Seminar Stream 1A - Using crime mapping to target partnership resources (G)
Deployment of Community Rangers in Kirklees
In 2008, Kirklees Council significantly expanded the number of Community Rangers in post. These Rangers provide a key role in fostering community
relationships, identifying issues of concern and dealing with lower level crime / anti-social behaviour issues.
There is a significant demand for Rangers across the district from residents, partner agencies and in particular elected members. Consequently, the
Principal Community Safety Officer of the Safer Communities Partnership was tasked by the Rangers Steering group to develop an analytically sound
rationale for deploying rangers on the basis of multi-agency issues experienced and population characteristics rather than “who shouts loudest”. In
addition to this resource allocation, GIS technologies were used to identify communities where the appetite for resident engagement with partnership
agencies existed to ensure solutions to neighbourhood problems were more owned by communities and consequently longer lasting and more resource
efficient.
A process of multivariate cluster analysis was used to group together (using measures of deprivation) similar neighbourhoods which had the features where
rangers had seen to be most effective in the District.
These “neighbourhood families” were then explored to assess shared issues from a partnership perspective (including crime, graffiti, flytipping, perceptions
information) and how these shifted temporarily. This process involved working with partners to tackle barriers to accessing data, developing common
standards across datasets using appropriate cleansing and identifying previously hidden cross cutting issues through geographic analysis (using MAPINFO).
As a result of this work, it was possible to justify the deployment of rangers through a statistically robust yet user friendly model of resource allocation –
this has been used to great effect in discussions with relevant parties – in particular elected members. Initial evaluation of the effectiveness of the rangers
deployment has been measured in terms of tackling lower level anti-social behaviour and perceptions of safety.
Chris Walsh, Kirklees Safer Communities Partnership
The use of temporal profiling and crime mapping in a street lighting renewal project in Leeds
In mid 2006, the Leeds City Council Street Lighting Contract Manager approached Safer Leeds with a request to identify high crime areas that could
potentially benefit from improved street lighting. This paper discusses the use of crime mapping and temporal profiling to identify suitable areas for street
light renewal and examines what happened to crime once the street lighting was renewed.
Leeds City Council is undergoing a £300 million programme to upgrade street lighting in the city. Contractors plan the overall sequence of work; however,
Leeds City Council has the opportunity to re-schedule the replacement of a small number of lighting columns, up to a maximum of 500 each year. The
methodology for selecting high crime areas was critical, as it had to be sufficiently sensitive to identify; small areas, only crimes that happened during
darkness and the offences most likely to be affected by lighting levels. The selection of an appropriate geography was important, as only 500 columns could
be replaced in a year, therefore the identification of small areas was essential to ensure as many areas as possible could benefit. The method of temporal
profiling was of equal importance, traditional methods of mid-point and aoristic profiling give a risk profile for time of day, but do not identify the levels of
risk during the hours of darkness. Overcoming this challenge required the development of a profiling tool that used sunrise and sunset times. Having
identified high crime areas further checks were required to assess whether upgrading street lighting alone had the potential to reduce crime in these areas.
Many of the areas initially identified contained crime generators like schools and shopping centres, increasing protection by improving street lighting would
not be enough on its own to reduce vulnerability in such areas. Analysis identified 15 output areas, but not all these areas proved suitable for re-lighting,
either because of limits to the amount of re-sequencing work permitted or because the areas already had some form of lighting improvements.
In September 2006, Leeds Community Safety identified fifteen Output Areas for potential re-sequencing based upon the level of crime occurring during the
hours of darkness in these areas; by September 2007, five of these areas had street lighting replaced. A study in February 2008 looked at the crime trends
in these areas and made the following findings: Crime fell by significant amounts during the study period, both in the city as a whole and in the areas with
improved street lighting.
Fiona McLaughlin, Safer Leeds Partnership Team
Seminar Stream 1B - Sharing and publishing neighbourhood community safety data (G)
Sharing information with the public and across the partnership in Buckinghamshire - how to procure and implement an information sharing
hub
Overview Buckinghamshire Community Safety Partnership and Dotted Eyes are working in partnership to develop an interactive website to provide crime
statistics to the public. The website is due to be launched in Autumn 2008 and will also provide a secure log in for partners to access more detailed data to
assist with analysis and tasking. The data will be displayed in a number of formats including maps, graphs and tables. The presentation will outline how
Buckinghamshire Community Safety Partnership managed to prove the business case for the project and describe the challenges encountered by all parties
during the development process. Contributions will also be made by Dotted Eyes on behalf of West Midlands Police, who developed its MyNeighbourhood
community safety portal in conjunction with Dotted Eyes, and who wishes to share its post-implementation experiences. The presentation will provide
example "do’s” and “don’ts” for partnerships undertaking similar projects and provide an outline of how the solutions will be taken forward within
Buckinghamshire and the West Midlands. Background Buckinghamshire County Council; working in partnership with the four District Councils, Thames
Valley Police and Buckinghamshire & Milton Keynes Fire and Rescue Service, had been looking to implement a system to deliver a community information
sharing and mapping system for five years, but a number of challenges meant that the project was held back. In 2007, however, several drivers made
Buckinghamshire Community Safety Partnership reprioritise the development of an online community sharing and mapping system. Firstly, the new
Hallmarks of Effective Partnerships gave more support to the argument that an information-sharing hub was needed. Secondly, the statutory regulations
state a duty to share certain sets of depersonalised data, and, furthermore, in 2006, the Crime Statistics Review stated that relevant information should
also be made available in mapped form as a “key means of sharing information with the public.” Buckinghamshire Community Safety Partnership therefore
decided to develop a business case for an interactive website to provide crime statistics to the public through easy to understand mapping, graphs and
tables. It was felt that providing a website to the general public, rather than restricting access to the partnership, would help reduce the public’s fear of
crime and allow community action groups to be ‘evidence led’. Buckinghamshire Community Safety Partnership carried out a strategic assessment whilst
proving the business case, highlighting the partnership’s need for more analytical support. For four years the Partnership had funded an Information
Officer, whose purpose was to act as a central collection point for Partnership data, but it was becoming increasingly clear that the Information Officer’s
time was spent collecting, chasing and cleaning data, leaving little capacity for data analysis. It was recognised that an information-sharing hub would help
reduce the time spent collecting data, freeing up a valuable resource to focus on analysis. After proving the business case, Buckinghamshire Community
Safety Partnership chose to develop the new website in partnership with Dotted Eyes who had already developed a strong reputation for developing
partnership led community safety applications, most notably the MyNeighbourhood application for West Midlands Police. Challenges Throughout these
implementations, requirement-gathering exercises have been essential to define solutions which satisfy the needs of all partners, and this project was no
exception. Time was invested at the outset to ensure that all partners were aware of the capability and the limitations of the online mapping system,
ensuring that all partners’ expectations were aligned and realistic. Another key challenge was to secure funding for the project, but once the business case
was proven it was possible to secure the money to support this project.
