Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 A Bivariate Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Ghana Mustafa Özer and Charles Mensah As every nation continues to aspire for continues economic growth, the issue about energy and its contribution to economic growth has become an economic topic for discussion in most energy research papers. Understanding the factors that affect economic growth (GDP growth) is very crucial in policy making since its helps in macroeconomic stability and livelihood improvement in the economy. This study looks at the causality relationship between total aggregate energy consumed in Ghana and GDP growth (economic growth). The data used was from the World Bank Indicators with data spanning from 1971 to2013. Using the VAR Granger causality and lag order 1, it was established that GDP growth granger causes energy consumption in Ghana. The individual energy components and its relationship to GDP growth were examined in this study. Electricity was found to have a long run causality to economic growth using the VECM granger causality/Block erogeneityWaldtest at lag 1. A shortrun VAR granger causality was found from fossil consumption to GDP growth and a bi-directional causality was found between Biomass consumption and economic growth in Ghana. JEL Code: E32, E21 Keywords: GDP, Energy, VAR, VECM, Fossil and Biomass. Introduction As every nation continues to aspire for continues economic growth, the issue about energy and its contribution to economic growth has become an issue for discussion. Understanding the factors that affect economic growth (GDP growth) is very crucial in policy making since its helps in macroeconomic stability and livelihood improvement in the economy. Ucan et al. ( 2014) explain that in both developing and developed countries, energy is an important porduction factor like capital and labour. The oil prices shock that hit most of the world economies in the 1970s,1990s and 2000s are clear indications of how energy consumption affects economies. This study uses a bivariate framework to study the causative relationship between aggregate energy consumption and GDP growth using the Vector Autoregression Regression (VAR) system approah. The study also looks at the individual components that makeup energy in Ghana and their individual causality to GDP growth in Ghana. In this way, the study tends to fill in the gap in literature where most study have been done on the energy consummed in various sectors and their effect on GDP. The Energy Commission of Ghana defines the composite of energy as Crude Oil, Hydro power, Natural gas and wood. The five major final consumers of energy in Ghana are the Residential Sector, Industrial Sector, Transport Sector, Agriculture and Fisheries Sector and the Commerce and Service sector. In 2013 for instance, __________________________________________________________________ Prof.Dr. Mustafa Özer, Anadolu University, the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Yunus Emre Kampusu 26470, Eskişehir, Turkey. Charles Mensah, Graduate School of Social Sciences, Anadolu Üniversitesi. Yunus Emre Kampusu 26470, Eskişehir-Turkey Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 the Residence sector consumed the highest energy of about 2795.7, followed by Transport with 2644.8 and Industry was 1050. The Agriculture and Commerce sector consumed the least energy in 2013 with 102.8 and 292.9 respectively. Energy Consumed (ktoe unit) 2644.8 2795.7 Residence Industry Commerce and Service Agric and Fisheries 1050 Transport 102.8 292.9 Source: Energy Commission Report 2013 1. Energy Consumption in Ghana over the period of 2000 and 2013 Ghana’s energy trend has hovered around 5000ktoe over the period of 13years. Petroleum has been the most heavily consumed component of energyin Ghana. Petroleum consumption steadily rose from 1535.3 ktoe in 2000 to 3300.1 ktoe in 2013. Fossil energy (natural gas and oil) consumptions have been used in the transport sector, industry and most agriculture and fishing equipments.The Biomass which is mostly wood is the second consumed energy type in Ghana. This type of energy is burnt as charcoal and used for cooking in both the rural and urban areas. In the early 2000s the use of biomass was twice the use of petroleum because of its wide coverage and affordable price. Electricity though does not cover the whole region of Ghana plays an important role in the economy. Since 2011-2015, Ghana has been facing serious issues of power shortage that has badly affected business and homes in Ghana. It has gradually risen from 596.8ktoe in 2000 to about 910ktoe due to increase in population and industrialization of the economy. Below is a chart to display the trend in how the various energies were consumed from 2000 to 2013. Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 Source: Energy Commission Ghana Report 2014 2. Empirical Literature Theoreticalliteratures from Solow Model of growth to recent models that have energy as part of the factors for economic growth over the years have been developed. However, this study focuses mainly on the recent empirical literature on the issue of energy and economic growth. There have been various views that have been empirically backed on the direction causation between energy consumption and growth. Studies have been done considering a single country and cross country panel framework and results indicated diverse views on the causation. 2.1.Single Country Time Series Study Altinay et al.(2005) examined the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey using electricity as a proxy for energy from 1950 to 2000. The study employed the Granger causality approach and found a unidirectional causality that runs from electricity consumption to income or GDP growth. This means that energy consumption is contributing effective to economic growth in Turkey. Akan et al.(2010)also looked at the relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey with data from 1970 to 2007 and used the Error Correction Model. Their study yielded a bidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Abaidoo(2011) also did a similar study focusing on Ghana and looking at the magnitude and causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The study also adopted electricity as the energy proxy using Sims (1972) Granger Test and found causality running from economic growth to energy. Adom(2011) also used Toda and Yamamoto Granger causality test with data from 1971 to 2008 and found found granger causality running from economic growth to electricy consumption in Ghana. Kraft and Kraft (1978) found from their study about USA that causality runs from GDP to Energy consumption. They used the Sims technique as their research methodology and the Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 data used spanned from 1947 to 1974. This means that gowth in GDP in America will significantly contribute to energy use. Stern(1993) also used Multivariate VAR model in USA and found the same rsult that supports (Kraft & Kraft, 1978) that, causality runs from GDP to energy consumption. Stern also replaced gross energy with an index of final energy use wieghted for the changing fuel composition of energy input and found causality from energy consumption to GDP. This study used data that spanned from 1947 to 1990. Oh and Lee (2004) undertook a similar study in Korea using the Granger causality empirical method over the period from 1981 to 2000. The conclusion from this study was that, there existed a long run unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to energy. Paul and Bhattacharya (2004) examined the causality between energy to GDP in Indıa using data spanning from 1950 to 1996 and used Granger causality method. They found a bidirectional relationship between GDP and energy consumption. In China, energy was found to granger cause GDP growth when the researcher used Granger causality method with data spanning from 1952 to1999 (Wolde and Rufael,2004) 2.2.Cross Country evidence Lee and Chang (2008) used Granger causality method and found energy granger causing economic growth. Their study comprised on 16 Asian countries with data from 1971 to 2002. This means that if god energy policies are put in place in Asia, GDP is expected to grow and the state of the economy is expected to improve. Soytaş and Sar (2003) considered the same causality relation between energy consumption and economic growth using G-7 nations and found growth granger causes energy consumption. The study used data that spanned from 1950 to 1992 concluded that, when nations improve on GDP growth, it affects their energy consumption and therefore the need to know which type of energy provide less harm to the environment and can be generated with less resources. Chen et al.(2007) considered 10 Asian countries using Panel cointegration, Error Correction Model and Panel Causality tests with data from 1971 to 2001. They found a bidirectional causality between electric consumption and GDP. Mehrara (2007) in his study decided to consider 11 oil exporting countries to know what kind of relationship that exist between GDP and energy consumption. Interestingly, the result of the study was that, there was causality from GDP to energy consumption. Huang et al. (2008) took their research on a larger scale for 82 developed and developing countries and had some interesting conclusions. The study concluded that, GDP and energy consumption had no directional causality in the low income countries. This meant that energy consumption and GDP may be granger caused by other economic factors. The study however revealed that, for middle income and high income countries, GDP granger caused energy consumption. This study used the Panel VAR and GMM approach with data from 1972 to 1992. Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 Apergis et al. (2010) used Panel Error Correction Model for 19 developed and developing countries from 1984 to 2007 and found that there is bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. This means that, as these countries improve upon their GDP, renewable energy consumption will also be improved with efficiency. 3. Data and Methodology In this section, the study reports a step by step approach in achieving causality among energy consumption and GDP growth, and the various components of energy consumption in Ghana and their causality to economic growth. The results are divided into two groups; the bivariate causality between Energy consumption and GDP growth, and the bivariate causality between the individual energy components (petroleum, biomass and electricity from Hydro) and GDP growth. 3.1.Data All data used in this study were collected from the World Bank data source. GDP growth data and energy use for Ghana are directly reported as secondary data in the World Bank database. Also, total electricity consumed, fossil consumed and Biomass consumed can all be found from the same data base. The data spans from 1971 to 2013. 3.2.Methodology In this study, we employed a research procedure that consist of three steps. In the first step, we examine the time series properties of the variables by using unit root tests of the Augumented Dickey Fuller and the Phillip Perron and Johansen Cointegration Tests. In the second step, we form A VAR and VECM model based on the results of Johansen cointegration tests. Finally, we use tools of VAR/VECM to investigate the dynamic linkages between energy consumption, components of energy and economic growth. 4. Empirical Results The results reported for this study are in two parts; the causal relation between Energy Consumption and Growth, and the causal relation between the energy components (Fossil,Biomass and Hydro-Electricity) and GDP growth. 4.1.The Empirical Results of the causal relations between Energy Consumption and Growth The first empirical work was check for the presence of unit root in the variables. To achieve this, the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and the Philip Perron Test of stationarity. The table below shows that the variables were stationary after the first differencing using the Philip Perron Test and the ADF test. Table 1 results is a combination of all unit root tests undertaken. Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 Table 1 Unit Root Tests Philip Perron Test for Stationarity Variable PerronTest statistic P value Results GDPG -7.13 0.000* I(1) E -6.38 0.000* I(1) ADF TEST FOR STATIONARITY Variable ADF Test statistic P value Results GDPG -6.17 0.000* I(1) E -6.38 0.000* I(1) Number of observations = 42 *significance at 1% , Lag(1) From both the Philip Perron and the ADF test shows that the log of GDP growth and Energy consumption becomes stationary after the first difference. Since it now stationary, it can be used for any meaningful econometric analysis. Having verified that Energy consumption and GDP growth were stationary after the first difference, it was essential to find how many cointegrating equations existed in the systems (Johansen 1988). Trace statistic and the Maximum Eigen value Tests were used to find out if there was a cointegrating equation in the model. Table 2 includes the results of Johansen cointegration tests 1 . The Johansen trace statistic result indicated the was no cointegration among the variables. The Maximum Eigen value cointegration test it also confirmed that there was no cointegration among GDP growth and Energy. 5.1.1. Johansen Cointegration Test Johansen Cointegration test is a very important and essential test after identifying the integrating order of the variables. Having verified that Engergy consumption and GDP growth were stationary after the first difference, it was essential to find how many cointegrating equations existed in the systems (Johansen 1988). Trace statistic and the Maximum Eigen value Tests were used to find out if there was a cointegrating equation in the model. The Johansen trace statistic result indicated the was no cointegration among the 1 The selection for the best appropriate lag is an integral part in the cointegrationprocess.To accomplish this, the sequential modified LR test statistics (each at 5%), Final Prediction Error (FPE), the Schwarz Information Criterion (SC), the Hannan- Quinn (HQ) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were used. The table below shows that from these selection criteria, the most appropriate lag to use was Lag 1. A residual test was done to check for autocorrelation at lag 3 using the VAR Residual LM test and the null hypothesis of no serial correlation was not rejected. Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 variables. The Maximum Eigen value cointegration test it also confirmed that there was no cointegration among GDP growth and Energy. Below is a table of the results of cointegration tests. Table 2: Cointegration Tests Trace Test Hypotheses number Trace Stats 0.05 critical value Prob of CE(s) None* 13.307 15.495 0.104 At most 1 0.766 3.841 0.381 Max. Eigen value Prob val Hypothised number Eigen Value of CE(s) None* 0.361 12.541 0.092 At most 1 0.027 0.766 0.381 The probability value of no cointegrating equation is more the 0.05, we can conclude that ther is no cointegrating equations. Since the results of Johansen Cointegration tests indicate no cointegration between variables, we estimate a VAR model in first differences of the variables with one lag, and then carry out Granger causality test, compute IRFs and VDCs. 5.1.2. VAR Granger Causality/ Wald Exogeneity Test This test is conducted to know the directional causality of the variables in the VAR system. Table 3 below indicates that, there is a unidirectional causality that runs from GDP growth to Energy consumption in Ghana. Table 3: VAR Granger Causality Dependent Variable: LGDP Excluded Chi-sq df Prob Direction LEnergy 0.94 1 0.3315 Energy --- GDP All 0.94 1 0.3315 Dependent Variable: LEnergy Excluded Chi-sq df Prob Direction LGDP 9.63 1 0.0019 GDP All 9.63 1 0.0019 *----- means no directional causality. Means a unidirection running from GDP growth to Energy use Energy Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 From the VAR granger causality test, we can observe that Energy consumption in Ghana does not granger cause GDP growth. This means that, the values of energy use can not predict GDP growth in Ghana. However, it was also discovered that, GDP growth granger causes Energy consumption in Ghana. This means that, as the economy of Ghana grows, we can predict the amount of energy to be consumed. Since Granger causality test only indicates direction of causality, to indicate the sign of the causality, we use Impulse Response Function (IRF) between two variables. A one standard deviation applied to GDP growth positively affects its self in a decreasing manner. Also, an innovation applied to energy use does not have a visible dynamic linkage with GDP growth in Ghana.Based on the IRFs below, we can conclude that GDP growth increases the energy consumption. In other words, GDP growth has a positive dynamic linkage with energy use or consumption. From this, we can conclude that GDP growth granger causes Energy use positively in Ghana. A shock applied to energy use gives a positive dynamic linkage in response to itself. Impulse Response Analysis Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of LGDP to LGDP Response of LGDP to LENERGY .5 .5 .4 .4 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of LENERGY to LGDP 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of LENERGY to LENERGY .05 .05 .04 .04 .03 .03 .02 .02 .01 .01 .00 .00 -.01 -.01 -.02 -.02 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 Variance Decomposition Analysis The Variance Decomposition test tends to support the result of the IRF graphs and solidifies the conclusions. From the Variance Decomposition graph below, we notice that for a period of 10 years, GDP positively explains the variation in Energy consumption. Variance Decomposition Percent LGDP variance due to LGDP Percent LGDP variance due to LENERGY 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Percent LENERGY variance due to LGDP 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Percent LENERGY variance due to LENERGY 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 4.2.Analysis, Results and Finding of the individual components of Energy consumption in Ghana and their causality direction with relation to economic growth. Table 4: Presents the results of unit root tests, cointegration Granger causality tests. Energy type Unit Root Tests ADF:(-5.58) PP: (-5.78) I(1)* Lag Selection SC: 1 FPE: 1 HQ: 1 AIC: 1 Cointegration Fossils ADF: (-8.28) PP: (-7.36) I(1)* SC: 1 FPE: 1 HQ: 1 AIC: 1 None VAR Biomass ADF: (-6.75) PP: (-6.75) I(1)* SC: 1 FPE: 1 HQ: 1 AIC: 1 None VAR Electricity Method Trace Test: 1 VECM cointegrating equation Maximum Eigen Value: 1 cointegrating equation Causality A significant long run causality was identified between GDP growth and Electricity. However, no shortrun VECM Granger causality existed between the GDP growth and Electricity VAR Granger causality was found from fossil consumption to GDP growth A bidirectional causality was found between biomass consumption and GDP growth Source:Researcher’s analysis and all data were collected from the World Bank data on Ghana. I(1)* means, stationary after the first differencing. Fossil is combination of oil and natural gas energy consumed and Biomass energy data was taken as combustible renewals and waste as a percentage of total energy use by the World Bank. Also electricity consumption data was taken from the world bank data source. Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 Table 5; Table of Long run and causality hypothesis Long-run Null Hypothesis Short-run Trace Statistics Granger causality Prob value ∆Lelectricity ---∆GDP_growth 0.429 (prob value) ∆Lelectricity does not have a long run 16.7 relationship with ∆LGDP_growth (0.0328*) ∆ GDP_growth ---∆electricity 0.757 ∆Lfossils does not have a long run relationship with 7.47 ∆LGDP_growth (0.524) ∆Lfossils ∆GDP_growth ∆ GDP_growth ---∆fossils ∆LBiomass does not 11.64 have a long run relationship with (0.175) ∆LGDP_growth ∆LBiomass ∆GDP_growth 0.0005* 0.3670 0.0428** ∆ GDP_growth ∆Biomass 0.0001 *Indicates significance at 1% whiles ** indicates significance at 5% 5. Conclusions and Policy Recommendation From the first bi-variate framework which used a VAR approach between FDI and GDP growth, no directional causality was found from energy use to GDP growth. However, GDP growth had a positive directional granger causality with Energy consumption. This means that Ghana can predict how much energy it will be consuming in the future by looking at the rate of economic growth. The policy recommendation based on this finding are that, as the country seeks to increase in economic growth, government should put in place measures on how to sustain the country’s energy use since it will also be expected to rise so that industries and household do not run out of energy for production and efficiency. Proceedings of 7th Annual American Business Research Conference 23 - 24 July 2015, Sheraton LaGuardia East Hotel, New York, USA, ISBN: 978-1-922069-79-5 The study also found out that there exist a Lon run cointegration relationship between electricity consumed in Ghana and economic growth. This economically means that, there exist an economic relationship between electricity and growth in Ghana. Also, it was discovered from the results of the bivariate framework between electricity consumption and economic growth that, there is no directional granger causality between the two. Simply put, values of electricity consumption cannot predict economic growth in Ghana and vice versa. However, the study found a positive dynamic linkage between electricity use and GDP growth. Policy recommendation to this effect is that, since there exist an economic relationship, government should place effective measures to stop the continues blackouts in the country since it will affect the economy in the long run.When this is properly addressed, this may cause a directional causality between the two. Another bi-variate analysis the study undertook was between fossil consumption and economic growth. It was revealed that there exists a directional granger causality flowing from fossil consumption to economic growth. The dynamic linkage between the two was also positive. This generally means that, when government is able to make petroleum (most commonly used fossil) available for the industry and transport sector with no difficulty, the economy will growth positively. Therefore, policies that will be targeted on making constant and available petroleum products should be strongly encouraged so that the Ghanaian economy can grow positively. An interesting observation established in this study is the bi-directional granger causality that exist between Biomass consumption and economic growth in Ghana. The Biomass product mainly used as energy source in Ghana is burnt wood (charcoal). This is largely used in both the rural and urban areas of Ghana for household purposes. The results indicate that we can predict economic growth in Ghana by looking at the amount of biomass we consume. However, the dynamic linkage between the two is negative. This means as we rely on burnt wood for energy in Ghana, we will experience a decrease in GDP growth. Therefore, policies reduce biomass consumption in Ghana must be encouraged in Ghana. References Abaidoo, R. (2011). Economic growth and energy consumption in an emergingeconomy: augmented granger causality approach. Research in Business and Economics Journal . Adom, P. K. (2011). Electricity Consumption-Economic Growth Nexus: The Ghanaian Case. 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