En Route Automation Infrastructure In
Transition
Presented at NEXTOR’s
NAS Infrastructure in Transition Conference
Reza Eftekari
June 13, 2006
1
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
From NAS to NGATS: Much More
Definition is Needed
Re-ERAM?
t
En
ris
p
r
e
re
u
t
c
ite
h
rc
eA
OEP
Vision
cy e
n
e nc
g
A ida
Gu
NGATS
ERAM Releases/Follow-on?
or Pre-NGATS?
NAS
2
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
ERAM Baseline and Releases
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
ERAM
Baseline
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
Release 1
Sys Engineering
Software
Integration
and Test
Key Site
Deployment
Release 2
Capabilities Defined
Release 2 (~80K SLOC)
Release 3
Capabilities Defined
Release 3
…
Some Candidate Functional Enhancements
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
3
ICAO Flight Plan Enhancements
RNP/Advanced Airspace
TFM Integration
Advanced Simulation for Controller Training
Decision Support / Integrated Sector Ops
Datalink Services
ADS-B Applications
ERAM API Enhancements
SWIM Integration
Non-Radar
Estimated at
> 1 Million SLOC
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
Factors Influencing Potential Change
Magnitude
Factors Influencing Change Magnitude
Resources
1
Change Dependencies
0.8
Productivity
0.6
Code Quality
0.4
System Stability
0.2
0
Function Criticality
Build Interval
Performance Margin
Modularity
Complexity
4
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
Estimated Relative Size of
ERAM Release 2 Candidates (not prioritized)
by Bin Categories
En Route Improvements
NAS-Wide Improvements
Test & Training
Maintainability,
M&C
NAS Operational Improvement
Support
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
En Route
Infrastructure
Controller
Productivity/CHI
En Route
Operational
Improvement
TFM Reroutes
Temporary Flow Restrictions
Mexico, Canada I/F
ICAO flight plan
Initial ADS-B Surveillance
HAR/NAR – Adapted RNP separation
A380
NAS Infrastructure
•
•
•
•
•
SUA/SAA constraint access
HADDS/SAFA replacement
Flight Object – Route info expansion
FDIO replacement
SWIM integration
200K + 50K SLOC Total*
5
* CAASD Estimate
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
ERAM Releases
Estimated Demand & Proposed Bandwidth*
Release 2
Release 3
Release 4**
Release 5**
Release 6**
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
R2
Demand
R2
BW
R3
Demand
R3
BW
R4
Demand
R4
BW
R5
Demand
R5
BW
R6
Demand
R6
BW
(Bandwidth)
NAS Infrastructure
NAS Operational Improvement
ER Improvement – Known & Unknown
ER Improvement – Known
ER Improvement – Unknown
6
Problem Correction
**
**Not
Not part
part of
of the
the
Existing
Existing
ERAM
ERAM Contract
Contract
* Upper Bound - based on
CAASD experience & s/w
design rules
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
ERAM Release Change Magnitude:
The Message
•
Magnitude of potential change exceeds current planning and
projected resources
– ERAM resource planning includes 80K source lines of code (SLOC)
of software development for each of the Releases (R2 and R3)
• ~ 40 KSLOC for enhancements
• ~ 40 KSLOC for fixes
7
•
NAS-level prioritization, in line with NGATS objectives, is
essential
•
Need to examine the feasibility of increasing the
bandwidth/capacity for development of new capabilities
•
Need to start developing plans for implementing enhancements
beyond Release 3
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
Some Conventional Wisdom
• If you change more than ~ 1/3, you might as well start
over
• Maximum change between builds ~ 20% (but not safety
critical systems!)
• Annual change traffic is 10-15% for commercial systems
• Large system developments can take 4 years to stabilize;
start to decay after 9 years*
– Latent defect removal continues after deployment;
performance is refined and optimized
– After ~ 9 years, change magnitude exceeds scope &
extensibility of original architecture/design; software
technology/system paradigms move on
• At some point in time, expect replacement or major refactoring
*Roetzheim, William, Estimating and Managing Project Scope for Maintenance
And Reuse Projects, Crosstalk, December 2004
8
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
TFM / En Route Evolution: Integration
Opportunities (1/3)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
S/W Development, Test, and integration More timely
TFM –M
Baseline
Enhancements
departure clearance
R1
changes
from TMIs,
R2
R3
reduced delays, and
More accurate
Requirements and S/W Develop
increased controller
prediction of flow
WP2
WP1
productivity
problems, common
situational awareness,
and more efficient
Cross Domain
TMIs
Functional
Capabilities
Common
Adaptation (e.g.,
Alt Restrictions,
LOAs, SOPs)
Pre-Departure
Reroutes,
Improved TDLS /
PDC Interface,
Dynamic
Adaptation Status
Airborne
Reroutes Data
Link
URET/ERAM Centralized Adaptation Repository
ERAM
S/W Development, Test, and integration
IOC
Enhancements
R2
2012-2015
TFM Constraint
Exchange
and Greater
Automated
Execution of
TMIs
More coordinated
TFM & ATC
decisions, reduced
controller workload
and delays
Site
Waterfall
Requirements and S/W Develop
2011
Automated aircraftspecific reroutes
from TMIs, better
reroutes, reduced
delays, and
reduced controller
workload WP4
WP3
R4
R3
R5
Note: Schedule dates are best information based on a mix of targets, and contractual dates
9
Decision Points
Estimated / Unplanned Milestone
Planned Milestone
Points of Integration
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
TFM / En Route Evolution: Integration
Opportunities (2/3)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012-2015
S/W Development, Test, and integration
TFM –M
Baseline
R1
R2
R3
Requirements and S/W Develop
Enhancements
WP4
WP3
WP2
WP1
• Changes in controller roles and
responsibilities (i.e., Control by exception)
Integrated
enabling traffic
Probabilistic
TFM growth and ATC productivity.
MIT Impact
Other High
route
TFM
Assessment
Assessment
Priority • TMIs automatically generated using
probabilities of demand and capacity
Precision conflict
Enhancements
Sector
ADS-B
imbalances in order to minimize delays.
resolutions and
by Domain
Surveillance, Integration &
EnRoute airspace enabling
• High performance
robust conflict
Data Link
ERAM API
detection, full ADS-B
reduced separation standards to
accommodate
expected
trafficRepository
growth
URET/ERAM
Centralized
Adaptation
Leads to:
ERAM
S/W Development, Test, and integration
IOC
Enhancements
Site
Waterfall
Requirements and S/W Develop
R2
R4
R3
R5
Note: Schedule dates are best information based on a mix of targets, and contractual dates
10
Decision Points
Estimated / Unplanned Milestone
Planned Milestone
Points of Integration
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
TFM / En Route Evolution: Integration
Opportunities (3/3)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012-2015
S/W Development, Test, and integration
TFM –M
Baseline
R1
R2
R3
Requirements and S/W Develop
Enhancements
Decision
Points
WP3
WP2
WP1
WP4
Enhancement
Release
Content
Definition
Adaptation
Design
e.g. Execute Reroutes, Data Link,
sector integration, ADS-B
URET/ERAM Centralized Adaptation Repository
ERAM
S/W Development, Test, and integration
IOC
Enhancements
Site
Waterfall
Requirements and S/W Develop
R2
R4
R3
R5
Note: Schedule dates are best information based on a mix of targets, and contractual dates
11
Decision Points
Estimated / Unplanned Milestone
Planned Milestone
Points of Integration
© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.