23rd Ph.D. Workshop on International Climate Policy 20 - 21 October 2011 MALTA Energy Planning as an Instrument of Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Policy Measures on Climate Change Mitigation Irina Voitekhovitch PhD, Joint Institute of Nuclear and Power Research ‘Sosny’, Minsk, Belarus Research Target Setting Climate Change Mitigation Ratification of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol New (stricter!) commitments for Kyoto-2 Adaptation and mitigation targets Country strategy on GHG emission reduction Commitments on GHG reduction -8% for 2008-2012 as against 1990 Belarus – country with economy in transition Stable annual GDP growth 8-10% Replacement of gas (roughly 85% of energy balance) by peat, coal, mazut, nuclear Increasing electricity consumption Energy Security Economic growth Research aims to 1. investigate the existing energy models to analyze energy systems 2. develop a model of the fuel and energy complex of Belarus to 3. forecast greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and long term prospective (assess the environmental effects of any energy and climate strategy) 4. analyse the establishment of regional emission trading system to increase contribution in preventing climate change. Models for analysis of energy systems EFDA‐T IMES AMIGA E2M2s MAED EERA EFOM MESSAGE LIEF ENUSIM NEMS ENPEP MESAP GTMax ICARUS NEMS LEAP RETScreen TIMES MARKAL MACRO WASP Energy PLAN ENPEP BALANCE Description: BALANCE gives the possibility to find the balance between demand on different forms of energy and available energy resources and technologies Advantages: price sensitivity, lag factor, premium multiplier, carbon tax modeling, CHP modeling, several types of fuel Special features: very user unfriendly Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) INDUSTRY TRANSPORT AGRICULTURE RESIDENTIAL Structure of energy resources consumption, mln tce 120% 100% Energy sector - conversion 80% 60% Exist 40% 20% OIL PROD 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Natural Gas Oil-well gas LPG Refinery gas Communal fuel Mazut Coal Peat, lignin Firewood Other Petroleum coke Wind NG A Peat FEC characteristics Structure of electricity production - key GHG emitter – 64,4% (2008) - gas-coal, peat, mazut - accelerated pace of growth 80% 100.000% 60% 99.950% FEC sub-sectors: 99.900% - 40% 20% 99.850% 0% Combined Heat and Power Stations Boiler-houses Heat Recovery Stations Hydro Mazut Structure of heat energy production 100% Coal Nuclear 2010 99.800% Heat Power Station Hydro Wind fuel refinery energy sector communal and houses sector agriculture transport industry ENERGY SECTOR Total current capacity of energy system – ca. 8000 MW 1. Condensing PP – 4000 MW ( Lukoml - 2400 MW, Bereza - 1060 MW, Minsk-5 - 330 MW) 2. Combined CHP - 3935 MW– Big (3555 MW), Middle (350 MW), Mini (16 MW), Block-Stations (185 MW), Wind (2 MW), Hydro (12 MW) AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT RESIDENTIAL HEAТ Wind 3. Coal PS NuPS Boilers Boilers Hydro CHP CHP CPP Imported electricity Coal Boilers: 1. MinEnergy – 8500 MW 2. Big Boilers – 28 000 MW 3. Small Boilers gas – 6400 MW 4. Small Boilers peat – 3000 MW Future - ????? NG Mazut Wood&Peat Nuclear Considered scenarios Scenario 1 – Construction of nuclear power plant (NPP Scenario) 1 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2018 2 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2019 Scenario 2 – Construction of combined cycle plants (SGP Scenario) NPP will not be built 2000 MW gas fired SGP to be put into operation by 2030 Scenario 3 – Intensive use of renewable energy sources (RES Scenario) NPP will not be built 1600 MW of SGP will be put into operation by 2030 1000 MW wind power park construction by 2025 500 MW Hydro PP construction by 2025 General assumptions Coal Power Plant 920 MW - operational in 2015 Minsk CPP-5 (320 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2011 Lukoml (2400 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2014 Bereza (1030 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2015 Wind Power Plants 50 MW - by 2015 Hydro Power Plants 100 MW – by 2015 Electricity consumption growth - 42,5 bln. kWh in 2015; 47,1 bln. kWh in 2020 and with continuation of current growth rate by 2030 (roughly 2% per year) Structure of electricity consumption will not be changed Renunciation of imported electricity starts from 2015 Prognosis of GHG emissions in FEC 120 mln tCO2eq 100 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 NPP 2010 SGP 2015 2020 RES 2025 2030 2035 Prognosis of GHG emissions in Belarus 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 NPP 2010 SGP 2015 RES 2020 2025 2030 2035 Enhancing Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions • Using financial mechanisms for GHG emission reduction trading scheme: – – – – regional Belarus - Law on Climate Protection Ukraine – 2010 draft law "On regulation of emissions of greenhouse gases’ that establishes a market-based methods to reduce GHG emissions in the internal trading system Russia – pilot ‘technological platform’ Kazakhstan - intends to conclude bilateral agreements with other countries and international organizations (e.g. Chicago Climate Exchange) Best solution - voluntary trading scheme starting 2013, which contains sufficient financial and nonfinancial incentives for the companies to participate. For CIS conditions it would be wise to prepare and run the emission trading system in the pilot regions and / or sectors. These pilot initiatives should be considered as a polygon for testing approaches and training of professionals all over the country Future climate treaty regional schemes Directions of further research • Implementation of carbon tax and reaction of energy system • Most efficient actions on GHG reduction • Low carbon strategy including different measures in supply, conversion and demand side technologies • Regional ET scheme – price of CO2 reduced Thank you for your attention!!!