Systems Thinking
Prof Roger Maull
Innovation and Service Research
University of Exeter
r.s.maull@ex.ac.uk
Innovation and
Service Research


Using systems theory to underpin service
research (Information Processing)
Service systems design
• Technical and experiential aspects.
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Research on
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Linking customer satisfaction/loyalty and BPM
Business process architectures
Importance of variety in process design
Process re-design guidelines
5 components of BPM
Impact of capacity on systems performance
Complex service systems
Agenda
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
Why systems thinking is needed
Systems Thinking
• Reductionism

Systems Approaches
• SoSM
• SSM/SD


Ashby LRV
Lumpers or Splitters
Why Systems?

Managerial control
problem
Incentives problem
Staffing problem
Boundary problem

No problem ‘phone hacking is not



company practice’
Reductionism
Breaking problems down into their
component parts
Analysis


•
BUT
Derives an explanation of the whole from an
explanation of the parts
Assumptions
1.
2.
3.
4.
Weak connections. Law of unintended
consequences
The relationship between the parts must
be linear so that the parts can be summed
together to make the whole. Non-linearity,
time delays
Optimising each part will optimise the
whole. Theory of second best
Closed system
Systems Thinking
the central concept of a system embodies the idea of a set
of elements connected together which form a whole this
showing properties which are properties of the whole
rather than properties of its component parts.
(Checkland 1981)
the relationships between the elements are just if not more
important than the elements themselves the
interconnections, the compatibility the effect of one upon
the other…...must receive more attention that the parts
(Forrester 1956 p 6)
Types of System
1.
Natural Systems;
hierarchy of physical systems which make up the
universe, (atoms, plants……)
2.
Designed Physical Systems;
these systems occur because they have been
designed, (bridge or an automated decision system)
3.
Designed Abstract systems;
Checkland calls the ordered conscious product of the
mind. Examples include mathematics or language or
philosophy.
4.
Human Activity Systems
;
*Socio-Technical System
These consist of people carrying out purposeful activity
.
Systems thinking
What is a system?
How does it behave?
Open systems
Tradition
Cybernetics
Communication, Control
Emergence, Hierarchy
Management Systems
Epistemology
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Systems are encountered everywhere in
the universe (Wu)
We constantly encounter and participate in
numerous forms of systems (Smith).
Out there to be discovered. OR
Heuristic device, a mental tool to aid in
discovery (Weinberg)
Systems Thinking
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
Problem contexts become more difficult to
manage as they exhibit greater complexity,
change and diversity, arising from two sources:
Systems – as they become larger and subject to
more turbulence
• (simple to complex)

Participants – (those with an interest in the
problem situation) as their values beliefs and
interests start to diverge
• (unitary to pluralistic to coercive)
Systems Thinking Approaches
unitary
Participants
pluralist
Simple / unitary
simple / pluralist
coercive
simple / coercive
simple
Hard Systems
Operations
Research
Systems
Emancipatory
Thinking:
Soft
Systems
Systems Dynamics
Approaches
complex
Organisational
Post Modern
Cybernetics
Complexity theory
Complex / unitary
complex / pluralist
complex / coercive
Analysis based on M.C. Jackson’s System of System Methodologies
Systems Dynamics
Causal Loop Diagram - impact on an
NHS hospital system of medical
admission rate and availability of
continuing care
Income
+
GP referral rate
emergency
admission rate
+ Planned financial
surplus
-
Admission to
medical beds rate
Costs
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
ED occupancy
MAU occupancy
Risk of not meeting
+
+
4 hr target
+
medical bed
occupancy
+
Cash Releasing
Efficiency Savings
+
+
MAU diversion to
ED rate
Availability of continuing
care (NHS or Social)
Length of Stay
+
Balancing
Feedback Loop
Bala
ncin
g
feed
back
loop
+
+
Request extra
ward rounds
+
Use of temporary
inpatient beds
+
number of medical
outliers
Medical
Discharge Rate
-
Risk of breaching
RTT targets
+
Risk of cancelling
elective patients
+
Batching of work
+
Surgical bed
occupancy +
+ + + +
+
Staff workload
+
Staff fatigue
+
Risk of harm to +
patients
SSM
Learn about a problem situation
Formulate purposeful activity
models
Debate the situation using the
models
1.
2.
3.
•
•
4.
Desirable and culturally feasible
Accommodations between
conflicting interests
Take action to improve
HOW DOES AN OPEN SYSTEM
BEHAVE?
Variety
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Ashby’s law of requisite variety
D
D
T
T
R
E
E
Variety
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How much variety does a service process*
have to absorb?
• What is the input?
• How much variety is there?
• What are the different types?
•
•
Service processes have a significant customer input (Sampson
UST)
4 types, customer self, mind, information and belongings
Types of variety?
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What variability?

http://www.youtub
e.com/watch?v=6
wtfNE4z6a8
Everyone wants
something
different

Types of Variability (Frei)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Arrival, customers arrive at different times
Request, customers want different things
Capability, the capability of the customer
involved in producing the service
Effort, how much effort the customer puts in
Subjective preference – customers opinion on
Volume
the service experience
If we have variability we need to know how much
Why?
Qualities of “variety”*
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Simple count of states
Actual time of disturbance
Frequency of occurrence of each state
Spread / Closeness of states
Impact of each state
* Capri conference paper
The disturbance model
Qualities
Components
Arrival Volume
Arrival time
Requests made
by/for customers
Capability of
customer to do
Effort customer
willing to exert
Subjective
preference for how
delivered
Variety as a count:
how many different
states can
dimension be in
Real time –
when does
the
disturbance
occur
Frequency
Spread of
of
states
occurrence
of each state
Impact of
each state
Useful things
about ‘systems thinking’

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Systemic concepts eg boundary,
Weltanschauung, relationships, control, systemic
concepts
It doesn’t arbitrarily split things up
• Conforms more closely to problems of the ‘real world’
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Checkland’s, what? how? why?
• System in focus ±1
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Systems thinkers have a problem with
cause/effect
Tricky things
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Its a great idea but its hard
Systems journals are 1-2*, soft OR does
get published in 3-4*
Doesn’t build theory
• Is it ‘a theory’? (it doesn’t say if this then this)
Issues

Advice, buy a copy, read it, let it influence
you BUT don’t build your research on it

Recognise you have ‘reduced’, make that
clear, consider the limitations

Are you a lumper or a splitter?