Economic Contribution
of Civil Aviation (ECCA)
Cornelia Fischer
ICAO
Air Transport Bureau
Forecasting & Economic Planning Section
ECCA
World Bank
ECCA
DRAFT CIRCULAR 292
„
Volume I:
GLOBAL
PERSPECTIVE
„
Volume II:
ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGIES
VOL. I
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
„
Air transport services and economic
development
Air travel and international tourism
‹ Air cargo
‹
„
Global direct contribution of civil
aviation as business sector
‹
„
Airlines, airports, aerospace &
affiliates
Multiplier effects
Air carriers, other
aircraft operators
& affiliates
Airports,
air navigation
services
& affiliates
Passenger
travel
Direct Contribution of Civil Aviation
Other industries
& business
services
Aerospace
manufacturers &
affiliates
Freight & mail
transport
Direct employment
6 million jobs
Air carriers,
other aircraft
operators
& affiliates
Airports, air
navigation
services
& affiliates
1.9 million jobs
2.3 million jobs
1.8 million jobs
Direct economic contribution
US $ 370 billion
Source: ICAO
Aerospace
& other
manufacturing
industries
1998
Air Transport
Tourism and Freight
Business
C
A
T
A
L
Y
T
I
C
D
I
R
E
C
T
INDIRECT & INDUCED
Economic activity
US $1 360 billion
1998
Employment
27.7 million jobs
3.9 million
$320 billion
8.4 million
$390 billion
15.4 million
$650 billion
Direct
Catalytic
Indirect & Induced
Total Contribution of Air Transport
350
700
325
Revenue
300
610
Em ploym ent
600
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
100
200
100
50
0
100
0
Output multiplier 3.3
Job multiplier 6.1
VOL.II
ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGIES
„
Develop guidance material on how to assess
civil aviation’s economic contribution
‹
Regional economy = airport & vicinity
‹
National economy
ECCA REGIONAL ECONOMY
AIRPORT IMPACT ASSESSMENT
INPUT-OUTPUT (I/O) ANALYSES
CORE APPRAOCH
Simulate I/O Models
DEMONSTRATED:
2 Airport Studies
DERIVATIVE
Apply Impact Multipliers
DEMONSTRATED:
1 Airport Study
EXPANDED APPROACH
Simulate I/O Model
DEMONSTRATED:
2 Airport Studies
Interface between direct, indirect and induced demand effects (1)
Direct effects
Airport firms/organizations
Indirect effects
Suppliers
deliver air transport services
&travel related products to
Users & industries
deliver intermediate inputs
& investment goods to airport
Firms/organizations
order intermediate inputs
& investment goods from
Various industries
order intermediate inputs
& investment goods from
Various industries
create employment & pay
Wages, accrue profits
(or losses, pay taxes
create employment & pay
Wages, accrue profits
(or losses, pay taxes
Income generated is spent for private consumption
Interface between direct, indirect and induced demand effects (2)
Income generated is spent for private consumption
Induced effects
Concerned firms
deliver goods and
services to end users
order intermediate inputs and
investment goods from various
industries
create employment and
Pay wages & salaries, accrue
Profit (or losses), pay taxes
Interface between direct, indirect and induced demand effects (3)
Indirect effects
Direct effects
Suppliers
Airport firms/organizations
deliver intermediate inputs and
investment goods to airport
firms/organizations
deliver air transport services
and travel-related products
to end users and to industries
order intermediate inputs and
investment goods from various
industries
order intermediate inputs and
investment goods from various
industries
create employment and pay
wages/salaries accrue profits
(or losses) pay taxes
create employment and pay
wages/salaries accrue profits
(or losses) pay taxes
Income generated is spent for goods and services
as private ic consumption
Induced effects
Concerned firms
deliver goods and
services to end users
order intermediate inputs and
investment goods from various
industries
create employment and pay wages
and salaries
accrue profits (or losses)
pay taxes
Source:. Flughafengesellschaft (airport corporation), Braunschweig, 2000.
ECCA NATIONAL ECONOMY
IMPACT RESEARCH
Transportation Satellite Accounts
DEMONSTRATED:
1 STUDY
EXPANDED ASSESSMENT
SIMULATE I/O MODEL
DEMONSTRATED:
1 STUDY
CIVIL AVIATION
TRAVEL (non-aviation) &
TOURISM
DIRECT
M
U
L
T
I
P
L
I
E
R
E
F
F
E
C
T
S
CATALYTIC
INDIRECT
INDIRECT
INDUCED
2000
O utp ut
US $1008 b illio n
Em ploy men t
10 m illion job s
31,6%
17,5%
17,6%
64,9%
Direct
12,7%
55,7%
Catalytic
Multiplier effects
Total contribution of U.S civil aviation
Source: WSA, 2003
550
900
469
800
450
717
350
700
Revenue
300
Employment
600
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
100
200
100
50
0
100
0
Output multiplier 4.7
Job multiplier 7.2
2000
O u tp u t
1 00 8 b illio n U S $
Finance, etc.
Education & health
Agriculture, etc.
9,5%
7,0%
Manufacturing
19,6%
Transport
8,9%
Finance, etc.
Education & health
Agriculture, etc.
19,6%
20,7%
Manufacturing
Em p loy m en t
10 m illi on jo b s
12,5%
4,8%
15,2%
15,4%
9,7%
Transport
12,8%
14,7%
29,6%
Trade
Trade
Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, 2003.
Hospitality
Hospitality
J
1008
1000
$ billions
800
1987
12
2000
10
8
291
600
10
8
6
310
400
4
235
200
2
0
0
Output
Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, 2003.
Income
Jobs
Jobs millions
1200
IMPLEMENTATION
National & Regional
„
„
ECCA CIRCULAR (publish 2 Volumes)
FUTURE WORK
Develop training modules on
methodologies to be delivered in ICAO
regional workshops
‹ Provide technical support to assist
Contracting States upon request with
implementation of economic impact
assessments on cost-recovery basis
‹ Pursue further cooperation with WTOOMT and other relevant institutions
‹