Summary of Lecture 1 • Introduction to Earth’s atmosphere – origin – composition – structure – comparison with other planets • Stefan’s law 4 T S 1 4 s Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Sun ~ 6000 K UV/vis lmax~0.6mm Solar flux =1370 Wm-2 S (1-)/4=TE4 Earth ~ 255 K IR lmax~ 12mm UV absorption DUV UVc UVb UVa / Visible Infra Red Absorption by atmospheric gases Solar energy received Radiation Balance Notes: • Surface has Ts=288 K and radiates Ts4 = 400 Wm-2 (117 units). • Atmosphere at 250 K radiates 220 Wm-2 (64 units), both up and down. • 30% of surface radiation is reflected by the atmosphere (32 units), giving a total downward flux of 96 units. • Non-radiative flux of 100 Wm-2 (30 units) drives the atmospheric circulation and weather Seasonal net IR radiation Global Climate Net short, long and global radiation entering and leaving the top of our atmosphere measured by satellite. Data are from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Global Warming Global temperatures 1880-2015 Change in extent of Arctic sea ice Rising CO2 levels Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, due to three emissions scenarios 700350 Business as usual emissions Constant 1990 emissions 50% reduction in emissions CO2 concentration ppm 300 600250 200 500150 100 400 50 350 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Global temperature rise, degrees C Global temperature rise IPCC A1FI emissions A2 emissions B2 emissions B1 emissions Components of sea-level rise Hadley Centre Pattern of annual temperature changes 2080s relative to present day Met Office / Hadley Centre 0 A1FI emissions scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 Temperature rise Medium-high emissions scenario, 2080s winter summer Hadley Centre Hadley Centre °C Pattern of annual precipitation changes 2080s relative to present day Met Office / Hadley Centre –3 –2 A1FI emissions scenario –1 –0.5 –0.25 0 0.25 0.5 1 2 3 Change in precipitation Medium-high emissions scenario, 2080s winter summer Hadley Centre Hadley Centre % Change in surface temperature with forced THC collapse, but without change in greenhouse gases Hadley Centre Deg C