NAS Operational Analyses and
Challenges to Modeling the Future
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Operations Planning
Vice President
Vicki Cox - Acting
Systems
Engineering
Office
Performance
Analysis
Office
International
Office
Technology
Development
Office
Forecasts &
Operations Analysis
Strategy
Office
Business Outlook
Aviation
Research
& Development
Office
William J.
Hughes
Technical
Center
NAS
Weather
Office
Operational
Evolution
Plan
Office
Strategy Development
& Analysis
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
ATO Strategy and NAS Performance
ATO-P Strategic Analysis
Capability
NAS Strategy
Simulator
ATO-P
Forecast Tool
ATO NAS
Performance
Tools
ACES/NASPAC/etc
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Why have Trajectory
Based Forecast?
• Keeps lots of O.R. analysts in business!
•Drives focus on flows and en route constraints
•Helps revenue estimates
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Annual NAS Traffic Change
– Traffic increased 5.9% from CY00 to CY05.
Total Center Traffic - ETMS
50000000
45000000
Boundary Crossings
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Center Level Changes
20%
Center % Traffic Change CY00-CY05
18%
15%
13% 12%
12%
9%
10%
8%
8% 8% 8%
8%
6%
6%
5%
5%
1%
0% 0%
0%
0%
-1%
ZTL
ZSE
ZOB
ZOA
ZNY
ZMP
ZME
ZMA
ZLC
ZLA
ZKC
ZJX
ZID
ZHU
ZFW
ZDV
ZDC
ZBW
ZAU
-5%
ZAN
-2% -3%
ZAB
% Change
11%
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
User Class Changes
User Class % Change CY00-CY05
13%
9.73%
9.06%
8%
%Change
3.40%
1.79%
3%
-2%
-7%
-8.91%
-12%
GA JET
GA Piston
GA Turbo
Total GA
Commercial
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Regional Carrier Changes
55%
Regional vs. Other Commercial Traffic
% Change CY00-CY05
46.91%
45%
% Change
35%
25%
15%
5%
-1.93%
-5%
Regional Carriers
Other Commercial
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Commercial Mainline vs. LCC
Mainline vs. LCC % Change CY00-CY05
35%
26%
25%
% Change
15%
5%
-5%
-15%
-25%
-20%
-35%
Mainline
Low Cost
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
250000
Oct-04
270000
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
Oct-03
Jul-03
Apr-03
Jan-03
Oct-02
Jul-02
Apr-02
350000
Jan-02
Oct-01
Jul-01
Apr-01
Jan-01
Oct-00
Jul-00
Apr-00
Jan-00
Operations
Independence Air at ZDC
Total ZDC Operations
330000
310000
290000
Independence
Air
230000
210000
190000
170000
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Flight Level Workload Changes
Traffic By Altitude
(CY00-CY05)
120%
110%
100%
% Change
80%
60%
40%
20%
15%
20%
0%
-1%
-20%
LOW_ATL
Low: <280
HIGH_ALT
SUPER_HIGH
TOTAL HIGH
High: >= 280 and <= 390 Super High: >390
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Low Altitude Workload Changes
(By Center)
-20 -15 -10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
% Change CY’00-CY’05
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
High Altitude Workload Changes
(By Center)
-20 -15 -10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
% Change CY’00-CY’05
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Why have Seasonal Forecasting?
