Photovoltaics in Germany –
Market Development and
Perspectives
Matthias Reitzenstein
German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar)
German Solar Industry Association
2
TASK To represent the German solar industry in the
solar
thermal and photovoltaic sector
VISION A global sustainable energy supply provided by
solar (renewable) energy
ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market
observation, standardization
EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector since more than
25 years
MEMBERS More than 850 solar producers, suppliers,
wholesalers, installers and other companies
active in the solar business
HEADQUARTERS Berlin
02/12/2010
© BSW-Solar
More investments in PV by families
compared to the big four utilities (in DE)
Investments of the
big four utilities in
power plants
Private Investments of
families in solar PV and
solar thermal systems
3
02/12/2010
© BSW-Solar
Global PV Market 2010
4
Global PV Market
2008:
6.000 MWp
2009:
7.400 MWp
2010:
15.300
MWp
Europe
North Amerika
Asia / ROW
Estimates!
Source: nat. PV Industry
associations, BSW-Solar
estimates
Update: 02/2011
© BSW-Solar
Development of the German PV market
5
18000
Market Data Photovoltaics in Germany 2010*
Newly installed power
Total installed power
Solar electricity produced
No. of new systems installed
Employees
7,000 MWp
16,800 MWp
12,000 GWh
240,000
130,000
16000
7.000
14000
12000
(Source: BSW-Solar)
* Preliminary figures
10000
Milestones
8000
3806
1991: First Feed-in Law (FIT with low tariffs)
1991-1995: 1,000 roofs program (grants)
1999-2003: 100,000 roofs program (loans)
2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) (FIT)
2004 & 2009: Amendment (revision) of EEG (FIT)
20010: Amendment (revision) of EEG (FIT)
6000
4000
1809
1271
3
3
3
3
4
7
12
10
12
42
78
118
139
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
951
843
2005
2006
670
2000
0
2004
2007
annually installed
2008
2009
2010*
cumulated installed
© BSW-Solar
FIT in Germany: Basic principles
6
Regulation / Law
• Priority connection for
all PV systems granted
• Each solar kWh must be
purchased by the utility
Money
Power
Government
Provides for grid
access, sets FIT
Utility
• Fixed feed-in tariff
payment over 20 years
• Reduction of the feed-in
tariff each year by
approximately 9% for
newly installed PV
systems (Degression)
• Feed-in tariffs are no
state subsidy, costs are
redistributed to the rate
conventional
electricity
Feed-in tariff
renewable
electricity
Electricity
rates
+ FIT surcharge
RES-E
Producer
Electricity
consumer
02/12/2010
© BSW-Solar
Grid-connected PV in Germany
7
Each kWh of solar electricity produced is fed into the grid,
sold to the utility and paid at a fixed price
Typical data
of a small PV system as fo Oct. 2009 (per
kWp)
Investment costs:
Annual production of
solar electricity:
Feed-in tariff:
€ 2900
900 kWh/a
€ct 33.03/kWh
guaranteed for 20 years
Feed-in payment:
Interest rates (KfW):
€ 297/a
2-4%/a eff
Market segments of on-grid PV systems
8
Effort of mounting
BIPV
Image: Sharp
<1%
Image: Schüco
Image: Grammer
residential homes 1-10 kWp
Rooftop
Preliminary Figures which may still be
subject to change
Source: Statistics of the Federal
Network Agency, BSW-Solar Estimates
18%
multi family houses, public + social
buildings, farms, commercial plants
10-100 kWp
Large and very large
commercial > 100 kWp
6%
59%
Image: Solarwatt
Groundmounted
Image: Solarwatt
Market share
in 2009
Size of the system
Image: BP
17%
Image:
Geosol
12/03/2010
© BSW-Solar
Image: Geosol
PV feed-in tariffs in 2011
Feed-in tariff
Rooftop systems
(on buildings
and on noise protection
walls)
Ground mounted
systems
9
< 30 kWp
> 30 kWp
> 100 kWp
> 1000
kWp
€ 28,74 ct
€ 27,33 ct
€ 25,86 ct
€ 21,56 ct
Commercial areas / along
roads / constructions
€ 21,11 ct
Conversion /
rehablitation areas /
€ 22,07 ct
Direct consumption strengthened
•
Option can be chosen
by PV system operator
•
Direct consumption
requires additional meter
to be installed
•
PV system does not
longer feed all power to
the grid
•
kWh produced and
consumed is in addition
remunerated
•
Aims to reduce overall
FIT payments
significantly
10
02/12/2010
© BSW-Solar
New rules for direct consumption
•
11
Strengthening direct-consumption of PV electricity:
– Direct consumption was introduced in 2009 already
– The economic advantage will increase from 3.9 cent to 8 cent, if more than
30% of the produced energy is self-consumed
– Up to 30% the advantage remains at 3.6 cent
– Max. system size 500 kWp (before 30 kWp)
– Temporary provision until 31.12.2011
as of 01.01.2011
Direct consumption calculation for PV
system <30kWp
Share of direct consumption
<= 30 %
> 30 %
Remuneration direct consumption (net):
12.64 Ct/kWh
16.74 Ct/kWh
Retail electricity savings (gross):
20.00 Ct/kWh
20.00 Ct/kWh
Sum
=32.64 Ct/kWh
=36.74 Ct/kWh
FIT remuneration (net):
28.74 Ct/kWh
28.74 Ct/kWh
Incentive (compared to FIT)
3.90 Ct/kWh
8.00 Ct/kWh
02/12/2010
© BSW-Solar
PV system prices decrease steadily
12
Overall price reduction by 43.3% since Q2/2006
Average annual reduction of 12.4% p.a.
Q3/10: Average PV system price for systems < 100 kWp: 2,834 €/kWp
Source: BSW-Solar Price Index
02/12/2010
© BSW-Solar
- Graphics and tables (source: BMU)
The original is in German.
http://www.bmu.de/erneuerbare_energien/downloads/doc/42038.ph
p
25
- Graphics and tables (source: BMU)
The original is in German.
http://www.bmu.de/erneuerbare_energien/downloads/doc/42038.ph
p
26
- Graphics and tables (source: BMU)
The original is in German.
http://www.bmu.de/erneuerbare_energien/downloads/doc/42038.ph
p
27
Conclusions
28
Germany has built up the largest PV market of the world
Germany has choosen the feed-in-tariff (FIT) to promote it‘s
market growth, but other support schemes are possible
German companies and R&D institutes have developped a
wide scale of technologies and applications
The FIT has proved to be extremely successfull to trigger
price decrease and technological development in Germany
but market size has grown beyond long term capacity
Consumer Grid Parity will be reached in many markets
between 2011 and 2014
New markets have to emerge to allow additional market
growth
New products and applications have to be developped
German companies and research institutes are co-operate to
develop products for new markets
02/12/2010
© BSW-Solar
29
Future:
Don´t be afraid of the future,
it won´t start before tomorrow.
Zarko Petan (*1944) slow. aphorist
Thank you for your attention…
Matthias Reitzenstein
Energieforum
Stralauer Platz 34
D-10243 Berlin
Tel: +49 30 29 777 880
Internet: www.solarwirtschaft.de
German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar)