Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 Do Market Anomalies Add Up? William J. Trainor Jr.* and Larissa Steinfeldt** The implication from market anomaly studies suggest that trading based on price earnings ratios, size, price book, momentum, and volatility can produce excess returns. This study examines these anomalies independently and in combination to determine how often they work, when they work, and what return can be expected. Based on the last 20 years, findings suggest excess returns are still available for some of these anomalies with the probability of success reaching up to 90% for any given 6-month period. Somewhat surprisingly, combining anomalies does not lead to even greater returns. PE, size, and PB continue to be highly correlated with returns while beta and volatility appear to be functional risk metrics. Finance JEL Codes: G11 and G12 1. Introduction In an efficient market, stock prices adjust quickly to new information that becomes available to investors. Thus, stock prices and returns should be relatively unpredictable and are often described as a random walk. In reality, a number of anomalies have been found that do not entirely mesh with the Efficient Market Hypothesis as set forth by Fama (1965). Keim (2006) calls them exceptions to the rule. Although there is a substantial literature on a variety of supposed anomalies, the more commonly agreed upon are the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, size, price-to-book (PB) ratio often referred to as market value to book value (MV/BV), momentum, and volatility. Based on the literature, the “perfect” stock should have a low PE, low market cap, low PB, high momentum, and low volatility as all these characteristics have been associated with excess stock returns at one time or another. This study examines these anomalies over the last 20 years to determine the excess returns that could have been achieved if they had been followed. Since all these anomalies were known before this time period, the results should at least address the data mining problem to some extent. By breaking down portfolio choices to every 6 months, this study also estimates how often and how persistent these anomalies are over time. In an effort so see if the anomalies work during both bullish and bear markets, the returns following the anomaly trading rules are separated by when the market is up and down. Finally, portfolios are created based on stocks meeting multiple anomaly criteria to see if even greater market returns may be possible. Overall results suggest that PE, size, and PB anomalies are still going strong. There is little to no evidence suggesting the momentum or volatility anomaly is useful for attaining excess returns, nor is combining two or more functioning anomalies. Using PE, size, and PB values for trading work in both * Dr. William J. Trainor Jr,,CFA, Department of Economics and Finance, East Tennessee State University, Email: trainor@etsu.edu **Larissa Steinfeldt, East Tennessee State University, Email: steinfeldt@goldmail.etsu.edu 1 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 bullish and bearish markets, suggesting they are true anomalies and not proxies for some underlying latent risk factor. The much maligned beta from the Capital Asset Pricing Model appears to be an excellent measure of risk as it explains 60 to 85% of returns across portfolios given the direction of the market, but similar to most all other studies, beta is statistically insignificant after combining all market periods. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section two reviews the literature while Section three describes the data and methodology. Section four presents the results for the individual anomalies as well as for portfolios combining two or more of the anomalies. The paper concludes with a short analysis along with the practical implications of this research. 2. Literature Review One of the more easily identifiable stock statistics, the PE ratio, has likely been in use as a measure of value since stock trading began. Thus, one might expect that any value it has in predicting excess returns has been traded away long ago. However, Basu (1977) showed this is not the case when finding that lower P/E stocks tend to outperform. Similarly, Banz (1981) finds that size is also an important variable. Using data over the previous 40 years, he shows that small size stocks outperform large stocks by 5% annually. Using yet another simple accounting type variable, Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein (1985) show that low market value to book value ratios are highly related to returns. Fama and French (1993, 1996, 2008) reconfirm these anomalies. Stepping away from static variables, Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) found that stocks demonstrate momentum. In essence, stocks that go up tend to keep going up while stocks that go down tend to keep going down. Their results suggest buying stocks that go up the most over the previous 6 months will outperform over the next 6 months. Those that have negative momentum will underperform over the following 6 months. Aby and Vaughn (1995) suggest buying strong momentum stocks