9/26/2011
Internet Data Tsunami
Christoph Legutko
Wireless Standards and Regulations Manager
Intel Corporation, Global Public Policy
Chisinau, 0303-05.10.2011
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9/26/2011
Outline
What is Broadband?
User experience
Broadband, GDP and limits of growth
Improving of regulatory environment
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What is Broadband?
Download:
Google home page (160 KB)
ITU home page (750KB)
56kbps
(dial-up)
256kbps
23 seconds
5 seconds
107 seconds 23 seconds
2Mbps
40Mbps
100Mbps
0.64 seconds
0.03 seconds
0.01 seconds
3 seconds
0.15 seconds
0.06 seconds
5MB music track
12 minutes
3 minutes
20 seconds
1 second
0.4 seconds
20MB video clip
48 minutes
10 minutes
1 minute
4 seconds
1.6 seconds
28 hours
6 hours
47 minutes
2 minutes
56 seconds
1 week
1.5 days
4.5 hours
13 minutes
5 minutes
CD / low quality movie (700MB)
DVD / standard quality movie (4GB)
Broadband is speed!!
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9/26/2011
Applications towards the Yottabyte Era
Source:
Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010,
http://www.chetansharma.com/Managing_Growth_and_Profits_in_the_Yottabyte_Era_Second_Edition.pdf
bandwidth/
application
Digital Cinema
Blue Ray
BANDWIDTH
WLAN
games
EBay
Enterprises
HD video
video
Google Earth
Home office
DVD
Google
Video SKYPE
banking
CD
WiMAX, LTE
music
SKYPE
LNA/file transfer
computer
Voice/SMS
Voice/SMS
UMTS
Voice/SMS
Voice/SMS
telecom
1990
2000
more data
HSPA
2012
Applications are pushing broadband speed requirements
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Applications Drive Bandwidth Consumption
Average Smartphone user on a 3G Network
=
Average iPhone user in NY and San Francisco
Watch DVD quality movie on Netflix.com
(2)
=
=
Upload 5 minute SD video clip to Facebook 10X
Sync photos with your Nikon SLR and Flickr
=
=
800 MByte/month
4.7 Giga Bytes
=
Listen 30 minutes a day of Pandora
Watch 30 minutes daily sitcom using Hulu HD
400 MByte/month
1.2 Giga Bytes/month
5.8 Giga Bytes/month
=
1.2 Giga Bytes
5 Giga Bytes
18,7 GByte is the average user’s “consumption”/ month in 2010
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9/26/2011
Cisco Forecasts 6.3 Exabytes per Month
of Mobile Data Traffic by 2015
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html
Mobile Traffic by device type
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html
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9/26/2011
Consumer Experience
Correlation of speed/latency with
consumption for smart phones in USA
User expectation:
high data transfer speed together with low latency generate traffic
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Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010, http://www.chetansharma.com/Managing_Growth_and_Profits_in_the_Yottabyte_Era_Second_Edition.pdf
Mobile World Follows Wireline
Broadband penetration and traffic for Wireline and Mobile data networks in the US (1996(1996-2014)
CONSUMPTION SHOTSHOT-UP
UP::
transfer speed and latency are the criteria
for increasing popularity of smartphones
smartphones,, tablets, laptops etc.
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Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010, http://www.chetansharma.com/Managing_Growth_and_Profits_in_the_Yottabyte_Era_Second_Edition.pdf
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9/26/2011
100++ Mbps connectivity
is needed for good user experience
OK
I’ll do something else in between
Let’s go for coffee
Max speed
Needs to happen in the background or over night
FIXED
16 s
ADSL
1 Mbit/s
ADSL
6 Mbit/s
Ethernet
5s
0.3 s
100 Mbit/s
18 hrs
3 hrs
WIRELESS
WLAN
5 min
16 s
2 Mbit/s
9 hrs
2s
14 Mbit/s
0.3 s
108 Mbit/s
1s
10 s 1 min
44 hrs
1 hr
6 hrs
10 min
. . . 1 hour
ACTION
Transfer
picture
5.0 Mpixel (jpeg)
4 MBytes
1 hr
1 min
Gigabit ethernet 1000 Mbit/s
3,5 G Cellular
15 hrs
11 min
0.03 s
3G Cellular
89 hrs
Download
DVD movie
8 GBytes
Download
HDTV movie
40 GBytes
1 hr
10 hours
...
Time
Scale illustrative
7s = valuable time for person to wait
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Broadband Quality Score (BQS)
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9/26/2011
Broadband Quality Score (BQS)
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Research evidence of broadband impact on GDP growth
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Only broadband contributes significantly
to economical growth of mature economies
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9/26/2011
Physical limits to grow
Physical limits of already existing infrastructures are already achieved:
Copper pair
VDSL with ~50 Mbit
Mbit/s
/s individual per household
Coax
DOCSIS 3.0 with ~400 Mbit
Mbit/s
/s shared per cable branch (with 10 users)
Wireless
HSPA+ with ~21 Mbit
Mbit/s
/s shared per cell
The next significant step of at least 10x improvement is nedded:
nedded:
Optical Fibre everywhere and radio with small cells
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This growth requires policies that
• Enable Innovation
• Promote Competition
• Allow sustainable operator business models
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9/26/2011
Digging challenges
Laying on OF cable is too expensive for stock noted companies:
markets do not work properly on infrastructures
Raisin picking – OF only for urban areas
Old fashioned regulatory framework:
virtual unbundling - confrontation instead of cooperation
Europe needs new regulatory solutions to accelerate
2020: >50% of households with >100 Mbit/s
Mbit/s
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Unbundling
• FCC refrains from imposing Section 251 unbundling
obligations on new last mile broadband facilities, including
fiber and DSL electronics deployed on the customer side of
the central office.
• Continue to require incumbent local exchange carriers
(ILECs) to provide collocation space and unbundled access
to the legacy copper facilities
Old Wires- old rules, new wires- new rules
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Technology & Service Neutrality
• Freedom to deploy any technology, subject to
minimal technical and service restrictions
• Enables market forces to drive best solutions to
benefit of citizens
Chicken and egg dilemma
Telecommunication
Chicken first - Eggs later:
1844 – first telegraph line between Washington and Baltimore
then exciting services and applications have been developed
Automobile industry
Eggs first - Chicken later:
1886 – Carl Benz got patent for a car with combustion motor then
the roads have been constructed to enable that beautiful driving
Networks always enable applications
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9/26/2011
Conclusions
• Broadband traffic is exploding
• Europe is reluctant to invest in broadband infrastructure
• Europe should continue reshaping the regulatory framework
• Technology & Service Neutrality is the key
• Old WiresWires- old rules, new wireswires- new rules
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Thank You
Christoph Legutko
Global Public Policy CEE Director
Intel Corporation
Global Public Policy
EMEA Communications Policy Team
Email:
Mobile:
Telephone:
URL:
christoph.legutko@intel.com
+49 171 55 202 43
+49 89 99143 0
www.intel.eu
Mailing address:
Intel GmbH; Dornacher Strasse 1; 85622 Feldkirchen/München; Germany
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