Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 Framing Effects and Financial Decision Making Michal Panasiak and Eric Terry The framing effect is one of the most widely recognized cognitive biases and can plague decision makers in a myriad of situations. This paper reviews three types of framing: attribute, absolute vs. relative and number size framing. It then shows how each type of framing could potentially influence financial decision making in realistic financial and corporate investment scenarios. The paper briefly discusses both how these framing effects could be exploited by marketers and the need for debiasing strategies in order to help people arrive at sound financial decisions. Field of Research: Behavioral finance, framing, investment management 1. Introduction Traditional models of financial decision-making assume rational investors who seek to maximize expected utility. However, there is a large and continually growing literature that shows that human decision-making is significantly influenced by a variety of cognitive biases (Ariely, 2008). An implication of this literature is that the way in which a problem is presented will have an influence on the way that a individual reacts to the problem, which in turn will change the way in which this problem is perceived (Wood & Bandura, 1989). Framing is one of the most well-known cognitive biases. A number of different types of framing have been identified. Levin, Schneider and Gaeth (1998) have classified framing effects into three major types: risky choice, attribute and goal framing. Hallahan (1999) also classified framing into different types. His classification included seven varieties differing in what is framed: situations, attributes, choices, actions, issues, responsibility, and news. There have been several other types of framing discovered after these classifications had been developed. This includes number size framing and framing risk in either absolute or relative terms. The risky choice framing effect is the tendency for individuals to be risk averse when uncertain outcomes are framed positively but risk seeking when they are framed negatively (Tversky & Kahneman,1981). This is one of the foundational assumptions of Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Prospect Theory has been used to analyze financial decisions in a number of published papers (cf. Barberis, Huang, & Santos, 2001; Shefrin & Statman, 1985). Mr. Michal Panasiak, Ted Rogers School of Management, Ryerson University, Canada. Email : michal.panasiak@ryerson.ca Dr. Eric Terry, Ted Rogers School of Management, Ryerson University, Canada. Email : eterry@ryerson.ca 1 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 In contrast, the implications of other types of framing for financial decision-making have remained unexplored. The purpose of this paper is investigate how three of these other types of framing - attribute framing, number size framing and framing risk in either absolute or relative terms - could potentially influence investment decisions. This will be done both for financial investment decisions and for corporate investment decisions (capital budgeting decisions). 2. Literature Review The essence of the framing effect is well summarized by Entman (1993): "Framing essentially involves selection and salience. To frame is to select some aspects of perceived reality and make them more salient in the communicating text, in such a way as to promote a particular problem definition, causal interpretation, moral evaluation and/or treatment recommendation for the item described" (p. 55). There are a number of different types of framing. Three of these are attribute framing, and framing risk in either absolute or relative terms, and number size framing. 2.1. Attribute Framing Attribute framing can be described as the simplest form of framing. In this case, only one single attribute is subject to the framing manipulation. With attribute framing, a product or event receives different reviews when this attribute is framed in a positive vs. negative light. For example, ground beef that was labeled as 75% lean received better customer reviews than the same ground beef that was labeled as 25% fat (Levin & Gaeth, 1988). The participants in the study were asked to rate the beef on a 1 to 7 point scale with 7 being the best score and 1 being the lowest score. When the beef was described as being 75% lean, the average rating attributed to it was 5.15. When the beef was described as being 25% fat, the average rating attributed to it was 2.83, a 2.32 point difference between the positive vs. negative frame. Similarly in the cases of medical procedures, where the surgery or treatment is described in terms of success rates as opposed to failure rates, the same procedures get significantly more positive reviews with the former rather than the latter (Marteau, 1989; Wilson, Kaplan, & Schneiderman, 1987). Risk is not an essential element of attribute framing. For example, Levin (1987) asked participants to rate the performance of a basketball player based on the player’s shooting percentage. Some people were presented with information about the player’s success rate of making baskets, whereas other people were presented with the player’s failure rate of making the same baskets. The people who had the information on the player’s success rate tended to give the players much more favorable scores than were people who were presented with the failure rate. Even though there was no element of risk present in rating the player, the attribute framing effect still held. In general, the outcomes of the different studies of attribute framing can be described as finding that if an attribute is framed in positive terms the product or event receives a more positive score than if the same attribute is framed in negative terms (Levin, Schneider, & Gaeth, 1998). Based on the large number of papers on attribute framing 2 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 that have been published in consumer research journals, marketing specialists have been very willing to make use of this framing effect to influence consumer perceptions of products. 