Holly Farrow-Messenger and Charlie Gilbert, Buckinghamshire County Council
Delivering Neighbourhood Community Safety Information to the residents of Lancashire
The Smith report (Review of GIS-based Information Sharing Systems, Home Office online report 02/06) recommended that all areas should develop a public
interface that “offers a mechanism for supporting the reassurance agenda by providing the public with facts about community safety.” This is particularly
important in Lancashire which has a wide gap between the perception of crime and actual levels of crime. A public interface enables the public to vote on
community safety issues and empowers local community groups by giving them access to information. This presentation will look at how Lancashire
developed such a public interface. In 2001 Lancashire commissioned an information sharing system, called MADE, a data warehouse facility for community
safety related information in the county. This data warehouse was funded by and made available to the MADE partnership (responsible authorities named
under the 1998 Crime & Disorder Act). In 2006 the MADE partnership decided to make selected information available to the public. The aim behind
“Lancashire MADE Public” was to give Lancashire’s residents access to key statistics at ward level, from all the partners working to reduce crime and
provide the context for those statistics. It brings together datasets from the police, fire and ambulance services, links them to data provided by the council
and signposts to other sites which can provide contextual information about the neighbourhood. A connection is provided to the relevant neighbourhood
policing page. Data is presented in tabular, graphical and mapped forms and covers a two year period, updated monthly. Lancashire MADE public was
developed using existing in-house resources. An existing website “Safer Lancashire”, which receives over 150,000 hits per month, houses the facility. The
data table and graphs are powered by an oracle database which was funded by the MADE partnership and mapping is delivered via MARIO. Lancashire
County Council’s mapping product, MARIO, was chosen to deliver the mapping element rather than developing a GIS system specifically for MADE, as it
contains more data and functionality than could be provided by the project in isolation. The County Council is a key player in the delivery of the community
safety agenda and this collaboration ensures that data from all partners is co-located, in order to highlight where cross-partnership working provides the
most efficient solution. All these products were developed and are maintained by Lancashire County Council, the host partnership for MADE. The
amalgamation of existing products in one place made best use of existing resources and meant that a public interface could be developed with little
additional cost to the MADE partners but with high added value for the public. Lancashire MADE Public now receives over 1000 hits a month. The
challenges over the coming year will be to improve the interface, look at delivering data at a lower geography and increase the visibility. In summary,
Lancashire MADE Public has been put together from existing resources in order to give best value for money and a high level of service to the public.
Visit Lancashire MADE Public - www.saferlancashire.co.uk/statistics
Melanie Greenslade, Lancashire County Council
Class 1C - The key spatial theories of crime (B)
This class will explain how thinking about crime and space has developed into the field of environmental criminology. The class will provide an overview of
the key theoretical ideas that have shaped our understanding of criminal behaviour, including Routine Activities Theory, Rational Choice Theory, Crime
Pattern Theory, the least effort principle, and concepts relating to territoriality and defensible space. The class concludes with a hypothetical example
designed to demonstrate many of the theoretical concepts in a practical sense.
Spencer Chainey, Director of Geographical Information Science, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
Class 1D - Applying geodemographics to 'Public Attitude and Satisfaction' surveys to better understand your citizens’
perceptions of crime and police performance (G)
This class will focus on the analysis of perception and satisfaction surveys conducted by police forces and councils. Often, these surveys ask questions on
fear of crime, antisocial behaviour and contact with the police, providing a useful indication of the public's views on overall performance but with no means
of benchmarking or segmenting the underlying population.
However, by applying a geodemographic classification such as ACORN, the needs and expectations of the many different types of communities that live
within a force boundary can be assessed. For instance, how do affluent areas differ from deprived areas in their overall satisfaction with police service? Do
elderly single people living in rented accommodation have a higher fear of antisocial behaviour than middle-aged couples with mortgages? How can you
engage effectively with these distinct groups in order to address the issues arising from commissioned surveys?
The class will cover:
Brief overview of the use of geodemographics to understand consumer behaviour from both a private and public sector perspective;
Understanding and analysing ACORN 'profiles' of attitude and satisfaction surveys - we will use real life examples from work completed with a number of
forces around the country;
How to use a GIS to create 'market potentials' in order to map out and predict likely responses from communities who haven't been surveyed;
Using ACORN to understand the variety and complexity of media preferences within communities - i.e. what channels should be used to engage with
dissatisfied groups of citizens?
Paul Hatley and James Lennon, CACI Information Solutions
Class 1E - Spatial centrographic statistics and nearest neighbour measures (and an introduction to CrimeStat) (I)
CrimeStat is a spatial statistics program for analyzing crime incidents (free to download from the US NIJ website). Attendees will learn how to use the
program to input data files, define study area parameters, select routines, and output results to a GIS program. The emphasis will be on describing primary
and secondary spatial properties of a crime distribution, particularly on the relationship of incidents to each other. The statistics discussed include the
mean centre, standard deviational ellipse, centre of minimum distance, nearest neighbour analysis, and Ripley's "K". Examples will be shown of analyzing
robberies and vehicle thefts in a metropolitan area and of detecting spatial patterns of particular offenders.
Ned Levine, Ned Levine and Associates (Creator of the US National Institute of Justice product CrimeStat)
Seminar Stream 2A - Anti-social behaviour mapping (G)
CADIS - how to analyse and map anti-social behaviour in 25 hours a week
Anti-social behaviour is one of the key priorities of our local community so in 2003 Bracknell Forest Borough Council set up the Community Nuisance and
Disorder Information System (CADIS) to record and identify anti-social behaviour and trends across the borough. Prior to the use of CADIS, information that
had been reported to the police on anti-social behaviour that was not recorded as a crime was largely not analysed. CADIS sought to redress this. In
addition, the inclusion of data from other partners in our Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnership (CDRP), such as the fire service and local Town and
Parish Councils, gives a comprehensive picture of anti-social behaviour across the borough. CADIS has been instrumental in helping with neighbourhood
policing, for example:
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Identifying locations, times and types of anti-social behaviour around licensed premises
Providing maps of particular issues for Neighbourhood Action Groups
Maps of anti-social behaviour around particular properties have been used as evidence for drug house closures and have been praised by the
magistrate involved.
CADIS has evolved from a complex set of interlinked Excel spreadsheets to a bespoke SQL server based database system specified by and developed for
Bracknell Forest. Raw data is geocoded (and sanitised in the case of police data) using OmniData and then imported from Excel files to the database. A
powerful search mechanism with up to 200 search criteria together with over 50 different reporting and exporting tools provides comprehensive analysis
capability to satisfy partner needs.
Examples of searches and reports:
 Search for any incidents of suspicious behaviour, needle finds, noise complaints, abandoned vehicles and dumped rubbish around suspected drug
houses in the last 3 months;
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Report of number of incidents per street per neighbourhood to focus PCSO resources;
Extract all reports of deliberate fires, dumped rubbish or abandoned vehicles for mapping to check for hot spots for partnership action;
Report showing graffiti and broken glass incidents and alcohol misuse in a problem area month by month for consideration of a dispersal order;
Report showing demographic statistics – e.g. incidents per 1000 households by neighbourhood - for a particular period.
The database system currently has no mapping facility but exported data is imported into ESRI(UK)’s ArcMap via Crime Analyst to provide hot spots, repeat
victimisation and thematic maps. We also have plans in place to make statistics and maps available on a neighbourhood basis on our public web site. Has it
been a success? Well – in 2007/8 Bracknell Forest local policing area had the best results for BCS crime reduction (20.4%) in Thames Valley Police and the
borough earned the accolade of “Improving Strongly” and a 4 star overall performance. Not all down to CADIS, but it has been recognised as a significant
contributor. And the 25 hours? I manage the collection of CADIS data, the CADIS database and produce reports and maps on a monthly, annual and ad hoc
basis and that’s how many hours I work each week.
Gill Biddle, Bracknell Forest Borough Council
Profiling anti-social behaviour through partnership working for strategic application
The 2008/09 Birmingham Community Safety Partnership (BCSP) took the opportunity presented by the end of the PSA1 crime reduction target round to
restructure its annual Strategic Assessment. Focusing previously on specific crime types the Information and Intelligence Team sought to structure the
current assessment on ‘themes’ closely associated with community safety in Birmingham. Although anti-social behaviour (ASB) had been considered in all
previous assessments, a specific section on the ASB issues in Birmingham seemed an obvious choice in light of the new national indicator set (DCLG, 2008).
