IV. The CONSEQUENCES Cycle
/
.
Purpose
The CONSEQUENCES Cycle looks at the effects or impacts of the action
alternatives on selected measures. When completing the CONSEQUENCES
Cycle, keep the following goals in mind:
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Process
Describe and quantify the expected consequences of the alternatives
Characterize the validity, reliability, and uncertainty of the consequence predictions.
As you complete the CONSEQUENCES Cycle, you should perform the following tasks:
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?
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Agree on measures for each attribute of the objectives or
side effects
Describe important cause-effect relationships between activities and
measures
Evaluate the information with which you will predict the
consequences
Describe uncertainties that could influence the actual
consequences
Information and Uncertainty Evaluation
9
Measures and Limits Analysis
0
Cause/Effect Analysis
-9
Consequence Prediction
/
Alternative Refinement * ’
(Desf gn Cycle)
FKgure
6.7he
/
\
\
’ * Choice Rationale
(Action Cycle)
CONSEQUENCES Cycle of the Decision Protocol, Version 2.0.
55
Describe and evaluate information that would improve your
predictions
Set acceptable levels on measures
Predict consequences for each alternative
Describe the reasoning behind your predictions
Identify consequences that are not acceptable or otherwise
significant
Return to the DESIGN Cycle and refine alternatives.
Products
You should prepare the following products:
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Initial Assessment
Questions
A description, by resource attribute or measure, of the information
base, major elements of uncertainty, prediction comfort levels, and
new information to be collected
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A cause-effect description of the cumulative influences
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A matrix of expected consequence for each alternative.
Put a check beside each true statement below about any analysis of
consequences that you have already begun. For each statement unchecked, work through the Core Question suggested or describe what
should be done to bring this part of the consequences analysis “up to
grade.” If you check fewer than half of the questions, work completely
through the CONSEQUENCES Cycle Core Questions.
- The analysis adequately integrates published scientiiic information
with knowledge of professional resources managers and specialists. If
this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions
l-3.
- The analysis process interprets and uses experiences from similar
projects. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core
Questions 13.
New information that might influence the predictions of consequences
- is clearly described. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Question 5.
- The analysis confronts and explains sources of uncertainty. It clearly
describes what is not known and the implications of this lack of
knowledge. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core
Questions 34.
- Analysis team members are candid about their biases and their limitations in consequence prediction. If this statement is not true, go to
CONSEQUENCES Core Question 9.
56
- The dollars spent on information collection and analysis are emciently
allocated. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core
Question 5.
- The consequences are defined in measures that reliably indicate
change in the situation. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Question 6.
- Public and stakeholder issues and concerns about consequences are
addressed in the analysis. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 6-7.
- The analysis fully considers the needs of special environmental, human, or other values. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Question 6.
- Levels of acceptability for potential consequences are clear and defensible. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Question 7.
- The analysis considers the cumulative interactions with activities and
consequences at larger and smaller geographic scales. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 4 and 8.
- The analysis anticipates the influence of large-scale disturbances and
natural events. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 4.
- The analysis anticipates the influence of uncertain events of social,
political, managerial, and economic origin. If this statement is not
true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Question 4.
- The analysis clearly distinguishes between facts and values that influence the consequence predictions. If this statement is not true, go to
CONSEQUENCES Core Questions l-5 and 8.
- The range of consequences analyzed is thorough. If this statement is
not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 13, 6, and 8.
- The consequences of taking no action are clearly described. If this
statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 8-9.
- The predictions of consequences are consistent with the facts and
information documented in the analysis. If this statement is not true,
go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions l-5,8, and 9.
- The reasons for not conducting detailed reviews of some alternatives
are clearly explained. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 10-l 1.
- Predictions and judgments about acceptable consequences are documented so that future managers can learn from them. If this statement is not true, go to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 6-9.
57
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CONSEQUENCES
Core Questions
Information and
Uncertainty
Evaluation
(Note: Record CONSEQUENCES Core Questions l-5 in CONSEQUENCES
Summary Table 1 aBer CONSEQUENCES Core Queshon 5.)