2.2. Framing Risk in Absolute or Relative Terms This type of framing is closely related to attribute framing. The size of a possible loss or gain can differ substantially depending on whether it is presented in absolute or relative terms. Consequently, preferences between two alternatives can be influenced whether the potential outcomes are presented to a person in relative terms – as percentages - or in absolute terms – actual numbers. In a medical field study, it was shown by Malenka, Baron, Johansen, Wahrenberger and Ross (1993) that even if faced with the same degree of risk patients preferred to choose a hypothetical treatment option if it was presented to them in relative terms as opposed to absolute terms. The participants were presented with the following hypothetical scenario describing a disease which had a 10% mortality rate. Suppose you have a serious disease that needs to be treated with medication. Your risk of dying over the next year is 10% if you don't receive treatment. There are only 2 possible medications for the disease: Medication A and Medication B: They cost about the same and have almost no side effects. Your doctor provides you with the following information about these medications: Medication A: If you take this medication it will decrease your risk of dying by 80% (four fifths) over the next year. Medication B: If 100 people with the disease, like you, take this medication 8 deaths can be prevented over the next year. Question: Which medication do you want? Even though both options delivered the exact same results and the patients had all relevant information that would allow them to convert the relative risk into absolute risk and vice-versa, most patients appeared to not do this. Instead the 56.8% of respondents preferred the ‘relative’ treatment option (medication A), 14.7% preferred the ‘absolute’ treatment option (medication B), 15.5% responded that they had no preference and 13% stated that they couldn’t decide. The same study asked a control question in order to measure people’s ability to convert a number presented in relative terms into absolute terms. The study showed that most people were not able to do this even if provided with all relevant information needed to do it. 2.3. Number Size Framing Number size framing is also related to attribute framing. When individuals are presented with a number, people will often assign more significance to differences between smaller numbers than to the same differences between larger numbers. This phenomenon can be utilized to frame a product or event that has multiple attributes in a more favourable or less favourable light. 3 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 For example, Wong and Kwong (2005) asked participants to choose between two different stereo systems, based on two attributes of that system – compact disk (cd) changer capacity and sound quality. The first stereo system had a cd changer capacity of 2 cd’s and had the sound quality framed with either a small number as signal distortion of .003% or a large number as signal delivery of 99.997%. The second stereo system had a cd changer capacity of 10 cd’s and had the sound quality framed with either a small number as signal distortion of .01% or a large number as signal delivery of 99.99%. When sound quality was expressed using small numbers, 70% of people preferred the first stereo system. In contrast, when sound quality was expressed in larger numbers 60% of respondents instead preferred stereo system B. Thus, the difference in sound quality between the two systems appeared much more significant to respondents relative to cd capacity when framed in terms of small numbers than in terms of large numbers. Significant preference reversals were also found in a variety of other situations including conditions where peripheral information, evaluation modes and evaluation scales were changed. In addition a preference reversal due to number size framing may take place even when decision makers are faced with an opposing risky choice framing effect. Depending how the numbers describing attributes of different choices are presented, individuals may be comparing two tiny giants or two giant dwarfs. In these situations, individuals will shift their preferences from one choice to the other depending on the size of the numbers, with differences between smaller numbers given more importance than the same differences between larger numbers (Wong & Kwong, 2005). 3. Potential Applications to Investment Decision-Making 3.1. Attribute Framing Attribute framing in financial investment scenarios can be seen during every day interactions between financial institutions and retail, small scale investors. Banking institutions generally try to steer clients towards particular financial products by highlighting their positive features and away from alternative investments by highlighting their negative features. As an example, they might highlight the potential return that one could earn investing in a security and downplay the potential loss that one could suffer investing in the same security. Consider an investment advisor emphasizing that a particular bond has a 99% chance of paying its promised yield makes the default risk of the bond less noticeable or important to the client than if the bond was described as having a 1% chance of default. It is hypothesized that this would make the client more likely to invest in this bond. As another example of attribute framing influencing a financial investment decision, a financial advisor might highlight the potentially large returns that one could earn investing in a very risky security in order to make it appeal to particular clients or conversely highlight the potentially large losses that one could suffer investing in the same security in order to talk clients away from investing in it. 4 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 When making corporate financial decisions, firms compute the net present value (NPV) of a potential project so determine whether the project adds value (i.e. has a positive NPV) or subtracts value (i.e. has a negative NPV). Because the computation of NPV follows a fairly rigid set of procedures, there is limited scope to frame risk either as a positive or negative attribute. An exception involves the presentation of the break-even probability