largely outperform as well. Behavioral finance explains the phenomena based on a simple herding type mentality. Although the volatility anomaly has been known since at least Jensen, Black, and Scholes’ (1972) study on the CAPM, the discussion of the anomaly has seen a resurgence with Ang, Xing, and Zhang’s (2006) study showing stocks with low volatility still tend to generate higher returns than stocks with high volatility. Based on their research, they found these results to be relatively stable through different holding periods and economic states. One might expect these market anomalies to disappear as experienced investors begin exploiting them. The January effect, first pointed out by Rozeff and Kinney (1976) and again by Tinic and West (1984) may be a case in point as it has somewhat waned over the years. However, Haughen and Jorian (1996) show it was still going strong at least through 1993. List (2003) actually tests whether market experience affects the existence of market anomalies. He reveals that it does have a remarkable influence and appears relatively robust to change and different marketplaces. Not everyone is convinced of the value of these anomaly findings. Silver (2009) argues no one is able to repetitively profit from investing in anomalies. He concludes that it is not worth it and justifies this conclusion by arguing anomalies are not predictable enough and often disappear. 2 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 However, recent studies continue to indicate that the anomalies reviewed in this research still exist. Latif, Arshad, Fatima , & Farooq (2011) give evidence that using price-to-earnings ratio, market-tobook value, and momentum can still provide excess returns. However, they find that purchasing winners is more risky than anything else, but then again it offers the opportunity to greater success. Ang, Xing, and Zhang (2009) and Silva (2012) reconfirm that low volatility stocks outperform as does Luk, Kang, and Luo (2012) using data from 2000 to 2011. Amel-Zadeh (2008) samples the German stock market to address issues connected to the size-effect. He finds an effect, but also finds that size is connected to strong momentum which would be expected. Furthermore, he finds that the information flow, both positive and negative, from small businesses to investors takes longer. This explains stronger upward and downward momentum at certain points of time. Finally, based on information from over 600 studies on anomalies, Len Zacks (2011) concludes that market anomalies do stand out. He states that anomalies show a 15% growth in returns both longterm and short-term. To back up his conclusions, Zacks put together different portfolios which include stocks that fit into different anomaly categories. His portfolios show a remarkable growth in return after 25 years. 3. Data and Methodology U.S. accounting and price data are drawn from Research Insight and the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP). Research Insight was screened for stocks in three anomaly categories including size, PE, and PB. Monthly return data is attained from CRSP. Momentum and volatility is calculated based on the preceding 6 months of returns for each rolling 6 month return analyzed which runs from Jan. 1992 to Dec. 2012. This provides 41 unique 6 month return periods. Betas for each stock are calculated by using the previous three years of monthly data. Data from both databases are merged resulting in a sample of 849 stocks that fit into the predetermined categories. Most stocks were eliminated due to substantial missing data in one data set or the other which may lead to some survivorship bias in our results. In addition, stocks with negative PEs during any 6 month period are not included in any portfolios for the following 6 months. For each one of the five anomalies, the values are ranked and portfolio deciles are created for every 6 month period based on values of the previous month for accounting data, and values based on the preceding 6-months for the volatility and momentum variables. A 12 month period is also used to measure volatility with little change in the results for this variable. Average returns in excess of the risk free rate are calculated for all portfolios based on an equal weighting for each stock. Additionally, the data is filtered depending on the current market direction. This determines whether an anomaly is more observable for bull or bear markets. Regressions are run across the portfolio deciles to estimate whether the slope is significantly different from zero. Finally, portfolios are formed based on whether stocks meet the criteria for multiple anomalies. Using only the anomalies that appear to have merit, several portfolios are created meeting up to 3 anomaly criteria. These portfolios are compared to stocks on the exact opposite of the spectrum. So as to keep at least 30 stocks in both of these extreme portfolios, quartiles instead of deciles had to be used for 3 anomalies and quintiles for 2 anomalies. As an example, the PE and size portfolio combines 3 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 stocks of the smallest 20% of companies and the lowest 20% of price-earnings ratio. This is compared to a portfolio that is composed of stocks in the largest 20% for size and PE ratios. Welch’s t-test is used to determine if there is a significant difference in means. 