Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 Perspectives of Monetary Systems Development Andrey V. Bystrov* and Vyacheslav N. Yusim** In the article, the transformation perspectives of national monetary and international currency systems are considered.The evolution character of changing one another benchmarking methods of purchasing power is substantiated.The classification of money types and monetary system classes according to a joint classification attribute: benchmarking method of purchasing power – is offered. The hypothesis of the existence of the law describing the correlation between the benchmarking method of currency purchasing power and the economic-technological civilization development level is grounded.It is shown that a new type of virtual money with a constant purchasing power has to emerge as the result of this law effect at the national level. At the international level, in future the same demand for correspondence will firstly bring about the making up of supranational units of account of regional and political alliances of countries and then the emergence of supranational world’s currency with a constant purchasing power.It is substantiated that a purchasing power benchmark will become the basis of national money with a constant purchasing power, units of account of regional and political alliances of countries as well as supranational world’s currency. The principle of such a benchmark creation is considered and it is demonstrated that the level of the modern technological possibilities lets set it up and use rather efficiently already at the present moment.It is asserted that the statement of economic theory concerning the impossibility of purchasing power benchmark creation does not live up to reality. The authors demonstrate that the prove of practical possibility of setting up a purchasing power benchmark has become the verification act of theoretically grounded tendencies of monetary systems and money type change determining these tendencies. JEL Codes: E10, E69, F01, F02, F33, F42, O33 and O42 1. Introduction Only in the XX century, there were four different world’s currencies1. Each time the change of the currency system was under compulsion. In fact, it was not that a new theoretical concept regarding the system change ruled the brains but the practical admittance of its extreme inefficiency, moreover, its practical inability to function caused the change (e.g. the Bretton-Woods’s system collapse). By the end of the XX century, it had become obvious that none of the previously successfully acting world’s currency exchange systems can satisfy either economy or theory. The three of four acting in the XX century had beendenied because of their inefficiency. The fourth one is on the way [2, 3, 4, and 5]. The national currency systems do a bit better. The economic theory stands out only two such types of systems: system of metal circulation and monetary notes system. The latter * Dr., Prof. Andrey V. Bystrov, Department of Industrial Econonics, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russia. E-mail: bistrov-sun@mail.ru **Dr., Prof. Vyacheslav N. Yusim, Department of Industrial Econonics, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russia. E-mail: vn62@yandex.ru 1 The Gold Standard system, Paris Agreement of 1867; Gold Exchange Standard system adopted at the international conference in Genoa, 1922; Bretton-Woods' currency system adopted in 1944 and Jamaican currency system of Floating Exchange Rates acting since 1976. 1 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 substituted the former one not so long ago, only about one hundred years and has not been at its resources yet. The surprisingly fast changing world under the strain of technical progress does not leave any hope for its (monetary system) long-term existence. By and large the contradictions between money functions as a standard of value and a payment means; as circulation medium and saving medium; as a standard of value and world currency are dramatically increasing. The volatility of exchange systems that makes world economic crises start is going up. The existing exchange currency system does not suit most countries. 2. The Problem Research Among the contradictions causing a historic change and upgrading of national currency systems,there is a market need, on the one hand, to provide exchange of goods and services by means of circulation, i.e. money, on the other hand, to secure that moneyexercise its function of a standard of value [6, 7 и 8]. The more the output of the economy is, the higher the production specialization is, the more monetary units to provide exchange function are demanded. In such a case, the performance of another currency function, that of a standard of value, requires the provision of uniformity of measures of commodity cost: the purchasing power parity of each existing in circulation monetary unit. There emerges a contradiction between requirements to commodity as a benchmark and requirements to it as a working measure. In fact, the benchmark must ideally be the only one but there must be many working measures. Currency exchange systems at the beginning of their existence as well as the existing ones have developed overcoming this contradiction. Exchange costs