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 1
What iuformation is available to help characterize and predict
consequences?
For each measure for which you predict consequences, describe the information and data that are available. Consider the following sources:
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?
?
Dotobose~eographic
information systems, monitoring programs,
or cooperative studies with researchers or other agencies.
Scienti$c literature-Computerized
literature searches, journals and
government publications, ongoing research at agencies and universities, and other sources. Include material that presents opposing
theories and scientific disagreement. These diverse opinions may be
important in informing and refining the final decision.
Expertjudgment-In
experts,
consider
the
following:
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The basis of their expertise-applied research, basic research.
managerial consulting, and other
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How well-regarded they are and by whom
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How relevant their subject matter is to the attributes and the
cause-effect relationships
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How experienced they are in the kinds of systems or decisions
that will be made.
_ ,_
?
identifying
Similar projects-Locate
projects or programs that have activities
similar to those in your alternatives. In choosing projects, consider
the following:
-
Whether the consequences of these projects were what you
suspect might happen in your case
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The greatest similarities to your problem
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The major differences between these projects and yours
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What activities of these projects have been the most difficult or
expensive to evaluate
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What predictions have been the most accurate and the least
accurate.
58
?
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 2
Public Perspectives--In selecting material from these sources, consider the following:
-
what evidence, theories, or expert judgments the public can
provide
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The credibility and objectivity of the sources.
How certain (confident) are you that this information is a good basis
for accurately predicting consequences?
Rate each measure (0 = none to 10 = highest) to indicate your confidence
level (degree of certainty) in the ability of the information to predict the
measure at the chosen time and geographic scale. Do not confuse your
ability to predict with your ability to measure, monitor, or control. Be specific about whether your rating refers to the direction of change or the end
value. You may need to work through CONSEQUENCES Core Question 6
(below) to develop a full set of measures that will cover the objectives and
side effects.
In making your ratings, consider the following:
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The reliability and validity of the information sources
How clearly the measure has been specified
* The natural variability of the measure
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Your personal experience with the measure
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Your biases in making such predictions.
Record your confidence ratings (O-10) in CONSEQUENCES Summary
Table 1 (after CONSEQUENCES Core Question 5).
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 3
What are important gaps in knowledge for predicting consequences?
Describe the kinds of knowledge or expertise that would be required to increase your confidence to an acceptable level.
Consider improvements in the following:
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Ability to measure the attributes
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Ability to extrapolate data in time and space
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Availability of baseline data
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Adequacy of models or experts to explain relationships and
variability
Consensus among specialists about cause-effects relationships.
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For each measure, list the knowledge gaps in CONSEQUENCES Summary
Table 1 (after CONSEQUENCES Core Question 5).
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 4
What uncertain events could confound your predictions?
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Describe possible events or conditions that could cause consequences to
differ from your predictions, such as the following:
_’
._
Natural disturbances~(fire,‘windstorms,
outbreaks, earthquakes, and others).
0
.
Scientific
.
Political events
.
Economic
.
Social conditions
.
Administrative
.
Other categories.
floods, insect or disease .
discoveries
conditions
changes
For each measure, list uncertain events in CONSEQUENCES Summary
Table 1. (after CONSEQUENCES Core Question 5).
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 5
What information is worth acquiring to improve your predictions?
What would it cost?
List information that should be collected to improve your degree of con&
dence to an acceptable level. Consider the following:
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i
:
Knowledge gaps (see CONSEQUENCEs Core Question 3) and uncertam events (see CONSEQUENCES Core Question 4).
Whether this new information would greatly change the predictions.
Whether your predictions would be more solidly confirmed.
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The deciding officer’s confidence in using the predictions to select an
alternative. This also applies to stakeholder groups, agencies, or
organizational units.
Whether it is possible to be as coddent as you desire.
Estimate the cost in time, money, and effort to obtain this new
information.
Explain why this information should be obtained. List the benefits in prediction improvement or other areas and explain why the benefits are
worthwhile.