4. Results 4.1 Overall Results Table 1 shows the average 6-month decile return results for the five anomalies plus beta from Jan. 1992 to Dec. 2012. Deciles are from small to large. PE, size, and PB are all found to be significant with 6-month excess returns for the smallest portfolios ranging from 13.4% to 15.6% while returns for the largest portfolios range from 4.7% to 6.8%. Returns are almost entirely monotonically decreasing with regressions having r-squares from 58 to 80%. Momentum is not found to be significant in this study and in fact, those stocks that have fallen the most over the previous 6 months perform best over the following 6 months. If one ignores the worst and best performers, there is economically little difference in returns for the middle 8 momentum portfolios. Volatility actually has the highest level of significance but in the exact opposite direction of what is expected based on the idea of an anomaly. More coherent with common sense, the highest volatility stocks perform best. 6-month returns increase from 5.0% to 13.4% suggesting higher risk is indeed rewarded with higher returns. This is in contrast to the Ang et al. (2006) study, but the measurement, time period, and sample differ. In addition, no attempt was made to refine stock selection with other variables and it is possible that a better volatility forecasting model such as GARCH may have improved these results. At the very least, the application of this anomaly does not seem to work in a simplified straight forward manner as do the other variables. Finally, 6-month returns for beta sorted portfolios reconfirms previous research in that there still does not appear to be a statistically significant relationship between beta and returns. This result changes however if the lowest beta stock portfolio is removed giving some hope for using beta to attain expected greater returns. Table 1: Average Excess Returns 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Slope R-sq. PE 13.4 11.5 8.4 7.6 6.4 6.3 6.6 5.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8** 0.80 Size 15.1 10.1 8.5 8.2 6.9 7.1 6.5 6.2 6.4 5.2 -0.8* 0.72 PB 15.6 9.8 8.7 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.8 -0.7* 0.58 Momentum 12.3 8.2 7.7 6.5 7.5 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.7 9.5 -0.2 0.10 Volatility 5.0 6.1 5.6 6.9 7.0 6.9 9.4 9.4 11.8 13.4 0.9** 0.88 Beta 9.3 6.9 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.6 8.9 8.4 9.8 0.1 0.22 6-month average excess returns in percent from Jan. 1992 to Dec. 2012 based on decile portfolio rankings from the preceding time period. **Significant at the 5% level, **Significant at the 1% level. 4 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 4.2 Anomaly Timing In an effort to see if successful implementation of trading these anomalies depends on the market environment, portfolio returns for each anomaly are separated into 6-month periods based of whether the market has increased or decreased. Table 2 shows the 6 month average excess returns separated by up and down markets. PE, size, and PB show the same relationship regardless of the market direction suggesting they are true anomalies. Small PE, size, and PB always leads to superior returns relative to large PE, size, and PB ratios. Momentum is again insignificant, although both the worst and best performers over the previous 6 months do best over the next 6 months. For volatility, those that are the most volatile again perform best in a rising market but perform poorly in a declining market. Beta also is strongly related to stocks explaining 64% of the deviation in returns across portfolios in rising markets, and 86% of the deviation in declining markets. This result is in line with Pettengill, Sundaram, and Mathur (1995) suggesting beta is a good measure of risk given the direction of the market. Summarizing, portfolios with small PE, size, and PB outperform in both bear and bull markets. Momentum does not appear to be strong enough to profit from unless focusing on only the best and worst performers, while volatility and beta demonstrate they are functional measures of risk as high volatility and high beta stocks do well in up markets but poorly in down markets. Table 2: Average Excess Returns Separated by Up and Down Markets Up Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Slope R-sq. PE 17.1 12.9 10.6 10.3 9.2 9.4 10.0 8.3 10.0 8.6 -0.7** 0.59 Size 19.4 13.0 11.2 11.6 9.8 10.9 10.4 10.4 10.5 9.6 -0.7* 0.51 PB 19.9 13.0 12.3 11.1 10.0 11.0 10.6 11.0 10.9 11.2 -0.6* 0.41 Mom. 17.1 12.1 11.3 9.7 10.6 10.2 10.4 10.3 11.6 14.5 -0.2 0.06 Vol. 6.8 8.6 8.4 9.7 10.4 10.6 13.6 14.3 16.6 19.2 1.3** 0.93 Beta 11.7 9.4 9.8 10.9 11.4 11.9 11.1 13.2 12.9 15.6 0.5** 0.64 Down Market PE 1.8 6.5 1.5 -0.7 -2.2 -3.0 -3.5 -4.5 -6.2 -6.7 -1.2** 0.85 Size 3.1 2.0 0.8 -1.5 -1.4 -3.9 -4.7 -5.5 -5.3 -7.3 -1.1** 0.97 PB 3.7 0.8 -1.4 -2.2 -0.7 -4.4 -3.7 -4.6 -6.0 -5.7 -1.0** 0.87 Mom. -1.2 -2.7 -2.7 -2.3 -1.