in authentic exchange systems depended most of all on a type of a commodity-benchmark which (for example, a sheep) made exchange possible with substantial costs related to storing, transportation and inconvenience of equivalent exchange. Moreover, such a benchmark had a very low accuracy as a cost unit; and its function of a payment means contradicted its function of a saving means. The situation has radically improved together with the transfer to benchmarking by means of another commodity – gold. It occurred immediately when there appeared the technical possibility to compare accurately enough the weighed amounts of gold [9, 10]. At the same time, the way of benchmarking has not changed neither the benchmarking method nor the method of transfer of a purchasing power unit from a benchmark to working measure of purchasing power – monetary unit – have changed. A cost benchmark has remained a unit cost of some commodity (a sheep or a gold measure) as it used to be. The essence of the method of a transfer of a purchasing power unit to working measure has just remained the same ever since as the amount of each working measure of value has been strictly determined by the amount of a benchmarking commodity contained in it. Alongside with the growth of technological opportunities and corresponding growth of goods production, the faults initially in-built in this method of benchmarking became obvious. Gold turned to be in short supply to perform its main function of exchange. It meant that there occurred the contradiction between market demands in circulation means and possibilities of monetary system to secure them. The inner controversy of the monetary system had stood out. The money function as a circulation means came into antagonism with its functions as a payment means and a saving means. Money (gold) was washed off the circulation in order to perform the latter two functions. 2 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 The new technological opportunities (production of hard to forge and long-lasting paper banknote) made it possible to transfer to a new more efficient type of money. Giving that, the money function as a measure of value has become to be secured by only a virtual link with the amount of gold supply stated by financial authorities. For some time, the above allowed getting rid of the controversy between the market requirements to money as a means of circulation. The intrinsic contradictions of the monetary system betweenthe function of money as a means of circulation and its function of a means of payment and saving also diminished because gold stopped being used by the population to make transactions. However, the demand for the provision of the whole volume of money by benchmark commodity hadalso started to limit the market circulation possibilities. There rose again the contradiction between a money function as a means of circulation and its function as a standard of value. The existing monetary system started to slow down the economic growth again. The developed countries transferred to a more efficient money type for that civilization development stage. Money units formally not connected with any real cost benchmark started to play the part of working measure of value. This type of money established itself in the XX century and is still valid at the beginning of the XXI century. [12] Alongside with this money type and technological opportunities and production volume growth, the contradictions between market needs and possibilities of monetary system of this type to provide commodity circulation stability are increasing. The monetary system becomes an instability factor and a hindrance to economic growth. A real life demands its perfection. The transfer to a next type of money and next class of monetary system is coming to a head. 3. Methodology and Results Market Objectives A market function is to provide an efficient, from a society point of view, commodity and service exchange that is achieved by more or less successful three objectives’ solution. All the three are well known and initially attributed to a monetary system. First objective– decrease and fair distribution of circulation costs. To this end, money was set up [12]. Its evolution from commodity money like sheep or nails to symbolic banknote or e-money impresses one with circulation costs decrease directly connected with a money system.At the same time, a boosting growth of market transactions makes the civilization consider its reasonable adjustment. The opportunity to separate such functions as a means of payment and a means of circulation between different money types can and mustgive national monetary systems a new and higher quality. Second objective – also well known, but it is rarely associated with the requirements to a monetary system. The problem at issue is that market economy builds up its efficiency only when it gives preference to the most efficient industrial proprietor from the public point of view [12]. Price allows assessing each manufacturer’s contribution to the well-being and singling out the most efficient one. A high bias while measuring a commodity cost makes the market lose its ability to distinguish the most efficient manufacturer. This is a disaster for a market system. It stops 3 