• Demand
– Seasonal schedules
– Peak vs. Low traffic months
– Seasonal impacts on workload
• Operational Constraints
– Seasonal constraints
– NAS delay procedures
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Seasonal Schedules
15000
Winter
Scheduled Arrivals
14500
Spring
Break
Spring
Break
Summer
Summer
14000
13500
13000
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
May-04
Mar-04
Jan-04
Nov-03
Sep-03
Jul-03
May-03
Mar-03
Jan-03
12500
Data: MIA (ASPM)
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Peak vs. Low Traffic Volume
% Difference in Traffic Volume CY05
(Peak Month vs. Low Month)
70%
60%
60%
56%
39%
40%
33%
31%
30%
27% 25%
22% 21% 21%
20%
20% 19%
17% 16% 16% 16%
16% 15% 15% 14%
13%
ZLA
ZAB
ZHU
ZDC
ZID
ZTL
ZME
ZOA
ZFW
ZKC
ZAU
ZOB
ZNY
ZDV
ZLC
ZMP
ZSE
ZJX
ZBW
0%
ZAN
10%
ZMA
% Difference
50%
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
60000
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-02
200000
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-01
Sep-00
May-00
Jan-00
Operations
Seasonal Impacts on Workload
ZMA vs. ZMP Operations
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Importance of Seasonal Forecasting
• Demand
– Seasonal schedules
– Peak vs. Low traffic months
– Seasonal impacts on workload
• Operational Constraints
– Seasonal constraints
– NAS delay procedures
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Seasonal Change in Constraints
% Late Flights OEP35
35%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Jul-05
Feb-04
Oct-02
May-01
0%
Jan-00
Late Flights (%)
30%
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Seasonal Constraints
IMC Operations and Conditions By Season
30%
26%
27%
25%
20%
15%
16%
16%
15%
17%
15%
15%
10%
5%
%IMC FLIGHTS
%IMC PERIODS
0%
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Seasonal Constraints
Convective Weather Index
300
250
CWI
200
150
100
50
0
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Modeling Challenges
• Where delay is taken vs. cause of delay
- En route congestion
• Convective weather case
• Annualizing results
• Interconnectivity of delay
•Uncertainty in demand
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Where Delay is Taken
Gate Delay vs. Airborne Delay By Season
16
14
Gate Dep. Delay
Airborne Delay
13.32
12.50
Delay (Minutes)
12
10
8.55
8.04
8
6
4
2
1.60
1.62
1.20
1.44
0
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Gate vs. Total Delay
- How much is driven by en route/convective congestion?
OEP35 Gate. Dep. Delay vs. OEP35 Gate Arrival Delay
18
16
12
10
8
6
4
2
Avg. Gate Dep. Delay
0
Avg. Gate Arrival Delay
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-02
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-01
Sep-00
May-00
-2
Jan-00
Delay (Minutes)
14
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
0
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
2000
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
Oct-03
Jul-03
Apr-03
Jan-03
Oct-02
Jul-02
Apr-02
Jan-02
Oct-01
Jul-01
Apr-01
Jan-01
Oct-00
Jul-00
Apr-00
Jan-00
Arrivals
16000
10000
15
8000
6000
10
Delay (Min.)
MIA Arrivals vs. Gate Delay
MIA Arrivals vs. Avg.Gate Dep. Delay
25
14000
12000
20
4000
Arrivals
5
GateDepDelay
0
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Interconnectivity of Delay
MIA Gate Arrival Delay vs. OEP 35 Gate Arrival Delay
18
16
MIA Gate Arr Delay
14
OEP35 Gate Arrival Delay
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
Oct-03
Jul-03
Apr-03
Jan-03
Oct-02
Jul-02
Apr-02
Jan-02
Oct-01
Jul-01
Apr-01
Jan-01
Oct-00
Jul-00
Apr-00
-2
Jan-00
Delay (Min.)
12
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Interconnectivity of Delay
M IA G ate Arriv al D e lay v s. O E P 35 G ate D e parture D e lay
18
16
M IA G ateA rrDelay
O E P 35 G ateDepDelay
12
10
8
6
4
2
J ul-05
Apr-05
J an-05
O c t-04
J ul-04
Apr-04
J an-04
O c t-03
J ul-03
Apr-03
J an-03
O c t-02
J ul-02
Apr-02
J an-02
O c t-01
J ul-01
Apr-01
J an-01
O c t-00
J ul-00
-2
Apr-00
0
J an-00
D elay (M in .)
14
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Forecast Uncertainties
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Summary
• Current FAA forecasts provide annual activity levels
• Current FAA forecasts assume aviation business
models stay the same
• Actual demand varies seasonally, daily, and hourly
• Aviation industry is fundamentally changing
• Understanding these changes is essential to preparing
for the future
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Current Demand Forecasting
Forecasted IFR Aircraft Handled
(2006 Forecasting Conference)
80000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
Military
General Aviation
10000
Air Taxi/Commuter
Air Carrier
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
Aircraft(Thousands)
70000
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Mainline Legacy Carriers
Main Line % Change CY00-CY05
100%
84%
80%
56%
40%
29%
20%
8%
0%
0%
-20%
-33%
-40%
Total Mainline
CONTINENTAL
NORTHWEST
AMERICAN
MIDWEST
ALASKA
SPIRIT
-60%
HAWAIIAN
-40%
-26%
U.S. Airways
-19%
United
-12%
DELTA
-6%
-20%
ALOHA
% Change
60%
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Low Cost Carriers
– Independence Air began flying in 2004.