All BCSP Strategic Assessments include a Composite Index of Community Safety – a map of vulnerability across the City based on a list of Community Safety
indicators – which has been extremely successful in directing resources. It was envisaged that the ASB section would also provide a composite index which
would assist in directing resources as well as profiling ASB across Birmingham. After identifying ASB referral points across the City, data requests were
submitted that would provide a comprehensive picture of ASB in Birmingham. Data was obtained from:
 West Midlands Police;
 West Midlands Fire Service;
 Birmingham City Council Housing Services;
 Birmingham Waste Management Services;
 The Birmingham Anti-Social Behaviour Helpline;
 Birmingham Anti-Social Behaviour Unit.
This presented some significant technical problems; namely that different organisations adhere to different classification systems of ASB and that the total
number of ASB incidents recorded by each source easily exceeded 121,000. It was decided to align all the recorded incidents to the Home Office Typology
of ASB (Home Office, 2004) in order to facilitate the collection into a Composite Index of ASB. This would not only provide a single geographical
representation of ASB in Birmingham but also provide four core areas of ASB that could be further broken down to specific incident types. A complete
picture of ASB in Birmingham for 2007 was provided which supported assumptions such as the priority locations of ASB, in addition to highlighting new
issues such as the contradiction between the types of ASB reported as problems via surveys compared to the types reported directly to an authority. Most
importantly it provided the basis of a performance framework to monitor levels of ASB as well as an intelligence tool for identifying and responding to
problems. As a direct consequence of the Birmingham Composite Index of ASB, all referral organisations listed above are aligning their recording practices
to the Home Office Typology of ASB and agreeing to formal data sharing protocols to facilitate performance management. The BCSP can also now provide
NIM related products specifically focusing on ASB. This presentation will detail the process of obtaining, processing and analysing the data required to
develop a Composite Index of ASB within a Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnership area. It will then highlight the benefits and opportunities presented
by the Composite Index by outlining the key findings that have justified its role in supporting the Birmingham Anti-Social Behaviour Strategy (BCSP, 2007).
References Birmingham Community Safety Partnership (2007) Anti-Social Behaviour Strategy 2007-2010, http://www.birmingham-basbu.org.uk
Department for Communities and Local Government (2008) National Indicators for Local Authorities and Local Authority Partnerships: Handbook of
Definitions, Communities and Local Government Publications Home Office (2004) Defining and measuring anti-social behaviour, Home Office Development
and Practice Report.
Michael Mitchell, Birmingham Community Safety Partnership
Seminar Stream 2B - Advancing geographical analysis techniques (A)
Hot Routes - developing a technique for the spatial analysis of bus crime in London
The spatial analysis of bus crime can be problematic, and the traditional use of hotspots is not always a clear way of viewing bus related incidents. Hotspots
map the spread of incidents across areas that often contain multiple roads, and do not take into account the boundaries of the route. Whole areas are
flagged up as problem locations rather than the actual route and roads a bus travels along. The limitations of hotspot mapping can be overcome by using
the Hot Routes method to identify sections of road that have high concentrations of crime. This method respects the environment in which incidents occur,
and does not ignore the topography of an area, which are both crucial for accurate analysis. Used alongside other mapping techniques, this method allows
a further dimension to be added to analysis and understanding of bus related incidents.
The Hot Routes mapping technique involves taking a simple linear road map and using thematic shading to highlight sections of road that have high data
concentrations along them. This method uses a combination of CAD references and road names to identify sections of road that data points falls onto. The
problem of unequal road section lengths is overcome by weighting the data to create a per metre measure. Locations along the route with the highest
frequencies of data are then clearly identifiable.
This method can be used in a number of ways to improve the analysis and use of bus related data. Incidents of bus crime tend to be highest on bus routes
that travel through high crime areas (Pearlstein and Wachs, 1982). Plotting the course of a bus route through high crime areas enables us to see which
sections are at highest risk of crime. However, Hot Routes also allows us to identify concentrations of bus crime along actual sections of the route. This
allows the viewer to determine whether concentrations of bus crime are unique to the internal environment of the bus or influenced by the external
environment the bus passes through. In addition, we can compare levels of crime and disorder on a section of route with the physical and sociodemographic characteristics of the surrounding area. At Transport for London this technique is useful for route based enforcement activities. For example,
Safer Transport Teams provide visibility and reassurance and cut crime, disorder and anti-social behaviour on and around public transport. This mapping
technique could be used to identify priority sections of routes for problem solving, and for public reassurance and education.
This technique is currently being used with Transport for London’s Driver Incident Report data, however it is aimed to further implement the technique
using CRIS data. However, at current data standards, further work will need to be done to overcome the data inaccuracy, in order to create reliable and
accurate mapping.
Naomi Shepherd and Henry Partridge, Transport for London
Individual space time patterns of serial burglary offenders: mapping risk for operational responses
This paper reports on research into the space-time behaviour of burglary crime, in particular that of individual serial offenders, and on an extension to the
use of the near repeat phenomena in operational policing in Bournemouth as reported at last years’ conference. Analysis appertaining to serial burglary
offending over a period of several years was undertaken with access to full offending histories. Little research has been undertaken on this issue with the
use of individual offender data, previous work predominantly utilising recorded crime data with reference to crime scene behavioural indicators. Two
stages were involved, the first of which can be described as ‘area analysis’, the purpose being to ascertain if space-time clusters (or ‘near repeats’) were
manifest in recorded crime data for the study area. The results were used to inform the second stage comprising of crime series’ analysis of identified
prolific burglary offenders to establish their propensity to commit offences close in space and close in time. The work required the development of a new
methodology to ascertain and describe potential space-time patterns of individuals. Closest offending behaviour of individuals was established in terms of
both time and distance and descriptive statistics with measures of skewness utilised as indicators of overall behaviour. The results add to previous
academic findings in the field of crime prevention, providing further evidence that current ‘repeat offence’ crime reduction policies need reviewing and
expanding to take account of the element of contagious risk apparent in burglary crime. Concerning individual offending behaviour indications from this
work are that most serial burglary offenders commit ‘near repeat’ burglaries, there is a common range of time spans and distance bands within which such
offending is carried out. The result of this recent research strongly suggests that serial offenders identify minimum distances from previous offences within
which they will prefer not to offend further until a certain minimum time has elapsed. In other words offenders mentally place spatial and temporal buffers
around past crime locations and avoid offending within the spatial buffer until the time buffer has ‘expired’. In an effort to retain an operational output the
author further developed empirical analysis of serial offending patterns in order to identify small space spatial behaviour of active serial burglary offenders.
Simple spreadsheet functions are used in such a way that a serial offender’s personal space-time buffers can be determined as his/her series of crimes
develops. This in turn suggests areas and time spans where an offence is unlikely to take place and therefore conversely where the risk of offending is
greater. Such mapping therefore creates both enforcement and reduction opportunities that are empirically led. Dorset Police are currently utilising this
new analytical method in order to enhance identification and linking of crime series and provide additional evidence led pro-active enforcement
opportunities. To date it has proved to be a useful and valid tool, in particular for planning both overt and covert patrol/observation strategies that will be
exampled within the presentation.
Derek Johnson, Northumbria University
Class 2C – Monitoring performance: PSA 23 and APACs (G)
1 April 2008 saw a number of changes to the Home Office's approach to community safety:
The introduction of APACS (Assessments of Policing and Community Safety) brought in a unified set of measurements across the community safety agenda,
linked to the new-style Local Area Agreements
The CDRP-level targets under PSA 1 finished, to be replaced by PSA 23, a more flexible national target based on a greater focus on local priorities
Implementation of the new Crime Strategy began, characterised by a drive to tackle violent crime alongside volume crime and anti-social behaviour, and an
emphasis on the importance of addressing reoffending.