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 facilitating the economic growth because the main growth stimulus– personal commitment vanishes. The increase in accuracy of labor measures of value – money – is directly connected with the stability of economy. However, nowthe economic system has run out of its stability options. The use of money with a constant purchasing power will enrich economy with a new quality, alongside with traditional, known to everybody, or the so-calledworking money. A benchmark of purchasing power is necessary to set up such money. New money will practically play a part of gold without having any of its faults. Third objective – provision of accurate comparison of purchasing power of various national currencies. Its practical solution points at the use of supranational benchmark of purchasing power of various countries’ currencies and, consequently, the use of a supranational unit of account and then supranational currency. Nowadays there exist both: a theoretical basis and a practical possibility of making such benchmarks[1,14]. Link between monetary system and money type The economic theory characterizing the history of the mature by now monetary systems distinguishes their two types: national and world, anddistinguishes three main types of money as the basic feature of the development stages of monetary systems. Strictly speaking, one cannot consider such classification completely accurate. In fact, commodity money is secured, without doubt.Secured money turns loosely bound to commodity values that actually serve as itssecurity. Consequently, a common classification feature at consideration – a method of purchasing power security - appears substantially vague. The fact of the existence of acknowledged but debatable classifications of money types demonstrates immaturity of theoretical ideas about the mechanism of the rise of the first and most important money function – a measure of value. Table 1 The evolution of methods of currency purchasing power benchmarking Way of fixing a benchmark Real A1 Virtual A2 Way of transferring a purchasing power unit Commodity.B1 Market. B2 Method of benchmarking Method of benchmarking Real commodity Real market A1B1 A1B2 Method of benchmarking Method of benchmarking Virtual commodity Virtual market A2B1 A2B2 Classification shows that in the market history two ways of fixing a purchasing power benchmark were used: real and virtual. In order to transfer purchasing power units from a benchmark to working measures (banknotes and coins) two methods were also used. They can be marked out as a commodity one and a market one. The commodity way bears a measure of value in the commodity itself and the market way renders similar value of any monetary unit due to market institution pressure. The combination of the way of setting a benchmark and the way of transferring a purchasing power unit generates the method of benchmarking. There can be only four methods: method A1B1 or real commodity method; method A2B1 or virtual 4 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 commodity method; method A2B2 or virtual market method and the last one is method A1B2 or real market method (Table 1). A real type of money corresponds to the three out of four benchmarking methods that existed in the history of civilization and marked above. There is a method of benchmarking not previously used left. Benchmark money corresponds to it. Ways of benchmark creation Way А2 Way А1 Methods of benchmarking of purchasing power MethodА 1B1 Way B1 Method А2B1 Forecast Method А2B2 Method А1B2 Way B2 Way of transferring a purchasing power unit value Fig.1. The historic change of benchmarking methods of money purchasing power The change of benchmarking methods resulted from the conflict resolution between the demand for efficiency increase of market economy and opportunities of its mature monetary system. Moreover, in all cases the main reason for the conflict origin is a technical progress. If we arrange monetary systems in the efficiency ascending order demonstrated throughout history, each type of money will be associated with its own method of purchasing power benchmarking (Fig.1). Actually speaking it means that under market economy terms there emerges a law like tendency describing the correlation between the benchmarking method of currency purchasing power and the economic-technological civilization development level. As the scheme of historic sequence of benchmarking methods shows (Fig.1), there is only one method left, which has not been used before. Thus, the next foreseen step of money evolution will be a transfer to the money relevant to a real market method of benchmarking А1В2. 