ERODING MINIMUM INCOME PROTECTION IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES? REASSESSING THE TYPICAL CHARACTER OF NORDIC SOCIAL ASSISTANCE Forthcoming in Fritzell, J., Hvinden B., Kangas, O., Kvist, J (eds.) ”Changing Equality: The Nordic Welfare Model in the 21st Century”, Policy Press. Kenneth Nelson Institute for Social Research Stockholm University Kennethn@sofi.su.se The purpose of this study is to analyze Nordic social assistance and minimum income benefits from the early 1990s up to the end of 2010 in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. *** Is Nordic social assistance moving in the direction we would expect from the recognition of an encompassing or universalist Nordic model? To what extent does Nordic social assistance prevent and alleviate poverty? Have institutional and other changes in Nordic social assistance promoted convergence with other advanced welfare states? Social assistance in the Nordic countries is often characterized as a marginal but effective program, providing fairly generous benefits for a small proportion of the population. (e.g. Lødemel and Schulte 1992; Leibfried 1993; Eardley et al. 1996; Gough et al. 1997; Lødemel 1997; Gough 2001) Five indicators covering institutional characteristics and outcomes • • • • • Benefit Levels Benefit Adequacy Means-Tested Benefit Expenditure Poverty among social assistance recipients Anti-poverty effects of social assistance Method Descriptive analysis covering both levels and changes The Social Assistance and Minimum Income Protection Interim Dataset (SaMip) ● ● ● ● ● 34 countries 1990-2009 Institutional variables on benefit levels Based on type-cases Gender dimension Information about child benefits, housing benefits, and negative income taxes. Table 1. Minimum Income Protection Benefit Levels, Adequacy Rates, and Means-Tested Benefit Expenditure as percentage of Total Social Benefit Expenditurein in Different Countries 1990 and 2009. Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Average Nordic Countries Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Avarage 20 countries 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 Benefit Levels (PPPs) 11510 20329 11299 18747 9729 23568 11331 17090 10967 19933 9844 18472 9609 17238 8262 17503 9393 16724 Adequacy Rates 56.4 48.5 56.2 48.4 44.0 46.7 61.5 44.0 54.5 46.9 49.5 52.0 54.8 43.4 42.8 38.8 50.4 42.8 Expenditure 4.3 5.1 7.2 5.6 7.2 6.8 2.9 1.9 5.4 4.8 5.5 9.0 10.2 8.6 12.7 10.2 10.3 8.5 Note: The larger group of countries for which average values are calculaded includes for means-tested benefit expenditure 18 countries (see note to figures 3a-b), for adequacy 13 countries (see note to figures 2a-b). Adequacy is shown for the years 1990 and 2008, wheras means-tested benefit expenditure is shown for the years 1990 and 2007. Source: SaMip. Table 1. Minimum Income Protection Benefit Levels, Adequacy Rates, and Means-Tested Benefit Expenditure as percentage of Total Social Benefit Expenditurein in Different Countries 1990 and 2009. Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Average Nordic Countries Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Avarage 20 countries 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 Benefit Levels (PPPs) 11510 20329 11299 18747 9729 23568 11331 17090 10967 19933 9844 18472 9609 17238 8262 17503 9393 16724 Adequacy Rates 56.4 48.5 56.2 48.4 44.0 46.7 61.5 44.0 54.5 46.9 49.5 52.0 54.8 43.4 42.8 38.8 50.4 42.8 Expenditure 4.3 5.1 7.2 5.6 7.2 6.8 2.9 1.9 5.4 4.8 5.5 9.0 10.2 8.6 12.7 10.2 10.3 8.5 Note: The larger group of countries for which average values are calculaded includes for means-tested benefit expenditure 18 countries (see note to figures 3a-b), for adequacy 13 countries (see note to figures 2a-b). Adequacy is shown for the years 1990 and 2008, wheras means-tested benefit expenditure is shown for the years 1990 and 2007. Source: SaMip. Table 2. Poverty and Poverty Alleviation of Means-Tested Benefits, Around 1990 and 2005. Denmark 1992 2004 Finland 1991 2004 Norway 1991 2004 Sweden 1992 2005 Average Nordic Countries Around 1990 Around 2005 Germany 1989 2004 Netherlands 1991 1999 United Kingdom 1991 2004 Avarage 15 countries Around 1990 Around 2000 Source: Luxembourg Income Study. Poverty 28.4 34.5 17.3 34.2 17.3 42.7 19.7 36.3 20.7 36.9 36.4 47.0 22.7 32.8 56.2 26.7 29.9 37.7 Poverty Alleviation 41.9 45.1 35.4 32.4 32.4 27.3 53.0 41.0 40.7 36.4 22.1 28.2 33.2 30.9 19.7 38.5 30.2 31.3 Table 2. Poverty and Poverty Alleviation of Means-Tested Benefits, Around 1990 and 2005. Denmark 1992 2004 Finland 1991 2004 Norway 1991 2004 Sweden 1992 2005 Average Nordic Countries Around 1990 Around 2005 Germany 1989 2004 Netherlands 1991 1999 United Kingdom 1991 2004 Avarage 15 countries Around 1990 Around 2000 Source: Luxembourg Income Study. Poverty 28.4 34.5 17.3 34.2 17.3 42.7 19.7 36.3 20.7 36.9 36.4 47.0 22.7 32.8 56.2 26.7 29.9 37.7 Poverty Alleviation 41.9 45.1 35.4 32.4 32.4 27.3 53.0 41.0 40.7 36.4 22.1 28.2 33.2 30.9 19.7 38.5 30.2 31.3 Conclusions Nordic social assistance is still marginal, generous, and effective for poverty alleviation compared to international standards. However, these peculiarities of Nordic social assistance seem to be less distinct nowadays then about two decades ago. To this extent there seems to be some convergence going on. Nordic social assistance has become less generous and effective for poverty alleviation, particularly developments in Sweden and Finland are worrying.