This workshop sets out this new landscape, explores the development of APACS (including a review of progress on those indicators that have yet to be
decided), explains the flagging system under the new measures, and looks at how mapping can be used to identify priorities and plan action to deliver this
work.
Paul Dowell, Home Office
Class 2D – Northgate GIS software showcase: Northgate's location solution (G)
Northgate's location solution showcase will take you through our latest thinking and developments around crime mapping and location-based analysis.
We have recently released a set of crime mapping tools for intelligence and crime analysts that build on the sophisticated capabilities already available to
many of you through Northgate xd, our analytical GIS. Our showcase will demonstrate these tools, and show how they can support analysis techniques
such as centrographic statistics, data clocks, link building and proximity buffering.
Driven by simple to use wizards, these spatial and non-spatial tools (delivered together as Northgate xd CrimePack1) focus on generating results. They help
you formulate, test and refine your hypotheses around identifying the underlying processes that determine the spatial and temporal pattern of crime
events.
The showcase will also discuss some of our other solutions for crime and intelligence analysts, including our Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR)
solution which gives analysts a far greater capability for using ANPR data to investigate and prevent crime.
Northgate are the leading supplier of crime mapping tools to the UK police service and the Crime Mapping Conference is one of the best opportunities we
get to meet the analyst community. The conversations we have at the conference are an important way for us to gain an understanding of how we should
be developing our solutions to meet your needs. We look forward to seeing you again this year.
Andy Nicholls, Location Solutions Manager, Northgate Information Solutions
Class 2E – An introduction to geoforensics (G)
Geoforensics is a relatively new and rapidly developing branch of forensic science which has a wide range of applications from the macro scale down to the
micro scale. All crimes take place in an environment that gives that particular crime a specific context. Geoforensics at the macro scale can help
investigators identify burial sites or other areas of possible interest. At the smaller scale, trace amounts of soil recovered from shoes, vehicles, clothing and
pertinent sites can provide a lot of useful information that can aid a criminal investigation.
It is vitally important that geoforensic scientists are aware and sensitive to the particular context of each crime under investigation if they are to make
accurate and meaningful interpretations of the results derived from their analysis. To this end experimental studies are of great importance, particularly as
they can generate surprising results which may change the way we think about particular forms of evidence, their presence or indeed their absence at a
crime scene. A number of the geoforensic techniques that are routinely used will be presented and exemplified with reference to criminal case studies
where the geoforensic input provided valuable clues. In addition the results of some recent experimental work will also be presented which has
implications for the direction of geoforensics in the future.
Ruth Morgan, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
Seminar Stream 3A - Capturing intelligence in the field (I)
Towards a seamless passenger experience of transport policing in London – Enabling the effective sharing of intelligence between transport
community partners
Over 27 million passenger journeys are made the London transport network every year. Whether travelling on their daily route to work or on ad hoc
journeys to tourist attractions, commuters expect a safe and reliable journey. With overall governance for implementing the Mayor’s transport strategy,
Transport for London work with their partners to provide commuters with a safe, reliable and socially inclusive transport network as a minimum
requirement. Recognising that real and perceived crime on the network influences the demand for public transport, TfL have dedicated a department to
improving safety on the transport network. The Community Safety, Enforcement and Policing (CSEP) Directorate work with their partners from the
Metropolitan Police, British Transport Police, City of London Police, London Boroughs and third-party transport operating companies to provide effective
and seamless transport policing across the bus, tube, taxi, river boat and rail networks. In realising this vision for a seamless passenger experience of
transport policing, CSEP work to overcome challenges of governance, resource management between partner groups, and the integration of both
technology and data from the crime enforcement agencies. The Web Intelligence Network (WIN) is one innovative solution in a suite that supports CSEP in
tackling these challenges and realising their wider vision for integrated agencies and seamless transport policing. Through the effective utilisation of
technology WIN has provided a single coherent process for gathering intelligence from enforcement stakeholders. WIN enables users across all transport
partners to log and map intelligence when they are in the field through an easy to use web and GIS based system. Users have the reassurance that their
captured intelligence is securely stored and transferred and only available to their peers and authorised personnel. Authorised personnel include CSEP’s
crime analysts who map WIN-generated intelligence with actual crime, anti-social behaviour, perception and contextual data to ensure that their tactical
and strategic planning is most effective. WIN is helping TfL address the embedded 'logbook culture' within the transport community, encouraging the staff,
such as bus drivers, revenue protection, Underground gateline staff, who are the ‘eyes and ears’ of the network to share intelligence with policing partners.
CSEP’s experience has highlighted a gap between descriptions within recorded crime data and the experience of the bus operators; WIN will continue to
help fill this intelligence gap. The project has directly supported the integration of policing partners with the 21 Safer Transport Teams in the outer London
Boroughs, who are directly responsible for community engagement, visibility and reassurance.
Rachel Carson and Colin Banno-Thornton, Informed Solutions
Key Individual Networks – Streamlining data capture and reporting
Key Individual Networks – KINs for short – is a process of community consultation which allows crime reduction partnerships to take the temperature of
community opinion, and identify emerging problems quickly. Networks are made up of a core group of local people who live, work or regularly pass
through a neighbourhood. By the nature of their place or function in the local community, KIN members will be particularly in tune with the latest
developments in their neighbourhoods. Each neighbourhood in Bolton has developed a network of around 20 individuals, who are all asked a standard
series of questions – currently on a bi-annual basis – relating to crime, antisocial behaviour and physical or environmental disorder. Initially, responses to
these questionnaires, conducted by Police Community Safety Officers, were recorded on paper, then input onto a database at a later stage. To streamline
this process, Bolton has developed software which which allows PCSOs to record the results of KINS questionnaires on handheld computers. The
application reads a script file, which can be adapted to process different surveys, and outputs two tables: one holding text-based responses, and the other
the geographical coordinates of problem locations. One of its main features is a mapping module (using MapInfo’s MapX Mobile) that allows users to
pinpoint on local maps exactly where they think the most serious problems exist. The mapping interface is a relatively simple one, which pans automatically
to the correct neighbourhood, then allows the user to zoom in to more detailed mapping layers, or to navigate to the correct location using a street index.
There is also scope for gathering other information – e.g. time/day maps of problems using the same module. This process provides increased efficiency
and reliability. Manual input of responses plus analysis typically took one to two days per survey (equating to up to 26 weeks work a year). The new system
means that data is ready to analyse immediately. Feedback from PCSOs also confirms that actually gathering the information in this way is more efficient
than a paper-based system. Additionally, the way the software is designed avoids blank responses, and ensures further standardisation (for instance
requiring users to enter the same number of geographical points for each problem). Analysis of KINS results is included in discussions at Local Area
Partnership (LAP) meetings, and generates actions at a tactical level, while comparisons between surveys at different times provide an additional way of
evaluating initiatives and operations. In the longer-term, KINS results are also used in strategic analysis. Due to the survey’s relatively standard structure,
there is also scope for automatic report generation at the analysis stage. Currently we employ customised SPSS routines to generate standard results
tables, but the next step is to adapt other routines already being used with crime and incident data to auto-generate MS Word reports containing text,
results tables and hotspot maps (accessing MapInfo remotely though MapBasic). Demos of the mobile software, and automatic report generation will both
be run during the presentation.
