November 5, 2015
Department of Environmental Quality
North Carolina Division of Air
Quality Update
2015 Air Quality Forum
Mecklenburg County Air Quality Land Use & Environmental Services
Agency
November 5, 2014
Randy Strait
North Carolina Division of Air Quality
Supervisor, Attainment Planning Branch
Planning Section
Department of Environmental Quality
2
Topics Covered




Update on Compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
Emissions Trends
State Implementation Plan (SIP) Update
 Charlotte Area Redesignation for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
 Relaxation of Fuel Volatility Standard for Gaston and Mecklenburg Counties
 CO Limited Maintenance Plans
 2012 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS Infrastructure SIP
 Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
 Mobile Sources I/M Program Update
 Near Road NO2 Monitors
 2010 SO2 NAAQS Implementation
 NC’s CAA Section 111(d) Plan
 Response to Startup, Shutdown, Malfunction (SSM) SIP Call
 Regional Haze Update
 2014 National Emissions Inventory
Education & Outreach
Department of Environmental Quality
3
Update on Compliance with the
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS)
Department of Environmental Quality
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Air Quality in NC Continues to Improve!
• Standards and goals set a decade ago have been
met!
 1997 Ozone standard
 1997 Fine particle standard
 2006 Lead standard
 2010 Nitrogen dioxide standard
 2010 Sulfur dioxide (SO2) standard
 2012 Fine particle (PM2.5) standard
 2008 Ozone standard – Charlotte area now attaining
 2015 Ozone standard – all counties attaining based on
2013-2015 monitoring data (unofficial)
Department of Environmental Quality
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Statewide Ozone Ambient Air Concentrations
Department of Environmental Quality
6
Statewide Ozone Exceedances
120
111
101
100
82
80
80
74
68
66
Days
61
60
46
40
27
20
36
35
29
27
24
26
26
16
16
11
10
5
2
4
4
1
3
6
0
1
0
1
10
00
20
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Orange and Above Days
Department of Environmental Quality
7
Red and Above Days
Ozone Design Values (2013-2015)
(8-Hour Average, 4th Highest Maximum)
Department of Environmental Quality
8
Department of Environmental Quality
9
Potential Design Value (ppb) if 2016 Values
are Identical to 2015
Department of Environmental Quality
10
Statewide PM2.5 Ambient Air Concentrations
Department of Environmental Quality
11
PM2.5 Annual Design Values (2012-2014)
All monitors meet the 2012 Annual Standard (12 μg/m3)
Department of Environmental Quality
12
PM2.5 Daily Design Values (2012-2014)
All monitors meet the 2006 24-Hour Standard (35 μg/m3)
Department of Environmental Quality
13
Statewide PM10 Ambient Air Concentrations
Department of Environmental Quality
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Statewide NO2 Ambient Air Concentrations
Two monitors (Mecklenburg & Forsyth Counties)
Department of Environmental Quality
15
Statewide SO2 Ambient Air Concentrations
Five monitors (Beaufort, Forsyth, Mecklenburg, New Hanover, Wake Counties)
Department of Environmental Quality
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Statewide CO Ambient Air Concentrations
Three monitors (Wake, Mecklenburg and Forsyth Counties)
Department of Environmental Quality
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Statewide Lead Ambient Air Concentrations
Two monitors (Wake and Mecklenburg Counties)
Department of Environmental Quality
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Regional Haze
Great Smokey Mountains National Park
Purchase Knob webcam on clearest day in June
See: http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/WebCams/parks/grsmpkcam/grsmpk_arc.cfm
Department of Environmental Quality
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Visibility Extinction Values
Great Smokey Mountains National Park
20% Worst Days
20% Best Days
300
50
45
Sea Salt
Soil
150
EC
POM
100
Amm. NO3
50
Amm. SO4
Rayleigh
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
Department of Environmental Quality
20
35
CM
30
Soil
25
EC
20
POM
15
Amm. NO3
10
Amm. SO4
5
Rayleigh
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CM
200
Sea Salt
40
Extinction (Mn-1)
Extinction (Mn-1)
250
Statewide Emissions Trends
Department of Environmental Quality
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Trends in Annual Statewide Emissions
Includes emissions from power plants, non-electric generating units (EGU), mobile sources, and area sources.