Display key information needs, including cost and rationale for acquisition,
in CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 1.
60
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CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 1. Information Needs (CONSEQUENCES Core Questions l-5)
Objectiws
Measure 1
Side Effects Measure 7
Information sources (C-l)
Confidence rating (0 to 10) (C-2)
Knowledge gaps (for prediction)
(C-3)
Uncertain events (C-4)
Key information needs (C-5)
Cost of information collection (C-5)
You can stop now and pursue your information coUection plans or go on to a
preliminay assessment of consequences with the available information. 7R.e
preliminary cycle may point out some ad.ciitionaZ information needs or help
you to re* those already idenff~.
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Measures and Limits
Analysis
(Note:
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 6
What measures will you use to characterize and predict the
consequences of the alternative actions?
._
Record the answers to CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 6-7 in
CONSEQUENCES
Summary Table 2, following CONSEQUENCES Core Question 7.)
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For every situation component or attribute that might be affected by the
action, specify a measure(s) that will be useful in judging consequences
and in distinguishing among actions.
In the PROBLEM Cycle you defined objectives in terms of situation components, their attributes, and measures by which you could gauge success,
In the CONSEQUENCES Cycle, you should confii and clarify those measures as well as define measures for the unintended consequences (side
effects) of implementing the action.
Measures for predicting and characterizing consequences should have the
following qualities:
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Understandabk-Decisionmakers and stakeholders must be able
to understand the measure and how it characterizes the attribute.
Quantifiable-The measure should be capable of being quantified
or classified into categories, with levels, values, or some scale of
measure. A scale can be natural (for example, temperature), proxy
(for example, status of an ecological indicator species), or constructed (for example, f=e danger index). A constructed scale may
combine many measures into a single series of classes or levels. A
common example is the “heart risk-factor index” that uses genetic
and life-style factors to evaluate the relative healthiness of a human
cardiovascular system.
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Sensitive--The
measure should be responsive enough to environmental influences and management activities to show changes in
the attribute.
Measure values exist in several dimensions:
.
Magnitud~The value per unit of time or space
.
Extent-The span of influence of a measure in terms of geographic
area, structural characteristic, functional process, or some other
scale
Duration-The length of time the value (magnitude, extent, and so
forth) of a measure will continue
Likelihood--The
ing a reality
.
proba.bQity of a specific value of a measure becom-
Speed-The rate of change in the value of a measure or the time it
takes to reach a value.
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Defining a problem or predicting consequences involves choosing measures
whose values may change because of the action. Usually, one or two dimensions are changed by the action while the other dimensions stay constant or vary naturally. You either know or will have to make assumptions
about the values of the constant dimensions. The variable dimension is the
focus for problem framing and consequence analysis, but later your
analysis should be tested against assumptions you make here.
For example, one measure may be the acreage of a lake (extent) over which
a chemical will achieve some minimum concentration (magnitude) for a
certain period (duration) with 95 percent likelihood (likelihood) in 3 years
(speed). In this example, the acreage (extent) is the measure to be predicted
while the values of the other measures are assumed constant. Another example would be the years (speed) for streams in a certain watershed (extent) to achieve a distribution of channel stability classes (intensity) for 100
years (duration) with 90 percent likelihood. The prediction would be limited
to the speed of attainment.
A measure can be two-dimensional, presented as a two-axis system with
one dimension, for example, “condition AAA” on the y-axis and “years to
reach” a stage on the x-axis. The two-way measures can be assessed as
current (pairs of values) and proposed (pairs of values), representing a predicted shift because of the proposed action.
Some attributes seem impossible to quantify. Those can be addressed with
a “normalized” subjective value scale, assigning 0 or 1 to the worst condition for that attribute and 100 to the best condition.
For each objective and anticipated side effect, record a measure in CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 2, after CONSEQUENCES Core Question 7.
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 7
1
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P
4D
0’
What are acceptable consequences on these measures?
