INTELLIGENT SUSTAINABILITY:
ICT’s Potential Contribution
STEPHEN HARPER
GLOBAL DIRECTOR
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT POLICY
MAY 2011
You Need to Have a Smart Society
To Have a Sustainable Society
If consumption trends
continue,
we will need two Earths
to support us
Smart behaviors get
us here
Source: Global Footprint Network
Technology and Carbon Emissions
Drive Computing
to Be More
Energy Efficient
~2% Opportunity
Use Computing to
Improve Energy Savings
Outside Information and
Communications
Technology
98% = The Big Opportunity
Aggregate Demand for Computing
Accelerating
70x1018
Transistors Shipped
Per Year
60x1018
2000-2010:
50x1018
68% CAGR
80x1018
40x1018
transistors shipped
in 2010
OR
30x1018
10 Billion
20x1018
transistors
10x1018
per person on earth
0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: Intel/WSTS
4
74.5
Quintillion
Compared to the First Billion PCs Installed
The Next Connected 2 Billion PCs Will…
Compute
Capacity
…consume half the energy of 1st billion PCs
To Build
Smarter
…deliver 17x the computational capacity
Societies
2 Billion PCs
1Billion PCs
Energy
320 TeraWatt-hr
Compute
Capacity
½
17x
Energy
Compute
Capacity
151 TeraWatt-hr
2007
2014
1 Billion PCs Installed Base
2 Billion PCs Installed Base
Source: Intel Microprocessor Marketing and Business Planning, and Intel iAG/PCCA
Power Initiative team, PBCA-PPM
The Micro Story at the Microprocessor Level
1978
2008
Energyefficiency
Improvement
14.3 miles
per gallon of
gas
20.0 miles
per gallon of
gas
40 percent
22.8 revenue
passenger
miles
per gallon
0.63 units of
output per
unit
of energy use
50.4 revenue
passenger
miles
per gallon
121 percent
1.46 units of
output per
unit
of energy use
132 percent
Steel
Manufacturin
g
63 pounds of
steel per MBtu
167 pounds of
steel per MBtu
167 percent
Lighting
Incandescent
light bulb— 13
lumens per
watt
Computer
Systems
1,400
instructions
per second
per watt
Automobiles
Passenger
Airlines
Agriculture
Compact
flourescent
bulb—
57 lumens per
watt
40,000,000
Instructions
per second
per watt
339 percent
2,857000
percent
6
Source: “A Smarter Shade of Green,” ACEEE Report for the Technology CEO Council, 2008.
The Micro Story at the System Level
Estimated Annual Energy Consumption
1200
1015
KWh Consumed per Year
(lower is better)
1000
938
800
655
Going
Mobile
600
400
229
200
0
>17x Reduction
Unmanaged Pentium® Unmanaged Pentium®
Dual Processor 945
Dual Processor 945
with CRT display
with LCD display
Unmanaged Core™2
Duo Processor E6550
with LCD display
59
Managed Core™2 Duo Managed Core™2 Duo
Processor E6550 with
Processor T7700
LCD display
mobile platform
For system configuration details, please see Appendix on page 49.
Performance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the
approximate performance of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or
software design or configuration may affect actual performance. This data may vary from other material
generated for specific marketing requests.
Technology and Carbon Emissions
Drive Computing
to Be More
Energy Efficient
~2% Opportunity
– the “micro story”
Use Computing to
Improve Energy Savings
Outside Information and
Communications
Technology
98% = The Big Opportunity
- The “macro story”
“Macro Story” Evidence
 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) studied
this issue and concluded:
– ICT seen as a major factor in improving energy efficiency of US economy during
the Internet era
– “For every extra Kwh of electricity that has been demanded by ICT, the
US economy increased its overall energy savings by a factor of about
10…” (2008)
 The Climate Group and the “Global e-Sustainability Initiative”
published a report entitled, “Smart 2020: Enabling the Low Carbon
Economy in the Information Age” (2008), concluding:
– Smart 2020 concludes that ICT strategies could reduce up to 15%
percent of global emissions in 2020 against a “business as usual”
baseline
 US Addendum to Smart 2020 report, prepared by Boston Consulting
Group indicates that ICT strategies could reduce US carbon
emissions by up to 22 percent by 2020 vs. business-as-usual
 TAKE AWAY: ICT strategies offer huge potential for addressing
climate challenge BUT there is a huge gap between actual
performance (ACEEE) and potential (Smart 2020)
9
Macro Story – Increasing the EE of Other Sectors
Automation
Substitution
De-Materialization
Industrial Robots
Video Conferencing
Logistics for
Transportation
Online Entertainment
Converting Atoms
to Bits
e-Commerce
On-line Banking
LEED Certified
Buildings
Paperless Office
Digital Media Content
Smart Motors
Smart Power Delivery
The “Cloud” as an Energy Efficiency Driver
 The Data Center and the network is
at the center of the “macro story”
 The Carbon Disclosure Project
(CDP) commissioned Verdantix to
examine the impact of a broad US
roll-out of Cloud Computing, based
on extrapolation from existing case
studies:
–
–
–
–
Huge CO2 emissions reductions
Huge financial savings
Strong positive financial ROI
Indirect benefits from increased
business process efficiencies and
organizational flexibility
SOURCE: The Carbon Disclosure Project/Verdantix: Cloud Computing: The IT
Solution for the 21st Century
Closing the Actual-to-Potential Gap
Requires Smart Public Policies
 The full potential of ICT NOT realized due to a variety of
market failures:
–
–
–
–
Lack of information re potential of various technologies
“Principal/agent” issues
High upfront costs
Perceived small size of individual savings
 These failures can only be overcome through smart
policies, including:
– Developing a National Strategy or “Roadmap” to guide policy
direction
– Lead by example – Federal/state governments are the biggest
landowners, employers, vehicle fleet operators, etc.