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.2 -3.5 -4.6 -0.2 0.15 Vol. 0.0 -1.0 -2.1 -1.1 -2.5 -3.6 -2.4 -4.3 -1.8 -3.1 -0.3* 0.51 Beta 2.6 -0.3 -0.9 -2.1 -2.3 -1.8 -2.2 -3.5 -4.5 -6.8 -0.8** 0.86 6-Month average excess returns in percent from Jan. 1992 to Dec. 2012 based on decile portfolio rankings from the preceding time period separated by up and down markets. *Significant at the 5% level, **Significant at the 1% level. 4.3 Probability of Success On average, buying portfolios with low PEs, small market cap, and low PB ratios outperform. Table 3 shows the probability of success these strategies have had over the last 10 and 20 years. The 5 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 trading strategy is measured as a success if the Decile 1 portfolio return exceeds the Decile 10 portfolio return. The most substantial finding is that the probability of success does not appear to be decreasing as the probabilities for the last 10 and 20 years are virtually the same. The biggest change is for the PE strategy with the probability of success actually increasing over the last 10 years to 90%. Trading based on momentum or beta is virtually a 50-50 proposition while low volatility stocks only outperform approximately 40% of the time. Again, not only does trading based on PE, size, or PB outperform on average, they outperform 70% or more of the time. Table 3: Portfolio 1 Minus Portfolio 10 Returns Period ending June 03 Dec. 03 June 04 Dec. 04 June 05 Dec. 05 June 06 Dec. 06 June 07 Dec. 07 June 08 Dec. 08 June 09 Dec. 09 June 10 Dec. 10 June 11 Dec. 11 June 12 Dec. 12 PE 21.0 18.4 0.4 31.1 9.1 7.7 2.5 5.2 11.2 -0.9 5.8 8.7 32.0 7.8 6.6 -13.5 9.0 1.3 20.9 16.2 Size PB Momentum Volatility 31.0 21.1 15.3 -26.1 22.3 23.1 2.9 -30.2 10.5 14.6 -11.9 -4.5 16.4 5.0 -5.3 -11.3 8.7 6.3 -3.3 5.9 2.4 -4.5 -0.6 -14.6 4.0 2.5 -10.0 -1.7 3.3 4.4 4.8 5.4 7.1 1.3 5.1 -13.8 -9.4 -19.1 -14.0 3.2 1.5 -10.2 -7.6 9.7 -11.5 -1.7 7.2 22.5 55.2 48.6 76.9 -38.8 22.3 25.0 0.1 -50.4 19.3 7.0 4.5 0.0 -10.7 -7.7 5.8 -18.2 3.2 -4.6 5.0 8.5 -5.7 -9.2 -7.7 14.0 21.9 23.0 16.7 0.1 -2.4 15.3 -7.6 -5.6 Probability of Success 10 year Avg. 90.0 75.0 65.0 55.0 40.0 20 year Avg. 82.5 73.2 70.7 53.7 39.0 Return difference in percent for smallest and largest portfolios is given. Probability of averages are given for the last 10 and 20 years, only last 10 individual years are shown. Beta -20.2 -5.1 10.1 -1.1 2.5 -6.0 -2.4 -2.9 -7.8 8.0 5.6 16.0 -15.6 -14.2 1.7 -1.8 -3.5 7.4 11.6 -2.5 40.0 48.8 success 4.4 Combining Anomalies If a single anomaly works well, one might think combining anomalies to create portfolios would be even better. Unfortunately, Table 4 shows this is not the case. Although stock portfolios that meet multiple criteria outperform portfolios on the opposite extremes, the absolute magnitude of the excess return falls well short of Decile 1 portfolio returns formed using only PE, size, or PB. 6 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 One of the major drawbacks in combining anomalies is being able to find stocks that have a low PE, small size, and small price book. Even though the sample started with more than 800 companies, combining more than three anomalies often resulted in no stocks available or so few as to make any results meaningless. Results clearly suggest that relaxing the constraints to find enough stocks to form an adequately diversified portfolio is associated with dramatically decreased returns relative to forming decile portfolios on a single anomaly. Table 4: Multiple Anomaly Excess Returns Portfolio 1 Portfolio 5 t-stat Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. PE, size, PB 9.8 31.6 7.1 27.7 52.9** PE & Size 10.4 35.1 8.8 28.8 3.28** PE & PB 8.4 27.4 7.4 28.8 4.29** Size & PB 9.1 33.3 7.9 25.7 4.66** *Significant at the 5% level, **Significant at the 1% level Average excess returns in percent for stock portfolios based on multiple anomaly criteria from Jan. 1992 to Dec. 2012. Welch’s t-stat for the difference in means is provided. 5. Conclusion Trading based on market anomalies seemingly could lead to excess returns, assuming of course the anomalies themselves are not traded away. A number of mutual funds and ETFs have been created over the last several years to hopefully do just this. In their seminal paper, Fama and French (1993) identified PE, size, and PB as significant explanatory variables of portfolio returns reconfirming what other studies had identified even earlier. 