Joint ITU-T/IEEE Workshop
on The Future of Ethernet Transport
Economics of the Next Data Rate
Chris Cole
28 May 2010
Geneva
Outline
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Next Ethernet Data Rate Requirements
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100GE Transceivers
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400GE Transceivers
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1TE Transceivers
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Summary
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Technology Product Life Cycle
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Advanced (ex. 100GE in near term)
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Major R&D investment
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Moderate volume high end market
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10x rate Δ @ >30x cost Δ
Parity (ex: 40GE in near term)
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Moderate R&D investment
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Medium volume multiple markets
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10x rate Δ @ 10x cost Δ
Mature (ex: 10GE in near term)
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Incremental R&D investment
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High volume mass market
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10x rate Δ @ <4x cost Δ
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Next Data Rate Requirements
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Requirements from multiple developers
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Leverage major R&D investment
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Leverage ramping product volumes
Requirements from multiple end users
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Scale unit cost linearly with data rate
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Provide meaningful data rate increase
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Next Ethernet Date Rate products should be
introduced in the Parity stage of their underlying
technology life cycle
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Next Ethernet Date Rate products should be based
on 100GE technology to control R&D and unit costs
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100GE Transceiver Road Map
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100GE Gen2 WDM Transceiver
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100GE Gen2 MPO Transceiver
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400GE WDM Transceiver
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400GE WDM Transceiver Specs
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ITU G.694.1 DWDM grid
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800GHz LAN WDM
spacing and 1310nm band
(same as 100GE)
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SOA closes the higher
400Gb/s (vs. 100Gb/s)
10km link budget due to:
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higher fiber loss and
dispersion penalty
70nm span (vs. 15nm)
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higher Mux and DeMux
loss 16:1 (vs. 4:1)
400GE-ER16 transceiver
can support max reach of
~20km (vs.40km)
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400GE MPO Transceiver
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1TE Transceivers
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100GE Technology based Architecture
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40x25G (WDM or MPO)
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Not practical
1TE technology will require non-NRZ electrical I/O
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Ex. multi-level amplitude modulation
1TE technology will require non-NRZ optical I/O
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Ex. 1: multi-level amplitude modulation
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Ex. 2: phase modulation
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Ex. 3: optical polarity multiplexing
Such technology will not exist for the Ethernet market
in the near term and will require major R&D investment
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Does 1TE Justify Major R&D?
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High end data center operator unit interface cost
requirement (Google presentations):
10x Δrate → <4x Δcost (mature technology)
Resulting 1TE transceiver unit cost:
≈ 4x 100GE cost ≈ 4x (4x 10GE cost)
= 16x 10GE-LR SFP+ cost
Total potential 1TE port total (Facebook presentations)
■ 1TE link total per high end data center:
~100
■ High end data center number:
~200
Total potential 1TE market port cost:
~300,000x 10GE-LR SFP+ cost (tiny ROI!)
1TE does not justify major R&D investment at this time
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Summary
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Next Data Rate should be driven by cost
requirements
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Next Data Rate should be based on 100GE
technology
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400GE Transceivers can be based on 100GE
technology
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1TE Transceivers can not be based on 100GE
technology
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1TE does not justify major R&D investment at this
time
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The Next Ethernet Data Rate should be 400Gb/s
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