Jonathan Bradley and Daniel Swain, Bolton Community Safety Services
Seminar Stream 3B - Developing intelligence using crime mapping (I)
Mapping the Footfall of Organised Crime - Project MERCATOR
As part of a national project Leicestershire Constabulary are undertaking the mapping of all Organised Crime Groups in Leicestershire. Carrying on from
Project Frisius, which was presented to the conference last year, in an innovative move the Forces Operational Intelligence Branch are taking the mapping a
stage further. In partnership with ESRI UK they are utilising GIS to provide the knowledge relating to the impact that the criminality associated to these
groups is having on the neighbourhoods and communities within Leicestershire, Leicester and Rutland to local command units as well as the
neighbourhood teams. By showing the true picture of Organised Crime within the County by the use of maps it has shown that street level crime is
connected to the higher echelon of criminality as well as the attachment to gang related and violent crime, including the possession and use of firearms. In
the past this type of information has not been made widely available due to the sensitivities of investigations concerning the Organised Crime Groups. The
Operational intelligence Branch has found that they are able to sanitise the data by using maps whilst still showing the footfall of criminality in the
community. By producing mapping to local area commanders it has meant that they are better informed of the risks and threats that are posed at a local
level. This has meant that investigations into sophisticated Organised Crime Groups can be investigated at all levels, linking neighbourhood policing to
complex and covert investigations without compromising any part of the operations. For the first time the mapping of organised crime can be incorporated
into neighbourhood profiles to allow decisions to be made relating to the direction of resources and tactics at a community level. By including different
datasets imported into the ESRI GIS together with products from both sensitive and open sources, raw data and information can be turned into knowledge
which in turn is allowing the operational Intelligence Branch to produce intelligence products to allow the deployment of the minimum of resources to have
the biggest effect against organised crime. The use of GIS in this way allows graphical representation of the harm caused by organised crime, by overlaying
the principle offenders at all levels of the organised crime enterprises together with crime data it has identified organised crime ‘hotspots’. The hotspots of
OCG activity have been surprising; some of them are small affluent villages in the Leicestershire countryside. Mapping has allowed focussed intelligence
gathering on these hotspots and without the use of the GIS this may have gone un-noticed. The use of this technique as a strategic tool is now becoming
apparent. It is being used by managers to identify and prioritise the main risks and threats faced by Leicestershire Constabulary relating to organised crime.
By graphically representing the data within a GIS it is allowing the briefing of it throughout the force electronically and will be utilised on mobile data for
the use and access of all officers whilst working in the areas identified as a threat.
DCI Simon Jones and Supt Mark Wilson, Leicestershire Constabulary
Understanding Cultural Diversity within Bolton using geographic information
Bolton Council was one of the first Local Authorities to recognise the importance of building cohesion between its many diverse communities before and
after the disturbances in northern towns in the summer of 2001. The Council has continued to strengthen its commitment by developing a wide-ranging
programme of initiatives tackling key issues across Bolton and in priority localities. However, whilst the Council has a deserved reputation in this area, it has
maintained harmonious community relations and has much by way of good practice which can be shared with other communities, it also recognises that
the state of community cohesion in Bolton is changing in response to local developments, as well as national and international events.
It was therefore decided to review and refresh its approach to promoting community cohesion and sought an independent external advice from the
Institute of Community Cohesion (iCoCo) led by Professor Ted Cantle. iCoCo looked to capture Bolton’s good practice, compare its approach with that of
other leading authorities and ‘reality test’ programmes against current – and as far as possible, future - expectations in the local community and amongst
local partners.
The iCoCo report highlighted issues around the lack of understanding of the Muslim population in the borough particularly in terms of a detailed knowledge
of Islamic sects and how this can exacerbate divisions within the community. The challenge represented by fully understanding and robustly enforcing the
local drugs market by a street level up approach was also highlighted. This linked to the requirement to fully understand and map an increasingly diverse
population was highlighted.
Building on these recommendations a detailed analysis of the community has been undertaken in Bolton utilising the following datasets
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Experian’s Origin Data
ISA (Child Index data)
Mosaic data
Definition and mapping of Masajid by sect (Barelwi and Deohondi)
Community Consultation (Somali, Pakistani, Indian etc)
Key Individual Networks
Crime (Victim offender relationships)
Local level ‘tension’ mapping
Environmental surveys
Youth consultation
Analysis of media coverage
Worklessness (Working age claimant groups)
IMD 04/07 changes
School roles by ethnicity and location
Understanding and mapping of OCG
Leisure provision
Customer contact data (CRM)
The focus of the initial work was based around an area of existing tension that has been recently exacerbated by the murder of a young Pakistani male that
was perceived by the community to be racist in nature.
The main outcome of the exercise was to define a process which could be used within other areas of the borough to help understand the complexity and
diverse nature of the council’s existing customer base. This can then be used to enable a much more targeted approach particularly based on the
deployment of Community Safety resources.
David Hashdi, Bolton Council
Class 3C – Understanding hotspots (G)
A number of methods and techniques exist for mapping crime and identifying hotspots. Different methods produce different results, with some being more
suitable than others for understanding where hotspots of crime occur. The class will explore the utility of point mapping, thematic mapping of geographic
administrative areas (e.g. output areas), grid thematic mapping, kernel density estimation and the Gi* statistic for identifying crime hotspots. The class will
be fully interactive; gets delegates to consider the advantages and disadvantages between the techniques and the theory that underpin them.
Spencer Chainey, Director of Geographical Information Science, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
Class 3D – MapInfo GIS software showcase: Introducing MapInfo Professional version 9.5 - the power of insight (G)
MapInfo Professional version 9.5 is the latest release of Pitney Bowes MapInfo's flagship desktop mapping product.
The purpose of this session is to cover new features and capabilities within this release. Our latest version brings very important new capabilities that will
benefit a variety of users in crime analysis and law enforcement environments.
The session will consist of live software demonstrations involving the following major themes:
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Ease of Use
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Better Looking Maps
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New Data Editing Tools
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Extended Data Access
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Enhanced Licensing & Deployment
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MapBasic and Programming with .NET
The aim of this session will be to demonstrate how these new capabilities with help you realise the benefits of MapInfo Professional version 9.5 in
improving your visualisation, analysis and presentation of maps.
Tom Probert, EMEA Desktop Product Manager, Pitney Bowes MapInfo
Class 3E– Modelling the journey to crime using the Crime Travel Demand Model (in CrimeStat) (A)
This class presents an overview of crime travel demand modelling, an application of transportation modelling to geographical crime analysis. The Crime
Travel Demand Model offers a useful means of extending journey to crime analysis by modelling the locations to which offenders’ travel, the travel modes
that they use, and routes that offenders frequent on their journey to crime. For example, it can help identify the likely locations for committing crimes and
the most popular routes that offenders take, therefore aiding not only an understanding of geographical patterns of offending, but also helping to target
stop and search activity and ANPR (Automatic Number Plate Recognition) camera deployment based on a model of offenders movements.
Delegates will learn about the steps involved in calibrating a Crime Travel Demand Model and how it can be used for policy and crime intervention analysis.
The modelling steps involve a data inventory, trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and network assignment. Examples will be shown of using a
Crime Travel Demand Model to study robbery patterns in a metropolitan area, exploring policy interventions for reducing crashes caused by driving whilst
intoxicated, and using the model to make estimates about where serial offenders live.
