ITU/ BDT «Training and Trials on Network
Planning Tools for Evolving Network Architectures»
Architectures»
June 44-8 2007
Moscow, Russian Federation
Role of Network Planning Tools and Cases
Oscar González Soto
ITU Consultant Expert
Strategic Planning and Assessment
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 1
Network Planning Tools
Content
• Network planning process and domains
• Objectives and classification for the different tool types
• Overall techno-economical evaluation
• Network design and optimization
• Detailed design and configuration
• Network evaluation and simulation
• Example of business cases
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 2
Network Planning Tools
Network Planning: Related Processes
Business
Planning
Network
Planning
Strategic
Network/business
Planning
Long Term
Structural
Planning
Short/Medium
Term
Planning
Network
Network
Support
Processes
Customer
Care &
Billing ...
Management
Network
Traffic & QoS
Measurement ...
The Network
June 2007
slide 3
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools
Integrated Iterative Planning Process
Analysis of
Initial Context
Business
Assessments
Generation
of
Competitive
Scenarios
(Inputs)
Traffic Demand
Forecasting
Network Design
& Configuration
Business &
Financial Planning
Technical
and
Economic
Results
(Outputs)
Procedures and Tools
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 4
Network Planning Tools
Strategic view: Network Layer Modeling
IP
VoIP
SMP
SCP
Service and Control level
Voice MailTVoDSL
VOD
UMS
e-applications
IMS
IN
HLR/AuC TSC
EIR
SSW
BTS
SSP
MSC
TEX
SSP
Int’l
BSC
POP/LEX
WLL/Mobile
GW
Fixed NB/BB
DATA/IP
LL
NGN network
Functional level
Transport/SDH/WDM
Infrastructure and Cable level
June 2007
slide 5
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools
Planning domains
Fixed
FixedAccess
Access
Planning
Planning
Access
Accessradio
radio
planning
planning
Business
BusinessPlanning
Planning
Core
Coreradio
radio
planning
planning
June 2007
Fixed
FixedSwitching
Switching
and
and
routing
routingplanning
planning
Transmission
Transmission
planning
planning
IT,
IT,OSS,
OSS,IMS
IMSand
and
Applications
Applicationsplanning
planning
Signaling and
control planning
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 6
Network Planning Tools:
Tools:
Tool categories by coverage and detail
Network Design and Optimization
Detailed Design and Configuration
+ Network coverage
+ Level of detail
Overall techno-economical evaluation
Analysis and Simulation
June 2007
slide 7
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools:
Tool categories by coverage
Overall technoeconomical
evaluation
Multilayer,
Multitechnology
Optimization
Detailed Design and
Configuration
Network coverage
Level of detail
Design and
Analysis and
Simulation
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Specific methods for given
Network segment, and/or
Technology
Detailed algorithms for
a given system family
Performance evaluation for a
given system/configuration
slide 8
Network Planning Tools
Support tools: Business
• Required functionality for Business tools in NGN
- Service Demand Projection
- Dynamic modeling for technology substitution and migration rates
- Dimensioning multiple flows (circuit and packet modes)
- Evaluation of network resources and associated investment
(CAPEX)
- Evaluation of revenues for given tariffs and installation rate
- Modeling multiple resource lifetimes
- Modeling of demand elasticity to tariffs
- Interrelation between network growth and operational cost (OPEX)
- Cost assignment as a function of utilization rates
- Generation of standard financial results like Cash Flow, Profit &
Loss, Balance Sheet, NPV, IRR, etc.
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 9
Network Planning Tools
Support tools: Design and Optimization (I)
• Required functionality for Technical design tools in NGN
– Service demands characterization and traffics for VoIP and NGN
multiservice flows
– Conceptual Network Design and Capacity Planning
– Comparison of different network structures
– Routing flows for most typical cases including OSPF, shortest path,
widest path and weighted cost functions.
– Optimizing locations and connections of network gateways
– Cost, Performance and Reliability Analysis
– Estimation of investment costs for the rollout and the extension of the
investigated multi-service network
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 10
Network Planning Tools
Support tools: Design and Optimization (II)
• Required functionality for Technical design tools in
NGN
– Estimation of end-to-end delays
– Technical Site and System Planning
– Allocation of the IP or MPLS links
– Formation of virtual networks
– Routing over ATM links or PDH/SDH systems or tunneling via other
IP links
– Sub-networking and addressing
– Configuring the network elements (IP router)
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 11
Network Planning Tools
Example of Strategy Business Case
Operator needs to decide and evaluate market
position on services:
• Specific strategy to ensure survivability in competition in a
“medium –developing” country
• What customer classes to serve
• What service categories to address
• What are the business impacts due to different combinations of
services
• What-if analysis for business at Short-term view and Long-term view
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 12
Network Planning Tools
Example of Strategy Business Case
Case study for medium size country with mixes of customer classes
and triple play services domains:
– Multi-service IP Network with integrated operation available
– Three customer classes considered: Business, SOHO/SME and
Residential
– Three service categories to analyze: Voice, Data/Internet, IPTV
– Scenario considering the modeling of demands, multi-service traffic
flows, dimensioning, network resources, CAPEX, OPEX and financial
results for different levels of competition
– Evaluate future Net Present Value (NPV) for a 10 years period
June 2007
slide 13
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools
Example of Strategy Business Case
Effects of the mix of customers on Reference Scenario: Low competition level
Network NPV
8e+08
7e+08
Euro
6e+08
5e+08
SOHO and
Small
Enterprise
4e+08
All
Segments
(reference)
3e+08
Residential
2e+08
1e+08
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
0e+08
-1e+08
•
June 2007
Year
SME and SOHO with quicker recovery but less NPV and company value at
medium term
• “All customer segments” case with much better behavior
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 14
Network Planning Tools
Example of Strategy Business Case
Effects of the mix of services on Reference Scenario: Low competition level
Network NPV
7e+08
6e+08
Internet
5e+08
Euro
4e+08
Internet &
