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Climate change, vulnerability and adapta5on Hazards and challenges for SIDS Why work at the city level? Exis5ng assessment tools Aim and objec5ves Methodology Case studies Construc5ng the CCUVI Next steps What is the deal with climate change? •  Transforma5on in our planet’s climate paLerns at a faster rate –  Human ac5vi5es are playing an important role in these transforma5ons. IPCC, 2007. •  Transforma5ons with profound implica5ons •  Different changes, different effects Where on the World is…? Vulnerability and Adapta:on (IPCC, 2007) •  Vulnerability: “… the degree in which a system is suscep5ble to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.” •  Adapta5on: “Ini5a5ves and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects.” Vulnerability and Adapta:on (cont.) •  Small Island Developing Na5ons (SIDS) have been iden5fied as more vulnerable to the nega5ve effects of climate change. •  Most SIDS are not big GHG emiLers, yet are facing some of the most disastrous consequences. •  Geographical, poli5cal social, and economic characteris5cs contribute to their vulnerability •  Adapta5on measures are more strongly needed than mi5ga5on,. Challenges for small island na:ons in the face of climate change (UNEP, 2008) •
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High dependence on imports High reliance on fragile ecosystems Limited land and freshwater resources Lack of economies of scale Special vulnerability to sea-­‐level rise and natural disasters Why work with Caribbean island ci:es? •  Capital ci5es are o_en the main social, economic, and cultural centres of their island na5ons. •  There is a need to develop further analysis focusing on the role of ci5es and their vulnerability to the expected impacts. •  Ci5es on Caribbean islands can benefit form assessment tools against climate change impacts, in order to formulate sound adapta5on measures. Exis5ng assessment tools • GRaBS Adapta:on Planning Toolkit • Environmental Vulnerability Index Aim •  Analyze the climate change vulnerabili5es in Caribbean island’s capital ci5es and provide poten5al adapta5on measures Objec:ves 1.  Determine climate impacts in Caribbean Island and its capital ci5es and how comparable governments are dealing with similar issues 2.  Create a Climate Change Urban Vulnerability Index (CCUVI) to help establish varia5ons in vulnerability to climate change impacts. Objec:ves (cont) 3.  Use the CCUVI to iden5fy areas most affected by climate change impacts and develop a series of adapta5on measures for the different affected areas 4.  Develop a series of norma5ve and opera5onal recommenda5ons to direct efforts, resources, and capabili5es effec5vely Methodology •  Background Analysis •  Vulnerability Index Crea5on •  Assessment •  Analysis Case studies: •  San Juan, Puerto Rico •  St. George’s, Grenada Phase 1: Background Analysis •  San Juan, Puerto Rico –  Founded: 1508 –  Area: 127.98 sq. km –  Popula5on: 434, 374 hab. –  Avg. temp: 25.6 C –  Avg. rainfall: 1,289.3mm Phase 1: Background Analysis (cont.) •  St. George’s, Grenada –  Founded: 1650 –  Area: 66.18 sq. km. –  Popula5on: 3,629 hab. (2001) –  Average temp.: 27.5 C –  Average rainfall: 1,138.2 mm Associated climate hazards for Caribbean islands and its ci:es The Caribbean has been a region vulnerable to the effects of many climate hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these events Phase 2: Crea:ng the CCUVI •  Looking at elements of vulnerability –  Exposure, Sensi5vity, Adap5ve Capacity •  Looking at dimensions of the city –  Socio-­‐demographic, natural environment, built environment •  Data availability and per5nence, produced mainly by respec5ve local or na5onal governments Phase 2: Crea:ng the CCUVI (cont) Climate Change Urban Vulnerability Index (CCUVI) Components
Indicator
#
Justification
1
vulnerable population
Population that are more needed of asssistance and care during climate hazards
2
steep slopes
Areas prone to be affected by landslides and\or high winds
3
flood zones
Areas prone to be affected by flooding events
4
average mean temp. changes
5
building density
6
poverty levels
7
average rainfall variablity
8
population density
9
Average income
Families that have more economic means to adapt towards the expected impacts
10
education levels
Population that have less education levels are in need of more assistance for
adaptation measures
11
green spaces
12
shelters
13
hospital occupancy
14
road density
Areas that are presenting variability in mean air temperature
Concentration of structures, communities and more urbanized areas
Population group that are more susceptible to the effects of climate impacts
Areas that are expected to be more sensitive to rainfall variability
Concentration of population around the city will be priority areas for adaptative
measures
Green & Blue spaces provide benefits for climate adaptation
Check the availability and location of shelters during climate hazard events
Check the capacity of the city to attend population with health issues during
emergencies in climate impacts
Show the variation in connectivity of the city, particularly important for mobilizing
people, goods and assistance.
Next Steps •  Assessment and results •  Analysis and adapta5on measures •  Norma5ve and opera5onal recommenda5ons Thanks for your 5me!