Ned Levine, Ned Levine and Associates (Creator of the US National Institute of Justice product CrimeStat)
4A Seminar stream – Prioritising neighbourhoods (G)
Creating cross cutting opportunities in Birmingham's neighbourhoods
A strategy for neighbourhoods is crucial for Birmingham. Whilst the public service agencies serving Birmingham’s people have worked to spread prosperity
across Birmingham, there are areas of acute and long-standing deprivation. The problems of these areas are deep rooted and multi-faceted and need a
joined up approach by all agencies and local residents if they are to be tackled. This paper presents the results of the work I have undertaken in identifying
some of the key drivers behind community safety, how I have used GIS as a tool to enable information sharing with partners to be able to map priority
neighbourhoods and understand what issues make these areas a priority. The presentation will look:
 at how the composite map was compiled
 success of prioritising resources
 data sharing between partners and how to overcome potential problems
Birmingham CDRP has for the last 3 years been producing its composite index of priorities based on layering multi-agency data to indicate priority
neighbourhoods. Using this method a clear assessment of need - based on classifying neighbourhoods into three groups, "priority", "at risk" and "stable"
has been adopted. This method has allowed us to target resources more effectively into priority areas and the results have seen that not only has crime
reduced in these neighbourhoods but the gap between these priority neighbourhoods and the City has also been closed. With CDRP’s now being largely
funded out of the working neighbourhood fund, a large emphasis of partnership work is focused on tackling unemployment. For the CDRP to be successful
in bidding for funding it has become necessary to show where cross cutting opportunities lie for multi-agency work and its benefits to reducing
worklessness. An example of this is where the Birmingham Reducing Gang Violence programme has approached the Learning and Skills Council and youth
groups within the City. GIS has enabled analysis to be undertaken to show that it is the same areas and the same people who both agencies will be
targeting and that employment itself can act as a capable guardian for offenders as it limits the opportunity to offend. The Partnership’s Strategic
Assessment highlighted other areas that can have an impact on community safety such as; access to housing; educational attainment; and health and well
being. By building a composite map of all the different partners’ data it has been possible to evidence the Wards that would benefit most from a crosscutting partnership approach. The practical use of this process has been for other branches of the Partnership to use an intelligence-led approach to their
areas of business, for community safety, it has given us the ability to engage with other partners based on shared priorities. The next step of this project is
to increase the quantity and quality of the data sources used to make an overall composite map, this will allow for an even greater understanding of the
root causes as to why these areas to become priorities.
Stuart Gardner, Birmingham Community Safety Partnership
Developing a Vulnerable Localities Index for Leeds – A Case Study
The Vulnerable Localities Index has been in use by crime and disorder partnerships and police forces for a number of years. This paper discusses the
approach used by Safer Leeds to develop a Vulnerable Localities Index, how the index was subsequently validated using Environmental Visual Audits and
gives examples of how Safer Leeds used the Vulnerable Localities Index to inform the work of the Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnership. Although the
Vulnerable Localities Index has been designed to be simple to calculate and use data that is easy to obtain, setting aside the time for this kind of work can
sometimes be difficult. Fortunately, Safer Leeds was able to get help from an undergraduate student from Leeds University, where the School of Geography
run a work placement module for final year students. The requirements from the University for the work placement module were that the project should
have a strong geographical foundation, be work that would have a practical use for the host organisation, and that the project would have a measurable set
of aims. Creating a Vulnerable Localities Index for Leeds was an ideal project for both the University and Safer Leeds. Having an independent person work
on the Vulnerable Localities Index for Leeds proved invaluable because of the ambition of the student to get the product right and their willingness to
challenge pre-conceived ideas. Calculating and mapping the Vulnerable Localities Index are only the first stages in identifying and prioritising the areas most
likely to suffer from community breakdown and tension. Another important consideration when identifying priority areas is to check that index and
secondary analysis actually reflect what is happening in the real world Environmental Visual Audits provided a useful tool that helped put the theory into
context. To help validate the index, a small project team visited areas with a Band 1 VLI score and assessed the areas using an Environmental Visual Audit
checklist. Whilst some areas showed obvious signs of crime, disorder and social problems, others only exhibited minor indications that there may be
underlying problems; this emphasised the importance of creating a balanced area profiles using a wider range of data and intelligence. The final stage of
the work placement project was to create area profiles for use as a benchmarking tool for the Joint Strategic Assessment to help define and set the
priorities for Safer Leeds Annual Partnership Plan. Since completing the project, analysts have used the Vulnerable Localities Index to combine with
independent data sets including graffiti removal information from Leeds City Council, using the VLI in this way made it possible to identify areas that may
have community tension issues, particularly when other forms of reporting are low.
Fiona McLaughlin, David Jackson and Luke Burns, Safer Leeds Partnership Team
4B Seminar stream - Crime mapping for supporting police investigations (G)
Temporal geographical Routine Activity Theory
In 2002 a problem with indecent exposures in Tamworth was highlighted within a Tactical Assessment document and as a result Jayne Bentley an analyst
was requested to look at the problem. Using a Comparative Case Analysis chart, the offences were broken down by times, days of the week, location and
suspect description. 9 offences were identified that seemed to be connected. There was no apparent pattern to the days upon which offences occurred,
but they had mostly taken place on weekdays. They were generally in and to the North-West of the Town Centre and seemed to occur in two time frames 07:00 to 07:30 and 17:00 to 18:30. The offences were mapped and when reviewed purely by the times they had occurred a pattern became apparent. The
morning offences followed a route into the town centre, whilst the evening ones followed a route out. The map of the offences was combined with a brief
timeline chart that represented the offences in time of day order. It could be seen that the first morning offence occurred just after 07:00 with each
subsequent offence plotted chronologically following the route into town. The evening offences began near the Town Centre and, plotted chronologically,
followed the route out of town. Initial thoughts were that the shops and/or the college might be the draw into the town, with the offender’s home address
predicted as being at some point near the first offence on the route into town. The possibility that the offender could be a night worker in one of the
factories to the North-West of town was also considered. Further searching identified 2 similar offences in the Amington area of Tamworth which had
occurred on a footpath which led towards business units. Using local knowledge, Jayne identified that the morning offences ended close to a number of bus
stops. The Bus Company identified that there was a bus from the town at the time in question, which went to Amington Industrial Estate. The work of the
analysts suggested that the offender was one and the same. The belief was that he resided in an area to the North-West of the town from where he would
walk to catch a bus from the Town Centre in the morning to the Amington area of the town. He would then walk along the footpath to his place of work at
the business units. In the evening he would do the same journey in reverse. After discussion with senior officers and the Risk Assessor an operation was
conducted. Officers in plain clothes targeted the footpath in Amington during the times of the earlier offences and a person matching the description of the
offender for the 11 offences was sighted. He was followed to one of the business units at the end of the footpath. He was arrested, charged and convicted
for all of the identified offences. His home address was only a matter of yards from where it had been suggested it would be.
Ian Bentley and Jane MacVicar, Staffordshire Police
Operation Siluga - using GIS techniques for a large scale public disturbance investigation
Operation Siluga is the post disorder investigation into over 270 recorded offences and over 500 calls for assistance in the Lozells and Handsworth areas of
Birmingham UK over a period of 2 days in October 2005. The offences investigated ranged from Criminal Damage to Violent Disorder and Attempted
Murder. This public disturbance involved members of the Black and Asian communities and was the culmination of raised community tension after an
alleged sexual attack on a 14 year old girl. Since the disorder the Community Impact Assessments completed for the operation show high levels of renewed
community cohesion and praise given to the police and partners for the manner in which the disorder was policed and has subsequently been investigated.