Department of Environmental Quality
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Statewide Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) Emissions
Changes (2002-2012)
38% Reduction
2002 Total NOx = 594,663 tons
Other point
7%
2012 Total NOx = 366,141 tons
Area
6%
Nonroad
19%
EGU
27%
Onroad
Vehicles
41%
Department of Environmental Quality
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Other Point
10%
Area
4%
EGUs
13%
Onroad
Vehicles
60%
Nonroad
13%
Statewide PM2.5 Emissions Changes (2002-2012)
61% Reduction
2002 PM 2.5 Emissions = 97,731 tons
2012 Total PM2.5 = 38,486 tons
Other point
10%
Other Point
16%
EGU
17%
Area
42%
EGUs
13%
Onroad
5%
NonRoad
10%
Department of Environmental Quality
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Area
58%
Onroad
Vehicles
17%
Nonroad
Vehicles
12%
Clean Smoke Stacks Act (CSA)
Related Emission Reductions
Net environmental compliance cost = $2.89 billion
Department of Environmental Quality
25
% Reduction in Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions
Relative to 2002
100
90%
90
Percent Reduction Relative to 2002
80
75%
70
60
50
40
36%
30
20
10
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-10
-20
SO2
Department of Environmental Quality
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NOx
CO2
2010
2011
2012
2013
State Implementation Plan (SIP) Update
Department of Environmental Quality
27
Charlotte Area Redesignation for
2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard
• EPA Final Approvals (July 28, 2015):
• Redesignation request and maintenance plan
(80 FR 44873):
• Effective August 27, 2015
• Included approval of motor vehicle emissions
budgets for conformity purposes
• Non-interference demonstration for removing
federal low-Reid vapor pressure (RVP) requirement
for the Gaston and Mecklenburg Counties
(80 FR 44868):
• Effective July 28, 2015
Department of Environmental Quality
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Federal Low-RVP Requirement for Gaston and
Mecklenburg Counties
• EPA Actions (August 17, 2015):
• Proposal to revise federal RVP requirement from 7.8 to 9.0 pounds per
square inch (psi) from June 1 – Sept. 15 (80 FR 49139)
• Published Direct Final Rule to revise 40 CFR 80.27(a)(2) (40 FR
49164)
• Rule effective Oct. 16, 2015 (no adverse comments received)
• Benefits:
• Estimate low-RVP gasoline cost about 7 cents more per gallon on
average than gasoline with less stringent vapor requirements (DAQ
analysis in 2014)
• From June 1 to Sept. 15, 2014, would have saved Charlotte
motorists about $8.4 million during this period
Department of Environmental Quality
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Charlotte Maintenance Areas for Ozone Standards
Department of Environmental Quality
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Charlotte 2008 Ozone Maintenance Area
Total Summer Day NOx Emissions
Total NOx Emissions Reduction = 48%
2014 NOx Emissions
(Total: 130.2 tpd)
20%
25%
2026 NOx Emissions
(Total: 67.5 tpd)
21%
Point
Point
39%
Area
9%
On-road
Nonroad
46%
Department of Environmental Quality
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Area
On-road
23%
Nonroad
17%
Charlotte 2008 Ozone Maintenance Area
Onroad Summer Day NOx Emissions
70.00
On-road NOx Emissions, tons/day
60.00
Cabarrus County
50.00
Iredell County
Lincoln County
40.00
Rowan County
Union County
30.00
Gaston County
Mecklenburg County
20.00
Total Emissions
10.00
0.00
2012
2014
2016
2018
Department of Environmental Quality
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2020
Year
2022
2024
2026
2028
Carbon Monoxide (CO) NAAQS
Limited CO Maintenance Plans End this Fall
for 3 Areas
• Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham Maintenance Areas :
• End date = September 18, 2015
• Winston-Salem Maintenance Area:
• End date = November 7, 2015
• Transportation and general conformity no longer
required for CO
Department of Environmental Quality
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2012 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS
Infrastructure State Implementation Plan (SIP)
• Purpose: Certify that state has the authority and programs
needed to implement, maintain and enforce the standard
• States must address 14 elements under CAA Sections
110(a)(1) and 110(a)(2) (per EPA guidance)
• Schedule:
• Pre-hearing draft is out for public comment now: Comments
due by Nov. 30, 2015
• Final submittal to EPA: By Dec. 14, 2015
Department of Environmental Quality
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Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
• Purpose:
• Address “Good Neighbor “ provision under CAA Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) to demonstrate that NC is
not interfering with attainment/maintenance of a neighboring state's ozone problem
• Status of NC’s Good Neighbor (GN) Infrastructure SIP (iSIP):
• Nov. 2, 2012: NC submitted GN iSIP that relied on NOx emission reductions from NC Clean Smoke
Stacks Act and EPA’s Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)/Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR).
• Aug. 21, 2012: D.C. Circuit vacated CSAPR and required EPA to define significant contributions for
GN SIPs. EPA began emissions and air quality modeling to identify contributing states.
• Apr. 29, 2014: U.S. Supreme Court reversed the D.C. Circuit decision and held that states are
required to meet GN provision despite the lack of EPA modeling guidance.