Low Cost Carrier % Change CY00-CY05
200%
993%
112%
90%
100%
50%
26%
13%
0%
Total LCC
-7%
American
Trans
America
West
Airtran
Southwest
-50%
Frontier
-4%
Jet Blue
% Change
150%
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
ADJUSTED OPERATIONAL AVAILABILITY AT THE 35 OEP AIRPORTS
100.0
99.9
99.77
Percent Availability
99.8
99.7
99.6
99.5
99.5
99.4
99.3
99.2
99.1
99.0
98.9
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
FY 2005
6/20/2005
December 2005
Mar
Apr
FY 2006
May
June
YTD
July
Aug
Sept
YTD
Target
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Targ
Airport Weather by Category (OEP 35)
Percent Scheduled Operations
100%
90%
3.91
10.51
3.69
5.89
10.21
11.2
5.16
5.02
9.03
8.57
9.33
6.57
7.85
7.53
5.39
8.13
9.78
13.02
9.45
10.15
10.82
10.37
12.86
12.31
12.49
70%
60%
5.51
10.13
10.18
10.59
80%
3.15
74.37
80.09
77.87
73.52
76.36
76.26
75.67
71.85
70.03
FY 06
FY05
65.16
50%
FY04
FY05
October
FY04
November
None
6/20/2005
February 2005
FY05
FY04
FY05
December
Minor
Moderate
FY05
January
FY06
February
Severe
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
FY 2006 Category A&B Operational Errors
(Counts & Rates)
120
5.25
4.62
Rate per Million Activity
4.50
FY 2006 Performance Limit
4.27 per million activity
4.61
4.27
4.29
4.14
3.93
3.75
3.00
100
80
61
58
2.25
60
43
45
40
34
1.50
20
0.75
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.00
0
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
FY 06 Cat A&B Count
Performance Limit
FY 06 Estimated Rate
FY 05 Actual Rate
AUG
SEP
* FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated activity counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
ARRIVAL + DEPARTURE CAPACITY
AVERAGE DAILY CAPACITY AT THE EIGHT METROPOLITAN AREAS
72000
70424
70000
68000
6 8 ,7 5 0
66000
64000
62000
60000
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
FY 2006
6/20/2005
February 2005
Apr
May
YTD
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
YTD
Target
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Targ
6/20/2005
February 2005
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
FY 2006 Category A&B Runway Incursions
(Counts & Rates)
0.80
8
0.766
FY 2006 Performance Limit
.551 per million operations
0.70
Rate per Million Operations
0.60
0.50
7
6
0.551
5
0.493
4
0.412
0.40
0.340
4
0.377
3
0.30
3
0.20
2
1
1
0.10
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.00
0
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
FY 06 Cat A&B Count
Performance Limit
FY 06 Estimated Rate
FY 05 Actual Rate
AUG
SEP
* FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated operation counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
AVERAGE DAILY CAPACITY AT THE 35 OEP AIRPORTS
ARRIVAL + DEPARTURE CAPACITY
106000
105000
104000
103000
102000
101191
101000
101296
100000
99000
98000
97000
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
FY 2005
6/20/2005
February 2005
Mar
Apr
FY 2006
May
Jun
YTD
Jul
Aug
Sep
YTD
Target
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
Tar
OE: FY06 Critical Acquisitions on
Schedule and Budget
• FY06 85% Acquisition Target
– Cost Target: Ensure 85% of major baseline Capital Investment programs are within
10% of budget.
– Schedule Target: Ensure 85% of major Capital Investment programs meet established
activity milestone schedule dates
– Status
• Current FY06 Cost targets are within their 10% budget thresholds.
• 100 % of the 85% Schedule milestones are on schedule.
– Nine (9) of the 39 Final milestones (23%) have been completed on or
ahead of schedule through the December reporting period.
– Eight Interim milestones (57%) have also been completed through
December
• 39 milestones are being tracked against 31 programs for the FY06 85%
Acquisition Goal
• Fourteen (14) interim milestones are also tracked and not included as part of the
85% Acquisition Performance Goal Metric
• A total of 53 milestones will be statused each month (the 39 + the 14)
FAA
Air Traffic Organization
OE: Critical Acquisitions on
Schedule and Budget
– Four Final milestones are due in January.
FAA
Air Traffic Organization