation Barriers
Demand
Catalytic
Event
Delays
System
Capability
Implementation
Process
Safety and Environmental
Approval Processes
Solution
Refinement Loop
Awareness Building
Process
Stakeholder
Awareness
Capability
Options
Public
Awareness
Change Process
Negotiation
Loop
Collective
Decisions
Decision Making
Stakeholder
Preferences
Objective
Formation
Stakeholder
Values, Context
Stakeholder
Decisions
Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska
Environmental Limitations
Noise
Emissions
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Airport Construction in Key Areas
has Slowed
1970: NEPA passed requiring EIS
Airport Opening Date
(top 30 airports in 2005)
Capacity Improvement at OEP Airports
(2000 vs 2006 Delay Rankings)
Year: 2000
Airport
code
LGA
EWR
ORD
SFO
BOS
PHL
JFK
ATL
IAH
DFW
PHX
LAX
IAD
STL
DTW
CVG
MSP
MIA
SEA
LAS
DCA
BWI
MCO
CLT
PIT
SAN
DEN
SLC
TPA
MEM
Year: 2006
Percentage of OEP new runway project
Percentage of
OEP new runway project
(date completion /
Airport Code Airport name
operations
(date completion/
operations
capacity benefit)
delayed
capacity benefit)
delayed
EWR
Newark
12.0%
LaGuardia
15.6%
Newark
8.1%
LGA
LaGuardia
9.1%
Chicago
6.3%
ORD
Chicago
6.9%
TBD
San Francisco
5.7%
JFK
Kennedy
6.0%
Boston
4.8%
2006 / +2%
PHL
Philadelphia
5.6%
2007 / Delay Reduction
Philadelphia
4.5%
ATL
Atlanta
5.1%
2006 / 33%
Kennedy
3.9%
BOS
Boston
2.9%
2006 / Delay Reduction
Atlanta
3.1%
2006 / +33%
SFO
San Francisco
2.9%
Houston
2.8%
IAH
Houston
2.5%
Dallas/Ft.Worth
2.4%
LAS
Las Vegas
2.4%
Phoenix
2.2%
CLT
Charlotte
1.3%
Los Angeles
2.2%
PHX
Phoenix
1.1%
Dulles
2.0%
DFW
Dallas/Ft.Wort
0.9%
St. Louis
1.8%
2006 / +48 %
DTW
Detroit
0.9%
Detroit
1.8%
MDW
Midway
0.9%
Cincinnati
1.5%
2005 / +12 %
IAD
Dulles
0.6%
2008 / 12%
Minn./St. Paul
1.3%
2005 / +19 %
DCA
Reagan Nation
0.6%
Miami
1.1%
SLC
Salt Lake City
0.4%
Seattle
1.0%
2008 / +46 %
LAX
Los Angeles
0.4%
2007 / NA
Las Vegas
0.8%
SEA
Seattle
0.4%
2008 / 46%
Reagan National
0.8%
MIA
Miami
0.4%
Balt.-Wash. Intl
0.7%
MEM
Memphis
0.4%
Orlando
0.6%
MSP
Minn./St. Paul
0.3%
Charlotte
0.6%
2008 / +11%
CVG
Cincinnati
0.3%
Pittsburgh
0.4%
DEN
Denver
0.3%
San Diego
0.3%
BWI
Balt.-Wash. Int
0.2%
Denver
0.2%
MCO
Orlando
0.2%
Salt Lake City
0.2%
PIT
Pittsburgh
0.1%
Tampa
0.2%
STL
St.
Louis
0.0%
2006 / 48%
Memphis
0.0%
Data source: [Delay data: FAA Operational Network, OPSNET], [Capacity improvement: FAA Operational Evolution Plan OEP].
30
Airport
name
Runway, Runway Extensions, Reconfigurations or New
Airports with Environmental Impact Statements or Planning
Studies Underway
Data source: [Capacity improvement: FAA Operational Evolution Plan OEP].
31
MIT
ICAT
Solutions to Address
Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy
“Do Nothing”: Delay Homeostasis
System view
Regulation Based
Mechanism
Demand
Range restrictions
Operation Type
restrictions
Other ?
Slot control
Demand Management
Secondary market
trading
Passenger Traffic
Market Based
Mechanism
Aircraft
movements
Congestion pricing
Auction
Other ?