For each measure, describe the acceptable limits (threshold values) beyond which the consequences of the action are unacceptable. Measures
that exceed acceptable limits can signal devastating and irreversible
consequences.
Use these threshold values to evaluate each action, prioritize refinements,
and compare the alternative actions. Uncertainty in predicting consequences may be justification for reiinement or elimination of an altemative, if violating a threshold is a possibility. Activities whose consequences
stay within acceptable limits may not need to be modified or mitigated.
For each measure, describe acceptable limits in CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 2. If appropriate, describe the lower (minimum) or upper (maximum) values of acceptability. This is called an acceptable range.
For measures defined in the objectives
may be set at the desired value of the
not reach this desired value would be
you may wish to set a safe minimum,
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of the action, the acceptable limit
measure. A consequence that does
unacceptable. For other measures,
below which are unacceptable losses.
You can also establish an acceptable range of values from safe minimum to
desired.
Describe the source and rationale for these thresholds. Why are the limits
set at these values?
Limits of acceptability can be derived from legal statutes, published standards and guides, scientific literature, tradition, operating decision rules,
safety programs, and professional judgment. Collaboration with stakeholders can help to establish, clarify, or confirm limits of acceptability.
CONSEQUENCE!3 Summary Table 2. Acceptable Limits (Thresholds)
Questions 6-7)
Lower
(Minimum)
Value
Project Objective Measure 1 (PR-16):
Side Effect Measure 1 (C-6):
.1_
‘a
:,,.
Upper
(Maximum)
Value
(CONSEQUENCES Core
Desired
(Objectives)
Value
Sources and
Rationale for
Limits
Cause-Effect
Analysis
(Note: Record the results of CONSEQUENCES Core Question 8 in
CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 3, whichfotlows CONSEQUENCES Core
Question 8.)
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 8
What are the cause-effect relationships between the consequence
measures, the activities, and other influences?
Describe the important connections between the activity (action) and the
measures selected.
Use a diagram (see the tool for CONSEQUENCES Core Question 8 in Appendix A) to show how specific measures are affected by the activities being
considered and other influences such as other projects and the natural
and human influences you described as uncertainties in the PROBLEM
Cycle. Recognize that the proposed activity may produce cumulative
consequences that are different than the sum of the simple effects. This
may also occur when the proposed activity is repeated over time or when it
interacts with other activities or events.
Describe the relative strength and nature of these influences, especially the
cumulation of several activities or events on a measure.
Describe the cumulative consequences of these influences in CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 3.
Consider for each measure and activity or alternative action the following
interactions and influences:
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Current activities and in$u.ences-Using the cause-effect diagram,
show the effects or trends of current activities and influences in the
absence of the proposed action.
Simple in@uences-Consider
simple relationships between each
activity and the measure, both direct and indirect.
Activities within the &emotiue-Groups of activities that are parts of
the same proposed action may interact to change the value of the
measure. Consider whether the combination of effects on the measure creates consequences that are additive, multiplicative
(greater than the sum of the simple effects), or compensatory (less
than the sum or even less than the simple effect itself).
Other actions and projects-List activities from other projects that
might interact with your alternatives to influence the measure.
These activities can be periodic, ongoing, or planned. Interactions
can occur within or outside the analysis area.
Disturbcutces-Describe
likely disturbances or uncertain events and
their interaction with your actions.
Pending orforeseeable &cktons-Describe proposed policies or
actions that could interact with your alternatives.