for the NPV of a project when performing simulation analysis on this computed value. For example, a project will likely seem much more desirable when described as having an 80% percent chance of breaking even in terms of NPV rather than as having a 20% chance of resulting in a negative NPV. Probability A related example involving simulation analysis is manipulating the lower cutoff levels reported for the distribution of possible NPVs. For example, the reported 10% lower cutoff for the NPV of a risky project will be less extreme than the 5% lower cutoff for the NPV of this project. Consider the following example in which the computed NPV of the project is $50,000 with a standard error of $35,000: -$50,000 -$25,000 $0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 NPV The lower 5% cutoff for the NPV of this project is negative (-$7,570) whereas the lower 10% cutoff for its NPV is positive ($5,146). As a result, summarizing the total risk of this project in terms of the 5% lower cutoff for its NPV could potentially make this project appear more risky to decision-makers than if the 10% lower cutoff was instead reported. 3.2. Framing Risk in Absolute or Relative Terms The risk of an investment might not seem so great if presented in percentage terms , but could seem overwhelming if presented in absolute terms. In many ways, relative numbers can obscure the full scope of risk by removing a reference point, whereas absolute numbers can be very difficult to interpret. 5 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 One way that this framing effect could influence financial decisions is by representing risk either in terms of percentage losses or dollar losses. For example, consider a person deciding whether to invest in a $4 call option on a $50 stock. An investment advisor could make the risk of the option appear smaller than investing in the stock itself by focusing on the fact that this investor can lose only a maximum of $4 on the call whereas he or she could potentially lose more than $4 on the stock. However if the advisor notes that the maximum $4 loss on the option represents a 100% of the person’s investment, whereas an investment in the stock would very likely not result in 100% loss, the person will likely view the stock as being less risky than the call option. Another simple example of how framing risk in absolute or relative terms can be applied to financial investments involves the opportunity to hedge risk using derivatives. For example, consider the case where you have invested $10,000 in a risky bond that has a 90% chance of paying its promised 15% yield and a 10% chance of default resulting in a 100% loss. You can invest in a bond swap that would reduce default risk by 50% but reduce the promised yield by 40%. Expressed this way in terms of percentage risk and return reduction, the bond swap appears to provide a favorable trade-off of lower return for lower risk. However, suppose the bond swap is instead expressed in absolute risk reduction: it would reduce default risk from 10% to 5% but reduce the promised yield from 15% to 9%. Now the bond swap does not appear to provide such a favorable trade-off of lower return for lower risk. Firms that follow a rigorous capital budgeting procedure using NPV analysis have virtually no flexibility to frame risk in absolute vs. relative terms. However, some firms evaluate real investments using their Internal Rate of Return (IRR), the required rate of return for which the computed NPV of the investment is zero, rather than using NPVs. Because IRRs are expressed as a percentage return rather than an absolute amount, it is possible that the use of IRR to compare completing projects may result in a differently perceived risk/return trade-off for the two projects and therefore lead to a different choice between them. As a simple example, consider two mutually-exclusive projects that both require an initial investment of $1 million. The safer of the two projects provides a 15% expected return in one year and has a 10% required rate of return based on its risk. The riskier of the two projects provides a 20% return in one year and has a 15% required rate of return based on its risk. Both projects have an IRR that exceeds its required return by 5%. Thus, both projects appear to provide the same level of return after adjusting for risk. However, the NPV of the safer project is computed as $1,000,000 1.15 NPV (safer ) $1,000,000 $45,500, 1.10 which is higher than the computed NPV for the riskier project: NPV (riskier ) $1,000,000 1.20 $1,000,000 $43,500. 1.15 6 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 Thus, the safer project appears better on a risk-adjusted basis in terms of NPV. Even though the difference between the IRR and the required rate of return is 5% for both the riskier and the safer project, the safer project delivers a higher NPV than the riskier one. 3.3. Number Size Framing With number size framing, the main idea is that smaller numbers will seem more significant when compared to one another then when large numbers are compared the same way. An application that this can have to financial investment decision making is whether risk is expressed using a measure that involves larger or smaller numbers. For example, if the chance of default of a certain hypothetical bond increases from 5% to 6%, this can seem like a much more significant increase in risk then if this change is expressed as a decrease from 95% to 94% in the probability of receiving the bond's promised yield. This results from the fact that an increase from 5% to 6% signifies a 20% increase in the chance of a default, whereas the decrease from 95% to 94% only signifies a 1.05% decrease in the chance of a full payout. Another situation in which number size framing applies is the comparison of a riskier and safer investments. For example, consider a person deciding between investing in a bond that has a 2% chance of default and one that has an 8% chance of default. Expressed in terms of the safer bond, the riskier bond has a 300% greater chance of defaulting. However, expressed in terms of the riskier bond, the safer bond has only a 75% lower chance of defaulting. Thus, the choice of base default rate (the 2% default rate for