45th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2014) 2633.pdf SUBSURFACE CONTROL OF LAKES AT LOW NORTH POLAR LATITUDES ON TITAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR FLUVIAL PROCESSES AND LAKE MORPHOLOGY. D. G. Horvath1, J. C. Andrews-Hanna1, C. E. Newman2, K. L. Mitchell3, B. W. Stiles3, 1Department of Geophysics and Center for Space Resources, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, dhorvath@mines.edu, 2Ashima Research, Pasadena, CA, 3Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA. Introduction: Lake features on Titan’s surface exhibit various seasonal behaviors, morphologies, and spectral characteristics. Observations of large dendritic valleys [1,2,3], karstic lakes and valleys [4], potential evaporite deposits [5], and ephemeral lakes [6] indicate a diverse range of fluvial and lacustrine behavior on Titan. In the northern polar region in particular, large seas, fed by extensive catchment basins [7] are present at similar latitudes to those of karstic lakes, which are characterized by rounded, steep-sided shorelines [4]. Dry lakebeds with similar karstic morphologies are observed at lower polar latitudes [8] in agreement with predictions of atmospheric models for Titan, [9,10] but large seas are found at similar latitudes implying that climate alone does not account for the latitudinal distribution of lakes in the northern polar region. This study uses a large-scale hydrological model to examine the hydrological processes responsible for lakes at arid, low polar latitudes and the implications these hydrological processes have for geomorphologic processes. Model: The catchment scale hydrological model combines a numerical subsurface hydrology model with an analytical surface runoff model, driven by the outputs from a general circulation model (GCM) [11]. The limited surface topography data available for Titan [12] prevents direct hydrological modeling of specific regions on Titan. Thus, we use the statistical nature of SAR topography profiles over regions of interest to generate synthetic fractal topography. We generate synthetic fractal topography to fill in the gaps between topographic profiles over the northern polar regions to generate synthetic topographic maps over the north polar seas (Figure 1a). Previous work [13] determined the behavior of a catchment scale hydrological system using a domain size large enough to encompass the individual large seas on Titan. For this investigation, we expand the domain to encompass multiple catchment basins. We use a rectangular grid with dimensions of 1348 by 2022 km, to represent a portion of the surface northward of 45°N latitude. The climate in the model domain varies as a function of the distance from the pole, located at the top edge of the grid. The latitudinal and seasonal variations in the precipitation and evaporation rates used in the model are taken from the TitanWRF GCM [11]. This large spatial domain allows us to investigate the effect of latitudinal variation in climate at the north polar region on the hydrology. Pre- vious work examined the effect of permeability [13], but we assume a constant permeability of 10-6 cm2 for all models presented in this study. For ungauged catchment basins on Earth, the annual amount of precipitation that participates in the surface hydrology is estimated using a Budyko-type method [14], which relates the actual annually averaged evaporation to precipitation ratio to the potential annually averaged evaporation to precipitation ratio (the aridity index) predicted by the GCM. Terrestrial studies found that a simple equation matched numerous gauged basins on Earth [15]. Here we use this simple analytic relationship to determine the amount of precipitation predicted by the GCM that does not evaporate from the surface, which is then separated into recharge to the aquifer and surface runoff based on where runoff is routed in the model domain. Results: The general circulation model predicts increasing aridity at locations further from the pole. Small catchment scale hydrological models using the GCM outputs at isolated latitudes predict near zero recharge rates and runoff at latitudes below 77°N due to increased aridity. This results in no lake formation below 77°N if only a single catchment is considered. While smaller catchment scale hydrological modeling predicts no lake formation below 77°N, the largescale multiple basin model with spatially varying climates representing 45°N to 90°N latitude predicts the formation of lakes down to the equivalent of 60°N latitude with decreasing lake area at lower latitudes (Figure 1). Intense recharge, direct lake precipitation, and surface runoff at wetter north polar latitudes greater than 77°N, raises the hydraulic head Figure 1. a Synthetic topography generated for the northern polar region. b Lakes (black) overlain on hydraulic head at the northern polar region. Circles of constant latitude are shown in b. 45th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2014) causing ground-methane flow to latitudes below 77°N. Increased aridity at latitudes below 77°N predict high evaporation fluxes from the subsurface methane-table and the lake surfaces. The high evaporation rate at the lower latitudes acts as a sink for liquids lying above and near the surface, further driving southward subsurface flow from latitudes greater than 77°N. While flow to lower latitude lakes through the subsurface is driven by recharge at high polar latitudes, the distribution of topographic depressions also strongly influences the distribution and formation of lakes at lower polar latitudes. In models with large topographic depressions at higher latitudes, or with lower latitudes lacking any significant topographic lows, liquid ponds at higher polar latitudes while lakes do not form lower at latitudes. However, since our synthetic topography is built upon the existing topographic tracks across the region, it provides an accurate representation of the latitudinal distribution of lakes and seas. While lakes form at high and low polar latitudes (Figure 1b), the lake hydrology below and above 77°N varies significantly. Surface runoff is confined to the northernmost latitudes where the GCM predicts increased precipitation. However, topographic divides prevent surface runoff from reaching lower latitude basins. This is consistent with dark (filled) fluvial channels in the higher polar latitudes [2] and would result in high sedimentation rates for these lakes. Surface runoff constitutes 53% of the annual influx to lakes above 77°N and subsurface flow constitutes 29% (Figure 2), with the remaining flux from direct precipitation onto the lake surface. In contrast, the lower latitude lakes located between 60° and 77°N experience little direct precipitation or surface runoff. Subsurface flow to lakes at latitudes lower than 77°N constitutes 99% of the annual lake influx while surface runoff and direct precipitation constitutes less than 1% (Figure 2). Lower latitude lakes also alternate between hydrological periods of net loss and net influx due to the evolving balance between evaporation and subsurface influx. These lakes experience net influx during the late summer to early winter when the evaporation flux is low, and net loss during late winter to early summer as evaporation from the lake surface increases. A regional drop in the methane table would dry these lakes out entirely. This is consistent with observations of potential evaporite deposits [5] located between 60° and 70°N and karstic lake morphologies [4] concentrated below 80°N. Conclusions: Although lakes and seas are observed down to 65°N latitude, climatic factors alone predict no lake formation below 77°N. The equatorward subsurface flow through an unconfined 2633.pdf Figure 2. Average hydrographs for all lakes above 77°N (top) and all lakes between 60° to 77°N (bottom) over the course of one Titan year (time axis is in Earth years). aquifer, driven by high recharge rates to the methane table at high northern latitudes and high evaporation rates from lake surfaces at lower latitudes can explain the presence of the observed lower latitude lakes. The significant hydrological differences between the lower latitude and higher latitude lakes have implications for the processes controlling lake morphologies at different latitudes including sedimentation, karst development, and evaporite formation. 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Acknowledgements: Some of this research was carried out at the California Institute of Technology Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with NASA. We acknowledge support of the Outer Planets Research Program.