5 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 Monetary systems may be divided into classes according to their type of money.The classes of monetary systems arranged in efficiency ascending order are demonstrated in Table 2. Table 2 The correlation between monetary systems, benchmarking methods and money type Money type Monetary system class Methods of benchmarking of currency purchasing power A1B1 А2B1 А2B2 А1B2 Secured by Symbolic Benchmarked, Real commodity institutionally institutionally commodity symbolic money secured money. secured money. money Type A1B1. Type А2B1. Type А2B2 Type А1B2. Class A monetary system Class B monetary system Class C monetary system Class D monetary system How can the “real market method bring itself about in reality? What is corresponding to it class D of monetary systems? Benchmark method A1B2 assumes the use of the real benchmark of purchasing power of currencies and market mechanism of its value transfer to a new benchmark currency used in the economy. Actually speaking, the next stage of efficiency increase of national currency systems is connected with the introduction of artificial value benchmark, the possibility of the creation of which the economic theory does not accept. This also means that it is necessary to introduce money with constant purchasing power to the economy. Actually speaking it is about setting value analogues of gold used in national as well as in international monetary systems. The Comparison of Purchasing Power of National Currencies There is no doubt that,for the sake of the international trade goals, it is necessary to either know a numerical value of national currencies purchasing power of the country-participants of trade transactions or, at least, to know the relationship of their purchasing powers. At the same time, in order to evaluate the relevant value of currency purchasing power, it is necessary to use a unit, i.e. a measure or a constant benchmark representing this unit. The economic theory closely approached the use of a benchmark long ago, while comparing purchasing powers of various countries’ currencies. The matter concerns the theory of purchasing power parity. It originates from the ideas of English economists D. Hume and D. Riccardo. Within the frames of the theory of purchasing power parity, its logic claims that any currency is to have similar purchasing power in all countries. In other words, a dollar must allow buying the similar number of goods both in the USA and Japan, and a yen must allow buying the similar number of goods both in Japan and in the USA [14]. 6 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 A Swedish economist G. Cassel is believed to be the first to ground the theory of purchasing power parity rather in full in 1918. Samuelson, the Noble Prize Winner, supported him. He wrote, “The correlation change of exchange rate, given equal conditions is proportionate to correlation change between our prices and prices abroad” [1, p.514]. However, this means, that it is enough to take any of revealed values of purchasing power parity for a unit (benchmark) and track deviation of current inflated or deflated prices from it, in order to calculate the change of a current purchasing power parity of currencies regarding the benchmark one. Samuelson's opinion reflects theoretically a completely convincing idea that not the price ratio itself but its change mustform the values of relevant purchasing power (or a purchasing power parity) of two national currencies. For example, if a purchasing power of one of them drops by 40%, according to the ideas of purchasing power essence, exchange rate is also to change by 40 % in favor of the currency which purchasing power has remained the same. However, it is considered, that value changes of purchasing power parity do not correspond to exchange rate, at least, in the middle term of 10-15 year. It wrote,“ If 1970 is a base year, the price index ratioin 1986 Mexico to price index ratio in 1986 in the USA makes up 32.4…<in the same period>…a peso became 46 times cheaper than a dollar”. That means that the exchange rate changed 1.5 times more than the price change. The other data from the same source say that from 1975 to 1987,” the US inflation was on average lower than in Britain. In compliance with purchasing power parity (PPP) a dollar had to become more expensive but, in fact, a dollar price to pound sterling dropped… Trade fluctuations and capital flows explain these discrepancies [1, p.725, 726]. One can draw a conclusion: reality does not prove practice. No matter what the reasons for the difference between a theoretically forecast result from a real one are, one cannot acknowledge the theory as it has not passed the empiric test. However, not in this case - theory is just, and its difference from practice is explained by the inaccuracy of empiric result interpretation. Let us demonstrate that a quotation method at the stock exchange is inaccurate in principle and its fault may be so high that quotations cannot be used as a method of defining relative PPP of currencies. This statement sounds nonsense to every highly educated economist. Market determines the true price of a commodity, does not it? Stock trading is the closest to a perfect market. That is true because stock trading deals with similar commodities, moreover, all market players have similar information and there are a lot of buyers and sellers at the market. Meanwhile, economic theory [1, 12] does not pay enough attention to the peculiar features of currency tradingwhich make them hardly valid for public or true assessment of traded commodities – currencies. While modelling a classical market it is always assumed that, a seller maximizes his selfish interests provided there is a demand for his commodities. It is worth emphasizing the demand caused by public needs for these commodities. A