the safer bond vs. the 8% default rate for the riskier bond) can make the difference in default rates appear either larger or smaller. Number size framing effects could also have a significant impact on real investment scenarios. When making capital budgeting decisions for a firm, the decision maker must often compare several features of competing projects. For example, when conducting a break-even NPV analysis on two capital budgeting projects during simulation analysis, the two projects might seem to possess relatively similar risks if one has a 90% probability of breaking even whereas the other has a 95% chance of breaking even. The 5.26% difference in probability of the two projects being profitable might not seem like a deal-breaker. On the other hand, if the chance of failure to breakeven was instead highlighted, a difference in the probability of not breaking even of 5% vs.10% might be considered a very significant difference in risk between the two projects. 7 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 4. Implications The above analysis demonstrates that framing effects present a number of opportunities for those marketing financial products to consumers. Casual observation would show that marketers are already aware of some of these framing biases and are already adept at putting them to good use. In particular, attribute framing is often used when presenting financial investment products to buyers. Marketers understand that they must highlight the positive attributes of the products they are promoting in order to convince clients to invest in these products. In addition, marketers can express risk differences using small numbers, such as a 2% vs. 5% default probability for two bonds, when they would like to steer clients towards safer financial products and conversely expresses these risk difference using larger numbers (a 98% vs. 95% probability of realizing the promised yield for these two bonds) when they wish to promote riskier investments. Similarly, they can make certain financial products appear relatively safer to clients and others relatively more risky by choosing to the express the risk involved using either absolute or relative terms. Because not every investment is prudent, consumers must be able to filter through these marketing strategies to find out what is truly best for them. Smart consumers must therefore be aware of these strategies and be able to counteract them, and debias their decisions. According to Ackert & Deaves (2010) there are several steps that one can take to successfully debias one’s decisions. Debiasing requires awareness of the bias, the motivation to rid oneself of the bias, awareness of the direction and magnitude of the bias, and the ability to do what is needed to stop the bias from having an effect on investment decision. Debiasing is a difficult process and it is best to exercise environmental control so as to prevent the bias from ever taking root in the first place. Once the bias is existent in a person, that person must have the insight and the motivation to change his behaviours in order to debias his decisions. Financial education can also be improved by adapting the materials to fit with money attitudes and personality types of the people who are being educated. There exists a vast body of literature that shows that people can be grouped into personality types. Two well-known examples of psychographic profiling techniques are the Myers-Briggs and the planner-avoider continuum. Developing an investor educational programs that are matched with each personality profile would help investors understand the financial information more clearly and help them avoid biases. For example, the Mayer’s Briggs measures subjects on four different personality continuums to give each person a personality profile. The measurement continuums are: E Vs. I (Extrovert vs. Introvert; S vs. N (Sensing vs. Intuitive); T vs. F (Thinking vs. Feeling); J vs. P (Judging vs. Perceiving) (Larsen & Buss, 2008). The ESTP personality type appears to be the most overconfident and the least risk averse, on the opposite end of the spectrum is the INFJ personality profile is the least overconfident and the most risk averse. Designing financial education programs to help avoid biases, based on each individual person’s personality profile would better match the financial educational material to the needs of the person. This would hopefully help people 8 Proceedings of 8th Annual London Business Research Conference Imperial College, London, UK, 8 - 9 July, 2013, ISBN: 978-1-922069-28-3 better understand the financial information available, help them avoid biases, and help them make more informed decisions (Ackert & Deaves, 2010). 5. Summary and Conclusions This paper has shown ways in which attribute framing, framing risk in absolute vs. relative terms, and number size framing can potentially impact financial and real investment decisions. As a consequence, these three framing effects could be deliberately used by financial institutions to more effectively market their products to retail customers, and by vendors to more effectively market their products to business decision makers looking to make capital budgeting decisions. With such an onslaught of information being framed in a way that suits the needs of such sellers, as buyers of these products it would be important to be able to debias one’s decisions. The most effective way to debias one’s decisions is through awareness of the bias and the understanding of how to overcome it. This can be achieved through financial education that is more suited to each individual’s personality profile (Ackert & Deaves, 2010). A limitation of the current study is the lack of any experiments to test whether the framing effects discussed in this paper actually do influence individuals making financial or real investment decisions and, if so, the magnitude of any observed framing effects Potential mitigating or moderating factors, such as personality type or gender could also be investigated. In addition, there are other types of framing mentioned in the literature that potentially could be applied to financial and/or real investment decision-making. 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