The investigation is the largest ever conducted by West Midlands Police and is still ongoing. The presentation will focus on various mapping techniques
used throughout different strands of the investigation of this major urban disorder. The first strand will concentrate on those maps used to brief officers. It
was clear from very early into the investigation that it would be a lengthy, complicated affair and the turnover of staff involved would be high. It was
therefore necessary to create visually impactive animated maps which relayed the real gravity of the disorder (i.e. the volume/geographic spread of
offending and the racially aggravated element) as it was hard to envisage without such a visual aid. Therefore a set of maps were created to brief staff that
were new to the investigation as well as managers. The next strand of the presentation will be concerned with intelligence and evidence gathering. GIS was
used to identify how best evidence could be secured. The case was (and is being) prosecuted across 5 distinct groups of offenders during the 2 days of
disorder and as a consequence, differing levels of video evidence was available to help prosecute different groups. By plotting CCTV locations and the flight
path of the police helicopter, a detailed account could be given of which evidence would be best used against different people or groups. Where video
evidence was not of particular use, further GIS techniques such as Telecommunication Cell Site Analyses were used to help the Senior Investigating Officer
decide appropriate action against individuals. Finally the presentation will discuss the evidential use of maps within the investigation. For certain groups of
individuals, it was vital to illustrate their physical movement through the offending in order for a jury to fully understand how the group of offenders
progressed through the area, effectively contextualizing the sometimes disorientating video evidence. To this end, a series of maps were produced showing
detailed movements of each offender within a particular group, coupled with the offences that the individual was being charged with. This corporate
approach allowed several offenders to be tried alongside one another as a group, showing both the complicity of the group offending as well as
accountability for individual actions.
Matthew Hind, West Midlands Police
Class 4C – ESRI GIS software showcase: Latest developments in CrimeAnalyst and intelligence sharing via InstantAtlas
(G)
At this session, ESRI (UK) will provide a demonstration of the capabilities within CrimeAnalyst 1.5, the latest version of its software now in use by Police
forces and CDRPs across the UK. The showcase is designed to provide an accessible overview to the key features within CrimeAnalyst, including:
 Journey to Crime tools, to identify spatial relationships between crime locations
 Advanced hotspotting supporting line features as well as points
 Contour tools which help identify areas with the same hotspot value
 Sequence tools, helping analysts to quickly link incidents based upon the temporal order in which they occurred
 Calculator tool enabling fast mathematical calculations and month to month comparisons on hotspots
 Data Clocks providing fast and intuitive temporal hotspot analysis
Also showcased at this session will be an overview of InstantAtlas(tm). This unique software enables Crime analysts to create highly interactive web - based
views of their products, combining statistics and GIS data to improve visualisation, enhance communication, and engage people in more informed decision
making. Those looking for a fast and effective means to share intelligence across their force, local authority and with other partners should attend this
session.
Public Safety Team, ESRI (UK)
Class 4D – Crime analysis and crime mapping for managers (B)
Audience: Crime reduction and intelligence profession managers who want to know more about crime analysis and crime mapping; what to ask for and
what to expect from the analysis of place.
This one hour class is divided into five sections as follows:
 A brief introduction to problem solving and analysis (10 minutes)
 The importance of time and place in understanding crime (5 minutes)
 Some UK examples (20 minutes)
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Checklist for your analyst (10 minutes)
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Discussion (10 minutes)
Gloria Laycock, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science and Superintendent Chris Sykes, Greater Manchester Police
Class 4E – Police spatial data accuracy and the National Emergency Services Gazetteer (I)
In the business of GI in the Emergency Services, we all need to know where something takes place. An accurate location will ensure that the Emergency
Service resource is sent to the right place as quickly as possible, and the data for back-office analysis will be relevant & robust. The very fact that a life
could depend on a resource turning up in the right location in the quickest possible time means that whoever has the job of putting the gazetteer together,
needs to include that numerous variables that affects Emergency Response.
Emergency Services receive a variety of calls - some from home addresses - but many from 'non-addressable' locations such as the middle of a street, or
in an obscure car park, or in the middle of a field. Emergency Services are then expected to record an incident along with the necessary spatial information
to inform deployment if required. Occasionally, deployment of resources may be required in a few minutes, so any delay in trying to establish a location
can cause serious consequences. With the increasing numbers of Emergency Services utilizing GPS (either within the Airwave radio terminal or as a
separate device) the importance of have an incident showing in the right location in relation to an accurate GPS signal is paramount for accurate
dispatching and maintaining confidence in the organisations' data by its front line users and back-office analysts.
What would the Emergency Services like to see? One gazetteer dataset that does the job lot - addresses (to include full listings for flats and different
holdings of large buildings such as universities), non-addressable locations (including road segments / junctions & elements such as car parks or landmarks),
Electoral Roll information, business address listings and more...
But creating that gazetteer that contains all the necessary locations required by Emergency Services is no easy task, and some organisations may have
already undertaken some development work of their own to develop a custom solution. At the same time, there are vendors trying to sell various solutions
that may offer increased coverage but does not necessarily conform to a unified solution.
A project to create a National Emergency Services Gazetteer (NESG) has been undertaken by a sub-group of the ACPO GI Management Board. The project
has defined the various additional data that would complete a standard addressable gazetteer, and the progress to date of trying to implement a unified
solution.
The workshop will review the current position with Police gazetteers, using West Yorkshire Police real-life examples. Results of an ACPO questionnaire
regarding gazetteers will be examined, and the workshop attendees will be asked to consider viable options for creating an all encompassing gazetteer,
that would deliver to the needs of the Emergency Services.
Malachi Rangecroft, West Yorkshire Police and the ACPO Geographic Information Management Board
5A Seminar stream - Anti-social behaviour mapping (G) see 2A
5B Seminar stream – Capturing intelligence in the field (I) see 3A
Class 5C - Hotspot analysis using CrimeStat (I)
This class explores the use of CrimeStat for hotspot analysis. Attendees will learn how to examine crime hotspots and shifts in crime over time. The
statistics discussed include the mode, the fuzzy mode, nearest neighbour hierarchical clustering, STAC, K-means, kernel density estimation, and riskadjusted nearest neighbour hierarchical clustering. The focus of the techniques will be on hotspot location, hotspot areas, and hotspot road segments.
Emphasis will be on identifying hotspots and linking them to land uses and, possibly, individual offenders. A brief discussion will be held on spatial-temporal
shifts in hotspots. Examples will be shown of vehicle theft hotspots in a metropolitan area.
Ned Levine, Ned Levine and Associates (Creator of the US National Institute of Justice product CrimeStat)
Class 5D - Using the Neighbourhood Statistics Service to support policing and partnership geographical analysis (G)
The Neighbourhood Statistics website, www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk , enables users to access a range of geographically referenced data. Taken as a
whole these data provide a useful insight into the characteristics of an area be it a Local Authority District or a smaller local community. This session will
provide an overview of the information available including the following topics.
 Super Output Areas – a statistical geography developed after the 2001 Census and the geography used by the majority of Neighbourhood Statistics
data.
 The Neighbourhood Summary – designed for the concerned citizen the summary provides limited information on a number of key themes.
 Statistics for an area –access for more detailed statistics on a range of topics with the ability to chart and map the data.
 The Topics route – the ability to view of download data for the whole of the country.
 The Analysis, Training and Guidance section – designed to support those wishing to use the data this section provides guidance on specific area of
analysis, best practice and case studies.
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Commuterview – an interactive tool which displays flows of commuters who were aged from 16 to 74 and in employment as at Census Day. This
tool helps the user identify areas where there may be significant differences between the resident population and the day time population.
Carolyn Watson, Office for National Statistics
Class 5E – ESRI technical workshop: Time Saver 101 - Automating your crime mapping tasks (G)
In a recent user survey, CrimeAnalyst was found to be saving its users up to 5 hours per week, the equivalent of up to 6 weeks per year, per analyst. In this
workshop, ESRI (UK) will take attendees through the Geoprocessing Framework in ArcGIS that can help users to cut the time they spend on repetitive tasks,
allowing them more time to focus on detailed analysis where it counts.