• Aug. 2014: EPA informed NC its intent to disapprove iSIP because it lacked a modeling
demonstration; NC withdrew the GN iSIP on Sept. 3, 2014.
• June 30, 2015: Per Court Order, EPA issued failure to submit complete GN iSIP for 24 states
including NC
• October 30, 2015: DAQ released pre-hearing draft GN iSIP for public comment; comments due by
Nov. 30, 2015
Department of Environmental Quality
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Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
• EPA Transport Modeling Update
• Draft modeling for 2018 (Jan. 2015)
• NC does not have significant contributions to another state’s ozone pollution
• Revised draft modeling for 2017 (July 2015):
• Notice of Data Availability (NODA) issued on July 23 requesting comments by Oct. 23
• Revised draft modeling shows NC contributes to one maintenance monitor in
Baltimore County, Maryland (i.e., Essex ozone monitor)
• DAQ reviewed revised modeling and submitted comments to EPA on Oct. 23
• EPA Next Steps
• Proposed rulemaking for federal (backstop) plan expected later this fall
(will not incorporate DAQ comments submitted on revised 2017 modeling)
• Final rulemaking expected next yea
(will incorporate DAQ comments submitted on revised 2017 modeling)
Department of Environmental Quality
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Interstate Transport for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
• DAQ extensively reviewed EPA’s revised draft modeling for 2017
• Details of DAQ’s review and findings are documented in pre-hearing draft iSIP
posted on DAQ’s website
• DAQ Conclusions:
• Modeling reveals substantial evidence that the EPA’s 2017 modeling analysis
linking North Carolina to downwind contributions to ozone concentrations at
the Essex ozone monitor is associated with inaccurate emissions inventories
and deficiencies in the performance of the air quality modeling rather than a
real contribution.
• North Carolina does not contribute significantly to downwind air quality
problems in another state, and has met its Good Neighbor Provision under the
Clean Air Act with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS
Department of Environmental Quality
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Interstate Transport for NO2 and SO2 NAAQS
• “Good Neighbor” iSIPs to be completed this fall or early next year
• 2010 1-Hour NO2 NAAQS
• 2010 1-Hour SO2 NAAQS
Department of Environmental Quality
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Mobile Sources
Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Program Update
3-Year Exemption SIP Approval
• General Assembly Session Law 2012–199:
•
Exempts from I/M Program:
•
Three newest model-year vehicles with less than
70,000 miles on their odometers; and
•
Plug-in vehicles
• EPA Final Approval (February 5, 2015; 80 FR 6455)
• EPA approval certified by NC DEQ and DMV
• Rule effective April 1, 2015
Department of Environmental Quality
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Mobile Sources I/M Program Update
• 2015 I/M Program Study – HB74
• Examine whether all counties with an emissions testing and maintenance program are needed to meet
and maintain the current and proposed federal ozone standards
• Submitted to Environmental Review Commission April 1st
(http://www.ncair.org/news/leg/Final_Report_HB_74_IM_Study.pdf)
• Recommendations:
• Option A - using 65 parts per billion (ppb) as the potential ozone standard, remove 27 counties from
vehicle emissions inspection requirements
• Option B - using 70 ppb as the potential ozone standard, remove 31 counties from vehicle emissions
inspections requirements
• Legislative Activity:
• HB 169 removes 29 counties from program - 27 Option A counties + 2 Option B counties; but was not
adopted by Senate
• Expect legislature to address in 2016 session
• DAQ will revise report in light of EPA’s new ozone standard
Department of Environmental Quality
40
Near Road NO2 Monitors
• Charlotte and Raleigh
• Early values
• Average ~ 12 ppb in 2015 for both sites, 10 ppb in Raleigh, 11 ppb
in Charlotte in 2014 (standard is 53 ppb annual mean)
• 98th Percentile = 36 ppb for Raleigh, 39 ppb for Charlotte (standard
is 98% <100 ppb over 3 years)
• Peaks around 7am and 6pm (rush hour)
• In its "Action Initiation List" (AIL) of planned rulemakings launched
in July -- EPA says it will within a year propose to revise its NO2
monitoring regulations to remove the requirement that metropolitan
areas with a population between 500,000 and one million establish
near-road monitoring by Jan. 1, 2017.
