Broadband statistics
and
customer expectations
Christoph Legutko
Wireless Standards and Regulations Manager
Intel Corporation, Global Public Policy
Chisinau, 04.05.2010
Broadband future:
1 Billion “Connected Mobile Clients” in 5 Years
Core Business
Client PCs
Windows, Mac OS
Strategic Growth Areas
CE
(Internet)
Mobile
Internet
Devices
Low-Cost
PCs
Embedded
Microsoft Windows / MeeGo Linux-based OS / Services Port of Choice
One Architecture Across Multiple Mobile Client Platforms
Source: Intel
PC access to the internet:
mobile overtook desktop …
MU
400
Notebook
Desktop
300
200
100
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Forecast
Source: Gartner, Q1’09
… And mobile PCs will be
connected to the Internet
M Units
% WAN
Percent Connected to WAN
Notebook
Netbook
WAN Connection is Essential
Source: In-Stat . ABI & Intel Internal Estimates, 1H’09
… And These New Devices and Applications
Are Rapidly Overloading Existing Networks
Commerce
Information
Productivity
Entertainment
Medical
Communication
Education
“Watching a YouTube video on a smartphone can use the same capacity on the
network as sending 500,000 text messages simultaneously.”
02 technology Chief Derek McManus
How Will Operators Meet Demand?
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth
TB/mo.
Independent research firm tests showed an average
speed of 3.8 Mbps for downloads and 1.7 Mbps for
uploads for the Portland, OR Clearwire network1, four
times as fast as current 3G networks.2
2,500,000
2,000,000
The problem with 3G is in the air and the backhaul.
The network was built for narrow band and now
users are downloading video on iPlayer, on what is
essentially a voice network. In London my calls
have started dropping and on the motorway my
phone drops between cells.3
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, July 2009. Forecast, 2008 -2013
[1] Signals Ahead Research, Volume 5, No. 11, 9 September, 2009.
[2] Saul Hansell, Sprint Banks on WiMax to Win Back Market Share, New York Times, 27September 2009
[3] “U.S. 3G Networks Deliver Less Than Expected,” Phillip Redman, Gartner Research, 22 January 2009.
Mobile Voice
vs.
Mobile Internet
Traffic Equivalents*
1 Smartphone = 30
Handsets
1 Laptop = 450 Handsets
~ 10 Kbps Constant Rate
A network optimized for mobile
voice cannot handle high numbers
of mobile internet users
1-5 Mbps Burst Traffic
More Spectrum Needed
More Backhaul And Different Network Architecture Required
Mobile Internet Requires a Technology Revolution
* Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, July 2009
Data Traffic is Taking Over Voice Networks
Percentage of Overall Traffic
100%
80%
DATA
60%
40%
VOICE
20%
0%
2006
2007
2008
Source: Cisco
2009
2010
2011
Enabling new mobile broadband experience
3G PC Data Usage
WiMAX Data Usage
40%
500MB10GB/mo.
<20%
25%
>10GB / mo.
>3GB/mo.
• Data usage expands when true broadband becomes available
• WiMAX capable of providing primary broadband, not just mobile
• 3G cost/bit and performance unable to meet BB experience expectations
3G Source: Major 3G service provider, June 2009
WiMAX Source: Major WiMAX service provider, June 2009
Customer expectations
Applications
bandwidth/
application
Digital Cinema
Blue Ray
video
WLAN
games
EBay
Google Earth
Enterprises
HD video
Home office
DVD
Google
banking
CD
Video SKYPE
WiMAX
music
SKYPE
LNA/file transfer
computer
Voice/SMS
Voice/SMS
Voice/SMS
UMTS
Voice/SMS
more data
HSPA
telecom
1990
2000
computer applications drive bandwidth demand
2012
New Applications Drive Bandwidth Consumption
400 MByte/month
Average Smartphone user on a 3G Network
Average iPhone user in NY and San Francisco
(2)
Watch DVD quality movie on Netflix.com
Listen 30 minutes a day of Pandora
Watch 30 minutes daily sitcom using Hulu HD
Upload 5 minute SD video clip to Facebook 10X
Sync photos with your Nikon SLR and Flickr
800 MByte/month
4.7 Giga Bytes
1.2 Giga Bytes/month
5.8 Giga Bytes/month
1.2 Giga Bytes
5 Giga Bytes
average user’s byte “consumption”/ month
100++ Mbps wireless connectivity is needed
for good user experience
OK
I’ll do something else in between
Let’s go for coffee
Max speed
Needs to happen in the background or over night
FIXED
16 s
ADSL
1 Mbit/s
ADSL
6 Mbit/s
Ethernet
5s
0.3 s
100 Mbit/s
18 hrs
3 hrs
WIRELESS
3,5 G Cellular
14 Mbit/s
WLAN
5 min
16 s
9 hrs
2s
0.3 s
108 Mbit/s
1s
20 s 1 min
44 hrs
1 hrs
6 hrs
10 min
. . . 1 hour
ACTION
Transfer
picture
5.0 Mpixel (jpeg)
4 MBytes
1 hrs
1 min
Gigabit ethernet 1000 Mbit/s
2 Mbit/s
15 hrs
11 min
0.03 s
3G Cellular
89 hrs
Download
DVD movie
8 GBytes
Download
HDTV movie
40 GBytes
1 hrs
10 hours
...
Time
Scale illustrative
7s = valuable time for person to wait
Thank You