Covered in this session:
 Saving and re-using queries
 Automating Standard Mapping Tasks with Geoprocessing
 Creating and Editing Geoprocessing Models
 Attendees at this event will also be offered the opportunity to trial ArcGIS and Crime Analyst, allowing them to put the time saving features and
other functionality of the latest CrimeAnalyst software to the test in their own
 offices for a limited period.
This workshop is open to both users and non-users of CrimeAnalyst.
Public Safety Team, ESRI (UK)
6A Seminar stream – The temporal dimension to hotspot analysis (I)
Predicting crime with temporally-sensitive street crime hotspots
Historically crime researchers and police analysts have constructed one-dimensional hotspots as an informal forecasting method. This helps to identify
where crime will concentrate spatially and thus where to direct resources intended to curtail or detect crime. There are concerns though that only looking
for spatial hotspots neglects their second dimension – the temporal variations (McCullagh, 2006). Crime, and fear of crime often has daily as well as
seasonal rhythms. This is a major obstacle for anyone wishing to accurately forecast where crime may occur in the future.
This research used street crime data (e.g. robbery and theft from the person), partitioned into temporal shifts aligned with traditional police working
schedules. These temporally-sensitive hotspots were then tested to ascertain how accurately they predicted future offences compared to traditional onedimensional hotspot maps.
Results indicate that;
 Prediction accuracy improves when using temporally-sensitive hotspot maps (for certain temporal periods such as morning and overnight).
 The temporal parameters chosen can be a key influencing factor in whether prediction accuracy improves – leading to the proposal of a modifiable
temporal unit problem
 Allocating resources on the basis of temporally sensitive hotspots can potentially lead to greater gains in preventing crime (both deterring wouldbe offenders and detecting them).
McCullough, M. (2006). Detecting Hotspots in Time and Space. (Online) Available at:
http://www.isotc211riyadh.org.sa/present/MJM_ISG06_%20Detecting_Hotspots_in_Time_and_Space_High_Quality_Print.pdf
Lisa Tompson, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
Seasonality crime mapping versus chasing hotspots – a comparison of activity directing processes in Birmingham
In 2006 the Birmingham Community Safety Partnership (BCSP) implemented a Tasking and Coordination Group (BTCG) to demonstrate its commitment to
adopting the National Intelligence Model (NIM). In line with NIM the BCSP’s Information and Intelligence Team introduced a bi-weekly tasking document
intended to direct and focus BCSP activity. Towards the end of the year the practitioners within the BCSP’s Local Delivery Groups (LDGs) began reporting
the problem of ‘chasing hotspots’: where the areas identified for activity changed on a monthly basis. Coincidently, work was already underway by the
team’s most senior analyst to marry up hotspot mapping with a control variance model; a fortunate consequence of which could have been a seasonallyreflective predictive map. Within weeks the Information and Intelligence Teams Tasking Document included maps that predicted the high intensity
locations of crime for the following two months. In November 2007 a results analysis focusing on the efficacy of the predictive mapping technique was
conducted using the following methods:
 A visual comparison of the predictive technique with the previous reactive technique.
 A hotspot accuracy index comparison of the predictive technique with the reactive technique, which replicated the method employed by Spencer
Chaney in a presentation, entitled ‘The Utility of Hotspot Mapping for Predicting Where Crime Will Happen Next’ for the UCL Jill Dando Institute for
Crime.
The analysis found that the method of chasing hotspots was more efficacious and produced more accurate results than the method of using historical data
to predict where crime will occur.
Other findings included:
 On average there was little difference in the accuracy when using either 1 month old data or 2 month old data with the reactive technique for all
offence types.
 When using the reactive technique fewer and smaller areas are highlighted as potential hotspots. This should make them more efficient at
allocating resources and prioritising geographic areas compared to the predictive method.
 The reactive method is considerably more accurate at predicting Personal Robbery and Wounding offences compared to the other offences. The
predictive method varied little in accuracy between the offences.
Perhaps the most significant finding is that recent data is more much effective at predicting crime than data covering a couple of years indicating that
simple hotspots maps (such as the kernel density hotspot detective method) more accurately reflect current offenders and offending opportunities.
Ultimately we arrive at the conclusion that chasing hotspots is not necessarily a bad thing. Moreover, this research provided further support for the recent
findings that some crime types are better predicted than others (Chainey et al., 2008). Reference to these maps has been made when successfully directing
resources and in April 2008 the BCSP recorded a 27.2% reduction of BCS recorded crime in Birmingham. The aim of this presentation is to outline the
theory and practice involved in generating seasonally-reflective predictive maps, before evaluating their use in crime analysis in Birmingham.
References Chainey, S., Tompson, L. and Uhlig, S. (2008) The Utility of Hotspot Mapping for Predicting Spatial Patterns of Crime. In Security Journal, 2008,
21, (4-28). Palgrave Macmillan
Michael Mitchell, Birmingham Community Safety Partnership
6B Seminar stream - Developing intelligence using crime mapping (I) see 3B
Class 6C - Prioritising partnership activity through the Simple2start - Pyramid approach (G)
This session will describe a mechanism that has been routinely and successfully focusing the delivery of police / partnership resources / tactics or services
and has gained the Herman Goldstein award for problem solving in 2004. The unit of count is the street rather than the home or person. Initial analysis
showed 1% of streets hosted 10% of vehicle crime and 13% of streets accounted for half of the crime.
Focused services of the police and partnership are then provided to the neediest places from the previous year whilst other rising streets are identified
through a daily routine in order to act with sufficient intensity and over a sufficient period to make a difference. The process aspires to be a basis for
mounting routine problem-directed action by applying a systematic review process and tackling the chronic victimisation that affects the' vital few' (80/20
rule / Pareto principle) victims or 'repeat' / 'near repeat' locations. This makes day to day management more effective all year, irrespective of changing
priorities.
Repeat victimisation in this format complements strategic and tactical thinking. The approach comprises agreed partnership activities, based upon problem
solving analysis, to be delivered at Manageable Intervention Points (MIP's) identified and monitored daily throughout the year. These activities are
classifiable as 'general', 'victim care', 'location change', 'offender management' and 'Recursive Problem Identification'.
Each level is initially identified through the use of an approach hereafter referred to as the 'Simple2start' process and subsequently relies on a crude form
of street based mapping not reliant on specific expertise. The process continues to be successful and attributable to the reduction of car crime and has
been applied to other volume crimes. Routine 'proactive' problem solving, repeat victimisation prevention and partnership motivation are at its heart.
Alan Edmunds, Home Office
Class 6D - Mapping for investigations (I)
The use of maps and analysis within crime investigations, particularly serious and series crime, is ever increasing with investigators looking more and more
to analysts to provide potential solutions to the investigators problem. This class will demonstrate the benefit of producing maps that details the analysis of
temporal and spatial data in graphic form, instead of the usual table, chart or spreadsheet format, and when overlaid with the geography of an area can
help to focus resources and tactics in case specific investigations.
It will use real case examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of these types of maps in explaining the data analysis in a simplistic form and how they were
used to direct the investigation focus. The class will be interactive and will involve audience participation.
Clare Daniell, Senior Geographic Profiler, National Police Improvement Agency
Class 6E - Geographical weighted regression (A)
Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) is a new local modelling technique for analysing spatial analysis. The technique allows local as opposed to global
models of relationships to be measured and mapped. This class will introduce GWR and how it can be used with crime data, and the application of the GWR
software.
Professor A. Stewart Fotheringham, National Centre for Geocomputation, National University of Ireland