Demand/Supply
Inadequacy
Debanking
Changes in Infrastructure
Utilization
Efficiency Improvement
Demand Diversion:
Secondary Airport Emergence
Airport Capacity
Capacity Enhancement
Source: Philippe Bonnefoy
Airport Capacity Expansion
32
Emergence of Secondary Airports
MIT
ICAT
“Southwest Effect”
MSP
MHT
DTW
ORD
BOS
PVD
MDW
OAK/
SJC
BWI
STL
SFO
PHL
ISP
LGA / JFK / EWR
IAD
CVG
DCA
BUR
ONT
LAX
SNA
LGB
PHX
DFW
DAL
ATL
IAH
HOU
Original Core airport
FLL
MIA
Emerged Core airport
Secondary airport
New York
Regional Airport System
New York Regional Airport
System - Temporal Demand
Regional airport system: Five airports combined
180
160
Arrival Rate (per hour)
140
00:00 - 06:00
120
6:00 - 10:00
100
10:00 - 14:00
14:00 - 18:00
80
18:00 - 22:00
60
22:00 - 00:00
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Departure Rate (per hour)
”Flow” of departure and arrivals:
morning (dep.>arr., dep. to west coast)
rebalances throughout the day with arrivals from west coast
move back closer to ½ - ½ with departures to Europe in the evening
Terminal areas at capacity (closer to
capacity) in the 16:00 – 20:00 time
window
Philippe Bonnefoy: Analysis of Pareto Frontiers of Multi-Airport Systems
New York SDO Operations
MIT
ICAT Wake Implications of Tight RNP Routes ?
MIT
ICAT
y
Arrival/Departure Routes
y
Runways
y
Weather
R
Capacity Variability
y
Gates
y
Downstream Constraints
y
Controller Workload
y
Landside Limits
R
R
y
Environmental
R
R
y
Terminals
Road Access
Community Noise
Emissions
Safety
Airport System
Capacity Limit Factors
Solutions to Address
Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy
“Do Nothing”: Delay Homeostasis
System view
Regulation Based
Mechanism
Demand
Range restrictions
Operation Type
restrictions
Other ?
Slot control
Demand Management
Secondary market
trading
Passenger Traffic
Market Based
Mechanism
Aircraft
movements
Congestion pricing
Auction
Other ?
Demand/Supply
Inadequacy
Debanking
Changes in Infrastructure
Utilization
Efficiency Improvement
Demand Diversion:
Secondary Airport Emergence
Airport Capacity
Capacity Enhancement
Source: Philippe Bonnefoy
Airport Capacity Expansion
38
Delay Homeostasis
Regional
Economy
Flight
Schedules
Demand
Delays
Catalytic
Event
System
Capability
Implementation
Process
Safety and Environmental
Approval Processes
Solution
Refinement Loop
Awareness Building
Process
Stakeholder
Awareness
Capability
Options
Public
Awareness
Change Process
Stakeholder
Scheduling
Decisions
Negotiation
Loop
Collective
Decisions
Decision Making
Stakeholder
Preferences
Objective
Formation
Stakeholder
Values, Context
Crisis Driven Transition
Capacity Crisis Stimulus?
Catalytic
Event
System
Demand
System
Capability
Awareness Building
Process
Implementation
Process
Stakeholder
Awareness
Public
Awareness
Selected
Actions
Change Process
Historically Transition Driven by Catalytic Accidents
What is Capacity Analogue?
Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska
LGA Air 21 Impact
LaGuardia Airport
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Maximum Hourly
Operations Based on
Current Airspace &
ATC Design
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Time of Day
Historic Movements
AIR-21 Induced Svc.
Source: William DeCota, Port Authority of New York
Classic Delay vs Demand Curve
DELAY
Non-Linear
Region
Linear
Region
Capacity
Limit
DEMAND
Capacity
Limit
DELAY
LGA
DEMAND
Internalized vs externalized costs
Source: William DeCota, Port Authority of New York
Flight Delays at LGA
from 2000 to 2006
Source: FAA OPSNET data
MIT
ICAT
Demand Management
Only Rapid Public Action
Regional
Economy
Delays
Demand
Demand
Management
Implementation
Process
Catalytic
Event
System
Capability
Safety and Environmental
Approval Processes
Solution
Awareness Building
Process
Stakeholder
Awareness
Capability
Options
Public
Awareness
Change Process
Negotiation
Loop
Collective
Decision Making
Stakeholder
Preferences
Objective
Formation
Stakeholder
Values, Context
Solutions to Address
Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy
“Do Nothing”: Delay Homeostasis
System view
Regulation Based
Mechanism
Demand
Range restrictions
Operation Type
restrictions
Other ?
Slot control
Demand Management
Secondary market
trading
Passenger Traffic
Market Based
Mechanism
Aircraft
movements
Congestion pricing
Auction
Other ?
Demand/Supply
Inadequacy
Debanking
Changes in Infrastructure
Utilization
Efficiency Improvement
Demand Diversion:
Secondary Airport Emergence
Airport Capacity
Capacity Enhancement
Source: Philippe Bonnefoy
Airport Capacity Expansion
46
MIT
ICAT
Conclusions
y Capacity will not expand to meet demand at key airports
R “Capacity Crisis”
y Delay Adaptation will occur when delay market works
R Secondary Airports
R Scheduling
y There will be a capacity crisis
R Unclear what the public catalytic stimulus will be
y Number of demand managed airports will increase
y Need good understanding of alternatives
y Regional economic impact is not clear
Relationship Between Economy
and Air Transportation
Direct / Indirect / Induced employment effects
Economy
Travel/Freight
Need
Financial Equity/
Debt Markets
Economic Enabling Effect
(Access to people / markets / ideas / capital)
Demand
Supply
Pricing & Schedule
Airlines
Revenue/Profitability
Air Transportation System
Vehicle Capability
NAS
Capability
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