– Broadband, broadband, broadband
– Establish incentives and rewards for investments in EE ICT
12
12
A Few Words About Broadband
 The International Telecommunications Union’s (ITU)
Broadband Commission recently released its report, “The
Broadband Bridge: Linking ICT with Climate Action for a
Low-Carbon Economy”
 This report highlights the central role of more and faster
broadband to realizing the promise of “Green by IT” or the
“macro story”:
– Climate mitigation via transformational changes in the economy
via the dematerialization of physical products and systems (travel
substitution and e-products and services) as well as smarter
buildings, transport and systems
– Climate adaptation via enabling more and better climate modeling,
weather information and disaster-response capabilities
Water Utility Infrastructure
 Leaks, drips and theft cost global water utilities ~$14B per year
 Utilities want “neural networks for water”
sensors, networks, controllers, models, applications & visualization
 Holy grail for water quality monitoring is general-purpose, in
situ, real-time sensing
EMBEDDED DEVICES
SERVERS AND SOFTWARE
Use and quality data
Visualization
Leak detection
Remote control
Sensors/
Controllers
Modeling & Analytics
APPLICATIONS
Metering/
Billing
Operations/
Maintenance
Planning
WaterMatch
Industrial
and
Municipal
Users log in
by
providing
brief
information
Public can
search for
WWTPs by
location
and
distance
15
Large-scale participatory simulation of the Chesapeake Bay watershed as complex
system
Players take roles of key stakeholders, such as farmers, developers, watermen, and
policy-makers; make decisions based on real-world data; and see the impact of
these decisions on each other and the watershed over a twenty-year period
Developed by multi-disciplinary faculty and student team; hailed by federal and
state agency, private sector, NGO, and education leaders as the “first of its kind”
Innovative tool for multi-sector stakeholder engagement, capacity building for the
collaborative governance of natural resources, and the testing of new policies,
products, and services
Now completing Bay Game Global, a generalizable platform for global watershed
simulation
www.uvabaygame.org
Digital Energy and Sustainability
Solutions Campaign (DESSC)
 DESSC is:
– Coalition of industry, research organizations, NGOs
– Advance policies to drive sustainable growth through ICT enabled
energy efficiency and clean energy innovation
 DESSC affiliates or partners in:
–
–
–
–
–
DESC US
DESC China
EU (ICT4EE Forum)
DESC India
Japan (Green IT Promotion Council)
 Established great website as macro story portal:
– http://www.digitalenergysolutions.org/
17
DESSC-US Partners
*ITI serves as the host organization for
DESC
DESC China Partners
19
DESC China report “ICT Promoting China Low
Carbon Development” Promotion
• Share with government
agencies, MIIT, NDRC, AQSIQ
and others;
• Promotion campaign with
publishing on about 270
websites;
•
Listed Top in Google and
Baidu with searching word as
“ICT” and “Low Carbon”;
• Good feedback from multi
channel.
20
UN Sustainable Energy for All
 In 2011, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launched a new
initiative, Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), which will
engage governments, private sector, and civil society to
achieve 3 major targets by 2030:
–
–
–
–
Achieving universal access to modern energy services
Doubling energy efficiency
Doubling energy efficiency
Doubling the share of global energy generated from renewable sources
 SE4All features a heavy emphasis on private sector
engagement and partnerships across sectors and across
governments/civil society
 UN developing ‘best practices’ guidance for different industry
sectors
– ICT guidance focuses heavily on implementing Green by ICT and the macro story
Intel Sustainable & Connected Cities Institute
The Concept: driving the computing continuum
and inventing the city of the future
The Testbed: London
The Opportunity




he World-Class Research Universities: UCL & UCI
Intel Confidential
Create sustainable future city vision
City of London offering test bed access
Two world-class universities joining forces
to lead the initiative
Partnership with other fellow travellers
ISCCI Application Areas
1.
Compute Continuum & Ubiquitous Information Access
2.
Asset management
a.
b.
c.
d.
Utilities (Energy, Water, Sewage)
Transport
Services (Police, Fire, Ambulance)
Environment
3.
Intelligent Buildings and Urban Spaces
4.
Community Wellbeing
5.
City Security and Disaster Response