20 years later, forming portfolios based on these variables would have worked spectacularly. This study finds that average 6-month returns are 8-10% higher over the following 6 months for portfolios formed based on the lowest values of these variables compared to the highest. The probability of success ranges from 65 to 90% over any 6-month period and the strategy works regardless of the market environment. Momentum is not found to be significant although some strategies based on the worst and highest momentum may have merit. Volatility and beta are related to returns given one knows the market direction. Beta on average is not found to be significant but volatility is, although this is in contrast to some studies suggesting low volatility stocks outperform. From a personal investing standpoint, with PE, size, and PB variables being so readily available, forming portfolios based on these values appears to be an easy way to attain significant excess returns. Since these portfolios do better in both bull and bear markets, it is questionable whether they are simple proxies for latent risk factors. Seemingly, excess returns to this type of strategy would have been traded away by now, but that does not appear to be the case, as the probability that these strategies work has not declined over the last 10 years. Finally, trying to find the perfect stock or portfolio by combining anomalies does not appear to be operationally functional. Being forced to relax the magnitude of the PE, size, or PB value to find enough stocks that meet multiple criteria leads to sup par returns when compared to using a single anomaly. More complicated models can be created, but the simplicity to the application of the above 7 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 strategy for common investors is going to be difficult to justify. Finally, computing power and access to the data sets used in this study was likely limited 20 years ago. Looking back in time with the computing power of today may lead to substantial bias and an overestimation of the returns that actual trading can provide. Only time will tell if trading on these anomalies continues to result in substantial excess returns. References Aby, C. D., & Vaughn, D. E. 1995. Asset Allocation Techniques and Financial Market Timing, Westport, Connecticut: Quorum Books. Amel-Zadeh, A. 2008, December 30. “The Return of the Size Anomaly: Evidence from the German Stock Market,” Social Science Research Network. Retrieved March 2013, from: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=952472 Ang, A., Hodrick, R. J., Xing, Y., & Zhang, X. 2006. “The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns,” The Journal of Finance, 61, pp. 259-299. Ang, A., Hodrick, R. J., Xing, Y., & Zhang, X. 2009. “High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: International and Further U.S. Evidence.” Journal of Financial Economics, 91, pp. 1-23. Banz, R. W. 1981. “The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks,” Journal of Financial Economics, 9, pp. 3-18. Basu, S. 1977. “Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis,” The Journal of Finance, 32, pp. 663-682. Fama, E. F. 1965. “Random Walks in Stock Market Prices,” Financial Analysts Journal 21(5), pp. 55– 59. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. 1996. “Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies,” The Journal of Finance, 51(1), pp. 55-84. Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. 1992. "The Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance 67, pp. 427-465. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. 2008. “Dissecting Anomalies,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 63, No. 4, pp. 1653-78. Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. 1993. “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency,” The Journal of Finance, 48, pp. 65-91. Jensen, Michael C., Black, Fisher, and Scholes, M.S. 1972. “The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Empirical Tests”, Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets, Praeger Publishers Inc., 1972; Keim, D. B. 2006. “Financial Market Anomalies,” Knowledge@Wharton. Retrieved February 2013, from 8 Proceedings of World Business and Economics Research Conference 24 - 25 February, 2014, Rendezvous Hotel, Auckland, New Zealand, ISBN: 978-1-922069-45-0 http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~keim/research/NewPalgraveAnomalies%28May302006%29 .pdf Latif, M., Arshad, S., Fatima , M., & Farooq, S. 2011. “Market Efficiency, Market Anomalies, Causes, Evidences,” Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2, pp. 1-14. List, J. A. 2003. “Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), pp. 41-71. Luk, P., Kang, X., & Luo, F. 2012. “Introducing GIVI: The S&P Global Intrinsic Value Index,” Social Science Research Network. Retrieved March 2013, from: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2062468 Pettengill, G.N, Sundaram, S. and Mathur, I. 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30, pp. 101-116. Rozeff, M. S. and Kinney Jr. W. R. 1976. “Capital Market Seasonality: The Case of Stock Returns,” Journal of Financial Economics, 3, pp. 379-402. Haugen, R. and Jorion, P. 1996, The January Effect: Still There After All These Years,” Financial Analysts Journal 52, pp. 27-31. Silva, Harindra de. 2012. “Exploiting the Volatility Anomaly in Financial Markets,” CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, March, pp. 47-57. Silver, T. 2009. “Making Sense Of Market Anomalies,” Retrieved February 2013, from: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/market-anomaly-efficientmarket.asp#axzz2M46ju8ed Tinic, S., and West, R. 1984. "Risk and Return: January vs. the Rest of the Year." Journal of Financial Economics, 13, pp. 561-574. Zacks, L. 2011. Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies. Wiley, Interviewer, Retrieved March 2013, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZKvd1I0LsE 9