Department of Environmental Quality
41
2010 1-Hour SO2 NAAQS Implementation
• Based on 3 years of monitoring data, EPA designated areas in August
2013, deferred all other designations
• All monitors in NC continue to show compliance with the 1-hour standard
• Court order directs EPA to complete designations for all remaining areas
in up to 3 additional rounds:
• Round 1 (by July 2, 2016):
• One facility met emissions (>2,600 tons SO2) and average emission rate (at
least 0.45 lbs SO2/mmBtu) thresholds
• DAQ has submitted boundary recommendations to EPA and, based on
modeling, concluded facility will not cause exceedance of standard and
recommended an attainment designation
Department of Environmental Quality
42
2010 1-Hour SO2 NAAQS Implementation
• Round 2 (by December 31, 2017)
• Following EPA Data Requirements Rule (effective date is Sept. 21, 2015):
• Directs agencies to provide data to characterize current air quality in areas
with large sources (>2,000 tons SO2)
• DAQ is working with facilities to determine best approach for compliance
(monitoring vs. modeling)
• 6 facilities exceed the emissions threshold
• 2 facilities below threshold but 3rd-party modeling shows potential for
exceeding standard; DAQ is reviewing
• EPA to designate areas that use modeling approach
• Round 3 (by December 31, 2020)
• EPA to designate all remaining areas that use monitoring approach
• EPA also recommends that areas with multiple sources in same area that
have total emissions >2,000 tons be considered for air quality
characterization (DAQ is reviewing)
Department of Environmental Quality
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NC’s 111(d) Plan
• Develop 111(d) State Plan consistent with Clean Air Act requirements
• Information requested from subject facilities:
• Best System of Emissions Reductions
• Candidate measures that will directly reduce CO2 emissions at the facility (such as
heat rate improvement measures)
• Approach:
• Develop Primary Plan
• Consists of a proposed rule for improving efficiencies at the state’s electric generating
units (EGUs).
• Based on the only component of the federal power plan rule that the NCDEQ believes is
legal. Allowing this proposed rule to go to hearing will ensure that the state can meet the
federal power plan’s September 2016 deadline.
• Develop Backup Plan
• To be completed at the same time as other states that request a two-year extension for
creating their compliance plan
• DEQ joined 23 states lawsuit against EPA, on grounds that the federal power plan
rule is illegal and could cost billions of dollars to plan for and implement before it is
ultimately overturned by the court
Department of Environmental Quality
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NC’s 111(d) Plan
• 9/9/15
Environmental Management Commission (EMC) briefing
• 11/4/15
Draft rules 111(d) Plan to AQC & 30-day waiver request
• 11/5/15
Request to EMC to proceed to public hearing & 30-day waiver
request
• 11/16/15
Public comment period begins
• Dec. 2015/Jan. 2016 Public hearings
• 1/15/16
End of comment period
• 2/2016
Hearing Officer’s report to EMC for consideration
• By 2/22/16
File with Rules Review Commission (RRC)
• 3/17/16
RRC action
• 4/1/16
Effective date (if < 10 objections)
• ~mid-May through June - potential Legislative review
• 9/6/16
Deadline to submit plan to EPA
Department of Environmental Quality
45
Response to Startup, Shutdown, Malfunction (SSM)
SIP Call
• SIP is due November 22, 2016
• NCDEQ joined 16 other states in filing a judicial petition for
review of final SIP call decision
• Parallel track – develop a response to SIP call; looking at
standards that apply during SSM
Department of Environmental Quality
46
Regional Haze
• EPA Plans:
• Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) – early 2016
• Extend due date for 10-Year SIP update from 2018 to 2021
• Progress report schedule
• Progress reports as SIP revisions
• Reasonably Attributable Visibility Impairment (RAVI) provisions
• Revised Guidance
• Progress Tracking Metrics - focus on being able to track progress
resulting from control of domestic anthropogenic emissions
Department of Environmental Quality
47
2014 National Emissions Inventory
• Triennial update to EPA’s base year inventory for all sectors
• Sectors:
• Stationary Point
• Title V Sources – report 2014 emissions to DAQ by June 30, 2015
• Synthetic Minors – report emissions 90 days after permit renewal date
• Area, Onroad and Nonroad – estimates prepared by DAQ and EPA
• Pollutants
• Criteria Air (NOx, VOC, CO, PM2.5/10, SO2, lead)
• Hazardous air pollutants
• Final state data submittal to EPA – Jan. 1, 2016
• Public Release
• Version 1 – July 22, 2016
• Version 2 – July 22, 2017
Department of Environmental Quality
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Education & Outreach
Department of Environmental Quality
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Department of Environmental Quality
50
Education Programs
Elementary School (K5)
Recently updated
Includes STEM curricula
Geared towards
interactive learning
FREE
NC Specific
Activities, Demos & Videos
Teachers & Students
In Classroom or Online
Teacher Workshops
High School (9-12)
Air pollutants and their
sources
Predicting air pollution
Air pollution problems &
solutions (2016)
Department of Environmental Quality
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Middle School (6-8)
Health effects of burning
trash
Includes information
from Fire Departments
Recycling activities
2015 Best Practice Award
Promoting Energy Efficiency at Commercial
and Industrial Facilities in NC
Department of Environmental Quality
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Thank you!
Department of Environmental Quality
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Questions?