seller may influence a commodity price (measure of its value) by vote. Moreover, it is assumed that the commodity value for a buyer is real. In other words, he will not buy more bread than he can eat, and under the same conditions, he will always buy a cheaper commodity. Besides, a seller and a buyer do not swap places. Thus, a baker will not try to buy a just sold loaf of bread and keep repeating this transaction every other minute. In addition, at the commodities exchange a substantial bulk of buyers and sellers keep doing just this. 7 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 Moreover, a buyer’s aim at the exchange is not actual needs satisfaction but the same as that of a seller – current or future profit maximization. In this case, a commodity price largelyreflects not a relative estimation of actual utility of various goods for most customers but subjective traders’ expectations of trading results. In the other case,bargains originate from the result of interest collision of the largest banks and companies – exchange traders, who represent a negligibly lowpart of the interested parties directly or indirectly connected with export-import transactions. As soon as a negligibly low part of exchange traders (even in comparison to all the country’s exporters and importers) evaluate relative value of currencies, the evaluation result becomes a law for all participants of international trade relations. Thus, the essence of a commodity price formed at the real and currency market is different in principle. Consequently, an objective change of relative PPP of national currencies fixed at a real market according to PPP value may differ substantially from excessively subjective evaluation of PPP at the currency trading. Thus, one can get the closest to real correlation of PPP of different currencies while using relative values of PPP of currencies and efficient methods of inflation and deflation meanings evaluation. The matter deals with the creation of an artificial benchmark of value or money purchasing power. 4. Methodology Verification The problem of making up a benchmark of currencies purchasing power is a problem of saving purchasing power in time. While making all familiar benchmarks there is not such a problem as either some constant value (for example, a real kilogram of mass) or a value measured instrumentally in the same way (meter, current load, and permittivity) underlie them. The possibility of making a constant in time national benchmark of purchasing power is justified by the fact that in all developed countries, there is a system of assessmentof currency purchasing power digression from some uncertain in magnitude but fixed level – it is a measure of inflation and deflation [18,19]. The very fact of measuring purchasing power digression means that there is a principal possibility of measuring purchasing power of any national currency in any existing period in its purchasing power units taken for a benchmark. Let us illustrate the accuracy of such assertion. For the convenience of the narration, we have called this benchmark, a unit of fixed purchasing power of national currency, realis (Late Latin “realis” for actual). The schemes of the procedures used while measuring length and currency purchasing power by means of a benchmark are shown in Fig.2. Both the schemes look identical. However, the result or the aim of measuring differ substantially. In the first case, the aim of measuring is to express the size of the object with a benchmark’s value and; in the second case;the aim is to express the size of a benchmark withan object’s amount value. 8 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 National system of measure of length 1 m (meter) standard 0,6 m ∆m length National system of measure of value 1 R (realic) standard (benchmark) 0,6R ∆R 1 Ruble Fig. 2 The comparison of measure principles while using a standard of length and standard (benchmark) of purchasing power of national currency Actually, in the first case, (length measure) it is important to fix a standard of length (unit), a meter, then to measure an object. It means a numerical value of the amount of the measured object needs working out in the values of measure unit (benchmark), i.e. a meter. For example, let us assume some measured length equals 0.6 cm. It means that this length equals 0.6 of the benchmark’s amount or 0.6 meter. Correspondingly, the length of the benchmark is 1:0.6=1.667 times more than that of the measured object. In the second case, originally, a numerical value of purchasing power is also taken for a unit but it is possible to fix or restore it only in units of habitual money, the purchasing power of which is generally different and each time it shapes at the market. For example, let us assume that on 1 Jan. 2016 purchasing power of an acting Ruble is taken for a unit. Until there is inflation or deflation, the purchasing power of any Ruble is equal to one or to purchasing power of a benchmark. However, as soon as something, e.g. inflation, fixes, the situation changes. If inflation is 40%, that means that purchasing power 9 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 of any acting Ruble is 0.6 of a benchmark. In this case, the value of the purchasing power of a benchmark in acting Rubles