65
CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 3. Causes and Cumulative Influences
Question 8)
Alternative
Action:
-l-
/
Objectives
Measure 2
Objectives
Measure 1
Activities
and Interactions
(CONSEQUENCES Core
Measures
Side Effect
Measure 1
Current and historical
influences and
direction (+ or -)
Side Effect
Measure 2
r
Activity that affects the
measure and direction
(+ or -) (D-7)
r
r
Activity that affects the
measure and direction
(+ or -) (D-7)
r
r
r
Interaction of activities
(additive,
multiplicative, or
compensatory) and
direction (+ or -)
r
Activity/influence
I
Interactions
and Direction of Adjustment (+ or -)
I
I
Other projects and
activities and direction
(+ or -)
r
I
r
Planned and pending
actions and direction
(+ or -)
r
Foreseeable actions
and activities and
direction (+ or -)
r
Disturbances and
uncontrollable events
and direction (+ or -)
Net Cumulative Influence
Net cumulative
influence or direction
(+ or -)
r
r
Cause-effect
comments and
description
66
Consequences
Prediction
(Note: Record results of CONSEQUENCES Core Questions 9-l 1 in
CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 4, following CONSEQUENCES Core Questimll.)
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 9
How will the values of the measures change if the alternative action is
implemented?
T
’
P
0’
@
Predict the future value of each measure under the influence of the activities in each alternative. Consider the interactions and the cause-effect
relationships you described in CONSEQUENCES Core Question 8 (CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 3). For each measure, do the following:
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?
?
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CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 10
Estimate the current value.
Predict the future value without any of the activities in the altemaUve. This is the no-action or status-quo alternative (see DESIGN
Core Question 2). Be sure to account for changes that occur naturally (see CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 3).
Predict the future value under the influence of the activities proposed in the alternative. Consult CONSEQUENCES Summary
Table 3 and consider the following:
-
Expected consequences from recurring activities that will
accumulate, perhaps dramatically
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Consequences that may occur across different geographic or
organizational spans
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Consequences that may be felt outside the analysis area.
Calculate the difference between the future value of the measure
without the alternative and the future value with the alternative.
This difference is called the effect of the alternative action.
Which predicted values exceed acceptable levels?
Identify those measures whose future values under the alternative would
be unacceptable. (Refer to CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 2.)
CONSEQUENCES
Core Question 11
Should the alternative be refined or eliminated from further
consideration because of unacceptable consequences? How should it
be refined?
Identify and record activities most responsible for unacceptable consequences. (See CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 3.) These activities will be
high priority for DESIGN Cycle refinement.
For each activity that causes unacceptable consequences, go back to the
DESIGN Cycle, Core Questions 8-l 1. There may be some key uncertainties
to resolve so also recycle through the “Information and Uncertainty Evaluation” section of the CONSEQUENCES Cycle (Core Questions l-5) to see if
you need to collect new information.
67
Refine the activities using these Core Questions and then cycle forward
through the CONSEQUENCES Cycle to see if the refined alternative can
produce acceptable consequences. If there are still unacceptable consequences. determine whether these consequences are important enough to
warrant eliminating the activity or even the entire alternative from further
consideration. This may require discussion with the deciding officer about
trade-offs or a reevaluation of the definitions of acceptable limits.
:.-.
.
For each alternative that produces unacceptable consequences, record the
activities to be refined and suggested refinements in CONSEQUENCES
Summary Table 4.
_ . .
Note whether the alternatives should be eliminated in the ‘Status” row in
CONSEQUENCES Summary Table 4 and your rationale for its elimination.
-.
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CONSEQUENCES
9-l 1)
Summary
Table 4.
Alternative
Status:
Measure
Measure A
Objective
Consequence
Predictions
(CONSEQUENCES
Core
Questions
action:
Measure B
Objective
1. Units
2. Current value
(C-9)
3. Future value
without the action
F-9)
4. Future value with
the action
famulative influence
of all activitiesand-interactions)
5. Change occurring
without the proposed
action
(Row 3 - Row 2)
6. Change occurring
with the proposed
action
(Row4-Row2)
7. Exceed
acceptable limits?
(Yes/Maybe/No)
(C-l 0)
8. Activities and
interactions most
influential
9. Activities to be
refined
10. Refinements
suggested
11. Activities to be
eliminated
69
Measure C
Side Effect
Measure D
Side Effect
Audit Questions
Reanswer the Initial Assessment Questions in this cycle. If you are unsatisfied with any answers, return to the appropriate Core Questions. See the
Appendix A, Team Leader Tips and Tools for process suggestions.
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