VoDSL
3e+08
Internet &
Video
2e+08
All
Services
(reference)
1e+08
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
0e+08
-1e+08
-2e+08
•
Year
Major impact of service classes on NPV and company survivability
• Single service classes without future
• High benefit of “all services” case
June 2007
slide 15
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools
Example of Strategy Business Case
Effects of the mix of services on typical scenario: Medium competition level
Network NPV
5e+08
4e+08
Internet
Euro
3e+08
Internet &
VoDSL
2e+08
Internet &
Video
1e+08
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
0e+08
Y9
Y10
All
Services
(reference)
-1e+08
-2e+08
•
June 2007
Year
Increase of competition level amplifies the previous effects on feasibility: big
differences between service mixes
• Data only or single service classes without feasibility at medium term
• Very robust behavior for the “all services” case
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 16
Network Planning Tools
Example of Strategy Business Case
Lessons to care
• The mix of customer classes and service provided have a high
impact on the business results at medium and long term
• Addressing all service categories provides more robust financial
behavior that service subsets
• Business customers provide quickest rate of return but highest
number of residential customers higher capability to increase volume
at long term
• Service convergence will improve economies of scale and
survivability in a competitive environment
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 17
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Operator needs to model and evaluate evolution of
mobile network:
• Migration strategy from a 2G network towards a 3G solution in a
“medium–developing” country
• How to model and dimension the mix of voice and data services
• What is the impact of new services on the network design, bandwidth
requirements and quality
• What are the consequences on CAPEX, OPEX and Revenues due to
new services
• What-if analysis for business at Short-term view and Long-term view
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 18
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Case study for a country with existing 2G with medium
penetration level
• Country with a typical mix of urban, suburban, rural and hot-spots
geo-scenarios
• Installed GSM network with 90% of territory covered and customers
penetration of 30%
• New customers expected to duplicate in the study period
• Migration period planned to be completed in 5 years
• Differentiation in the modeling of customer traffic and dimensioning
per geo-scenario
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 19
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Multicriteria Dimensioning principles for multimedia services
C1) - Radio Coverage per frequency type: 900, 1800, 2500: dominant for
low voice traffic without data.
C2) - Traffic in erlangs for voice: dominant in urban scenarios and hotspots
C3) - Data services quality as a function of speeds: dominant in suburban
and rural scenarios
C4) - Data bandwidth as a function of mix of data services Sustained Bit
Rates and QoS along the cell due to the cell-breathing effect: dominant
for significant proportion of data and video consumption in all scenarios
Actual dimensioning for cells and equipment as a result of the
convolution of all of them per geo-scenario
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 20
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Network Systems Modeling for the migration
– Customer Segments (business, residential) and Services (Voice and
Data low/medium/high speed)
– Sites and Base Stations at Urban, Suburban, Rural and Hot spots
– Backhaul per geo-scenario
– Core Network with the specific network elements in the architecture
– Transport for voice, circuit mode data and packet mode data
– Interconnection for voice and data
June 2007
slide 21
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Evaluated architectures
Applications
SS7
Network
HLR
BTS
RNC
MSC
SGSN
PSTN/IP/NGN
Network
GGSN
GPRS
GWs
BTS
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
NMC
slide 22
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Typical planning results
Service Demand for voice - Busy-Hour Traffic
70.000
Erlangs
60.000
50.000
UMTS voice
Res.
40.000
GSM voice Res.
30.000
UMTS voice Bus.
20.000
GSM voice Bus.
10.000
0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Year
June 2007
slide 23
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Typical planning results
Resource Capital Expenditure
1.2e+08
1e+08
GSM base stations
US $
8e+07
UMTS base stations
6+07
UMTS carriers
GSM TRXs
4e+07
2e+07
0e+07
Y1
Y3
Y5
Y7
Y9
Year
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 24
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Typical planning results
Bandwidth per service class of business customers
3.200.000
2.800.000
Mbit/s
2.400.000
2.000.000
Data bandwidth
1.600.000
1.200.000
800.000
400.000
Voice bandwidth
0
Y1
Y3
Y5
Y7
Y9
Year
June 2007
slide 25
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Typical planning results
Revenue per service type for consumer customers
28e+07
24e+07
20e+07
US $
Data services
16e+07
12e+07
8e+07
UMTS voice
4e+07
GSM voice
0e+07
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Year
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 26
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Network NPV with/without Terminal values
UMTS Scenario
22e+08
20e+08
18e+08
16e+08
NPV Zero
(
Terminal
Value
)
US$
14e+08
12e+08
10e+08
NPV
(EBITDA
Multiplier
=5)
8e+08
6e+08
NPV
(Perpetuity
Rate)
4e+08
2e+08
0e+08
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Year
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 27
Network Planning Tools
Example of Business Migration to 3G
Lessons to care
• Modeling of the migration of 2G to 3G requires careful modeling
of the two architectures at the same time
• Dimensioning of 3G networks imply a network redesign due to
high speed services
• 3G networks require important CAPEX investments during first
years
• New services introduction strategy is fundamental to benefit from
the new revenues of data services
• Business profitability is positive after initial years as well as
strategic positioning in competition
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 28
Network Planning Tools
Summary Remarks
• Ensure proper modeling of key techno-economical
factors
• Focus on multiple customers, multiple services domains
• Take benefit of all economies of scale in the evolution
towards convergence
• High number of alternatives require the use of powerful
and professional tools
June 2007
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Supporting Tools - O.G.S.
slide 29