is 1: 0.6 = 1.667 Rubles. In other words, the possibilityof checking the price growth against the fixed but unknown value means the opportunity to fix the purchasing power quantity of this value as a benchmark forever.In order to do this it is enough to work out (express) its value in acting purchasing power of national currency. This also means that it is possible to define what amount of monetary units with current purchasing power corresponds to some constant benchmarking value. It is just what is happening when usual benchmarks are used. Actually, the above argument of the accuracy of the theoretically forecast phenomenon of purchasing power benchmark existence is very simple. This allows any intelligent person to observe and point at an error in the argument. Otherwise, it is worth considering that the logic of the drawn conclusions reflects the cause-and-effect relations characterizing monetary systems development processes. 5. Evaluation If to consider the regularity of emergence and change of money types and monetary systems classes, it is possible to predict the features of the coming stage of their development. The practical need for efficient transformation of monetary systems has ripened. The current instability of most countries’ economies manifests this, so do the crisis shaking periodically the whole world’seconomy [19, 20]. The main function of a benchmark currency is a means of saving. External factors, as well as miscalculations or government’s behavior led by personal or clang’s interests,end in the loss of purchasing power of the whole mass of the national currency. It badly influences the living standards of most population; but it bears most heavily on the poor. Moreover, the national currency instability has a serious impact on the economic efficiency as it makes it decrease [21, 17]. At the same time, it is obvious that the chances of the monetary system are restricted in principle when the same currency exercises four opposing one another functions at a time. The transfer to the use of two currencies in the national monetary system– operating and benchmarking – changes the situation dramatically. The logic of the development of monetary money systems allows asserting that in a new situation habitual currency must be used like at present. A benchmarking currency must exercise the function of saving and indirectly the function of non-cash operations. The national benchmark currency is supposed to operate in the following mode. 1. The benchmark currency is converted into operating currency at the current rate of exchange that secures the continuity of its purchasing power. 2. The benchmark currency is non-cash only. 3. The benchmark currency cannot be used as a direct means of payment. As a means of payment it has the status corresponding to foreign currency but much tougher because all its transactions are fixed and connected with definite legal entities and physical parties. 4. The benchmark currency circulates exclusively within the state. Actually, within the state it exercises the main functions of gold without having its faults. Its amount does not depend upon the natural resources of the country, it cannot be stolen, its price does not depend upon either demand or supply; or population’s reflection; or selfish interests of the main players at the stock exchange. Neither the technological resources of the country nor its gold reserve restricts the need satisfaction for such a currency. Thus, the 10 Proceedings of Annual Paris Economics, Finance and Business Conference 7 - 8 April 2016, Espace Vocation Haussmann, Paris, France ISBN: 978-1-925488-04-3 benchmark currency becomes a factor securing the stability of the country’s monetary system. However, the importance of making a national benchmark currency matters far beyond the boundaries of the states because it enables the emergence of a supranational currency. A currency is necessary to upgrade the international currency system. The critical weaknesses of the latter including an obvious capability gap, which the system provides its various participants with, have become so evident that the participants of international exchange [6] like companies, countries and academic community claim the inefficiency of the international trade practice [22,23]. There is no doubt that in future the transformation of the international currency system will take off. Instead of rates of exchange, it will use the relationship of purchasing power of national currenciesobtained through the system of international benchmarking of national money purchasing power. Just to be clear, the evolution of the international currency system will go on gradually as the economically strongest countries will hinder it. Eventually, the international exchange will be made by means of real world money of A1B2 type. For the purposes of international trade it is necessary to know the quantitate value of national currency purchasing power of the countries taking part in trade transactions or at least to know currencies’ purchasing power relationship. Herewith, in any case, in order to denote absolute or relative value of currency purchasing power it is necessary to use a unit of its measure or a constant benchmark. 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